Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Hernandez vs. Rodrigues: From Oakland to Sac-town, the bay area and back down Cali is where they get they mack down

This week Sacramento, CA, is the host city for UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs. Rodrigues.

This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts, six of which feature athletes who present fans with the highest rate of finishes, that’s the 170lb to Heavyweight divisions of the UFC.

Ten fighters travel into the states from out of the country to compete against domestic athletes so monitoring those weight cuts and fight week developments are important. Four Californian’s will compete on the card two facing one another (Emmers vs. Douglas) and the other two face combatants from Canada and Brazil.

Last week MacKenzie Dern -220 displayed the world class fight acumen we discussed in our breakdown to thoroughly dominate Canadian Gillian Robertson who was in over her head from the time this fight was announced.

The only actor that had a worse night than Robertson was her cornerman Din Thomas who provided five rounds of absolute un-motivating backup to his fighter. In fact, between the fourth and fifth round of the fight it was clear that Thomas was embarrassed at what was transpiring and he took it out on his fighter.

In the fight game sometimes an athlete hits the octagon with a blank stare and little fight. This is what happened to Robertson last Saturday unfortunately.

Let’s Fight!

Anthony Hernandez -170 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +140* Middleweight (185lbs.) Main Event

Tenth ranked UFC middleweight Rodrigues is a fighter who appears to be sculpted out of marble. He is large, extremely powerful and is diversely equipped in mixed martial arts weaponry.

Rodrigues, 10-3 in UFC competition can be inconsistent in his approach to maintaining his UFC momentum as every two to three fights Rodrigues gets matched against an athlete that finds a way to upset him whether that is Jared Cannonier or Bruno Ferreira.

Rodrigues, or ‘Robocop’ as he is called is a decorated black belt in BJJ and his kicks, strikes and elbows carry devastating damage upon landing.

While Rodrigues can start fights looking formidable, strong, and fresh he often begins to slow as an opponent remains competitive and is able to force him to fight into the late second or third round where Rodrigues size and musclebound frame begin to work against him.

Rodrigues strikes at a high output (5.53 significant strikes per minute), but he eats 4.78 SS/M of power strikes so he is more than willing to trade power shots something that his opponent Fluffy Hernandez will look to avoid.

Hernandez is the seventh ranked UFC middleweight who enters this fight off a disappointing KO loss against champion Sean Strickland to which there is no same. Hernandez SS/M is 4.57 which is impressive especially considering his effective strike evasion for Fluffy only receives 3.10 SS/M.

Hernandez was riding momentum into that Strickland title opportunity before he was dominated by the champion in a performance that was unusual for Hernandez in that he was never able to get his attack started let alone unleashed.

This fight is a terrific example of girth, might, power and limited energy supply (Rodrigues) facing a fighter who will be much the slighter man physically however Hernandez will command the quickness, speed, footwork, and most especially cardio components of this fight.

Early on Rodrigues will plod forward in order to ‘make’ this fight and attempt to force Hernandez to exchange while Hernandez will look to use that large cage to contribute to his footwork and strike evasion.

Robocop can slow during fights while Hernadez never tires, and in fact usually begins to differentiate himself from his opponent after the first round has expired simply because his conditioning is as lethal a weapon for Fluffy as is his offensive MMA weaponry.

Hernandez will use his feet to force Robocop into moving and defending early in this fight, as the bout transpires and as Rodrigues begins to slow Hernandez’ speed, deft footwork and volume striking should begin to control this fight.

Hernandez, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with a black belt in Marinoble’s MMA system will need to play matador in this fight and over time sap the limited cardio from the aggressive incoming power striker Rodrigues.

Rodrigues, for his part will need to attempt to utilize the early minutes of this fight to bully, badger and physically berate Hernandez with the intention of not allowing Hernandez to breath let alone find his way into the later rounds for it is in those later rounds where the differences in these two fighters will be most pronounced.

I have many thoughts on this fight so check back Friday on the ‘Bout Business Podcast for more on this main event.

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -200

Mason Jones -265 vs. MarQuel Mederos +225 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This may be one of the most entertaining fights of the summer.

Jones travels in from Wales to take this fight against a fighter in Mederos who lives and trains in Phoenix. So travel and all of the periphery issues that surround Jones arriving to Sacramento then making weight are just a bit more complex than they are for the domestic fighter Mederos.

Jones is a simple warrior. He is big, strong, aggressive, and completely unafraid. Mason Jones ‘makes’ fights, and by that I mean he arrives, he checks in, then when the bell rings his single point of focus is to dislodged any opponent from their consciousness.

Jones weaponry is comprehensive for he is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a black belt in Judo as well he has earned a black belt in Kickboxing.

On the feet, on the floor or against the cage, Jones sports the mixed martial arts acumen and experience to dominate any fight.

Where Jones can be challenged, however, is if he has to compete against an athlete with abundant speed, precision, strike evasion, footwork, and counterstriking.

Enter MarQuel Mederos.

Mederos has the advantage of living a few hours away from Sac-town so travel and weight cutting on paper should be a much easier ordeal for him entering this foundational fight.

Mederos is a fluid striker who makes up for a lack of one punch KO power by utilizing his athleticism, footwork, octagon generalship, and volume counter striking.

Where Jones hurls bombs to destroy, Mederos utilizes combinations/counterstrikes to eventually sap the steam from opponents, then transition into his volume striking and kicking in order to overwhelm the adversary.

Mederos last fight was a draw based on a point taken from him during the fight and that does not sit well with the 11-1-1 mixed martial artist.

He yearns for this fight, this opponent, and this challenge!

Once the bell for this fight rings, it will be mandatory for Mederos to utilize his fluidity of movement and counterstriking especially early when Jones has the most sting on his power strikes/kicks.

Mederos must manage this fight into the second round, from there his athleticism and feet will begin to display the vast gap in expertise between these two for I do not believe Jones will be able to catch up to a finitely focused Mederos once Mederos gets into this bout and gets lathered up.

Jones opened -225 in this fight which in my judgement was too high an opening number on Jones. Take the fact that that price has now escalated to Jones -280 (DraftKings) and we have what I believe is a great opportunity on the underdog here.

Mederos will need to use every bit of octagon savvy and defensive aptitude in that first round to both sap the walloper from Wales of his energy then force him to have to fight into the later stages of what Mederos needs to be a fifteen minute war.

Once and if this fight can get into the second round and beyond, the complexion will change and we’ll see Jones go from hunter to the hunted as Mederos utilizes his feet, his counterstriking acumen, and his deft strike defense.

These two will compete on the feet, however, if we do see Jones initiate wrestling, it will be a sure sign that Mederos’ speed and counterstriking is forcing Jones off plan which is exactly what I believe transpires late in the fight.

Mederos take down defense stands at 82%, so he will welcome Jones shooting in on him as that will create opportunity for further counter strikes, knees, and kicks.

Mederos is live.

Mederos +225 .50u

Mederos +3.5 pts +100; 1.5u

‘Bout Business Podcast has been white hot all summer long. Friday early afternoon the podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases there.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 330 Makhachev vs. Garry: Russian roulette

The City of Brotherly ‘Shove,’ Philadelphia, PA. hosts this week’s UFC 330.

The fight slate is populated with twelve bouts which shall be held in a large thirty foot octagon in front of a frantic Philly fan base. The card features only a couple of area athletes, which is relatively unusual.

There is one Philly fighter facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete (Wells vs. Oralbai) and one bout where a Pennsylvanian athlete (Dustin Stolzfus) faces a fighter from Maryland in Mansur Abdul-Malik.

We will witness six domestic athletes facing fighters that must travel into the country to compete and eight of the scheduled twelve fights feature athletes weighing 170lbs. and above.

Higher weigh classes deliver finish rates so we can see that the organization is looking to deliver fantastic finishes. Five of the eight fights at those higher weights are lined with a total of 1.5Rds proving the potential for exciting finishes.

Last week Amada Lemos did in fact ‘fight for our money’ as she put out a great effort. Unfortunately, it was not good enough to get her hand raised.

We move forward into this card looking to get back onto the winning track!

 

Islam Makhachev -330 vs. Ian Machado Garry +285 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Ian Garry is an Irish copycat of Conor McGregor only without the finishing ability and charisma of the former UFC legend.

Garry does possess a black belt in Judo to compliment his deft fluid footwork and his always running mouth. While Garry’s power does not intimidate anyone in the division, his speed, fluidity of movement, defensive dominance and pitter patter volume striking allow him to shuck and jive his way though most dangerous fights and even into this one.

Garry is a decision machine when he has things going his way as proven by the fact that his last six bouts, all victories have each been decided by decision.

Garry’s mouth is well more poignant than is his fighting but there is a clear path of victory here for the Irish blowhard…..the pitter/patter shuck and jive decision win.

Garry’s athleticism and ability to use his feet as well as anyone in the UFC will be the tools he must rely upon to have any chance to win this fight for he MUST not allow his vice grip Russian opponent to clasp onto him. Garry in anything but freeform space is in real trouble in this matchup.

Islam Makhachev may be one of the most dominant mixed martial artists in the history of the UFC and with a victory here solidifies his claim to be one of the most accomplished UFC athletes of all time.

Makhachev will be the slighter man in the cage Saturday as Garry will be five inches the taller man, he’ll hold a five inch reach advantage in this fight, and he is eight years the younger man.

If Garry can float like a butterfly and pop like a pansy for twenty five minutes, maintain a safe distance from this Russian vice grip and force this fight into the late rounds he absolutely has a chance to win this fight.

For Champion Makhachev this fight simply revolves around how long it takes him to cut the cage, clasp onto the brash Irishman, drag him to the canvas then control him from top position on his way to greasing Garry into the mat.

Garry will be the flashy faster rabbit early in this battle and Makhachev will be the tortoise force pursuing the speedster in meticulous, calculated fashion.  

In order to win a championship, a fight needs to be won and eventually Garry be forced to try to engage in his kicking/striking if he wants to win this fight.

It’s then when Makhachev will capitalize on that mistake in tactic and shoot to clasp onto the Irishman, ground him, then mark him up with punches, elbows and ground and pound.

Makhachev opened -300 in this title fight and is currently -340 at Circa.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -180

MacKenzie Dern -220 vs. Jillian Robertson +190 Woman’s Strawweight (115lbs.)

Robertson is a Canadian athlete who enters this fight after defeating her last five opponents, three via submission which as a black belt in BJJ she is apt at, and two via TKO as she is decent throwing hands also.

Robertson’s level of competition faced however is not elite and with this step up in mixed martial arts class she will get a taste of fighting someone with world class BJJ skill.

MacKenzie Dern is the daughter of Wellington Dias a multiple time BJJ champion in Brazil. Since diapers Dern’s been competing and winning BJJ world tiles.

Once in the UFC she needed to incorporate striking and strike defense into her weaponry and while she’s still in development there, her grappling and submission game are on a level all their own in the whole of women’s MMA.

When this fight begins it will be Dern who will control the striking and eventually the ground for while both ladies believe they can excel there, the fact is that Robertson is giving away too much skill across the board in this fight. I believe this is a very advantageous spot for MacKenzie Dern.

Dern -220

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -220

Lean Over

Friday my final releases will be available on the ‘Bout Business Podcast. Catch it wherever podcasts are offered or on my webpage, GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV120 Gamrot vs. Salkilld: The Damage….done?

The UFC Meta APEX hosts this week’s Fight Night event a fight slate that reached eleven bouts just last week with the addition of two matchups.

The APEX employs the smaller 25’ cage as well the venue holds only hundreds of fans.

Of the eleven bouts, four are competitions between athletes weighing 170lbs and above. That’s where finish rates are highest, it’s rewarding to get a couple of these bouts on this APEX card as the UFC seems to be evolving away from matching larger men in that small octagon/venue.

There are three bouts where an athlete from the USA faces an opponent that travels into the Country from abroad. Those fights will bear monitoring of the travelling athlete as well, their weight cut for travel does affect the weight and preparation of athletes.

Last week my supposed Serbian ‘hammer’ was in fact the ‘nail’ as journeyman mixed martial artist Gil Urbina knocked out local fighter Vlasto Cepo in one round. Onward we journey!

Mateusz Gamrot +130 vs. Quillan Sallkild -150 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

I have been taught that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.

In this fight we have a young, tall, strong Aussie black belt in BJJ taking on a short sawed off Polish chain wrestler in a main event that should really be compelling.

Australian Quillan Salkilld ships in for this bout after winning a contender series fight then realizing a 5-0 tally in UFC completion.

Salkilld has great physical advantages in this fight as he is eleven years the younger man, and he hold reach, height, and leg length dominance.

Salkilld need to employ those physical attributes to this fight particularly in order for him to keep the forward pressing and unrelenting wrestling of Gamrot at distance. Distance will allow Salkilld to utilize his jab, fire straight right hands behind that jab then follow that combination up with a kick which must be executed from a safe distance.

While Salkilld is a decorated BJJ artist, he does not wish to foray on the floor with this vice grip of a wrestling talent in Gamrot. With that mentioned, Salkilld has earned a 7.25 takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time stat which is impressive even considering the lack of elite competition he has competed against.

While his resume shows that he has finished four of his five adversaries, a closer look shows that none of those opponents were/are ranked in the top fifteen of the division nor were they elite with unrelenting forward pressing wrestling.

In Mateusz Gamrot we get the prototypical unrelenting power wrestler.

Gamrot’s UFC resume is far more complete than Salkilld’s as well he has faced a far superior set of elite UFC lightweight competition, after all he is thirty-five.

Gamrot will need to ensure that he avoids Salkilld’s power early in this fight and upon his entry to clasp then take down the Aussie.  He will need to protect his neck in those take down attempts and not run into a choke. When he is able to engage, and when he drags this long, lanky finisher to the ground (a key for him in this fight) the fight for Gamrot will commence while the desperation to get off his back will compel the Aussie.

Gamrot’s seen and competed against short, tall, thin, and rotund strikers/wrestlers/grapplers prior while Salkilld’s first run in with an elite power wrestler of any body type will come Saturday.

This fight sets up to be competitive early but eventually the unrelenting pressure of Gamrot could begin to wear the long, tall Aussie down and eventually make him susceptible to the Gamrot control, ground and pound and damage.

After all, this is a substantial step up in class for Salkilld as well it is a five round fight, a first for Salkilld but not the first for Gamrot.

It’s my take that this will be a very competitive fight. Salkilld will need to pulverize Gamrot with elbows, fists and knees on his way to engage while Gamrot must fight this man from an inside the pocket position. Gamrot must be glue and affix himself on Salkilld in order to mute the Aussie’s offense and put him on the defense for Gamrot being forced to remain on the outside in this battle will be disaster to his chances of winning.

A great, competitive fight in a small cage. edge to wrestler?

Total in this fight: There are books with 3.5Rds. Over -125 as well there are books with 4.5Rds Under -135.

Strong Lean to Over 3.5

Alexia Thainara -240 vs. Amanda Lemos +205 Women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Tenth ranked Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner who trains with the Ribas family. She is a developing fighter who is 3-0 in UFC competition facing only a nominally effective set of competition entering this fight.

Thainara holds a two inch reach advantage in this fight which means little as she is a grappler as opposed to an effective striker. She is also a whopping eleven years the younger fighter in this matchup.

At the turn of the year I pledged to quit chasing fighters six years (+/-) older than their opponent and it has paid dividends however, in this fight I must make an exception.

Eleven ranked Amanda Lemos, now thirty-nine has competed against the absolute elite of the strawweight division. She’s realized a 9-6 record over nine years of UFC competition.

Lemos is unlike most Brazilian fighters in that her grappling is underdeveloped while her striking aptitude, power, volume, and strike defense are elite. Lemos takes this fight knowing that with a loss she freefalls down the rankings and more than likely out of the top twenty of the division which spells doom for a thirty-nine year old.

So Thainara enters the most important fight of her life while Lemos does also!

Lemos’ experience and the level of competition faced force me to believe that she’ll manage the take down attempts put on her by Thainara then when this fight remains standing I judge Lemos to be in far superior position.

I expect Lemos to fight like a pit bull backed into a corner protecting a litter in this fight. She is NOT ready to ride off into the sunset rather, I believe she puts forth a highly effective game plan on her way to a decision victory.

Lemos +205

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my releases for this fight card there or go to Ga,nLou.com to access the podcast.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Serbia: Beatdown in Belgrade

Belgrade, Serbia hosts its first UFC Fight Night with the headline fight being local fighter Uros Medic taking on American mixed martial artist Daniel Rodriguez.

The fight slate offers a full house of rabid Serbian fans thirteen bouts populated with a highly international set of athletes arriving from some seventeen countries. Twelve local/regional athletes will have the honor of fighting in front of a crowd that is looking for violence.

Unfortunately, and similar to last week, nine of the thirteen bouts on this card are lined with the favorite -250 or higher!  I will be measured in releases with this card.

Last week Mike Davis got out wrestled by a dynamically equipped wrestler however, Nurullo Aliev, the wrestler who defeated Davis put absolutely no damage on him nor did he try to ‘fight.’ He wrestled.

The second release was for the ‘main event to start round 2’ -250 which was a winner. I tied that side to MacKenzie Dern -198, Dern competes in UFC 330 August 15th against Canadian Gillian Robertson. That parlay pays +110 should it come to fruition, and I believe that’s in fact what will transpire.

On to Belgrade!

Uros Medic -365 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +300 Welterweight (170lbs.) Main event

Thirteenth ranked welterweight Daniel Rodriguez is a street fighting man.

Groomed for fighting in the streets of Los Angeles and it’s prison system, ‘DRod’ as he is called, has no fear…. of anything.

He’s competed in three separate divisions in mixed martial arts and as a welterweight in the UFC he’s accrued a 10-4 record against pedigreed, worthy talent.

Rodriguez is a purple belt in BJJ but grappling aside, DRod wants to kick, punch, elbow and knee his way into finishing opponents. Four of DRod’s ten victories in the UFC have come via finish.

Rodriguez will own a three inch reach advantage, and the southpaw is six years the elder athlete in this fight at the ripe age of thirty-nine.

One aspect of this confrontation is that in July of 2025 Rodriguez was scheduled to fight however he was in Mexico and was forced to spend several months in prison.

The lack of appropriate training, the lack of substantial nutrition and the time spent there had to have taken it’s toll on a thirty-nine year old athlete. It is fair to wonder how Rodriguez will respond to the intensity of a UFC battle even after having some time (perhaps not appropriate time) to recover and restore his fighting physique and mentality appropriately.

Uros Medic is fourteenth ranked in the division. After his last victory, he made the call out for a UFC event to be held in Serbia, and the UFC granted that wish.

Medic, a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an orange belt in Judo sports an 8-3 tally in UFC competition. He competed against worthy competition and enters this bout off an impressive finish of Texan Goeff Neal.

Medic is also a southpaw, so both of these guys being left handed scrappers will add a degree of oddity to this fight as two lefties competing against one another is relatively uncommon and it sets up to be potentially an awkward fight.

Once this bout starts, look for the forward pressure of Medic to clash immediately with the frenetic pace that Rodriguez wants to impose upon the native Serbian.  Like two male rams clashing on the side of the mountain, these two fighters will each take the fight directly to the other with the sole purpose of leaving the other quivering on the canvass.

Medic’s six year age advantage must be considered as well the fact he fights at home against an American that must make the trip into Serbia then prepare his body and mind for the weight cut and finally the competition.

As is often the case, the UFC chose Medic’s opponent carefully and with the express interest of offering Medic a fighter he can handle as well one he may finish in order to stir excitement into the Serbian crowd.

Medic, by the way, has had his last five bouts (4-1 record) end in the first round.

Tough spot for DRod.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -200

Strong lean over

Vlasto Cepo -280 vs. Gil Urbina +235 Middleweight (185lbs)

With another chalk laden fight slate we’ll take to the parlay position as we did last week.

In this fight the ‘subject’ is American fighter Gil Urbina who is 1-3 in UFC competition. Urbina holds advantages in UFC experience and height and is a very active striker who lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute while accepting 4.65.

Urbina does offer some wrestling aptitude and is able to execute the take down however his strength, his strike defense and his suspect chin make him an easy mark for a local debuting power striker.

In Cepo we get the aforementioned pumped up power striker.

Cepo is able to compete in front of his home countrymen for this debut and against a target in Urbina who has been knocked out by the middle of the second round in three of his last four bouts.

This fight is designed to offer the Serbian fans a local fighter who is in position to shine and should perform as expected against a fighter in Urbina who is game and willing, but who is also ill equipped to fend of the force from this Serbian slugger.

Parlay time:

Cepo -280 to MacKenzie Dern -198

(Derm fights Gillian Robertson on UFC 330 August 15) +104

Please note: This column holds Dern -198 as the second leg of a parlay (Ankalaev/Guskov starts round 2) from last week’s column which pays +110. Clearly I favor Ms. Dern in her bout against the Canadian Robertson.

Friday late morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch all my final releases for this card there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Abu Dhabi Ankalaev vs. Guskov: Russian Roulette?

The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi UAE this weekend to export their brand to the fight frenetic Muslim world. Abu Dhabi is becoming a regular stop for the UFC as they attract great crowds for the events as well there is a business camaraderie between the leadership there and the UFC.

This event will utilize the large cage, and a full house will witness the intended violence. We have thirteen schedule bouts of which eight will be held in the higher weight classes of Welterweight on up. These larger men produce the highest finish rates in the UFC, so we witness the effort to export UFC violence to the UAE.

There are seven fights on this card where the favorite is lined at least -310, in essence bringing total wagerable fights (outside of props and totals) to eight bouts, there are also a handful of fights where there exists great advantage from a youth standpoint.

Understanding age, size, travel, and location of the fight slate is always foundational in my handicapping process.

Last week Jose Delgado +100 overcame a steamed prospect in Austin Bashi. Bashi was hit by the so called ‘sharp’ gambling people right before they dropped the puck on this fight moving Delgado into plus price territory. Delgado awarded Bashi his PhD. In MMA we tote a unit into our yearly bankroll.

Magomed Ankaleav -550 vs. Bogdan Guskov +430 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Ninth ranked light heavyweight Guskov steps in on relatively short notice to take advantage of the opportunity to climb the rankings with a victory over the number two ranked and former champion in Ankalaev.

Guskov takes the place of Kalil Roundtree, he enters this fight after a draw to former champion Jan Blachowicz after winning four straight bouts.

Guskov is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a Master of Sport in MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Boxing. He is strong, determined and he utilizes a forward pressing attack where engagement with the opponent is mandatory for of Guskov’s eighteen wins, all are via finish.

That being stated, this is a substantial step up in class for Guskov, he too takes this opportunity on without the benefit of a full training camp.

Former champion Ankalaev, currently ranked number two in the division is also highly versed in fighting for he holds an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.

While most Russian fighters excel in grappling, sambo and wrestling Ankaleav utilizes more of a pressing striking and kicking attack to earn his wages. Of his twenty wins, ten have come via the KO and ten via decision. Unusually for a Russian athlete in the UFC, Ankalaev holds no wins via submission.

This fight makes out to be a war that will be waged on the feet for fifteen of Guskov’s victories in MMA have come via the KO/TKO while ten have come that way for Ankalaev. Ankalaev’s ten decision wins point more to the elite level of adversary he has competed against as opposed to any lack of finishing ability in my judgement.

Once this fight begins Ankalaev’s size, might and experience will be the tells against an athlete in Guskov who has been pressed into this opportunity based on UFC need as opposed to Guskov’s own merits.

This will be a one sided fight after a relatively competitive first round.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -155

As a handicapper, my analysis of this card is that it was put together with the sole purpose of serving a proud, financially active and involved Saudi demographic. I hate to state the obvious but the overwhelming mismatch fights on this card force the opportunity searching handicapper to have fewer fight to analyze for profit.

One consideration is to select four or five area combatants that are heavy chalk then throw them into a round robin and bet each in 2 and 3 team sets.

I however rarely bet that way so for our purposes let’s execute the following future parlay ourselves.

Main Event,

Ankalaev/Guskov starts Round 2 -250 To MacKenzie Dern -198; +110 (DraftKings)

(Dern fights 8-15 vs. Gillian Robertson)

Total in Ankalaev/Guskov Fight: 2.5 -145 Under

Nurullo Aliev -220 vs. Mike Davis +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Aliev is set up for shine in front of his peeps as he is a vice grip Tajikistani wrestling/sambo force entering this battle undefeated professionally at 11-0.

Should this fight go Aliev’s way we’ll witness the Tajik fighter take Davis down immediately then control him from top position on his way to an eventual decision or perhaps if lucky, a finish. That’s what many feel will occur in this fight.

Myself, I handicap a lethal, pent up fighting professional in Mike Davisa who’s wrestling is so much more acute than many understand to be like a coiled cobra in this situation.

He’s not had to utilize wrestling much because he sports hands or fury. He is a slick, competent power boxer along with holding underestimated wrestling acumen. That wrestling, specifically his take down defense must allow Davis to navigate this fight into the later rounds where his experience and technical striking ability will begin to produce effect.

Mike Davis is an underestimated razor blade and in a situation like this, I trust him to fight for my dollar.

Mike Davis +190

Total in this fight is not yet released, nor is the Points Handicap which is a betting tool I utilize religiously.

Friday when the ‘Bout Business Podcast comes out; I’ll highlight all my approaches to this fight and there are many.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast UFC Du Plessis vs. Usman: Gorilla warefare

I drove up to Las Vegas for the weekend. Will be watching the fights at O’Aces with industry chaps Saturday night.

Let’s Fight:

Parlay: Ko -198/Du Plessis -215 1u returns 1.20u

Parlay: Delgado -110/Makhachev -340 2u returns 2.98u

Future Wager: Makhachev to be Welterweight Champion 12/31/26 -115  2.30u to earn 2.0u

Cannonier+3.5pts. +120 1.0u returns 1.20u

a very conservative approach this week.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Usman vs. Du Plessis: French Inhaler

Oklahoma City is the host city for this week’s UFC LV120 event. The fight card has eleven bouts scheduled after a frantic couple of weeks where the event has lost three fight matchups.

Unusually for the APEX, there are five fights scheduled with combatants weighing 170lbs. and above. The chances of finishing the other opponent is strongest within these weight classes.

We also will witness five bouts where there exists a five year youth advantage and in seven bouts, a fighter from outside the country must travel into Las Vegas and compete against an American fighter where travel, weight issues and visa concerns should not be an issue.

Last week Mario Bautista and Max Holloway both earned for digital readers so we enter this card on a tremendous heater….let’s keep it runin!

We track actual releases here not overall thoughts… as an aside.

Dricus Du Plessis -260 vs. Kamaru Usman +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Usman is the former welterweight champion who at the ripe old age of thirty-nine has decided to try once again to find relevance in a division where the men are stronger, younger, and larger than he.

This will be Usman’s fourth fight since 2023 where he pivoted from the 170 pound welterweight division for a loss to Leon Edwards then jumped up to Middleweight to be dominated by Kamzat Chimaev before taking a little time off to refocus.

In his most recent bout, Usman fought a welterweight battle against Joaquin Buckley last year where he wiped the floor with the fighter from St. Louis who is wrestling void!

Now after a year and a half Usman returns to the larger middleweight division to face off against its former champion in DDP.

DDP is seven years younger than Usman and as importantly he has taken only a nominal amount of damage in his career while Usman, a professional mixed martial artist since 2012 has many battles under his belt along with plenty of fight damage to haul into this main event and that’s before we even mention the damage he has accrued to his knees.

This will be a difficult matchup for Usman who has a tremendous wrestling acumen, but those two wobbly knees may well make execution of said wrestling prowess very difficult, especially against a guy in DDP that has been focusing on his wrestling in preparation of this battle.

DDP arrives to this fight close to the prime of his career where Usman enters this fight hoping to find a lucky submission in order to make one last run at middleweight.

While I have tremendous respect for Kamaru Usman and his body of UFC work it appears to me that rather than the UFC having to direct Usman to the retirement discussion, they’ll allow DDP to do that for them for while this fight will begin in competitive fashion the longer it goes the more I see Usman slowing and eventually showing his age and the accumulation of attrition that his body has undergone over almost two decades of world class wrestling/UFC competitions.

Total in this fight: 3.5 Over -190

Lean to the Over for DDP’s wrestling is nominal and the proud old Usman is not likely to go out of this one easily.

Jose Delgado -115 vs. Austin Bashi -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Bashi is a decorated and renown world class wrestling talent who has transitioned into MMA.

14-1 professionally, Bashi is 1-1 in UFC competition easily dominating John Yannis after being schooled by a well-rounded striker/wrestler in Christian Rodriguez in his debut fight in the UFC.

The good news for Bashi is that he fought a competent Rodriguez to a decision loss as well this athlete is a quick learner and is accelerating in mixed martial arts competence especially in the striking department quickly.

Jose Delgado steps into this fight 3-1 in UFC competition, he’s faced well more diverse and talented competition as well he’ll own height, reach and size advantages over the short sawed-off Bashi.

Delgado trains at Phoenix’s MMALab a team rife with world class wrestling/grappling talent so competing against Bashi in this spot will surely be a challenge but nothing more strenuous that whet he see’s daily in training.

Delgado’s size, reach, power, and well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry separates him here from the novice Bashi and while money has tricked in on Bashi the price on Delgado has transitioned from -170 at open to -115 current.

That signals an immediate buy on Delgado -115

Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -180

Strong lean Over

Friday the white hot ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my final; releases for this fight cards there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

‘Bout Business Podcast UFC 329: When Irish eyes are swollen

Day got away from me as I had numerous video appearances. These bets will be no suprise th those that tunes into my numerous appearances this week. As a backup here are the official GambLou.com releases for UFC 329:

-Holloway ITD -120 1u

-Holloway -205 2.05u to win 1u

-Main event does NOT start 5 -310/ Riley -218 1.08/1.00u

-Fiziev starts 2/Bautista +135 1u to return 2.15u

-Pimlett +135 1.0/1.35u

-Steveson/Ellison starts 2 ++275 .35u

I may have add on’s day of fight stay tuned

ADD:                            Yanez -385/McKinney-Green starts Rd 2 +280 .50u returns 1.25u                                                                                                         

 

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 329 Holloway vs. McGregor: When Irish eyes are swollen

This week’s UFC 329 is highlighted by the return of Conor McGregor who takes on Max Holloway in a rematch thirteen years in the making. Then they fought at 145lbs and Saturday their fight is ‘scheduled’ for 170lbs. in the welterweight division.

T-Mobile in Las Vegas will host the event that features fourteen bouts to be waged in the large thirty foot octagon and in front of a packed house.

Five fights feature athletes travelling into the states top compete against fighters from the USA, so home turf may offer advantage in those fights as well there are five fights that will be waged in the higher weight classes (170 lbs. and above) where finishes are more frequent than in the lower divisions.

Lastly, in a fight that will last less than 120 seconds, Gable Stevson makes his UFC debut, Stevenson is a world class Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling who will decimate the mannequin they have placed before him in that matchup. 

Time to make some hay!

Max Holloway -220 vs. Conor McGregor +190 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Thirteen years ago these two tussled at 145lbs. McGregor won in a decision against a young, skinny, green Max Holloway who was in his fourth UFC fight.

Flash forward to today and the paths each man has taken to get here are drastically different.

For McGregor, we understand the unique brilliance, the deft footwork, the power, and the simple mental majesty by which he overtook the featherweight division in the UFC then eventually the UFC as a whole.

However, despite the formidable body of work he left us with prior to this fight, it must be mentioned that Conor last fought five years ago which was his second devastating loss in a row to one Dustin Poirier, this time in in round one because of a broken bone in his leg.

McGregor’s last five years have been colorful to say the least. While out of the cage he’s rampaged through the headlines. His chronology is heavily marked by numerous episodes with the law, the courtroom as well he’s had to defend himself in the courtroom against many forms of accusation.

Further, and as importantly, in fighting history itself, one thing has proven to be an absolute fact, that once a man with little to no means is able to propel himself (or herself) through their own immense talent, diligence, and dedication to the pinnacle of the fighting profession that the attainment of that goal, once so foreign to them comes back to corrode them comprehensively because of what the fruits of their labor provide them.

Check fighting history, save for Umar Nurmagomedov and Rocky Marciano no other all time great fighters have been able to walk away from the ring or cage without compromising their own legacy.

It’s history.

Fighters need edge and desperation to gain their reputation.

What they must avoid and what truly corrodes their mind, body and eventually their skill is what the exact success that fighting provides them.

Private jet transportation, silk sheets, Veuve Clicquot and a yes to any question they ask. Yes, once fighters achieve their goal of attaining a title and beyond like McGregor had, then the real adversity begins.

McGregor is today’s textbook example of this. He’s now thirty-seven years old, has not fought in five years and comes in off two loses at that!

McGregor’s mind is sharp no doubt, but I assure you his body will not be able to execute what his mind will try to direct it to.

I expect McGregor to miss weight in this fight and do so on purpose for he is not only keenly unprofessional, but he also understands that the pressure to make this fight will be such that there is no way Max (who has never competed at any weight higher than 155lbs.) his camp or anyone involved with this production will allow the fight to be cancelled.

Yes, McGregor is mentally crafty, and that’s how he can play his mental warfare on Max by making him accept the fight at a weight class other than 170lbs. I believe this is exactly what McGregor will do as it is his way of gaining an edge.

His mind remembers but in the end, all his tricks and magic will not be able to save the thirty seven year old former addict from his trivial pursuit.

We must also take into consideration that Max Holloway has been active, he’s coming off bouts against Gaethje, Topuria, Poirier and Oliviera that absolute elite of the lightweight division.

Max has been competing; he will be able to carry the 170lbs. and carry it effectively into the later rounds of this fight because of his dedication and drive as well because he has stayed active in the game during these last five years while Conor was busy making headlines.

Once the bell for round one rings, McGregor will come out firing fresh, furious and with frenetic pace but he’ll have six and a half minutes to perform, for after that McGregor’s mind will realize what his abused body will be telling him…..that he is able to recall how to fight in world class fashion however that he is simply unable to physically execute that level of fighting any longer.

The mind remembers, but the body just can’t execute anymore.

Come Saturday night I believe Max Holloway will present the brash cocky Irishman a ‘Proper’ send off. 

Max Holloway via and KO/Sub/DQ -125 DraftKings

Total in this fight 2.5Rds Under -130

Strong lean Under

Cory Sandhagen -145 vs. Mario Bautista +125 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Rematch!

This second go round for these two will be a much more competitive fight as then, Bautista took the fight against a ranked Sandhagen on short notice and as a debuting UFC athlete.

Fourth ranked bantamweight Sandhagen trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s got a Taekwondo background supplemented with a brown belt in BJJ, but Sandhagen is also able to utilize his tall, long frame effectively on the feet for he is athletic and sports effective strike evasion to go with his diversity of strikes and kicks which he accrues via volume as opposed to power.

Sandhagen’s grappling is elite and he’s been in the octagon with the absolute elite of the division. Sandhagen is a legitimate top five athlete at bantamweight.

For the fifth ranked Bautista, this rematch has been the fight he has been yearning for over the course of the last several years. A black belt in BJJ with a foundation in wrestling and boxing, Bautista is your true diligent grinding Mexican fighter.

He has an iron will, a great diversity of offensive attack as well he sports solid wrestling acumen. Bautista is able to overwhelm opponents with his positive 1.32 significant strikes per minute then fold in his world class wrestling/grappling prowess (a trait of all MMALab athletes) into the mix.

Sandhagen will be the taller, longer man in the cage, but Bautista will be the more compact, powerful player. Bautista’s focus on stepping over Sandhagen has been simmering for the last seven years since they first competed and it will be the constant forward pressure that Bautista will apply to Sandhagen throughout this fight that will make the difference here.

This is a stellar opportunity for Bautista to snag Sandhagen’s shine and catapult himself up the rankings and make his case for a title opportunity.

The completeness of Bautista’s mixed martial arts weaponry and more specifically his pressure wrestling/grappling will ultimately separate him from Sandhagen in oh so competitive rematch.

Bautista +125

Total in this fight:  2.5Rds Over -275

This is a stellar fight card that has amazing matchups. For all of my final releases please check out the ‘Bout Business Podcast available anywhere you get your pod’s and at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Azerbaijan Fiziev vs. Torres: Manuel Labor

Baku, Azerbaijan hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night event, a fight card populated with twelve bouts ten of which feature local/regional Muslim athletes that will compete against fighters arriving from across the globe. There is one fight featuring two area combatants as well we get a fight featuring athletes who face off from Columbia against Australia.

They employ a large cage in Azerbaijan as well the crowd there will enjoy twelve hand selected bouts all of which feature male fighters and most of which favor slightly the area participant.

Bouts kick off at 6am PST for the prelims then the main card at 9am PST.

Last week we correctly predicted Manuel Kape to overcome his opponent after a couple of close rounds which is exactly what transpired. We turn our attention now to Baku.

Rafael Fiziev -120 vs. Manuel Torres +100 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Torres is a Mexican finisher.

Since his debut on DWCS he has realized a 6-1 record in the UFC with all six of those wins being first round finishes. Torres has been consistent as his defeat to Ignacio Bahamondes was also via first round submission.

Torres has NEVER fought out of the first round in the entirety of his professional career save for one early fight he had in 2018.

Torres has a Muay Thai background, he employs constant forward pressure designed to lure opponents into the firefight, as well Torres has a granite beard.

Torres’ last four foe’s have prepared him in style and level of competition to be more than competitive in this step up fight against a savant Muay Tahi striker in Rafael Fiziev.

In native Azerbaijani Fiziev, the striking coach at Tiger Muat Thai in Phuket, Thailand we have a dominant local warrior versed in world class Muay Thai and supplemented with a blue belt in BJJ.

Fiziev is 1-4 in his last five, but his defeats were against elite top five competition in the division the likes of which Torres has yet to compete against, as well that sole victory was against Bahamondes, the man who defeated Torres in one round.

Torres will sport height, age and reach advantages over the local Fiziev, however, who Fiziev has competed against must factor into this handicap as well the damage and attrition those bouts levied upon him.

Yes, Fiziev has competed against the higher level of adversary by far, but what and how much have those defeats taken from the thirty-three year old? Meanwhile Torres travels across the world to take on a most dangerous power striker/kicker in his own back yard and with all the locals jeering for Fiziev and against Torres.

This fight figures to be a real barnburner…do not miss this main event.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Abus Magomedov -150 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 Middleweight (185lbs.)

We’ll refer to each of these men in this column by their first names.

Abus is the local fighter who has realized a 4-3 record in the UFC.

Abus can strike and he has a solid wrestling base as do most Russian athletes. Abus has displayed an extremely balanced set of mixed martial arts weaponry for he has an impressive fourteen KO’s followed by eight submission wins and six wins via decision.

Magomedov has competed against three fighters currently ranked in the top seven of the division and despite him losing all three of those scraps, Abus arrives to this fight looking to bounce after a submission loss back in October of last year.

In Polish power puncher Mike O we have an extremely aggressive knockout artist who once competed against the light heavyweights before dropping down to middleweight where he has realized a 6-4 record.

Michal has not faced the lethal set of adversary that Abus has, but he has fought several of the same athletes and has realized success. Mike O will do all he can to keep this battle on the feet for he will own advantages in athleticism, toughness, and most especially striking aptitude for he sports a +1.35 significant strike per minute advantage over Abus who holds a negative significant strike differential.

Where Abus may be giving away striking aptitude and athleticism, he will own advantage in his grappling/wrestling, and it is here that Abus will look for build the foundation of this fight ….by taking Mike O to the floor for a roll immediately.

Where this fight takes place will be a great barometer to who is in control here for Mike O is close to inept on the canvas while he will hold great advantage in the striking and leg kick department should this fight remain standing.

This will be a great clash of styles but one where I believe the underdog is more than live!

Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 circa.

I also released this on the GambLou ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast Oleksiejczuk +135, so the number is dropping buy now.

Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -135

Strong lean over

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms or at GambLou.com.

Access all my final releases there.

Enjoy the fights

published 6-23-26