The Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas is the host for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.
The fight slate consists of twelve fights to be waged in the Apex’s 25’ octagon and in front of a limited group of attendees.
Of the twelve fights, seven take place at 115, 125 and 135 pounds and only three will be waged at weight classes 170lbs and above.
It’s becoming clear that APEX events host lesser know personalities and smaller bodied fighters which surely, by the numbers reduces the opportunity for violent finishes.
There are nine US fighters populating the card with thirteen athletes having to travel into the states from out of the country. Three fights do feature a fighter from the US who competes against a combatant that must travel into the USA in order to cut weight then compete.
Main event participant Belal Muhammad, Jordan Leavitt, and Chelsea Chandler are the fighters holding some home advantage as each of their foes must travel in from Brazil in order to compete. Advantage US athletes.
Last week we used Alex Perez in his fight against Su Mudaerji as a slight chalk, but the bout was stopped after a damaging kick to the jewels by Su rendered Perez unable to continue.
We’ll tote our momentum forward into this slate of battles.
Belal Muhammad -125 vs. Gabriel Bonfim +105 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Bonfim, one of two brothers competing in the UFC is a fighter with complete skills though no belts, ribbons, or accolades.
Bonfim is a power striker/kicker who is athletic, fluid afoot and highly dangerous for he packs profuse power behind his strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees.
In this battle Bonfim will hold a substantial eight year youth advantage to go with his height and leg reach edge. Bonfim’s grappling/wrestling is pronounced and together with his aggression/size/power makes him a matchup nightmare for almost every welterweight on the roster.
In former champion Belal Muhammad we have a world class wrestling talent. Muhammad has lost his last two fights to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, but he was competitive in each despite the fact that he fought an unintelligent title fight against JDM choosing to strike with a striker as opposed to grinding him out on the canvas with his advance wrestling ability.
In his fight against Machado Garry, Muhammad was simply unable to catch up to the nimble, deft moving Irishman. When forging forward in his deliberate unrelenting wrestling style Muhammad can make a strong motivated adversary eventually look overwhelmed, lost, weak and timid.
When the bell for this fight rings I look for Muhammad, who has not competed in the cage since November of 2025 to immediately turn to his advantage in almost any matchup….his wrestling.
As I have mentioned several times in this column, world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ and while Bonfim is hardly a world class jiu-Jitsu specialist he does fold the specialty into his power striking.
Bonfim will to strive to maintain appropriate distance in order to unleash power hooks, crosses, and knees onto Muhammad as Muhammad forcefully grinds his way inside the pocket to engage in his wrestling.
Muhammad must be able to persevere his way through the furious early Bonfim fire of fisticuff in the early stages of this fight for that is when Bonfim’s ferocity and striking acumen are most effective.
When Muhammad manages this bout into the third round and beyond we will witness a change of dominance for Bonfim’s burst will begin to wane while the Muhammad’s forward pressure and top control will transition this fight from a relatively competitive one to a relatively noncompetitive one for Muhammad’s ultimate advantage is his ability to never tire and become more forceful as the fight extends.
Yes Muhammad is thirty-seven and giving up eight years to this young Bonfim bomber, but Muhammad’s cardio, his wrestling and his mental strength are all world class assets that will allow him to separate himself from Bonfim as this fight enters the third round and beyond.
This is a terrific spot for Belal Muhammad
Muhammad -120 2u
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -190
Strong lean Over especially if lined 3.5Rds.
Brendan Allen -220 vs. Edmen Shabazyan +180 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main
Shahbazyan, a Black belt in Shotokan Karate is a power striker who trains in Las Vegas at Extreme Couture.
Shahbazyan is tall for the weight class and though he is ill equipped to deal with adversaries displaying world class wrestling/grappling he is well armed to undergo slugfests that take place on the feet as his height, reach and distance control are exemplary.
In Brendan Allen we have a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ.
Allen is well balanced as a fighter, but his striking is not to the level of his world class grappling. When Allen chooses to transition his fights from feet to floor his results are outstanding.
When Allen is unable to transition bouts to the basement then his elementary striking becomes an obstacle to overcome. His 47% strike defense and negative strike differential per minute of fighting exemplify the need for Allen to immediately engage in the clinch then transition fights to the floor.
So in this battle we have a striker with relatively inept grappling/wrestling skill taking on a fighter in Allen who is average on the feet but world class on the mat.
Once this fight begins it will be Shahbazyan who will look to touch up the feisty Allen as he works his way into the pocket to clasp.
Meanwhile Allen will look to tackle Shabaz an and ground him as soon a practically possible for on the floor and even worse, off his back Shahbazyan is no match for Allen.
Allen’s been training in elevation with Trevor Whittman in Denver, which is a direct tell that he is working diligently to improve his striking as well continue to develop his cardio.
This is a great spot for Brendan Allen who will control this fight in the second and third rounds by utilizing his grappling prowess, he just needs to manage that first round when Shahbazyan comes out fists flying!.
Allen opened -350 and Shahbazyan money has moved the line to its current price of Brendan Allen -220.
As Roger Dalty sang for the Who, ” I call that a bargain.”
Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -185 as well there are some 2.5 Under -165 in the market. Over 1.5 seems a sound consideration.
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms; we’ve been on fire lately. Catch the final releases for this card there or at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the