for final UFC releases please access the 'Bout Business Podcast available wherever podcasts are distributed...

originally published 9-22 VSiN's 'Point Spread Weekly' 

Favorites achieved a 10-2-1 result in last week’s UFC Las Vegas 37 event making them an even 60% proposition thus far in 2021 (194-107-10).

Nate Maness who closed +175 produced .88 units though he did not win via decision which cost us a half unit. My main event prediction of Anthony Smith was accurate as he took care of Ryan Spann in a round. Insight the Octagon 2021 profitability stands 22-18 +7.26u with an open parlay to Anthony Smith -165 awaiting fulfillment.

This week UFC 266 offers fight enthusiasts a loaded fight card stacked with interesting match-ups and plenty of high-priced favorites. Let’s dig right in!

Alexander Volkanovski -160 vs. Brian Ortega +140 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

In 2018 Ortega faced Max Holloway for the Featherweight championship. What was clear for all to witness in that fight was Ortega’s lack of fluid striking ability coupled with ineffective strike defense as Ortega stopped most of Max’s strikes with his face. Fans also witnessed his toughness and determination in the face of the one-sided beatdown he absorbed from Holloway.

Then in October of last year after almost two years Ortega took a fight with a master of striking in Chan Sung Jung, the Korean Zombie. The improved striking Ortega displayed in that bout along with his fluidity of defensive movement was surprising to the MMA community for such dynamic improvement was unexpected.  Clearly Ortega addressed his needs and came back a more complete fighter but I’ll also state that the Zombie takes plenty of strikes in his fights and in my judgement is not an elite top five in this division.

Ortega’s forte lies in his mastery of BJJ as he is a first-degree black belt under Rener Gracie yet what we witnessed after the long layoff between the Holloway bout and the Zombie result was that Ortega went into the gym with some new coaches and developed a most effective striking component to his BJJ mastery.

Ortega arrives at this bout the younger, taller man and though he’ll not have a reach advantage his current form forces his consideration.

All fights begin on the feet so while Ortega’s plan of action still calls for taking fights to the mat, he appears equipped to compete standing especially against a man he’ll have some height over.

Eventually Ortega must compete with Volkanovski on the mat but he’s more equipped now to be able to strike with Volkanovski until the time he decides to attempt the take down. Ortega’s path to victory lies in his ability to get Volkanovski to the mat in my judgement.

Champion Volkanovski was once a two hundred plus pound Rugby player with legs as thick as tree trunks. Now he's 145lb. championship fighter with explosion that emits from his powerful legs and core.

Volkanovski has a pronounced wrestling base, a brown belt in BJJ as well an effective Muay Thai striking arsenal complimented by some of the nimblest feet in the division. It was those feet and his striking which allowed him to beat former champion Max Holloway on two separate occasions.

Volkanovski trains at New Zealand’s City Kickboxing, a gym whose fighters all possess tremendous confidence (led by Volkanovski and middleweight Champion Israel Adesanya) though because of lockdowns etc. In Australia he was unable to train there and managed to prepare for this bout with his coach and separate training partners.

It must be stated however that these two were to tussle in March and unfortunately for fight fans Volkanovski got Covid so both men’s training extended in essence to a double camp. Volkanovski did prepare at City in anticipation for his fight in March.

Volkanovski’s striking comes from his athleticism, he is power based, diverse and unrelenting in forward striking/kicking pressure. His wrestling is foundational to his fight arsenal and if we see it, I believe it will be in the form of take down defense as opposed to Volkanovski initiating any up tight and personal contact. Lastly, Volkanovski's stocky, compact anvil-like physique coupled with his insane strength make him, a man with almost no neck, almost impossible to submit.

In this fight, Ortega’s height/size may allow him to effectively compete with Volkanovski on the feet until which time Volkanovski earns his way inside the pocket in order to barrage the body of Ortega with power hooks and crosses.

Ortega must not allow Volkanovski to gain close, inside proximity to him when these men are upright. He must use movement in order to keep this fight at distance when it is on the feet. If this bout hits the floor, as I believe Ortega needs it to, it is my experience that the wrestling-based fighter is usually at advantage for many reasons. That said, it’s the level of ability that matters and these two both have masterful levels of fight acumen even though they present it in varying styles.

This fight must hit the floor for Ortega to display dominance while Volkanovski is confident that he can best Ortega standing from inside position as well control him with his wrestling from top position.

Both men arrive at the large cage at the T-Mobile arena with confidence brimming and a little angst for one another as they both coached the TUF last season where each man got to know one another pretty well.

Some consideration in my prediction for this bout comes from what I learned watching this TUF series, especially the dealings between Volkanovski and Ortega’s teams and how each regarded them. Yes, that’s very intangible but that’s input I cannot disregard.

Volkanovski -160

Total for this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -135 …it opened 4.5 Rds. Over -170 FYI

Shevchenko -1500 vs. Lauren Murphy +900 Woman’s Flyweight (125lbs.) Championship

Valentina Shevchenko is pound for pound the most dangerous women's mixed martial artist of all time and that includes Amanda Nunes. Those wanting to debate me on that will understand that the discussion will never be settled. The fact that 125-pound Champion Shevchenko had to compete against Nunes at bantamweight (135lbs.) not Shevchenko’s lighter weight class. It’s my contention that if you put those two ladies in a cage at 130lbs, Shevchenko would dominate Amanda Nunes.

But this fight features Shevchenko and Lauren Murphy.

Murphy is tough as a three-dollar steak, she’s durable, well rounded and a perfect example of the mass of athletes in the women’s flyweight division that are classed together in talent levels well behind champion Shevchenko and Brazilian fighter Jessica Andrade.

Deliberate, plodding and relatively stationary in exchanges Murphy is more a grizzled determined individual who through toughness, grit and determination has earned this opportunity. The fact that she’s completely outclassed in this situation does not faze her for she has deep belief and she is used to playing the underdog.

Shevchenko is a bred fighting machine. She’s versed in every fighting dialect and she’s athletic, lighting fast, precise with leg/arm strikes and dominant with her wrestling/grappling. 

In no way shape or form do I believe that Murphy can compete with Shevchenko in this spot other than forcefully walking toward Shevchenko which happens to be the way Murphy fights. Murphy’s approach against Shevchenko, a deft counter-striker is what exciting fights are made of but this exciting fight is going to be one-sided and unfortunately violent. 

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -110

This is a fight that I’ll pass on for now.

Merab Dvalishvili -230 vs. Marlon Moraes +195 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Moraes is the sixth ranked bantamweight facing the eleventh ranked fighter in the same division and it is Moraes that is the +195 underdog!

Moraes is a decorated mixed martial artist who comes loaded with explosion, quickness, striking/kicking precision and power. What he struggles with is the ability to extend those traits past five minutes in his bouts.

Dvalishvili is a potential champion in this division. A dominant wrestler with unending cardio ability Dvalishvili out hustles, out works, out performs opponents with his unrelenting wrestling and his ability to fight for ten rounds let alone three.

Fight traits where Moraes is dominant are the same areas where Dvalishvili is developing and where Dvalishvili is most gifted in fighting form, Moraes is developing so the question becomes: Which fighter is going to inflict their dominance on the other?

Dvalishvili needs to make sure he is evasive and out of range for Moraes early in this fight when Moraes is his most explosive, precise and powerful. Dvalishvili will strive to earn his way inside the ferocious striker/kicker in order to both negate Moreas’ striking and in turn smother the striker’s offense with takedowns, top control and unrelenting ground and pound.

Dvalishvili must take this bout into the second round where his pressure wrestling based on unending cardio will overwhelm a most capable mixed martial artist in Moraes.

Dvalishvili -230/Smith -165 +1.31

As a second leg to Anthony Smith -165 last week.

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou.com 

Profitable Sports Gaming

*NFL releases found by accessing the 'NFL' tab at the top of this webpage

Final comments, releases for UFC LV37 can be accessed by listening to the 'Bout Business Podcast available at Apple or wherever podcasts are offered. 

Published 9-15 VSiN's 'Point Spread Weekly' 

The APEX facility again hosts this week’s UFC Las Vegas 37 event where there are fifteen bouts scheduled featuring fighters from ten differing Countries. While name recognition for the production is somewhat lacking outside of the main event make no mistake that there are several ‘barnburner’ type bouts on this fight card.

Two weeks ago, our parlay filled with Modestus Bukauskas as a slight favorite was decimated when Bukauskas walked into a leg kick and was incapacitated and unable to finish. Insight the Octagon profitability for the year therefore stands 21-17 +6.88u.

Anthony Smith -165 vs. Ryan Spann +145 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Main Event

Ryan Spann, 30 is the eleventh ranked light heavyweight in the division. Spann is 6’5” and sports an 81.5-inch reach both of which contribute to his fundamental strength in the octagon which is aggressive forward pressure striking and kicking.

Spann’s won four of his last five bouts but against competition that in many ways pales in comparison to that of his opponent. A blue belt in BJJ Spann has one way to win, by walking opponents down, backing them up then barraging them with elbows, knees, fists and kicks.

Spann’s extremely athletic and unusually lengthy for the division. While he shows several submissions on his record it must be stated those occurred in match-ups where the competition was not UFC level save for the bout in 2019 against Devin Clark an unranked fighter.

Spann will immediately force the fight and try to press Smith backwards using pressure, aggression and frenetic striking for he is aware that if he can back Smith up his full arsenal of strikes/kicks are available to him. Spann must keep this fight standing and at distance in order to hold advantage.

Spann, though singularly dimensioned as a fighter usually starts quickly but this approach works only so long until one earns their way into the top fifteen of the division. There any athlete faced is going to be equipped with a plethora of world class fighting skills and prepared cardio vascularly to fight a full twenty-five minutes with intensity and physicality. 

Which introduces us to sixth ranked Anthony Smith who enters this main event off two straight victories. A submission win over the aforementioned Clark followed by a victory over up-and-coming elite talent Jimmy Crute due to a doctor’s stoppage.

Smith will be giving away an inch of height, two inches of arm reach and three years of age to his opponent however advantage for Smith lies in the caliber of fighters he’s faced as well as the fact that he is a much more well-rounded fighter with a substantial advantage on the mat. Based on MMA weaponry Smith who has fifty professional bouts to his credit is the more complete mixed martial artist.

When the bell rings, Smith will strive to maintain his cool early when Spann is raging which is actually a strength of this grizzled veteran. Smith remaining measured while on the feet will allow him to time the incoming slugger for clinch opportunities and ultimately take downs.

Smith’s extensive ground ability and vast experience provide him certain advantage in this matchup. He’s experienced five round bouts prior beating Alexander Gustafsson, dropping a decision to Jon Jones then he was finished at the hands of current number one ranked challenger Glover Teixeira while this is Spann’s first visit into main event status.

By forcing this fight to the ground early and often Smith forces Spann to absorb damage as well as expend precious energy. By the late second or early third round we may witness the fight being sucked away from Spann as he is forced to compete against a higher pedigreed mixed martial artist than he. Provided Smith can navigate the first round of this bout I believe he is in position to prosper in this spot.

Smith -165 (leg one open parlay)

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Under -135

Ion Cutelaba -145 vs. Devin Clark +125 Light Heavyweight co main event

Both main events are light heavyweight division scraps so we’ll witness large men competing in a small cage which is bound to enhance engagement. In this fight we have a couple of unranked athletes each trying to earn their way into the top fifteen. As discussed, Clark has faced both of the main event competitors and has been bested by each.

Clark had won a couple straight fights until last November when he was submitted by Smith. He’s a bit undersized but makes up for that by being quick and athletic in the cage. Clark displays effective striking and has a solid wrestling base which is important because in this bout, he’ll need to take his opponent down to the mat if he is to capture advantage in this confrontation.

Ion Cutelaba is a Moldovan fighter long on rage, aggression and angst. Cutelaba has sambo, wrestling and Judo backgrounds but he rarely uses or displays those skills in his fights instead opting to buzzsaw his way into and through opponents via wild, flailing, powerful striking.

Cutelaba is 1-3-1 in his last five fights, his only win over Kahlil Roundtree in 2019 today looks pretty impressive after witnessing Roundtree a couple of weeks ago.

In this fight Clark’s going to have to find a way to get inside the mad Moldavian, clasp onto him and drag him down to the floor. From there advantage lies in gaining top position to both squelch Cutelaba’s striking power and in turn inflict his own damage on ‘the hulk’.

Cutelaba will do all he can to keep this bout standing. He’ll apply blitzing forward pressure complimented by profuse power striking to back Clark up and force Clark to engage in a stand-up brawl where Cutelaba is at his best.

This fight will hold intrigue as long as Clark can withstand Cutelaba’s pressure and address it with wrestling. If Clark is unable to gain inside position on this maniacal Moldovan and force him to the floor it could be a long night for the fighter from South Dakota.

Lean Cutelaba

Total for this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -130

Tony Gravely -170 vs. Nate Maness +150 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Gravely’s Pop’s was a Tae Kwon Doe practitioner so that specialty was instilled in him in his childhood, he complimented it in grade school/high school with wrestling so he’s competent everywhere. Gravely’s a short, stocky keg of dynamite, he is tough, durable, explosive and can win fights via submission or KO/TKO. Gravely’s has an experience advantage in this bout and has faced a more respected level of UFC competition.

In Maness we have a fighter on the ascent. Maness is five inches the taller man in the cage, he’ll have a three-inch reach advantage with arms and a couple inches with legs. Maness’ size and fighting arsenal will allow him to flow while this fight is standing which is where he’ll want to keep it. Maness’ wrestling is developed enough to allow him to compete on the mat in so far as he’ll use wrestling to return to a standing position where he’ll be able to re-engage his incoming opponent on the feet.

While Gravely has an edge in experience it is Maness whom I believe is the more complete UFC caliber fighter. The opportunity to side with the larger, longer fighter as underdog in what seems to play out as a stand-up bout interests me. Provided Maness is prepared to address and overcome the early, unrelenting pressure wrestling from Tony Gravely, he stands a great chance at an upset.

Maness +150 (half unit)

Maness via decision +280 (half)

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -180

Final releases for UFC LV37 will be published Saturday AM on my ‘Bout Business Podcast. Look for that on Apple and Spotify platforms.

Enjoy the fights and thank You for reading

GambLou.com

'Bout Business Podcast

Profitable Sports Gaming

*NFL Week 1 releases can be veiwed by accessing the 'NFL' tab at the top of this webpage

GambLou.com lifetime and season by season win percentages, gross profit and ROI are readily available by accessing the 'Profitability' tab at the top of this page. Try to find that statement and that data anywhere else my friends.  

9-5 10:51am PT

I'll be visiting Las Vegas this week to finalize games of the year and future wagers. It's likely that I don't play pre-flop NFL season win total 'Over's' until a week or two into the season.

Week 1 NFL will be published sometime next week prior to opening kick-off Thursday. Check the 'NFL' tab for all NFL releases. 

Browns Under 10.5 +100

Dolphins Under 9.5 -110

8-13 8:12p PT

NFL Season Win Totals Buc's Under 12 -105 

For final releases and comments please access the "Bout Business podcast link:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gamblous-bout-business-mma-podcast/id1582936446?i=1000534266537

originally published 9/1 'Point Spread Weekly'

This week’s UFC fight card takes place at the APEX center in Las Vegas after originally being scheduled for London, England. Because of this we’ll see a handful of English fighters as well plenty of international flavor on this slate. It’s unfortunate that the many international fighters comprising this card are now forced to travel to the US as opposed to staying home or in relatively close confines of their homeland. Travel is absolutely a factor in in UFC bouts.

Last week Giga Chikadze as a slight underdog overwhelmed favorite Edson Barboza in the main event costing us -1.1 units. Chikadze’s length, movement and precision striking were simply too much for a grizzled veteran in Barboza. My other release, Daniel Rodriguez was a different story as he did force this bout into the second round and later where his size and superior striking earned him victory as an underdog +130.

2021 Insight the Octagon: 21-16 +7.88u with Cannonier -160 parlay leg 1 in pocket.

Derek Brunson +160 vs. Darren Till -180 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Fifth ranked middleweight Brunson arrives one undervalued combatant for this bout. His recent history displays dominating performances over highly regarded Edmund Shabahzyan and Kevin Holland.

Brunson, thirty-seven has faced a superior level of competition in his years in the UFC and with this bout he will again be tested by a fighter who is younger than he and one that’s again striking based as his last two opponents have been.

Brunson’s decorated with a brown belt in BJJ to supplement his DII NCAA wrestling pedigree. He’s on a resurgence of late and he’s taking great pleasure in bursting the bubbles of the young talent that is supposedly in position to upset the older grizzled veteran of the cage.

The intent of this originally scheduled London, England production was to fuel UFC’s growth in Europe, especially England by highlighting Englishman and seventh ranked middleweight Darren Till as well others from his camp and the region. Those fighters from England and abroad who now must endure the travails of travel lose some of their potential advantage by the change in locations no doubt.

Decorated in Muay Thai and Luta Livra Esportiva, a grappling/judo variant seventh ranked Till chooses to fight opponents standing. He possesses decent footwork for a man his size and though he will be giving away height and reach advantages to Brunson make no mistake that while this fight is on the feet it will be Till controlling pace and performance by pumping jabs and combinations at his incoming opponent.

Till beat a depleted Kelvin Gastelum in his inaugural middleweight bout in late 2019 then got beaten in unanimous decision fashion by champion Robert Whittaker in his last bout which was July of last year. Since the move to middleweight Till’s been relatively inactive driven by his constant battle with injuries to key fighting appendages. These together force me to regard him as untested and unproven at this weight class.  

As I handicap this bout as a five-round affair, I also concern myself with Brunson’s age. At Thirty-seven he’s still fighting with great confidence and yes he is coming off of a five round decision win but that was Kevin Holland and this opponent will be more forceful on the feet than Holland was as well I believe he’ll be well more difficult to drag down to the dirt.

Where this fight occurs will be an indicator of who will get their hand raised as I see Brunson having a dominant outing if he is able to take Till down to the floor and ring him up especially if he can accomplish this early.

However, if Brunson is forced to spend twenty-five minutes on the feet with Till attempting to gain inside position without any successful clasping, groping or clinching then he will have great difficulty competing effectively as Till’s footwork and striking will overwhelm the cagey veteran.

Total for this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -150

Tom Aspinal -260 vs. Sergei Spivak +230 Heavyweight (265lbs.) co main event

Aspinal, thirteenth ranked fights out of the same gym as fellow countryman Darren Till and arrives fresh off his third UFC finish, a rear naked choke of durable heavyweight Andrei Arlovski back in February.

Aspinal is well rounded supplementing his BJJ black belt with effective striking. He’s young, fast, improving and regarded by the organization and handicappers alike as a rising European draw in a thinly talented division.

Spivak arrives into this fight on short notice as Aspinal had another opponent originally scheduled.

Spivak is a twenty-six-year-old Ukrainian fighter who is 4-2 in the UFC and has won his last three bouts. Ranked fourteenth in the division, Spivak jumps at this opportunity to further his career and ranking by potentially topping the heavy favorite in this fight.

Spivak hits sin city with some intestinal fortitude to match his momentum. He’s a couple years younger than Aspinal and giving away 2” of height but these two are pretty even physically.

Aspinal is a finisher and perhaps they’ve tossed Spivak in to be the mark in this fight however Spivak’s experience, his momentum, his own improvement and the fact that he takes this fight voluntarily and on short notice indicates to me that he is out to prove something.

Total for this fight 1.5Rds. Under -140

Lean Over 1.5 +120

Modestus Bukauskas -155 vs. Khalil Roundtree +135 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

This is a desperation duel here as each man has lost their last two bouts.

Roundtree fights between Phuket Island and Syndicate MMA in Las Vegas so this is a home situation for him regarding travel allowing him to prepare solely for this fight. He has displayed dynamic inconsistency during his five-year UFC stint. Roundtree’s effective striking/kicking won him bouts early in his career but as he has climbed the ranks of the division, he’s struggled to transfer his power or any consistency along the way.

To be effective in this bout Roundtree must back Bukauskas up which will allow him to utilize his best weapon, leg kicks. If Roundtree is able to hold the center of the octagon and back Bukauskas up he’ll have advantage in this bout. 

Bukauskas is a Lithuanian fighting out of England so instead of this being a home situation for him, he is the one that must endure the travel and all it entails in order to earn victory and further his career.

Bukauskas who has faced a far superior level of competition than has his opponent is a large man, he’ll be two inches taller, four years younger and he’ll have a four-inch reach advantage in a fight that’s expected to be a stand-up affair.

Bukauskas is of kickboxing background. Keeping Roundtree at distance, backing him up and at the end of his leg/arm strikes is his plan. How Roundtree handles the pressure and precision striking of Bukauskas is critical.

Bukauskas -155

leg 2 of the open parlay with Cannonier -160: +1.67u

Total in this Fight: 1.5 over -125

Lean Over

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to what may be the final time that I publish GambLou.com Saturday UFC final releases on the webpage.

Beginning next week, the GambLou.co webpage will offer readers free access to my new podcast where some hours prior to each UFC fight card I will summarize/finalize all official GambLou.com releases.

I’ve teamed up with some power punching producers of pods, Green Roll Media to introduce GambLou’s ‘Bout business podcast.

The pod will be concise and is aimed at providing listeners my final releases for that day’s fight slate as well as any future UFC fights that need to be addressed via conversation or moved upon ASAP.

I’ll have the opportunity to provide more entailed breakdowns of each of the official releases made weekly as well as offer brief thoughts on any other UFC gaming related information. I hope you will all listen in!

As will always be the case my ‘Point Spread Weekly’ article for VSiN will appear below only next week all final thoughts will be accessed via the ‘Bout Business podcast.

--Let’s Fight--

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s ‘Bout Business.

Originally published 8-25 Point Spread Weekly

We march forward with another UFC fight slate from the APEX in Las Vegas. This LV35 production features a main event clash of top Featherweight contenders. The co-main event as well the main event of the prelims are final bouts for the organization’s TUF series. I’ll have no opinion on those athletes until after they’ve competed Saturday.

In last week’s fight card Jared Cannonier executed close to a perfect plan against a fighter in Kelvin Gastelum who few middleweights would have beaten that night. Cannonier’s focus, his footwork, his dedication to maintaining distance all synced up perfectly to earn a dominant decision win. Cannonier opened -200 for this fight and a tsunami of ‘steam’ pressed Cannonier’s price down to -130 at close.

As Mr. Warren Buffet famously spoke, “price is what you pay, value is what you get”

Mark O. Madsen also won his fight via decision though the way he won surprised as he battled Guida on the feet for the duration of the bout. Madsen is a decorated Olympian but he’s a fade moving forward in mixed martial arts fight fans. Lastly, my big bomb underdog Fabio Cherant did just that…he got disintegrated racing into engage a vicious power striker in William Knight, so we split releases with Cannonier waiting to be utilized.

Insight the Octagon 2021: 20-15 +7.68u (Cannonier -160 leg 1 parlay remains open)

Giga Chikadze -110 vs. Edson Barboza -110 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Georgian Chikadze, the tenth ranked featherweight enters this fight off a devastating finish of former top ten ranked Cub Swanson in his last outing. Prior to that fight Chikadze has competed with and beaten rank and file featherweight talent but in impressive fashion. He arrives to this opportunity on a 6-0 UFC run so he’s rife with momentum and confidence.

Chikadze, a third-degree black belt in Goja-Ryu Karate employs a wide stance presenting opponents with unorthodox, lethal hand/foot striking quickness that’s launched from all angles. He is best at distance/space and wants to measure opponents on their way in so he may apply his effective counterstriking.

Brazilian Edson Barboza, the ninth ranked featherweight is also a striking based fighter. He is decorated with black belts in Taekwondo and Muay Thai with a brown belt in BJJ. Barboza spent years competing against the ultra-elite Lightweight fighters before dropping down to Featherweight where he has realized a 2-1 record (many fight enthusiasts believe his debut loss to Dan Ige was actually a victory which would make him undefeated in the division).

Physical metrics between these two are quite even though it must be noted that Barboza spent years in the cage fighting men that weighed up to 175lbs +/- on the night of the fight.  These men are even similar in the striking approach they employ though it must be noted that Barboza is a fighter who can and will press forward to ‘make a fight’. Be certain that will be his plan Saturday.

The difference in this fight is found in in the depth of experience and guile of Edson Barboza. It would take a paragraph to list the world class competitors he has faced in furious battle between two divisions of the UFC while his opponent may boast only of a dominant win over thirty-seven-year-old Cub Swanson who is now on the last legs of a storied career.

In fights where Barboza struggles his opponents walk him down and force him into large expenditures of energy which taxes the Brazilian and can expose the warrior mentally and physically later in fights. Chikadze has not really forced this form of pressure on opponents in prior bouts so if he allows Barboza to work comfortably in space, moving forward and over time, Barboza’s precision striking and bludgeoning leg kicks will take a toll on a fighter in Chikadze that may stand to earn his PhD in MMA.

Barboza -110 (pending weigh-ins)

Total in this Fight: 4.5 Rds. Under -120

Kevin Lee -150 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +130 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Fascinating betting match-up here.

Lee is actually the tenth ranked Lightweight fighter who missed weight in his last lightweight bout against now champion Charles Oliviera. In all honesty in that bout and prior Lee’s had to battle weight cuts for he is an athlete perfectly suited to a 160lb weight class. Too large to consistently make 155lbs. he must now compete at the Welterweight level where he’ll be somewhat undersized and competing with combatants that make 170 at weigh-ins then arrive to the bout at a re-hydrated 188lbs. or better.

Lee’s fighting arsenal is complete with a sturdy wrestling base, he’s athletic, quick and is most dangerous early in his fights based on his lightweight resume. I expect at welterweight Lee will be free to focus on his opponent and not the cut which is huge for his chances Saturday or for that matter…any day.

Lee was originally set to face Sean Brady a wrestling-based fighter with heavy hands. He’s more Lee’s stature and with a similar style of fighting. Brady however had to pull out of the fight so in comes short notice replacement Daniel Rodriguez who is a dangerous stalking striker with power in every appendage. Yes, much different body type and fighting style than Brady.

Rodriguez, thirty-four and a southpaw will be 4” the taller athlete and though he’ll be giving away a slight reach advantage, his overall size will be most noticeable in the cage. He’s currently unranked but jumped at this opportunity for Kevin Lee is a ranked lightweight and the momentum/hype a potential win provides him will greatly benefit his trajectory in the division.

In this fight Lee needs to open up quickly as Rodriguez often starts slowly. Lee’s past fights have all displayed something close to dominance early but once he realizes his opponent is game and ready to grind for a full fifteen minutes, he finds a way to fade. Just check the record.

Rodriguez needs to keep this bout on the feet at any cost and force Lee into a striking bout. Eventually this approach will lead to him walking the smaller man down, backing him up and using pressure striking, knees and elbows to accumulate damage.

While I can see Lee being quick and effective early, the larger more legitimate welterweight Rodriguez will force this fight into the second round. From that point I believe Rodriguez’s pressure will trouble Lee and force him into telegraphed charges/striking that Rodriguez will be able to time then counter.

At Welterweight Rodriguez is a poor stylistic match-up for Lee on a full camp but the short notice nature of this bout compounds Lee’s risk as well Rodriguez’s advantages.

Rodriguez +130 strike now

Total for this Fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -120

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

Updated 8-28 7:58am PT

Barboza -120 vs. Chikadze +100

For me this bout comes down to whether Chikadze can prove that he’s a legitimate force at featherweight. Will his quickness, precision and diversity befuddle Barboza? With Barboza it’s my judgement that we can predict more effectively what we’re going to get from him based on the pedigree of his past opponents coupled with his performances in each. This has PhD written all over it.

Barboza 

Lee -145 vs. Rodriguez +125

Another fight where I am going to need to watch Lee execute an elite effort for more than seven plus minutes. He may not need to which will only prolong the question’s I have regarding his cardio and mental aptitude. What I can assure you Daniel Rodriguez will mortgage his farm in order to carry this bout into the second round. From there Lee will be easier to time on his way in to engage which will make him susceptible to Rodriguez’s bludgeoning striking attack. I’m intrigued by the under in this bout also.

Rodriguez +130

Di Chirico -265 vs. Razak Alhassan +225

Di Chirico looks the part and acted the part in his last fight but his prior efforts were uninspiring even to a ‘paisan’ countryman like myself.

How this fighter is -240 over anyone of legitimate ability within the division is vexing to me. The Italian is the younger, taller and longer fighter coming off a surprising and exhilarating win. Di Chirico’s confidence is high but I’m not so certain it should be.

Alhassan recently has done nothing but poop his pants. He’s looked slow, lethargic and perplexed in his last couple fights but this may be a perfect situation for him. Both of these men were preparing for other fighters before they came together and agreed to earn and took one another on as opponents.

Di Chirico goes from a Russian vice grip to a compact power puncher in Alhassan who retains explosive power if not fluidity of movement. Alhassan was to fight a Brazilian grappler who had not appeared in the octagon for some time and the switch to a tall, stoic somewhat rigidly unathletic and deliberate fighter in Di Chirico may be quite a fortunate happening for the fighter from Ghana.

Alhassan’s desperation coupled with Di Chirico’s lack of fluid movement and evasive defense may work together to Alhassan’s benefit.

Alhassan +225

Emmers -150 vs. Sabatini +135

Emmers arrives with high pedigree, great competition faced (he’s defeated Cory Sandhagen) and an effective striking arsenal laced with a little wrestling to round him out. He holds the experience factor here and spends time with the cats at team Alpha Male so he earns the position of favorite in this fight based on physical advantages and who he’s been in the cage with

Sabatini arrives the fighter with the style to effectively compete with Emmers provided he is able to navigate Emmers’ range, enter the pocket to force the fight then and work to clasp onto Emmers. Sabatini must cut the cage and force Emmers back, against the cage then onto the mat for what fight fans are sure to hate. If Emmers is allowed to compete on the feet this fight will be short and sweet.

In order to win this battle, Sabatini must employ a constant forward pressure and high pace fight onto Emmers in order to both back the striker up then manage him to the floor where advantage will be with Sabatini. Let’s hope for a boring bout here with Sabatini in dominant top control.

Sabatini +135

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV34. Yesterday my friends at the VSiN Network were in town promoting DraftKings new venture into Arizona. Their particular HQ will be on the grounds of the TPC Scottsdale which is a world class gold course and facility.

These are exciting times in the world of sports gaming and those of us who are understanding of how to produce profit from this highly competitive marketplace will prosper in the coming years. Part of this blog and its content is 110% designed to encourage, teach and expose others to one way of deriving profit from sports betting. Those of you who read. Thank You.

My article from ‘Point Spread Weekly’ is below followed by final releases and comments. FYI the releases made yesterday on ‘My Guys in the Desert’ program are in fact the same final releases as today (a few of the prices may reflect yesterday’s lines)….we just have a brief description below…Good Luck.

Finally, the ‘Bout Business podcast will be kicking off in the next few weeks.

Once that podcast begins all my Saturday UFC updates, final releases, future positions will be published there and the GambLou.com webpage will record those actual results as I have been for the past decade. FYI.

--Let’s Fight--

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s ‘Bout business.

Originally published 8-18 VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly

This week’s UFC Las Vegas 34 offers fight Enthusiasts a fourteen-fight slate which is riddled with underrated match-ups between athlete’s ranging from 135lb. woman’s bantamweight to 265lb. men’s heavyweight with everything sprinkled in between.

It’s been a couple weeks since the last UFC event where we handicapped Michael Chiesa to enter the cage and offer us his best performance. Instead, Chiesa folded and was submitted in the first round by Vicente Luque. I strive to uncover fighters prepared to offer their absolute best effort come the sound of the opening bell and while I’ve had success many times with that approach sometimes it takes the form of a terrible performance. Both Chiesa and I need to come back stronger, more focused and better prepared.

Insight the Octagon 2021: 19-14 +7.68u

Jared Cannonier -160 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +140 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Ninth ranked middleweight and Arizona native Kelvin Gastelum is the prototypical ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’ fighter. Physically he appears more plumber than power puncher so it’s important NOT to measure Gastelum’s game by how he looks physically. He’s a wrestling-based southpaw with formidable boxing skills and a black belt in 10th planet Ju-Jitsu.

One of Gastelum’s biggest challenges in this fight is to prove to himself and the MMA word that despite him losing four of his last five bouts the ex-middleweight challenger still has the skills and desire to vie with the elite of the division. Gastelum will enter the octagon desperate for a win which makes him extremely dangerous.

Another hurdle he must overcome is how he approaches this bout. Gastelum is undersized as a middleweight as he is unable to make the welterweight 170lb. limit. In fact, on occasion he even tussles to make the 185lbs. middleweight limit. This reflects on his conditioning and ethic behind the scenes and during camp as I handicap.

If Gastelum is to employ his wrestling in this fight then he’ll need to arrive fit because wrestling takes a tremendous toll on one’s cardio. Honestly, I question whether Gastelum has three rounds of wrestling in him let along five based on past performances and current form.

What Gastelum will want to encourage in the smaller cage at the APEX is a fight that takes place in the pocket as his best path to victory is to engage any willing opponent for a throwdown. This is when he is his most dangerous.

Cannonier who trains at Phoenix’s the MMALab is ranked third in the division, he started his career as a Heavyweight, then Light Heavyweight has now found a home at Middleweight. He’s fared quite well at this weight class and he enters this bout off a championship loss to title holder Robert Whittaker where he broke his arm early in the bout and lost a unanimous decision.

 Cannonier’s explosion, power and striking are precision based and destructive at middleweight and he’ll hold advantage in athleticism and footwork which is the key to this bout. What most overlook is Cannonier’s underrated BJJ/wrestling/ground game, something he’s been grinding on tirelessly in the gym in preparation of this bout. I don’t believe Gastelum will be able to take Cannonier down and keep him down which will allow most of this fight to take place standing.

Cannonier’s been cracked by much larger men than Gastelum and while Gastelum’s strikes pack power, it’s nothing the larger, longer switch stance Cannonier has not already experienced. Cannonier will choose to remain at distance while not engaging Gastelum ‘in the pocket’ as he is aware that’s his opponents’ sole path to victory.

In this fight Gastelum may well try to use his wrestling and try to gain advantage over Cannonier by getting this bout to the mat. It’s my judgement that he’ll not have success and the energy he uses to experiment with his wrestling will likely sap his cardio leaving him potentially exposed in the later rounds. 

Gastelum wants to and will need to strike with Cannonier and in order to accomplish that he’ll have to overcome the analytical advantages that Cannonier’s height, length and size provide him and the athletic advantages of speed, quickness and movement Cannonier possesses.

In a striking battle Gastelum will be most dangerous early and from inside position. Should he experiment with take down attempts he’ll learn quickly that he is in the octagon against a fighter with the mental discipline to commit to a plan then execute said plan and that plan involves keeping this fight upright and at distance.

Cannonier opened -200 for this bout.

Cannonier -160 leg one open parlay to be filled on a later card.

Total for this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -115

Mark O. Madsen -160 vs. Clay Guida +140 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

Two wrestling-based fighters about to square off in a UFC co main event? Odd, certainly and most novice fight fans will run to the refrigerator when these two begin to clasp onto one another and grope, grovel and strain for fifteen full minutes.

Guida is the fighter with a vast experience advantage but at thirty-nine years old Guida’s cardio and energy remain somewhat intact but his striking is unrefined and in this bout he’s the much smaller combatant which is important in any wrestling competition.

Madsen is an Olympic silver medalist in Greco roman wrestling. He is inexperienced going 2-0 in the UFC and he’ll be giving away some striking ability to Guida which is difficult to comprehend. That said, Madsen switched camps to go train at Phoenix’s ‘Fight Ready’, a gym specializing in providing striking acumen to wrestling based fighters so he’ll be prepared to strike only long enough to get to his forte’…. grappling.

In this fight Madsen will control Guida with his size and especially when this fight falls to the floor….and it will. In Madsen’s previous UFC bouts, he has shown the ability to tire later in fights but I expect great improvement out of him in fight pace as he is a fresh, improving fighter despite his thirty-six years.

Can the cagey, game Guida keep this fight standing early when his striking may help him ward off the unrelenting Madsen or will Madsen be able to clasp on to Clay, toss him to the dirt for a grapple and control the veteran from top position for fifteen minutes?

Madsen opened -125, lean Madsen pending weigh-ins

Total for this fight: 2.5 Over 220

William Knight -200 vs. Fabio Cherant +180 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Knight is a sawed-off shotgun who prefers to walk opponents down then stand and trade in toe-to-toe fashion. At 5’ 10” he’s short, compact and possesses profuse striking power in each hand. Knight’s purpose is to touch his opponent on the chin, put them to sleep then collect a check.

Cherant took his debut fight on short notice against a downright assassin in Alonso Menifield. While he was finished, he did show that he was a tough and willing. Cherant is seven years the younger fighter who has a three-inch height advantage, a three-inch reach advantage and is a southpaw fighter. It’s my judgement that Cherant has the style of striking and power to be able to compete with Knight more competitively than the current line indicates.

Cherant +180

This line is compressing so take it now.

Total for this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -145

Lean Over

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

updated 8-21 7:47am PT

Cannonier -130 vs. Gastelum +110

Gastelum tussles with the weight cut to 185lbs. and he’s the one getting hammered as this fight opened Gastelum + 170. Conversely, I can consider the athlete who is taller, longer, more athletic and conditioned man who opened a legitimate -200 at a price of -130?

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get" 

Warren Buffett

Cannonier -130

use patience as Kelvin may continue to get steamed and the price on Cannonier could become even more attractive.

Madsen -160 vs. Guida +140

Guida is confident that his vast experience advantage will provide him an edge in this bout. Madsen’s been through the ringer this last year and a half and my feeling is that this vice grip Madsen is going to control Guida for fifteen minutes in what will be a real roll in the dirt.

Madsen via decision +140

Pichel -115 vs. Hubbard -105

Pichel’s the more refined striker, a more committed wrestler and has been in with the higher level of opponent. Hubbard’s strong, deliberate and game. This will be a tight fight.

Pichel -115

Pantoja -170 vs. Royval +150

Royval is the quicker, faster fighter and the taller longer, younger athlete in the cage. Pantoja’s very skilled, technical and has competed with and beaten most of the elite talent in the division. Seems likely this is an elimination opportunity.

Royval +155

Sherman -190 vs. Porter +165

This is a heavyweight bout between a guy in Porter who can punch but hs conditioning allows for maybe four effective minutes of fury before he looks to hold, hug and mug. Sherman’s been back and forth from the UFC a couple times and his boxing background and grit give me the belief that he can measure the portly porter then put him out.

Sherman ITD +115

*released yesterday on ‘My Guys in the Desert’.  I failed to include it in the early releases this AM

Knight -170 vs. Cherant +145

This is going to be a great fight. Will ‘thick’ Willie stand with Cherant or try to control him on the mat? Will Cherant be able to maintain distance and catch the raging bull as he is forcing the action? We have great line advantage from earlier in the week on this bout.

Cherant +180

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC 265 Gane vs. Lewis a heavyweight main event Interim title fight tossed together because the organization knew that Amanda Nunes alone is unable to drive a PPV per their standards and since heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou needed a few more weeks to prepare the UFC decided to go by the adage of “the show must go on” as opposed to “we stand by our champions”.  

This should tell you about the organizations focus to be at least as entertainment based as it is authentically fight based which over time may not be so great…...

Last week I mentioned a different access point for my Saturday updates and final releases. It looks like I’ll be publishing a podcast in the very near weeks called ‘Bout business podcast. I’m excited as it will allow me to publish all final releases Saturday AM directly through the pod.

--Let’s Fight--

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s ‘Bout business.

Originally published 8-4 VSiN’s Point Spread Weekly

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC 265 which will be held in front of a packed house in Houston, Texas. This fight card is stacked with key match-ups and fights with clashing styles featuring fighters from every size, shape and Country.

Last week we lost one release to a bad weight cut and my second release of Danny Chavez earned a majority draw decision. In this case the majority draw was like hitting the lotto because at his best Danny Chavez does not possess the fighting acumen to remain in the UFC. We’ll take the decision that does not cost us any profit and move into this week’s card which is loaded with violence.

Cyril Gane -390 vs. Derrick Lewis +330 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Interim Championship

Third ranked Frenchman Cyril Gane defeated fifth ranked Alexander Volkov last month in a five-round decision. Gane controlled the pace and never experienced trouble in that bout as he displayed superior fight intelligence, deft movement, effective evasion of strikes and a full five rounds of cardio.

Gane sports a superior physique, he possesses profuse striking power and he’s risen to his current ranking with only nine professional MMA bouts following a seven-fight undefeated Muay Thai career. This young man is gifted with tremendous athleticism as he moves more like a fighter well under 200lbs. as opposed to one that competes at 255lbs. While athletic and powerful, Gane is also patient in the cage which is the sign of a fighter experienced and cagey.

Gane has displayed little wrestling in past bouts mostly because he’s owned superior striking ability over opponents, so to date, the caliber of ground game Gane possesses is somewhat of an unknown. I think it naïve to believe that his coaches have not been drilling grappling/wrestling into Gane.  

Gane has the intelligence, ability, strength and athleticism to take the most efficient approach to this fight Saturday and that may well be to fold some ground and pound from top position onto his opponent who is known to have only mediocre take down defense.

Gane dominated fifth ranked Volkov just a month ago, and in previous battles did the same to Tanner Boser, JDS and prior to Volkov he made Jair Rozenstruik, the division’s sixth ranked fighter look hesitant, unsure and pensive.

Respected MMA handicappers agree that Gane who is versed in both Muay Thai striking and kickboxing is a legitimate heavyweight contender after just nine professional bouts in just over three years’ time.

Derrick ‘the black beast’ Lewis is the number two ranked heavyweight contender who’s won his last four in a row. He owns a victory over current champion Francis Ngannou in one of the strangest MMA bouts of all time.

Lewis possesses tremendous natural power and incredible ‘Country’ strength for a man his size. He’s explosive/destructive for up to ten to twelve minutes in any bout and he is well aware that with his size he must ration his output in order to make it a full twenty-five minutes.

Lewis has shown to be able to train more effectively these last several fights and while he still tips the scales come weigh-ins at 260 plus, his cardio, focus and determination have been improving entering this bout so it’s plausible he’s able to compete effectively into those championship rounds.

Where Gane is a tactician who uses patience and intelligence to best opponents, Lewis is a profuse power puncher who makes no qualms about his mission to ‘seek and destroy’ using forward pressure to inflict blunt force trauma on opponents.

In this bout the styles should make for interesting viewing.

I believe Lewis will want to walk into a firefight with Gane and Gane will be the fighter who utilizes movement, strike evasion and perhaps even a take down to sap the some of the flash and power away from Lewis whose athleticism and explosion are not to be underestimated based on his rotund, portly physique.

Gane is the fighter with more weaponry, he’s the more intelligent fighter and provided he maintains distance and exercises octagon control early on, I see him having success later in the fight as the beast tires and Gane begins to inflict damage on the less fluid moving and cardio challenged Lewis. How his fight just a month ago affects this performance remains to be seen but there is some concern this turn around is quick for such a young and inexperienced fighter.

One last salient fact, Lewis is from Houston and this card is in the great state of Texas. The fight judging in the state of Texas is inconsistent and questionable on its best day. Lewis won a very dubious decision over Ilir Latifi some fights back (in Texas).  Should this fight make it to a close decision don’t be surprised by what result may come from those “deaf, dumb and blind” folk scoring the fight.  

I’ll have something later this week on this bout.  

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Under -170

Jose Aldo -110 vs. Pedro Munhoz -110 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

Ex featherweight champion Jose Aldo has found new life as a fit bantamweight. In this fight Aldo will have size, height and experience edges to go with his five-inch reach advantage. Aldo's physical size and complete fight arsenal will present issues for his opponent especially early. Aldo benefits greatly by this being a three round bout as he has a propensity to tire as these wars unfold.

Munhoz on the other hand is giving away physical advantages but he is the fighter who arrives with confidence after a thorough defeat of Jimmy Rivera. Munhoz, whose strike defense is suspect, gets hit in fights as he is so willing to trade yet he gains momentum/confidence as his fights wear on.

Monitoring

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -195

Vicente Luque -130 vs. Michael Chiesa +110 Welterweight (170lbs.)

What a fight! In this one we get sixth ranked Luque who enters this bout with tremendous momentum. Luque won nine of ten fights and his last three in a row. Luque’s a very well rounded mixed martial artist.

Decorated in BJJ and Luta Livre Esportiva, Luque can fight at range, in the clinch and one the mat. Luque has finished Nico Price, Randy Brown and Tyronn Woodley in his last three displaying the fact that Luque is there to finish opponents and his wide array of fighting weaponry allow him plenty of latitude in determining how he will finish foes.

Since his move to welterweight, Chiesa has won four straight bouts. The move up in weight has allowed Chiesa to focus on opponents now instead of the weight cut. His results have been stellar, capped off by an impressive five round unanimous decision over Neil Magny in his last.

Chiesa is not as well rounded in fighting acumen as Luque, It’s Chiesa’s size and BJJ mastery that make him a dangerous foe for anyone in the division.

In this fight Chiesa is going to need to strike with Luque only long enough to engage/clasp/clinch him for Chiesa’s striking is awkward, gangly and not very effective. He must fight a way to drape himself over Luque using his size, the fence and deft clinch work to smother the striking attack that Luque has so singularly relied upon in his last several fights.

Luque on the other hand has ground ability in his own right though he’s chosen not to exercise it in his last bouts. In this bout Luque will choose to fight Chiesa at his strength which is stand-up and must maintain distance and space in order to be effective.

Chiesa’s size and ability to smother opponents striking then transition the fight into a grappling affair make him an overly dangerous match-up for Luque.

Chiesa +110

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -150

Lean to the over

updated 8-7 7:31 am PT

I made most of my final releases yesterday on VSiN’s Follow the Money program. Those will be listed below with today’s main event release.

Gane -350 vs. Lewis +300

There has been enough under wagering on this bout to push the total from 4.5 most everywhere to 3.5 now available almost everywhere. I map this fight to be a real snoozer with Gane playing matador and Lewis playing a tired frustrated beast come the end of this bout.

Over 3.5 +140

Aldo -110 vs. Munhoz -110

Killer bout with focused, dangerous well-rounded combatants. Aldo’s 5” reach in what appears to be a stand-up war is a bettable statistical advantage besides who he’s faced and what he’s accomplished inside the octagon.

Munhoz is just too willing to take one to dish one. I see Aldo reenacting his fight against Frankie when he maintained distance and jabbed him to death for the duration of that bout. Aldo is aided by three rounds where Munhoz could probably use the extra minutes when the bell rings. Aldo opened -130 so we’ll scoop the twenty-cent discount.

Aldo -110

Luque -110 vs. Chiesa -110

Chiesa +110

 released earlier in the week (see above)

Menifield -225 vs. Herman +195

At forty and being the UFC’s longest tenured fighter Herman surely has the experience edge in this fight but he’s fighting up in class, looked like road dung at weigh-ins and is giving away steep advantages in age, athleticism, speed, explosion and power. Menifield, as long as he keeps this bout standing can hurt Herman and I think he can finish the durable old veteran.

Menifield via KO/TKO/DQ -125

Rodriguez -120 vs. Morales +100

It’s the level of competition Morales has faced and his experience that make me feel he should be the slight favorite in this fight.

Morales +100

*I use a combination of Circa and Pinnacle for pricing.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV33 a card that’s had to undergo last minute alterations/additions, a card that’s experienced weigh-in issues on top of the rescheduling of match-ups.

It takes patience and flexibility to structure a fight slate laced with potential profitable positions and today even though we’ve seen some weird happenings, there remains a few releases to share.

This week I’ll toss a couple of ‘out and ups’ for small wagers as this seems to be a card to enjoy and have fun with as opposed to try to ‘slay the dragon’ with this group of misfits and upstarts populating the slate.

Also, look for potential changes in how I publish my final comments and official Saturday UFC releases in the upcoming weeks as I may begin publishing those on my Lou Finocchiaro YouTube channel moving forward.

As is customary my early week article for VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ opens today’s blog followed by final comments and releases.

--Let’s Fight--

All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business.

Published 7-28 ‘Point Spread Weekly’

Insight the Octagon took a step back Saturday with Kyler Phillips losing via decision causing our parlay with Gamrot to crash. Profitability in 2021 now stands 19-13 +8.68u as we head into this July 30th Las Vegas 33 fight card where the preliminary bouts kick off at 3pm PT.

After perusing this fight card and the co-main event which was just lost Monday, I must say that it appears after several weeks of fight slates stacked with competitive bouts and sensible matchmaking that we finally get a card that appears to be goulash. Several fringe athletes and fighters who need to get work were tossed together to create this ‘interesting’ fight slate.  

There are a handful of head scratchers as well as a few barn burners on this card. Let’s focus on a few potential barnburners.

Sean Strickland -215 vs. Uriah Hall +185 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

The Main event this week provides us with a couple of diversely trained strikers each of whom is top fifteen ranked within the division.

Eighth ranked Hall is a kickboxing based fighter with a second-degree black belt in Kyokushin Karate and a blue belt in BJJ. At thirty-six the Jamaican fighter will be five plus years the older fighter in the cage though he will own a slight advantage with arm/leg reach.

Hall’s been in the cage with absolute elite talent within the division and though he’s a gifted middleweight fighter, Hall can sometimes struggle mentally and against fighters who force the fight upon him. Since landing in Texas to train with Fortis MMA, Hall has gained momentum with the mental aspect of fighting which seems the only aspect to his game that was in need of vast development.  

Through no fault of his own, the thirty-six-year-old has had just two fights since 2019 and in each Hall faced more aged opponents than he. He finished Anderson Silva in the fourth round of their October 2020 bout then in seventeen seconds he beat Chris Weidman who snapped his shin on Hall’s shin when Hall defended a kick. That’s not much work over the last few years.

Hall appears to be entering this fight fresh and ready to fire. His experience, precision striking/kicking and Knock out power are certain advantages and if he can maintain mental focus against an absolute maniac Saturday, he can surely win this fight.

Sean Strickland began his career as a welterweight but his decision to fight at middleweight has allowed him to realize a 3-0 run with wins over Jack Marshman, Brendan Allen and Krzysztof Jotko who are each talented middleweight fighters but not on par with the level of competition his opponent has faced.

Strickland grew up tough which resulted in a lack of success in school but an early introduction into martial arts. Strickland is a street talking antagonist who even when he is not fighting may come across as an obstinate tool.

Strickland is unrelenting with forward striking pressure and though he’ll be at slight disadvantages in arm/leg reach the smaller cage at the APEX will more than allow for ‘fighter interaction’ which Strickland must have in order to turn this fight from a display of striking to a full-scale brawl.

Strickland will come to make the fight; he’ll attempt to back Hall up which negates any fighter's lethal kicking acumen and reduces them. If he can force Hall backwards, he’ll have advantage provided he does not walk into a Sunday shot.

Hall will look to maintain space and even back the slighter man backwards early on for his plan will be to face Strickland’s music early then after gaining his respect, crack the smart ass when he becomes frustrated and attempts to FORCE his way to inside position. Hall’s precision kicks/strikes are more effective when the target is incoming, he just needs to set that up by pressing Strickland back with his own pressure early.  

Strickland is legit nutty enough to try to walk through strikes in order to make this affair a good old-fashioned brawl. If Strickland can transition this fight into a toe-to-toe throwdown, he’ll hold advantage over Hall who may well be the more fluent striker of the two.

If Hall can gain respect early then work to counter Strickland coming in then Hall will gain confidence and momentum quickly and be able to display his skills from a position of strength.

Monitoring

Total for this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -115

Lean Under

Kai Kamaka -125 vs. Danny Chavez +105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Kamaka steps in on short notice for this clash. He’s a striker who’s been training at Las Vegas’ own X-treme Couture. A boxer/wrestler from Hawaii, Kamaka, who has dropped his last two is tough and willing but he has not faced quality opponents and he takes this fight on short notice.  Kamaka will need to display improvement in his striking and cardio in order for him to step forward Saturday.

Danny Chavez, thirty-four enters this bout the slightly larger man and eight years older than Kamaka. In this instance it’s Chavez’s age that is motivating him into realizing that this is his cornerstone opportunity to make a run. If he loses this bout his fighting career may be close to over yet with a victory any fighter may convince himself of anything.

Chavez enters this bout off a loss to a respected featherweight in Jared Gordon which puts him in position to bounce. His interviews this week have convinced me that he’s totally focused for this opportunity knowing how important it is for his career.

Fear, anxiety and desperation while not tangible can motivate in the correct circumstance and in this bout, I believe Chavez will present us with his absolute best effort in order to remain a UFC fighter against an athlete in Kamaka that may just be in a poor situation facing Chavez on short notice.

Chavez +105

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -180

Ronnie Lawrence -140 vs. Trevin Jones +120 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Giles has had a couple superb showings as an underdog most recently beating Mario Bautista in March. He’s fast, athletic, sneaky powerful and willing to exchange. Outside Bautista, Giles has faced mid-level MMA talent and, in this bout, he’ll step up considerably to face a fighter who is a legitimate bantamweight talent in the UFC.

Lawrence makes his sophomore appearance in the UFC, he will own slight height, reach and age advantage over Giles but with regard to mixed martial arts experience/acumen it’s Lawrence that has that stockpiled though most have yet to witness it displayed on the UFC stage.

In this fight it will be Giles footwork and speed that will be utilized to fend off the more deliberate, forward pressing power striking attack of Lawrence.

Lawrence opened a -200 favorite for this fight which is about how I handicap the bout. The market however has reacted to Giles. Perhaps it was his dominant performance last outing which has impressed bettors but Lawrence had a last bout also, one which was a comprehensive beatdown finish of Vince Cachero.

Lawrence -140 move on this price now please as Leg 1 of two fighter parlay, second leg open.

I strive to keep potential loss on any wager to a single unit. It worked well last week as we saved 1.4 units by tossing Phillips in that parlay.

Total for this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -120

Good Luck and Thank you for reading

Updated 7-31 7:52am PT

new update 11:50am PT

Final update 2pm PT

Kang -120 vs. Yahya +100 has been scratched as has been Gooden and Stoltz. Hey fight fans these cancellations put bee's in most people bonnets but it allows us to do what we do and that is adapt and overcome. Please pay close attention to @Twitter today. I got some cards up my sleeve....

*Fight between Ronnie Lawrence and Trevin Jones has been cancelled due to adverse reaction to weight cut by Lawrence. 

Strickland vs. Hall

My patience in waiting to release Hall +175 yesterday revolved around observing his weigh-in results and the face-off with Strickland to try to put a finger on his demeanor entering this bout. If I was Hall, I’d be tired of hearing about my weak mindedness and do all I can to offer a focused performance over an opponent that will offer Hall nothing he has not already seen/experienced. Hall’s the legitimate middleweight and Strickland’s going to have to prove to me that he’s a legitimate 185er.

Hall +175

Kang -120 vs. Yahya +100

Kang must NOT roll with Yahya in fact he needs to keep this standing. If he does make this a striking bout, he has a great chance of winning this fight. However, Kang’s going to try to test himself against Yahya’s BJJ and if in fact he ventures into a rolling routine with the Brazilian he’ll be outclassed as I handicap this fight.

Yahya +100 .5u   Yahya via submission +250 .5u

Barberena -260 vs. Witt +220

I’ll give Witt credit for having the huevos to step in with a legitimate killer. Don’t judge Bam-Bam by his body, judge him by that Texas sized heart and the granite beard he totes into the cage with him every single fight.

Bam-Bam ITD +110

Kamaka -120 vs. Chavez +100

This was released Wednesday (see above) Chavez +105 so we hold a little price advantage entering this bout. Kamaka is here to prove he belongs in the UFC and enters this fight with the same fire and desperation after having lost his last two as Chavez does as he lost his last UFC bout also. The difference here is that Chavez enters this fight after reacting to overtraining and with a full camp under his belt. Kamaka steps in on short notice.

Chavez +100 or better

Yoder -150 vs. Frey +130

Over 2.5 rounds is a smooth -350 eh? Let’s take a seven step drop off play action on first and ten and toss an out and up. Adding Yoder as aa SU chalk release for .5u.

Yoder ITD +550 .3u   Yoder 150 .5u

Cosce -160 vs. Rowe +140

Rowe, already huge for the weight class wallows onto the scales yesterday a couple pounds overweight. That will cost him some cash for this unfair advantage yet I can’t help thinking that the weight may not help this inexperienced fighter much at all. He’ll want to make this a stand-up fight while his more well-rounded opponent will offer a wide scale of offensive weaponry in his attempt to drag Row to the mat for a groping. In a tough, grinding fight between a couple of inexperienced UFC neophytes, I handicap this one to go to decision.

Fight goes to decision +145 

now full unit wager

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