This week UFC 316, a PPV event hits Newark, New Jersey for Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley II the rematch.
The event will be held in the Prudential Center which is situated in the most notoriously corrupt fight commission of all fifty states, Jersey. If one is of the feeling that UFC judging can at times be difficult to figure, then prepare yourselves for New Jersey. You have been warned!
The large cage and a well lubricated Jersey crowd will greet these fighters. There are scheduled thirteen bouts as of this review with five fights at 170lbs and above where the finish rates are highest. This card is a heavy populated by American fighters but there are athletes arriving from China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Moldova to name a few.
This year underdogs jumped out in the early months but since we have seen heavy favorite results.
To date Favorites in the UFC: 127-64-7 64.1% which is about par for most UFC years….
2025 results: 11-14 -3.65u
Merab Dvalishvili -300 vs. Suga’ Sean O’Malley +250 Men’s Bantamweight (135lbs) title
Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks.
Last fall O’Malley, not fully healthy, lost a decision to Dvalishvili where several things were revealed though that competition.
First, that O’Malley may have overestimated his ability to defend a Dvalishvili takedown. Second, that the Dvalishvili fight IQ was absolutely not on the same level at all with his cardio, wrestling takedowns or will.
O’Malley since that defeat last September has removed himself from the public spotlight to concentrate on attempting to wrest his title away from a fighter in Dvalishvili that must begin to be considered a top three Bantamweight of all time!
For O’Malley to recapture the title he will have had to evolve/improve in mixed martial arts repertoire mentally but as importantly physically.
O’Malley strengths are his speed, precision striking ability and athletic movement, but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize. Make no mistake about the fact that he understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and has been attempting to address this shortcoming years ago but with a much more fervent effort these last six months.
Those who claim O’Malley is not nor ever will be the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is, are correct, further, most pundits including myself struggle to believe that the takedown defense needed to fend of ‘the machine’ may not be appropriately developed or refined in a several month period.
That said, as mentioned above O’Malley’s been preparing for this challenge for years and there will be no excuses if Merab is able to chain lighting takedown the slim striker on his way to another efficient victory.
O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last several years will need to be put into much better practice in this rematch.
O’Malley Coach Tim Welch and the fighter fully understand how critical distance control and take down defense will be in this battle especially after being in the cage with Merab.
They now understand the depth of Dvalishvili’s strength, cardio and most especially his will and that the sawed off Dagestani phenom cannot be underestimated.
Dvalishvili is simply an unrelenting chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing the effects of tiring. However, in this rematch he gives away physical advantages in age, height and reach besides precision striking, kicking and overall athletic ability to the former champion O’Malley.
Dvalishvili’s best weaponry in any fight is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure and his deeply seeded belief in his ability to wear any opponent out (See Merab’s last bout against Umar Nurmagomedov for that hard proof).
The Dagestani system/culture of mixed martial arts and the tight clan Dvalishvili trains with compete by not allowing opponents to breathe, think or react because they are constantly fending their pursuer off.
Pressing forward unrelentingly to engage, smother then defeat the opponent is bread into the Dagestani men from birth.
O’Malley’s plans must revolve around setting Merab up for flush fists and knees to the face by moving to create striking angles from a safe distance. O’Malley’s going to have to keep this fight on the feet then by all means available to him, evade the raging bull to maintain the spacing he needs to daze Dvalishvili.
Where O’Malley requires space to flow, Dvalishvili prefers to be affixed to his opponent in strait jacket form so he may force his adversary to spend so much energy defending the takedown, that they are sucked dry when they finally earn some space. Once in said space the challenge is to land strikes on the incoming opponent before getting tied up, pushed to the fence, or forced to the floor.
The Dagestani style of pressure wrestling simply forces opponents to exhaust all their energy defending the attack, from there the fight transitions to the best conditioned athlete.
Now a final point.
We saw Dvalishvili defeat O’Malley last fall, we also saw Merab clown around and take the final round off. I have seen Merab dive headfirst into a frozen lake and hurt himself, it is on tape.
While cardio, wrestling and recent momentum surely ride with Dvalishvili, youth, reach, height and especially fight IQ do not. Those fighting advantages belong to O’Malley.
Let us not forget O’Malley won a couple rounds in that last battle and he was competing with a damaged labrum and little understanding of the actual force of Dvalishvili pressure.
Should Dvalishvili take O’Malley lightly in any manner, or should he err in fight strategy by believing he can simply run through the former champion then Merab could find himself looking up at the lights.
It is my judgement that O’Malley’s going to give us his best fighting performance to date. Will that effort be enough to earn his title back?
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -285
Kayla Harrison -650 vs. Julianna Pena +500 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Title
Harrison is an Olympic gold medal winner in Judo, twice; she has trained with the male Dagestani fighters as habit and simply put she is a physical freak. Harrison competed some fifteen to twenty pounds higher than the 135 lbs, she will need to be able to make 135lbs. on the nose come Friday morning. This is no small detail and will be watched closely by yours truly.
Harrison is large, talented, and tough but she has show little ability to finish well rounded elite mixed martial artists which is what I do consider Pena to be.
Former champion Pena is a junk yard dog of a mixed martial artist. She is mean, well-conditioned and tough as a three-dollar steak. Brought up with kickboxing and supplemented with a purple belt in BJJ, Pena uses intelligence, experience, guile, and her downright nasty nature to eventually overwhelm opponents.
Should Harrison have a difficult cut and even if she does not, I do not believe we can simply overlook Pena’s ability to win this fight.
In my judgement there is well better than a 13.2% chance for Pena to win this fight based on the odds of Harrison -650.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -160
This Under opened -180 and I do agree with the lean from the market to the over in this bout.
Over 4.5Rds -160
See below parlay to the next bout…
Kevin Holland -265 vs. Vicente Luque +235 Welterweight (170lbs)
Feet fight!
This fight comes down to the feet, simply put.
In Vicente Luque we have a proud Brazilian warrior who has been competing against the elite in the welterweight division for the last decade.
A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva empower Luque to walk straight into the heat of battle understanding that should any opponent decide to plant and trade with him, his might and his power striking and his granite chin will earn him victory.
Luque struggles occur when he must move fluently to evade trouble or cut the cage off to initiate it. Luque’s a simple power striker designed to meet in the middle of the cage then ‘throw down.’
In Kevin Holland we get one of the most nimble, athletic mixed martial artists in the division. Holland’s a second-degree black belt in Kung Fu with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.
In any fight, Holland is fluid, flashy, brash and a constant talker when he is dancing in space and peppering opponents with strikes from every appendage and angle.
In this fight he will be the younger fighter, the taller athlete by four inches and he will possess a six-inch reach advantage, all terrific advantages for a fight that is to take place standing.
Holland understands exactly how to apply his trade onto fighters who are unable to catch up to his fluidity of movement and effectively cut off the cage against him.
Holland’s trouble comes against heavy forceful grapplers/wrestlers who can clasp onto him, negate his ability to dance, drag him to the floor then dominate him.
Luque will find it extremely difficult to catch up with the more adroit, evasive, athletic, trash-talking Holland and as his frustration grows so too will Holland’s effectiveness from distance.
Holland -265 to Over 4.5 -160 Harrison/Pena 1u returns 1.24u
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC 316 there.