Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Nashville: Insane in ‘the Train’

This week the UFC takes us to good Ol’ Rocky Top Nashville, Tennessee where a scheduled twelve bout fight card, a large cage, and a room full of tuned up Tennesseans will gather to take in what I believe will be one of the most violent cards of the year.

I say this based on a couple of factors.

First, seven of the twelve scheduled bouts are going to be waged at 170lbs and above where power is abundant and finish rates reflect it.

Second, twelve of the twenty-four athletes on this slate are at least thirty-three years old as well this card features nine fights where there exists a greater than 5-year age gap between competitors.

Fighters competing against one another under a four year or better youth advantage win 59.5% of the time according to the information Reed Kuhn has published in his book Fightnomics.

In these nine bouts Saturday the age difference is not just a year or two…. In the main event there is a 15-year spread, co-main you ask? Fourteen years variance. Those are the most obtuse of the nine matchups but suffice it to say many athletes on this slate enter the cage with numeric advantage.

To date favorites in the UFC stand 65.2% which is on the high end of yearly UFC averages… Let us hope UFC 317’s 9-1-1- result is not reproduced in Nashville for my bankroll cannot take that.

Last week we won with Beniel Dariush as he was simply the better mixed martial artist.

Tallison Teixeira -280 vs. Derrick Lewis +240 Heavyweight main event

Lewis is the all-time knockout king in UFC history.

Now forty years old, Lewis is a rotund athlete with little technical fighting ability. He does possess profuse power in his hands, and he compliments that fight ending power with focused ill intent.

He has competed against the elite of the division for better than a decade and separated the majority of his foes from consciousness because for Lewis, it takes but one Sunday shot to end a fight.

Lewis’s UFC experience, cage IQ and raw street fighting tactics are equaled only by his complete lack of appropriate conditioning for the man is fractionally as effective after six minutes of exertion than before.

Lewis lands the same rate of significant strikes per minute as he accepts, 2.48, and of late his ability to take damage after all these fierce competitions is waning rapidly. Yes, Lewis is chinny.

However, at his best and that is how I believe we see Lewis Saturday, he is an effective finisher. The key for Lewis in this fight will be space for should he be able to work from inside the pocket on the longer taller Brazilian then he stands a great chance of imploding Teixeira with any one of several detonations.

For Tallison Teixeira this will be his sophomore fight in the UFC so disadvantages in experience, foes faced, and adversity overcome cannot compete with what Lewis has experienced.

This Brazilian bomber holds many advantages as he is fifteen years the younger man, he is four inches taller and owns a four-inch reach advantage over Lewis in this bout.

Teixeira brings raw finishing ability applied by a youthful, hulking, aggressive, sometime wild strike hurling twenty-five-year-old, but the kid ends fights.

In his second UFC bout he gets a main event placement, steps well up in class of opponent and fights for the opportunity to earn life-changing money, all of which add complexity to this fight.

Lewis is taking note of it all.

So, in one corner we have a mature, experienced, proud old warrior combatant with natural born power. He is going to take the middle of the cage and in initiate a throw down against a willing, aggressive, young, taller, longer, Brazilian Bomber who will do all he can to unglue Lewis.

There is no give in this fight.

The total in this fight of 1.5 -270 Under is appropriate!

Morgan Charriere 250 vs. Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr +200 Featherweight

WAR

Nate ‘the Train’ is appropriately named. Landwehr is forcefully aggressive in every engagement during his fights. He forges forward with unrelenting will to engage opponents with one single point of focus: to annihilate.

Landwehr now thirty-seven and sporting a lightly negative significant strike differential can struggle with consistency because of the extremely aggressive approach he takes into each battle.

Take one to give one? Landwehr’s surely game.

Landwehr can grapple yes but his aim is to walk opponents down then shut off their lights simply put.

4-2 in his last six bouts, Landwehr enters this fight off a loss but for this war, he competes in front of his hometown which makes Landwehr, a problem for any athlete in any arena, even more dangerous in this spot.

Landwehr’s opponent is perfectly placed to provide the fans a dangerous opponent for their hometown boy.

Charriere is athletic, fleet afoot, able to effectively evade strikes and throws his kicks/strikes/knees and elbows in volume and from every angle imaginable.

Charriere enters this fight in enemy territory off a loss to Nathaniel Wood that was very close and could have easily gone his way. Sporting a negative strike differential, Charriere would do well to maintain spacing against this down bound train because while Charriere’s damage is done with volume striking, distance maintenance and precision placement, the Train’s damage comes in blunt force collision form.

Simply put Charriere will need time to effectively wear Landwehr down with a volume, precision attack while Landwehr’s approach will be to force Charriere into a flat-footed throwdown where Landwehr’s shortcomings of footwork, quickness and cage cutting become muted and his strengths of power striking from the pocket are magnified.

Every fight on this card is designed to deliver violent effects but of the twelve fights slated for Nashville, this one offers the greatest intrigue because of the style each man carries to the cage.

In the end, Charriere will be too fleet afoot, too quick, and athletic for the forceful Train even though Landwehr fights in front of his people.

Charriere -250

We will use Charriere in a parlay

Steve Garcia -120 vs. Calvin Katter -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

This will be another complete blood bath as both men are lethal strikers and they execute their striking similarly, with force, power, grit, and determination.

This fight is foundational for Kattar, a blue belt in BBJ as he has dropped his last four bouts in a row but to world class competent UFC competition.

Katter is tough, aggressive and a forward pressing boxer/striker with power in his hands, a granite jaw but porous defense as evidenced by his negative 2.02 significant strike difference per five minutes of fight time.

Garcia, a southpaw enters with tremendous momentum. A striker as well Garcia has not seen the third round in his last four fights finishing competition that is sound but nowhere near as elite as the athletes Kattar has had to contend with.

So, Kattar enters fight one desperate hombre and Garcia, the lefty arrives on the shirttails of tremendous momentum. Garcia’s height, reach, and length advantages will set him up well in this striking affair. Garcia’s southpaw attack will serve him well against the traditional orthodox boxer Kattar.

Garcia -120

Garcia -120 to Charriere -250 parlay returns 1.57u

This fight is lined 1.5 -175 Over

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning PST. All my final releases may be accessed there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Profitability

College World Series Final: LSU vs. Coastal Carolina

The College World Series final is set and we have what appears to be a David (Coastal Carolina Chanticleer’s) against Goliath (the LSU Tigers).

I believe the energy spent beating Arkansas will affect the Tigers to an extent. Coastal barely celebrated their win against Louisville delivering them to this final series because they expected to be here. They have the arms, the defense and the hitting to give LSU everything they want and more.

Meanwhile LSU will hold advantage with coach Jay Johnson and a veteran team that had to navigate the SEC in order to earn this championship opportunity.

GambLou CWS members are profitable to date and hold LSU +600 future tickets into this final series. Enjoy what I hope will be a three game thriller!

Enjoy the hardball in Omaha, NE!

GambLou

It’s Business!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Profitability

College World Series: The Greatest Show on Dirt

Since 2021 only current SEC teams have won the CWS Championship.

This year there are but two SEC teams, they are the highest ranked teams in the tourney according to Las Vegas odds which are well more aware than any rating service or publication.

There are many nuances to playing in Omaha.

The ballpark is well larger than most college parks, the stadium sits low and south winds whip directly into the teeth of the hitters, making Charles Schwab field a small ball park that often rewards teams that can execute by hitting singles and doubles more than home runs, teams that can field, pitch and steal.

Gorilla ball home run power teams flail in Omaha especially when the wind howls as it does most every summer afternoon.

How about Omaha in General?

It’s a great city. 1m metroplex with friendly people everywhere, great restaurants and here are the tips for those attending.

Best Steak in Omaha is the Whiskey New York at the Drover. Make no mistake about this

Best CWS bar is Barry’ O’s in the Old marker run by an amigo of mine and Barrett’s Barleycorn which willbe home again to LSU so expect that place to be jumping early and often.

Don’t miss the Old Market in Omaha just blocks from the ballpark.

Funniest thing about Rocco’s and the bars by the ballpark is that they wallow year round. Rocco’s ain’t even open all the time but they rake during the CWS.

There’s still time to jump in on the CWS package for 2025. Go to the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this webpage and access the info.

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Atlanta Usman vs. Buckley: Rose expose’d?

The UFC marches through the summer of twenty-five with events lined up for weeks without having to revisit the APEX as the UFC is in the midst of expanding that facility.

From New Jersey they move to Atlanta, GA for Fight Night Usman vs. Buckley, a Welterweight main event. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and the main card at 7pm PT.

Atlanta will provide these combatants with a full house crowd looking to slam suds and view violence.

Seven of the thirteen bouts feature the larger men weighing 170lbs and above, so the UFC has allocated an abundance size and power to this event. They will fight in the large cage which favors more athletic, fleet-footed, nimble fighters as opposed to the engagers who need to close distance, clasp, and wrestle.

This fight card is comprised of US and Canadien athletes with a stray Scot, Frenchman, Peruvian and one or two other foreigners scattered within.

Kamaru Usman +210 vs. Joaquin Buckley -245 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked welterweight Buckley arrives at this fight with great momentum and trajectory.

Fifth ranked welterweight Joaquin Buckley is thirty-one, he is dangerously explosive, driven to compete for a title and he has the benefit of fighting remarkably close to home.

A winner of his last six bouts, Buckley, has not tasted defeat since late 2022.

Buckley is short, compact but profusely powerful with his striking and he hits the octagon with a complete fight arsenal founded on an established wrestling base, forward pressing aggression, and heart.

Usman, on paper, represents a significant step up in pedigree of foe for Buckley but at thirty-eight and having to compete on knee’s that have been MMA active for decades with wrestling prior to that, it’s safe to say that Usman’s now a shell of a fighter now that he was just two to three years ago.

Buckley’s fight game is power based, yet he realizes a +1.09 significant strike differential per five minutes which means there is high output behind that high voltage power. He is active with takedowns averaging just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes and finally Buckley’s takedown defense is 73% which is testimony to his short hard physique and his deep ability to defend a takedown.

Usman, a decorated DII college wrestler and a BJJ black belt needs little introduction. The former champion remains a forceful wrestler, a solid striker, and an accomplished force inside the octagon but in my judgement Usman’s utility inside the top fifteen of this division will be wiped away with a loss in this fight.

He enters after having dropped his last three bouts (two against the timid Leon Edwards and one against the inconsistent Kamzat Chimaev). In that Chimaev fight, Usman looked formidable, he showed his durability, but he was also slow and laboring in a three round decision defeat to the younger faster Russian.

Usman’s mind is as sharp and powerful as ever; however, his body has been tattered from years of world class competition, especially his knee’s.

Usman’s striking remains effective, and his wrestling is sound but his explosion, his ability to move fluently, and his strike defense have all shown signs of waning.

It will be an arduous task for Usman, proud old warrior that he is to remain competitive in this fight with such a massive difference in age, speed, and quickness between these two.

Usman’s knee situation is real, it is tangible, and it mutes his ability to be as effective as he was in the prime of his career.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -130

Rose Namajunas -260 vs. Miranda Maverick +220 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main

Eleventh ranked Maverick, a black belt in BJJ with a formidable wrestling base has earned victory over her last five straight bouts. The level of competition faced in those fights has steadily ascended into this sizable test as she now faces former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.

Namajunas with black belts in Karate and Tae Kwon Do and a brown belt in BJJ surely has the fight arsenal to make her a threat in this division. Rose carries name recognition, she is a former UFC champion and she brings an extremely well-rounded fighting repertoire to face a shorter stockier adversary in Maverick.

Maverick is a southpaw and though she is shorter than Rose she is also five years younger and fighting at her natural weight class where Rose has had to rise into the flyweight division because she is no longer able to make 116 pounds for strawweight and retain any energy.

Rose’s results at 125lbs. have been acceptable as she has been able to defeat Amanda Riibas and journey woman Tracy Cortrez but lost flyweight bouts to both Manion Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield.

While Namajunas has the pedigree and name recognition, I believe this Maverick test will be a difficult one for her because Maverick’s forward wrestling pressure, her aggression and her physicality will force Rose to engage and defend where ideally she wants to dwell in space and snap strikes at her incoming aggressor.

This fight is total 2.5Rds Over -520!

Maverick +220 half unit

I will also release Maverick via decision (lines not out yet) for a half unit and Maverick plus points (lines not yet out) for another half unit.

Three wagers on this bout!

I will update this article once those prices become available to the market.

Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)

Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for this, his third UFC battle after their originally scheduled bout was cancelled (May 17th) due to a Bellato illness (for lack of a better description).

When this fight was cancelled, Bellato was priced -550, now, inside a month later the fight reopened it is lined Bellato -360?

Bellato is a chiseled, heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.

Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted …. rapidly.

Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue for the power striking Brazilian is that on offense he is able but defensively he is flawed. Bellato allows 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition which leave an abundance of room for improvement!

In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev. Submissions are craigs game and striking department he is mundane at best so the opportunity to wear on the big Brazilian to ty to KO him late is remote.

Craig, a large man himself has a body type that falls more under ‘dadbod’ than ‘sculpted’ or ‘chiseled.’ His striking is lacking for mixed martial artists of this level, but it is his grappling/submission ability that has allowed Craig to compete deep into this division and onto this fight Saturday.

Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig early in this fight while these men are standing.

For Craig, should he be able to make it past the first round then ground the Bear sized Brazilian, he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker as Bellato swells up early from his torrid pace as well he is as uncomfortable on the mat as Craig is on the feet!

Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?

I lean to Craig.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 (when this fight was taken down a few weeks ago, this total was 1.5Rds Under -135)

Friday early morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast becomes available at GambLou.com. My final positions can be accessed there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Profitability

College World Series: The Greatest Show on Dirt

Hardball Fans the NCAA College baseball tournament is here.

This weekend sixty-four teams converge on sixteen college campuses to compete for entry into the 2025 College World Series.

Since a boy I have been attending this event and since a teen, wagering on it. I understand the nuances of the Park, the city, the wind and it’s dynamic effect on these games as well the teams, players and fans.

Over the course of the next three weeks a national title will be earned, and I can tell you that there are but eight to twelve teams that will be able to get that accomplished. Which teams are those?

Tap the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this page for details… releases go out Thursday PM the 30th May

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Investment Intel, Profitability

Advantage investing or Action man?

Today’s theme revolves around the discipline to pull the trigger on a bet when the advantage is yours…. DO NOT acquiesce and let the ‘Makers or the talking heads being paid by them talk you into making NFL wagers in June when camps have not even begun yet.

It’s May and we’re entering the dog days of summer investors.

Sportsbooks have posted NFL win totals and week one numbers to entice those who are not disciplined and are itching for action to wager now on any aspect of the NFL.

My word of caution is this.

Betting NFL win totals now is suicide….especially if one invests in over wagers then you simply hate your money.

Is it possible to plinco your way into advantage now?

Sure, but you tie up your money, then run the risk that injury, trade or some other unforeseen act may disrupt the team you have wagered on.  

Betting now means you are hoping… not handicapping.

Due Diligence, Selectivity, Money Management…. The fulcrum of bottom line profit in sports wagering!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Ring that Belal

The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.

This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.

As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.

On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.

So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.

There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.

Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.

Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.

A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.

In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.

What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.

Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.

At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.

Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.

Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.

Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.

Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.

JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.

While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.

The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.

Muhammad -180

This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.

Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200

Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.

Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.

Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.

It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.

Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.

I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.

Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310

Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u

Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)

Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!

Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.

Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.

The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.

I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.

Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

All Circa pricing

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, Uncategorized

Kentucky Derby: Brutha Shue spew’s for Lou

My Brother Shue, a big brother/role model since 1977 University of Arizona days, returns again this year to offer GambLou.com Nag enthusiasts angles on the fastest two minutes in sports, The Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the breakdown Shue (in black ink) sent with his permission to share!

Hey bro – here’s my take, almost final unless one of my nags bail, here we go:

First, there have been two defections, the #4, RODRIGUEZ and the #10, GRANDE have been scratched and BAEZA #21 is in and he will be ridden by Flavian Prat.

The track and weather for Louisville looks to be sloppy, just as it was for the Kentucky Oaks.  We’ll need a hot pace in the Derby so in order for my closers to have a shot.

Attached are my final numbers for the Derby. (Shue included many charts which I did not publish in this column)

My opinion hasn’t changed since the PP draw – I’m still on #17 SANDMAN (6-1), but my fear with him, is that as he comes from almost dead last, and as he circles that final turn 8, 9 paths wide, he’ll be lugging in, as he likes to do, and perhaps get DQ’d a spot or two for interference.

#18 PUBLISHER (30-1) will effort to pass ten or so rivals to jet to the lead, and Steve Asmussen will win his first Kentucky Derby! (Shue’s met Steve Assmussen several times and is a big fan so take that with a grain o salt)

I also like #3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1).  Not a fan of synthetic to dirt, but he has, apparently, taken to the dirt pretty well.  Although never really raced in ‘hot’ company before, just maybe sitting way back, he won’t be noticed and then Machado pushes the button on the final turn and off he goes.  He could surprise for sure.

#8 JOURNALISM (3-1) will be in my exotics.  You just cannot ignore his closing times.  My worry on him is that in his last three races he’s only been in company with four other runners.  And the Derby comes with mucho traffico!  He will stalk the leaders IMO and stay close, hoping to get a smooth trip.

I am also going to include  the #17, SOVERIGNTY.  He is also a deep closer who has an excellent shot to win.

I think the pace will be hot, as in 22 & change if not quicker.  I mean, there are literally 5 nags who like and need the front, the 1, 4, 5, 12 & 20, geez!  No walking the dog up front on Saturday IMO.

For me, I take a cautious approach to trifecta’s on derby day so I’ll use a $1.00 6 nag Tri box for $120.00

3-7-8-14-17-18

Unlikely yet fun…

Thanks Shue, I love ya man

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Des Moines Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Nickal plated nine trigger

Des Moines, IA. hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo event. This slate has twelve scheduled bouts to be held in the large octagon in front of a crowd full of voracious Iowa fight fans.

Besides three regional/local fighters competing on this card, we will also be privileged enough to watch athletes shipping in from Norway, The Netherlands, Wales, and Vietnam to compete in the heartland so getcha popcorn ready!

Last week we earned two units to bring digital results to 10-11, -1.45u to date. Let us keep the momentum flowing into Des Moines!

Cory Sandhagen -455 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +365 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Figueiredo, after having left the flyweight division for the Bantamweight division, is ranked fifth after going 1-1 in two bouts against athletes in the division’s top fifteen.

Fighting professionally since 2012 Figueiredo sports a depth of UFC experience, an aggressive, power based striking acumen and a black belt in BJJ. He is well rounded, durable and with a victory here could elevate himself into title consideration and the stacked division’s top five.

In Sandhagen, however, Figgy has drawn one bad card.

Sandhagen is in his prime at thirty-three years of age and his four-year youth edge coupled with a two-inch reach and six-inch height advantage together provide him great striking benefits. Sandhagen, a man that trains in Denver’s elevation is himself a brown belt in BJJ so together, his size, his fight weaponry and his depth of UFC experience competing against this divisions top five together force me to regard Sandhagen as a legitimate favorite in this bout and a candidate for the next title shot should he defeat Figueiredo.

Sandhagen will rely upon his fluidity of movement, his length and guile to keep the incoming Brazilian slugger in space where the Sandhagen offensive fight arsenal is most effective.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over

Mason Jones -550 vs. Jeremy Stephens +425 Lightweight (155lbs)

Des Moines native Stephens comes back to the UFC to fight in his own back yard for a couple reasons. One, because he will help pack the gym with locals as well, he will do in this fight what he does in all his fights… and that is to provide forward pressing, offensive striking violence.

Stephens at thirty-eight still has the will, the fortitude and the aggression to compete in the world’s largest fighting organization but it’s his fight skills, his ability to withstand a flush fist to the face and his cardio that together make him susceptible to any true young ascending athlete.

In Jones, Stepehen’s gets such an ascending talent. Jones is tough as iron with a granite jaw, he has a well-rounded fight arsenal and packs profuse power in his hands.

On the floor for a roll or on the feet to force his adversary into retreat, Jones, who has been away from the organization to improve his skills (a scary thought) should absolutely pulverize Stephens in this fight.

I believe Jones’ approach will be to ground the midwestern mauler then reign ground and pound upon him in unrelenting fashion.

When the bell for round one rings you best be watching this fight because these men will each look to disintegrate the other.

Total in this fight:   1.5Rds Over -120

Meisha Tate -135 vs. Yana Santos +115 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Santos has had two fights since 2023 after having a child. She is 1-1 in those bouts. She enters this fight understanding that the Meisha Tate name can propel her into the divisions top fifteen with a win or find her free falling down the lady’s bantamweight rankings should she be defeated.

Santos has been the more active athlete though each of these ladies enters off considerable time off. For Tate however, her wrestling acumen coupled with her championship pedigree force me to regard the opening price on this fight of a pick-em as flawed.

Currently Tate stands -135 and it is my handicap that her aggressive wrestling and forward pressing attack will be enough to quell the journeyman-like skills possessed by Santos.

The total in this pillow fight is lined 2.5Rds over -400 so a decision seems more than likely here.

Tate via decision is a strong consideration here but props are not yet released so we will use…

Tate -135

1u to return .74u

Friday at midday PT my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off four straight winning weeks, so the time is now to jump in for investment advice.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, Profitability

2025 Stanley Cup Tournament: The greatest tournament in Sport

The Stanley Cup Playoff Tournament, ‘Puck Passion Season’ begins Saturday April 19th.

Each NHL Playoff season I utilize specific data lifted from the set of all regular season games to provide the basis for my NHL Playoff releases.

This year I am highly motivated to derive profit from these playoffs as last year was the first in some twenty years that I did not derive profit from this most dynamic bracketed tournament.

Those wishing to see last year’s result need only tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage to view as well I have previous years data available for any interested parties…

I would love to forward 2023 results for that was a banner Puck Passion year.

The ‘NHL” tab at the top of this webpage is the key.

It navigates you to and through the registration process. Direct questions to Lou@GambLou.com.

I’ll be posting all Cup, Series and game to game wagers through this webpage so ensure you are signed up and have access by Saturday April 19th when my initial releases will be available (perhaps sooner).

Oh Canada!