This week the UFC is in Las Vegas for UFC 320 a PPV event featuring fourteen great mixed martial arts fights headlined by two five round championship bouts. One, a bantamweight title fight in the co main event and second, the main event which give us the long-anticipated rematch of Magomed Ankalaev the current UFC Light Heavyweight titleholder facing the former champion in Alex Pereira.
All fourteen bouts will be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of a boisterous Las Vegas T Mobile arena crowd.
There are seven fights featuring welterweight men and larger which I track because of the higher percentage of finishes for the larger bodied fighters. There are also a few fights featuring fighters with substantial age differences (five or more years) that are of note.
Early Prelims for UFC 320 begin at 3pm PT with Prelims at 5pm PT and finally the PPV portion of the card dropping 7pm PT.
Magomed Ankalaev -240 vs. Alex Pereira +200 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title
Russian Light heavyweight Champion Ankalaev is an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He enters this fight brimming with confidence after having defeated Pereira this past March in relatively one-sided affair.
Ankalaev fights with ‘grappling on his mind’ and while he is effective and powerful with his striking, he is not overly quick, precise, or dazzling in that specialty. Ankalaev relies heavily on his kicking attack as an effective weapon to not only create distance but also back opponents up so he may earn his way into the pocket and transition to his vice grip wrestling ability.
Ankalaev will be the slightly shorter man giving up reach in this fight so the metrics for his success means he must work his way into the pocket and squelch the reach/striking length and thus effectiveness of ‘Poatan’ in order for him to realize success in this fight. He seemed to have little problem gaining inside position in their first fight so it will be interesting to see what if any adjustments each combatant bring to this rematch.
For Pereira, the story is that in UFC competition, his grappling/wrestling and BJJ were only adequate and nowhere near the level of expertise that he holds with his world class kickboxing, Muay Thai striking abilities.
In their first fight it’s my belief that Pereira’s travel and UFC appearances (he missed few UFC events) impeded his ability to train effectively for their first bout especially when we saw how lethargic and listless he looked in battle.
That mentioned we must heap some credit on Ankalaev for basically beating Pereira at his own game…the stand up!
Will Ankalaev utilize a wrestling/grappling heavy approach for this fight in order to change it up on Periera or will he walk the former champion down on the feet in order to corner him and force pressure onto the Brazilian striker in order to sap him of his snap and power?
Pereira’s height, reach and precision power striking/kicking must be utilized more effectively in this fight to back Ankalaev up then appropriating distance, reign damage on the current titleholder.
Ankalaev for his part must back up Periera with forward pressure, constant clutching and even though he did not take Pereira down in the first fight it is my judgement that he will need to in order to retain his title in this bout.
For Pereira, he needs to arrive more prepared to fight in a war, he must utilize his footwork to maintain ideal striking distance then try to time power punches, knees, and elbows onto the incoming grappler when he attempts to force his way inside.
Ankalaev’s Sambo and unrelenting forward pressure must be dealt with and Periera’s adjustments from the first fight will need to be addressed by the current champion as well.
While Pereira’s been training BJJ, and wrestling take down defense with Glover Teixeira constantly we saw little of that art in the first fight as Ankalaev effectively beat Pereira at his own game…stand up striking!
Ankalaev is a fighter with world class mixed martial arts ability however his aura is as exciting as old cardboard.
Ankalaev does not move the public needle in the slightest and while that should never apply in any modern mixed martial arts competition the fact is that the UFC bonus’ fighters for exciting finishes, devastating knockouts and crowd crazed performances of which Ankalaev has never been apt at.
Meanwhile Pereira’s aura, his devasting power and his public following DO move the UFC needle and make little mistake that this rematch was set up to give Pereira (and the UFC) a shot at winning that title back in order to breath fire and intensity into the division again.
Intangibles like this may seem remote and obscure but make little mistake in the fact that the UFC really wants/needs Pereira back as titleholder in order to ‘move the needle’ on viewership for future title shots because with Ankalaev this division is dried out and dormant. Unfortunate but true.
Can ‘Poatan’ find his ‘Chama’ and get the light heavyweight title back in his hands and inject excitement and eyeballs back into the division?
His camp as well the UFC sure hope so!
Ankalaev opened -200 for their first fight and he opened -180 for this one. He now stands -240 with the takeback on Pereira +200.
I am fascinated to determine what Periera will do and can do to change the result of the fight they competed in this past March.
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -170, the March fight’s total was 2.4 and the result was a decision.
Merab Dvalishvili -380 vs. Cory Sandhagen +325 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title
Sandhagen is the forth ranked bantamweight in the division. He is a tall, long highly agile striker who utilizes his length and body frame as effectively as anyone in the organization.
Decorated with a brown belt in BJJ Sandhagen is also highly dangerous on the ground because of the combination of his grappling experience and his physically freakish length.
Sandhagen sports a +1.66 significant strike differential to go along with his take down average of 1,30 per fifteen minutes of fight time. About the only susceptibility Sandhagen has is that because of his unusual length he is open to opponents take downs for he is effective in stopping the takedown only 62% of the time.
In Georgian champion Merab Dvalishvili we get a short, squat, highly motivated cardio machine who is gifted with unbelievable cardio ability, world class wrestling acumen and in the cage, an extremely aggressive nature.
Merab owns the record in the UFC for takedowns as he has realized 97 of them in fifteen UFC bouts for an average of 5.84 take downs per fifteen minutes of fight time.
In fights Merab puts new meaning to ‘unrelenting forward pressure’ a term I use to describe aggressive wrestlers.
Once this fight begins I handicap Sandhagen attempting to use his length, athletic nature and all his savvy to try to maintain striking distance in order to club, knee and elbow Dvalishvili as he rushes to engage in the takedown.
Space, distance and striking will be Sandhagen’s allies in this fight while Merab will strive to enter the pocket on the challenger, clasp onto him then drag him to the floor for a trip to hell.
Dvalishvili is a gifted wrestler who understands that the UFC is looking for excitement and flash finishes. His only potential pitfall in this fight is to believe that he can stand and strike with a much taller man that is a more refined, specialized, and precise striker.
In this fight Merab needs to stick to his strength, come out and ground Sandhagen then put him into the meat grinder for as long as Sandhagen can survive.
Should he come out swinging he could find himself being carried out on his shield.
Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -325
I’ll take the easy route this week and play a main event parlay:
Ankalaev -240 to Dvsalishvili -380 1.28u to earn 1u
Unusual as it is, I am unable to feel confident in any underdog releases this early in the UFC 320 week. Friday my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops and I’m certain to have located a stray mutt or two by then.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.