UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro is a fight card stacked with thirteen scheduled fights.
Most of the fights take on a ‘Brazil vs. the World’ theme as the UFC is always keen on highlighting local/regional athletes when it travels to far away lands.
The organization often places local fighters in ‘favorable’ positions regarding their matchups as the foundation of the UFC’s expansion is to electrify the crowds in the cities it visits in order to seed the growth of its brand in that area.
Fighters in Rio will compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon and in front of a crowd that athletes from Brazil strive to compete in front of while combatants from around the world yearn to compete in front of these hysterical fans because of their knowledge of the game.
There are only four fights featuring the larger men at 170lbs. or above but three of those are heavyweight battles which have the potential to electrify the crowd and put them in the proper mentality to support their local/regional athletes.
Lastly, there are five battles where the youth advantage is five years or greater. Fighters who sport a five-year age (youth) advantage over their adversary earn victory above 60% of the time and that percentage grows as the age disparity increases.
Last week Dom Reyes performed like Dom DeLuise in the octagon and was iced in the first round of his fight in Perth moving digital results to 20-23 +.15u
Time to earn!
Charles Oliveira -120 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +100 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event
Eighth ranked lightweight fighter Mateusz Gamrot arrives to Rio an overlooked and somewhat disrespected fighter.
After a loss in 2022 Gamrot has rolled through lightweight competition until he lost an ultra-close split decision fight to Dan Hooker in Australia in 2024, a fight that could have gone to either fighter based on my scoring of the fight.
Gamrot is a world class pressure wrestler who earned numerous decorations in wrestling prior to transitioning into MMA. He’s credited with a blue belt in BJJ and while his striking is still developing, Gamrot’s able to use his striking to effectively gain wrestling range which allows him to clasp onto opponents then maneuver them against the cage then onto the mat for a mauling.
Gamrot’s abilities are so sound that he is sidestepped by opponents because he is so dangerous in the cage as well he gets overlooked by the organization because of how effectively he uses his dominant wrestling.
The UFC prefers (and bonuses) striking battles where they may highlight vicious KO’s and phenomenal finishes, so Gamrot and his world class wrestling have tasted some discrimination in gaining top five battles because of his wrestling prowess.
Brazil’s Charles ‘DoBronx’ Oliveira is a world class mixed martial artist decorated with a 4th degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black prajied in Muay Thai.
Oliveira has competed against the absolute elite between the featherweight and lightweight divisions and at thirty-five he remains every bit as dangerous as anyone in the division.
Oliveira’s going to be the longer athlete in the cage which will compliment his striking/kicking. I handicap Oliveira to hold substantial advantage while this fight is being competed on the feet for Oliveira’s striking is more speed based, diversity laden and precision founded than almost anyone in the division let alone this vice grip wrestler from Poland.
The interesting facet of this fight will occur when this fight hits the floor for Oliveira is at the top of the totem pole when it comes to BJJ while Gamrot’s wrestling is on the same world class level as Oliveira’s grappling is. That said, Gamrot wants this fight on the floor because he too believes his wrestling is superior to Charles’ BJJ!
To get the opportunity to watch these two roll on the canvas would be a special treat for all UFC fans not to mention that it is my judgement Gamrot MUST drag this battle to the floor to display his dominance because he believes that his pressure wrestling can overcome Oliveira’s world class BJJ.
One of the first mixed martial arts edicts I was taught by a Gracie fifth degree BJJ blackbelt Head Coach was that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.
With that in mind I must trust that Gamrot’s unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio and his deep belief that should he lose this fight, he’ll freefall into obscurity within this division will not only allow him to bring the Brazilian to the floor, but once there he will hold that wrestling advantage and use it to his favor.
Gamrot +100 1u
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -115
Jafel Filho -110 vs. Clayton Carpenter -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)
This fight is another top end Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu talent facing a world class American wrestling savant.
Filho, a Brazilian from Rio, is another world class BJJ practitioner. A Nove Uniao team member, Filho will have the advantage of being the taller, longer fighter in this matchup.
Filho’s striking is low volume and low power as he utilizes stand up only position himself to transition any fight onto the floor for a roll.
In Clayton Carpenter we have a special American wrestling talent who arrives to Rio on the bounce …off a loss.
That loss to Tagir Ulanbekov was a terrific experience for Carpenter for it displayed that he has the ability to be a world class UFC flyweight, but that he must not overestimate his wrestling especially if he finds himself in bottom position.
Carpenter’s wrestling, his cardio and his striking together with his desire to be ‘the actor’ in this fight will enable him to dominate in this stern test in Brazil. Again, as I was taught, world class wrestling is kryptonite for world class BJJ!
Carpenter -110 1u
Total in this bout: 2.5Rds over -170
Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com
Get all my final releases post weigh-ins there.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!