*please note that I'll update pricing up until puck drop.
--6-21-19 9:45am PT--
Texas Tech -140 vs. Michigan +120 Vanderbilt -240 vs. Louisville +190
In Today’s CWS action the unbeaten Wolverine’s take on one loss Texas Tech in an early elimination game ONLY for Tech should they lose.
Michigan will arrive totally rested with a full slate of fresh arms ready to fire at Tech. Michigan must try to match the intensity of Tech today and again, take the well-rested path into the championship series (should they win one of the next two from the Raiders here) as they’re likely to remain Tourney underdogs throughout this run.
I expect the Red Raiders are going to show up desperate and willing to avenge their game one loss to these Wolverines. They’ll do all they can to revert to their earlier season success against them rather than the result they earned last week. The issue of course is that this bunch of brainiacs from Ann Arbor are damn good and on top of that, they believe.
Tech is the sole remaining team from last year’s Tournament still alive in this one and for that I must add a slight premium as well they feel Dallas their game 1 starter wants another crack at this Michigan lineup.
My futures are dead and results are not what we want but there’s time. We’ll correct this early start on the ASAP. I’ll be back prior to first pitch
Michigan +120 (half)
--6-20-19 4:30pm PT--
Tonight a tribute to one of the best to ever do it. Mike Martin Florida State Seminole and true champion of men for life!
Over 9 -105 (half)
Louisville +160 (half)
patience the bulldog $ still flowing...
--6-20-19 8am PT--
Louisville Cardinals +130 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs -150: Elimination
One team packs up while the other moves ahead to attempt the near impossible..try to beat Tournament chalk Vanderbilt in two-straight. The grind is on. MSU will march a frosh to the hill (Ginn) while I have yet to determine Louisville’s hurler. Game time is 4pm PT so we have time to watch this line rise as I that’s what I believe will occur!
Here are Tourney odds updated (Caesars) this AM:
Texas Tech +1200
--6-19-19 8am PT--
Vanderbilt -180 vs. Mississippi State +150
Here’s another secret to the College World Series. Ace Pitchers often come here to get battered. Now Ethan Small for MSU pitched well in the Bulldog opener but he’s a rare exception and that outing does nothing to ensure any success moving forward.
The Bulldogs will try to gain revenge for their 1-0 loss earlier this year to Vandy when they march senior P Plumlee to the hill to tackle the Tournaments deepest most talented team. Vandy will use freshman sensation Rocker who pitched a dominant no hit ballgame striking out 19 Duke batters in his last outing. You know where I’m going here eh?
MSU is going to swing early often and with vigor today in great game conditions and I believe they’ll tee off on the freshman sensation who may find out that the Bulldogs are a different hitting team than Duke.
--6-19-19 6:50am PT--
Rain and turbulent weather are normal for June in Omaha and many of the southern and southeastern schools that visit here have a relatively easy time adjusting to the conditions of wind, rain, humidity and lightning.
Said conditions will force Louisville and Auburn to complete their ballgame from yesterday this morning at 9am PT (most wagers on that contest graded no wager) then we’ll get Vanderbilt and MSU in a Bracket II winners contest followed later this evening with Wednesday’s regularly scheduled game where Texas Tech faces Florida State.
So for today, the Vandy vs. MSU contest is scheduled about 11am PT and the winner there becomes the favorite to go on to win this Tournament so it’s a critical outcome for this Tournament. MSU is currently +150 which is tempting. Check back later for any releases
--6-18-19 10:10am PT--
The Michigan Wolverines claimed the catbird seat in Bracket I of the College World Series yesterday on the arm of Tommy Henry and a complete team effort behind him. Michigan now practices in the local parks for a few days until their eventual Friday night opponent works its way through the losers side.
In today’s contests we have another 2 n BBQ game this morning featuring Louisville and Auburn. Louisville opened -130 in this game which seemed low. Today it stands Louisville -220. Dog or pass game one no doubt.
Tonight’s contest seems more playable yet the line on that chalk, Vanderbilt who is a deeply talented ballclub has risen from the open of -140 to -180….just what I want to see.
Seemingly MSU could be as high and believing as Auburn is low and slow? We’ll pass on today’s first contest while we wait with the aspiration that there’s more value coming on the Bulldogs.
--6-17-19 4pm PT--
--6-17-19 9:15am PT--
They betting the Hogs (-190) like they know Tech (+160) is allergic to slop! Patience....let's see where this goes.
--6-17-19 6:45am PT--
Watching Auburn throw their victory away in game one against MSU was a sickening thing to endure and I’m not really feeling poorly for we Tiger bettors because in sport the game does not get tabulated until the little ‘F’ goes next to the numbers. No, I feel terrible for that young college kid who had helped fulcrum the Auburn lead then in the heat of fury made an error that will haunt the Auburn Tigers for some time.
I don’t see Auburn rebounding from this loss though we don’t handicap their next match-up until manana. Today we have an elimination contest at 11am PT featuring Texas Tech and Arkansas two teams who most thought would be tussling in tonight’s featured winners bracket game.
Arkansas -150 vs. Texas Tech +130
Arkansas will start freshman (P) Noland while Tech is considering their usual number two (P) Kilian though they also have a pitcher on their squad who transfered from Arkansas they may decide to toss in there based on a farmiliarity aspect. Seems Tech is thinking alot about who'll take the hill today. One thing to consider is that last year's CWS Champion Oregon State won the title fromthe loser's bracket. Time to grind hardballers!
Each of these teams has Omaha experience from last year so look for a highly competitive and close ballgame today. Of note: Arkansas beat Tech this year in Fayettville 5-1 and LY here in the CWS 7-4, these two have a little history. Both the Hogs and the Raiders played mediocre baseball away from their respective home ball fields this year so a cvlose conservative approach seems insured. For one of these storied College Baseball programs with Championship aspirations…. it’s going to be the dreaded…two n BBQ!
Any release will be posted here….
--6-16-19 13:50pm PT--
Auburn +250 (half)
--6-16-19 10:30am PT--
Louisville +200 (half)
--6-16-19 9:20am PT--
Two outstanding College baseball games were played yesterday and two capable underdogs displayed the pitching, fielding heart and hustle that each of the Omaha eight deploy in order to try to move ahead in this Tournament. As released the Michigan Wolverine’s (+145) pitched their way past a team they visited earlier this year who'd run them out of the barn in three straight. Michigan is a threat to bust some chops in this bracket.
So today we notice that both SEC squads are getting mucho attention. Vandy opened -200 and MSU Bulldogs opened -210. Currently both are -250 and the public has not presented their parlay cards.The strategy is to hold tight until we get close to the puck drop of the first ballgame (11am PT) as I view the Cardinal a capable canine at the opening number let alone where it is now and where it may be going.
Keep an eye on the site and twitter.
Happy Father’s Day to all Father’s out there.
--6-13-19 6:50am PT--
The College World Series field is set and play begins this Saturday June 15th at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Ne.
Here are odds to win for each of the eight teams with a short synopsis of each and finally Series releases based on my review of the numbers and understanding of this event. Individual game releases will be available here on VSiN later this week as well my webpage GambLou.com.
Odds to Win 2019 CWS (by bracket)
Bracket I: Arkansas +300 Texas Tech +500 Florida St. +1000 Michigan +2000
Bracket II: Vanderbilt +300 Mississippi St. +400 Louisville +800 Auburn +1500
Mandatory to handicapping this event is gaining an understanding of the bracket system for this Tournament (how advantageous it is to win the first two games), the nuances of the ball park in Omaha, and finally the analytics behind each team. Together this information assimilated by Ol” Uncle Louie and delivered to you today will allow you to make a deep run in this most outstanding Tournament.
Of major importance for any CWS Tournament Champion is a team’s ability to pitch, field, sacrifice, hit singles/doubles as opposed to home runs and finally score runs. This is a small ball Tourney park as it sits low next to the Missouri river and the wind blows directly into hitter’s teeth so teams that effectively pitch, field and play small ball succeed over unbalanced teams that rely on the HR and power.
Vanderbilt is superbly coached by Tim Corbin, their past experience in Omaha runs deep as they won title in 2015 and last year were eliminated by CWS Champion Oregon St. in Corvallis last year in the Super Regionals. By the numbers Vandy has it all and they deserve to be labeled Tourney chalk. The one hesitation I have for them is that they lack CWS experience as well the side of the bracket they are on has the other SEC in it.
Mississippi St. happens to be the other SEC team and they dominate the defensive numbers I track such as Team ERA (3.59 second best in the Tourney), WHIP, hits allowed per nine innings and fielding percentage. Supplementing those defensive numbers is the fact that the Bulldogs were in Omaha last year and competed well, they return a core of their group and march into this Tournament poised to complete a chore they began last year. Led by the top pitching talent in the Tourney in Ethan Small (1.80 ERA 90 innings pitched) MSU is a legitimate threat to win this Tournament and they arrive as hot as any team in the field.
Louisville is an underrated team in a brutal first round set-up. While they are hiding behind the bluster of the SEC let’s not overlook a team that’s been knocking on the door of this Championship for years. Louisville is as dominant by the numbers in all the categories already mentioned as MSU but they do not get the first game draw that MSU does (they play Number one ranked Vanderbilt). Louisville is a team that earned their way to Omaha in 2017 going 1-2 so there are some Cardinal upper classmen that have been here prior. Louisville is a super sleeper in this side of the bracket IF they can vex Vanderbilt game one. The Cardinal arrives high on belief and deep with talent. Contender.
Auburn is a team that played outstanding baseball late as well benefited by competing against the dynamic talent and depth of championship baseball played in the SEC. Analytically Auburn is the weak sister not only in this bracket but in this Tourney and I look for the Tigers (without a lick of CWS experience) to go “two and BBQ” which in Omaha means two games and out.
Arkansas is a team that I released prior to the Regionals (mentioned on ‘the Edge’ with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel) +1200. Arkansas was here last year and they were one game away for the Championship. Coach Van Horn used to coach in Lincoln, NE so we know the crowd in Omaha will be ‘hog wild’ over Arkansas. The Hogs numbers indicate that they are in the top half of their Tourney field in all important categories. They are focused and they are fortunate enough to play in the bracket with no other SEC club.
Texas Tech is a perennial Omaha participant as they went 1-2 in 2016 then 2-2 in ’17 before missing last year. Tech is a ‘hardball program’ and while their team is relatively young and inexperienced the pitching staff is comprised of players who have been to Omaha before though most of the talented arms are underclassmen. Tech packs offensive pop, can field and their past experience should help overcome their relative lack of effective pitching. If they can get by a dangerous Michigan club in the first game these Red Raiders could be ready to surprise.
Florida State will be a crowd favorite only because the fans in Omaha recognize true greatness when they have a chance to acknowledge it. FSU HC Mike Martin will retire this year after being at the helm at FSU for thirty-nine years. He’s toted this FSU team into this Tourney on many occasions (their last visit was 2017) and has won the Championship eight times since 1996. Unfortunately for FSU it is my opinion that analytically, statistically and emotionally this team did all they could just to earn their way here. This marvelous group of overachievers tore through Georgia and LSU to punch one more ticket for Martin in Omaha. As much as I love the story and want a memorable Tourney for Martin it’s my judgement that they’ll have little left for these other seven squads
Michigan could well be diamond in the rough. When handicapping this Tourney, I had already tossed this group of wily Wolverine’s out until I actually performed the research. Michigan has two of the top seven Pitchers by ERA in this Tourney. Michigan is fast, athletic and while they are completely without CWS experience they did manage to out pitch UCLA just to arrive here. Michigan is mispriced in my opinion and they present great value not only as a long shot in this Tourney but as a live dog against Texas Tech in game one. If they do win the first game you best believe Michigan could damage brackets in Omaha.
As mentioned, I released Arkansas +1200 prior to Regional action. Here are my suggested Future positions (one per bracket) based on today’s pricing (Westgate).
Bracket I: Arkansas +300
I hate to eat this price but they’re the only SEC team in this bracket and they were within one game of the Championship last year. They know the importance of winning the first two contests and they arrive with monumental momentum. This is for those that were unable to jump these swine +1200.
Bracket II: MSU +400
It’s really Mississippi State that I believe will be the one to beat in this bracket for the same reasons as Arkansas. They were in this Tourney last year, they pitch well, field/play defense and will install ace Small as the game one pitcher against an overmatched Auburn group.
An all SEC Final is my prediction
Michigan, this team is mis-priced. They can play baseball with this athletic roster and if they had a touch of experience, I’d really be all over them. This release is for game one and let me be on record as saying that Michigan’s team is worthy enough to not only be here…. but compete.
Michigan +125 as dog game 1
( 9-15-19 7:20am PT: current pricing Michigan +145 patience as it's cllimbing)
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