UFC 270 N'Gannou vs. Gane: les amis ne sont plus - 1/17/2022

For my final UFC 270 releases please access Gamblou's 'Bout Business Podcast available on all podcast platforms NOW! link below:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gamblous-bout-business-mma-podcast/id1582936446?i=1000548622756

Last Week’s UFC LV46 main event of Calvin Kattar vs. Giga Chikadze was a banger. One lesson learned from that bout is that in the UFC, every top ten ranked fighter is world class dangerous and it never pays to look past an opponent as Chikadze did to Kattar. In fact, the beatdown Kattar took at the hands of Max Holloway a year ago was the same pulverization he administered to Chikadze.

2022 starts with a 1 unit win as Insight the Octagon was bullish on that Kattar scrap exceeding 2.5 rounds. Our published price of -165 held great advantage over the closing line of over -200.

This week UFC 270 from Anaheim, CA features a fight for the heavyweight title between two dynamically gifted fighters and a Flyweight championship trilogy between a newly crowned, proud Mexican champion and a most dangerous Brazilian former champion driven to retain the title.

Champion Frances N’Gannou +140 vs. Cyril Gane -160 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title bout

The story between these two fighters is layered, lengthy and complex. Suffice it to say that there are several tangible and intangible aspects to this bout.

One tangible aspect is that both fighters have trained together under Gane’s current coach Fernand Lopez. No one understands N’Gannou as well as Lopez.

One intangible aspect of this bout is the friction that has occurred between champion N’Gannou and the UFC almost from the time he won the belt against Stipe Miocic to present.

As far as this bout is concerned…..

N’Gannou is a huge, sculpted man standing 6’4” and tipping the scales for his most recent bout at 263. He’s fit, profusely powerful and his plan of attack is simple. Find a way to touch the opponent. N’Gannou is a soft spoken and overly polite person but one must never confuse his meekness outside of the cage with his destructive powers within.

N’Gannou is a tremendous specimen who has risen from a cycle of poverty then eventually landed in Paris where he (Fernand Lopez) taught himself how to box. Today N’Gannou remains in the development stages of being a refined mixed martial artist which is scary because of the improvements sure to come.

Currently N’Gannou’s effectiveness revolves around explosive quickness coupled with power striking. To date, he is not very wrestling/grappling versed.

For N’Gannou any bout’s blueprint is simple, keep the fight standing, move forward in order to seek, touch and destroy.

Top ranked contender Cyril Gane is a polished mixed martial artist whose MMA foundation comes from the fact that he played soccer and basketball as a youth then developed a specialization in Muay Thai striking. Gane possesses natural athleticism and the leg strength he developed playing those two sports have gifted the 6’3” fighter with natural fluid, deft athleticism which translates into the ability to maneuver like a man fifty pounds lighter.

Gane competed at 247lbs. for his last bout which was a complete dismantling of Derrick Lewis so he’ll be the slighter man in the cage. From the opening bell Gane will be the athlete utilizing movement and evasion to gain a rhythm, score points and frustrate the more powerful stalker. Gane’s employment of high intelligence and effective movement will be utilized to compete with N’Gannou from afar. He’ll be quite judicious in choosing when to engage, clasp or infight N’Gannou especially early.

I expect Gane to even shoot for a takedown or two early in this affair not because he really wants to drag tis fight on the floor but because his battle plan requires N’Gannou to have to defend all aspects of his fight arsenal.

Gane’s movement, distance control and jab will be used over time to sap the champion of his zip. Eventually Gane’s evasive footwork will manifest itself into a more offensive tactic. This will force the N’Gannou to have to defend, backup and continue to expend precious energy.

Gane must usurp the explosive power from the Cameroonian early in order to more efficiently attack later in the bout or at least begin to dictate the fight with his IQ, cardio, quickness, precision and athleticism.

N’Gannou for his part must find a way to shut off the cage (yes, the larger cage in Cali this week) and press Gane backwards and into the fence where N’Gannou can unleash hooks, crosses, elbows and knees from the pocket where N’Gannou’s power is obtuse.

The 30’ cage favors Gane as it does with all athlete’s requiring the control of distance, space and angles for it is 44% larger than the small cage by which N’Gannou defeated Stipe Miocic.

This fight opened N’Gannou -115 to Gane +100. It was my feeling then as it is now that the opening number provided great opportunity with Gane. Last Friday on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Gane -120 for 2 units was released. My judgement is that the price on Gane was incorrect at opening.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Under -130

Over 2.5 +110

It’s my judgement that Gane will avoid early confrontation with N’Gannou and that any plan he has must include taking the champion into deep waters for success. N’Gannou for his part can touch anyone at any time and shut their lights out, I just don’t believe he’ll be able to catch Gane at any time during this bout.

Champion Bryan Moreno -175 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +155 Flyweight Title bout

It’s flyweight trilogy time!

Their first bout was ruled a draw and in their second bout Moreno submitted Figueiredo in the third round last June in Phoenix.

In both of those CHAMPIONSHIP 5 round bouts Figueiredo struggled making the weight and it absolutely affected his performance especially in the second fight. Figueiredo is a monster for the division who could be competing at bantam but he insists on trying to tax his system into allowing him to make 125lbs. It’s many a fight enthusiasts’ take that Figueiredo would be an immediate threat to the top five at Bantamweight but that his difficulty making 125 alters his effectiveness at flyweight.

Figueiredo’s ability to effectively make 125 is in my judgement the single most determining factor in how I handicap this fight.

Figueiredo is a black belt in BJJ, he has ferocious power striking, kicking and when able to perform at his best is an overwhelming force in his bouts no matter where the fight goes. However much of his ability has been eroded in those last couple of bouts by the weight cut. 

Further, Figueiredo has again swapped gyms for this trilogy. In his zeal to capture that perfect plan he’s gone from team Alpha Male to Phoenix to train with Henry Cejudo at ‘Fight Ready’. Let’s hope they have the magic elixir to make Figueiredo’s drop to 125 manageable.

-------------------------------------

Brandon Moreno, a large flyweight himself will be two inches taller and sport a two-inch reach advantage. Moreno’s fighting acumen is founded in Muay Thai striking, BJJ black belt proficiency and the heart of a true Mexican warrior.

Moreno’s got the size/length to keep Deiveson at distance and he has the grappling chops to roll with him should the fight got to the canvass. What Moreno must plan on is an opponent that will arrive to this bout the best version of himself the market has ever seen.

In their second fight last June Figueiredo opened -235 before closing -190 and yes, Insight the Octagon was all over Moreno then in a fight that took place in the heart of Sonora where every screaming voice was for Moreno. Saturday the fight is in LA and the crowd will be as voracious in its support for Moreno as they were in Phoenix. The difference will be that Figueredo knows what to expect unlike in the first bout where the overwhelming Moreno support clearly rattled him.

I don’t know what Figueiredo can do to change my opinion of how this fight transpires other than being one of the first athletes to step on the scale Friday morning and making weight easily. Should he accomplish that, I will regard him as being in a very competitive spot.

Should I detect in my due diligence this week that the overwhelming amount of Mexican love and adulation heaped on Moreno over the last several months has affected his focus or ability to properly train for this bout then I’ll account for that in my final assessment of this fight also but early research shows the Moreno is training like a champion for this bout.

There is no way to make any position on this bout without viewing the weigh-ins Friday am.

One thing we understand: this is a new day, a new event and new pricing so the handicap is a new one also.

Moreno opened -170 for this bout. Figueiredo, now the underdog changes this handicap completely.

Total for this fight: 3.5Rds. Over -115

I’ll have strong positions on this bout later this week…

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

 

Current releases:

Gane -120 2u

Gane/N'Gannou over 2.5  +110

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Profitable Sports Gaming


Tracking profitability 2022: challenge accepted - 1/16/2022

Fight Enthusiasts…..

I lost my web developer to Covid in November. Rob was my neighbor, my friend and a trusted technology savant which is something I am absolutely not.

To start 2022 and until I can regain access to the GambLou.com webpage, I’ll have to track win percentages, gross profit and ROI separately on an excel spreadsheet as opposed to on the website until I can get this situation remedied.

Each week I’ll populate my UFC Blogs with the results that are realized from the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast from the week prior. I’ll track results this way and on the Podcast  until I can overcome this situation and get my new web developer access to the inner workings of the GambLou.com website.

Frustrating it is but this will not affect the process nor the profitability of GambLou.com.

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast is up and running. Check it out on all podcast platforms.

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC LV46 Kattar vs. Chikadze: Georgian on my Mind - 1/13/2022

Friday afternoon the GambLou 'Bout Business Podcast drops across all major platforms. My final releases for UFC LV46 will be released there: Access the link below:
Gamblou's 'Bout Business MMA Podcast: EPISODE 16 // UFC LAS VEGAS 46 // 1-14-22 on Apple Podcasts

Welcome fight enthusiasts to Insight the Octagon’s betting coverage of mixed martial arts in 2022. It’s the UFC that I focus most specifically upon yet when there is Bellator cards with a bout that’s not so disproportionate in the level of talent, I’ll often have an opinion. Bellator is a chalk parade which is why I avoid it as a whole.

In this column I strive to make at least one official release for readers each week. Each official position is tracked and recorded. Accounting is published for each card and each year there is a running total. Readers have been able to profit handsomely each year that I’ve been publishing this column.

2021 results include a one-unit loss in the heavyweight main event December 19th which made final results for the year: 29-23 +9.72 units which is an average of +113 per winning position.

Readers who invested a mere $50.00 per ’Insight the Octagon’ position last year would have been able to purchase their yearly subscription to VSiN and banked a few dollars besides!

-----------------------------------

UFC Fight Night Kattar vs. Chikadze will be held at the UFC’s APEX center in Las Vegas. The set up there allows the organization to most effectively present fight productions despite the Covid situation that has been present for the last couple of years.

The Octagon or cage used in the APEX is a 25’ cage and it is smaller than the typical 30’ cages we’ll experience when the UFC holds PPV events. The fact is usually noted in these columns as the cage size absolutely affects fight outcomes.

This Fight Night event has already lost several bouts/athlete’s which is another reason that conducting one’s fight research late into the week, up to and though the Friday morning weigh-ins is mandatory for my handicapping.

All of my final UFC releases can be obtained by tuning into GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast which drops Friday afternoon every UFC fight week. Access it on all podcast platforms.

Calvin Kattar +195 vs. Giga Chikadze -230 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Kattar, 5-3 since 2018 in the UFC fights as a striker/boxer complimented with a blue belt in BJJ. He’s fifth ranked in the division yet is an underdog to his eight ranked opponent which only displays how unreliable anyone’s UFC rankings are.

Kattar has beaten solid competition and when he’s got any bout going his way, he’s backing opponents up behind a powerful jab and controlling the center of the octagon. Kattar’s previous losses have come at the hands of quick, fluid moving fighters who are long, fast, precision strikers like Holloway, Magomedshapirov and Moicano. 

Chikadze is a Georgian fighter who’s earned black belts in Goju-ryu Karate and Kyokushin karate, as well he trained in the Netherlands to refine his lethal kickboxing skills. He happens to be a tall, long, lightning quick precision striker exactly of the ilk that has dealt Katter fits in previous bouts. Chikadze from his upbring through his youth and into the UFC has been programed/created for an opportunity to be a world champion.

In this fight it will be Katter who will be the thicker more power-based athlete and he’ll need to take this bout directly to Chikadze, back him up and try to limit his space ideally pressing him into the fence and administering damage from close quarters.

Chikadze’s plan will be to ‘float like a butterfly and sting like a bee’ in that he’ll use his athleticism, fluid movement and precision striking to maintain distance in order to dictate this fight on his terms.

Though Kattar’s seen this type of opponent prior I do wonder what he could have improved to alter his susceptibility to be out performed when engaging with an opponent who is faster, quicker, taller, longer and has more weaponry. Kattar does represent a step up for Chikadze in his UFC path but make little mistake that Chikadze has chopped down many like Katter and my expectation is that’s exactly what will transpire.

Kattar’s durability, toughness, forward pressure and determination will be the traits that deliver Kattar into the third round and where perhaps he may begin to wear on Chikadze but if Edson Barboza could not execute that plan it may be difficult for Kattar to do so.

Chikadze’s looked sharp, explosive and devastating in his last couple of outings and Kattar took a one-sided beating to Max Holloway just about a year ago and I would compare Chikadze’s abilities today to Holloway’s then.

I believe that in this fight recency is having a double effect on the price of this bout as Chikadze carries huge momentum into this bout while Katter’s beatdown at the hands of Holloway have bettors (myself included) believing that this may be a one-sided fight.

I do handicap Chikadze to be a favorite in this bout but I can’t quite agree with the current pricing and will choose to allow more time to transpire this week because his price may continue to grow in value.

Total for the Fight: 2.5 Over -165

I released this fight Over 2.5 -140 upon its opening via Twitter.

Futures release will be released on the podcast unless timing dictates that it must be released via @Twitter. Pay attention please!

At current pricing it is still an official release but I would not go any higher. I believe the market is underestimating Kattar’s durability.

Jake Collier -125 vs. Chase Sherman +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

In November of 2017 Collier won a UFC bout at light heavyweight where the limit is 205lbs. In July of 2020 after a couple years away from the cage he took a heavyweight bout where he weighed in at 264lbs. He looked bloated, slow, telegraphing with his punches and unable to keep much pace. Power however and bad intentions he does tote to the cage with him.

He’s fought twice again since that bout each time teetering on the heavyweight limit (265lbs.), he’s earned a 1-2 record at heavyweight. His only heavyweight win was against Gian Villante another undisciplined light heavyweight unable to put the fork down that now wallows in the heavyweight division with him.

Collier, who is best described as a pure brawler will try to KO opponents immediately then grope with them once he’s run out of cardio.

In Chase Sherman we get a fighter on his second tour in the UFC. Sherman’s earned a blue belt in BJJ and a purple belt under Duke Roufus in kickboxing so he is more a legitimate mixed martial artist though he’s had poor results against lower-level competition in the heavyweight division. Sherman is more mixed martial artist than his opponent but his athleticism and fluidity as a fighter are limited and his cranium is ultra large and he keeps it high and centered during fights which leaves him vulnerable to getting clipped.  

This fight is lined tight because few have any idea how it will play out other than most can expect it to be exciting for about 120 seconds before it manifests itself into a couple oversized slow dancers at the high school prom.

Total for this bout 2.5 Over -150

I’ll have more fight insight after weigh-ins Friday morning and on VSiN’s ‘First Strike’.

Also, please remember to tune into the ‘Bout Business Podcast for all of my official releases Friday afternoon.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Proftable Sports Gaming


UFC: Tracking Profitability 2022 - 1/6/2022

Fight Enthusiasts…..

I lost my web developer to Covid in November. Rob was my neighbor, my friend and a trusted technology savant which is something I am absolutely not.

To start 2022 and until I can regain access to the GambLou.com webpage, I’ll have to track win percentages, gross profit and ROI separately on an excel spreadsheet as opposed to on the website until I can get this situation remedied.

Each week I’ll populate my UFC Blogs with the results that are realized from the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast releases provided the week prior. I’ll track results this way until I can overcome this situation and get my new web developer access to the inner workings of the GambLou.com website.

Frustrating it is but this will not affect the process nor the profitability of GambLou.com.

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast returns January 14th prior to UFC’s  Chikadze vs. Kattar fight card.

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC LV45 Lewis vs. Daukaus: You down with PPD? - 12/17/2021

GambLou's 'Bout Business Podcast drops this afternoon, it will be all my final releases for UFC LV45. Access it by hitting the link below or access it on any podcast platform

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gamblous-bout-business-mma-podcast/id1582936446?i=1000545317808

UFC LV45 is 2021’s final fight slate of the year. Headlined by heavyweights this card has fourteen scheduled bouts featuring fighters from Canada to Australia and they bring varying weaponry into the Octagon in order to try to get their hand raised in victory

Last week Charles Oliveira +145 took the fight right to Dustin Poirier and secured the ‘undisputed’ portion of his lightweight title with an impressive submission win.

Entering the final week of 2021 Insight the Octagon profitability stands: 29-22 +10.72u

Derrick Lewis +120 vs. Chris Daukaus -140 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Derrick ‘the black beast’ Lewis is the number three ranked heavyweight who had won his last four in a row before he entered the cage against Cyril Gane in August. He owns a victory over current champion Francis Ngannou in one of the strangest MMA bouts of all time as well as a recent win over Curtis Blaydes.

Lewis, a blue belt in BJJ possesses tremendous natural power and delivers incredible ‘Country’ strength with any strike/kick he offers. He’s explosive/destructive for up to six to eight minutes in any bout before his game becomes a simple attempt to club his opponent unconscious with a telegraphed, predictable power shot delivered with glacier-like speed.

Lewis is aware that with his size he must ration output in order to be able to remain effective for a couple of rounds then wing it after that for a mixed martial artist he is not. What Lewis is however is a one-dimensional striker/brawler who’s been able to find the chin of most of his lower caliber opponents. When he steps up into the realm of the top six fighters in the division however his lack of any real MMA weaponry leaves him exposed.

Lewis had claimed to be training more effectively for his last several fights which did not show against Gane. In fact, that claim may be difficult to back up given the beast's thirty-six years, his 6’3” 265 physique and the tremendous amount of effort he puts into each and every ‘trip hammer hook’ he hurls.

Thirty-two-year-old Chris Daukaus is a relatively new face in the oh so talent lacking heavyweight division. He’s seventh ranked after just four UFC bouts though he’s looked impressive albeit against competition that is only pedestrian.

A former Philly policeman, Daukaus, who holds a black belt in BJJ is somewhat undersized at 240lbs. +/- but he employs great movement and athleticism, has a solid grappling game, has the cardio to wrestle effectively and has finished all of his UFC opponents entering this bout.

Daukaus steps up in competition for this fight but he’s catching a ‘beast’ that is on the other side of his career and a fighter who is only able to remain effective for a short time understanding that his sole path to victory is to swing that sledgehammer right hand.

Daukaus will need to utilize his superior footwork to remain evasive while choosing opportune times to attack. He needs to encourage Lewis to expend his precious energy early in the bout. Provided he can evade the telegraphed and evolutionarily slow ‘Sunday punches’ hurled at him early by Lewis then Daukaus has the chance to display his talent and prove to the rest of the division that he is a legitimate top six threat at Heavyweight.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -115

I am surprised at the 1.5Rd. total and see this going under only if Daukaus utilizes absolutely no fight IQ and rushes the ‘beast’. However, fight IQ is a strength of Daukaus.

Over 1.5Rds. -115

Steven Thompson -200 vs. Belal Muhammad +175 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

Belal Muhammad is the tenth ranked welterweight in the UFC, he’s thirty-three and sports a 19-3 professional record. Muhammad’s only been beaten in the UFC by Alan Jouban, Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal with a NC decision against Leon Edwards, all top talents in the division.

Muhammad has a structured wrestling base to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. His striking has improved drastically over the course of his time in the UFC and his most impressive asset is his dynamic conditioning. Muhammad applies wicked forward pressure to smother, fatigue then eventually overcome opponents.

Thirty-eight-year-old welterweight Steven Thomson arrives at this bout decorated with a 5th degree black belt in Tetsushin-ryĆ« Kempo, a 1st degree black belt in Jujutsu, a Black belt in American Kickboxing and a Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. These weapons coupled with Thomson’s experience, athleticism, precision striking, innately evasive defensive skill and unorthodox kicking game provide him with lethal finishing power, provided he is able to maintain the distance to deliver.

Seventh ranked, Thompson is perhaps the most overlooked/underrated fighter in the welterweight division despite his age. Thompson holds previous championship level five round experience and he’s faced the best of the division WITHOUT taking an abundance of damage.

Thompson’s Karate base, fluid movement and his length/height allow him to effectively evade incoming strikes/kicks while simultaneously positioning himself to counter any attacker with refined precision fists, elbows, feet, shins and knee strikes. 

In this fight we’ll be witnessing the MMA version of a bull fight as Muhammad will be unrelenting in attempting to force Thompson back, engage him standing then eventually press him to the cage then drag him to the floor in order to gain dominance.

Thomson meanwhile will need to use his movement, his counterstriking and his length to control space/separation between the two in order to deliver kicks, elbows, strikes and knees onto the incoming Muhammad.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angelo Dundee would quip and this is a great stylistic fight but one where I handicap Thompson to be a legitimate threat to dominate this fight from bell to bell.

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -260

Enjoy the final UFC event of 2021

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 269 Oliveira vs. Poirier: A doBronx tale - 12/10/2021

GambLou's 'Bout Business Podcast has a full synopsis of all my releases for UFC 269: access it via the link below:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-14-ufc-269-12-10-21/id1582936446?i=1000544610046

Saturday’s UFC 269 will be highlighted by two world titles championship bouts, it marks the organizations second to last event of 2021. Placed behind those two championship fights are several well matched highly intriguing bouts designed to provide fight enthusiasts with plenty of ‘toe to toe’ drama as well investment opportunity and yes, I feel that there are some mangy mutts scattered throughout this slate.

Typically favorites win at a 64%/65% yearly rate in the UFC however in 2021 favorites have realized a whopping 70% success. Underdog wagerers must remember to remain patient and selective through these favorite laden times and know that staying the course is always a keen consideration.

Last week we lost via KO with Brad Riddell in the co main event and won via KO with Jamahal Hill +165. Insight the Octagon profitability 2021: 28-22 +9.27u

Champion Charles Oliveira +145 vs. Dustin Poirier -160 Lightweight (155lbs.) Championship

Poirier has become a household name since defeating the brash talking Irishman Conor McGregor twice this year and while Poirier is the first ranked contender, he is whom most regard as titleholder. This bout against Oliveira is so important for Poirier claims the championship with a win to pair with the riches and fame he earned from those two tussles with McGregor. This all seems wrapped up nicely for him.

Poirier has been in with the elite of the division and has dominated except for a one-sided loss to then champ Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2019. He’d won four impressive fights prior to that one and has Hooker and McGregor pelts on him mantle since.

Poirier at his best is extremely well rounded, his large for the weight class and has deft striking, solid grappling, wrestling and is as tough and determined as any athlete on the roster. That fact that he’s a southpaw add more complexity to his well-rounded fight arsenal.

Oliveira and fight fans everywhere realize that the interim championship he won vs. Michael Chandler in May only gave Oliveira the right to face Poirier Saturday to determine the legitimate champion of the Lightweight division.

Oliveira is an under appreciated fighter in my judgement. Some years ago, he toiled, struggled and bounced between two division trying to find himself. He even picked up a ‘quitter’ reputation that was somewhat earned but, in my estimation, he’s overcome completely since then.

Oliveira will be the taller, longer man in the octagon and his length, quickness, striking accuracy, and 3rd degree black belt in BJJ packaged together will challenge the physically thicker more structured Poirier. One must look no further than Poirier’s relatively lackluster performance against the long, lanky Dan Hooker for reference as to what form of jeopardy Oliveira will present Poirier.

Oliveira’s well aware that owns no title until this bout with Poirier is settled. The apex of his career lies ahead and I know I can rely on his 110% focus, determination and effort.

For Poirier, this has been a huge year.

He earned the riches, fame and notoriety that he so yearned for when he beat the charade that is McGregor twice. He’s successfully created and funded a dynamic charity in Louisiana for underprivileged children which is both admirable but surely takes some mental energy to pioneer.

Add to those distractions the fact that this will be the third FIVE ROUND championship title fight camp in 2021 that Poirier will have undertaken and I can’t help believe that Poirier’s performance will be affected by all of this Saturday.

Two mentally draining and physically taxing camps then the actual bouts…. against an icon like McGregor now backed up with a third camp against an opponent far more versed and dangerous than that one-dimensional Irish loudmouth.

Poirier opened -150 for this fight. He is now -160 and his price is rising. I believe beside the notoriety, fame and riches that he earned in the McGregor bouts; Poirier has also been recipient of stringent recency bias. It’s my judgement that one is paying a hefty tax to consider Poirier at this price and in this situation.

Oliveira +145

I’ll take a unit now and if it goes up, I’ll take another. I am not unwilling to invest 2 units on Do Bronx.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -180…The Over opened -130. I’ll look to consider the Overpriced only with 2.5/3.5 rounds in order to obtain a more favorable plus price.

Champion Amanda Nunes -900 vs. Juliana Pena +600 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Championship

Champion Nunes shares the title of most dominant woman’s mixed martial artist of all time with Valentina Shevchenko (my opinion).

Nunes, who also owns the featherweight (145lbs.) title has basically cleaned out two divisions in the UFC though this is her first bout at bantamweight since 2019. Nunes has earned a brown belt in Judo, a black belt in BJJ and she’s a most powerful striker who is also gifted on the ground.

Juliana Pena, the ‘Venezuelan vixen’ arrives to this bout with a one fight win streak! Yes, she was awarded this bout after a one-sided win over Sarah McMann. In her previous bout she was finished by Germane de Randomie who by the way was dominated by Nunes in 2019.

Pena has decent striking but she’ll in no way want to stand with Nunes in fact her only path to victory will be to try to bum-rush Nunes, fight crazy like Pena does then take Nunes to the canvas for a grappling exposition.

If Pena has the tough-mindedness, wrestling, strength and cardio to get this bout to the floor then she has a chance to compete. Shy of that this bout sets up to be an exhibition provided Nunes has no issues with weigh-ins.

Total in this fight 1.5 Over -110

Santiago Ponzinibbio -125 vs. Geoff Neal -105 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Fourteenth ranked Ponzinibbio was once the hottest fighter in the division having won seven straight fights. Things occurred that took him away from fighting to recover from injury and when he came back his place had been taken by new faces/talent in the division and his talent had waned.

With his victory over Miguel Baeza Ponzi solidified himself as a top fifteen combatant and his goal is to return immediately to the top five for a shot at the title. ‘The Argentine dagger’ is a black belt in BJJ and employs a volume based striking attack that is based on power kicks, strikes and elbows. At thirty-five Ponzinibbio has little time to waste and knows this fight is the most important in his career.

Geoff Neal hit the UFC in a frenzy winning his first five bouts before displaying lackluster performances when he stepped up in talent to face Steven Thompson and Neil Magny. In each fight Neal under performed and seemed to struggle.

Over thanksgiving Neal was arrested on weapons charges and DUI and spent the holiday in the slammer. Under no circumstance can I believe that being arrested during a fight camp for these kinds of charges helps a fighter perform in any way.

This bout started out pick-em and finally Ponzi money is now appearing. Funny how little attention the UFC gets in football season for this news was out several days ago and should have affected the price of this bout sooner than it did.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -145

There are several other bouts worthy of investment on this card. Look for me on VSiN programming through the week as well for a final synopsis of my releases for this card please tune into the GambLou ‘Bout Business podcast available wherever your favorite podcast is offered!

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou.com 

'Bout Business Podcast

#ProfitableSportsGaming


UFC LV44 Aldo vs. Font: Quake, rattle n roll - 12/2/2021

GambLou's 'Bout Business Podcast is now available....hit the link below:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-13-ufc-las-vegas-44-12-4-21/id1582936446?i=1000543945883

-originally published 12-1-21-

After a week off for Thanksgiving the UFC heads into it’s last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC LV44 from the APEX center in Las Vegas. Fifteen fights are scheduled featuring athletes from around the globe each equipped with supreme conditioning, complete fighting arsenal and finite focus.

Many of the combatants on this fight card are somewhat unknown to the masses but there are several terrifically matched bouts that will excite those watching as well they’ll draw my wagering attention. Let’s take a peek at a couple.

Rob Font -145 vs. Jose Aldo +125 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Aldo we’ve not only heard of but we’re aware that at age thirty-five he’s still a top five fighter in a division lower in weight than the featherweight one he ruled for almost a decade.

Aldo brings dynamic experience, athleticism, cage savvy, cardiovascular ability and guile into this his twelfth UFC main event. Aldo’s attack revolves around black belt ability in both BJJ and Luta Livre.

Aldo’s fluid on his feet, dominant on the mat and able to fight for a full twenty-five minutes against elite talent in both the bantamweight/featherweight divisions as he’s proven over the course of his eighteen-year professional career. The one concern for Aldo in this bout may be his ability to endure a full twenty-five minutes of frenetic pace for in past battles he’s shown a propensity to ebb late.

In sixth ranked contender Rob Font we have a formidable, technical, fluid moving striker. Font has earned his way into his first main event by defeating his last four opponents in dominant fashion.

Font’s fight game is primarily striking based as he’s earned a white monkol in Muay Thai to go with his brown belt in BJJ. Font will hold slight height, reach, youth advantages in this confrontation but those are not pronounced enough to provide him a tangible edge early, late may be a different story however. What I believe we can count on is that Font will want to fight Aldo standing.

I’m interested in Font’s ability to combat Aldo’s movement, his devastating leg kicks and his early fight striking quickness for Aldo fires fresh early. Font will measure himself early knowing that his ability to take this fight past the middle of the third round will provide him great inspiration as well leverage for that’s when the speed factor changes.

The attrition brought on by decades of epic battles may show on Aldo as we’ve seen in some prior bouts and we know that when a fighter’s zip goes….it goes quickly. For aged, lower division fighters where quickness, agility and stamina are foundational time is no friend but a foe. 

Other than cardio, Aldo holds most measurable advantages in this bout in its early stages. It’s the later stages where I believe most of the drama of this fight will unfold. If we see the same Jose Aldo of the last couple of bouts, we have ourselves a live dog however…. father time remains undefeated and Aldo’s ability to compete with Font late in this bout should it get there is of real concern.

Rob Font is a motivated athlete looking to earn what Jose Aldo has possessed for some time now. Font’s focus and his ability to fire fresh are his advantages but will that be enough to overtake a legend of the sport?

Pass pending weigh-ins

Total for this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -150

Rafael Fiziev -125 vs. Brad Riddell +105 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

Here’s a fight that should be held in another year or so because both of these elite athletes are top ten talents in this division….in time.

They’re both deft strikers with a sturdy wrestling base, they’re similar in every physical measurable and they know one another from having rolled at the same gym in Phuket, Thailand together. In fact, Riddell contacted Fiziev to discuss this bout prior to each taking it.

In the Kyrgyzstani Fiziev, we have a kickboxer by background who has a blue belt in BJJ. Fourteenth ranked Fiziev’s offensive striking is matrix-like and only surpassed by his ability to slip, slide and evade incoming strikes with brilliant defensive movement. That said, his is singularly versed in striking and his ground game has beeen untested.

One galring issue with Fiziev was found in his last performance where his momentum was tarnished when his cardio failed him in the third round in his last bout against slickster Bobby Green.

Twelfth ranked Brad 'Quake' Riddell is from New Zealand’s City Kickboxing gym but has trained in Phuket for years developing his game. Where Riddell has advantage over Fiziev may be in his quickness, speed and footwork for Riddell uses accumulation more in his favor while his opponent is more deliberate but perhaps a touch more powerful.

This fight is lined correctly because no one knows who is going to win this bout but anyone involved with MMA will stop what they’re doing in order to watch this fifteen-minute masterpiece, one that most everyone expects to occur standing but one where I can envision Riddell taking Fiziev to the floor in order to steal a round or two.

This bout opened a dead pick-em.

Riddell +105

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -200

Jimmy Crute -190 vs. Jamahal Hill +165 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

There are few things more exciting than huge explosive men fighting in a small cage and that’s exactly what we have in this dandy.

Aussie Crute is the thirteenth ranked fighter in the division. He’s got a developed Judo/ BJJ base and his striking is developing rapidly. Crute’s tough, determined and uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents up then grind them down to the canvas for a mauling. 

It’s Crute’s forward pressure and submission prowess that he relies on to eventually deflate opponents once he has forced them into the clinch then onto the floor.

Fourteenth ranked Hill enters this fight after having his elbow dislocated by Paul Craig a dynamic submission specialist who was submitted himself by Jimmy Crute. Suffice it to say that Hill’s attention to grappling was in full practice during this camp!

Hill’s from the streets of Grand Rapids and though he’s decorated with a blue belt in BJJ let’s not believe that his BJJ acumen is anywhere near that which Crute possesses.

For the southpaw Hill his superiority will lie in that fact that he’s two inches the taller man in the cage, he’ll sport a five-inch reach advantage and hold a slight leg reach advantage all which will deliver him leverage provided he is able to keep this bout standing.

In this fight I see a determined Crute pressing this fight into Hill and while that’s the prescription for success for Crute, it’s also a prescription for danger.

Hill is athletic and utilizes nimble footwork in the cage to set up angles for his precision power strikes/kicks.  His movement, his substantial size advantage and his aggressive striking will make it difficult for Crute to earn his way inside the pocket in order to clasp onto the larger man.

In fact, the incoming forward pressure by Crute may play directly into the favor of Hill’s aggressive power striking. Provided Hill’s able to keep this standing, he’s in advantageous position.

Normally in a brawler vs. mixed martial artist battle I take the mixed martial artist but because the way Hill was defeated in his last, I believe he may be in position to bounce here understanding how critical it is for him to maintain distance.

I’m interested in this Hill +165 from a side and total perspective but there’s no rush to move yet as the price is increasing….

Total in this fight: 1.5 Pick-em

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Profitable Sports Gaming