The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi UAE this weekend to export their brand to the fight frenetic Muslim world. Abu Dhabi is becoming a regular stop for the UFC as they attract great crowds for the events as well there is a business camaraderie between the leadership there and the UFC.
This event will utilize the large cage, and a full house will witness the intended violence. We have thirteen schedule bouts of which eight will be held in the higher weight classes of Welterweight on up. These larger men produce the highest finish rates in the UFC, so we witness the effort to export UFC violence to the UAE.
There are seven fights on this card where the favorite is lined at least -310, in essence bringing total wagerable fights (outside of props and totals) to eight bouts, there are also a handful of fights where there exists great advantage from a youth standpoint.
Understanding age, size, travel, and location of the fight slate is always foundational in my handicapping process.
Last week Jose Delgado +100 overcame a steamed prospect in Austin Bashi. Bashi was hit by the so called ‘sharp’ gambling people right before they dropped the puck on this fight moving Delgado into plus price territory. Delgado awarded Bashi his PhD. In MMA we tote a unit into our yearly bankroll.
Magomed Ankaleav -550 vs. Bogdan Guskov +430 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event
Ninth ranked light heavyweight Guskov steps in on relatively short notice to take advantage of the opportunity to climb the rankings with a victory over the number two ranked and former champion in Ankalaev.
Guskov takes the place of Kalil Roundtree, he enters this fight after a draw to former champion Jan Blachowicz after winning four straight bouts.
Guskov is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a Master of Sport in MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Boxing. He is strong, determined and he utilizes a forward pressing attack where engagement with the opponent is mandatory for of Guskov’s eighteen wins, all are via finish.
That being stated, this is a substantial step up in class for Guskov, he too takes this opportunity on without the benefit of a full training camp.
Former champion Ankalaev, currently ranked number two in the division is also highly versed in fighting for he holds an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.
While most Russian fighters excel in grappling, sambo and wrestling Ankaleav utilizes more of a pressing striking and kicking attack to earn his wages. Of his twenty wins, ten have come via the KO and ten via decision. Unusually for a Russian athlete in the UFC, Ankalaev holds no wins via submission.
This fight makes out to be a war that will be waged on the feet for fifteen of Guskov’s victories in MMA have come via the KO/TKO while ten have come that way for Ankalaev. Ankalaev’s ten decision wins point more to the elite level of adversary he has competed against as opposed to any lack of finishing ability in my judgement.
Once this fight begins Ankalaev’s size, might and experience will be the tells against an athlete in Guskov who has been pressed into this opportunity based on UFC need as opposed to Guskov’s own merits.
This will be a one sided fight after a relatively competitive first round.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -155
As a handicapper, my analysis of this card is that it was put together with the sole purpose of serving a proud, financially active and involved Saudi demographic. I hate to state the obvious but the overwhelming mismatch fights on this card force the opportunity searching handicapper to have fewer fight to analyze for profit.
One consideration is to select four or five area combatants that are heavy chalk then throw them into a round robin and bet each in 2 and 3 team sets.
I however rarely bet that way so for our purposes let’s execute the following future parlay ourselves.
Main Event,
Ankalaev/Guskov starts Round 2 -250 To MacKenzie Dern -198; +110 (DraftKings)
(Dern fights 8-15 vs. Gillian Robertson)
Total in Ankalaev/Guskov Fight: 2.5 -145 Under
Nurullo Aliev -220 vs. Mike Davis +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Aliev is set up for shine in front of his peeps as he is a vice grip Tajikistani wrestling/sambo force entering this battle undefeated professionally at 11-0.
Should this fight go Aliev’s way we’ll witness the Tajik fighter take Davis down immediately then control him from top position on his way to an eventual decision or perhaps if lucky, a finish. That’s what many feel will occur in this fight.
Myself, I handicap a lethal, pent up fighting professional in Mike Davisa who’s wrestling is so much more acute than many understand to be like a coiled cobra in this situation.
He’s not had to utilize wrestling much because he sports hands or fury. He is a slick, competent power boxer along with holding underestimated wrestling acumen. That wrestling, specifically his take down defense must allow Davis to navigate this fight into the later rounds where his experience and technical striking ability will begin to produce effect.
Mike Davis is an underestimated razor blade and in a situation like this, I trust him to fight for my dollar.
Mike Davis +190
Total in this fight is not yet released, nor is the Points Handicap which is a betting tool I utilize religiously.
Friday when the ‘Bout Business Podcast comes out; I’ll highlight all my approaches to this fight and there are many.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.