This Friday night fight card from Boston has some outstanding match-ups not the least of which is the co-main event which is finally a completion of the Stephens/Rodriguez business left unfinished just a month ago.

As is customary here I’ll post my Insight the Octagon article from VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ below with update comments and releases following. Enjoy the Friday night fracas.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--published 10-15-19 Point Spread Weekly—

Boston, MA is the scene for FRIDAY night’s UFC on ESPN+6 offering fans a slate loaded with entertaining match-ups featuring mixed martial artists in weight classes ranging from Women’s Strawweight (115lbs.) to Heavyweight (265lbs.).

Last week we ‘juiced’ the ‘Man as I split my two releases. Joanna decisioned the Hottie so my “fight does NOT go distance” +180 lost but the underdog Cub Swanson +140 did in fact award the singularly talented Kron Gracie his PhD. in MMA resulting in a net +.20-unit profit (both releases were half unit wagers).

2019 Results: 16-16 +3.11

Dominick Reyes -165 vs. Chris Weidman +145 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Main Event

Chris Weidman’s is thirty-five-years-old and has fought professionally for ten years, over the course of his eighteen fights he holds an impressive 14-4 record. That said we need to dig a little deeper into understanding where Weidman is physically as he enters this bout.

After his first two fights at catchweight (190lbs.) Weidman’s ten-year career has been spent in the Middleweight division where he’s held the title belt while in his prime but he’s been KO’d in four of his last five fights. Weidman’s wrestling/grappling based fighting style mandates intense physical training as well he’s accrued injuries over time…a great deal of them.

In an MMAJunkie.com. article dated June 9, 2019 they report the following on Weidman’s decision to move up in weight, “He cites numerous surgeries which prevent him from being able to cut to Middleweight as his reason for moving up weight classes”.

Weidman’s sole victory since December of 2015 was against Kelvin Gastelum in 2017. It’s that fight which holds the blueprint to Weidman success this Friday for against Gastelum Weidman was able to hold his own on the feet only long enough to clinch, grapple and grind his way to the matt for a mauling of the shorter, younger less grappling versed Gastelum.

Weidman’s sole avenue to victory Friday night will again lie in his ability to get this monster he’s fighting onto the floor where he’ll hold dynamic advantage. This is the single most important aspect to this main event.

Dom Reyes enters this fight a goliath of a Light Heavyweight fighter. He’ll be two inches taller than his opponent and though they each have similar reach; Reyes 29 will have a five-year youth advantage to go along with his obtuse size advantage and his pure power. When Reyes enters the octagon Friday Night, he’ll weight 230lbs to Weidman’s 210 or so. 

Reyes pro career spans only five years and his undefeated record displays that he is an ascending talent albeit one that needs to address his lack wrestling and BJJ prowess. He’s a striker learning to compliment his game with other specialties while Weidman is well rounded but has little ability to take a straight fist to the face.

In this fight Weidman must wear Reyes down in order to be able to bum rush him into the fence then drag him to the floor where Weidman’s advantage will be dominant.

Reyes meanwhile knows Weidman’s plans and he’ll use his 85% effective take down defense to thwart Weidman’s advances then separate so he may unleash his profusely powerful striking on Weidman and test his mettle at the Light heavyweight division.

Reyes opened -185 for this fight and the slight move to Weidman is reasonable since he does have a vast experience edge, he’s also trained by Ray Longo one of the smartest savviest MMA trainers in the world so he’ll have Weidman prepared to use IQ and Wrestling in order to win this fight.

Reyes who’s never fought in a scheduled five round fight let alone main event prior to Friday must keep this fight standing and if he does it seems plausible that he’ll catch the older more brittle brawler as he tries to get inside to engage.

Reyes -165

I’ll use this as the first leg of an Open parlay. The second leg will be filled at a later date. I use favorites that I believe offer value in this regard to both minimize loss in case of defeat and enhance value on an upcoming card should it win.

Yair Rodriguez -110 vs. Jeremy Stephens -110 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main event

This is a fight I wrote up for PSW last month but the fight was stopped in the first round due to ‘eye pokes’ to Stephens from Rodriguez. I could write volumes on this fight but I’ll keep this brief:

Rodriguez’s reactions immediately after the DQ (he wanted to be awarded the victory and displayed it quite poorly) showed me a complete lack of class and his comments following the fight about Stephens wanting out of the fight were off base, degrading and I can assure you they peeved Stephens off good. I also believe that Rodriguez was then and is now completely scared to his core of engaging with Stephens.

Last month’s fight in Mexico City actually was advantage Stephens, not only had he trained at the elevation there for a full five weeks prior but the fight being scheduled five rounds was a huge benefit to him because Stephens struggles with footwork. Early in fights he has trouble catching quicker more deft opponents (Edgar, Bermudez and others) until later rounds where he can eventually catch up to them after they tire and ice them. Rodriguez has one thing on Stephens it’s athleticism and speed/quickness.

This fight is now scheduled for only three rounds and while many believe this favors Stephens it in fact does not. Now while I do feel that Rodriguez is in fact scared to his core, I believe it’s that he’s hesitant to find himself in a firefight with this bruising brawler. That said, fear is and can be motivating is sport and although Rodriguez must travel to a cold northern climate from Mexico to fight in Boston his chances are better in this abbreviated rematch.

So, the question is a singular one: Can Stephens successfully close Rodriguez’s space, crowd him, bully him and batter him or will Rodriguez be able to use his footwork, speed, youth and athleticism to pick and peck away at this raging bull for three rounds?

My heart says Stephens by vicious KO because I want him to exact revenge but my head says Rodriguez via decision even though I believe he is soft, that said, the table is set for him to pitter patter Stephens for fifteen full minutes.

Too much emotion/uncertainty for a wager.

--updated 10-17-19 10pm PT—

Main Event: Reyes is in no cakewalk here but with that said he knows the singular avenue to success for Weidman is to get this fight to the floor for a flop. I believe the only flop Friday will be Weidman’s Light Heavyweight debut.

Stephens -105 has too much emotion going into this fight. Rodriguez -105 gains every edge by only having to manage this mauler for fifteen minutes as opposed to twenty-five. While I believe Rodriguez is frightened to his core, I also feel he’ll be able to manage the anxiety and keep Stephens at distance which will frustrate the raging bull and make him predictable as he marches his way in to engage. I’m no Rodriguez fan but tonight I’ll take him even money.

Rodriguez -105

Earlier this week I released Jonathan Pearce -141 vs. Joe Lauzon +121 who I feel is a washed-out fighter getting a chance to say farewell to the Boston fans after an illustrious career. I believe he’s here as much to promote his gym and highlight some of his local fighters from said gym as he is to fight because either way, I believe he walks after this fight.

Also released on both VSiN network and Gabriel Morency’s Red Heat and Rage show in Fntsy Sports Network was The English bloke Darren Steward +115 who fights an up and coming wrestling talent that already understands how to cheat the system by wallowing into the weigh-ins a handful of pounds overweight in Deron Winn -125. Fighters that do this gain octagon advantage at the expense of too little pay as penalty for missing. They should have to forfeit the fight no matter the result if they miss weight by more than 2.5 lbs. without a short notice excuse or something reasonable and laid out up front. Winn’s a cheater but we made the position…

Lastly is my mangy mutt alert: Gillian Robertson +140 awards the mouthy Macie Barber -160 her PhD. In MMA.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

We traipse into Tampa for today’s UFC fight night, a card which is shy of top name talent but one that I believe will be entertaining because of the competitiveness of most of these fights. I like several short underdogs in this one but am reluctant to pull the trigger so I’ll take a cautious approach today knowing there’s several cards ahead of us upcoming!

I’ll repost my main event breakdowns from earlier this week below then add a few updated comments.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--Originally published 10-9-19 “Point Spread Weekly”--

We return to the states with UFC Fight Night Tampa, a fight card whose prelims will begin Saturday at 2PM PT with the main card dropping at 5pm PT.

This fight card has some interesting match-ups early in the card that I’ll be interested in making opinion upon but today we break down the main events.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk -400 vs. Michelle Waterson +300 Women’s Strawweight (115lbs.) Main Event

Joanna enters this match a huge chalk and rightfully so. Her resume’ is steeped with devastating victories while showing only losses to Rose Namajunas (twice) and Woman’s Flyweight (125lbs) Champion Valentina Shevchenko. Joanna, who is dropping back to Strawweight for this fight is the taller fighter by three inches and she’ll hold a three-inch reach advantage which are both advantageous in a fight that should remain standing.

Michelle Waterson “The Karate Hottie” enters this fight the more active fighter with true momentum and ‘Mo’ can’t be undervalued in the fight game. Waterson can stand effectively employing a Karate style but she’ll want to and NEED to clasp, clinch and try to drag Joanna to the floor in order to gain her best advantage. Waterson’s stand up in no way resembles Joanna’s in style, precision or power. Joanna’s size, length and skillset will mandate that Waterson attempt to take this fight to the floor.

Joanna’s take down defense is a stellar 80% and that’s in fights where she’s competed at Flyweight against larger, stronger women. In my judgement Waterson (who is undersized for this division) will struggle to get Joanna to the mat setting up a striking battle with a taller longer well more effective striker.

This is a five round fight and it’s reasonable to believe that Joanna may finish the Hawaiian hottie in the latter stages of this bout which is highly unusual for lower weight fighters especially women. That said this is a fight Joanna needs to dominate and I believe she may be capable of a big output against Waterson.

This fight opened Joanna -380 and now sits -400. Pass

I have my eye on “Fight does not go the Distance” prop currently available “in faraway locations” and WillHill priced at +180.

I will make that a position for .50 half unit.

Kron Gracie -170 vs. Cub Swanson +150 Featherweight (145lbs) Co Main Event

Gracie has THE name and is considered royal heritage in the world MMA. As expected, he’s an unbelievably decorated, world class BJJ based fighter but he’s also completely one dimensional in his form of attack as well this is his sixth professional fight and only his second in the UFC.

So, while he is dominant in one facet of MMA, he’s still evolving as a fighter everywhere else. His stand up is very raw and he uses almost no kicks. He must attack opponents in such ways as to earn a clinch, a clasp or be able to press them against the fence which then allows him to entangle their limbs neutralizing them to eventually choke them unconscious.

In Cub Swanson Gracie is up against a truly well rounded professional mixed martial artist with a total of thirty-six professional fights spanning fifteen years. Swanson who’s lost his last four fights to the division’s absolute top talent knows the UFC is using him as stepping stone in order to promote their new toy and it’s my judgement that he may not be so willing to acquiesce them.

I believe Saturday night Cub Swanson hands Kron Gracie his PhD. in MMA by keeping this fight upright and on the feet where Swanson will be too deft in movement and too precise with his punches on his way to proving that he may not be finished just yet.

Swanson +150 (.50 half unit)

--updated 10-12-19 10am PT—

Joanna and the Hottie’s line has compressed a bit as we near opening bell. Joanna had little issue with weight which makes me lean to her potential to finish a bit more. On top of that the price of the prop: “Fight does not go distance” is now +210! I feel Joanna looks solid tonight while Michelle may look more like a Mom than a fighter.

I also respect Kron Gracie, his name, heritage the whole deal but Cub is live in my estimation as well we can absolutely expect his best effort in this spot. Swanson is now +170 and rising…. you may choose to use patience and let the parlay playing puke’s push this Mangy Mutt a bit higher…

Price -135 vs. Vick +125

Vick must prove to everyone that it was the weight cut to get to 155 and not a porcelain beak that he must overcome as one you can and the other one can’t. Price ITD is -120 which is not a price that excites me so I’ll use him as the first part of a 2-team parlay (myself a puke in this situation) for one unit with the second half to remain open until a later date…

Pena -165 vs. Frevola +155

Pena is an Italiani but he’s not fared well against a straight forward aggressor (Trizano) and I believe he’ll have trouble with Frevola who is coming off a win against a guy in Jailin Turner that was a true precursor to Pena. Advantage goes to the shorter guy giving away reach and fighting a southpaw.

Frevola +155 half

(you may wait for another nickel or two of value)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Following weekly custom I’ll post my main event breakdown for UFC 243 with the co main event below. There will be only those two releases today for reasons explained within. Good Luck to everyone today and enjoy the epic battle.

--originally published 10-2-19 VSiN's "Point Spread Weekly"--

Insight the Octagon readers were treated to a couple underdog wins last week as the suggested parlay using Justin Gaethje -190 tied to Gilbert Burns -140 produced a +1.66 return and as predicted, Jared Cannonier who closed +240 overwhelmed Jack Hermansson in the Middleweight main event via first round KO.

As an aside last week it was reported this year’s results 12-14 with a balance of -.25 of a unit when the balance was -.75u. Updated and corrected results stand: 14-14 +2.91u.

This week the UFC continues its aggressive expansion with a fight card from Melbourne, Australia featuring a main event that for the MMA fans in Oceana will rival Ali vs. Frazier and/or Hagler vs. Leonard in its importance to the region as well the stylistic make-up of the fight.

This Middleweight (185lbs.) Championship unification bout may be the largest live gate ever for a UFC event.

Champion Robert Whittaker -120 vs. Int. Champion Israel Adesanya +100

Whittaker is of Australian and Kiwi heritage. Adesanya born in Nigeria, lives and identifies himself as a New Zealander so we’re presented with a situation where the voracious fight passion of this region will witness two of its top athletes inside the Octagon. Each of these fighters are vying for the title but with that comes the respect and admiration of these rabid fans.

Both of these standing based fighters employ differing tactics in order to dominate their opponents. Whittaker must work his way inside the pocket to deliver damage on Adesanya (ala Smokin Joe Frazier) while Adesanya must control distance with his movement which will allow him to counter the incoming Champion and keep him at range for his effective kicking game (float like a butterfly).

Adesanya is the more defensively aware, fluid, precise punching and skilled fighter who’ll be in there with a man that will be straight walking him down to engage. Whittaker slugs with profuse power but is less precise with his strikes. He relies on toughness, determination and grit to win fights at the expense of deft defense, something I view as an issue in this match-up.

Adesanya will look to use his athleticism, movement and length (he’ll have a seven-inch reach advantage arms) to keep Whittaker off balance and unable to take inside position.

Thus, we have the cat and mouse.

Once the bell to round one rings, Whittaker who is decorated with a sturdy Hapkido, Goju-ryu Karate and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu foundation will look to press the action to Adesanya and maneuver his way inside. I believe it critical for Whittaker to employ an aggressive output of his own ferocious leg kicks in order to take some of the fluidity and quickness from the legs of his challenger.

How Whittaker addresses the more athletic Adesanya will be the key to this fight as Whittaker has the power to hurt Adesanya with one shot, he just needs to be able to earn his way inside to deliver it.

Adesanya’s been the more active fighter which is important at this level of importance and telling also. He fought four times in 2018, has had a couple fights thus far in 2019 and in each fight, he’s developed and improved everywhere.

Whittaker meanwhile had two epic title defenses against Yoel Romero one in July of ’17 and the other June of ’18 each of which were true tests of durability and physically/emotionally exacting on Whittaker. Even though Whittaker is the younger man it will seem otherwise in my judgement come Saturday night down under.

This fight opened with Whittaker -150 and has slowly sifted to a pick-em at the time of this submission. I agree with the flow to Adesanya and believe at +100 he’s in better position to get his hand raised.

Adesanya +100

This fight card has two outstanding fights contained in it. That’s it. After that this is the greatest collection of set-up fights I have ever witnessed. These New Zealand and Australian fighters have been ‘very well matched’ if I may put it politely. I would not argue with anyone who took any three local fighters and strung them in a parlay…that’s how bad it is! Lol.

Anyway, we do have a bettable second fight on this card:

Dan Hooker -160 vs. Al Iaquinta +140 Lightweight (155lbs.)  co main event

Hooker is the local kid from the heart of Auckland. He’ll be the younger, taller, longer striking based fighter who enters off a nice finish of an extremely chinny James Vick and prior to that a devastating KO loss to Edson Barboza. Hooker is the one local on this card that was served up a tough, determined, well rounded mixed martial artist come Saturday night.

Al Iaquinta is a perfect fighter for this set up. He trains at Serra/Longo in Long Island and not only is Iaquinta wrestling based, tough and durable but he managed to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov to a five-round decision on short notice just a handful of months ago. Iaquinta’s fought in Australia prior and England so his talents travels well and I expect Iaquinta to show well of himself Saturday night in Hooker’s back yard.

Iaquinta +140

*Wednesday on Gabriel Morency's radio program Fntsy Network I released Iaquinta +160 live. This was at or near publication of the above column. 

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC’s debut from Denmark. We’re also returning to the morning fighting circuit here in the pacific time zone which is actually helpful with full slates of college football in the fall. As usual my main event breakdown is below followed by a brief update.

Published 9-25-19 “Point Spread Weekly”

Last week’s UFC event in Mexico City was as odd a fight card as I can recall. The evening was capped by a main event that lasted fifteen seconds and ruled a no contest due to eye pokes. I had released Yair Rodriguez +100 in that main event and have a few things to say.

First, Stephens (who got both eyes poked badly) spent better than thirty thousand dollars toting his fight camp to Mexico City for some five weeks to train for this fight…. ain’t no way he was faking the injury as many (mainly his opponent Rodriguez) claim. No way.

Second, I say now that I had the wrong kid in the fight for both Stephens and Rodriguez knew what was going to transpire in that cage had this fight been able to play out. “In this racquet”, we are RARELY presented a chance to ‘luck box out’ of a poor wager with a no contest determination but that is exactly what happened fight fans.

Rodriguez entered the cage Saturday with the look of a baby gazelle surrounded by hungry hyenas. He walked in there cold, scared to hell and ready to face the fury as his machismo would force him to do in front of an arena of crazed fight fans. There is little way he would have handled Stephens pressure last Saturday. He knew it, Stephens knows it and now so do we.

Finally, it’s Rodriguez who’s doing all the yapping now and chiding Stephens about the incident yet I feel there is absolutely no way he will agree to fight the an again. Somewhere deep inside of me yearns for this fight to be rescheduled quickly as I want to see Stephens whup Rodriguez after all the belly aching he did after the fight which I viewed totally as a ‘tell’ to the relief he felt not having to undergo the whuppin Stephens was about to inflict on him.

Lastly, the Mexican fight fans I so proudly applauded last week for their passion and history really did themselves poorly as a community with the reaction they had to the main event being called on top of the other funky happenings and results of the night. Attending an event is a privilege and no one has the right to react to the result of the fight as the people of Mexico City did. Shame on them…

This week the UFC debuts in Copenhagen, Denmark with a fight slate much more steeped in competitive match-ups than we’re used to seeing in Europe. Let’s dig right in understanding that for we in the PST as the prelims start at 8am PT with the main card going at 11am PT.

Getcha Latte’s ready!

Jack Hermansson -240 vs. Jarod Cannonier +200 Middleweight (185lbs.) Main Event

Hermansson, a Swede headlines a main event in his backyard after earning impressive victories over top rated (but in my view aged) middleweight competition. Hermansson, thirty-one has a complete fight arsenal which is relies on a heavy grappling/wrestling base and is complimented by solid striking. In recent fights Hermansson has been able to engage his opponents and dominate them with inside grappling using over/under hooks to gather them in and smother them in the clinch before dragging them down to the floor for some ground and pound.

Hermansson is the slightly younger man, he’ll be the taller fighter but Cannonier has the same reach as he so Hermansson’s jab may be well less effective in this fight than it has in past fights which important as his striking does work off of the jab.

If there is one concern I have for the Swede is that his body of competition is not quite what it appears. Sure, his opponents’ names are recognizable but their ages at the time he fought them tell me that Hermansson has not been in there with a fighter as viciously fast, powerful and as quick as Jarod Cannonier.

Cannonier arrives to this fight an underrated force at Middleweight. He’s competed in the Heavyweight/Light heavyweight divisions and fared well for himself against larger stronger men and its only been recently that he’s moved down to this weight class. His results have been stellar. At Middleweight Cannonier has found his home and though often over looked and undervalued by fight handicappers he has dominated his opponents at this weight class other than Glover Teixeira and Dominick Reyes.

If Hermansson decides to forego the striking and simply wrestle Cannonier from the opening bell then I believe Cannonier may have a difficult time with Hermansson’s Jiu-Jitsu and wrestling for Cannonier is still developing that aspect of his game.

That said, he trains at one of the more complete gyms in America known for its expertise in BJJ and wrestling, The MMALab.  Cannonier did effectively impede David Branch’s (a Renzo Gracie Black Belt in BJJ) take down attempts before finishing him in the second round a few fights back and he is well aware that Hermansson will try to take this fight to the floor once he gets clocked by Cannonier early on.

Hermansson is the more complete MMA fighter but I believe the difference in this fight will be the speed, quickness and conditioning of Cannonier who I regard as a most dangerous and capable opponent, one coming ion on a wave of confidence.

Cannonier opened a +160 dog and has risen to +200 presenting value on the American. As is usually the case with underdogs, the value will grow as we near the opening bell because UFC gamblers bet favorites, they bet parlays and they bet late so be patient and watch this line closely.

Cannonier +200 (or better) is on my watch list pending weigh-ins and of course another dime or two of value. Monitoring.

Gilbert Burns -135 vs. Gunnar Nelson +125 Welterweight (170lbs.)

This fight is going to be very interesting. Gil Burns who has made the move up to welterweight from Lightweight is experiencing what many of todays fighters are, that they perform better without having to toil with drastic weight cutting.

Both of these men are world class BJJ artists so a flop on the floor would be most exciting to we purists but in situations like this it’s common to have each grappler decide to stand and fight it out in the middle of the cage.

When standing in this fight, Burns will need to navigate Nelson’s unusual and unorthodox Karate stance in order to be effective but it is my judgment that Burns holds significant speed and power advantages in the stand-up department. He’ll be the faster stronger man as well he is one of few mixed martial artists alive that is a more pedigreed dangerous Jiu Jitsu artist than Nelson. Burns will have no problem on the mat.

Anywhere this fight goes I must give Burns the edge. Burns past struggles or at least when he was a Lightweight fighter was with his ability to absorb a flush power shot to the schnoz but I believe this was caused by the drastic cutting. This move up in weight has allowed him to fight with more ability to take a shot as well his cardio has improved significantly. On top of all this Nelson’s striking is only average within the division and his power comes not from the fists but from his kicks.

Gilbert Burns -135 is in a very advantageous position Saturday night.

Point Spread Weekly readers hold a Justin Gaethje-190 open ended parlay from the UFC Vancouver card which we will now tie to Gilbert Burns -135. This potential payout is +166.

I am not a big parlay advocate but when I uncover value in favorites the parlay is a great tool that allows one to keep the investment to one unit. In this case if we can get Burns to batter Nelson, we’ll have a nice underdog priced profit.

--Updated 9-27-19--

As far as the main event is concerned, it looks like my call for patience is paying dividends insofar as Cannonier has gone from +200 at publication Tuesday to +240 currently. I believe the number continues to rise and I’ll say that at the apex I’ll jump Cannonier +240 or better. Cannonier is getting all kinds of overlooked here.

Burns -120 vs. Nelson +110

This number has tightened a bit which is understandable as the locals will back Gunnar in this spot. I still believe Burns is better everywhere and will display it especially if/when Gunnar tries to pull him down to the mat. If you are obtaining Burns now for the second portion of the parlay then your price is just that much more profitable (+180). I like him straight up for those not involvedin the first leg of the parlay. Good Luck.

Burns -120

Roundtree -105 vs. Cutelaba -105

Cutelaba is strong and powerful but also very unrefined and lacking cardio. Roundtree has been grinding to improve his MMA ability and, in my judgement, he may be one of the most improved fighters in the organization. His travels to Thailand seem to be rewarding him as his stand up and Thai clinch game are vastly improved and bound to bother the heinous Hulk.

Roundtree -105

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

To many Saturdays in the fall mean college football which I can appreciate but to this old saddle Saturdays, forty to forty-four of them per years are spend in the business of the UFC. Fighting is my focus other than a few specialized sports I work. Narrow focus to increase expertise means serving clients with profitability. That’s exactly what I preach. This is a business people and over the course of the fiscal year (for UFC that is the calendar year) my business produced bottom line profitability.

Today’s main event breakdown is below it was published Wednesday of this week on VSiN’s ‘Point spread weekly’ magazine. After that breakdown I’ll offer update insight on these fights from this morning’s vantage point. I'll also add that this may be the most diverse set of fighters on any card I can recall. There will be fighters from thirteen different Countries represented on today fiight card! International intrigue!

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--published 9-18-19 Point Spread Weekly—

This week the UFC takes a trip ‘south of the border’ to enhance its product with a fight slate Saturday from Mexico City, Mexico. Often these foreign cards are designed to highlight regional fighters in somewhat favorable spots in order to deepen the fervor for the UFC product in the area.

In this case it appears to me that other than the main event and just a couple other match-ups this may be the thinnest, least talented/recognized lineup of competitors that I have witnessed and few are from Mexico though the whole of South America is represented well.

Most if not all of these bouts are very tightly lined which indicates to me that the line makers have as little clue to these combatants as many MMA Enthusiasts. When a card like this presents itself one must balance the potential opportunity to the potential risk which is why more times than not these foreign cards are used to gather data on fighters for future use as opposed to trying to determine the outcome of a couple regional fighters being shipped up to be on the show.

Fortunately for us they gave us a main event we can actually sink out teeth into.

*please note that Mexico City is some 10,000 feet above sea level. Handicapping fighters who have been in the environment for at least two weeks is an extremely effective way to determine value in this card (or others at elevation). In the case of this main event each fighter has been training in Mexico City for some time so while there is no tangible advantage in the main event there sure will be for other fights. It’s my business to understand this potential advantage and where it may occur so please check GambLou.com on Saturday and receive this most critical information!

Yair Rodriguez +100 vs. Jeremy Stephens -120 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

This main event pits a grizzled power punching veteran in Stephens against a young Mexican talent in Rodriguez that should handle this his second main event opportunity well more effectively than he did his first one (UFC 211 May 2017) a fight in which Frankie Edgar absolutely destroyed a young, inexperienced and nowhere near ready Yair Rodriguez.

That beatdown was enough to destroy the career of many a man yet Rodriguez took a little time then returned from that whuppin to defeat Chan Sung Jung (The Korean Zombie) in his last outing in November of last year. That result delighted the UFC as it’s long been the UFC’s ambition to parlay Rodriguez’s flash and pugilistic popularity to the Mexican market just as they are again this Saturday.

Stephens enters the cage for his thirty second UFC matchup off a couple straight losses to top seven Featherweights Jose Aldo and Zabit Magomedshapirov which there is no shame in. Stephens is a fighter whose offense is predicated not as much on output as it is on power. Stephens looks to engage for a ‘throw down’ and he views himself as the stronger more powerful fighter in any match-up he competes in.

Stephens game plan will be interesting for if he steals the blueprint from Edgar and forces the Mexican fighter against the cage then onto the floor, he could dominate the younger less wrestling equip mixed martial artist.  However, Stephens is a warrior and I’m not certain that he’ll be able to overcome his instinct to ‘fight’. I believe from the opening bell he’ll try to take this fight directly to Rodriguez, swarm all over him in an attempt to make this fight a frenetic one and try to take him out and in this approach, I see definite trouble for the thirty-three-year-old.

Rodriguez enters this fight needing to answer the question of how he’ll handle a top ten physically dominating, forward pressing fighter in Stephens. As mentioned, Rodriguez never had a chance against Edgar in his first attempt to headline a UFC card so has his game developed enough to be able overcome the heat that Stephens will bring?

Rodriguez’s approach to this fight surely involves legwork and conditioning which will allow him to maintain space thus allowing the younger, quicker, longer fighter to fight at his strength which is volume striking and precision kicking. Rodriguez athleticism, his past experience with a main event situation similar to this and the fact that he is taking this bout in his home Country all combine to make this fight a most interesting one especially considering the guile and grit of Jeremy Stephens.

If Stephens tries to get inside to wrestle, Rodriguez MUST discourage him with knees and strikes which will keep Stephen’s on the outside allowing the Mexican striker to blister the oncoming slugger with punches and leg kicks from every angle. If Stephens is unsuccessful with getting this fight to the floor and is forced to head hunt, he’ll play right into the strength of Rodriguez which is how I see this fight unfolding.

Rodriguez’s physical composition, his athleticism, his willingness to grind on after the Edgar debacle are all reasons to believe he will bring his best Saturday night and that’s not mentioning the intangible that is, being a Mexican fighter. Rodriguez embarrassed himself and his people in his last attempt to deliver Mexican MMA fans to the UFC and I feel he’s in much better position to correct that outcome this Saturday.

Rodriguez opened -165 for this bout and the flow of dough on Stephens has created value on a fighter that I believe should be going off as a favorite in this fight. Respect your bookmaker!

Rodriguez +100

--Updated 9-21-19 10am PT--

Main Event

The main event presents great intrigue as Stephens is as prepared for this fight as he has ever been which by itself indicates how important this fight is for the remainder of his illustrious career. With a win he remains relevant in the division and with a loss he becomes a big-name gatekeeper for the youthful flock of modern mixed martial artists looking to use his name as springboard for their own careers. Sports is cruel MF’ers!

Meanwhile Yair Rodriguez can catch lightning in a bottle with a win tonight as no Country on earth holds as much passion for fighting as do the mujeres y hombres de Mexico. The UFC and Mexico both hold high hopes for Rodriguez who can deliver a rabid fanbase to the organization while propelling upward as a talented new young face of MMA. I love this fight.

Grasso -130 vs. Esparza +120

Grasso’s the younger larger stronger lady although her biggest area of improvement (wrestling and grappling) happen to be Esparza’s singular strengths. I believe Grasso is simply too large, too strong and too determined in this spot and feel she should be priced a bit higher. I released Grasso -120 earlier this week. Current pricing still offers value in my judgement.

Quinones -160 vs. Huachin +150

I highlight this fight because it represents to me the best example of two prideful Latino’s getting together for a good old-fashioned fist fight. Quinones is the taller Mexican fighter who has faced superior competition, he wants to clasp and grapple when he has it going his way as well, he can strike but his plan will be to muffle his opponent a proud Peruvian puncher in Huachin.

Huachin I believe has the speed and power to clock Quinones on his way in but he’ll need to maintain a little space in order to fight inside the pocket where his striking and quickness may expose the longer Quinones. Huachin is live in this spot as he opened +175 and some money has come his way. I believe that in this fight the younger less experienced Peruvian may in fact deliver a profitable pup performance once this fight is completed.

Huachin +150 (half) patiencedog is gaining value

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Major changes coming to GambLou.com have the crew here at World Headquarters scrambling a little to get today’s UFC released submitted in timely fashion.

In a few weeks my UFC work will begin appearing exclusively on SharpAngleSports.com a site that is quite unique in the world of Profitable Sports Gaming.

The philosophy at SAS is one of ‘Specialization’ where the model has professional’s working solely for the interest of the client as we concentrate on only one sport per professional as opposed to the old school model where sports handicappers work every sport under the sun…a model both outdated but more importantly one that benefits a handicapper selling ‘picks’ in order to make a living as opposed to this model which in transparent fashion has top line professionals concentrating on profit one sports segment at a time.

Today’s successful businesses offer specialized services as opposed to generalized self serving platfirms that do not serve the client and Sharp Angle Sports is the first entity to address this most important aspect of modern sports gaming.

The Professionals at SAS have ‘narrowed their focus in order to increase their expertise’ and they provide results that are transparent and publicized. In fact last week SAS realized a 4-2 ATS result.

Thus far Brad Feinberg, Anthony Stalter myself and JAMES SALINAS are the core handicappers now, each providing bottom line profitability to those who engage SAS.

Salinas (for those who may not understand who he is) needs to be googled to back this statement up but suffice it to say that in my opinion, James Salinas is one of the sharpest minds in NFL handicapping period!

Sharp Angle Sports people…. get to know this bunch…now....

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--published 9-11-19 Point Spread Weekly—

Saturday evening’s UFC card takes place in Vancouver, BC. with a highly anticipated main event in the deeply talented Lightweight division. While this card returns to a more traditional late afternoon first bell the talent is modest in nature although a few sizzling match-ups have been placed within this slate to quell the Canadian craving for KO’s.

Justin ‘the Highlight’ Gaethje -190 vs. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone +165 Lightweight (155lbs.) Main Event

Violence.

Few need to become acquainted with ‘the Cowboy’ a refined mixed martial artist who may be the most active fighter on the UFC roster. Cerrone’s fought seventeen times since 2015 realizing an 11-6 record and only being bested by fighters ranked in the top five of their division at the time or fighters much larger and more physical than Cerrone. It’s widely understood that the best way to beat Cerrone is to bully, pressure him and force him backwards. Fighters who try to engage Cerrone from distance can be pecked apart by his precision striking, spinning kicks and movement.

Cerrone’s recent work displays a fighter keenly focused while also exhibiting in my judgement some residual from fighting almost four times a year for the last five to seven years in the UFC. Cerrone is a world class fighter but he is also thirty-five years of age and he lives hard. The tread is surely wearing on this outstanding talent.

In the other corner of the Octagon stands Justin Gaethje’s who is basically the style of fighter that can challenge Cerrone to his core as Gaethje is all about forward pressure, power punching and greasy, grimy grit. Gaethje, who has a complete wrestling base gladly accepts taking one to give one and, in this fight, it will be his plan to (in unrelenting fashion) pressure, crowd and maul Cerrone in what may appear to be more a barroom brawl than a UFC fight.

It will be Gaethje’s goal to walk down Cerrone and destroy him and most believe he has the goods to do exactly that. However, Cerrone is aware of the template to test him and his recent experience with fatherhood seems to have provided him a noticeable boost in focus.

Cerrone will need to utilize movement to maintain his spacing in order to blister the incoming Gaethje with strikes. This must be his tactic, stick and move to eventually sap the slugger of his strength which could allow him to then turn the fight in the latter stages…. if only Cerrone can get there.

As the late great Boxing Trainer Angelo Dundee would quip, “Styles make Fights” and in the case of Saturday’s main event those words ring true with these two warriors from different fighting worlds clashing to determine who moves forward.

Gaethje opened -250 for this fight and is now -190. I feel the opening number was correct and I’ll release Gaethje -190 as the first leg of a two-team parlay which allows me to invest a single unit on Gaethje as opposed to that almost 2-1 price. I’ll close out the second leg at a later date provided Gaethje is able to get his hand raised Saturday night.

--updated 914-19 10am PT—

The Main event has seen some money come into Cowboy as the line stands Gaethje -165 vs. Cerrone +145. Value on Gaethje and I like the fact that he’s looking for some ‘get back’ in this fight. Does that help his cause or lead him into Cowboy’s kicks? We’ll sure see soon enough!

My second release for the main event is a wager on a prop: “Fight starts Rd 3” +110. I believe these two tussle for a while. Gaethje won’t go quickly and I also believe it may take him some time to get to Cowboy IF, in fact he does.

Katona -145 vs. Azure +125

I released Azure +140 yesterday shortly after weigh-ins. He’s more a fighter physically and mentally than is the somewhat cerebral introverted Katona. Azure’s wrestling, relentlessness and size are his advantages here.

Azure +125

Crute -110 vs. Circunov +100

The Circunov fade is based on his porcelain chin coupled with the fact that he’s in there w Jimmy Crute, an Aussie slugger who will do all he can to walk Circunov down and make this a stand up affair. Crute at 22 is raw but powerful and Circunov, knowing his own limitations will come with a plan to make this a grope on the floor. Circunov’s size is a substantial advantage here as in my judgment he awards Crute his PhD. in MMA.

Circunov +100

Live dogs I may release via Twitter: Hall +225; Skelly +150. Let’s see where these numbers go as we elbow our way through this card. Again, any other releases than those mentioned above (in red). if released will be released via @Twitter.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC 242. Abu Dhabi shows itself off this weekend with a fabulous fight card where the pups seem to be at a premium. Let’s tackle a couple of fights in this the second of twelve straight cards this fall. 

As is customary my main event breakdown for VSiN’s ‘Point Spread Weekly’ magazine starts us off then a few dynamic dog droppings with a few comments.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

--published 9-4-19 Point Spread Weekly—

This week’s UFC 242 is possibly the organizations most anticipated overseas fight spectacular ever. From deep in the heart of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Lightweight Champion Khabib Nurmagomedov will look to earn back his lightweight (155lbs.) title against current interim Champion Dustin Poirier. Nurmagomedov was forced to evacuate the Lightweight belt after mauling Irishman Conor McGregor in his defense of that title last September while Poirier bested Max Holloway for the vacant belt this past April.

Khabib Nurmagomedov -450 vs. Champion Dustin Poirier +360 Lightweight Championship

On his way to earning the Lightweight title earlier this year Dustin Poirier has confronted and beaten every possible challenger put in front of him. In April Poirier beat current Featherweight Champion Max Holloway to earn the interim Lightweight Title and set up this most epic confrontation with the undefeated Nurmagomedov who most every competent fight Enthusiast will agree is the undisputed pound for pound UFC Champion until someone is able to defeat him.

Nurmagomedov who’s mix of world class wrestling, sambo and Judo make him an efficient finisher of opponents will have a simple blueprint, engage in the stand up only long enough to smash Poirier up and into the fence then clasp onto him, drag him to the floor and put twenty-five minutes of mauling upon him. Nurmagomedov’s unrelenting pressure and unbelievable conditioning are foundational to his dominant fighting style.

Poirier’s one chink may be that in past confrontations he’s rarely had to compete against any world class wrestler/grapplers let alone one in Nurmagomedov’s realm. He’ll need to try to mimic the approach Al Iaquinta used against Nurmagomedov by squatting low in his approach to striking in order to protect against Khabib’s most effective single leg takedown. This will be the key to the fight. If Poirier can keep Nurmagomedov from taking him down to the mat or at least manage to get back to his feet once the fight does go to the floor, then he’ll have an opportunity to do what no one has accomplished.

It must be mentioned that Khabib is a Muslim and this fight not only is in the heart of a Muslim Country but will be attended by Kings, Princes, Presidents and anyone who is anyone in the Arab world. This fight is not only an exportation of the UFC into this region of the world but also a showcase for Abu Dhabi and the Arab world in itself.

Nurmagomedov, a Muslim fighter will be the main focus of this event (along with the other Muslim fighters on this card) and while the passionate crowd will fuel Nurmagomedov’s will to win there will also be unbelievable pressure on him. Meanwhile Poirier enters with little expectation as for most he’s there to play the meek lamb and get sheared come Saturday.

Poirier is the most complete and capable fighter that Nurmagomedov has faced thus far in his career. This fight will not be an easy task for Khabib and while I absolutely regard him as the favorite in this bout, I feel that current pricing is inflated.

I handicap Nurmagomedov a solid -220 to -240 in this spot therefore, I’ll take the value on Poirier +360 (currently) but with this advisory: be patient and wait for the price on Poirier to continue to rise then strike at the highpoint.

The demographic wagering on the UFC is a young and somewhat unsophisticated lot and the parlay players will be using Nurmagomedov as a simple win when they drop their 2-3-4 teamers down on Saturday. I feel +400 is not out of the question and will monitor this closely.

I’m also interested in the props for this bout and will have more to release once those come available (GambLou.com; @GambLou on Twitter) and once the weigh-ins have been completed.

--updated 9-6-19 2:30pm PT—

I have no update on the main event other than to affirm Nurmagomedov as a solid -250 chalk BUT I can’t agree that Poirier at Lightweight is +360 to anyone. value

Taisumov -280 vs. Ferreira +255

We’re going to stand in front of two Russian set up fights this week and in each we’ll be obtaining advantage as the price on these Russian/Muslin fighters will be inflated. Sure Taisumov is being placed in a favorable position here but Ferreira’s recent form and attitude post his layoff have me believing he can grind this one out with Taisumov. The Russian will own advantages in speed and precision but Ferreira enters a confident fighter who I believe will force this fight on Taisumov and perhaps even drag him down for a rock and roll. I'd be patient with this one as they'll be rabid for the Russians Saturday and these dog prices should rise....

Ferreira +255 (half)

Tukhugov -320 vs. Murphy +290

I’ve not been overly impressed with Tukhugov. Though his Sambo is masterful his fight attitude seems without urgency and he chooses to stand rather than fight to his advantage. Murphy takes the fight on short notice but he’d been preparing for another fight and is well conditioned as well he’s fulfilling his dream to fight and remain in the UFC. The Russian’s going to have to show me…I released Murphy (who opened +375) earlier this week +330…..

Murphy +330 (half)

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming

Welcome UFC fans and fans in fact you must be to wade through a shallow card from Chine in the middle of the night. I regard this slate as offering only 4-6 bettable fights and will be watching all for reviews and data but only wagering on a few. Let’s not forget that tonight we begin a trek of twelve straight UFC Saturday night slates…. the time to peak will be as we egress into more talent laden cards as opposed to stretching to find value with regional talent a half a world away.

Here’s my ‘Point Spread Weekly’ Insight the Octagon article published 8-28-19 followed by a few updated comments.

-Let’s Fight-

(All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard wager of one unit or $100.00.  I employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for.  On line, up to date reporting for all sporting events I work is available by accessing the ‘Profitability’ tab on the Gamblou.com webpage.  The Profitability tab displays win percentage, gross profit and ROI by week, month and year.  Profitable Sports Gaming, it’s business).

Insight the Octagon

Shenzhen, China is the UFC’s host city Saturday commencing a twelve-week run of fight cards that will end in Sao Paolo, Brazil November 16th.  While the fan base in Brazil is highly sophisticated/knowledgeable regarding MMA, the base in China is vastly underdeveloped while at the same time offering the UFC a potential for explosive growth.

Those cards in Brazil allow the UFC to highlight local and regional talent often in advantageous positions to maintain the fervor of their growth in the area.

In the case with this week’s Shenzhen card it’s my belief that the organization (for most of the card) tossed warm under developed local/regional talent into match-ups with further unrecognizable overseas opponents resulting in a slate not quite up to normal UFC standards but one that will be desirable to a Chinese clientele whose appetite for MMA is voracious and growing.

This fight card will begin Saturday at 12am PT with the main card commencing at 3am PT so we have a situation here where somewhat unrecognizable talent is fighting half a world away in the middle of the night. That said, we break down main events here and I’ll offer an insight into the top two match-ups this weekend.

Jessica Andrade -180 vs. Weili Zhang +150 Woman’s Strawweight (125lbs.) Championship

Andrade is a hand grenade in that she is undersized at 5’2” but highly explosive, athletic and mighty strong. She won the title three months ago with an impressive slam of former Champion Rose Namajunas in Brazil and now toe’s the company line for a date in Brazil against a fighter quite one dimensional in fight arsenal yet one riding a nineteen-fight win streak the last three of which have been in the UFC.

Zhang, the Chinese challenger a thirty-year-old purple belt in BJJ is really a basic stand up striker and will not choose to go to the floor against Andrade on any condition. Rather, Zhang is going to try to utilize movement to supplement her height and reach advantage and pick Andrade apart with straight strikes as the Champion attempts to get inside to maul, grope and grapple with Zhang.

Andrade on her part will need to navigate the length and effectiveness of Zhang’s jab and earn her way inside the pocket. This will mute Zhang’s striking effectiveness while simultaneously allowing Andrade the positioning to impart destruction on her challenger from an up close and personal manner.

Andrade is a new Champion, one travelling to China for her first defense against a local who is lacking in quality of past competition but who has momentum and a nation of Billions behind her. Zhang is not out of her league in this spot as evidenced by the current price on this fight but based on who Andrade’s been in the Octagon with, I must favor her here in what could well be a five-round decision.

With overseas fights it’s mandatory to consume the weigh-in process prior to making any commitment based purely on the complexities travel imparts on the weigh-in process.

Pass at this point

Elizieu dos Santos -300 vs. Li Jingliang +240 welterweight (170lb.) co main event

I bring this fight up simply to highlight the dynamic match-up. Sure, this card is shy on name recognition, talent and hype but this fight may be one of the most brutal beat downs of the year! These two men will absolutely attack one another in this fight.

Jingliang, nicknamed ‘the Leech’ is a deliberate, forward plodding stand up striker who looks to finish opponents while displaying little form of quickness, fluidity or defense. That said, his toughness is legendary and he’ll absolutely be dangerous in this spot in front of the Chinese hordes.

His opponent dos Santos may be one of the more under rated fighters in the Welterweight (170lbs) division. Dos Santos has dynamite in each hand and will be the faster more explosive striker equipped with a fully functional advantage on the mat.

dos Santos is in a most dangerous predicament here for he’s fighting a challenger well below his status a half a world away from his Country in the other man’s back yard. This is a gutsy call by dos Santos and he has well more to lose in this fight than to gain which is why I give ‘the Leech’ a little consideration in this spot but will choose to wait and determine if this line may approach +300. As we know when considering underdogs, it’s often advantageous to be patient and allow the price to gain value.

--updated 8-30-19 1:45pm PT—

I’m watching the main event price closely because I feel that Zhang is in over her head here trying to accommodate her own ambitions, the UFC’s need for a local to head this main event as well the weight of a billion Chinese fight fans. Andrade opened -265 and is a full basis point reduced. While I regard Zhang as potentially dangerous the value is clearly on the more well-rounded Brazilian bulldog in this spot but I’m waiting to gain further price reduction. If it moves up a penny, I’ll jump but I want further value…the release is

Andrade -155 or lower (part 1 open 2 team parlay)

That’s it for Shenzhen fight fans. Let’s pick up a unit then move ahead to next week where we have a fertile card rife with talent and underdog opportunity.

GambLou.com

Profitable Sports Gaming