Arroyo -115 

closed +100. 

Saturday in Sac-Town for the UFC and we’ll get a comprehensive look at many mixed martial artists from Team Alpha Male as well Aspen Ladd will who trains just outside Sacramento. So the house will be vested on the Alpha Male fighters and Ol’ Uncle Louis will be looking for value as always within this fight card.

As is the case these last couple years we’ll begin with my VSiN article published earlier in the week on ‘Point Spread Weekly’ followed by updated comments (just as predicted in my main event breakdown) based on weigh-in results.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 7-10-19 Point Spread Weekly—

Last Week’s UFC 239 could not have been a more exciting action-packed fight card, unfortunately my release of Holly Holm to make it a competitive fight was wrong. Betting underdogs of +350 or better will result in losses on occasion but the important thing to remember is to remain committed to the process of uncovering value then gaining the best of the number in any sporting event. That’s always my plan and I’ll continue with an approach that is proven.

Sacramento, California hosts this week’s UFC on ESPN +13. The fight card takes a bit of a theme with Northern California’s ‘Alpha Male’ gym fighters sprinkled throughout the slate so understanding which fights those are (and the styles of each participant) will be helpful in determining potential advantage in those fights.

Aspen Ladd -165 vs. Germaine De Randomie +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Main Event

I’ll begin by stating how difficult it is to try to release value laden positions on Saturday fights by Tuesday noon deadlines! As a UFC handicapper, I strive to uncover value in underdogs while not being afraid to pull the trigger on any value laden position provided my research is comprehensive and the price earns market advantage.

Market advantage in this Main Event is currently nebulous as there are weight concerns to be aware of with each fighter. De Randomie, who at thirty-five years old is a large lady is dropping from Featherweight (145lbs.) to compete again at Bantamweight for this fight.

Ladd on her part has had past fights where she has looked very shaky up to and throughout the weigh-in process and though she looked fine on the scales in her last fight, her performance was less than dominant albeit against a live opponent. Saturday night, De Randomie will be a certain step up in class for the twenty-four-year-old Ladd and her chances for a victory become more reasonable if De Randomie is all she’s fighting and not the scale also.

So, Friday weigh-ins become critical in grasping every angle to this fight but here’s what I see playing out.

This is a Striker (De Randomie) vs. Grappler (Ladd) battle. De Randomie has proven difficult to take down and as long as she can keep this fight upright and, on the feet, she’ll be able to employ deft movement and kicks to maintain her spacing so she may liberate Ladd with precision punching. I see little chance of De Randomie finishing Ladd (of course pending some form of horrible weight cut) as her path to victory will rely on her movement and volumes if not overly powerful striking.

Ladd who trains in nearby Folsom, California based MMAGold gym, is not as skilled at striking effectiveness. She is the shorter fighter who will give up five inches of reach to her opponent and a prolonged stand up striking battle is the last thing she can allow this fight to become. Ladd, more a boxer brawler on the feet does have a purple belt in BJJ so her advantage must be and will be to grope De Randomie, drag her to the floor, gain top position and reign devastation on the Duchess.

My key to this fight is conditioning and the fact that is it’s scheduled for five rounds. De Randomie has been a full five recently (Holy Holm) and in a pitter patter stand-up striking affair we know she can survive twenty-five but with an unrelenting pressure fighter eleven years her younger I have my doubts about her ability to maintain distance.

Ladd on her part, must not allow De Randomie that critical space and distance. She must be unrelenting in making this a brawl only as long as it takes her to close distance then smother the taller woman and do it from the first bell until her smothering swarming pressure drains the energy and will from the thirty-five-year-old striker.

In order to place herself among the UFC woman’s Bantamweight elite, Ladd must arrive in perfect condition and make weight early in the process Friday morning so she can rehydrate and prepare to gruel for twenty-five minutes or fewer.

Monitoring

Mirsad Bectic -155 vs. Josh Emmett +135

Here the Alpha Male member Emmett is the underdog. He opened +155 so some love is arriving on the durable, wrestling based Emmett but he’s in there with a true killer. Emmett was actually a bit lucky in his most recent fight against Michael Johnson and preceding that was a devastating loss that Bectic has the pure punching power to remind him of. I may be fading Emmett here but will wait until there is more compression on Bectic before I release him.

Hall -110 vs. Elkins -110

Hall is a highly talented BJJ grappler and possibly the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC. Hall has nothing if he can’t fight on the floor and I don’t believe he’ll be able to manipulate Elkins to the matt unless Elkins hammers him there.

I am surprised at this price as I do believe Elkins to be the more well-rounded, durable, tougher fighter and he’s also a team Alpha Male member who’ll fighting in front of his homies. The flow of dough to Hall may be because Elkins has dropped his last two but those were against fighters well more apt than Hall. Elkins is in a favorable spot to perform at his best Saturday.

Elkins -110

--updated 7-13-19 7:50am PT—

I was not whining when I wrote the main event breakdown in fact I called this weigh-in process to the ‘T’ if I don’t mind saying. Ladd looked as poor as any fighter I have witnessed on the scale yesterday. That said, she had a rough cut against Landsberg a few fights back and performed well. Youth and ignorance of the dangers of drastic weigh cutting surely escape her as she steps into what I feel is a set up fight designed to highlight a De Randomie vs. Nunes rematch scenario. Yep, that fight should draw and that’s how this organization rolls.

I look for Ladd to have more issues getting this fight to the floor than if she arrived fully hydrated and mentally ready to compete but after De Randomie’s warm up performance (last out against a wr4estler in Kaufmann) I feel that De Randomie has the experience and professionalism to go out tonight and keep this fight standing which is a key to her success.

WHILE Ladd was finishing her weak kneed Willy performance on the scale yesterday I released De Randomie +150. Hope you were paying attention as getting the best of the number is as important as anything in Profitable Sports Gaming.

I also like the prop “Fight starts Round 3” -145

Bectic -155 vs. Emmett +145

Both guys scare me. Bectic is a bit chinny and I worry about his ability to push hard for a full fifteen. Emmett for his part has the crowd and a recent back pocket knockout of MJ providing him momentum here but I still view him as potentially fragile off that devastating beat down he took from Stephens two back. Monitoring this one still…

Darren Elkins will have his hands full with this Ryan Hall. Hall who resembles more a male librarian than UFC stalwart is a highly skilled BJJ artist and he uses his nerdiness to allow opponents to underestimate him. Elkins best not, as we released him Darren -110 Wednesday (see above).

Mangy Mutt alert

Roberson -210 vs. Turman +200

Roberson, only 28 will hold advantage on the feet but we’ve not seen him navigate the ground. I believe he’ll be exposed there if only Turman can manage to maul him to the mat. Where this fight takes place is critical to who gets their hand lifted.

Turman +200 (half)

Last cuts and potential Twitter adds: Ferreira +140, Van Buren +100, Martinez +140 (fntsy sports released)

Michaud +515 (half)

Twitter release PFL

I don't usually play events other than UFC unless I feel there is a compelling reason. Michaud +515 was huge over reaction to his loss earlier in the Tournament to Sy. 

Good Morning Fight Enthusiasts. This UFC 239 slate is loaded with talent but it’s also rife with heavily favored matchups. While the names are marquee the matchups quite honestly are not and that will affect the betting approach to the card. Just because the event is large does not mean the betting conditions are favorable so I’ll play a few releases already mentioned this week and a couple others will be made official below after my VSiN breakdown this week then my abbreviated synopsis of the Nunes/Holm fight which is featured in today’s New York Post.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 7-3-19 Point Spread Weekly—

Saturday’s UFC 239 from Las Vegas, NV is a highly anticipated fight card with two five round Championship bouts and numerous other high-profile matchups on the slate. In today’s Insight the Octagon we’ll take a look at each Championship bout.

UFC Favorites in 2019 stand 137-79-2 (62.8%) so while investing in underdogs is a goal, I regard obtaining value as much more important (see last week’s Ngannou release at a paltry -220). Betting value together with fighters that (as I handicap them) are prepared to present their absolute best effort on fight night are releases I’ll ultimately side with.

Jon ‘Bones Jones -700 Champion vs. Tiago ‘Marreta’ Santos +500 Light Heavyweight Title (205lbs.)

We discussed Santos a few fights back when he came into Europe and starched a game Jan Blachowicz, a fight we were on the wrong end of. Santo’s has had three fights at the heavier Light Heavyweight class now and he’s finished all three opponents. Fighters cutting less weight I believe can hold advantage over fighters that aggressively cut and Santos is but one example of fighters whose power, explosion and the ability to take a shot IMPROVE once they move to a more natural weight class.

Santos is Capoeira based with strong Muay Thai but also has recently gained his black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He’s an ex-paratrooper for the Brazilian armed services who has explosive power who’s always moving forward and aggressively launching spinning kicks, damaging leg kicks and power hooks. Santos’ punches can be wide and he often holds that chin out there as he’s pumping power shots. Santos ability to win this fight rests with his ability to keep this a striking affair, one fought solely on the feet. Though he is a black belt in BJJ Santo in no way wants this fight to hit the mat as he’ll give away dynamic advantage if Jones takes him down.

Jon Jones is really the prototypical template for the perfect human fighter. A world class wrestling base, a black belt in Gaidojutsu and a blue belt in BJJ are his decorations but height and obtuse reach advantages with both legs and especially arms (eight-inch edge for this fight) laced with bounteous bad intention are Jones combat superiorities and he employs them well in improving on his title of the most lethal pound for pound fighter in history.

The Jon Jones we see Saturday will be the most devastating Jones we’ve seen to date as the burdensome issues of his past and the affect they had on his ability to fight on any regular basis are gone.  Jones, who has fought three times in the last seven months has had the time to concentrate solely on his profession which I view as bad news for Santos.

There is a clear path to victory for Santos but Jones must contribute. Should Jones decide to stand and bang with ‘the Sledgehammer’ choosing to defeat him at his own game then it is possible Santos could touch Jones. But Jones is too smart to employ a strategy that would both give the challenger his most likely chance to compete as well affect Jones’ own ability to move forward into other highly lucrative opportunities.

Regarding this fight, Jones has said in interviews that he’ll relish Santo’s bringing the fight to him as this will allow him to use movement and his lethal striking/kicking game to counterpunch Santos as he charges forward but that’s only the set up.

It’s at this point where this fight turns as Jones will clasp onto the incoming Santos then force him to the floor for a comprehensive flogging. Santos on his part will make the takedowns easier by becoming frustrated at Jones tactics then choosing to rush inward to engage. Jones protect his body and his future earnings by utilizing intelligence and the world class wrestling Ace he holds up his sleeve.

Jones opened -850 and current pricing will force me to peruse other options in this fight. Jones ‘inside the distance’ or ‘Jones via submission’ seem very possible and could well pay a more valuable price…. but those props are not released until later this week.

Amanda Nunes -350 Champion vs. Holly Holm +275 Women’s Bantamweight Title (135lbs.)

‘Styles make fights’ as I learned from the late great Angelo Dundee and this fight cannot be handicapped effectively by looking at each of these fighter’s recent records which is how it appears the makers lined this bout.

Nunes is a beast (The Lioness) as she holds titles in the Women’s Featherweight (145lbs.) and the Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) divisions. Nunes is big, strong powerful and is versed in BJJ, Capoeira, Judo and Boxing. Nunes is undefeated in her last eight fights dating back to 2015.

In her last fight Nunes knocked out previously untouchable Cris Cyborg a fighter who had not lost in fourteen years and she did it at 145lbs which is up a weight class from her desired 135lbs ideal. Saturday, she returns to the Bantamweight division and I do wonder if she’ll struggle with the weight which is a something we’ll learn once the weigh-ins are complete Friday am.

Nunes is an extremely aggressive fighter who works off a powerful hydraulic jab. She is versed everywhere and, in this fight, it will be on the mat where Nunes will hold advantage but the question is will she use the ground to her benefit or will she and has she become intoxicated with her power? I hate to say it but I don’t trust Nunes and many of the Brazilian based fighters to be over equip with fight intelligence.

Nunes is a force to deal with but when walking down opponents she often throws wide telegraphing ‘Sunday Shots’ (another Dundee term) and forges forward too often with her hands cocked at her waist and her face held high and mighty.

Holly Holm is relatively one dimensional as she is expertly equipped at striking and kickboxing yet she can boast of little to no ground game so it is critical that she keep this fight standing in order to have any chance at winning.

I believe she’ll get help from Nunes here as I do believe Nunes is going to try to finish Holm as opposed to take the path Jones will, to fight the smart fight.  Also, I believe off that dominant performance against Cyborg that the adage “fat cats don’t hunt” may come into play here for Nunes now holds two belts and has been the belle of the ball for months now since that win.

Holm has the ability to employ erratic movement with precision kicks and strikes. She can force the fight forward as well fight effectively via the counterstrike. Holm can and has fought five round championship bouts previously and it is my judgement that Holm will give Nunes all she wants Saturday.

Nunes opened-350 and it remains -350. I believe there will be plenty of parlay playing public pounding Nunes as we draw closer to this fight and while I am not ready to release Holm, I do feel this fight is mis-priced and I’ll surely have more to say after having the benefit of watching the weigh-ins Friday.

NY Post: Nunes vs. Holm 7-6-19

(you can see it’s quite abbreviated form above)

Amanda Nunes is the Women’s Featherweight (145lbs.) and Bantamweight (135lbs.) Champion. She is big, strong powerful and versed in BJJ, Capoeira, Judo and Boxing. Nunes is undefeated in her last eight fights.

Nunes knocked out previously untouchable Cris Cyborg who had not lost in fourteen years in her last outing and did it at 145lbs. Nunes returns to Bantamweight and I feel the lower weight could be a factor for her in this fight.

Nunes likes to work off a powerful jab. She is versed everywhere but it will be on the mat where Nunes will hold advantage.  The question is after her last win will she use the ground to her benefit or has she become intoxicated with her power striking?

Nunes is highly aggressive but when pressing opponents, she employs wide telegraphing ‘Sunday Shots’ while charging forward often with her hands cocked at her waist leading in with her face held high.

Holm is expertly equipped at striking/kickboxing yet she has only an adequate ground game so it’s important for her to keep this fight standing. Nunes, brimming with confidence (overconfidence perhaps) will come out aggressively looking to knock Holly’s head off which may play right into the hand of Holm the effective counterstriker.

Holm must utilize her experience, athleticism, and constant movement with precision counter striking to frustrate Nunes and force her into mistakes. Holm’s fought five round championships previously and it’s my judgement that Holm will beat Nunes in a five round decision.

Holm +450 (half)         Over 4.5 Rounds +120 (1u)

--Updated 7-6-19 7:30am PT—

Holly Holm’s price has dropped since this submission but current +350 still worthy of a half unit

Yadong -210 vs. Perez +190

Perez off a loss to Stammen is a wily UFC vet with a solid gym and wrestling base. Song travels out of the eastern hemisphere to fight for the first time in Vegas no less. This Chinese fighter is going to be a star but tonight I believe he earns his PhD. In MMA.

Perez +190

(released+200  FNTSYSports Network 7-3-19)

Shahbazyan -570 vs. Marshman +480

Another young talent being thrust into the mainstream here and it could be just a bit quick for the Californian. Marshman is strictly a gatekeeper but he’s faced far superior competition and has a vast experience edge besides being a veteran of the Military in Wales. We’ll get Marshman’s best.

Marshman +480 (half)

All week long I have voiced a strong opinion on both Luke Rockhold -230 and Ben Askren -210 but have not officially committed to either. I’ve lost some value on the Rockhold price by waiting and Asken’s price has been stagnant all week much to my delight. I’ll use these two together in a rare parlay playing Uncle Louie puke for one unit which will return +112.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

I attended the CWS Final series this week therefore I was unable to post a normal Main Event breakdown for VSiN instead opting to offer the below short synopsis of that fight. I’ll add a couple other releases I feel offer value from this Minneapolis fight card in the update section below.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 6-29-19 VSiN daily newsletter—

Francis Ngannou -210 vs. Junior dos Santos +190 (westgate) Heavyweight Main Event

Junior dos Santos is a grizzled former Champion who’s realized a career resurgence by utilizing movement, precision striking and fight IQ to win his last three fights.  While he’s shown tremendous discipline in those fights (against less than top heavyweight talent) it’s my judgment that fight plans go out the window once Junior gets popped. Dos Santos must maintain distance and try to take Ngannou deep into this fight if he is to have any chance of winning. If Junior at any time engages Ngannou in a stand-up battle, he’ll be finished.

Francis Ngannou is a top talent in the Heavyweight division. He’ll be the younger, stronger, faster and more powerful fighter in the Octagon Saturday. He possesses profuse power especially in his right hand and he will come straight to Junior to engage. Ngannou’s trained (his last two fights) extensively in conjunction with the UFC at their performance institute as they believe an investment in this man’s future is a worthy one as do I. 126

Ngannou’s shown great improvement on his conditioning and take down defense, issues for him in the past and Saturday he’ll dominate the older ex-Champion in impressive fashion to solidify his position as the top Heavyweight contender in the UFC. I believe Ngannou should be priced at least -350 for this bout so I regard current pricing as a value.

Ngannou -210

--updated 6-29-19 9am PT—

Menifield -265 vs. Craig +245

Menifield is an undefeated KO artist and Craig is an awkward submission specialist. This is the don’t judge the book by the cover fight puckheads.

Fight starts Rd2 -120 (half)

Roberts -275 vs. Pichel +250

Pichel opened a +165 hound in this fight and the money has flowed in mass on the younger, longer, striking based Roberts. While it’s unwise to settle in regularly with aged fighters in this instance Pichel’s experience and ground fighting advantage makes him a substantial step up in competition for the twenty-four-year-old Roberts. This may be the fight where Roberts earns his PhD. In MMA?

Pichel +250

Maia -170 vs. Martin +160

There’s a substantial difference in class of fighter here. Martin is a solid fighter but Maia is a legit top five in the division.

Maia Submission +150

Benavidez -145 vs. Formiga +135

Two fighters with career paths going in separate directions here. I still feel Joe can keep this upright and outbox the Brazilian but I’ll pass for now and see where this price goes….

--updated 6:15pm PT--

Joe -115 currently...I'll bite as I see UFC wanting Joe vs Henry rematch in future and any decision here seems steeped to the company man. Just sayin

Benavidez -115

I’m travelling fight fans and will be unable to watch this fight card which is maybe the first time this has happened in like five years. Anyway, I’ll be enjoying Omaha nightlight and when uncle Louie hits the big O believe me people….there’s nightlife!

Here’s my releases for this card that I issued Wednesday on Fntsy Sports network w Gabriel Morrency.

Aguilar -140

(Aguilar dropping….patience gets you lowest price possible)

Ewell +100

Moicano/Zombie starts 4 +100

All halves

Toe to toe in Chi-ca-go today fight Enthusiasts as UFC 238 is stacked with great fights and mangy mutts. I offered readers a pretty poor performance last week so I am happy to be able to turn this around quickly and offer the following potential profitable pups.

We’ll start with the Main event breakdown published Wednesday on VSiN’s PSW.  I’ll give a shout out to the VSiN crew for allowing me the platform for my UFC thoughts and the unexpected residual I have gained from submitting these breakdowns so early each week. Submitting fight breakdowns on Tuesday prior to Saturday events has been a positive practice though it is difficult formulating final thoughts without having viewed the weigh-ins.

Of course when playing pooches in the UFC (and in most any sports) it’s a good practice to wait until the last moment to wager in order to capture every cent of value on underdogs.  Capturing the best of the number in any gaming endeavor is as critical to a bettor’s success as anything else they may do.  I strive to obtain value in every release made.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 6-5-19 Point Spread Weekly—

UFC 238 comes live from Chicago, IL. Saturday with two title fights, a major Lightweight battle (Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone) and numerous other highly competitive match-ups. Fight fans are sure to enjoy the combat as there is diverse talent scattered throughout the card ranging from 115lb. female fatales to 265lb. Heavyweight ho-downs.

Marlon Moraes -120 vs. Henry Cejudo +100 Bantamweight Title Fight (135lbs.)

For this MMA enthusiast Saturday’s main event is the most anticipated confrontation of the year. Not only are these two world class competitors but they each bring a diverse and highly effective fighting arsenal into the Octagon for this title fight.

Henry Cejudo is THE most adroit and capable wrestler on the UFC roster. He is unusually competitive and without question is a pure bottom line winner. The dominant mindset established by his Olympic wrestling capability/success is the basis for vast improvements in his boxing/striking. He is mentally driven to excel as proven by his past accomplishments. Cejudo has displayed the quickness, speed and agility to dominate at Flyweight (125lbs.) so it will be most interesting to determine if he can transfer those traits into advantage despite moving up ten pounds to compete for this Bantamweight title. 

Kryptonite to the BJJ specialized fighter is world class wrestling, Cejudo in my judgement MUST find a way to crowd, smother and eventually clinch/grope/wrestle Moraes. He must not fall into the belief that his striking has come so far (because of the impressive result against Dillashaw) that he will be able to stand with Moraes and compete effectively in this fight which would be a huge mistake because his striking has not come THAT far!

Both men rely heavily on their legs in fights, for Cejudo he utilizes his legs to impede/trip opponents while in the clinch allowing him to slam the competitor on the floor. Once Henry gets most opponents to the floor he dominates and it’s in his best interest to make this a wrestling match at all costs. Cejudo has the Championship mindset, the wrestling base and speed/quickness but he moves up in weight and fights a legitimate Championship caliber opponent.

Marlon Moraes is a destructive fighting force highly decorated with black belts in Muay Thai (striking) and BJJ which is more a grappling ground expertise. Moraes upon his arrival to the UFC has fought and dominated only top-rated foes in the Bantamweight division. In each fight he has looked absolutely dominant (Moraes actually lost a split decision to Rafael Assuncao in his UFC debut then in his last fight gained revenge by submitting the perennial Bantamweight contender).

Moraes use of legs involves destructive blunt force trauma as he utilizes precision placed leg, body and head kicks to injure opponents while mixing powerful hand/elbow striking. His feinting and head movement allow him to confound and instill hesitation into opponents which is the prelude to those unrelenting strikes arriving from any angle and level.

In a recent fight, Kevin Lee who stepped up in weight to fight Rafael Dos Anjos was unable to bring appropriate energy into the championship rounds and it was because he had a difficult time managing the adjusted weight and fighting a man with more mass.

I believe Cejudo just like Lee will toil, not as much by fighting at the higher weight but by competing against a guy that has fought against other legitimate 135ers (we know these guys weigh about 153-155lbs. by the time they ring the bell) and dominated.

Moraes has been yearning for this chance his whole career. He’ll have size, reach and power advantages as well the advantage of training in the same camp as wrestling great Frankie Edgar & Co. where he can work on being wrestled daily.

Moraes opened -175 for this fight in faraway places and Cejudo money has dropped that price to -120. I mentioned on a recent appearance of “The Edge’ with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel that Moraes (at the time -115) was an absolute release so I’ll remain committed to Moraes.

Moraes -120

Valentina Shevchenko -1500 vs. Jessica Eye +850 Woman’s Flyweight title (125lbs.)

Nothing exemplifies how shallow the talent is in each of the Women’s divisions of the UFC like the spread on this fight. Shevchenko will hold this title as long as she wants to for she’s far superior in this weight class to anyone. She’s technically sound, fast and can fight for five hours let alone five rounds but she packs little power and must impose her dominance via time and volume not power and might.

Pass

I’ll have further breakdown’s and releases later in the week especially an opinion on the Ferguson -150 vs. Cerrone +130 bout on GambLou.com.

Last week Ilir Latifi, Volkan Oezdemir’s opponent had to pull out of the fight via injury so we’ll plan on attacking this main event knowing Moraes -120 is a value opportunity.

Good Luck to all and Thank You for reading

--updated 6-8-19 8am PT—

Moraes is now -135 in the main event. Henry seems to be highly intense based on the weigh-ins and face offs. The key to this fight is Moraes ability to keep the fight standing and neutralize Henry’s trips, taps and takedown attempts. This will be a super fight. Many pundits feel this is an under 3.5 rounds type fight but I feel just the opposite. I believe it takes Marlon into the fourth or fifth round to display an edge in precision/sharpness which will allow him to take advantage of the extra weight Henry will be toting for this bout and eventually catch him with something forceful once Cejudo begins to feel the effects of fighting a man that is accustomed to fighting men weighing one hundred and fifty pounds on a regular basis.

Ferguson -145 vs. Cerrone +135

Pressure, this fight will be determined by pressure. Can Tony apply it and how will Cowboy deal with it. I say that Ferguson has all the loose ‘nuts and bolts’ to be legit crazy in the Octagon. That scares rational folk and Cowboy has never fared well against aggressive forward pressing maniacs. Ferguson’s plan is to apply pressure and come at the Cowboy with volume strikes from every angle.

Cowboy’s plan I believe will be to try to catch Tony coming in via the counter strike and take advantage of a Ferguson weakness which can be strike defense as the guy sometimes sells out to press his offensive barrage. This plan may be effective but it is also passive. I believe this is a tough spot for Cerrone who is a valiant courageous fighter but will eventually succumb to the unrelenting pressure from Ferguson. Ferguson opened -180 for this bout which I view as a more accurate depiction of his talent.

Ferguson -145

Grasso -115 vs. Kowalkiewicz +105

Value play here. Kowalkiewicz opened -195 here and granted that may be a tough aggressive but I do view her as the more complete fighter and therefore worthy -150 or so chalk. Grasso backers have pounded the number down to pick-em. Grasso is an improving fighter with gaping areas of improvement and Karolina is a fighter on the down side of her career but the level of experience, skill and ability she possesses point me to the Pole.

Kowalkiewicz +105

This UFC card from Stockholm is well timed as the prelims kick off at 7am PT with main event dropping about noon or so PT. This allows for a concentrated fight effort backed up by a passionate game three in St. Louis between he Blues and the Bruins.

My ‘Point Spread Weekly’ article is below and the Oezdemir -115 release within it has been scratched doe to Ilir Latifi being unable to make the fight because of a back issue. Unfortunate so I’ll simply update my article and add a couple of value releases on fighters who I believe will show up poised to perform.

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 5-29--19 Point Spread Weekly—

The UFC visits Stockholm Sweden this week with an early Saturday matinee for fight fans viewing from the PST. They’ll kick off the prelims at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 10am PT.

The final three fights on this Stockholm card feature Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.) matchups which will go a long way in determining pecking order in a weight class depraved of any viable threat to Champion Jon Jones. I’ll briefly break down each of these three fights, the first of which will go off around 11:15am PT.

Alexander Gustafsson -300 vs. Anthony Smith +240 Light Heavyweight Main Event

Each of these men went down to defeat against Champion Jones in their last fight. Gustafsson has faced the far superior level of competition. He is a boxing-based fighter with an effective kicking arsenal and excels in the clinch where he can use his knees to inflict damage. Gus wants to employ distance so he may effectively use his length to precision strike opponents’ legs, body and head. He fights at home and will look to make a statement regarding his top ranking in hierarchy of this division come Saturday AM.

Smith is also a boxing striking based fighter who uses less movement and more pressure to unleash his power punching. Smith’s footwork and quickness are detriments honestly as well as his defense. Although he looked to perplex Champion Jones in his last outing it’s my belief that sometimes when two fight, the competition can come off awkward and ugly as that fight did. 

Gustafsson is a worthy chalk here but I don’t chase -300 chalk. I’ll look for props/rounds lines when they’re released for this fight as I believe it probable that Gus finishes Smith Saturday.

Volkan Oezdemir -115 vs. Ilir Latifi Light Heavyweight Co Main event

Two Swiss fighters who’ve trained extensively in the past face one another to determine who steps up in this division and who falls back into the mosh pit.

Latifi is appropriately nicknamed ‘the Sledgehammer’ as he is stocky, quick, explosive and ultra-powerful relying on destructive roundhouse punching early in fights. He has a solid wrestling base which allows him to keep his fights standing where he can pressure opponents to get inside their reach in order to deliver punishment from the inside. In this fight I could see Latifi trying to work Oezdemir to the ground because Latifi may find the stand-up challenging against this opponent. Latifi can also counter well but his biggest concern is his ability to fight effectively past six/seven difficult minutes as his size requires massive amounts of energy use and his history shows that he tends to wear down quickly with his style of explosive offensive output.

Oezdemir is five years the younger man which provides him some advantage numerically from the start. He’s also the taller, longer fighter versed in BJJ but who wants to use his kickboxing background to batter opponents and finish them.

Oezdemir who I believe is a top five fighter in this division impressed me in his last outing against up and coming Dom Reyes losing a split decision that could have gone either way in my judgement. He’ll be finitely focused on getting back into the win column after that last outcome which he feels he won.

Oezdemir faces a stylistically ‘made’ opponent for his skills as evidenced in his Opening price of -175 which I handicapped as spot on. A steady flow of Latifi money has compressed that line to its current -115 creating great value on Oezdemir.

Oezdemir -115

Racik -220 vs. Manuwa +180

Racik is twelve years younger, four inches taller and will look to knock out the more experienced Englishman in this fight. Manuwa has power but unfortunately he telegraphs his ‘Sunday shots’ and has an extremely short fuse (cardio). If he is to win this fight, he must immediately take this fight to Racik and engage him from the inside. This will allow Manuwa to fight without threat of Racik being able to use distance to unleash his power as well allow Manuwa to unleash his damage up close and personal.

Racik is taking a big step up class in this fight and while he holds some physical advantages he has not been really tested by a top talent at Light Heavyweight and a desperate Manuwa trying to retain his top ranking and fight credibility in the division will be a great test for the young Serbian.

Racik opened -285 and I tend to think Manuwa is live in this spot but this line may creep back up so let’s monitor it pending weigh-ins and further developments later this week.

--updated 5-31-19 11:15am PT—

A UFC card in the early AM makes for a happy Uncle Louie understanding the Stanley Cup Hockey is at a level where nothing keeps me from watching every second…so it’s fisticuffs in the morning and passion that night. Sounds like my marriage lol.

Gustafsson -300 vs. Smith +280

There’s little to add other than I have never been impressed with Smith as a martial artist. He’s long on heart and guts then short on everything else required to be world class. I feel strongly enough about Gus to use him in the first leg of a parlay….

Hadzovic -160 vs. Giagos +140

Value comes in all ways shapes and forms and in this fight Giagos who opened +195 has been bet down to +150. Giagos will need to get this fight to the ground to control the Bosnian bomber Hadzovic who’s last five results have impressed me in that he has tussles with top end grapples like Patrick and Held and done reasonably well against each. Hadzovic’s striking will be far more effective against Giagos than will Giagos ground game. Hadzovic opened -275 and now he is in the strike range.

Gustafsson -300/Hadzovic -160 parlay (+118)

Racik -200 vs. Manuwa +180

This line has compressed since early week with support incoming on Manuwa. I do like Jimi here but old, slowing fighters with fragile chin’s scare the hail out of me. That said, Racik is unathletic, has fought poorly calibrated UFC talent and is stepping way up in class against a fighter that has been in with the top fighting talent in the division.  Racik’s power is negligible and Manuwa’s anger is off the charts as he feels utterly disrespected. He may be right…

Manuwa +180 (half)

Clark -110 vs. Stosic +100

Again, value. Stosic is the shorter more deliberate striking talent while Clark has athleticism, unorthodox striking and a porcelain chin. Stosic opened -265 for this fight and the Euro’s must be clamoring to claim Clark for Stosic is now +100. I’ll take the stoic Serbian to pressure Clark unrelentingly and eventually touch him on the teeth.

Stosic +100

Jo -135 vs. Teymur +125

Teymur’s brother David is a legitimate UFC fighter. This Teymur is on the card because it is in Sweden. He’s very short for Lightweight and will be giving away height, reach and age against the South Korean ship in Jo who is making his UFC debut. Teymur has no more motivation than to win this fight in front of his hommies but other than heart and five minutes of fight he has nothing that tells me he should even be in the UFC. Meanwhile this kid Jo has been getting groomed for his big chance for months and it’s my opinion that the UFC will bolster itself in its effort to enhance its brand in the Orient by matching this young talent up with a set up situation…. that’s exactly how I see this fight.

Jo -135