Where have all the hound dogs gone?
Over the last four UFC slates Favorites are running a feverish 33-7-2 or 78.5% which makes deriving dollars from dogs difficult. That said, our last four UFC cards have resulted in an 8-8 performance +3.75u so we’re navigating this storm pretty well realizing however that the last three cards are showing a slight loss.
I monitor my betting habits/results constantly in an attempt to earn every penny possible and to reduce mental mistakes which thankfully are few. Today I smell manure in the streets which means only one thing…. I hope.
Below is my article for this week’s ‘Point Spread weekly’ magazine published by VSiN. I’ve also had/have the pleasure of appearing on several podcasts and radio programs weekly and can assure you that the final releases are reflective of those exact same releases.
All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00. I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage. The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year. Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.
--originally published 11-18-20 Point Spread Weekly—
UFC 255 from Las Vegas APEX Center is one of five remaining 2020 events the organization has on the 2020 docket. This card features several fights worthy of potential investment so in this week’s column I’ll take an abbreviated look at a handful of match-ups in order to prepare fight enthusiasts for the big Saturday slate.
Last week’s parlay release of Alhassan <1.0u> was another poor favorite release on my part. I anticipate no chalk parlays as we close out the year to say the least. Sean Strickland ended up closing +110, he KO’d the young, game yet low fight IQ Brendan Allen which offsets the Alhassan debacle. The Anders vs. Arroyo fight was cancelled after weigh-ins so there was no play there.
2020 Insight the Octagon: 36-26 +17.62u
Deiveson Figueiredo -300 vs. Alex Perez +250 Flyweight (125lbs.) Championship
There are several dominant champions spread throughout the twelve weight classes in the UFC and any discussion of dominance within one’s division must include flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo.
What makes Figueiredo unique and sets him apart from others in the Flyweight division is his massive size, especially on fight night when he competes at +/-153lbs., his extreme athleticism, his precision timing/striking and his abundant power. Figueiredo works best by aggressively walking opponents down then battering them.
If the dominant Flyweight champion does have an Achilles heel however it would be his ground game or lack thereof.
In most battles, opponents are not determined enough, skilled enough or conditioned enough to work their way through the punishment incurred striving to gain inside position on Figueiredo. But the way to compete with Figueiredo is to in fact close distance on him and wrestle him up just as Justin Formiga did last March when he decisioned Figueiredo. That said, Figueiredo has had time to address this known shortcoming and couple it with his extreme size which translates into a formidable take down defense.
Fourth ranked flyweight Alex Perez is three years younger than the Champion and an inch taller but that’s where his advantages end. He’s not faced near the level of competition that Deiveson has and their one of their common opponents (Joe Benavidez) finished Perez while Figueiredo trucked Benavidez on two separate back to back occasions. A second common opponent, Jussier Formiga displayed the wrestling to beat Figueiredo while Perez finished the aged Formiga in brutal leg kick fashion in his last fight.
So, Perez does enter this fight with the momentum winning his last three and he has the wrestling background to try to take Figueiredo to the floor. The key to this fight lies in Perez’s ability to close distance, get this to the floor and tax the champion where he is most uncomfortable which seems a tall order from this perspective.
I regard Figueiredo as a strong favorite.
Champion Valentina Shevchenko -1200 vs. Jenn Maia +750 Woman’s Flyweight Championship
By my view, Shevchenko is on equal footing to Amanda Nunes as the most dominant pound for pound woman’s fighters in UFC History. Yes, Amanda Nunes defeated Shevchenko twice but that was at 135lbs. and Shevchenko went up from her 125lb. weight class to compete against Nunes at Nunes weight! Believe me when I say that this Shevchenko is as lethal a modern mixed martial artist as there is today…men or women.
Her opponent, third ranked Jenn Maia is walking into as thorough a ‘whuppin’ as is Alex Perez in the main event. In this case Maia’s weaponry is BJJ and her success is linked to her gaining the inside on Shevchenko then managing to take this fight to the mat.
The one issue is that Shevchenko is more versed everywhere than is anyone in the division, it’s that simple. For Maia to have any shot here she must clasp onto then roll with Shevchenko on the floor and try to catch her with some slick submission but the odds of that are long.
Mike Perry -155 vs. Tim Means +135 Welterweight (170lbs.)
Tim Means is a sixteen-year MMA veteran whose career has spanned three weigh classes over forty-four professional fights. Means will have four inches of arm/leg reach as well height advantage in a fight that figures to be a stand-up war. I award experience and physical advantages to Means.
Mean’s opponent is a man who can easily intimidate. Mike Perry is innately mean, overly aggressive, inner driven and likely not playing with a full deck of cards. Recent behavior away from the octagon can be researched on your own but part of Perry’s mystique is mirage.
Perry is strong as a mule, unrelenting with his forward pressure, telegraphing with his power strikes and able to sustain incredible amounts of physical damage. Together this makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone without years of mixed martial arts experience. In fact, the style perry employs makes him just about the perfect opponent.
Perry has youth, strength and maniacal mental ability yet Means has a depth of experience and the ability to use movement and precision striking to calmly keep Perry on the outside where he can pick and peck his way to a decision.
Cynthia Calvillo -170 vs. Kaitlin Chookagain +145 Women’s Flyweight
Calvillo is the fourth ranked flyweight and was scheduled to fight an elimination bout in the division before it was cancelled and her opponent took an ‘easy way out’ fight instead. That forced Calvillo to find another opponent. At least Calvillo is showing mettle by facing second ranked Flyweight Kaitlin Chookagain who just fought and was finished by Jessica Andrade October 18th.
Calvillo who fights out of team Alpha Male is nasty to her roots. She fights using unrelenting pressure wrestling, toughness and grit.
Chookagain is a fighter I choose in October to beat Andrade. That handicap missed but I’m considering coming right back to her here as she has the take down defense, movement and striking to keep Calvillo at distance and paint her with strikes. Chookagain has experience, five inches of height as well as arm/leg reach advantages and I regard her as live in this fight but will wait until later in the week to take in weigh-ins which are so critical in handicapping the UFC in 2020.
Joaquin Buckley -275 vs. Jordan Wright +225 Middleweight (185lbs.)
What we remember from Buckley is last month’s stunning back kick that knocked Impa Kasangay completely out on his feet. Timbur! We don’t know a lot about Buckley but we do know he was iced himself two fights back by rapidly rising contender Kevin Holland, so he is fallible.
Buckley is short and compact for the division and possesses profuse punching power coupled with a full flavor of bad intention. Next of course are the fans who are convinced from one dynamic kick that Buckley is the real deal. Myself, I’ll have to see more.
His opponent, Jordan Wright goes by the moniker ‘the Beverly Hills Ninja’. This chap fights out of Beverly Hills and looks the part of a movie star playing UFC competitor especially early in his career when his skills were dull and his opponents’ statues.
At 6’2” Wright will be the taller fighter with substantial reach advantage over Buckley but his level of competition is still a bit lacking to be honest though his last two opponents were worthy. This fight will be interesting in that we’ll get to see if Buckley is a legitimate threat within this division while also determining if this pasty white suburban kid from Rodeo Drive can fight.
Brandon Moreno -195 vs. Brandon Royval +160 Flyweight
Moreno is the second ranked Flyweight all set to fight Alex Perez before Perez got the call to be in the main event. Many including myself thought that the opportunity should have gone to Moreno so I can see the Mexican fighter having a little extra motivation coming into this bout.
Moreno, who gives Mike Perry a run for the title of looniest fighter in the UFC mixes Muay Thai striking, BJJ and erratic movement to attack opponents. Moreno has earned his way to his second ranking within the division and he is determined to fight for a championship. Moreno enters this bout peaking and he’ll need every advantage he can muster for this opponent is most dangerous.
Royval has had two impressive wins since he hit the UFC a few months ago and he has been rewarded with this fight, the winner of which is likely to be the next challenger to the Flyweight title. Royval, a southpaw is a high-volume striker who employs movement to create angles for a striking attack comprised of fists, elbows and knees. He’ll own height and length advantages over Moreno giving him advantage in the stand-up. It will be interesting to learn how Moreno plans to deal with the physicality, pressure and striking of Royval.
Moreno’s experience and grit will be tested against a young, talented, carefree fighter who has little to lose and everything to gain.
There are actually a couple of other fights I am targeting. I’ll have updates later in the week and a full synopsis of each release Saturday morning at GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading
--updated 11-21-20 6:40am PT—
Figueiredo -270 vs. Perez +235
The question in my mind is when does Figueiredo finish Perez?
Shevchenko -1700 vs. Maia +1050
See above only replace Figueiredo with Shevchenko….
Perry -110 vs. Means -110
This price clearly shifted on news of Perry’s missed weight. If Means can survive the early fury from Perry then I believe he is in position to paint this guy’s fence. Perry win lose or draw needs some assistance in his personal life and I hope he can get it.
Moreno -180 vs. Royval +160
This is going to be one hell of a fire fight. Both are top five talents in the division and the winner is next in line to compete for the belt. Moreno has experience and guile but Royval has momentum some range and a more evasive strike defense which I believe will be the difference in this fight. Moreno as -125 or -130 OK but his current price is not reflective of the fight, I believe we’ll witness.
Buckley -240 vs. Wright +210
This is a shaky favorite in Buckley but this is also a shaky overall fighter in Wright. I feel Wrights athleticism and size could pose problems for the more compact power striker Buckley. Wright was released earlier in the week via ESPN behind the bets +240.
Patience as this may move higher
Craig -175 vs. Rua +150
Craig the grappler needs to keep this standing and old man Rua who was a decent favorite in this bout a year or so ago must get this fight to the floor or he’ll get pieced up. Flyer
Jouban -150 vs. Gooden +130
Two ships passing in the night. Jouban is not to be underestimated here as he’ll surely own the stand-up. That said, I believe Gooden wrestle’s him up from bell to bell.
Profitable Sports Gaming