Last week’s Fight Night fight saw underdogs realize a 6-7 result. Favorites in the UFC this year are 56.4%, down considerably from last year’s 70.5%.

Two digital releases last week split resulting in a -.30 deficit, digital results 2025: 6-5 +.80u

Preliminary action for UFC LV 104 begins Saturday morning at 10am PST with the main slate kicking off at 1pm PT. This event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which are in divisions weighing 170lbs and above. I track these ‘big boy bouts’ to try to project how much violence/finishing potential may be on any particular card but that does not always hold as just last week, there were only three larger weight bouts, but nine of the thirteen fights ended in finish!

Three US fighters populate this London card, so we’ll witness a diversity of international talent, fight weaponry and athlete physiques entering this fight card from London town.

This March fight card has seen many of its thirteen matchups change favorites.

Leon Edwards +170 vs. Sean Brady -200 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Philadelphian Sean Brady is the division’s fifth ranked fighter. He’s a black belt in BJJ with a Muay Thai striking base to compliment his grappling.

Brady tore through the lower ranks of the division until he met up with current champion Belel Muhammad who pulverized Brady in a one sided second round striking clinic/exhibition.

Since that bout, Brady’s earned victory in two straight fights, however those opponents were truthfully not legitimate top ten talents.

Brady’s forceful with his forward pressure and strives at all costs to smother opponents, get up close then wrestle/grapple. His striking is in development and not overly refined, precise nor powerful for he uses striking only to position himself for the clasp.

Brady’s strike defense is of real concern and the fact that his last couple of opponents really could not expose him in that capacity seems to be getting overlooked.

Fromer champion Leon Edwards is now ranked as the number one contender. The Londoners’ advantages in this fight are many. He’s four inches taller and the southpaw will sport a two-inch reach advantage over Brady which is sure to present advantage when this fight is standing.

Leon’s a much better wrestler than most understand, and it is in his well-rounded fight arsenal, his physical attributes, and his ability to evade strikes that makes him a complete adversary before mentioning his experience in five round main event spotlights.

Leon’s a deft boxer striker with fluid movement whose striking has an accumulating effect because of the diversity of strikes/kicks he hurls. He’s also a solid wrestler with a black belt in BJJ who has faced the elite of the division.

Despite his accolades, the MMA community seems to believe that Leon’s performance in the first Usman fight (outside its last minute) then his display against Muhammad is his MO. I may beg to differ.

In Edwards last fight about a year ago, Belal Muhammad decided he was going to use his world class forward pressing wrestling acumen/pressure to smother Leon and wrest the title from him which is exactly what he did in a one-sided decision.

The question into this fight is whether Brady can duplicate that effort for a full five rounds. Surely his camp’s blueprint for success was seen in that Muhammad victory.

Once this fight starts it is my contention that Leon’s fluidity of movement, his take down defense, his precision striking/kicking and finally his five-round championship experience against the elite of the division he has faced will present him advantage without saying anything about that home crowd!

Edwards +170

Patience, wait to get the absolute best number on the Englishman.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Carlos Ulberg -275 vs. Jan Blachowicz +240 light heavyweight (205lbs) co main

Former champion Blachowicz enters this fight off a 2023 split decision loss to Alex Pereira then shoulder reconstruction immediately following. Usually that much time away is concerning but for a cagey veteran like Blachowicz, the time away had to have helped him prepare appropriately to arrive fresh and ready to fire in this most important battle.

Third ranked light heavyweight Blachowicz has a well-rounded MMA arsenal and he’s durable, experienced, and surely coming into this fight with the desire to make another run at the title, but he faces a young lion with momentum and ferocity.

The concern for the forty-two-year-old Blachowicz is that in this fight he is coming off injury and facing a man eight years his junior, who is taller, longer and coming in with an abundance of momentum.

In sixth ranked Carlos Ulberg we get an Aussie from City Kickboxing who is tall, long, young, and extremely well coached/prepared. A kickboxer/striker by nature Ulberg’s ability to grapple/wrestle will be tested in this fight if Blachowicz has any chance at winning.

Ulberg will be the stronger, faster, quicker man in the cage. He sports a positive 2.93 significant strikes per minute to Blachowicz’s +.50 so it will be at range that Ulberg will want to vie with the former champion, and it will be inside the pocket where Blachowicz must position himself.

Ulberg’s wrestling is not well established despite the fact that he sports an 83% take-down defense. It’s important to understand who he has fought, as his competitors had striking based fighting styles, none had accomplished forward pressing abilities. Ulberg’s simply not competed against the depth of wrestler/grappler than Blachowicz is even at forty-two years of age.

Fight fans will determine soon enough if Ulberg’s takedown defense is developed enough for him to dictate that this fight is to be competed on the feet. A stand-up bout at distance is mandatory for his chances of winning.

Should Ulberg be able to keep this fight at his reach, it is my belief that he has the ability to dominate Blachowicz with his movement, length, and superior striking/kicking acumen.

Jan must be able to plant his forehead on Ulberg’s chest, maul him over time and sap the strength/cardio from the blistering striker by forcing him to defend.

Jan MUST be able to force Ulberg to defend his wrestling early in this fight to gain his advantage late. Blachowicz next step is to force the rangy striker to the floor where the advantage will be all Blachowicz.

Where this fight takes place will determine everything in this fight and at this price I must regard Blachowicz, despite his forty-two years as live.

Blachowicz +240 

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -185

Marcin Tybura -120 vs. Mick Parkin +100 heavyweight (265lbs.)

Big Boys.

Polish fighter and eighth ranked Marcin Tybura is the athlete who arrives in the octagon Saturday with an advantage in level of competition faced he as well owns a depth of UFC experience.

A black belt in BJJ, the thirty-nine-year-old Tybura is more stringent grappling and in close quarters for his striking is telegraphed, slow, and singularly launched. In most fights and in this one especially Tybura’s success will be found in his grappling. Should he position Parkin on the canvas, he’ll possess great advantage over this less experienced foe.

Englishman Mick Parkin began as Tom Aspinall’s training partner but has slowly evolved into a recognized talent after going 4-0 in his first four UFC bouts.

The twenty-nine-year-old Englishman is a forward pressing power puncher who is long on durability and cardio. Despite the fact that he’s defeated athletes no longer in the UFC or on the cusp of its cutting board, Parkin’s looked like a fighter with promise and one that is quickly improving.

Tybura represents a certain step up for Parkin but Parkin’s one-inch height and reach advantages and the fact he competes in front of his hometown people must be considered. Then add the fact that fighters with ten years of youth advantage win at a 67% rate and we have ourselves what I consider to be a live local fighter.

Parkin +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available with all of my final releases for this UFC London card. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

Edwards is +175 at Westgate

originally published VSiN.com 3-18-25

This week the UFC visits Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for a Fight Night event scheduled for twelve fights and headlined by former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Adesanya faces fifth ranked middleweight Nassordine Imavov.

The large thirty-foot octagon and a raucous Saudi crowd will greet each battle with vigor. Scheduled for this card is a women’s Flyweight fight. Women competing in a UFC bout in Saudi Arabia has been down right rare up until Saturday.

As a special reminder, fight prelims begin at 6am PST so viewers on thew west coast may mix their KO’s with coffee.

Favorites this year stand 15-10-1 so there’s been immediate regression at the start of 2025 which is welcomed by underdog chasers. I’m interested in determining if these first two cards of the year represent potential long-term correction or simply temporary relief from the stringent rate of favorites from last year.

Thus far in 2025 digital fight results stand 1-2, -1.0u on the strength of Islam Makhachev’s submission victory over late replacement Renato Moicano in UFC 311.

Israel Adesanya -166 vs. Nassourdine Imavov +140 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov is a Russian athlete training in Paris France.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last three bouts against respected, ranked middleweight competition.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking is power based and under rated though not flashy and precision based.

Imavov’s strength is his durability and toughness. His focus is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can be depleting. In past fights, Imavov’s high output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war.

In former Champion Adesanya we have a perfect dance partner in fight style to Imavov’s pressure grappling.  Adesanya is fluid afoot, deft in his ability to kick/strike, counterstrike from any angle. His ability to maintain space to deploy his offensive attack is exemplary. Adesanya’s manipulation of space creates unique striking/kick angles which position him to damage opponents over time with striking/kicking volume.

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This fight represents is a great clash in styles as Imavov will work to close the distance between he and the former champion in order to press him against the cage then eventually ground him where he may use his strength and grappling to bludgeon and batter the former champion and make him question why he is still fighting.

Adesanya, that is a motivated, focused and pinpoint Adesanya, will work to maintain distance using footwork, volume striking/kicking and deft strike evasion and he’ll be able to execute that for all five rounds.

Adesanya’s goal will be to accrue damage to Imavov with knees, kicks and strikes using unorthodox angles, unusual speed, and a precision kicking attack.

Where this fight takes place will be a great tell as to who is in control for Adesanya’s abilities are surely muted when he is on his back however Issy’s faced formidable grapplers in prior bouts and his 75% take down defense against the high level of competition he has faced must be acknowledged.

Adesanya’s athleticism, reach and length advantages will position him to potentially shred Imavov as long as Adesanya can keep this fight at distance and upright and provided he decides this is what he really wants.

Early on, this fight makes out to be a tight, competitive bout. However, should it enter the third round and beyond, it’s my judgement that a focused, motivated Adesanya with his experience and competition faced will hold advantage. There’s just one question..

Which Issy do we get?

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Said Nurmagomedov -165 vs. Vinicious Oliveira +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

There is a deep seeded distain and rivalry between Russia and Brazil when it comes to MMA competition.

Nurmagomedov, the Russian athlete is long, tall and an international master of sport in amateur MMA.

After a loss to Brazilian Raoni Barcelos in 2019 Nurmagomedov has disposed of five fighters while losing an ultra-close contest to Jonathan Martinez in a fight I actually scored for Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov has the wrestling foundation that most Dagestani fighter’s posses which coupled with the last name makes him a worthy representation of Russian MMA.

In Brazilian fighter Oliveira, we get a flamboyant, ultra-athletic, electric, power striker from Brazil who is decorated in BJJ. He’s lightning fast, ultra-aggressive and takes fights directly to opponents with only the intent to finish.

In this fight Oliveira will be the younger man by three years, he’s slightly taller than Nurmagomedov and his switch stance fighting style will provide Nurmagomedov plenty of tactical problems.

Nurmagomedov must try to ground Oliveira, gain top position then beat the BJJ out of him from the dominant position, that will be his singular goal.

Nurmagomedov’s striking will look subpar while these two compete on the feet for the Oliveira athleticism, footwork and striking acumen will provide him great advantage as long as this fight remains upright.

Nurmagomedov will sell his soul for the takedown and where this fight takes place will offer fans great insight into who will hold advantage in this great clash of national fighting philosophies.

Nurmagomedov opened -278 in this fight.

Total in this fight 2.5 rds. Over -145

Mike Davis -135 vs. Fares Ziam +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

French fighter Ziam has looked razor sharp in his last four bouts. Ziam is tall, long and has solid striking ability however his take down defense and wrestling are nominal in approach. Ziam’s been able to dominate average talent in the cage with his striking alone, He has faced few adversaries who have shown the ability to mix up the attack and pressure him with both a wrestling threat and striking fluidity.

With Mike Davis we get a fighter who has been relatively inactive. The young man has had to overcome injury in order to compete and his ability to remain active has been difficult. When he does enter the octagon, Davis has shown the ability to fight effectively on the feet by using volume power striking and intense forward pressure but he has the wrestling base to compete in this fight where he seems to have great advantage.

Davis is different from other recent Ziam opponents in that he has formidable wrestling, and it is in his ability to mix it up and display a well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry that provides him advantage in this fight.

That Davis has been inactive is not his fault and if anything, he arrives to this fight fresh, ready to fire and completely under the radar.

Mike Davis is a potential top fifteen athlete in the lightweight division and on Saturday I believe he has a great performance.

Davis -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -220

Friday early AM the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with my final releases for this fight card. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

Using Circa lines

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the final UFC event of 2024, Fight Night Tampa Covington vs. Buckley.

This card is scheduled for 13 fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and main card 7pm PT.

Three of the 13 bouts feature larger 170lb men or larger and the thirty-foot cage will be employed.

Last week favorites continued their torrid tear by realizing a 12-2 result pushing chalk to 70.5% on the year.

I feel fortunate to have been able to derive profit through this run of chalk in 2024. Further, this column plans on being front and center when (and in my judgement it is only a matter of ‘when’), this favorite foray finally flails.

I am unable to grade last week’s Digital release of Volkov +285 as a winner despite the fact that he won that dad gummed fight. The judges awarded the decision to Cyril Gane in a result that was simply incorrect. I feel for these athletes as their career, their livelihood, their earnings all depend on judges most of whom are categorically incapable of understanding how to accurately grade UFC bouts. Choi +120 and Over -170 in that same Choi vs. Landwehr fight both cashed.

Into this final card, digital releases this year stand 28-26 +7.48u.

The next UFC card takes place January 11, with that in mind, this column will return January 7th with my breakdowns of the first fight slate of 2025.

Let’s Fight!

Joaquin Buckley -260 vs. Colby Covington +230 Welterweight (170lbs) main event

Buckley, from East St. Louis is the eighth ranked fighter in the division. He is short, squat, highly explosive, profusely powerful and he enters this fight with tremendous momentum.

Buckley opened a +145 underdog for this fight to his adversary Colby Covington, but the chalk changed from Covington to Buckley in short time.

The market seems to believe that Buckley is poised to conquer sixth ranked Covington.

Covington enters as a highly divisive figure. Many people hate his guts while others understand that his flakey UFC persona is simply an a schtick designed to allow him to play the heel while ratcheting up the eyeballs looking in to watch him be dominate or be pulverized.

In this fight It’s Covington who is the taller, longer athlete in the cage. He’ll have tremendous experience angle over Buckley as well he’s been in the cage with a far more stringent set off adversary than has his foe Saturday.

Covington’s wrestling ability can’t be matched for Buckley’s wrestling though developed is not on the same plane as is Covington’s. Covington uses volume striking to set up his wrestling while Buckley utilizes his wrestling to keep fights standing so he may enter the pocket and bludgeon his opponent with power strikes/kicks.

Buckley’s strikes have violent effects on his adversaries, he’s lightning quick and enters this fight having earned victory in his last five fights albeit against athletes that are not elite within the division.

Once this fight begins, it will be Buckley’s explosion and aggression that will be matched against Covington’s unrelenting forward wrestling pressure. Covington’s unending ability to compete 100% throughout twenty-five full minutes of war will be tested by the power and explosivity of Buckley’s strikes.

Explosive power against stamina and guile is how I view this fight and while Buckley is the younger, faster, more violent fighter, it is Covington whom I believe will force Buckley into the third round and beyond where ‘fatigue makes cowards of us all.’

Once this fight enters those later rounds, look for Covington’s guile, experience, wrestling and cardio to rule.

Covington +230

Total in this fight: 4.5Rounds Over -150

Daniel Marco -160 vs. Adrien Yanez +135 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

This has the makings to be one of the top battles in this last quarter of 2024.

Yanez, of Mexican descent is tough, durable, aggressive and enters this fight after getting back into the win column with a dominant performance over a game Vinicius Salvador.

Yanez’ father was a golden gloves boxer, so he grew up with a sturdy boxing base then at an early age added BJJ to his weaponry. He is currently a black belt in BJJ.

He fights Peruvian Daniel Marcos who enters this fight undefeated at 16-0 and 3-0 in the UFC though that record should really be 4-0.

Marcos is very athletic, has fast, heavy hands and a deliberate leg numbing kicking attack. Each man’s faced a similar level competition. These two fight for ranking as the victor in this fight  will be jettisoned into the top fifteen of an oh so very competitive bantamweight division.

Marcos must defend his undefeated mark while Yanez, who lost his undefeated record two fights back, is focused solely on taking the zero away from Marcos in dominating fashion.

Do not miss this battle.

The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -120

Joel Alvarez -350 vs. Drakkar Klose +295 Lightweight (155lbs)

Alvarez is your typical bully as he is oversized for lightweight but cuts dynamic amounts of weight in order to hold advantage over his adversaries in battles. He’ll be taller than Klose by four inches, he’s five years the younger man and he’ll hold a couple inch reach advantage in arms and legs.

A brown belt in BJJ with decent striking acumen Alvarez was delivered his PhD. In MMA three fights back when Armen Tsarukyan mopped the floor with him. Since that setback Alvarez defeated both Marc Diakiese and Elvis Brener, two formidable lightweight opponents.

In thirty-five-year-old Klose we have an athlete that explodes like a barrel packet tightly with dynamite. He’s more experienced than Alvarez and has faced solid competition on his way to this a foundational fight for him.

Early in this fight, Alvarez will attempt to maintain distance and strike with Klose cautiously then eventually try to lure him into some form of clasp in order to try to ground him and initiate the ground battle for seventeen of Alvarez’s wins professionally have come via submission.

For Klose, his strategy is clear, smother the longer taller Alvarez with unrelenting forward pressure. Back him up and batter his body with hooks, crosses, and knees. Klose must attach his forehead to Alvarez’s chest where his inside position will make it easy for him to heave heavy power shots to the taller man’s body then move to the chin. Klose has one job Saturday night, pressure Alvarez backwards.

‘Styles make fights’ and in this one the tell will be ‘distance.’ If Klose can manage this fight to a standing war in a phone booth he will win. Should Alvarez be able to clasp, clinch, and ground Klose the night will be a long one for Klose. Great clash of fighting styles.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -150

Friday at midday PT the Bout Business Podcast drops only at GambLou.com. Access my final releases for this card there.

Thank you for reading and merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to all.

 

This week’s UFC 310 event is the last PPV of the calendar year, it takes place from T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV.

T-Mobile utilizes the larger 30’ octagon, the event is scheduled for 14 bouts with Early prelims starting at 3pm PT, prelims at 5pm PT and the five fight main card 7pm PT.

This slate features an international composition of highly specialized fighters. Eight of fourteen fights will be held at 170lb and larger which should equate to violence and finishes… which is the hope of both fans and the organization.

2024 has been a tough year on underdogs as favorites in the UFC traditionally run about 62% to 63% percent, this year favorites stand 347-134-14 or 70.01%.

Despite the run on chalk digital results stand 26-25 +6.18u on the year which equates to an average of +1.20 per win.

Alexandre Pantoja -280 vs. Kai Asakura +230 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title. In his last six bouts Pantoja has dominated every elite threat in the division in essence ‘cleaning out’ the division’s highest ranked fighters.

Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring numerous skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows him to refine his skill daily against every form of diversely trained mixed martial artists.

Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler supplemented with superior striking aptitude, deft evasion skill and a depth of experience that’s been developed against the ultimate threats in the division.

He’s fast, strong, athletic and of all his physical attributes the trait that is most apparent in his fights is not physical, rather it is mental, and I refer here to Pantoja’s mental toughness and his fight IQ.

Pantoja’s foe in this fight is an odd choice to say the least.

In Japanese fighter Kai Asakura, the organization choose to bring in a bantamweight fighter from an outside fight organization who has had but a couple fights since 2021.

Asakura’s a large man as a 135lb athlete so whether he will be able to make the 125-pound championship weight will be of utmost importance. Asakura steps over other more qualified and pedigreed flyweight challengers to Pantoja’s crown.

Despite the dubious path to this debut title opportunity, Asakura does hold a three-inch advantage in height and a three-inch reach advantage over him.

Once this fight begins, I will trust Pantoja to work the debuting athlete into the second round or further in order to both tax the young, strong, power punching buzzsaw and usurp some of the spark from his strikes.

Once Pantoja can navigate this fight to and past the ten-minute mark, look for the champions mix of striking, kicks and grappling to begin to befuddle the hulking Asakura who is nothing if he isn’t aggressive and forward pressing.

In Asakura we have the blunt force trauma of a power striker who stalks then attacks opponents and in Alexandre Pantoja we have the artistry of a world class mixed martial artist who has numerous ways to confront any adversary then dominate them.

This matchup seems to be a ‘brains versus brawn’ form of fight.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -135

Cyril Gane -340 vs. Alexander Volkov +285 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Number two ranked heavyweight Gane faces number three Volkov in a rematch of a 2021 fight that Gane won via unanimous decision.

Then Gane’s footwork, deft striking/kickboxing allowed him to pick and peck at the lumbering Russian for a full five rounds. Volkov was unable to penetrate Gane’s defenses and earn inside position and in fact he hardly tried that potentially successful means of attack.

In this fight the difference is that Gane’s become more experienced as a pedigreed elite heavyweight mixed martial artist so he must be viewed as improved since these two last tangled.

For Volkov, improvement has also been a staple of his last couple of years as he’s overwhelmed his last four legitimate adversaries after being finished by England’s interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in 2022.

Volkov’s performance against Sergei Pavlovich in his last fight forces me to regard him as a more dangerous, calculated, powerful adversary for Gane than he was in their first foray.

Volkov’s wrestling/grappling ability first, then his size, reach, experience advantages together with his understanding that at thirty-six this may be his last viable run for a title position him to perform at his aggressive peak against a world class but more singularly versed opponent.

Their first fight was a five-round fight, this one is scheduled for three which to me is the fulcrum for a Volkov release as there will be little time for ‘feeling out’ between these two.

Volkov’s mental/physical weaponry makes him most dangerous Saturday. Current pricing does not reflect accurately Volkov’s chances of winning this fight in my judgement.

Volkov +285

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -300

Nate Landwehr -140 vs. Do Hoo Choi +120 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr fights with the force of a locomotive simply put.

Athletic, with a wrestling/track background, Landwehr fights with an aggressive/unrelenting forcefulness. Elbow’s, knee’s, fists and heels he hurls at opponents with the sole purpose of massive destruction.

‘The Train’ is durable, willing, and at times completely reckless in his pursuit to ‘seek and destroy’.

In Choi, the ‘Korean Super boy’ we have the perfect dance partner for ’the Train’ as Choi’s nimble as a ballroom dancer on the feet, he’s lightning quick, and is able to effectively attack off of forceful, aggressive incoming opponents well. Choi’s also highly mature and is highly intelligent.

Choi like his compatriot before him Chan Sung Jung, ‘the Korean Zombie’ served in Korea’s military interrupting his fighting career. He now returns with the focus and maturity of a fully grown, mature, physically equipped man.

In this fight, Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr, one of my favorite fighters will struggle mightily to match the adroit, in and out, intrinsic, and inconsistent movement that Choi’s going to employ in this fight. Let’s not forget that it was Choi who opened -125 in this fight!

As Angel Dundee would quip, ‘Styles make fights’… this is THE perfect example of it.

Choi +120

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170

Heavy lean over

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Welcome fight enthusiasts to this week’s UFC 309 fight card from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY.

The Garden will be packed with fans who will witness twelve scheduled bouts, six of which feature destroyers who weigh 170lbs and greater. Finish rates for fighters 170lbs. and larger are far greater than those fights featuring slighter combatants weighing 155lbs and below.

UFC 309 has eleven athletes that are thirty-five years old and older on this slate. Fighters with five plus years of youth advantage earn victory at a rate of fifty-five to fifty-six percent and that rate grows the more pronounced the youth advantage grows.

Of course, the Main event of UFC 309 is Jones vs. Miocic where two mature yet equipped mixed martial artists compete for Heavyweight GOAT’ status.

Last week two releases were offered in an amended digital article as Cody Garbrandt ‘s fight was cancelled. Both half unit underdogs missed, resulting in a full unit of loss to 2024 profitability.

Digital results stand 27-23 +8.65u on the year.

Jon Jones -675 vs. Stipe Miocic +550 Heavyweight (265lbs.) title

Miocic is a humble firefighter from Cleveland by day and one of the most decorated UFC heavyweight athletes of all time by night and weekend.

Miocic did lose his title to Francis Ngannou in 2021 but prior to that he defeated Daniel Cormier twice in their trilogy and laid waste to the who’s who of the division leading up to that Ngannou rematch.

Currently the betting market seems to not be recognizing Miocic’s career accomplishments. It could be because that rematch loss to Ngannou is the last impression received and/or who Miocic is fighting.

In the cage Miocic is a full grown tough, durable, heavyweight destroyer complete with deft boxing, lethal kicking and as a bonus he’s a very complete wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ.

Miocic is the perfect combination of athleticism, wrestling base, striking acumen, toughness, and experience all wrapped into a legitimate 240lbs of coiled aggression.

He’s been in the cage with the absolute elite of the division over the last fifteen years so it’s easy to understand that he has little fear of his Saturday showdown with ‘Bones.’

Jones arrives the pound for pound GOAT in the UFC by Dana White’s standards and I must agree.

Jones is an athletic freak, a world class wrestling talent, and a developed lethal striker who effectiveness is set up by his wrestling advances.

We last saw Jones in March of 2023 barely break a sweat against an overmatched Cyril Gane. Since then, Jones has been healing and preparing for this fight and he’s taking Miocic well more seriously than the betting market is.

Miocic, now forty-one, faces a thirty-seven-year-old Jones who in my judgement is every bit as mixed martial arts dangerous as he has ever been.

Jones’ unique physical characteristics, the fact he’s taken ample time to prepare for the heavyweight division coupled with his wrestling prowess/overt aggression make him a living breathing fighting machine.

It’s Stipe’s age and Jones’ larger than life aura that’s affecting most fans handicap regarding this fight in my judgement. I must say that I give Miocic a better chance to compete in this fight than the current pricing.

At the end of the day this fight will solidify that Jones has earned the status of ‘all time pound for pound GOAT’ in MMA.

I handicap Jones to possess advantage in this fight but it may take him longer than a round plus to solve Stipe.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 but I have seen some 2.5 Under -145 in the market also.

Charles Oliveira -265 vs. Michael Chandler +220 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main event

We get a rematch AND a five-round rematch at that!

In their first fight in 2021 Charles Oliviera finished Michael Chandler early in the second round, he closed -125 to Chandler’s +105 in that bout.

In 2024 he comes -198 at open against Michael Chandler who opened +165 for this one.

Oliviera’s been bet to a current price of -250/-260 while Chandler can be had for +220. The total here is 1.5rds under -165.

Chandler’s now thirty-eight years old and will be cutting weight substantially to get back to 155lbs. after spending more than a year believing he would be fighting Conor McGregor at 170lbs.

He gives up three years of age, two inches of height and three inches of arm reach to Oliveira who has toiled against every form of world class mixed martial artist between two divisions.

The question that needs to be posed for this fight is the following: What could have changed between these two since 2021?

To me, Chandler, who won the first round of their fight in 2021, has one way to win this fight and that’s to seek and destroy. He must knock Oliveira out.

Oliviera meanwhile needs to weather that frenetic first four to five minutes of Chandler’s freakish power output again in this fight. After the first round Oliviera will be in a better position to systematically break Chandler down as his quickness, power, and aggression wane.

I believe Oliveria earns victory again.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Under -165

Favorites stand 322-128-13 this year in the UFC.

69% is exceedingly high as yearly rates are normally around 62% to 63%. I mention this because I am going to ride the wave and use a parlay of favorites for this week’s digital release.

Karine Silva -265 is in a favorable position despite taking a sizable step up in competition against fellow Brazilian Flyweight Viviane Araujo. Silva’s price, however, is prohibiting me from investing in her straight up.

So, I’ll employ a three-fighter parlay and slash the Silva price from -265 to -145 with the understanding that all three positions must win.

Three Fighter Parlay

Bo Nickal -1100 in his fight against Paul Craig.

Mauricio Ruffy -850 in his bout against James Liontop.

Karine Silva -265 in her fight against Araujo.

1.47u returns 1.0u

Access my final releases on the ‘Bout Business Podcast Friday late AM PT only at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading.

GambLou.com

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