UFC Nashville Swanson vs. Lobov: Music City melee - 4/22/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night Nashville.  Our recent UFC results have mandated a more refined approach to our fight releases.  We’ll be reducing selections and taking a more targeted approach as we move forward into 2017.  

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line up to date results for all sporting events we publicize is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

St. Preux -155 vs. De Lima +145

De Lima is used to being the larger more powerful man in the Octagon in his fights and against OSP he’ll surely be the larger man as he missed weight by 5 pounds!  Missing by that much and weighing in as early as he did is a ‘Cowboy’* move that we feel is unfair and cheating for the fighter is saying, ‘to hell with being a professional and making weight….I’ll give up purse money in order to hold advantage as I don’t want to tax myself to make weight’.  This unethical move is unprofessional and should cost the fighter more than simply money. 

De Lima is an aggressive forward stalking slugger whose power is profuse for four minutes but who quickly morphs into a deliberate, telegraphing, stagnant statue after that.  He’ll need to touch Ovince early or he’ll be exposed for his cardio is thin, his weigh is an issue and his path to victory is clearly one dimensional.  OSP is the more athletic, better conditioned fighter physically and if he is prepared to mentally fight a smart tactical fight he is in one fine spot tonight fighting in front of his homies in Tennessee.  Provided St. Preux has learned from past performance and provided he realizes that he must weather De Lima’s early onslaught this fight should turn his way late in the first round as the Brazilian slows and OSP throws.  If the ‘Sunday shots’ from De Lima don’t find their mark early and this fight gets to the second round it will be OSP that will hold advantage for he’s the better conditioned fighter who by plan should be able to drag De Lima to the deck and mash his mug into the mat.  OSP opened -270 and has been faded to the current value opportunity that is -155.  

St. Preux -155 

We'll have a couple mangy mutt releases later today as we're allowing for maximum value....

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

*Cowboy Oliveira pulled this stunt in November against Will Brooks in Portland.  It’s straight out cheating and the penalty should be far greater as we have voiced on several occasions.


NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Passion: Updated - 4/21/2017

Good day Puck Enthusiasts.  Here’s a recap of all NHL Playoff passion activity…

NHL

In Round I GambLou.com Clients are 8-3 +7.76 units.  We’ve had three Futures mature; Columbus (1 unit loss), Hawks for series (.50 unit) and finally the Pred series win (+1.55 unit).  So with Futures stand 1-2 + .05 unit.  Remember, we account to the penny. 

We’ll track all Puck Profit as we progress through this Tournament into Futures results and Round by Round results since our gaming format was set up in that manner.  We’ll provide a total NHL result at the end of the tournament.

Also please note that on special occasion we try to encourage website hits by releasing positions via @Twitter.  We make it clear they are actual releases we ourselves have invested in and we track every release we ask folk to invest in! Last night we gave the Preds -1.5 goals +255 for a half unit which was a clear winner.  ‘Swing it Easy’.

Here are the Futures we have that are still alive although one just by a gasp….

Ducks Cup +1500; Ducks Conference +660

Preds Conference +1200

Habs Cup +1400; Habs Conference +868 (2u)

We hold special passion for the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs and work diligently for Client profitability as well our own pride.  Interested Clients should give me a shout at lou@gamblou.com for any questions or comments.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: Puck Profits & Fight frustration - 4/17/2017

Welcome Gaming Enthusiasts to Money Morning where we account for the week’s gaming business profits.  Regular accounting greatly differentiates us from the rest of the gaming universe for we are businessmen as opposed to gamblers and we seperate ourselves by posting all results publicly.  Weekly accounting is mandatory in operating a successful business.  We account for all incoming/outgoing capitol.  Win percentages and ROI are also provided for each sport we cover. 

-Let’s account-

NHL

We’re are passionate about our love and profitability in Hockey playoffs.  Thus far through Round I we are 4-2 + 3.59 units.  Our Futures are all alive and working, here’s a recap of those:

Ducks Cup +1500; Ducks Conference +660

Habs Cup +1400; Habs Conference +868 (2u)

Preds series +155, Preds Conference +1200

Columbus Series +145

There’s plenty more passionate puck ahead and our start is decent but there is more work to be done.  Stay with us through Round I and into the later rounds of playoff Hockey for the potential to produce profuse profitability!

UFC

Rarely do I get agitated, emotional or upset over happenings in the realm of Profitable Sports Gaming but today regarding the UFC we are all three.  Few are as passionate about the UFC as we are and few conduct the work and Due Diligence we perform to be excellent at it.  That said our start this year is quite frustrating as our results are unsatisfactory.

UFC 2017:  12-28 -4.67u win percentage 36.36% -4.6u ROI -12%

These numbers burn me to publish yet they are the actual earned figures.  Searching for explanations we must first look to ourselves and strive to improve our win percentages.  Second we look at results and realize that this year in the UFC Chalk is making us choke!  Favorites through UFC Fox 24 are 76-32 for the year or 70.3%.  Needless to say dog chasers will be disappointed when chalk forces us to choke on these kinds of results.  Our reaction to this feast of Favorites will be to reduce our releases, compress the wager amounts and ride our way through this.

I’ll make one claim to UFC clients right now.  We WILL be profitable in the UFC this year and we DO have a rabid run coming soon.  We urge players to stay the course and watch how we handle this temporary adversity and convert it to pound it out profitability and deliver deposits.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


NHL Passion Play: Futures - 4/16/2017

Welcome Puckheads to our release of the NHL Fuutres.  We post thise today to let you kow that you missed out on a great opportunity for Playoff Puck Profits but it is not too late!  We're available by the round.  Please scroll below for more info or contact me at lou@gamblou.com. We're not finished playing value to increase our bottom line in Playoff Hockey!  Here's our write ups from this past Wednesday...

Wednesday 4-12 1:30PM EST

Welcome Enthusiasts to GambLou.com’s future prognostications for the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs.  Our playoff hockey philosophy was covered in yesterday’s post and is available below so please ingest this as it is our blueprint to Puck Profitability.  Please note we need to set up shop for the duration of the playoffs so please bear with us as we have to allocate Futures monies for these releases.  We're trying to be frugal with output while attempting to maximize return!

The Philosophy:  ‘From the goal out’

Our philosophy in wagering on the Stanley Cup Tournament lies in our belief that true Stanley Cup contenders play hockey ‘from the goal out’.  Simply put any team we invest in must have a world class net minder(s) in goal protected by a group of dynamic defensemen who stonewall scoring chances thus insulating the net.  Finally if our platoon can score a few goals then we consider that a bonus.  We never toil over a team’s tallies because if the opponent cannot score a team cannot lose.  We view defense more critically than we do offense in the quest for the Cup.  We won’t be burdened worrying about a team with a less than a world class minder and/or a blue line that plays putrid defense for we shop for net minding, defense, special teams, drive and focus in determining who gets our investment.  We’ve been following this formula in our Stanley Cup Tournament successes for decades and we know that this template works for us.  Our formula of dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and precision Money Management provide a prescription for Puck profit that we wish to share with you this year.

Any teams/positions we release be it for a Series, the Conference or the Stanley Cup must absolutely follow a ‘from the goal out’ theory of hockey because no other practice will allow a capable club to clasp the Cup.

Pricing Format

Stanley Cup Season package is $124.99 which provides Clients will all Futures, Series and any daily positions for all four rounds of the Playoff season.  It's our most comprehensive package.

Round by Round is available for $55.00 but this do not include any Futures released at the beginning of the Tournament.  

Here’s how our Playoff packages will be set up: Clients who have purchased the whole season will be allocated a total of 50 tokens (25 when they purchase the package then another 25 tokens will be added after the purchase of Round I.  We will divide the Playoff season into 5 segments each requiring 10 tokens; Futures, Rounds 1,2,3 and the Finals.  Enthusiasts may also opt to purchase any of the 5 rounds from us for 10 tokens ($55.00).  Clearly there is more value in the full Playoff  package.

It's our goal to be very affordable for the $100.00 player as all of our tracking is based on a one hundred dollar unit and we account for all results daily.    

We work daily to uncover value as the Playoffs evolve so it is not uncommon for us to have Series/Cup positions released during the second or even third round of the playoffs.  We almost always cover Futures wages to insure/enhance the bottom line as we regard Future positions as a tool to insure profitability. 

Let’s Skate-

Wales Conference:  Montreal Canadians

+670 Wales Conference                     +1400 Stanley Cup

*We've since added another unit on the Habs for Wales +1075

Three of the top five teams (odds wise) to hoist the Cup are all located in the bottom side of the Wales Conference bracket.  Rather than swim in those most competitive piranha infested waters we’ll opt to look at the other side of the Wales bracket in order to obtain value and to determine what team adheres to our philosophy of ‘from the goal out’ hockey thus earning themselves a shot to overtake the beast that will present itself in the Conference finals.

The Habs are our choice this year to vie for the Prince of Wales trophy.  The Canadians are anchored in net by Cory Price who is arguably the top net minder in today’s game.  The Habs sport the third lowest GAA at 2.41 and are sound on defense especially considering the addition of Shea Weber who was shipped in this year from Nashville to boost the Canadian leadership, grit, experience and physicality.  Their first round opponent and original six partner NY Rangers enter this series with some uncertainty in net with minder King Henrik toiling with age, coming off an injury and playing behind an only adequate defense.  The only way for the Rags to compete with Montreal is to have Henrik harangue the Habs for the whole of the series and we feel the defense in front of Lunqvuist will make that most difficult even for a team like the Habs that can sometimes struggle to score.  The Habs will sport advantage in almost every category of importance that we track understanding that the one advantage for the Rags is that they do possess a more complete and capable offensive attack (which we choose to discount to some extent) come this time of year.  Two years ago these two met and a hit on G Price by Ranger Kreider put the Habs out in 6, Price out for the playoffs and dashing Montreal’s hopes to hoist.  Price is burning to win a Cup and with the addition of stalwart D Weber and old HC Julien at the helm it is our belief that the Canadians are poised to make a deep run to the Stanley Cup in 2017.

Wales Series Release: 

Columbus fits all the criteria of’ from the goal out’ hockey.  They lack the dynamic names and experience of their foe the Pens but we absolutely love this matchup.  Sure the Bluejackets toiled into the playoffs but we are impressed with their grit, coaching, youth and value!  Pittsburgh will have pride, speed, experience and offensive prowess going for them but they will also be forced to deal with numerous injuries (D Letang, F Malkin and others) which we feel makes them vulnerable on defense and susceptible to a team in the Jackets that are eager to pass over the Pens.

Columbus Blue Jackets +140

Campbell Conference:  Anaheim Ducks

Conference +660           Stanley Cup +1500

In the Campbell we worked long and hard to try to discern which of the two returning teams from last year’s Tournament we wanted to side with before the numbers jumped out at us and forced us to recognize the defensive Ducks.  Last year the Ducks were rolling into the playoffs and were ousted in the first round by the Preds which is a major factor in how we view them this year.  This early ouster embarrassed this veteran laden group but it also provided them a single point of focus for this year…..and that focus we believe will not be more apparent than in this first round series against the Flames.  The Ducks sport a GAA of 2.40 second only to the Caps, they play stout comprehensive defense and at times like the Habs they struggle to score.  We love saying that because this time of year we want minding, defense and oh by the way a tally or two to get us into the next round.  Anaheim is laden with veterans and while Calgary their first round opponent will be one tough series it is our belief that the Duck style of play, their veteran leadership, their early ousting last year and the emergence of young net minder Gibson (who was yanked last year vs. Nashville) will provide them with the singularity of purpose needed to move forward into the second round.  Looking at the Duck pricing one cannot help to think that they are simply being overlooked by the two top groups on the other side of the bracket…..two teams we feel are more than open to upset. Quack.

Campbell Series Release:

Upset alert!  The Preds are real and while they do not tip the charts in GAA we believe that minder Rinne has both the capability to turn a series but the desire.  The Pred D is stout and they can score.  The Preds face a Blackhawk team that resembles the patriots in organizational development and game prowess.  That said, we feel that the deep run made last year by the Preds has this team focused, furious and up to the challenge as this will be the third time these two are pitted against one another in the playoffs.  Chicago won both of those series and while readers are eager to lay down to the Hawks and declare them Western Conference chalk we will be firm in our belief that they are skilled, thinly experienced and formidable but they’re getting long in the tooth, they’re less physical than prior years and only moderately capable on the backside not to mention they have a slew of new players that will be forced from the frying pan into the fire.  In our opinion this series should be close to a pick.  Not only will we invest in the Preds for the Series but we’ll put a pittance on them for the Conference because we absolutely believe they will move into the finals against the Quackers when it is all said and done.

  Predators +155         Conference:  Predators +1200 

For any Daily releases please access the Round I Slate.  Releases will be up daily (if we have any) by 3PM EST…..Thank You

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

If you are reading this you have invested one of our 2017 NHL Stanley Cup Playoff packages.  Thank you and congratulations. You'll be able to access all of our information and strategy right here and we look forward to earning profit in Pucks this year.  As usual Clients may always access me at lou@gamblou.com with questions, issues or discussion.  

Make sure to check back here Wednesday for our Futures releases....those will be up by 4PM EST and all releases will be given with date and time (EST).  Daily releases (if any and we do try to have daily plays) will be released at least 1 hour prior to drop of the puck.....or earlier.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC Fox 24 Johnson vs. Reis: 'Kansas City here I come' - 4/15/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to Kansas City where Demetrius Johnson will attempt to overtake Anderson Silva’s record for most consecutive Championship defenses.  The card tonight features some substantial chalk and with that comes the potential for voracious value!  We’ve conducted our usual comprehensive due diligence and offer you the following release....

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line up to date results for all sporting events we publicize is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Elliott -200 vs. Smolka +180

We released Smolka earlier this week +230 based on value alone for +230 is an overreaction to his past two less than stellar outings coupled with Elliott’s fine showing vs. tonight’s headliner Mighty Mouse.  Since our release the line has contracted to the point where we now possess market advantage.  Elliott will provide a top effort as he fights in front of him home state fans for he is a wiley, experienced, tough, unorthodox fighter.  Smolka must arrive focused and prepared to offer his top effort for another loss or two and he free falls down the fight food chain and toward the fast food unemployment line.  Elliott can be unorthodox but he can also be wild and a bit reckless in his attacking.  Smolka is younger, longer, and larger and he must get Elliott to the ground and try to tangle him up for the tap for his best advantage.  Smolka +180 or better is the target here...

Smolka +230 (released earlier this week)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


2017 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Puck Passion - 4/10/2017

2017 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs:  The Passion of Playoff Puck

-Let’s skate-

Puck Enthusiasts from across the globe are soon to interrupt any/all routine activity in order to witness sixteen hockey teams compete in the greatest tournament in Sport for the most desired championship trophy of Sport, Lord Stanley’s Cup.

Every year we look forward to writing about the passion and respect we hold for this game, its culture and most especially its participants.  What these young players prepare for, undergo and endure in their single minded determination to clasp the Cup after completing an 82 game regular season is physically and mentally astounding.  These capable competitors vying for the Cup this year (and each year) are +/- 202 pounds of pure determination, grit, gristle and mean spiritedness.  Each of the 16 teams vying for the chance to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup hold a singularity of purpose coupled with a ferocious fever to fulfill their lifelong dream.  We soak this tournament up and prepare for it each year with the same singularity of purpose that these young men arrive to the rink with each and every night.  Each team’s enduring displays of championship mettle, sportsmanship, toughness and singularity of purpose is truly a thing to appreciate.  

Wednesday we’ll publish both our Wales and Campbell Conference previews complete with Future releases to win series, each Conference and the Stanley Cup.  Daily release(s) will be available also.  We’ll have Futures, Conference and Round I Series releases Wednesday.

The Philosophy:  ‘From the goal out’

Our philosophy in wagering on the Stanley Cup Tournament lies in our belief that true Stanley Cup contenders play hockey ‘from the goal out’.  Simply put any team we invest in must have a world class net minder(s) in goal protected by a group of dynamic defensemen who stonewall scoring chances thus insulating the net.  Finally if our chosen squad can score a few goals then we consider that a bonus.  We never toil over a team’s tallies because if the opponent cannot score you cannot lose so we view defense well more critically than we do offense in the quest for the Cup.  We won’t be burdened worrying about a team with a less than a world class minder and/or a blue line platoon that play putrid defense for we shop for net minding, defense, special teams and focus in determining who gets our look.  We’ve been following this formula in our Stanley Cup Tournament successes for decades and we know what works for us.  Our formula of dynamic Due Diligence, supreme Selectivity and precision Money Management provide a prescription for Puck profit that we wish to share with you this year.  

Any teams/positions we release Wednesday be it for a Series, the Conference or the Stanley Cup must absolutely follow a ‘from the goal out’ style of hockey because no other style will allow a capable club to clasp the Cup. 

I’ve been to UFC Championship fights, Championship Boxing matches, Super Bowls, All Star games, Final Fours, MLB Championship series and many other forms of sporting events but the electricity in an arena for a playoff hockey game (let alone a Stanley Cup Final) is unrivaled in sport….take my word for it.

Pricing Format

Stanley Cup Season package is $124.99 which provides Clients will all Futures, Series and any daily positions for all four rounds of the Playoff season.  It's our most comprehensive package.

Round by Round is available for $55.00 but this do not include any Futures released at the beginning of the Tournament.  

Here’s how our Playoff packages will be set up: Clients who have purchased the whole season will be allocated a total of 50 tokens (25 when they purchase the package then another 25 tokens will be added after the purchase of Round I.  We will divide the Playoff season into 5 segments each requiring 10 tokens; Futures, Rounds 1,2,3 and the Finals.  Enthusiasts may also opt to purchase any of the 5 rounds from us for 10 tokens ($55.00).  Clearly there is more value in the full Playoff  package.

It's our goal to be very affordable for the $100.00 player as all of our tracking is based on a one hundred dollar unit and we account for all results daily.    

We work daily to uncover value as the Playoffs evolve so it is not uncommon for us to have Series/Cup positions released during the second or even third round of the playoffs.  We almost always cover Futures wages to insure/enhance the bottom line as we regard Future positions as a tool to insure profitability. 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 210 Cormier vs. Johnson: 'New York state of GRIND' - 4/8/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 210. 

We wish to thank the fine professionals at VSiN and the Southpoint Hotel and Casino for allowing us to share our views on Matt Youmans ‘The Book Report’ yesterday.   We recognize both Southpoint and VSiN as the Gold Standard with regard to ethic and integrity in Sports Gaming and we're flattered to be able to contribute our UFC and NHL views on their platform.  VSiN has taken a leadership position in the legitimization of sports gaming and on a daily basis offer superior gaming Intelligence and insight.  We released three positions yesterday with Matt and have included the link to that discussion of UFC 210 below.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

We believe there is value in a couple of putrid pups on the Fightpass card and will release each  (half unit).

Holbrook +230            Green +190

Link (we begin at the 33:00 mark): 

https://www.vsin.com/videos/the-book-report-4-7-17/

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

We'll be up with full write ups by 3PM EST. These are the fighters we released on VSiN friday 4-7-17. 

 

Tuesday 4-4-17

Rosa +175

line is beginning to compress. We'll take the value....full write ups Saturday and all releases will be discussed Friday on VSiN (see below)

Saturday 3-25-16

Surprised at this opening number.  We've already missed some value but will jump now as this line is sure to plummet down away from this dynamic dog digit!

Oliviera +265

Anthiony Johnson will be harder to intimidate this time around.  He is a value at this price.

Johnson -110

full write ups Saturday the 8th

Also look for us on Brent Musburger's VSiN with Matt Youmans on his 'The Book Report' Friday April 7th! at 11AM PST

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


VSiN: The Future of Sports Gaming Intelligence - 3/29/2017

Good Day gaming Enthusiasts. Today we wish to highlight the terrific leadership role that the recently launched Vegas Stats and Information Network (VSiN) has undertaken for the benefit of all those wishing to complement their gaming acumen.  Brent Musburger and his “Guys in the Desert” are streaming live for five hours daily (noon to 5PM PST).  We listen to the broadcast each afternoon and must say that the format, the content presented and the professional delivery are all outstanding.  Musburger, Gil Alexander, Matt Youmans, Ron Flatter (and many more) all contribute to hand deliver inside gaming intelligence to listeners on a daily basis.  Guest appearances by many industry insiders enable listeners to complement their gaming knowledge with insight from these men as well the professional Sportsbook professionals of the Southpoint Hotel namely Vinnie Magliulo, Jimmy Vaccaro and Chris Andrews all of whom are highly reputable and decorated industry leaders.   

VSiN is available daily via live stream through their webpage as well they are carried by Sirius XM Radio (Sirius channel 215 and XM channel 204).  The content and information delivered are sure to enhance gaming knowledge for gaming professionals as well aspiring gamers.

One exciting aspect to the VSiN platform is their willingness to cover Mixed Martial Arts namely the UFC. 

On Friday April 7th we’ll make our initial appearance on VSiN with Matt Youmans’ “The Book Report” to discuss UFC 210.  Surely we’ll be prepared to deliver an enthusiastic breakdown on a handful of fights we believe will offer UFC bettors gaming value.  As our readers know we’ll jump any fighter we handicap as providing gaming value whether deep dog or compressed favorite. 

We look forward to this opportunity to contribute to the professionals at VSIN and will work diligently to uphold our standard of professionalism, transparency and profitability as we gain access to one of the most important mediums contributing to the legitimacy of Sports Gaming… and the leader out of the gates is VSiN.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 107 Manuwa vs. Anderson: English Beat.. down - 3/17/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC London.  The card Saturday from will be aired at 1:30PM EST which is 5:30PM local time in England.  Favorites have been marching proud in 2017 realizing a 54-20 mark (based on our tracking), so we’ll tread a bit lightly but continue to do what we do and that is try to uncover value on fighters we feel are poised to perform at peak then explain our reasoning.  Here is today's free release and we invitee you to take a peek at our UFC FN 107 releases available for 27.99. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Manuwa -135 vs. Anderson +125

Jimi Manuwa is an Englishman who fights using a BJJ based standup striking approach.  He sports dynamic power in each hand, can kick the base off of a building and has lost only to the division’s top talents (Gus and AJ).  Manuwa’s explosiveness and ferocity can be quelled if his opponent is able to persevere through the ferocity of the first round and get the musclebound fighter to have to exert effort, utilize energy and get ‘all swoll up’ as the fight moves past the first round.  Cory Anderson in our estimation is the exact style of fighter that can accomplish this task for he has a dynamic wrestling base and was recently scorched by loss to another wily vet two back in Shogun Rua.  Anderson is the taller, longer fighter who also happens to be nine years the younger man and a southpaw.  Provided Corey keeps his beak out of the way of those bombs Manuwa will be hurling it is our belief that Anderson has the take down skill and strength to force this fight to the floor and maul Manuwa on the mat.

Anderson +125

Nelson -315 vs. Jouban +295

Nelson is a switch stance fighter who uses what little stand up capability he has to basically encourage opponents to engage so he may then clasp, clinch, grope and drag to them to the mat for a mauling.  Nelson ground ability is top of class and no fighter other than Damien Maia is able to flop on the floor with this chap and not get squeezed out.  His opponent Alan Jouban is a striking based fighter who will be the larger man in the Octagon Saturday.  Besides size Jouban will own significant advantages in all areas of stand up, he’ll have advantages in speed and skill while at the same time sporting a vastly improved take down defense.  It’s his IQ, focus, game plan and the ability to execute that we believe gives Jouban a great opportunity to Ice the Icelander tonight for if Nelson is forced to play stand-up for fifteen minutes he’ll be outmatched.  Jouban will open this one up carefully and then over time maintain and control distance so he can pick-peck-kick away at the grappler thus forcing him to storm inside to engage which is when Nelson will be vulnerable to getting clipped.  As long as Jouban has prepared as we believe and keeps this fight standing and at distance he is in position to pull a decent upset…..

Jouban +295 (half)

Luque -125 vs. Edwards +115

We expect this to be a terrific tussle between two talented, improving young fighters.  Luque is a switch standing BJJ based fighter who has displayed real power and ferociousness in his improving stand up game.  It’s that recent success standing up that we feel may be the difference in this fight tonight for he’ll not be on the same level standing as Edwards.  We view Rocky as more athletic, faster, quicker and a more skilled fighter and provided he keeps his head and controls the distance in this fight we feel he will be able to out-skill a more brawling based power punching fighter.  The chink in Luque’s armor in past fights has been his poor take down defense and later in this fight if Luque does feel pressed and must take the fight to Edwards he could rush right into takedowns from Leon who we believe is poised to offer his best tonight in front of the ‘spirited’ locals.  Edwards improving skillset and well-rounded fight arsenal and experience (See Kamaru Usman fight Dec. 2015) put him in position to offer his top effort tonight.

Edwards +115 

Askham -140 vs. Scott +130

Part of our joy in watching fighting is to watch nationals compete.  In my case watching Boxing growing up allowed me to appreciate good fights between top fighters from the same Country.  Mexico, Puerto Rico, Ireland and England all sported top fighters that when they would face off would create great prideful fighting.  That’s exactly what we expect here.  Two proud English warriors will try to walk each other down in what we feel will end up being a relatively traditional English stand up war.  If the war takes place in space then Askham may well have the advantage as he wants to use his size to strike from distance while Scott would prefer to work from pocket in thus crowding and clasping Askham and making this a grueling groping clasping slow dance against the fence.  Should the fight go to the mat we do feel Scott may have advantage in wrestling.  In a fight between guys this evenly matched we’ll side with the guy we feel has more ways to win.

Scott +130 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: UFC Fav's flow - 3/13/2017

Good Monday gaming Enthusiasts!  We’ve been getting hammered in the UFC with the flow of Favorites that have dominated the first quarter of Mixed Martial Arts fighting in 2017.  So far this year we track Favorites as realizing a 54-20 record…a dominant 73%!   Now all realize that we’re not in the excuse game we’re in the results game and our results for the first quarter are in fact poor: 

UFC 2017:  11-19; 36.67 win %; -3.67 units; ROI -15%

The good news is that for the last few events we’ve been pursuing profitable pups in extremely conservative fashion for we always have our finger on the numbers and are aware that Fav’s are on fire.  The good news is that because of our conservative approach we find ourselves down a meager -3.67 units…..a pittance. 

We have no doubt about a couple of things.  First, Chalk will not continue to win at a 73% clip….believe that!  Second, because we have been wagering very conservatively while these Fav’s flow we have left ourselves in position to have one or two profitable events where deposits can convert this small debit into profitability.

Enthusiasts, it’s easy to get fooled by the fodder that the numerous fight fakes profess on Twitter in every UFC event and quite another to watch, learn and understand how a true professional navigates out of an off run.  Sometimes the Fav’s cover, sometimes our handicapping is substandard and sometimes one gets beat in oh so unusual circumstances. 

Rather than make excuses, the professional handicapper does what we are displaying for you.  We limit releases, we back off on the amount of the wager and we MINIMIZE loss as we roll through turbulent times.  Eventually the laws of ‘regression to the mean’ apply and when that happens (and it absolutely will) then we’ll surely witness underdog success (we search for value but usually in the form of dogs).  When this correction occurs we’ll be in position to overcome our slow start because we stuck to the basic principles that we have always preached.  In this case our Due Diligence is and will remain comprehensive, our practice of being extremely Selective becomes even more intense as we wait out this favorite run and most importantly we focus precisely on our Money Management in that we’re backing off on releases and wager amounts until we can navigate our way through this chalk run.  Money Management allows us to minimize profit erosion during the off runs while and allows us to maximize profitability once the dogs start barking…..and they will.

Just like any successful business, we’ll stay the course, trust our process and manage our money.  We’re here to teach and teaching interested Profitable Sports Gamers about the realities of this business and how to overcome an off run is of major importance as the longer one survives in this business the more one will encounter streaks of toil and runs of elation.  The key is to limit loss when on an off run and maximize profitability when one runs HOT!

On deck, UFC FN 107 from London England 3-18-17.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN106 Gastelum vs. Belfort: Fall of the Phenom? - 3/11/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to tonight’s UFC fights from Fortaleza, Brazil.  The UFC regards Brazil as sacred territory and with that in mind we believe there may be some brazen Brazilian barkers on this card.  Basic to our understanding of MMA is that top end wrestlers often can be kryptonite to world class BJJ practitioners.  Tonight we’ve tried to diagnose diversity in dogs that match up well with their opponent by sporting a favorable wrestling advantage or a leaning to local Brazilian luchador’s who we feel are poised to provide top effort.

Here's today's free release, our full card as always is availalble for $27.99 to those that wish to make deposits Monday morning.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Barboza -150 vs. Dariush +140

We released Dariush +155 earlier this week and have a few cents of market advantage on the fighter we believe has more ways to win this bout.  Barboza is a highly skilled technical striker who is lightning fast, athletic, powerful and precise with his punches.  Dariush his opponent is less sensational striking and like Dan Kelly (last week) looks to be more fund manager than fighter but make no mistake that Dariush is a complete killer in practice and performance.  He is versed standing, grappling and grinding and while not as fast as Barboza Dariush’s clinch and clasp is formidable so this fight comes down to distance as we handicap it.  Barboza must control the center of the Octagon and keep Dariush outside and at range for advantage while Dariush must navigate his attack through lethal kicks and striking in order to get Edson on is arse.  Edson has one way to control this fight and Dariush in our judgement has many ways to get his hand raised here. 

Dariush +155 

Kennedy -105 vs. Jason -105

Jason is a sizable step up in competition for Kennedy who’ll have size, length and age advantages over the Brazilian.  We find Jason as a capable fighter who sports vast experience but waning skills.  Kennedy’s solid wrestling base, his youth and cardio advantages make him a worthy consideration here against the local who must get this done early or by beguiling Kennedy for Jason’s strength and power once decent are less than that now.  Kennedy’s traveled for fights prior and does have the experience to tonight work his wrestling, wear the older fighter down and earn a victory. 

Kennedy -105

Lee -175 vs. Trinaldo +165

Kevin Lee steps into the Octagon tonight the superior wrestler by far.  He’s also younger, faster, longer and more athletic than the 38 year old Brazilian striker.  The key to this fight for Lee will be to smother the Brazilian banger, take him down and wear him out.  Trinaldo who knows exactly what Lee’s plan must be will do all he can to control distance, keep this fight standing and strike with Lee who’ll be uncomfortable and awkward in a standing striking situation.  Trinaldo opened -130 in a fight we call as close to pick-em.  This is a value grab as Massuranduba is now a mutt….

Trinaldo +165

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning UFC 209: Pugalistic Profitability - 3/6/2017

In 2017 Favorites in the UFC had amassed a 39-13 record into this past weekend’s UFC 209.  For those stubborn enough to remain dedicated to dogs, UFC 209 finally delivered as favorites only realized a 6-5 result.  When dogs bark we deposit. 

Final result UFC 209:  3-3 +1.45u

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

UFC 2017 Favorites now stand 45-18 (71.2%).  To say we remain committed to value laden fighters and capable underdogs would be an understatement so savvy readers will be rewarded if they keep an eye on our mangy mutt releases for chalk WILL NOT continue to run at a 72% clip in our humble estimation.

Delving in dogs and uncovering value is the goal of Profitable Sports Gaming and amassing profit the end result.  Underdog wagering allows a capable capper to realize a .500 result (sometimes even a losing tally will result in a few dollars banked) and still pull profit from the house.  We had nice releases on Kelly +195 and Teymur +340 while a win in the main event (Woodley +130) cashed even though that decision could have gone either way.  We also had a miserable loss with Sanders who got duped into feeling comfortable against an experienced Alcantara before tapping out. 

Monday’s are our day to account then forge forward as we care little today for the past weeks results for there is another card this weekend!  It’s time to work as this Saturday is UFC FN 106 and our dynamic Due Diligence s in full swing.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 209 Woodley vs. Thompson II: A trip to the Woodhouse? - 3/4/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 209 featuring the second scheduled five rounds between Tyron Woodley and Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson along with a slate of MMA fights that we believe will be entertaining and profitable. Live dogs have been hiding as we track Favorites as 39-13 so far in 2017 but we are not deterred.  Most readers are aware we target Value in our gaming employing a dedicated underdog philosophy so while the year has started in challenging fashion let’s understand that this is a marathon not a sprint.  There’s plenty more pugilistic profit potential in 2017 so we’ll remain patient, conduct comprehensive Due Diligence, employ Selectivity and track our profitability with precision to the penny.  Our whole UFC 209 Fight card is avaialble for 27.99 for those interested in investing in mangy mutts.  For others here is today's free release...

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Woodley +125 vs. Thompson -145

Interesting that Stevie is still the chalk in this fight.  I say still because surprisingly enough he opened a chalk in the first fight (-135) and closed -155.  For this rematch he is currently -145.  It’s our opinion that the wrong man is favored.  Thompson entered the first fight with the momentum and hype but in our view he left a battered man albeit a lucky man.  Thompson is a brilliant striker with a karate base and has one way to win this fight which is via stoppage by strikes or a decision based on precision distance control striking.  We view Woodley as the professional who has more ways to win this fight.  We also believe that while Thompson and camp feel like they hit the lotto with this rematch they’d better be careful what they wish for.  Breaking down the fight we get the feeling that Stevie is going to try to fight rounds 6-10 like he did the fifth round.  This may seem to make sense but in essence this approach forces the longer but less physical striker to engage and engagement with an explosive wrestling hybrid like Woodley may tend to take Thompson to his tuccus.  Thompson must not allow this fight to the floor as everyone and they Mama knows that Woodley can and will control him there and inflict great damage.  Woodley feels disrespected, we believe inwardly he is furious and we would not rule out a plan and performance like Marvin Hagler displayed in his 1985 ‘WAR’ with Tommie Hearns.  It’s our judgement that Woodley has more ways to win, he’s a more versed mixed martial artist and he knows he hurt Stevie in their first fight.  It’s Stevie who aims to come out and make a statement which we feel is perfectly suited for a trip to the Woodhouse.

Woodley +130 (released earlier this week)            

Fight won’t start Round 5 +100 (5Dimes) 

Vannata -375 vs. Teymur +340

Lando is a commando no doubt and while he has the more complete fight arsenal to deal Teymur a Muay Thai based striker fits, this line is a bit out of whack.  Lando is a twenty four year old fighter with a couple of sensational wins behind him and he does have upside.  But he’s been elevated quickly to the bright lights of tonight’s Co-Main event so let’s not forget that most young men learn young man lessons and tonight may well be a learning experience for young Lando.  Teymur will be more one dimensional in approach than Vannata so it’s important how Vannata executes in this fight for he cannot out-stand and out-strike Teymur.  It’s our belief that in order for Lando to get his hand raised tonight he must mop the floor with the Swede or at least take him down in order for Vannata to be able to exploit Teymur’s lack of ground game.  Teymur opened +170 so getting double that price is sure value….we’ll take a stab at the Striker.

Teymur +340 (half)

Evans -210 vs. Kelly +190

We know what Kelly is, he’s an extremely underrated Judo based grappler who is tough as John Wayne’s saddle.  Rashad Evans has faced far superior talent yet he is dropping to 185 for the first time in his career.  Rashad looks great at 185 and while he’ll be the more athletic, faster man in the cage it’s not his physique output we’re concerned about, it’s his head we question for we feel Rashad Evans is one fragile fighter….mentally.  Now understand we handicap the fight game and respect every fighter that steps in the cage anytime but this is our business and it is our belief that Rashad is fragile as grandmother’s porcelain tonight.  It’s our judgement that if Kelly can get this fight into the second round and make Rashad grind and dig deep which is Kelly’s way then this fight will turn to Kelly’s favor.  Kelly is no slouch and this one gets filled under: ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’.

Kelly +190 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming