UFC Freedom 250 is a seven bout card to be held on America’s White House lawn.
This event begins at 5pm SUNDAY 6-15 and features two world title fights (one an interim title) and five other battles. Each bout except one features ranked fighters competing against one another.
This card was created to offer fans seven violence packed fights as each individual matchup features some of the UFC’s most prolific finishers.
Five of the seven freedom fights are lined with a favorite at -300 or above so navigating live underdogs may be somewhat treacherous but that will not stop me.
The Perriera vs. Gane heavyweight battle and Lopes vs. Garcia bout are tightly lined and have the potential to be epic matchups featuring world class athletes looking to earn a 1m dollar bonus offered by the UFC.
Know however that there will be competition for that 1m bonus as every athlete on the card is sure to sell out in order to accrue that bonus.
This week I’ll make brief observations on each of the seven bouts on this slate, and we’ll got from the bottom up.
Diego Lopes -165 vs. Stevie Garcia +145 Featherweight (145lbs.)
In May of 2023 Lopes showed up for a debut fight on short notice against a top three ranked killer in Mosvar Evloev. Lopes battled the world class grappling talent to a decision loss. After than fight Lopes was recognized as a top five featherweight.
Lopes has become a UFC favorite since he took that short notice fight and has exemplified the fact that fighters who take on uncomfortable and risky fights or fights on short notice quickly earn favoritism with the UFC. Lopes is the poster boy for that relationship.
Lopes was given many fight opportunities post Evloev, and he has knocked down all competition save for two losses against current champion Alexander Volkanovski where Lopes was dominated by the champion in one sided fights.
This is a monumental opportunity for Lopes as he is still being repaid for that short notice fight with Evloev. He now earns at the top of his division and with a win here Lopes can maintain his legitimacy as a championship contender at 145lbs.
In Stevie Garcia we have a fighter who trains at Jackson-Winklejohn in Albuquerque. Garcia is going to be privy to holding some physical advantages over Lopes in this bout. He will be the taller fighter holding a three inch reach advantage which in stand up fights delivers advantage.
Now Garcia has not faced the level of competition that Lopes has but Gacia does enter this fight on the momentum of having won his last seven bouts, six via finish and the seventh against Cal Katter via dominant striking. He also arrives rested and ready to fire fresh.
Lopes opened -300 for this fight which was a poor opening number. That price has now moved to Lopes -165 vs. Garcia +145 which is a more practical depiction of how this fight should be priced in my judgement.
This fight is going to be total chaos as both men want to stand, both want to plant their feet and both want to throw power strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees upon each other with the sole intent of rendering the other unconscious.
Key to this fight in my judgement is Lopes high level of fight activity and against elite competition for this will be his fourth fight in fourteen months. He’s prepared for Champion Volkanovski twice (and was drubbed in each) with a bout against Jean Silva placed in between. This is a lot of time spent in the gym with little rest for the weaponry of late.
To take a fight now after the diligence of those three camps then the attrition he undertook in each fight, forces me to believe that Lopes could be just a step off come Sunday.
Lopes has earned favorite status in this fight but Garcia’s size, length, and the fact he enters this fight riding tremendous momentum forces me to believe that somewhere along the line and most likely early, Garcia will be able to find Lopes as Lopes navigates his way inside the pocket to hurl.
Garcia +145
is the release however I’ll remain patient as more price advantage may be coming Garcia’s way as the fight nears. I’ll advise watching this line closely and when it reaches +150 or better….FIRE.
Bo Nickal -365 vs. Kyle Daukaus +300 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Daukaus, a BJJ black belt and a Muay Thai purple belt is a fighter now competing in his second stint in the UFC. This second stint was earned as Daukaus is a capable fighter albeit not one who will ever scratch the top ten of the division in my humble estimation.
2-0 since his return to the UFC Daukaus has been working diligently on his BJJ and wrestling which is timely as he will be in the cage against a world class, elite wrestler this Sunday.
In Bo Nickal, a D1 NCAA champion wrestler who holds a purple belt in BJJ. He is a pedigreed world class talent who arrives with an elite level of wrestling and a history of success in every endeavor he has ventured in when it comes to sports competition.
Nickal’s still raw as a UFC fighter and that was displayed clearly in his fight against Renier de Ritter where he was so fatigued that he was unable to get off the stool for round three.
Needless to say that was a learning experience for Nickal as well a motivational opportunity because the MMA world hurled aggressive displeasure at the wrestler after that performance.
Nickal came back from that embarrassment against RDR and finished Brazilian Rodolpho Viera with a third round head kick in his last fight which provided him this opportunity.
It’s my belief that Daukaus is in this fight to catapult Nickal and his career forward. We know the UFC would like to see Nickal win and they’ve provided a great showcase for him to do just that. The question is…will Daukaus cooperate?
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -150
Strong lean over
Maricio Ruffy -710 vs. Michael Chandler +580 Lightweight mismatch
Michael Chandler is now forty years of age, but he is a world class wrestling talent with a black belt in BJJ to supplement his ultra-aggressive forward pressing power striking offense.
Chandler’s aggression is always on display and often times at the expense of his fight IQ and defense for he fights like a boxer despite the fact that he is an accomplished wrestler.
In this fight, the UFC has Chandler in there for two purposes; One, to be a willing partner to the absolute razor blade that is Mauricio Ruffy and second to allow Ruffy to retire the wily veteran, so the UFC does not have to.
Ruffy, a former fighting nerd now training is Australia is a clairvoyant power striker. His length, his diversity of power striking/kicking and his aggression have established him as a legitimate threat to the top three of the division since he entered the UFC.
This will be a fight that revolves around distance for Chandler absolutely must NOT allow Ruffy to maneuver in it yet the paradox in that is that Chandler must find a way to enter the pocket to either engage in striking or initiate his wrestling.
Both carry high risk against this finisher as this is another example of the UFC looking to catapult a vicious striker up the rankings to create more money fights down the line with other stalwarts in the top five of the division.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -140
Sean O’Malley -350 vs. Aiemann Zahabi +300 Bantamweight (135lbs.)
Zahabi, brother to Firas who owns TriStar Gym in Canada is a fighter with tremendous momentum entering this fight.
A black belt in BJJ and solid wrestling chops provide Zahabi with the tools required to engage opponents while simultaneously wearing them out with his unrelenting pressure.
Since 2021 Zahabi has won seven fights, five via decision so it’s clear his cardio, his wrestling and his cage IQ provide him advantage over many however his striking, while refined is powerless.
In Sean O’Malley we have a fighter that delivers tremendous eyeballs to the UFC, so he is treated with favoritism, care, and in this fight he is gifted with an advantageous matchup as he is taller, longer, younger, and well more skilled than his Canadian counterpart.
O’Malley’s a deft moving striker with flamboyant and diverse striking delivery as well he has been grinding on his BJJ/wrestling for years.
Despite the fact that he is unable to compete in grappling against the likes of the Dvalishvili’s and Yan’s of the division, O’Malley is more than equipped enough to fend off the advances of Zahabi and manipulate this fight into a stand up, distance striking display that clearly favors Suga Sean.
This is a set up fight to thrust O’Mally into another headline position in an upcoming card. Remember fight fans, today’s UFC is about violence and ratings!
The UFC is able to ‘manicure’ results by the way they matchmake, in this one they’re telling us that they yearn for O’Malley (and his drawing power) to continue to win fights, sell tickets and allow the UFC to earn from its promotion of the ‘Suga’ show.
Cyril Gane -1155 vs. Alex Pereira -105 Heavyweight Interim Title
Gane, who is mighty athletic, nimble on the feet and country strong comes into this interim title with a decorated Muay Thai transcript where he retired with a 13-0-0 tally.
Gane has tremendous strike evasion skill however he possesses little to no wrestling or BJJ acumen as we witnessed when Jon Jones rubbed him all over the canvas a few years back.
Gane has not competed since September of last year when he blatantly poked Tom Aspinal in the eye and that fight was stopped in the early first round. Gane and his teammates poking opponents in the eye is not an accident fight fans.
As an aside, poking opponents in the eye is a dynamic advantage in fights. Many fighters and even fight camps (the MMA Factory in Paris, Gane’s gym is the most notorious for employing this tactic) utilize the tactic religiously.
Gane and fellow Factory team member Nassourdine Imavov are experts at the practice, one which I believe is encouraged in camp…especially since the UFC has shown no willingness to offer any deterrent for the action.
Gane’s fighting forte’ is striking and using movement to create angles for his strikes kicks, and of course…..pokes. His athleticism must not be underappreciated as well how he is able to expend energy as a 265 pound athlete.
With Pereira, we have a fighter who the UFC and Dana White yearn to win, for with a victory the UFC principal will try to shove Jon Jones into the closet by proclaiming Alex as the new modern UFC ‘GOAT’ should he step up into this heavyweight challenge and win this interim title.
Periera himself is world class in all aspects of striking, boxing, and kickboxing. He is simply a striking savant. His experience in elite competition in the Kickboxing world trumps Gane’s kickboxing body of work in comprehensive fashion.
Pereira’s kicks are bludgeoning and the power he packs in his strikes, knees and elbows has carried through the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions, but this is now heavyweight and the men here are 265lbs.
Sure, early on the Periera power is bound to be profuse however, how will the size, girth, and athleticism of Gane affect Pereira over rounds and at this new weight class? These are the fundamental questions that must addressed before committing to any side in this fight.
While on the surface it may appear that these two will tussle on the feet I can assure fight fans that if there is any advantage in the grappling/wrestling, that it is Pereira that would own that advantage and in relative strong fashion.
He has been training with Glover Teixeira for better than five years now and while world class wrestling is not something one can master in five years, I can most assuredly state that if this fight finds itself on the floor, then it would be Periera who would hold great advantage over Gane.
On the VSiN ‘By the Books’ program I released two parlays tied to this fight over the course of the last two weeks, they are as follows:
-Yadong -600/Pavlovich -600/Periera -110 +170 2.0u returns 3.40u
-Brendan Allen -195/Gane -112 +185 2.0u returns 3.70u
Through the ability to parlay ahead in fights on DraftKings, VSiN listeners now hold a guaranteed profit in this co main event fight. A fight by the way that I really have no idea how it will go!
Total in this co main event is 2.5Rds over -240
Strong lean over
Ilya Topuria -600 vs. Justin Gaethje +500 Lightweight (155lbs.) Title
Topuria is an anomaly.
The guy is small for this weight class yet his striking power and precision, coupled with his ability to evade strikes is matched only by his preparation and execution in fights.
Nimble footwork helps him maintain excellent defense for Topuria evades damage effectively, but his diversified weaponry make him a threat no matter where a fight transitions. Striking, BJJ, wrestling and evasion of strikes Topuria is dominant at each.
Topuria sports a positive 1.0 significant strike advantage per minute of fight time as well he is near impossible to take down. Meanwhile he realizes an average of two takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time.
Topuria the fighter has devastated current champions in the organization as if they were but MMA neophytes and now he steps into this high profile opportunity. To be a Spaniard entering the US to take on one of its own rugged, worthy and most dangerous red, white, and blue American in Justin Gaethje is a challenge Topuria yearned for despite the fact that he and the organization thought they were setting up a Topuria Paddy Pimlett matchup!.
Topuria will be the much smaller man in the cage Sunday, but he’ll be eight years the younger man also. With that youth comes fleet footedness, strike evasion, and the ability to hit and run.
For Gaethje, we’re talking about a warrior who arrived to the UFC with a world class wrestling ability, yet he competed in fights as if he never practiced wrestling a day in his life. Sure Gaethje employs some aspects of wrestling in his fights, but Gaethje does not come to hug and kiss nor rattle and roll. Gaethje comes to kill or be killed and that’s exactly what’s going to play out here.
The logical fight handicappers will be unable to overcome the vast momentum and the mixed martial arts advantages Topuria possesses.
Others, so very few others, will try to hitch one last ride on the old mule who has delivered profitability in his fights for bettors for close to a decade in this organization.
Yes Gaethje is at the end of his career but there is little way he does not come out and attempt to give his best for himself, his family and as an American representing the USA.
Funny things occur in fights and while the tsunami of money is rolling in on Topuria, I for one will be making some form of modest position on Gaethje Sunday night to slap the smug from this Spaniard.
Remember Ronda Roussey was unbeatable until Holly Holm’ed her and Merab Dvalishvili was the machine until Petr Yan threw a monkey rensch into his machinery so upsets can happen….. will one happen Sunday on the White House Lawn?
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -150
Lean over
Friday afternoon the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop across all podcast platforms and on the GambLou.com webpage.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
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