Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Vegas 20 or whatever the hail they are calling it. Main event Rozenstruik vs. Gane appears to be a very defining event for the Heavy’s as the winner projects themselves into the top 5 heavyweights in the organization….at least the way I handicap it.
Undercard fights are rife with live underdogs based on what my research tells me sop I’ve refined those targets down to a select few for your consideration.
Last week was a terrific week but those following me only recently need to understand that the UFC calendar year offers some 44 +/- fight slates. It’s my ambition to attempt to profit a penny or more on each however my judgement on the handicapping take place in December so it is critical for all to remember what a grind this can be.
I’ll say with a degree of confidence that those that belly up and take each position on each card through the year will come out in December banking bottom line profit. I offer no such assurance to any choosing to snipe one card here or one card there.
My wagering success is based on a long-term approach (the whole of the calendar year) and last week’s slate while profitable represents only a slight percentage of what the final result will be. So, in summary, last week means jack squat and all focus has been and is on deriving profit for this fight slate.
Monday I’ll begin the process again so if you are interested in banking over the course of the year…. belly up and ride with me each and every week. I assure you that the results will speak for themselves.
So, this week’s article from Point Spread Weekly is below and following it are the updated wagers I have released through the week as well any additions based on this morning latest information/pricing.
All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00. I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year. Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.
--Posted 2-24-21 Point Spread Weekly—
Saturday’s UFC Vegas 20 will present fight fans twelve competitive match-ups featuring a Light heavyweight co main event and a heavyweight main event. In the main event two highly regarded prospects each young, strong, equip and focused will compete against one another to determine which combatant elevates themselves into the upper tier of a division that is mainly four men deep.
While last week’s UFC production was lacking real PPV appeal it’s my opinion that this card offers match-us that are competitively matched with a few that in my judgement may be mispriced.
Last week Darrick Minner +165 dominated Charles Rosa via unanimous decision which padded ‘Insight the Octagon’ profitability on 2021 releases to 4-3 +1.75 units.
For the next several week’s there will be UFC fight cards to dissect so the time is now to increase our bankroll by any positive increment and prepare for future opportunity.
*Aljamain Sterling was released on these pages’ weeks ago. When I find a future fight offering price advantage that I feel may evaporate over time I’ll jump the match-up and post positions here just as I have with Sterling. For new readers Sterling +120 is an official release.
Cyril Gane -260 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +220 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event
Seventh ranked French prospect Cyril Gane arrives to this main event with superior physique, profuse striking power and substantial (and appropriate) hype. His background lies in Muay Thai striking where he did have seven competitions prior to the start his MMA career. Gane has displayed little wrestling in his past bouts mostly because he’s owned superior striking ability over his opponents. I expect that could change in this fight.
Both of these men are gifted Muay Thai, kickboxing talents. Though we’ve not seen him grapple prior, I believe it possible Gane displays some clinching/grappling/wrestling against Rozenstuik as he’s the more well-rounded fighter and Rozenstruik can barely spell wrestling let alone execute its basic functions.
Gane, in his four UFC fights has evolved in each outing. He’s beaten sturdy durable heavyweights in Raphael Pessoa and Junior Dos Santos as well he decisioned another promising heavyweight prospect Tanner Boser in a fight where both men impressed.
What remains to be discovered about Gane is how well he fares on the mat, how he may handle the pressure of being in a main event type spotlight and finally how he handles a most dangerous explosive power striker much like himself in Rozenstruik. Gane’s been a full three rounds only once in his short but impressive professional career.
One thing to note is that outside of his bout with Boser, Gane’s not really received striking damage so it will be interesting to see if his opponent can land leg/arm strikes to test the monster’s mettle.
Rozenstruik arrives the third ranked heavyweight on the roster. He’ll be the slightly smaller man with less reach than Gane. What Rozenstruik may lack in physical stature/attributes he makes up for in fight experience. Rozenstruik compiled a 76 win (64 KO/TKO's), 8 losses, 1 draw record over eight years prior to arriving in to the UFC. He’s clearly the more seasoned experience striker in this bout.
Since becoming a professional mixed martial artist Rozenstruik’s fought impressively and beaten heavyweight foes that are far superior in fighting skills than anyone Gane has faced to this point. While many of Rozenstruik’s bouts have been under three rounds in duration it’s important to understand that he does have main event experience.
In his fight against Alistair Overeem, he was able to survive being ‘pieced up’ for most of the fight by Overeem only to draw deep inside and KO the grizzled veteran with four second remaining in the fifth round.
Besides experience Rozenstruik will have advantages in speed, quickness and explosion while Gane’s strengths revolve around aggressively stalking opponents and engaging in power fighting. Gane has had great success thus far by walking opponents down and clubbing them into unconsciousness.
Gane opened -300 for this bout which seems a bit expensive when scrutinizing his body of work, opponents faced and most importantly the capability of this opponent Rozenstruik. So, I must agree with the slight move in money to Rozenstruik.
Will Gane choose to fight the more experienced, refined striking Rozenstruik on the feet which is both men’s forte’ or will he choose by need or necessity to take this fight to the floor where I believe Rozenstruik is at his most vulnerable?
This I believe is the key to the fight for as this bout wears on it’s Rozenstruik whom I believe will hold advantage as Gane is a muscular specimen and could easily tire both physically and mentally as this battle rages on.
Total for this fight: 1.5 Over -190
Pass pending weigh-ins
Ronnie Lawrence -165 vs. Vince Cachero +145 Bantamweight (135lbs)
Last week we uncovered a live underdog with Derrick Minner’s outstanding unanimous decision performance. This week I hope to offer another ‘mangy mutt’ who for several reasons will arrive to the octagon Saturday night with focus, determination, preparedness and price advantage.
Ronnie Lawrence makes his UFC debut in this bout. He’s recently aligned with Sanford MMA in Florida which clearly displays the seriousness of his intentions.
In this bout height, reach and age all favor Lawrence but a closer look into his past fights forces me to believe that he’s become more prepared for this fight by switching camps than by the experience of his past bouts as his body of competition is uninspiring.
Across the octagon from Lawrence will stand Vince Cachero who lost his UFC debut to Jamaal Emmers in a completely one-sided affair. Emmers who fought last week is a physical monster who competes in the Featherweight division. Cachero, a true Bantamweight took the bout on two days’ notice and up a weight class in order to gain access into the UFC.
What we learned from Cachero’s performance is that he is fearless, a gifted fighter and as tough as a three-dollar steak. This fight offers Cachero the opportunity for a full training camp against an opponent in his weight class who has not competed against the likes of fighter Cachero has.
Cachero’s recently made the move to Factory X which is a camp similar to Sanford in that the fighters there are talented and superbly trained. These two men have taken matters into their own hands in order to arrive in the octagon and perform at their absolute best.
Cachero, though the shorter man giving away 2” of reach has faced a far superior level of competition. He’s earned this opportunity by showing the UFC that he’s ready, willing and able to step in the octagon at any time for them. Further, he draws a debuting athlete who is nowhere near the talent that Cachero just faced in Emmers.
Lawrence opened -180 in this bout and I believe that may be more based on the beatdown Cachero took against Emmers than anything Lawrence has earned in order to be called the favorite.
A light stream of play has knocked Cachero’s price down from +160 at openers to the current +145 which is enough for me to move immediately.
Total for this fight is: 2.5 over -190
Alex Caceres -220 vs. Kevin Croom +190 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Both of these men are gifted fighters, both are also quite experienced in fact Croom actually has more professional fights than does Caceres which is unusual for Caceres has been in the UFC since 2011 competing in twenty-four bouts.
Caceres recently moved to Florida and his results since that move have been impressive. Caceres is a long fighter who uses fluid movement and evasive tactics to frustrate opponents which sets up his outstanding counter striking. If there’s on critique of Caceres is that he’s now thirty-two and is not as flashy, quick and reflexive as he was when he was younger.
Caceres’ relies on athleticism and natural movement to serve as his primary source of defense. Unfortunately for him and all fighters with a decade of experience behind them, those traits have waned and they have not been replaced by any form of structural, tight defense.
Croom is an experienced junk yard dog who looked impressive in submitting Roosevelt Roberts in his last bout. Croom does not possess the movement or counterstriking abilities of his opponent has but he’s gritty, dirty and wants to fight in close quarters then eventually force the fight to the floor where his skills are most evident.
This clash of styles will be fascinating to witness for if Croom is unable to work on the inside against Caceres he’ll get sliced and diced. That said, if this fight gets ugly and is fought in close quarters and gets to the ground it will be Croom who will hold advantage.
There’s been little movement in this price so I’ll hold off on any release until post weigh-ins.
Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading.
--Updated 2/27/21 8:24am PT—
Gane -250 vs. Rozenstruik +210
The reason I hesitate to make any real opinion on this fight is based on limited data on Gane. It’s my opinion that Rozenstruik, while well-more experienced is in position to succeed provided he gets help from Gane in the form of a low IQ approach which means that if Gane chooses to stand and kickbox with Rosenstruik at Rozenstruik’s forte’ he plays one dangerous game.
Gane receives great accolades if he did dominate Rozenstruik at his own game but risky decision making does not a contender make. It’s my belief that Gane takes Rozenstruik to the floor early in this bout then mops the octagon canvas with him.
If we continue to witness compression on Gane’s price (he opened -300) there’s a possibility I could jump in but for right now this fight is a Due Diligence bout which means I plan on watching, learning and using this fight data for future reference on each combatant.
Rivera -145 vs. Munhoz +125
Rematch. Rivera won the first bout.
In UFC rematches (since UFC 28), The fighter who won the first bout is 65-40 with 2 draws and 1 No Contest in the second bout*.
I handicap this fight as a dead pick-em. Based on each man’s present state it is Munhoz whom I regard as the well hungrier fighter, the fighter with the sturdier chin as well the fighter with more power. These cats are going to throw down and as I handicap this bout that favors Munhoz despite his willingness to take one in order to give one.
Bueno Silva -135 vs. De La Rosa +115
This is a foundational fight for De La Rosa’s future in the UFC. Montana must manipulate space and use her length/size to keep the pressing Brazilian grappler on the outside where De La Rosa can pepper Bueno Silva with combinations and make her pay for trying to gain access inside the pocket. Released earlier this week +125.
De La Rosa +115
Caceres -185 vs. Croom +165
Speaking of space inside the octagon, this fight is all about space for if Caceres can keep the aggressive ‘hard hitting hillbilly’ on the outside he’ll accumulate points while frustrating the grappler.
Once clasping/grappling/wrestling-based fighters find difficulty gaining the inside their tendency is often to get reckless in attempting to force their way there which plays directly into Caceres strength.
In this instance I feel that Croom’s size and his unrelenting aggression prepare him for success here as Croom’s striking is more than developed than is Caceres ground ability (my opinion). I also regard Caceres as a worthy underdog in almost any spot but he’s a heavy, heavy chalk.
Last note: Croom has a previous win over Darrick Minner who won a fight for us last week priced +165. They now train together with other notable fighters at Glory MMA which is a gym finally gaining recognition. Croom’s a little crazy which suits me just fine.
Lawrence -165 vs. Cachero +145
Little to add to what is outlined above. In a tight, close, competitive fight I like
Hill -340 vs. Yoder +310
Rematch. Hill won the first bout.
Of all the fights on this card this is the one that stands out to me as being the most obtusely mispriced.
Hill’s the stronger fighter, the more aggressive fighter but also the much slighter fighter physically. I feel Yoder’s size, her hunger and her grappling acumen will provide her every opportunity to make this a very tight contest. Hill’s earned the right to be the chalk in this bout but I just can’t see her priced higher than -175 or so. Leaving fights to the judges can be risky business and that’s exactly what I am counting on here.
Yoder +310 .5u
* @NumbersMMA via Twitter
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