Horse Players
Welcome to the GambLou.com Kentucky Derby breakdown. My college cohort Shue from New Orleans is kind enough to take the time to list his derby releases for our perusal. Shue’s been white hot leading up to the Derby and what he says is what I’ll be betting… enjoy and Good Luck!
OK my brother, here we go:
#2 SIERRA LEONE (3-1) will win – no doubt about it. Rain or shine – and I actually like him more in mud! Yeah, his fastest closing time(s) was on a muddy track in the Remson and then next fastest was in the slop for the Risen Star! Yes, he is one tough muddah! I also like his Beyer speed fig progressions: 71-91-95-98. No regression at all! A must have to win the KD IMO.
#4 CATCHING FREEDOM (8-1) is the only closest nag I can see getting there. Excellent closing times in most, if not all of his races. Another one with steady Beyer speed fig progressions: 72-77-87-87-97. But he is also is a deep, deep closer as is Sierra, along with my next pick…
#7 HONOR MARIE (20-1)I can see making a run at all of them. Another deep closer with some of the fastest final 1/4’s, especially in the LAD when he ran just a half tick behind CF at 1-3/16 mind you. His only Beyer fig regression, (71-81-92-80-96), was in the slop in the Risen Star – so his 5th place finish is excused. He just ain’t no muddah! But boy oh boy, I really like him to pop in the KD if on a dry track. 20-1ish?? I’ll take that! But as of this writing, Twinspires.com has him at 12-1 currently. Now…BEWARE, should the track somehow become “muddy” Friday evening, you must toss him and save your $ – he does not like the mud. So you’ll have to wait until the final to see how they rate the track.
My Outlier:
#6 JUST STEEL (20-1); well, this is the nag I can see mucking up the exotics. Will probably stalk the leaders and perhaps, could overtake, or at least hold on for a 3rd place finish? D Wayne might just have his nag ready to pop. And he is the most experienced horse in the race, along with West Saratoga with 10 races each. So why not!
The Weather:
As of this writing, it looks like some rain Thursday night, on into Friday and, off and on through Saturday – but I think the track could be fast by post time, 6pm-ish CST Saturday. But if the track is wet, muddy or sloppy, Sierra Leone will absolutely win – with Catching Freedom running just a tick behind him.
Analysis:
Look for Track Phantom, Fierceness, Just A Touch and Dornoch to hustle for the lead right away. Yet, Fierceness, IMO, will probably stalk once Track Phantom is all the way in front. I think Just Steel will effort to stalk as well. Meantime, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Honor Marie will trail throughout, bringing up the rear, as is their usual. And my hope is these three will swing 6,7,8 wide on the final turn and start reeling in the 15+ rivals ahead of them. Need a fast opening ¼…like 22-ish to help my closers.
Will fade the Japanese horses, T O Password and Forever Young because I have no stats to run on them. I have race replays only. But Forever Young would be the only one to be a threat. And the Japanese are getting very, very close to winning – I just hope this is not their year.
No FIERCENESS (5-2) for me. Too inconsistent for my liking. I think once he starts getting bounced around heading to that first turn, he might just shut down. And I am not interested in putting any $ on a heavy fav with that possibility – no value here. I also think he ran his best race in the Florida Derby. He ran a 110 Beyer Speed Figure and I do not think there is an upside to that – meaning he will regress IMO. His figs are 95-59-105-84-110. Yet on the other hand, if he is this monster horse, he could go gate to wire if fully unleashed and the, now 16 hole, could help him avoid getting jostled around. But I am still going to toss him.
Thank You Shue for your time and effort!