Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 310 Pantoja vs. Asakura: Japanese knee’s

This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year, it takes place from T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV.

T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30’ octagon, the event is scheduled for 14 bouts with Early prelims starting at 3pm PT, prelims at 5pm PT and the five fight main card 7pm PT.

This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170lb and larger which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.

2024 has been a tough year on underdogs as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent, this year favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.

Despite the run on chalk digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.

Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division in essence ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest ranked fighters.

Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artists.

Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate threats in the division.

He’s fast, strong, athletic and of all his physical attributes the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical, rather it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.

Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice to say the least.

In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization choose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has had but a couple fights since 2021.

Asakura’s a large man as a 135lb athlete so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.

Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.

Once this fight begins, I will trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.

Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champions mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward pressing.

In Asakura we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents and in Alexandre Pantoja we have the artistry of a world class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary then dominate them.

This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135

Cyril Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Number two ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.

Then Gane’s footwork, deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn inside position and in fact he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.

In this fight the difference is that Gane’s become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist so he must be viewed as improved since these two last tangled.

For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.

Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.

Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, experience advantages together with his understanding that at thirty-six this may be his last viable run for a title position him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world class but more singularly versed opponent.

Their first fight was a five-round fight, this one is scheduled for three which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.

Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous Saturday. Current pricing does not reflect accurately Volkov’s chances of winning this fight in my judgement.

Volkov +285

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300

Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Do Hoo Choi +120 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive simply put.

Athletic, with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. Elbow’s, knee’s, fists and heels he hurls at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction.

‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and at times completely reckless in his pursuit to ‘seek and destroy’.

In Choi, the ‘Korean Super boy’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi’s nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet, he’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi’s also highly mature and is highly intelligent.

Choi like his compatriot before him Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie’ served in Korea’s military interrupting his fighting career. He now returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.

In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in and out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi’s going to employ in this fight. Let’s not forget that it was Choi who opened -125 in this fight!

As Angel Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example of it.

Choi +120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170

Heavy lean over

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic: Goat race

Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.

The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.

UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.

Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.

Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.

Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.

Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title

Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.

Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.

Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.

In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.

Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.

He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’

Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.

Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.

We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.

Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.

Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.

It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.

At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.

I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.

Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!

In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.

In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.

Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.

Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.

He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.

The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?

To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.

Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.

I believe Oliveria earns victory again.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165

Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.

69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.

Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.

So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.

Three Fighter Parlay

Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.

Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.

Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.

1.47u returns 1.0u

Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Friday late AM PT only at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV100 Magny vs. Prates: Magny force

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.

The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.

The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.

Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.

This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.

Underdog correction?

I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.

Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.

Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.

Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.

In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.

His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.

In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.

Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.

Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.

There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.

Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.

So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.

I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205

Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)

Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.

Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.

Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.

He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.

Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s.  Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.

If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.

If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.

Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380

Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.

Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.

A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.

Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.

Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.

Trocoli +155 .5u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Originally posted 11-12 24 VSiN Digital

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Edmonton: Moreno vs. Albazzi: Rose colored smashes

Edmonton, Alberta hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night production where an exuberant crowd, the larger 30’ Octagon and fourteen scheduled mixed martial arts fights will exhilarate fight fans. Preliminary action begins at 2pm PT.

Last week favorites continued their record setting pace by realizing an 11-2 result pushing favorites to 301-125-13 or 68.5%. This is as high a favorite rate as I have ever witnessed in my twenty plus years of chasing UFC underdogs!

Digital results were reduced by a unit with Kamzat Chimaev’s destruction of Rober Whittaker. Results this year stand 24-22 +7.65u despite the chalk parade thus far in 2024.

Brandon Moreno -150 vs. Amir Albazi +130 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

This main event pits the number two ranked flyweight against its number three ranked athlete.

Albazi, an Iraqi purple belt in BJJ is 17-1 and ranked third in the division. Albazi is a furiously paced striker/grappler who has finished fourteen of his seventeen previous opponents.

After competing against nominally ranked fighters in the division Albazi stepped up in class in his last fight which was June of 2023 to squeak out an oh so close decision against Kai Kara France. I can tell readers that most everyone who viewed the fight scored it for France as did nineteen of twenty-one press attendees.

Brandon Moreno is a Mexican hero for being the first to capture a UFC title for Mexico.

He’s put himself through a torrid pace over the last seven years or so fighting the who’s who of the division and besting all comers save for a recent loss to Brandon Royval that convinced Moreno to go away for some time to refresh his mind in order to allow his body to recuperate and the ‘fight’ in him to be reinvigorated.

Moreno is the number two ranked fighter in the division. He’s the taller man by two inches with the same amount of reach advantage and he’s a year younger than Albazzi.

Size, experience, depth of competition faced, and well-rounded mixed martial arts aptitude all point me to Moreno in this five-round fight.

Total in this fight is 4.5Rds. Over -200

Mike Malott -240 vs. Trevin Giles +195 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Low hanging fruit.

Trevin Giles is a journeyman welterweight talent that has been given incredibly difficult fights recently. After a victory against a similarly versed foe, he has been finished by two absolute killers.

Giles is a former police officer, so he always earns my respect, but he’s been exposed to dangerous more pedigreed athletes in those last two bouts where one who submitted him then the next knocked him out.

Now he is assigned a date this Saturday to face a Canadian killer who was exposed in his last fight and is ready for a major bounce.

Mike Malott is the former top fifteen athlete in the division before Nel Magny, the current number fifteen finished him in Toronto in January. Now he gets a return fight, in Canada and against an athlete that seems ideally placed there.

This is a poor, poor spot for Giles as the UFC seems to be set on allowing Malott every opportunity to matriculate his way back into the welterweight rankings.

Malott -240

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Lean Over

Jhonata Diniz -180 vs. Derrick Lewis +155 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Two ships passing in the night?

Diniz is a brazen Brazilian heavyweight. At 8-0 he’s shown himself to be a fast, powerful striker as he has KO’d seven of his eight professional victims.

However, Diniz 2-0 in the UFC steps up aggressively here to face ‘the Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis so he understands this opportunity offers both high risk with high reward.

Lewis is the all-time KO king in the UFC. He is more athletic than most give him credit for and for six or seven minutes, provided any fight remains standing like this one figures to, Lewis is as dangerous a heavyweight fighter as there is.

There is a reason this fight is situated where it is!

Props are not out but the total is and it’s 1.5 Rds. Under -145 which leads me to believe that one of these two is getting dusted…

The ‘Bout business Podcast drops Friday midday Pacific Time. Grab all my final UFC releases there.

Enjoy the hostilities and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 308 Topuria vs. Holloway: Spanish fly

Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates hosts this week’s UFC 308 event where a full crowd, a large 30’ octagon and twenty-eight elite athletes are scheduled to compete for pride, evolution toward a top ten ranking and championship belts.

Of the fourteen featured fights nine fights take place from welterweight (170lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.) so fight fans will not only see highly ranked athletes competing but they’ll see large, agile, ultra dangerous ones compete at that!

Last week Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez displayed that “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight rather the size of fight in the dog” as he systematically broke down the hulking Brazilian striker Michel Pereira and finished him in the fifth round. That victory pushed this column’s profitability to 24-21 +8.65u to date.

Ilia Topuria -235 Champion vs. Max Holloway +195 Featherweight (145lbs.) title

For the last several years, Max Holloway or Alexander Volkanovski have Championed the featherweight division. Volkanovski was an unfortunate yet guilty party to rushing back for a title defense some months ago to defend it against Topuria and the German born athlete fighting out of Spain KO’d the Aussie for committing the error.

Since that fight in February of this year Topuria has taken every parade route available to celebrate his title while throwing barbs at fellow featherweights he proclaims to be unworthy of facing him.

One of those happens to be former featherweight champion Max Holloway, Topuria’s opponent Saturday. Max is convinced that Topuria’s been ducking him with the help of the UFC and to be honest I believe there’s some truth to the accusation.

Topuria is a most electrifying champion who holds deft boxing ability and footwork, he has power emitting from every appendage. He is twenty-seven, a black belt in BJJ and was also raised with a stout Grego Roman wrestling base at an incredibly early age. It’s this facet to Topuria’s fight arsenal that provides him with the unfailing confidence that no matter where a fight goes, he’ll hold advantage.

Violent tools, youthful confidence, and tremendous belief/momentum Topuria totes into this tussle with an all-time great.

Max Holloway is thirty-two but has been competing against the top five of this division for years. Besides competing against the elite, Holloway, a brown belt in BJJ himself, brings four inches of height advantage into this fight which will provide him with a substantial edge provided Holloway can keep the fight standing and at distance.

Once the fight begins Max will use his footwork to maintain distance and apply a steady dose of volume combination striking/kicking onto the incoming attacker ‘El Matador’ who will be the forward charging, raging bull in this fight Saturday despite his nickname.

Topuria will trust the plan of attack most effective against Holloway which was perfected by Volkanovski’s approach to be the Hawaiian.

A steady dose of forward pressure striking, deft head movement and evasion of strikes and takedowns strategically implemented to keep the taller Holloway guessing.

Topuria camp understands that Holloway has never been finished and they’ll surely be looking to change that narrative.

Holloway for his part must be a businessperson in the cage and his attack must appear much more clinical in nature. He must ensure he maintains a calm demeanor for any pointing to the mat and toe-to-toe throwdown offers will not produce a favorable outcome against this younger, quicker, more profusely powerful Topuria.

This fight has every indication of being one of the most action-packed fights of the year and I’ll have more to say about it as the week wears on.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Round Under -125

Kamzat Chimaev -250 vs. Robert Whittaker +210 Middleweight (185lbs) co main event

Chimaev is a Russian with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess who fights out of Sweden. He hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential early in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division.

Chimaev’s two middleweight wins were against one Gerald Meerschaert who is a legitimate athlete fighting outside of the top fifteen, then Kamaru Usman the former welterweight title holder who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close decision.

Whittaker’s a bona-fide middleweight elite.

He’s ranked third in a division where he’s held the title previously and one that is as competitive as there is in the UFC.

A black belt in hapkido, a black belt in karate and a black belt in BJJ, Whittaker’s competed against every form of middleweight threat, body type, fighting specialty and nationality,

Save for a loss to current champion DuPlessis, which was an off night for Whittaker and two title losses to then champion Adesanya, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years and now he faces an opponent that’s not competed in the octagon since last October.

When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from Chimaev.

Provided Whittaker can overcome Chimaev’s early overtures he’ll be in a great position to navigate this fight into the second round where he may begin to turn the tables on the wild maniacal front running Chimaev.

Whittaker must survive the first then in the second round he must tax the fatiguing Russian and direct him into the shadow realm where the effects of early round high output fighting can fatigue and conquer the most formidable fighter.

Whittaker has a depth of experience; he’s faced every form of threat in the division, and he’s focused on a title return. His drive, patience, plan and most importantly his legitimate middleweight strength will over the course of this fight begin to sap the young brash Chimaev of his striking effectiveness then eventually his ability to fend off an opponent in Whittaker who will turn up the intensity of his strikes each minute until Chimaev cracks.

I expect it to be sometime in the second round that Whittaker begins to dominate this fight and eventually shuts this bloated welterweight down via stoppage.

Whittaker +210

Chimaev must prove he is able to compete with the Middleweight elite.

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -125

This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available early Friday AM since these fights from Abu Dhabi begin at 7am PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV98 Royval vs. Taira: Flat Taira?

This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for Las Vegas 98 Royval vs. Taira. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts.

The APEX utilizes the smaller cage, and the environment is less voracious than live events as very few fans are able to attend. Six fights are comprised with athletes competing at 170LBSor above so large aggressive men jammed in a smaller cage with ill intent in my mind hints of violent effects.

Fifteen of the twenty-six athletes competing are from the U.S. so handicapping the travel aspect of those fights becomes potentially advantageous should any U.S. fighters compete against an athlete who has had to navigate travel into the states then to Las Vegas.

Last week my release of Ovince Saint Preux was a poor one as he was submitted early in the first round of his fight. I’ll take a 22-20 +7.65unit profit into this column.

Brandon Royval +185 vs. Tatsuro Taira -225 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

Taira is a Japanese athlete who has been propelled up the rankings in noticeably short time. 16-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC, Taira is ranked fifth in the division despite the fact that he has competed against only one ranked opponent.

Taira, twenty-four is a submission specialist, he’s a purple belt in BJJ and his athleticism, cardio and quickness are advantages he utilizes with great expertise.

Taira’s strength in this fight will be his grappling, youth and quickness together which may be a favorable matchups against a guy in Royval who has had trouble defending takedowns and aggressive incoming grapplers prior.

In BJJ black belt and number one flyweight contender Brandon Royval, Taira steps well up in class and not into the top ten but against the division’s top cat.

Royval’s got a depth of UFC experience, he’s competed for the title previously and has been in against the absolute elite in the division, yet he comes a +285 underdog at open?

The market seems to think yes though the price on the incoming Japanese fighter has dropped with Royval interest.

While Taira’s shown great physical development in his fights, it’s my position that in this one he may be stepping up in class juuuuust a bit too quickly.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125

Jun Yong Park -185 vs. Brad Tavares +160 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event

These two were scheduled to fight July 20th but the fight was cancelled. Then, these two were priced at a pick-em when that fight opened only to have Park be the -165 favorite once the bout was called at the last minute.

Now for this second scheduled bout in three months Park opens -185 to +160 for Tavares.

Neither of these men is ranked but with a victory against the other the winner solidifies himself as a solid top twenty athlete is a division stacked with killers.

Park is thirty-three and the younger fighter who enters this fight off a loss to submission savant Andre Muniz. Park won his previous four bouts against relatively journeyman competition prior to that bout.

In Tavares we have one of the great and experienced athletes in the division and the UFC. Tavares now thirty-six has been in with the elite of the division and he’s faced every form of fight specialty in his lengthy career.

Tavares enters this bout 1-3 in his last four, but those losses were to the elite of the division and its current champion. He’s the taller man by three inches in this fight, he holds an inch reach advantage and beside competing against more elite competition, Tavares enters this fight firing fresh as he has not had to compete since February.

Park’s youth, exuberance and willingness all make him a potential mark for Tavares Saturday. I though this prior to the first fight and I feel it even more now with the inflated underdog price of Tavares.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -265

Chidi Njokuani -185 vs. Jared Gooden +160 Welterweight (170lbs.)

The ‘Styles make fights’ battle of the night!

Thirty-five-year-old Njokuani is a black belt in BBJ. He is tall, lean, long, profusely powerful and a highly athletic Muay Thai force for about four to five minutes.

After a round, Njokuani usually the taller man in the cage with reach advantage can slow both mentally and physically if he is unable to lightning bolt opponents early and launch them to la-la land.

In thirty-year old Gooden we have a stout, tough, durable forward pressing brown belt in BJJ who has power in his hands but can be most effective in close and mauling. Gooden’s confidence grows in fights the longer he can tax opponents by pressing them, clutching them, and forcing them to defend.

Gooden’s fight acumen ascends in fights while Njokuani’s fades.

Gooden enters this fight off a win and has competed against better than decent competition so far in his career but steps up in class of opponent for this fight.

Njokuani opened -150 and is now -185 to Gooden’s +160. If Gooden can see round two a live bet on him as probable underdog would be a savvy consideration.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -155

Clayton Carpenter -190 vs. Luccas Rocha +165 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Rocha’s a one-dimensional power striking Brazilian fighter making his debut in the UFC coming off a contender series demolition.

Carpenter is a wrestling natural from the time he was in diapers and has one UFC bout under his belt, a win.

While Rocha has never been finished it’s my take that his forceful aggressive forward launching striking will lend itself ideally to the more patient, beguiling, sophisticated wrestler/grappler who will be waiting to engage, take this fight down to the mat then drown the striker.

Carpenter -190*

Carpenter -175 is this week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ release. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast…. it’s business!

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -135

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree: Ovince Von Flue?

Salt Lake City, UT is the location for this week’s UFC 307 Pereira vs. Roundtree production.

Early Preliminary action begins at 3pm PT with the main card kicking off at 7pm PT.

This fight card is steeped with experienced veteran athletes as thirteen of the twenty-two fighters scheduled to compete on this card are aged thirty-six or older.

The average age of the fighters in the first three bouts of the day is 38 years old. There are seven fights with men weighing 170 pounds and above so the odds that we’ll have fights finishing inside the distance are high.

Lat week I dropped a parlay attempt with the French pairing of Imavov to Saint-Denis. Digital results for 2024: 22-19 +8.15u

Alex Pereira -450 vs. Kalil Roundtree +385 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title

Champion Pereira is the UFC’s new darling as in true ‘Shama warrior’ fashion he takes fights anytime, anywhere and against any opponent.

The UFC needed a strong headliner to help prop up the lady’s bantamweight title fight for this event and they went directly to Pereira as he is as popular with fight fans as he is lethal inside the cage against opponents.

Since July of 2022 Pereira has earned six devastating finishes. He also holds a decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz which together is proof that this monster is able to compete for a full twenty-five minutes and against absolute elite level light heavyweight competition.

In Roundtree we get the eighth ranked fighter in the division who is tough, durable, profusely powerful with his elbows/fists and committed to an aggressive dose of leg bludgeoning kicks.

Roundtree’s level of competition faced wanes compared to the elite brand of mixed martial artists that Pereira has slayed so his step up in competition is substantial if I may be understated.

Roundtree will be giving away size to Pereira who will be three inches the taller man in the cage and will also hold a five-inch reach advantage in what most fight pundits agree will be a stand-up battle.

Height and reach are tangible advantages for fighters involved in stand-up affairs so there is no real quandary in the fact that Pereira came -450 at opening for this fight.

This fight seems like a throwback to a time when they would give the greatest, Muhammad Ali an opponent like Oscar Bonavena who was rough, tough and captured the public’s imagination with the fairy tale that he had a legitimate chance to win the title only to have Ali shred them when the fight actually transpired.

Roundtree has intelligence, he has power and a forceful will, so we know he’s coning into this battle to hurl Sunday shots at the champion with the intent of putting him to sleep. However, just like Bonavena and company were little match for Ali, I handicap Roundtree to put up a good fight for a couple of rounds before the diversity of power strikes/kicks he absorbs becomes too much for him to endure.

Total in this fight:  1.5Rds. Over -145

Raquel Pennington -170 vs. Julianna Pena +145 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Pena is the former champion who defeated the great Amanda Nunes only to be decimated by her in the rematch which took place early in 2022 which also happened to be the last time Pena competed in the octagon.

Pena’s smart, articulate and athletic. A blue blet in BJJ Pena backs up her modest grappling ability with a striker’s flair as she is founded with Muay Thai striking and boxing expertise.

In Rocky Pennington we have the consummate grinder/grappler/wrestler. Pennington, a purple belt in BJJ earned the title in a dynamic win over Myra Buena Silva in January of this year after defeating her previous five opponents in similar grinding fashion.

Once this fight begins it will be Pena who will attempt to use athletic movement and angles to try to paint Pennington with punches upon her attempts to enter into the pocket so she may unleash damaging strike upon the Champion.

As is usually the case for the wrestler/grappler, forceful, constant forward pressure is the key to this fight for Pennington as she must eliminate Pena’s striking distance, clasp ahold of her then force her into competing in a wrestling match where she is not on the same level as is the champion.

Standing Pena will hold advantage in this championship fight while in the clinch, pressed against the fence and groveling on the mat is where Pennington needs to take this fight in order for her to hold advantage.

‘Styles make fights’ as Angel Dundee would say and in this championship fight where the bout takes place will be indicative to who is in control of this fight.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260

Ryan Spann -295 vs. Ovince St. Preux +250 light Heavyweight (205lbs.)

Spann, thirty-three is 6’5” tall is a front running striker with power. Spann’s first six minutes are as forceful and dangerous as one may face in the light heavyweight division however after the first round or so Spann’s cardio and abilities seem to wane dynamically.

Spann’s power, cardio and more importantly he confidence all really wane after the first round of his fights. It’s my opinion that his obstacles are mental for the man is tall, long, and violently natured.

In St. Preux we have an athlete that at 41 seems to be taken too lightly for the level of fighting he is still able to put forth in the octagon.

St. Prez’s more well rounded as a fighter for his striking is better than average and his forward pressing wrestling/grappling is elite. In his last bout St. Preux defeated a teammate of Spann’s one Kennedy Nzechukwu in an oh so close decision.

Spann’s early force will have to be dealt with appropriately by St. Preux and Ovince must force this fight into the second round and beyond in order to have his constant forward pressure begin to sap the will from Spann.

St. Preux has proven to me that he still has the desire, ability and will to compete in the UFC, while Ryan Spann will need to show out on this opponent or potentially face being cut from the organization.

Each fighter has much to prove here Saturday night and it’s my position that St. Preux is getting somewhat disrespected by the pricing of this bout.

St. Preux +250

.5 unit investment

Total in this fight: 1.5 -135 Over

Lean over for St. Preux best interest!

Friday mid-day my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Paris Saint-Denis vs. Moicano: It’s hard to be a Saint-Denis….in the City

This week’s UFC production is a Fight Night event from Paris, France. Early prelims drop at 9am PT. The fight slate is scheduled for fourteen bouts to be competed inside the traditional 30’ cage.

There are nine French fighters populating the card with one from Belgium whom I expect will be regarded by the French fans as one of their own in an event that has athletes competing from across the globe.

As is always the case, local crowds, athletes, and judging must all be regarded when handicapping these fights, especially those involving local fighters.

Favorites in the UFC stand 255-112-11 or 67.4%, that rate has held for most of the year and is higher than the traditional 63+/-% of the past several years.

In the NOCHE event, the Manuel Torres -120 setback cost us 1.20u. Sneak-Teep releases in 2024 now stand 16-9-2 +7.30u

Let’s pad that profit.

Benoit Saint-Denis -270 vs. Renato Moicano +225 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Moicano is the eleventh ranked lightweight. He’s finding success in the division after competing for years as a lighter featherweight weight fighter. He’s crafty, well-seasoned and has faced the elite in two different divisions.

Moicano’s recent rise in social media popularity is coupled with a winning run in mixed martial arts results. Moicano enters this bout against this ‘local hero’ opponent with momentum and belief. Two traits that can propel a fighter to championships.

Moicano’s game revolves around grappling and the submission. He is a black belt in BJJ as well he’s versed in Muay Thai striking but at age thirty-five and considering what he’s been through physically in his career Moicano’s ability to withstand forceful power strikes from opponents has waned.

To date, he’s been able to overcome his lack of durability with a beguiling ability to overcome firestorms, earn an inside/clasping position on less versed opponents then finish them like a spider does to a fly caught in the web.

In tenth ranked Saint-Denis, Moicano has his elite opponent.

Saint Denis is a huge man for the division, and he’ll hulk in size over the more svelte and former featherweight Moicano.

Saint-Denisa is a brown belt in BJJ and a black belt in Judo. His striking is profusely power based though he can be wild and overly forceful at times and against world class BJJ practitioners like Moicano, wild is never advised.

Saint-Denis is a former member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment in France; he was awarded the Medal of the Nation’s gratitude and the Combatant’s cross after his five years in the French service.

This man is focused, he’s driven to success and his fighting acumen is derived from his father who was a gifted Judo practitioner and taught his son the art when he was in diapers.

Saint-Denis is the younger man by six years, he’s a southpaw who will be the faster man in the cage and he’s well more athletic/explosive than is Moicano.

BSD took time off from his Poirier loss (one he was rushed into in my estimation) to regroup and refocus himself for a run at the lightweight title, now that’ she’s tasted world class competition.

This fight against Moicano, in Paris, is a desirable spot for Saint Denis, highly desirable.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -170

Nassourdine Imavov -220 vs. Brendan Allen +185 Middleweight co main event

This scheduled five round battle will be epic.

In one corner we have a tough, gritty, redneck grappler from Florida expertly equipped in BJJ but still refining his striking ability.

Brendan Allen arrives in Paris with a seven-fight win streak intact. However, a closer look at the competition he’s faced shows that Allen’s defeated opponents that any top ten fighter in the division should have defeated.

He steps up in class for this stern test against top ten competition and the question to be asked is how he will fare against elite middleweights as a more singularly dimensioned fighter for Allen gives away striking expertise to any athlete currently in the UFC’s top ten middleweights.

Fourth ranked Imavov of Russian descent but fighting out of France solidified his ranking in the top five of this division this past June when he for all intents and purposes knocked Jared Cannonier out.

With a world class boxing base Imavov, 14-4 professionally has refined his mixed martial arts arsenal to include capable BJJ under Fernand Lopez at the MMA Factory in Paris.

He is a most fluent striker with deft footwork and an abundance of damaging power with fists, feet, knees, and elbows. He specializes in striking/kicking precision, and he’s developed his cardio over the course of his last several fights against elite competition to provide him the ability to emit high output into the championship rounds.

6-2-1 in the UFC, Imavov has matriculated his way into the top five of the division diligently and now has the opportunity to solidify himself as a potential championship contender by dominating Allen in this test.

Imavov will surely try to keep this fight standing where he’ll own great advantage over Allen and Allen will be shooting for the takedowns and attempting at all costs to eliminate any space between these two and make this a roll in the hay on the canvas of that Paris octagon.

I believe the intelligent, well-rounded fighting acumen of Imavov will be the difference in a fight that will highlight Allen’s toughness but also his lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135

I like the fact that this is scheduled for five rounds. Each man has experience in five round bouts which contributes to this week’s digital release:

Imavov/Allen over 2.5Rds. -135

Taylor Lapilus -300 vs. Vince Morales +250 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Lapilus is a French fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC.

In his return Lapilus has displayed vast improvement in his fighting game and in this tussle, he’s had a full camp to prepare for an opponent that was injured and had to pull out of the fight just a week or so ago.

In, on short notice comes another former UFC athlete, Vince Morales who is coming off a notable win in United Fight League. He takes this fight with little to no camp in order to endear himself as a company man to the UFC.

So, with little to no camp or notice Morales travels into French territory to take on a local hero who has had the benefit of a full camp.

Build all your parlays around Taylor Lapilus fight Enthusiasts!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds over -300

I for one will be checking the ‘Lapilus via decision’ props based on that total!

Fights begin Saturday at 9am PT so prepare appropriately by accessing the ‘Bout Business Podcast which will be up sometime Friday early morning!

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 306 Noche del los Chingons

This week the UFC salutes Mexican fight heritage with it’s Noche UFC 306 production. I am overjoyed that this event is being produced and packaged in honor of the Mexican fighter.

It was at the University of Arizona in the late 70’s during the heyday of ABC’s Wide World of Sports when Howard Cosell would arrive in the ‘Old Pueblo’ to broadcast regularly televised boxing matches almost all of which I attended.

Attending those fights, I observed AND absorbed of the passion of the Mexican fight fans as well the valor, guts, toughness and never quit attitude of the proud Mexican fighter, male or female.

This Noche event features ten MMA bouts with athletes all weighing 155lbs. and lighter. There are Mexican athletes featured in all, but the main event and the Sphere will feature a large 30’ Octagon.

Last week we invested in the well-rounded abilities of Israeli athlete Yanal Ashmouz to add another 1.05u to 2024 profitability which stands 22-17 +10.35u.

Let’s find another winning position in this Noche event!

Champion Sean O’Malley -130 vs. Merab Dvalishvili +110 Bantamweight (135lbs.) Title

Champion O’Malley has gone from a young skinny precision striker with physical characteristics advantageous to MMA success to a structured, mature, skilled, well versed, and complete mixed martial artist.

O’Malley has evolved mentally, physically and within the realm of MMA.

He’s fast, precise and swelling with the confidence that comes from winning championships. He’s fueled his own momentum from the hidden, tireless work he’s completed that no fan sees.

Those who claim O’Malley is not the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is may be correct.

However, O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last seven years or so competing against with Javier Mendes and being tutored by coach Tim Welch have put him in position to both be confident in his ability to compete against Dvalishvili types but more importantly to do so with the confidence that the opppo0onent is unaware of this cultivated and stealth grappling ability.

O’Malley is a true and equipped mixed martial artist.

Georgian Dvalishvili is your sawed-off shotgun Dagestani chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing any effects of tiring. That said, in this matchup he is giving away massive advantages in age, height and limb reach to the champion.

Dvalishvili’s best weaponry is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. The Dagestani and the tight clan he trains with do not allow opponents to breathe, think or act for they are constantly moving forward to press, smother and engage.

O’Malley wants to set opponents up for a finish with his ability to move and create striking angles from distance which allow him to carve opponents trying to gain the inside.

Dvalishvili plays forward pressure only and by that I mean that he has one single point of focus in fights and that is to immediately press upon the opponent, take said opponent against the cage, transition down to the mat then from top control open up the faucet and reign never ending ground and pound.

O’Malley requires space in order to flow while Dvalishvili prefers to be adhered together with any opponent in a strait jacket so he may grind unrelentingly until the opponent wilts.

Both of these athletes have vied against the elite of the division, and both belong in this fight, however only one will walk away with the Bantamweight belt Saturday night.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Over -154*

Many fight pundits feel the longer the fight goes the more Dvalishvili will have a chance to take Suga deep and sap him from his strength while the O’Malley camp believes that he’ll be in position catch Merab with a laser right hand sometime in this fight as the Georgian attempts to gain inside position.

It’s my judgement that this fight will be an epic stylistic confrontation and at this point those who wish to side with O’Malley should jump him now as his price is only going to go up while Merab maniacs should hold tight and gain the best possible underdog price they can on the Tasmanian Devil.

Champion Alexa Grasso -130 vs. Valentina Shevchenko +110 Women’s Flyweight title

This is the trilogy fight for these ladies.

Former Champion Shevchenko was at one time considered (at least by me) as the all-time pound for pound women’s MMA GOAT.

Yes, even over Amanda Nunes however, that was when Shevchenko was competing in her early thirties. Now she’s thirty-six and seems to be embracing a world outside of fighting. Shevchenko has discovered how and what opportunities exist for an individual with riches and wherewithal.

It’s my judgement that Shevchenko’s shown a slight ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life to an extent.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what Muhammad Ali’s trainer and confidant Angelo Dundee taught me years ago.

Dundee would warn that; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s/notoriety they’ve longed for from their fighting success, that notoriety, money, and the distractions coming from the public accolades corrode that (or any) fighter’s skills.

Yes, success erodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to will it. However, she’s now thirty-six and coming off two tough five round battles against Grasso, the current champion.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight she’ll put all she has and has known out there in order to recapture the title.

For Grasso, she’s had months to reprepare for this trilogy challenge to be held on the night the UFC honors Mexican fighters and she’ll be fighting for her heritage and her title.

In both previous fights Grasso utilized speed, timing, and a specific plan of attack for success and in each case those skills were enough to earn her the title.

Grasso and camp feel they have the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this fight both camps understand that little separates these two world class fighters.

Different in this third fight may be the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion, but the Sphere will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts and each one will be yearning to see the Mexican dominate. So yes, there is a different form of pressure on Grasso entering this trilogy.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire, and as in the other bouts these two have competed in, she’ll realize that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully!

In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know from opening bell that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title, retain her reputation and solidify her position in history of the flyweight division let alone of the many great Mexican fighters throughout the course of history.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -200

I have strong thoughts on this trilogy fight and will have investments into this fight come Friday.

Manuel Torres -120 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes +100 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Fight of the night!

Chilean fighter Bahamondes is unusually tall at 6’3” and he sports a 75” reach allowing him advantage in those areas in almost any fight he takes in this division.

He’s primarily a distance striker who throws in flurries as he lands 7.15 significant strikes per minute and only accepts 4.38. Bahamondes striking effectiveness accumulates over rounds as opposed to having profuse one punch KO power. He moves with fluidity and is gifted defensively.

Bahamondes is 5-2 in the UFC with solid wins and a couple of losses to athletes that have the ability to forge forward, cut the cage and corner Bahamondes, thus taking his greatest asset away from him, his distance.

From the inside or pressed against the fence and later in fights the long, tall drink of water that is Bahamondes can begin to slow and it’s here where he is vunerable. Can it be that the massive weight cut affects Bahamondes later in fights? That answer for me is an unequivocal yes.

Mexican fighter Manuel Torres is giving up height and reach in this brawl, but he is a more well-rounded mixed martial artist. Torres possesses abundant KO power coupled with a deft ability to submit. It is in the aggressiveness of Torres, his pressure, power strikes/kicks and incredible grappling ability that have allowed him to earn a 3-0 tally in the UFC.

Torres striking is high output as he lands 8.14 significant strikes per minute while giving up only 3.16. As importantly his 3.26 takedowns per fifteen minutes is the statistic that Bahamondes and camp will be trying to quell for it is in Torres ability to mix up his attack that make him the more well dangerous fighter in this matchup.

Torres -120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Pick-em

Heavy lean to over

Friday mid-day PT the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast at GambLou.com

Enjoy the Tribute to Mexican heritage and fighting!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV 97 Burns vs. Brady: The Brady Punch

After a week away the UFC returns to Las Vegas for two events, the first this week at its APEX center then next week at T-Mobile the world will get to experience UFC Noche an extravaganza that will be held in the new Las Vegas Sphere and headlined with two world championship bouts.

Digital results after the first eight months of the year stand 21-17 +9.28u which is a solid return considering that favorites this year in the UFC are winning at a 67.3% clip.

This week there are thirteen scheduled bouts for the smaller cage at the APEX. Three of the fights happen at 170lbs and above so hopefully we’ll get to witness violence from the many smaller bodied combatants!

Sean Brady -185 vs. Gilburt Burns +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Two gifted grapplers will meet in the middle of the octagon Saturday and rather than grope, grapple, and grind, these two will compete at least for a time on the feet. There Burns does possess the more developed striking while Brady has a believer’s confidence in his.

Brady will strive from the opening bell to drive this battle to the mat. On the ground this fight figures to be fascinating for the American Brady is an accomplished black belt in BJJ with Muay Thai skills and will be the slightly larger man while the Brazilian is a third-degree black belt with developed striking diversity and power. That said, he did spend much of his career at 155 lbs.

On the ground this fight can prove to be fascinating because watching the different dialects of BJJ compete at an elite level would be a treat, one I would love to witness especially with the larger men.

However, that type of high output, sustained effort is an approach that may well favor the younger athlete because of the enormous amount of energy needed to employ such a tactic for fifteen minutes let alone twenty-five.

Fighters seven years and younger than their opponents win roughly 65% of the time in the UFC and it is in this statistic that I believe Brady will hold advantage.

Burns will look crisp, sharp, and effective early but he must be able to sustain it. The constant forward pace/grind/pressure from Brady will be forced on Burns in an attempt to both negate his offense and tax the thirty-eight-year-old warrior of his cardio. Then, over the course of the championship rounds begin to display his advantage in this fight, his youth and ability to compete for a full five rounds.

This fight opened as a dead ‘pick-em,’ so I’ll watch how this line moves through the week and make any decision once the price stabilizes.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -180

This fight may well end up at 4.5Rds. so I’ll jump the Over 3.5 -180 and use it as the second leg of a parlay. (see below).

Natalia Silva -300 vs. Jessica Andrade +250 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main event

Brazilian athlete and former champion in the UFC Jessica Andrade is a storied mixed martial artist who has competed effectively and for championships at two different weight classes in the UFC.

She’s competed against the elite of two divisions for twenty-seven fights spanning eleven years, so her resume is complete, yet she hungers to continue to be active.

Andrade’s found herself toiling in recent personal issues that mandate she stay busy and earn to help her work her way back into financial stability. This is why she has been taking as many fights so close together as we have witnessed over the last several months.

Andrade’s surely a future hall of fame UFC athlete but in 2024 and now thirty-two years old, her skills, particularly her speed, quickness and footwork have waned which is unfortunate as Andrade is undersized for flyweight and has been used to being the more fleet, skilled, athletic fighter in the cage. That will NOT be the case this Saturday.

In this matchup, Andrade is faced with a future star in Natalia Silva, a Brazilian mixed martial artist with refined striking and grappling skill, tremendous speed, and huge momentum.

While Silva is stepping up in class of opponent, that fact is that she’ll be three inches the taller fighter with the same amount of reach advantage as well Silva’s better than five years younger than Andrade.

Silva’s youth as with Sean Brady will be the assets both athletes rely upon to try to get their hands raised this weekend.

When the bell to round one rings, we’ll witness Silva’s advantages of speed, quickness and footwork are tangible and real. Those skills will guide her through this fight provided she has the cardio and level-headedness to maintain her distance and composure from the incoming raging fury of Andrade.

Silva must keep Andrade at the end of her strikes and blister the former champion with precision strikes, kicks knees and elbows as she tries to enter the pocket.

Speed kills.

Silva -300 parlay to ‘Over 3.5 -180 Rounds Burns/Brady.’

1unit invested returns 1.07 units

GamLou.com ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day T Friday. My final releases for this fight card can only be found there!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!