This Friday night fight card from Boston has some outstanding match-ups not the least of which is the co-main event which is finally a completion of the Stephens/Rodriguez business left unfinished just a month ago.
As is customary here I’ll post my Insight the Octagon article from VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ below with update comments and releases following. Enjoy the Friday night fracas.
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00. I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year. Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).
--published 10-15-19 Point Spread Weekly—
Boston, MA is the scene for FRIDAY night’s UFC on ESPN+6 offering fans a slate loaded with entertaining match-ups featuring mixed martial artists in weight classes ranging from Women’s Strawweight (115lbs.) to Heavyweight (265lbs.).
Last week we ‘juiced’ the ‘Man as I split my two releases. Joanna decisioned the Hottie so my “fight does NOT go distance” +180 lost but the underdog Cub Swanson +140 did in fact award the singularly talented Kron Gracie his PhD. in MMA resulting in a net +.20-unit profit (both releases were half unit wagers).
2019 Results: 16-16 +3.11
Dominick Reyes -165 vs. Chris Weidman +145 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Main Event
Chris Weidman’s is thirty-five-years-old and has fought professionally for ten years, over the course of his eighteen fights he holds an impressive 14-4 record. That said we need to dig a little deeper into understanding where Weidman is physically as he enters this bout.
After his first two fights at catchweight (190lbs.) Weidman’s ten-year career has been spent in the Middleweight division where he’s held the title belt while in his prime but he’s been KO’d in four of his last five fights. Weidman’s wrestling/grappling based fighting style mandates intense physical training as well he’s accrued injuries over time…a great deal of them.
In an MMAJunkie.com. article dated June 9, 2019 they report the following on Weidman’s decision to move up in weight, “He cites numerous surgeries which prevent him from being able to cut to Middleweight as his reason for moving up weight classes”.
Weidman’s sole victory since December of 2015 was against Kelvin Gastelum in 2017. It’s that fight which holds the blueprint to Weidman success this Friday for against Gastelum Weidman was able to hold his own on the feet only long enough to clinch, grapple and grind his way to the matt for a mauling of the shorter, younger less grappling versed Gastelum.
Weidman’s sole avenue to victory Friday night will again lie in his ability to get this monster he’s fighting onto the floor where he’ll hold dynamic advantage. This is the single most important aspect to this main event.
Dom Reyes enters this fight a goliath of a Light Heavyweight fighter. He’ll be two inches taller than his opponent and though they each have similar reach; Reyes 29 will have a five-year youth advantage to go along with his obtuse size advantage and his pure power. When Reyes enters the octagon Friday Night, he’ll weight 230lbs to Weidman’s 210 or so.
Reyes pro career spans only five years and his undefeated record displays that he is an ascending talent albeit one that needs to address his lack wrestling and BJJ prowess. He’s a striker learning to compliment his game with other specialties while Weidman is well rounded but has little ability to take a straight fist to the face.
In this fight Weidman must wear Reyes down in order to be able to bum rush him into the fence then drag him to the floor where Weidman’s advantage will be dominant.
Reyes meanwhile knows Weidman’s plans and he’ll use his 85% effective take down defense to thwart Weidman’s advances then separate so he may unleash his profusely powerful striking on Weidman and test his mettle at the Light heavyweight division.
Reyes opened -185 for this fight and the slight move to Weidman is reasonable since he does have a vast experience edge, he’s also trained by Ray Longo one of the smartest savviest MMA trainers in the world so he’ll have Weidman prepared to use IQ and Wrestling in order to win this fight.
Reyes who’s never fought in a scheduled five round fight let alone main event prior to Friday must keep this fight standing and if he does it seems plausible that he’ll catch the older more brittle brawler as he tries to get inside to engage.
I’ll use this as the first leg of an Open parlay. The second leg will be filled at a later date. I use favorites that I believe offer value in this regard to both minimize loss in case of defeat and enhance value on an upcoming card should it win.
Yair Rodriguez -110 vs. Jeremy Stephens -110 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main event
This is a fight I wrote up for PSW last month but the fight was stopped in the first round due to ‘eye pokes’ to Stephens from Rodriguez. I could write volumes on this fight but I’ll keep this brief:
Rodriguez’s reactions immediately after the DQ (he wanted to be awarded the victory and displayed it quite poorly) showed me a complete lack of class and his comments following the fight about Stephens wanting out of the fight were off base, degrading and I can assure you they peeved Stephens off good. I also believe that Rodriguez was then and is now completely scared to his core of engaging with Stephens.
Last month’s fight in Mexico City actually was advantage Stephens, not only had he trained at the elevation there for a full five weeks prior but the fight being scheduled five rounds was a huge benefit to him because Stephens struggles with footwork. Early in fights he has trouble catching quicker more deft opponents (Edgar, Bermudez and others) until later rounds where he can eventually catch up to them after they tire and ice them. Rodriguez has one thing on Stephens it’s athleticism and speed/quickness.
This fight is now scheduled for only three rounds and while many believe this favors Stephens it in fact does not. Now while I do feel that Rodriguez is in fact scared to his core, I believe it’s that he’s hesitant to find himself in a firefight with this bruising brawler. That said, fear is and can be motivating is sport and although Rodriguez must travel to a cold northern climate from Mexico to fight in Boston his chances are better in this abbreviated rematch.
So, the question is a singular one: Can Stephens successfully close Rodriguez’s space, crowd him, bully him and batter him or will Rodriguez be able to use his footwork, speed, youth and athleticism to pick and peck away at this raging bull for three rounds?
My heart says Stephens by vicious KO because I want him to exact revenge but my head says Rodriguez via decision even though I believe he is soft, that said, the table is set for him to pitter patter Stephens for fifteen full minutes.
Too much emotion/uncertainty for a wager.
--updated 10-17-19 10pm PT—
Main Event: Reyes is in no cakewalk here but with that said he knows the singular avenue to success for Weidman is to get this fight to the floor for a flop. I believe the only flop Friday will be Weidman’s Light Heavyweight debut.
Stephens -105 has too much emotion going into this fight. Rodriguez -105 gains every edge by only having to manage this mauler for fifteen minutes as opposed to twenty-five. While I believe Rodriguez is frightened to his core, I also feel he’ll be able to manage the anxiety and keep Stephens at distance which will frustrate the raging bull and make him predictable as he marches his way in to engage. I’m no Rodriguez fan but tonight I’ll take him even money.
Earlier this week I released Jonathan Pearce -141 vs. Joe Lauzon +121 who I feel is a washed-out fighter getting a chance to say farewell to the Boston fans after an illustrious career. I believe he’s here as much to promote his gym and highlight some of his local fighters from said gym as he is to fight because either way, I believe he walks after this fight.
Also released on both VSiN network and Gabriel Morency’s Red Heat and Rage show in Fntsy Sports Network was The English bloke Darren Steward +115 who fights an up and coming wrestling talent that already understands how to cheat the system by wallowing into the weigh-ins a handful of pounds overweight in Deron Winn -125. Fighters that do this gain octagon advantage at the expense of too little pay as penalty for missing. They should have to forfeit the fight no matter the result if they miss weight by more than 2.5 lbs. without a short notice excuse or something reasonable and laid out up front. Winn’s a cheater but we made the position…
Lastly is my mangy mutt alert: Gillian Robertson +140 awards the mouthy Macie Barber -160 her PhD. In MMA.
Profitable Sports Gaming