‘Bout Business Memberships
Thank you all for such a flattering response to ‘Bout Business participation.
As a note: Please understand that memberships are still available and that any considering the year-long ‘Tap-Out’ Membership will absolutely receive a full year of subscription from the date one signed up.
So, if you jump in March 1st your membership will run until Feb. 28th
Questions?
Lou@GambLou.com
For info on the ‘Bout Business Podcast please tap the “‘Bout Business podcast” tab at the top of tis webpage
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Insight the Octagon returns for a seventh year of profitable UFC releases on the most powerful betting platform available; the VSIN digital magazine.
After almost a month off, mixed martial artistry returns featuring athletes from across the world who bring specialized fight weaponry into each matchup. This week from the UFC APEX, LV84 offers a fight slate featuring twelve compelling bouts with athlete’s whose skills and body types range from one end of the fight spectrum to the opposite.
My responsibility is to break down each bout and offer my ‘best bet’ here on these pages for each of the 44/46 weeks in 2024 that the UFC will offer fight enthusiasts it’s productions.
Let’s dig right into this event which commences Saturday at 1pm PT with preliminary action then segway’s to main card competition at 4pm PT.
Magomed Ankalaev -450 vs. Johnnie Walker +375 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event
Last October these two tangled into the first round when Walker was illegally kneed and poked in the eye when chaos ensued. The bout was called a ‘no contest’ based on a combination of incompetent refereeing and a language barrier between Walker and said ref.
Flash forward to Saturday and these two will be again be presented the opportunity to vie against each other. I must mention that hatred between Brazilian fight athletes and Russian’s is stringent on a day-to-day basis but in this case these two can’t wait to try to inflict maximum damage upon one another.
Seventh ranked Walker, a Brazilian striker now training in Ireland holds impressive size and length advantages over most athletes in the division and in this fight that holds true.
Walker, a brown belt in BJJ rarely employs his grappling preferring instead to utilize his massive size/length and flamboyant freewheeling striking to try to incapacitate opponents with driving knees, spinning kicks, impaling elbows, and fists.
Walker employs an aggressive approach on opponents as his single goal is to crack then unconscious, pick up a bonus check and return to his training.
Walker’s forceful offense is supplemented by a relative lack of take down ability as well he has a chin more fragile than ancient porcelain.
Third ranked Russian Ankalaev enters a winner of nine straight UFC bouts before realizing a questionable draw (which I believe he won) against Jan Blachowicz in a title fight, then NC came against Walker last fall.
Ankalaev has little personality, panache’ or flamboyance but he holds International Master of Sport degrees in both Samba and MMA. These titles are not handed out easily in the realm of Russian MMA as an aside.
Ankalaev’s personality is as reflective of his approach to fighting as is Walker’s. Walker the aggressive matrix like striker pitted against Ankalaev a systematic, patient grappling machine.
Ankalaev employs a solid striking base in order to enter the pocket against opponents then his aim is to immediately drag foes to the mat for a complete mauling. His strength is immeasurable and is complimented by his cardio which allows him to overwhelm opponents with unrelenting forward grappling pressure.
There exists an abundance of angst between these two and Saturday Walker is going to try to kick Ankalaev’s head into the upper deck while Ankalaev will try to use this five-round bout to first exhaust the monstrous striker then take him down to the floor and choke him out of consciousness.
I believe Ankalaev dominates this bout after the first round or so but will study props in order to find more opportunity than his current straight up price.
Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -166
Manuel Kape -270 vs. Matheus Nicolau +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) co main event
This is a rematch of a bout Nicolau won via split decision in 2021 when he was a full-grown man facing Kape who was then just a shadow of the fighter he is today.
Nicolau rattled off four fine wins before running into an elbow and being KO’d by Brandon Royval in his last bout. Nicolau, a Black belt in BBJ with decent striking enters this fight on the bounce and looking to reestablish himself as the next challenger to the title.
Kape, of Angolan and Portuguese descent is lighting fast and supremely athletic. He’s primarily a Muay Thai striking based fighter who forces opponents backwards then blisters them with his hand speed and leg movement which allow him to attack from every angle.
Kape’s greatest asset may be his power which is unusual for a fighter so fleet afoot and so athletic.
Once this bout begins it will be Nicolau that must navigate his way inside on the athletic striker in order to both negate his movement and striking distance while smothering him. Fighting Kape forehead to Kape’s chest is the prescription for Nicolau to be successful in this bout for his BJJ stands superior to Kapes.
Kape, meanwhile will use his legs and athleticism to maintain distance and attempt to obliterate Nicolau as he attempts to gain the clinch.
I believe this is a tough assignment for Nicolau and with this co main event being a five round bout I look for Kape to have more time to find Nicolau upon entry.
Kape to win via KO/Sub/DQ +140
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -145
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday just after Noon PT. Access the ‘Bout Business Podcast only at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
GambLou profitability for all 2023 sports except the NFL which is updated through 12-16-23. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!
Stanley Cup Playoffs: 55-47 +25.20u +29% ROI (+131)
College World Series: 16-22 +3.13u +8% ROI (+157)
UFC: 103-111 +20.38u +10% ROI (+128)
NFL (through week 14): 49-45 +3.56u +4% ROI
It’s strictly business!
Today the ‘Bout Business ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast, a comprehensive review of the opening lines for each week’s UFC card drops for its inaugural session. Get it on my front page or anywhere you get your podcasts!
The 10-12 minute podcast will focus on each week’s UFC opening fight lines, where they have moved and where they may move. It’s a terrific supplement/precursor to the ’Bout Business Podcast as it highlights early thoughts and delivers potential advantageous wagers.
‘Bout Business Podcast 2024
Speaking of the ‘Bout Business Podcast, on January 1st 2024 the only place to access the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be on the GambLou.com webpage.
The podcast is going behind a paywall for the purpose of creating a consistent stream of contributions/donations to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ.
I would ask those considering a membership to focus on these pertinent business directives:
MOST IMPORTANT
For decades I have been theorizing on how I could contribute business proceeds to the San Xavier Mission and this is the vehicle I have chosen.
So rather than regard this as ‘Lou cashing in on his ability to provide listeners with winning positions on UFC fights’…. which will always be the case. I’d ask membership holders to regard yourselves as partners with GambLou.com in contributing to a cause that’s been important to me for decades.
As an independent sports handicapper, it’s critical that I try to lead the charge for independent thinking and acting. While the many podcast giants are mongering for hits, tweets, bottom line and selling swag to pad their wallets… our goal here is different.
The intention is to simply create a contribution stream that comes from the ‘Bout Business Podcast and is directed to the San Xavier Mission.
Request
My request is that Fight Enthusiasts consider a membership to the ‘Bout Business Podcast with the understanding that you will not only profit from the positions released (‘Bout Business profit 2023: 28.33units, 16% ROI, average +128) but you will also be teaming with me in directing a steady stream of monetary contribution to the San Xavier del Bac Mission.
For more information on the Mission please hit the ’San Xavier del Bac Mission’ tab at the top of this webpage and you may view my history with the Mission.
Questions, issues, comments? Lou@GambLou.com
Thank you for any consideration
Louis Finocchiaro
The Sneak-Teep Podcast debuts next Tuesday!
On it, I’ll review opening lines for each week’s UFC event. Line openers, line movement and insight regarding any such movement will be covered in a brief preview on a fight by fight basis.
‘Bout Business Podcast 2023 results to date: 91-87 +28.33u 16% ROI (+127)*
*Note: With the JBJ cancellation each of the 2 parlay legs that we had now convert to a 1 team parlay. For Marcos -135 we earn .75u and with Tafa as -200 we earn .50 so there are 2 wins and 1.25u of profit added because of that cancellation.
Beginning January 1 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available ONLY on the GambLou.com webpage. Membership opportunities are available to all. Please go to the ‘Bout Business tab on the top of this webpage for specifics about my goal of creating a contribution stream to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucsom, AZ.
To date the ‘Bout Business Podcast is: 86-86 +23.18u 14% ROI (+127)
This week at UFC LV81 the ‘Bout Business Podcast experienced a slightly losing week realizing a 2-3 tally for <.35> units of profit.
Minimizing loss is as important as maximizing profits so we’ll take the slight thirty-five cent hit and focus ahead on UFC 294 this week.
Starting October 31st will the GambLou ‘Bout Business Sneak-Teep podcast will deliver opening line information each week there is a UFC event. Tune up then tune it!
Entering October ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 80-81 +22.58u 14% ROI (+129)
The next fight card is October 7th.
Look for the ‘Bout Business, Sneak Teep Podcast, a weekly opening line report for UFC cards to begin Tuesday October 31st. Scary!
GambLou weekly UFC profitability took a step backwards last week as I realized a 0-4 -3.5unit evening Saturday in the UFC.
While it’s never easy to report loss, it’s part of the landscape of running a successful business and besides I’ve had so few losing nights thus year that this is easy to account for. I did after all use only a half unit on Christo Giagos which saved us a half a unit.
Rarely do I sweep a UFC board and rarely will I get blanked, each has occurred in the last four weeks which is funny. I would expect it to be some time before wither happen again… I presume.
NFL is now 2 weeks into the season so I’ll begin to post mid-week observations and rants pertaining to NFL starting this week.
UFC 2023: 77-78 +22.80u 15%ROI (+130)
Never in my wildest imaginations did I believe that Sean Strickland would actually execute the proper plan of attack to clasp the middleweight title away from former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Strickland with his one-sided decision win has left the MMA community dumbfounded heading into this week’s card.
Now this week from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas comes ‘Noche UFC’ an event described by the UFC as, “The UFC brings an action-packed card to T-Mobile Arena on Mexican Independence Day for the first time ever. It has become a great tradition in combat sports to hold big fights on September 16th, and this year we’re honoring our UFC fans and fighters from Mexican communities with an inaugural Noche UFC.”
On this fight card are six true Mexican fighters and another three of Mexican heritage now residing in the US. They’ll take on other athletes from around the globe in this event highlighted by current Mexican flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s first defense which is a rematch with former champion Valentina Shevchenko who Grasso submitted to earn the title this past March.
Last week we realized great displeasure by wagering on the ‘Pleasure man’ Anton Turkalj. We step back in profitability with the goal of enhancing that bottom line with this week’s release.
Champion Alexa Grasso +140 vs. Valentina Schevchenko -165 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) title
This line opened months ago Schevchenko -225. Immediately after release I advised ‘Bout Business Podcast listeners to attack that Grasso +195 price. As we can see that price is long gone and the current number depicts a more realistic price on this bout in my judgement.
Shevchenko’s shown an ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life a little bit.
While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what I was taught by ol’ Angelo Dundee many years ago and I have found this to be so true of fighters.
Dundee would warn of the paradox in this manner; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s they’ve longed for from their fighting success, it’s that notoriety, money and distraction coming from the public accolades that end up diluting the fighter’s skills. Yes, success corrodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.
Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to overcome any obstacle. However, she’s now thirty-five and has been competing with absolutely every world class adversary the organization put in front of her since 2015.
Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight it will be 70% of her pride yearning to recapture that title substantiated with 30% grit, determination and nasty.
For Grasso, she’s has months to reprepare for this second challenge. The old boxing saying that fighters become 35% better once they clasp the championship is not inaccurate in my judgement.
In March Grasso utilized speed, timing and her specific plan for success which ended up being enough to earn her the title. So now Grasso and camp know they had the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this tussle, how will they adjust if at all?
Different in this fight is the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion but the crowd will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts all yearning to see their fighter dominate. So yes, there is pressure on Grasso entering this rematch.
Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.
Grasso will need to face the fire but she’ll realize too that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully, Valentina! In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know immediately that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title.
Grasso +195 was surely a wrong price. Grasso +150 is more in line. It’s difficult for me to recommend Grasso +150 when I already hold her +195 so I’ll look to a bout other than tis main event to pad 2023 profitability.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -155
This price indicates a potentially close, competitive decision
Tracy Cortez -125 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicious +105 women’s flyweight
Tracy Cortez comes from a family of wrestlers. Her forward pressure, clinch attack and cardio are what one would expect from a top end grinding wrestler.
Cortez has faced decent UFC caliber foes and she’s shown an ability to press the pace and utilize her wrestling in the cage. The issue here however is that this is mixed martial arts competition and Cortez, though apt as a pressure wrestler, is lacking with her striking and strike evasion which offers opponents a singularly versed opponent.
Jasmine enters this fight the larger lady, the older fighter and the athlete with deeper experience. She’s also been in the cage with a higher caliber set of opponents. Jasmine is coming off an impressive victory over another forward pressing wrestling- based athlete in Miranda Maverick, one I handicap to be at or above the ability of Ms. Cortez. The Maverick bout could not have come at a better time for Jasmine for it is a terrific precursor to Ms. Cortez as both are very similar in fighting style.
Jasmine’s experience, her size, the absolute bad intention she carries and above all her effective power striking will be the difference in this fight as she’s seen fighters similarly equipped as Cortez. Meanwhile Jasmine represents a substantial step up in class for Cortez and one that will do all she can to finish this fight.
The contention here is that Jasudavicious should be the athlete with the minus next to her name so I find it advantageous to invest in Jasudavicious +105.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -350
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC fight card. This week the Pod will be available around 1pm PT!
Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading
This week in the UFC ‘Bout Business Podcast did something that happens rarely, it swept the board. Interestingly it was done on a night when favorites ran 10-1 in the UFC. What’s more interesting than that was that all of the releases offered Saturday were chalk positions!
‘Bout Business Podcast enthusiasts realized a 3-0 +3.43u evening.
2023 BBP totals: 75-72 +23.81u 16%ROI (+128)
It’s not too late to step in and realize bottom line profitability from the last quarter of the UFC year!
My lesson learned from this past week is to get back to my underdog basics immediately while continuing to take advantage of the menu’s offered by the major sportsbooks which allow me to both obtain betting advantage while simultaneously providing that betting insight to loyal fight enthusiasts.
Tomorrow: I talk al about Deion…and yes, I am a believer!