UFC FI7 Holloway vs. Kattar: Island Knee's - 1/16/2021

Welcome to 2021 fight enthusiasts. Honestly the early start was something I have been warning everyone about all week and it it I who posts this set of releases ate! Sorry. Today’s post will be abbreviated to just releases and I’ll return to full breakdowns Wednesday.

Let’s Fight

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.

--Posted 1-13-21 Point Spread Weekly—

Welcome to 2021 fight Enthusiasts. Saturday’s UFC Fight Island 7 from Abu Dhabi will be broadcast live on ABC which is a monumental accomplishment for the organization.

This slate is scheduled to begin at 9am PT Saturday on ESPN+ with the main card airing on ABC at 12 Noon PST. This is the first of three productions to be held within eight days of one another and of course I’ll cover each event.

Next week’s ‘Insight the Octagon’ column will devote itself to the Wednesday January 20th fight card where Michael Chiesa takes on fellow welterweight contender Neil Magny. I’m not sure about others but I love midweek fight events!

Saturday January 23 is the highly anticipated UFC 257 with the main event featuring Irish loudmouth Conor McGregor in a rematch against Dustin Poirier. The releases for that fight card will be submitted to the fine editors of “Point Spread Weekly” Friday January 22nd for distribution to all subscribers soon thereafter. 

The purpose of ‘Insight the Octagon’ is to derive bottom line profitability from fight productions offered by the UFC. And while it’s not always feasible to profit from each individual UFC event, I’ll pledge to readers that over the course of the year, those that invest in EVERY ‘Insight the Octagon’ release will earn when the end of the year arrives.

Last year Insight the Octagon releases realized a 39-27 result earning 20.47 units of net profitability and while all years may not be as lucrative…all years will provide a profitable result.

Point Spread Weekly readers who wagered $50.00 per release in 2020 would have earned $1,023.00 for the year. This income could have paid for a subscription to ‘Point Spread Weekly’ magazine for a year then left the investor with some walking around cash to boot.

It’s been three weeks without elbows, ankle locks or knockouts but finally our wait is over. Let’s dig right in.

Holloway -160 vs. Calvin Kattar +140 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Sixth ranked featherweight Kattar is a uniquely skilled fighter who relies primarily on his boxing. Kattar is large for the division at 5’11” as well his 72” reach will provide him a three-inch arm reach advantage in this bout.

Kattar steps well up in class for this bout against the former champion and he’ll look to press this fight against Holloway and force engagement. Kattar who is unusually large for a featherweight fighter works best when walking opponents down and backing them up which allows him to work off his piston jab. Kattar is a fluent striker with tremendous precision striking coupled with profuse power. Kattar must be respected here.

Holloway enters the number one ranked contender though many believe that an unfavorable decision in his last outing cost him an opportunity to regain his title. In Holloway’s mind and the minds of the MMA community a win here almost ensures another opportunity at the title so suffice it to say there’s much on the line for Holloway and his career path in this bout.

The younger man by three years, Holloway has been in the octagon with the absolute best fighters a145 and 155 pounds. Holloway’s body of competition, his vast experience and his championship pedigree combine to make him a deserved favorite in a fight that looks to be ultra-competitive.

Holloway also utilizes aggressive forward pressure combined with a vast array of arm/leg striking. His pace is unrelenting and his strikes come from every angle and plane. Holloway may not have the power that Kattar possesses but he surely has a championship arsenal of offensive and defensive weaponry to go with the mental savvy to survive any threat.

Holloway will need to account for Kattar’s size/power in this bout for I see Kattar as having similar fight dynamics in size and style of fighter to Dustin Poirier who bested Holloway in a bout at 155 lbs. a few years ago.

Holloway’s last five fights have all been five round championship level bouts so we know he’s conditioned to go twenty-five minutes. The question that must be asked is: have those wars taken anything away from Holloway?

The matchmakers at the UFC deserve kudo’s for selecting these two warriors for this ABC television network opportunity/exposure. In essence they’ve diagnosed the two most aggressive predators in all of their divisions to display to the ABC network audience. These men will both march forcefully to the center of the octagon to engage with one another and this won’t be a pinochle game!

Holloway opened -190 vs. Kattar +160 for this bout and despite Holloway’s resume it’s Kattar who is getting bet. I feel the bookmakers got this line correct at opening honestly. Holloway’s experience and more diverse fight arsenal will win this fight via decision as I handicap it.

Holloway -160

but use patience as this price is dropping and every penny saved is a penny earne

Total for this bout is 4.5 rounds Over -170

Carlos Condit -155 vs. Matt Brown +145 Welterweight (170lbs.)

These two were originally scheduled to get it on sometime in 2013 or so. Now Condit is forced to fight to earn though he does love fighting and Brown fights after contemplating retirement because he’s as much a warrior as is Condit.

Condit has advantages is quickness and height while Brown’s power and aggression make him someone to be very wary of. Based on each man’s last performance it’s Brown who I feel has the advantage in this bout. These men are well past their prime but back in the day each were both top twenty talents and this fight would have been fire. Saturday its most likely to be a smolder.

Total for this fight is 2.5 rounds Under -115

Santiago Ponzinibbio -270 vs. Jingliang Li +230 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Li is the pioneer of Chinese mixed martial artists. He’s uniquely versed in Shuai Jiao, Sanda and BJJ. Nicknamed ‘the Leetch’ Li chooses to engage opponents on the feet and strike as opposed to roll on the floor and he’ll find a willing adversary standing on the other side of the cage in Ponzinibbio.

Ponzi, an Argentinian enters the octagon with a kickboxing/BJJ background. Ponzinibbio has been away from the octagon since November 2018 when he dominated current number nine ranked welterweight Neil Magny with a fourth-round finish. Ponzi’s time away has dropped him from the rankings and the Argentinian is eager to return to the UFC with a splash and he aims to finish the sturdy Li in this bout.

This bout looks to be a stand up was with Ponzi utilizing spinning kicks and a more flamboyant striking style against a fighter in Li who will be more measured, deliberate and forward pressing in his attempts to corner the Argentinian fighter and reign damage on him. I’d liken this fight to a ‘tortoise and the hare’ situation if you will.

While I do view Ponzinibbio as a substantial favorite in this bout the fact remains the Li is the originator of Chinese MMA and he arrives with pride, toughness and tremendous durability. This fight is going to be a war but a war I believe does go to the judges.

Total for this fight is 1.5 rounds Over -185

I’ll go to Props section for this release this release:

Fight goes the distance +110

I have a couple other positions that need to ferment so make sure you check out GambLou.com Saturday am to obtain my final releases for this Fight Island 7 card.

Lastly, I had released Aljamain Sterling against Petr Yan in late November or early December but their fight was rescheduled for March. That line has now been released: Yan -140 vs. Sterling +120. I’ll have much to say about this one but for now run don’t walk and invest in ….

Sterling +120

Good luck and Thank You for reading.

--updated 1-16-21 7:15am PT—

Final releases:

Holloway -160

Holloway via decision +150

Ponzi/Li goes distance +110

Buckley vs. DiChirico goes distance +135

Zawada +220 (half)

Good Luck and enjoy the bouts….

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


NFL Super Wild Card: Just Win Baby! - 1/9/2021

--1-10-21 8:50am PT--

I have always preached Selectivity because it so positively affects win percentages and therefore  profitability when it comes to wagering in the NFL. For that reason I'm totally passing today as I need advantage in order to wager not action.  I see little advantage in today's contests unless the Browns approach the +6.5/+7 number. heading into tonight's affair

Hey 3-0 and a week to prepare for Divisional weekend seems a sound plan.....enjoy your Sunday. 

--1-9-21 8:30am PT--

Ok I'll release game byt game just to insure my information is timely. the blueprint is:

Colts +7 which is previlent in Vegas and starting to show offshore,

Over 42 (or better) Rams/Seahawks and finally

WFT +9.5

please check in game by game in case someone get's scratched or lines change.....thank you

Colts +7 or better


UFC Vegas 17 Thompson vs. Neal: Sin City Submission - 12/19/2020

Tonight’s the last fight slate of 2020 and I must admit that I’m a bit melancholy as this year while challenging for many has been a banner year for GambLou.com and our profitability with the UFC. This card is loaded with excellent matchups and I feel like firing on some mangy mutts and a gal named Gillian…. time to punch the clock then watch athlete’s punch each other!

You readers know the pattern…my VSiN ‘Point Spread weekly’ article is below followed by updated comments and final releases.

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and to anyone that isn’t Christian or Jewish my respects and best wishes go out to you also with best wishes. Now let’s get it on!

--Originally published 12-16-20 Point Spread Weekly—

This week’s UFC Vegas 17 card is the final production of the year and it may also be as deep a fight slate as we have seen in 2020. Fourteen fights featuring athletes from eight different Countries all equip with varying combinations of mixed martial arts expertise are prepared to advance their careers while providing fight fans with a fertile arena by which to derive one last card’s worth of MMA profit.

Let’s also throw a veil of motivation on the athlete’s in this fight production as the UFC has announced that it expects to cut as many as sixty fighters or more very shortly. The impetus to win Saturday is as strong as it can be for these fighters looking to remain with the UFC.

Last week Charles ‘DoBronx’ Oliviera finally received his chance to compete with the elite in the Lightweight division. Oliviera dominated Tony Ferguson on his way to a one-sided decision which now solidifies him as the number one ranked Lightweight in the UFC. The result enhanced ‘Insight the Octagon’ profitability with a +150 winner.

It’s Oliviera who poses the largest threat to Khabib Nurmagomedov in the Lightweight division should Nurmagomedov return. I acknowledge Tony Ferguson as a true warrior and all-time great 155’er by taking the bout with Oliviera without batting an eye but Tony’s skills have waned, as I wrote last week, when it goes…it goes quickly.

2020 profitability: 39-28 +19.47 units 

*One last note: I’ll be submitting my final releases for all UFC fight cards to the amazing VSiN editors each Saturday morning. They send it out so readers will be updated with those final selections and prices.

Steven ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson -120 vs. Geoff ‘Hands of Steel’ Neal +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) Main event

I talk often of how styles contribute to the dynamic of mixed martial arts competitions and this main event is a perfect example. Neal is ranked eleventh in the division after just five UFC bouts. He’s thick, explosive, powerful and fights to knock opponents heads off of their shoulders and in four of his five UFC bouts he’s finished mid-level opponents impressively. Neal wants to walk opponents down and press the action forcing opponents into a brawl which plays directly into his strength. Neal is there to bludgeon and while he is basically a stalking southpaw striker, he is one powerful and dangerous southpaw striker.

Thompson is the fifth ranked welterweight and possibly the most overlooked and under rated fighter on the Roster. Thompson, thirty-seven has been in previous championship level five round bouts and faced the best of the division WITHOUT taking an abundance of damage as his defensive fluidity and height allow him to effectively evade incoming strikes/kicks while setting himself up to counter attack with his refined kickboxing prowess.

Movement is another Thomson strength as is distance control which he must use in this bout to keep from being stationary in front of ‘hands of steel’ who is appropriately named.

Thomson’s experience, athleticism, precision striking, innately evasive defensive skill and unorthodox kicking game are fueled by his incredible combination of fighting specialties as he is a 5th degree black belt in Tetsushin-ryĆ« Kempo, a 1st degree black belt in Jujutsu, a Black belt in American Kickboxing and finally he sports a Brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Carlos Machado.

It’s my judgement that Thomson who opened -155 is well prepared for this bout as he competed against another similar sized stalking striker in his last bout when he faced Vicente Luque. Thompson won a one-sided decision in that bout and I feel that though those two are not identical the Luque bout more than prepared Thomson for Neal.

Thompson is now +100 and the price is working in my favor here so I’ll monitor it closely to see if Wonderboy moves to a dog price. Wonderboy +100 or at an underdog price is a release.

Fight total: 4.5 rounds Under -120

Jose Aldo -160 vs. Marlon Vera +140 Bantamweight co main event

Thirty-four-year-old Aldo was once the GOAT of all MMA but now is ranked seventh in his division. At this stage in his career, it seems like he now serves as a barometer to measure which of these two combatants solidifies themself into the top five of the division.

Aldo’s 2-5 since 2017 but the losses were to current Featherweight champion Volkanovski, then Bantamweight champion Holloway (twice), current Bantamweight champion Petr Yan in his last fight and Marlon Moraes (who is on this fight card) a fight that many including myself thought Aldo won. That’s absolutely elite competition.

Vera is the fifteenth ranked Bantamweight who we last saw finishing the highly touted Sean O’Malley in August. Vera has deep experience although not against the level of competition that Aldo has faced. Vera ‘s a black belt in BJJ and an aggressive forceful striker who can start slow (see Song Yadong fight) but finishes with fury and freneticism.

Since 2018 Vera stands 6-1 though I consider him to be on a 7-0 run as I believe he beat Song Yadong this past May in a fight that now serves Vera well in preparing him for the task at hand which is Aldo.

Vera’s younger and taller than Aldo and on the ascent in the division while Aldo is trying to hold onto his ranking with the hopes of another title shot. It’s easier to hunt than be hunted and on Saturday it is Aldo whose pelt is hunted.

Vera needs to protect himself against himself by not engaging Aldo immediately in the firestorm of the first round. Aldo’s aggression, devastating kicks and combination striking are keen in the first five minutes but after that time the old champion does begin to slow.

Vera must remain calm and use constant movement with a piston jab to force Aldo to expend energy early trying to engage with him. Controlling the pace early is mandator for Vera then as the proud old lion begins to slow Vera can sit on his strikes more and try to take Aldo out.

Aldo spent his entire career at 155 lbs. and often struggled with weight there so Friday’s weigh-ins are important here but Vera +125 or better is the goal.

Fight total: 2.5 Over -180

Michel Pereira -140 vs. Khaos Williams +120 Welterweight (170lbs)

This is a fight where two speeding out of control down bound trains are on the same track hurling toward one another with a collision about to occur. The victor of this explosion will most likely earn a top fifteen ranking within the Welterweight ranks and have the entire rest of the division doing their best to avoid them.

Williams burst onto the scene after an amazing first round knockout two fights back against Alex Morono (also on this card), he followed that effort by completely destroying his last opponent Abdul Razak Alhassan in thirty seconds and Alhassan is a highly respected athlete in the division. Williams uses few tricks or gimmicks, what he does wield is an abundance of quickness, explosive power and bad intent but his most impressive trait may be the extreme confidence and swagger he totes with him into the cage.

I faded Williams in his last bout because I believed Alhassan would be able to take him deep and force him into fighting past a minute or so in the first round and Alhassan got starched. It’s my opinion that someone needs to test Williams and force to compete past five minutes but that seems to be a fighter who uses movement and defense as opposed to his opponent Saturday who uses aggression and flamboyant striking.

That opponent is Michel Pereira who is perhaps the most aggressive fighter in the UFC. He’s accomplished in a unique combination of fighting expertise which provides him the ability to punish opponents on the feet, floor, or fence.

He’s a Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu as well a Black belt in karate. While Pereira is the more versed, experienced fighter, he is also the fighter more prone to attempting unique flamboyant striking which against the wrong opponent can manifest itself in tactical mistakes. Any mistake against Khaos Williams will end the Pereira’s evening so it will be fascinating to watch his tactics.

Both of these destroyers are twenty-six years old and similar in their physical characteristics save that Williams sports a four-inch reach advantage. This is worth mentioning as these guys are going to stand and mix it up in the middle as soon as the bell rings and the statistics tell us that fighters in stand-up fights that have at least a 2” reach advantage win 605 of the time.

Pereira may have more ways to win this bout and he’ll appear to be the larger man in the octagon but there’s something about Williams, his camp, his confidence and his God given natural knock out ability that force me to feel that he’s no underdog as in this bout.

Williams +120

Fight total: 1.5 over -115

Marlon Moraes -135 vs. Rob Font +120 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

For five minutes third ranked Marlon Moraes is pound for pound as lethal and devastating a striker as there is in the entire organization. After five minutes however, Moraes has shown to slow considerably in his bouts, the most glaring example was in his fight with Jose Aldo last December. Moraes won a controversial decision in that affair but what it displayed to me was how ineffective Moraes became as the fight wore on.

Moraes followed that effort up with a second-round submission loss earlier this year so he comes into this fight in as close to a must win situation as there could be especially considering the impending layoffs about to come.

Moraes has fought elite competition, he’s an experienced well rounded mixed martial artist with lethal power but he has been playing musical chairs with his fight camps which is a sure tell to me that a fighter is searching. Entering a bout off a couple of losses with little continuity in a fight camp is not ideal.

Moraes’ opponent, eleventh ranked Rob Font must adhere to a plan of attack that has him managing distance, utilizing constant movement and pumping a stiff jab to temper the pressure that forward charging Moraes will unleash in round one.

Font must navigate the early explosive striking from Moraes and grind the Brazilian into the second round where the tide may begin to turn. Font’s chances of winning this fight come down to his ability to use his size/reach advantages to blister Moraes early from the outside then as the fight wears on, bludgeon him with power shots as the Brazilian gasses.

Font +130 or better

Fight total: 2.5 Over -140

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

--updated 12-19-20 9:15 am PT—

I’m ready for a terrific fight slate where excellent athlete’s will perform for the benefit of our business. Let’s finish this year off with a handful of profitable positions. Here are my final releases for UFC Vegas 17.

Neal -115 vs. Thomson +100

This fight is about the footwork, experience and length of Thompson period. Neal’s the real deal Holyfield AFTER this fight.

Thompson +100

Aldo -160 vs. Vera +140

I can’t help but feel that the weight cut to 135lbs. is going to affect Jose eventually and I feel to an extent it already has. Aldo took a ‘whuppin’ late in the fight against a paper tiger in Petr Yan and in my estimation if Vera can find round two this fight turns to the Ecuadorian as Jose slows.

Vera +140

Pereira -115 vs. Williams +100

Just watch the fighter stare downs…. I’m happy I moved on this fight when Khaos was a mutt.

Williams +120

Moraes -160 vs. Font +140

It’s the Font length and the Moraes propensity to tire that has me figuring Font, who trains with Calvin Katter is live tonight…. kind of a changing of the guard?

Font +140

Robertson -115 vs. Santos +100

I believe Robertson is too grinding and unrelenting for a fighter in Santos who has not fought the level of competition that Robertson has not has her level of experience.

Robertson -115

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 256 Figueiredo vs. Moreno: Flyweight bate - 12/12/2020

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the last PPV event of the 2020 calendar. 2020 has been a challenging year for many but with that said, GambLou.com has been able to manipulate the challenges into opportunity for this has been a banner year for both profitability and recognition by those I regard as important within our industry ….you readers.

The goal for these last couple of events is to add to our profitability in any way then prepare for the beginning of the 2021 UFC fiscal year. I’ll pledge to produce profitability for you readers provided you continue to check in with GambLou.com and by all means please also tell your friends because everyone likes to win. Make sure your amigo’s understand that this is a marathon not a sprint so if they want to hit me one week then run tell them not to bother. However, if they want to ride with Uncle Louie for the year….you’ll bank profit.

It’s business!

This past week’s VSiN ‘Point Spread weekly’ article follow then my final releases for UFC 256. Have a great weekend everyone.

--originally published 12-9-20 Point Spread Weekly magazine--

UFC 256 from Las Vegas this Saturday is the last PPV event of the year. Originally scheduled with twelve bouts the production as of Tuesday now has ten competitive fights on tap.  Throughout the challenges of 2020 the UFC has been tenacious about presenting their sport to the masses in a safe environment for their athletes, employees and all who work on the periphery to present forty-four (+/-) fight productions per year.

Last week’s fight slate was hugely affected by cancellations and it’s unfortunate that the fight I released with John Allan +190 actually went off. Allan fought as well as he could but got decisioned by a better fighter, which happens. We turn the page now to UFC 256.

Deiveson Figueiredo -290 vs. Brandon Moreno + 250 Flyweight (125lbs.) Championship

Champion Figueiredo has a chance to be the most dominant Flyweight Champion since Demetrius Johnson. He is unusually large for the division and cuts weight aggressively to make the 125lb. limit. Figueiredo possesses profuse striking power with arms, elbows and leg kicks and he buttresses those bludgeoning wallops with unrelenting pressure and bad intention.

Most opponents of Figueiredo either force themselves into a mistake as Alex Perez did three weeks ago or they wilt under his aggression and pressure as Joe B did two fights back.

Figueiredo’s size, power striking and submission skill make him a dynamic challenge for any Flyweight fighter. That said, Figueiredo has a recent loss. Tips from that fight coupled with the realization that he has never fought past the third round in any professional fight may provide a blueprint by which to attack this monster.

Jussier Foirmiga employed forward pressure transitioning to wrestling to take Figueiredo into a three round decision loss. In that fight Figueiredo slowed substantially in the third round. If any flyweight is to ‘whup’ Figueiredo it will take a combatant who can force him into expending effort from the opening bell and have the fortitude, stamina to manage the fight into the championship rounds.

Brandon Moreno is currently the number one ranked Flyweight who many believe should have received the shot at Figueiredo’s title a few weeks ago in place of Perez. Moreno arrives to this fight the only real threat to Figueiredo at this time as I handicap this weight class.

Moreno will be the taller fighter by two inches, he’s six years younger than the Champ and he’ll own a two-inch arm reach advantage. Figueiredo has fought ten times since 2017 and in all but one of those match-ups, he’s been the taller, longer, larger fighter. Moreno’s physical attributes coupled with his style of fighting do put him in position to test Figueiredo and take him deep into this bout.

Moreno, a Mexican fighter is an accumulation striker who damages opponents over the course of time with high pace and striking volume. He does not have Figueiredo’s power but he is athletic, well-rounded and he’s been in the octagon with the top flyweight fighters in the world.

Moreno would be the first Mexican UFC Champion and the young man wants it badly. He’s a little crazy, tough as nails and talented enough to take this champion deep. Couple that with his deep desire to make a Country steeped in fighting pride proud and you have a dangerous opponent and one that surely has a path to victory.

The abundantly confident Figueiredo’s plan will be to take this fight to Moreno from the opening bell and pressure him into a slugfest then a mistake where Figueiredo can put out the challenger’s lights. If this plan is ineffective however I wonder how Figueiredo will react?

Moreno’s plan must involve movement, evasion and at the same time pressure and unpredictability. He must promote and endure a dangerous onslaught in the early rounds and do everything in his power to tax the Champion and force him to fight into the third round and later.

In the later stages of this fight the energy expenditure from Figueiredo will begin to manifest itself in a slower more deliberate effort on the Champions part which will enable Moreno’s confidence to soar and his accumulation to mount.

Moreno has fought main event fights and five rounds prior while Figueiredo has NEVER been past the third.

It’s unusual to make two aggressive weight cuts like each of these men are doing in three weeks (ask Tony Ferguson), so the weigh-in process for this fight is key especially for Figueiredo.

Of note: The UFC presented Figueiredo with fifty thousand dollars cash for his performance in his last bout though I believe it was more to entice him to acquiesce to this fight on such short notice. Nonetheless he remained in Las Vegas after his last bout to train and be under the care of the UFC who offered to help him manage his diet and conditioning for this bout.

I suspect Figueiredo’s biggest challenge may be success itself and I can’t help but wonder about the last three weeks. Figueiredo who has come from absolute poverty, in Vegas for three weeks with fifty large in his pocket absolutely concerns me with regard to his focus and his ability to fight effectively for five full rounds.

This bout opened Figueiredo -250 which was high in my judgement. At current pricing or better the Moreno side is an official release as well the Over 2.5 rounds but….

as usual I’ll remain patient as both of these fighters competed just three weeks ago and the weight cut back to 125lbs. is sure to affect Figueiredo and it may well affect Moreno also. Plus, we may see more favorite money push the price on Moreno up past the +300 mark.

Fight total: 2.5 Under -115

Tony Ferguson -165 vs. Charles Oliviera +145 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

Ferguson at thirty-six years old must fight his way back into elite position within the lightweight division of the UFC after enduring a beating of the ages in his last fight against Justin Gaethje this past May. Ferguson is dangerously well versed in all aspects of MMA and he supplements those skills with tremendous toughness and finishing ability. Before his fight with Gaethje Ferguson had been on a torrid winning streak although the manner in which he won some of those fights may have taken more toll on him that he or others realized.

Ferguson’s traditionally been regarded as a cardio machine. His trademark is the comprehensive, strenuous training he undergoes each and every day prior to every fight. That exorbitant effort to train as only he does couple that with his age not to mention the thorough beating he absorbed some months ago and in bouts previous to that one force me to consider that Ferguson’s skills, not his commitment or desire have waned.

When it goes in the fight game….it goes quickly and Tony Ferguson will have to prove that he is not washed and he’ll have to do it against a killer absolutely everyone in the division has been ducking.

Charles Oliviera is a former Featherweight fighter who strained to make the 145lb. weight. Now competing as a Lightweight Oliviera looks fresh, strong, quick more explosive as well the boxing component of his striking has improved drastically. Ranked seventh in the division Oliviera is dangerous anywhere a fight takes place, he has tremendous confidence/momentum and he’s finally getting a fight where he can display his talents. Up until Saturday Oliviera’s biggest issue in the division was finding a fight, now he has a main event type platform to display to the mixed martial arts world his skills.

Ferguson to his credit did not balk at such a dangerous fight which further displays the warrior mentality of Ferguson. Oliviera on the other hand desires what Ferguson has and a pelt like Ferguson’s on Oliviera’s mantle solidifies him as the next one to compete for the Lightweight title.

This fight is going to be absolute bedlam.

Oliviera +150

Fight total: 2.5 Under -150

Daniel Pineda -150 vs. Cub Swanson +130 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Thirty-five-year-old Pineda’s record shows a win over Herbert Burns in August which seems to be the fuel for his being favored in this bout. A closer look into the Burns fight though and we realize that he effectively did NOT train for the bout and came in over indulged and over confident against a formidable fighter in the UFC. Pineda is in fact a formidable fighter in the UFC.

Thirty-seven-year-old Swanson finds himself an underdog in this fight. He’s fought against and lost to four of the absolute elite in the division prior to injuring himself in 2019 and being forced to sit out until now for recovery. Swanson’s durable, experienced and in a great position as an underdog to win this fight. In fact, it’s my judgement that this fight should be closer to a pick-em.

Lean Swanson +130

Fight total: 2.5 Over -125

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

--updated 12-12-20 7am PT--

Figueiredo -325 vs. Moreno +280

I believe Figueiredo should be -175 to -190 in this bout and that this one does in fact get past the third round. Therefore I handicap opportunity with Moreno +280 and the Over 2.5 +100.

Ferguson -175 vs. Oliviera +150

If this fight dropped a year ago or better yes, ferguson would be the position but we’re handicapping fighters as they compete TODAY and the 31 year old Oliviera who has been ducked by everyone in the division is finally getting a chance to kick down the impediments to him receiving a title shot. I believe with his best outing he beats Ferguson tonight.

Oliviera +150

Fiziev -140 vs. Moicano +120

I had actually released Fiziev as underdog prior to these fighters first scheduled bout but now the favorite has turned to Fiziev who I believe is talented and capable but he’s also stepping up in class against a man who’s been in with much better and will hold height and length advantages as well a more established grappling/ground game.

Moicano +120

Dern -180 vs. Jandiroba +160

The UFC desperately wants Dern to be in position to be a poster child for woman’s MMA in the UFC and they’ve allowed her to pick opponents and manage her career up to this point. Finally she gets a challenger much in the likeness of Amanda Ribas who beat Dern as she faces Jandiroba. Though it’s cold to point out that Jandiroba has every bit the fight game as Dern what she also has are looks that could scare a bulldog off a meatwagon whereas Dern looks like a model.

Jandiroba has many reasons to bring her best into the octagon tonight and I feel the fade of Dern is justified here.

Jandiroba +160 

Quarantillo -170 vs. Tucker +150

I’ll use Billy Q as leg one of an open ended one unit parlay which I’ll fill in next week’s fight card….

Quanantillo -170/ OPEN

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC Hermansson v. Vettori: Joker, smoker, midnight toker - 12/5/2020

We’re marching toward the end of 2020 and I must say that while the year has been challenging on many levels it has also been rewarding. Rewarding in that the sport I love was thrust into sole spotlight of the gambling world for weeks in a row this past summer with all eyeballs upon us.

Not only was 2020 a banner year for GambLou.com profitability, it was also a year where through the tenacity and business savvy of the UFC that mixed martial arts at its highest level and form solidified itself as a major World sport.

Here’s to many more year end recaps proclaiming the success and growth of MMA!

As is custom, I’ll post my ‘Point Spread Weekly’ article below with its release followed buy updated comments and final positions.

Let’s Fight

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.

--originally published 12-02-20 Point Spread Weekly—

It was refreshing to witness a 6-4 UNDERDOG result from last week’s UFC event. It’s but a couple times a year that dogs beat favorites but when they bite it makes for a profitable evening.

Last week Insight the Octagon’s release, Gina Mazany -135 finished Rachel Ostovich in the later third round. Mazany closed -190 so readers had the best of the number for that fight. Obtaining a better than market number is always a goal of the profitable investor.

With three fight cards remaining in 2020 Insight the Octagon results stand: 38-27 +18.97u

Marvin Vettori -135 vs. Jack Hermansson +115 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

This week we have another example of how styles make for great intrigue in fights. Last week we were scheduled to see the slugger vs. the wrestler compete and this week we’ll witness a polished submission specialist with capable striking against an aggressive, powerful kickboxer who is a capable grappler. 

Thirteenth ranked Middleweight Marvin Vettori is the kickboxing based fighter who is decorated with a blue belt in BJJ. He’s aggressive, forward pressing and powerful in his pursuit of engagement. Vettori, who can be quite emotional, must be measured in this bout and maintain an even mindedness against an opponent such as this. He must manage distance/space which will enable him to attack from a stand-up position using an array of power punches, bludgeoning kicks, and piercing elbows.

Vettori fought current Champion Israel Adesanya to a split decision in April 2018. In that fight he was very competitive despite being inexperienced. His competitiveness in that bout and the confidence gained by going the distance with Adesanya fuels his intensity to earn another crack at the champion. Vettori is an ascending fighter who will enter the top ten in this division with a win Saturday.

Jack ‘the Joker’ Hermansson is fourth ranked in the division. He holds a slight edge in the level of competition faced as well he’ll be the taller man with a three-inch reach advantage arms (6” legs).

Hermansson hopes Vettori charges him like a bull pursues a matador making the task of getting this Italian agitator to the ground much easier. However, should Vettori take a measured, tactical approach then Hermansson will have to ‘earn’ his way inside the pocket of a mad power puncher in order to clasp onto the Italian and drag him to the floor.

Vettori has fought three BJJ, submission specialist in recent fights going 1-1-1 and in Hermansson he’ll face the best submission fighter in the division. He must keep this standing.

Hermansson has faced three true power strikers since 2017 and he’s realized a 1-2 result in those fights. Hermansson, when tagged can lose some confidence. He can be bullied at times by power strikers so he must smother the pressing power puncher and find a way to rake him to the floor.

Where this fight is held will go a long way in determining the winner.

Vettori’s aggression and forward pressure fighting may expose him to being susceptible to a refined submission specialist like Hermansson but that same aggression and forward pressure have shown to be the best way to dominate Hermansson and take him out.

I lean Vettori here but will hold off pending weigh-ins.

Vettori opened -120

Fight total: 2.5 Over -120

Jamahal Hill -165 vs. Ovince St. Preux +145 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

OSP is thirty-seven years old and still retains a top fifteen ranking among light heavyweights in the UFC. OSP is pretty much self-made. An ex linebacker for the University of Tennessee St. Preux is athletic, explosive, unorthodox and at times quite inconsistent.

OSP has a depth of experience and has faced the division’s finest. St Preux has altered the trajectory of other young aspiring UFC fighters hoping to use him as a stepping stone for their own career, see Alonzo Menifield among others.

The handicap with St. Preux is determining what form of effort one may expect to receive from him fight to fight as he has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career. On any given night he could dominate…or be dominated.

Hill enters the new flavor of the month in that he is the younger man by eight years, this will be his third UFC fight. In his first two bouts Hill displayed dynamic range, quickness, precision striking and electric power albeit against fighters of dubious capability.

Hill will be taller but won’t have a reach advantage and both men are left-handed which compounds the potential for oddity in this fight. This may be one of the best watching fights of the evening. I regard OSP as live.

Hill opened -170 for this fight

Fight total: 1.5 Over -160

Roman Dolidze -195 vs. John Allan +170 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Dolidze enters off of a debut win against a fighter in Khadis Ibragimov who was perhaps the least qualified UFC fighter in any weight class in the organization’s history. For my handicapping, Dolidze coming into this fight off of a win like that leaves much to prove.

John Allan arrives to this bout off a three-round war with rising light heavyweight Mike Rodriguez. Allan is tough, durable and able to go a full three rounds as witnessed against Rodriguez a fight he took on less than two weeks’ notice and won although the result was later ruled no contest.

Allan opened +135 and he is now +165 which I believe is based on his being reprimanded after the Rodriguez fight by USADA. Allan is focused and looking to redeem himself off that spectacular effort against Rodriguez. Monitor this price and jump it at its apex but make no mistake that I’m on Allan here.

Allan +170

Fight total: 1.5 Over -130

Last month Insight the Octagon released Aljamain Sterling +120 vs. Petr Yan. That fight has been postponed until February FYI so those bets all come down. We’ll have more to say on that one soon.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading.

--updated 12-5-20 7:46am PT—

Vettori -135 vs. Hermansson +115

This main event is a fascinating clash of styles and mentality of fighter. I believe Vettori must find a way to take the Swede into the later rounds, tax him and make him succumb. Hermansson meanwhile must be respected in this spot for he’s wily and has a wealth of experience to go with his excellent level of competition faced.

I’ll take Vettori -135 or better in this fight. Use patience however because there could be some late Joker cash that could reduce the emotionally charged Italian’s (excuse the redundancy) price a bit as we approach the drop of the puck.

Vettori -135 or better

Hill -175 vs. St. Preux +155

I do like St. Preux here but I’ll hold off on making him an official release. OSP missed weight which does provide him great advantage in this bout. Rather than strain to make the contractual weight OSP decided that it made more sense in his career path to give up some dough in order to hold advantage which he now does. Let’s see what he does with it. If I do anything with this bout it will be during the card and released via @Twitter….

Santos -220 vs. De la Rosa +200

Fight cancelled

Santos as -200 favorite is an obtuse price no matter who she is fighting. De la Rosa is a tall, long, young talented grinder. She’s also getting overlooked in this match-up.

De la Rosa +200

Dolidze -220 vs. Allan +190

My above synopsis stands save for the fact that I’ll gladly take the +190 now….

Allan +190

Evloev -650 vs. Landwehr +475

Fight cancelled

Evloev made me look smart a couple cards back when he beat a tough Mike Gundy so we know he is one grizzled Russian grinder. That said, he now faces a very different kind of UFC fighter than he has in his previous two when he faced men with wrestling chops. Landwehr is long, lanky striker who is game, powerful, wild and unpredictable. I think Landwehr is going to touch the incoming grappler, what effect that has will be why we watch. Evloev will be tested as long as this remains on the feet…how long that is remains to be seen. Releassed yesterday on VSiN's 'Rush Hour'.

Landwehr +470 .5u

Good luck and Thank you for reading


UFC Vegas 15 Smith vs. Clark: Hand to Pan'demic - 11/28/2020

Good Saturday fight Enthusiasts. The next three fight cards of the year are ahead of us. This week’s card though marred by cancellation of the main event offers some betting opportunity in my view. I’ll post a few thoughts after my weekly article for VSiN published Wednesday. I hope everyone is having a great weekend with loved ones, friends and Famiglia.

Let’s Fight

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.

--originally published 11-25-20 Point Spread Weekly—

The UFC marches forward this Thanksgiving week with a fight card that is steeped with matchups worthy of investment. Strawweight women to a top tier Heavyweight main event comprise the twelve-fight slate. Prelims are set to commence at 4pm PT while the main card begins at 7pm PT televised by espn+/espn.

Last week Tim Means +135 outclassed Mike Perry in a three round decision while underdog Brandon Royval was taken out in dominant fashion by Brandon Moreno. By now readers are aware that splitting underdogs in moneyline wagering is a practice I rely upon to matriculate profit. While this is not successful always, experienced savvy handicappers are more than aware of the practice and many like myself employ it religiously.

Favorites this year in the UFC are 265-125-13 or 65.7% which is about the norm over the last several years so pairing underdogs effectively is no easy task! Making matters more difficult in the short term, favorites over the last five fight cards are on a torrid streak and stand 41-11-2 or 76%!

Insight the Octagon’s single point of focus will be to matriculate profit over the last few events of 2020 and hope that we may encourage those underdogs to bark up before the New Year.

2020 Insight the Octagon: 37-27 +17.97u

Curtis Blaydes -300 vs. Derrick Lewis +250 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Main Event

This fight was cancelled due to Blaydes contracting Covid.

Anthony Smith -120 vs. Devin Clark +105 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

Devin Clark is an ascending talent in the Light heavyweight division who utilizes a wrestling base to supplement a solid striking game. Clark has devastating kicks and is most effective by utilizing movement and volume striking as he has not displayed much power in his previous bouts.

Anthony Smith is sixth ranked in this division and while this may seem a mismatch on paper, in reality I expect it to be quite competitive. Smith has ranking, the more impressive body of work, vast experience and substantial size/reach advantages over his opponent yet the results of his last two fights show him to be slow, lethargic, unable to fire effectively and without able defense. Smith seems washed to me.

Based on what I have witnessed from each of these men’s performances over the past eighteen months, the conclusion is that these are fighters moving in opposite career directions.

If Clark put a pelt like Smith’s on his mantle more prestigious and lucrative fights are in front of him. If Smith should look dominant in getting by Clark, he may face another top contender but I have deep reservations about how much fight Smith has remaining in him especially with this relatively quick turnaround off extremely poor results in his last two fights.

Gina Mazany -145 vs. Rachel Ostovich +125 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Mazany has been in the octagon with the many top women’s Bantamweights and while her results have been mixed at best, the fact remains that the level of her competition has been impressive even though her results against these ladies has not been.

Ostovich is a Hawaiian fighter so we know she is tough, that’s where Ostovich’s advantages end unfortunately. This fighter is not UFC caliber in my opinion. The fact that she’s an attractive person and offered the organization some media splash helped her gain access to the UFC but her fighting acumen is substandard and her skillset limited.

Mazany practices an unrelenting pressure style which will factor well Saturday night. She’s in a relationship with veteran fighter/grappler Tim Elliott and has recently changed camps to Glory and Extreme Couture where she’s been grinding on her game with Elliott’s tutoring as well as his camp. Mazany is in a fine spot Saturday.

Mazany -135

--updated 11-28-20 7:30am PT--

Smith -135 vs. Clark +125

Now a main event this fight is scheduled for twenty-five minutes not fifteen. Is that going to be a big deal? I believe it does factor as benefiting the hungrier more focused fighter and to me that is Clark. He’s striving to achieve while it is my opinion that Smith is clawing to hang on. Five scheduled rounds suits Clark and his fighting style better in my estimation. Interesting to note that as a three round fight the total was 2.5 Over -135. Now the total is lined 3.5 Under -140. I lean to Clark here but will not release this fight just yet. If I do it will be via @Twitter.

Baeza -185 vs. Sato +165

The ESPN ‘Behind the Bets’ podcast went early this week and on it I released this fight to go Over 1.5 -120. That price has risen but I still feel the durability of Sato is what allows me to believe that this fight gets into the third or goes to decision.

Over 1.5 -120

Carlyle -185 vs. Algeo +160

This fight comes down to whether Algeo can manage the first seven minutes of this fight by moving, maintaining distance and punishing the unrelenting forward pressing ‘Alpha ginger’. Carlyle has surely worked on his ability to take the fight a full fifteen after he gassed horribly in his sophomore UFC fight vs. Quarantillo.

Algeo was bested via hard fought decision in his short notice UFC debut by a game and motivated Ricardo Lamas who retired after the bout. Algeo will have a full camp plus height and reach advantages. I regard Algeo as a live Labrador here.

Algeo +160

Sanders -160 vs. Maness +140

Sanders last competed inside the octagon in February of 2019 when he beat a washed and withering Renan Barao. In previous fights Sanders has seemed to display a lack of focus as well as a lack of ability to grind, grapple and persevere if his fights enter that third and final round however for the first ten minutes, he can be gnarly opponent to face.

Maness won his debut fight against a short notice opponent via hard fought decision. He arrives to this bout the younger, taller, longer fighter and with time to prepare for Sanders this fight will depend on Maness’ ability to remain on his feel and at distance so he can batter the incoming wrestler on his way into the pocket as he attempts to take this fight to the floor.

Maness +140

Mazany -190 vs. Ostovich +165

I must say that this increase in price on Mazany was bound to happen once people did their due diligence. This is why early handicapping can be beneficial. I thing this is a fight between a nice-looking young lady who is athletic and a mean young mixed martial artist who is hungry.

Mazany -135

I believe Mazany wins this fight and perhaps even finished Ostovich as Ostovich has been submitted by well less apt fighters than Mazany.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 255 Figueiredo vs. Perez: Dominant Deiveson? - 11/21/2020

Where have all the hound dogs gone?

Over the last four UFC slates Favorites are running a feverish 33-7-2 or 78.5% which makes deriving dollars from dogs difficult. That said, our last four UFC cards have resulted in an 8-8 performance +3.75u so we’re navigating this storm pretty well realizing however that the last three cards are showing a slight loss.

I monitor my betting habits/results constantly in an attempt to earn every penny possible and to reduce mental mistakes which thankfully are few. Today I smell manure in the streets which means only one thing…. I hope.

Below is my article for this week’s ‘Point Spread weekly’ magazine published by VSiN. I’ve also had/have the pleasure of appearing on several podcasts and radio programs weekly and can assure you that the final releases are reflective of those exact same releases.

Let’s Fight

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.

--originally published 11-18-20 Point Spread Weekly—

UFC 255 from Las Vegas APEX Center is one of five remaining 2020 events the organization has on the 2020 docket. This card features several fights worthy of potential investment so in this week’s column I’ll take an abbreviated look at a handful of match-ups in order to prepare fight enthusiasts for the big Saturday slate.

Last week’s parlay release of Alhassan <1.0u> was another poor favorite release on my part. I anticipate no chalk parlays as we close out the year to say the least. Sean Strickland ended up closing +110, he KO’d the young, game yet low fight IQ Brendan Allen which offsets the Alhassan debacle. The Anders vs. Arroyo fight was cancelled after weigh-ins so there was no play there.

2020 Insight the Octagon:  36-26 +17.62u

Deiveson Figueiredo -300 vs. Alex Perez +250 Flyweight (125lbs.) Championship

There are several dominant champions spread throughout the twelve weight classes in the UFC and any discussion of dominance within one’s division must include flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo.

What makes Figueiredo unique and sets him apart from others in the Flyweight division is his massive size, especially on fight night when he competes at +/-153lbs., his extreme athleticism, his precision timing/striking and his abundant power. Figueiredo works best by aggressively walking opponents down then battering them.

If the dominant Flyweight champion does have an Achilles heel however it would be his ground game or lack thereof.

In most battles, opponents are not determined enough, skilled enough or conditioned enough to work their way through the punishment incurred striving to gain inside position on Figueiredo. But the way to compete with Figueiredo is to in fact close distance on him and wrestle him up just as Justin Formiga did last March when he decisioned Figueiredo. That said, Figueiredo has had time to address this known shortcoming and couple it with his extreme size which translates into a formidable take down defense.

Fourth ranked flyweight Alex Perez is three years younger than the Champion and an inch taller but that’s where his advantages end. He’s not faced near the level of competition that Deiveson has and their one of their common opponents (Joe Benavidez) finished Perez while Figueiredo trucked Benavidez on two separate back to back occasions.  A second common opponent, Jussier Formiga displayed the wrestling to beat Figueiredo while Perez finished the aged Formiga in brutal leg kick fashion in his last fight.

So, Perez does enter this fight with the momentum winning his last three and he has the wrestling background to try to take Figueiredo to the floor. The key to this fight lies in Perez’s ability to close distance, get this to the floor and tax the champion where he is most uncomfortable which seems a tall order from this perspective.

I regard Figueiredo as a strong favorite.

Champion Valentina Shevchenko -1200 vs. Jenn Maia +750 Woman’s Flyweight Championship

By my view, Shevchenko is on equal footing to Amanda Nunes as the most dominant pound for pound woman’s fighters in UFC History. Yes, Amanda Nunes defeated Shevchenko twice but that was at 135lbs. and Shevchenko went up from her 125lb. weight class to compete against Nunes at Nunes weight! Believe me when I say that this Shevchenko is as lethal a modern mixed martial artist as there is today…men or women.

Her opponent, third ranked Jenn Maia is walking into as thorough a ‘whuppin’ as is Alex Perez in the main event. In this case Maia’s weaponry is BJJ and her success is linked to her gaining the inside on Shevchenko then managing to take this fight to the mat.

The one issue is that Shevchenko is more versed everywhere than is anyone in the division, it’s that simple. For Maia to have any shot here she must clasp onto then roll with Shevchenko on the floor and try to catch her with some slick submission but the odds of that are long.

Mike Perry -155 vs. Tim Means +135 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Tim Means is a sixteen-year MMA veteran whose career has spanned three weigh classes over forty-four professional fights. Means will have four inches of arm/leg reach as well height advantage in a fight that figures to be a stand-up war. I award experience and physical advantages to Means.

Mean’s opponent is a man who can easily intimidate. Mike Perry is innately mean, overly aggressive, inner driven and likely not playing with a full deck of cards. Recent behavior away from the octagon can be researched on your own but part of Perry’s mystique is mirage.

Perry is strong as a mule, unrelenting with his forward pressure, telegraphing with his power strikes and able to sustain incredible amounts of physical damage. Together this makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone without years of mixed martial arts experience. In fact, the style perry employs makes him just about the perfect opponent.

Perry has youth, strength and maniacal mental ability yet Means has a depth of experience and the ability to use movement and precision striking to calmly keep Perry on the outside where he can pick and peck his way to a decision.

Means +135

Cynthia Calvillo -170 vs. Kaitlin Chookagain +145 Women’s Flyweight

Calvillo is the fourth ranked flyweight and was scheduled to fight an elimination bout in the division before it was cancelled and her opponent took an ‘easy way out’ fight instead. That forced Calvillo to find another opponent. At least Calvillo is showing mettle by facing second ranked Flyweight Kaitlin Chookagain who just fought and was finished by Jessica Andrade October 18th.

Calvillo who fights out of team Alpha Male is nasty to her roots. She fights using unrelenting pressure wrestling, toughness and grit.

Chookagain is a fighter I choose in October to beat Andrade. That handicap missed but I’m considering coming right back to her here as she has the take down defense, movement and striking to keep Calvillo at distance and paint her with strikes. Chookagain has experience, five inches of height as well as arm/leg reach advantages and I regard her as live in this fight but will wait until later in the week to take in weigh-ins which are so critical in handicapping the UFC in 2020.

Joaquin Buckley -275 vs. Jordan Wright +225 Middleweight (185lbs.)

What we remember from Buckley is last month’s stunning back kick that knocked Impa Kasangay completely out on his feet. Timbur! We don’t know a lot about Buckley but we do know he was iced himself two fights back by rapidly rising contender Kevin Holland, so he is fallible.

Buckley is short and compact for the division and possesses profuse punching power coupled with a full flavor of bad intention. Next of course are the fans who are convinced from one dynamic kick that Buckley is the real deal. Myself, I’ll have to see more.

His opponent, Jordan Wright goes by the moniker ‘the Beverly Hills Ninja’. This chap fights out of Beverly Hills and looks the part of a movie star playing UFC competitor especially early in his career when his skills were dull and his opponents’ statues.

At 6’2” Wright will be the taller fighter with substantial reach advantage over Buckley but his level of competition is still a bit lacking to be honest though his last two opponents were worthy. This fight will be interesting in that we’ll get to see if Buckley is a legitimate threat within this division while also determining if this pasty white suburban kid from Rodeo Drive can fight.

Lean Wright

Brandon Moreno -195 vs. Brandon Royval +160 Flyweight

Moreno is the second ranked Flyweight all set to fight Alex Perez before Perez got the call to be in the main event. Many including myself thought that the opportunity should have gone to Moreno so I can see the Mexican fighter having a little extra motivation coming into this bout.

Moreno, who gives Mike Perry a run for the title of looniest fighter in the UFC mixes Muay Thai striking, BJJ and erratic movement to attack opponents. Moreno has earned his way to his second ranking within the division and he is determined to fight for a championship. Moreno enters this bout peaking and he’ll need every advantage he can muster for this opponent is most dangerous.

Royval has had two impressive wins since he hit the UFC a few months ago and he has been rewarded with this fight, the winner of which is likely to be the next challenger to the Flyweight title. Royval, a southpaw is a high-volume striker who employs movement to create angles for a striking attack comprised of fists, elbows and knees. He’ll own height and length advantages over Moreno giving him advantage in the stand-up. It will be interesting to learn how Moreno plans to deal with the physicality, pressure and striking of Royval.

Moreno’s experience and grit will be tested against a young, talented, carefree fighter who has little to lose and everything to gain.

Royval +160

There are actually a couple of other fights I am targeting. I’ll have updates later in the week and a full synopsis of each release Saturday morning at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

--updated 11-21-20 6:40am PT—

Figueiredo -270 vs. Perez +235

The question in my mind is when does Figueiredo finish Perez?

Shevchenko -1700 vs. Maia +1050

See above only replace Figueiredo with Shevchenko….

Perry -110 vs. Means -110

This price clearly shifted on news of Perry’s missed weight. If Means can survive the early fury from Perry then I believe he is in position to paint this guy’s fence. Perry win lose or draw needs some assistance in his personal life and I hope he can get it.

Means +135

Moreno -180 vs. Royval +160

This is going to be one hell of a fire fight. Both are top five talents in the division and the winner is next in line to compete for the belt. Moreno has experience and guile but Royval has momentum some range and a more evasive strike defense which I believe will be the difference in this fight. Moreno as -125 or -130 OK but his current price is not reflective of the fight, I believe we’ll witness.

Royval +160

Buckley -240 vs. Wright +210

This is a shaky favorite in Buckley but this is also a shaky overall fighter in Wright. I feel Wrights athleticism and size could pose problems for the more compact power striker Buckley. Wright was released earlier in the week via ESPN behind the bets +240.

Wright +240

Patience as this may move higher

Craig -175 vs. Rua +150

Craig the grappler needs to keep this standing and old man Rua who was a decent favorite in this bout a year or so ago must get this fight to the floor or he’ll get pieced up. Flyer

Rua +150

Jouban -150 vs. Gooden +130

Two ships passing in the night. Jouban is not to be underestimated here as he’ll surely own the stand-up. That said, I believe Gooden wrestle’s him up from bell to bell.

Gooden +130

GambLou.com 

Profitable Sports Gaming