Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 325 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Cowboy Ciao?

Sydney, Australia is the host city for this week’s UFC 325 a fight card populated with ten legitimate UFC matchups and four ‘Road to the UFC’ fights.

Sydney will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon, and these battles will be held in front of an always raucous Aussie crowd.

Start time in the USA is 2PM PST for early prelims, 4PM PST for Preliminary fights then 6PM PST for the main card which will be the norm for these Paramount events,

As an aside, this column handicaps UFC fights only so this week we have ten bouts populated with an international set of combatants. Nine Aussie athletes (and Fiziev from Phuket, Thailand) will benefit from the lack of travel while fighters from the US, Mexico Brazil and Wales will need to commute into Australia for their confrontations all against local Aussie fighting talent.

Travel to any foreign fight slate is an important factor especially regarding fighter weigh-ins as plane rides bloat passengers. Another factor is WHEN athletes arrive to any foreign location for altitude and time differences are real factors in fights and must be addressed by athletes and handicappers alike.

Handicapping this or any foreign event means understanding that often local/regional athletes can be paired in somewhat favorable matchups to both encourage the crowd to be hysterical as well and more importantly to spread the UFC’s brand in that geographical area.

In other words, there can be great advantage being a local/regional athlete when the UFC travels abroad,

Last week favorites went 8-3 in the UFC after realizing a 330-154-18 (65.7%) result in 2025.

Alexander Volkanovski -160 vs. Diego Lopes +145 Featherweight (145lbs.) Title

This is an immediate rematch of a championship battle that transpired last April in Miami where Volkanovski retained his featherweight title via a unanimous decision.

Current number two ranked Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC in May of 2023 and took current UFC featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s number one ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice!

Since that decision loss, Lopes, who has leapfrogged over Evloev for this SECOND title opportunity has dominated five highly decorated featherweight adversaries leading into that championship opportunity last April against Vokanovski where he was exposed on several levels.

In that bout Volkanovski, then thirty-six displayed keen footwork, world class wrestling and a depth of fight experience in remaining one step ahead of thirty-year-old Lopes on his way to a definitive unanimous decision win.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will still hold that five-year youth advantage coming into this return fight, he remains six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the champion but I question what he has accomplished physically in the last calendar year to close the skill gap between he and Volkanovski.

In fact he was displaying similar difficulty keeping up with his last opponent Brazilian Jean Silva before Silva ran into a spinning elbow that ended the fight.

Lopes has substantial power and while he is tough, durable and steps into this bout after that stunning knockout victory over Silva, my judgement is that what he needed to refine and improve the most, namely his footwork and quickness in order to compete with the current champion have not been addressed appropriately from last year to this.

Volkanovski has not fought since these two last tangled as well he competes in his home country Australia as opposed to the travel he incurred for their last fight in the Latino mecca that is Miami, Fl.

Volkanovski’s intelligence, his cardio, the completeness of his mixed martial arts weaponry and his deft strike defense together with his nimble footwork and depth of five round championship experience still provide him advantage over anyone in the division let alone a young but hungry warrior he beat soundly less than one year ago.

Volkanovski opened -130/-135 for the first bout between these two and closed at -155/-160.

For this championship bout Volkanovski opened -150/-155 where this line sits currently.

Total in this fight: sits 3.5Rds -130 at some shops and 4.5 Rds. -110 at others.

When I see these early differences in totals, the end result almost always ends up being a fight lined at 4.5 rounds.  There is advantage to be had if one considers attacking that 3.5 Rds. Over -130 (DK).

Mauricio Ruffy -120 vs. Raphael Fiziev +100

Ruffy, the organizations fourteenth ranked lightweight arrives to Australia prepared to rectify the beating he incurred at the hands of Benoit Saint-Denis last September. Prior to that fight Ruffy, a Fighting Nerd from Brazil who is a long, lean striking machine displayed tremendous aptitude, speed, and refined precision in decimating several worthy adversaries.

Not decorated with any awarded belts, Ruffy does display lighting fast Capoeira tendencies which include spinning heel kicks, flying knees and an overall aggressive display of striking aggression.

What exposed the aggressive flamboyant striker in that last fight was his complete inability to grapple, wrestle or defend the takedown, a weakness that will soon need to be addressed ..but not for this bout.

For this fight Ruffy draws a great dance partner in Rafael Fiziev who is the striking coach at Phuket, Thailand’s Tiger Muay Thai, a gym that is world renown.

Fiziev too packs great power in his diversity of strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees. What makes this fight so fascinating is that neither of these cats can even spell wrestling. Spectator’s watching this artillery launch will witness a short, compact, explosive Kyrgyzstani in Fiziev who holds a blue belt in BJJ compete against a man similarly equipped in UFC weaponry, however one who will stand thee inches taller, will hold a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and will be three years the younger combatant.

Once this fight begins my best advice is to not blink, for Ruffy will strive to maintain distance and bludgeon the incoming Fiziev with numbing strikes which will emanate from every angle, and limb.

Fiziev for his part has matrix-like defense and it will be his chore to navigate his way inside on Ruffy which will mute Ruffy’s length/effectiveness and simultaneously allow Fiziev to unleash his own artistic yet devastating array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks onto the Brazilian athlete.

The clash of body types and the relative similarities in how each of these dominators wants to win should be epic watching.

In the end, it is Fiziev, 7-4 in the UFC, who has been in with the more qualified and capable set of opponents, it’s Fiziev who has the benefit of little travel as well he’ll have the crowd on his side.

Ruffy, 3-1 in the UFC will need to navigate that trip from Brazil, make weight then fight the regional athlete in Fiziev in Fiziev’s hemisphere. But with that said, youth, speed, flash, and dynamic may well rest on the Ruffy side.

This bout opened a dead pick-em (-110 each man) and current fight lines can be found from Ruffy -120 to Fiziev -115.

Shop wisely my friends!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Strong lean over

Quillan Salkilld -1000 vs. Jaime Mullarkey +700 Lightweight (155lbs)

It’s not often we write up a fight with such a cavernous spread difference between combatants, but this fight is going to be the fight that ignites the crowd for this event.

Salkilld is a dead finisher having earned KO’s or submissions in seven of his eleven professional bouts.

He was originally matched up with a Chinese mixed martial artist that was going to accommodate both he and the crowd in China’s RongZhu, a Sanda kickboxing based fighter who is aggressive and powerful.

Rong Zhu was forced to pull out of the fight.

Salkilld pleaded with the UFC to keep him on the card because as one may expect, being an Aussie and competing in front of one’s home compatriots is an honor and Salkilld wanted to remain on the event desperately.

The UFC with it’s deft ability to always keep fight cards populated, found fellow Australian fighter Jamie Mullarkey to jump into this event on but a couple of weeks of notice.

While Salkilld is a finishing machine, Mullarkey unfortunately is a man who gets finished.

Mullarkey, an uber aggressive power striker has twelve fights of experience in the UFC realizing a 6-6 record however, he’s been brutally finished in four of his last eight bouts and the few victories he’s enjoyed were to athletes most of whom no longer compete in the organization.

Props for this fight are not available yet, but this total is listed 1.5 Rds. -165 Under.

It is safe to advise Salkilld via finish in this fight and further even look to Salkilld via KO/TKO/DQ in order to attempt to pry a price out of a fight where the result is almost certain.

Jacob Malkoun -220 vs. Torrez Finney +190 Middleweight (185lbs.)

This is the dinosaur fight.

Not that these guys are old, but each is a wrestling based fighter and in this new Paramount age of violence, finishes and frenzy fifteen minutes of two men rolling on the canvas is not only distasteful to the UFC but the crowd as well. Too bad.

None the less these two will face off in what I handicap to be the wrong man may be favored fight.

Malkoun, 4-3 in the UFC has had an inconsistent UFC career which may be the result of grotesque inactivity.

After three bouts in 2022, Malkoun fought once in 2023 and once in March of 2024, so he’s been on the shelf and in the gym since then.

Evolution in the fight game takes place in the gym yes, but also in the octagon under the bright lights.

The inactivity of Malkoun is of great concern here despite the fact that he’s primarily a wrestler with some degree of danger in his hands.

In Torrez Finney we get a sawed-off American wrestling talent who is as stout as he is tall.

Finney is mad athletic for his build and has had a deep history in competitive wrestling, but his strikes are telegraphed, wide and easy to evade.

Once this fight begins I believe it will be difficult for Malkoun to try to fend off the unrelenting forward pressing wrester that is Finney.

Finney wants to win fights at this early stage of his career, so he will simply sell out in the wrestling then hope to reign damage on the Aussie from the dominant top position.

While Malkoun should hold a striking advantage, it may be difficult for him to create enough space to breath let alone throw a punch.

The difference in wrestling prowess is too wide for the Australian Malkoun to overcome as I handicap this bout.

Finney +190 (circa)

The lines to this fight are all over the board so shop accordingly to capture the best price on Finney available.

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Over -200

Strong lean over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all Podcast platforms, it’s also available at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 324 Gaethje vs. Pimlett: ‘Suga’ Daddy

After a welcome hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for a fight production to be aired on Paramount called UFC 324. This event will feature the larger thirty-foot octagon and a packed house of fight fanatics.

Welcome news for fight enthusiasts is that with a subscription to Paramount, all fights this year are free as the era of pay-per-view events ends.

There are thirteen scheduled bouts for this card, five of which will be held at the Welterweight division (170lbs.) and above. The larger the combatants the greater chance for finishes.

There are six bouts on this card where a youth advantage of six years or greater exists between opponents. Fighters six years younger than their opponents realize a 62%-win rate. Fighters who are more than six years younger than their opponents realize even greater advantages so it’s critical to understand not only the physical and mental capacities of each combatant but their age and who they have competed against in recent fights as well.

While this is an international set of fighters converging in Las Vegas, only two fights feature someone from out of the country facing a domestic US athlete, so home octagon advantage exists in only two fights one being the main event.

Now let’s break down a couple of fascinating fight matchups.

Paddy Pimlett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195 Lightweight (155lbs.) Interim Title

English mixed martial artist Paddy Pimlett is from Liverpool, England and a proud ‘scouser’ he is.

Pimlett began his MMA journey at the age of fifteen and has developed into a wildly popular/magnetic UFC athlete.

Paddy ‘the baddy’ as he is called is a second-degree black belt in BJJ. He has shown the ability to fluster opponents in the octagon then force them into making mistakes where Pimlett, now twenty-nine is able to engulf them in his grappling.

From engagement Pimlett has a deft ability to find the opponent’s back or alternatively grab their neck, an arm or leg and submit them with brilliant efficiency.

Despite Pimlett being an inch shorter than Gaethje, his opponent this weekend, he will enter the cage well over 170lbs. He is athletic, strong, and able to utilize his size in grappling transitions that few of his past opponents have been able to stop.

Pimlett is 7-0 in his UFC competition with a razor close win over one Jarod Gordon that was graded a win but in actuality may have been one of the worse decisions in MMA.

Nonetheless, Paddy’s ‘Scouser’ submission ability and his tremendous popularity put him right behind Suga’ Sean O’Malley as the ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of fighters with the far-reaching draw and profuse popularity the UFC so yearns to promote and earn from.

Former ‘BMF’ Champion as well as former lightweight interim champion Justin Gaethje is Pimlett’s adversary this week.

Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight finishing striking power that can come from any kick, elbow, fist or flying knee and he throws them all with ill intent.

Gaethje utilizes numbing low leg/calf kicks to maim opponents then once compromised, he unleashes devastating power strikes that often leave opponents incapacitated.

Gaethje is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster and at thirty-seven years old he has made it clear that with a victory here he transitions into a championship fight against currently shelved lightweight title holder Ilya Topuria.

What separates Gaethje from Pimlett, is that Gaethje has competed against the elite and most dominant athletes in the division for several years now.  Pimlett has not and many feel he is in this spot simply because of his popularity and his ability to draw people to fights.

Since 2019 Gaethje has only had setbacks against elite athletes in the division such as Charles Oliveira, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway. Gaethje dominated top ten ranked fighters like Tiger Muay Thai’s striking coach Raphael Fiziev (twice) and former lightweight champion and future hall of famer, Dustin Poirier.

All of these former opponents have tested Gaethje’s mettle and have prepared him to realize great advantage in level of competition faced when he steps into this fight against Paddy Saturday night.

It’s Gaethje’s age and ability to fend off the Pimlett takedown attempts and unrelenting grappling advances that become the single focus of how this fight transpires in my judgement.

Once this bout starts, Gaethje, who rarely utilizes his wrestling skill, other than take down defense will look to keep this fight standing then counterattack with those lethal kicks to numb Paddy’s legs then mark him up with an array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks to the dome.

Paddy for his part will need to navigate through the barrage of power shots and find a way to clasp onto Gaethje, press him against the fence and close distance which will set him up to try to grab ahold of anything, a leg, an arm or ride Gaethje’s back in order to mute that forceful striking and transition this fight into a grappling match where Pimlett should possess great advantage.

The clash of each combatants style, the difference in level of competition faced and the age difference in this fight are all foundational to its outcome.

At the end of the day the magnetism of the Englishman is everything the UFC is yearning for, despite his shallow fight resume while fighters like the thirty-seven-year-old Gaethje will be put up against the hungry young lions on the rise in order to ‘clean-out’ the organization of its aged, higher paid talent. After all, it is a business!

The UFC yearns to develop and highlight athletes that have dynamic magnetism/appeal beside being capable finishers as they realize what puts butts in the seats.

They see particularly great future value in the ‘Scouser’ from Liverpool and while they will claim they don’t prefer one fighter over any other but make little mistake that in this new Paramount era…. They actually will award fighters who draw crowds and finish opponents with great advantages in upcoming matchups.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -120

Lean Over

Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main

Fifth ranked UFC bantamweight Song Yadong, began learning Sambo at the age of nine then transitioned into MMA just a few years after.

From the age of twenty-two on he’s trained at team Alpha Male in northern California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and team.

Over the course of the last decade the groomers at Alpha Male have equipped the twenty-eight-year-old Yadong with effective wrestling, strong take down defense and tremendous cardio ability, all aspects of his fight game that needed improvement.

Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that his opponent, Sean O’Malley is primarily a striker and a highly precise one at that. Further, Yadong will be focused on negating the striking prowess of O’Malley and his long, sinewy frame. To do so Yadong will need to work his way ‘inside the pocket’ and utilize everything Alpha Male has instilled in him to keep this fight in close and dirty as opposed to out in space and distance where his opponent may maneuver freely.

This is a foundational fight for Yadong for should he be able to find O’Malley with a power shot or even be able to grind him against the fence from close quarters then wrestle him up to earn victory he propels himself into that third ranked position currently held by O’Malley.

Yadong’s adversary needs little introduction.

Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a lightning rod of popularity among today’s young fight fans, and his immense popularity goes well beyond just the fight game.

Besides his electric persona O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks and an underrated BJJ game that he has been cultivating for years.

O’Malley strengths are his agility, coordination, speed and precision striking ability but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize in this battle against Yadong who is the stronger athlete and who understands that in space this is O’Malley’s fight so the elimination of distance will surely be the goal of Yadong.

O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and at distance where he may utilize the advantages he sports such as deft movement, great footwork, the creation of striking and kicking angles and lastly his ability to evade strikes from adversaries. The thirty-foot cage also compliments the fighting style and athleticism O’Malley will utilize to keep his adversary at distance and the end of his precision strikes.

The uninformed will claim O’Malley is, not nor will he ever be an effective wrestler/grappler, which is simply not the case. While his wrestling pales in comparison to former champion Merab Dvalishvili it is developed enough to be able to thwart the efforts of Yadong in this matchup.

O’Malley’s arrives to this opportunity beaming with confidence. He understands what he is to the UFC as a title contender and that with his dynamic popularity and drawing power he is but one twin away (this one) from a title rematch with current champion Petr Yan whom O’Malley beat in a highly controversial split decision in October of 2022.

The evolution of the UFC and their new broadcast partner looking to harness fighters with immense popularity coupled with finishing power and drawing potential is upon us.

This co main event was specifically designed to provide one of the UFC’s greatest drawing personalities with an advantageous matchup opportunity in order to boomerang him into a bantamweight super fight with current champion Yan.

The only barricade in the design is Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong.

The foundation of this fight handicap revolves around the deft O’Malley footwork and his matrixlike strike evasion.

It’s my judgement that Yadong will struggle trying to catch up with O’Malley, especially in the spacious thirty-foot octagon. O’Malley’s feet will be the difference in this fight in that they’ll allow him to remain effective in space where he will be able to slice and dice the incoming Chinese athlete with every form of strike/kick while at the same time using said footwork to evade the power and effect of Yadong’s striking.

O’Malley opened -300 for this fight before dropping to -190. He is currently priced -200 to Yadong’s +170. Total in this three round fight is lined 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Props for this fight are available currently. O’Malley decision is priced -110 but rather than get too cute coming out of the 2026 gate, I’ll simply use

O’Malley -200

(Leg 1, 2 fighter parlay)

In my judgement that puts me with an interest in the fighter the organization wants to move forward into a championship bout.

Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170 Flyweight (125lbs.)

This is a fight between a tall, rangy world class striker in Johnson who is madly active fighting fellow flyweights and a short relatively inactive grappler/wrestler in Alex Perez.

Perez’ inactivity, five fights since 2020 should concern investors, especially understanding that in 2024 he went 1-2 against top fifteen competition then he took only one bout, a loss to Asu Almabaev in 2025.

Perez is willing and experienced but in this matchup he faces an athlete three inches taller who sports a five-inch reach advantage arms with a couple inches advantage legs.

Johnson’s high level of activity (he has had sixteen fights since 2020) his mettle, his striking acumen, and that fact that he arrives to this fight brimming with confidence all force me to regard him as a value despite being a -200 chalk.

Parlay: Johnson -200/O’Malley -200

1u returns 1.25u

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available to all across all podcast platforms. It’s also available GambLou.com

Get all of my final releases for this UFC 324 fight card there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Divisional Drubbings?

Yes NFL enthusiasts I believe this week we witness four games that will not fall withing a seven point difference. Here are my predictions for each game. As an FYI, My NFL clients are sitting on a 3 team 7 point teaser this week. Interested parties can access that release at VSiN.

Buffalo 22 vs. Denver 11

Seattle 28 vs. San Francisco 18

New England 23 vs. Houston 10

Los Angeles 28 vs. Chicago 19

Good Luck to all and check right back here early next week for my early Championship Round predictions!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Wildcard Weekend: Pick the Winner!

It is a timeless piece of wisdom from Gill Alexander—I’ve heard him drop this Wild Card nugget on his VSiN program, ‘A Numbers Game’ for years, and it’s backed by solid historical data.

The core idea is that Wild Card games tend to produce decisive outcomes: favorites either blow out opponents (covering comfortably) or underdogs pull off outright upsets, with very few “win but no cover” scenarios for the favorite.

Recent trends support it closely. In the last 74 Wild Card games (per VSiN data from early 2025), the outright winner covered the spread 86.3% of the time (63-10-1 ATS). “Win-no-covers” (favorite wins but fails to cover) are rare, happening only about 14% of the time—very close to Gill’s 12% figure from the pre-expansion era.

Even with the playoff format expanding to six games per round since 2020, the pattern of lopsided results has largely persisted, though underdogs have been strong ATS overall in recent postseasons.

You’re spot on about this year’s setup adding extra intrigue: opening lines show three home underdogs entering Wild Card weekend (as of January 5 lines).

My advice is to simply to focus on picking the winner of any particular contest and let the spread take care of itself 86–88% of the time it is sharp—especially in a round known for blowouts or chaos.

Good luck this weekend, Let’s cash some winners!