Money Morning Puck Profits: Cry, quit or grind? - 4/16/2018

Welcome Puckheads to week one of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. What a difference a year makes! Last year we couldn’t miss a release entering the second week of the Playoffs and this year it seems we can’t deliver a dog anywhere! This leads me to a story which happens to be true.

In 2013 Mr. Chris Andrews (who is now Sportsbook Director at the Southpoint hotel) approached me to write UFC and NHL for his webpage ‘Against theNumber.com’. I was fresh off handicapping the Kings and Jonathan Quick to win the Cup in 2012 at 25-1 and knew that I would bring my 2012 hot hand into this new exciting writing gig for Andrews’ webpage in 2013.

Funny thing happened during that playoff season however. In 2013 my formula for profitability started out similarly to every year in that I targeted value in road teams and underdogs. The realization came to me early that year as chalk dominated the early rounds.

This put me in a very poor profitability situation, one where I actually was upset to the point where I even thought to stop writing because of the dismal delivery of dogs. However, because I was writing for Andrews I could not cry or quit for the teaching potential of this situation was just too great (even though at the time I was stressing).

This arduous beginning provided me the opportunity to show readers how to effectively navigate tough times and display that dogged determination and work ethic are as critical to the handicapper as those traits are to the people playing sports.

It took me until the last three games of the Stanley Cup Final (Hawks vs. Bruins) in 2013 to finally display a profitable bottom line.  After the season I realized quickly that each season is its own entity and one must be prepared for uncertainty and setback on their way to becoming profitable at sports gaming. That 2013 season taught me (well more than the shining superstar performance of 2012) to remain prepared and trust the process.

Let’s now speak of this year’s start….

After almost one week this Playoff season I’ve started 3-11 -5.25 units with most of my Futures performing positively. This is no time to stress or panic rather the time is now to consider adjusting the process  (just a bit) by reducing releases and perhaps even lowing wager amounts (something we have already executed that saved a full unit earlier this week). The goal now is to work conservatively and limit loss until we discover our stride. We know we WILL discover said stride we just do not know when.

Round 1 Results

Thus far in round one: Favorites are 13-6 and Home Teams 12-7 which helps explain our early swoon (I work to uncover value with road teams and underdogs in Puck Playoffs).

Road dogs are underperforming now but they WILL begin to bark and when they do I’ll be taking advantage of the value that is created after home team chalk begins to choke. Until then the goal is to limit potential liability and work our way into the correction that is coming.

Stay with me as I navigate this 2018 Playoff Puck season from an off start to a furious finish! Remember, its business!

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 1 - 4/15/2018

All Stanley Cup Futures, Conference, Series and daily releases can be accessed by hitting the 'Hockey' taob on the top of this webpage.

The passion

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC FN 128 Gaethje vs. Poirier: Desert D'Arce - 4/14/2018

Welcome to Glendale Arizona for today's UFC fight card. I'll be in attendance today and with Puck Passion also looming I'll post up the positions here and hope you all enjoy one of the most under rated fight cards of the year. I am hoping that the Italian Vettori kicks that scissors cutting weakling Adesanya's arse. more below lol

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Poirier -130 vs. Gaethje +120

Saturday’s UFC fight night 128 takes place in the desert climate of Glendale, AZ. There is no title fight scheduled but the main event features a couple of top ten Lightweight’s that bring varying skillsets into this fight. The late great Angelo Dundee would chime, “styles make fights” and Saturday’s victor featuring Poirier’s technical striking and movement competing against Gaethje’s aggressive, ill-intentioned relentlessness will help clarify who will move closer to a potential title shot against last week’s newly crowned Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov….as most paradoxical ‘career opportunity’ to say the least.

For Poirier movement and conditioning rule as he must not allow himself to get into any dogged exchanges with the taller, larger, stronger Gaethje who will want to make this a barroom brawl. Poirier’s ability to slip power shots, employ movement and counterpunch the incoming bull are the key to his winning this fight for he is a slick effective defensive fighter and understands Gaethje is coming to headhunt.

Gaethje, on the other hand must find a way to punish Poirier early and often to test his suspect chin and wear away at his will. Gaethje will rush Poirier and try to maul him against the cage and maintain inside position to unleash his flurries. Past fights have shown that the plan to pulverize Poirier is to back him up, bully him, crowd him and chip that chin which is exactly what Gaethje wants to do in front of his home state (Gaethje grew up and wrestled in Stafford, AZ.).

Poirier is the more technically sound combatant and will need to accrue striking volume to outpoint the slugger for he’ll not be able to finish the larger stronger opponent. Gaethje will employ dogged determination and unrelenting forward pressure to crowd the counterpuncher against the fence and piece him up with punches, elbows, kicks and knees.

Gaethje +120

Casey -150 vs. Waterson +140

This is a woman’s Strawweight battle where seventh ranked Michelle ‘the Karate hottie’ Waterson faces tenth ranked Courtney Casey. Waterson is recognized for her attractive looks besides being a complete fighter, but she struggles with the top women in the division. Casey has no sexy nick name but what she will have is height, size and a five-inch reach advantage in what looks to be a fight that will be a stand-up affair. Casey enters this fight well less recognized but with far more firepower. Casey will earn a victory in this fight.

Casey -115

(released Wednesday on Point Spread weekly)

Reis -125 vs. Moraga +115

Sixth ranked Reis, a Brazilian black belt off a couple of losses (to Champion Demetrius Johnson and second ranked Henri Cejudo) must have this fight take place on the mat if he is to get his hand raised. Moraga, an ex-college wrestler must keep this fight upright and not allow Reis to drag him down. Rather, Moraga needs to make this a boxing/striking affair where he’ll hold absolute advantage for on the feet, Reis will be outmatched, and Moraga more effective. Tenth ranked Moraga who’ll hold height and length advantages is fighting off a couple of upset wins, so he enters with confidence and competes in front of his home town. I look for a tremendous effort from Moraga, a fighter many may have written off.  After this fight, Moraga should reestablish himself as a title contender in the Flyweight division.

Moraga +120

(released Wednesday on Point Spread weekly)

Burns -590 vs. Moret +500

Burns looks the part but is an extremely one-dimensional fighter even though he is top notch world class at his specialty, BJJ. He must get Moret to the mat for the maul here. Moret (an MMALab fighter) has no skills considered ‘world class’ but he is tough as nails, very well-rounded in fight capacity, taller and a bit longer and has been yearning for this opportunity for months. Burns struggled to make weight and Moret looked like a razor blade at weigh-ins. Moret is the more versed fighter and as mangy a mutt as there is on the card. Moret is live….

Moret +500 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Below is the interview with Eddie Alvarez that helped me determine the Gaethje positrion...listen here.

https://soundcloud.com/siriusxmrush/eddie-alvarez-breaks-down-the-upcoming-gaethje-vs-poirier-matchup

  

 

 


2018 Stanley Cup Tournament: The Passion of Playoff Puck - 4/10/2018

all Hockey accounting can be access by hittinng the 'Hockey' tab on the top of the webpage. 

(4-10-18 1pm EST)

2018 Stanley Cup Playoff Futures, Conference, Series and Individual game releases posted here beginning Wednesday 4-11-18.

I'll post daily releases from 4 hours to 20 minutes prior to the drop of the puck on any particular contest.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming


UFC 223 Nurmagomedov vs. Iaquinta: Big Apple grapple - 4/2/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most unusual UFC 223. Despite the recent uncertainty in Brooklyn there will be a fight slate set to entertain tonight even though some of the fights have been recently changed, cancelled and/or removed. Like in game wagering, providing the 'Makers less time to price a performance actually presents advantage to an educated player as allowing them weeks to monitor the market is their advantage. Here’s the value we have uncovered for today’s UFC 223.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

Favorites in the UFC in 2018 are 62-34-5 for 61.3% and while I focus often on uncovering value on underdogs the more important consideration is ‘gaming value’. I work tirelessly to obtain value in any position which Segway’s me to UFC 223 and the Co-main event where there is abundant betting value.

Unfortunately for UFC 223 there has been upheaval and cancellations based on forces beyond any form of logic. That mentioned, it is my job to handicap fights not preside over punk Irishmen and spoiled Champion’s, so the focus is and always will continue to be uncovering value in adults fighting in the Octagon. Here are the selections for UFC 223.

Nurmagomedov –750 vs. Iaquinta +550 (Lightweight Championship)

Late replacements and short notice may have affected other fighters focusing on the UFC title but Khabib Nurmagomedov has confronted the events of the week with a calm demure approach worthy of only a superhuman fighting machine awaiting an opportunity to realize a life-long dream. Insert King Kong, Godzilla or Man Mountain Dean in the cage tonight with Nurmagomedov and just like in his previous fights he’ll quickly find a way to disassemble the opponent and dominate. Tonight, Al Iaquinta is the unfortunate victim.

Pass.

Jedrzejczyk -110 vs. Namajunas +100 (Woman’s Strawweight Championship)

This is a rematch of a November 2017 fight in New York City where Joana Jedrzeczyk opened -450 and closed just prior to the opening bell -710. For this battle in Brooklyn she opened -210 (a price I feel is an accurate reflection of this fight) and is currently -115. This is an overlay and there’s value on Joanna Champion for reasons beside the just the price.

Rose Namajunas is a fearless, well-rounded fighter who upset one of the most dominant women’s Champion’s in the UFC when she knocked out Joanna in November. Namajunas is almost as tall as Joanna, is five years younger and arguably has a more well-rounded skill set though she is nowhere near as capable a striker as Joanna (despite what transpired in the first fight). In the November title fight Joanna got ‘Rousey’ed’ if you will. She went from a humble, efficient, dedicated, focused fighting machine and morphed to one of the Kardashians in just three or four title defenses. Joanna, a small-town gal from outback Poland got quite comfortable wearing new Gucci, sporting designer jeans and taking private jets to conduct interviews while swilling on mimosa’s. What she was not doing was living in the gym and taking care of fight business which is what earned her the Championship.

Meteoric fame, overnight riches and instant notoriety are cancer for fighters and Joanna ate the cake like a fat kid at a birthday party leading up to that night in November. This was evident when she weighed in for the fight and especially so on fight night when she could barely compete past a minute into the first round.

I’m approaching the handicapping of this fight from a more psychological point of view.  Gauging each fighter’s perspective and mindset is entering this second fight is mandatory.

For Namajunas the spot is arduous. She’s not as dangerous a striker as Joanna and while perhaps more capable on the ground she’ll have trouble gaining inside position against a properly conditioned, focused, prepared Joanna. Namajunas must overcome Joanna’s 81% take down defense to keep from having to compete with her on the feet where she’ll be outmatched by a constant barrage of precision striking.

 Joanna meanwhile has defeated everyone she has faced (except for Rose) and is quite confident she can win this fight for she too is aware of the many distractions that caused her to lose focus on the title. She’s been training with the fervor and dedication that eluded her in preparation for their November fight as well she’s learned a most valuable lesson. Joanna is not only a top athlete in the UFC but dominant within her division. On Saturday night she’s steps into the Octagon a worthy -200 chalk (as I handicap this fight). It’s my opinion that it will be some time if any time before we may capture Joanna at a price this modest.

Saturday night we’ll see a focused determined ex-Champion and I believe she’ll add Rose Namajunas to list of ladies in the women’s Strawweight Division that have been jolted by Jedrzejczyk.

Jedrzejczyk -110

Kattar -110 vs. Moicano +100

We released this fight earlier this week Moicano +120. In this fight Moicano must deal with the aggressive boxing/striking base Kattar employs. Kattar will have a power advantage but only provided he can keep this standing. Moicano must be successful in gaining inside position and clasping onto the striker thus usurping some starch from Kattar’s striking.  If he can accomplish this, he may well be able to piece Kattar up anywhere this fight goes as we get into the second round and past. Moicano has faced a higher level of competition and is more complete as a fighter in my judgement. Kattar gains his PhD. In MMA tonight.

Moicano +100

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Moicano +120

(4-4-18 4:30pm EST)

Jedrzejczyk -115

released -130 @Twitter 3-12-18


UFC FN127 Werdum vs. Volkov: London Flog - 3/17/2018

The UFC continues to deliver world class mixed martial arts across the globe with a visit to London England for Saturday’s Fight Night 127 where Brazilian Fabricio ‘Vai Cavalo’ Werdum faces Russian Alexander ‘Drago’ Volkov in the Heavyweight main event. UFC cards outside the U.S. take on an international flavor as the UFC features each region’s top mixed martial artists and, in many cases, sets them up in ‘favorable’ circumstances. This fight card lacks star powered name recognition (outside of the main event) but it does feature interesting stylistic matchups and some rising regional talent.

Fabricio Werdum -210 vs. Alexander Volkov +180 Heavyweights (up to 265lbs.)

This fight is a perfect metaphor to what the late great boxing trainer Angelo Dundee described when he stated, ‘styles make fights’. The combatant that controls the middle of the Octagon takes the first important step in dictating where this fight takes place as each wants to compete against the other from differing tactical positions.

Werdum, at forty is experiencing a recent career resurgence for his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is (and always has been) world class, his striking has grown to be effective and the depth of competition he’s faced provides him a wealth of fight experience. Werdum is a well-rounded fighter but Saturday he’ll need to make this fight a maul on the mat if he hopes to have his hand raised as victor. He must eliminate distance by pressuring Volkov and making him backup. Werdum must work to get inside on the Russian to smother the larger, taller, longer striker thus neutralizing his punching power. Werdum, a skilled submission specialist must then force Volkov against the cage in order to clasp onto him so he can drag this fight to the floor where Volkov does not want to be. Werdum has just enough stand-up skill to strike with Volkov but only with the goal of gaining the clinch then forcing this fight down to the floor.

Werdum’s body of work is impressive and the competition he’s faced is world class, but his body also bears the brunt of some sixteen years of top level MMA competition. While he sports abundant experience Werdum has weathered various injuries and enters this fight Saturday with one most concerning issue; a suspect beak. Werdum’s chin and his history of being iced is an important aspect in this matchup. Knowing this, Werdum must be cautious entering and Volkov for his part, must not get to aggressive coming in or he’ll wind up being taken down and on the mat. Both combatants are keenly aware that Volkov possesses the power pulverize Werdum with one punch.

The challenge for Werdum is that he must find a way to negate the substantial striking length of Volkov as he attempts to maneuver inside. The power striking Russian’s goal will be to keep Werdum at distance with a punishing jab controlling the center of the Octagon. Center control is a key for he who controls the center of the Octagon can control the opponent by utilizing forward pressure.

 ‘Drago’ as Volkov is called enters this fight a relatively one-dimensional mixed martial artist in that his striking and Muay-Thai are excellent, but his wrestling and grappling are untested. Volkov will have a substantial youth advantage on Werdum as he’ll be the much larger, longer and stronger man in the Octagon. Werdum will try early and often to get to Volkov’s legs for the takedown which is of utter importance for his chances of winning. Volkov must rely on his effective take down defense and superior strength to counter the take down attempts from the Brazilian. Keeping this fight upright is critical for Volkov as it will enable him to work off a piston jab, straight right hand, teeps* and powerful knees.  Making Werdum pay a heavy price to try to get inside must be the goal for Volkov.

Volkov’s ability to evade takedowns is critical while the unrelenting efforts of Werdum to find his way into the clinch, then to the floor to secure the submission make this fight intriguing. Werdum is an experienced world class combatant looking to regain the heavyweight title but he’s entering the Octagon with a man that is eleven years younger, physically stronger, considerably larger and faster than he is.  Werdum will have to utilize all his savvy and skill to force Volkov into a mistake so he can take this fight to the mat for advantage.  In my judgement, counting on beguiling the opponent in a heavyweight fight is a lot to ask. Volkov’s strength, size, youth and power should enable him to overcome Werdum’s experience and guile in a fight where ‘father time’ remains undefeated.

Volkov +180

other releases:

Ware +310 (half)

Sobotta +190 (half)

Craig +600

(half added via Twitter)

Blachowicz/Manuwa Over 2.5 -120

(added via twitter)

Upcoming Fights

Here are two upcoming UFC fights I’ll eventually break down on Point Spread Weekly. I believe that the closer we get to each matchup these prices will move away from current pricing, so the recommendation is to invest now to obtain market advantage.

UFC 223 April 7, 2018

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -135 vs. Rose Namajunas + 125 Strawweight

When these two first tussled (November 2017) Joanna Champion opened a firm -450 and went off -755.  In this rematch, Joanna opened -210 and her price now is -140. Joanna’s glaring issue in her loss to Namajunas will not be an issue in this rematch and I disagree with the direction this price has taken.

Joanna -135

UFC Fight Night 129 April 21, 2018

Kevin Lee -120 vs. Edson Barboza -120

Capable top-level ex-college wrestlers (Lee) can be kryptonite to Jiu-Jitsu Muay-Thai based fighters (Barboza). Lee -120 is a bargain based on his recent schooling at the hands of Tony Ferguson and he will likely go off at a much higher price by the time they ring the bell for round one. I recommend grabbing the -120 now with the athletic, ill-intentioned, wrestling based fighter facing a Muay Thai striking based Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist.

Lee -120

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

  • Teeps are front push kicks utilized in mixed martial arts to both badger the incoming opponent as well to maintain distance from an incoming opponent.

UFC 222 Edgar vs. Ortega: Will T-City have 'the Answer' at T Mobile? - 3/3/2018

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 222. I’ll ask forgiveness today as today’s fight write ups will be brief. I am struggling with the Flu and simply don’t have the energy to rewrite everything discussed over this past week on the podcasts (Games Galore with Brian Edwards, Wagertalk with Scot Speitzer and of course our weekly rendezvous with Gabriel Morency and Cam Stewart on their live radio program Game Time Decisions).

All these segments are available via @Twitter for those interested in detailed breakdowns. I also was pleased to appear on VSiN’s ‘The Edge’ with Matt Youmans yesterday post weigh-ins and that segment can be viewed by going to VSiN.com. Just access the replay tab then find ‘The Edge’ Matt Youmans and Erin Rynning (3-2-18) I appear at the 1:41 mark of that show. In my weekly column for VSiN called ‘Insight the Octagon’, I did make a couple of releases. That column is below with an update from today for those of you who are not yet subscribing to that outstanding gaming newsletter. It’s important to note that these articles need to be submitted on Monday evening and much can change during fight week, so I’ll provide a comment at the end of each breakdown before listing the remaining fighters we’ll invest with tonight.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated.  We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time.  After all, it’s business).

‘Insight the Octagon’ published 2-28-18

The Women’s Featherweight title takes center stage Saturday as Brazilian Chris Cyborg -1650 faces Russian underdog Yana Kunitskaya +1100.  Cyborg is arguably the most dominant Women’s mixed martial artist alive.  She is powerful, explosive, and unyielding on the floor, standing, against the fence or in the clinch.  These ladies compete as Featherweight’s Saturday (145 lbs.) even though Kunitskaya has only fought at Bantamweight (135 lbs.) since 2015. Kunitskaya steps into this ‘mission impossible’ with four weeks’ notice so she’s had very little time to prepare for a larger, more skilled opponent. This mismatch is not main event status which is why I’ll focus on other fights this week. The real headliner Saturday is Edgar vs. Ortega which should be the main event and a five-round fight.

UFC 222 Edgar -180 vs. Ortega +160 Featherweights

Frankie Edgar is arguably the most complete mixed martial artist in the UFC. His wrestling base is world class, his grappling, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and striking have enabled him to remain dominant in the Lightweight/Featherweight divisions since early 2007 (Edgar held the lightweight title from 2010 to 2012). Edgar’s twenty-three fights in the UFC against the most capable fighters in the organization provide him vast experience and confidence.  His fight IQ, footwork, movement, grit and unrelenting pressure have made him a title contender since his arrival to the organization. A win over Ortega earns Edgar the elusive title Championship fight he was originally scheduled to compete in this past December. Edgar was injured in late 2017 postponing the first scheduled title fight then Holloway was injured prior to this scheduled title fight.  Edgar’s title opportunity has now morphed into an elimination bout. This is substantial psychologically as he must now take a step backwards to earn the title shot that he’d already been preparing himself for…twice.

So, Brian Ortega steps in on short notice to bypass Edgar as next in line for the Featherweight title. Edgar’s been preparing for a fighter with vastly different skills than Ortega.  Instead of a long, angular striker Edgar now faces a larger, younger, faster Jiu-Jitsu specialist in an elimination bout not a Championship one. It’s reasonable to question the affect the title delays and this opponent change will have on Edgar.  He’s now forced to deal with another world class mixed martial artist to earn his title opportunity. Edgar is aware of his age and limitations after years of epic battles and this is an arduous spot as these delays, setbacks, opponent changes may affect him adversely.

Brian Ortega has physical advantages over the 5’6” Edgar. Ortega will be the much larger heavier man in the Octagon when the bell rings Saturday night.  His height is listed as 5’8” but he towered over the 5’8” Cub Swanson in his last outing. I believe Ortega to be closer to 5’10”.  Ortega is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant trained by Rener Gracie since he was damn near in diapers. He had his first pro fight at nineteen. Ortega’s cerebral in his approach to fighting and has had to work diligently to incorporate striking skills to his game to complete himself as a World Class fighter. Ortega has always possessed lethal submission skill, but his improved striking has enabled him to compete with other striking based fighters until they make an error allowing Ortega to clasp on to them and choke them out. Ortega will have a slight reach advantage over Edgar, but his height will make him seem even longer when they are standing. Being seven years younger is also an edge for Ortega as fighters more than five years younger than their opponents hold a 62% advantage in fights since the UFC’s inception*.

Edgar opened -190 with the return on Ortega +180 (Pinnacle). This three-round fight comes down to whether Edgar has enough time to grind on Ortega, usurp his strength, control the ground position and wangle Ortega’s will. Edgar is more effective draining opponents over five-round fights as a three-round tilt favors the younger, faster man with less championship experience in my judgement. Frankie Edgar has been the poster boy for prepared, professional, polished mixed martial artists since his first fight in the UFC in 2007 but Saturday night the younger, larger Ortega is going to have the ability to vie with Edgar anywhere this fight takes place.

Ortega +160

Added 3-3-18: (We own advantage with Ortega +160 and still recommend him at any price +130 or better)

Soukhamthath -130 vs. O’Malley +115 Bantamweights

Sean O’Malley is a tall, lean, lanky striker who’s soared into recognition and popularity since his appearance on Dana White’s contender series.  Then this past December he won a three-round decision in his UFC debut. O’Malley has speed, length and explosion but he has not been chipped on the chin yet nor has he had to battle any opponent on the floor for any length of time.  He’s yet to experience any real difficulty inside the Octagon but against this striking-based opponent he will surely be tested in what appears to be a stand-up war.

Soukhamthath enters the cage Saturday night at 1-2 in the UFC but he just signed a five-fight extension with the organization. This extension suggests that the UFC views Soukhamthath as a fighter well more capable than his record suggests (as do I).  O’Malley will be the taller, longer man in this Bantamweight fight but Soukhamthath will be the stronger more powerful striker. In my judgement Soukhamthath’s experience, strength and ground capability make him a worthy favorite.

We’ve seen these lines move as we get closer to opening bell in past weeks. There could be O’Malley money as we approach Saturday, so I advise a modest position on Soukhamthath -130 now then patience waiting for a better price later in the week

Soukhamthath -130

Added 3-3-18: (this number did compress as we thought, now at pick-em (-105 on each fighter) We’ll add another half unit to the wager making a full unit position at a blended price of Soukhamthath -115).

 

Viera -195 vs. Zingano +180

I released Zingano +170 yesterday at weigh-ins and it has cost us a dime. Viera struggled to make weight and is a tough yet unproven and inexperienced fighter. She’s a grappler BJJ artist and must get this to the floor for advantage because her striking skills are unrefined to say it nicely. She jumps in with Zingano who has been honing her skills while she’s been away mending a knee. This line opened a pick-em now Zingano can be had +180. Zingano is a world-class fighter and an accomplished mixed martial artist. She’s set to outclass Viera in this fight tonight and I believe if anyone should be a slight chalk in this fight it’s Cat Zingano.

Zingano +180 (current)

Dern -420 vs. Yoder +380

Dern is a savant BJJ artist but is short, has a sizable reach deficit in this fight and it is her UFC debut. I also question her toughness and ability to grind out a full three rounds. While she is worthy of being a favorite against Yoder she is in no way should be -420 chalk against a fighter who has ten years’ experience in MMA and three UFC fights under her belt. Dern must get this fight to the floor and quickly if she is to submit Yoder because if the longer, talker, larger Yoder is able to weather the early storm and find herself in round two I believe she has a great chance to win this fight.

Yoder +380 (half released earlier this week)

Stamman -130 vs. Caraway +120

Stamman has a solid wrestling foundation, he can strike successfully with the fighters in the division as well he’s tougher than a two-dollar steak. In his two UFC Bantamweight appearances he’s showed up as the underdog and licked two worthy opponents in Tom Duquesnoy and Terrion Ware. Stamman is taking a step up in class but I feel it is a step up in name recognition only for Caraway must prove himself to be the same fighter now that he was prior to the many issues he’s had to face to get here. Caraway’s been off for almost two years undergoing shoulder surgery and healing a knee. He also lost long-time girlfriend (Meisha Tate) who’s now engaged, pregnant and moving on. Moreover, his longtime trainer and mentor/coach passed away during this period. Caraway arrived in Vegas sick for it was apparent in an interview this week (with John Morgan of the MMA Junkie) that he was couching, sniffling and clearing throat even though he told Morgan that it was allergies. Stamman is a tough first opponent for anyone let alone someone having to face these emotional and physical obstacles.

Stamman -130

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

•          @Megalocksinsidr provided this statistic

 


UFC Fox 28 Stephens vs. Emmettt Lights-Out in Orlando - 2/25/2018

Stephens -145

Latife +135

Griffen +320 (half)

Moroz +140 (half)

(added via @Twitter)