This week’s UFC 329 is highlighted by the return of Conor McGregor who takes on Max Holloway in a rematch thirteen years in the making. Then they fought at 145lbs and Saturday their fight is ‘scheduled’ for 170lbs. in the welterweight division.
T-Mobile in Las Vegas will host the event that features fourteen bouts to be waged in the large thirty foot octagon and in front of a packed house.
Five fights feature athletes travelling into the states top compete against fighters from the USA, so home turf may offer advantage in those fights as well there are five fights that will be waged in the higher weight classes (170 lbs. and above) where finishes are more frequent than in the lower divisions.
Lastly, in a fight that will last less than 120 seconds, Gable Stevson makes his UFC debut, Stevenson is a world class Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling who will decimate the mannequin they have placed before him in that matchup.
Time to make some hay!
Max Holloway -220 vs. Conor McGregor +190 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Thirteen years ago these two tussled at 145lbs. McGregor won in a decision against a young, skinny, green Max Holloway who was in his fourth UFC fight.
Flash forward to today and the paths each man has taken to get here are drastically different.
For McGregor, we understand the unique brilliance, the deft footwork, the power, and the simple mental majesty by which he overtook the featherweight division in the UFC then eventually the UFC as a whole.
However, despite the formidable body of work he left us with prior to this fight, it must be mentioned that Conor last fought five years ago which was his second devastating loss in a row to one Dustin Poirier, this time in in round one because of a broken bone in his leg.
McGregor’s last five years have been colorful to say the least. While out of the cage he’s rampaged through the headlines. His chronology is heavily marked by numerous episodes with the law, the courtroom as well he’s had to defend himself in the courtroom against many forms of accusation.
Further, and as importantly, in fighting history itself, one thing has proven to be an absolute fact, that once a man with little to no means is able to propel himself (or herself) through their own immense talent, diligence, and dedication to the pinnacle of the fighting profession that the attainment of that goal, once so foreign to them comes back to corrode them comprehensively because of what the fruits of their labor provide them.
Check fighting history, save for Umar Nurmagomedov and Rocky Marciano no other all time great fighters have been able to walk away from the ring or cage without compromising their own legacy.
It’s history.
Fighters need edge and desperation to gain their reputation.
What they must avoid and what truly corrodes their mind, body and eventually their skill is what the exact success that fighting provides them.
Private jet transportation, silk sheets, Veuve Clicquot and a yes to any question they ask. Yes, once fighters achieve their goal of attaining a title and beyond like McGregor had, then the real adversity begins.
McGregor is today’s textbook example of this. He’s now thirty-seven years old, has not fought in five years and comes in off two loses at that!
McGregor’s mind is sharp no doubt, but I assure you his body will not be able to execute what his mind will try to direct it to.
I expect McGregor to miss weight in this fight and do so on purpose for he is not only keenly unprofessional, but he also understands that the pressure to make this fight will be such that there is no way Max (who has never competed at any weight higher than 155lbs.) his camp or anyone involved with this production will allow the fight to be cancelled.
Yes, McGregor is mentally crafty, and that’s how he can play his mental warfare on Max by making him accept the fight at a weight class other than 170lbs. I believe this is exactly what McGregor will do as it is his way of gaining an edge.
His mind remembers but in the end, all his tricks and magic will not be able to save the thirty seven year old former addict from his trivial pursuit.
We must also take into consideration that Max Holloway has been active, he’s coming off bouts against Gaethje, Topuria, Poirier and Oliviera that absolute elite of the lightweight division.
Max has been competing; he will be able to carry the 170lbs. and carry it effectively into the later rounds of this fight because of his dedication and drive as well because he has stayed active in the game during these last five years while Conor was busy making headlines.
Once the bell for round one rings, McGregor will come out firing fresh, furious and with frenetic pace but he’ll have six and a half minutes to perform, for after that McGregor’s mind will realize what his abused body will be telling him…..that he is able to recall how to fight in world class fashion however that he is simply unable to physically execute that level of fighting any longer.
The mind remembers, but the body just can’t execute anymore.
Come Saturday night I believe Max Holloway will present the brash cocky Irishman a ‘Proper’ send off.
Max Holloway via and KO/Sub/DQ -125 DraftKings
Total in this fight 2.5Rds Under -130
Strong lean Under
Cory Sandhagen -145 vs. Mario Bautista +125 Bantamweight (135lbs.)
Rematch!
This second go round for these two will be a much more competitive fight as then, Bautista took the fight against a ranked Sandhagen on short notice and as a debuting UFC athlete.
Fourth ranked bantamweight Sandhagen trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s got a Taekwondo background supplemented with a brown belt in BJJ, but Sandhagen is also able to utilize his tall, long frame effectively on the feet for he is athletic and sports effective strike evasion to go with his diversity of strikes and kicks which he accrues via volume as opposed to power.
Sandhagen’s grappling is elite and he’s been in the octagon with the absolute elite of the division. Sandhagen is a legitimate top five athlete at bantamweight.
For the fifth ranked Bautista, this rematch has been the fight he has been yearning for over the course of the last several years. A black belt in BJJ with a foundation in wrestling and boxing, Bautista is your true diligent grinding Mexican fighter.
He has an iron will, a great diversity of offensive attack as well he sports solid wrestling acumen. Bautista is able to overwhelm opponents with his positive 1.32 significant strikes per minute then fold in his world class wrestling/grappling prowess (a trait of all MMALab athletes) into the mix.
Sandhagen will be the taller, longer man in the cage, but Bautista will be the more compact, powerful player. Bautista’s focus on stepping over Sandhagen has been simmering for the last seven years since they first competed and it will be the constant forward pressure that Bautista will apply to Sandhagen throughout this fight that will make the difference here.
This is a stellar opportunity for Bautista to snag Sandhagen’s shine and catapult himself up the rankings and make his case for a title opportunity.
The completeness of Bautista’s mixed martial arts weaponry and more specifically his pressure wrestling/grappling will ultimately separate him from Sandhagen in oh so competitive rematch.
Bautista +125
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -275
This is a stellar fight card that has amazing matchups. For all of my final releases please check out the ‘Bout Business Podcast available anywhere you get your pod’s and at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!