NCAA College World Series: The Greatest Show on Dirt

Omaha’s College World Series, the Greatest Show on Dirt

Initial Future releases available Tuesday May 27th

Here is my full article submitted to VSiN this AM:

The 64 teams are bracketed and will follow the same bracket format (and each team’s placement within said bracket) all the way to and through Omaha.
Understanding each team’s strengths and weaknesses is a big part of the CWS handicap but also understanding how each team sits in proximity to other top 20 competitors is foundational to tourney success. An efficient pass into Omaha always helps!
There are 11 SEC teams in the field of 64 and in that league steel sharpens steel…
SEC has 5 teams in the top 7 D1 rankings which were used to seed this tourney.
SEC teams will for the most part thrive vs. most non SEC competition and they are spaced such that SEC will not have to play vs. another SEC team in 5 of the potential 8 Super Regional best of three series which is quite favorable to SEC as a league.
The ACC has 8 teams in the field of 64 which is indicative of the ACC’s rise this year in hardball.
The ACC has 5 teams in the top 16 which were used to seed this Tourney.
I add a premium to veteran teams who made it to the Regionals, Super Regionals last year and pay Extra Attention to any teams that competed in Omaha last year for often they’re wide eyed fulfilling dreams that first year then if they can make it back they’re all business.
Teams in this year’s field that were in Omaha last year: Florida, LSU and Tennessee in the SEC and Virginia and Wake in the ACC Neither Oral Roberts, Stanford or TCU (the other 3 Omaha 2023 teams made the field of 64.
I could envision the SEC landing up to 6 teams this year in Omaha but more than likely 4 or 5 teams. I can see the ACC having success this year also and would not be surprised to see them land 2-3 teams.
After SEC and ACC there’s little room for all the other squads competing in this years tourney of 64…any making it to Omaha will have to be top caliber clubs: Oregon St. East Carolina, Oklahoma and Arizona to name a few.
Arizona is in the most competitive regional in my opinion and I look for Dallas Baptist, a veteran team that made the Regionals
Bama, Duke, S.Carolina, S. Miss and Indiana St. all made it to the Super’s last year and were eliminated…look for them to be potentially live this year.

Omaha’s College World Series….The Greatest Show on Dirt!

UFC FN St. Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento: Nursultan of Swing

From South America to St. Louis, Mo. we track for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.

This fight slate is comprised of thirteen scheduled bouts to be competed in the larger thirty-foot octagon with participants arriving from thirteen differing countries.

Six of the thirteen bouts feature athletes 170lbs or greater.

Finish rates in three round fights comprised of fighters weighing 170lbs and above are 58.3%, so we may witness violent finishes on this card, at least that is the hope!

Last week Alexandre Pantoja -185 earned a close decision victory over Steve Erceg as well my release of big dog Anthony Smith +435 won via first round submission. What was not anticipated was how efficiently Smith would dispose of Vitor Petrino his Brazilian foe as I advised the over 1.5 Rounds. Smith disposed of Petrino some two minutes into the fight.

Digital profit for 2024 now stands 12-8 +7.73 after last week’s success. The task this week is to keep momentum rolling as we search for profitability in this week’s event.

Derrick Lewis -145 vs. Rodrigo Nascimento +125 heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Brazilian mixed martial artist Nascimento is the fifteenth ranked athlete in the division. The thirty-one-year-old is a blue belt in BJJ and overall, a well-rounded grappler/striker who steps up in level of competition for this his first five round main event.

Derrick Lewis is now thirty-nine and ranked twelfth in the division. Lewis is not a mixed martial artist rather he is a behemoth of a man who stalks opponents down in order to club them into unconsciousness with his singularly dimensioned one strike KO power.

Lewis is short on footwork, take down defense and stamina though early in fights he displays athleticism and explosion though the limit for his explosiveness is around four minutes, after that Lewis is a telegraphing headhunter.

At this stage of his career, when Lewis fights, he’s calculating how best to expend his precious energy as his one way to earn victory is to touch the opponent on the teeth. With one detonation Lewis can put adversaries to sleep with one telegraphed connection.

That is Lewis’ plan of attack in any fight.

Nascimento’s last three bouts have all gone to decision so he can effectively compete for fifteen minutes, and it must be his approach to take Lewis past the first five minutes to burden the ‘Black Beast,’ force him to tire and therefore make any takedown attempt that much easier to execute.

The issue for Nascimento may be his chin. Is his sole loss earlier in his career to journeyman Chris Daukaus who is no longer in the organization, Nascimento was knocked out and Daukaus has fractions of the speed and power that Lewis holds.

Should Nascimento who opened a pick-em against Lewis be ‘chinny’ as that fight against Daukaus indicated then it is fair to say that he is in real danger against a profuse pounder like Lewis.

The total in this fight is lines 1.5 Under -145 which is concerning if one is trying to make a case for the Brazilian traveling to the ‘show me state’ to compete against a pure knockout threat like Lewis.

Pass

Joaquin Buckley -170 vs. Nursultan Ruziboev +145 Welterweight (170lbs.) co main event

We last saw eleventh ranked Buckley 18-6 overwhelm top fifteen ranked Vicente Luque with his power striking in New York March 30th. That display put Buckley in the rankings as well put the division on notice that this man is a natural born finisher.

Buckley rarely employs a wrestling base developed in high school as his vicious fighting style was groomed in the streets of East St. Louis.

Besides fighting in his home city, Buckley totes momentum into this fight and he is exuding great confidence. Confidence is one weapon UFC fighters often boomerang into dynamic success.

Ruziboev, 34-8-2 enters this fight with vast experience though there are legitimate questions surrounding the authenticity of his record as well the caliber of athletes he’s faced.

Fighting out of the Renzo Gracie camp in Philly which is known for its cultivation and refining of wrestling/grappling based talent, Ruziboev enters this fight off an impressive KO finish of the modestly talented Sedriques Dumas which he accomplished March 30th on the same card as his opponent Buckley.

Ruziboev will hold seven inches of height supremacy and another four inches of leg reach besides his vast advantage grappling.

To date, we have not witnessed Ruziboev tussle against pedigreed UFC talent nor have we watched him have to endure any form or real trouble. That changes in this fight.

Once this scrap starts Ruziboev will look to distance himself strategically from the aggressive keg of TNT that is Buckley. Buckley will be impatient in his attempt to gain inside access and detonate hooks, crosses, elbows, and kicks on the tall man from Uzbekistan.

Ruziboev has everything to gain in this most intriguing battle. He must weather the furious first five minutes of this fight then find a way to clasp ahold of and press the explosive Buckley against the fence then onto the floor.

Then, after Buckley’s explosiveness is usurped by battle (that is the hope anyway) the fight could well turn to the towering, but well-structured grappler Ruziboev who uses a grinding methodology as opposed to immediate and sudden impact.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angelo Dundee used to chime and I regard this fight as exhibit ‘A’ for that quote.

Buckley opened -150 for this fight and his price has risen steadily early in the week.

The total in this fight is 1.5 over -130 which indicates potential success for the Uzbeki grappler as I do see this fight eclipsing that total.

I am back to an underdog release this week.

Ruziboev +145

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my releases for this fight card will drop Friday mid-day Pacific time. Look for it at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

2024 Kentucky Derby: Releases by Brutha Shue

Horse Players

Welcome to the GambLou.com Kentucky Derby breakdown. My college cohort Shue from New Orleans is kind enough to take the time to list his derby releases for our perusal. Shue’s been white hot leading up to the Derby and what he says is what I’ll be betting… enjoy and Good Luck! 

OK my brother, here we go:

#2 SIERRA LEONE (3-1) will win – no doubt about it.  Rain or shine – and I actually like him more in mud!  Yeah, his fastest closing time(s) was on a muddy track in the Remson and then next fastest was in the slop for the Risen Star!  Yes, he is one tough muddah!  I also like his Beyer speed fig progressions: 71-91-95-98.  No regression at all!  A must have to win the KD IMO.

#4 CATCHING FREEDOM (8-1) is the only closest nag I can see getting there.  Excellent closing times in most, if not all of his races.  Another one with steady Beyer speed fig progressions: 72-77-87-87-97.  But he is also is a deep, deep closer as is Sierra, along with my next pick…

#7 HONOR MARIE (20-1)I can see making a run at all of them.   Another deep closer with some of the fastest final 1/4’s, especially in the LAD when he ran just a half tick behind CF at 1-3/16 mind you.  His only Beyer fig regression, (71-81-92-80-96), was in the slop in the Risen Star – so his 5th place finish is excused.  He just ain’t no muddah!  But boy oh boy, I really like him to pop in the KD if on a dry track.  20-1ish??  I’ll take that!  But as of this writing, Twinspires.com has him at 12-1 currently.  Now…BEWARE, should the track somehow become “muddy” Friday evening, you must toss him and save your $ – he does not like the mud.  So you’ll have to wait until the final to see how they rate the track.

My Outlier:

#6 JUST STEEL (20-1); well, this is the nag I can see mucking up the exotics.  Will probably stalk the leaders and perhaps, could overtake, or at least hold on for a 3rd place finish?  D Wayne might just have his nag ready to pop.  And he is the most experienced horse in the race, along with West Saratoga with 10 races each.  So why not!

The Weather:

As of this writing, it looks like some rain Thursday night, on into Friday and, off and on through Saturday – but I think the track could be fast by post time, 6pm-ish CST Saturday.  But if the track is wet, muddy or sloppy, Sierra Leone will absolutely win – with Catching Freedom running just a tick behind him.

Analysis:

Look for Track Phantom, Fierceness, Just A Touch and Dornoch to hustle for the lead right away.  Yet, Fierceness, IMO, will probably stalk once Track Phantom is all the way in front.  I think Just Steel will effort to stalk as well.  Meantime, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie will trail throughout, bringing up the rear, as is their usual.  And my hope is these three will swing 6,7,8 wide on the final turn and start reeling in the 15+ rivals ahead of them.  Need a fast opening ¼…like 22-ish to help my closers.

 Will fade the Japanese horses, T O Password and Forever Young because I have no stats to run on them.  I have race replays only.  But Forever Young would be the only one to be a threat.  And the Japanese are getting very, very close to winning – I just hope this is not their year.

 No FIERCENESS (5-2) for me. Too inconsistent for my liking.  I think once he starts getting bounced around heading to that first turn, he might just shut down.  And I am not interested in putting any $ on a heavy fav with that possibility – no value here.  I also think he ran his best race in the Florida Derby.  He ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure and I do not think there is an upside to that – meaning he will regress IMO.  His figs are 95-59-105-84-110.  Yet on the other hand, if he is this monster horse, he could go gate to wire if fully unleashed and the, now 16 hole, could help him avoid getting jostled around.  But I am still going to toss him.

Thank You Shue for your time and effort!