This week’s UFC fight card will take place in London, England. The card is scheduled for fourteen bouts nine of which pit English athletes against fighters travelling into London for their competition which will clearly benefit the local English combatants.

Fighters weighing 170lbs. and above will compete in six of the fourteen fights as well there are three fights where an age difference is eleven years, a certain advantage for the younger athlete.

The large thirty-foot cage will be in use, and the normal raucous London fight crowd will be on hand to cheer for their local athletes.

Last week favorites once again marched to a 13-1 result pushing them thus far in 2026 to 67-20 or 77%. Favorites are winning at a historic rate, and the question is whether to keep searching for mangy mutts or to succumb and start chasing chalk because after all, a stubborn approach is often a losing approach!

Last week this column split on two one-unit releases but lost a half unit position on the main event bet of Josh Emmett +430 who was hardly competitive in his loss to Kevin Vallejos.

Time to earn!

Movsar Evloev -220 vs. Lerone Murphy +190 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Evloev is your prototypical Russian vice grip wrestler. A master of sports in Greco-Roman wrestling Evloev is immensely strong, doggedly determined, and able to expend immense amounts of energy endlessly.

Evloev’s been at the pinnacle of his division for years, but he has a difficult time finding fights for fellow featherweights duck him because of his unrelenting pressure wrestling.

The UFC is no real fan of Evloev either for his way of fighting is unlike the manner the UFC wishes to endorse for in this new arrangement with Paramount productions, most parties are yearning for blood, violence, and knockouts. Leg humping, opponent control from top position and grappling prowess are all aspects of the fight game the UFC is willing to turn away from.

Evloev 19-0 professionally has been in the UFC for seven years now. He’s realized an 11-0 record however each of his wins have come via decision. Evloev’s striking is in development for he utilizes it only insofar as to create the opportunity to clasp onto any opponent, drag them to the floor then begin control time.

Evloev is the kind of mixed martial artist that is being easily overlooked by the UFC when it comes to exposure, support, and investment.

In Lerone Murphy we have an English fighter who has created great momentum for himself in recent bouts. A purple belt in BJJ, Murphy’s fight aptitude is based in his athleticism for he played soccer prior to a knee injury that forced him into the world of boxing then eventually MMA.

Murphy’s 9-0-1 in the UFC. His first ever UFC battle was against Russian athlete Zubaira Tukhugov, a forceful wrestler/striker. That bout ended in a draw. Since then Murphy has competed against an array of talented mixed martial artists but he has not competed against anyone with Tukhugov’s wrestling prowess until this Saturday when he enters the cage with this prototype of a wrestler Evloev.

Physically Murphy has a three-inch height advantage in this battle as well he’ll sport a slight reach advantage so while this fight remains on the feet I look for Murphy’s athleticism, movement, and diversity of attack to control Evloev until which time the Russian clasps ahold of the Englishman.

This fight comes down to Evloev’s offensive wrestling and Murphy’s ability to defend it. Evloev excels in the tumultuous grind where he can control most any featherweight opponent, reign damage upon them from top position while simultaneously draining them of their energy as well their will to win.

Evloev is an authentic world class mixed martial artist who is being to an extent shelved by the UFC because of his manner of fighting.

Murphy is the style of fighter the UFC wants to promote and there’s little doubt that this fight happening in London is no mistake for the organization yearns for violent striking battles and fights that make crowds howl.

They’re giving Murphy his chance to step over Evloev in the rankings as well do their dirty work by having Evloev be defeated thus knocking him down in the rankings.

Unfortunately for this main event, Evloev, who has earned this position by defeating everyone the UFC has set before him will squelch Murphy’s ability to remain in striking distance and sooner than later in this fight ground hm for what is liable to be a twenty-five-minute roll on the canvas.

This fight may be a bit lackluster to blood thirsty fight fans wishing for a barrage of striking action however those MMA fans looking for a tremendous clash of styles will appreciate Evloev’s systematic dismantling of Murphy via his unrelenting forward pressure, his unending cardio, and his basic lock down wrestling.

Boring? Perhaps but masterful certainly!

Evloev -220 1u

Evloev -120 via decision makes a ton of sense also as he is 9-0 in the UFC all decisions.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -270

Luke Riley -250 vs. Michael Aswell +210 featherweight (145lbs.) co main

Aswell ships in from Texas. He is a rough and tumble brawler who is tough, aggressive and swings wide and with intent.

Riley is a young up and comer from England and while fellow Englishman Nathanial Wood is well more deserving of this co main event slot, Riley gets the shine because of his youth, power, aggression and finishing ability.

The UFC believes they have a future star in Riley, and this fight may goi a long way in proving that for Riley, Aswell the English crowd and we fight enthusiasts!

Riley -250 1u

Riley +100 via finish is also a strong consideration.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -165

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UFC Las Vegas 114 Emmett vs. Vallejos will be held at the Meta APEX facility this Saturday afternoon. The card offers fight fans fourteen scheduled battles in the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon and in front of a quaint APEX crowd.

Four of the fights are comprised of fighters weighing 170lbs. or greater which we track as finish rates for fighters weighing 170lbs. and above are greater than those competing at 155lbs. and lower.

Only ten of twenty-eight athletes are from the US which means many of the athletes competing Saturday travel into Las Vegas from outside the U.S.

In six matchups a domestic fighter has the advantage of competing against a fighter that has had to ship into the States from outside the country. That spells advantage for the domestic athlete.

Favorites continue their torrid 74% rate of winning after going 8-4 in last week’s UFC 236.

My release last week of Max Holloway was never in play as he was dominated by the grappling of Charles Oliveira from the opening bell. That was a big miss, so I’ll react by trying to get back into the win column with this week’s release.

Kevin Vallejos -590 vs. Josh Emmett +460 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Vallejos is three fights deep into his UFC tenure and they serve him up a grizzled veteran in Josh Emmett.

Vallejos arrives to this fight a switch stanched fighter with tremendous quickness, speed, and power. The Argentinian athlete will be stepping up in class of opponent aggressively for this his fourth UFC battle.

Vallejos is a forward pressing, aggressive striker who has power emanating from every limb. He is fast, adroit, and finitely focused on engaging opponents immediately for the wide stanched throwdown that he has built his reputation on.

Of Vallejos’ seventeen professional victories he has scored finishes in eleven of them. His sole loss was to fighting nerd superstar Jean Silva a fight he took the barking Silva to decision on. There is great respect in that decision loss to Silva who is one of the bottom-line finishers in the whole of the UFC.

In Josh Emmett we have a profusely powerful fighter who is uber aggressive in walking down opponents in order to plant a wide stance then hurl power hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows with the intent on maiming his adversary then finishing them off in violent fashion.

Emmett’s got twenty-five professional bouts and nineteen wins. He has finished opponents in nine of his nineteen victories but one must review his body of work to understand that Emmett has been in with the elite of the division now for almost a decade.

At forty-one, Emmett is on the downside of his career as evidenced by the fact that since 2023 Emmett’s dropped four of five fights with the sole victory being against Bryce Mitchell in a KO that will live in infamy.

The foundational aspect to this fight is age for Vallejos is twenty-four and Emmett is forty-one!

Vallejos’ youth advantage in this fight is such that it compensates for the vast advantage that Emmett holds in experience and level of competition faced but not so far as to make Vallejos the obtusely priced favorite that he is currently.

This fight is designed to be a changing of the guards fight. The UFC wants younger hungry athletes to do their work of retiring the older set of fighters whose compensation is situated well above the average athlete on the roster.

While Vallejos should be given the title of favorite in this fight, his price is inflated despite advantages that revolve around his youth, speed, and violent finishing ability.

In this battle Vallejos must be respectful of Emmett’s power, might, and will for Emmett’s going to fight like a mother pitbull protecting her young while backed into the corner of the alley.

This is one dangerous spot for Kevin Vallejos especially at a price I handicap to be double what it should be…..

Emmett +460 .50u

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Pick-em

Jose Delgato -300 vs. Andre Fili +265 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Andre ‘touchy’ Fili is an American mixed martial artist who has accrued a 13-11 record fighting with the UFC since 2013.

Fili’s upbringing and home life was rough, at an early age he found the professional’s at Team Alpha Male who took Fili in, then transitioned him from a frustrated individual from a broken home to a successful, proud mixed martial arts athlete over the course of some fifteen plus years.

Physically Fili is long and tall, and he does possess great cardio which allows him to win fights from attrition often outlasting opponents on his way to decision. Well versed as a fighter but not overly powerful or deft afoot any longer, Fili resorts now to planting and throwing.

Agility, speed, and precision are not terms often used to describe thirty-five-year-old featherweight fighters as Fili is, but he is crafty, beguiling and is able to lure the younger more inexperienced fighter into the pocket where Fili may often hold advantage.

In Jose Delgato we have a fighter arriving to the APEX off his first UFC defeat. That loss to Nathaniel Wood in his most recent fight saw sixteen of eighteen press professionals sitting cage side score that fight for Delgato despite the fact that I believe the decision was a correct one.

From every angle of this matchup, it appears that Delgato is being gifted a welcome back fight. He is taller than Fili despite having a one-inch reach DIS-advantage, but he is also twenty-seven and eight years younger than Fili.

Delgato’s speed, his deft footwork, natural power, and his focus coming off that loss together force me to believe that this is a terrible spot for a thirty-five-year-old athlete in Fili.

Delgado -300

Fight props are not yet released however I will make this release now and accept whatever the price is once it is published:

Delgato KO/Sub or DQ

Price to be determined once released….1u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -185

Vitor Petrino -250 vs. Steve ‘Concrete’ Asplund +200 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

This fight is the epitome of ‘Styles make fights’ but also of ‘don’t judge the book by the cover’!

In newly turned heavyweight, Brazilian Vitor Petrino, we have a human specimen that looks chiseled out of marble. Petrino is musclebound and versed in Sanda and Chinese boxing.

He is not particularly quick, fast nor light on his feet, despite the fact that he spent time at the light heavyweight division and in fact it is his muscular frame and his body mass that after a round of frenetic competition can sometimes sap him of his energy.

This move to heavyweight has seen Petrino beat two journeymen lower-level athletes in a division where talent is lacking throughout.

Steven ‘Concrete’ Asplund is a fighter from Minesota who has a story quite compelling. Once over 500lbs Asplund’s skin hangs off his frame and he looks quite opposite of Petrino.

Where Petrino has trained in the martial arts, Asplund comes from the street, and his fighting style reflects it. He is a huge man; he has unusual athleticism but more than any physical trait what this Asplund has is a mean streak a mile wide and a belief deep down that he can do anything he sets his mind to.

In a coming out party I believe Asplund weathers a furious first round then in rounds two and beyond takes this fight from Petrino.

Asplund +200 1u

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -175

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T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV. hosts this week’s UFC 326 Holloway vs. Oliveira for Holloway’s ‘BMF’ championship belt.

The event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which will be held at the larger weight classes of welterweight (170lbs.) and above which by the numbers means higher finish rates. The UFC has doubled the amount of their fighter bonuses to encourage exciting battles and dynamic finishes which thus far this year seems to be working.

There are four fights where there exits an age gap of six years or greater. Six years or more equates to at least a 62% rate of winning for the younger fighter in any particular battle.

Eleven of the twenty-six athletes on this fight card are from the USA. Three fights feature a U.S. athlete vs. another U.S. fighter which leaves five fights where an American is able to compete in Las Vegas against an opponent that must travel from outside the country to fight. Advantage goes to those five US athletes!

Fight fans will recognize many of the combatants on this fight slate as opposed to last week’s fight card that was populated with obscure relatively unknown talent.

Favorites continue to trample underdogs in 2026 as chalk is realizing a 75.4% result through February. Let’s trust that an eventual resurgence of underdogs does arise before the year gets much more mature.

Last week David Martinez -250 earned this column a unit of profit. Let’s reinvest that momentum into this stacked UFC 326 fight card!

Max Holloway -215 vs. Charles Oliveira +185 BMF Title (155lbs.)

This is a rematch of a fight, or shall I say a near fight that occurred in 2015 when Oliveira was thirteen fights into his UFC stint. Then much more of a submission specialist competing at the 145lb. featherweight division, Oliveira was less well rounded than he is today as well he carried the heavy burden of a reputation that revolved around his lack of intestinal fortitude.

Yes, then handicappers such as I questioned Oliveira’s ability to dig down deep and fight nasty, with determination especially when the fight got messy.

Unfortunately, that fight accentuated his reputation for being an athlete with a lack of fortitude as a mysterious aliment hit Oliveira early causing him to stop competing 1:36 into round one of that main event.

Oliveira’s ailment in that fight is a mystery to this day. Tapology cites the reason for the stoppage as a ‘shoulder or neck’ injury while others have maintained it was an esophageal issue/situation.

Whatever the reason, the facts are that Holloway was declared the winner and Oliveira had to spend years toiling in his attempt to remove the label of ‘quitter’ that he had earned based on the results of that fight and previous ones.

Flash forward to this week and we see a vastly different version of Oliveira. He is now a full grown lightweight (155lbs.) man. He’s incorporated highly effective striking weaponry to compliment his world class BJJ and his wrestling is solid.

Since that embarrassment against Holloway, Oliveira has realized a 17-6 record in the UFC with legitimate victories over athletes like Chandler, Gamrot, Poirier and Gaethje.

Now the third ranked lightweight in the division Oliveira marches into this matchup a much different fighter, competitor, and man than he was when these two first tangled in that odd 2015 main event.

Current BMF title holder Max Holloway, arguably the GOAT of the featherweight division (if there was no Alexander Volkanovski) earned the BMF belt in spectacular fashion in 2024 when he famously pointed to the center of the cage in his epic battle against lightweight Justin Gaethje, then knocked him face first and senseless to the canvas with one second remaining in that fight.

To the untrained eye, Holloway may appear to be less ‘well rounded’ than Oliveira but that is actually not the case.
Holloway’s incorporation of Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling and BJJ together make him a complete threat to anyone in the division and a dynamic finishing force inside the octagon.

Physically these two former featherweights now competing at lightweight are ultra dangerous as they’ve each grown into their 155-pound bodies and have a string of defeated opponents in their wake leading up to this rematch.

Once the bell rings we’ll see Oliveira attempt to press forward aggressively to exchange with Holloway but only long enough to try to clasp ahold of him then make this a fight ‘in a phone booth’ for Oliveira requires a fight waged from close quarters in order to be able to transition to and from grappling and striking.

Oliveira’s been wobbled and dropped in several previous fights, his strike defense is such that he takes a couple to dish a couple and in this matchup that must be minimized for standing too long against Holloway will have a disastrous result.

For Holloway, the blueprint is footwork first, because maintaining appropriate striking/kicking distance will be paramount for his success in this fight which is not to say that he can’t or won’t grapple with Charles.

Holloway’s BJJ is developed and while not as refined as Oliveira’s it is sound enough to be able to allow him to compete with Oliveira long enough to find his way back to his feet where his advantage is greatest.

Both of these men have faced the elite of the same two divisions for well over a decade now. Each man has earned signature wins and have experienced emotionally draining losses.

Each of these men has held a title and defended it yet it is this bit of unfinished business that drives both men as well the UFC and it’s fans into understanding that of all the BMF fights to date, this will be the most extreme, the most epic and the most competitive fight to date.

At the end of the day my handicap is that Holloway will be able to thwart the early grappling charges of Oliveira, he’ll be able to keep this fight standing and at distance which will allow him to in to bludgeon the Brazilian with a constant barrage of jabs, leg kicks, combinations and slicing elbows/knees.

Oliveira has battled to overcome the reputation of being mentally frail, but he has not been in the cage against THIS 2026 Max Holloway and on Saturday night it seems only a matter of time before Holloway’s diversity of movement, his striking acumen and his defensive aptitude allow him to systematically disassemble Oliveira over the course of this twenty-five-minute fight.

Holloway -215 circa

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -135.

I have also seen some 2.5 Rds. Over -160 totals in the marketplace which creates potential arbitrage betting opportunities.  Those considering the ‘Fight does not go to decision’ can make that wager (when those lines are opened up) then couple it with the over 2.5 Rds. creating a 12:30 minute middle potential while mitigating damage because one wager will win and the other will not unless they both realize profitability.

I’ll bet the ‘Over 2.5’ and the ‘fight does not go to decision’ when that prop comes out and make a middle attempt.

Ciao Borralho -260 vs. Renier de Ritter +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event

We last saw eighth ranked middleweight de Ritter quit on the stool between the fourth and fifth round in his fight against fourth ranked Brendan Allen last October in France.

De Ritter, 4-1 in the UFC had looked stellar in his three wins leading up to the Allen debacle but now must return to the cage against a more sound and competent middleweight threat in Borralho in order to make amends.

What de Ritter does have is an absolute world class grappling acumen. He is a black belt in BJJ as well in Judo and throughout most of his career RDR competed at the 205-pound weight class.

For UFC competition RDR competes at 185 lbs. which provides him great advantage for he is always the much larger man in the cage against UFC middleweights. With that advantage, however, comes risk and said risk is found in the fact that in order to make that aggressive weight cut to 185 lbs. RDR can compromise his fighting output by warring with the weight cut previous to the fight.

This is what transpired in the Brendan Allen fight as RDR eventually ran out of gas then immediately ran out of heart.

So the question for this fight is how will RDR address the weight in the weeks and days leading up to a fight with an adversary well more equipped and dangerous than Allen?

This matchup is a three-round fight, so RDR gets a reprieve as he has battled in five round fights in his last two UFC appearances, one a victory over former champion Robert Whittaker then the dud he threw up against Allen.

Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho is RDR’s opponent Saturday. He enters this showdown with confidence surging despite arriving to this fight off a loss to Nassourdine Imavov in his last bout.

Borralho, a leader of the ‘Fighting Nerds’ fight team arrives to this showdown with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking a brown belt as well in judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite.

Borralho’s combination of speed, power, fight weaponry, mental toughness, and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.

Once this fight begins we’ll see RDR immediately try to use his massive body structure/frame to envelope Borralho, clinch him up, push him against the fence then eventually take him to the mat where Borralho’s grappling skill, world class in nature will be forced into dealing with a man every bit as equipped in BJJ as he but one that sports a massive size advantage.

While these two are similar in the aptitude of their grappling, they are much different for only one man possesses the ability to strike and injure and that’s the Brazilian.

RDR possesses pedestrian striking, there is little speed, crispness or power in his strikes and he rarely throws in numbers as his stand up is but a foil to set up him grappling.

RDR is a one trick UFC pony.

Borralho will own a substantial striking advantage even though he can be a bit telegraphing and wide with his strikes in the heat of battle. The more complete mixed martial arts weaponry belongs to Borralho while the size, strength, and grappling advantage side with RDR.

In a three round battle these two are seemingly well matched and it’s my judgment that this fight will be more competitive than the current pricing on these men suggests.

RDR’s size will be a major factor in this outcome. Should he be able to ground Borralho and gain top position at any point in this fight then he absolutely has the ability to finish the BJJ Black belt.

Meanwhile any great advantage Borralho owns in the striking department becomes somewhat muted based on the fact that RDR is six inches the taller combatant as well he sports a four-inch reach advantage with his arms.

I can muddy the picture even further by mentioning that each of these fighters are southpaws and when two southpaws face each other odd things do occur and often occur.

Borralho’s speed, his nasty nature and his striking together lead me to believe he should be the favorite in this battle but not one with this high of price tag. I don’t believe current pricing is reflective of the kind of fight I expect from the man from the Netherlands.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

Gregory Rodrigues -205 vs. Brunno Ferreira +185 Middleweight (185lbs.)

In January of 2023, the UFC gave debuting Brazilian power striker Brunno ‘the Hulk’ Ferreira an almost impossible task by matching him up in his debut UFC fight against fellow Brazilian mixed martial artist Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues.

In that fight the more complete mixed martial artist Rodrigues failed to utilize his grappling instead choosing to try to ‘hook with a hooker’ and out slug the shorter, more compact, more explosive and well less diversified fighter in Ferreira.

Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first round.

Saturday Rodrigues, a black belt in BJJ gets his opportunity to rematch Ferreira in a fight where he understands completely the dangers of standing and trading with the short, compact, highly explosive, and profusely powerful keg of dynamite that is Ferreira.

For this rematch Rodrigues must put pride aside and grapple this anvil of an opponent for should he loose focus and attempt to stand and trade power shots with Ferreira the result of this fight will be the same as in their first.

However, should Rodrigues be able to effectively close distance on Ferreira, clasp onto him then force him to expend energy fending off the advances of Rodrigues then this fight may turn completely to Robocop’s favor.

Ferreira’s been defeated twice in his UFC career since that debut win against Rodrigues and in each instance it was an athlete with deep grappling ability that exposed Ferreira’s lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.

So the plan for Rodrigues is clear, respect the power of the short, squat keg of dynamite that is Ferreira and as early as possible transition this fight from a striking battle to a grappling battle.

Should Robocop execute this plan then he will make amends for the complete lack of fight IQ he displayed in the first fight when he decided to stand and hook with a hooker.

Rodrigues must grapple this man in order to get his hand raised.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -125

Strong lean over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms, get my final releases for UFC there or at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

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