UFC FN 107 Manuwa vs. Anderson: English Beat.. down - 3/17/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC London.  The card Saturday from will be aired at 1:30PM EST which is 5:30PM local time in England.  Favorites have been marching proud in 2017 realizing a 54-20 mark (based on our tracking), so we’ll tread a bit lightly but continue to do what we do and that is try to uncover value on fighters we feel are poised to perform at peak then explain our reasoning.  Here is today's free release and we invitee you to take a peek at our UFC FN 107 releases available for 27.99. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Manuwa -135 vs. Anderson +125

Jimi Manuwa is an Englishman who fights using a BJJ based standup striking approach.  He sports dynamic power in each hand, can kick the base off of a building and has lost only to the division’s top talents (Gus and AJ).  Manuwa’s explosiveness and ferocity can be quelled if his opponent is able to persevere through the ferocity of the first round and get the musclebound fighter to have to exert effort, utilize energy and get ‘all swoll up’ as the fight moves past the first round.  Cory Anderson in our estimation is the exact style of fighter that can accomplish this task for he has a dynamic wrestling base and was recently scorched by loss to another wily vet two back in Shogun Rua.  Anderson is the taller, longer fighter who also happens to be nine years the younger man and a southpaw.  Provided Corey keeps his beak out of the way of those bombs Manuwa will be hurling it is our belief that Anderson has the take down skill and strength to force this fight to the floor and maul Manuwa on the mat.

Anderson +125

Nelson -315 vs. Jouban +295

Nelson is a switch stance fighter who uses what little stand up capability he has to basically encourage opponents to engage so he may then clasp, clinch, grope and drag to them to the mat for a mauling.  Nelson ground ability is top of class and no fighter other than Damien Maia is able to flop on the floor with this chap and not get squeezed out.  His opponent Alan Jouban is a striking based fighter who will be the larger man in the Octagon Saturday.  Besides size Jouban will own significant advantages in all areas of stand up, he’ll have advantages in speed and skill while at the same time sporting a vastly improved take down defense.  It’s his IQ, focus, game plan and the ability to execute that we believe gives Jouban a great opportunity to Ice the Icelander tonight for if Nelson is forced to play stand-up for fifteen minutes he’ll be outmatched.  Jouban will open this one up carefully and then over time maintain and control distance so he can pick-peck-kick away at the grappler thus forcing him to storm inside to engage which is when Nelson will be vulnerable to getting clipped.  As long as Jouban has prepared as we believe and keeps this fight standing and at distance he is in position to pull a decent upset…..

Jouban +295 (half)

Luque -125 vs. Edwards +115

We expect this to be a terrific tussle between two talented, improving young fighters.  Luque is a switch standing BJJ based fighter who has displayed real power and ferociousness in his improving stand up game.  It’s that recent success standing up that we feel may be the difference in this fight tonight for he’ll not be on the same level standing as Edwards.  We view Rocky as more athletic, faster, quicker and a more skilled fighter and provided he keeps his head and controls the distance in this fight we feel he will be able to out-skill a more brawling based power punching fighter.  The chink in Luque’s armor in past fights has been his poor take down defense and later in this fight if Luque does feel pressed and must take the fight to Edwards he could rush right into takedowns from Leon who we believe is poised to offer his best tonight in front of the ‘spirited’ locals.  Edwards improving skillset and well-rounded fight arsenal and experience (See Kamaru Usman fight Dec. 2015) put him in position to offer his top effort tonight.

Edwards +115 

Askham -140 vs. Scott +130

Part of our joy in watching fighting is to watch nationals compete.  In my case watching Boxing growing up allowed me to appreciate good fights between top fighters from the same Country.  Mexico, Puerto Rico, Ireland and England all sported top fighters that when they would face off would create great prideful fighting.  That’s exactly what we expect here.  Two proud English warriors will try to walk each other down in what we feel will end up being a relatively traditional English stand up war.  If the war takes place in space then Askham may well have the advantage as he wants to use his size to strike from distance while Scott would prefer to work from pocket in thus crowding and clasping Askham and making this a grueling groping clasping slow dance against the fence.  Should the fight go to the mat we do feel Scott may have advantage in wrestling.  In a fight between guys this evenly matched we’ll side with the guy we feel has more ways to win.

Scott +130 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning: UFC Fav's flow - 3/13/2017

Good Monday gaming Enthusiasts!  We’ve been getting hammered in the UFC with the flow of Favorites that have dominated the first quarter of Mixed Martial Arts fighting in 2017.  So far this year we track Favorites as realizing a 54-20 record…a dominant 73%!   Now all realize that we’re not in the excuse game we’re in the results game and our results for the first quarter are in fact poor: 

UFC 2017:  11-19; 36.67 win %; -3.67 units; ROI -15%

The good news is that for the last few events we’ve been pursuing profitable pups in extremely conservative fashion for we always have our finger on the numbers and are aware that Fav’s are on fire.  The good news is that because of our conservative approach we find ourselves down a meager -3.67 units…..a pittance. 

We have no doubt about a couple of things.  First, Chalk will not continue to win at a 73% clip….believe that!  Second, because we have been wagering very conservatively while these Fav’s flow we have left ourselves in position to have one or two profitable events where deposits can convert this small debit into profitability.

Enthusiasts, it’s easy to get fooled by the fodder that the numerous fight fakes profess on Twitter in every UFC event and quite another to watch, learn and understand how a true professional navigates out of an off run.  Sometimes the Fav’s cover, sometimes our handicapping is substandard and sometimes one gets beat in oh so unusual circumstances. 

Rather than make excuses, the professional handicapper does what we are displaying for you.  We limit releases, we back off on the amount of the wager and we MINIMIZE loss as we roll through turbulent times.  Eventually the laws of ‘regression to the mean’ apply and when that happens (and it absolutely will) then we’ll surely witness underdog success (we search for value but usually in the form of dogs).  When this correction occurs we’ll be in position to overcome our slow start because we stuck to the basic principles that we have always preached.  In this case our Due Diligence is and will remain comprehensive, our practice of being extremely Selective becomes even more intense as we wait out this favorite run and most importantly we focus precisely on our Money Management in that we’re backing off on releases and wager amounts until we can navigate our way through this chalk run.  Money Management allows us to minimize profit erosion during the off runs while and allows us to maximize profitability once the dogs start barking…..and they will.

Just like any successful business, we’ll stay the course, trust our process and manage our money.  We’re here to teach and teaching interested Profitable Sports Gamers about the realities of this business and how to overcome an off run is of major importance as the longer one survives in this business the more one will encounter streaks of toil and runs of elation.  The key is to limit loss when on an off run and maximize profitability when one runs HOT!

On deck, UFC FN 107 from London England 3-18-17.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN106 Gastelum vs. Belfort: Fall of the Phenom? - 3/11/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to tonight’s UFC fights from Fortaleza, Brazil.  The UFC regards Brazil as sacred territory and with that in mind we believe there may be some brazen Brazilian barkers on this card.  Basic to our understanding of MMA is that top end wrestlers often can be kryptonite to world class BJJ practitioners.  Tonight we’ve tried to diagnose diversity in dogs that match up well with their opponent by sporting a favorable wrestling advantage or a leaning to local Brazilian luchador’s who we feel are poised to provide top effort.

Here's today's free release, our full card as always is availalble for $27.99 to those that wish to make deposits Monday morning.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Barboza -150 vs. Dariush +140

We released Dariush +155 earlier this week and have a few cents of market advantage on the fighter we believe has more ways to win this bout.  Barboza is a highly skilled technical striker who is lightning fast, athletic, powerful and precise with his punches.  Dariush his opponent is less sensational striking and like Dan Kelly (last week) looks to be more fund manager than fighter but make no mistake that Dariush is a complete killer in practice and performance.  He is versed standing, grappling and grinding and while not as fast as Barboza Dariush’s clinch and clasp is formidable so this fight comes down to distance as we handicap it.  Barboza must control the center of the Octagon and keep Dariush outside and at range for advantage while Dariush must navigate his attack through lethal kicks and striking in order to get Edson on is arse.  Edson has one way to control this fight and Dariush in our judgement has many ways to get his hand raised here. 

Dariush +155 

Kennedy -105 vs. Jason -105

Jason is a sizable step up in competition for Kennedy who’ll have size, length and age advantages over the Brazilian.  We find Jason as a capable fighter who sports vast experience but waning skills.  Kennedy’s solid wrestling base, his youth and cardio advantages make him a worthy consideration here against the local who must get this done early or by beguiling Kennedy for Jason’s strength and power once decent are less than that now.  Kennedy’s traveled for fights prior and does have the experience to tonight work his wrestling, wear the older fighter down and earn a victory. 

Kennedy -105

Lee -175 vs. Trinaldo +165

Kevin Lee steps into the Octagon tonight the superior wrestler by far.  He’s also younger, faster, longer and more athletic than the 38 year old Brazilian striker.  The key to this fight for Lee will be to smother the Brazilian banger, take him down and wear him out.  Trinaldo who knows exactly what Lee’s plan must be will do all he can to control distance, keep this fight standing and strike with Lee who’ll be uncomfortable and awkward in a standing striking situation.  Trinaldo opened -130 in a fight we call as close to pick-em.  This is a value grab as Massuranduba is now a mutt….

Trinaldo +165

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning UFC 209: Pugalistic Profitability - 3/6/2017

In 2017 Favorites in the UFC had amassed a 39-13 record into this past weekend’s UFC 209.  For those stubborn enough to remain dedicated to dogs, UFC 209 finally delivered as favorites only realized a 6-5 result.  When dogs bark we deposit. 

Final result UFC 209:  3-3 +1.45u

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

UFC 2017 Favorites now stand 45-18 (71.2%).  To say we remain committed to value laden fighters and capable underdogs would be an understatement so savvy readers will be rewarded if they keep an eye on our mangy mutt releases for chalk WILL NOT continue to run at a 72% clip in our humble estimation.

Delving in dogs and uncovering value is the goal of Profitable Sports Gaming and amassing profit the end result.  Underdog wagering allows a capable capper to realize a .500 result (sometimes even a losing tally will result in a few dollars banked) and still pull profit from the house.  We had nice releases on Kelly +195 and Teymur +340 while a win in the main event (Woodley +130) cashed even though that decision could have gone either way.  We also had a miserable loss with Sanders who got duped into feeling comfortable against an experienced Alcantara before tapping out. 

Monday’s are our day to account then forge forward as we care little today for the past weeks results for there is another card this weekend!  It’s time to work as this Saturday is UFC FN 106 and our dynamic Due Diligence s in full swing.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 209 Woodley vs. Thompson II: A trip to the Woodhouse? - 3/4/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 209 featuring the second scheduled five rounds between Tyron Woodley and Stevie ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson along with a slate of MMA fights that we believe will be entertaining and profitable. Live dogs have been hiding as we track Favorites as 39-13 so far in 2017 but we are not deterred.  Most readers are aware we target Value in our gaming employing a dedicated underdog philosophy so while the year has started in challenging fashion let’s understand that this is a marathon not a sprint.  There’s plenty more pugilistic profit potential in 2017 so we’ll remain patient, conduct comprehensive Due Diligence, employ Selectivity and track our profitability with precision to the penny.  Our whole UFC 209 Fight card is avaialble for 27.99 for those interested in investing in mangy mutts.  For others here is today's free release...

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com all releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com position is accounted for weekly each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab available to all at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display our bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing readers with 110% disclosure).

Woodley +125 vs. Thompson -145

Interesting that Stevie is still the chalk in this fight.  I say still because surprisingly enough he opened a chalk in the first fight (-135) and closed -155.  For this rematch he is currently -145.  It’s our opinion that the wrong man is favored.  Thompson entered the first fight with the momentum and hype but in our view he left a battered man albeit a lucky man.  Thompson is a brilliant striker with a karate base and has one way to win this fight which is via stoppage by strikes or a decision based on precision distance control striking.  We view Woodley as the professional who has more ways to win this fight.  We also believe that while Thompson and camp feel like they hit the lotto with this rematch they’d better be careful what they wish for.  Breaking down the fight we get the feeling that Stevie is going to try to fight rounds 6-10 like he did the fifth round.  This may seem to make sense but in essence this approach forces the longer but less physical striker to engage and engagement with an explosive wrestling hybrid like Woodley may tend to take Thompson to his tuccus.  Thompson must not allow this fight to the floor as everyone and they Mama knows that Woodley can and will control him there and inflict great damage.  Woodley feels disrespected, we believe inwardly he is furious and we would not rule out a plan and performance like Marvin Hagler displayed in his 1985 ‘WAR’ with Tommie Hearns.  It’s our judgement that Woodley has more ways to win, he’s a more versed mixed martial artist and he knows he hurt Stevie in their first fight.  It’s Stevie who aims to come out and make a statement which we feel is perfectly suited for a trip to the Woodhouse.

Woodley +130 (released earlier this week)            

Fight won’t start Round 5 +100 (5Dimes) 

Vannata -375 vs. Teymur +340

Lando is a commando no doubt and while he has the more complete fight arsenal to deal Teymur a Muay Thai based striker fits, this line is a bit out of whack.  Lando is a twenty four year old fighter with a couple of sensational wins behind him and he does have upside.  But he’s been elevated quickly to the bright lights of tonight’s Co-Main event so let’s not forget that most young men learn young man lessons and tonight may well be a learning experience for young Lando.  Teymur will be more one dimensional in approach than Vannata so it’s important how Vannata executes in this fight for he cannot out-stand and out-strike Teymur.  It’s our belief that in order for Lando to get his hand raised tonight he must mop the floor with the Swede or at least take him down in order for Vannata to be able to exploit Teymur’s lack of ground game.  Teymur opened +170 so getting double that price is sure value….we’ll take a stab at the Striker.

Teymur +340 (half)

Evans -210 vs. Kelly +190

We know what Kelly is, he’s an extremely underrated Judo based grappler who is tough as John Wayne’s saddle.  Rashad Evans has faced far superior talent yet he is dropping to 185 for the first time in his career.  Rashad looks great at 185 and while he’ll be the more athletic, faster man in the cage it’s not his physique output we’re concerned about, it’s his head we question for we feel Rashad Evans is one fragile fighter….mentally.  Now understand we handicap the fight game and respect every fighter that steps in the cage anytime but this is our business and it is our belief that Rashad is fragile as grandmother’s porcelain tonight.  It’s our judgement that if Kelly can get this fight into the second round and make Rashad grind and dig deep which is Kelly’s way then this fight will turn to Kelly’s favor.  Kelly is no slouch and this one gets filled under: ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’.

Kelly +190 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Money Morning UFC 2017: Hidden Hounds - 2/20/2017

Monday’s each week are the days we update our books and account for the period’s profit.  UFC results this past week were 2-3 -32.00; -.32 of a unit so there will be no deposit this week (which may not come through in our writing but perturbs we at GambLou.com World HQ to no end).  We spend mucho hours trying to pinpoint profitable pups from these pugilistic performances so while we’re frustrated with the results a closer look may uncover reasons our start to 2017 has been off. 

7-13 -3.42 units;  -19.32 ROI is not how we planned the start of the year but it is just the beginning of a long season that will feature some 30 plus more fight cards so patience and process will overtake panic and gripping without question.  Off periods in Gaming are inevitable, it’s how we manage them and minimize their effect both financially and emotionally that displays true professionalism.

Remember fight Enthusiasts this is a marathon and not a sprint.  We are Profitable Sports Gaming not ‘bury your man every event’ sports gaming just to remind!!

2017 UFC results show Favorites (as we track results) stand 39-13 in the UFC so while our slow start is unacceptable it is somewhat understandable.  Will chalk continue to win at that 75% clip?  If so we may have a tough year but we believe in our method, our process and our long term results so we’ll continue undergo dynamic Due Diligence, we’ll practice supreme Selectivity and as always on Mondays we’ll perform precision Money Management in public then update our results on the webpage.  We are not deterred rather more focused than ever because when it comes to profitability we are unrelenting and more importantly….

It’s Business!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 105 Lewis vs. Browne: Northern Lights Out - 2/19/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a Sunday fight card that offers the potential to profit off of putrid pups.  Last week’s 8-2 chalk run in the UFC brings favorites to 32-11-2 according to our tracking in 2017.  We believe in our process/result based off of the decades of time and experience we have accrued in Profitable Sports Gaming so we’ll continue to undertake dynamic Due Diligence, remain supremely Selective and manage the money in precision fashion. 

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  We display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

Today's free release is below:  full write up and all releases available for $27.99. Good luck

Lewis -110 vs. Browne +100

Here’s another tilt we tossed around with Gabriel this past week.  We view Lewis as a bottom line brawler with more power and dynamic ground and pound than skill, precision and athleticism.  Browne’s game is well more balance for he is quite comfortable on the canvas and we believe he will use his athleticism, length and movement to control space in the stand-up thus making Lewis bull rush in order to engage.  This is where Browne wants the fight in order to use the space to blister the brawler.  Eventually Browne will anticipate Lewis’ bull rushes then potential takedowns may occur for while Lewis is lethal on top he has little by way of take down defense and on top Browne is quite effective in his own right.  In our judgement Lewis must make his way into the pocket and land a Sunday shot as his only way to win.  Browne is a substantial step up in class for Lewis and provided Browne can keep his beard from being busted this is Browne’s fight to earn by managing distance and utilizing his size, reach and athleticism.

Browne +100  

Lombard -110 vs. Hendricks +100

A perceived do or die for Johny Hendricks who we believe still has a future as a pertinent fighter in the UFC even though the division is now middleweight.  Hendricks’ stock is down but this appears to be a good opportunity as his opponent is 39 years old and struggles with maintaining a consistent level of activity over the course of a three round MMA fight.  Hendricks, a wrestling based mauler will want to clinch and drag this to the floor for advantage for his wrestling is more polished than his opponents Judo is.  Lombard, a Cuban fighting out of Boca Raton, Florida also travels to northern Canada in February to experience a real cold opponent besides the climate.  We believe at 185 Hendricks will be able to return to a distance closing, frenetic paced, wrestling machine and maul Lombard, sap him of his strength and apply constant pressure to insure this fight taxes the musclebound Cuban then enters the second round where we feel Hendricks will begin to take control of this fight.  Hendricks is metaphor for the old saying that, ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all’ for in order for him to get his hand raised he must display the kind of grit and determination that is needed to overcome Hector Lombard and his devastating yet somewhat premeditated power.   We feel the lack worry about weight will allow Johny Hendricks to look like a rejuvenated fighter tonight in pace, ferocity and result. 

Hendricks +105 (released earlier this week, currently +100)

Esparza -265 vs. Markos +245

We’re not believers that Esparza has developed her striking game enough to really compete with the top lady Straw weights.  Sure she’s a top wrestler but even in the 115 division she is undersized and usually gives away tremendous reach and size.  Markos enters the local who will be the larger lady owning said reach and size advantage.  At the opening number of +165 we thought Markos offered decent dog value and would be in a position to offer her best tonight so at current pricing we feel Markos is a buy as we see Markos as holding her own on the floor but having decent advantage standing.

Markos +245 (half)

Meerschaert -290 vs. Janes +260

We released this after our weekly chat with Gabriel Morency (@sportsrage) on his MMAMeltdown program which airs on the FightNetwork (@fightnetwork) that we’re going with Janes +270 as a value position. Meershaert a southpaw will own advantage in the stand up and despite Janes size and length that’s where he’ll want to keep it.  Meerschaert is very capable on the floor but he’s in there against a guy in Janes that will want this on the floor, make it a maul on the mat and try to control this fight.  Meerschaert opened -185 a fair price but current pricing is provides value with Janes who we hope is one dangerous dog. 

Janes +270 (half released earlier this week) 

Tucker -160 vs. Sicilia +150

Tucker, the local kid from the regional scene is getting plenty of love and we believe that’s based mostly on Sicilia’s recent performances for we'll need to see this local kid fight before we believe in the greatness of Galvin’s game.  Sam will be the larger man tonight; he’s more experienced and arrives a well-rounded fighter with a pedigreed wrestling base.  Sicilia’s advantages are magnified if/when they grip and grope on the ground so he’ll need to press the action in order to get in tight, clasp the kid and make this a floor fight.  We have a difficult time believing  a newcomer who  is basically a striking based regional fighter with little class competition waltzing into the cage and taking out a .500 UFC professional mixed martial artist who knows his career is on the line. 

Sicilia +150 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


UFC 208 de Randome vs. Holm: A Gi grows in Brooklyn - 2/11/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 208.  We’ve been conservative with UFC releases thus far in 2017 because the cards have offered little by way of dynamic dog opportunity.  We’re tracking chalk as 24-9-2 through three UFC cards this year which verifies our cautious approach to the beginning of the fiscal year (we stand 5-5 +1.25u +8.70 ROI thus far in 2017 which we'll take understanding that we delve in dogs)  That said we view UFC 208 as an opportunity for we believe there are some value laden mangy mutts on this card and we’re willing to invest a few half unit positions (besides releases already published through the week) on fighters we believe are prepared to offer their best at a premium price.    

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every release is accounted for each Monday AM as well we display on line up to date results in all the sporting events we work on our ‘Profitability’ tab at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability and Return on Investment while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

de Randome -120 vs. Holm +110

de Randome is a tall, long Muay Thai, kickboxing specialist that will try to control her opponent with direct forward moving pressure utilizing her length to forge her way into the clinch in order to control space, work the body with her knees and utilize elbows for she is an extremely offensive minded championship Muay Thai fighter.  We feel this approach is better suited for Holm to handle (as opposed to Holm trying to be the aggressor) as witnessed by her last performance against a fighter we feel is one of the two top woman’s Bantamweights in Chevchenko. In this fight Holm will be the faster, quicker woman as well we believe she’ll be in position to use de Randome’s forward approach to her benefit, utilize her counterpunching and eventually even take de Randome to the floor where we feel Holm can control her.  Its Holm’s body of work, her level of competition and her more well-rounded skillset that have us feeling that the wrong woman is favored here.

Holm +110

Brunson -120 vs. Silva -110

Anderson Silva is a polished professional fighter whose love of fighting is keeping him in the game and at 41 years of age he remains skilled and dangerous despite clearly showing signs of slowing and displaying less ability to defend in a manner that only the one time GOAT could display.  He competes today with a fighter in Brunson who is coming off of a KO loss in his last which was the poorest display of Octagon IQ as can be found in recent memory.  Silva saw that last outing of Brunson’s and is hoping Derek runs in to him face first for this is an approach that gives Anderson his best chance to beat a faster, younger more powerful foe.  Brunson and camp must prepare to return to Brunson’s roots of wrestling and immediately force this fight to the floor for a flailing as in our judgement this is the most effective approach for Brunson. We released Brunson -145 yesterday when we saw that Silva did not jump on the scales until 90 minutes after the weigh-ins began.  We view that 90 minutes as critical rehydration time as Brunson was one of the first to weigh-in and then begin to recover for this fight.  If Brunson uses his intelligence as a weapon tonight we feel he’ll get his hand raised.

Brunson -120

Teixeira -225 vs. Connonier +205

Teixeira is a top five talent in the rapidly thinning light heavyweight division in the UFC.  He’s grizzled, experienced, extremely well rounded and will own tremendous advantage if this fight falls to the floor.  Teixeira’s weakness if he has one it that he’s slowing as he approaches his 38th birthday, he’s been in many UFC wars and in his last fight was brutally KO’d by Anthony Johnson who’s in many ways a very similar version (a bit more complete) as Cannonier.  Connonier will be the younger, faster, more furious fighter who will approach Teixeira with a need to keep this fight standing for everyone in the building will know that Teixeira will control Cannonier should they make their way to the mat.  We handicap this fight as speed and power against guile and grit.  We released Cannonier as a canine earlier this week and the price today is well better than the one we released (+125) so if we liked him at that price we surely like him at current pricing.

Cannonier +205  

Reis -610 vs. Sasaki +510

We’ll bite on the younger, taller, longer fighter here.  Both of these cats are lefties which should be enough to make this an odd affair.  Both guys are grapplers and while we do recognize Sasaki’s physical advantages we will be quick to point out that the explosiveness, power and aggressiveness make Reis a worthy chalk but the current pricing offers too much value for these two.  Sure Reis is a reasonable -350 (his opening number) but at double that the Japanese fighter is getting overlooked.  We’ll make Reis prove to us that he’s focused on this fight and not looking beyond as he tries to retain his shot at the title,

Sasaki +510 (half)

Machachev -290 vs. Lentz +260

Here’s a fight that we felt was priced correctly at opening with the Russian fighter a -130 favorite.  Looks like the parlay playing punks have pushed Machachev to -290 and while we do recognize Machachev’s youth, size and fight arsenal it is our opinion that this is a big test for Machachev and one that is going to be well more competitive than current pricing suggests.  Lentz returns to 155 from 145 which we feel will contribute to his strength, stamina and ability to make this a dirty, ugly grinding grope.  Value play

Lentz +260 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN Bermudez vs. Korean Zombie: unSung Jung? - 2/4/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN Houston.  

In our zeal to improve GambLou.com UFC profitability from last year, the pledge me made as we developed our 2017 UFC business plan was to focus on the ‘Selectivity’ of our releases.  We review past results each year end on each sport we work in order to create a plan for profitability for the following year/season.  Our blueprint for self-improvement this year has us committing ourselves to conducting dynamic Due Diligence as the profit derived from this will make the process of Money Management that much more enjoyable.  Selectivity will be stressed in the UFC in 2017 with the goal being to enhance win percentage, gross profit and ROI. 

Today’s UFC blog will be a free release because we believe the card is shy on gaming value and we practice what we preach when we say “Sometimes the best wager is the one not made”.  Believe me we’ll not be shy to publish early releases or aggressively ‘fire away’ when an opportunity presents itself for our ‘high’ is in making deposits not wagers. It’s business.

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Blaydes -315 vs. Milstead +285

Curtis Blaydes is a big, fit, tough wrestling based bad ass.  Sure he got roughed up by Ngannou a couple fights back but in time when Blaydes can further develop his striking we just may be able to see a rematch of that tilt for Blaydes has certain potential.  Blaydes opponent Adam Milstead is an athletic talented heavyweight albeit a bit undersized.  He’ll want to keep this fight standing and at distance in order to use his speed, striking and movement to keep Blaydes from clasping him and mauling Milstead on the mat.  We do believe that most fights at one time or another do find the floor and it will be no different here.  Milstead’s effectiveness depends on his conditioning, toughness and his ability to weather the storm and try to take some of the steam out of the bigger bloke in Blaydes which may allow him to gain advantage late.  We see this fight as eventually turning into an ugly grinder with Blaydes on top but it will be no easy task for Curtis....

Blaydes/Milstead starts Rd. 3 +145

Vick -110 vs. Trujillo -110

This fight is on Vick’s turf (The Texecutioner) and he sports substantial numeric advantages as he’ll be the younger, taller, longer man in the Octagon tonight.  Vick enters off a loss to Dariush which we believe enhances the trajectory of the fighter for off a loss a fighter with a champion’s heart usually returns with focus, drive and dedication.  We’ll believe Vick who is a talented, technical striker, responds in Championship form and produces the best effort of his career. Vick was one of the first to weigh-in yesterday then begin to rehydrate and we surely see this as a sign that he is focused and prepared.  His opponent Abel Trujillo deserves to be respected for Trujillo is an explosive powerful striker and Vick has been known to keep that chin in the air.  Trujillo absolutely has the power to put Vick out and he’ll surely strive to earn his way inside the pocket to both nullify Vick’s advantage and to throw hooks and try to vex Vick.  Trujillo does have a history of slowing later in fights as his physique is such that in time those massive muscles can get all ‘swole up’ and sap the snap from his shots.  Also Trujillo is a known vegan and while we respect his conscientious approach to life it is our opinion that a diet such as this coupled with the fact that Trujillo is almost thirty four may contribute to a lack of energy, snap and crispness later in fights.  Vick will need to keep distance early on in this one in order to gain advantage later in the fight by keeping Trujillo at the end of that length, moving and making Trujillo pay to get inside.

Vick -110

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Money Morning: The Shine Report - 1/30/2017

Good day gaming Enthusiasts.  Today’s report is accompanied by an announcement of a major webpage modification we’ve conducted for the benefit of transparency.  Over the course of the last 6 months of assessing and improving our webpage we came into in depth conversation with @ProfessorShine on Twitter who through our dialogue was helpful in allowing us to grasp and incorporate format adjustments to the site that we believe will prove helpful.

Moving forward anyone who accesses the Gamblou.com webpage will now be able to click on the ‘Profitability’ tab and gain access to all of our past time stamped results.  These results are segmented by Sport then after clicking on any year for each particular Sport one will now be able to review overall record, win percentage, monetary results and finally ROI for the event.  We’ll publish event results, yearly results and lifetime results for the selected sporting events we work in this manner moving forward to allow potential clients and critics to access our profitability.

Improvement, Transparency and eventual World Dominance….Gamblou.com

UFC

We profited on the UFC Fox card by realizing a 2-2 +.75u result Saturday night.

2017 UFC:  4-4; 50% WP; +1.2u; ROI 16.55%

We address each and every genuine request we receive via e mail or twitter and clearly we are open minded to making adjustments to our procedures that will allow clients and potential clients increased access in order to make educated decisions or to simply review our positions and make note. 

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC Denver Shevchenko vs.Pena: Altitude Adjustment - 1/28/2017

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to our take on tonight’s UFC tablet.  For new readers our path to profitability can be summarized by understanding the three fulcrums to success we employ in deriving deposits from UFC duels.  We utilize Dynamic Due Diligence to detect and uncover value; we employ supreme Selectivity in refining our releases to a select few for our thrill is in winning as opposed to wagering….big difference there. Finally, we practice precise Money Management to track our bottom line each Monday after our work week for no profitable business may sustain itself without adherening to business principles.  After all…it’s business!

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM.  Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

-Let’s Fight-

Shevchenko -150 vs. Pena +140

Great fight featuring two dynamic fighters who are ascending the ladies bantamweight division quickly.  Shevchenko, a soutpaw is a world class Taekwondo, Muay Thai and kickboxing talent who is skilled, precise and agile in the application of her strike attack.  She has decent power but does most of her damage in accumulation.  She is experienced, cagey, premeditated, focused and refined and has been in Denver training for this fight for over three weeks.  Juliana Pena, the Venezuelan vixen on the other hand is going to be the larger woman in the Octagon and she’ll sell her soul to the devil in order to get this fight to the floor for a fracas.  Pena will pressure to get inside to grasp Valentina then drag her down to the mat like a lion on the neck of a zebra.  She’ll be relentless to maul her opponent on the mat for on the feet she is a bit wide and throws everything with finality as its purpose which will play directly into the hands of Shevchenko so that approach is off.  Shevchenko must utilize her outstanding footwork to remain in enough space to loop laser lefts to the lips of Juliana.  We attribute the “Styles make fights” adage to Angelo Dundee and never has this quote been so applicable to a fight.  We released this fight Wednesday Shevchenko -120 as she opened -170 so we own market advantage, now we get to watch these talented fighters compete.

Shevchenko -150

(GambLou clients receive all early positions and often the market advantage)

 

Assuncao -140 vs. Sterling +130

We discussed this fight in detail this week with Gabriel Morency on his show MMAMeltdown which airs on the FightNetwork.  Assuncao, a southpaw is a complete well-rounded mixed martial artist.  He’s vastly experienced, has power on the feet and is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu.  At 34 years of age however we feel that Assuncao’s best days may be behind him.  His last fight came after an almost two year absence from the game to heal various injuries.  While that fight was against an absolute beast in TJ Dillashaw, we felt Rafael labored and looked sluggish against TJ.  While we may expect a more fluid effort from him tonight the fact remains that he is in the Octagon with a man in Sterling that will be the taller, younger, longer and faster more skilled fighter.  He enters this fight off a loss in his last outing which equates to a more refined effort for any fighter let alone a fighter with Sterling’s skillset, competitiveness and team.  Sterling made the trip to Denver three weeks early (it takes a full 3 weeks to acclimate one’s body to the change of altitude) to acclimate which tells us that he is prepared to make amends for the Carraway loss and offer us his absolute best effort tonight.  One may equate this to a Bull Fight with Assuncao trying to get inside to get his hands on Sterling and Sterling floating like a butterfly and trying to sting like a bee.  It will take a full three rounds of skill, precision and movement from Sterling to win tonight for while he sports advantage in most aspects of this fight he does lack punching power.  If Aljamain is to get his hand raised tonight he’ll have to beat the fire hydrant with movement, skill, speed and an accumulation of strikes.  

Sterling +130

Jingliang -110 vs. Nash -110

This fight opened up Jingliang -170 and the love for his opponent has dropped that price like a hammer in a lake.  He wages battle with UFC newcomer Bobby Nash.  Nash has a wresting base, is athletic and does look the part but has a meager 2.5 years as a professional* compared to a guy in Jingliang who is coming up on a decade in the cage.  Jingliang’s size, the pressure he’ll impose and the fact that he is the more complete fighter make him attractive at the current pricing.

Jingliang -110 

Cerrone -150 vs. Masvidal +140

The way to beat Cowboy Cerrone is to box him, bully him and force the fight into his face.  Jorge Masvidal is a guy that says he is going to execute this exact plan yet his body of work displays the opposite.  Masvidal a guy that is surely ultra-talented and at the same time he fights (most) often without any sense of urgency.  Masvidal is one difficult cat to figure for as we handicap this fight it’s all about what action Masvidal takes because we know what Cerrone will want to do.  Cerrone will want to control distance, use his vast striking attack to control the fight and move.  Masvidal, in our opinion must do what Marvin Haggler did to Tommy Hearns in 1985 and that is aggressively gain control of the pocket, press and pitch power punches in order to make Cerrone move backwards, feel uncomfortable and have to fight Jorge’s fight.  Jorge must smother the Cowboy and make this a street fight as this form of fight will provide Jorge physical control of the fight and more importantly emotional control over Cerrone who in his past has had a difficult time managing this form of pressure.   This will all come down to whether Jorge comes to fight or frolic.  Monitoring this one as I am torn as to whether I can trust Jorge...

Ngannou -360 vs. Arlovski +320

Ngannou is a fighter who is being carefully placed as he works his way toward the top of an ultra-thin talent pool in the Heavyweight division.  We actually respect the path his camp is taking with him and understand why they think Arlovski is the perfect match for him tonight as they are aware that Arlovski’s switch goes off to a sneeze.  If Ngannou touches the bad ass from Belarus he’ll likely put him out.  That said, this fight is a decent step up for Ngannou and we have not seen any of the tomato’s he’s fought (Blaydes is no can but is a wrestler who wasn’t there to exchange) be able to throw AND LAND a heavyweight punch to Ngannou’s nose.  We’ve seen through history many chiseled fighters who look menacing and have been fed diets of diva’s only to finally achieve a level of opponent where they are going to be tested then fail miserably because they can’t take a belt to the beard.  Ngannou is raw and he’s in against a guy that will own tremendous experience over him inside the Octagon so excuse us if we make Ngannou show us something before we kneel down and proclaim him the next great Heavyweight.

Free Release:  Arlovski ITD +440 (.25u)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming