Gamblou - UFC Fight Island Korean Zombie vs. Ortega: Grappling on the gulf

UFC Fight Island Korean Zombie vs. Ortega: Grappling on the gulf - 10/17/2020

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC Ortega vs. Korean Zombie from ‘Fight Island’ Abu Dhabi where we’ll witness another internationally riddled fight card complete with fighters with every form and combination of fighting acumen. These athlete’s will perform both to enhance their careers as well enhance our bankrolls provided, we take a measured selective approach to this and every fight card.

Next week is the much-anticipated UFC 254 Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje a fight card I have already released a position on. Check here and @Twitter to stay abreast of any of my future UFC releases.

I’ll submit my article from this week’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ followed by updated comments and final releases. Enjoy October fight fans!

Let’s Fight

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00. I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year. Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.

--originally published 10-14-20 ‘Point Spread Weekly’—

The UFC vacation on ‘Fight Island’ continues this Saturday on ESPN+ as they present fight fans, ‘Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie’ which is a terrific clash of top five talent in the highly competitive Featherweight division. This card features fighters from ten varying Countries competing in twelve bouts.

Chan Sung Jung “The Korean Zombie” -170 vs. Brian Ortega +150 Featherweight (145lbs.) Main event

Many fans of the UFC are aware of Brian Ortega especially after his devastating finish of Frankie Edgar in March in 2018. In December of 2018 Ortega faced Max Holloway for the Featherweight championship in a fight that exposed Ortega’s tremendous toughness as well his substandard strike defense.

Ortega came from humble beginnings and has scratched his way from nothing to being the fourth ranked fighter in this division. As I assess his fight arsenal however, I can’t help but feel that he has been somewhat over estimated based on that highlight KO of Edgar as well some of the peripheral activities he’s been involved with these last several months.

Ortega’s forte’s in BJJ and he’s a savant at its application but all fights begin on the feet so the Ortega plan of action calls for taking this bout to the mat. To execute that plan he’ll have to overcome the substantial time away from the octagon he’s incurred as well his more than capable opponent.

Ortega’s offensive striking is functional but not explosive, precise or fluid in movement. His defense against capable strikers is his biggest area of concern as was highlighted in that fight against Holloway now nearly two years ago.

South Korean Jung (‘the Zombie’) the second ranked featherweight contender is similar to many of the natural born combat specialists from Russia who are bred and assembled to become masters at hand to hand combat. He’s decorated in Judo, Hapkido, BJJ and Taekwondo.

Truthfully ‘The Zombie’ is a bit of a misnomer as Jung is a mature, centered level-headed individual as opposed to the blood thirsty image his nickname infers. He interrupted his career for two years in 2014 to serve a full term in Korea’s military which displayed his maturity and selflessness. This is a solid young man outside of the cage and a bred destroyer inside of it.

Jung’s primarily a stand-up fighter who practices aggressive forward striking but at times he can be wild with that attack which can expose him to damage from capable counter striking opponents, something Ortega is NOT.

The intrigue for this bout is how Ortega is going to manage the much more complete fighter in Jung. Jung will be able to compete with Ortega on the floor but will strive to utilize his 77% effective take down defense to prevent the fight from getting there.

The Zombie must manage space against Ortega and though he’s not the taller fighter he’ll own a three-inch reach advantage which will allow him to target strikes/kicks on an opponent who allows an exorbitant 7.3 significant strikes against per minute.

The Zombie opened -220 for this bout which is a fair opening number. I believe it quite probable that Ortega’s movie star looks, his Modelo beer commercials and the exposure he received from working with Hallie Berry just after his Edgar domination have the market reacting favorably to Ortega.

Jung ITD (Inside the Distance) which is priced +110 is the recommendation.

Jung -170 as leg one of 2 team parlay can be used for those who can’t obtain the ‘ITD’.

The total is lined: 2.5 Under -120

Ciyrl Gane -540 vs. Ante Delija +440 Heavyweight 265lbs.

This fight has been postponed

Jessica Andrade -145 vs. Kaitlin Chookagain +125 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.)

Andrade, twenty-nine, is the former Strawweight champion who is moving up in weight for this bout. Andrade was properly sized at Strawweight so I find it a bit of a tell that she is once again switching divisions this late into her career. As an aside, I suspected Marlon Moraes switching camps this late into his career was a negative tell also.

Since 2017 and her defeat to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Andrade has been on a tear facing the absolute best of the Strawweight (115lbs) division. She won the title in 2018 in the fight where she planted Rose Namajunas on her head but lost her title in just as devastating a manner in her next bout.

Andrade is a bulldog who comes at opponents with unrelenting pressure and non-stop aggression but that form of fighting has a shelf life and Andrade going from 115 pounds with that style to 125 pounds is a questionable move as I handicap. Maintaining her style of fighting up a division does not add up positively for Andrade especially at this stage of her career and understanding that this is the third time she’s changed divisions.

Kaitlin Chookagain is a legitimate Bantamweight fighter (135lbs.) fighting at Flyweight (125lbs). Chookagain’s size advantage will be prevalent in this bout and provided she can utilize her deft footwork and maintain striking space/distance from the incoming Brazilian brawler she’ll be in position to pick and peck Andrade apart as Andrade works to try to earn inside position.

Chookagain, primarily a decision fighter, will have seven inches of height and six inches if arm/leg reach over Andrade in this bout making it mandatory that Andrade clasp, hug and grope Chookagain from the opening bell in order to employ her offense and negate the reach and snap of Chookagain’s strikes.

Andrade opened -125 for this bout and I honestly believe it’s Chookagain that should be the slight chalk.

Chookagain +125

Total is lined: 2.5 Over -230

Jonathan Martinez -120 vs. Thomas Almeida +100 Bantamweight 135lbs.

Almeida won twenty straight fights in impressive fashion on his way to being destroyed by Cody Garbrandt in 2016. Since 2017 Almeida has only fought twice, both losses and has not been in the octagon since January of 2018 when he was head kicked-out by Rob Font.

Almeida up to the Garbrandt fight was a buzzsaw with a belief of invincibility. The fighter we’ll see after almost two full years out of the cage is anyone’s guess but activity is a better gauge for fighters than inactivity under almost every instance. That said, Almeida did have to overcome an eye injury to get here and he’s been in camp with one of the most complete fighters in the UFC Charles Oliveira.

I think it probable that Almeida puts on a strong performance Saturday despite the time off.

Jonathan Martinez does not have the experience of Almeida and his best opponent would be overwhelmed by the Thomas Almeida of 2014-2015 besides most of the opponents Almeida has beaten. However, Martinez has fought five times since 2018 while Almeida has NOT fought since 2018. I believe this is what is affecting the market price.

Can Almeida enter this fight poised to return to his peak performances from years ago?

Can Martinez overcome his lack of elite competition and overall fight experience to earn a victory over a top name performer?

These are the pertinent questions as these two enter the cage.

Almeida opened the favorite in this fight -145 and has been bet to even money.

Almeida at +100 or better pending weigh-ins!

Martinez missed weight last fight in a bout and I suspect it was purposely…. Let’s see what happens Friday morning.

Total is lined: 2.5 Under -125

--updated 10-17-20 7:40am PT—

Zombie -190 vs. Ortega +165

Ortega is walking into one hell of a whuppin tonight. The Zombie has been professional and tight lipped all camp but inside this born and bred fighting machine is focused on one thing and one thing only…. The demolition of T-City.

Zombie ITD +110

Zombie -170 leg one 2 team parlay… second leg to be determined at a later date.

Andrade -155 vs. Chookagain +135

A little growth on Chookagain value is fine in fact be patient and get every nickel you can. This should be an epic clash of styles. I believe Chookagain can play matador and eventually decision the incoming slugger.

Chookagain +135

patience as it may continue to rise...

Almeida -135 vs. Martinez +115

It may have been wishfull thinking that we could have Almeida in this match-up at a dog price. I'll wait for a potential late run on Martinez but Almeida is a go only +100 or better.

Crute -305 vs. Bukauskas +260

Let’s trust the 6’3” Lithuanian Bukauskas can keep Crute from crowding him and clinching. Distance is Gudauskas’s best friend.

Bukauskas +280 (half)

Released yesterday VSiN ‘Rush Hour’ with Danny Burke

Gillian Robertson -200 vs. Poliana Bothelo +175

This is place for those readers who are unable to execute an open leg parlay. Robertson goes to Zombie in your case. I’ll grade my wager on the open Zombie leg only FYI.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC Sandhagen vs. Moraes: Island Strife - 10/10/2020

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to another UFC ‘Fight Island’ production. This week the two Bantamweight contenders vying for hierarchy behind the number one ranked and clear looming threat to the title Aljamain Sterling.

For whatever reason the UFC bullies Sterling in their own passive way and has done so for some time. He absolutely should be named as the next challenger to current titleholder Petr Yan no matter what happens in this fight or how!

As always, I’ll post my article from earlier in the week via ‘Point Spread Weekly’ followed by updated comments for tonight’s bouts.

Let’s Fight

--originally published 10-7-20 ‘Point Spread Weekly’—

This week the main event from UFC’s ‘Fight Island’ remains in a Bantamweight bout but it’s in the ultra-competitive men’s division championed by Russian Petr Yan. Now that we’re abroad again, the flavor of these fights turns international, the match-ups become more diverse in fighting specialty and as we saw from the first set of cards from ‘Fight Island’, future stars can be made in fifteen minutes of fight time or less (see Chimaev and Lazzez).

This fight card will have thirteen scheduled fights featuring fighters from fourteen different countries.

Cory Sandhagen -128 vs. Marlon Moraes +108 Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event

Moraes is the number one ranked bantamweight contender though he is not a top four combatant in this division to my handicapping. A black belt in Muay Thai and BJJ, Moraes compliments his well-rounded fighting arsenal with quickness, explosion and precision striking. Devastating are the results of Moraes strikes and spinning kicks especially early in fights.

Moraes has fought the top of the division and his results against ranked fighters have produced rather consistent results. He is highly effective early in bouts as opponents find it difficult to withstand his aggressive offensive onslaught but later in fights, he fades badly.

The key to overcoming Moraes is to withstand that early barrage and force him to fight a full three rounds and in Saturday’s case it’s going to be five rounds. In Moraes previous five round bout he was painting Henry Cejudo’s fence early in the bout until he ran out of steam. Cejudo finished him late in the third round.

As Moraes expends energy on his diverse striking attack his cardio tends to fade and unfortunately so does his fight IQ. Moraes is going to have to prove he can effectively manage twenty-five minutes of high pace championship fighting before I begin to buy into him as a legitimate bantamweight contender. His switch to ATT in Florida further proves to me that at thirty-two years of age Moraes is searching which and searching at this stage of his career is a red flag.

Sandhagen enters this fight off adversity himself for he suffered a KO beatdown at the hands of Aljamain Sterling in his last fight. It should be noted that Sterling was flash KO’d by Moraes in a fight they had a few years back which is the only reason Moraes is rated one notch above Sterling in the rankings.

Sandhagen is the fighter with some physical advantages for he’ll be the younger man by four years, the taller man by five inches and he’ll have three-inch reach advantages with arms/legs. Sandhagen’s background is kickboxing based as well he has a brown belt in BJJ. Training at team Elevation in Colorado is a premium for Sandhagen as it will allow him to overcome to some degree his disadvantage in professional fight experience.

Sandhagen is a cerebral fighter as he utilizes his size/length to maintain spacing which allows him to levy punishment at distance where he most effective. Sandhagen has power but his best work is accomplished via accumulation of strikes and kicks. Defensively, Sandhagen will be tested by Moraes EARLY as Moraes works to earn his way inside the pocket to perform the most destruction.

How successful is Moraes pressing for inside presence? Can Sandhagen utilize fluid movement and counter striking to batter the incoming Moraes?

Sandhagen’s level headedness, youth, counter striking and size will allow him to overcome the frantic first round or two from Moraes then eventually swing the fight into his favor as we enter the championship rounds

Sandhagen -140

We’ll utilize Sandhagen as the second leg of the open parlay working with Adesanya -170

Adesanya -170/Sandhagen-140 +172

Total in this bout is 3.5 Under -130

Edson Barboza -265 vs. Makwan Amerkhani +225 Featherweight (145 pounds) co main event

Barboza if we recall moved down from Lightweight to fight at Featherweight against Dan Ige this past May. While there were doubts about Barboza’s ability to be effective at that weight, his result spoke for itself. Barboza looked fantastic and though he did not receive the decision he probably should have earned, he quelled thoughts that he would be unable to make the 145-pound limit.

Barboza at thirty-four still has championship mettle and he holds vast advantages over his opponent in experience, level of competition faced, height and reach. Highly decorated in BJJ, Muay Thai and Taekwondo, Barboza, provided he makes weight for this fight stands in a most advantageous situation.

Amerkhani takes this bout on short notice and while the MMA community was abuzz about Barboza’s originally announced opponent, the notion that Amerkhani can give Barboza any real challenge seems remote.

Amerkhani is a Finish Greco Roman wrestler/grappler. He’ll not want to engage with Barboza standing as he’ll be outclassed fighting on the feet. Therefore, I anticipate Amirkhani’s plan of attack will be to immediately try to work his way inside and grind the larger Barboza down to the mat for a wrestling brawl.

The issue with that form of attack is that it takes heart, guts and grit and I am not certain I give Amerkhani credit for those traits. We’ll have to watch and determine if Amerkhani can prove he belongs in the top tier of the Featherweight division against a fighter in Barboza who sports championship pedigree in two divisions.

Barboza opened -195

Total in this bout is 2.5 Under -130

Lean Under

Nothing may happen in this fight until Barboza makes the weight. Because he made weight once does not insure he does this time a half a world away in Abu Dhabi.

Ben Rothwell -185 vs. Marcin Tybura +160 Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Rothwell, thirty-eight is the more complete fighter with experience and level of competition advantages. He’s about the same size as his Polish opponent and while their skills may line up as relatively equal on the feet, it’s on the mat where Rothwell will hold even more advantage. The question is whether he’ll try to tax himself by trying to take his opponent there.

Tybura is a black belt in BJJ but utilizes his striking more in fights. 2-2 since 2019, Tybura’s fought only the divisions lower level talent and Rothwell is a step up in class for him even though he’s almost five years the younger fighter. I see Rothwell walking down Tybura, pressing the Pole backwards and forcing him to fight from bell to bell. Rothwell thrives in ugly groping sloppy brawls.

Total in this bout is 2.5 Over -150

Tom Breese -260 vs. Kb Bhullar +220 Middleweight (185 pounds)

(This is a fight I broke down for last week’s card without realizing it was on this week’s slate.)

Breese sports an 11-2 record over the course of a ten-year career which tells the difficult story of this English mixed martial artist who has been so inactive over the course of a decade. Breese, 6’3” is a big man for the division with a sculpted physique. A black belt in BJJ Breese can stand and bang with the best fighters in the world.

When Breese is on his game, he is a true contender as I handicap this division but he has one glaring issue and it’s sensitive to discuss. Breese in the past has struggled mentally/emotionally and has had more than one fight cancelled because of it.

As a fight handicapper I have stated that I work tirelessly to uncover fighters who for whatever reason/reasons are prepared to offer their absolute best come fight night. With Tom Breese, I can never COUNT on getting that kind of effort which makes taking a position on him dangerous.

Kb Bhullar is a fighter who has been striving, training and grinding to make it to the UFC since he began fighting professionally in 2012. Bhullar does not have the chiseled body nor does he have the level of experience of Breese but one thing bettors may count on with this debuting Canadian fighter is that he’s coming to make a name for himself.

If Breese is at his best Bhullar will have a difficult time getting his hand raised but if Breese is in any way distracted then that will leave the door open for Bhullar to bust up the Brit and get his hand raised.

The extra week provides Bhullar with more time to prepare and Breese more time to think….

This bout opened Breese -185 prior to last weeks move to this week. My approach here is to monitor this bout as we move later into the week but I’ll attack the Bhullar line if I see it slip down. Otherwise patience is advised until weigh-ins.

The total on this bout is Over 2.5 -140

Bhullar +220

(or better, pending weigh-ins)

Last week Insight the Octagon releases split on the lady bantamweights winning a unit on Germain de Randomie -110 (she closed -140) but dropping one unit on Aldana +105 who was soundly outclassed by Holly Holm.

Insight the Octagon profitability 2020: 32-20 +18.0u

Thus far in 2020 Favorites stand 216-109-11 64.2%

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

--updated 10-10-20 7:30am PT—

Sandhagen -135 vs. Moraes +115

This will be a great fight. Sandhagen will have to prove his last outing was a fluke and overcome all doubt he has as to whether he is truly a top challenger in this division and Moreas must prove he is of championship caliber conditioning and find a way to grind through a tough arduous fight which I believe this will be.

Sandhagen -135

Barboza -280 vs. Amerkhani +230

I believe Amerkhani is smart enough to know that if he stands with Barboza he’ll get slept. Therefore, I'll reverse my lean and look for Amerkhani to survive and survive only. Boring.

Over 2.5 +130

Breese -240 vs. Bhullar +220

Bhullar needs to immediately threaten Breese with pressure and I believe that’s exactly what he’ll do.

Bhullar +220

Morales -155 vs. Chikadze +135

Morales drops from Lightweight to take on a long and dangerous Chickadze. Morales’ last bout with Moggly displayed his structure and solid fight foundation. Chicadze does not have the game to withstand the Venezuelan’s aggression and forward pressure.

Morales -155

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN Holm vs. Aldana: cat'Fight Island' - 10/3/2020

Today’s Holm vs. Aldana fight card provides us just a handful of fights worthy of wagering consideration. From those few bouts, prohibitive favorites are pared and we are left with three to four fights that deliver advantage.

While the betting selections are few understand that the remaining process involves carefully grading each of the fighters on this slate that I have scant data on for use in future betting opportunities. Either way there is profit in this event for us today.

Let’s Fight

--originally published 9-30-20 ‘Point Spread Weekly’—

Israel Adesanya’s dynamic KO victory over Paulo Costa at UFC 253 cemented him as the undisputed Middleweight Champion. Later this year top contender Jarod Cannonier and ex- middleweight champion Robert Whittaker meet in an elimination bout to determine who Adesanya will defend his title against next.

Insight the Octagon profitability grows incrementally as we won1 .20u with Adesanya ‘Inside the Distance’ (that price closed +140) but lost with Tukhugov -110. Tukhugov, despite an unfair weight advantage could not overcome his stellar lack of fight intelligence as he danced his way into a loss late in that fight. The open parlay with Adesanya -170 is working and I will use that in an upcoming fight card.

Insight the Octagon to date: 31-19 +18.0u

This week’s fight card from ‘Fight Island’ is steeped with athletes that are either debuting or have very little name recognition as opposed to last week’s slate. Nonetheless, these cards spawn future contenders and game fighters that present advantage in upcoming match-ups so I regard this slate as important for those opportunities.

Holly Holm -125 vs. Irene Aldana -105 Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds) main event

Grizzled MMA veteran Holly Holm enters this bout a polished, well rounded fighter who sports a wealth of kickboxing/MMA experience against the absolute best women’s fighters over the last decade. Besides her depth of experience, Holm utilizes forward pressure and a damaging striking/kickboxing attack when she is at her most dangerous. A southpaw, Holm is used to having the advantage of height and length but in this encounter those advantages wash as she will only have a slight reach advantage over her lanky opponent.

Irene Aldana steps up in class for this opportunity to face Holm. Based on the performance in her last fight against Katlin Viera, she deserves this bout as she walked down Katlin Viera (winner last week against Sijara Eubanks) last December to solidify her top five position in the division. Aldana’s advantages lie in her youth, her grappling prowess, her aggressive nature and her size but in this bout, she’ll not command a size advantage which will affect her less than it will her opponent.

Early, Aldana may have a difficult time managing Holm’s movement, size, strength and striking as she works to make her way inside. However, her unrelenting pressure will eventually enable her to clinch, grope and maul Holm and eliminate Holm’s space. In time Aldana will force this fight against the cage then to the floor where she’ll own great advantage over Holm.

Holm at thirty-nine can still be an effective fighter but in this case against Aldana she faces too much youth, pressure and stamina.

Aldana -105

Pending weigh-ins of course

Germaine de Ramdomie -110 vs. Julianna Pena -110 Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Pena, nicknamed the Venezuelan Vixen because of her dynamic looks is a well-rounded mixed martial artist with a solid wrestling/BJJ base. After she was beaten by Valentina Schevchenko in 2017 Pena left the game to have a child then returned in July of last year and scored a relatively lethargic decision win over Nicco Montano.

Pena is athletic and, in this fight, she takes a huge step up in class of opponent and diversity of fight arsenal of said opponent. To be effective Pena will eventually have to drag the oversized de Randomie to the floor to gain advantage but this will be a difficult task for her….but key to the fight.

GDR has won every woman s world fighting title including the inaugural UFC Featherweight title over Holly Holm in 2017. GDR can grapple, strike, counter or press. She’ll have substantial height and reach advantages in this fight beside being the fighter with well more experience as well against a much more competent level of opponent. I am surprised this fight is lined as it is and while I respect Pena’s abilities the choice here is with the Duchess.

De Randomie -115 take it NOW!

Yorgan de Castro -270 vs. Carlos Felipe +220 Heavyweight (265 pounds) co main event

You thought I was kidding when I said the other fights on this card had little name recognition?

This one is easy. Yorgan de Castro is a man with a humble background who is easy to pull for. De Castro spends his days mentoring kids at the high school that employs him. After he hits the timeclock at the high school, he hits the gym to train at the end of his day.

Yorgan de Castro, from Camp Verde does have some wrestling in his background but he’s a power striker at heart. It was de Castro that fought Greg Hardy in early May and though he was finished he was game in his attempt to compete and somewhat hyped as a competent challenger to Hardy though that may have been a bit over ambitious.

Felipe, a Brazilian fighter is 8-1 and was defeated soundly in his UFC debut by one Sergei Spivak via decision in his debut. His first impression as a fighter was underwhelming, his impression as a professional sportsman was poor as Felipe trash talked his opponent early then after three minutes of fight time gassed badly and was pulverized.

Felipe has been put in front of de Castro for a reason and it’s to take a second thorough ‘whuppin’.

Pass….for now

Casey Kenney -280 vs. Heili Alateng +240 Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Kenney will dominate the Chinese fighter by grasping him, tossing him to the floor then wrestling him up. Kenney may be used in parlays etc. with confidence.

--updated 10-3-20 7am PT—

Holm -115 vs. Aldana +100

Little to update, Aldana must pressure Holm and make her back up then curl up. Holm must maintain distance and keep the forward pressing striker at range.

GDR -145 vs. Pena +130

As expected, there’s been money coming in on GDR and rightfully so. This line is closer to where I handicap this fight. As I’ve mentioned on many of the live spots, I was fortunate enough to do this week the GDR via decision wager may be the best way to bet this fight now as that return is +195 and remember that these two are top rated fighters going only three rounds.

GDR -115 or

GDR decision +195 for those tuning in today….

De Castro -260 vs. Felipe +215

Felipe is the type of human that one (at least this one) wants to see pummeled. He’s a shit talking disrespectful brawler with profuse power for a short time. He eats more than trains and finds himself in the octagon today with a fighter who carries a great story (see above) and is the more complete mixed martial artist. I am hoping de Castro takes tis cat’s head off …. but only late in this fight! Released yesterday on ’Rush hour’ with Danny Burke

Over 1.5 -110

Currently Over -120

Williams -120 vs. Imavov +100

Another released yesterday on VSiN’s ‘Rush Hour’. I went into this handicap thinking Williams all the way. I came out thinking the Dagestani fighter has what it takes to get this fight to the floor where he will hold great advantage and the undersized Williams will be at substantial DISadvantage.

Imavov +120

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC 253 Adesanya vs. Costa: Middleweight Meat? - 9/26/2020

for Stanley Cuup releases please hit the 'hockey' tab at the top of this webpage

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 253 where Middleweights with hatred on one another compete for the Championship belt and the prestige that comes with being Champion. This Adesanya vs. Costa fight has been on my radar for weeks now and I must say I have some candid thoughts about this main event.

As is standard procedure here at GambLou.com World HQ, I’ll post this week’s “Insight the Octagon” article submitted to VSiN for publication in their magazine ‘Point Spread Weekly”.

Tuesday noon deadlines at first seemed a hinderance but I have found it forces me to do my handicapping early which in turn has sharpened my steel. As you readers are aware this is not about being right or wrong, this is a business and today the single point of focus is to derive profit from this fight card. Entertainment has no value here so with that out of the way….

Let’s Fight

--originally published 9-16-20 ‘Point Spread Weekly’—

"Styles make Fights"

This week’s main event between UFC Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya and number one ranked contender Paulo Costa needs little introduction. Early in my fight enthrallment I was naturally drawn to Angelo Dundee and began studying the great boxing cornerman/trainer who worked for Muhammad Ali among several other world class championship boxers.

Dundee was famous for quipping that, ‘styles make fights. I don’t believe he originated the saying but he was the originator to me so I attribute the famous saying to him. I mention Dundee because this main event Saturday is the epitome of the ‘styles make fights’ moniker. In many ways I believe this match-up is quite similar to the three fights Dundee’s protege’ Ali had to endure when he faced Joe Frazier thrice as well George Foreman in Zaire.

Last week we bailed ourselves out of a 0-3 performance when Colby Covington finished Tyron Woodley in round five. That .5u position at +275 allowed us to minimize any real loss. For the event we’ll record a 1-2 < .12> u result.

2020 Insight the octagon profitability: 30-18 +17.9u

Abu Dhabi hosts the UFC’s next several ‘Fight Island’ productions. Remember that the larger 30’ cage is used at this location. In the bouts on ‘Fight Island’ it’s my judgement that the extra square footage is a substantial advantage for fighters that are fluid moving athlete’s that utilize movement and spacing to their favor.

Israel Adesanya -170 vas. Paulo Costa +150 Middleweight (185lbs.) Championship

Number one ranked, undefeated middleweight Paul Costa (13-0) from Brazil must earn his championship belt on Saturday from another undefeated fighter who just happens to be the undisputed, undefeated middleweight champion.

The magnitude of a championship fight featuring two undefeated fighters is always special but once we look into the hatred each man feels for the other and the polar opposite set of weaponry that each man brings to this battle, we’ll grasp how truly epic this fight may end up being.

Costa is a chiseled specimen of a man who has a bodybuilders physique. He is incredibly explosive; he possesses profuse power in either hand and in both legs and he compliments a fierce aggressive style with a granite jaw. Costa is singularly dimensioned as a mixed martial artist in fact I feel that term is used loosely when describing his skillset. His single point of focus once the bell rings is to seek and destroy. A black belt in BJJ, Costa can roll but he prefers to walk opponents down then beat the stuffing out of them.

Costa lands 8.5 strikes per minute which is incredibly busy especially understanding the depth of power generated in each strike. His defense lacks however as opponents have touched him on an average of 6.8 strikes per minute. Costa is more than willing to stand and trade because he feels he can eat the opponents best shot while they are unable to withstand his.

While Costa is rife with finishing power, explosion and bad intention he is lacking in experience and physical advantage in this match-up. In his thirteen wins he’s had to go three full rounds only once which was in his last outing.

That fight was last August against Yoel Romero, the only real test that Costa has had to endure and while he won the fight a closer look shows that Costa’s defense eroded throughout the fight. In round one Romero landed 32 significant strikes against Costa, in round two he landed 40 and in the final frame 53. Romero is forty-one years old.

Costa believes his unrelenting pressure and blunt force trauma body attack will break his taller, longer opponent and at the opening bell Costa will attack his opponent like a bull seeks the matador.

Questions on Costa revolve around his lack of championship experience and the singular dimension to his attack which on Saturday may leave him vulnerable to a more fluid moving, counter striking opponent.

Champion Adesanya is the more athletic, polished, complete mixed martial artist who dominates fights by combining deft movement, precision striking (with all appendages) and skillful defense to overwhelm victims seeking to engage with him. Adesanya’s experience, speed, and physical attributes together combine to create as complete a fighter as there is in the UFC today.

Adesanya has faced superior competition to his opponent and has prepared for and won three main event events all scheduled for five rounds. He’s seen the five round distance twice (Gastelum then Romero) so Adesanya can fight effectively and at his most dangerous, late in fights.

Adesanya is the taller fighter who will have an eight-inch reach advantage arms and five inches with legs. He utilizes an elite championship kickboxing background complimented by a blue belt in BJJ. Adesanya lands an average of 4 strikes per minute on opponents but it’s his defense which separates him from other pedigreed fighters as he is only hit at the rate of 2.4 strikes per minute.

Costa’s weaponry is less complete, he thrives on simple unrelenting pressure and one punch KO power to dominate opponents and he has been effective with this approach in his young career.

When the bell rings, Costa is going to project himself forward at his opponent to engage. Adesanya will need to keenly navigate the unrelenting early pressure and those telegraphed ‘Sunday shots’ that Costa is going to be hurling.

Early in this fight Adesanya is at the most risk so he must be diligent to quickly find his flow before this time bomb goes off. He must utilize movement and use distance to manage this fight into later rounds where Costa’s energy level will lapse thereby allowing the accumulation of Adesanya strikes/kicks take effect.

At the end of the day, Adesanya’s athleticism, deft movement and constant precision counter striking will batter this brazen Brazilian bully as Costa has not been in the octagon with a fighter of Adesanya’s abilities.

This fight opened Adesanya -135, currently the price is Adesanya -170.

I’m already in play at the opening price so my advice to those reading is to consider remaining patient. The public could easily be judging this Costa book by its cover and Costa money may come in late making the value on Adesanya even greater for those that choose to wait. For me I’ll commit to the following two positions in this main event:

Adesanya -170 1u leg 1

This is the first leg of a two-team parlay where the second leg remains open for later use. Readers are aware that I minimize exposure by employing this tactic.

Props: Adesanya ITD +120 1u

The total in this fight: 2.5 Over -125

I am hesitant to take this total OVER because I feel Costa, once frustrated could rush right into a mouth full of shinbone.

Dominick Reyes -260 vs. Jan Blachowicz +220 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Interim title bout

Jon Jones vacating the Light Heavyweight title created the need for a new champion and these two fighters have earned the opportunity.

Dom Reyes is the top contender in the division coming into this fight off a loss in his last outing to Jon Jones. He’ll be the favorite in this fight facing the number three ranked contender in Poland’s Jan Blachowicz.

Blachowicz, thirty-seven has been fighting professionally for thirteen years so he’ll hold an advantage in experience over Reyes but I wonder if that’s where his advantages end. Blachowicz’s last outing against Corey Anderson was perhaps his brightest moment, yet outside of that bout Blachowicz victories are over the likes of Luke Rockhold (retired) and Jacare’ Souza (forty plus years old and washed).

Dom Reyes enters this bout of a close split decision loss to Jon Jones. In the bout Reyes displayed athleticism, durability and cardio as he went the full five rounds with the best pound for pound fighter in the history of the UFC.

Reyes, a southpaw is taller by a couple of inches so he’ll have leverage on Blachowicz even though he will not hold a reach advantage. Reyes earned victories over top contender Cannonier (now a middleweight), Volkan Oezdimer and Ovince St. Preux so Blachowicz will not present anything to Reyes that he hasn’t seen prior.

Reyes’ youth, speed, quickness and size give him advantage in this fight and I believe he should be at least a -220 favorite.

This bout opened Reyes -210. Total is not posted

Zabaira Tukhugov -110 vs. Hakeem Dawado +110 Featherweight (145lbs.)

What? A Russian fighter who does not utilize his grappling?

I thought it was impossible until I saw Tukhugov fight in the UFC. This Wildman is a master of sport in hand to hand combat as well as Sambo and while he may master grappling, he has not utilized it in any of his previous fights.

Tukhugov usually wants to stand and bang with opponents but he’ll discover quickly that his opponent’s speed and length will cause him plenty of duress. I believe this forces Tukhugov to employ his Sambo in this bout as grappling is the sure advantage Tukhugov holds over Dawado in this match-up. What’s out of my control is whether he utilizes it or not.

In Dawado the UFC picked a perfect opponent if the result they were after was pure unadulterated striking violence. Dawado is roughly the same age and size as Tukhugov but he’ll hold substantial reach advantage with both arms and legs.

Dawado is the quicker, more explosive striker and he’ll hold an advantage standing. His style of offensive fighting requires abundant energy which coupled with any form of take down defense from Tukhugov grappling may cause him issue the later this fight goes.

The key in this fight is whether Tukhugov can forget the banging and take this fight to the floor where Dawado is overmatched.

Tukhugov -110

Pending weigh-ins

–updated 9-26-20 7:30am PT—

Adesanya -170 vs. Costa +150

My wagers have indicated a strong position on Adesanya which is exactly correct. That said, in the early face off then the stare down post weigh-in’s Adesanya showed signs of cracking. Drop the cold egg in boiling water and the shell splits a bit….I don’t like what he’s displaying while the smug Brazilian goads him further. Psychologically our kid is behind. Let’s hope he can transform this pressure into performance.

Please note: currently Adesanya ITD +165

Tukhugov -135 vs. Dawado +115

Tukhugov’s ambition to win this fight by entering with a substantial weight advantage disappoints me. Released above at Tukhugov -110 I regarded him as a bargain provided, he/they made weight. He did better and has cheated his way into advantage by that tactic…one used by many since they changed the weigh-in process a few years ago to today’s format. In any case Tukhugov now -135 has the value sucked out of it so get it -135 (or better).

Espino -290 vs. Hughes +250

Espino is big, thick and a grappling expert. Hughes is short, squat and desperate entering this fight as he’s 0-2-1. If this fight finds the floor Hughes will be dominated. If it says on the feet Hughes will batter the lumbering grappler.

Hughes +250 .5u

France -220 vs. Royval +200

France should be the chalk but Royval recently quit a day job to train full time as well he’ll be the longer, taller fighter with a decent advantage on the mat. Royval MUST get this fight to the mat.

Royval +200 .5u

Enjoy the fights

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN Covington vs. Woodley: A trip to the T-Wood shed - 9/19/2020

*NFL releases found by accessing the "Football" tab at the top of this webpage

*Stanley Cup releases available by accessing the 'Hockey' tab at the top of this webpage

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to an all sports Saturday September 19th 2020 where we have NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAA football, PGA, UFC etc. to make investments upon

Usually in mid-September the UFC fight cards compete against the late college football slate for the bail out bets that hit come 5pm PT Saturday night.

This week the latest kick for a College football game is 6pm PT which means that outside of watching paint dry (regular season hardball) the UFC is the only action available Saturday night to serve as the ‘bail-out’ for gamblers chasing their tails from earlier Saturday.

This week’s slate coupled with the next few from ‘Fight Island’ take this in mind fight fans and I look for the UFC to continue to grow and make advantage of 2020 when most of the other major sports have to write it off.

As is customary I’ll lead with my Wednesday article form PSW followed by updated comments and final releases.

Let’s Fight

--originally published 9-16-20 ‘Point Spread Weekly’—

It seems like weekly UFC fight slates have joined death and taxes as life’s certainty’s!

This week the APEX in Las Vegas hosts a final domestic Fight Night before the organization ships to Abu Dhabi to resume the ‘Fight Island’ productions. At the APEX fighters compete in a smaller 25’ Octagon which ‘enhances’ confrontation in all forms. I mention this because cage size does factor in fights.

For this week’s APEX fights I’ll be mostly focused bouts held at welterweight (170lbs.) and heavier where larger fighters will have well less room to evade confrontation.

As an aside, next week’s main event ‘from ‘Fight Island’ which uses the larger 30’ cage is the highly anticipated fight between Middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya from New Zealand and the number one challenger, Brazil‘s Paulo Costa. To say Adesanya’s chances are greatly enhanced based on that extra real estate he’ll enjoy based on the 30‘cage is an understatement. Cage size among other factors I’ll share next week led me to take Adesanya -135 at opening bell. Adesanya is currently -155 to Costa +135.

As far as this week’s card, five of the top six bouts on the slate are fighters that are experienced, refined in their skills and highly regarded within their divisions. In each case these combatants are facing equally aspiring, ambitions opponents. The main event fights will be compelling.

Colby Covington -345 vs. Tyron Woodley +285 Welterweight main event

Fifth ranked Woodley is now thirty-eight and has looked every bit his age in his last two bouts, albeit both losses were against the two top ranked fighters in the division today. Woodley has always been somewhat premeditated in his manner choosing to supplement a once devastating wrestling game with profuse punching power. That was then however because now Woodley struggles to ‘get off’ in fights as well he’s been unwilling to expend the precious cardio required to wrestle for control in his fight. As a result, his performances appear lack luster because Woodley is a relatively inactive striker who has been unable to fire.

Now Woodley’s been training with old friend and Covington hater Jorge Masvidal for this fight and he’s talking like he’s discovered all the answers but my belief is that this main event is his one last payday before he becomes a simple stepping stone for the division’s upwardly elite.

Second ranked welterweight contender Covington the fighter is a top three standout in the Welterweight division along with Champion Usman and number one contender Gilbert Burns. Covington employed a bombastic and constantly vulgar verbal attack on all of humanity in propelling himself to the top of the division but in this fight, he has been interestingly absent from the mic. A positive tell which I believe displays focus.

Covington has a world class wrestling pedigree which alone makes him someone to contend with. Now add to his wrestling prowess a rapidly improving and effective striking game laced with unrelenting forward pressure and the willingness to compete in frenetic fashion for twenty-five minutes and you have a certain Welterweight contender.

In this fight Woodley has one chance and that is to catch Covington with the one asset that has not betrayed the old pugilist, his power. Woodley’s guile, experience and pride must force him to come out and immediately take the fight to Covington which is risky because it will leave him wilting in the later rounds but it is the path he must take if he is to win Saturday.

Covington’s plan is the same as in all his fights, utilize unrelenting forward pressure coupled with high volume precision striking to work his way inside then wrangle opponents against the fence then onto the floor. His ability to never tire, his youth, speed and more complete fight arsenal all combine to make Woodley look as poorly as he has in his previous two fights.

Woodley’s last two fights have both gone five rounds against the division’s top two ranked fighters, rather than believe that prepares him to take this fight deep I believe his abilities are washed and Covington will get the old man out before the end of the fifth round most likely via submission.

I regard Covington as a true -350 in this bout.

Covington (ITD) Inside the Distance +275 .5u

Niko Price -155 vs. Donald Cerrone +135 Welterweight co main event

How about fourteenth ranked Lightweight Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone? He’s a fourteen-year professional mixed martial artist who holds a 36-15 record. Cerrone has fought the who’s who in two divisions of the UFC but he has lost his last four fights two in each the lightweight division and Welterweight.

Fighters that have bested Cerrone in those recent fights are elite world class fighters named Ferguson, Gaethje and McGregor to which there is no shame. His last loss against Anthony Pettis is the bout where Cerrone ‘s reaction time, speed and skill really seemed to have betrayed him. It’s possible that Cerrone’s highly active lifestyle outside the octagon, which is as dangerous as his life in it may have caught up to the perennial gamer.

Cerrone’s opponent Saturday is one Niko Price who is six years younger than Cerrone. He’ll hold reach advantages over the Cowboy and he’s every bit as crazy as Cerrone which makes this fight compelling. Where the Cowboy is cool and collected in approaching opponents, Price is wild and unorthodox.

Storming forward and bullying the Cowboy with a bludgeoning body attack has always been the blueprint on how to beat Cerrone. Price has all the tools to make that his plan of attack going into the fight. However, once Price gets into a firefight his extreme/wild/unpredictable nature can often get him into trouble against fighters able to remain even headed as they can take advantage of the many openings Price offers opponents in every fight. Can cowboy match the early pressure of Price or will he wilt underneath it?

I’m not sure Cerrone can make it through this one.

Khamzat Chimaev -480 vs. Gerald Meerschardt +370

You may recall Chimaev from earlier ‘fight Island’ productions. He came into his debut fight and submitted a journeyman named John Phillips at 185lbs.

In his next bout two weeks later at 170lbs. he fought a lightweight (155lbs.) moving up in weight AND taking the bout on just days’ notice, Chimaev destroyed the undersized Rhys McKee in one round and the hype was hatched!

Now Chimaev and his undefeated eight fight professional career land in Vegas ready to fight a legitimate Middleweight fighter in Gerald Meerschardt who has a 31-13 professional record. Meerschardt is also a natural Middleweight fighter where Chimaev has competed between the two divisions.

Inexperienced but ultra-talented fighters getting tossed into the fire too quickly is something we’re seen prior in the UFC and the next mark may be named Khamzat Chimaev

This is a PhD. in MMA fight if I have ever seen one. Not only is Chimaev stepping well up in class of opponent, he’s fighting a man who has competed in the UFC for years against other legitimate UFC middleweights. Further, where Chimaev is most skilled is where the larger more experienced Meerschardt is also most apt.

Contributing to Meerschardt focus for this fight is the fact that Chimaev has already accepted a fight against Demain Maia on ‘Fight Island’ in a couple of weeks. So, suffice it to say that Meerschardt is aiming to spoil the party for the young Swede on Saturday.

Chimaev lined as a favorite of up to -200 seems reasonable but to make him -480 in this fight is not correctly assessing his opponent Gerald Meerschardt.

Meerschardt +370 .5u

Johnny Walker -130 vs. Ryan Spann +110 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Not only is this the most exciting fight of this card, it may be the most exciting fight of the quarter. These two men are twenty-nine years old and are both PLAYERS in the LHW division.

Eleventh ranked Walker is a Brazilian striker who arrived on the scene with flash and flair. After a couple of beat downs however at the hands of more experienced, refined fighters Walker went back into the gym to improve his fighting by complimenting it with wrestling/grappling which does not come overnight.

Walker, a brown belt in BJJ is primarily a striker, He’s an overly explosive powerful one at that. When Walker can keep opponents at distance and on the end of his spinning backfists and lethal leg strikes he is hard to handle.

Recent opponents who have solved Walker have discovered that taking the fight straight to him by pressuring him backwards befuddles him and impedes his ability to be offensive, his main weapon.

Ryan Spann is a mixed martial artist fighting out of team Fortis in Texas. The simplest way for me to describe Spann is to say that he is a pure ‘Texas badass’, tough, unrelenting with his striking pressure and powerful.

Walker has been in with slightly better opposition than has Spann but Spann is ill intentioned to his core and his deep seeded aggression makes him dangerous no matter who he competes with. Spann’s attacks are initiated by straight pressuring opponents then engaging in a kicking and striking war.

In this fight Spann will have to manage Walker’s athleticism and deft movement before he can earn his way inside to begin chopping the athletic Walker down with power strikes. Spann’s ability to work his way to inside position provides the intrigue for this fight.

Walker will need to utilize his athleticism to maintain distance in order to strike effectively and remain outside of Spann’s slugging. Spann will work to close distance and initiate the throw down on Walker which over time will kill his legs then provide Spann the opportunity to destroy.

The APEX center 25’ cage absolutely comes into play here. Best Bet

Spann +110

Last week we realized 2-0 with one release (Schnell) cancelled due to Covid. One of the wins was Ed Herman +220 who really should not have wont the fight. I mention this only because there have been a handful of bouts we have been on the wrong end of, either by opponents missing weight or poor judging and my response has been to record the results and move ahead. We get one back in Herman +220 and I won’t for a minute apologize…I’ll record results and move forward.

Insight the octagon 2020: 29-16 +18.1u

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

--updated 9-19-20 7:35am PT--

Covington -330 vs. Woodley +265

I believe Covington’s quiet throughout the leadup to this fight is the biggest tell. He’s ready for WAR. Woodley’s routine leading up to this fight is perplexing to me and I honestly feel he is reaching deep to try to find motivation to come out pressing like Marvin Hagler did against Tommy Hearns in their 1985 epic fight as I see that as his only path to victory.

For those having trouble finding Covington ITD +330 now I urge you to consider the “Fight does not go Distance” Pro which pays +150

In fact, I like that wager though it is more conservative because it gives Tryon the opportunity to land that lucky Sunday shot.

Fight does not go Distance +150

Price -140 vs. Cerrone +120

I believe Cerrone is washed and as long as Price keeps his head (-295 against) I believe he can bully the ‘poke.

Chimaev -460 vs. Meerschardt +370

Wait as long as you can to get Meerschardt at as high a price as possible. That’s .5-unit wager and it is a longshot…. this Chimaev is talented but not going to overwhelm Meerschardt who is slower and more deliberate as well quite more experienced, larger and focused because he feels disrespected.

Over 1.5 +110 1u

Walker -145 vs. Spann +125

This could be the best fight of the fall. Walker is faster, quicker, flashier and has trouble with cardio and against aggressive pressing fighters. Spann is deliberate, powerful, willing and also has trouble late in fights. Each man has struggled with proper conditioning for fights…. let’s see which one was more serious leading up to this one because cardio may make the difference here.

Spann +125

Newsome -125 vs. Costa +110

This price is coming our way but use patience as the parlay playing pukes will be bombing Costa believing he finishes the shorter stockier Newsome. While this is possible, I believe the more likely outcome will be Newsome weathering an early frantic storm before turning the fight around in the second and third rounds.

Newsome -125

patience as it may keep dropping

Ewell -225 vs. Rivera +190

A lengthy lefty in Ewell faces a sawed-off southpaw in Rivera. When two Southee’s collide, anything can happen from a boring snore fest to a bar room brawl. In this case I believe Rivera has the ability to earn his way inside and batter Ewell’s body. Ewell’s length and athleticism will factor here and it will be Rivera’s ability to cut the cage that will be an important factor for his chances tonight. Ewell opened a fair -170 for this bout and has been bet to current. I’ll be patient here attempting to gain

Rivera +190 or better.

.5u

Good luck to all and Thank You for reading

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC Vegas 10 Waterson vs. Hill: Lady lethargy - 9/12/2020

*Please hit the 'Hockey' tab at the top of this webage to access Stanley Cup Playoff releases

*Please access the 'Profitability' tab at the top of this webpage for a complete breakdown of profitabiity by sport...the few I work.

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN Hill vs. Waterson, a most underwhelming main event. While said main event is lacking in marquee names and potent punching power the rest of the card actually has some favorable matchups for us. Let’s take a look at my breakdown of a handful of fights published earlier this week on VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ magazine.

After that piece I’ll offer my updated thoughts and wagers ow that the weigh-ins have occurred and little yet may come to surprise us.

--Let’s Fight--

--originally published 9-9-20 Point Spread Weekly—

The UFC normally competes with college football each Saturday in the fall but this year its growth may be further boosted due to the lack of NCAA football. The college teams in the western US that compete on Saturday nights won’t be there this year leaving the UFC as the potential ‘bail-out’ for bettors each Saturday.

I’ll be interested in developments with NCAA as well the major sports this fall but selfishly, I welcome an opening in Saturday night gaming for the UFC and I believe there are few others that may take advantage of it like Dana White will.

Last week both Alistair Overeem and Ovince Saint Preux scored impressive wins which padded Insight the Octagon profitability in 2020 to 27-16 +14.7u.

Favorites stand 188-92-9 (65%) thus far in 2020 which is about their average over the past several years.

Obtaining advantage over the opening lines and uncovering value remain our single point of focus with the understanding that value laden underdogs are specifically targeted.

This week we have a fight card where the original main event had to be cancelled. The new main event while compelling is really unworthy of main event status in my judgement. As we enter the final couple of fight slates before the UFC heads to fight island, it’s my take that they are cleaning out the closet and getting any/all of the domestic fighters wanting to earn and be active an opportunity to fight. This manifests itself in cards such as this week’s which does by the way offer a couple of interesting sides.

Here are thoughts on the main event on this card with a couple opinions on bouts I have targeted as potential investments.

Angela Hill -145 vs. Michelle Waterson +125 Woman’s Strawweight (115lbs.) Main Event

Fight fans viewing this bout best be patient because the result will be a five-round decision.

Watching this bout will be like observing two flies’ in a gallon jug for twenty-five minutes…yes, brutal. There’s little differentiating these two. Hill has slight height and reach advantages supplemented with aggression which provides her advantage in stand up striking.

‘The Karate Hottie’ Waterson has faced superior competition and is a bit more complete as a fighter. She’ll own advantage should she be able to get Hill to the mat.

Hill opened -125 and has been bet up slightly.

There is no total listed yet but “Fight goes to decision” is a steep -295

Therefore, I lean to: Hill via decision +110, Waterson via decision is +195.

Khama Worthy -130 vs. Ottman Azaitar +120 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

A couple of dangerous strikers will meet in this co main event. Worthy is more experienced and owns an edge in caliber of fighters faced but he’s been finished in all six of his defeats. Azaitar makes is sophomore appearance in the cage and is sure to meet Worthy in the middle for a good old-fashioned throw down.

Azaitar is a short, explosive hungry explosive power striker. Worthy, the slightly taller man will not own reach advantage and he’s more than willing to ‘take’ in order to ‘give’. In this fight, against this opponent that may be a bad combination.

Worthy opened +120 and has now been bet to chalk status. Fighters in the UFC that open as favorites but get bet into underdog status are a profitable position.

strong lean to Azaitar but I’ll use patience here as this price looks to continue to climb

Andrea Lee -325 vs. Rozanne Modafferi +270 Woman’s Flyweight (125lbs.)

This is a rematch of a 2014 fight that Modafferi won via split decision. Then Modafferi, a grappling savant was thirty-two and at the prime of her career. Lee, then twenty-five was still coming of fighting age and not yet the professional she is today.

Lee is a cowboy boot wearing power striker who can wrestle in the mud or brawl in the barroom. She’s tough, determined and dangerous. Modafferi is more a finesse fighter using stand-up only long enough to clasp and cling. She will not want to stand with Lee. Modafferi’s only real angle in this fight is to try to use Lee’s aggression against her and lure her into a submission but I believe Lee is too savvy to fall into that trap. Lee is the worthy chalk here.

Mike Rodriguez -260 vs. Ed Herman +220 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Rodriguez makes the quick turnaround as he KO’d Marcin Prachino August 22nd. Rodriguez is three inches taller than Herman and he’ll hold substantial reach advantages. Rodriguez, a kick boxing-based striker will want to keep this fight standing and force Herman to remain on the outside and at range in order to club him with leg kicks and strikes.

Herman, thirty-nine has won his last two fights and three of his last six so he’s no sodbuster! Though Herman is well older than his opponent, he’ll hold vast advantages in experience and level of opponent faced beside being the much more complete fighter.

Herman wants this fight dirty; he’ll strive to immediately close distance on the longer man so he can gain inside position and maul, clasp and grapple. I expect Herman to as quickly as possible drag Rodriguez to the floor and test him there.

Herman was prepped and ready to fight a few weeks ago against another opponent before that bout was cancelled and I look for him to be amped up to take this fight right to a fighter in Rodriguez that I feel may potentially be flawed by a lack of grappling/wrestling.

I’ll use Herman as a release this week but advise patience as this price may be rising….

Herman +220

Tyson Nam -120 vs. Matt Schnell +100 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Nam from Hawaii is conditioned and tough and had he not won his last bout he most likely would have been released. Schnell from Hawaii is seven years the younger man at thirty. He’ll have a slight height advantage with strong reach advantages. Schnell’s grappling may be more refined than Nam’s and I do expect this fight to hit the floor sometime with Schell on top.

This line opened Schell -125 and I feel that is more reflective of this bout than current pricing.

Schnell +100

Again, patience as this line is moving in Schnell’s favor.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

--updated 9-12-20 7:39am PT--

Hill -113 vs. Waterson +102

This line has dropped enough to advise a straight up bet on Hill -113 for those reading today as opposed to taking the via decision +110 as we advised earlier this week as that line is now +105…there’s more advantage to just take Hill straight-up now. For those of you with the via decision +110 bet…I salute you!

Worthy -130 vs. Azaitar +115

A little buy back on the German fighter Azaitar which I absolutely agree with here.

Azaitar +115

take it asap Azaitar at any dog price is a go

Rodriguez -210 vs. Herman +190

Herman +220

was released earlier this week but he is a value at any price +170 or higher in my judgement. Herman has the tools and I feel the focus to upset this stiff and relatively one dimensional fighter in Rodriguez tonight.

Nam vs. Schnell

Fight taken away due to Covid. Damnit.

Quarantillo -250 vs. Nelson +210

I discussed this fight all week long also. Quarantillo +135 ITD (inside the distance) is the wager. That price has now been compressed to +105 which I still feel is the way to attack this fight.

Good luck and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN Overeem vs. Sakai: Sakai Bomb! - 9/5/2020

*Please hit the 'Hockey' tab at the top of this webage to access Stanley Cup Playoff releases

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN Overeem vs. Sakai. Some great large man fights this week in the APEX’s smaller cage. Let’s break-em down. First up is my article from Wednesday’s PSW which is available via VSiN THE sports betting network.

Updated comments and all final releases follow. Matriculating profit from the UFC events is the game so let’s drop the gloves already.

--Let’s Fight--

--originally published 9-2-20 Point Spread Weekly—

This week’s UFC production again comes from the APEX center in Las Vegas. A ten-fight slate is scheduled featuring two Heavyweight fights, one light heavyweight battle and two other competitive bouts where combatants weighing 170lbs. or larger will compete in the APEX’s smaller 25’ octagon.

Name recognition and marquee athlete’s other than headliner Alistair Overeem are fleeting on this fight card yet several of the match-ups are compelling from an investment standpoint. Let’s cover some stats then break down the bouts.

Favorites in the UFC 2020 stand 183-90-9 (64.8%).

Of the 282 bouts 132 have ended via finish (46.8%) and 148 via decision (52.4%) with 2 NC.

Last week Insight the Octagon roared back into the win column after a couple of hard luck weeks. Full unit releases of Racik/Smith Over 1.5 and Cummings +100 hit the board while Anthony Smith (.5u) lost pushing 2020 profitability to 25-16 +12.5u

This week’s main event is an important Heavyweight bout as the winner will be propelled into top six standing while the loser falls into a deep pool of mediocre heavyweight talent in the UFC.

Alistair Overeem -138 vs. Augusto Sakai +118 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Main Event

Here’s another case of an aged world class fighting talent squaring off against a much younger more explosive ‘up and coming’ challenger.

The challenger is twenty-nine-year-old Augusto Sakai who is the grandson of Japanese immigrants to Brazil. Sakai’s advantage’s in this bout are his youth, power and explosion. Sakai is a striking based fighter specializing in Muay Thai with a purple belt in BJJ so he wants to stand and strike and has shown absolutely no need to grapple thus far in his UFC stint.

Since being discovered with a KO victory on Dana White’s contender series in 2018, Sakai has won four straight UFC bouts and is undefeated since a loss to Cheick Kongo in another organization in 2017. Sakai enters this bout with huge momentum and heavy hands but he’ll be giving away much to his older adversary.

My overall take after reviewing Sakai’s history is that he’s not faced anyone near the level of fight acumen or experience and weaponry that Overeem possesses. Sakai’s wins; Ivanov, Arlovski, Tybura and Sherman were all singular dimensioned fighters who never threatened Sakai with wrestling, clinch work or refined striking and movement. Sakai will be seeing something he has never seen before from his perspective INSIDE the octagon!

Favorite in the bout Alistair Overeem is a highly decorated thirty-nine-year-old mixed martial artist. His wealth of experience and his superior kickboxing/Muay Thai background have enabled him to be a dangerous force in the light heavyweight and heavyweight division of every organization in MMA since he turned professional in 1999.

Overeem, though forty years old is extremely dangerous anywhere a fight goes, of his 46 professional wins twenty-four have come via KO/TKO and seventeen via submission which leaves just five decisions. He lands 3.66 strikes (arms and legs mind you) per minute while only receiving 2.1 per minute which is important because Overeem’s glaring weakness is a propensity to get popped on the point and go out which is highly undesirable in any fighter let alone a forty-year-old Heavyweight.

In this bout Sakai will look to pressure, crowd and bull Overeem into a brawl so he can try to catch the Dutchman with power hooks, uppercuts and crosses. Sakai’s intent and abilities are singular in that he must knock Overeem out in order to win this fight.

Overeem for his part will use movement and his three-inch arm reach advantage to punish the pedestrian power puncher as he attempts to make his way inside the pocket to engage. Part of that movement too will be laced with a vicious leg kick attack that Overeem is famous for. As Sakai becomes frustrated trying to engage with the movement and precision of the more refined fighter, he’s bound to begin overcommitting himself as he strives to engage in a brawl. This is where Overeem will be most dangerous.

In this five-round fight, I believe Sakai has one maybe one and a half rounds to find Overeem’s chin. If he cannot hammer him early then I believe Overeem systematically will cut this man to ribbons. I can even envision Overeem taking a spent Sakai to the mat for a submission.

This bout opened Overeem -215 and Sakai money has come pouring in creating what I believe to be great value on a savvy, competent and still top six heavyweight contender.If Overeem wins this fight, his opportunity to attain the last fighting title that has escaped him over his twenty-one-year professional career lives …with a loss, those aspirations are dashed.

Overeem -138

I’m ready to pounce NOW but this line is dropping like a hammer in a lake. I’m taking Overeem at his lowest possible price and I’ll do it prior to weigh-ins but as of now -138 is superb value!

The total in this fight is lines 1.5 Over -190

Alonzo Menifield -130 vs. Ovince St. Preux +110 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Both of these men were brought in to provide short notice fisticuffs a couple of weeks ago but on the day of the fight, OSP’s Covid results came back positive. This fight then had to be postponed until the powers that be decided it was OK for them to safely go, I guess.

A standard practice for my due diligence each week is dialing into fighter interviews. The information garnered helps a great deal in determining where these athletes are mentally, physically and emotionally approaching their respective battles.

Certainly, I’ll pay specific interest to OSP’s interviews to determine if there are any adverse effects from him being infected. Going into this week, my guess is no and that he is ready to fire or we wouldn’t be seeing them back on schedule so soon.

Just two weeks ago, these two were brought in to be the co-main event for Edgar vs. Munhoz so provided each was able to train in semi-normal fashion, I expect a competitive battle between two large agile, athletic men in a small cage.

St. Preux is a brown belt in BJJ, he’s thirty-seven and an exemplary athlete. He wrestled in high school, played football for the Tennessee Volunteers in college then turned his attentions to MMA. OSP is 24-14 professionally but 2-4 since 2018. His losses have only come to top end talent within the Light Heavyweight division as he does experience success against the divisions middle/lower tier.

Menifield, thirty-three is 10-1 professionally and a pure power striker who enters this fight off a shellacking at the hands or Devin Clark. The sculpted Menifield learned much in that loss and now gets a chance to compete with a fighter in St. Preux that has an advantage in experience and a more complete, refined fighting arsenal than he but who will not be nearly as explosive or powerful.

Menifield will need to be guarded early in his striking engagements as rushing into initiate his striking may leave him susceptible to OSP takedowns, something Menifield must avoid at all costs. The Menifield plan will be to work his way inside on St. Preux and wage war with him standing and from inside the pocket.

St. Preux meanwhile will want to use movement and striking only long enough to get the larger younger striker to the floor where his power and explosion are limited and where OSP and drop damage from the top position.

The extra two weeks will surely aid Menifield in preparation as it will for OSP provided he was able to train without interruption.

Two weeks ago, in this column I stated that it was St. Preux who should be the slight favorite in this battle. Provided he was able to resume normal training over the last fourteen days my feelings have not changed but it will take me deeper into the week to uncover that information.

Menifield opened -140 originally for this bout a couple weeks ago. This week he opened where we left off when their bout was postponed at Menifield -130 to St. Preux +110.

The total is 1.5 rounds Over -135

St. Preux is a target and will be confirmed pending weigh-ins.

Thiago Moises -185 vs. Jalin Turner +165 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This fight displays the artistry that can be mixed martial arts fighting.

Moises is singularly gifted as a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is awkward and inconsistent trying to compete on the feet as evidenced in his last bout but if he can grab a leg, an arm or a neck, his opponents will be overwhelmed before tapping out, breaking appendages or being put to sleep.

In that last fight Michael Johnson was cutting Moises to shreds on the feet for the entire first round. Moises tried unsuccessfully to close distance on the adroit Johnson which was the only way he could drag him to the floor but Johnson’s movement and precision striking kept him on the outside and in full receipt of damage.

At the beginning of the second round Moises looked like Ed Reed on a safety blitz and literally tackled Johnson before he knew what transpired. The astonished Johnson already on the mat struggled deeper into his opponent’s clasps and before he knew it Moises applied a heel hook and Johnson tapped. Fight over.

Jalin Turner is a very Michael Johnson-like fighter. He’s unusually large for lightweight and will hold distinct striking advantages against Moises should he be able to keep this fight standing. Turner is four inches taller; he’ll hold massive arm and leg reach advantage over his Brazilian counterpart and like Johnson he’s a southpaw.

This bout comes down to whether Turner can keep it standing and pepper Moises with strikes from the outside while moving and angling. Turner will not employ much kicking in my estimation as one grab of his long legs and this fight is over.

Moises on the other hand must find a way to navigate through Turners movement, length and precision striking in order grasp, clasp, rattle and roll with him on the floor. There Turner will be as outclassed by Moises as Moises is against him on the feet.

Fascinating matchup.

I hope you all enjoy this one as much as I do!

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

--updated 9-5-20 7:15am PT—

Overeem -160 vs. Sakai +140

Beware public dogs and Sakai is a public hound. Though the Overeem line has crept up a bit my position remains as early in the week. Overeem is too skilled for Sakai.

Overeem -138

I believe that Overeem up to -170 is a value

Menifield -140 vs. Saint Preux +120

OSP line is rising so be patient. He’ll have to weather hell in the first five minutes….

Saint Preux +120

Michel Pereira -113 vs. Zelim Imadaev -102

Please take the time to find the fighter stare downs. There Imadaev shows his hand big time. More importantly look at the reaction by Dana While. He is furious at Imadaev. My prediction is that after Pereira beats that immature ass he'll next cut Imadaev for this punk ass move.

Pereira -113

Romanov -150 vs. di Lima +130

Romanov brings Russian sambo and sumo wrestling with him into this debut. Di Lima is a blown-up Light Heavyweight but a durable tough one. Di Lima opens -120 for this bout and is now +130…let’s hope it does not rise much higher or I will have to add it as fighters who opened chalk but were bet to undedog status ARE a profitable position in the UFC!

Romanov/di Lima Over 1.5 +140

Hunter Azure -235 vs. Cole Smith +190

This was released early week just after opening as Azure -187. I advised using him in the second leg of the open parlay we have with Daniel Rodriguez -200.

For those of you who did not get the early move I would advise passing as this line has grown considerably however…. if you must then I would team Azure to Kelleher. Oh, by the way, they fought one another some weeks ago!

Rodriguez -200/Azure -187 +130

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN Smith vs. Rakic: KO on Koval - 8/29/2020

*For NHL releases please access the 'Hockey' tab at the top of this webpage

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the close of the most unusual sports August of modern times. Today many sports resume playing and competing in an environment of pandemic, racial tension and mistrust of our fellow human being. Almost reminds me of the 60’s and I’ll state that I am embarrassed that we’ve not progressed much further as a society than we have since then. Shame.

Each week it seems the opportunity for me to open my yapper about the UFC grows yet in each appearance I mention that my final set of wagers for business purposes will be found on the Saturday column I am writing now. The wagers I recommend below will reflect what I have been stating in each appearance with infrequent exceptions.

I have learned this schedule is most effective for me to get up to date pricing and all late breaking fighter information. Few surprises happen from fight day to the opening bell.

Below my column published Wednesday for VSiN then my updated comments and final releases follow. Please, be good to one another people!

--Let’s Fight--

--originally published 8-26-20--

Last week’s UFC event from the APEX center in Las Vegas may have been the most incident affected production ever. By the end of the night fans watched nine fights where favorites ran 2-4-3 and as many as seven of the eighteen fighters that competed were forced to fight on short notice or they were debuting athletes.

It’s becoming clear how arduous it is for the UFC to line up fighters/replacements for twelve (+/-) fights per card over the course of forty to forty-six fight cards per year under normal circumstances. Now add safety measures put in place to protect the whole APEX environment made necessary by Covid19 and the task becomes more complex. Last week many UFC production associates tested positive which only displayed how forward thinking and meticulous the UFC has been in ensuring their product be available safely and regularly.

As an MMA investor, these times have only reinforced my reliance of scrutinizing the weigh-in process prior to making final decisions on investments unless there is compelling evidence to move earlier. With late scratches/replacements the task of handicapping may become a bit more time consuming but remember; the result of that effort produces advantage, and advantage produces profit.

Last week I released two bouts, one, the co-main event got cancelled after the weigh-ins and the other was a miss with Austin Hubbard. To date UFC Favorites stand 173-84-5 66% which is about the average per year for the organization since 2016 though a few ticks up from last year.

2020 Insight the Octagon profitability: 23-15 + 11.00

This week both main events offer top fifteen ranked fighters looking to step over their opponent and move closer to a championship opportunity.

Alecsandar Rakic -310 vs. Anthony Smith +270 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Main Event

*This is a three round main event which is unusual, most main events are five rounds.

Eighth ranked Rakic, 12-1 as a professional enters a steep favorite. Rakic looked overpowering and explosive in his first four UFC fights against journeyman or aged competition.

Rakic is primarily a kick boxer/striker who has a blue belt in BJJ. His preference is to walk opponents down and finish them via violent kicks, elbows and fists. In this fight he’ll face an opponent of similar size which will be unusual for Rakic as he’s used to being the taller, longer, larger fighter.

Rakic unleashes 5.1 strikes per minute and is hit by just 2.4 per minute since his UFC debut but whether he may maintain that effectiveness against the elite in the division remains to be seen. Last December he stepped in against Volkan Oezdimer then ranked eighth in the division and was beaten via decision.

High output power striking and destructive kicking forces Rakic opponents to back up then succumb when he has a fight going his way. In this fight however, he takes a serious step up in pedigree of opponent.

Rakic’s adversary, fifth ranked Anthony Smith is a grizzled MMA veteran with forty-eight professional fights over the course of the last twelve years. Prior to his last outing Smith’s only two losses since 2016 came at the hands of Thiago Santos (185lbs.) and Jon Jones.

Smith, 33-15 will hold a vast advantage in experience as well he’s faced and had success against the division’s top fighters. Rakic’s ferocity and violence thrills not chills Anthony Smith.

Smith is durable, an effective striker and a black belt in BJJ. His wealth of experience and more complete fight arsenal force me to question the current line. Smith has grappling/wrestling advantages in this bout, managing this young hungry striker down to the mat for a dose of ground and pound is surely in the plan.

A major concern for Smith is that he enters this bout off a devastating KO loss to Glover Teixeira in his last fight May 13th. Many feel that he may be rushing his return after absorbing so much damage which I would often regard as a legitimate concern.

This potential unknown regarding Smith’s mental/physical condition after his recent drubbing is a potential explanation as to why the betting marker regards Smith as such an underdog but in my judgement it’s THE reason he’s in an advantageous spot Saturday night.

In the days leading up to Smith’s last bout, his family had a home burglary occur while they were all sleeping in the middle of the night. I believe that this affected Smith’s preparation for that last fight mentally, physically and every other way one could imagine yet few are mentioning it as a facet to Smith’s last outing.

He had to accost the assailant and struggle with him in their home then deal with the aftermath of children wanting to know why this would occur, a wife fearful for her children, his family’s safety and then fight preparation?

I find it reasonable to give Smith a pass on that fight as well I believe he has great potential to bounce off that dismal effort.

I do not concern myself with Smith’s fight condition or preparation for in this instance, I’ll give a fighter of his experience the ability to know his body and what he may ask of it. In fact, it’s plausible that Smith enters the cage more prepared for this fight than he did for his last. I believe Smith shows up highly focused against a most dangerous, powerful yet inexperienced opponent come Saturday night.

Once the bell for round one rings, Rakic, off a loss himself will look to take this fight to Smith immediately and attempt bully him from the start. Smith for his part must weather the furious first round from the ambling Austrian and take this fight into the second and third round where his experience, guile, conditioning and grit will make this fight compelling.

Rakic opened -330 so there has not been much movement in this line as of this posting.

The total is lined 1.5 over -140

Smith +265 1u

Over -140 1u

Both pending weigh-ins of course

Neil Magny -225 vs. Robbie Lawler +195 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

Thirty-eight-year-old Lawler was once one of the most fearless, unrelenting fighters in the game. As Welterweight champion, Lawler is best remembered for his total demolition of Rory MacDonald in an epic 2015 bout that in my judgement sapped the soul from both of these men as they were never the same after that epic confrontation.

Lawler is 1-4 since July 2016 and that win was against a fighter in Cowboy Cerrone who is really a 155lb fighter fighting up in weight. Lawler’s speed, quickness and mobility are waning but his unrelenting forward pressure and his willingness to engage remain THE constant. Lawler comes ready to throw down.

In this fight Lawler sees a familiar face. Neil Magny, in the early stages of his career trained with Lawler and company. Magny reflects on that period of time positively for as a young man he learned just how much he needed to grow and learn. This was a decade ago!

Magny’s physical advantages in this bout are vast. He’s four years the younger man, he is four inches taller and will hold arm/leg reach advantages of six inches. Training at ’Team Elevation’ in Colorado ensures that he is being coached and competing daily with THE top MMA athletes from all weight divisions and fight specialties.

In this fight Lawler will need to work his way inside of Magny in order to attack his body then work his way into making this fight a brawl. Lawler averages 3.6 strikes landed per minute but gives up 4.1. He’s not afraid to stand and toss!

Magny uses his size and movement well manifesting the two into potent strike offense and evasive defense. Magny only allows 2.2 strikes per minute. He will use movement to try to control Lawler on the outside then batter the brawler with strikes, elbows and kicks as the he lunges to gain his way inside.

Magny opened -190

Total 2.5 Over -210

Magny -140 via decision seems the most logical approach to me but for now this fight is a pass

Alessio di Chirico -120 vs. Zak Cummings +100 Middleweight (185)

Di Chirico is a thirty-year-old stand-up striker from Italy who until 2012 was playing linebacker in the Italian leagues. He is a power-based striker who is tough, athletic and durable. After an impressive couple of UFC wins, di Chirico has dropped his last two and will be looking to get back into the win column to restore his career.

Cummings enters the ‘wiser’ fighter by six years, he’s a well-versed fighter with a strong wrestling base and is 2-1 in his return to the Middleweight division. Cummings have slight reach advantages over the Italian but being the more well-rounded fighter and that wrestling base provide him sound advantage especially should he get Di Chirico (82% take down defense) to the mat which will be a key to this fight.

While Cummings can stand with di Chirico, he’ll only want to strike long enough to set up a takedown which will allow Cummings to transition to top control allowing him to drop destruction on the opponent. This is a good spot for a fighter who is highly competitive and chomping at the bit to compete.

Cummings opened -135 where I track lines and he’s been bet into what I believe is an advantageous price.

Cummings +100 1u

Pending weigh-ins

I’m fortunate enough to be appearing on the ‘Follow the Money’ program Friday AM at 6:30am PT on VSiN where I’ll solidify these positions.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

--Updated 8-29-20 7:20am PT—

Rakic -270 vs. Smith +220

The best price on Smith is now +225 and it’s dropping. Rakic opened -330 and when I wrote the above article +265 on Smith was splendid however all week I mentioned the benchmark as +220 or better and I maintain that position especially after Smith weighed in in the last fifteen minutes prior to the weigh-ins completing. So if your price is +220 or better then use him in the half unit wager I’ll list here but if he is not then I would pass on that wager. I took Smith early as mentioned on VSiN at +265 so I’ll maintain that half unit position with him.

Smith +220 or higher .5u

Over 1.5 is now -160 after opening -140 1u

but this remains my best bet with Cummings.

Di Chirico -135 vs. Cummings +120

Cummings +120 1u

I made arguments on VSiN Friday am for the following four deep dogs:

Smith +240 (at the time)

Lawler +220

Kim +260 now +250

Algao +250

all for .5 unit. The strategy there is to realize a 2-2 tally and bank profit.

I remain committed to those four underdogs but again, the Smith price is important so If you want to follow this approach you may need to jump the Smith bet now.

Last Cut: I may well add this later because I do like the wager and it was mentioned on ESPN’s ‘Behind the Bets’ with Doug Kezirian and Matthew Holt earlier this week.

Brady -420 vs. Aguilera +350

Two bighorn rams charging to meet in the center of the cage!

Under 2.5 +115

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC FN Munhoz vs. Edgar: Kickin it - 8/22/2020

*For NHL releases please hit the "Hockey" tab at the top of this webpage

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC Fight Night Edgar vs. Munhoz. This is a fight card combines late replacement fighters, cancelled fights and two welterweights scheduled to fight other fighters that could not make it to the cage…. They now face one another! For the reasons stated I’ll approach this card in a most conservative manner.

My main two wagers are contained in the below article for VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ magazine published Wednesday the 19th. All that’s changed in each is the price unfortunately. I do have one other addition.

--Let’s Fight--

--originally published 8-19-20—

Stipe Miocic’s victory over Daniel Cormier in last week’s UFC 252 was an epic five round battle.

My request for Moicic would be to take a couple months off then retire. By doing so he puts himself in ultra-elite company within the fight game. Few fighters throughout all of history have able to walk away while they were at the pinnacle of their profession. Miocic has the opportunity to time stamp his legacy with a ‘forever’ moniker and I hope to hell he considers it.

Here’s hoping Stipe has someone in his ear advising him about this unique opportunity to elevate himself to icon status within mixed martial arts. After all look at the two fighters salivating to compete against him in his next bout should there be one, Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones!

Cormier in his own right must be regarded as an all-time great UFC combatant. His sole error was thinking that he controlled time instead of the other way around and it cost him the legacy he so yearned to achieve.

Historians will recall DC as a two-division champion and surely in the conversation as one of MMA’s finest, yet he’ll be remembered as the chubby little guy that Miocic beat twice to claim his own greatness. It’s tragic that fighters never study their own history and the one that must now live with that is Daniel Cormier.

This week we remain at the APEX in Las Vegas for a card that I handicap as having almost five real bouts worthy of handicapping and another five that feature debuting athlete’s or are match-ups where the level of competition is more developing in nature.

Here’s a breakdown of a couple of this week’s bouts sure to present some ‘punch’ in the quainter confines of the 25’ APEX cage!

Pedro Munhoz -230 vs. Frankie Edgar +200 Bantamweight (135lbs.) Main Event

Fifth ranked Bantamweight Munhoz enters this bout as a winner of three of his last four fights. A close decision loss to current number one contender Aljamain Sterling in his last bout provided Munhoz with a dose of the championship environment so important for fighters aspiring to the heights of their division.

Munhoz is a black belt in BJJ and a polished kickboxer who employs forward pressure and constant leg and arm strikes to back opponents up. Munhoz wants to press forward and barrage opponents with power and volume. He’s active on the feet landing 5.9 strikes per minute but he is also willing to engage as evidenced by the fact that he absorbs 6.1 strikes per minute.

Munhoz wants to press and brawl.

Frankie Edgar is the eighth ranked Featherweight dropping a division to take on Munhoz. Frankie spent much of his career at Lightweight (155lbs.) before dropping to Featherweight (145lbs.) and now he drops again to 135lbs. which I regard as both aggressive and to an extent desperate.

Edgar is a wrestling-based warrior who has as many wins as Munhoz has fights. Edgar’s depth of experience coupled with the level of championship caliber opponent he has faced over the course of his fifteen-year professional career have earned the respect/admiration the mixed martial arts world.

That said, Edgar whose epic trilogy with Grey Maynard is now nine years old, is thirty-eight himself. After Saturday night, he’ll have battled the elite fighters in three weight divisions over the course of fifteen plus years.

Speaking of weight divisions, fighters older than thirty-eight years old in the lower weight divisions (125,135,145lbs.) are 136-172 or 44.2%. Age is hard on heavyweights but it’s devastating for those that need to utilize movement to be effective.

One would think there is little else for Edgar to prove yet for this battle he must endure the added stress of an intrusive weight cut at thirty-eight years old. I’ll remind readers that aggressive weight cuts not only affect the fighter’s cardio and energy into and during a fight but they also greatly compromise one’s ability to take a flush strike on the chin.

Edgar’s fighting style once employ deft movement and constant pressure wrestling. He strives to force, crowd, bully and maul opponents into the close confines of the corner of the cage before dragging them down to the floor when he has it going his way. The issue is that Edgar’s age has compromised his once deft movement thus giving way to more stand-up confrontations.

One unusual Edgar advantage for this bout is that he’ll hold size/length advantage over Munhoz who is a natural bantamweight fighter. It will be Edgar’s plan to negate Munhoz’s space early and fight the Brazilian up close and personal then against the cage and to the floor.

Munhoz, the younger man by five plus years must utilize his 81% take down defense to keep Edgar at distance and in a striking battle where Munhoz’s speed advantage will be noticeable. Edgar’s lost three of his last four, two via finishes so Munhoz will look to meet Frankie in the middle and touch him up from the opening bell.

Munhoz solidifies himself as a top five talent in the division with a pelt on his mantle that say’s “Edgar’ on it. He opened -225 for this bout and has been bet up to -240. Munhoz a legitimate favorite in my judgement.

The total in the fight is 3.5 Under -130.

Alonzo Menifield -130 vs. Ovince St. Preux +110 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Both of these men were brought in on short notice to provide the fisticuffs for this co main event.

St. Preux, a brown belt in BJJ is thirty-seven and an exemplary athlete. He wrestled in high school, played football for the Tennessee Volunteers in college then turned his attentions to MMA. OSP is 24-14 professionally but 2-4 since 2018. His losses have only come to top end talent within the Light Heavyweight division as he does experience success against the divisions middle/lower tier.

Menifield, thirty-three is 10-1 professionally and a pure power striker who enters this fight off a shellacking at the hands or Devin Clark. The sculpted Menifield learned much in that loss and now gets a change to compete with a fighter in St. Preux that has an advantage in experience and a more complete, refined fighting arsenal than he but who will not be nearly as explosive or powerful.

I sense a PhD. in MMA may be earned in this fight by Menifield for I regard St. Preux as the fighter who should be the slight favorite in this battle.

Menifield opened -140 for this bout to St. Preux +120. The total is 1.5 rounds Over -130

St. Preux +110

Joe Soleki -150 vs. Austin Hubbard +130 Lightweight bout 155lbs.

This fight was scheduled for earlier this year but cancelled so these two have had their eyes on one another.

Soleki has one win in the UFC against an aged Matt Wiman while his opponent Austin Hubbard is 2-2 and has been in with capable fighters. Soleki, twenty-seven is a wrestling-based fighter who trains in North Carolina. He’ll be taking a substantial step up in competition for this bout.

Hubbard is a power striker who struggled mightily against a couple fights back against Mark O. Madsen, a wrestling Buzzsaw. That fight is of importance because Hubbard who was tossed around by Madsen pretty handily that night has improved his wrestling/grappling game exponentially since that fight as evidenced in his last bout which was an impressive display in itself against a formidable wrestling talent.

So, the drama is set as the Soleki plan will be to work his way inside to engage in wrestling while the Hubbard plan will be to maintain distance and damage the pressing wrestler on his way inward to engage.

Hubbard trains at team elevation in Denver one of the premier MMA facilities in the country. His UFC experience and that fight against Madsen specifically I believe have prepared him to be able to thwart Soleki’s advances and keep this fight on the feet where his power striking will be too much for Soleki to endure.

Hubbard +110

--updated 8-22-19 6:45am PT—

Munhoz -260 vs. Edgar +220

This line may be getting a little out of hand. Gun to my head I take Munhoz ITD -150 but this fight is a pass.

Menifield -120 vs. St. Preux +110

This one has been percolating a little. I like OSP provided he can weather the strom coming for him in round one.

St. Preux +110

Soleki -110 vs. Hubbard +100

This line is percolating a bit also but it opened a pick-em and it’s slipped right back to that price. I’d rather have Hubbard +110 but I still believe he wins the fight and would use him as a pick or better.

Daniel Rodriguez -200 vs. Dwight Grant +175

I believe that the changes (3) for Grant have him a bit befuddled especially after going froma debuting fighter named born to an all out killer named Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a soft spoken kid that grew eating, breathing and living the fight game.

I’ll use an open parlay here first leg Daniel Rodriguez -200. Second leg weill be filled in a later UFC slate.

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