This week the UFC returns to its APEX for LV 106, a fight card that is currently scheduled for twelve fights. Prelims begin at 1pm PT with the main card dropping 4pm PT.
There are only three fights with athletes weighing 170 lbs. or more on this event and while there is little name recognition for many fight fans, we will have athletes competing in this production arriving from Brazil (ten athletes) Ecuador, Scotland, Cuba, Nigeria, and Uzbekistan.
Both the main event and co main event are lined prohibitively in favor of the favorite but there are other battles on this card that I believe offer bettors opportunity.
Last week I dropped the Muhammad/Fiorot parlay losing 1unit. This year’s results stand: 10-13 -3.70u
Michael Morales -750 vs. Gilburt Burns +575 Welterweight (170lbs) main event.
Twelfth ranked welterweight Michael Morales is young, strong, explosive, versed in both wrestling and Judo and has fight ending power in his strikes/kicks.
Morales has soared up the welterweight rankings after decimating all five of his UFC adversaries to date, but this fight represents a certain step up in class of opponent.
Morales has not faced the level of competition that his opponent Gil Burns has, nor does he possess the depth of championship experience that Burns does but what Morales lacks in experience and championship savvy he makes up for with an explosive, violent fighting arsenal.
In Gil Burns we have a thirty-eight-year-old Brazilian warrior decorated handsomely with a third-degree black belt in BJJ and complimented with a depth of experience catch wrestling and striking compliments of Henri Hooft.
Burns was a world class lightweight athlete who struggled mightily with the weight cut to 155lbs.
Now, in his late thirties he is forced to compete against men much younger, larger, and more explosive than he all advantages challenging for a veteran trying desperately to keep his position withing the division.
Burns mixed martial arts pedigree, his depth of championship experience and the elite level of foes he has faced in his career make him a reasonable barometer for the less experienced but rapidly ascending talent in Morales.
The current price on Morales is a bit too extreme yet it must be understood that while the experience and pedigree land with Burns, the UFC has been allowing younger ascending fighters do their roster cutting for them.
I believe the Burns approach must be to smother Morales striking by rushing into him, grappling/pressing him, and then immediately trying to drag him to the ground where he is more dangerous.
At thirty-eight and after waging war in the UFC for some ten plus years against absolute elite fighters between two divisions, it is reasonable to think that Burns will have his hands full with this dangerous Ecuadorian athlete.
Morales for his part is going to try to maintain distance, remain measured and with premeditation, try to knock the block off Burns shoulders with an array of strikes/elbows/kicks as Morales understands that striking is his advantage and grappling with Gil could prove extremely dangerous.
This total is lined 3.5Rds under -120 currently.
I will look at the props once released for angles on this most obtusely lined main event.
Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)
Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for his third UFC battle.
He is a chiseled and heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.
Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted quickly.
Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue however is that Bellato is offensive and has yet to refine a strike defense that allows a whopping 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition!
In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev.
Craig is also a large man however his body type falls more under ‘dadbod’ than sculpted or chiseled. His striking is inept for this level of mixed martial arts as it is his prowess in grappling/submission ability that has gotten Craig into the organization and onto this fight Saturday.
Fascinating about this co main three round war and the difference in fighter ability is that Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig while these men are standing. For Craig, should he be able to ground the Bear sized Brazilian he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker especially if the fight gets past round one.
Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?
I lean to Craig.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -135
Mairon Santos -130 vs. Sodiq Yusuff +110 Featherweight (145lbs.)
On March 8th Santos was awarded a decision in a fight that he absolutely did not earn against Frances Marshall. We had Marchall in the points handicap thus winning that wager but the straight bet on Marshal as a decent dog was stolen from investors by the ineptitude of the judging that usually rears its grotesque head sometimes unexpectedly during each fight event.
Now the twenty-four-year-old Santos gets the quick turnaround to compete in the UFC for the third time this weekend.
Fighting out of Las Vegas, Santos, who is undefeated brings superior footwork, power striking and high volume to his opponents. Realizing a +1.81 significant striking advantage has served Santos well to date, however the forward pressure applied to him in that last fight from Marshall should provide Santos’ opponent with a simple plan for success in this fight. Forward pressure!
Yusuff is a grizzled UFC veteran of nine UFC battles. He has realized a 6-3 tally during that span and those three losses, they were against elite, top ranked fighters in the division in Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza and most recently Diego Lopes.
Those losses add a premium to Yusuff’s resume as I handicap it because those confrontations with the elite of the division are the foundation for refining one’s overall skills and development as a world class mixed martial artist.
Yusuff strikes using angles to enhance precision. He holds a positive significant strike differential over previous opponents of 1.25 significant strikes per round and the Yusuff strikes are power based. Yusuff is the busier striker between these two and he is the more powerful striker as well.
Yusuff, a blue belt in BJJ arrives off a loss to top ranked fighter Diego Lopes, to which there is no shame. He returns to the octagon focused and eager to jump into the top fifteen of the division with an impressive victory here.
Yusuff is the more complete fighter even though the twenty-four-year-old Santos will hold youth and speed/quickness advantages in this fight.
In summary, Yusuff’s experience, his well-rounded fight arsenal, and the fact that he’s competed against the elite of the division force me to dive on Yusuff as an underdog here like a fumble in the Superbowl!
Yusuff +110
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with all my final releases for this fight card enclosed. Access it at GambLou.com.
Enjoy the fighting and thank you for reading!