T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV. hosts this week’s UFC 326 Holloway vs. Oliveira for Holloway’s ‘BMF’ championship belt.
The event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which will be held at the larger weight classes of welterweight (170lbs.) and above which by the numbers means higher finish rates. The UFC has doubled the amount of their fighter bonuses to encourage exciting battles and dynamic finishes which thus far this year seems to be working.
There are four fights where there exits an age gap of six years or greater. Six years or more equates to at least a 62% rate of winning for the younger fighter in any particular battle.
Eleven of the twenty-six athletes on this fight card are from the USA. Three fights feature a U.S. athlete vs. another U.S. fighter which leaves five fights where an American is able to compete in Las Vegas against an opponent that must travel from outside the country to fight. Advantage goes to those five US athletes!
Fight fans will recognize many of the combatants on this fight slate as opposed to last week’s fight card that was populated with obscure relatively unknown talent.
Favorites continue to trample underdogs in 2026 as chalk is realizing a 75.4% result through February. Let’s trust that an eventual resurgence of underdogs does arise before the year gets much more mature.
Last week David Martinez -250 earned this column a unit of profit. Let’s reinvest that momentum into this stacked UFC 326 fight card!
Max Holloway -215 vs. Charles Oliveira +185 BMF Title (155lbs.)
This is a rematch of a fight, or shall I say a near fight that occurred in 2015 when Oliveira was thirteen fights into his UFC stint. Then much more of a submission specialist competing at the 145lb. featherweight division, Oliveira was less well rounded than he is today as well he carried the heavy burden of a reputation that revolved around his lack of intestinal fortitude.
Yes, then handicappers such as I questioned Oliveira’s ability to dig down deep and fight nasty, with determination especially when the fight got messy.
Unfortunately, that fight accentuated his reputation for being an athlete with a lack of fortitude as a mysterious aliment hit Oliveira early causing him to stop competing 1:36 into round one of that main event.
Oliveira’s ailment in that fight is a mystery to this day. Tapology cites the reason for the stoppage as a ‘shoulder or neck’ injury while others have maintained it was an esophageal issue/situation.
Whatever the reason, the facts are that Holloway was declared the winner and Oliveira had to spend years toiling in his attempt to remove the label of ‘quitter’ that he had earned based on the results of that fight and previous ones.
Flash forward to this week and we see a vastly different version of Oliveira. He is now a full grown lightweight (155lbs.) man. He’s incorporated highly effective striking weaponry to compliment his world class BJJ and his wrestling is solid.
Since that embarrassment against Holloway, Oliveira has realized a 17-6 record in the UFC with legitimate victories over athletes like Chandler, Gamrot, Poirier and Gaethje.
Now the third ranked lightweight in the division Oliveira marches into this matchup a much different fighter, competitor, and man than he was when these two first tangled in that odd 2015 main event.
Current BMF title holder Max Holloway, arguably the GOAT of the featherweight division (if there was no Alexander Volkanovski) earned the BMF belt in spectacular fashion in 2024 when he famously pointed to the center of the cage in his epic battle against lightweight Justin Gaethje, then knocked him face first and senseless to the canvas with one second remaining in that fight.
To the untrained eye, Holloway may appear to be less ‘well rounded’ than Oliveira but that is actually not the case.
Holloway’s incorporation of Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling and BJJ together make him a complete threat to anyone in the division and a dynamic finishing force inside the octagon.
Physically these two former featherweights now competing at lightweight are ultra dangerous as they’ve each grown into their 155-pound bodies and have a string of defeated opponents in their wake leading up to this rematch.
Once the bell rings we’ll see Oliveira attempt to press forward aggressively to exchange with Holloway but only long enough to try to clasp ahold of him then make this a fight ‘in a phone booth’ for Oliveira requires a fight waged from close quarters in order to be able to transition to and from grappling and striking.
Oliveira’s been wobbled and dropped in several previous fights, his strike defense is such that he takes a couple to dish a couple and in this matchup that must be minimized for standing too long against Holloway will have a disastrous result.
For Holloway, the blueprint is footwork first, because maintaining appropriate striking/kicking distance will be paramount for his success in this fight which is not to say that he can’t or won’t grapple with Charles.
Holloway’s BJJ is developed and while not as refined as Oliveira’s it is sound enough to be able to allow him to compete with Oliveira long enough to find his way back to his feet where his advantage is greatest.
Both of these men have faced the elite of the same two divisions for well over a decade now. Each man has earned signature wins and have experienced emotionally draining losses.
Each of these men has held a title and defended it yet it is this bit of unfinished business that drives both men as well the UFC and it’s fans into understanding that of all the BMF fights to date, this will be the most extreme, the most epic and the most competitive fight to date.
At the end of the day my handicap is that Holloway will be able to thwart the early grappling charges of Oliveira, he’ll be able to keep this fight standing and at distance which will allow him to in to bludgeon the Brazilian with a constant barrage of jabs, leg kicks, combinations and slicing elbows/knees.
Oliveira has battled to overcome the reputation of being mentally frail, but he has not been in the cage against THIS 2026 Max Holloway and on Saturday night it seems only a matter of time before Holloway’s diversity of movement, his striking acumen and his defensive aptitude allow him to systematically disassemble Oliveira over the course of this twenty-five-minute fight.
Holloway -215 circa
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -135.
I have also seen some 2.5 Rds. Over -160 totals in the marketplace which creates potential arbitrage betting opportunities. Those considering the ‘Fight does not go to decision’ can make that wager (when those lines are opened up) then couple it with the over 2.5 Rds. creating a 12:30 minute middle potential while mitigating damage because one wager will win and the other will not unless they both realize profitability.
I’ll bet the ‘Over 2.5’ and the ‘fight does not go to decision’ when that prop comes out and make a middle attempt.
Ciao Borralho -260 vs. Renier de Ritter +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event
We last saw eighth ranked middleweight de Ritter quit on the stool between the fourth and fifth round in his fight against fourth ranked Brendan Allen last October in France.
De Ritter, 4-1 in the UFC had looked stellar in his three wins leading up to the Allen debacle but now must return to the cage against a more sound and competent middleweight threat in Borralho in order to make amends.
What de Ritter does have is an absolute world class grappling acumen. He is a black belt in BJJ as well in Judo and throughout most of his career RDR competed at the 205-pound weight class.
For UFC competition RDR competes at 185 lbs. which provides him great advantage for he is always the much larger man in the cage against UFC middleweights. With that advantage, however, comes risk and said risk is found in the fact that in order to make that aggressive weight cut to 185 lbs. RDR can compromise his fighting output by warring with the weight cut previous to the fight.
This is what transpired in the Brendan Allen fight as RDR eventually ran out of gas then immediately ran out of heart.
So the question for this fight is how will RDR address the weight in the weeks and days leading up to a fight with an adversary well more equipped and dangerous than Allen?
This matchup is a three-round fight, so RDR gets a reprieve as he has battled in five round fights in his last two UFC appearances, one a victory over former champion Robert Whittaker then the dud he threw up against Allen.
Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho is RDR’s opponent Saturday. He enters this showdown with confidence surging despite arriving to this fight off a loss to Nassourdine Imavov in his last bout.
Borralho, a leader of the ‘Fighting Nerds’ fight team arrives to this showdown with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking a brown belt as well in judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite.
Borralho’s combination of speed, power, fight weaponry, mental toughness, and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.
Once this fight begins we’ll see RDR immediately try to use his massive body structure/frame to envelope Borralho, clinch him up, push him against the fence then eventually take him to the mat where Borralho’s grappling skill, world class in nature will be forced into dealing with a man every bit as equipped in BJJ as he but one that sports a massive size advantage.
While these two are similar in the aptitude of their grappling, they are much different for only one man possesses the ability to strike and injure and that’s the Brazilian.
RDR possesses pedestrian striking, there is little speed, crispness or power in his strikes and he rarely throws in numbers as his stand up is but a foil to set up him grappling.
RDR is a one trick UFC pony.
Borralho will own a substantial striking advantage even though he can be a bit telegraphing and wide with his strikes in the heat of battle. The more complete mixed martial arts weaponry belongs to Borralho while the size, strength, and grappling advantage side with RDR.
In a three round battle these two are seemingly well matched and it’s my judgment that this fight will be more competitive than the current pricing on these men suggests.
RDR’s size will be a major factor in this outcome. Should he be able to ground Borralho and gain top position at any point in this fight then he absolutely has the ability to finish the BJJ Black belt.
Meanwhile any great advantage Borralho owns in the striking department becomes somewhat muted based on the fact that RDR is six inches the taller combatant as well he sports a four-inch reach advantage with his arms.
I can muddy the picture even further by mentioning that each of these fighters are southpaws and when two southpaws face each other odd things do occur and often occur.
Borralho’s speed, his nasty nature and his striking together lead me to believe he should be the favorite in this battle but not one with this high of price tag. I don’t believe current pricing is reflective of the kind of fight I expect from the man from the Netherlands.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185
Gregory Rodrigues -205 vs. Brunno Ferreira +185 Middleweight (185lbs.)
In January of 2023, the UFC gave debuting Brazilian power striker Brunno ‘the Hulk’ Ferreira an almost impossible task by matching him up in his debut UFC fight against fellow Brazilian mixed martial artist Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues.
In that fight the more complete mixed martial artist Rodrigues failed to utilize his grappling instead choosing to try to ‘hook with a hooker’ and out slug the shorter, more compact, more explosive and well less diversified fighter in Ferreira.
Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first round.
Saturday Rodrigues, a black belt in BJJ gets his opportunity to rematch Ferreira in a fight where he understands completely the dangers of standing and trading with the short, compact, highly explosive, and profusely powerful keg of dynamite that is Ferreira.
For this rematch Rodrigues must put pride aside and grapple this anvil of an opponent for should he loose focus and attempt to stand and trade power shots with Ferreira the result of this fight will be the same as in their first.
However, should Rodrigues be able to effectively close distance on Ferreira, clasp onto him then force him to expend energy fending off the advances of Rodrigues then this fight may turn completely to Robocop’s favor.
Ferreira’s been defeated twice in his UFC career since that debut win against Rodrigues and in each instance it was an athlete with deep grappling ability that exposed Ferreira’s lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.
So the plan for Rodrigues is clear, respect the power of the short, squat keg of dynamite that is Ferreira and as early as possible transition this fight from a striking battle to a grappling battle.
Should Robocop execute this plan then he will make amends for the complete lack of fight IQ he displayed in the first fight when he decided to stand and hook with a hooker.
Rodrigues must grapple this man in order to get his hand raised.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -125
Strong lean over
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Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!