Miami, FL. Hosts this week’s UFC 327, an event featuring twelve scheduled bouts consisting of well recognized and mostly ranked UFC fighters. There are seven bouts to be held at weight levels of 170lbs. and above so the matchmakers are striving to present violence in Miami as the heavier athletes realize a higher finish rates.
Four of the main card fights highlight larger athletes as well there are five fights scheduled to be waged where one athlete is at least five years younger than their adversary.
Fighters with a youth advantage of six years or greater win their fights at roughly a 63% clip…that rate increases as the age gap widens.
Miami will utilize the large octagon, and it is safe to say the athletes that train in Florida as well the Latino fighters shipping in to compete will hold crowd advantage during their bouts.
One last point is that this fight card features highly competitive bouts as most of these battles are lined at -200 or less to the favorite, I smell some underdogs!
Last week Virna Jandiroba’s size, her experience and her elite grappling together earned her a decision victory over tiny terrorizer Tabitha Ricci which adds another unit of profit to this digital column. We stand 7-7 -.60u on the year.
Let’s Fight!
Jiri Prochazka -125 vs. Carlos Ulberg +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Title
Ulberg ships in from Australia’s City Kickboxing club to take this title opportunity.
9-1 in the UFC Ulberg lost his debut then rattled off nine straight wins. Ulberg’s level of competition faced is actually lacking until recently as he has earned victories in his last three fights against top ten competition in the division albeit competition that is not relevant in the division any longer.
Ulberg, a male model in his spare time is a kickboxing specialist who arrives to competition with athleticism, the ability to move fluently on his feet and certain power in his hands. What Ulberg has not seen yet in UFC competition and what he will not see in this fight is an adversary with world class wrestling/grappling prowess for his adversary in this fight will confound Ulberg with his unorthodoxy not his grappling acumen.
Ulberg’s been fortunate to have competed against an ascending level of varying striking talent thus far in his UFC career. In this fight, his level of competition rises to the pinnacle of the division for Jiri Prochazka is a legitimate top two talent in the division who in the last decade has lost only to Alex Pereira, twice.
Ulberg, currently ranked third in the division has a golden opportunity to earn himself a championship belt but I must ask if he is biting off more than he can chew this early in his ascending career?
In Jiri Prochazka we have a Czech warrior who is as unconventional in his training, his fight arsenal, and his approach to war as there is in the organization.
Prochazka is a black belt in Kyokushin which is a Japanese derivative of Karate so his awkward stance, unconventional approach to movement and his tactics in the cage are only matched by his unorthodox approach to life and fighting for this man is truly an original.
When the bell for this fight clangs, we will witness a couple of 6’4” behemoths who will each look to back the other man up with a steady application of stand up striking.
Ulberg, a man whose wrestling/grappling prowess I suspect is lacking will not have to address that specialty in this fight for Jiri is as singularly dimensioned a striker as is Carlos. What Carlos must be aware of is that he is sometimes stale and inactive in fights. He cannot afford to be ‘watching’ in this one!
This fight sets up to be a stand-up battle waged between a calm, levelheaded, matriculated, structured striker in Ulberg against a free flowing, no holds barred improvisational striker in Prochazka.
Both men possess aggression, strength, power, and experience but in this matchup it’s my judgement that Prochazka’s history of world class athletes faced separates him from Ulberg who has faced complimentary talent only.
The substantial step up in class of opponent is the differentiating matter in this handicap and because of this ascent in competition I must lean to Prochazka here for he has proven himself in the division over time.
Monitoring
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -120
Chris Padilla -180 vs. MarQuel Mederos +160 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Padilla jumped on the UFC scene with an impressive victory over favorite James Liontop in his UFC debut.
Padilla then defeated his next two journeyman adversaries before being tested in his last fight by Ismail Bonfim a fighter who has the ‘name’ but not much ‘fighting game’ for it’s Bonfim’s brother that holds the authentic fighting talent in that family.
Padilla enters this fight with great momentum and a good bit of ‘recency’ attached to his price as I handicap this fight. Padilla’s got good feet, he has power in his strikes and he’s a diversely equipped fighter however he takes on an adversary in this fight that is a substantial level of class above what he has competed against to date.
Mederos trains out of the MMALab in Phoenix, AZ.
He’s a gifted, slick striker with deft footwork, power in all limbs and a wrestling/grappling acumen that provides Mederos the appropriate fighting tools to apply in any adversarial situation a fight may present him with.
These two are closely matched but it is the nuanced striking of Mederos his simplicity that forces me to side with him.
Physically Mederos will sport a slight height advantage while Padilla will have arm reach, but this fight will NOT be decided by the physical attributes of each fighter but their will.
This battle boils down to grit, guts, and grime for these two will batter each other with the understanding that a win here may project the victor into the top fifteen of the division, a division steeped with talent.
Padilla, who rides in with some public awareness, opened -150 for this fight. There is bias in his price based on that recency as he now stands -180.
This fight should be priced much tighter for the power, strike defense and grappling of Mederos, who has been relatively absent from the cage for a few months must account for some premium while Padilla’s recent win over Bonfim may be seen as more of an accomplishment by the public than it truly is.
Saturday night Mederos will have the opportunity to move on up the lightweight ladder. He must defeat a confident power puncher in Padilla, and I believe over three long rounds he’ll earn a tough decision victory.
Mederos +160
Mederos points handicap will be released later this week and that wager may make great fiscal sense depending on price….
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -220
Lean Over
Curtis Blaydes -125 vs. Josh Hokit +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.)
Simple power punching athlete Josh Hokit has obliterated two straight UFC opponents and now the UFC gives him the opportunity to try to touch glass jawed Curtis Blaydes.
Should he be successful, a win would propel Hokit a fighter the UFC loves and wants to see succeed, into the top of an oh so thin division while it would basically end Blaydes run as a legitimate top five fighter in the division.
The UFC has never liked Blaydes nor his dominant form of wrestling, so they bombard him with young, fast, powerful strikers to try to eliminate him. The issue is that Blaydes is stubborn and one damn accomplished wrestling based mixed martial artist. The cat just won’t go away!
Blaydes level of competition faced and the fact his wrestling is the standard bearer in the division coupled with his angst that he is constantly having to fend off these young up and comers (see Jailton Almeida) is providing him great focus and intensity for this fight.
Blaydes -125 is an absolutely bargain price as he opened -160 which I view as more than attractive and affordable. It’s my position that he will smear Hokit all over the canvass Saturday in a one-sided wrestling display.
Let’s parlay
Blaydes -125 to Tatsuru Taira -180*
*Taira faces Flyweight Champion Josh Van May 9th in New Jersey.
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all major podcast platforms as well on GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!