From the epic production that was the violence filled UFC 319, to a more boutique Fight Night event we go! This week’s UFC FN Shanghai will kick off at Midnight PT with the preliminary card then at 3am PT the main card will drop.
There are twelve bouts from this Shanghai fight card currently scheduled, a large cage will be in use and a full hose crowd of Chinese fight fans eager to enjoy mixed martial arts battles will be present, they’re as passionate as any fanbase anywhere.
We’ll see five bouts where there exists a greater than five-year age difference between combatants. This is important to understand as athletes with six years of youth advantage historically realize a 62%-win advantage.
There are six local Chinese athletes featured on the card, and they face a smattering of athletes from across the globe and in almost each case the local/regional athlete is presented with advantage, because they face opponents five or more years elder than they.
In four of the five fights where there is a five year or greater age difference …lo and behold it is the local Chinese athlete that are the beneficiary of that advantage.
There are five ‘big boi’ fights where men weighing 170 pounds or more compete. These fights often end in or with a finish.
The UFC knows exactly what it’s doing (presenting local area athletes with a relatively advantageous opponent situation) when it exports its product outside the U.S. as their zeal to expand the brand is unquenchable.
Last week I rode with the defending Champion middleweight Dricus du Plessis believing he would bully his opponent, the favored Kamzat Chimaev in their title bout. I could not have been more incorrect. Chimaev made DDP look like he had never competed in a wrestling competition as well he made me look like I have not been handicapping fights for some forty-five plus years!
On we go!
Mingyang Zhang -340 vs. Johnny Walker +290 Light Heavyweight (205lbs) main event
Brazilian Walker was training in Ireland and has now moved his training to Las Vegas’ Xtreme Courture. Walker is the thirteenth ranked fighter in the division. He is a brown belt in BJJ and an extremely dangerous, powerful striker. Walker is highly athletic and unusually structured for a light heavyweight talent.
Finding athletes who are keenly coordinated, nimble afoot and that carry natural God given power are rare in combat sports, but Walker has the tools to destroy any adversary in any fight and at any time.
Walker’s 6’5” frame coupled with his dynamic litheness are facets opposing fighters all struggle with for Walker is aggressive, able to move with fluidity and he’s extraordinarily strong and powerful with all his striking weaponry.
What Walker struggles with is something that a fighter is never able to overcome or improve, and this shortcoming has cost Walker his positionwith in the elite of the division because of this shortcoming.
His shortcoming is his lack of ability to take a flush fist to the face.
Since 2023 Walker’s realized a 0-2-1 mark in the UFC. His lack of ability to evade power strikes is a shortcoming he must address one way or another because if he could employ his athleticism to more effectively evade incoming power punches he would be better suited to realize success and dynamic., violent success at that.
At the heart of the issue for Walker is his inability to absorb legitimate light heavyweight striks to his head. Since 2019 Walker has lost six of eleven fights and in all six losses he was knocked unconscious.
Trying to navigate a ‘balsa wood beak’ in today’s light heavyweight division of the UFC is close to an impossible task which is why Walker, who is well equipped in all aspects of mixed martial arts is the sizable underdog he is to this relatively novice athlete Zhang who has but three UFC battles under his belt.
In fact, it is my judgement that Walker’s been placed in this position to serve as ‘patsy’ for Zhang in this fight because Walker’s lack of ability to take a knock to the nose feeds right into Zhang’s strength which is power striking.
In the aforementioned Mingyang Zhang we have a relatively new, developing UFC talent. Zhang is used to being the taller, longer athlete in the cage so for this fight he will have to navigate Walker’s size, length, kicking acumen, experience, and profuse punching power.
Zhang’s a fighter who began to refine his Sanda* fighting style/expertise in a Shaolin Monastery as a youth developing his craft. Eventually he earned a blue belt in BJJ to go with that expertise and today Zhang arrives to this fight the next big, hyped athlete in the UFC from China.
While Zhang is a heavy favorite for this battle, I believe that Walker’s experience, his size, length, and razor-sharp striking style will provide him plenty of opportunity to shine in this fight.
The ultra-athletic Walker, must evade the slow, telegraphed power strikes from Zhang who is nowhere near as nimble afoot or athletic as Walker. Walker stands in great position to be able to defeat a man much less athletically equip than he, however, should Walker incur one or more power strikes from Zhang, he is liable to crumple to the floor like a dropped bag of sand.
The price screams for me to give Walker a chance in this spot but Walker’s porcelain chin forces me to think twice about backing him.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -300
That total verifies that one man is going to potentially bludgeon the other…. which man Clobber’s and which man gets clobbered I am not certain, but what I am feeling confident about is the Over and more particularly the prop ‘fight starts round 2’ which will be out later this week.
Lone’er Kavanaugh -205 vs. Charles Johnson +180 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Kavanaugh from England is 9-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC. Kavanaugh is short, squat, powerful and well rounded for he can wrestle.
Johnson arrives to China off a loss in his last bout after rattling off four straight UFC wins prior. He has numerous physical advantages in this fight. He is the taller man by five inches; he sports a three-inch reach advantage with both legs and arms. Johnson also owns advantage in level of competition faced and of course UFC experience.
Once the bell for this fight rings the test for Kavanaugh will be to penetrate Johnson’s length/striking to earn his way inside the pocket where he can mute Johnson’s striking prowess while doing damage to the longer taller fighter via his power striking and kicks.
For Johnson, this fight is all about distance and whether he can maintain it appropriately and by all means keep this fight standing so he can execute a plan that entails ‘painting Kavanaugh’s fence’ as the shorter Englishman attempts to work his way inside.
These two men are Flyweight athletes vying in a large cage which often means a decision fight. Proof of that statement is evidenced by this fight’s total which is currently lined 2.5rds Over -335!
That total attests to the fact that this fight will be like watching two wasps warring in a mason jar. At the end of the day, Johnson’s experience, size, and length make the difference here as well he can be captured as an underdog.
Johnson +180
The ‘Bout Business’ Podcast will have all my final releases available sometime Friday before mid-day PT. Remember fight fans this card kicks off in the wee hours of Saturday morning PT so be prepared to enjoy a little OJ with your Omaplata!
Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!
*Sanda is a Chinese form of mixed martial arts that combines kicking, striking, and grappling.