9am PT Preliminary Action drops!
Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the VSiN digital breakdown for UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi.
This card from the UAE kicks off at 9am PST with preliminary fights then the main card drops at 11am PST, so prepare accordingly for a morning full of mauling’s.
This Fight Night slate is scheduled for twelve bouts. The athletes will compete in the large thirty’ cage and background noise will be prevalent as a raucous Saudi/Muslim crowd will jam into the arena to take in the violence.
There is but one woman’s fight on this card which is notable because it is a rarity to get a female fight when the organization travels to the UAE.
Six of our twelve bouts feature men weighing 170lbs and above and if the trend of the last couple of weeks remains intact, then this card too should produce a flurry of frenetic finishes.
There are fewer aged athletes participating in this week’s slate than in the past couple of fight cards as there are but four fighters aged thirty-five and above. Further, the age spreads on this card have tightened considerably as there are only three fights where there exists an age gap larger than five years…. Again, six years’ youth advantage equates to a 64%-win percentage in the UFC fight enthusiasts.
Last week I captured excellent value in the Dan Ige -175 release as he closed -220 however capturing the best of the number is but one aspect of realizing bottom line profitability in sports gaming. The most important aspect however is having the appropriated fighter perform at their best. While Ige performed well, his opponent performed better and earned victory.
Such is the fight game.
It’s time to make a run!
Robert Whittaker -135 vs. Renier de Ritter +115 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
De Ritter, three fights into his UFC career, enters this main event ranked twelfth in the division and off three victories against modestly talented UFC competition.
A decorated world class grappler with only decent striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto his opponent in this (or any) matchup then begin to envelope them with his strength and judo experience.
De Ritters striking is base, the snap on his strikes and his ability to evade strikes is negligible save for the force by which he rushes into opponents to envelope his limbs around them then drag them to the mat.
De Ritter’s plan in any fight is the singular: press opponent against the fence, clutch opponent to maul them down to the mat then gain top position in order to snap a limb, choke the neck, or play the ground and pound game.
This will be the de Ritter blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for his survival because if he is unable to wrangle Whittaker to the canvas, then he is likely to be pieced up by the forceful punches, kicks, elbows, and knees of Whittaker.
Save for a loss to current champion Duplessis in late 2023 which was an off night for Whittaker, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years until he faced formidable grappling talent Kamzat Chimaev in his last battle.
Against the world class grappling pressure applied by Chimaev, Whittaker looked lost and overwhelmed and in short time Chimaev grounded Whittaker then ‘neck cranked’ him into submission.
When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from de Ritter because it is a surety that de Ritter has studied that Chimaev vs. Whittaker tape.
De Ritter will take every measure he can to duplicate Chimaev’s diligent forward pressing aggression, his takedown effectiveness, and submission prowess in order to negate Whittaker’s striking dominance while simultaneously forcing the striker to expend energy defending takedowns as opposed to lighting up the Dutchman with his dukes.
The foundation question for this fight is simply this: Can Whittaker stop the groundings and keep this fight on the feet?
Where this bout takes place will be absolutely proportionate to who is in control for on the feet de Ritter will have little for Whittaker and on the ground in a grovel it will be difficult for Whittaker to compete with the elite grappling talent that is Renier de Ritter despite the fact that Whittaker’s wrestling is competent.
Whittaker opened -180 for this fight and the money to date has flowed in on the challenger.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds pick-em
Shara Magomedov -300 vs. Marc Andre’ Barriault +250 Middleweight (185lbs)
Magomedov is a Dagestani fighter who lost an eye sometime during his fighting career. He is a wildly popular fighter in the Muslim world, and I say that because he seems to be unable to compete outside of his home country for reasons not pertinent to this column.
When he does compete it is usually against an opponent hand chosen and designed to provide him with the type of fight that fans wish to see, a stand-up battle.
In Magomedov’s last bout they gave him an athletic, fleet footed and experienced striker in Michael Page and Page painted the slower, more deliberate Magomedov’s fence in a one-sided decision.
Stand up fights provide Magomedov not only a fight he can compete in but one he is likely to win for Magomedov himself is relatively slow, he is susceptible to left hands/kicks because his right eye is the nonfunctioning orbital and he can gas as the fight wears on.
He just needs pedestrian competition for anyone close to elite will paint this man’s fence.
While Magomedov’s appearance makes him look ominous, his fight arsenal scares few competent athletes in the division.
For this fight, the UFC hand-picked a large, slow, hittable fellow striker to compete against Magomedov and that fighter’s name is Canadian ship in Marc-Andre’ Barriault an athlete willing to share the cage with the local favorite and try to springboard up the rankings by earning victory over the local Dagestani fighter.
Barriault, primarily a durable, tough power striker who carries a blue belt in BJJ into his fights arrives to this battle off a win against Brazilian Bruno Silva after having dropped his last three bouts.
Two of those losses were via the KO so it seems clear to me that in this matchup the UFC designed this confrontation to both provide Magomedov with a favorable opponent but an opponent that is relatively stationary and one that will be there for him to batter much to the delight of the Muslim crowd in attendance.
This seems a clear example of a set up fight for Magomedov.
Total in this fight stands 1.5Rds Over -160
Asu Almabaev -110 vs. Jose Ochoa -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Ochoa, a power striker from Peru is 1-1 in the UFC. He is aggressive, athletic, and willing to enter the firestorm for striking exchanges at any time.
He is undefeated save for a decision loss to Lone’er Kavanagh, his debut fight into the UFC. Ochoa followed that loss with a very impressive finish win over the durable Cody Durden in his last bout.
In Almabaev we have a talented world class grappler/wrestler from Kazakhstan. Almabaev is well equipped on the feet, and his well-rounded fight arsenal sets him up to be a viable contender in the division for years to come.
Entering this fight off a loss to Manuel Kape is no embarrassment for Almabaev rather it is a badge of honor for Kape, when he competes like he did in his battle against Almabaev, is clearly the top threat to current champion Alexandre Pantoja.
When this fight opened it was Almabaev who came the -400 chalk and while that is a high number the fact that he was favored is what we need to take from the opener.
In fleeting time Ochoa was bet and bet hard into the current pricing on this fight which stands at pick-em.
Ochoa’s striking is stellar, and his strike defense is also above par but his wrestling and especially his take down defense stands at 66% which is quite lacking especially given the competition he has faced.
In this fight it is my judgement that Almabaev will navigate Ochoa into the second round and beyond by mixing in takedowns and effective striking. He will journey the twenty-four-year-old into the later minutes of this fight where his wrestling acumen and cardio will be able to turn the tides on the frontrunning Peruvian puncher.
The value on Almabaev who had decimated four opponents prior to fighting Kape is too much for me to overlook here. Ochoa is ripe and Almabaev has too much experience and wrestling ability for this fight to be lined as it is.
Almabaev -110 2u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185
On Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop only at GambLou.com. Get my final releases for the card there and thank you for reading.
Enjoy the fights from Abu Dhabi!
