Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Taira vs. Park: Park sparked?

UFC Las Vegas 108 takes place from the APEX facility where a smaller twenty-five-foot octagon will be in use. Few fans can attend these events now but soon enough APEX will be finished with a facility expansion which will allow more fans to be able to take in these quaint, boutique fight slates.

The main event of this card had not one but two cancellations for the originally scheduled flyweight fighter Tatsura Taira who now fights a short notice replacement from South Korea in undefeated Hyun Sung Park.

Park travels around the globe on short notice to take a fight against Taira but for Taira this is also unsettling because he now prepares to fight a third athlete that he has only days to prepare for.

The short notice aspect of this fight is fascinating for Park must mentally prepare to both travel across the globe then make the 126-pound weight limit while Taira, the beneficiary of a full camp, must prepare stylistically for his third opponent.

I mention here often what a fantastic job the UFC does to keep these forty-three to forty-five fight cards each year held together as these athletes get injured, have visa issues, get sick and on occasion side-step opponents. Dealing with the issues, the personalities, and the egos of these fighter’s day in and day out to keep these fight cards interesting for fans should not be underestimated.

Last week we took advantage of a rare two-unit victory with a value laden Russian grappler in Assu Almabaev who dominated pace in his fight against the up-and-coming Peruvian Jose Ochoa. Almabaev opened -400 and we were able to bet him -110 which is why we upped the investment to two units.

We add two units to this year’s accounting for a 2025 tally of 15-17 -1.32u

Tatsuro Taira -300 vs. Hyun Sung Park +260 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

As mentioned in the opening, Taira takes on Park in a short notice bout for each fighter. That said, it is Taira who is the beneficiary of a full training camp.

Taira enters off a loss to Brandon Royval in which he picked up tremendous amount of experience albeit in a loss but to a legitimate title contender in the division. At 16-1 Taira enters this fight on the bounce and prepared to make amends for his last setback.

Taira is a world class grappler and submission specialist, but he is also a capable striker. His sixteen wins show seven wins via submission, five via the KO/TKO and four decision wins.

That fight against Royval in my judgement makes Taira a forceful figure in the division now based on his fight weaponry, his growing experience, his youthfulness, and his drive.

For the 10-0 South Korean Park, this is a tremendous opportunity to endear himself to the UFC by first, trying to win a battle against a ranked opponent but second and as importantly, to do the UFC a favor by taking a fight across the globe against a highly talented and ranked adversary on short notice.

*As a side note for the UFC to have to settle on the South Korean Park for a fight in Las Vegas, we must understand that there had to be a bevy of local US fighters who said no to taking on Taira in this spot for the UFC.

Park enters this fight 3-0 in UFC competition, but this fight signifies a substantial step up in class because Park has not competed against any gifted let alone world class mixed martial artists prior to this battle.

These fighters are similar in size, but Taira will have height, reach and experience advantages that substantiate his favorite price as I handicap this bout.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Mateusz Rebecki -205 vs. Chris Duncan +180 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Fight enthusiasts best not miss this barn burner!

Polish wrestling talent Rebecki is short, squat, powerful, determined and on the ascent in the division after answering a loss to Diego Ferriera with a most impressive victory over Myktybek Orolbai.

Rebecki who uses his sawed-off physique as a weapon possesses a positive strike differential to couple with his unrelenting takedown success for he averages almost four take downs per round as well he fends off 75% of incoming take downs which is impressive especially after that bout against the most formidable wrestling talent Oralbai.

For the Scotsman Duncan, he boasts close to the same staggering success in both significant strike differential as well take downs executed per five rounds. However, what Duncan has struggled with and something that may well be foundational in this fight is his ability to stop takedowns for his success rate is a paltry 37% which is a glaring statistic for anyone confronting Rebecki.

Duncan, should he be able to keep this fight standing will hold height and reach advantages and I will even give him the striking edge, but he must keep this scrap standing because if the unrelenting Rebecki can haul Duncan to the mat, Polish wrestling dominance will be displayed.

Rebecki opened -221 for this matchup and his price has dipped just a bit. This fight will be determined by Duncan’s take down defense for if he can keep this on the feet, he has advantage, but should this fight hit the floor look for the polish Rebecki to flog the Scot.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -210 vs. Neil Magny +180 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Brazilian Capoeira fighting specialist Elizeu utilizes his stout, compact frame to hurl flamboyant, creative, and yet devastating spinning heels, elbows and knees towards opponents understanding that when one lands it destroys.

The issue for the well versed Zaleski is that he is now thirty-eight and 1-2 in his last couple of UFC competitions.

Zaleski still sports a positive strike differential per five minutes of fight time and when Elizeu lands any shot, the target opponent often crumbles for Zaleski invests tremendous energy into every single one of his strike offerings.

Zaleski can grapple and his take down defense formidable for Zaleski is most dangerous and at his best when competing in a stand-up battle.

For Neil Magny this is a foundational fight. Magny arrives to this war having lost three of his last four which on paper should be a red flag, however we must understand who Magny has faced in these last four bouts!

Sure Magny’s lost to Mike Morales, Carlos Prates, and Ian Machado Garry with a win against ascending welterweight Mike Mallot, but those three losses were to elite killers in the division.

So Magny enters desperate and used to facing absolute killers while Elizeo arrives after having been bullied by nominally talented striker Chidi Njokuani.

Based on Magney’s physical advantages of age, height, reach and level of competition faced I must regard him as being more positioned to compete effectively against Zaleski than the current betting line indicates.

In a fight lined 2.5 Rds. Over -185 I really favor Magny’s changes here to compete effectively wherever this fight takes place, on the mat, against the fence or standing.

Magny +180

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops on Friday morning at GambLou.com, all my final releases for this car may be access there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast Drops Monday?

This week’s UFC slate has been shaken by the loss of the scheduled main event. Once the card becomes official with new headliners and lines are available, I will post this week’s opening line report.

Thank you for your patience but I can’t handicap confrontation unless official bouts are announced.

It’s ‘Bout Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Abu Dhabi: Saturday morning Submissions!

9am PT Preliminary Action drops!

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the VSiN digital breakdown for UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi.

This card from the UAE kicks off at 9am PST with preliminary fights then the main card drops at 11am PST, so prepare accordingly for a morning full of mauling’s.

This Fight Night slate is scheduled for twelve bouts. The athletes will compete in the large thirty’ cage and background noise will be prevalent as a raucous Saudi/Muslim crowd will jam into the arena to take in the violence.

There is but one woman’s fight on this card which is notable because it is a rarity to get a female fight when the organization travels to the UAE.

Six of our twelve bouts feature men weighing 170lbs and above and if the trend of the last couple of weeks remains intact, then this card too should produce a flurry of frenetic finishes.

There are fewer aged athletes participating in this week’s slate than in the past couple of fight cards as there are but four fighters aged thirty-five and above. Further, the age spreads on this card have tightened considerably as there are only three fights where there exists an age gap larger than five years…. Again, six years’ youth advantage equates to a 64%-win percentage in the UFC fight enthusiasts.

Last week I captured excellent value in the Dan Ige -175 release as he closed -220 however capturing the best of the number is but one aspect of realizing bottom line profitability in sports gaming. The most important aspect however is having the appropriated fighter perform at their best. While Ige performed well, his opponent performed better and earned victory.

Such is the fight game.

It’s time to make a run!

Robert Whittaker -135 vs. Renier de Ritter +115 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

De Ritter, three fights into his UFC career, enters this main event ranked twelfth in the division and off three victories against modestly talented UFC competition.

A decorated world class grappler with only decent striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto his opponent in this (or any) matchup then begin to envelope them with his strength and judo experience.

De Ritters striking is base, the snap on his strikes and his ability to evade strikes is negligible save for the force by which he rushes into opponents to envelope his limbs around them then drag them to the mat.

De Ritter’s plan in any fight is the singular: press opponent against the fence, clutch opponent to maul them down to the mat then gain top position in order to snap a limb, choke the neck, or play the ground and pound game.

This will be the de Ritter blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for his survival because if he is unable to wrangle Whittaker to the canvas, then he is likely to be pieced up by the forceful punches, kicks, elbows, and knees of Whittaker.

Save for a loss to current champion Duplessis in late 2023 which was an off night for Whittaker, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years until he faced formidable grappling talent Kamzat Chimaev in his last battle.

Against the world class grappling pressure applied by Chimaev, Whittaker looked lost and overwhelmed and in short time Chimaev grounded Whittaker then ‘neck cranked’ him into submission.

When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from de Ritter because it is a surety that de Ritter has studied that Chimaev vs. Whittaker tape.

De Ritter will take every measure he can to duplicate Chimaev’s diligent forward pressing aggression, his takedown effectiveness, and submission prowess in order to negate Whittaker’s striking dominance while simultaneously forcing the striker to expend energy defending takedowns as opposed to lighting up the Dutchman with his dukes.

The foundation question for this fight is simply this: Can Whittaker stop the groundings and keep this fight on the feet?

Where this bout takes place will be absolutely proportionate to who is in control for on the feet de Ritter will have little for Whittaker and on the ground in a grovel it will be difficult for Whittaker to compete with the elite grappling talent that is Renier de Ritter despite the fact that Whittaker’s wrestling is competent.

Whittaker opened -180 for this fight and the money to date has flowed in on the challenger.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds pick-em

Shara Magomedov -300 vs. Marc Andre’ Barriault +250 Middleweight (185lbs)

Magomedov is a Dagestani fighter who lost an eye sometime during his fighting career. He is a wildly popular fighter in the Muslim world, and I say that because he seems to be unable to compete outside of his home country for reasons not pertinent to this column.

When he does compete it is usually against an opponent hand chosen and designed to provide him with the type of fight that fans wish to see, a stand-up battle.

In Magomedov’s last bout they gave him an athletic, fleet footed and experienced striker in Michael Page and Page painted the slower, more deliberate Magomedov’s fence in a one-sided decision.

Stand up fights provide Magomedov not only a fight he can compete in but one he is likely to win for Magomedov himself is relatively slow, he is susceptible to left hands/kicks because his right eye is the nonfunctioning orbital and he can gas as the fight wears on.

He just needs pedestrian competition for anyone close to elite will paint this man’s fence.

While Magomedov’s appearance makes him look ominous, his fight arsenal scares few competent athletes in the division.

For this fight, the UFC hand-picked a large, slow, hittable fellow striker to compete against Magomedov and that fighter’s name is Canadian ship in Marc-Andre’ Barriault an athlete willing to share the cage with the local favorite and try to springboard up the rankings by earning victory over the local Dagestani fighter.

Barriault, primarily a durable, tough power striker who carries a blue belt in BJJ into his fights arrives to this battle off a win against Brazilian Bruno Silva after having dropped his last three bouts.

Two of those losses were via the KO so it seems clear to me that in this matchup the UFC designed this confrontation to both provide Magomedov with a favorable opponent but an opponent that is relatively stationary and one that will be there for him to batter much to the delight of the Muslim crowd in attendance.

This seems a clear example of a set up fight for Magomedov.

Total in this fight stands 1.5Rds Over -160

Asu Almabaev -110 vs. Jose Ochoa -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Ochoa, a power striker from Peru is 1-1 in the UFC. He is aggressive, athletic, and willing to enter the firestorm for striking exchanges at any time.

He is undefeated save for a decision loss to Lone’er Kavanagh, his debut fight into the UFC. Ochoa followed that loss with a very impressive finish win over the durable Cody Durden in his last bout.

In Almabaev we have a talented world class grappler/wrestler from Kazakhstan. Almabaev is well equipped on the feet, and his well-rounded fight arsenal sets him up to be a viable contender in the division for years to come.

Entering this fight off a loss to Manuel Kape is no embarrassment for Almabaev rather it is a badge of honor for Kape, when he competes like he did in his battle against Almabaev, is clearly the top threat to current champion Alexandre Pantoja.

When this fight opened it was Almabaev who came the -400 chalk and while that is a high number the fact that he was favored is what we need to take from the opener.

In fleeting time Ochoa was bet and bet hard into the current pricing on this fight which stands at pick-em.

Ochoa’s striking is stellar, and his strike defense is also above par but his wrestling and especially his take down defense stands at 66% which is quite lacking especially given the competition he has faced.

In this fight it is my judgement that Almabaev will navigate Ochoa into the second round and beyond by mixing in takedowns and effective striking. He will journey the twenty-four-year-old into the later minutes of this fight where his wrestling acumen and cardio will be able to turn the tides on the frontrunning Peruvian puncher.

The value on Almabaev who had decimated four opponents prior to fighting Kape is too much for me to overlook here. Ochoa is ripe and Almabaev has too much experience and wrestling ability for this fight to be lined as it is.

Almabaev -110 2u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

On Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop only at GambLou.com. Get my final releases for the card there and thank you for reading.

Enjoy the fights from Abu Dhabi!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 318 Poirier vs. Holloway for the BMF Championship

New Orleans, LA. Is the location for this week’s UFC 318, a PPV event featuring fourteen bouts with early preliminary action beginning 3:15pm PT, prelims kick at 5pm PT then the PPV portion of the event drops at 7pm PT.

A large thirty-foot octagon and a house full of overserved swamp rats will cheer for the local athletes of which Dustin Poirier is but two Louisiana natives on the card.

Of the fourteen fights, nine take place at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above and of those nine, eight are placed in the prelims of this card so violence begins early and runs throughout the slate!

Again this week we have some ‘mature’ athletes hitting the cage. The UFC is offering us seven bouts where the age difference exceeds five years.

As discussed last week, the fact that younger athletes particularly in matchups where they are also taller and have limb reach over the opponent hold abnormal advantage especially if the fight plays out to be waged on the feet.

Last week eight of nine younger fighters facing older competitors earned victory with the only exception being Derrick Lewis, who arrived with experience and level of competition faced advantage.

It pays to undertake the appropriate due diligence when assessing these bouts.

The Favorite/Dog count for last week was 8-4 making favorites in 2025 65.2%.

Let’s Fight!

Dustin Poirier +105 vs. Max Holloway -125 Lightweight (155lbs) main event

Trilogy fight

This fight is for the ‘BMF’ title that the UFC created some years ago. Further, this fight is the third between these two men with Poirier, a Louisiana native having won the first two bouts, the first in dominant fashion when Max debuted in the UFC and took the fight on oh so short notice, and the second, for the lightweight title in 2019 when Poirier won in a close decision.

Poirier opened -150 for this fight, but he has now been bet into the underdog position while money has come in on his opponent. Many fight investors are wary when athletes announce retirement BEFORE a fight, and I believe this has much to do with the line movement in this fight.

Poirier is a black belt in BJJ with dynamic boxing credentials, he is the former lightweight interim champion who has competed against the elite of this division for several years.

Poirier will be the older athlete, the shorter athlete, and the athlete with a deficit in arm/leg reach which together and with the retirement announcement help explain why this line has been ebbing toward Holloway.

Poirier packs profuse power in his strikes/kicks, he is a formidable wrestler and has great durability and cardio. He takes this challenge after realizing a 1-2 record over the last couple of years losing to Justin Gaethje via finish as well Islam Makhachev in the same manner.

Poirier is a pressure fighter will look to force Holloway backwards in this fight, keep him on his heels and attack the longer, taller man with the formidable power of his striking/kicking.

It is inside the pocket, pressed against the fence and in toe-to-toe confrontation that Poirier will hold his greatest advantage for his strength and unrelenting forward pressure factor favorably for him.

Max Holloway the current ‘BMF’ title holder gives the Louisianan Poirier, a former BMF titleholder the opportunity to retire with that BMF belt but make little mistake, Holloway is not doing this for Poirier, rather he’s doing this to destroy Poirier in this third fight and ride off with a win, the BMF belt and a future championship bout in this lightweight division.

Holloway, thirty-three, has fully evolved into the lightweight frame, and he retains his snap, quickness, and his fleet-footed ability all while enhancing the power/effectiveness of his strikes.

Holloway, except for his last battle against Topuria, has been able to evade incoming power punches and land counters off the aggression of opponents then attack once the incoming opponent is harmed.

Holloway’s height, reach and length (arms/legs) position him advantageously in this brawl …. while it remains standing.

Holloway’s significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time stands at +2.4 while Poirier’s ratio stands +.97 significant strikes landed per round. What this highlights is the activity and volume of Max while also displaying the lower volume higher impact/power of Poirier.

Once the bell for round one rings, I expect each man to begin to try to systematically beat the other man down. These men have a total of six rounds against each other in prior competition, so I envision few surprises, few new twists, rather I envision two proud, stubborn warriors each hunting to incapacitate the other.

Poirier has the more daunting task because when these two last tangled Poirier was thirty-one while max was twenty-eight, now thirty-six and on the shelf since June of last year, Poirier prepares for a final confrontation that will take his best effort to win.

Holloway does not enter this battle unscathed! He arrives off a devastating KO at the hands of Ilya Topuria last year in October, so each man enters this battle off a damaging loss.

Two forceful, proud, world class fighters who are as capable mentally as they are physically, men who are intimately familiar with each other will meet in the middle of a thirty-foot cage this Saturday in New Orleans to determine which warrior walks out of the cage with the BMF belt.

In my estimation this is an ultimate competition and one that may not make it to the final bell!

What more could we ask for in a main event?

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -140

Roman Kopylov -250 vs. Paolo Costa +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main

Roman Kopylov, fourteenth ranked in the division is a Russian striker with deep background in combat sambo. Kopylov arrives at this fight having earned victory in his last two in a row pushing his UFC tally to 6-3.

His loss two fights back was to legitimate top ten middleweight Fluffy Hernandez is the only thing preventing Kopylov from entering the top ten of this division.

In this fight, he enters with a slight reach advantage and a negligible significant strike differential. Yes, Kopylov accepts just as many significant strikes as he unleashes.

Kopylov is versed in wrestling/grappling but utilizes that skill only when needed because he prefers to use his height and reach to deploy his striking offense on opponents.

Thirteenth ranked Brazilian hotwire Paolo Costa has a size/athletic advantage over Kopylov in this fight besides being the more explosive combatant. Costa is the more experienced fighter because he has competed against numerous top ranked adversaries.

The brazen Brazilian is a paltry 1-4 in his last several UFC competitions albeit against elite competition within the division. Costa’s performances sway between confounding and impressive based upon nothing that I have been able to detect or handicap.

Costa is a true pariah.

When mentally/physically prepared to fight for a full three rounds Costa may be regarded as a legitimate top ten talent in the division.

The issue with Costa is his lack of appropriate mental preparation, his flakey focus and his fleeting fortitude for Costa enjoys all aspects of life that tend to corrode elite fighting talent.

What he has shown a propensity to detest are stringent training, mental discipline, and innate confidence.

What is certain is that Kopylov enters this fight prepared to do anything he can to steal Costa’s reputation and ranking.

What is not certain (in this or any other battle for that matter) is the mental condition and physical conditioning of Costa entering this fight.

For this reason I will choose to watch this bout because there is no way to trust the approach in this or any fight from Paolo Costa.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -200

That total indicates Costa competence…. something I am unwilling to invest in.

Dan Ige -175 vs. Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire +145 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Freire, ‘Pitbull’ as he is nicknamed, is a thirty-eight year old legend of mixed martial arts who never had the chance to compete in the UFC until his last fight where they presented him a taller, longer, younger, ranked opponent in number three ranked featherweight Yair Rodriguez who made Pitbull look his age in a unanimous decision loss.

Now Pitbull turns it around just twelve weeks after that one-sided decision loss to Rodriguez.

Pitbull is a warrior and if given the chance to compete in the UFC six years ago he would have been able to display his world-class talent and without doubt would have competed for a title. But at this age, and after the attrition he has incurred from a lifetime of mixed martial arts his skills are waning, his reaction time is slowing and his ability to navigate in front of larger, younger men is waning.

Pitbull’s opponent for this bout is none other than eleventh ranked Dan Ige who notably took the fight last summer against Diego Lopes on hours’ notice and fought an excellent fight in losing a decision.

Ige is afforded advantage in this fight that he rarely realizes in that he is five years the younger fighter, he is an inch the taller man and he holds a six-inch reach advantage.

Add to that the fact that Ige’s been set back each time he fights an elite top ten talent and we have the recipe for a focused driven Dan Ige here who is prepared to utilize his physical advantages as well as his youth and quickness to further expose the proud aged Pitbull in a fight that I see going to decision.

Ige -175 is the favorite in this fight, and I must say that this price is very affordable given the dynamics of this fight.

Ige -175*

*I’ll use Ige -175 as the first leg of a parlay and pair him with a fighter from next week’s slate, D’Mon Blackshear -258 who battles England’s Davey Grant at UFC Abu Dhabi

This one-unit investment returns 1.19u

Total in this fight 2.5Rds over -280

Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off a 5-0 weekend last week so join me at GambLou.com to access this week’s UFC 318 releases!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Nashville: Insane in ‘the Train’

This week the UFC takes us to good Ol’ Rocky Top Nashville, Tennessee where a scheduled twelve bout fight card, a large cage, and a room full of tuned up Tennesseans will gather to take in what I believe will be one of the most violent cards of the year.

I say this based on a couple of factors.

First, seven of the twelve scheduled bouts are going to be waged at 170lbs and above where power is abundant and finish rates reflect it.

Second, twelve of the twenty-four athletes on this slate are at least thirty-three years old as well this card features nine fights where there exists a greater than 5-year age gap between competitors.

Fighters competing against one another under a four year or better youth advantage win 59.5% of the time according to the information Reed Kuhn has published in his book Fightnomics.

In these nine bouts Saturday the age difference is not just a year or two…. In the main event there is a 15-year spread, co-main you ask? Fourteen years variance. Those are the most obtuse of the nine matchups but suffice it to say many athletes on this slate enter the cage with numeric advantage.

To date favorites in the UFC stand 65.2% which is on the high end of yearly UFC averages… Let us hope UFC 317’s 9-1-1- result is not reproduced in Nashville for my bankroll cannot take that.

Last week we won with Beniel Dariush as he was simply the better mixed martial artist.

Tallison Teixeira -280 vs. Derrick Lewis +240 Heavyweight main event

Lewis is the all-time knockout king in UFC history.

Now forty years old, Lewis is a rotund athlete with little technical fighting ability. He does possess profuse power in his hands, and he compliments that fight ending power with focused ill intent.

He has competed against the elite of the division for better than a decade and separated the majority of his foes from consciousness because for Lewis, it takes but one Sunday shot to end a fight.

Lewis’s UFC experience, cage IQ and raw street fighting tactics are equaled only by his complete lack of appropriate conditioning for the man is fractionally as effective after six minutes of exertion than before.

Lewis lands the same rate of significant strikes per minute as he accepts, 2.48, and of late his ability to take damage after all these fierce competitions is waning rapidly. Yes, Lewis is chinny.

However, at his best and that is how I believe we see Lewis Saturday, he is an effective finisher. The key for Lewis in this fight will be space for should he be able to work from inside the pocket on the longer taller Brazilian then he stands a great chance of imploding Teixeira with any one of several detonations.

For Tallison Teixeira this will be his sophomore fight in the UFC so disadvantages in experience, foes faced, and adversity overcome cannot compete with what Lewis has experienced.

This Brazilian bomber holds many advantages as he is fifteen years the younger man, he is four inches taller and owns a four-inch reach advantage over Lewis in this bout.

Teixeira brings raw finishing ability applied by a youthful, hulking, aggressive, sometime wild strike hurling twenty-five-year-old, but the kid ends fights.

In his second UFC bout he gets a main event placement, steps well up in class of opponent and fights for the opportunity to earn life-changing money, all of which add complexity to this fight.

Lewis is taking note of it all.

So, in one corner we have a mature, experienced, proud old warrior combatant with natural born power. He is going to take the middle of the cage and in initiate a throw down against a willing, aggressive, young, taller, longer, Brazilian Bomber who will do all he can to unglue Lewis.

There is no give in this fight.

The total in this fight of 1.5 -270 Under is appropriate!

Morgan Charriere 250 vs. Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr +200 Featherweight

WAR

Nate ‘the Train’ is appropriately named. Landwehr is forcefully aggressive in every engagement during his fights. He forges forward with unrelenting will to engage opponents with one single point of focus: to annihilate.

Landwehr now thirty-seven and sporting a lightly negative significant strike differential can struggle with consistency because of the extremely aggressive approach he takes into each battle.

Take one to give one? Landwehr’s surely game.

Landwehr can grapple yes but his aim is to walk opponents down then shut off their lights simply put.

4-2 in his last six bouts, Landwehr enters this fight off a loss but for this war, he competes in front of his hometown which makes Landwehr, a problem for any athlete in any arena, even more dangerous in this spot.

Landwehr’s opponent is perfectly placed to provide the fans a dangerous opponent for their hometown boy.

Charriere is athletic, fleet afoot, able to effectively evade strikes and throws his kicks/strikes/knees and elbows in volume and from every angle imaginable.

Charriere enters this fight in enemy territory off a loss to Nathaniel Wood that was very close and could have easily gone his way. Sporting a negative strike differential, Charriere would do well to maintain spacing against this down bound train because while Charriere’s damage is done with volume striking, distance maintenance and precision placement, the Train’s damage comes in blunt force collision form.

Simply put Charriere will need time to effectively wear Landwehr down with a volume, precision attack while Landwehr’s approach will be to force Charriere into a flat-footed throwdown where Landwehr’s shortcomings of footwork, quickness and cage cutting become muted and his strengths of power striking from the pocket are magnified.

Every fight on this card is designed to deliver violent effects but of the twelve fights slated for Nashville, this one offers the greatest intrigue because of the style each man carries to the cage.

In the end, Charriere will be too fleet afoot, too quick, and athletic for the forceful Train even though Landwehr fights in front of his people.

Charriere -250

We will use Charriere in a parlay

Steve Garcia -120 vs. Calvin Katter -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

This will be another complete blood bath as both men are lethal strikers and they execute their striking similarly, with force, power, grit, and determination.

This fight is foundational for Kattar, a blue belt in BBJ as he has dropped his last four bouts in a row but to world class competent UFC competition.

Katter is tough, aggressive and a forward pressing boxer/striker with power in his hands, a granite jaw but porous defense as evidenced by his negative 2.02 significant strike difference per five minutes of fight time.

Garcia, a southpaw enters with tremendous momentum. A striker as well Garcia has not seen the third round in his last four fights finishing competition that is sound but nowhere near as elite as the athletes Kattar has had to contend with.

So, Kattar enters fight one desperate hombre and Garcia, the lefty arrives on the shirttails of tremendous momentum. Garcia’s height, reach, and length advantages will set him up well in this striking affair. Garcia’s southpaw attack will serve him well against the traditional orthodox boxer Kattar.

Garcia -120

Garcia -120 to Charriere -250 parlay returns 1.57u

This fight is lined 1.5 -175 Over

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning PST. All my final releases may be accessed there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

NFL Consulting: It’s Business!

NFL Consulting: It’s absolutely Business!

2024 was a banner year for NFL Clients though the season was not without its challenges.

After week 6 last year GambLou.com NFL clients were down some 6+ units before turning the results around and finishing the year with a net +15.465u resulting in a 14%ROI.

GambLou.com NFL procedures are different than the other sports offerings in that the NFL is a Super Premium product. Client attention is one on one focused and manicured to the players advantage.

Any interested parties please check the NFL tab at the top of this webpage for details. You may always contact me directly Lou@GambLou.com with questions or concerns and yes I have past year’s results for those wishing to review them.