UFC +13 De Randomie vs. Ladd: Sacramento Bee-t Down - 7/13/2019

Saturday in Sac-Town for the UFC and we’ll get a comprehensive look at many mixed martial artists from Team Alpha Male as well Aspen Ladd will who trains just outside Sacramento. So the house will be vested on the Alpha Male fighters and Ol’ Uncle Louis will be looking for value as always within this fight card.

As is the case these last couple years we’ll begin with my VSiN article published earlier in the week on ‘Point Spread Weekly’ followed by updated comments (just as predicted in my main event breakdown) based on weigh-in results.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 7-10-19 Point Spread Weekly—

Last Week’s UFC 239 could not have been a more exciting action-packed fight card, unfortunately my release of Holly Holm to make it a competitive fight was wrong. Betting underdogs of +350 or better will result in losses on occasion but the important thing to remember is to remain committed to the process of uncovering value then gaining the best of the number in any sporting event. That’s always my plan and I’ll continue with an approach that is proven.

Sacramento, California hosts this week’s UFC on ESPN +13. The fight card takes a bit of a theme with Northern California’s ‘Alpha Male’ gym fighters sprinkled throughout the slate so understanding which fights those are (and the styles of each participant) will be helpful in determining potential advantage in those fights.

Aspen Ladd -165 vs. Germaine De Randomie +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Main Event

I’ll begin by stating how difficult it is to try to release value laden positions on Saturday fights by Tuesday noon deadlines! As a UFC handicapper, I strive to uncover value in underdogs while not being afraid to pull the trigger on any value laden position provided my research is comprehensive and the price earns market advantage.

Market advantage in this Main Event is currently nebulous as there are weight concerns to be aware of with each fighter. De Randomie, who at thirty-five years old is a large lady is dropping from Featherweight (145lbs.) to compete again at Bantamweight for this fight.

Ladd on her part has had past fights where she has looked very shaky up to and throughout the weigh-in process and though she looked fine on the scales in her last fight, her performance was less than dominant albeit against a live opponent. Saturday night, De Randomie will be a certain step up in class for the twenty-four-year-old Ladd and her chances for a victory become more reasonable if De Randomie is all she’s fighting and not the scale also.

So, Friday weigh-ins become critical in grasping every angle to this fight but here’s what I see playing out.

This is a Striker (De Randomie) vs. Grappler (Ladd) battle. De Randomie has proven difficult to take down and as long as she can keep this fight upright and, on the feet, she’ll be able to employ deft movement and kicks to maintain her spacing so she may liberate Ladd with precision punching. I see little chance of De Randomie finishing Ladd (of course pending some form of horrible weight cut) as her path to victory will rely on her movement and volumes if not overly powerful striking.

Ladd who trains in nearby Folsom, California based MMAGold gym, is not as skilled at striking effectiveness. She is the shorter fighter who will give up five inches of reach to her opponent and a prolonged stand up striking battle is the last thing she can allow this fight to become. Ladd, more a boxer brawler on the feet does have a purple belt in BJJ so her advantage must be and will be to grope De Randomie, drag her to the floor, gain top position and reign devastation on the Duchess.

My key to this fight is conditioning and the fact that is it’s scheduled for five rounds. De Randomie has been a full five recently (Holy Holm) and in a pitter patter stand-up striking affair we know she can survive twenty-five but with an unrelenting pressure fighter eleven years her younger I have my doubts about her ability to maintain distance.

Ladd on her part, must not allow De Randomie that critical space and distance. She must be unrelenting in making this a brawl only as long as it takes her to close distance then smother the taller woman and do it from the first bell until her smothering swarming pressure drains the energy and will from the thirty-five-year-old striker.

In order to place herself among the UFC woman’s Bantamweight elite, Ladd must arrive in perfect condition and make weight early in the process Friday morning so she can rehydrate and prepare to gruel for twenty-five minutes or fewer.

Monitoring

Mirsad Bectic -155 vs. Josh Emmett +135

Here the Alpha Male member Emmett is the underdog. He opened +155 so some love is arriving on the durable, wrestling based Emmett but he’s in there with a true killer. Emmett was actually a bit lucky in his most recent fight against Michael Johnson and preceding that was a devastating loss that Bectic has the pure punching power to remind him of. I may be fading Emmett here but will wait until there is more compression on Bectic before I release him.

Hall -110 vs. Elkins -110

Hall is a highly talented BJJ grappler and possibly the most one-dimensional fighter in the UFC. Hall has nothing if he can’t fight on the floor and I don’t believe he’ll be able to manipulate Elkins to the matt unless Elkins hammers him there.

I am surprised at this price as I do believe Elkins to be the more well-rounded, durable, tougher fighter and he’s also a team Alpha Male member who’ll fighting in front of his homies. The flow of dough to Hall may be because Elkins has dropped his last two but those were against fighters well more apt than Hall. Elkins is in a favorable spot to perform at his best Saturday.

Elkins -110

--updated 7-13-19 7:50am PT—

I was not whining when I wrote the main event breakdown in fact I called this weigh-in process to the ‘T’ if I don’t mind saying. Ladd looked as poor as any fighter I have witnessed on the scale yesterday. That said, she had a rough cut against Landsberg a few fights back and performed well. Youth and ignorance of the dangers of drastic weigh cutting surely escape her as she steps into what I feel is a set up fight designed to highlight a De Randomie vs. Nunes rematch scenario. Yep, that fight should draw and that’s how this organization rolls.

I look for Ladd to have more issues getting this fight to the floor than if she arrived fully hydrated and mentally ready to compete but after De Randomie’s warm up performance (last out against a wr4estler in Kaufmann) I feel that De Randomie has the experience and professionalism to go out tonight and keep this fight standing which is a key to her success.

WHILE Ladd was finishing her weak kneed Willy performance on the scale yesterday I released De Randomie +150. Hope you were paying attention as getting the best of the number is as important as anything in Profitable Sports Gaming.

I also like the prop “Fight starts Round 3” -145

Bectic -155 vs. Emmett +145

Both guys scare me. Bectic is a bit chinny and I worry about his ability to push hard for a full fifteen. Emmett for his part has the crowd and a recent back pocket knockout of MJ providing him momentum here but I still view him as potentially fragile off that devastating beat down he took from Stephens two back. Monitoring this one still…

Darren Elkins will have his hands full with this Ryan Hall. Hall who resembles more a male librarian than UFC stalwart is a highly skilled BJJ artist and he uses his nerdiness to allow opponents to underestimate him. Elkins best not, as we released him Darren -110 Wednesday (see above).

Mangy Mutt alert

Roberson -210 vs. Turman +200

Roberson, only 28 will hold advantage on the feet but we’ve not seen him navigate the ground. I believe he’ll be exposed there if only Turman can manage to maul him to the mat. Where this fight takes place is critical to who gets their hand lifted.

Turman +200 (half)

Last cuts and potential Twitter adds: Ferreira +140, Van Buren +100, Martinez +140 (fntsy sports)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 239 Jones vs. Santos: Seismic Submissions - 7/6/2019

Good Morning Fight Enthusiasts. This UFC 239 slate is loaded with talent but it’s also rife with heavily favored matchups. While the names are marquee the matchups quite honestly are not and that will affect the betting approach to the card. Just because the event is large does not mean the betting conditions are favorable so I’ll play a few releases already mentioned this week and a couple others will be made official below after my VSiN breakdown this week then my abbreviated synopsis of the Nunes/Holm fight which is featured in today’s New York Post.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 7-3-19 Point Spread Weekly—

Saturday’s UFC 239 from Las Vegas, NV is a highly anticipated fight card with two five round Championship bouts and numerous other high-profile matchups on the slate. In today’s Insight the Octagon we’ll take a look at each Championship bout.

UFC Favorites in 2019 stand 137-79-2 (62.8%) so while investing in underdogs is a goal, I regard obtaining value as much more important (see last week’s Ngannou release at a paltry -220). Betting value together with fighters that (as I handicap them) are prepared to present their absolute best effort on fight night are releases I’ll ultimately side with.

Jon ‘Bones Jones -700 Champion vs. Tiago ‘Marreta’ Santos +500 Light Heavyweight Title (205lbs.)

We discussed Santos a few fights back when he came into Europe and starched a game Jan Blachowicz, a fight we were on the wrong end of. Santo’s has had three fights at the heavier Light Heavyweight class now and he’s finished all three opponents. Fighters cutting less weight I believe can hold advantage over fighters that aggressively cut and Santos is but one example of fighters whose power, explosion and the ability to take a shot IMPROVE once they move to a more natural weight class.

Santos is Capoeira based with strong Muay Thai but also has recently gained his black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He’s an ex-paratrooper for the Brazilian armed services who has explosive power who’s always moving forward and aggressively launching spinning kicks, damaging leg kicks and power hooks. Santos’ punches can be wide and he often holds that chin out there as he’s pumping power shots. Santos ability to win this fight rests with his ability to keep this a striking affair, one fought solely on the feet. Though he is a black belt in BJJ Santo in no way wants this fight to hit the mat as he’ll give away dynamic advantage if Jones takes him down.

Jon Jones is really the prototypical template for the perfect human fighter. A world class wrestling base, a black belt in Gaidojutsu and a blue belt in BJJ are his decorations but height and obtuse reach advantages with both legs and especially arms (eight-inch edge for this fight) laced with bounteous bad intention are Jones combat superiorities and he employs them well in improving on his title of the most lethal pound for pound fighter in history.

The Jon Jones we see Saturday will be the most devastating Jones we’ve seen to date as the burdensome issues of his past and the affect they had on his ability to fight on any regular basis are gone.  Jones, who has fought three times in the last seven months has had the time to concentrate solely on his profession which I view as bad news for Santos.

There is a clear path to victory for Santos but Jones must contribute. Should Jones decide to stand and bang with ‘the Sledgehammer’ choosing to defeat him at his own game then it is possible Santos could touch Jones. But Jones is too smart to employ a strategy that would both give the challenger his most likely chance to compete as well affect Jones’ own ability to move forward into other highly lucrative opportunities.

Regarding this fight, Jones has said in interviews that he’ll relish Santo’s bringing the fight to him as this will allow him to use movement and his lethal striking/kicking game to counterpunch Santos as he charges forward but that’s only the set up.

It’s at this point where this fight turns as Jones will clasp onto the incoming Santos then force him to the floor for a comprehensive flogging. Santos on his part will make the takedowns easier by becoming frustrated at Jones tactics then choosing to rush inward to engage. Jones protect his body and his future earnings by utilizing intelligence and the world class wrestling Ace he holds up his sleeve.

Jones opened -850 and current pricing will force me to peruse other options in this fight. Jones ‘inside the distance’ or ‘Jones via submission’ seem very possible and could well pay a more valuable price…. but those props are not released until later this week.

Amanda Nunes -350 Champion vs. Holly Holm +275 Women’s Bantamweight Title (135lbs.)

‘Styles make fights’ as I learned from the late great Angelo Dundee and this fight cannot be handicapped effectively by looking at each of these fighter’s recent records which is how it appears the makers lined this bout.

Nunes is a beast (The Lioness) as she holds titles in the Women’s Featherweight (145lbs.) and the Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) divisions. Nunes is big, strong powerful and is versed in BJJ, Capoeira, Judo and Boxing. Nunes is undefeated in her last eight fights dating back to 2015.

In her last fight Nunes knocked out previously untouchable Cris Cyborg a fighter who had not lost in fourteen years and she did it at 145lbs which is up a weight class from her desired 135lbs ideal. Saturday, she returns to the Bantamweight division and I do wonder if she’ll struggle with the weight which is a something we’ll learn once the weigh-ins are complete Friday am.

Nunes is an extremely aggressive fighter who works off a powerful hydraulic jab. She is versed everywhere and, in this fight, it will be on the mat where Nunes will hold advantage but the question is will she use the ground to her benefit or will she and has she become intoxicated with her power? I hate to say it but I don’t trust Nunes and many of the Brazilian based fighters to be over equip with fight intelligence.

Nunes is a force to deal with but when walking down opponents she often throws wide telegraphing ‘Sunday Shots’ (another Dundee term) and forges forward too often with her hands cocked at her waist and her face held high and mighty.

Holly Holm is relatively one dimensional as she is expertly equipped at striking and kickboxing yet she can boast of little to no ground game so it is critical that she keep this fight standing in order to have any chance at winning.

I believe she’ll get help from Nunes here as I do believe Nunes is going to try to finish Holm as opposed to take the path Jones will, to fight the smart fight.  Also, I believe off that dominant performance against Cyborg that the adage “fat cats don’t hunt” may come into play here for Nunes now holds two belts and has been the belle of the ball for months now since that win.

Holm has the ability to employ erratic movement with precision kicks and strikes. She can force the fight forward as well fight effectively via the counterstrike. Holm can and has fought five round championship bouts previously and it is my judgement that Holm will give Nunes all she wants Saturday.

Nunes opened-350 and it remains -350. I believe there will be plenty of parlay playing public pounding Nunes as we draw closer to this fight and while I am not ready to release Holm, I do feel this fight is mis-priced and I’ll surely have more to say after having the benefit of watching the weigh-ins Friday.

NY Post: Nunes vs. Holm 7-6-19

(you can see it’s quite abbreviated form above)

Amanda Nunes is the Women’s Featherweight (145lbs.) and Bantamweight (135lbs.) Champion. She is big, strong powerful and versed in BJJ, Capoeira, Judo and Boxing. Nunes is undefeated in her last eight fights.

Nunes knocked out previously untouchable Cris Cyborg who had not lost in fourteen years in her last outing and did it at 145lbs. Nunes returns to Bantamweight and I feel the lower weight could be a factor for her in this fight.

Nunes likes to work off a powerful jab. She is versed everywhere but it will be on the mat where Nunes will hold advantage.  The question is after her last win will she use the ground to her benefit or has she become intoxicated with her power striking?

Nunes is highly aggressive but when pressing opponents, she employs wide telegraphing ‘Sunday Shots’ while charging forward often with her hands cocked at her waist leading in with her face held high.

Holm is expertly equipped at striking/kickboxing yet she has only an adequate ground game so it’s important for her to keep this fight standing. Nunes, brimming with confidence (overconfidence perhaps) will come out aggressively looking to knock Holly’s head off which may play right into the hand of Holm the effective counterstriker.

Holm must utilize her experience, athleticism, and constant movement with precision counter striking to frustrate Nunes and force her into mistakes. Holm’s fought five round championships previously and it’s my judgement that Holm will beat Nunes in a five round decision.

Holm +450 (half)         Over 4.5 Rounds +120 (1u)

--Updated 7-6-19 7:30am PT—

Holly Holm’s price has dropped since this submission but current +350 still worthy of a half unit

Yadong -210 vs. Perez +190

Perez off a loss to Stammen is a wily UFC vet with a solid gym and wrestling base. Song travels out of the eastern hemisphere to fight for the first time in Vegas no less. This Chinese fighter is going to be a star but tonight I believe he earns his PhD. In MMA.

Perez +190

(released+200  FNTSYSports Network 7-3-19)

Shahbazyan -570 vs. Marshman +480

Another young talent being thrust into the mainstream here and it could be just a bit quick for the Californian. Marshman is strictly a gatekeeper but he’s faced far superior competition and has a vast experience edge besides being a veteran of the Military in Wales. We’ll get Marshman’s best.

Marshman +480 (half)

All week long I have voiced a strong opinion on both Luke Rockhold -230 and Ben Askren -210 but have not officially committed to either. I’ve lost some value on the Rockhold price by waiting and Asken’s price has been stagnant all week much to my delight. I’ll use these two together in a rare parlay playing Uncle Louie puke for one unit which will return +112.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC ESPN3 Ngannou vs. dos Santos: Heavyweight Hammerfists - 6/29/2019

I attended the CWS Final series this week therefore I was unable to post a normal Main Event breakdown for VSiN instead opting to offer the below short synopsis of that fight. I’ll add a couple other releases I feel offer value from this Minneapolis fight card in the update section below.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 6-29-19 VSiN daily newsletter—

Francis Ngannou -210 vs. Junior dos Santos +190 (westgate) Heavyweight Main Event

Junior dos Santos is a grizzled former Champion who’s realized a career resurgence by utilizing movement, precision striking and fight IQ to win his last three fights.  While he’s shown tremendous discipline in those fights (against less than top heavyweight talent) it’s my judgment that fight plans go out the window once Junior gets popped. Dos Santos must maintain distance and try to take Ngannou deep into this fight if he is to have any chance of winning. If Junior at any time engages Ngannou in a stand-up battle, he’ll be finished.

Francis Ngannou is a top talent in the Heavyweight division. He’ll be the younger, stronger, faster and more powerful fighter in the Octagon Saturday. He possesses profuse power especially in his right hand and he will come straight to Junior to engage. Ngannou’s trained (his last two fights) extensively in conjunction with the UFC at their performance institute as they believe an investment in this man’s future is a worthy one as do I. 126

Ngannou’s shown great improvement on his conditioning and take down defense, issues for him in the past and Saturday he’ll dominate the older ex-Champion in impressive fashion to solidify his position as the top Heavyweight contender in the UFC. I believe Ngannou should be priced at least -350 for this bout so I regard current pricing as a value.

Ngannou -210

--updated 6-29-19 9am PT—

Menifield -265 vs. Craig +245

Menifield is an undefeated KO artist and Craig is an awkward submission specialist. This is the don’t judge the book by the cover fight puckheads.

Fight starts Rd2 -120 (half)

Roberts -275 vs. Pichel +250

Pichel opened a +165 hound in this fight and the money has flowed in mass on the younger, longer, striking based Roberts. While it’s unwise to settle in regularly with aged fighters in this instance Pichel’s experience and ground fighting advantage makes him a substantial step up in competition for the twenty-four-year-old Roberts. This may be the fight where Roberts earns his PhD. In MMA?

Pichel +250

Maia -170 vs. Martin +160

There’s a substantial difference in class of fighter here. Martin is a solid fighter but Maia is a legit top five in the division.

Maia Submission +150 (half)

Benavidez -145 vs. Formiga +135

Two fighters with career paths going in separate directions here. I still feel Joe can keep this upright and outbox the Brazilian but I’ll pass for now and see where this price goes….

--updated 6:15pm PT--

Joe -115 currently...I'll bite as I see UFC wanting Joe vs Henry rematch in future and any decision here seems steeped to the company man. Just sayin

Benavidez -115

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


CWS Winner take all: Vanderbilt vs. Michigan - 6/24/2019

--6-27-19 8:30am PT--

Final 2019 CWS Profitability

6-7   46.15%   +2.95u   +26.82 ROI

--6-26-19 3:10pm PT--

Vanderbilt -220 vs. Michigan +200       O/U 8 U-120

I tracked seven pitchers from the NCAA top 200 Pitchers by ERA participating in this year’s CWS.

Vanderbilt’s starter tonight, Hickman is #2 on that list with a 2.2 RS ERA and #7 is the Commodores Raby who pitched a couple of innings in game one (2.9 RS ERA). Raby as well as any number of drafted MLB pitchers on the Vanderbit team will be poised to pitch pea’s should they be called upon to do so. 

Michigan gives up nothing when it comes to the topping those two tossers as the Wolverine’s Criswell (who’ll come off the bench tonight) is third in this year’s CWS with a RS ERA of 2.76 followed by Kaufman (2.86).

So basically we have a couple of top tier MLB caliber hurlers FOR EACH TEAM going tonight (and a deep stable behind Vandy’s Hickman) as well the wind is humming from the south directly into the hitters faces at a minimum of 10mph and often gusting higher.

I see a tight defensive ballgame but in the end it’s my mind that tells me Vandy and my heart is motivating me to Michigan.

Profits thus far for CWS stand reasonable +2.2 so I’m unwilling to lose a unit on the Vandy series wager working (+125) therefore let’s just cover the outlay with a little half unit play on the Wolverines.

Tonight We bank a few pennies and focus on the UFC while I begin the intense Due Diligence required to dominate in the NFL...

--6-26-19 5:30am PT--

big ballgame later today....

--6-25-19 9am PT--

Michigan -145 vs. Vanderbilt +125 (series)      Vanderbilt -220 vs. Michigan +200 (gm2)

Michigan has single handedly been responsible for our profitability thus far in this CWS realizing a 4-0 CWS record all by the way, as mangy mutts. Tonight, will be no different as they manage huge momentum with a premium in price into TD Ameritade Park in their first attempt to win this Tournament.

Michigan comes back with Criswell as their starter tonight (it is believed) who threw seven pitches in last night’s ninth inning as Michigan is believed to want to save Kaufman for Wednesday (he’d be on full rest) if this comes to a third contest.

Michigan’s price is tempting, they seem destined for this title yet Vanderbilt is deeply talented and they’ve lost only two, three game series all year. Their pitching staff is deep, their hitters stacked throughout the lineup and they’re an experienced dominant baseball program.

It is my judgement that if they win tonight, momentum will completely shift and Vandy will be the believers besides overwhelming favorites to go on to win this title.

Depth of talent and an extremely experienced program against grit, desire and potential destiny is one tough decision….

Vanderbilt +125 (series)

--6-24-19 8:50am PT--

Most of my detailed thoughts will be aired today at 1:30pm PT on VSiN’s ‘The Edge’ with My friend Matt Youmans and JVT.

Vanderbilt -310 vs. Michigan +250 (series)   Vanderbilt -200 vs. Michigan +180 (gm1)

Vandy’s everything Michigan WILL be in the next decade but in order to topple mentor Corbin and the big bad Vanderbilt Commodores Michigan led by Corbin’s understudy for six years Bakich is going to have to defy heavy odds.

Vandy has 13 upperclassmen that have been drafted, they have pitchers on the squad that were drafted for MLB who have been unable to pitch in this tournament! To say they are deep, talented and rife with experience is to understate their position.

Michigan arrives the team that was one of the last five to make it into the Tourney and now they are one of two determining who’ll hoist the hardware.Tonight, we’ll take a group of overachievers who believe with ace Henry on the hill.

Michigan +180

Michigan must take the lead against a Vandy’s top pitcher Fellows who’s been dynamic the last two games but in hindsight can start slow based on past performances. Michigan well knows that its only marched out three pitchers since the regional began so if they want to win this series, they are in a must win situation tonight. For that reason and Henry, we’re going to again back Michigan as mutts. No series wagers yet....I feel if the Wolverine's can take game one we'll be able to catch Vandy prior to game two at a much more digestable price. 

Tomorrow we’ll reassess our position based on tonight’s result. Good luck to all and again hit me up on VSiN later for more detailed information release.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


KO'd in Carolina: UFC +12 - 6/21/2019

I’m travelling fight fans and will be unable to watch this fight card which is maybe the first time this has happened in like five years. Anyway, I’ll be enjoying Omaha nightlight and when uncle Louie hits the big O believe me people….there’s nightlife!

Here’s my releases for this card that I issued Wednesday on Fntsy Sports network w Gabriel Morrency.

Aguilar -140

(Aguilar dropping….patience gets you lowest price possible)

Ewell +100

Moicano/Zombie starts 4 +100

All halves


2019 CWS Texas Tech vs. Michigan Eliminator or Eliminated? - 6/14/2019

*please note that I'll update pricing up until puck drop.

--6-21-19 9:45am PT--

Texas Tech -140 vs. Michigan +120       Vanderbilt -240 vs. Louisville +190

In Today’s CWS action the unbeaten Wolverine’s take on one loss Texas Tech in an early elimination game ONLY for Tech should they lose. 

Michigan will arrive totally rested with a full slate of fresh arms ready to fire at Tech. Michigan must try to match the intensity of Tech today and again, take the well-rested path into the championship series (should they win one of the next two from the Raiders here) as they’re likely to remain Tourney underdogs throughout this run. 

I expect the Red Raiders are going to show up desperate and willing to avenge their game one loss to these Wolverines. They’ll do all they can to revert to their earlier season success against them rather than the result they earned last week. The issue of course is that this bunch of brainiacs from Ann Arbor are damn good and on top of that, they believe.

Tech is the sole remaining team from last year’s Tournament still alive in this one and for that I must add a slight premium as well they feel Dallas their game 1 starter wants another crack at this Michigan lineup.

My futures are dead and results are not what we want but there’s time. We’ll correct this early start on the ASAP. I’ll be back prior to first pitch

Michigan +120 (half)

 

--6-20-19 4:30pm PT--

Tonight a tribute to one of the best to ever do it. Mike Martin Florida State Seminole and true champion of men for life!

Over 9 -105 (half)

Louisville +160 (half) 

patience the bulldog $ still flowing...

--6-20-19 8am PT--

Louisville Cardinals +130 vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs -150: Elimination

One team packs up while the other moves ahead to attempt the near impossible..try to beat Tournament chalk Vanderbilt in two-straight. The grind is on. MSU will march a frosh to the hill (Ginn) while I have yet to determine Louisville’s hurler. Game time is 4pm PT so we have time to watch this line rise as I that’s what I believe will occur!

Here are Tourney odds updated (Caesars) this AM:

Vandy -180

Michigan +275

MSU +700

Texas Tech +1200

Louisville +2000

--6-19-19 8am PT--

Vanderbilt -180 vs. Mississippi State +150

Here’s another secret to the College World Series. Ace Pitchers often come here to get battered. Now Ethan Small for MSU pitched well in the Bulldog opener but he’s a rare exception and that outing does nothing to ensure any success moving forward.

The Bulldogs will try to gain revenge for their 1-0 loss earlier this year to Vandy when they march senior P Plumlee to the hill to tackle the Tournaments deepest most talented team. Vandy will use freshman sensation Rocker who pitched a dominant no hit ballgame striking out 19 Duke batters in his last outing. You know where I’m going here eh?

MSU is going to swing early often and with vigor today in great game conditions and I believe they’ll tee off on the freshman sensation who may find out that the Bulldogs are a different hitting team than Duke.

MSU +150

--6-19-19 6:50am PT--

Rain and turbulent weather are normal for June in Omaha and many of the southern and southeastern schools that visit here have a relatively easy time adjusting to the conditions of wind, rain, humidity and lightning.

Said conditions will force Louisville and Auburn to complete their ballgame from yesterday this morning at 9am PT (most wagers on that contest graded no wager) then we’ll get Vanderbilt and MSU in a Bracket II winners contest followed later this evening with Wednesday’s regularly scheduled game where Texas Tech faces Florida State.

So for today, the Vandy vs. MSU contest is scheduled about 11am PT and the winner there becomes the favorite to go on to win this Tournament so it’s a critical outcome for this Tournament. MSU is currently +150 which is tempting. Check back later for any releases

--6-18-19 10:10am PT--

The Michigan Wolverines claimed the catbird seat in Bracket I of the College World Series yesterday on the arm of Tommy Henry and a complete team effort behind him. Michigan now practices in the local parks for a few days until their eventual Friday night opponent works its way through the losers side.

In today’s contests we have another 2 n BBQ game this morning featuring Louisville and Auburn. Louisville opened -130 in this game which seemed low. Today it stands Louisville -220. Dog or pass game one no doubt.

Tonight’s contest seems more playable yet the line on that chalk, Vanderbilt who is a deeply talented ballclub has risen from the open of -140 to -180….just what I want to see.

Seemingly MSU could be as high and believing as Auburn is low and slow? We’ll pass on today’s first contest while we wait with the aspiration that there’s more value coming on the Bulldogs.  

--6-17-19 4pm PT--

Michigan +145

--6-17-19 9:15am PT--

They betting the Hogs (-190) like they know Tech (+160) is allergic to slop! Patience....let's see where this goes.

--6-17-19 6:45am PT--

Watching Auburn throw their victory away in game one against MSU was a sickening thing to endure and I’m not really feeling poorly for we Tiger bettors because in sport the game does not get tabulated until the little ‘F’ goes next to the numbers. No, I feel terrible for that young college kid who had helped fulcrum the Auburn lead then in the heat of fury made an error that will haunt the Auburn Tigers for some time.

I don’t see Auburn rebounding from this loss though we don’t handicap their next match-up until manana. Today we have an elimination contest at 11am PT featuring Texas Tech and Arkansas two teams who most thought would be tussling in tonight’s featured winners bracket game.

Arkansas -150 vs. Texas Tech +130

Arkansas will start freshman (P) Noland while Tech is considering their usual number two (P) Kilian though they also have a pitcher on their squad who transfered from Arkansas they may decide to toss in there based on a farmiliarity aspect. Seems Tech is thinking alot about who'll take the hill today. One thing to consider is that last year's CWS Champion Oregon State won the title fromthe loser's bracket. Time to grind hardballers!

Each of these teams has Omaha experience from last year so look for a highly competitive and close ballgame today. Of note: Arkansas beat Tech this year in Fayettville 5-1 and LY here in the CWS 7-4, these two have a little history. Both the Hogs and the Raiders played mediocre baseball away from their respective home ball fields this year so a cvlose conservative approach seems insured. For one of these storied College Baseball programs with Championship aspirations…. it’s going to be the dreaded…two n BBQ!

Any release will be posted here….

--6-16-19 13:50pm PT--

Auburn +250 (half)

--6-16-19 10:30am PT--

Louisville +200 (half)

--6-16-19 9:20am PT--

Two outstanding College baseball games were played yesterday and two capable underdogs displayed the pitching, fielding heart and hustle that each of the Omaha eight deploy in order to try to move ahead in this Tournament. As released the Michigan Wolverine’s (+145) pitched their way past a team they visited earlier this year who'd  run them out of the barn in three straight. Michigan is a threat to bust some chops in this bracket.

So today we notice that both SEC squads are getting mucho attention. Vandy opened -200 and MSU Bulldogs opened -210. Currently both are -250 and the public has not presented their parlay cards.The strategy is to hold tight until we get close to the puck drop of the first ballgame (11am PT) as I view the Cardinal a capable canine at the opening number let alone where it is now and where it may be going.
Keep an eye on the site and twitter.

Happy Father’s Day to all Father’s out there.   

--6-13-19 6:50am PT--

The College World Series field is set and play begins this Saturday June 15th at TD Ameritrade Park in Omaha, Ne.

Here are odds to win for each of the eight teams with a short synopsis of each and finally Series releases based on my review of the numbers and understanding of this event. Individual game releases will be available here on VSiN later this week as well my webpage GambLou.com.

Odds to Win 2019 CWS (by bracket)

Bracket I:  Arkansas +300 Texas Tech +500 Florida St. +1000 Michigan +2000

Bracket II: Vanderbilt +300   Mississippi St. +400 Louisville +800 Auburn +1500

The Tournament

Mandatory to handicapping this event is gaining an understanding of the bracket system for this Tournament (how advantageous it is to win the first two games), the nuances of the ball park in Omaha, and finally the analytics behind each team. Together this information assimilated by Ol” Uncle Louie and delivered to you today will allow you to make a deep run in this most outstanding Tournament.

Of major importance for any CWS Tournament Champion is a team’s ability to pitch, field, sacrifice, hit singles/doubles as opposed to home runs and finally score runs. This is a small ball Tourney park as it sits low next to the Missouri river and the wind blows directly into hitter’s teeth so teams that effectively pitch, field and play small ball succeed over unbalanced teams that rely on the HR and power.

Bracket I

Vanderbilt is superbly coached by Tim Corbin, their past experience in Omaha runs deep as they won title in 2015 and last year were eliminated by CWS Champion Oregon St. in Corvallis last year in the Super Regionals. By the numbers Vandy has it all and they deserve to be labeled Tourney chalk. The one hesitation I have for them is that they lack CWS experience as well the side of the bracket they are on has the other SEC in it.

Mississippi St. happens to be the other SEC team and they dominate the defensive numbers I track such as Team ERA (3.59 second best in the Tourney), WHIP, hits allowed per nine innings and fielding percentage. Supplementing those defensive numbers is the fact that the Bulldogs were in Omaha last year and competed well, they return a core of their group and march into this Tournament poised to complete a chore they began last year. Led by the top pitching talent in the Tourney in Ethan Small (1.80 ERA 90 innings pitched) MSU is a legitimate threat to win this Tournament and they arrive as hot as any team in the field.

Louisville is an underrated team in a brutal first round set-up. While they are hiding behind the bluster of the SEC let’s not overlook a team that’s been knocking on the door of this Championship for years. Louisville is as dominant by the numbers in all the categories already mentioned as MSU but they do not get the first game draw that MSU does (they play Number one ranked Vanderbilt). Louisville is a team that earned their way to Omaha in 2017 going 1-2 so there are some Cardinal upper classmen that have been here prior. Louisville is a super sleeper in this side of the bracket IF they can vex Vanderbilt game one. The Cardinal arrives high on belief and deep with talent. Contender.

Auburn is a team that played outstanding baseball late as well benefited by competing against the dynamic talent and depth of championship baseball played in the SEC. Analytically Auburn is the weak sister not only in this bracket but in this Tourney and I look for the Tigers (without a lick of CWS experience) to go “two and BBQ” which in Omaha means two games and out.

Bracket II

Arkansas is a team that I released prior to the Regionals (mentioned on ‘the Edge’ with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel) +1200. Arkansas was here last year and they were one game away for the Championship. Coach Van Horn used to coach in Lincoln, NE so we know the crowd in Omaha will be ‘hog wild’ over Arkansas. The Hogs numbers indicate that they are in the top half of their Tourney field in all important categories. They are focused and they are fortunate enough to play in the bracket with no other SEC club.

Texas Tech is a perennial Omaha participant as they went 1-2 in 2016 then 2-2 in ’17 before missing last year. Tech is a ‘hardball program’ and while their team is relatively young and inexperienced the pitching staff is comprised of players who have been to Omaha before though most of the talented arms are underclassmen. Tech packs offensive pop, can field and their past experience should help overcome their relative lack of effective pitching. If they can get by a dangerous Michigan club in the first game these Red Raiders could be ready to surprise.

Florida State will be a crowd favorite only because the fans in Omaha recognize true greatness when they have a chance to acknowledge it. FSU HC Mike Martin will retire this year after being at the helm at FSU for thirty-nine years. He’s toted this FSU team into this Tourney on many occasions (their last visit was 2017) and has won the Championship eight times since 1996. Unfortunately for FSU it is my opinion that analytically, statistically and emotionally this team did all they could just to earn their way here. This marvelous group of overachievers tore through Georgia and LSU to punch one more ticket for Martin in Omaha. As much as I love the story and want a memorable Tourney for Martin it’s my judgement that they’ll have little left for these other seven squads 

Michigan could well be diamond in the rough. When handicapping this Tourney, I had already tossed this group of wily Wolverine’s out until I actually performed the research. Michigan has two of the top seven Pitchers by ERA in this Tourney. Michigan is fast, athletic and while they are completely without CWS experience they did manage to out pitch UCLA just to arrive here. Michigan is mispriced in my opinion and they present great value not only as a long shot in this Tourney but as a live dog against Texas Tech in game one. If they do win the first game you best believe Michigan could damage brackets in Omaha.

Releases

As mentioned, I released Arkansas +1200 prior to Regional action. Here are my suggested Future positions (one per bracket) based on today’s pricing (Westgate).

Bracket I: Arkansas +300

I hate to eat this price but they’re the only SEC team in this bracket and they were within one game of the Championship last year. They know the importance of winning the first two contests and they arrive with monumental momentum. This is for those that were unable to jump these swine +1200.

Bracket II: MSU +400

It’s really Mississippi State that I believe will be the one to beat in this bracket for the same reasons as Arkansas. They were in this Tourney last year, they pitch well, field/play defense and will install ace Small as the game one pitcher against an overmatched Auburn group.

An all SEC Final is my prediction

Michigan, this team is mis-priced. They can play baseball with this athletic roster and if they had a touch of experience, I’d really be all over them. This release is for game one and let me be on record as saying that Michigan’s team is worthy enough to not only be here…. but compete.

Michigan +125 as dog game 1 

( 9-15-19 7:20am PT: current pricing Michigan +145 patience as it's cllimbing)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final: Revenge 49 years in the making - 6/13/2019

* For College World Series Intelligence please access the 'College World Series' tab on the top of this webpage

I cannot be more content for the fine City of St. Louis and all their fans for a mission competed which took forty-nine years in the making and was fueled by five decades of frustration and delivered by a group with a singlemindedness of purpose, commitment to team and love for their community.  

For two years now I have spoken about ‘the Hockey gods’ and if you do not believe in them then you are missing a sizable portion of what it is to handicap a passion sport like Hockey playoffs puckheads.

Let’s account!

2019 NHL Playoffs: 41-41   50%   +17.56u  +23.89 ROI

It’s business...

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final Boston vs. St. Louis: Seventh Heaven - 6/9/2019

--6-12-19 9:50am PT--

The Stanley Cup Trophy will be hoisted in Boston tonight, the only thing we need to sweat out is whom it is that will hoist.

Our final series wagers reflect a half unit win should the Bruins prevail and a 2.9 unit profit should the Blues add one more win to their already impressive 9-3 road result in this year’s Tournament. I learned many years ago that stubborn betting was losing betting which is why I fight my inner competitive nature to just fire away on the Blues this evening. My guy say's fire but my years in this business have taught me to take the money and run! We’ll grab profit from this year’s Tourney and move forward.

There’s nothing remaining to say except to congratulate each Organization /team for making this a terrifically competitive seven game series. My respect to all the athlete’s in this year’s Tourney and especially the two stellar squads in this year’s Final series.

--6-9-19 10:30am PT--

--updated 4:50pm PT--

I have always expressed the need to use patience and gain every penny of value on each wager and the Blues price and Under are both gaining in value. It's business.

St. Louis -118 vs. Bruins +108                  Total 5 O-160                 Puckline Blues -1.5 +250                              

Series Blues -280/Bruins +250

Any pressure in tonight’s Stanly Cup Final game six cannot lie with ‘the little engine that could’ Blues as they’ve been listening to how poorly matched they are while playing from behind in the series against a team everyone claimed was far superior to them. Today they play a game for everything with the mindset of believers.

Outside of St. Louis few gave this team a chance but the few that did understood how deep seeded passion and determination can unify a group bonded together in the chains of commitment for a single purpose.

Pressure you ask? No F’ing way…instead look to the fulfillment of a lifelong dream for each player who selflessly have put themselves in position to free a tremendous hockey city of its secondary moniker and elevate it to the stature an original twelve hockey city should enjoy.

As I view it puckheads, each minute that passes the pressure mounts on the Bruins for they are the team trying to overcome past Cup disappointment (2013 Blackhawks) and injuries to their starting roster while at the same time trying to protect and contribute to the ‘City of Champions’ thing that is as tangible to them (organization, players and fans) by way of pressure as the frustration of not being a Championship franchise has been for the Blues for FIFTY YEARS.

I believe the Blue’s close this series out today and I believe they must. The threat of going back to Boston is real (for them) but the focus today is pinpoint precise for they aren’t thinking about getting on any plane puckheads.

Tonight the Blues will ratchet up the intensity and physicality against a Bruin team that is thin in depth, battered on defense and arriving physically/mentally depleted yet fueled by guile, grit and grizzle. Boston’s championship pride won’t be enough to overcome a whuppin that’s been fifty years in the making.

Revenge is best served …. on ice!

Those who follow me understand that I take a purely bottom line approach to all futures and series wagers. Accruing modest profit on a regular basis (as well minimizing loss) is how I operate my gaming business. Those who wish to ride the Blues may choose that route. I will not as I’ll take the Bruins +250 series position for one unit. This provides me the freedom to be able to make a half unit wager or two on tonight’s tilt knowing that this season has been stallar and tonight I hope to sitness the liberation of a fine hockey City.

Blues -1.5 +250 (half)       Under 5 +140 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 238 Moraes vs. Cejudo: Toe to toe in Chi-ca-go! - 6/8/2019

Toe to toe in Chi-ca-go today fight Enthusiasts as UFC 238 is stacked with great fights and mangy mutts. I offered readers a pretty poor performance last week so I am happy to be able to turn this around quickly and offer the following potential profitable pups.

We’ll start with the Main event breakdown published Wednesday on VSiN’s PSW.  I’ll give a shout out to the VSiN crew for allowing me the platform for my UFC thoughts and the unexpected residual I have gained from submitting these breakdowns so early each week. Submitting fight breakdowns on Tuesday prior to Saturday events has been a positive practice though it is difficult formulating final thoughts without having viewed the weigh-ins.

Of course when playing pooches in the UFC (and in most any sports) it’s a good practice to wait until the last moment to wager in order to capture every cent of value on underdogs.  Capturing the best of the number in any gaming endeavor is as critical to a bettor’s success as anything else they may do.  I strive to obtain value in every release made.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 6-5-19 Point Spread Weekly—

UFC 238 comes live from Chicago, IL. Saturday with two title fights, a major Lightweight battle (Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone) and numerous other highly competitive match-ups. Fight fans are sure to enjoy the combat as there is diverse talent scattered throughout the card ranging from 115lb. female fatales to 265lb. Heavyweight ho-downs.

Marlon Moraes -120 vs. Henry Cejudo +100 Bantamweight Title Fight (135lbs.)

For this MMA enthusiast Saturday’s main event is the most anticipated confrontation of the year. Not only are these two world class competitors but they each bring a diverse and highly effective fighting arsenal into the Octagon for this title fight.

Henry Cejudo is THE most adroit and capable wrestler on the UFC roster. He is unusually competitive and without question is a pure bottom line winner. The dominant mindset established by his Olympic wrestling capability/success is the basis for vast improvements in his boxing/striking. He is mentally driven to excel as proven by his past accomplishments. Cejudo has displayed the quickness, speed and agility to dominate at Flyweight (125lbs.) so it will be most interesting to determine if he can transfer those traits into advantage despite moving up ten pounds to compete for this Bantamweight title. 

Kryptonite to the BJJ specialized fighter is world class wrestling, Cejudo in my judgement MUST find a way to crowd, smother and eventually clinch/grope/wrestle Moraes. He must not fall into the belief that his striking has come so far (because of the impressive result against Dillashaw) that he will be able to stand with Moraes and compete effectively in this fight which would be a huge mistake because his striking has not come THAT far!

Both men rely heavily on their legs in fights, for Cejudo he utilizes his legs to impede/trip opponents while in the clinch allowing him to slam the competitor on the floor. Once Henry gets most opponents to the floor he dominates and it’s in his best interest to make this a wrestling match at all costs. Cejudo has the Championship mindset, the wrestling base and speed/quickness but he moves up in weight and fights a legitimate Championship caliber opponent.

Marlon Moraes is a destructive fighting force highly decorated with black belts in Muay Thai (striking) and BJJ which is more a grappling ground expertise. Moraes upon his arrival to the UFC has fought and dominated only top-rated foes in the Bantamweight division. In each fight he has looked absolutely dominant (Moraes actually lost a split decision to Rafael Assuncao in his UFC debut then in his last fight gained revenge by submitting the perennial Bantamweight contender).

Moraes use of legs involves destructive blunt force trauma as he utilizes precision placed leg, body and head kicks to injure opponents while mixing powerful hand/elbow striking. His feinting and head movement allow him to confound and instill hesitation into opponents which is the prelude to those unrelenting strikes arriving from any angle and level.

In a recent fight, Kevin Lee who stepped up in weight to fight Rafael Dos Anjos was unable to bring appropriate energy into the championship rounds and it was because he had a difficult time managing the adjusted weight and fighting a man with more mass.

I believe Cejudo just like Lee will toil, not as much by fighting at the higher weight but by competing against a guy that has fought against other legitimate 135ers (we know these guys weigh about 153-155lbs. by the time they ring the bell) and dominated.

Moraes has been yearning for this chance his whole career. He’ll have size, reach and power advantages as well the advantage of training in the same camp as wrestling great Frankie Edgar & Co. where he can work on being wrestled daily.

Moraes opened -175 for this fight in faraway places and Cejudo money has dropped that price to -120. I mentioned on a recent appearance of “The Edge’ with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel that Moraes (at the time -115) was an absolute release so I’ll remain committed to Moraes.

Moraes -120

Valentina Shevchenko -1500 vs. Jessica Eye +850 Woman’s Flyweight title (125lbs.)

Nothing exemplifies how shallow the talent is in each of the Women’s divisions of the UFC like the spread on this fight. Shevchenko will hold this title as long as she wants to for she’s far superior in this weight class to anyone. She’s technically sound, fast and can fight for five hours let alone five rounds but she packs little power and must impose her dominance via time and volume not power and might.

Pass

I’ll have further breakdown’s and releases later in the week especially an opinion on the Ferguson -150 vs. Cerrone +130 bout on GambLou.com.

Last week Ilir Latifi, Volkan Oezdemir’s opponent had to pull out of the fight via injury so we’ll plan on attacking this main event knowing Moraes -120 is a value opportunity.

Good Luck to all and Thank You for reading

--updated 6-8-19 8am PT—

Moraes is now -135 in the main event. Henry seems to be highly intense based on the weigh-ins and face offs. The key to this fight is Moraes ability to keep the fight standing and neutralize Henry’s trips, taps and takedown attempts. This will be a super fight. Many pundits feel this is an under 3.5 rounds type fight but I feel just the opposite. I believe it takes Marlon into the fourth or fifth round to display an edge in precision/sharpness which will allow him to take advantage of the extra weight Henry will be toting for this bout and eventually catch him with something forceful once Cejudo begins to feel the effects of fighting a man that is accustomed to fighting men weighing one hundred and fifty pounds on a regular basis.

Ferguson -145 vs. Cerrone +135

Pressure, this fight will be determined by pressure. Can Tony apply it and how will Cowboy deal with it. I say that Ferguson has all the loose ‘nuts and bolts’ to be legit crazy in the Octagon. That scares rational folk and Cowboy has never fared well against aggressive forward pressing maniacs. Ferguson’s plan is to apply pressure and come at the Cowboy with volume strikes from every angle.

Cowboy’s plan I believe will be to try to catch Tony coming in via the counter strike and take advantage of a Ferguson weakness which can be strike defense as the guy sometimes sells out to press his offensive barrage. This plan may be effective but it is also passive. I believe this is a tough spot for Cerrone who is a valiant courageous fighter but will eventually succumb to the unrelenting pressure from Ferguson. Ferguson opened -180 which I believe is more accurate depiction of his talent.

Ferguson -145

Grasso -115 vs. Kowalkiewicz +105

Value play here. Kowalkiewicz opened -195 here and granted that may be a tough aggressive but I do view her as the more complete fighter and therefore worthy -150 or so chalk. Grasso backers have pounded the number down to pick-em. Grasso is an improving fighter with gaping areas of improvement and Karolina is a fighter on the down side of her career but the level of experience, skill and ability she possesses point me to the Pole.

Kowalkiewicz +105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 


Stanley Cup Final Blues vs. Bruins: Elimination - 6/3/2019

--6-6-19 7am PT--

Stanley Cup Final series price:

Blues -310 vs. Bruins +250

Once again we find ourselves in the position of trusting our handicapping rather than being pushed by the over reacting, lack of perspective press into believeing what happened in the last game is now the foundation for future games.  

The press in its ever so narrow scope of view and lack of historical perspective do allow us as contrarians to profit by driving the masses right into recency blindness. Here's a tip of the hat to all the hockey press people (really all sports press pundits) out there that talk about everything except what matters most. The physical and mental capability of the team inside the loker room. 

We got options puckheads and by now most of you can predict the next move. Insured bottom line or Belly up to the Blues?

--6-5-19 4:20pm PT--

Puckheads with a little bit o faith own the Blues +145 skating into Beantown tonight.

The Bruins are angling mirrors against the sun to try to blind the underdogs into believing this is too big a chore for them and that they don’t have the players because of injuries to compete…Please.

The Blues will not underestimate this team nor will they let up because they fall into believing that the B’s are injured because they know they are are not.

That said, Chara is now the target make little mistake about it and the swarming, aggressive Blues forecheck will try to compete deep into the game with these heavily favored B’s by pounding their inexperienced and thin defensemen into the boards.

Meanwhile the wiley, savvy, beguiling B’s will look to play the Blue’s game but then employ their advantage…quickness and explosion in order to turn the tide and upend the heavy, hammering upstart Blues. Now the table’s set for dinner only one thing to do now…..eat

 

--6-5-19-10:15amPT--

Released Tuesday via Twitter:

Blues +145

--6-3-19 4:30pm PT--

I‘m greatly anticipating this hockey game puckheads….St. Louis is basically basked so it’s time to recoup two units of future loss in the remaining games of this series. Also, I feel that if I can over react enough to the Blues game three loss, I may be able to overcome and reverse the harsh reality I feel is sure coming their way.

What we have learned about the community of St. Louis is that they are hugely human paying reverence to Laila and family while at the same time carrying the weight of a rabid hockey city striving to earn the legitimacy they’ve longed for since their inclusion into the original twelve in 1967.

To this puck purist, the great city of St. Louis earned their puck respect decades ago but the fact is that there’s a critical contest tonight and the B’s loom LARGE in this situation according to my numbers….

The Boston Bruins fully understanding that if they win this game they bust the Blue’s bubble and overcome the frustration of losing the Cup to the Hawks in 2015. There’s real passion here on both sides puckheads and it makes my decision an easy one.

Tonight we witness passion, single minded focus and the essence of what each of these two teams really are….

Under 5.5 -105 (Southpoint)

this line is -130 and higher at most off shore locations. I still recommend the wager

 

Puckheads I am certain the Blues are going to be UN-able to overcome the colossal pants shitting they administered to themselves in game three.

Penalties we going to be the St. Louis advantage in this series and I handicapped that completely wrong as it is St. Louis that is grabbing, reacting and losing what was a great opportunity to reward their loyal fans with a hoisting. It appears to me the only hoisting they’ll be doing is loading their equipment into their vans for the long trip home in but a few days time. Can these Blue’s still react and win this Championship? My numbers say they have about a one in five shot. That means we may have to take a different approach this evening. Stay tuned and check the ‘Hockey’ tab as we near the drop of the Puck for what is going to be the most important game of this series…. thus far.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final Blues vs. Bruins Gm3: top shelf entertainment - 6/1/2019

Stanley Cup Final passion heads to a critical game three tonight in St. Louis where the beguiling, savvy, experienced Bruins understand full well that they must win tonight or become a footnote in the annals of second place finishers in this Tournament.

These cagey B’s must strangle the Blue’s in front of a frenetic crowd tonight and gain the 2-1 series advantage for they know the winner of game three in a Cup series tied 1-1 goes on to win 79% of the time.

The Bruins have a corner on experience and public sentiment as they arrive to St. Louis poised to try to do one thing to the Blues tonight; frustrate them then choke them out. It’s names like Rask, Marchand and Bergeron that the B’s must read on the box score if they are to extend this series and pose a real threat to these upstart Blues.

The Blue’s meanwhile are in position to decide whether they’re potential Champions or perennial pukes for this game is THE telling contest in this series and everyone with a hockey puck for a brain knows this. Binnington, defense and belief on one end and a frenetic furious forecheck on the other. Let's not forget five decades of frustration for this year we're witnessing ..

“Revenge 50 years in the making” …

Blues -110 (half)          Under 5 +130 (half)


UFC Stockholm Gustafsson vs. Smith: Nordic Blast - 5/31/2019

This UFC card from Stockholm is well timed as the prelims kick off at 7am PT with main event dropping about noon or so PT. This allows for a concentrated fight effort backed up by a passionate game three in St. Louis between he Blues and the Bruins.

My ‘Point Spread Weekly’ article is below and the Oezdemir -115 release within it has been scratched doe to Ilir Latifi being unable to make the fight because of a back issue. Unfortunate so I’ll simply update my article and add a couple of value releases on fighters who I believe will show up poised to perform.

Let’s Fight

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--originally published 5-29--19 Point Spread Weekly—

The UFC visits Stockholm Sweden this week with an early Saturday matinee for fight fans viewing from the PST. They’ll kick off the prelims at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 10am PT.

The final three fights on this Stockholm card feature Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.) matchups which will go a long way in determining pecking order in a weight class depraved of any viable threat to Champion Jon Jones. I’ll briefly break down each of these three fights, the first of which will go off around 11:15am PT.

Alexander Gustafsson -300 vs. Anthony Smith +240 Light Heavyweight Main Event

Each of these men went down to defeat against Champion Jones in their last fight. Gustafsson has faced the far superior level of competition. He is a boxing-based fighter with an effective kicking arsenal and excels in the clinch where he can use his knees to inflict damage. Gus wants to employ distance so he may effectively use his length to precision strike opponents’ legs, body and head. He fights at home and will look to make a statement regarding his top ranking in hierarchy of this division come Saturday AM.

Smith is also a boxing striking based fighter who uses less movement and more pressure to unleash his power punching. Smith’s footwork and quickness are detriments honestly as well as his defense. Although he looked to perplex Champion Jones in his last outing it’s my belief that sometimes when two fight, the competition can come off awkward and ugly as that fight did. 

Gustafsson is a worthy chalk here but I don’t chase -300 chalk. I’ll look for props/rounds lines when they’re released for this fight as I believe it probable that Gus finishes Smith Saturday.

Volkan Oezdemir -115 vs. Ilir Latifi Light Heavyweight Co Main event

Two Swiss fighters who’ve trained extensively in the past face one another to determine who steps up in this division and who falls back into the mosh pit.

Latifi is appropriately nicknamed ‘the Sledgehammer’ as he is stocky, quick, explosive and ultra-powerful relying on destructive roundhouse punching early in fights. He has a solid wrestling base which allows him to keep his fights standing where he can pressure opponents to get inside their reach in order to deliver punishment from the inside. In this fight I could see Latifi trying to work Oezdemir to the ground because Latifi may find the stand-up challenging against this opponent. Latifi can also counter well but his biggest concern is his ability to fight effectively past six/seven difficult minutes as his size requires massive amounts of energy use and his history shows that he tends to wear down quickly with his style of explosive offensive output.

Oezdemir is five years the younger man which provides him some advantage numerically from the start. He’s also the taller, longer fighter versed in BJJ but who wants to use his kickboxing background to batter opponents and finish them.

Oezdemir who I believe is a top five fighter in this division impressed me in his last outing against up and coming Dom Reyes losing a split decision that could have gone either way in my judgement. He’ll be finitely focused on getting back into the win column after that last outcome which he feels he won.

Oezdemir faces a stylistically ‘made’ opponent for his skills as evidenced in his Opening price of -175 which I handicapped as spot on. A steady flow of Latifi money has compressed that line to its current -115 creating great value on Oezdemir.

Oezdemir -115

Racik -220 vs. Manuwa +180

Racik is twelve years younger, four inches taller and will look to knock out the more experienced Englishman in this fight. Manuwa has power but unfortunately he telegraphs his ‘Sunday shots’ and has an extremely short fuse (cardio). If he is to win this fight, he must immediately take this fight to Racik and engage him from the inside. This will allow Manuwa to fight without threat of Racik being able to use distance to unleash his power as well allow Manuwa to unleash his damage up close and personal.

Racik is taking a big step up class in this fight and while he holds some physical advantages he has not been really tested by a top talent at Light Heavyweight and a desperate Manuwa trying to retain his top ranking and fight credibility in the division will be a great test for the young Serbian.

Racik opened -285 and I tend to think Manuwa is live in this spot but this line may creep back up so let’s monitor it pending weigh-ins and further developments later this week.

--updated 5-31-19 11:15am PT—

A UFC card in the early AM makes for a happy Uncle Louie understanding the Stanley Cup Hockey is at a level where nothing keeps me from watching every second…so it’s fisticuffs in the morning and passion that night. Sounds like my marriage lol.

Gustafsson -300 vs. Smith +280

There’s little to add other than I have never been impressed with Smith as a martial artist. He’s long on heart and guts then short on everything else required to be world class. I feel strongly enough about Gus to use him in the first leg of a parlay….

Hadzovic -160 vs. Giagos +140

Value comes in all ways shapes and forms and in this fight Giagos who opened +195 has been bet down to +150. Giagos will need to get this fight to the ground to control the Bosnian bomber Hadzovic who’s last five results have impressed me in that he has tussles with top end grapples like Patrick and Held and done reasonably well against each. Hadzovic’s striking will be far more effective against Giagos than will Giagos ground game. Hadzovic opened -275 and now he is in the strike range.

Gustafsson -300/Hadzovic -160 parlay (+118)

Racik -200 vs. Manuwa +180

This line has compressed since early week with support incoming on Manuwa. I do like Jimi here but old, slowing fighters with fragile chin’s scare the hail out of me. That said, Racik is unathletic, has fought poorly calibrated UFC talent and is stepping way up in class against a fighter that has been in with the top fighting talent in the division.  Racik’s power is negligible and Manuwa’s anger is off the charts as he feels utterly disrespected. He may be right…

Manuwa +180 (half)

Clark -110 vs. Stosic +100

Again, value. Stosic is the shorter more deliberate striking talent while Clark has athleticism, unorthodox striking and a porcelain chin. Stosic opened -265 for this fight and the Euro’s must be clamoring to claim Clark for Stosic is now +100. I’ll take the stoic Serbian to pressure Clark unrelentingly and eventually touch him on the teeth.

Stosic +100

Jo -135 vs. Teymur +125

Teymur’s brother David is a legitimate UFC fighter. This Teymur is on the card because it is in Sweden. He’s very short for Lightweight and will be giving away height, reach and age against the South Korean ship in Jo who is making his UFC debut. Teymur has no more motivation than to win this fight in front of his hommies but other than heart and five minutes of fight he has nothing that tells me he should even be in the UFC. Meanwhile this kid Jo has been getting groomed for his big chance for months and it’s my opinion that the UFC will bolster itself in its effort to enhance its brand in the Orient by matching this young talent up with a set up situation…. that’s exactly how I see this fight.

Jo -135

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Profitable Sports Gaming


Stanley Cup Final Bruins vs. Blues: REMATCH 1970 gm2 - 5/29/2019

--5-29-19 4pm PT--

Blues +155 gm2

but as always...patience and try for +160

--5-29-19 7:20am PT--

All playoffs long we’ve maintained a trust in the handicapping process by remaining committed to our series wagers which has resulted in bottom line profitability. After watching the Blues pee all over themselves after a fine start in game one the easy thing to do would be to bail on them by succumbing to and joining the tsunami of suckers coming out of the woodwork to back the B’s.

That, however we will not do. One thing I have come to realize and trust deeply is that, “everyone is usually wrong”. It’s in my DNA puckheads as Springsteen wrote decades ago when I was young and formative, “When they said, sit down, I stood up”.

This series is now lined:

Bruins -300 vs. Blues +250 (series)

As I see this Final series unfold it is my aspiration that Boston does in fact decide that they can play physical forceful hockey with the Blues because honestly over the long haul I don’t believe they can as well I believe it distracts them from the advantageous use of their speed/precision and forces them to play a style of puck less suited for their strengths and more suited to allowing the Blues to beat the bosox out of the Bruins over a long physical series.

The Blues need to win one of the next two games puckheads and if they can at least do that we’ll be poised to watch these two compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup over a long and grueling series. They’ll have to hold off on the victory celebrations in Beantown for a time while the Blues find their discipline and get back into this series.

Blues series +250

I may also go with the Blue’s tonight but let’s hold off and let ‘everyone’ bang them B’s and drive our road dung price up in value.....


Stanley Cup Final Bruins vs. Blues: Rematch 1970 gm2 - 5/22/2019

All NHL Playoff Hockey releases/results can be accessed by using the 'Hockey' tab on the top of this page.

The Photo I’ll use during the Stanley Cup Final is fitting and foundational in my connection to hockey for I watched this play, game and series live back in the day with my father who was the one pure Bruin’s fan. Sanderson (on the right) had passed the puck to Orr who put it past Glen Hall on a one tap play to sweep the Blues and earn their firsat Cup since the 1940's.  

It was my dad viewing and explaining the game of Hockey to me when I was not yet twelve that spawned my deep seeded love for hockey today. The old man played youth hockey with Gordie Howe in Omaha decades ago and he transferred his love for the game/Tournament to this mangy mutt handicapper.

This Bruin vs. Blues series is a rematch of a 1969 Stanley Cup Final where a young revolutionary, transcendent talent Bobby Orr skated a heavily favored Boston team to a four game sweep of the newly formed Blues club.

Orr lead a band of crazy Bruins laced with veteran knuckleheads like Derek Sanderson, generational grinders like Johnny Bucyk and fluent scorers like Phil Esposito. Orr’s Stanley Cup winning tally not only is a most famous sports image but it’s etched forever in my brain as I jumped around the family room with my pops celebrating Boston's achievement.

Later this week I’ll have appearances on VSiN’s ‘The Edge’ with my friends Matt Youmans and Jonathan VonTobel as well appear on Ken Thompson’s Las Vegas SportsX radio show Friday night to break down this Final series. I'll have many thoughts regarding and  I’ll reserve most of my thoughts on the Cup Final until I get through those media sessions but will surely post my full series breakdown and path to profitability sometime early this upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

Rematch fifty years in the making......Oh, the Passion! 

2019 Profitability through three rounds: 36-34    51.43%    +14.71u   ROI 23.33%


Campbell Confrontation Blues vs. Sharks Gm6 - 5/21/2019

Well puckheads our set up after game one where we grabbed the Blues +200 series seems to have been a savvy selection. That said, I am not in the gambling business I am in the Profitable Sports Gaming business and rather than let the +200 get lonely, we’ll cover that investment to create the simple and mundane win/win scenario. This will allow me to focus on the game (s) remaining in the Campbell and prepare for the Final series. Today’s tactic is easy.

Sharks series +300 (half)

This creates a net .50-unit profit should the Sharks do the unexpected and bring this series back to San Jose for a final seventh contest (and win) or a net 1.5u profit should the Blues batter the nicked-up Sharks tonight in St. Louis or in game seven God forbid.

I do expect the Blues to win this series and both appease those whiney Vegas Knight fans and march into next week’s Cup final a team of believers. They’ll face a bunch in Boston that will have been off for a week plus by the time they drop the frozen rubber as well listening to the locals bask in the glory that is recent Boston dominance across all sports right now (pressure).

Based on my observations this playoff season, there are only the intangibles of time and expectation that may possibly slow or impede the Bruin momentum heading into this final series of the Stanley Cup Tournament.

I’ll have much reminisce about if hockey can in fact produce a rematch of the great 1969/70 Stanley Cup that featured the Bruins against the Blues where Boston revolutionary talent Bobby Orr made the greatest tally in Boston Bruins history. Much to discuss….