Preakness Stakes: 'the Dream' & Brutha Shue discuss

Preakness Stakes: ‘the Dream’ and Brutha Shue discuss

We are pleased to offer a conversation between my two horse hawks regarding the Preakness stakes Saturday.  Before that discussion however I want to publish a comment from ‘the Dream’ that I believe is a poignant one and one that must be offered to the public.  We are of the belief that other Professional horsemen feel similarly:

‘the Dream’:

I think it is worth noting that the 1st and 2nd place finishers in the derby were Hay Oats and Water trainers. With the increased security/testing I told more than a few people that this will be a test for Pletcher. On paper he should have dominated this race. It is obvious to me NOW that this factor is not only changing the game but must be considered before placing any wager.

I think it is a good thing that they are changing the game but these BIG races might become un-bet able to me.

The pace boggles my brain. Why Plaice Malice was urged to go 1:09 on the front I will never understand. Golden Soul had no shot if the pace is soft..

No excuses, on my end I am just trying to make some sort of sense on Saturday's results.

I am going to keep my money in my pocket unless I think I can beat these guys. Right now it is a guessing game.

Orb got about as good of a trip as he could and that should be to Joel Rosario's credit.

Wow!

Preakness Stakes:

Brutha Shue: 

Well my numbers are only good for the 1 1/4.  The $$ was to be made two weeks ago and Maryland betters are (typically) on target at picking the winner - i.e. chalk!  The nags from the Derby running are not even worth mentioning.  One newbie, TITLETOWN FIVE (20-1) has no chance.  The only thing cool about that horse is that he's part owned by ex Green Bay Packer greats Paul Hornung and Willie Davis.  And the silk colors?  Green and "taxi cab" gold - hello!  Saw him run in the LA Derby - got no shot.  See my pic here of D. Wayne Lukas giving Jon Court some instructions.  It didn't matter what Lukas was saying - it didn't help.  Another newbie is DEPARTING (8-1).  Trained by New Orleanian Al Stall Jr.  Won the Illinois Derby most recently and finished 3rd behind winner REVO and place finisher MYLUTE (8-1) in the LA Derby.  This is a good horse here.  And if you're looking for value here, he's my play at 8-1 - if you call 8-1 value.  And if I know Al Jr, and I do, he's gonna bring some New Orleans mojo with him just like he did in Illinois.  And these, are my  (DE) parting shots.

the Dream:

Please, no more Golden Soul references. If anyone picked that horse I am happy for them. As far as handicapping I would like to know why someone picked it. The pace in the derby was a gift for that horse (45 & 1:09) and the ONLY way he could have hit the board. Not to mention this is a sorry crop of 3 year olds in my opinion.

Anyway, Drew I too like Departing but I am skeptical. The days of bringing Mojo to these G-1 Big races seems to be over. As witnessed in last years Breeders Cup as Baffert went 0-26 at his home track and Pletcher’s No show in the Derby with 5 entries. Whether you believe it or not it seems that when there is increased security and or testing the big guys don’t show up. To top off that statement the first, second and fourth finishers in the Derby were Hay, Oats and Water trainers. (by the way if they would just put the Vets name who is treating the horse in the racing form it would help eliminate cheating all together)

I think Departing is a very nice horse it is up to speculation whether he was aided in the Illinois Derby with first time Lasix and extra sauce. I would tend to think NOT because the horse is a gelding and they have no reason to get impatient with this horse since he will never hit the breeding shed. His future is on the track only and there are plenty of opportunities for him to take down some serious races at age 4 and 5.

In my opinion there is only one way to play this race. Partial Wheel ORB and DEPARTING in first and second in the tri/super and use others underneath. As a back up ticket Key ORB on top and use others underneath for the tri/super. You can still hit both tickets and it will be fairly cheap. If Departing wins over ORB you still got a chance to hit meal size ticket.

The only problem with this bet is everyone else is going to do the same thing.

Horses to use underneath??? Who knows?

Oxbow was set up perfect I think you got his best shot last time. Is it good enough this time?

Golden Cents with Govenor Charlie in the race he should be stalking. I just don’t know if he is good enough even if he didn’t fire last time.

Mylute just like Oxbow he ran his race last time and couldn’t get there.

It’smyluckyday was a darling for many of the thorgraph fans since he bounced in Florida Derby. He will be under bet this time.

Will take charge had a bad trip in the derby and probably needed the race. He is a sleeper.

I am still working through it but this is going to be my approach.

What do you do with Govenor Charlie??

Brutha Shue:

I think DEPARTING (6-1) is gonna be bet down way below his current 6-1 odds.  I think this whole bunch is all gonna head to the front to try and get away from ORB (1-1) - that's the only to beat him.  But I do think ORB will win regardless.  I just don't see how to make any $$ here Dean.  Just not much value here - especially with only nine horses running.  And as of this writing, showers are predicted for Saturday in Baltimore.  And if so, then we all know who da mudder is - ORB!

So here’s my choice’s:

#20 WPS #4 (Departing):                                                                   $60
10$ Tri Box: 1-4-9 (Orb, Departing, Itsmyluckyday)                      $60
Total wager:                                                                                        $120
We be Swingin' it Easy!

Gamblou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

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Passion of Playoff Puck: "I walked into a..."

The Passion of Playoff Puck:  I walked into a…

“Tear drops on the city
Bad scooter searching for his groove
Seem like the whole world walking pretty
And you can't find the room to move
Well everybody better move over, that's all
Im running on the bad side
And I got my back to the wall
Tenth avenue freeze-out, tenth avenue freeze-out”

Springsteen

Yes Enthusiasts this run of home team chalk is in the NHL something we have never seen before in Playoff Puck.  As we have discussed, our decision to await the market correction may have been an error in thinking.  We must now begin to consider that perhaps this is the market correction. 

Let me explain. 

In our decades of postulating on Playoff Puck we have come to rely and even set our watch to the fact that Playoff Puck was a profitable pursuit and not an overly difficult one at that.  Play the road teams (usually underdogs) and profit.  It has really been that easy these last decades Enthusiasts.  Now remember any professional will need to select the correct hounds but the percentages of road teams covering and winning in past decades of Playoff Pucks has instilled into our DNA a road dog mentality. 

Well, this year may be the whuppin ‘Ol Uncle Louie has been deserving for the past 30 some years of profiting off of  Playoff Pucks.  We can’t really begin to explain this run of home team chalk any other way.  And while we are stubborn and set in our ways enough must finally be enough… we must attempt to ‘SHOCK’ ourselves into some form of adjustment because we are digging a hole. 

In Pucks we will return to the strategy of half unit plays until we can find a ‘W’ or two and try to bide some time while working to uncover value.  Our success thus far in the NHL Playoffs has been with the Futures so we may exercise those angles a bit while we bide time and try to trap a few tykes. 

We will release a Preakness Blog later Friday and a UFC release for ‘Swing it Easy’ Saturday but we will ‘freeze out’ on the Pucks for a day or so, do NO writing about it and if we find the gumption to release any Puck Positions we will do so on Twitter. 

Good Luck to all and ‘Swing it Easy’.

GambLou.com

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NHL Playoffs: We talk Home Chalk

Playoff Puck Round Two:  We Talk Home Chalk

We are officially into round two and Home Team Favorite’s stand 3-0 after three games.  Is it time to consider making adjustments in order to stop the madness?  The answer to that question is perhaps for some but “no” for ‘Ol Uncle Louie.  We simply do what we do and we know what we know.  Is it possible these home team favorites continue winning all the way into the Finals?  Anything is possible Enthusiasts so we may just plan on exactly that.  But no matter the trends our approach will be to uncover the ugliest, mangiest, mongrels available and stay our course.  We are certainly in no position to be able to return to our normal (and hypothetical) $100.00 per position until we see some positive puppy results though so we will bide time and try to obtain value anywhere and anyway we can. 

Rangers +115 at Bruins -125:

These two teams are dang near mirror images of one another.  I could see this series take seven games and seven OT’s to decide the survivor.  Two ‘from the goal out’ squads that have great minders, firm defense and some offense will tangle in another epic Boston/New York sports confrontation.  In the end will it be King Henrik’s territory to rule or will the Bruin’s again ‘smoke and mirror’ their way into the Wales Finals by ousting the hated New York Rangers?  Our approach to this series is game by game with road goats.  Surprising eh?

Rangers +115 (late breaking info makes us like these Rangers tonight in this position.  Let's go a full unit on these games tonight)

Sharks +135 at Kings -155:

Those with little concern about the Sharks are simply wrong to discount them and those that believe this series is far from over have some options if you are hanging with us on the Kings Futures and want to cover your risk.  We rarely try to cover or hedge our future plays before the Conference Finals but we would not argue with any that choose to cover their liability NOW by bellying up with the Sharks for the series +210.  We will not take that posture ourselves rather our ‘gut feel’ has us increasing the King stance because we feel the ‘Makers and the public both are slow to recognize their threat to repeat. 

Tonight though we will take the Sharks in what we believe is a very critical game for them.  The Sharks played pretty well Game one and there is little doubt they will bring all they have in order to escape being down 0-2 to the defending Champions of the NHL.  We will get the Sharks best effort tonight and we believe +135 is a generous proposition.

Sharks +135

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

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Blackhawk Wing Dinger!

Enthusiasts

Uncle Louie and crew taking in the 12:40 PM PST Diamondback game today.  We will provide insight on Game 1 of Hawks Wings later today.  We look forward to Original Six action (along with tomorrow’s series) with great anticipation.  With the history these teams have with one another count on something unexpected happening.   We are. 

Back this afternoon. 

Profitable Sports Gaming

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Playoff Puck Round. 2: No Pain no Gain

Puck Playoffs Round Two: No Pain no Gain

Good day Enthusiasts.  We can’t image any who are happier to say good bye to Round one in the NHL Playoffs than Ol’ Uncle Louie.  We struggled with our designated doormat dogs and find ourselves on the wrong side of profitability as of the end of this round.  Good news is that there remain three rounds and we plan on attacking these road pups like a hungry Lion attacks a three legged Zebra!  

GambLou Results Round 1: 10-19 -350.00 (standard $100.00 per hypothetical play unless otherwise noted).

Futures Plays in the Wales are wasted (Caps for Conference and Caps for Cup) but we covered all losses on the Caps with that cute little Rangers road rat play last night.  I’m telling you all road scum dogs are about to be recognized. 

In the Campbell the Kings +700 for the Conference and +1400 for the Cup are alive and we profited with our series play of the Sharks against the Canucks.  We believe in the Kings and feel that they improved in every game in the first round.  These Kings now realize that this quest for the Cup is going to be a much more arduous journey (if they are to get there) than last year’s waltz though the Western Conference but we feel they are up to the task.

Tonight’s Game 1’s:

Series: Senators +250 at Penguins -275:           Game 1: Sens +170 at Pens -200:  

Quite honestly we are astonished at these numbers. 

The Sens can play the same lightning fast Playoff Puck as the Isle’s.   Besides featuring fast feet the Sens play Pucks ‘from the goal out’, even though their goal scoring is an area of improvement.  We feel the speed of the Isle’s exposed the Pen D.  Take that potential and the Pen goaltending issues and couple that with a team from nowhere that is solid and playing their best Puck of the year right now and we could see a long tough series.  The Sens (a team tossed out mid regular season) seem poised to be a pestilence to these Pens.  Here’s hoping for some Senators success.      

Ottawa series games won +1.5 +118                     Senators +170 Game 1

Series:  Sharks +130 at Kings -140:                         Game 1:  Sharks +135 at Kings -145:

Nothing like out of the frying pan and into the fire for these Kings eh?  The San Jose Sharks are not your traditional Sharks who were bullies during the regular season and overhyped Marshmallow’s in the post season.  The new wave of young players and cagey veterans comprising this team as well their low keyed almost subliminal arrival into these playoffs has us quite concerned over the threat these Shark’s pose to our King dynasty.  Hyped in past post seasons the Sharks were fool’s gold but they arrive this year with more speed, more leadership, more toughness and a style of play that is ‘from the goal out’. 

The Kings slept walked through the regular season and the Stanley Cup wake-up call that was the St. Louis Blue’s proved a quite effective one.  The Kings play ‘from the goal out’ better than most teams remaining in this tourney and we must acknowledge that they may be beat up from the Blue’s series but they are returning Champs, super talented, supremely focused and still PO’d that few give them any chance to repeat save for this smelly old hockey glove.  As one of our favorite Twitter insiders told us today, “The Kings have what everyone else is lacking” and we buy that.  Interesting note:  The Kings are favorites over the Sharks in the series yet in both futures considerations (for Conference and for Cup) they come shorter priced than the Sharks do.  Hmmm.  Our angles are as follows:

Series:  Kings win Series 4-2 +480 & Kings win Series 4-3 +440 (half unit each)

Usually we remain very loyal to the road scum dog but in tonight’s Game 1 we will watch because our experience tells us that teams with more than three days of rest during the post season can arrive slow, sloppy and a step off. 

Good Luck to All

GambLou.com Profitable Sports Gaming

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