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Welcome fight Enthusiasts to an all sports Saturday September 19th 2020 where we have NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAA football, PGA, UFC etc. to make investments upon
Usually in mid-September the UFC fight cards compete against the late college football slate for the bail out bets that hit come 5pm PT Saturday night.
This week the latest kick for a College football game is 6pm PT which means that outside of watching paint dry (regular season hardball) the UFC is the only action available Saturday night to serve as the ‘bail-out’ for gamblers chasing their tails from earlier Saturday.
This week’s slate coupled with the next few from ‘Fight Island’ take this in mind fight fans and I look for the UFC to continue to grow and make advantage of 2020 when most of the other major sports have to write it off.
As is customary I’ll lead with my Wednesday article form PSW followed by updated comments and final releases.
All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00. I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year. Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.
--originally published 9-16-20 ‘Point Spread Weekly’—
It seems like weekly UFC fight slates have joined death and taxes as life’s certainty’s!
This week the APEX in Las Vegas hosts a final domestic Fight Night before the organization ships to Abu Dhabi to resume the ‘Fight Island’ productions. At the APEX fighters compete in a smaller 25’ Octagon which ‘enhances’ confrontation in all forms. I mention this because cage size does factor in fights.
For this week’s APEX fights I’ll be mostly focused bouts held at welterweight (170lbs.) and heavier where larger fighters will have well less room to evade confrontation.
As an aside, next week’s main event ‘from ‘Fight Island’ which uses the larger 30’ cage is the highly anticipated fight between Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya from New Zealand and the number one challenger, Brazil‘s Paulo Costa. To say Adesanya’s chances are greatly enhanced based on that extra real estate he’ll enjoy based on the 30‘cage is an understatement. Cage size among other factors I’ll share next week led me to take Adesanya -135 at opening bell. Adesanya is currently -155 to Costa +135.
As far as this week’s card, five of the top six bouts on the slate are fighters that are experienced, refined in their skills and highly regarded within their divisions. In each case these combatants are facing equally aspiring, ambitions opponents. The main event fights will be compelling.
Colby Covington -345 vs. Tyron Woodley +285 Welterweight main event
Fifth ranked Woodley is now thirty-eight and has looked every bit his age in his last two bouts, albeit both losses were against the two top ranked fighters in the division today. Woodley has always been somewhat premeditated in his manner choosing to supplement a once devastating wrestling game with profuse punching power. That was then however because now Woodley struggles to ‘get off’ in fights as well he’s been unwilling to expend the precious cardio required to wrestle for control in his fight. As a result, his performances appear lack luster because Woodley is a relatively inactive striker who has been unable to fire.
Now Woodley’s been training with old friend and Covington hater Jorge Masvidal for this fight and he’s talking like he’s discovered all the answers but my belief is that this main event is his one last payday before he becomes a simple stepping stone for the division’s upwardly elite.
Second ranked welterweight contender Covington the fighter is a top three standout in the Welterweight division along with Champion Usman and number one contender Gilbert Burns. Covington employed a bombastic and constantly vulgar verbal attack on all of humanity in propelling himself to the top of the division but in this fight, he has been interestingly absent from the mic. A positive tell which I believe displays focus.
Covington has a world class wrestling pedigree which alone makes him someone to contend with. Now add to his wrestling prowess a rapidly improving and effective striking game laced with unrelenting forward pressure and the willingness to compete in frenetic fashion for twenty-five minutes and you have a certain Welterweight contender.
In this fight Woodley has one chance and that is to catch Covington with the one asset that has not betrayed the old pugilist, his power. Woodley’s guile, experience and pride must force him to come out and immediately take the fight to Covington which is risky because it will leave him wilting in the later rounds but it is the path he must take if he is to win Saturday.
Covington’s plan is the same as in all his fights, utilize unrelenting forward pressure coupled with high volume precision striking to work his way inside then wrangle opponents against the fence then onto the floor. His ability to never tire, his youth, speed and more complete fight arsenal all combine to make Woodley look as poorly as he has in his previous two fights.
Woodley’s last two fights have both gone five rounds against the division’s top two ranked fighters, rather than believe that prepares him to take this fight deep I believe his abilities are washed and Covington will get the old man out before the end of the fifth round most likely via submission.
I regard Covington as a true -350 in this bout.
Covington (ITD) Inside the Distance +275 .5u
Niko Price -155 vs. Donald Cerrone +135 Welterweight co main event
How about fourteenth ranked Lightweight Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone? He’s a fourteen-year professional mixed martial artist who holds a 36-15 record. Cerrone has fought the who’s who in two divisions of the UFC but he has lost his last four fights two in each the lightweight division and Welterweight.
Fighters that have bested Cerrone in those recent fights are elite world class fighters named Ferguson, Gaethje and McGregor to which there is no shame. His last loss against Anthony Pettis is the bout where Cerrone ‘s reaction time, speed and skill really seemed to have betrayed him. It’s possible that Cerrone’s highly active lifestyle outside the octagon, which is as dangerous as his life in it may have caught up to the perennial gamer.
Cerrone’s opponent Saturday is one Niko Price who is six years younger than Cerrone. He’ll hold reach advantages over the Cowboy and he’s every bit as crazy as Cerrone which makes this fight compelling. Where the Cowboy is cool and collected in approaching opponents, Price is wild and unorthodox.
Storming forward and bullying the Cowboy with a bludgeoning body attack has always been the blueprint on how to beat Cerrone. Price has all the tools to make that his plan of attack going into the fight. However, once Price gets into a firefight his extreme/wild/unpredictable nature can often get him into trouble against fighters able to remain even headed as they can take advantage of the many openings Price offers opponents in every fight. Can cowboy match the early pressure of Price or will he wilt underneath it?
I’m not sure Cerrone can make it through this one.
Khamzat Chimaev -480 vs. Gerald Meerschardt +370
You may recall Chimaev from earlier ‘fight Island’ productions. He came into his debut fight and submitted a journeyman named John Phillips at 185lbs.
In his next bout two weeks later at 170lbs. he fought a lightweight (155lbs.) moving up in weight AND taking the bout on just days’ notice, Chimaev destroyed the undersized Rhys McKee in one round and the hype was hatched!
Now Chimaev and his undefeated eight fight professional career land in Vegas ready to fight a legitimate Middleweight fighter in Gerald Meerschardt who has a 31-13 professional record. Meerschardt is also a natural Middleweight fighter where Chimaev has competed between the two divisions.
Inexperienced but ultra-talented fighters getting tossed into the fire too quickly is something we’re seen prior in the UFC and the next mark may be named Khamzat Chimaev
This is a PhD. in MMA fight if I have ever seen one. Not only is Chimaev stepping well up in class of opponent, he’s fighting a man who has competed in the UFC for years against other legitimate UFC middleweights. Further, where Chimaev is most skilled is where the larger more experienced Meerschardt is also most apt.
Contributing to Meerschardt focus for this fight is the fact that Chimaev has already accepted a fight against Demain Maia on ‘Fight Island’ in a couple of weeks. So, suffice it to say that Meerschardt is aiming to spoil the party for the young Swede on Saturday.
Chimaev lined as a favorite of up to -200 seems reasonable but to make him -480 in this fight is not correctly assessing his opponent Gerald Meerschardt.
Meerschardt +370 .5u
Johnny Walker -130 vs. Ryan Spann +110 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)
Not only is this the most exciting fight of this card, it may be the most exciting fight of the quarter. These two men are twenty-nine years old and are both PLAYERS in the LHW division.
Eleventh ranked Walker is a Brazilian striker who arrived on the scene with flash and flair. After a couple of beat downs however at the hands of more experienced, refined fighters Walker went back into the gym to improve his fighting by complimenting it with wrestling/grappling which does not come overnight.
Walker, a brown belt in BJJ is primarily a striker, He’s an overly explosive powerful one at that. When Walker can keep opponents at distance and on the end of his spinning backfists and lethal leg strikes he is hard to handle.
Recent opponents who have solved Walker have discovered that taking the fight straight to him by pressuring him backwards befuddles him and impedes his ability to be offensive, his main weapon.
Ryan Spann is a mixed martial artist fighting out of team Fortis in Texas. The simplest way for me to describe Spann is to say that he is a pure ‘Texas badass’, tough, unrelenting with his striking pressure and powerful.
Walker has been in with slightly better opposition than has Spann but Spann is ill intentioned to his core and his deep seeded aggression makes him dangerous no matter who he competes with. Spann’s attacks are initiated by straight pressuring opponents then engaging in a kicking and striking war.
In this fight Spann will have to manage Walker’s athleticism and deft movement before he can earn his way inside to begin chopping the athletic Walker down with power strikes. Spann’s ability to work his way to inside position provides the intrigue for this fight.
Walker will need to utilize his athleticism to maintain distance in order to strike effectively and remain outside of Spann’s slugging. Spann will work to close distance and initiate the throw down on Walker which over time will kill his legs then provide Spann the opportunity to destroy.
The APEX center 25’ cage absolutely comes into play here. Best Bet
Last week we realized 2-0 with one release (Schnell) cancelled due to Covid. One of the wins was Ed Herman +220 who really should not have wont the fight. I mention this only because there have been a handful of bouts we have been on the wrong end of, either by opponents missing weight or poor judging and my response has been to record the results and move ahead. We get one back in Herman +220 and I won’t for a minute apologize…I’ll record results and move forward.
Insight the octagon 2020: 29-16 +18.1u
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.
--updated 9-19-20 7:35am PT--
Covington -330 vs. Woodley +265
I believe Covington’s quiet throughout the leadup to this fight is the biggest tell. He’s ready for WAR. Woodley’s routine leading up to this fight is perplexing to me and I honestly feel he is reaching deep to try to find motivation to come out pressing like Marvin Hagler did against Tommy Hearns in their 1985 epic fight as I see that as his only path to victory.
For those having trouble finding Covington ITD +330 now I urge you to consider the “Fight does not go Distance” Pro which pays +150
In fact, I like that wager though it is more conservative because it gives Tryon the opportunity to land that lucky Sunday shot.
Fight does not go Distance +150
Price -140 vs. Cerrone +120
I believe Cerrone is washed and as long as Price keeps his head (-295 against) I believe he can bully the ‘poke.
Chimaev -460 vs. Meerschardt +370
Wait as long as you can to get Meerschardt at as high a price as possible. That’s .5-unit wager and it is a longshot…. this Chimaev is talented but not going to overwhelm Meerschardt who is slower and more deliberate as well quite more experienced, larger and focused because he feels disrespected.
Over 1.5 +110 1u
Walker -145 vs. Spann +125
This could be the best fight of the fall. Walker is faster, quicker, flashier and has trouble with cardio and against aggressive pressing fighters. Spann is deliberate, powerful, willing and also has trouble late in fights. Each man has struggled with proper conditioning for fights…. let’s see which one was more serious leading up to this one because cardio may make the difference here.
Newsome -125 vs. Costa +110
This price is coming our way but use patience as the parlay playing pukes will be bombing Costa believing he finishes the shorter stockier Newsome. While this is possible, I believe the more likely outcome will be Newsome weathering an early frantic storm before turning the fight around in the second and third rounds.
patience as it may keep dropping
Ewell -225 vs. Rivera +190
A lengthy lefty in Ewell faces a sawed-off southpaw in Rivera. When two Southee’s collide, anything can happen from a boring snore fest to a bar room brawl. In this case I believe Rivera has the ability to earn his way inside and batter Ewell’s body. Ewell’s length and athleticism will factor here and it will be Rivera’s ability to cut the cage that will be an important factor for his chances tonight. Ewell opened a fair -170 for this bout and has been bet to current. I’ll be patient here attempting to gain
Rivera +190 or better.
Good luck to all and Thank You for reading
Profitable Sports Gaming