Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 332 Silva vs. Cong: Silva and goad

Salt Lake City, UT hosts this week’s UFC 332 a thirteen fight slate scheduled with early prelims at 1pm PST, prelims at 3PM PST then the main card begins at 5pm PST.

As is getting to be the case with these fight cards, favorites opening at a price of -250 or higher comprised seven of the thirteen bouts making the investment of underdogs quite difficult. Favorites are running just under 70% this year in the UFC.

Seven bouts will also be waged at Welterweight (170lbs.) and above where the finishing rates are premium, so the anticipation is that violence is on the menu for 332.

Last week Brazilian banger Elvis Brener finished a tough journeyman fighter in Josiah Harrel propelling this column’s profitability to 20-15-1 +7.82u.

Let’s keep the momentum rolling!

Natalia Silva -210 vs. Wang Cong -180 Woman’s Flyweight (125lbs.)Title

Women’s flyweight stalwart Valentina Schevchenko relinquished her title to allow the division to evolve while she overcomes a recent physical setback.

In to compete for the vacated title are number one ranked Brazilian fighter Natalia Silva who was Shevchenko’s original opponent and China’s sixth ranked flyweight contender, Wang Cong to steps in on relative short notice.

Cong is 10-1 professionally and after having earned entry into the UFC via the contender series. Cong carries Sanda, kickboxing, and boxing expertise into the fight and while she has a couple of finishes and two submissions over the moderate talent she has faced the fact is that Cong has little power in her strikes and steps up in competition aggressively to take this opportunity.

Cong has earned a 5-1 record with wins over mid-level talent in the division as well as a submission loss early in her UFC tenure to Brazilian Gabriella Fernandes who is a mixed martial artist with nominal grappling prowess.

Cong enters this fight with the understanding that Ms. Silva, her opponent Saturday is well more dangerous than the mid-level set of adversaries that she has faced arriving into this battle.

The number one contender in the division is Silva so rather than compete against Shevchenko she gets Cong. Brazilian Silva holds an abundance of mixed martial arts weaponry as she is a Purple belt in Taekwondo and a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

To Silva this title opportunity means more to her than whom she is competing against for with a win she will be given her chance at Shevchenko.

Silva, twenty-nine has faced far more stringent competition than has the thirty-four year old Cong and she arrives to this fight understanding the opportunity that winning provides her and she arrives off a full fight camp.

Once this fight begins it will be the typical two fly’s battling each other in a barrel for the large cage coupled with small ladies and adroit characteristics often spell a twenty-five minute decision.

In this fight I look for Silva to come out immediately as the aggressor to display to the fans watching as well as Cong herself that in the simplest terms, Cong is not quite ready for a fight of this stature and magnitude.

Catching Silva, who opened at -250 anywhere near the -200 mark spells serious advantage in my judgement.

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -300

Johnny Walker -145 vs. Mic Parkin +125 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

This is a “Don’t judge the book by the cover” fight.

Johnny Walker is a six foot five inch madly athletic mixed martial artist decorated with a brown belt in BJJ.

Walker is uber aggressive and his combination of height, reach and footwork allows Walker to be the more athletic, faster, more powerful fighter in almost every fight he has taken since he has arrive to the UFC.

Walker is at home and most dangerous standing and competing from distance, but his whole body or work has been competing against light-heavyweights.

Saturday Walker steps up to the heavyweight division for a tussle against an English bloke who has accrued a 4-1 tally against moderate UFC heavyweight competition.

What is paradoxical in this fight is that Walker must, and I say must protect his ‘Achilles heel’ which is his fragile chin, for Walker has a balsa wood beak.

He’s been dusted by less powerful light heavyweights than he’ll face Saturday against heavyweight Parkin a man who will enter the cage at a minimum of 265 pounds.

Walker will be the faster more adroit athlete in the cage, however if he is not focused and tries to stand power shot to power shot with Parkin he may well be crumpled.

Parkin arrives to this fight off a loss to journeyman Marcin Tybura but the fact that Parkin is well rounded, carries power and has tasted the effect of heavyweight strikes/kicks tells me that Parkin should not be judged by his body type rather, Parkin should be viewed as a most dangerous opponent for Walker.

Walker will be greased lighting early in this fight however should it transpire into the second round then Walker will need to ensure that he does not allow Parkin to back him up with pressure, enter the pocket, or for that matter capture the clasp for any inside fighting or grappling/wrestling will be to the favor of the naturally larger Parkin.

Johnny Walker opened +157 for this fight and has been bet to current pricing of Walker -145!

Walker who is the beneficiary of his last two fights is being overestimated here by the marketplace as he is a fighter one wants to consider when he is priced the underdog because Walker the favorite…. is a load.

Parkin +125

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -200

Strong lean Over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all Podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases there!

Enjoy the battles and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

Fight Night paris: Hooker vs. Parnasse: Nursultan of Swing

Paris, France is the host city for his week’s UFC Fight night production.

This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts highlighting an international set of combatants many of whom arrive to face the nine French athletes that will be competing on this slate.

Only five of the thirteen bouts are lined competitively, which is getting to be the case as the UFC continues to flood its roster with low end, unqualified and inexperienced athletes.

Last week favorites realized an 8-3 result pushing their results to a staggering 249-97-10 a 70% rate. Traditionally favorites win at about a 63% clip.

Regression? Let’s hope so, and soon.

Last week we banked the first leg of a two fighter parlay as Su Mudaerji won a decision against Alex Perez.

Su -215 in pocket provides readers with firm advantage on Arman Tsarukyan who is currently priced -380 (Tsarukyan fights Maurico Ruffy 9-18) as we hold Tsarukyan tickets at a net price of -115!

On to Paris

Dan Hooker + 400 vs. Salahdine Parnasse -500 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Parisian Parnasse makes a main event headline spot in his UFC debut.

Unusual as that appears, the fact is Parnasse arrives to the UFC fairly well credentialed after having earned two titles in KSW at featherweight and lightweight.

He is trained in boxing, BJJ and Mauy Thai and is a highly athletic fighter who uses movement, angles and grappling all to his advantage in fights.

Parnasse as a mixed martial artist stands 23-2 with eight wins via KO seven via submission and another eight via decision.

The one issue I can uncover about Parnasse is that his level of competition is quite inadequate so Hooker, his opponent sets up as a substantial step up in competition based on the elites Hooker has traded against.

In from Australia is the aforementioned Dan ‘the Hangman’ Hooker to try to take the steam away from Parnasse’s Parisian debut. Hooker is currently the organizations twelfth ranked lightweight.

Hooker is a grizzled UFC veteran who has competed for better than a decade against the top talent in the lightweight division of the UFC.

Hooker’s motive is singular in purpose. Arrive to the cage, provide his adversary with an all out stand up war and hope the he, Hooker is the man who remains standing when the dust clears.

After defeating a ranked contender in Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot, Hooker has dropped his last two bouts to elite lightweight talent in Benoit Saint-Denis and Arman Tsarukyan.

Hooker will hold height and reach advantages as well he’s been the fighter that has competed against the more staunch competition.

Parnasse though inexperienced against UFC level competition is lightning fast, offers diversified fight weaponry and is eight years the younger combatant in this fight.

Hooker has been enlisted by the UFC to make this fight with the Frenchman in order to determine if Parnasse can cut the Poupon or not.

Hooker, who is closer in fight years to forty than his actual thirty-six years is more than up for this challenge despite the betting market investing Euro’s on a fighter I regard as relatively risky as a favorite here, Parnasse.

Parnasse will look to make an instant impression on the UFC with a sensational victory but is that and can that add to the pressure for this twenty-seven year old fighter stepping up in class and fighting in front of his fellow countrymen?

Parnasse has finished his last five opponents in a row and now steps up to be tested by a legitimate top fifteen UFC lightweight.

Somehow, someway I believe Hooker can make a fight of this!

Total in this fight stands: 3.5Rds Under -260

Fares Ziam -155 vs. Axel Sola +135 Lightweight co main event

This is a battle between Ziam from Lyon, France, and Sola from Nice, France.

Both of these lightweights are similar in height, reach and age, the difference between these two is that Sola is a southpaw which will add some complexity to this French fracas.

Ziam enters this fight off a loss to Tom Nolan while Sola corrected his loss to Mason Jones two fights back with a victory over Brazilian Ishmail Bonfim in his last outing.

Both of these men carry high risk/reward into this fight for the victor will more than likely be ranked and the loser will need to put more victories together in order to earn their way into the top fifteen.

Ziam has the UFC experience and he’s the more fluid moving well rounded fighter while Sola is a mean, aggressive, junk yard dog who needs to convert any fight into a filthy, a grimy brawl.

I handicap Sola to be the more forceful, stronger man in the cage and believe this price should be lined closer to a pick-em.

In a fight that could be the fight of the night, I’ll advise an investment in Axel Sola +140 to upset Fares Ziam this weekend in Paris.

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com.

Catch my final releases for this week’s card there.

Enjoy the fights from France and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 330 Makhachev vs. Garry: Russian roulette

The City of Brotherly ‘Shove,’ Philadelphia, PA. hosts this week’s UFC 330.

The fight slate is populated with twelve bouts which shall be held in a large thirty foot octagon in front of a frantic Philly fan base. The card features only a couple of area athletes, which is relatively unusual.

There is one Philly fighter facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete (Wells vs. Oralbai) and one bout where a Pennsylvanian athlete (Dustin Stolzfus) faces a fighter from Maryland in Mansur Abdul-Malik.

We will witness six domestic athletes facing fighters that must travel into the country to compete and eight of the scheduled twelve fights feature athletes weighing 170lbs. and above.

Higher weigh classes deliver finish rates so we can see that the organization is looking to deliver fantastic finishes. Five of the eight fights at those higher weights are lined with a total of 1.5Rds proving the potential for exciting finishes.

Last week Amada Lemos did in fact ‘fight for our money’ as she put out a great effort. Unfortunately, it was not good enough to get her hand raised.

We move forward into this card looking to get back onto the winning track!

 

Islam Makhachev -330 vs. Ian Machado Garry +285 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Ian Garry is an Irish copycat of Conor McGregor only without the finishing ability and charisma of the former UFC legend.

Garry does possess a black belt in Judo to compliment his deft fluid footwork and his always running mouth. While Garry’s power does not intimidate anyone in the division, his speed, fluidity of movement, defensive dominance and pitter patter volume striking allow him to shuck and jive his way though most dangerous fights and even into this one.

Garry is a decision machine when he has things going his way as proven by the fact that his last six bouts, all victories have each been decided by decision.

Garry’s mouth is well more poignant than is his fighting but there is a clear path of victory here for the Irish blowhard…..the pitter/patter shuck and jive decision win.

Garry’s athleticism and ability to use his feet as well as anyone in the UFC will be the tools he must rely upon to have any chance to win this fight for he MUST not allow his vice grip Russian opponent to clasp onto him. Garry in anything but freeform space is in real trouble in this matchup.

Islam Makhachev may be one of the most dominant mixed martial artists in the history of the UFC and with a victory here solidifies his claim to be one of the most accomplished UFC athletes of all time.

Makhachev will be the slighter man in the cage Saturday as Garry will be five inches the taller man, he’ll hold a five inch reach advantage in this fight, and he is eight years the younger man.

If Garry can float like a butterfly and pop like a pansy for twenty five minutes, maintain a safe distance from this Russian vice grip and force this fight into the late rounds he absolutely has a chance to win this fight.

For Champion Makhachev this fight simply revolves around how long it takes him to cut the cage, clasp onto the brash Irishman, drag him to the canvas then control him from top position on his way to greasing Garry into the mat.

Garry will be the flashy faster rabbit early in this battle and Makhachev will be the tortoise force pursuing the speedster in meticulous, calculated fashion.  

In order to win a championship, a fight needs to be won and eventually Garry be forced to try to engage in his kicking/striking if he wants to win this fight.

It’s then when Makhachev will capitalize on that mistake in tactic and shoot to clasp onto the Irishman, ground him, then mark him up with punches, elbows and ground and pound.

Makhachev opened -300 in this title fight and is currently -340 at Circa.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -180

MacKenzie Dern -220 vs. Jillian Robertson +190 Woman’s Strawweight (115lbs.)

Robertson is a Canadian athlete who enters this fight after defeating her last five opponents, three via submission which as a black belt in BJJ she is apt at, and two via TKO as she is decent throwing hands also.

Robertson’s level of competition faced however is not elite and with this step up in mixed martial arts class she will get a taste of fighting someone with world class BJJ skill.

MacKenzie Dern is the daughter of Wellington Dias a multiple time BJJ champion in Brazil. Since diapers Dern’s been competing and winning BJJ world tiles.

Once in the UFC she needed to incorporate striking and strike defense into her weaponry and while she’s still in development there, her grappling and submission game are on a level all their own in the whole of women’s MMA.

When this fight begins it will be Dern who will control the striking and eventually the ground for while both ladies believe they can excel there, the fact is that Robertson is giving away too much skill across the board in this fight. I believe this is a very advantageous spot for MacKenzie Dern.

Dern -220

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -220

Lean Over

Friday my final releases will be available on the ‘Bout Business Podcast. Catch it wherever podcasts are offered or on my webpage, GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Usman vs. Du Plessis: French Inhaler

Oklahoma City is the host city for this week’s UFC LV120 event. The fight card has eleven bouts scheduled after a frantic couple of weeks where the event has lost three fight matchups.

Unusually for the APEX, there are five fights scheduled with combatants weighing 170lbs. and above. The chances of finishing the other opponent is strongest within these weight classes.

We also will witness five bouts where there exists a five year youth advantage and in seven bouts, a fighter from outside the country must travel into Las Vegas and compete against an American fighter where travel, weight issues and visa concerns should not be an issue.

Last week Mario Bautista and Max Holloway both earned for digital readers so we enter this card on a tremendous heater….let’s keep it runin!

We track actual releases here not overall thoughts… as an aside.

Dricus Du Plessis -260 vs. Kamaru Usman +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Usman is the former welterweight champion who at the ripe old age of thirty-nine has decided to try once again to find relevance in a division where the men are stronger, younger, and larger than he.

This will be Usman’s fourth fight since 2023 where he pivoted from the 170 pound welterweight division for a loss to Leon Edwards then jumped up to Middleweight to be dominated by Kamzat Chimaev before taking a little time off to refocus.

In his most recent bout, Usman fought a welterweight battle against Joaquin Buckley last year where he wiped the floor with the fighter from St. Louis who is wrestling void!

Now after a year and a half Usman returns to the larger middleweight division to face off against its former champion in DDP.

DDP is seven years younger than Usman and as importantly he has taken only a nominal amount of damage in his career while Usman, a professional mixed martial artist since 2012 has many battles under his belt along with plenty of fight damage to haul into this main event and that’s before we even mention the damage he has accrued to his knees.

This will be a difficult matchup for Usman who has a tremendous wrestling acumen, but those two wobbly knees may well make execution of said wrestling prowess very difficult, especially against a guy in DDP that has been focusing on his wrestling in preparation of this battle.

DDP arrives to this fight close to the prime of his career where Usman enters this fight hoping to find a lucky submission in order to make one last run at middleweight.

While I have tremendous respect for Kamaru Usman and his body of UFC work it appears to me that rather than the UFC having to direct Usman to the retirement discussion, they’ll allow DDP to do that for them for while this fight will begin in competitive fashion the longer it goes the more I see Usman slowing and eventually showing his age and the accumulation of attrition that his body has undergone over almost two decades of world class wrestling/UFC competitions.

Total in this fight: 3.5 Over -190

Lean to the Over for DDP’s wrestling is nominal and the proud old Usman is not likely to go out of this one easily.

Jose Delgado -115 vs. Austin Bashi -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Bashi is a decorated and renown world class wrestling talent who has transitioned into MMA.

14-1 professionally, Bashi is 1-1 in UFC competition easily dominating John Yannis after being schooled by a well-rounded striker/wrestler in Christian Rodriguez in his debut fight in the UFC.

The good news for Bashi is that he fought a competent Rodriguez to a decision loss as well this athlete is a quick learner and is accelerating in mixed martial arts competence especially in the striking department quickly.

Jose Delgado steps into this fight 3-1 in UFC competition, he’s faced well more diverse and talented competition as well he’ll own height, reach and size advantages over the short sawed-off Bashi.

Delgado trains at Phoenix’s MMALab a team rife with world class wrestling/grappling talent so competing against Bashi in this spot will surely be a challenge but nothing more strenuous that whet he see’s daily in training.

Delgado’s size, reach, power, and well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry separates him here from the novice Bashi and while money has tricked in on Bashi the price on Delgado has transitioned from -170 at open to -115 current.

That signals an immediate buy on Delgado -115

Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -180

Strong lean Over

Friday the white hot ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my final; releases for this fight cards there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

‘Bout Business Podcast UFC 329: When Irish eyes are swollen

Day got away from me as I had numerous video appearances. These bets will be no suprise th those that tunes into my numerous appearances this week. As a backup here are the official GambLou.com releases for UFC 329:

-Holloway ITD -120 1u

-Holloway -205 2.05u to win 1u

-Main event does NOT start 5 -310/ Riley -218 1.08/1.00u

-Fiziev starts 2/Bautista +135 1u to return 2.15u

-Pimlett +135 1.0/1.35u

-Steveson/Ellison starts 2 ++275 .35u

I may have add on’s day of fight stay tuned

ADD:                            Yanez -385/McKinney-Green starts Rd 2 +280 .50u returns 1.25u                                                                                                         

 

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Kape vs. Horiguchi: Ion blaster

After a tremendous show of National unity and mixed martial arts competition we return to the modest Meta APEX facility in las Vegas for this week’s fight card.

Twelve fights populate this slate with talent that ranges from debuting journeymen to talented flyweights in a title eliminator.

APEX productions mean smaller bodies waging war as evidenced by the fact that only two of the twelve take place at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Also only three of these bouts are lines with the favorite under a -200 chalk.

Last week this column dropped 1 unit with my Stevie Garcia straight wager, but the win/win parlay scenario discussed on VSiN by the Books, as well on several VSiN shows last week won and netted 1.70u.

 

Manuel Kape -155 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi +135 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

This fight is a rematch of a 2017 fight won by the then more mature 26 year old Horiguchi who submitted the twenty-three year old neophyte striker in the third round.

Then Kape was young, green, and learning while Horiguchi was three years older but evolutions ahead of Kape when it came to MMA intelligence, weaponry, and tactic.

Now the tables turn and Horiguchi a decorated A-Class Shootist with a 2nd degree black belt in Shotokan Karate returns to take on this old rival as a rejuvenated thirty five year old.

Horiguchi, fifth ranked in the division held great experience advantage in that first fight, now Kape, thirty-two and in his prime fighting years will own the advantages.

Youth, speed, power, athleticism, and arm length all provide the division’s number two ranked Kape edges against the Japanese fighter while in this rematch he gives away nothing in level of adversary faced or UFC experience.

This will be a competitive fight for a couple of rounds until the unorthodox striking acumen and freakish athleticism of Kape begins to expose the proud Japanese warrior who I believe will struggle to close the distance on a fighter in Manuel Kape who is the divisions most dangerous fighter.

Kape -155

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -135

Christian Rodriguez -180 vs. Hyder Amil +155 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Unranked but talented featherweights scrap in this fine matchup of fighting styles.

CRod hit the UFC quickly realizing a 4-1 record out of the gate however once the organization stepped up his level of competition, CRod struggled going 1-3 in his last four bouts. Those fights were all against mid-level unranked opponents save for his last two fights both losses against talent ranked just outside the division’s top eight.

CRod is athletic, has great footwork and is equipped in boxing and wrestling but his power is non apparent, and he can seem to fade as his bouts transpire.

In Hyder Amil we have a pint sized power puncher.

Unusually, Amil will be the taller athlete in the cage Saturday, and he’ll immediately look to engage CRod and force him against the cage where the battering is best for Amil will not try to wrestle or grapple but he will try to injure and maim with his strikes and kicks.

CRod’s youth advantage is real in this fight for he is eight years the younger fighter in this one and will look t5o use his wrestling chops to gain the upper hand.

Amil returns off of some form of injury/malady that affected him in his last couple of fights, both losses to very competent UFC talent and he has vowed to make this fight look much different than his last two.

It’s my opinion that the pricing on this fight is based on CRod’s last couple of off performances and against what I regard as more stringent competition than Amil has faced.

That stated, Amil’s pressure, his power and his bounce post injury may be just the combination he needs to enter this fight and get his hand raised against a fighter in Rodriguez that will struggle to maintain equilibrium on the feet and will try to turn this into a wrestling match.

Amil is a points position. ‘Bout Business for all my final releases Friday.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Vinicius Oliviera -285 vs. Andre Fili +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Fili is a decade’s long UFC talent who holds a 13-12-1 record in the organization.

At thirty  five, many think Fili to be past his prime however based on the performance he put on in his last fight I would have to say that Fili’s talent and fight game is not waning and in fact I find him to be most dangerous in this spot.

He’ll be the more experienced fighter, as well one who is comfortable vying with fighters weighing up to 160lbs. come fight night as most featherweights do.

Fili’s experience, who he has been in against, and his well rounded fight arsenal are more than enough to protect a chin that has been compromised over the course of his duration the UFC.

In Brazil’s Oliviera we have a basic bully.

He’s wildly athletic but that does not translate to precision striking and dedication to plan rather he is explosive but wild and when challenged like in his last fight he can crumple under the pressure.

Oliviera is stepping up from 135lbs bantamweight into the larger featherweight division and despite the difference in physique and athleticism, this has the perfect making to be a great ‘welcome to the featherweight division’ greeting from Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili.

Fili +235 

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Pick-em

Fili Decision for those looking for maximize opportunity. That line is not yet posted.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. We’re white hot after a huge night last week at UFC Freedom 250 so give a listen!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV118 Muhammad vs. Bonfim: Belal bottom blues

The Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas is the host for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.

The fight slate consists of twelve fights to be waged in the Apex’s 25’ octagon and in front of a limited group of attendees.

Of the twelve fights, seven take place at 115, 125 and 135 pounds and only three will be waged at weight classes 170lbs and above.

It’s becoming clear that APEX events host lesser know personalities and smaller bodied fighters which surely, by the numbers reduces the opportunity for violent finishes.

There are nine US fighters populating the card with thirteen athletes having to travel into the states from out of the country. Three fights do feature a fighter from the US who competes against a combatant that must travel into the USA in order to cut weight then compete.

Main event participant Belal Muhammad, Jordan Leavitt, and Chelsea Chandler are the fighters holding some home advantage as each of their foes must travel in from Brazil in order to compete. Advantage US athletes.

Last week we used Alex Perez in his fight against Su Mudaerji as a slight chalk, but the bout was stopped after a damaging kick to the jewels by Su rendered Perez unable to continue.

We’ll tote our momentum forward into this slate of battles.

Belal Muhammad -125 vs. Gabriel Bonfim +105 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Bonfim, one of two brothers competing in the UFC is a fighter with complete skills though no belts, ribbons, or accolades.

Bonfim is a power striker/kicker who is athletic, fluid afoot and highly dangerous for he packs profuse power behind his strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees.

In this battle Bonfim will hold a substantial eight year youth advantage to go with his height and leg reach edge. Bonfim’s grappling/wrestling is pronounced and together with his aggression/size/power makes him a matchup nightmare for almost every welterweight on the roster.

In former champion Belal Muhammad we have a world class wrestling talent. Muhammad has lost his last two fights to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, but he was competitive in each despite the fact that he fought an unintelligent title fight against JDM choosing to strike with a striker as opposed to grinding him out on the canvas with his advance wrestling ability.

In his fight against Machado Garry, Muhammad was simply unable to catch up to the nimble, deft moving Irishman. When forging forward in his deliberate unrelenting wrestling style Muhammad can make a strong motivated adversary eventually look overwhelmed, lost, weak and timid.

When the bell for this fight rings I look for Muhammad, who has not competed in the cage since November of 2025 to immediately turn to his advantage in almost any matchup….his wrestling.

As I have mentioned several times in this column, world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ and while Bonfim is hardly a world class jiu-Jitsu specialist he does fold the specialty into his power striking.

Bonfim will to strive to maintain appropriate distance in order to unleash power hooks, crosses, and knees onto Muhammad as Muhammad forcefully grinds his way inside the pocket to engage in his wrestling.

Muhammad must be able to persevere his way through the furious early Bonfim fire of fisticuff  in the early stages of this fight for that is when Bonfim’s ferocity and striking acumen are most effective.

When Muhammad manages this bout into the third round and beyond we will witness a change of dominance for Bonfim’s burst will begin to wane while the Muhammad’s forward pressure and top control will transition this fight from a relatively competitive one to a relatively noncompetitive one for Muhammad’s ultimate advantage is his ability to never tire and become more forceful as the fight extends.

Yes Muhammad is thirty-seven and giving up eight years to this young Bonfim bomber, but Muhammad’s cardio, his wrestling and his mental strength are all world class assets that will allow him to separate himself from Bonfim as this fight enters the third round and beyond.

This is a terrific spot for Belal Muhammad

Muhammad -120 2u

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -190

Strong lean Over especially if lined 3.5Rds.

Brendan Allen -220 vs. Edmen Shabazyan +180 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main

Shahbazyan, a Black belt in Shotokan Karate is a power striker who trains in Las Vegas at Extreme Couture.

Shahbazyan is tall for the weight class and though he is ill equipped to deal with adversaries displaying world class wrestling/grappling he is well armed to undergo slugfests that take place on the feet as his height, reach and distance control are exemplary.

In Brendan Allen we have a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Allen is well balanced as a fighter, but his striking is not to the level of his world class grappling. When Allen chooses to transition his fights from feet to floor his results are outstanding.

When Allen is unable to transition bouts to the basement then his elementary striking becomes an obstacle to overcome. His 47% strike defense and negative strike differential per minute of fighting exemplify the need for Allen to immediately engage in the clinch then transition fights to the floor.

So in this battle we have a striker with relatively inept grappling/wrestling skill taking on a fighter in Allen who is average on the feet but world class on the mat.

Once this fight begins it will be Shahbazyan who will look to touch up the feisty Allen as he works his way into the pocket to clasp.

Meanwhile Allen will look to tackle Shabaz an and ground him as soon a practically possible for on the floor and even worse, off his back Shahbazyan is no match for Allen.

Allen’s been training in elevation with Trevor Whittman in Denver, which is a direct tell that he is working diligently to improve his striking as well continue to develop his cardio.

This is a great spot for Brendan Allen who will control this fight in the second and third rounds by utilizing his grappling prowess, he just needs to manage that first round when Shahbazyan comes out fists flying!.

Allen opened -350 and Shahbazyan money has moved the line to its current price of Brendan Allen -220.

As Roger Dalty sang for the Who, ” I call that a bargain.”

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -185 as well there are some 2.5 Under -165 in the market. Over 1.5 seems a sound consideration.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms; we’ve been on fire lately. Catch the final releases for this card there or at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the

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UFC Perth Della Maddalena vs. Prates: Cigarette …Butt

Perth, Australia is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs. Prates production. The card features twelve fights all populated with an Aussie athlete who will face an adversary that must travel from outside the Country into Australia to compete.

These fights drop at prime time in Perth while the US will tune into preliminary action at 1am PT Saturday while the main event drops at 4am PT. Aussie fight fans are rowdy when the fights are held at unreasonable hours in the early AM so when they can imbibe then take in the battles at prime time in Perth the scene is liable to be crazy!

The UFC will utilize the large cage as well of the twelve bouts seven feature welterweight (170lbs.) or larger men competing which should further fuel the rabid crowd in attendance looking for violence.

Last week Aljamain Sterling +130 proved once again the he is a legitimate threat to featherweight Champion Alex Volkanovski’s title belt when he defeated Youssef Zalal in dominant fashion. The question everyone awaits is will he finally get a chance at the title fight he has earned?

Digital results to date: 8-8-1  -1.0u

Carlos Prates -120 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Prates, currently ranked fifth in a very competitive division is a true character.

Not only is he one of the leaders of Team Fighting Nerds from Brazil but Prates, a chain smoking party boy is as dangerous in the octagon as he is deft on a dance floor.

Prates began his fighting career as a formidable Muay Thai striker. Then early in his youth he began to develop his Jui-Jitsu which provided Prates with a tremendous balance of fight ability for he is able to excel on the feet, pressed against the cage or on the canvas.

Prates, 6-1 in the UFC is long, tall, highly athletic, and very aggressive. His sole loss was three fights back against Ian Machado Garry. Since that setback he has earned decisive victories over fighters now freefalling out of the top fifteen in Geoff Neal and Leon Edwards.

In an ideal set up Prates’ adversary in any fight would choose to stand with him and try to bang it out on the feet.

In number one ranked JDM we have an Aussie scrapper who is extremely durable, highly athletic, and also decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Where Prates uses his length to set up his striking, JDM uses his aggressive forward pressing boxing to engage opponents.

JDM applies constant forward pressure to supplement his combination striking. Where Prates may have the power, JDM possesses the striking volume, forceful forward pressure and durability that will be the determining factor in this fight.

Provided JDM can back Prates up, then this fight becomes most favorable for him however, Prates flamboyant kicking, his flying knees and his own forceful striking will look to meet JDM center cage. From there the fighter backing the other combatant up will control this fight.

JDM has an edge in experience, he’s been in with the champion of the division as well he fights in front of his homies, so he derives advantage in those aspects of this fight.

This will be a classic long, tall striker striving to create damaging strike angles against a forward plodding, determined, workhorse of a bull looking to badger the Brazilian with constant pressure for fifteen minutes.

When this fight turns to the championship rounds it’s my judgement that JDM’s constant pressure, his body attack and his professionalism (he does not drink, smoke or joke during fight camps while Prates drinks, smokes and parties right up to fight time) together begin to take effect on a young athlete who is enamored with his many dynamics as a fighter but is a touch naïve about how to conduct himself leading into a championship level five round fight.

This will be a brilliantly contested fight for the first three rounds then at the bell to round four, JDM will separate his skills and effectiveness from Prates. It is not out of the question the eventually in this fight JDM separates Prates from his consciousness, if that occurs I expect it happens in the last couple rounds of this fight when the nectar and nicotine begin to affect the partyman.

Della Maddalena +100

Steve Erceg -340 vs. Tim Elliott +290 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Flyweight number eleven ranked Tim Elliott arrives to this bout off an injury layoff and a change in camps yet again. Elliott, now thirty-nine is coming off of two fights where he beat ranked fighters who were favored over him.

At his best Elliott is a fantastic grappler, he has a wealth of UFC experience as well he’s been in with the elite of the division for a decade now. Elliott’s greatest asset is his unorthodox approach to fighting for he is completely inconsistent with his movements and fights in a ‘herky-jerky’ style that often confounds and perplexes opposing athletes.

The concern I have for Elliott in this fight revolve around how well he can overcome his recent surgery (at his current age) as well the opponent the UFC has chosen for him should represent a great test.

That opponent is Australian fighter Steve Erceg. Erceg shot to the top of the flyweight rankings just after, as a debutant to the UFC he battled then champion Alexandre Pantoja to a decision loss over five rounds of championship battle.

Erceg competed next against top ranked flyweights Kai-Kara France and Brandon Moreno when he should have probably stepped back and improved his game further against less acute fighters as opposed to biting off more than he could chew so early in his UFC career.

Now after a victory over journeyman Ode’ Osbourne, he receives this test against the eleventh ranked Elliott in Perth.

Erceg is taller, longer and nine years younger than Elliott who travels across the world for this fight after recovering from a major surgery. While Elliott is game, unorthodox, and willing he does have to be able to ‘shuck and jive’ in order to evade incoming damage from Erceg in this fight.

So we have Elliott the more beguiling, savvy, cagey fighter taking on a larger, younger, motivated, well-rounded Erceg who fights in front of his brethren in Australia.

This seems like a tough situation for Elliott. Could the UFC be doing to Elliott and Dariush what they have been doing to other mature UFC athletes (see Gil Burns) in that they are allowing younger hungry fighter retire the aged older generation of UFC athlete.

Erceg should win this fight via one sided decision but at this price this fight is a pass.

Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC Perth there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

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UFC 327 Prochazka vs. Ulberg: Czech…mate!

Miami, FL. Hosts this week’s UFC 327, an event featuring twelve scheduled bouts consisting of well recognized and mostly ranked UFC fighters. There are seven bouts to be held at weight levels of 170lbs. and above so the matchmakers are striving to present violence in Miami as the heavier athletes realize a higher finish rates.

Four of the main card fights highlight larger athletes as well there are five fights scheduled to be waged where one athlete is at least five years younger than their adversary.

Fighters with a youth advantage of six years or greater win their fights at roughly a 63% clip…that rate increases as the age gap widens.

Miami will utilize the large octagon, and it is safe to say the athletes that train in Florida as well the Latino fighters shipping in to compete will hold crowd advantage during their bouts.

One last point is that this fight card features highly competitive bouts as most of these battles are lined at -200 or less to the favorite, I smell some underdogs!

Last week Virna Jandiroba’s size, her experience and her elite grappling together earned her a decision victory over tiny terrorizer Tabitha Ricci which adds another unit of profit to this digital column. We stand 7-7 -.60u on the year.

Let’s Fight!

Jiri Prochazka -125 vs. Carlos Ulberg +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title

Ulberg ships in from Australia’s City Kickboxing club to take this title opportunity.

9-1 in the UFC Ulberg lost his debut then rattled off nine straight wins. Ulberg’s level of competition faced is actually lacking until recently as he has earned victories in his last three fights against top ten competition in the division albeit competition that is not relevant in the division any longer.

Ulberg, a male model in his spare time is a kickboxing specialist who arrives to competition with athleticism, the ability to move fluently on his feet and certain power in his hands. What Ulberg has not seen yet in UFC competition and what he will not see in this fight is an adversary with world class wrestling/grappling prowess for his adversary in this fight will confound Ulberg with his unorthodoxy not his grappling acumen.

Ulberg’s been fortunate to have competed against an ascending level of varying striking talent thus far in his UFC career. In this fight, his level of competition rises to the pinnacle of the division for Jiri Prochazka is a legitimate top two talent in the division who in the last decade has lost only to Alex Pereira, twice.

Ulberg, currently ranked third in the division has a golden opportunity to earn himself a championship belt but I must ask if he is biting off more than he can chew this early in his ascending career?

In Jiri Prochazka we have a Czech warrior who is as unconventional in his training, his fight arsenal, and his approach to war as there is in the organization.

Prochazka is a black belt in Kyokushin which is a Japanese derivative of Karate so his awkward stance, unconventional approach to movement and his tactics in the cage are only matched by his unorthodox approach to life and fighting for this man is truly an original.

When the bell for this fight clangs, we will witness a couple of 6’4” behemoths who will each look to back the other man up with a steady application of stand up striking.

Ulberg, a man whose wrestling/grappling prowess I suspect is lacking will not have to address that specialty in this fight for Jiri is as singularly dimensioned a striker as is Carlos. What Carlos must be aware of is that he is sometimes stale and inactive in fights. He cannot afford to be ‘watching’ in this one!

This fight sets up to be a stand-up battle waged between a calm, levelheaded, matriculated, structured striker in Ulberg against a free flowing, no holds barred improvisational striker in Prochazka.

Both men possess aggression, strength, power, and experience but in this matchup it’s my judgement that Prochazka’s history of world class athletes faced separates him from Ulberg who has faced complimentary talent only.

The substantial step up in class of opponent is the differentiating matter in this handicap and because of this ascent in competition I must lean to Prochazka here for he has proven himself in the division over time.

Monitoring

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -120

Chris Padilla -180 vs. MarQuel Mederos +160 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Padilla jumped on the UFC scene with an impressive victory over favorite James Liontop in his UFC debut.

Padilla then defeated his next two journeyman adversaries before being tested in his last fight by Ismail Bonfim a fighter who has the ‘name’ but not much ‘fighting game’ for it’s Bonfim’s brother that holds the authentic fighting talent in that family.

Padilla enters this fight with great momentum and a good bit of ‘recency’ attached to his price as I handicap this fight. Padilla’s got good feet, he has power in his strikes and he’s a diversely equipped fighter however he takes on an adversary in this fight that is a substantial level of class above what he has competed against to date.

Mederos trains out of the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ.

He’s a gifted, slick striker with deft footwork, power in all limbs and a wrestling/grappling acumen that provides Mederos the appropriate fighting tools to apply in any adversarial situation a fight may present him with.

These two are closely matched but it is the nuanced striking of Mederos his simplicity that forces me to side with him.

Physically Mederos will sport a slight height advantage while Padilla will have arm reach, but this fight will NOT be decided by the physical attributes of each fighter but their will.

This battle boils down to grit, guts, and grime for these two will batter each other with the understanding that a win here may project the victor into the top fifteen of the division, a division steeped with talent.

Padilla, who rides in with some public awareness, opened -150 for this fight. There is bias in his price based on that recency as he now stands -180.

This fight should be priced much tighter for the power, strike defense and grappling of Mederos, who has been relatively absent from the cage for a few months must account for some premium while Padilla’s recent win over Bonfim may be seen as more of an accomplishment by the public than it truly is.

Saturday night Mederos will have the opportunity to move on up the lightweight ladder. He must defeat a confident power puncher in Padilla, and I believe over three long rounds he’ll earn a tough decision victory.

Mederos +160

Mederos points handicap will be released later this week and that wager may make great fiscal sense depending on price….

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -220

Lean Over

 

Curtis Blaydes -125 vs. Josh Hokit +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Simple power punching athlete Josh Hokit has obliterated two straight UFC opponents and now the UFC gives him the opportunity to try to touch glass jawed Curtis Blaydes.

Should he be successful, a win would propel Hokit a fighter the UFC loves and wants to see succeed, into the top of an oh so thin division while it would basically end Blaydes run as a legitimate top five fighter in the division.

The UFC has never liked Blaydes nor his dominant form of wrestling, so they bombard him with young, fast, powerful strikers to try to eliminate him. The issue is that Blaydes is stubborn and one damn accomplished wrestling based mixed martial artist. The cat just won’t go away!

Blaydes level of competition faced and the fact his wrestling is the standard bearer in the division coupled with his angst that he is constantly having to fend off these young up and comers (see Jailton Almeida) is providing him great focus and intensity for this fight.

Blaydes -125 is an absolutely bargain price as he opened -160 which I view as more than attractive and affordable. It’s my position that he will smear Hokit all over the canvass Saturday in a one-sided wrestling display.

Let’s parlay

Blaydes -125 to Tatsuru Taira -180*

 

*Taira faces Flyweight Champion Josh Van May 9th in New Jersey.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all major podcast platforms as well on GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

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UFC Fight Night Seattle Adesanya vs. Pyfer: Puget ground….and pound

Seattle, WA. Hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night an event scheduled for thirteen bouts to be held in the thirty-foot octagon and in front of a wailing Washington crowd.

There are twelve US athletes on the card five of whom are from the immediate Seattle area as well there are two Canadian athletes competing.

The remaining athletes ship in from around the globe. That stated, there is but one fight where an athlete from out of the country must travel into the states to take on a domestic fighter. That’s fight is the Fortune vs. Tybura fight with Tybura shipping in from Poland.

Last week favorites realized a 9-3 result. To date in the UFC favorites stand 76-23 or 76.7%.

Last week this column made three releases that were all favorite positions realizing a net +3.0u.

Let’s keep the momentum going!

Israel Adesanya -140 vs. Joe Pyfer +120 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Fourteenth ranked Pyfer is a twenty-nine-year-old heavy-handed power striking knockout artist who is 15-3 professionally and 6-1 in UFC competition. Pyfer’s finished eleven of fifteen athletes he’s competed against.

He enters this foundational fight off a finish and now takes on a man in Adesanya who has been finished in three of his last four losses over five bouts.

For Pyfer, who sports a modest +.42 significant strike differential, pace will be important in this fight as he must find a way to corner/confront his highly athletic, fluid moving opponent.

Pyfer relies on his strength, power and might in fight. He is seven years the younger fighter which heaps advantage his way however he’ll need to be able to maneuver, cut the cage, and effectively corner his evasive opponent or he will be swinging at air for twenty-five minutes.

Former champion Israel Adesanya believes his championship days are not behind him despite the fact that he’s lost four of his last five bouts albeit to world class mixed martial artists, all who are currently ranked higher than Pyfer is currently.

Adesanya has the class, athleticism, and experience to be able to paint Pyfer’s fence throughout this fight. To do that he must remain fleet footed and direct his offense on Pyfer from distance using diverse angles to launch his strikes/kicks coupled with evasive movement to maintain the appropriate distance he will need to keep the more plodding Pyfer on the outside of the pocket.

While Pyfer does have limited wrestling/BJJ background, he may not choose to use if for it’s expected that this fight will be waged on the feet as well Adesanya sports a sturdy 76% take down defense.

In a stand-up war Adesanya holds advantage provided he is able to utilize fluidity of movement, his ability to evade strikes and raly on his deep championship experience in UFC battles.

For Pyfer his task is much simpler yet maybe more difficult to undertake.

Pyfer must immediately walk Adesanya down, most especially he needs to back him up and force him to expend his most precious commodity, his cardio. In previous fights we have seen Adesanya, now thirty-six show the propensity to tire.

For Pyfer, he must find a way through diligent, forceful, forward pressure to corner the more athletic former champion and immediately begin to reign damaging body shots, leg kicks and power striking onto his which will have the result of muting his athleticism.

Somehow Pyfer, though pressure and/or power punching must sap Adesanya of his will/cardio which will in essence allow these two to fight on par. Should Pyfer be able to eventually drain Issy of his agility then the potential for success later is great for Pyfer’s entering his prime fighting years while Adesanya’s on the outer limit of his.

Taxing Adesanya mentally and physically is the most important aspect of this fight for Pyfer for should he be able to sap just a little of the quickness and fluidity of movement from the old champion then catching up to Adesanya and being able to bludgeon him with those thudding leg kicks and power shots may definitely pay off.

This should be an epic clash of styles as Adesanya’s mobility and volume strike attack will thrive should Pyfer be overly aggressive, plodding and/or deliberate. Should Issy be able to work in space utilizing his dexterity of striking he could dominate this bout.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -125

Mansur Abdul-Malik -125 vs. Yousri Belgaroui +105 Middleweight

Prepare yourselves for a real treat of a striking clash in this battle.

In one corner is Abdul-Malik a talented power striking fighter who has realized a 3-0-1 tally in the UFC albeit against very nominally talented opposition. Abdul-Malik finished three of his UFC opponents and arrives to this standoff with undefeated momentum and the anticipation of what another impressive win will mean for his trajectory inside the division and the organization.

In the opposing corner we have a fighter who trains with Alex Perreira and Glover Teixeira in Connecticut. This fighter is a world class kickboxer who has been developing his mixed martial arts weaponry as he is currently a more singularly dimensioned fighter.

Belgaroui is 8-3 professionally and 1-0 in UFC competition against a formidable foe. His tremendous height (6’5”) allows him to tower over most competition and his arm/leg reach present him substantial advantage in stand-up fights.

Belgaroui who is highly athletic and quick intertwines his length with deft footwork, nimble strike evasion, and straight-out precision punching power to create advantage for him in fights.

We’ve seen little of each of these men other than standing and throwing so that’s exactly the kind of fight I judge will occur. Abdul-Malik will forge forward and try to set up in the pocket to throw power and Belgaroui will attempt to maintain his striking distance in order to batter Abdul-Malik on his way inside to engage.

This fight sets up to be an epic striking war but one where I must favor

Belgaroui +105

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -175

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms or access it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

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