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Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 262 Oliveira vs. Chandler. What a fight night we have in front of us.
First, I’d like to say how tickled I am to see the tsunami of people in Las Vegas. Las Vegas and its inhabitants have been as welcoming to me as have the folks in Phoenix over these last decades. Desert living is nothing to underestimate people provided you got your family and a ‘busload of faith’ to get by.
Atypical of most of my Saturday UFC offerings is that today there will be some six to eight wagers with capital outlay exceeding what is standard for most usual weeks. I do this today only because it’s my opinion that the card is offering opportunity that form of opportunity.
The ‘Insight the Octagon’ piece from this week’s VSiN magazine Point Spread Weekly is below with updated releases listed following.
All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00. I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year. Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.
--originally published 5-12-21 Point Spread Weekly--
Saturday’s UFC 262 will be held in front of a packed arena in Houston’s Toyota Center. The fight card features a diverse set of athletes from every corner of the globe who arrive expertly trained in mixed martial arts. In fighter interviews this week many of the competitors voiced excitement to be fighting once again in front of fans.
Twelve bouts are scheduled as of this publication with early preliminary action beginning at 3:30pm PT.
Last week Marina Rodriguez controlled Michelle Waterson from bell to bell in a fight where the advantages were clearly on Rodriguez’ side based on her size and the fact that these women competed at 125lbs. Geoff Neal, my parlay position fared much worse however as he looked lethargic, sluggish and listless in his bout.
We have since discovered that Neal had to drop thirty-seven pounds in order to make weight for this bout. This is material information that would have contributed to my handicapping this fight as I would have never ventured Neal’s direction knowing this. He’d even hidden his health information from his team/camp which is not only unintelligent it’s dangerous.
Insight the Octagon 2021: 10-7 +3.15u off last week’s 1-1 break even result.
Charles Oliveira -125 vs. Michael Chandler +105 Lightweight (155lbs.) Championship
What’s most interesting about this fight is that it is the third ranked Oliveira facing fourth ranked Chandler as opposed to number one ranked Dustin Poirier facing second ranked Justin Gaethje.
Poirier chose to overlook a title bout with Gaethje in order to make the Conor McGregor trilogy payday which helps clarify why Oliveira is in the fight but how Chandler got in ahead of Justin Gaethje seems unjust.
Chandler arrives fresh off the drubbing of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut. What has not been publicized much is the extreme amount of quarantine etc. Hooker had to perform in order to make that bout. Further, his decision not to pressure Chandler and in fact retreat insured his doom for Chandler, if allowed to pressure and back opponents up is one tough fighter to beat.
Chandler’s basis is world class D1 college wrestling so he’s an unrelenting forward pressure fighter who over the course of his twenty-seven professional fights has learned how to compliment his wrestling with power striking as we witnessed against Hooker.
Chandler’s only UFC bout was Hooker as he was in the Bellator organization prior. As magnificent as Chandler looked in that bout, I believe there’s a healthy dose of recency flavoring this betting line based on that Hooker result. That said, Chandler’s pressure wrestling, his explosive athleticism and his natural striking power make him a serious threat especially early in this bout.
Oliveira enters the octagon Saturday the younger man by four years. He’s two inches taller than Chandler and will sport arm/leg reach advantages of three inches each. Oliveira’s fight foundation is his third-degree black belt in BJJ. Oliveira himself is most dangerous when pressing opponents backward and inflicting damage upon them.
Oliveira not only can compete with Chandler on the mat he can compete with anyone at 155lbs. there. Oliveira’s striking has improved drastically over the course of his career as well his ability to slip strikes and defend. The high level of world class opponents he’s faced force me to believe this fight will be one of the top competitions this year in the UFC.
Oliveira opened -150 and Chandler action has dropped the price to Oliveira -125 which in my view offers opportunity as I regard him more a favorite over Chandler than the opening line did.
In this championship fight Oliveira MUST navigate the first five minutes of the Chandler firestorm as Chandler’s finished opponents seventeen times in his career and of those thirteen were in the first round.
Provided Oliveira can compete into the second round and beyond I believe his confidence will grow as will his ability to walk Chandler backwards. In the later rounds Chandler’s effectiveness explosion and effectiveness wane and it’s late in the fight where Oliveira’s offensive diversity coupled with his physical size/length will begin to take over this bout.
One last note: Oliveira has lived in Houston since his arrival into the U.S. so support from the local crowd will be vigorous.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -155
Lean Over +135Just a year ago
Beniel Dariush -170 vs. Tony Ferguson +150 Lightweight co main event
Ferguson, now thirty-seven years old was number one ranked, undefeated in his last twelve bouts and awaiting a showdown with Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, his drubbing at the hands of Justin Gaethje changed the course of his career dynamically.
As I’d predicted then Gaethje laid the hammer on Ferguson and beat him in comprehensive fashion until the referee stopped the fight in the fifth round but not before Gaethje had beaten the breaks and the last remaining fertile years of his career out of Ferguson.
Ferguson then took a fight against Charles Oliveira last December and was beaten soundly in a five-round decision. We’ve witnessed older athlete’s (Welterweight Tyron Woodley for one) fall off the cliff when it comes to the end of a fight career and with a loss Saturday, we may regard Ferguson in similar light.
Ferguson will show up to this bout desperate to regain his lost momentum. Factors in his favor include a slight height advantage with a four-inch reach advantage so it’s logical that Tony works to keep this fight standing for he was exposed on the ground in his last fight and in this one faces a fighter of similar ground capability in Dariush.
Ferguson lands a whopping 5.5 significant strikes per minute but he often chooses to exchange too willingly as evidenced by the fact that he receives four significant strikes per minute in return. Ferguson’s fate will lie in his ability to keep this fight a striking battle.
Beniel Dariush has won four of his last six bouts via finish and he’s done that against top competition in the division. Dariush owns a black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ so he is dangerous anywhere a fight goes and can finish opponents via submission or strikes. Of his twenty wins thirteen have been via finish.
This fight may come down to Dariush’s ability to execute the Oliveira plan and drag Ferguson to the floor for a flogging so a key factor will be Dariush’s pedestrian take down effectiveness (32%) against Ferguson’s take down defense (70%).
In the end I believe the Dariush youth and momentum work in his favor yet I have a difficult time believing that he’ll be able to manage Ferguson to the floor and for that reason I’ll choose to pass on this co main event for now.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -170
Jacare’ Souza -120 vs. Andre Muniz +100 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Brazilian Jacare’ Souza was one of the most efficient submission specialists of his era but he’s now forty-one years old and a shell of his former fighting self.
Whether it be Cowboy Cerrone, Daniel Cormier, Stipe Miocic, Tyron Woodley or in this case Souza, examples in the fight game of fighters unable to understand when their game is gone riddles the landscape and has since hand-to-hand competition began.
There are very few Rocky Marciano’s or Khabib Nurmagomedov’s out there which is a crying shame for it is my judgement that Souza is going to get waxed in this match-up.
Jacare’s still capable on the mat but standing he is a plodding, deliberate, telegraphing striker who is unable to evade strike nor throw with any quickness, velocity or pop.
In this fight Jacare’ must sell out to engage his countryman Muniz inside the pocket and in close quarters to clasp, clinch and drag him to the floor if he is to have any chance at competing in this bout. From the floor it’s possible Jacare’ can use intelligence and guile to even the playing field with his opponent.
Muniz is ten years the younger combatant, he’s a southpaw who’s an inch taller than Jacare’. He’ll own a 6” reach advantage with arms, 2” advantage with his legs and he's 2-0 in the UFC and 6-0 in his last six fights.
Muniz will want to manage distance and keep the singular dimensioned Souza on the outside where kicks, strikes and elbows are most effective. Should Jacare’ manage to get this fight to the floor the larger, younger, BJJ black belt Muniz should be able to compete with the wily grizzled veteran long enough to get the fight back standing where Muniz’s physicality will be on display.
Needless to say, a Jacare’ pelt on his mantle would be a dynamic accomplishment for Muniz and he’s motivated to advance his career with a win of any form over a legend in Jacare’ Souza Saturday night.
Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -110
Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading
--updated 5-15-21 7:49am PT--
Oliveira- 130 vs. Chandler +110
Little to add here. It is now time to watch, learn and enjoy. Fight Enthusiasts, when I was your age, we got two to four of these type marquee fights per year maybe with the slime that is now boxing. Now we get up to 15 bouts some 44 +/- weeks per year. Thankful.
Over 2.5 +160
released earlier this week
Dariush -155 vs. Ferguson +135
The Dariush demeanor all week coupled with his tussle with the triple beam makes me believe that Ferguson just may got out and slather Dariush with strikes. If Dariush uses pride and decides to ‘go crazy like Tony’ as he has stated, he may get knocked out. I’ll be patient with this one and see if Tony’s price ascends and will update the site accordingly.
Ferguson +135 or better
Chookagain -130 vs. Araujo +115
In almost each release today we’re siding with the more seasoned, experienced and youthful fighter in the matchup. No difference here.
Chookagain via decision +105
Burgos -140 vs. Barboza +130
Fire. It’s my belief that Barboza’s natural power does not transfer to Featherweight nor does his cardio and chin at this stage of his career. Burgos packs power and plenty of crazy.
Schnell -160 vs. Bontorin +145
I really liked Schnell here but my respected associate Matthew Holt had released Bontorin on the ESPN ‘Behind the Bets’ podcast this week hosted by Doug Kezirian so I decided to sidestep that favorite. That is until I viewed the weigh-ins where Bontorin missed the limit by a pound after legitimately trying to make the weight. I will give the kid that. A least he was not blatantly cheating like Ferreira did last week. In any case, Schnell who is a local Houston fighter seems poised to pounce on a compromised Bontorin.
Souza -130 vs. Muniz +115
Fading all reptiles.
Grundy -120 vs. Vannata +100
Grundy’s the younger wrestling based natural 145’er. Vannata’s history has been one of inconsistency at the lightweight level and he drops to featherweight this late in his career which is a move many encouraged him to do years ago. I think Grundy’s poised to grind on a guy with little ground skill for fifteen minutes here.
Grundy opened -175 now he’s -120?
Shevchenko -120 vs. Lee +100
Shevchenko -190 at opening bell is currently -120. My first impression was that Lee would be desperate and focused to win a bout against anyone in the division. However, the UFC gave her a larger lefty with an arguable stand-up advantage. Lee must get this fight to the floor or she may fall to 0-4 in her last four and 2-6 in the UFC.