Welcome fight Enthusiasts to a most anticipated fight card. Since time began there has been fighting and since fighting began bystanders have begged for big boys to battle. Tonight’s main event was covered in comprehensive fashion in our article for VSiN (Vegas Stats and Information Network, @VSiNlive on Twitter) earlier this week. We’ll be offering MMA angles and Intel in a weekly column with VSiN on their weekly publication called “Point Spread Weekly” my column is entitled, “Insight the Octagon”. I’ll post the column from VSiN here today with the disclosure that “Point Spread Weekly” is a subscription based newsletter. That sai,d the meager fee associated with this publication is a pittance based on the comprehensive gaming intel provided in each edition.
(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard/hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is recorded and accounted for each Monday AM in the “Money Morning’ report. On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events we work is available on the ‘Profitability’ tab located at the top of the Gamblou.com webpage. This tab displays win percentages, gross profit and bottom line profitability up to date in real time. After all, it’s business).
Here's my “Insight the Octagon” piece (main event) which appeared on Point Spread weekly this past Wednesday 1-17-18.
Welcome to Insight the Octagon. The goal of these columns will be to breakdown upcoming UFC fights while imparting some of the reasoning behind the releases made. I approach handicapping as running a business and over the four plus decades ‘investing’ in sporting events I have come to adhere to an ‘underdog’ philosophy whether money line wagering or if utilizing point spreads. The Money line is used to wager on UFC fights. Seeking out and embracing the ‘mangy mutt’ (a term used for underdog) is a staple to the business I call Profitable Sports Gaming.
I released 118 (half-unit or one unit only) UFC positions over the course 2017 (444 total fights).
2017 results: 54-64 (45.76%), +15.78 total units, ROI 14.18% (average price per release +148)
My philosophy for profitability in betting the UFC involves employing three fundamentals: comprehensive due diligence; supreme selectivity and regular (public) money management.
John Crouch, Owner of the MMALab in Glendale, AZ. and former Gracie Academy teaching instructor in an article titled, Technique Talk* says it well when asked what were MMA fighter’s biggest improvements during 2017, “Martial arts and fighting, and pretty much life, comes down to good fundamentals. That's my opinion. I learned good fundamentals where I came from and all great coaches are good fundamentalists*.
Professional gamblers strive to uncover value in each investment and regard acquiring price advantage over the closing line as critically important. I work tirelessly to obtain that advantage and will look forward to sharing my insights with Point spread weekly readers. Investing in underdogs and striving to reach the 50%-win rate is the goal each year so let’s see how 2018 unfolds.
Miocic +165 vs. Ngannou -190
Stipe Miocic is going to defend his Heavyweight title and shows up to Boston Saturday as the underdog. His challenger, Francis Ngannou is a monstrously muscled destroyer who employs profuse punching power, stupendous strength and complete confidence in his ability to unplug anyone he pops on the point. Ngannou has six fights in his just over two years since he joined the UFC and has finished each opponent. He seems destined to be a star in the UFC and his rapid rise to the height of the division can be explained by his impressive physique, his sensational knockout power and the general lack of talent in the HW division. But with all that said, we do have reservation about this spot for an inexperienced and more importantly untested Francis Ngannou who’s not been taken into the third round of a UFC fight. Other than a very young Curtis Blaydes, Ngannou has been set up with perfectly picked pugilists who have acquiesced by engaging with him on the feet without any threat of the take down or even any attempt to stick and move to make the monster utilize energy to try to take him deep into a fight and test his will. Ngannou at this point in his development is quite one dimensional though that dimension has been effective based on his athleticism, raw power and his opponent’s willingness to stand there with him. He’s winning by utilizing pure power only and has not been forced to the floor to fight nor has he been chipped yet on the chin. While explosive early Ngannou’s not particularly quick and he throws as Angelo Dundee would say, ‘Sunday shots’ (because you can see the punches coming from last Sunday). In my judgement, Ngannou is susceptible to an experienced fighter who can employ defensive tactics, constant movement and precision striking with some wrestling folded in to sap the savage of his strength. The plan must be to take Ngannou deep into a fight to test his conditioning and especially his chin for the man has yet to be busted on the beak. We feel Miocic or perhaps even a healthy Cain Velasquez are the only Heavyweights capable of presenting a plan that can pose problems for the Predator.
Heavyweight Champion Stipe Miocic is an underdog in the third defense of his title. The Champ is a firefighter from Cleveland whose fight arsenal is complete with athleticism, precision punching, power, effective movement and conditioning. He has the strength and size to stand up to Ngannou, he’s well more experienced than the challenger and has been in the Octagon with the most powerful punchers in the game. Miocic possesses a complete fight arsenal and must execute a plan to make the monster chase him, he must pump a steady, straight, stinging jab in Ngannou’s face while utilizing movement which hopefully results in Ngannou having to utilize energy to chase, engage and battle. Miocic must use movement and precision punches to force the power puncher into becoming anxious to engage and therefore render the beast somewhat vulnerable as he forges his way toward Miocic to throw down. It’s much easier to take an opponent down if said opponent is incoming as it contributes to leverage. If Miocic can execute then perhaps the challenger gets a bit careless on his way into engagement which may allow Miocic to manage the monster to the mat. Again, constant movement, accumulated precision punching and eventual take downs are one effective way to battle this beast. Miocic is well trained and has the support of a champion. Miocic opened +130 and is now +165. As in many sporting events the wave of betting action usually shows on the day of the event.
I like the direction this line is moving and will jump if there is even a penny of price regression but until then I advise patience for the ‘recency theory’ is never more applicable than in the fight game and Ngannou’s demolition of Overeem will have the public picking the Predator.
Miocic +165 or better Fight starts Round 2 -105 (added Saturday 1-20-18)
One note: It’s important to understand that I write these on Mondays each week and UFC events occur mostly on the following Saturday. Therefore, at times we may ask readers to understand that prices and circumstances may change during the week. Updated fight information and UFC Insight is available to all at the GambLou.com webpage. We post all fight releases on the morning of the fights and look forward to sharing our Mixed Martial Arts passion with you here at Point Spread Weekly.
*Article written by Luke Thomas MMA Fighting.com entitled: “Technique Talk: Experts discuss biggest areas of evolution in MMA in 2017”
UFC 220 other releases
Almeida -105 vs. Font -105
Font’s a fighter who’ll come right out and get banging. He’s got power good range and a solid chin. I believe this fight is going to be a more savage stand-up tussle than chess match which favors Font only for the first four minutes or so. Almeida who is a consummate slow starter is the younger, more athletic man who’s still improving at the age of 26 while Font (30) is a middle of the division talented fighter trying to step up. The Brazilian opened -175 and has been in with the top of the Division only losing to Garbrandt and Riviera, two World Class Mixed martial artists. Almeida and Font will trade but we feel it will Be Almeida who survives this striking affair.
Davis -135 vs. Bochniak +125
Davis the bigger, longer, younger striker in the cage tonight against a local fighter in Bochniak that has desperation as his motivator for his results have been poor against dubious competition to this point in his UFC run. This release is a fade of Bochniak who must try to get this fight to the floor to have any chance to win for in the judgement of we here at GambLou.com world HQ Bochniak will feed himself to Davis as Bochniak must find his way inside the Davis reach to make this his fight. Meanwhile, the high paced, ill-intentioned Davis is going to try to bop Bochniak on the beak on his way in. Pace, power and pressure are keys to Davis getting his hand raised here.
Davis -135 (half)
Razak Alhassan -180 vs. Homasi +170
The first fight these two engaged in was stopped by mistake just this past December (Razak Alhassan was awarded a TKO late in round 1 on an unusual looking slip that was mistaken by the Ref as a shut off shot). In that fight R-A threw everything he had at Homasi who at times was stunned yet forged his way forward into the fracas with the hope of trying to grind the gargantuan swinging Ghanan down and gain control of the fight. This was beginning to occur when in an exchange the fight was suddenly stopped (no disagreement with stoppage as the way Homasi slipped is a textbook look for Ref to step in). Razak Hassan’s reaction was that of almost disbelieve coupled with relief and joy. Tonight, this rematch comes down to fight IQ in my estimation for if Razak Hassan goes out as poorly paced as he did in December then he best take Homasi out early. Homasi showed great toughness, grit and determination in December and his camp knows the way to earn this win is to grind the Ghanan down over time then get on top to reign supreme. Homasi has been hit on the head and put out in his past and Razak Hassan tried to light him up last out. He has power, but does he have the pace and a plan?
Homasi +175 (half)
Profitable Sports Gaming