New Orleans, LA. Is the location for this week’s UFC 318, a PPV event featuring fourteen bouts with early preliminary action beginning 3:15pm PT, prelims kick at 5pm PT then the PPV portion of the event drops at 7pm PT.
A large thirty-foot octagon and a house full of overserved swamp rats will cheer for the local athletes of which Dustin Poirier is but two Louisiana natives on the card.
Of the fourteen fights, nine take place at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above and of those nine, eight are placed in the prelims of this card so violence begins early and runs throughout the slate!
Again this week we have some ‘mature’ athletes hitting the cage. The UFC is offering us seven bouts where the age difference exceeds five years.
As discussed last week, the fact that younger athletes particularly in matchups where they are also taller and have limb reach over the opponent hold abnormal advantage especially if the fight plays out to be waged on the feet.
Last week eight of nine younger fighters facing older competitors earned victory with the only exception being Derrick Lewis, who arrived with experience and level of competition faced advantage.
It pays to undertake the appropriate due diligence when assessing these bouts.
The Favorite/Dog count for last week was 8-4 making favorites in 2025 65.2%.
Let’s Fight!
Dustin Poirier +105 vs. Max Holloway -125 Lightweight (155lbs) main event
Trilogy fight
This fight is for the ‘BMF’ title that the UFC created some years ago. Further, this fight is the third between these two men with Poirier, a Louisiana native having won the first two bouts, the first in dominant fashion when Max debuted in the UFC and took the fight on oh so short notice, and the second, for the lightweight title in 2019 when Poirier won in a close decision.
Poirier opened -150 for this fight, but he has now been bet into the underdog position while money has come in on his opponent. Many fight investors are wary when athletes announce retirement BEFORE a fight, and I believe this has much to do with the line movement in this fight.
Poirier is a black belt in BJJ with dynamic boxing credentials, he is the former lightweight interim champion who has competed against the elite of this division for several years.
Poirier will be the older athlete, the shorter athlete, and the athlete with a deficit in arm/leg reach which together and with the retirement announcement help explain why this line has been ebbing toward Holloway.
Poirier packs profuse power in his strikes/kicks, he is a formidable wrestler and has great durability and cardio. He takes this challenge after realizing a 1-2 record over the last couple of years losing to Justin Gaethje via finish as well Islam Makhachev in the same manner.
Poirier is a pressure fighter will look to force Holloway backwards in this fight, keep him on his heels and attack the longer, taller man with the formidable power of his striking/kicking.
It is inside the pocket, pressed against the fence and in toe-to-toe confrontation that Poirier will hold his greatest advantage for his strength and unrelenting forward pressure factor favorably for him.
Max Holloway the current ‘BMF’ title holder gives the Louisianan Poirier, a former BMF titleholder the opportunity to retire with that BMF belt but make little mistake, Holloway is not doing this for Poirier, rather he’s doing this to destroy Poirier in this third fight and ride off with a win, the BMF belt and a future championship bout in this lightweight division.
Holloway, thirty-three, has fully evolved into the lightweight frame, and he retains his snap, quickness, and his fleet-footed ability all while enhancing the power/effectiveness of his strikes.
Holloway, except for his last battle against Topuria, has been able to evade incoming power punches and land counters off the aggression of opponents then attack once the incoming opponent is harmed.
Holloway’s height, reach and length (arms/legs) position him advantageously in this brawl …. while it remains standing.
Holloway’s significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time stands at +2.4 while Poirier’s ratio stands +.97 significant strikes landed per round. What this highlights is the activity and volume of Max while also displaying the lower volume higher impact/power of Poirier.
Once the bell for round one rings, I expect each man to begin to try to systematically beat the other man down. These men have a total of six rounds against each other in prior competition, so I envision few surprises, few new twists, rather I envision two proud, stubborn warriors each hunting to incapacitate the other.
Poirier has the more daunting task because when these two last tangled Poirier was thirty-one while max was twenty-eight, now thirty-six and on the shelf since June of last year, Poirier prepares for a final confrontation that will take his best effort to win.
Holloway does not enter this battle unscathed! He arrives off a devastating KO at the hands of Ilya Topuria last year in October, so each man enters this battle off a damaging loss.
Two forceful, proud, world class fighters who are as capable mentally as they are physically, men who are intimately familiar with each other will meet in the middle of a thirty-foot cage this Saturday in New Orleans to determine which warrior walks out of the cage with the BMF belt.
In my estimation this is an ultimate competition and one that may not make it to the final bell!
What more could we ask for in a main event?
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -140
Roman Kopylov -250 vs. Paolo Costa +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main
Roman Kopylov, fourteenth ranked in the division is a Russian striker with deep background in combat sambo. Kopylov arrives at this fight having earned victory in his last two in a row pushing his UFC tally to 6-3.
His loss two fights back was to legitimate top ten middleweight Fluffy Hernandez is the only thing preventing Kopylov from entering the top ten of this division.
In this fight, he enters with a slight reach advantage and a negligible significant strike differential. Yes, Kopylov accepts just as many significant strikes as he unleashes.
Kopylov is versed in wrestling/grappling but utilizes that skill only when needed because he prefers to use his height and reach to deploy his striking offense on opponents.
Thirteenth ranked Brazilian hotwire Paolo Costa has a size/athletic advantage over Kopylov in this fight besides being the more explosive combatant. Costa is the more experienced fighter because he has competed against numerous top ranked adversaries.
The brazen Brazilian is a paltry 1-4 in his last several UFC competitions albeit against elite competition within the division. Costa’s performances sway between confounding and impressive based upon nothing that I have been able to detect or handicap.
Costa is a true pariah.
When mentally/physically prepared to fight for a full three rounds Costa may be regarded as a legitimate top ten talent in the division.
The issue with Costa is his lack of appropriate mental preparation, his flakey focus and his fleeting fortitude for Costa enjoys all aspects of life that tend to corrode elite fighting talent.
What he has shown a propensity to detest are stringent training, mental discipline, and innate confidence.
What is certain is that Kopylov enters this fight prepared to do anything he can to steal Costa’s reputation and ranking.
What is not certain (in this or any other battle for that matter) is the mental condition and physical conditioning of Costa entering this fight.
For this reason I will choose to watch this bout because there is no way to trust the approach in this or any fight from Paolo Costa.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -200
That total indicates Costa competence…. something I am unwilling to invest in.
Dan Ige -175 vs. Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire +145 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Freire, ‘Pitbull’ as he is nicknamed, is a thirty-eight year old legend of mixed martial arts who never had the chance to compete in the UFC until his last fight where they presented him a taller, longer, younger, ranked opponent in number three ranked featherweight Yair Rodriguez who made Pitbull look his age in a unanimous decision loss.
Now Pitbull turns it around just twelve weeks after that one-sided decision loss to Rodriguez.
Pitbull is a warrior and if given the chance to compete in the UFC six years ago he would have been able to display his world-class talent and without doubt would have competed for a title. But at this age, and after the attrition he has incurred from a lifetime of mixed martial arts his skills are waning, his reaction time is slowing and his ability to navigate in front of larger, younger men is waning.
Pitbull’s opponent for this bout is none other than eleventh ranked Dan Ige who notably took the fight last summer against Diego Lopes on hours’ notice and fought an excellent fight in losing a decision.
Ige is afforded advantage in this fight that he rarely realizes in that he is five years the younger fighter, he is an inch the taller man and he holds a six-inch reach advantage.
Add to that the fact that Ige’s been set back each time he fights an elite top ten talent and we have the recipe for a focused driven Dan Ige here who is prepared to utilize his physical advantages as well as his youth and quickness to further expose the proud aged Pitbull in a fight that I see going to decision.
Ige -175 is the favorite in this fight, and I must say that this price is very affordable given the dynamics of this fight.
Ige -175*
*I’ll use Ige -175 as the first leg of a parlay and pair him with a fighter from next week’s slate, D’Mon Blackshear -258 who battles England’s Davey Grant at UFC Abu Dhabi
This one-unit investment returns 1.19u
Total in this fight 2.5Rds over -280
Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off a 5-0 weekend last week so join me at GambLou.com to access this week’s UFC 318 releases!
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!