6-25-17 8:50am EST
College World Series finalists are established and the SEC rules this year. LSU -170 vs. Florida +130 (Series) is opening price.
GambLou.com Hardheaded hardball harlots hold LSU +410 and Florida +610 in the Futures market. The 2017 CWS is basically completed for us now that we have both finalists diagnosed via Future wagers. Tournament Profit is insured. Enjoy the last series Enthusiasts. We'll post final profit numbers once the three game series between LSU and Florida is completed and perhaps offer a single game release if we feel there is a value position.
6-24-17 10:30am EST
Here’s a College World Series update.
Odds to win CWS
OSU +170 Florida +255 LSU +265 TCU +345
GambLou hardball loyalists own LSU +410 and Florida +610 but each team must earn its way into the final series. This is by far the closest and most competitive final four teams in the CWS that I can ever recall.
While we own market advantage with LSU today they’ll need to use every bit of guile, grit and glue to remain competitive with a most complete Oregon State squad. LSU has played five ballgames in the CWS in the last eight days which is hard on a college pitching staff. Oregon State meanwhile is fully rested save for Thompson who hurled yesterday. The Beavers are a worthy chalk in this spot.
Tonight’s second game could be a down right pitching duel as each team will advance their Ace in a rematch of game one where the Gators Faedo (2.40 ERA) out dueled the Horned frogs Janczak (2.19 ERA). Florida is rested and features a deep pitching staff but let’s recall that last year in this spot it was TCU that had the 2-0 tourney lead and got chopped by the Chanticleer’s who eventually went on to win it all. TCU is focused, experienced and on a mission. Those that don’t have the Futures we gave prior to this Tourney would be wise to holla at the Horned Frogs.
For those of us riding the Tigers and Gator’s let’s protect ourselves in the instance that it all goes wrong today and the finals series is Beavers vs. Horned Frogs.
Parlay (half unit)
Beavers -145/Horned Frogs +125 (+2.80)
‘Swing it Easy’
6-23-17 2:20pm EST
Jake Thompson takes the ball for OSU so we will pass on the game and watch. Hopefully LSU can take this side of the bracket into tomorrow.
6-23-17 11:30am PST
We're waiting to see who is on the hill for OSU....If Thompson starts it means we pass but if OSU gets greedy and starts any other hurler then he we'll look at Lange and Tigers as mangy Omaha mutt....check in prior to the drop of the puck! We'll try to post here or if we're running we'll post any release on @Twitter.
6-22-17 6:55pm EST
Florida +140 released via @Twitter 6:50pm EST
6-19-17 10:45am EST
College World Series: No releases Monday
Daily releases 0-2
Futures: LSU +410; Florida +610
6-16-17 12pm EST
Welcome College Baseball fans to the 2017 CWS. The final eight teams of the 64 seed NCAA Baseball Tournament are in Omaha, NE. to compete for the College Baseball Championship. Here’s our breakdown of this outstanding event.
It’s important to understand the bracket set up for the College World Series. One team in each bracket will win its first two contests. That platoon is able to fully rest its pitching staff and spend time on the practice field while the other three teams in the bracket invest arms, and energy to survive and try to earn their way through said 2-0 team into the championship series. Winning the first two games while not critical (both teams that started 2-0 last year did NOT make it into the Final series) is by far the preferred path to compete in the Final series.
TD Ameritrade park is a cavernous ballpark that sits low next to the Missouri River. Wind in the plains of Nebraska go from a light breeze to turbulent tornado in seconds. No matter how hard wind may be blowing it comes in from the outfield straight into the hitter’s teeth. A huge spacious outfield with wind blowing in is the norm. Teams arriving in Omaha since 2011 have been forced to become more reliant on deep Pitching staffs, tight fielding, fleet outfielders, hitting for average, for extra bases, and sacrificing to score and win. It’s mandatory to be able to play small ball in TD Ameritrade for the days of Gorilla ball and scores in the teens died with old Rosenblatt stadium up on the hill.
An underrated nuance to the CWS is which team(s) the fans in Omaha will gravitate to. Remember that this is Big Red Football Country so teams like FSU or Florida (that have competed with the Huskers in bowls etc.) will be despised. Omaha fans have a propensity to support any new underdog squad (perfect example last year was Coastal Carolina) provided of course that LSU is not in the field. If the Tigers are in Omaha make no mistake about the fact that the fans will back the Bayou Bengals as their own. This tradition is based on Baton Rouge and Omaha being very similar tertiary cities with people that over time have become family for 13 days each CWS (yep LSU fans flock to the CWS even when the Tigers are NOT in the CWS)! LSU will have overwhelming support in Omaha.
Odds to win CWS
OSU +275 LSU +410 FSU +750 CSF +1250
Louisville +220 Florida +610 TCU +800 Texas AM +1750
Cal State Fullerton arrives an underappreciated and unnoticed team. They took out Stanford and LBSU, two red hot teams to earn their way to Omaha. CSF are 0-7 in their last 7 appearances in the CWS which is why it may be easy for many to overlook this group. 2015 was their last trip here and they and went 2 & BBQ (that’s Omaha talk for 2 and out). They Pitch well and field (highest fielding % of all eight teams) but they can sometimes struggle to score. CSF has won a title in each of the last four decades but have not won one this decade. The Titans are the top fielding team in Omaha, they sport a WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) of 1.23 best behind only OSU and Louisville which means they play solid baseball and they don’t beat themselves. Fullerton is a sleeper.
Oregon State is the power. They’re ranked first in the Country (latest NCAA poll 5-29-17). The Beavers play it the CWS way, they feature a 1.80 team ERA, field at .978%, have the lowest WHIP in the Tourney, allow the fewest hits per game and they steal bases. This is a most complete team that has been steady, consistent and overpowering all-season long. The Beavers have only lost four games and while impressive we must acknowledge that the Pac 12 was off a bit as far as deep talented baseball squads in 2017. There’s also an ugly unwanted plume of distraction that has followed the Beavers to Omaha. These are college kids and the distraction this team and Coach Casey are facing will be difficult to overcome for synonymous with the CWS is ‘family environment’ and the story of P Heimlich remaining in Oregon will be addressed ad-nauseum. This puts OSU without their top hurler, it forces them to talk about issues not baseball related in and out of the dugout. Oregon State is carrying a heavy load from this perspective.
Florida State comes in healthy for the first time in months and playing the best baseball of their year. Their Coach Mike Martin who’s had 38 years at the helm of FSU is the Ambassador to College Baseball coaching. Martin is a true southern gentleman, everyone associated with College baseball would be elated if his team earned a title. The Seminoles have been to Omaha 22 times in their history and have never won so to say they are due is an understatement. They were a strike away from losing in the Super Regionals to Auburn but found a way to grind it out and be one of the remaining eight. FSU is well balanced offensively (they score, they hit, they slug) but team ERA (3.72), hits allowed and fielding (lowest of the teams in Omaha) is a concern. The Seminoles won’t have local fan support other than the loyalists hoping Martin can steal a Championship for Nebraskan’s are not Seminole supporters.
Louisiana State will be the darlings of the dance in Omaha. The Tigers have had to learn their way into this new ballpark for they were the template of ‘Gorilla ball’ until they played in TD Ameritrade on two occasions with putrid results. LSU is 1-4 in their last two CWS appearances so Coach Mainieri remade the team. LSU now features pitching ace in Lange and a staff that has an ERA of 3.54, they have the best fielding percentage in the Tourney, they give up few hits and don’t walk men aboard. Offensively they can do it all as the team hits .294. They’ve average 1.74 doubles per game (doubles mean well more than HR’s in TD Ameritrade), they run like deer in the outfield, have power and steal 1.10 bases per nine innings. In 2015 LSU came to Omaha and went 2 and BBQ. Last year’s team lost eight players from 2015 and were beat in the Super Regionals by eventual CWS Champions Coastal Carolina. After that Super regional setback, four junior leaders on the team capable of playing professionally decided to return to campus and lead LSU to the 2017 CWS. The Tigers went from a youthful team last year in need of some seasoning to a veteran laden group who decided to return this year with purpose. Experienced, focused, a complete team and a feverous fan following. LSU is a contender.
Louisville is no secret to the gaming markets much to our dismay and they’re set up quite well as they open against the only unranked opponent in this year’s tournament Texas AM. Louisville is complete yet they lack recent CWS experience (which we view as a premium). Last year Louisville was a highly ranked super power that was rolling along until they looked past a live underdog in UCSB who took the Cardinals down in two straight in Louisville. The embarrassment and pain of that loss drives the Cardinals this year but we wonder if getting to O was the hiatus and they’ll need to learn how to win once in the Tourney. Louisville pitching is a strength with a team ERA of 2.85, a 1.16 WHIP and the second fewest hits allowed in the Tourney. This is a fundamentally sound club. Louisville’s talent and placement in the bracket make them a worthy favorite yet at +220 the value on this team is non-existent. Pass.
Texas A&M is the lone unranked team in this year’s Tournament. They earned their place in the final eight yet faced only one ranked opponent (a 4-3 win over then 15 ranked Houston in the Regionals) on their way. At A&M pitching is the strength of the team and they as they have three solid starting pitchers. On offense A&M is better than the stats indicate. Texas A&M’s had a relatively easy route to get to Omaha, they’re playing their best hardball of the year, they’re pitching is top notch they field well and may be getting overlooked. Unfortunately for A&M they have not had success in Omaha going 2-10 in all time CWS appearances and 0-6 their last six games in Omaha but with ex Nebraska cornhusler Childress coaching the Aggies and some of his players on the staff that last took the Huskers to Omaha for this CWS (Bolt and Seely) look for the fans to be soundly supporting the Aggies. Texas A&M opened as a +155 dog to Louisville Sunday in game one. Interested.
Florida was In Omaha last year and they arrived with pomp and circumstance as chalk being bet to a Tourney favorite price of +180. They had it all, pitching fielding, hitting, coaching and heaps of hype. Their result was two and BBQ! It’s this type of result (like that of LSU we mentioned and upcoming discussion of TCU) that we look to uncover for experience (especially poor) can provide a singularity of purpose, a laser focus for college hardball teams earning the chance to return to Omaha. Florida pitches well, they are tied in fielding percentage with CSF & LSU and while they can sometimes struggle to score they sacrifice and steal to manufacture runs which is necessary at this baseball park. Florida is steeped with experience and is a contender for the title. If they can win their first game lookout for the Gators.
TCU is a marvel. It’s a small private school with only 10,000 students and strict acceptance standards. What Coach Schlossnagle is doing in Fort Worth, TX is simply amazing. TCU is making their fourth straight CWS appearance. Last year they were one of the two teams to win their first two games only to get beat two straight and miss a shot at the final series. TCU returns basically the same team as they fielded in 2016. They’re complete and focused on finishing what they started last year. TCU has done it with team and not with statistics for they don’t top any of the statistical categories we track yet they are here again for the fourth time and being real quiet. Laden with returning players from last year’s team gives the Horned Frogs real stability and confidence in their return to Omaha. The winner of this TCU/Florida game on Sunday is a certain threat in this Tournament. It’s too bad they must face off in game one for they are both worthy candidates that may well have to play a couple games against one another to decide this side of the bracket.
Bracket I: LSU +410 Championship Bracket II: Florida +610 Championship
Saturday game: Cal State Fullerton +210
Sunday game: Texas A&M +200
(released Saturday on The Green Zone, VSiN.Live with Matt Youmans and Jonathan Von Tobel Gamblou.com)
Profitable Sports Gaming