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This week UFC 298 takes place from Los Angeles with an internationally populated fight slate featuring athletes from China to Equator, Australia to Wales, Brazil to Jamaica and all points in between.
Four fights offer us a look at debuting athletes while eight bouts highlight veteran competitors facing off in high stakes bouts with each combatant looking to enhance their career trajectories.
Last week Rodolfo Viera submitted Armen Petrosyan in the first round of their fight. Petrosyan, needed to survive the first round against a fresh, strong Brazilian counterpart in order to have the fight begin to turn his way yet that was not to be.
I stand 1-3 -.15 heading into this week.
Let’s dig right into UFC 298 which kicks off Saturday at 3pm PT with early prelims followed by the main card which starts at 7pm PT and features a handful of highly competitive and potentially explosive bouts.
Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs. Ilya Topuria +105 Featherweight (145lbs.) Championship
Undefeated and third ranked Topuria, of Georgian descent fights out of Spain where he was raised. He possesses a strong Greco Roman wrestling base to go with his black belt in BJJ. Topuria’s striking is serviceable enough to allow him to compete standing until which time he can clasp onto opponents in order to press them against the cage then force then onto the mat. From there his single point of focus is to choke them unconscious or force then to tap from an array of submission attempts which come as second nature to him.
Topuria, 14-0 professionally and 6-0 in the UFC will be two inches taller than the champion and eight years the younger athlete in this title fight. He sports a +1.39 strike per minute ratio and lands 2.2 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time. He realizes 1.5 submission attempts per fifteen minutes of fight time.
These numbers, while sound must be deciphered by comprehending the level of competition Topuria has faced.
Topuria is young, he’s overly cocky and has talked his way into this championship fight after defeating only two pedigreed, legitimate UFC featherweights. Many deem Topuria ready for this challenge and he must be respected in this bout as he is aggressive, unrelenting with his forward pressure, and arrives to this fight with momentum.
That stated, he has been yammering into any microphone available announcing to anyone listening that it’s his ‘destiny’ to defeat current champion Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria’s bravado and approach to this substantial step up in class seems quite a risky one to say the least and Volkanovski, a silent assassin has taken note.
In Alexander Volkanovski we have arguably the greatest featherweight to ever step into the cage which is a strong statement considering that list includes Jose Aldo and Max Holloway.
Volkanovski’s 26-3 professional record and his 13-2 result in the UFC does not come close to telling the complete story as both of his UFC losses have come at the hands of current UFC Lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. Makhachev has dominated a division ten pound heavier than featherweight. Volkanovski’s only other defeat came years ago in his fourth professional bout in the welterweight division.
Most, if not all combat sport pundits regard Makhachev as the current pound for pound athlete in the organization so those recent losses come with absolutely no shame rather total respect.
At the featherweight level, Volkanovski has dominated all challengers. He owns decision victories over the aforementioned Jose Aldo as well he’s defeated former champion Max Holloway thrice in closely contested five round battles resulting in decisions.
Volkanovski’s +2.77 strikes landed per minute is impressive but even more so when one considers who he has competed against in the cage.
Volkanovski will be giving away two inches of height and eight years of age to Topuria but his recent domination of Yair Rodriguez clearly displays his ability to dominate any and all forms of challenge from athletes competing at featherweight.
The intrigue in this fight comes by understanding that four months ago Volkanovski took his second bout against the aforementioned lightweight champion Makhachev on teen days’ notice! He was defeated by knockout via head kick in the first round.
After that fight and leading up to this bout, Volkanovski, gave a highly emotional interview where he stated how much he needs to be in training. His demeanor and body language during this interview was disturbing to me. It also came out some time later that he was enjoying the spoils of the layman’s life as he had no fight scheduled leading up to his ten-day notice to fight Makhachev.
Volkanovski opened -175 for this fight and he has been bet down to the current price of just above pick-em.
Usually, I’d be dashing for the betting counter looking to invest in Volkanovski -120. However, his highly emotional interview in early January after the Makhachev bout coupled with the fact that he’s taking on another very dangerous challenger four months removed from being knocked unconscious forces me to hesitate.
This will be Volkanovski’s fourth highly competitive fight in the last calendar year and remember two of those were against an elite champion at a weight class ten pounds higher than his.
Has he allowed his body/brain to fully recoup for this battle at thirty-five years of age? Could he be taking this bout too soon after that KO?
These questions force me to pass on this fight despite the perception that there seems to be an abundance of value on the current champion.
Months ago, I released Topuria +135 on the ‘Bout Business Podcast but that was before he began all the needless yapping. If it were today, I would consider Volkanovski at current pricing or I’d pass all together on a side in this fight.
Total in this fight: 3.5 -125 Over
Robert Whittaker -240 vs. Paolo Costa +210 Middleweight (185lbs.)
New Zealand’s Whittaker is a former champion who has faced the elite of the middleweight division. Since 2014, the divisions third ranked athlete has only lost to current champion Dricus du Plessis and former champion Israel Adesanya.
Whittaker is strong, moves deftly and has power in all appendages. He’s highly decorated with Black belts in hapkido, Gōjū-ryū karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu making him one truly dangerous fighting machine.
He’s looking to bounce after what he, myself and many in the MMA arena regard as a most dismal uncharacteristic performance in that loss to du Plessis.
At thirty-three Whittaker believes he has much more to prove and he can go a long way in displaying that against his sixth ranked Brazilian counterpart Paolo Costa Saturday night.
Costa 14-2 professionally is a man with a chiseled physique and movie star looks. He’s decorated with a black belt in BJJ and does possess power in his kicks and strikes. Costa, 6-2 in the UFC has been inactive since August of 2022 when he scored an uneventful decision over Luke Rockhold a washed athlete with a balsa wood beak who had come out of retirement to take the fight.
At his best Costa has profuse striking power but he is a front runner whose confidence and swagger grows when competing against lesser pedigreed athletes but who’s momentum wanes when placed against world class fighters with elite MMA acumen who can withstand his early barrage then turn the tables and back him up.
The prescription for defeating Costa is simple, just bully the bully.
How well Costa has used his time away from the cage will be apparent early in this fight. It’s my judgement that while desperate for a win, the inactivity and relative low fight IQ he’s displayed throughout his career will be difficult traits for him to overcome understanding the elite athlete he’s going to be in the cage with Saturday.
Whittaker’s been in LA for a couple of weeks now and he’s focused and determined to end this fight violently and make another run for the division’s championship which is certainly withing his ability to accomplish.
Whittaker -250
Total in this fight: Opened 1.5 Rds. -240 to the over but is now lined 2.5Rds -150 Over.
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast contains my official releases for this fight card. It will be available Friday just after noon PT and is only available at GambLou.com
Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading
Gembloux
Profitable Sports Gaming