2019 College World Series: Let's play Three! - 6/14/2019

*please note that I'll update pricing up until puck drop.

--6-19-19 8am PT--

Vanderbilt -180 vs. Mississippi State +150

Here’s another secret to the College World Series. Ace Pitchers often come here to get battered. Now Ethan Small for MSU pitched well in the Bulldog opener but he’s a rare exception and that outing does nothing to ensure any success moving forward.

The Bulldogs will try to gain revenge for their 1-0 loss earlier this year to Vandy when they march senior P Plumlee to the hill to tackle the Tournaments deepest most talented team. Vandy will use freshman sensation Rocker who pitched a dominant no hit ballgame striking out 19 Duke batters in his last outing. You know where I’m going here eh?

MSU is going to swing early often and with vigor today in great game conditions and I believe they’ll tee off on the freshman sensation who may find out that the Bulldogs are a different hitting team than Duke.

MSU +150

--6-19-19 6:50am PT--

Rain and turbulent weather are normal for June in Omaha and many of the southern and southeastern schools that visit here have a relatively easy time adjusting to the conditions of wind, rain, humidity and lightning.

Said conditions will force Louisville and Auburn to complete their ballgame from yesterday this morning at 9am PT (most wagers on that contest graded no wager) then we’ll get Vanderbilt and MSU in a Bracket II winners contest followed later this evening with Wednesday’s regularly scheduled game where Texas Tech faces Florida State.

So for today, the Vandy vs. MSU contest is scheduled about 11am PT and the winner there becomes the favorite to go on to win this Tournament so it’s a critical outcome for this Tournament. MSU is currently +150 which is tempting. Check back later for any releases

--6-18-19 10:10am PT--

The Michigan Wolverines claimed the catbird seat in Bracket I of the College World Series yesterday on the arm of Tommy Henry and a complete team effort behind him. Michigan now practices in the local parks for a few days until their eventual Friday night opponent works its way through the losers side.

In today’s contests we have another 2 n BBQ game this morning featuring Louisville and Auburn. Louisville opened -130 in this game which seemed low. Today it stands Louisville -220. Dog or pass game one no doubt.

Tonight’s contest seems more playable yet the line on that chalk, Vanderbilt who is a deeply talented ballclub has risen from the open of -140 to -180….just what I want to see.

Seemingly MSU could be as high and believing as Auburn is low and slow? We’ll pass on today’s first contest while we wait with the aspiration that there’s more value coming on the Bulldogs.  

--6-17-19 4pm PT--

Michigan +145

--6-17-19 9:15am PT--

They betting the Hogs (-190) like they know Tech (+160) is allergic to slop! Patience....let's see where this goes.

--6-17-19 6:45am PT--

Watching Auburn throw their victory away in game one against MSU was a sickening thing to endure and I’m not really feeling poorly for we Tiger bettors because in sport the game does not get tabulated until the little ‘F’ goes next to the numbers. No, I feel terrible for that young college kid who had helped fulcrum the Auburn lead then in the heat of fury made an error that will haunt the Auburn Tigers for some time.

I don’t see Auburn rebounding from this loss though we don’t handicap their next match-up until manana. Today we have an elimination contest at 11am PT featuring Texas Tech and Arkansas two teams who most thought would be tussling in tonight’s featured winners bracket game.

Arkansas -150 vs. Texas Tech +130

Arkansas will start freshman (P) Noland while Tech is considering their usual number two (P) Kilian though they also have a pitcher on their squad who transfered from Arkansas they may decide to toss in there based on a farmiliarity aspect. Seems Tech is thinking alot about who'll take the hill today. One thing to consider is that last year's CWS Champion Oregon State won the title fromthe loser's bracket. Time to grind hardballers!

Each of these teams has Omaha experience from last year so look for a highly competitive and close ballgame today. Of note: Arkansas beat Tech this year in Fayettville 5-1 and LY here in the CWS 7-4, these two have a little history. Both the Hogs and the Raiders played mediocre baseball away from their respective home ball fields this year so a cvlose conservative approach seems insured. For one of these storied College Baseball programs with Championship aspirations…. it’s going to be the dreaded…two n BBQ!

Any release will be posted here….

--6-16-19 13:50pm PT--

Auburn +250 (half)

--6-16-19 10:30am PT--

Louisville +200 (half)

--6-16-19 9:20am PT--

Two outstanding College baseball games were played yesterday and two capable underdogs displayed the pitching, fielding heart and hustle that each of the Omaha eight deploy in order to try to move ahead in this Tournament. As released the Michigan Wolverine’s (+145) pitched their way past a team they visited earlier this year who'd  run them out of the barn in three straight. Michigan is a threat to bust some chops in this bracket.

So today we notice that both SEC squads are getting mucho attention. Vandy opened -200 and MSU Bulldogs opened -210. Currently both are -250 and the public has not presented their parlay cards.The strategy is to hold tight until we get close to the puck drop of the first ballgame (11am PT) as I view the Cardinal a capable canine at the opening number let alone where it is now and where it may be going.
Keep an eye on the site and twitter.

Happy Father’s Day to all Father’s out there.   

--6-13-19 6:50am PT--

The College World Series field is set and play begins this Saturday June 15th at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Ne.

Here are odds to win for each of the eight teams with a short synopsis of each and finally Series releases based on my review of the numbers and understanding of this event. Individual game releases will be available here on VSiN later this week as well my webpage GambLou.com.

Odds to Win 2019 CWS (by bracket)

Bracket I:  Arkansas +300 Texas Tech +500 Florida St. +1000 Michigan +2000

Bracket II: Vanderbilt +300   Mississippi St. +400 Louisville +800 Auburn +1500

The Tournament

Mandatory to handicapping this event is gaining an understanding of the bracket system for this Tournament (how advantageous it is to win the first two games), the nuances of the ball park in Omaha, and finally the analytics behind each team. Together this information assimilated by Ol” Uncle Louie and delivered to you today will allow you to make a deep run in this most outstanding Tournament.

Of major importance for any CWS Tournament Champion is a team’s ability to pitch, field, sacrifice, hit singles/doubles as opposed to home runs and finally score runs. This is a small ball Tourney park as it sits low next to the Missouri river and the wind blows directly into hitter’s teeth so teams that effectively pitch, field and play small ball succeed over unbalanced teams that rely on the HR and power.

Bracket I

Vanderbilt is superbly coached by Tim Corbin, their past experience in Omaha runs deep as they won title in 2015 and last year were eliminated by CWS Champion Oregon St. in Corvallis last year in the Super Regionals. By the numbers Vandy has it all and they deserve to be labeled Tourney chalk. The one hesitation I have for them is that they lack CWS experience as well the side of the bracket they are on has the other SEC in it.

Mississippi St. happens to be the other SEC team and they dominate the defensive numbers I track such as Team ERA (3.59 second best in the Tourney), WHIP, hits allowed per nine innings and fielding percentage. Supplementing those defensive numbers is the fact that the Bulldogs were in Omaha last year and competed well, they return a core of their group and march into this Tournament poised to complete a chore they began last year. Led by the top pitching talent in the Tourney in Ethan Small (1.80 ERA 90 innings pitched) MSU is a legitimate threat to win this Tournament and they arrive as hot as any team in the field.

Louisville is an underrated team in a brutal first round set-up. While they are hiding behind the bluster of the SEC let’s not overlook a team that’s been knocking on the door of this Championship for years. Louisville is as dominant by the numbers in all the categories already mentioned as MSU but they do not get the first game draw that MSU does (they play Number one ranked Vanderbilt). Louisville is a team that earned their way to Omaha in 2017 going 1-2 so there are some Cardinal upper classmen that have been here prior. Louisville is a super sleeper in this side of the bracket IF they can vex Vanderbilt game one. The Cardinal arrives high on belief and deep with talent. Contender.

Auburn is a team that played outstanding baseball late as well benefited by competing against the dynamic talent and depth of championship baseball played in the SEC. Analytically Auburn is the weak sister not only in this bracket but in this Tourney and I look for the Tigers (without a lick of CWS experience) to go “two and BBQ” which in Omaha means two games and out.

Bracket II

Arkansas is a team that I released prior to the Regionals (mentioned on ‘the Edge’ with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel) +1200. Arkansas was here last year and they were one game away for the Championship. Coach Van Horn used to coach in Lincoln, NE so we know the crowd in Omaha will be ‘hog wild’ over Arkansas. The Hogs numbers indicate that they are in the top half of their Tourney field in all important categories. They are focused and they are fortunate enough to play in the bracket with no other SEC club.

Texas Tech is a perennial Omaha participant as they went 1-2 in 2016 then 2-2 in ’17 before missing last year. Tech is a ‘hardball program’ and while their team is relatively young and inexperienced the pitching staff is comprised of players who have been to Omaha before though most of the talented arms are underclassmen. Tech packs offensive pop, can field and their past experience should help overcome their relative lack of effective pitching. If they can get by a dangerous Michigan club in the first game these Red Raiders could be ready to surprise.

Florida State will be a crowd favorite only because the fans in Omaha recognize true greatness when they have a chance to acknowledge it. FSU HC Mike Martin will retire this year after being at the helm at FSU for thirty-nine years. He’s toted this FSU team into this Tourney on many occasions (their last visit was 2017) and has won the Championship eight times since 1996. Unfortunately for FSU it is my opinion that analytically, statistically and emotionally this team did all they could just to earn their way here. This marvelous group of overachievers tore through Georgia and LSU to punch one more ticket for Martin in Omaha. As much as I love the story and want a memorable Tourney for Martin it’s my judgement that they’ll have little left for these other seven squads 

Michigan could well be diamond in the rough. When handicapping this Tourney, I had already tossed this group of wily Wolverine’s out until I actually performed the research. Michigan has two of the top seven Pitchers by ERA in this Tourney. Michigan is fast, athletic and while they are completely without CWS experience they did manage to out pitch UCLA just to arrive here. Michigan is mispriced in my opinion and they present great value not only as a long shot in this Tourney but as a live dog against Texas Tech in game one. If they do win the first game you best believe Michigan could damage brackets in Omaha.

Releases

As mentioned, I released Arkansas +1200 prior to Regional action. Here are my suggested Future positions (one per bracket) based on today’s pricing (Westgate).

Bracket I: Arkansas +300

I hate to eat this price but they’re the only SEC team in this bracket and they were within one game of the Championship last year. They know the importance of winning the first two contests and they arrive with monumental momentum. This is for those that were unable to jump these swine +1200.

Bracket II: MSU +400

It’s really Mississippi State that I believe will be the one to beat in this bracket for the same reasons as Arkansas. They were in this Tourney last year, they pitch well, field/play defense and will install ace Small as the game one pitcher against an overmatched Auburn group.

An all SEC Final is my prediction

Michigan, this team is mis-priced. They can play baseball with this athletic roster and if they had a touch of experience, I’d really be all over them. This release is for game one and let me be on record as saying that Michigan’s team is worthy enough to not only be here…. but compete.

Michigan +125 as dog game 1 

( 9-15-19 7:20am PT: current pricing Michigan +145 patience as it's cllimbing)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final: Revenge 49 years in the making - 6/13/2019

* For College World Series Intelligence please access the 'College World Series' tab on the top of this webpage

I cannot be more content for the fine City of St. Louis and all their fans for a mission competed which took forty-nine years in the making and was fueled by five decades of frustration and delivered by a group with a singlemindedness of purpose, commitment to team and love for their community.  

For two years now I have spoken about ‘the Hockey gods’ and if you do not believe in them then you are missing a sizable portion of what it is to handicap a passion sport like Hockey playoffs puckheads.

Let’s account!

2019 NHL Playoffs: 41-41   50%   +17.56u  +23.89 ROI

It’s business...

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final Boston vs. St. Louis: Seventh Heaven - 6/9/2019

--6-12-19 9:50am PT--

The Stanley Cup Trophy will be hoisted in Boston tonight, the only thing we need to sweat out is whom it is that will hoist.

Our final series wagers reflect a half unit win should the Bruins prevail and a 2.9 unit profit should the Blues add one more win to their already impressive 9-3 road result in this year’s Tournament. I learned many years ago that stubborn betting was losing betting which is why I fight my inner competitive nature to just fire away on the Blues this evening. My guy say's fire but my years in this business have taught me to take the money and run! We’ll grab profit from this year’s Tourney and move forward.

There’s nothing remaining to say except to congratulate each Organization /team for making this a terrifically competitive seven game series. My respect to all the athlete’s in this year’s Tourney and especially the two stellar squads in this year’s Final series.

--6-9-19 10:30am PT--

--updated 4:50pm PT--

I have always expressed the need to use patience and gain every penny of value on each wager and the Blues price and Under are both gaining in value. It's business.

St. Louis -118 vs. Bruins +108                  Total 5 O-160                 Puckline Blues -1.5 +250                              

Series Blues -280/Bruins +250

Any pressure in tonight’s Stanly Cup Final game six cannot lie with ‘the little engine that could’ Blues as they’ve been listening to how poorly matched they are while playing from behind in the series against a team everyone claimed was far superior to them. Today they play a game for everything with the mindset of believers.

Outside of St. Louis few gave this team a chance but the few that did understood how deep seeded passion and determination can unify a group bonded together in the chains of commitment for a single purpose.

Pressure you ask? No F’ing way…instead look to the fulfillment of a lifelong dream for each player who selflessly have put themselves in position to free a tremendous hockey city of its secondary moniker and elevate it to the stature an original twelve hockey city should enjoy.

As I view it puckheads, each minute that passes the pressure mounts on the Bruins for they are the team trying to overcome past Cup disappointment (2013 Blackhawks) and injuries to their starting roster while at the same time trying to protect and contribute to the ‘City of Champions’ thing that is as tangible to them (organization, players and fans) by way of pressure as the frustration of not being a Championship franchise has been for the Blues for FIFTY YEARS.

I believe the Blue’s close this series out today and I believe they must. The threat of going back to Boston is real (for them) but the focus today is pinpoint precise for they aren’t thinking about getting on any plane puckheads.

Tonight the Blues will ratchet up the intensity and physicality against a Bruin team that is thin in depth, battered on defense and arriving physically/mentally depleted yet fueled by guile, grit and grizzle. Boston’s championship pride won’t be enough to overcome a whuppin that’s been fifty years in the making.

Revenge is best served …. on ice!

Those who follow me understand that I take a purely bottom line approach to all futures and series wagers. Accruing modest profit on a regular basis (as well minimizing loss) is how I operate my gaming business. Those who wish to ride the Blues may choose that route. I will not as I’ll take the Bruins +250 series position for one unit. This provides me the freedom to be able to make a half unit wager or two on tonight’s tilt knowing that this season has been stallar and tonight I hope to sitness the liberation of a fine hockey City.

Blues -1.5 +250 (half)       Under 5 +140 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 238 Moraes vs. Cejudo: Toe to toe in Chi-ca-go! - 6/8/2019

Toe to toe in Chi-ca-go today fight Enthusiasts as UFC 238 is stacked with great fights and mangy mutts. I offered readers a pretty poor performance last week so I am happy to be able to turn this around quickly and offer the following potential profitable pups.

We’ll start with the Main event breakdown published Wednesday on VSiN’s PSW.  I’ll give a shout out to the VSiN crew for allowing me the platform for my UFC thoughts and the unexpected residual I have gained from submitting these breakdowns so early each week. Submitting fight breakdowns on Tuesday prior to Saturday events has been a positive practice though it is difficult formulating final thoughts without having viewed the weigh-ins.

Of course when playing pooches in the UFC (and in most any sports) it’s a good practice to wait until the last moment to wager in order to capture every cent of value on underdogs.  Capturing the best of the number in any gaming endeavor is as critical to a bettor’s success as anything else they may do.  I strive to obtain value in every release made.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 6-5-19 Point Spread Weekly—

UFC 238 comes live from Chicago, IL. Saturday with two title fights, a major Lightweight battle (Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone) and numerous other highly competitive match-ups. Fight fans are sure to enjoy the combat as there is diverse talent scattered throughout the card ranging from 115lb. female fatales to 265lb. Heavyweight ho-downs.

Marlon Moraes -120 vs. Henry Cejudo +100 Bantamweight Title Fight (135lbs.)

For this MMA enthusiast Saturday’s main event is the most anticipated confrontation of the year. Not only are these two world class competitors but they each bring a diverse and highly effective fighting arsenal into the Octagon for this title fight.

Henry Cejudo is THE most adroit and capable wrestler on the UFC roster. He is unusually competitive and without question is a pure bottom line winner. The dominant mindset established by his Olympic wrestling capability/success is the basis for vast improvements in his boxing/striking. He is mentally driven to excel as proven by his past accomplishments. Cejudo has displayed the quickness, speed and agility to dominate at Flyweight (125lbs.) so it will be most interesting to determine if he can transfer those traits into advantage despite moving up ten pounds to compete for this Bantamweight title. 

Kryptonite to the BJJ specialized fighter is world class wrestling, Cejudo in my judgement MUST find a way to crowd, smother and eventually clinch/grope/wrestle Moraes. He must not fall into the belief that his striking has come so far (because of the impressive result against Dillashaw) that he will be able to stand with Moraes and compete effectively in this fight which would be a huge mistake because his striking has not come THAT far!

Both men rely heavily on their legs in fights, for Cejudo he utilizes his legs to impede/trip opponents while in the clinch allowing him to slam the competitor on the floor. Once Henry gets most opponents to the floor he dominates and it’s in his best interest to make this a wrestling match at all costs. Cejudo has the Championship mindset, the wrestling base and speed/quickness but he moves up in weight and fights a legitimate Championship caliber opponent.

Marlon Moraes is a destructive fighting force highly decorated with black belts in Muay Thai (striking) and BJJ which is more a grappling ground expertise. Moraes upon his arrival to the UFC has fought and dominated only top-rated foes in the Bantamweight division. In each fight he has looked absolutely dominant (Moraes actually lost a split decision to Rafael Assuncao in his UFC debut then in his last fight gained revenge by submitting the perennial Bantamweight contender).

Moraes use of legs involves destructive blunt force trauma as he utilizes precision placed leg, body and head kicks to injure opponents while mixing powerful hand/elbow striking. His feinting and head movement allow him to confound and instill hesitation into opponents which is the prelude to those unrelenting strikes arriving from any angle and level.

In a recent fight, Kevin Lee who stepped up in weight to fight Rafael Dos Anjos was unable to bring appropriate energy into the championship rounds and it was because he had a difficult time managing the adjusted weight and fighting a man with more mass.

I believe Cejudo just like Lee will toil, not as much by fighting at the higher weight but by competing against a guy that has fought against other legitimate 135ers (we know these guys weigh about 153-155lbs. by the time they ring the bell) and dominated.

Moraes has been yearning for this chance his whole career. He’ll have size, reach and power advantages as well the advantage of training in the same camp as wrestling great Frankie Edgar & Co. where he can work on being wrestled daily.

Moraes opened -175 for this fight in faraway places and Cejudo money has dropped that price to -120. I mentioned on a recent appearance of “The Edge’ with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel that Moraes (at the time -115) was an absolute release so I’ll remain committed to Moraes.

Moraes -120

Valentina Shevchenko -1500 vs. Jessica Eye +850 Woman’s Flyweight title (125lbs.)

Nothing exemplifies how shallow the talent is in each of the Women’s divisions of the UFC like the spread on this fight. Shevchenko will hold this title as long as she wants to for she’s far superior in this weight class to anyone. She’s technically sound, fast and can fight for five hours let alone five rounds but she packs little power and must impose her dominance via time and volume not power and might.

Pass

I’ll have further breakdown’s and releases later in the week especially an opinion on the Ferguson -150 vs. Cerrone +130 bout on GambLou.com.

Last week Ilir Latifi, Volkan Oezdemir’s opponent had to pull out of the fight via injury so we’ll plan on attacking this main event knowing Moraes -120 is a value opportunity.

Good Luck to all and Thank You for reading

--updated 6-8-19 8am PT—

Moraes is now -135 in the main event. Henry seems to be highly intense based on the weigh-ins and face offs. The key to this fight is Moraes ability to keep the fight standing and neutralize Henry’s trips, taps and takedown attempts. This will be a super fight. Many pundits feel this is an under 3.5 rounds type fight but I feel just the opposite. I believe it takes Marlon into the fourth or fifth round to display an edge in precision/sharpness which will allow him to take advantage of the extra weight Henry will be toting for this bout and eventually catch him with something forceful once Cejudo begins to feel the effects of fighting a man that is accustomed to fighting men weighing one hundred and fifty pounds on a regular basis.

Ferguson -145 vs. Cerrone +135

Pressure, this fight will be determined by pressure. Can Tony apply it and how will Cowboy deal with it. I say that Ferguson has all the loose ‘nuts and bolts’ to be legit crazy in the Octagon. That scares rational folk and Cowboy has never fared well against aggressive forward pressing maniacs. Ferguson’s plan is to apply pressure and come at the Cowboy with volume strikes from every angle.

Cowboy’s plan I believe will be to try to catch Tony coming in via the counter strike and take advantage of a Ferguson weakness which can be strike defense as the guy sometimes sells out to press his offensive barrage. This plan may be effective but it is also passive. I believe this is a tough spot for Cerrone who is a valiant courageous fighter but will eventually succumb to the unrelenting pressure from Ferguson. Ferguson opened -180 which I believe is more accurate depiction of his talent.

Ferguson -145

Grasso -115 vs. Kowalkiewicz +105

Value play here. Kowalkiewicz opened -195 here and granted that may be a tough aggressive but I do view her as the more complete fighter and therefore worthy -150 or so chalk. Grasso backers have pounded the number down to pick-em. Grasso is an improving fighter with gaping areas of improvement and Karolina is a fighter on the down side of her career but the level of experience, skill and ability she possesses point me to the Pole.

Kowalkiewicz +105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Stanley Cup Final Blues vs. Bruins: Elimination - 6/3/2019

--6-6-19 7am PT--

Stanley Cup Final series price:

Blues -310 vs. Bruins +250

Once again we find ourselves in the position of trusting our handicapping rather than being pushed by the over reacting, lack of perspective press into believeing what happened in the last game is now the foundation for future games.  

The press in its ever so narrow scope of view and lack of historical perspective do allow us as contrarians to profit by driving the masses right into recency blindness. Here's a tip of the hat to all the hockey press people (really all sports press pundits) out there that talk about everything except what matters most. The physical and mental capability of the team inside the loker room. 

We got options puckheads and by now most of you can predict the next move. Insured bottom line or Belly up to the Blues?

--6-5-19 4:20pm PT--

Puckheads with a little bit o faith own the Blues +145 skating into Beantown tonight.

The Bruins are angling mirrors against the sun to try to blind the underdogs into believing this is too big a chore for them and that they don’t have the players because of injuries to compete…Please.

The Blues will not underestimate this team nor will they let up because they fall into believing that the B’s are injured because they know they are are not.

That said, Chara is now the target make little mistake about it and the swarming, aggressive Blues forecheck will try to compete deep into the game with these heavily favored B’s by pounding their inexperienced and thin defensemen into the boards.

Meanwhile the wiley, savvy, beguiling B’s will look to play the Blue’s game but then employ their advantage…quickness and explosion in order to turn the tide and upend the heavy, hammering upstart Blues. Now the table’s set for dinner only one thing to do now…..eat

 

--6-5-19-10:15amPT--

Released Tuesday via Twitter:

Blues +145

--6-3-19 4:30pm PT--

I‘m greatly anticipating this hockey game puckheads….St. Louis is basically basked so it’s time to recoup two units of future loss in the remaining games of this series. Also, I feel that if I can over react enough to the Blues game three loss, I may be able to overcome and reverse the harsh reality I feel is sure coming their way.

What we have learned about the community of St. Louis is that they are hugely human paying reverence to Laila and family while at the same time carrying the weight of a rabid hockey city striving to earn the legitimacy they’ve longed for since their inclusion into the original twelve in 1967.

To this puck purist, the great city of St. Louis earned their puck respect decades ago but the fact is that there’s a critical contest tonight and the B’s loom LARGE in this situation according to my numbers….

The Boston Bruins fully understanding that if they win this game they bust the Blue’s bubble and overcome the frustration of losing the Cup to the Hawks in 2015. There’s real passion here on both sides puckheads and it makes my decision an easy one.

Tonight we witness passion, single minded focus and the essence of what each of these two teams really are….

Under 5.5 -105 (Southpoint)

this line is -130 and higher at most off shore locations. I still recommend the wager

 

Puckheads I am certain the Blues are going to be UN-able to overcome the colossal pants shitting they administered to themselves in game three.

Penalties we going to be the St. Louis advantage in this series and I handicapped that completely wrong as it is St. Louis that is grabbing, reacting and losing what was a great opportunity to reward their loyal fans with a hoisting. It appears to me the only hoisting they’ll be doing is loading their equipment into their vans for the long trip home in but a few days time. Can these Blue’s still react and win this Championship? My numbers say they have about a one in five shot. That means we may have to take a different approach this evening. Stay tuned and check the ‘Hockey’ tab as we near the drop of the Puck for what is going to be the most important game of this series…. thus far.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final Blues vs. Bruins Gm3: top shelf entertainment - 6/1/2019

Stanley Cup Final passion heads to a critical game three tonight in St. Louis where the beguiling, savvy, experienced Bruins understand full well that they must win tonight or become a footnote in the annals of second place finishers in this Tournament.

These cagey B’s must strangle the Blue’s in front of a frenetic crowd tonight and gain the 2-1 series advantage for they know the winner of game three in a Cup series tied 1-1 goes on to win 79% of the time.

The Bruins have a corner on experience and public sentiment as they arrive to St. Louis poised to try to do one thing to the Blues tonight; frustrate them then choke them out. It’s names like Rask, Marchand and Bergeron that the B’s must read on the box score if they are to extend this series and pose a real threat to these upstart Blues.

The Blue’s meanwhile are in position to decide whether they’re potential Champions or perennial pukes for this game is THE telling contest in this series and everyone with a hockey puck for a brain knows this. Binnington, defense and belief on one end and a frenetic furious forecheck on the other. Let's not forget five decades of frustration for this year we're witnessing ..

“Revenge 50 years in the making” …

Blues -110 (half)          Under 5 +130 (half)


UFC Stockholm Gustafsson vs. Smith: Nordic Blast - 5/31/2019

This UFC card from Stockholm is well timed as the prelims kick off at 7am PT with main event dropping about noon or so PT. This allows for a concentrated fight effort backed up by a passionate game three in St. Louis between he Blues and the Bruins.

My ‘Point Spread Weekly’ article is below and the Oezdemir -115 release within it has been scratched doe to Ilir Latifi being unable to make the fight because of a back issue. Unfortunate so I’ll simply update my article and add a couple of value releases on fighters who I believe will show up poised to perform.

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 5-29--19 Point Spread Weekly—

The UFC visits Stockholm Sweden this week with an early Saturday matinee for fight fans viewing from the PST. They’ll kick off the prelims at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 10am PT.

The final three fights on this Stockholm card feature Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.) matchups which will go a long way in determining pecking order in a weight class depraved of any viable threat to Champion Jon Jones. I’ll briefly break down each of these three fights, the first of which will go off around 11:15am PT.

Alexander Gustafsson -300 vs. Anthony Smith +240 Light Heavyweight Main Event

Each of these men went down to defeat against Champion Jones in their last fight. Gustafsson has faced the far superior level of competition. He is a boxing-based fighter with an effective kicking arsenal and excels in the clinch where he can use his knees to inflict damage. Gus wants to employ distance so he may effectively use his length to precision strike opponents’ legs, body and head. He fights at home and will look to make a statement regarding his top ranking in hierarchy of this division come Saturday AM.

Smith is also a boxing striking based fighter who uses less movement and more pressure to unleash his power punching. Smith’s footwork and quickness are detriments honestly as well as his defense. Although he looked to perplex Champion Jones in his last outing it’s my belief that sometimes when two fight, the competition can come off awkward and ugly as that fight did. 

Gustafsson is a worthy chalk here but I don’t chase -300 chalk. I’ll look for props/rounds lines when they’re released for this fight as I believe it probable that Gus finishes Smith Saturday.

Volkan Oezdemir -115 vs. Ilir Latifi Light Heavyweight Co Main event

Two Swiss fighters who’ve trained extensively in the past face one another to determine who steps up in this division and who falls back into the mosh pit.

Latifi is appropriately nicknamed ‘the Sledgehammer’ as he is stocky, quick, explosive and ultra-powerful relying on destructive roundhouse punching early in fights. He has a solid wrestling base which allows him to keep his fights standing where he can pressure opponents to get inside their reach in order to deliver punishment from the inside. In this fight I could see Latifi trying to work Oezdemir to the ground because Latifi may find the stand-up challenging against this opponent. Latifi can also counter well but his biggest concern is his ability to fight effectively past six/seven difficult minutes as his size requires massive amounts of energy use and his history shows that he tends to wear down quickly with his style of explosive offensive output.

Oezdemir is five years the younger man which provides him some advantage numerically from the start. He’s also the taller, longer fighter versed in BJJ but who wants to use his kickboxing background to batter opponents and finish them.

Oezdemir who I believe is a top five fighter in this division impressed me in his last outing against up and coming Dom Reyes losing a split decision that could have gone either way in my judgement. He’ll be finitely focused on getting back into the win column after that last outcome which he feels he won.

Oezdemir faces a stylistically ‘made’ opponent for his skills as evidenced in his Opening price of -175 which I handicapped as spot on. A steady flow of Latifi money has compressed that line to its current -115 creating great value on Oezdemir.

Oezdemir -115

Racik -220 vs. Manuwa +180

Racik is twelve years younger, four inches taller and will look to knock out the more experienced Englishman in this fight. Manuwa has power but unfortunately he telegraphs his ‘Sunday shots’ and has an extremely short fuse (cardio). If he is to win this fight, he must immediately take this fight to Racik and engage him from the inside. This will allow Manuwa to fight without threat of Racik being able to use distance to unleash his power as well allow Manuwa to unleash his damage up close and personal.

Racik is taking a big step up class in this fight and while he holds some physical advantages he has not been really tested by a top talent at Light Heavyweight and a desperate Manuwa trying to retain his top ranking and fight credibility in the division will be a great test for the young Serbian.

Racik opened -285 and I tend to think Manuwa is live in this spot but this line may creep back up so let’s monitor it pending weigh-ins and further developments later this week.

--updated 5-31-19 11:15am PT—

A UFC card in the early AM makes for a happy Uncle Louie understanding the Stanley Cup Hockey is at a level where nothing keeps me from watching every second…so it’s fisticuffs in the morning and passion that night. Sounds like my marriage lol.

Gustafsson -300 vs. Smith +280

There’s little to add other than I have never been impressed with Smith as a martial artist. He’s long on heart and guts then short on everything else required to be world class. I feel strongly enough about Gus to use him in the first leg of a parlay….

Hadzovic -160 vs. Giagos +140

Value comes in all ways shapes and forms and in this fight Giagos who opened +195 has been bet down to +150. Giagos will need to get this fight to the ground to control the Bosnian bomber Hadzovic who’s last five results have impressed me in that he has tussles with top end grapples like Patrick and Held and done reasonably well against each. Hadzovic’s striking will be far more effective against Giagos than will Giagos ground game. Hadzovic opened -275 and now he is in the strike range.

Gustafsson -300/Hadzovic -160 parlay (+118)

Racik -200 vs. Manuwa +180

This line has compressed since early week with support incoming on Manuwa. I do like Jimi here but old, slowing fighters with fragile chin’s scare the hail out of me. That said, Racik is unathletic, has fought poorly calibrated UFC talent and is stepping way up in class against a fighter that has been in with the top fighting talent in the division.  Racik’s power is negligible and Manuwa’s anger is off the charts as he feels utterly disrespected. He may be right…

Manuwa +180 (half)

Clark -110 vs. Stosic +100

Again, value. Stosic is the shorter more deliberate striking talent while Clark has athleticism, unorthodox striking and a porcelain chin. Stosic opened -265 for this fight and the Euro’s must be clamoring to claim Clark for Stosic is now +100. I’ll take the stoic Serbian to pressure Clark unrelentingly and eventually touch him on the teeth.

Stosic +100

Jo -135 vs. Teymur +125

Teymur’s brother David is a legitimate UFC fighter. This Teymur is on the card because it is in Sweden. He’s very short for Lightweight and will be giving away height, reach and age against the South Korean ship in Jo who is making his UFC debut. Teymur has no more motivation than to win this fight in front of his hommies but other than heart and five minutes of fight he has nothing that tells me he should even be in the UFC. Meanwhile this kid Jo has been getting groomed for his big chance for months and it’s my opinion that the UFC will bolster itself in its effort to enhance its brand in the Orient by matching this young talent up with a set up situation…. that’s exactly how I see this fight.

Jo -135

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final Bruins vs. Blues: REMATCH 1970 gm2 - 5/29/2019

--5-29-19 4pm PT--

Blues +155 gm2

but as always...patience and try for +160

--5-29-19 7:20am PT--

All playoffs long we’ve maintained a trust in the handicapping process by remaining committed to our series wagers which has resulted in bottom line profitability. After watching the Blues pee all over themselves after a fine start in game one the easy thing to do would be to bail on them by succumbing to and joining the tsunami of suckers coming out of the woodwork to back the B’s.

That, however we will not do. One thing I have come to realize and trust deeply is that, “everyone is usually wrong”. It’s in my DNA puckheads as Springsteen wrote decades ago when I was young and formative, “When they said, sit down, I stood up”.

This series is now lined:

Bruins -300 vs. Blues +250 (series)

As I see this Final series unfold it is my aspiration that Boston does in fact decide that they can play physical forceful hockey with the Blues because honestly over the long haul I don’t believe they can as well I believe it distracts them from the advantageous use of their speed/precision and forces them to play a style of puck less suited for their strengths and more suited to allowing the Blues to beat the bosox out of the Bruins over a long physical series.

The Blues need to win one of the next two games puckheads and if they can at least do that we’ll be poised to watch these two compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup over a long and grueling series. They’ll have to hold off on the victory celebrations in Beantown for a time while the Blues find their discipline and get back into this series.

Blues series +250

I may also go with the Blue’s tonight but let’s hold off and let ‘everyone’ bang them B’s and drive our road dung price up in value.....


Stanley Cup Final Bruins vs. Blues: Rematch 1970 gm2 - 5/22/2019

All NHL Playoff Hockey releases/results can be accessed by using the 'Hockey' tab on the top of this page.

The Photo I’ll use during the Stanley Cup Final is fitting and foundational in my connection to hockey for I watched this play, game and series live back in the day with my father who was the one pure Bruin’s fan. Sanderson (on the right) had passed the puck to Orr who put it past Glen Hall on a one tap play to sweep the Blues and earn their firsat Cup since the 1940's.  

It was my dad viewing and explaining the game of Hockey to me when I was not yet twelve that spawned my deep seeded love for hockey today. The old man played youth hockey with Gordie Howe in Omaha decades ago and he transferred his love for the game/Tournament to this mangy mutt handicapper.

This Bruin vs. Blues series is a rematch of a 1969 Stanley Cup Final where a young revolutionary, transcendent talent Bobby Orr skated a heavily favored Boston team to a four game sweep of the newly formed Blues club.

Orr lead a band of crazy Bruins laced with veteran knuckleheads like Derek Sanderson, generational grinders like Johnny Bucyk and fluent scorers like Phil Esposito. Orr’s Stanley Cup winning tally not only is a most famous sports image but it’s etched forever in my brain as I jumped around the family room with my pops celebrating Boston's achievement.

Later this week I’ll have appearances on VSiN’s ‘The Edge’ with my friends Matt Youmans and Jonathan VonTobel as well appear on Ken Thompson’s Las Vegas SportsX radio show Friday night to break down this Final series. I'll have many thoughts regarding and  I’ll reserve most of my thoughts on the Cup Final until I get through those media sessions but will surely post my full series breakdown and path to profitability sometime early this upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

Rematch fifty years in the making......Oh, the Passion! 

2019 Profitability through three rounds: 36-34    51.43%    +14.71u   ROI 23.33%


Campbell Confrontation Blues vs. Sharks Gm6 - 5/21/2019

Well puckheads our set up after game one where we grabbed the Blues +200 series seems to have been a savvy selection. That said, I am not in the gambling business I am in the Profitable Sports Gaming business and rather than let the +200 get lonely, we’ll cover that investment to create the simple and mundane win/win scenario. This will allow me to focus on the game (s) remaining in the Campbell and prepare for the Final series. Today’s tactic is easy.

Sharks series +300 (half)

This creates a net .50-unit profit should the Sharks do the unexpected and bring this series back to San Jose for a final seventh contest (and win) or a net 1.5u profit should the Blues batter the nicked-up Sharks tonight in St. Louis or in game seven God forbid.

I do expect the Blues to win this series and both appease those whiney Vegas Knight fans and march into next week’s Cup final a team of believers. They’ll face a bunch in Boston that will have been off for a week plus by the time they drop the frozen rubber as well listening to the locals bask in the glory that is recent Boston dominance across all sports right now (pressure).

Based on my observations this playoff season, there are only the intangibles of time and expectation that may possibly slow or impede the Bruin momentum heading into this final series of the Stanley Cup Tournament.

I’ll have much reminisce about if hockey can in fact produce a rematch of the great 1969/70 Stanley Cup that featured the Bruins against the Blues where Boston revolutionary talent Bobby Orr made the greatest tally in Boston Bruins history. Much to discuss….


UFC +10 Dos Anjos vs. Lee: Fishhook on the Finger Lakes - 5/18/2019

For 2019 NHL Playoff releases and detailed results by round please access the "Hockey" tab at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. 

I was unable to breakdown the main event for UFC Rochester for VSiN this week due to a few personal issues that are now in the rear view mirror. As far as addressing the main event I can say that early week I would have had little opinion on this fight because of the unknowns surrounding it early week. At this point however I believe there are a few things that have cleared up for me.

Today’s breakdowns will be brief, brave and barking.

--Let’ Fight--

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

Dos Anjos -110 vs. Lee +100

This is a difficult fight to really feel confident about because of the unique circumstances involved with each cat. Lee moves up for the first time and profits from the blueprint to victory vs RDA set forth by Covington and Usman.

Where I see a difference between Lee and the other two is that Lee will not only have to address the new weight on his own frame but also be aware that RDA has had five bouts against larger men dropping into 170 and showing up fight night much heavier. It’s not that RDA is bigger or larger but more acclimated to facing men that hit the Octagon at 185 or higher.  The second reason is that this is a five round fight and when pressed Lee seems to tucker.

Now moving up to 170 may well help him with his cardio but I am highly doubtful for five rounds. In my judgement to win this fight Lee must wrestle for twenty-five minutes so moving up in weight to execute a wrestling plan against a guy equip to handle larger men than Lee (who weighed in 168) makes Lee a clear underdog in this fight yet he’s lined as pick-em.

RDA will hear everyone chide him for being old and washed up yet while he is on the downside it’s my judgement that he has plenty more to say inside the Octagon and it begins tonight. He’s navigated two grueling losses to Covington and Usman with which there’s no shame whatsoever. Lee at 170 for his first fight ain’t either of those guys. RDA will carve Lee up in the stand-up if Lee loses his mind and wavers from his plan to wrestling and that IS his plan. RDA will want to use distance, movement leg and fist striking to keep Lee up and off balance in order to execute this potential victory.

The cat and mouse here is how RDA will navigate Lee’s take downs and how Lee will react after the fatigue that only wrestling can instill in a human being begins to take effect in those middle rounds.  The longer this fight goes the more I like RDA to present Lee with a PhD. In MMA.

1:15pm PT

update RDA now +120...keep waiting for more...

RDA +120

Earlier this week on Fntsy Sports Radio with Gabriel Morency I released two dogs that I’ll stand up to.

Dawson -140 vs. Trizano +130

When I released Dawson it was Thursday and he was +125 so I’ll gladly take the heavy wrestling based fighter from Nebraska here. Trizano is more experienced and a better rounded fighter but I believe the smothering unrelenting wrestling of Dawson will prove to be well more effective than that of the palm tree Luis Pena who lumbered lethargically through his last bout against Trizano.

Dawson +125

(would not take Dawson at current pricing in fact would consider Trizano as he opened up -135 and this line has flipped. In this racket folks it’s the number not the team/fighter/racecar or whatever…soon as you realize this you are half way there!!!!)

Anderson -200 vs. Spencer +185

Spencer the local Canadian fighter was the second of my Thursday releases with Gabe. I like her simply because she’s an unrelenting wrestling based fighter against a pure striker who has little to no take down defense based on her body of work. Can a fighter instill base defense against the take down in months? Perhaps but this is a fight where each woman will be outclassed in the others area of expertise so where this fight takes place is the determining factor here. Spencer must maul Megan on the matt and Anderson knows if she keeps this standing she’ll shear Spencer.

Spencer +185 (half)

Carlos Jr. -170 vs. Heinisch +160

When I went into this fight research I felt like ‘Shoeface’ would be too beguiling, experienced and cagey for the Coloradan but since I did the work and watched some tape my opinion has been modified to think that it will be Heinisch who will pressure the Brazilian and try to make him fight. Heinisch has wrestling base enough to do a few things that most talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters dislike; pressure them, get on top of them and never quit trying to batter them. Together this ‘bully’ mentality that wrestlers can often inflict onto Brazilian JJ fighters has a similar effect as kryptonite to Supernman….it saps them of their will. I like Heinisch to bully, batter and hammer his way to a big win tonight. Funny how doing the work changed my mind….it happens mucho so the lesson here is to do the research….

Heinisch +160 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Campbell Final Blues vs. Sharks: Hand it to Sharks? - 5/12/2019

--5-17-19 4:15pm PT--

Rather than join the tsunami of premature puck purists and bet what we believe should be ‘the correct result’, we’ll gladly take the loosey-goosey road dung team that daily grows stronger in their determination to have a chance to hoist. Lifelong dreams are what we’re talking about here and game three personified how tight these battalions really are.

Just a limited few will claim the Sharks have had advantage from 'outside sources' but this particular perspective says that this is the greatest Tournament in Sport..forget about bad calls. You think since 1897 they've not had dissapointing results based on officiating? C'mon now puckheads.

This year, in 2019 the harrangers that hoist at the end of this unbelievable Tourney gain everything the previous winners have. Sports utmost respect. Those that feel otherwise have yet to serve the appropriate time in this passion play to have appropriate perspective. Hear that and accept it. 

Sharks +130 (half)

--5-16-19 3:35pm PT--

Hurricane's +100

(currently, but use patience ...get them as dog late) half

--5-15-19 4:25p PT--

The house will be rocking tonight in St. Louis where the Blues can pressure the Sharks with an impressive showing on home ice, something that honestly is a rarity from the Blues as they’re a meager 3-4 at home this playoff season. In nine of their playoff wins seven have come by one tally. That’s tight.

We benefit if the Blues snag a 2-1 series lead as Ol’ Uncle Louie and all profitable puckheads will be thrust into into the highly desirable win/win scenario. The Sharks will be +250 or better for the series if they drop tonight’s contest which provides us plenty of profit options come tomoroow and beyond understanding we already own the Blues for the series +200.

Tonight the Sharks show up like the unwanted road dung they are and best the Blues to add profit to our purses OR ....the Blues win and provide us an opportunity to pull profit off the table with no risk of loss. Either way, we're totally on top of this Tournament and we're only just past half way complete! 

Plan your work then work your plan….It’s business!

Sharks +125 (half)

to date: 33-30 50.77% +13.26u 

2 series wagers in play: Blues +200; 'Canes +260

--5-14-19 3:30pm PT--

We have a series wager working on the ‘Canes +260 so a win tonight changes this series exponentially. The ‘Canes are in a dire position tonight as if they drop this game this bunch of jerks goes fishing in a few days but with a victory they have a chance to do to the Bruins what they did to the defending Champions….lose two then take the series.

The ‘Canes are undefeated this playoff season at home (5-0 thus far) but they have been inconsistent in their bread and butter the forecheck and they’ve been only adequate between the pipes. Meanwhile the Bruins are playing disciplined hockey, they’re experiencing scoring across all lines and Tuukka Rask in net is a certain Conn Smythe consideration.

This one is going to be electric and as long as the ‘Canes can keep it simple, execute their forecheck in physical frenetic fashion, remain out of the penalty box and play solid in net then this series tightens up tonight. I do expect Curtis McElhinney in for the Jerks tonight....

We need this one as much as the ‘Canes do!

 ‘Canes -110 (half)

--5-13-19 3:20pm PT--

Puckheads, favorites are 16-11 in rounds II/III after going 20-26 in round I. While we wallowed in puck profitability round I from managing mangy mutts like maestro’s…. we’ve fallen victim to a little market correction since. That does not change the way my model kicks out NHL Playoff positions but is can sometimes adjust the amount wagered based on the info above.

San Jose looks unstoppable as they did prior to the playoffs though the wild card then was the horrendous netminding of Martin Jones. Seems since the Golden Shower series that Jones has found his groove. San Jose looks unstoppable but again, it’s the Blues who play ‘from the goal out’ and I still favor them in what is going to be a long grueling series as I handicap it.

Tonight let’s hope it’s the Sharks singing the blues….

Blues +125

Blues +200 (series)

*patience as this number is streaming up. players betting Sharks like they got tomorrow's sports page!

--5-12-19 11:14am PT--

The Bruins host the Hurricanes in today’s playoff matinee. The B’s stand 36-16 when they win game one of any seven game series so I understand that it’s difficult to consider stepping in front of that train. Also today the B’s top D Charlie McAvoy returns to the home ice where the Bostonians, who have come to expect greatness across all sports will be rabid in support. The B’s redly on Tukka Rask in net who’s playing outstanding in front of sound team defense and overall balanced scoring. This is a team thing, and experienced team thing.

Meanwhile the Hurricanes find out in the next two hockey games what kind of club they have. How will they react after outskating and outplaying the B’s for two periods in game one only to become undisciplined in the third and allowing them to snipe that win like a thief in the night. The ‘Canes will give us a fair effort tonight and we’ll see that this series is not going to be a pushover for the Bruins.

Sound ‘Cane defense, overall team speed and a marvelous effort form Mrazek must be the foundation along with a disciplined commitment to play five on five hockey at all costs!

‘Canes +135 (half, patience see if you can get +140)

*all releases/results available by accessing the 'Hockey" tab

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 237 Namajunas vs. Andrade: A Rose in Rio - 5/11/2019

Welcome fight fans to UFC 237 taking place outside Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card is stacked with Brazilian talent taking one fighters from all over the world and in one or two cases we are offered a fight where Brazilians fight one another. I will criticize the UFC when I believe they have it coming but I will always thank them for returning me to my roots, my pride and joy, Fighting. Fighting.

Here’s the main event breakdown from ‘Point Spread Weekly’ published each week on VSiN’s periodical. This gaming newsletter is pure gold and I would encourage aspiring and established profitable sports gamers to investigate it’s many benefits. Let me know if you want some help ‘navigating’ into a good deal year one. I’ll see what the ol’ Uncle can do for you.

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 5-8-19—

A Rose in Rio

UFC 237 comes to us live Saturday from Jeunesse arena in Rio De Janeiro Brazil. The card is steeped with competitive matchups featuring high profile Brazilian icons like Lil Nogueira, Jose Aldo and Anderson Silva each facing career defining fights.

Champion Rose Namajunas +115 vs. Jessica Andrade -135 Women’s Strawweight Championship (125lbs.)

Rose Namajunas has done nothing but impress the mixed martial arts community earning a 6-1 record since 2015. Two fights back she knocked out Joanna JÄ™drzejczyk in the first round of their Championship fight only to turn around immediately and do what few thought she could, thoroughly defeat Jedrezejczyk in their rematch just months later.

Namajunas is a well-rounded fighter. She uses fluid movement, forward pressure behind a good jab, precision striking and a full arsenal of kicks. Her BJJ is stellar though if on her back she tends to rely on it too much, she is athletic, well-conditioned and is efficient in the art of submitting an opponent. While effective at striking she uses volume to inflict damage as opposed to power.

Namajunas took time off after her defense of the title to recover from upper neck vertebrae issues suffered in training for that rematch. This is of concern to any in or around the fight business and while it must be discussed it must also be stated that Rose’s camp feels very confident that those issues are past and a non-factor Saturday.

To Namajunas’ credit, she CHOOSE to take this fight in Brazil and uses it as proof that she is focused on proving that she’s one of the top talents in Women’s MMA period. While I’m prone to react to claims by fighters to be the ‘best ever’, with hesitation, my study has uncovered that Namajunas is solely dedicated to fighting and though she does have to overcome the mental and physical remnants of her neck recovery I expect her to arrive ready to battle Saturday.

From the birthplace of Jiu-Jitsu comes Namajunas’ opponent, a one hundred- and twenty-five-pound Brazilian ‘pile driver’’ named Jessica Andrade. Prior to the UFC establishing a woman’s 125lbs. division Andrade had to compete at Bantamweight (135lbs.) facing larger, heavier longer women where she earned legitimate top ten recognition despite her smaller stature. Since her move to Strawweight (June 2015), Andrade has also realized a 6-1 record with the only blemish a loss to then Champion Jedrzejczyk.  

Her first opportunity at the Championship, that loss to Joanna in May of 2017 has served as a supreme motivator and lesson. Andrade reacted to that loss by mowing down all opponents since. Each fight has prepared her in supplemental fashion for this second test at the title.  

Andrade is the shorter, smaller fighter, she’ll be giving up three inches of reach with her arms, four inches with her legs but that will not prevent her from trying to walk down Namajunas and unleash a barrage of hooks, crosses and uppercuts to soften her up then try to maul her on the floor but she must resist the temptation to brawl.

While Andrade has no issue throwing down, in this fight her best path to the title is to utilize her grappling by forcing the fluid moving precision striking Namajunas to the ground to gain top position and deliver damaging ground and pound.

Investing in Andrade in Brazil is tempting against anyone in the division but this match-up may be a poor one for her if she is unable to navigate her way inside of Namajunas’ constant movement, precision striking and execute the takedown. On the floor Namajunas movement is nullified and Andrade’s lack of footwork is no factor. This is the key to the fight in my judgement as I do not see Andrade having success against Namajunas in a stand-up affair.

This fight opened Namajunas -140 vs. Andrade +100, it has now flipped to Andrade -130 vs. Namajunas +110 and it is still slowly rising. I view this as a most competitive match-up and feel the linemakers got it correct with the opening number.

I view Namajunas a slight favorite even in Brazil and will gladly take the value on her as an underdog but I will be patient and monitor this line as it will continue to rise as we near the opening bell (I have hopes of +130 by the time they ring the bell).

Namajunas +115 (or higher) 

--updated 5-11-19--

This line has been percolating but remains basically unchanged since the time I submitted the above breakdown.

The sole hesitation I have on this fight is the gesture made at the unofficial weigh-ins when Andrade offered Rose a rose. Many may feel I’m off my rocker here but that gesture may have been the simplest most effective form of warfare Andrade could have used.

Watch closely that clip of the weigh-ins. Andrade broke Rose down in that instance in my opinion. Did she win this fight before they even enter the Octagon? Only time will tell but suffice it to say that I am nervous about my position on Rose only because while appearing mentally sturdy there are doubts as to whether she is able to withstand this form of mental manuever.

Namajunas +125

Aldo -140 vs. Volkanovski +130

Jose Aldo is a top fighter of all time and is currently a top five fighter in the Bantamweight division. Aldo’s guile, savvy and experience make him a formidable threat. The fact that this fight is in Brazil and Aldo has stormed through a couple of high ranked pretenders has him premium and over priced. I see Volkanovski as a serious threat to Aldo in Brazil although I will give you that this is a substantial step up for the Aussie. Volkanovski is going to force this fight on Jose and make hi back up for fifteen minutes. I believe Volkanovski will help transition Aldo from  formidable contender at Bantamweight to fulltime restaurant owner in Rio.

Volkanovski +130

Alves -120 vs. Starpoli +110

Starpoli is young, strong, raw, wide, fast and dangerous. Alves was once all of those things, tonight I think he is ripe for a whuppin.

Starpoli +110

Cannonier -125 vs. Silva +115

Seems there’s plenty of Anderson love out there and I can see why. His three round display against Adesanya after being away from the cage for months was impressive. In Cannonier he’ll get let artistic movement and counter punching and more direct approach and power punching. I look for Cannonier to try to do what Ali preached for years, “take away the body and the head will die”. The issue with going into a body attack against Silva of course carries the risk of being on the receiving end of Silva’s superior knee attack. My head says Anderson but Cannonier trains out of the MMALab in Phoenix where I go for training and mental conditioning as I strive to understand the nuances of this game. Cannonier understands exactly what he needs to do but I’ll hesitate on making any release at this time with the hope that Anderson money continues to gravitate to the Goat therefore offering value on the other unwanted mangy side.....

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Wales Conference Championship: Bruins vs. Hurricane's - 5/5/2019

For 2019 NHL Playoff releases and detailed results by round please access the "Hockey" tab at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. 

2019 results to date stand 32-28  53.33%  +13.01u  +23.21 ROI

--5-9-19 4:42pm PT--

Tonight kicks off the Wales Conference Championship as Boston hosts Carolina in game one. It’s my opinion that a team off rest of 5 days of longer against a team with little to no rest is a disadvantage for the team with rest. I believe the Canes could have trouble gaining their legs in this first game.

In this series my head says B’s but my heart and ‘from the goal out’ philosophy says Brind’amour and the ‘Canes. I’ll tread easy here because my goal is to capture the ‘Canes as a dog but a dog that is priced better than the current +135 for the series.

Tonight we pass with the hope that the Bruins look like world beaters to allow a good bit of overreaction into game two where we may be able to pick up the Canes +230 or above! Patience….

We have outperformed last year’s gross profit margin which is nice but we’re only half way through this Tourney so this is no time to get fat and happy rather this is the time to gather ourselves and refocus on daily results as a 7-13 Round II result leaves plenty of room for improvement.

It’s Conference Finals now so we’ll be looking to make series, in series and daily releases as these two finals series progress. It's Business...

 

--5-8-19 5:12pm PT--

Game seven Sharks hosting Av’s and it’s not as easy as last night puckheads.

Tonight we are forced to handicap the game and try to earn a wage. With that in mind, Let’s execute the same plan I have been implementing for some decades let alone this playoff season. Road dung puckheads the value is with road dung.

Avalanche +135

Of course we’re waiting until the last minute because myself and you puckheads are the only insane-o’s off balance enough to believe that Grubauer can stand on his head and the Av speed can expose a mentally fragile Martin Jones.

Oh, Pavelski as the emotional edge? Yessiree! Pavelski offers us another nickel or dime on our road dung price people!

 

 

--5-7-19 2pm PT--

Well here we are Puckheads, game 7 Blues hosting Stars just as it was predicted. We find ourselves in the enviable position of not having to make any release this evening with the understanding that we executed our plan in this series efficiently. Our releases into tonight:

Stars +140

(series) one unit

Stars +250

(series) half unit

Blues +250

(series) one unit

So last evening after we split games (and turned tables on the ‘Makers by banking theier viggorish, Thank You Boston Bruins) we turn attention to tonight’s passion.

St. Louis is a pedestrian 2-4 at home this year in the playoffs while the Stars are 4-2 on the road.

It’s my view that these are the two best clubs remaining in the entirety of the Tournament and it is a shame one of these teams goes home tonight. For those who do not have our insured profit positions in place the call is an easy one. Stars +130

I’ll maybe play some in game but tonight is as easy as determining how much we won as opposed to whether we won!

Game 7 Sharks and Av’s manana!

---------------------

Into tonight’s game six between the Stars and Blues we have Stars +140 one-unit series wager and another Stars +250 half-unit wager working.

New readers will understand my overall wagering philosophy after today’s release because in 99% of the cases, I use the future wagers I make only as a tool to derive bottom line profit.

Today’s game six in the Stars/Blues series presents us with the simple win/win scenario which I will advise all who have been tailing me to consider. Those with only Dallas series bets I will recommend you apply this tactic though in the end it is the individual’s right to choose whether to cover, hedge or nullify wagers. For me It’s simple business to use those positions as a tool to derive profit and insure a deposit.

The Blues arrive in Dallas tonight a desperate yet capable club considering they’ve won four of five on the road in this year’s playoffs. The system is all about the Blues tonight and with that in mind we’ll choose this path to profitability.

Again, this is my approach to attacking these existing series bets, it’s entirely up to you how you choose to execute your own gaming.  For me this decision is one I have made numerous times and is easy to execute. Here is a recap of our results thus far…:

Current 2019 results                    26-19 (57.7%)    +12.09u*

*2018 NHL Playoff results were                        31-36 (46.27%) +10.55u   ROI 16.23%

As one can view I’ve exceeded last year’s total gross profits and we’re just coming up on the half way point of these 2019 playoffs. The single point of focus remains to enhance current profitability throughout the remainder of these playoffs while enjoying the passion of this Tourney.

Blues +240 (series)

This wager insures a net profit of +1.65 units should the Stars win this series in the next two games and it assures a net profit of +.90 unit in the case that the Blues win this series which (as I have contended all along) is very possible as these two dynamic teams going a full seven games would surprise no one.

If by chance this series does go back to St. Louis for game seven we have assured profit in pocket while options abound.

*Please note all NHL Playoff results from 2016 forward are available by accessing the “Profitability” tab. I track all singular entries by day, week, month and year. It’s business people.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


2019 Kentucky Derby: Brutha Shue's Views! - 5/3/2019

For UFC Ottawa please access the 'UFC' tab at the top of this webpage           For NHL releases please access the 'Hockey' tab at the top of this webpage.

I want to thank my dear college amigo and professional horse handicapper Brutha Shue for stepping in and providing us all his Kentucky derby insight. Shue’s been writing the Derby for me for years and has made my fellow Profitable Sports Gamers planty of pony profit over the years. Below are Shue’s Kentucky Derby views…

Well, since OMAHA BEACH (4-1) is now a ‘scratch’ for Saturday, AND, as of this writing, HAIKAL (30-1), is currently being treated for a foot abscess and his entry for Saturday is in doubt.  So with these two being unplayable, this opens the door for a handful of others who will have a shot to win the Kentucky Derby.  And yes, I had OB (on top) and Haikal in my wagers for Saturday.  So, in the Kentucky Derby’s of late, or at least for the last 8+ years or so, the KD winner has either been on the lead or at least just off the lead. 

There hasn’t been a deep closer win this race in quite some time.  But there is now, one, who, if he can get rolling, will have a shot at victory – and that’s TACITUS (10-1).  He ran down TAX (20-1) in the same race.  But my top pick for the KD is IMPROBABLE (6-1). Hung in there gamely and was stride for stride with OB coming down the stretch in the Arkansas Derby finishing 2nd.  Improbable, IMO, will be just off the lead, keeping the leaders within a length or two.  And BTW, the Arkansas Derby was run on a “sloppy” track – which is probably how the track at Churchill Downs will be graded on Saturday.  Yes folks, it’ll be raining in Louisville on Saturday 100% guaranteed!  The question is, just how much rain.  Either way, Improbable likes the slop and I have him on top. 

Another one I like, and will certainly be on the lead, is WAR OF WILL (20-1).  Coming from the #1 hole, actually he’ll come from #2 hole because of the OB scratch, will be a tough task.  And BTW, WOW’s first win came at Churchill Downs…on a “sloppy” track.  And in full disclosure, I am bias because WOW won the Lecomte and Risen Star races here at the Fairgrounds – but I think he’s legit horse.  And oh BTW, he has the same daddy as OB – War Front.

 Speaking of the Fairgrounds, the only Derby prep race WOW did not win was the Louisiana Derby (his hind legs buckled 3 jumps out of the gate and was compromised throughout) – which was won by the 21 to 1 shot, BY MY STANDARDS (20-1) – who I also like on Saturday.  BMS stayed just off the lead, reeled in the leaders in the stretch and finished strong.  Although he has not run in a field this talented, I think he has a shot.  And I do like the trainer - Bret Calhoun – a relative unknown.  And now I’m adding in ROADSTER (6-1) to replace my Haskal.  So let’s review:

I have 1 closer, 2 mid pack runners, and 2 on/off the lead horses – yep – that should do it – all fronts covered right?  But it’s horse racing boys – anything can happen – and with the track conditions to be not exactly ideal, who really knows.  But one sure bet for you to do on Saturday - is to have fun and enjoy the day. Here’s the wagers…

$10.00W-P-S#1 War of Will (20-1)$30.00

$10.00W-P-S#3 By My Standards (20-1)$30.00

$10.00W-P-S#5 Improbable (6-1)$30.00

$10.00W-P-S#8 Tacitus (10-1)$30.00

$10.00W-P-S#17 Roadster (6-1)$30.00

($2.00 Exacta Box 5 nags $40.00):

#1 War of Will (20-1) #3 By My Standards (20-1) #5 Improbable (6-1) #8 Tacitus (10-1) #17 Roadster (6-1)

Total Invested $190.00

 

I want to thank Brutha Shue for having the deep seeded passion for the sport of horse racing that he would still take the time to shoot us his thoughts. Many thanks my borhter!

As far as I am concerned, I am eyebrow deep in the pucks so my specific tails of Shues nags above plus one or two more will be posted sometime manana. I will say that I wan’t stray far from the above. Shue’s the real deal.


Stanley Cup Playoffs Rd. II: What's good for the goose..? - 4/28/2019

For all 2019 NHL Playoff releases and detailed results by round please access the "Hockey" tab at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. 

--5-3-19 6:15am PT--

I don't take kindly to dropping our last few releaseds puckheads but I do trust that my process over time performs. It may not be able to perfom at the torrid pace we were on but make no mistake that the goal is to win every dad gummed release made. There's hockey tonight so let's get a morning skate in and check back later.

Will we witness the Isle's earn their way to this second round via the sweep ..be swept? ? 

--4-29-19 6:30am PT--

I'll have a few icy insights later today. This Stars Blues series is going to be one competitive and hard fought competition. If you want an iea of what playoff passion really is all about..tune into this series puckheads. I'll be back later as there is more work to accomplish in this Tourney as we are not yet half way through. 

Tournament results to date: 24-12 +16.39 u

---------

--4-28-19--

How about gaining the Stars +240 for the series after game one puckheads! This is the same tactic I’ve been using for decades when investing in seven game playoff formatted series. Patience and confidence in one’s handicapping are the only prerequisites to this aggressive approach to puck profitability.  While the value obtained (current series price has Stars -105) does not insure a series win, it will provide opportunity/choices as this series grinds ahead.

Today’s noon opening faceoff between the Isle’s and the ‘Canes is a big game for the Isles who have faced zero adversity thus far this season. Meanwhile the friggin ‘Canes are the little engine everyone said can’t. The issue however is no one told the ‘Canes.

This ‘Cane team enters game loose gripped and ripping rubber while the Isle’s left steel trap netminder Lehner alone against the wind last out. Lehner is a top notch talent but he needs continued insulation from his defense and just one or two tallies from his offense to command.

Early action is all flowing to the home team chalk Isle’s in this perceived ‘must win’ scenario though I don’t see this as ‘must win’ for the Isles. What I will state is that there’s real pressure on a team laced with little playoff experience and carrying the burden of favorite, tough spot to say the least.

It’s my view that the Isles must win one of the next two contests to be legitimate contenders in this series BUT... They must prove to me they can take one game from this bunch of jerks first!

‘Canes +140

Campbell semi-final tonight. Tune back later for any angles. Thank You


UFC Sunrise Souza vs. Hermansson: Gator bait - 4/27/2019

For all 2019 NHL Playoff releases and detailed results by round please access the "Hockey" tab at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. 

UFC Sunrise, FL edition where they give Jacare a fight he never really wanted in his back yard with an unwritten ‘promise’ that he’ll fight for the Championship with a victory tonight. This is the sort of strong arm tactic an organization can employ to get a fighter to acquiesce to stringent terms for the fighter in return for a verbal commitment which I regard as basically nothing (any arrangement that is left unwritten and therefore un-executable is not business).

Today the UFC offers us a main event that has had more fighters listed for it than those fighting on the Bellator card tonight!

In all seriousness below is my main event breakdown for this card which was published earlier in the week. Those Tuesday deadlines for main event breakdowns are really forcing me to undertake meticulous early research for these fights which I believe are quite helpful as I strive to improve as a handicapper.

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 4-25-19 Point Spread Weekly—

The UFC makes a return to Florida when it visits Ft. Lauderdale Saturday for Fight Night on ESPN+9. The main event on this card has played like a game of musical chairs with injuries and replacement fighters stepping in on short notice being the overriding theme.

Last week I correctly predicted Alistair Overeem to be a worthy favorite in St. Petersburg and this week I am afraid we have another chalky main event situation. In this case, a grizzled World Class veteran meets a well less equip fighter blind with ambition.

Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza -195 vs. Jack ‘The Joker’ Hermansson +170 (Westgate)

Jacare Souza is a renowned master of BJJ who has supplemented his vast BJJ acumen with Muay Thai, Judo, Submission wrestling and most recently an improved striking game. I consider Souza a ‘tweener’ in that everyone ranked lower than he feels his age (thirty-nine) may be affecting his quickness and skills while those ranked higher than he want little part of such a diverse, dangerous fighting machine.

Souza’s career is stacked with fights against every form of high level world class talented mixed martial artist and while his window is clearly narrowing his drive to compete for a Championship belt is palpable and with a victory here he stands likely to be able to compete for one. Ain’t no way Jacare’ is overlooking ‘the Joker’ here.

Hermansson on the other hand is well less decorated, less versed and less experienced. He prides himself as a ‘ground and pound’ specialist and though he sports a substantial five-inch reach advantage in this fight, he is claiming to want to take this fight against ‘Jacare” (alligator in Portuguese) to the floor. This seems to me to be either a foil or a downright fib for if Hermansson chooses to fight Jacare’ at his strength then we’ll be able to question his fight IQ also.

Hermansson’s level of past competition is shallow. He’s faced fighters who were either past their prime when he fought them or simply lacking high level MMA skills. He steps in for this fight on short notice and though this is a huge opportunity for him, looking impressive against a guy who’s as slow as a glacier in David Branch (Hermansson’s last victim) is a far cry from trying to compete against a fighter with the skill level and experience not to mention singlemindedness of purpose that Jacare’ enters with.

Souza opened -175 and is now -195 which is more than fair considering the above and the fact that he is fighting in Florida where he trains and lives. Later in the week the props and totals will come out but the ‘Makers are not fools folks, we’ll get little extra value on Souza ITD (Inside the Distance) when those props do break.

Its early week but I’ll commit to Souza now but rather than lay the -195 I’ll set him up as leg one of a two-team parlay with the second leg to remain open. That way the expenditure is a simple one-unit wager.

Souza -195 (open ended parlay part 1)

--updated 4-27-19 7:59am PT—

I have little further to comment on in the main event other than to comment on that total of 1.5 Over Even money. If Hermansson is reckless is ends early but my gut tells me he’ll try to make the old cagey warrior work a little. I do like that over but will hold off on making it official at this time.

I feel the Hardy freak show ends as soon as he fights someone with any form of Octagon competence. Smoliakov is in there to help prop up the UFC’s new money maker sorry as that does sound but their plan could backfire. I favor the fighting bum over just a plain old one.

Smoliakov +300 (half)                      Fight starts Rd. II +135 (half)

Oliviera -170 vs. Perry +150

Oliviera is the more technical well versed mixed martial artist. Perry is a brawler who is working on refining his skills though his modus operandi is constant forward pressure behind roundhouses, hooks, and Sunday punches. Oliveira does not really like to be bullied and though he is the favorite let’s not forget that in his last outing he was dominated by Gunnar Nelson and eventually submitted. I look for a dynamic fight of the night type of matchup here.

Perry +150 (half)          Over 1.5 +100 (half)

This Teixeira and Cuteleba fight should be epic. If Glover shows up with any semblance of continuing his career as anything other than stepping stone then he comes out and smothers the Hulk, takes him to the floor and makes this a simple maul on the mat for fifteen minutes. If he tries anything other than that he’ll get touched on the porcelain chin and the lights will go off. O clue what happens here.

Speaking of talking out of both ends of my mouth! I (personally) have Sandhagen positions from +200 down to +150 and I’m tickled that I am ahead of the market on price but I am also fearful of Lineker. He opened -245 in some spots and is now -135. If I did not have the Sandhagen positions, I would be telling everyone today that at -135 Lineker is a sensational value. Jeez. I may buy back a little on JL just to protect myself as this line has swung a bit too much perhaps….

Leans: Esparza and Arlovski

Good Luck to all and enjoy today’s Fighting and Hockey!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

 


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Rd. II - 4/20/2019

For all 2019 NHL Playoff releases and detailed results by round please access the "Hockey" tab at the top of the GambLou.com webpage. 

--4-25-19 3pm PT--

Round I showed us all that correctly predicting series outcomes in the Stanley Cup Tournament is difficult to do. As I review early results, I see unsuccessful series and future positions that I either made early for price or in the Tampa instance just took the bait on a club constructed for the regular season. I’ll react by being a bit more cautious with series wagers this round and play to

Regarding the daily releases we've been on fire as I was able to tap into the tepid home team advantage (25-21) and ride rabid road dogs (underdogs stood 26-20 Rd. 1) to a profitable            21-10 +14.96 result. Now we're on to Round II.

Let’s Skate

Tonight the Jackets travel to Beantown for a series that has B’s favored -145 to Jackets +125. The B’s are favored in tonight’s contest -145 to Jackets +130. The Bruins are right off the seven game Leaf series and while most believe the more rested Jackets (eight days now) will have the edge it is the opposite that I find to be the case more often. The B’s have been skating in furious desperate fashion so showing up tonight in that same mentality and physicality will be second nature to them while the Jackets no matter how hard they tried simply can’t duplicate that which is the ferocity of Playoff hockey. It could take the Jackets a game or two to get their legs in my estimation. Let’s hope the B’s look unstoppable tonight then look at what kind of obtuse series price is offered on the Jackets into game two.

Tonight’s second contest between the Blues and Stars is going to be one outstanding ‘from the goal out’ styled battle royal (Blues -160 vs. Stars +140 in series). I believe not only the two best teams in the playoffs are featured in this matchup but in my judgement the two best remaining netminders in the tournament compete against one another in this series as well.

While each team has their strengths and issues, I view the Stars as more stable between the pipes because of Bishop, as having the sounder defensive structure and special teams besides having a more explosive potential on offense.

I do see the depth of the Blues as a strength and the rook in Net an asset but in the end I feel the faster, quicker more skilled Stars behind Bishop may be able to exact revenge on the Blues for a 2016 seven game playoff series loss and move into the Campbell finals.

I handicap the Blues as only a slight favorite in this series and based on their recent head to head games played just weeks ago there could be a position to argue that this series should be closer to a a pick-em so I must grab the value here and hope to…. see Stars.

Stars +140 series       Stars +135 game 1

I’ll have views on the other two series manana puckheads.

--4-25-19 6:20am PT--

2019 NHL Rd. I releases: 21-10 +14.96u*

Later I'll release updated series and game strategies and positions for  round II. My numbers will be compiled and deciphered later today which provides time to focus forward from what has been one of the more successful Round I's in my recent memory. It's look ahead time today puckheads so off to work I go. I have more to discuss prior to the continuation and hightened passion that is today's round II of the Stanley Cup Tournament. Again, all results may be access by hitting the 'Hockey" tab on this webpage.

--4-23-19 6:40pm PT--

Sharks -110 

revenge is a dish best served cold...

--4-20-19--

Today’s Puck passion will go a long way in setting up the next round of the tournament. As the games get more intense, so too do the stakes which is why this sport is so great to bet. These cats are playing for the fulfillment of their lifelong dreams. I can count on 110% effort from all players at all times. That makes the 'Capping easier.

All my results are posted in both the ‘Hockey’ tab if you scroll down and the ‘Profitability’ tab at the top of this webpage. Understand all Future wagers are graded on the site as losses until they are graded which skews the results a bit.

We’ve been running hot since the playoffs started but this is a what have you done for me lately business so let’s focus on what matters….today’s slate.

The Preds march home in relatively good position. But by the numbers they’re not as sound a ‘from the goal out’ hockey club as the Stars. Rinne’s netminding (thus far) has been solid and the high level of hockey played by their defensive unit has overcome a lacking special teams and a struggling offense.

The Stars meanwhile have the fundamentals and are the more (analytically) sound hockey team though they do lack the depth of experience of the Predators. Dallas can skate this series back home ahead 3-2 but they’ll need to execute their best game of the playoffs to get that done. I see the Stars as the more complete ‘from the goal out’ club, I view them as the more explosive skating team and the more potent offensively team besides. Bishop will need to stand up to steal this game from a most grizzled and veteran bunch but I feel that’s exactly what will occur. As always wait until right before the drop the frozen rubber to insure you get every penny of price puckheads.

Stars +140 rogue road dung

I’ll be back later and share my ice ideas on the two hockey contests later this evening. Enjoy the passion...

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

* All Future wagers accounted for except the 'Canes and Star series wagers that are yet to be determined.