After a welcome hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for a fight production to be aired on Paramount called UFC 324. This event will feature the larger thirty-foot octagon and a packed house of fight fanatics.
Welcome news for fight enthusiasts is that with a subscription to Paramount, all fights this year are free as the era of pay-per-view events ends.
There are thirteen scheduled bouts for this card, five of which will be held at the Welterweight division (170lbs.) and above. The larger the combatants the greater chance for finishes.
There are six bouts on this card where a youth advantage of six years or greater exists between opponents. Fighters six years younger than their opponents realize a 62%-win rate. Fighters who are more than six years younger than their opponents realize even greater advantages so it’s critical to understand not only the physical and mental capacities of each combatant but their age and who they have competed against in recent fights as well.
While this is an international set of fighters converging in Las Vegas, only two fights feature someone from out of the country facing a domestic US athlete, so home octagon advantage exists in only two fights one being the main event.
Now let’s break down a couple of fascinating fight matchups.
Paddy Pimlett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195 Lightweight (155lbs.) Interim Title
English mixed martial artist Paddy Pimlett is from Liverpool, England and a proud ‘scouser’ he is.
Pimlett began his MMA journey at the age of fifteen and has developed into a wildly popular/magnetic UFC athlete.
Paddy ‘the baddy’ as he is called is a second-degree black belt in BJJ. He has shown the ability to fluster opponents in the octagon then force them into making mistakes where Pimlett, now twenty-nine is able to engulf them in his grappling.
From engagement Pimlett has a deft ability to find the opponent’s back or alternatively grab their neck, an arm or leg and submit them with brilliant efficiency.
Despite Pimlett being an inch shorter than Gaethje, his opponent this weekend, he will enter the cage well over 170lbs. He is athletic, strong, and able to utilize his size in grappling transitions that few of his past opponents have been able to stop.
Pimlett is 7-0 in his UFC competition with a razor close win over one Jarod Gordon that was graded a win but in actuality may have been one of the worse decisions in MMA.
Nonetheless, Paddy’s ‘Scouser’ submission ability and his tremendous popularity put him right behind Suga’ Sean O’Malley as the ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of fighters with the far-reaching draw and profuse popularity the UFC so yearns to promote and earn from.
Former ‘BMF’ Champion as well as former lightweight interim champion Justin Gaethje is Pimlett’s adversary this week.
Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight finishing striking power that can come from any kick, elbow, fist or flying knee and he throws them all with ill intent.
Gaethje utilizes numbing low leg/calf kicks to maim opponents then once compromised, he unleashes devastating power strikes that often leave opponents incapacitated.
Gaethje is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster and at thirty-seven years old he has made it clear that with a victory here he transitions into a championship fight against currently shelved lightweight title holder Ilya Topuria.
What separates Gaethje from Pimlett, is that Gaethje has competed against the elite and most dominant athletes in the division for several years now. Pimlett has not and many feel he is in this spot simply because of his popularity and his ability to draw people to fights.
Since 2019 Gaethje has only had setbacks against elite athletes in the division such as Charles Oliveira, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway. Gaethje dominated top ten ranked fighters like Tiger Muay Thai’s striking coach Raphael Fiziev (twice) and former lightweight champion and future hall of famer, Dustin Poirier.
All of these former opponents have tested Gaethje’s mettle and have prepared him to realize great advantage in level of competition faced when he steps into this fight against Paddy Saturday night.
It’s Gaethje’s age and ability to fend off the Pimlett takedown attempts and unrelenting grappling advances that become the single focus of how this fight transpires in my judgement.
Once this bout starts, Gaethje, who rarely utilizes his wrestling skill, other than take down defense will look to keep this fight standing then counterattack with those lethal kicks to numb Paddy’s legs then mark him up with an array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks to the dome.
Paddy for his part will need to navigate through the barrage of power shots and find a way to clasp onto Gaethje, press him against the fence and close distance which will set him up to try to grab ahold of anything, a leg, an arm or ride Gaethje’s back in order to mute that forceful striking and transition this fight into a grappling match where Pimlett should possess great advantage.
The clash of each combatants style, the difference in level of competition faced and the age difference in this fight are all foundational to its outcome.
At the end of the day the magnetism of the Englishman is everything the UFC is yearning for, despite his shallow fight resume while fighters like the thirty-seven-year-old Gaethje will be put up against the hungry young lions on the rise in order to ‘clean-out’ the organization of its aged, higher paid talent. After all, it is a business!
The UFC yearns to develop and highlight athletes that have dynamic magnetism/appeal beside being capable finishers as they realize what puts butts in the seats.
They see particularly great future value in the ‘Scouser’ from Liverpool and while they will claim they don’t prefer one fighter over any other but make little mistake that in this new Paramount era…. They actually will award fighters who draw crowds and finish opponents with great advantages in upcoming matchups.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -120
Lean Over
Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main
Fifth ranked UFC bantamweight Song Yadong, began learning Sambo at the age of nine then transitioned into MMA just a few years after.
From the age of twenty-two on he’s trained at team Alpha Male in northern California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and team.
Over the course of the last decade the groomers at Alpha Male have equipped the twenty-eight-year-old Yadong with effective wrestling, strong take down defense and tremendous cardio ability, all aspects of his fight game that needed improvement.
Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that his opponent, Sean O’Malley is primarily a striker and a highly precise one at that. Further, Yadong will be focused on negating the striking prowess of O’Malley and his long, sinewy frame. To do so Yadong will need to work his way ‘inside the pocket’ and utilize everything Alpha Male has instilled in him to keep this fight in close and dirty as opposed to out in space and distance where his opponent may maneuver freely.
This is a foundational fight for Yadong for should he be able to find O’Malley with a power shot or even be able to grind him against the fence from close quarters then wrestle him up to earn victory he propels himself into that third ranked position currently held by O’Malley.
Yadong’s adversary needs little introduction.
Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a lightning rod of popularity among today’s young fight fans, and his immense popularity goes well beyond just the fight game.
Besides his electric persona O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks and an underrated BJJ game that he has been cultivating for years.
O’Malley strengths are his agility, coordination, speed and precision striking ability but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize in this battle against Yadong who is the stronger athlete and who understands that in space this is O’Malley’s fight so the elimination of distance will surely be the goal of Yadong.
O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and at distance where he may utilize the advantages he sports such as deft movement, great footwork, the creation of striking and kicking angles and lastly his ability to evade strikes from adversaries. The thirty-foot cage also compliments the fighting style and athleticism O’Malley will utilize to keep his adversary at distance and the end of his precision strikes.
The uninformed will claim O’Malley is, not nor will he ever be an effective wrestler/grappler, which is simply not the case. While his wrestling pales in comparison to former champion Merab Dvalishvili it is developed enough to be able to thwart the efforts of Yadong in this matchup.
O’Malley’s arrives to this opportunity beaming with confidence. He understands what he is to the UFC as a title contender and that with his dynamic popularity and drawing power he is but one twin away (this one) from a title rematch with current champion Petr Yan whom O’Malley beat in a highly controversial split decision in October of 2022.
The evolution of the UFC and their new broadcast partner looking to harness fighters with immense popularity coupled with finishing power and drawing potential is upon us.
This co main event was specifically designed to provide one of the UFC’s greatest drawing personalities with an advantageous matchup opportunity in order to boomerang him into a bantamweight super fight with current champion Yan.
The only barricade in the design is Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong.
The foundation of this fight handicap revolves around the deft O’Malley footwork and his matrixlike strike evasion.
It’s my judgement that Yadong will struggle trying to catch up with O’Malley, especially in the spacious thirty-foot octagon. O’Malley’s feet will be the difference in this fight in that they’ll allow him to remain effective in space where he will be able to slice and dice the incoming Chinese athlete with every form of strike/kick while at the same time using said footwork to evade the power and effect of Yadong’s striking.
O’Malley opened -300 for this fight before dropping to -190. He is currently priced -200 to Yadong’s +170. Total in this three round fight is lined 2.5 Rds. Over -240
Props for this fight are available currently. O’Malley decision is priced -110 but rather than get too cute coming out of the 2026 gate, I’ll simply use
O’Malley -200
(Leg 1, 2 fighter parlay)
In my judgement that puts me with an interest in the fighter the organization wants to move forward into a championship bout.
Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170 Flyweight (125lbs.)
This is a fight between a tall, rangy world class striker in Johnson who is madly active fighting fellow flyweights and a short relatively inactive grappler/wrestler in Alex Perez.
Perez’ inactivity, five fights since 2020 should concern investors, especially understanding that in 2024 he went 1-2 against top fifteen competition then he took only one bout, a loss to Asu Almabaev in 2025.
Perez is willing and experienced but in this matchup he faces an athlete three inches taller who sports a five-inch reach advantage arms with a couple inches advantage legs.
Johnson’s high level of activity (he has had sixteen fights since 2020) his mettle, his striking acumen, and that fact that he arrives to this fight brimming with confidence all force me to regard him as a value despite being a -200 chalk.
Parlay: Johnson -200/O’Malley -200
1u returns 1.25u
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available to all across all podcast platforms. It’s also available GambLou.com
Get all of my final releases for this UFC 324 fight card there.