Mexico City Mexico hosts this week’s UFC fight slate, a card populated with a highly international cast of athletes converging on Mexico City to navigate both the extreme altitude as well opponents that in many cases live and train in the proximity of Mexico City.

Weekly we discuss the advantages age, location, and physical attributes provide each fighter and how they stack up against their opponents but in this week’s case, there is no more favorable advantage than to be able to live, train and dwell in or close to Mexico City especially if one is competing against someone that must travel into Mexico City from outside such drastic altitude.

Athletes able to afford a couple week’s of camp in Mexico City can acclimate appropriately in order to hold advantage or at least hold par against their opponent but for most, the cost of travel, team expenses, hotels, and training do not afford the many the ability to arrive early in order to acclimate to the altitude in Cuidado de Mexico.

This week my handicapping revolves around trying to uncover which athletes outside the local Mexican fighters are able to arrive into Mexico City early, acclimate, then perform at their best come fight night.

Fighters arriving inside of ten days’ time to try to assimilate to the altitude only fool themselves for it is widely understood that assimilation to the Mexico City altitude takes a minimum of ten to twelve days.

Altitude is the big edge this week.

Dogs went 10-4 again last week pushing favorites to a 2026 total of 36-12 or 75%.

Brandon Moreno -225 vs. Lone’er Kavanaugh +185 Flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event

Kavanaugh steps in on short notice as Moreno’s originally scheduled opponent, Asu Almabaev had to drop off the card due to injury.

Kavanaugh, an Englishman is 2-1 in the UFC after being stopped by Charles Johnson in his last bout. He will have his hands full for travel into Mexico City to face a former Mexican champion from halfway across the globe on short notice surely puts him in a disadvantageous position.

Kavanaugh will have a six-year youth advantage coming into this bout, but he will be giving away height, reach and a vast amount of world class fighting experience to Moreno.

Besides testing his mettle on a grizzled UFC veteran, Kavanaugh will learn quickly how important it is to compete against worthy UFC competition which he has not really accomplished yet in his youthful career.

Taking this fight on short notice and having to travel the globe to compete in Mexico City will surely provide Kavanaugh some future considerations as the UFC too understands that this is one difficult spot for the Englishman especially with the short notice nature of the matchup.

Once this fight begins look for Kavanaugh to be forceful with forward striking pressure, but he’ll not be able to provide Moreno with anything that the former champion has not seen yet.

Kavanaugh’s forte’ is striking and he’ll strike with Moreno from moment one and in that altitude, I project him to have about two and a half rounds of successful, frenetic pace before he begins to slow. After the start of round three he may simply become a sparring partner to the former champion fighting in front of his countrymen.

Kavanaugh may surprise Moreno with his youthful quickness, speed, and power and the Kavanaugh camp will arrive to Mexico City not to try to duel Moreno in decision form but rather tot try to jump him early and attempt to steal this fight with a flash knock-out.

That’s the only path I see for Mr. Kavanaugh.

Moreno, though only thirty-two has well more fight years under his belt than that. The wear on him from previous wars waged in the division are the only threats to his being sharp, fast, powerful, and conditioned in this battle.

Moreno on point is beguiling, crafty, intelligent, and versed with a wide array of mixed martial arts weaponry. That said, it’s believed that his best flyweight days may be behind him despite the fact that it may not be apparent in this week’s bout.

Moreno will look to force Kavanaugh to move early in this fight, he’ll fight such that Kavanaugh must use his legs to evade the forward pressure and volume striking that Moreno dishes out. The more Moreno forces Kavanaugh to expend energy in the early rounds the more likely it is for Moreno to get the kid out of there before the end of the scheduled five rounds.

This line opened Moreno -175 which appeared a little light. Moreno now stands -245, a number that depicts his many advantages more accurately in my judgement.

Total in this fight: I see some 3.5 totals and some 4.5 totals. Tiny men competing in a large cage usually indicates an easy over, but with the altitude variance here (Moreno training in it for weeks and Kavanaugh not) the chance for this fight to realize an under is well more likely.

David Martinez -250 vs. Marlon Vera +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

Ecuadoran Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera arrives to Mexico City prepared for war.

Vera, the number eight ranked bantamweight in the division will travel into Mexico City to face a violent David Martinez currently ranked number nine in the division.

A decorated black belt in BJJ, Vera, who is a notoriously slow starter has fought the elite of the division and while he is relatively powerless, he does possess great cardio, toughness and in lieu of power Vera unleashes strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees in flurries and from every angle.

Vera earned victory in 2023 against Brazilian Pedro Munhoz but has dropped all three fights since then against elite talent in Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo and Aiemann Zahabi who are all top ten athletes in the division.

David Martinez is your typical Mexican warrior. He is forward pressing and he arrives to any fight with world class power striking, an iron will and a granite jaw.

Martinez is a resident of Mexico City, so the prototypical Mexican fighter arrives to this fight with the knowledge that the elevation is his norm, he’s also highly intelligent having studied medicine at The National Autonomous University of Mexico so forcing Vera into frenetic exchanges early only sets the table for his success.

Martinez’ tenure in the UFC is but two fights deep so while he’ll be the more elevation acclimated athlete and the more powerful athlete, he will be giving away a dearth of experience to Vera who at thirty-three years old will be six years the older man in this fight.

Once this fight begins I look for Martinez to go immediately on attack. Vera will attempt to utilize footwork and cage maneuvers to maintain striking/kicking distance in order to try to pepper Martinez with a heavy volume of strikes/kicks as he forces his way into the pocket to engage.

Martinez, a Mexican fighter fighting out of Mexico City holds great advantage in this fight. I believe his advantage in this matchup is greater than his current price of -260 circa.

Martinez -260

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -425

This fight slate has three bouts where the favorite is lines -225 or lower, the rest of the matchup’s are lined with chalk being ridiculously high mostly because Mexican athletes are competing with combatants that are travelling in from other parts of the globe.

This is an easy card to go light on.

Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast will drop across all podcast platforms as well; it is always available at GambLou.com. Obtain all my final releases there once weigh-ins have been completed.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Gracias por leer y disfrutar de las peleas!

After two numbered events, the UFC returns to its ‘Meta APEX’ facility for this week’s UFC Fight Night Bautista vs. Oliveira.

This event is currently scheduled for thirteen fights to be held in the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon and in front of several more people than the APEX previously held as they have expanded the facility and its seating.

There are but four fighters from the states populating this highly international fight card as well there are five bouts where the combatants will be welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Large men in the less spacious cage employed by the APEX may provide viewers with an abundance of violent action.

Mario Bautista -190 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +165 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked bantamweight Oliveira, ‘Lok Dog’ as he is called is a highly athletic thirty-year-old Brazilian mixed martial artist. His fight base is comprised of BJJ with a highly effective power striking/kicking arsenal as supplement.

Oliveira’s speed, quickness, and lightning-fast striking acumen are foundational to his success as he has realized a 4-0 start to his UFC career. While able to grapple, Oliveira’s forte’ is the finish, as he’s KO’d sixteen of his twenty-three professional opponents with a couple of submission wins sprinkled in.

In each UFC bout thus far in his career, Oliveira has stepped up against ascending competition. He has realized a perfect 4-0 result with one finish, his debut, then three decision victories which highlights the fact that the level of competition he is facing is becoming sterner.

Oliveira’s opponent for this fight is the number eight ranked fighter in the division, Mario Bautista. We last saw Bautista clash with current number two ranked Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov in a fight that was highly competitive and one where Bautista forced the action and made Nurmagomedov fight for a full fifteen minutes. Most adversaries run from Nurmagomedov, Bautista took the fight right to him!

Bautista is the quiet man. He allows his fighting in the cage to do his talking for him. Coming into this fight off a loss should also provide Bautista with certain focus and fortitude as he had rattled off eight straight UFC wins against talented competition prior to the Nurmagomedov setback.

Bautista sports a solid wrestling base complimented with a black belt in BJJ under head coach John Crouch and highly advanced boxing acumen.  While maybe not as slick, quick, dynamic, or flashy as his opponent, Bautista has been in the cage with well more skilled, decorated, and dangerous adversaries than Oliveira.

Once this fight begins, fans will watch Oliveira attempt to utilize athleticism, and his unorthodox striking style to try to unleash looping, wide power shots onto Bautista. Oliveira will use speed early in his striking combinations, but he always finishes his flurries with profusely powerful hooks and crosses. This makes ‘Lok Dog’ a most challenging adversary.

For Bautista, he will be as the tortoise chasing the hare in that he will be the more stoic, determined, forward pressing, cage cutting athlete who will act to maneuver Oliveira into and against the fence, eliminate his space then open up by reigning damage over the less experienced yet powerful Brazilian.

Where Oliveria needs space, Bautista will strive to negate such space.

It’s highly probable that Bautista will utilize his developed wrestling acumen to clasp onto then grind on Oliveira, haul him to the mat then force him to expend his energy defending the wrestling as opposed to shucking and jiving in space while on his feet.

Bautista’s employment of the wrestling will serve two purposes, first, it will force the power striker to expend energy trying to escape from the takedowns then, second that wrestling pressure will fatigue the Brazilian leaving him less able to deal with the forceful forward pressure and diverse fight arsenal of Bautista.

This will be a terrific clash of styles but one where Bautista’s level of competition faced, his depth of experience and well-rounded fight acumen should prove to be too much for ‘Lok Dog’ for the longer this fight goes, the more dominant Bautista, and his unrelenting forward stalking pressure will become.

It’s my judgement that Bautista is simply too big a step up in class for the Brazilian at this stage of his career.

Bautista -190

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -135

Strong lean under

Jailton Almeida -145 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +125 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Russian athlete Rizvan Kuniev takes this, his sophomore bout in the UFC against the sixth ranked athlete in the division!

Kuniev is a finisher. He has earned eight of his twelve professional victories via finish, six via KO. Kuniev, who tips the scales at the 266-pound maximum weight is athletic for a large man, has profuse power in his hands and of course being Dagestani has a deep understanding of the wrestling game.

This is Kuniev’s second UFC bout. Based solely on his razor close split decision loss in his first UFC fight to current number four ranked Curtis Blaydes (a fight that could have been called either way) he seems well prepared to crash through the lower levels of modest UFC heavyweight talent and find himself in the top ten of the rankings with a victory in this fight.

The immense challenge for Kuniev is that he now goes from competing against a world class American wrestler in Blaydes to a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu specialist and one who carries freakish athleticism backed by profuse power in every limb in Almeida.

Brazil’s Jailton Almeida is the division’s number six ranked athlete. Where Kuniev flirts with the heavy weight limit of 265 lbs., Almeida, who is a sculpted, muscular man arrives to battle somewhat undersized hitting the cage around 240lbs.

Almeida is a black belt in BJJ as well he has had to compete in the heavyweight division of the UFC because no light heavyweight athletes (Almeida’s original weight class) would agree to enter the cage with him!  So, in order to get fights, Almeida jumped to heavyweight where he has accrued a 5-2 record against top ranked heavyweight talent.

Almeida’s heavy weight losses were at the hands of fourth ranked Blaydes then, in his last bout he lost a razor close decision to number two ranked Alexander Volkov. There is no shame in either of those losses.

Almeida’s athleticism, pure natural strength, cage savvy, and diverse fighting acumen allows him to compete effectively with the elite of the heavyweight division.

This dynamic clash of fighting styles and physical body types will be fascinating to watch for the adroit Almeida appears to be chiseled out of granite where Kuniev appears lumpy and rotund.

Almeida is being tested with this battle against Kuniev, and the result will clarify for the UFC if Jailton is to remain a top six athlete in the division. For Kuniev, a victory against the highly dangerous and decorated Almeida means instant inclusion into the division’s top ten.

Precision against Power, might against slight may best describe how I handicap this fight and it is the speed, experience and level of competition that direct me to the Almeida side not to mention Almeida’s finishing ability for he has finished twenty of twenty-one professional foes.

Almeida opened -550 for this fight, a ridiculous number, he stands currently -145. I call that a bargain.

Almeida -145

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Strong lean over.

Consider Almeida via decision also.

Michał Oleksiejczuk -360 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +295 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Michal O is a polished Polish striker who is basically inept in grappling/wrestling challenges. However, presented with any adversary that will accommodate him in a stand-up, striking duel, Michal O often shines.

Oleksiejczuk competed originally as an undersized light heavyweight until transitioning into the middleweight division where he has shown great aptitude…. against striking based fighters.

After dropping three bouts in 2024, Michal O earned first round finishes over two journeyman athletes last year, so he arrives to this confrontation brimming with confidence and advantages in power, footwork, and fight IQ.

In Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault we have a rank-and-file UFC athlete who is primarily a kickboxer, so Barriault arrives to the cage Saturday prepared to compete in a firefight striking match.

Barriault has eleven of seventeen wins which have come via the knockout.

So for this fight the stage is set, two determined, diligent striking based fighters are going to introduce themselves in the middle of the octagon and simply throw down until one man is left quivering on the canvas.

I expect Michal O to finish Barriault sometime in the first or second round of this battle as Barriault’s lack of speed and defensive strike evasion will be the determining factors in this bout.

Michal O via finish is the lean here however those prices are not yet released.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -160

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning across all podcast platforms. Catch it also at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!