Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Uncategorized

‘Bout Business Podcast 2024

‘Bout Business Podcast 2024

Now accepting Memberships for 2024! 

In 2024 the only place to access the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be on the GambLou.com webpage.

The podcast is going behind a paywall for the purpose of creating a consistent stream of contributions/donations to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ.

I would ask those considering a membership to focus on these pertinent business directives:

  • Everything I do here is business. First proceeds from any podcast income will go to paying off the cost of the new GambLou.com webpage.
  • Green Roll Media is my podcast partner and for two years they have worked with me to initiate our momentum. In 2024, proceeds from podcast memberships (in conjunction with webpage fulfillment) will be paid to Green Roll. They have produced a brilliant podcast for our profitability and it’s time they too receive compensation for their investment into ‘Bout Business Podcast success.

MOST IMPORTANT

  • Investors who sign up for the podcast’s yearly membership (the Tap out, $199.99) will be provided regular updates on the flow of monetary contributions to the Mission.

For decades I have been theorizing on how I could contribute business proceeds to the San Xavier Mission and this is the vehicle I have chosen.

So rather than regard this as ‘Lou cashing in on his ability to provide listeners with winning positions on UFC fights’…. which will always be the case. I’d ask membership holders to regard yourselves as partners with GambLou.com in contributing to a cause that’s been important to me for decades.

As an independent sports handicapper, it’s critical that I try to lead the charge for independent thinking and acting. While the many podcast giants are mongering for hits, tweets, bottom line and selling swag to pad their wallets… our goal here is different.

The intention is to simply create a contribution stream that comes from the ‘Bout Business Podcast and is directed to the San Xavier Mission.

Request

My request is that Fight Enthusiasts consider a membership to the ‘Bout Business Podcast with the understanding that you will not only profit from the positions released (‘Bout Business profit 2023: 28.33units, 16% ROI, average +128) but you will also be teaming with me in directing a steady stream of monetary contribution to the San Xavier del Bac Mission.

For more information on the Mission please hit the ’San Xavier del Bac Mission’ tab at the top of this webpage and you may view my history with the Mission.

For more information on ‘Bout Business Memberships please hit the ‘Bout Business’ tab at the top of this webpage

Questions, issues, comments? Lou@GambLou.com

Thank you for any consideration

Louis Finocchiaro

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 295 Prochazka vs. Pereira: Gut Czech

Five UFC fight cards remain in 2023 starting with this week’s UFC 295 from New York City. As is often the case in the volatile UFC, some of the athletes have been replaced but competitive viable betting opportunities surely remain.

Last week amid a slew of fight cancellations my release of the Danish Viking Nicolas Dalby to provide a stern test for the talented Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim did result in a successful win bet on the Over. However, I wish I’d given Dalby more consideration straight up as he knocked Bonfim out in the second round as a +380/+400 underdog.

‘Bout Business Podcast 2023: 95-87  +32.19u  18% ROI  (125)

Jiri Prochazka +110 vs. Alex Pereira +130 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title

This title fight features Prochazka, the former title holder prior to his devastating shoulder injury, competing against Pereira for the title which is currently vacated after most recent champion Jamahal Hill suffered injury a few months ago.

Pereira is ranked third in the division after but one bout against elite talent Jan Blachowicz. He has much to gain with a win here and plenty to prove namely that his power and striking effectiveness can carry into this heavier, larger light heavyweight division.

Working in Pereira’s favor are his rapid evolution into MMA, his mentor former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira a former foe of Prochazka, and his zeal to earn UFC belts in two different divisions.

For the Brazilian Pereira decorated with a black belt in kickboxing and a brown belt in BJJ, there is much to gain from a victory here.

In Prochazka we must rely on the fact that his shoulder which was damn near torn off like a cooked chicken wing has fully recovered and that he is not only cleared to compete but is 110% prepared for war physically and mentally.

Both of these men sport shallow UFC history therefore the significant striking data is somewhat skewed. Each athlete delivers effective powerful damaging shots at high rates. Pereira lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and allows 3.70 so he is accruing damage while mindful of defense.

Prochazka delivers his strikes with similar frequency but with well more power but his defense is less sound. Jiri lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute but he absorbs 5.40 per minute which makes for a fighter ‘willing to eat one to give one’.

It’s my position that Pereira is the more diligent, refined, precise striker while Jiri is the more telegraphing but devastating one.

Each man maims opponents with bludgeoning leg kicks in conjunction with those long damaging strikes but with Jiri the power and devastating effects are clear as he’s finished all three of his UFC opponents.

Pereira has not displayed the finishing traits or ferocity in the cage we have seen from Jiri especially in his sole light heavyweight tussle against Blachowicz.

Makers have made the total in this bout 1.5Rds Over -130

I can’t envision something that looks like an early finish in this fight.

Pat Sabatini -135 vs. Diego Lopes +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Sabatini, from Philadelphia area brings a well-rounded fight arsenal to his bouts. Solid wrestling complimented by black belts in BJJ and a Korean Karate fight form called ‘Tang Soo Do’ are Sabatini’s credentials. When he has it going well Sabatini employs aggressive forward pressure to clasp, clinch and control opponents. He’s dominant in the clinch, against the fence or on the floor with opponents for on the feet he is unsure of himself offensively and somewhat ineffective defensively.

Lopes hits the ‘Big Apple’ with revenge on his mind for his UFC debut was in New Jersey against Movsar Evloev this past May. In that bout Lopes looked like anything but a debuting athlete. He gave eighth ranked Evloev all he could handle in that decision loss and it was that night that I recognized future opportunity on this young Brazilian gamer.

In this fight Lopes will be the younger man by three years, he’s two inches taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage arms and legs.

As importantly Lopes BJJ grappling is on par to Sabatini’s BJJ wrestling though I credit Lopes with far more fluidity and natural striking ability as well his ability to take a shot to the schnoz is a strength.

Achilles heel to Sabatini unfortunately is his balsa wood beak for if flushed on the face Sabatini can fold up as we witnessed against a long, tall, gangly Damon Jackson.

Once this bout begins, I look for Lopes to be fresher, faster, stronger and able to keep this fight standing and at distance. From there his striking will have maximum effect on Sabatini as he tries to work his way inside to engage.

Lopes +115

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -180

Benoit St. Denis -230 vs. Matt Frevola +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

I’m warning everyone now that this fight is pure violence.

Matt ‘the Steamrolla’ Frevola, a lieutenant in the US Army reserve fights out of Long Island with the Longo Weidman team. He holds a brown belt in BJJ but his game really revolves around striking …with power. Frevola’s ideal scenario is to engage anyone, anywhere in a closed quarter, flat footed throwdown.

Frevola’s power is fight ending as witnessed by the cocky Drew Dober who was iced by Frevola in his last outing. However, in this fight Frevola steps up in class against an athlete that I believe is on his way straight to the top five of the lightweight division.

In St. Denis we have an ex-military green beret in the French Army. He’s taller, longer and younger than is the local New Yorker as well he is gifted with a more complete fight arsenal. St. Denis thrives in the firestorm of fury and is able to dominate anywhere the fight takes place.

His foe Frevola needs fights to remain on the feet to have his best chance to win while St. Denis can shake, rattle or roll from anywhere in the cage.

Frevola will take this fight directly to St. Denis. St. Denis will walk down Frevola with urgency and ill intent. The result will be some outstanding watching!

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -150

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PT. Look for it across all platforms.

Enjoy the bouts and Thank you for reading.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Sao Paolo Almeida vs. Lewis: Jailton bait

Sao Paolo, Brazil is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night event. This card offers 13 bouts each of which feature a native Brazilian athlete competing against opponents shipping into Sao Paolo from around the world.

It’s been since 2019 that the UFC has visited Sao Paolo so viewers should be prepared to witness great bouts and as importantly some of the most passionate, voracious fight fans in the world. They’ll sneer, jeer and throw beer at the athletes competing against the Brazilian local’s win lose or draw.

The preliminary card starts at 3pm PT with the main card dropping at 6pm PT.

In UFC 294 two weeks ago, Mike Breeden +250 withstood a battering for two rounds at the hands of debuting Indian fighter Ansul Jubli, before he ‘let the dog out’ and knocked out the gassed Jubli in round 3.

Digital results to date: 18-18 + .15u

Breeden got us back into the black but we need to grind positive profit as there remain but six fight cards remaining in 2023.

Jailton Almeida -450 vs. Derrick Lewis +390 Heavyweight (265lbs) Main event

Almeida was originally scheduled for a sterner test against Curtis Blaydes before Blaydes fell out and was replaced by the singularly dimensioned Lewis.

Lewis saved his UFC career in his last outing KO’ing Brazilian athlete Rogerio de Lima. With Lewis, it’s all about the power as he has profuse punching and kicking power despite the fact that he tips the scales at the 266 weight limit each time he weighs in.

Lewis though a purple belt in BJJ has little to no wrestling chops, he’s fundamentally flawed on the ground especially from the bottom position. When he can compete standing and especially early in fights, he’s extremely athletic, explosive and dangerous.

In Brazilian Almeida we have an athlete who has competed at 205lbs. and was dominant when competing there.

At heavyweight, Almeida hits the scales about 235lbs. and while he is used to competing against the larger lumbering heavyweights in the division Saturday, he’ll face a man at least 35 pounds heavier than he who sports deep UFC experience, profuse power and a willingness to engage.

In his last several bouts Almeida’s mission to ground the opposing athlete has been pronounced as he shoots from his corner like a linebacker blitzing.

The intrigue in this bout will be to determine how much time it takes Almeida to ground the bloated ‘Black Beast’ who knows exactly what is coming then find a way to reign damage from the top and more than likely submit him.

The total in this bout is 1.5 Under -300 which is logical for Almeida works quickly and Lewis only path to success revolves around his singular path of success which is an early upper cut or flying knee KO.

Pass for now

Gabriel Bonfim -575 vs. Nicholas Dalby +460 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

These two Brazilian Bonfim brothers are absolute killers.

In this co main event we’ll see 15-0 Gabe, the younger brother and the Bonfim with more championship potential in my judgement than his older brother Ismail who is also on this main card but is also quite dangerous.

Bonfim has finished every opponent he has faced and in the UFC he’s 2-0 after sawing through two competent but journeymen opponents.

In this bout Bonfim steps up in class though the market does not appear to believe such.

In Nicholas Dalby we get a throwback to Ragnar Lodbrok for Dalby, a Dane is as pure a throwback to pure Viking warrior as is possible.

In this his second stint in the UFC Dalby has earned a 5-1 mark and he’s done it by being aggressive and making the fight though Dalby’s fight all go to decision which is foundational to my handicap on this bout.

Dalby is thirty-eight, twelve years older than Bonfim. He’s also 2” shorter than the Brazilian though Dalby does own a 2” reach advantage.

Dalby’s been in with the more pedigreed UFC talent and has fared well. He’s armed with belts In Karate and BJJ and enters this fight understanding exactly where a victory here puts him.

Once this fight begins our Viking friend will need to weather a furious onslaught from young Bonfim who will come at him with everything he has for Bonfim has seen the 3rd round only once since 2018.

It’s Dalby’s durability, experience and the level of competition faced that makes me feel that the price on the favorite is way too expensive. That said, I’ll lay off the side and focus on the total where I believe the real value lies.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -145

Dalby must prepare for an absolute onslaught early and I believe he weathers it and forces Bonfim to have to earn his victory Saturday.

Fight starts Rd 2 -130

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning this week for UFC Sao Paolo. Get it on any podcast platform.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming