Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 325 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Cowboy Ciao?

Sydney, Australia is the host city for this week’s UFC 325 a fight card populated with ten legitimate UFC matchups and four ‘Road to the UFC’ fights.

Sydney will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon, and these battles will be held in front of an always raucous Aussie crowd.

Start time in the USA is 2PM PST for early prelims, 4PM PST for Preliminary fights then 6PM PST for the main card which will be the norm for these Paramount events,

As an aside, this column handicaps UFC fights only so this week we have ten bouts populated with an international set of combatants. Nine Aussie athletes (and Fiziev from Phuket, Thailand) will benefit from the lack of travel while fighters from the US, Mexico Brazil and Wales will need to commute into Australia for their confrontations all against local Aussie fighting talent.

Travel to any foreign fight slate is an important factor especially regarding fighter weigh-ins as plane rides bloat passengers. Another factor is WHEN athletes arrive to any foreign location for altitude and time differences are real factors in fights and must be addressed by athletes and handicappers alike.

Handicapping this or any foreign event means understanding that often local/regional athletes can be paired in somewhat favorable matchups to both encourage the crowd to be hysterical as well and more importantly to spread the UFC’s brand in that geographical area.

In other words, there can be great advantage being a local/regional athlete when the UFC travels abroad,

Last week favorites went 8-3 in the UFC after realizing a 330-154-18 (65.7%) result in 2025.

Alexander Volkanovski -160 vs. Diego Lopes +145 Featherweight (145lbs.) Title

This is an immediate rematch of a championship battle that transpired last April in Miami where Volkanovski retained his featherweight title via a unanimous decision.

Current number two ranked Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC in May of 2023 and took current UFC featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s number one ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice!

Since that decision loss, Lopes, who has leapfrogged over Evloev for this SECOND title opportunity has dominated five highly decorated featherweight adversaries leading into that championship opportunity last April against Vokanovski where he was exposed on several levels.

In that bout Volkanovski, then thirty-six displayed keen footwork, world class wrestling and a depth of fight experience in remaining one step ahead of thirty-year-old Lopes on his way to a definitive unanimous decision win.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will still hold that five-year youth advantage coming into this return fight, he remains six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the champion but I question what he has accomplished physically in the last calendar year to close the skill gap between he and Volkanovski.

In fact he was displaying similar difficulty keeping up with his last opponent Brazilian Jean Silva before Silva ran into a spinning elbow that ended the fight.

Lopes has substantial power and while he is tough, durable and steps into this bout after that stunning knockout victory over Silva, my judgement is that what he needed to refine and improve the most, namely his footwork and quickness in order to compete with the current champion have not been addressed appropriately from last year to this.

Volkanovski has not fought since these two last tangled as well he competes in his home country Australia as opposed to the travel he incurred for their last fight in the Latino mecca that is Miami, Fl.

Volkanovski’s intelligence, his cardio, the completeness of his mixed martial arts weaponry and his deft strike defense together with his nimble footwork and depth of five round championship experience still provide him advantage over anyone in the division let alone a young but hungry warrior he beat soundly less than one year ago.

Volkanovski opened -130/-135 for the first bout between these two and closed at -155/-160.

For this championship bout Volkanovski opened -150/-155 where this line sits currently.

Total in this fight: sits 3.5Rds -130 at some shops and 4.5 Rds. -110 at others.

When I see these early differences in totals, the end result almost always ends up being a fight lined at 4.5 rounds.  There is advantage to be had if one considers attacking that 3.5 Rds. Over -130 (DK).

Mauricio Ruffy -120 vs. Raphael Fiziev +100

Ruffy, the organizations fourteenth ranked lightweight arrives to Australia prepared to rectify the beating he incurred at the hands of Benoit Saint-Denis last September. Prior to that fight Ruffy, a Fighting Nerd from Brazil who is a long, lean striking machine displayed tremendous aptitude, speed, and refined precision in decimating several worthy adversaries.

Not decorated with any awarded belts, Ruffy does display lighting fast Capoeira tendencies which include spinning heel kicks, flying knees and an overall aggressive display of striking aggression.

What exposed the aggressive flamboyant striker in that last fight was his complete inability to grapple, wrestle or defend the takedown, a weakness that will soon need to be addressed ..but not for this bout.

For this fight Ruffy draws a great dance partner in Rafael Fiziev who is the striking coach at Phuket, Thailand’s Tiger Muay Thai, a gym that is world renown.

Fiziev too packs great power in his diversity of strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees. What makes this fight so fascinating is that neither of these cats can even spell wrestling. Spectator’s watching this artillery launch will witness a short, compact, explosive Kyrgyzstani in Fiziev who holds a blue belt in BJJ compete against a man similarly equipped in UFC weaponry, however one who will stand thee inches taller, will hold a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and will be three years the younger combatant.

Once this fight begins my best advice is to not blink, for Ruffy will strive to maintain distance and bludgeon the incoming Fiziev with numbing strikes which will emanate from every angle, and limb.

Fiziev for his part has matrix-like defense and it will be his chore to navigate his way inside on Ruffy which will mute Ruffy’s length/effectiveness and simultaneously allow Fiziev to unleash his own artistic yet devastating array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks onto the Brazilian athlete.

The clash of body types and the relative similarities in how each of these dominators wants to win should be epic watching.

In the end, it is Fiziev, 7-4 in the UFC, who has been in with the more qualified and capable set of opponents, it’s Fiziev who has the benefit of little travel as well he’ll have the crowd on his side.

Ruffy, 3-1 in the UFC will need to navigate that trip from Brazil, make weight then fight the regional athlete in Fiziev in Fiziev’s hemisphere. But with that said, youth, speed, flash, and dynamic may well rest on the Ruffy side.

This bout opened a dead pick-em (-110 each man) and current fight lines can be found from Ruffy -120 to Fiziev -115.

Shop wisely my friends!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Strong lean over

Quillan Salkilld -1000 vs. Jaime Mullarkey +700 Lightweight (155lbs)

It’s not often we write up a fight with such a cavernous spread difference between combatants, but this fight is going to be the fight that ignites the crowd for this event.

Salkilld is a dead finisher having earned KO’s or submissions in seven of his eleven professional bouts.

He was originally matched up with a Chinese mixed martial artist that was going to accommodate both he and the crowd in China’s RongZhu, a Sanda kickboxing based fighter who is aggressive and powerful.

Rong Zhu was forced to pull out of the fight.

Salkilld pleaded with the UFC to keep him on the card because as one may expect, being an Aussie and competing in front of one’s home compatriots is an honor and Salkilld wanted to remain on the event desperately.

The UFC with it’s deft ability to always keep fight cards populated, found fellow Australian fighter Jamie Mullarkey to jump into this event on but a couple of weeks of notice.

While Salkilld is a finishing machine, Mullarkey unfortunately is a man who gets finished.

Mullarkey, an uber aggressive power striker has twelve fights of experience in the UFC realizing a 6-6 record however, he’s been brutally finished in four of his last eight bouts and the few victories he’s enjoyed were to athletes most of whom no longer compete in the organization.

Props for this fight are not available yet, but this total is listed 1.5 Rds. -165 Under.

It is safe to advise Salkilld via finish in this fight and further even look to Salkilld via KO/TKO/DQ in order to attempt to pry a price out of a fight where the result is almost certain.

Jacob Malkoun -220 vs. Torrez Finney +190 Middleweight (185lbs.)

This is the dinosaur fight.

Not that these guys are old, but each is a wrestling based fighter and in this new Paramount age of violence, finishes and frenzy fifteen minutes of two men rolling on the canvas is not only distasteful to the UFC but the crowd as well. Too bad.

None the less these two will face off in what I handicap to be the wrong man may be favored fight.

Malkoun, 4-3 in the UFC has had an inconsistent UFC career which may be the result of grotesque inactivity.

After three bouts in 2022, Malkoun fought once in 2023 and once in March of 2024, so he’s been on the shelf and in the gym since then.

Evolution in the fight game takes place in the gym yes, but also in the octagon under the bright lights.

The inactivity of Malkoun is of great concern here despite the fact that he’s primarily a wrestler with some degree of danger in his hands.

In Torrez Finney we get a sawed-off American wrestling talent who is as stout as he is tall.

Finney is mad athletic for his build and has had a deep history in competitive wrestling, but his strikes are telegraphed, wide and easy to evade.

Once this fight begins I believe it will be difficult for Malkoun to try to fend off the unrelenting forward pressing wrester that is Finney.

Finney wants to win fights at this early stage of his career, so he will simply sell out in the wrestling then hope to reign damage on the Aussie from the dominant top position.

While Malkoun should hold a striking advantage, it may be difficult for him to create enough space to breath let alone throw a punch.

The difference in wrestling prowess is too wide for the Australian Malkoun to overcome as I handicap this bout.

Finney +190 (circa)

The lines to this fight are all over the board so shop accordingly to capture the best price on Finney available.

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Over -200

Strong lean over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all Podcast platforms, it’s also available at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 324 Gaethje vs. Pimlett: ‘Suga’ Daddy

After a welcome hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for a fight production to be aired on Paramount called UFC 324. This event will feature the larger thirty-foot octagon and a packed house of fight fanatics.

Welcome news for fight enthusiasts is that with a subscription to Paramount, all fights this year are free as the era of pay-per-view events ends.

There are thirteen scheduled bouts for this card, five of which will be held at the Welterweight division (170lbs.) and above. The larger the combatants the greater chance for finishes.

There are six bouts on this card where a youth advantage of six years or greater exists between opponents. Fighters six years younger than their opponents realize a 62%-win rate. Fighters who are more than six years younger than their opponents realize even greater advantages so it’s critical to understand not only the physical and mental capacities of each combatant but their age and who they have competed against in recent fights as well.

While this is an international set of fighters converging in Las Vegas, only two fights feature someone from out of the country facing a domestic US athlete, so home octagon advantage exists in only two fights one being the main event.

Now let’s break down a couple of fascinating fight matchups.

Paddy Pimlett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195 Lightweight (155lbs.) Interim Title

English mixed martial artist Paddy Pimlett is from Liverpool, England and a proud ‘scouser’ he is.

Pimlett began his MMA journey at the age of fifteen and has developed into a wildly popular/magnetic UFC athlete.

Paddy ‘the baddy’ as he is called is a second-degree black belt in BJJ. He has shown the ability to fluster opponents in the octagon then force them into making mistakes where Pimlett, now twenty-nine is able to engulf them in his grappling.

From engagement Pimlett has a deft ability to find the opponent’s back or alternatively grab their neck, an arm or leg and submit them with brilliant efficiency.

Despite Pimlett being an inch shorter than Gaethje, his opponent this weekend, he will enter the cage well over 170lbs. He is athletic, strong, and able to utilize his size in grappling transitions that few of his past opponents have been able to stop.

Pimlett is 7-0 in his UFC competition with a razor close win over one Jarod Gordon that was graded a win but in actuality may have been one of the worse decisions in MMA.

Nonetheless, Paddy’s ‘Scouser’ submission ability and his tremendous popularity put him right behind Suga’ Sean O’Malley as the ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of fighters with the far-reaching draw and profuse popularity the UFC so yearns to promote and earn from.

Former ‘BMF’ Champion as well as former lightweight interim champion Justin Gaethje is Pimlett’s adversary this week.

Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight finishing striking power that can come from any kick, elbow, fist or flying knee and he throws them all with ill intent.

Gaethje utilizes numbing low leg/calf kicks to maim opponents then once compromised, he unleashes devastating power strikes that often leave opponents incapacitated.

Gaethje is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster and at thirty-seven years old he has made it clear that with a victory here he transitions into a championship fight against currently shelved lightweight title holder Ilya Topuria.

What separates Gaethje from Pimlett, is that Gaethje has competed against the elite and most dominant athletes in the division for several years now.  Pimlett has not and many feel he is in this spot simply because of his popularity and his ability to draw people to fights.

Since 2019 Gaethje has only had setbacks against elite athletes in the division such as Charles Oliveira, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway. Gaethje dominated top ten ranked fighters like Tiger Muay Thai’s striking coach Raphael Fiziev (twice) and former lightweight champion and future hall of famer, Dustin Poirier.

All of these former opponents have tested Gaethje’s mettle and have prepared him to realize great advantage in level of competition faced when he steps into this fight against Paddy Saturday night.

It’s Gaethje’s age and ability to fend off the Pimlett takedown attempts and unrelenting grappling advances that become the single focus of how this fight transpires in my judgement.

Once this bout starts, Gaethje, who rarely utilizes his wrestling skill, other than take down defense will look to keep this fight standing then counterattack with those lethal kicks to numb Paddy’s legs then mark him up with an array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks to the dome.

Paddy for his part will need to navigate through the barrage of power shots and find a way to clasp onto Gaethje, press him against the fence and close distance which will set him up to try to grab ahold of anything, a leg, an arm or ride Gaethje’s back in order to mute that forceful striking and transition this fight into a grappling match where Pimlett should possess great advantage.

The clash of each combatants style, the difference in level of competition faced and the age difference in this fight are all foundational to its outcome.

At the end of the day the magnetism of the Englishman is everything the UFC is yearning for, despite his shallow fight resume while fighters like the thirty-seven-year-old Gaethje will be put up against the hungry young lions on the rise in order to ‘clean-out’ the organization of its aged, higher paid talent. After all, it is a business!

The UFC yearns to develop and highlight athletes that have dynamic magnetism/appeal beside being capable finishers as they realize what puts butts in the seats.

They see particularly great future value in the ‘Scouser’ from Liverpool and while they will claim they don’t prefer one fighter over any other but make little mistake that in this new Paramount era…. They actually will award fighters who draw crowds and finish opponents with great advantages in upcoming matchups.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -120

Lean Over

Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main

Fifth ranked UFC bantamweight Song Yadong, began learning Sambo at the age of nine then transitioned into MMA just a few years after.

From the age of twenty-two on he’s trained at team Alpha Male in northern California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and team.

Over the course of the last decade the groomers at Alpha Male have equipped the twenty-eight-year-old Yadong with effective wrestling, strong take down defense and tremendous cardio ability, all aspects of his fight game that needed improvement.

Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that his opponent, Sean O’Malley is primarily a striker and a highly precise one at that. Further, Yadong will be focused on negating the striking prowess of O’Malley and his long, sinewy frame. To do so Yadong will need to work his way ‘inside the pocket’ and utilize everything Alpha Male has instilled in him to keep this fight in close and dirty as opposed to out in space and distance where his opponent may maneuver freely.

This is a foundational fight for Yadong for should he be able to find O’Malley with a power shot or even be able to grind him against the fence from close quarters then wrestle him up to earn victory he propels himself into that third ranked position currently held by O’Malley.

Yadong’s adversary needs little introduction.

Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a lightning rod of popularity among today’s young fight fans, and his immense popularity goes well beyond just the fight game.

Besides his electric persona O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks and an underrated BJJ game that he has been cultivating for years.

O’Malley strengths are his agility, coordination, speed and precision striking ability but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize in this battle against Yadong who is the stronger athlete and who understands that in space this is O’Malley’s fight so the elimination of distance will surely be the goal of Yadong.

O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and at distance where he may utilize the advantages he sports such as deft movement, great footwork, the creation of striking and kicking angles and lastly his ability to evade strikes from adversaries. The thirty-foot cage also compliments the fighting style and athleticism O’Malley will utilize to keep his adversary at distance and the end of his precision strikes.

The uninformed will claim O’Malley is, not nor will he ever be an effective wrestler/grappler, which is simply not the case. While his wrestling pales in comparison to former champion Merab Dvalishvili it is developed enough to be able to thwart the efforts of Yadong in this matchup.

O’Malley’s arrives to this opportunity beaming with confidence. He understands what he is to the UFC as a title contender and that with his dynamic popularity and drawing power he is but one twin away (this one) from a title rematch with current champion Petr Yan whom O’Malley beat in a highly controversial split decision in October of 2022.

The evolution of the UFC and their new broadcast partner looking to harness fighters with immense popularity coupled with finishing power and drawing potential is upon us.

This co main event was specifically designed to provide one of the UFC’s greatest drawing personalities with an advantageous matchup opportunity in order to boomerang him into a bantamweight super fight with current champion Yan.

The only barricade in the design is Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong.

The foundation of this fight handicap revolves around the deft O’Malley footwork and his matrixlike strike evasion.

It’s my judgement that Yadong will struggle trying to catch up with O’Malley, especially in the spacious thirty-foot octagon. O’Malley’s feet will be the difference in this fight in that they’ll allow him to remain effective in space where he will be able to slice and dice the incoming Chinese athlete with every form of strike/kick while at the same time using said footwork to evade the power and effect of Yadong’s striking.

O’Malley opened -300 for this fight before dropping to -190. He is currently priced -200 to Yadong’s +170. Total in this three round fight is lined 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Props for this fight are available currently. O’Malley decision is priced -110 but rather than get too cute coming out of the 2026 gate, I’ll simply use

O’Malley -200

(Leg 1, 2 fighter parlay)

In my judgement that puts me with an interest in the fighter the organization wants to move forward into a championship bout.

Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170 Flyweight (125lbs.)

This is a fight between a tall, rangy world class striker in Johnson who is madly active fighting fellow flyweights and a short relatively inactive grappler/wrestler in Alex Perez.

Perez’ inactivity, five fights since 2020 should concern investors, especially understanding that in 2024 he went 1-2 against top fifteen competition then he took only one bout, a loss to Asu Almabaev in 2025.

Perez is willing and experienced but in this matchup he faces an athlete three inches taller who sports a five-inch reach advantage arms with a couple inches advantage legs.

Johnson’s high level of activity (he has had sixteen fights since 2020) his mettle, his striking acumen, and that fact that he arrives to this fight brimming with confidence all force me to regard him as a value despite being a -200 chalk.

Parlay: Johnson -200/O’Malley -200

1u returns 1.25u

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available to all across all podcast platforms. It’s also available GambLou.com

Get all of my final releases for this UFC 324 fight card there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability, UFC

NFL Week 18: Hasten Slowly

NFL week 18 brings more unknown than Christmas day my friends.

We have four games where playoff spots are on the line and a couple others where a team may enhance their position.

For this reason I see myself trying to focus on Panthers and Bucs Saturday, Seahawks and 49ers Saturday night, Bronco and Bolts Sunday late game then the SNF tilt of Steelers hosting the Raven.

I try to invest in integrity games this time of year to prepare for playoff NFL as opposed to trying to figure out whether the Saints or the Dirty bird have more to play for which for both is nothing!

Here’s an early 3 team 10pt Teaser obtained at DraftKings -120:

Buc’s +7.5

Vikings +3.5

Bills +1.5

I have mucho on the Bills Under 10.5 season wins (lost), 11.5 season wins (in play to Jets) and 12.5 season wins (already a winner) so the attempt here is to minimize a touch of my Bill exposure. No doubt however I am a big Jets fan this week despite them having absolutely NO chance of winning.

Next week I’ll make an accounting of all GambLou.com releases across all sports for 2025.

*Photo is of the Westgate Superbook during Covid…. damn near the Twilight Zone!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape: Crown Royval

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape is the organization’s final event in 2026.

To date, Favorites in the UFC stand 320-153-17 or 67%. The last couple of years have seen favorites in the UFC exceed the typical 63% +/- rate of success. Are these higher favorite results the new normal or will we eventually witness some reversion from underdogs?

This week’s event will take place from the UFC APEX facility which utilizes the smaller 25’ octagon and a facility that houses so very few live attendees. There are twelve scheduled bouts five of which will take place at the higher weight limits (welterweight to heavyweight).

There are seven fights where age differences between fighters are five years and greater. We understand the great win advantage being six years younger (62%) provides youthful athletes.

This final fight card is populated with athlete’s arriving with diverse fighting styles yet many of the personalities comprising the event are less recognized names. No matter the fighter’s popularity, all are working diligently to catch lightning in a bottle based on the outcomes of these battles.

Manuel Kape -300 vs. Brandon Royval +255 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

We last watched Brandon Royval lose an ultra-close decision in a battle with now champion of the flyweight division Joshua Van this past June.

Royval, a black belt in BJJ trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s unusually tall, long for this division and his fight weaponry allows him to compete effectively anywhere a fight takes place.

7-4 in the UFC Royval, versed with muay Thai striking acumen has competed and defeated several elite flyweights and has lost only to Brandon Moreno a former champion, Van the current flyweight champion, and Alexandre Pantoja another former flyweight champion.

Royval, who sports a gangly, long physique is looking to bounce off that loss to Van and defeat Kape who arrives to this fight steeped with potential yet burdened by the inability to consistently make weight.

Angola’s Manuel Kape is in fact a freak athlete. He is extremely athletic, unusually deft, and adroit on his feet, his hands are lightning fast, and he delivers strikes with explosive power coupled with extreme precision.

Kape stands 7-3 in the UFC with losses to Matheus Nicolau, former champion Pantoja, and former UFC athlete Mohammad Mokaev a wrestling based fighter.

It’s my judgement that the class of this division is a focused, motivated Manuel Kape but any attempt to understand Kape’s mentality/drive/focus prior to any fight he undertakes seems folly for he is famous for toying with adversaries and losing focus in the heat of battle which manifests itself in dud performances like the loss he incurred to Nicolau or one sided decision victories.

In this fight Kape will own advantages in speed, quickness, footwork, striking accuracy, power, and youth but his adversary Royval will hold height, reach, and grappling advantages over the nimble knockout artist.

Trying to determine the motivation and preparedness of Manuel Kape is no easy task. One would imagine that he would show up to all fights prepared and ready to fire yet on occasion he plays with his food, remains less than active, seems distracted, and can be domineered by formidable wrestling-based athletes (see Mokaev).

Once the bell for this fight chimes, I look for Royval to try to engage Kape and bring him into Royval’s world which is on the ground for a roll. Clasping onto Kape will be Royval’s best ally as he must discourage any form of stand-up battle with the more powerful, faster, skilled striker.

Provided he can find himself in the clasp or clinch with Kape, Royval will then look to control Kape with his Jui-Jitsu and should he be able to ground Kape he will immediately hold advantage as he looks to take the Angolan’s back then choke him out.

Kape will need to find a way to cut the cage on Royval, a nimble yet awkward athlete himself then force him against the fence where he may unleash a barrage of knee’s, damaging fists, and elbows but Kape must remain diligent in not to allowing Royval to clasp onto him.

These two are both left-handed athletes which will add complexity and potentially awkwardness to this fight especially when it comes to the leg kicking aspect of this bout.

Each man has prepared for and competed in main events so the five-round nature of this fight plus the experience of each man sets this battle up to be a fairly one0sided affair should Kape come with urgency, focus and determination which fans cannot always count on.

At the end of the day, we know what we will get from Royval, but it is difficult to predict the mentality of this man Kape.

Should he come ready, willing, and able to fire he should easily dominate Royval and live up to the price he carries on this fight, however, should he be any form of distracted then Royval may have a tremendous opportunity to utilize his BJJ and make this a highly competitive fight despite the heavy price on Kape.

Again, should Kape come motivated and prepared to fire this is a one-sided result.

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Over -150

Melquizael Costa -110 vs. Morgan Charriere -110 Featherweight (145) barnburner

This fight card has several legitimate favorites in well place spots.

One fight that is priced as a coin flip is this highly competitive featherweight tilt.

Costa, a Brazilian enters this fray with a very well-rounded skill set. Fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil, Costa brings effective striking as evidenced by his +1.35 significant strike ratio per five minutes of fight time and solid grappling into this most competitive fight.

Costa who arrives off of four straight wins since a loss to current eighth ranked Stevie Garcia in 2023 has competed against fighters that are not quite top fifteen forces in the division but were worthy of delivering Costa into this most important bout.

French pugilist Morgan Charrier arrives to this confrontation as well rounded in fight weaponry as his opponent Costa however Charriere has been in the cage competing against a more formidable array of opponent.

3-2 in the UFC, Charriere has competed against a higher class of athlete than has Costa. In his two losses he has competed brilliantly and competitively against both Chepe Mariscal in a decision that went against Charriere but should not have, then Englishman Nathaniel Wood, a top fifteen featherweight in my judgement.

Costa stands a couple inches taller than Charriere as well he will sport a two-inch reach advantage which should present him some edge while this fight is on the feet. That said, Charrier’s footwork, his sold wrestling pedigree and his quickness, explosive striking and athleticism are what makes the difference between these two fighters.

This battle will be competitive anywhere it transitions; I look for Charriere who opened -155 in this matchup to hold advantages in level of competition faced, athleticism and dynamic fighting ability.

The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -210 which further highlights the competitive nature of this bout.

Charriere opened -150 in this battle. He has faced more dangerous competition than has Costa and arrives off the momentum of an impressive victory over Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr in Landwehr’s home state of Tennessee.

It’s my judgement that the opening number was a more accurate depiction of how this fight will transpire than current pricing and for that reason I’ll release

Morgan Charriere -110 1u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Beginning 2026 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available across all podcast platforms!

 

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 323 Dvalishvili vs. Yan: Rage against the Machine?

UFC 323, the organization’s last remaining PPV event drops this weekend.

The fourteen-fight slate is scheduled for early prelim action beginning at 3pm PT, prelims drop at 5pm PT and the main PPV portion of the fight card starts at 7pm PT.

There are only seven of twenty-eight athletes competing in this event from the US, so viewers will watch an international set off athletes arriving in Las Vegas to compete.

This year favorites are running a couple of points higher than the usual 63%, they stand 311-150-15 or 65.3%.

Last week we hit a nice parlay paying +2.05u bringing this year’s digital tally to 24-30 -3.72u.

Time to earn!

Merab Dvalishvili -410 vs. Petr Yan +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

Dvalishvili will face Yan in a rematch of a fight from 2023 where Merab dominated Yan in every way, shape, and form.

Dvalishvili’s wrestling is as good as any fighter in the organization as is his cardiovascular dominance. Merab has decent hands that he employs to change up the visual of his unrelenting forward wrestling take down pressure but make little mistake that Dvalishvili, appropriately nicknamed ‘the machine’ is as high an energy fighter as the organization has.

Dvalishvili’s dominance is founded on his ability to compete at 110% output for ten rounds let alone five.

After defeating Yan via one sided decision in 2023, Merab has gone on to dominate each of five world class bantamweight mixed martial artists over the course of his last six bouts (he dominated the singularly dimensioned striker Sean O’Malley twice).

At this point in his evolution Merab needs to remain mentally sharp and motivated because his tireless output inside the cage during fights is unequaled. He batters foes emotionally with his cardio.

In Russian mixed martial artist Petr Yan we have what I regard as one of two legitimate threats to Merab’s title, the other being Umar Nurmagomedov who Merab defeated this past January.

Yan’s boxing/striking is as world class as is Merab’s chain effect wrestling. Yan’s a highly decorated mixed martial artist himself as he holds a Master of Sport in Boxing, a Master of Sport in MMA as well a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

In the first fight between these two Yan was effective striking but his inability to fend off the unrelenting pressure of Merab’s wrestling made the basic difference in the fight.

Yan has since come to voice that he was affected with injury in that first bout but based on his history and overall lack of striking power in that fight and others since, I don’t believe Yan has improved his already world class fighting acumen enough to be able to change what occurred between he and ‘the machine’ in their first bout.

We will see a more concerted effort from Yan to maintain distance and fortify his striking space by utilizing movement for Yan’s only chance to upset the current champion is to outpoint him with his deft stand-up ability.

Should this fight hit the floor however, Dvalishvili, who will be the one flooring Yan, will control the slightly larger, younger Yan and it is on the canvas where Merab’s strength, cardio and heavy top force will allow him to not only maintain control over the third ranked athlete in the division, but reign damage upon him as well.

This fight opened Dvalishvili -260 and his price is now -470.

I would normally try to find any way to regard Yan as able to defeat a champion in Dvalishvili who defends his title for the fourth time this year and second time in two months, but the only ‘legitimate’ threat to Merab in my judgement is the rematch with Umar Nurmagomedov which will occur in 2026 be it Merab or Yan.

In fact, at DraftKings Umar Nurmagomedov to be UFC Bantamweight Champion 12-31-26 is +300.

When Merab defeated Umar this past January, Umar had opened -170 then closed -250ish. When they fight again, and it will be in 2026, that fight will be lined with Merab as favorite, but it will be in the -140 to -170 range. Capturing Umar now will provide great price advantage as we near that rematch.

Total in the Dvalishvili/Yan fight is 4.5Rds Over -445.

Future Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov +300 to be UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026 (available DraftKings).

I’ll be right here next year to follow up on that wager!

Alexandre Pantoja -235 vs. Joshua Van +200 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Current flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title.

Since 2020, the relatively undersized Pantoja has ‘cleaned out’ all viable threats to his title, albeit in a division that has little viewer or popular appeal.

Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring an abundance skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite weaponry upon every type of adversary his size and larger.

Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high energy competition he faces daily at ATT as opposed to the general lack of skilled fighters today competing at 125lbs.

Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler who holds striking aptitude, deft defensive skills and experience that has been developed against the ultimate threats in the division over the course of a decade plus.

Pantoja is lightning quick, strong, and athletic for his age but of all his physical attributes the most apparent trait in his fights is not his physicality, rather it is his mentality.

Pantoja’s mental toughness, his fight IQ, and his zeal to hold this title after struggling for so many years to capture it comprise the fabric of the Pantoja fight arsenal. Never mind his world class BJJ, wrestling and Muay Thai skill.

Pantoja’s opponent for this fight is a talented ascending mixed martial artist, Joshua Van.

Van, a Burmese athlete is a natural fighter. He’s not decorated with any Judo, BJJ or wrestling accolades/belts but what he has shown the ability to do is to show up, throw hands and try to earn victory.

So far this wild ascent from aggressive Van assaults has worked for Van is now thirty months into the UFC and stands 7-1, his sole loss a KO at the hands of Charles Johnson.

Van’s stepping up in class of opponent (understatement) and while he’ll be the younger man at twenty-four he’ll also be in the cage against a savvy, decorated professional who has competed against the elite of this division for over a decade.

Once this fight begins it will be interesting to determine how long it takes Pantoja to ground Van then force the assenting fighter into the very deep waters he has never been taken to.

I find it unlikely that Pantoja will try to play with his food and give the young lion a chance for a ‘Sunday shot,’ rather this will be an all business Pantoja awarding a young talented but not yet ready for the title Josh Van his PhD. In MMA.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -240

Grant Dawson -200 vs. Manuel Torres +175 Lightweight (155lbs.)

We must include the finest example of a ‘styles make fights’ battle as we can imagine.

In one corner we have Mexico’s Manuel Torres, a Muay Thai based killer from Chihuahua, Mexico who is an aggressive, forward pressing striker intent on concussing opponents fearless enough to confront him in a cage.

4-1 in the UFC Torres just decimated journeyman Drew Dober after being schooled at Noche 2024 by Ignacio Bahamondes.

Power striking from distance, apt infighting using elbows, knees, and shoulders or on the ground in top position, Torres has one single point of focus, mar the opponent then take them out.

In Grant Dawson we have the complete counterbalance to the aggressive striking ability of Torres.

Dawson’s a world class wrestling savant. He’s been developing in mixed martial arts repertoire, namely his striking at Florida’s ATT a gym that trains a plethora of world class mixed martial artists. Daily, Dawson is able to sharpen his steel against the many gifted athletes there.

Once this fight starts it will be Torres who must manage to keep this fight at distance and on the feet so he can try to touch the wrestler upon advancement. It will be Dawson’s task to ensure that sometime before fifteen minutes of fight time elapses, that he is able to take Torres to the turf then smother him with ground and pound from top position.

At the end of the day fans want to see finishes and either way in this fight one cat’s going to finish the other evidenced by this total of 1.5 Under -140.

Dvalishvili -410/Dawson-200

2u returns 1.73u

Friday Morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops GambLou.com. Gain all my final UFC releases there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

Three fight slates remain in the UFC for the 2025 campaign.

This week they travel to Qatar for a Fight Night event featuring fourteen scheduled bouts. The UFC will use the 30’ cage for this event which will be populated with thousands of area fans looking to cheer their Muslim brethren to victory over a highly international set of skilled adversaries.

Favorites now stand 299-148-15 in the UFC this year (64.6%).

Three cards remain and the plan is to close the year down with fervor!

Also, please note: this fight card starts Saturday 7am PST with early prelims!

Arman Tsarukyan -500 vs. Dan Hooker +400 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Arman Tsarukyan is a gifted, durable, imposing mixed martial artist who uses vice grip pressure wrestling to help him overcome his short stature and lack of length.

A power striker who must enter the pocket on opponents to unleash power strikes, kicks and elbows, Tsarukyan chooses to work his way into the pocket then soften adversaries up with a few shots them immediately drag them down to the floor for a flogging.

Tsarukyan’s wrestling is as developed and effective as any in the lightweight division and his striking is complete enough to allow him to gain inside position in order to clasp, press and floor opponents.

Tsarukyan’s striking while power based, is also a great weapon for him as he realizes a +1.98 significant strike advantage while still being able to floor anyone in the lightweight division. His take down defense is world class and his aggression coupled with his developed fight arsenal make him a legitimate elite talent in the division.

Tsarukyan missed weight in his title opportunity against Islam Makhachev this past January which did not endear him to the UFC brass to say the least. This is why he has been shelved for some nine month’s awaiting a fight.

In Australian Dan Hooker Tsarukan takes on one of the few fighters in the division who is undaunted by his name, his fight game, and his wrestling heavy aggression.

Hooker, now thirty-five is not nearly the wrestler Tsarukyan is, but he is quite experienced in the UFC, he’ll be the taller man by five inches and will sport a three-inch reach advantage over the forward pressing wrestler from Armenia.

Hooker’s kickboxing is elite as well he is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Hooker enters this firefight after earning victory in his last three fights. The last two against top ranked lightweights in which he earned split decision victories.

In his last win, Hooker defeated one Mateusz Gamrot who’s size, strength, aggression, wrestling ability and body type are almost exactly the same as Tsarukyan’s. He just does not possess the striking power that Tsarukyan totes into any fight.

I cannot think of a better precursor to Tsarukyan for a mixed martial artist than Gamrot. I consider Hooker ready, able, and more than willing to go into this fight believing he can and will win but his age and the amount of attrition he has accumulated over his now eleven plus years in the UFC fighting elite competition has me feeling that he’ll be fodder for his Armenian attacker.

Tsarukyan is the worthy favorite here and I would look to the prop market to find value on the favorite here.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Ian Machado Garry -235 vs. Belal Muhammad +195 Welterweight co main event

Former welterweight champion Muhammad is a world class wrestling based fighter who possesses advanced grappling acumen complimented with unending cardio ability. Muhammad’s conditioning and unrelenting forward pressure allows the former champion to break down opponents via incessant, constant, forceful pressure.

Muhammad’s striking is an area of improvement that he must address, thought Muhammad will tell you he can strike with anyone. Ask Jack Della Maddalena if that is the case!

In actuality and when Muhammad is fighting at his peak, he utilizes his striking only long enough and in order to set up his fighting forte, which is his wrestling.

Any attempt by Muhammad to utilize his striking/kicking as a foundation to earn victory in any top ten UFC welterweight bout will result in him being exposed as he was in his last fight by Jack Della Maddalena. We saw Maddalena was dominated last week by Islam Makhachev who wrestled JDM from bell to bell, pilar to post.

Had Muhammad employed the same wrestling focused tactic in his battle against JDM, it is my position that he would be defending his belt on this card as opposed to having to face an extremely dangerous and highly athletic adversary In Ian Machado Garry.

In Garry we have an extremely well rounded mixed martial artist who is going to realize substantial height, reach and age differences in this matchup. Garry is the more adroit, nimble athletic fighter between these two as well he sports an eleven-year age advantage in this matchup.

Garry’s striking is not power based, but his ability to strike fluidly from every angle and position coupled with his deft footwork allow him to maintain the distance he needs to shred opponents with volume striking with unending volume. Garry’s grappling and wrestling is also world class as he is a black belt in Judo.

Muhammad must employ his forceful, patented unrelenting wrestling pressure to enter the pocket. From inside position, he’ll attempt to clasp onto the long, tall Irishman and commence the clasp, the clinch, and the takedown.

Garry’s style makes that ‘enter the pocket at all costs’ tactic a near impossibility for his athleticism and long, lanky body type coupled with his fluidity of movement make it most difficult for adversaries to be able to cut the cage on him then, even more difficult, back him into the fence to try to clinch him up.

I handicap Muhammad to be made for Garry in this contrast of fighting styles for Muhammad’s success will be founded on his cardio and wrestling while Garry’s advantages will come from his athleticism, well rounded mixed martial arts weaponry, and his ability to make himself a difficult athlete to catch up to let along clock.

Muhammad’s wrestling, his cardio, and the strength of his mentality may see him make it through all five rounds however, Garry’s balanced attack laced with an aggressive, yet evasive foundation make him the legitimate favorite in this clash of fighting styles.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -315

I am of the opinion that this total may move to 4.5 Rds.

This week’s release in what I consider to be another favorite laden fight card:

This week’s wager is a parlay:

Tsarukyan ‘to win via any finish’ -150/Garry Decision -120

1u returns 2.05u

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 322 Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev: Welcome to my ‘Nightmare’

UFC 322 will be held in Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. The Mecca for generational, epic pugilistic battles through the decades.

A packed house will take in twenty-eight fighters competing against one another to jettison their career trajectories and earning power forward into 2026.

There are several fights where there exists a greater than five-year age difference which favors younger combatants. Also, name recognition is higher as ranked and soon to be elite mixed martial artists face one another in what in many cases is an elimination fight.

Last week, I split releases for the second week in a row.

Islam Makhachev -265 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +235 Champion Welterweight (170lbs.)  title

JDM is the current welterweight champion having earned the title in his last battle where he dominated former champion Belal Muhammad (who decided to forgo his forte of wrestling and compete against JDM on the feet) a massive mistake. This was not only unsound strategy, but it allowed JDM to dominate the wrestling-based Muhammad by consistently getting up from the takedown.

In this fight JDM, a black belt in BJJ with a world class boxing background will not be fortunate enough to have an opponent that will fight him at his (JDM’s) advantage.

JDM is the bona fide welterweight athlete. He cuts weight to make it through weigh ins, and he is accustomed to welterweight power, might and size. JDM’s own size will be an adjustment for Makhachev, who holds substantial size advantage over the lightweights but will be on par with Jack.

For Makhachev, an International Master of Sport in combat sambo and a black belt in Judo, the weight of the world is on his shoulders being the next evolution of the Nurmagomedov wrestling dominance in the UFC.

Makhachev’s wrestling is the most dominant in the organization, his training at the hands of his cousin, lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov will prepare Makhachev for everything JDM has to offer by way of fight arsenal.

Makhachev, the most feared wrestling based mixed martial artist on the UFC roster is also an accomplished striker and he will absolutely be willing to strike with JDM because his camp believes as do I that on the feet this fight is even.

Eventually we will see Makhachev transition into his advantage. That advantage is wrestling. He’ll clasp, hit the takedown then drown JDM in the deep waters of Dagestani pressure. It’s Makhacev’s ability to dominate in the wrestling, which will as soon as he decides to employ it will put him at great advantage in this fight.

Fans are advertised to see a fascinating clash of styles but at the end of the day what they may witness is a first class wiping of the matt from Makhachev.

We’ll find out soon enough how complete the JDM wrestling acumen has become in this fight because is sole chance to win this fight is to be able to repel Makhachev take down attempts and keep this fight waged on the feet.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -130

Valentina Schevchenko -135 vs. Weili Zhang +115 Woman’s Flyweight (125lbs.) Title

Chinese mixed martial artist Weili Zhang held the women’s Strawweight championship twice in her career and now she makes the move up in weight class to face Russian fighter Valentina Schevchenko, a combatant as accomplished as any in MMA history.

At strawweight, Zhang faced every form of threat and defended her title numerous times and against every form of mixed martial arts threat, strikers, wrestlers, grapplers, and brawlers.

Zhang’s toughest tests came against Rose Namajunas who beat Zhang twice. Namajunas had deft wrestling/grappling ability to go with effective striking and nimble footwork.

In previous bouts, it’s wrestling where Zhang’s mettle has been most tested, but she’s developed quickly in that artform and arrives to this Flyweight challenge more than ready to try to address the dominance of the Russian Shevchenko.

Current Flyweight Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the 125lb. champion for a second time now and has defeated the who’s who in both the women’s bantamweight and flyweight divisions.

She now finds herself in another title test, this time at a weight division she’s ruled for years but at thirty-seven while the guile and savvy are certainly hers, quickness, power and might belong her adversary.

What Zhang yearns to earn, and what she needs to solidify her claim to being on the woman’s MMA Mount Rushmore is that second title but more impressively… a second title over the GOAT of women’s MMA, Ms. Shevchenko.

This is going to be one of the most dynamic and well-matched fights of the year and I am looking forward to seeing if Zhang can defeat the decision machine that is Valentina Schevchenko and lay claim to defeating the woman currently regarded as the all-time GOAT of women’s UFC.

I believe in Zhang

Zhang +115 1u

Zhang Decision +200 1u

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260

Bo Nickal -215 vs. Rodolpho Viera +190 Middleweight (185lbs.)

This is what I mean when I say that we must be aware of these fight ‘situations.’ This ‘situation’ is relatively clear.

The UFC wants to manicure Bo Nickal and present the all American, world class wrestling talent with an advantageous path to success and popularity. Why? Because he puts seats in seats and sells the UFC!

One may only look as far as to his placement on this main card after being decimated in his last fight by a man who basically quit on his stool in his last fight a month ago.

Nickal’s being matched with what looks like on paper, a tough matchup save for the fact that his opponent is slow as a glacier in his striking and movement, singularly dimensioned as a grappler and will be unable to engage nickel let alone drag him to the floor. This fight was made for Nickal to shine.

Parlay time

Nickal -215/Makhachev -265 1u returns 1.02u

Total in the Nickal/Viera fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my UFC 322 releases there!

Than you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Gamblou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV111 Bonfim vs. Brown: Rude Feud

UFC Fight Night Bonfim vs. Brown drops this Saturday at the APEX facility in Las Vegas, NV.

Thirteen scheduled bouts will be presented with fighters arriving from across the globe to compete in battles being waged from 115lb flyweight ladies to 265lb heavyweight men!

Again this week, the combatants populating this fight card are as relatively obscure and unrecognized at this stage of their careers as the UFC strives this time of year to get fighters scheduled to help fulfill contractual obligations as well put losing fighters on notice.

There are but a handful of fights with aggressive age differences on this card, these statistically favor the younger athlete. Save for one battle on this slate being lined -270 to the favorite, all the other fights on the card are lined competitively for these bouts are well matched.

Last week’s UFC card was/is engrossed in yet another betting scandal however this one is more serious than the last occurrence. I hesitate to report more than this because details are scant and it is responsible to wait for the hard facts before jumping on unreported fact.

Suffice it to say the feds may now be involved. The UFC could now be in a situation of explaining to authorities why they allowed the fight to move forward AFTER they had been warned about the inequities discovered in the betting markets by their watchdog entity Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360), a global compliance technology and advisory platform specializing in comprehensive integrity and regulatory technology*.

More news is coming for certain, and I’ll have strong opinions but only once the hard facts are brought to light!

Last week I split my positions as we earned victory and profit from the Stevie Garcia domination, yet we were robbed of a victory because of ultra dubious refereeing in the Delija vs. Cortez-Acosta fight where Delija was awarded the win, then after video replay and a ten-minute delay the fight was resumed. Seems the UFC is forceful enough to forge their own rules on the fly in these events?!

My fear is that the UFC is transitioning from a legitimate sport with wagering integrity (ala Boxing in the eighties) to scripted outcomes like the WWE. Let’s hope I am incorrect.

Let’s break down a couple of scheduled bouts!

Gabriel Bonfim -185 vs. Randy Brown +160 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Brazilian grappling talent Bonfim is a mixed martial artist who has realized a 5-1 result since his entry into the organization in 2023.

Bonfim, twenty-eight is an accomplished grappler who realizes an average of four plus take downs per fifteen minutes of fighting. His take down defense is solid yet his striking, pedestrian as it is, is still very much in development while his strike defense borders on inadequate.

Bonfim employs forward force to immediately engage opponents. His will to employ his grappling acumen help him cloak the fact that on the feet he is not to the level of top ranked talent in the UFC’s welterweight division.

I say this on the heels of a very controversial (yet another one) decision earned in his most recent fight against Steven Wonderboy’ Thompson. In that fight twelve of fourteen press credentialed professionals in attendance scored the fight for Thomson yet Bonfim was ‘awarded’ a split decision?!

Thomson, a forty one year old with dynamic kickboxing and stand up skills schooled the Brazilian and avoided being grounded yet despite the fact that he did everything he could to ethically earn victory, the decision went to the fighter who has more future merit for the organization as opposed to the fighter who actually won the fight.

Get used to this fight fans because it’s not going away.

In any case, the singularly dimensioned grappler Bonfim takes this fight against another tall, long well-rounded opponent in Randy Brown.

Brown, a Jamaican with a black belt in BJJ and a wealth of experience fights out of Queens, NY.

Brown’s been in with a more competent set of UFC foe, he’s faced fighters of every shape and skillset and provided he can depend on his stout 79% take down defense in this encounter he should be in position to wage this war with Bonfim from the stand-up position which greatly favors him in this fight.

Brown, despite being seven years the more mature fighter at thirty-five is two inches taller than his Brazilian foe as well he sports a six-inch reach advantage over Bonfim who may find it arduous to gain inside position on the athletic jawbreaker from Jamaica.

The telling factor in this fight is where it takes place because if Bonfim is able to bring Brown to the basement floor, he’ll hold advantage but not dominant advantage.

Should Brown be able to keep the Brazilian grappler at distance in a standing battle and force Bonfim into the second round and beyond, he’ll be in terrific position to utilize his well-rounded fight weaponry and beat the Brazilian in a standing battle.

Brown +160

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120

Joseph Morales -270 vs. Matt Schnell +230 Flyweight(125lbs) co-main event

Morales, 2-2 in the UFC received this opportunity because of the dominant upset win he earned earlier in the year against a heavily favored Alibi Idiris. This was Morales’ return fight to the UFC after realizing a 1-2 tally before being cut.

The win against Idiris showed that Morales had improved greatly in his all around mixed martial arts arsenal specifically his wrestling/grappling which will more than likely be needed against this specific opponent.

That opponent, Matt Schnell, is an athlete that is one victory into the UFC after his retirement from the organization. In almost every case of returning athletes post-retirement, the fighter returning from retirement learns that there was a legitimate reason that they had retired in the first place.

For Schnell we see that despite his world class grappling that the rest of his fight weaponry, namely striking and strike defense is lacking to say the least.

Schnell stood 6-7-1 in the UFC when he retired. Then this past April he returned to face an athlete more fragile and unable to take a straight flush to the face than he in fellow flyweight Jimmy Flick.

Schnell won that fight via decision and now after about a decade in the UFC he makes a co-main event appearance against a pugilist that is forceful with his fists and complimented by a complete grappling game.

This is a ‘changing of the guard’ fight as Schnell, who has been finished in all seven of his UFC bouts enters this fight loser of three of his last four.

Despite the fact that Schnell enters off a win, I must handicap the opponent he fought (Flick) as being journeyman material at best and realistically a talent that unfortunately does not belong in the UFC.

Once this fight begins, it will be Schell that will look to lock up and negate distance from the heavy-handed mauler Morales.

Schnell will find that the Morales grappling is not only much improved over his first UFC run but that his striking, kicking, and boxing are level beyond what Schnell will be able to defend or evade.

I handicap this fight to be relatively one sided and one in which I believe Morales shines.

Joe Morales opened -250 in this fight and his price now stands -270 which I believe is a fair representation of each man’s current skill level.

I handicap Morales to execute what the other seven victors have executed against Schnell, which is to finish him, most likely via KO. That said, my approach will be a simple ‘inside the distance’ tactic.

‘Morales to win via KO/Sub or DQ’ -105

at DraftKings. That will be our position to earn one unit in this week’s co main event.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170

Strong lean to Under

Friday morning the ‘But Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. All my final releases .3

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

*Integrity Compliance 360 description came from their webpage.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Garcia vs. Onama: Ante up!

The UFC returns to its APEX facility for this week’s Fight Night event. The fight card is populated with thirteen scheduled bouts utilizing the smaller APEX twenty-five-foot octagon.

An international set of combatants descend on Las Vegas to propel their careers by overtaking other specialized fighters arriving from every corner of the globe.

To date favorites are running 64.6% in the UFC.

Stevie Garcia -120 vs. David Onama +100 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Onama, 6-2 in the UFC trains in Kansas City, MO. He arrives to this main event after having won four straight fights against solid competition. A refugee from Uganda, Onama’s background of despair and immigration to the U.S. is a compelling one.

Athletic and brutally powerful, Onama makes fights by forcing the throwdown. He is fit, experienced in the UFC and packs ridiculous power in his hands despite the fact that he’s earned decisions in each of his last three bouts. Understand however that those recent foes were grizzled UFC veterans themselves.

When the bell rings for a fight, Onama simply walks down his adversary and initiates an immediate throw down in the center of the cage. Those who allow him this form of fight are often finished as it takes deft movement, precision striking laced with speed, quickness, and effective strike evasion to make it a full fifteen with this young aggressor.

In Stevie Garcia we have a fighter that could be described by using the same breakdown as I just gave Onama.

Garcia has the same aggressive approach, the same power and might and arrives with wins in his last six bouts five of which were finishes.

In this slugfest, it is Garcia that will be the slightly taller and longer man who fights from a southpaw stance. Garcia sports a kickboxing and jiu-Jitsu background and has now folded fluid boxing into his repertoire and his defense and strike evasion are what stand out as blatant differences between he and his Ugandan adversary.

This fight will be an absolute barn burning standing battle unless one man gets zapped in which case we may see a takedown attempt.

Onama’s willingness to take a strike in order to deliver one puts Garcia in a slightly more advantageous position because Garcia’s strike defense is foundational to his game as he gets hit with only 2.2 significant strikes out of every five minutes of fight time while his opponent Onama receives a whopping 4.73 per five minutes of fight time.

Evading power fists, elbows, and kicks are as important as landing them and it is in the balance of Garcia where I find advantage for this fight.

Garcia’s patience, his experience, and the ability to evade strikes together make him a very reasonable position and he stands just under his opening number.

Garcia -120

Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -225

Waldo Cortez-Acosta -115 vs Ante Delija -105 Heavyweight (265lbs)

Huge men with power stuffed into the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon has the potential of being a dynamically violent outcome.

Cortez-Acosta is the athlete with more substantial UFC experience. He arrives to this battle 7-2 in the UFC but off a loss in his last battle to Sergei Pavlovich.

The Dominican Acosta nicknamed ‘Sala boy’ has profuse power in all appendages and uses all mixed martial arts weaponry to great advantage for Cortez-Acosta’s strongest fight attribute may be his well-rounded ability as well his granite beard. Cotez-Acosta has never been knocked out nor submitted as his only losses have been decisions.

In Delija we have an athlete new to the organization and with that, far less experience as well he has faced a lesser set of competent fight adversary than has Cortez-Acosta.

The Croatian Delija is beneficiary of this opportunity because after competing with the PFL his move to the UFC has produced two first round decimations over both Yorgan de Castro and Marcin Tybura.

In one corner we have Cortez-Acosta with a depth of UFC experience, substantial power and little wrestling ability other than sturdy take down defense.

In the other corner we have an athletic, adroit power striker in Delija who is more explosive and damaging with his strikes than his opponent however he has not seen the second round of a fight since 2023.

This fight is lined 2.5 Under -125 for a reason and that’s because one of these mammoth men is going to clobber the other.

Which one is it?

I handicap it to be Delija, the more explosive, quicker fresher mixed martial artist.

Delija -105

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops in the morning hours at GambLou.com, catch all my final releases there!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 321 Aspinall vs. Gane: Bon Appetit!

UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi UAE.

Fourteen fights are currently scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.

The large thirty-foot cage will be in use and of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170lbs. or above. Three of those larger bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.

This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money and for the four fighters in the co main and main event, hopefully a title!

There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes as well one needs to be aware of each fighter’s age, and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.

Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 11am PT.

Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Bout

Number one ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion in England’s Tom Aspinall.

This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then champion Jon Jones.

The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid opponent’s strikes.

Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!

In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity despite the fact that he arrives here off of a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.

Gane’s going to require this fight remain on the feet for his fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking which compliments his tremendous athleticism.  Gane’s able to move with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger thirty-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.

In Tom Aspinall we get an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing but then at a young age Aspinall discovered BJJ to which he now sports a black belt.

Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might and while he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence and eventually on the canvass Aspinall has few equals.

Once this fight begins it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler for Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability palls in comparison to Aspinall’s world class mastery.

On the feet this fight takes on a much more competitive tone which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory…. the clinch, the cage press then ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.

Gane’s striking and power must be respected here but Aspinall, who has been stiff armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in decisive manner.

Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC a now aged and evasive Jon Jones but now as undisputed Champion Aspinall turns his attention into becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC, I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.

Aspinall via domination.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -190

Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.)  title

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned victory over Jandiroba via decision.

Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had realized success over mid-tier fighting able ladies, but she struggled beating ranked flyweights.

Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record losing only to Amanda Ribas another Brazilian mixed martial artist.

At her base Jandiroba is a world class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage then floor.

In Mackenzie Dern we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant however Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers her pedigree in BJJ already stood out without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at thirty-two.

Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo and the edge when this fight is on the feet will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte,’ BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Derm must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grapple with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.

Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking will allow her to fold both skills into this fight leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.

The world class BJJ prowess of each woman’s BJJ may cancel each other out which then forces the more versed mixed martial artist to enlist complimentary tactics (striking) and that ability lies with Dern.

Dern’s world class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents positions her logically as favorite in this fight.

Total in this battle: 4.5Rds Over -125

Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Wood, an Englishman with a world class BJJ base is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.

Wood’s BJJ is complimented by his wrestling/takedown ability and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!

Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not to the level his BJJ is however Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can navigate this fight around his lack of striking ability and toward his wrestling/BJJ prowess.

Jose Delgado is a special talent.

Fighting out of the MMALab in Pheonix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic advantages physically. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage arms, two inches with his legs.

Delgado trains with a team of world class competitors, all who compete from 135lbs to 170lbs. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world class UFC fighters named O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, Phillips, etc.

Once this fight begins it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.

Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood but why would he engage it a tight close fight when he sports superior advantage standing?

Delgato will be making his first trip out of the Country to fight so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.

An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set off adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.

What a compelling bout!

Delgado -145 1u

Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380 1u returns 1.12u

Friday morning first thing the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

It’s Business!