Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Garcia vs. Onama: Ante up!

The UFC returns to its APEX facility for this week’s Fight Night event. The fight card is populated with thirteen scheduled bouts utilizing the smaller APEX twenty-five-foot octagon.

An international set of combatants descend on Las Vegas to propel their careers by overtaking other specialized fighters arriving from every corner of the globe.

To date favorites are running 64.6% in the UFC.

Stevie Garcia -120 vs. David Onama +100 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Onama, 6-2 in the UFC trains in Kansas City, MO. He arrives to this main event after having won four straight fights against solid competition. A refugee from Uganda, Onama’s background of despair and immigration to the U.S. is a compelling one.

Athletic and brutally powerful, Onama makes fights by forcing the throwdown. He is fit, experienced in the UFC and packs ridiculous power in his hands despite the fact that he’s earned decisions in each of his last three bouts. Understand however that those recent foes were grizzled UFC veterans themselves.

When the bell rings for a fight, Onama simply walks down his adversary and initiates an immediate throw down in the center of the cage. Those who allow him this form of fight are often finished as it takes deft movement, precision striking laced with speed, quickness, and effective strike evasion to make it a full fifteen with this young aggressor.

In Stevie Garcia we have a fighter that could be described by using the same breakdown as I just gave Onama.

Garcia has the same aggressive approach, the same power and might and arrives with wins in his last six bouts five of which were finishes.

In this slugfest, it is Garcia that will be the slightly taller and longer man who fights from a southpaw stance. Garcia sports a kickboxing and jiu-Jitsu background and has now folded fluid boxing into his repertoire and his defense and strike evasion are what stand out as blatant differences between he and his Ugandan adversary.

This fight will be an absolute barn burning standing battle unless one man gets zapped in which case we may see a takedown attempt.

Onama’s willingness to take a strike in order to deliver one puts Garcia in a slightly more advantageous position because Garcia’s strike defense is foundational to his game as he gets hit with only 2.2 significant strikes out of every five minutes of fight time while his opponent Onama receives a whopping 4.73 per five minutes of fight time.

Evading power fists, elbows, and kicks are as important as landing them and it is in the balance of Garcia where I find advantage for this fight.

Garcia’s patience, his experience, and the ability to evade strikes together make him a very reasonable position and he stands just under his opening number.

Garcia -120

Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -225

Waldo Cortez-Acosta -115 vs Ante Delija -105 Heavyweight (265lbs)

Huge men with power stuffed into the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon has the potential of being a dynamically violent outcome.

Cortez-Acosta is the athlete with more substantial UFC experience. He arrives to this battle 7-2 in the UFC but off a loss in his last battle to Sergei Pavlovich.

The Dominican Acosta nicknamed ‘Sala boy’ has profuse power in all appendages and uses all mixed martial arts weaponry to great advantage for Cortez-Acosta’s strongest fight attribute may be his well-rounded ability as well his granite beard. Cotez-Acosta has never been knocked out nor submitted as his only losses have been decisions.

In Delija we have an athlete new to the organization and with that, far less experience as well he has faced a lesser set of competent fight adversary than has Cortez-Acosta.

The Croatian Delija is beneficiary of this opportunity because after competing with the PFL his move to the UFC has produced two first round decimations over both Yorgan de Castro and Marcin Tybura.

In one corner we have Cortez-Acosta with a depth of UFC experience, substantial power and little wrestling ability other than sturdy take down defense.

In the other corner we have an athletic, adroit power striker in Delija who is more explosive and damaging with his strikes than his opponent however he has not seen the second round of a fight since 2023.

This fight is lined 2.5 Under -125 for a reason and that’s because one of these mammoth men is going to clobber the other.

Which one is it?

I handicap it to be Delija, the more explosive, quicker fresher mixed martial artist.

Delija -105

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops in the morning hours at GambLou.com, catch all my final releases there!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 321 Aspinall vs. Gane: Bon Appetit!

UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi UAE.

Fourteen fights are currently scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.

The large thirty-foot cage will be in use and of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170lbs. or above. Three of those larger bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.

This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money and for the four fighters in the co main and main event, hopefully a title!

There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes as well one needs to be aware of each fighter’s age, and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.

Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 11am PT.

Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Bout

Number one ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion in England’s Tom Aspinall.

This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then champion Jon Jones.

The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid opponent’s strikes.

Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!

In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity despite the fact that he arrives here off of a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.

Gane’s going to require this fight remain on the feet for his fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking which compliments his tremendous athleticism.  Gane’s able to move with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger thirty-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.

In Tom Aspinall we get an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing but then at a young age Aspinall discovered BJJ to which he now sports a black belt.

Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might and while he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence and eventually on the canvass Aspinall has few equals.

Once this fight begins it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler for Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability palls in comparison to Aspinall’s world class mastery.

On the feet this fight takes on a much more competitive tone which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory…. the clinch, the cage press then ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.

Gane’s striking and power must be respected here but Aspinall, who has been stiff armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in decisive manner.

Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC a now aged and evasive Jon Jones but now as undisputed Champion Aspinall turns his attention into becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC, I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.

Aspinall via domination.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -190

Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.)  title

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned victory over Jandiroba via decision.

Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had realized success over mid-tier fighting able ladies, but she struggled beating ranked flyweights.

Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record losing only to Amanda Ribas another Brazilian mixed martial artist.

At her base Jandiroba is a world class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage then floor.

In Mackenzie Dern we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant however Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers her pedigree in BJJ already stood out without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at thirty-two.

Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo and the edge when this fight is on the feet will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte,’ BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Derm must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grapple with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.

Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking will allow her to fold both skills into this fight leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.

The world class BJJ prowess of each woman’s BJJ may cancel each other out which then forces the more versed mixed martial artist to enlist complimentary tactics (striking) and that ability lies with Dern.

Dern’s world class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents positions her logically as favorite in this fight.

Total in this battle: 4.5Rds Over -125

Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Wood, an Englishman with a world class BJJ base is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.

Wood’s BJJ is complimented by his wrestling/takedown ability and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!

Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not to the level his BJJ is however Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can navigate this fight around his lack of striking ability and toward his wrestling/BJJ prowess.

Jose Delgado is a special talent.

Fighting out of the MMALab in Pheonix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic advantages physically. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage arms, two inches with his legs.

Delgado trains with a team of world class competitors, all who compete from 135lbs to 170lbs. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world class UFC fighters named O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, Phillips, etc.

Once this fight begins it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.

Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood but why would he engage it a tight close fight when he sports superior advantage standing?

Delgato will be making his first trip out of the Country to fight so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.

An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set off adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.

What a compelling bout!

Delgado -145 1u

Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380 1u returns 1.12u

Friday morning first thing the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 320 Ankalaev vs. Pereira: The REMATCH

This week the UFC is in Las Vegas for UFC 320 a PPV event featuring fourteen great mixed martial arts fights headlined by two five round championship bouts. One, a bantamweight title fight in the co main event and second, the main event which give us the long-anticipated rematch of Magomed Ankalaev the current UFC Light Heavyweight titleholder facing the former champion in Alex Pereira.

All fourteen bouts will be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of a boisterous Las Vegas T Mobile arena crowd.

There are seven fights featuring welterweight men and larger which I track because of the higher percentage of finishes for the larger bodied fighters. There are also a few fights featuring fighters with substantial age differences (five or more years) that are of note.

Early Prelims for UFC 320 begin at 3pm PT with Prelims at 5pm PT and finally the PPV portion of the card dropping 7pm PT.

Magomed Ankalaev -240 vs. Alex Pereira +200 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title

Russian Light heavyweight Champion Ankalaev is an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He enters this fight brimming with confidence after having defeated Pereira this past March in relatively one-sided affair.

Ankalaev fights with ‘grappling on his mind’ and while he is effective and powerful with his striking, he is not overly quick, precise, or dazzling in that specialty. Ankalaev relies heavily on his kicking attack as an effective weapon to not only create distance but also back opponents up so he may earn his way into the pocket and transition to his vice grip wrestling ability.

Ankalaev will be the slightly shorter man giving up reach in this fight so the metrics for his success means he must work his way into the pocket and squelch the reach/striking length and thus effectiveness of ‘Poatan’ in order for him to realize success in this fight. He seemed to have little problem gaining inside position in their first fight so it will be interesting to see what if any adjustments each combatant bring to this rematch.

For Pereira, the story is that in UFC competition, his grappling/wrestling and BJJ were only adequate and nowhere near the level of expertise that he holds with his world class kickboxing, Muay Thai striking abilities.

In their first fight it’s my belief that Pereira’s travel and UFC appearances (he missed few UFC events) impeded his ability to train effectively for their first bout especially when we saw how lethargic and listless he looked in battle.

That mentioned we must heap some credit on Ankalaev for basically beating Pereira at his own game…the stand up!

Will Ankalaev utilize a wrestling/grappling heavy approach for this fight in order to change it up on Periera or will he walk the former champion down on the feet in order to corner him and force pressure onto the Brazilian striker in order to sap him of his snap and power?

Pereira’s height, reach and precision power striking/kicking must be utilized more effectively in this fight to back Ankalaev up then appropriating distance, reign damage on the current titleholder.

Ankalaev for his part must back up Periera with forward pressure, constant clutching and even though he did not take Pereira down in the first fight it is my judgement that he will need to in order to retain his title in this bout.

For Pereira, he needs to arrive more prepared to fight in a war, he must utilize his footwork to maintain ideal striking distance then try to time power punches, knees, and elbows onto the incoming grappler when he attempts to force his way inside.

Ankalaev’s Sambo and unrelenting forward pressure must be dealt with and Periera’s adjustments from the first fight will need to be addressed by the current champion as well.

While Pereira’s been training BJJ, and wrestling take down defense with Glover Teixeira constantly we saw little of that art in the first fight as Ankalaev effectively beat Pereira at his own game…stand up striking!

Ankalaev is a fighter with world class mixed martial arts ability however his aura is as exciting as old cardboard.

Ankalaev does not move the public needle in the slightest and while that should never apply in any modern mixed martial arts competition the fact is that the UFC bonus’ fighters for exciting finishes, devastating knockouts and crowd crazed performances of which Ankalaev has never been apt at.

Meanwhile Pereira’s aura, his devasting power and his public following DO move the UFC needle and make little mistake that this rematch was set up to give Pereira (and the UFC) a shot at winning that title back in order to breath fire and intensity into the division again.

Intangibles like this may seem remote and obscure but make little mistake in the fact that the UFC really wants/needs Pereira back as titleholder in order to ‘move the needle’ on viewership for future title shots because with Ankalaev this division is dried out and dormant. Unfortunate but true.

Can ‘Poatan’ find his ‘Chama’ and get the light heavyweight title back in his hands and inject excitement and eyeballs back into the division?

His camp as well the UFC sure hope so!

Ankalaev opened -200 for their first fight and he opened -180 for this one. He now stands -240 with the takeback on Pereira +200.

I am fascinated to determine what Periera will do and can do to change the result of the fight they competed in this past March.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -170, the March fight’s total was 2.4 and the result was a decision.

Merab Dvalishvili -380 vs. Cory Sandhagen +325 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

Sandhagen is the forth ranked bantamweight in the division. He is a tall, long highly agile striker who utilizes his length and body frame as effectively as anyone in the organization.

Decorated with a brown belt in BJJ Sandhagen is also highly dangerous on the ground because of the combination of his grappling experience and his physically freakish length.

Sandhagen sports a +1.66 significant strike differential to go along with his take down average of 1,30 per fifteen minutes of fight time. About the only susceptibility Sandhagen has is that because of his unusual length he is open to opponents take downs for he is effective in stopping the takedown only 62% of the time.

In Georgian champion Merab Dvalishvili we get a short, squat, highly motivated cardio machine who is gifted with unbelievable cardio ability, world class wrestling acumen and in the cage, an extremely aggressive nature.

Merab owns the record in the UFC for takedowns as he has realized 97 of them in fifteen UFC bouts for an average of 5.84 take downs per fifteen minutes of fight time.

In fights Merab puts new meaning to ‘unrelenting forward pressure’ a term I use to describe aggressive wrestlers.

Once this fight begins I handicap Sandhagen attempting to use his length, athletic nature and all his savvy to try to maintain striking distance in order to club, knee and elbow Dvalishvili as he rushes to engage in the takedown.

Space, distance and striking will be Sandhagen’s allies in this fight while Merab will strive to enter the pocket on the challenger, clasp onto him then drag him to the floor for a trip to hell.

Dvalishvili is a gifted wrestler who understands that the UFC is looking for excitement and flash finishes. His only potential pitfall in this fight is to believe that he can stand and strike with a much taller man that is a more refined, specialized, and precise striker.

In this fight Merab needs to stick to his strength, come out and ground Sandhagen then put him into the meat grinder for as long as Sandhagen can survive.

Should he come out swinging he could find himself being carried out on his shield.

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -325

I’ll take the easy route this week and play a main event parlay:

Ankalaev -240 to Dvsalishvili -380 1.28u to earn 1u

Unusual as it is, I am unable to feel confident in any underdog releases this early in the UFC 320 week. Friday my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops and I’m certain to have located a stray mutt or two by then.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Perth: Beatdown on the Boorloo

After a week off, the UFC travels to Perth, Australia for this week’s Fight night event.

The card offers fight enthusiasts fourteen bouts thirteen of which feature an athlete from Oceania facing someone from outside that region. There are few fights featuring wide gaps in age which by the numbers favor the younger fighter.

Seven of the fourteen fights will be held at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Larger men competing translates to a higher rate of finishing potential which will thrill the voracious Aussie crowd who will pack the house to back their compatriots all of whom will compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon.

Prelims begin at 4pm PT with the main slate scheduled to begin at 7pm PT.

Carlos Ulberg -260 vs. Dominic Reyes +220 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Third ranked Ulberg arrives to compete in front of his brethren. He arrives with a statuesque physique, sharp effective kickboxing prowess, and tremendous momentum.

His father, a boxer, raised Ulberg in the sweet science before Ulberg transitioned into kickboxing where his 6’4” frame, his wild athleticism, and his aggressive nature could thrive, and dominate.

Ulberg is undefeated as a professional save for his UFC debut where he was finished by Kennedy Nzechukwu who has now moved up to heavyweight. Since that fight Ulberg’s torn through the division winning eight straight against legitimate but not world class competition save for the two recent victories over Volkan Oezdimer and Jan Blachowicz both of which were decisions.

Ulberg’s fight plan is simple, maintain precious distance which allows him to attack opponents with straight fists, ‘teep’ kicks and any array of knees and elbows. Ulberg is quite agile and quick for his size which magnifies his natural power.

One comment about Ulberg’s competition that must be mentioned is that the UFC has spoon fed this striker with like-minded adversaries (fellow strikers) as Ulberg to date has yet to face any athlete who arrives with the ambition of wrestling/grappling Ulberg.

It’s my judgement that the UFC in its ambition to ‘encourage’ mixed martial arts growth in this geographical area has manicured Ulberg’s schedule to ‘contribute’ to his ascent in the division especially since the fall off of previous champions in the region Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski.

Californian Dom Reyes is best known for beating Jon Jones but not receiving the actual decision via judges.

A swoon followed that fight as Reyes went to the dark side losing in violent fashion to competent ranked adversaries, but he remained focused and confident in his approach and in his ability to compete in this division.

He now finds himself ranked seventh among light heavy’s and he’ll soon be in the cage with third-ranked Ulberg after having won his last three battles.

Reyes and Ulberg are quite similar in all the physical aspects of fighting that I track. Reyes’ background in wrestling gives him some advantage should this fight hit the mat but in all reality this will be a stand-up match and one where Reyes’s skills are being discounted and overlooked as I handicap this fight.

Reyes’ level of competition faced plus the fact that he did not fold up after those colossal losses years ago tells me the guy wants to be here.

He wants to be champion, and after the display he produced against then champion Jones years back his belief now after three wins is strong. The results Reyes has earned in his last three fights allow me to handicap him as being more competitive than current pricing indicates.

This fight reminds me a little of the Johnny Walker fight in China when he was set up to be the patsy for Mingyang Zhang and he ended up winning via finish.

Reyes has the tools, the experience, the belly but most importantly the belief to make this fight so much more of a battle than the marketplace is giving him credit for.

There is value on Dom Reyes at this price.

Reyes +220

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

As mentioned above this card is basically an Oceania vs. the World set up.

We understand that the goal here is to put the local/regional fighters in favorable positions but with fourteen opportunities it’s my role to find a ‘ship in’ that will arrive live to their battle and earn victory.

Justin Tafa -125 vs. Louie Sutherland +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Aussie Justin Tafa is a large, powerful heavyweight who is equipped to compete in any stand-up battle but finds himself unable to deal with the diversity of a founded mixed martial artist’s weaponry especially if it includes wrestling/grappling.

Tafa’s last two fights were losses against nominally talented opponents and in this one he receives the advantage of taking on a debuting adversary.

In Sutherland we have an English bloke who can strike, kick and choke. Sutherland will be the taller, longer, larger heavyweight in the cage and his aggressive nature and ability to grapple will provide the Englishman with tremendous opportunity here.

Yes, Sutherland is being sent into Australia to be the fall guy for the local here, but it is my position that this fight not only exceeds the total but will end with Sutherland +105 getting his hand raised.

Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -150

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is off a 5+ unit profit last card and like fighters we too carry great momentum into this fight slate. Catch all my final releases for this fight card Friday midday at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC NOCHE Silva vs. Lopes: La Noche Triste?

San Antonio, Texas hosts this week’s UFC Noche event which traditionally has been a tribute to the Mexican fighting culture but has expanded to include other Latino and South American cultures into the tribute.

There are fourteen scheduled bouts on this fight slate, one of which is a TUF final where debuting athletes will compete for their chance to be included in the UFC.

Several athletes competing on this card are Mexican or of Mexican heritage as well there is another handful of fighters arriving from Central and South America to compete.

We have but two bouts featuring men weighing more than 170 lbs.

San Antonio will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon for this event. Needless to say the Lone Star/Mexican crowd will show up to cheer on their brethren and jeer their foes.

Last week I split positions as Mason Jones -120 captured a great comeback win for us but Ciao Borralho -120, looked like a deer in the headlights as he fought in tepid, timid fashion and was dominated by Nassourdine Imavov.

Let’s knuckle up for Noche!

Jean Silva -240 vs. Diego Lopes +210 Featherweight (145lbs) main event

This will be an incredible matchup of young, ascending UFC talent.

Brazilian banger Jean Silva, a member of the once untouchable ‘Fighting Nerds’ team from Brazil enters this fight with immense momentum.

Silva is lighting fast, has great feet which allows him to shift, evade and maneuver fluently in the heat of battle and of course he has solid grappling and explosive, lighting quick striking acumen which is speed, precision and power based.

Silva, ‘Lord’ as he is called in the cage is an obtusely aggressive wrecking machine of a barking fighter who steps only forward in his zeal to annihilate any foe at his earliest possible opportunity.

Silva will utilize any opportunity outside the cage to bombard opponents with his trash talk and brazen attitude. He wins many of his battles before the bell for round one chimes but in this adversary he will be tested and tested to his core!

Silva has accrued a positive strike differential of .74 significant strikes per round and has realized five straight finishes in the UFC. The competition he has faced he has demolished and the acumen of the fighters he has demolished have grown over time in fight competence and ability.

Raging, aggressive, athletic, a fierce competitor with a brazen attitude, this is tenth ranked featherweight Jean Silva.

Standing on the other side of the cage from this maniac Silva is second ranked featherweight Diego Lopes.

Diego Lopes enters this fight the more stoic, composed, patient mixed martial artist. His base is boxing/striking and BJJ though in recent months Lopes has been grinding on his wrestling development which is testimony to his focus to become a complete world class champion.

Though less vocal and bombastic than his opponent, Lopes’ method of attack is a bit more undercover. He chooses to conduct himself as a silent assassin.

Diego systematically breaks down adversaries by using unrelenting forward pressure to corner opponents then bombard them with power striking combinations, knees and elbows included.

What makes this fight so fascinating is the dynamic clash of physical as well mental approaches in this fight.

Silva will be a barking dog up until the bell for round one rings then he’ll attack like a rabid animal.

Lopes will look like he is on vacation prior to this fight for he is stoic and calm at all times. He will arrive a focused warrior who will hold youth, height and reach advantages over his front running foe.

Lopes has actually been in the cage with a far superior set of adversary than has Silva and similar to some other ‘fighting nerd’ teammates recently, the feeling here is that Silva’s opening price of -250 (which is where he is priced currently) is giving the barking Brazilian well too much credit despite the string of success he has realized.

Yes, Silva may be the faster, quicker athlete in the cage but the inner drive and fortitude of Lopes, his diligence and his experience coupled with his size advantages force me to believe that the barking Brazilian Silva is going to be muzzled come Saturday night.

Lopes +210

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds -160 Over

Alex Hernandez -135 vs. Diego Ferriera +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

The thirty-two-year-old Alex Hernandez just competed and dominated young Chase Hooper on the sixteenth of last month. Hernandez was an underdog going into that fight and he finished Hooper, who many thought would dominate the ‘great ape’ with his grappling and cardio.

Hernandez is a fighter who can be very inconsistent. Early in fights he shows quickness, strength, determination, power, and urgency however after the first round Hernandez often slows, his striking becomes more telegraphed, and his lack of cardio often exposes him to counterattack as he struggles to maintain his pace throughout fifteen minutes.

His opponent Diego Ferreira is now forty years old and has a depth of UFC experience. He is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who has been in the cage with a highly pedigreed set of UFC adversary.

Ferreira arrives off a loss to wrestling savant Grant Dawson in January so he is the beneficiary of a full camp to prepare for this fight…he just discovered recently that it would be Hernandez on short notice off of his impressive win.

Ferreira has a couple inches of reach advantage in this matchup while Hernandez is the younger fighter as mentioned.

Once this fight begins I look for Ferreira to control the pace and utilize aggressive forward pressure to back Hernandez up and force him to work from his back foot.

Hernandez is best when he is moving forward and firing so he’ll attempt to meet Ferreira in the center of the cage for a throwdown which in my handicapping favors Ferriera not only for his power but also for his ability to weather an early storm and take this fight into the later rounds where his cardio (despite his age) will present him advantage as Hernandez begins to wilt.

There is recency bias affecting the line in this fight toward Hernandez as I handicap Ferreira to be the more experienced, stronger more developed and complete mixed martial artist.

Ferreira +115

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -125

Claudio Puelles -120 vs. Joaquim Silva +100 Lightweight (155lbs)

Puelles is a grappling specialist from Peru now training in Florida because he understands that his lack of wrestling ability and his inadequate striking must be complimentary to his fight arsenal as opposed to adversarial to it.

Puelles looks the part as he is going to be the taller, longer younger athlete in the cage, but he must grab ahold of his opponent and ground him in order to realize ANY success as he is lacking a well-rounded array of mixed martial arts ability.

Brazilian Silva is a short, compact, powerfully built, well rounded mixed martial artist. 2-2 in his last four fights, Silva’s two losses were against pedigreed fully equipped opponents who were able to test him everywhere.

Silva’s biggest advantage in this battle is his well rounded mixed martial arts base coupled with his depth of experience against pedigreed, ranked adversaries.

In this fight Puelles will pose a threat only in the clinch and on the matt for on the feet he’ll get carved up like a Christmas goose as Silva is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black Kurang in Muay Thai striking.

Finally, Puelles is solely a submission specialist and little more, Silva who has been a professional fighter for fourteen years…. has NEVER been submitted.

Silva +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -145

Friday Morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access that at GambLou.com.

Enjoy Noche and the hostilities surrounding that fight card!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Paris Imavov vs. Borralho: French Inhaler

The UFC is overseas for this week’s fight card as Paris, France will be the location for UFC FN Paris. This fight card begins at 9am PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which starts at Noon PT.

There are thirteen schedule bouts on this fight program. Seven of those matchups feature larger men weighing 170lbs. or more which usually means a greater opportunity for violence and finishes.

Five athletes from France populate the card as well there are another handful of fighters featured on this slate from European countries in close proximity to France, look for those athletes to be the beneficiaries of the local crowd.

Vilified on this fight card will be seven athletes strategically located (on the fight card) who travel in from the US/Brazil who face the local/regional talent. They’ll compete in the large 30-foot octagon with a full house of French fight fanatics looking to fuel hostilities!

Favorites this year in the UFC are running 65.7% which is eye wateringly high. Underdogs like Charles Johnson +180 last fight card are rare as eight/nine of twelve fights are ending with the chalk getting their hand raised thus far in 2025.

Reversion? I believe so, but we will need to undertake betting underdog fighters with diligence, scrutiny, and selectivity moving forward!

Let’s Fight!

Nassourdine Imavov +105 vs. Ciao Borralho -125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov, a Russian athlete training in Paris is currently ranked second in this ultra-competitive division.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last four fights against respected, ranked opponents. He bested former champion Israel Adesanya in impressive fashion in his latest victory.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking effectiveness is accumulative in effect though not flashy, and precision based.

While the hulking Imavov is not overly one punch powerful, he will utilize a combination of all his fight weaponry to overtake opponents in the cage though time and perseverance.

Imavov’s strengths are his well-balanced fight arsenal, his durability/toughness and in this battle he’ll have the crowd in his corner jeering at his Brazilian nerd opponent.

The Imavov blueprint in fights is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can and has been depleting to his cardio which in this fight is foundational.

Imavov’s high early output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war against the seventh ranked athlete in the division.

Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho enters this showdown with confidence surging. His team, the ‘Fighting Nerds’ have taken the UFC by storm and Borralho, its leader arrives with a black belt Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking as well a brown belt in Judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite. Borralho’s combination of fight weaponry, mental toughness and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.

Once this fight begins it will be Imavov, in my judgment, who will attempt to fend off the pressure of Borralho with his footwork and striking in essence maintaining distance between the two in order to try to use his height and reach advantages to their full potential.

Imavov, while gifted on the ground would be foolish in my estimation to try to force the fight there simply because I handicap Borralho to hold substantial advantage in the clinch, against the fence and particularly on the floor.

On the feet it’s my judgment that Borralho forces this fight and attacks Imavov immediately in order to test the Russian’s will, his cardio but most especially his willingness to eat a ‘Sunday shot’ for Borralho has accused Imavov of not wanting to get touched on the teeth.

Both men hold similar positive strike differentials and on paper the grappling does look to be close in ability despite the fact that in application, Borralho will hold GREAT advantage on the ground.

This fight may well be a showcase for Borralho for his outward aggression, his forceful forward pressure, and the power of his strikes together with the completeness of his grappling will make this a truly intriguing matchup but one where I must lean to Borralho who opened +135 in this matchup.

Borralho -125

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Mauricio Ruffy -185 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis +160 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Thirteenth ranked BSD hit the organization with fury! Prior to fighting he was a member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment; a unit of the French Army Special Forces Command which means he is a national hero in France.

BSD hit the UFC with vigor, after a short notice loss in 2021 he rattled off five straight wins in the organization before biting off a little more than he could chew in fights against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.

His last effort showed the BSD resilience as he returned for UFC 315 and finished journeyman fighter Kyle Prepolec in the second round.

BSD, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Judo has flash, power, and durability. Quickness, deft footwork, and precision striking are traits he is yet developing. This fight, in France and against a formidable Brazilian opponent who is also on the ascent may present fight fans with as interesting a matchup as we have seen in the UFC in months!

In Maricio Ruffy we get yet another teammate of the ‘Fighting nerds.’

Ruffy has none of the official BJJ, Muay Thai or Judo decorations of others on this fight card but what he does have is supreme confidence, deft footwork, acute quickness, speed, precision striking/kicking aptitude and he is ultra-aggressive.

Ruffy looks to shut opponents down as opposed to earn victory via the attrition of decision fighting.

These two men are quite similar physically, but Ruffy does possess a couple inch reach advantage with arms and legs which will help the Brazilian fight effectively from the distance he works so diligently to establish.

For BSD, he’ll need to navigate himself inside the spatial gap that Ruffy will work to create. BSD will be like a ‘fence ready for painting’ if he is unable to effectively penetrate the distance maintenance that Ruffy will work so hard to establish and control.

From the inside BSD will be able to both work his grappling while simultaneously negating the distance Ruffy needs to unleash those spinning wheel kicks and knees, elbows, and jabs.

Saint-Denis, still developing in his UFC acumen, has shown himself to be a formidable opponent for fighters outside the top ten of this division, however results inside the top ten display that his skills and experience leave him a bit lacking as BSD is still a developing mixed martial artist.

Ruffy is an established, ascending fighter who looks well matched in this battle while BSD will need to call upon all of his mettle, experience, and former military fortitude in order to effectively compete against this flamboyant lightning fast, destructive monster of a lightweight talent.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Mason Jones -135 vs. Bolaji Oli +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Oki is a slick, fast, striker who has earned a 2-1 tally thus far in the UFC. Though a touch inexperienced, Oki displays the athleticism and striking acumen that can cause less nimble athletes’ real duress.

In Mason Jones we get a Welch fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC after taking a little time away to develop his fight arsenal more completely and by that I mean he needed to develop a stronger wrestling base.

Mason may not be the athlete his opponent is, but he is more experienced at this level than his opponent as well he has been in the throes of competition against more formidable adversaries than has Oki.

The styles make fights matchup of the day is this battle. Will Oki be able to maintain distance and avoid the detonation striking of Jones? Or will Jones’ forward pressing aggression and striking bluntness eventually wear Oki down and into unconsciousness?

Jones -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155

Remember fight fans this card kicks off at 9am PST Saturday. My final releases for this card will be posted on GambLou.com Friday AM, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access the information.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Shanghai: Chinese wreckers

From the epic production that was the violence filled UFC 319, to a more boutique Fight Night event we go!  This week’s UFC FN Shanghai will kick off at Midnight PT with the preliminary card then at 3am PT the main card will drop.

There are twelve bouts from this Shanghai fight card currently scheduled, a large cage will be in use and a full hose crowd of Chinese fight fans eager to enjoy mixed martial arts battles will be present, they’re as passionate as any fanbase anywhere.

We’ll see five bouts where there exists a greater than five-year age difference between combatants. This is important to understand as athletes with six years of youth advantage historically realize a 62%-win advantage.

There are six local Chinese athletes featured on the card, and they face a smattering of athletes from across the globe and in almost each case the local/regional athlete is presented with advantage, because they face opponents five or more years elder than they.

In four of the five fights where there is a five year or greater age difference …lo and behold it is the local Chinese athlete that are the beneficiary of that advantage.

There are five ‘big boi’ fights where men weighing 170 pounds or more compete. These fights often end in or with a finish.

The UFC knows exactly what it’s doing (presenting local area athletes with a relatively advantageous opponent situation) when it exports its product outside the U.S. as their zeal to expand the brand  is unquenchable.

Last week I rode with the defending Champion middleweight Dricus du Plessis believing he would bully his opponent, the favored Kamzat Chimaev in their title bout. I could not have been more incorrect. Chimaev made DDP look like he had never competed in a wrestling competition as well he made me look like I have not been handicapping fights for some forty-five plus years!

On we go!

Mingyang Zhang -340 vs. Johnny Walker +290 Light Heavyweight (205lbs) main event

Brazilian Walker was training in Ireland and has now moved his training to Las Vegas’ Xtreme Courture. Walker is the thirteenth ranked fighter in the division. He is a brown belt in BJJ and an extremely dangerous, powerful striker. Walker is highly athletic and unusually structured for a light heavyweight talent.

Finding athletes who are keenly coordinated, nimble afoot and that carry natural God given power are rare in combat sports, but Walker has the tools to destroy any adversary in any fight and at any time.

Walker’s 6’5” frame coupled with his dynamic litheness are facets opposing fighters all struggle with for Walker is aggressive, able to move with fluidity and he’s extraordinarily strong and powerful with all his striking weaponry.

What Walker struggles with is something that a fighter is never able to overcome or improve, and this shortcoming has cost Walker his positionwith in the elite of the division because of this shortcoming.

His shortcoming is his lack of ability to take a flush fist to the face.

Since 2023 Walker’s realized a 0-2-1 mark in the UFC. His lack of ability to evade power strikes is a shortcoming he must address one way or another because if he could employ his athleticism to more effectively evade incoming power punches he would be better suited to realize success and dynamic., violent success at that.

At the heart of the issue for Walker is his inability to absorb legitimate light heavyweight striks to his head. Since 2019 Walker has lost six of eleven fights and in all six losses he was knocked unconscious.

Trying to navigate a ‘balsa wood beak’ in today’s light heavyweight division of the UFC is close to an impossible task which is why Walker, who is well equipped in all aspects of mixed martial arts is the sizable underdog he is to this relatively novice athlete Zhang who has but three UFC battles under his belt.

In fact, it is my judgement that Walker’s been placed in this position to serve as ‘patsy’ for Zhang in this fight because Walker’s lack of ability to take a knock to the nose feeds right into Zhang’s strength which is power striking.

In the aforementioned Mingyang Zhang we have a relatively new, developing UFC talent. Zhang is used to being the taller, longer athlete in the cage so for this fight he will have to navigate Walker’s size, length, kicking acumen, experience, and profuse punching power.

Zhang’s a fighter who began to refine his Sanda* fighting style/expertise in a Shaolin Monastery as a youth developing his craft. Eventually he earned a blue belt in BJJ to go with that expertise and today Zhang arrives to this fight the next big, hyped athlete in the UFC from China.

While Zhang is a heavy favorite for this battle, I believe that Walker’s experience, his size, length, and razor-sharp striking style will provide him plenty of opportunity to shine in this fight.

The ultra-athletic Walker, must evade the slow, telegraphed power strikes from Zhang who is nowhere near as nimble afoot or athletic as Walker.  Walker stands in great position to be able to defeat a man much less athletically equip than he, however, should Walker incur one or more power strikes from Zhang, he is liable to crumple to the floor like a dropped bag of sand.

The price screams for me to give Walker a chance in this spot but Walker’s porcelain chin forces me to think twice about backing him.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -300

That total verifies that one man is going to potentially bludgeon the other…. which man Clobber’s and which man gets clobbered I am not certain, but what I am feeling confident about is the Over and more particularly the prop ‘fight starts round 2’ which will be out later this week.

Lone’er Kavanaugh -205 vs. Charles Johnson +180 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Kavanaugh from England is 9-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC. Kavanaugh is short, squat, powerful and well rounded for he can wrestle.

Johnson arrives to China off a loss in his last bout after rattling off four straight UFC wins prior. He has numerous physical advantages in this fight. He is the taller man by five inches; he sports a three-inch reach advantage with both legs and arms. Johnson also owns advantage in level of competition faced and of course UFC experience.

Once the bell for this fight rings the test for Kavanaugh will be to penetrate Johnson’s length/striking to earn his way inside the pocket where he can mute Johnson’s striking prowess while doing damage to the longer taller fighter via his power striking and kicks.

For Johnson, this fight is all about distance and whether he can maintain it appropriately and by all means keep this fight standing so he can execute a plan that entails ‘painting Kavanaugh’s fence’ as the shorter Englishman attempts to work his way inside.

These two men are Flyweight athletes vying in a large cage which often means a decision fight. Proof of that statement is evidenced by this fight’s total which is currently lined 2.5rds Over -335!

That total attests to the fact that this fight will be like watching two wasps warring in a mason jar. At the end of the day, Johnson’s experience, size, and length make the difference here as well he can be captured as an underdog.

Johnson +180

The ‘Bout Business’ Podcast will have all my final releases available sometime Friday before mid-day PT. Remember fight fans this card kicks off in the wee hours of Saturday morning PT so be prepared to enjoy a little OJ with your Omaplata!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

*Sanda is a Chinese form of mixed martial arts that combines kicking, striking, and grappling.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 319 Du Plessis vs. Chimaev: Collar tie on Clark

This week’s event is called UFC 319, and it will be one of five final PPV events for the UFC as in 2026 the platform for UFC events will be Paramount and CBS in essence killing the antiquated PPV model for a much more lucrative opportunity. There is much to comment upon here but that will be saved for another time.

Saturday UFC fight fans will witness a terrifically matched main event of Middleweight stalwarts where champion Dricus Du Plessis a South African faces number three ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler who many regard as the most dangerous athlete on the roster.

The fight card kicks off with early preliminary action at 3pm PT, regular prelims start at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the card drops at 7pm PT.

There are currently thirteen scheduled bouts for this fight slate. Five of those bouts are comprised of men weighing 170lbs. or more so focus on those fights for the higher probability of finishing potential.

There are five fights where the youth advantage is at least six years or greater and two fights between athletes who compete against one another and are at least thirty-seven years old. The geriatric bouts!

Last week my suggested parlay position lost bringing results for this column to 16-18 -.47u for the year.

Let’s get back into the black this week!

Khamzat Chimaev -230 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +195 Champion Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Chimaev is a Russian demolition man decorated with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess. He fights/trains between Sweden and the UAE. Chimaev hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential thus far in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues, inactivity and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division outside of his last victory, a walloping of Robert Whittaker who had been a perennial top five athlete in the division for a decade as well a former champion of the division.

Chimaev’s other two middleweight wins were against Kevin Holland a fighter made for Chimaev, then former middleweight champion Kamaru Usman a welterweight himself who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close majority decision despite taking the bout on very short notice and travelling around the globe to vie against the young Russian. Tlast October’s defeat of former champion Whittaker.

Chimaev, in previous fights, has shown himself to be complete monster in the first two rounds before he begins to wear signs of fatigue. I’m certain he’s addressed the matter but suffice it to say that this champion is a legit hulking middleweight and he will not tire.  Those glimpses of fatigue from Chimaev against undersized foes like Gil Burns and Usman is a contributing factor to how I handicap this battle..

Chimaev faces elite middleweight competition in this fight and a man with drive perseverance and pride. Without question Champion Dricus Du Plessis is a much more dangerous opponent to Chimaev than anyone Chimaev has competed against in battle and in practice.

South African Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, he has an unconventional, awkward, uneven approach to his fighting. He is a massive sized man, he is dynamically strong, has great cardio and is as tough and durable as any fighter on the roster.

What Du Plessis is not is nimble footed, slick, fast, or precise with his striking which favors him in this fight for he’ll not need to call upon any of those skills to best Chimaev as Du Plessis will attack the bully and try to steal his will with aggressive blunt force forward pressure.

Du Plessis lives by the adage that ‘every action has an equal and opposite reaction’ so the Du Plessis plan in any fight but most especially in this one, will be to take the fight directly to Chimaev and execute a pulverization of said adversary until he succumbs.

This is a fight that one must watch from the beginning for Chimaev will look to dominate Du Plessis early with his forceful, smothering, grappling acumen and try to overwhelm him, in essence he’ll attempt to drown the champion with the force of his grappling/wrestling pressure.

For Du Plessis, he has little intention of evading and buying time to take Chimaev deep into this fight rather he wants to overwhelm Chimaev in his own strategy, by attacking him from the opening bell.

Yes, I believe Du Plessis will look to bully the bully for this approach has shown promise in the past against the lesser experienced Chimaev especially after the first five/ten minutes of fighting when fatigue begins to creep in and is able “to make cowards of us all.”

Chimaev has had but one fight since October of 2023 and while he has likely improved his weaponry specifically his cardio capability in the months leading up to this fight, his lack of live octagon work in the last eighteen months must be mentioned.

Meanwhile Du Plessis has faced and earned victory in nine straight UFC bouts, four of them title defenses and against the elite of the MIDDLEWEIGHT division. In the time that Chimaev has had one bout, DDP’s competed in three different title defense fights.

Du Plessis’ fortitude, his size, strength, and experience will all be required in this fight against what many inside the UFC and outside of it regard as a legitimate ‘boogie man.’

I sense that the uber aggression and forward pressure of Du Plessis, provided he is able to navigate this fight into the third round, will eventually drain the energy and will from the front running bully from Beno-Yurt, Chechnya, Russia.

In order to retain his title, Du Plessis must execute the best first ten minutes of fighting since his career started because anything less than that form of effort will find him in the clasp of one of the deadliest submission specialists in the UFC.

Du Plessis +195

This line is slowly rising so use patience and catch the best price possible on DDP.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -125

Carlos Prates -245 vs. Goeff Neal +205 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Texan Neal is an accomplished striker who has power in all appendages. Neal, also a purple belt in BJJ, is currently ranked eleventh in a division full of absolute killers.

Neal arrives hot off a win over Rafael Dos Anjos after having dropped a couple of bouts to legitimate, elite top ten talent in the division in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

In twelfth ranked Carlos Prates we have a chain-smoking Brazilian gangster who is a black belt in BJJ and an ultra-aggressive striker with power.

Several factors force me to regard Prates as most dangerous in this spot. He sports height, reach, and age advantages over Neal, he’s the faster more dynamic athlete despite the fact that he has a heater hanging out of his mouth at all times save for the time he spends fighting in the cage.

Once the bell rings for this fight, we will see too aggressive strikers, both of whom have been defeated by Garry, approach each other with the sole purpose of knocking the other unconscious.

Neal will be the slightly more compact power striker where Prates will be the longer, lengthier, more diversely equipped striker who will employ a forceful leg attack to numb the sound, determined Neal, and take away his movement.

This fight has every indication of being an all-out stand-up battle that fight fans should not miss. At the end of the foray I believe it will be Prates who is able to walk away the victor more than likely via finish.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -165

Edson Barboza -155 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

Brazilian Barboza at thirty-nine moves back up to his original UFC division Lightweight, for this battle of relevance in the UFC.

Klose, his opponent from Phoenix, AZ. is the legitimate lightweight, but he is now thirty-seven himself and enters this key fight off a loss to Joel Alvarez after having won four straight fights in a row.

Both of these men are lethal strikers Klose with heavy hands and more of a direct approach to battle and Barboza with the more diverse striking attack featuring leg numbing kicking acumen.

This fight has finish written all over it but it’s my judgement that it takes one man more than seven minutes thirty seconds to finish the other.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -200

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops at GambLou.com.  There all my final releases for UFC 319 may be accessed.

Thank you for Reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV109 Hernandez vs. Dolidze: The Butcher, the Baker…

 

Last week UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024 when favorites ran above 70%!

As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX where fights are still held in the small twenty-five-foot cage. That mentioned, athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility where the crowds are now slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights prior to the remodel.

This card is schedule for eleven fights, it has only four battles at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above as well there are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater with the most obtuse difference being a SEVENTEEN year between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes and in this case the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.

I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is  in UFC outcomes especially when said youth is complimented with size and length.

Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest itself in every way, shape, and form and in this column weekly we try to expose readers to the nuances of those nuances and advantages.

This LV 109 fight card starts at 1pm PST with the prelims then the main card drops at 4pm PST.

Last week Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world class mixed martial artist.

Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round.

That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now to stack wins together in order to finish this 2025 campaign with enhanced bottom line.

This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on the VSiN digital magazine, the column has realized bottom line profitability in each year since VSiN began and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces fight fans and let’s invest into LV 109!

Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who is able to pivot between both light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.

Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler, his size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level and his striking is power based. Cardio? Well Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in negative fashion.

In this fight Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter fleeter footed athlete. Ideally Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.

Dolidze will/should choose to work the body in order to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful this fight transitions to his favor for he is heavy handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine.

Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event.

His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.

Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically for he overshadows him in significant strike differential, take down ability and take down defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early ten minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first ten minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.

Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism of cardio ability of Hernandez.

At the end of the day Hernandez’ diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which Hernandez wins this bout. I believe a late round finish either ground and pound or submission is in the cards for this fight.

Total in this fight is 3.5Rds. Under -115

Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili Featherweight +195 (145lbs.)

Andre ‘Toucy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some twelve years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.

Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire and at the ripe fighting age of thirty-five, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.

Fili will be the taller athlete in this matchup as well, the longer, fighter which he is used to. However, Fili’s height once a great advantage to him when younger actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion has regressed and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.

In Chistian Rodriguez we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick, he has great feet which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.

Rodriguez’ last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.

While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years the younger fresher fighter force me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.

This week’s investment: A parlay

Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320

1.15u to earn 1.02u

Total in this bout stands 2.5Rds Over -220

Rodriguez is NOT overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO so tread carefully with this total.

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 318 Poirier vs. Holloway for the BMF Championship

New Orleans, LA. Is the location for this week’s UFC 318, a PPV event featuring fourteen bouts with early preliminary action beginning 3:15pm PT, prelims kick at 5pm PT then the PPV portion of the event drops at 7pm PT.

A large thirty-foot octagon and a house full of overserved swamp rats will cheer for the local athletes of which Dustin Poirier is but two Louisiana natives on the card.

Of the fourteen fights, nine take place at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above and of those nine, eight are placed in the prelims of this card so violence begins early and runs throughout the slate!

Again this week we have some ‘mature’ athletes hitting the cage. The UFC is offering us seven bouts where the age difference exceeds five years.

As discussed last week, the fact that younger athletes particularly in matchups where they are also taller and have limb reach over the opponent hold abnormal advantage especially if the fight plays out to be waged on the feet.

Last week eight of nine younger fighters facing older competitors earned victory with the only exception being Derrick Lewis, who arrived with experience and level of competition faced advantage.

It pays to undertake the appropriate due diligence when assessing these bouts.

The Favorite/Dog count for last week was 8-4 making favorites in 2025 65.2%.

Let’s Fight!

Dustin Poirier +105 vs. Max Holloway -125 Lightweight (155lbs) main event

Trilogy fight

This fight is for the ‘BMF’ title that the UFC created some years ago. Further, this fight is the third between these two men with Poirier, a Louisiana native having won the first two bouts, the first in dominant fashion when Max debuted in the UFC and took the fight on oh so short notice, and the second, for the lightweight title in 2019 when Poirier won in a close decision.

Poirier opened -150 for this fight, but he has now been bet into the underdog position while money has come in on his opponent. Many fight investors are wary when athletes announce retirement BEFORE a fight, and I believe this has much to do with the line movement in this fight.

Poirier is a black belt in BJJ with dynamic boxing credentials, he is the former lightweight interim champion who has competed against the elite of this division for several years.

Poirier will be the older athlete, the shorter athlete, and the athlete with a deficit in arm/leg reach which together and with the retirement announcement help explain why this line has been ebbing toward Holloway.

Poirier packs profuse power in his strikes/kicks, he is a formidable wrestler and has great durability and cardio. He takes this challenge after realizing a 1-2 record over the last couple of years losing to Justin Gaethje via finish as well Islam Makhachev in the same manner.

Poirier is a pressure fighter will look to force Holloway backwards in this fight, keep him on his heels and attack the longer, taller man with the formidable power of his striking/kicking.

It is inside the pocket, pressed against the fence and in toe-to-toe confrontation that Poirier will hold his greatest advantage for his strength and unrelenting forward pressure factor favorably for him.

Max Holloway the current ‘BMF’ title holder gives the Louisianan Poirier, a former BMF titleholder the opportunity to retire with that BMF belt but make little mistake, Holloway is not doing this for Poirier, rather he’s doing this to destroy Poirier in this third fight and ride off with a win, the BMF belt and a future championship bout in this lightweight division.

Holloway, thirty-three, has fully evolved into the lightweight frame, and he retains his snap, quickness, and his fleet-footed ability all while enhancing the power/effectiveness of his strikes.

Holloway, except for his last battle against Topuria, has been able to evade incoming power punches and land counters off the aggression of opponents then attack once the incoming opponent is harmed.

Holloway’s height, reach and length (arms/legs) position him advantageously in this brawl …. while it remains standing.

Holloway’s significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time stands at +2.4 while Poirier’s ratio stands +.97 significant strikes landed per round. What this highlights is the activity and volume of Max while also displaying the lower volume higher impact/power of Poirier.

Once the bell for round one rings, I expect each man to begin to try to systematically beat the other man down. These men have a total of six rounds against each other in prior competition, so I envision few surprises, few new twists, rather I envision two proud, stubborn warriors each hunting to incapacitate the other.

Poirier has the more daunting task because when these two last tangled Poirier was thirty-one while max was twenty-eight, now thirty-six and on the shelf since June of last year, Poirier prepares for a final confrontation that will take his best effort to win.

Holloway does not enter this battle unscathed! He arrives off a devastating KO at the hands of Ilya Topuria last year in October, so each man enters this battle off a damaging loss.

Two forceful, proud, world class fighters who are as capable mentally as they are physically, men who are intimately familiar with each other will meet in the middle of a thirty-foot cage this Saturday in New Orleans to determine which warrior walks out of the cage with the BMF belt.

In my estimation this is an ultimate competition and one that may not make it to the final bell!

What more could we ask for in a main event?

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -140

Roman Kopylov -250 vs. Paolo Costa +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main

Roman Kopylov, fourteenth ranked in the division is a Russian striker with deep background in combat sambo. Kopylov arrives at this fight having earned victory in his last two in a row pushing his UFC tally to 6-3.

His loss two fights back was to legitimate top ten middleweight Fluffy Hernandez is the only thing preventing Kopylov from entering the top ten of this division.

In this fight, he enters with a slight reach advantage and a negligible significant strike differential. Yes, Kopylov accepts just as many significant strikes as he unleashes.

Kopylov is versed in wrestling/grappling but utilizes that skill only when needed because he prefers to use his height and reach to deploy his striking offense on opponents.

Thirteenth ranked Brazilian hotwire Paolo Costa has a size/athletic advantage over Kopylov in this fight besides being the more explosive combatant. Costa is the more experienced fighter because he has competed against numerous top ranked adversaries.

The brazen Brazilian is a paltry 1-4 in his last several UFC competitions albeit against elite competition within the division. Costa’s performances sway between confounding and impressive based upon nothing that I have been able to detect or handicap.

Costa is a true pariah.

When mentally/physically prepared to fight for a full three rounds Costa may be regarded as a legitimate top ten talent in the division.

The issue with Costa is his lack of appropriate mental preparation, his flakey focus and his fleeting fortitude for Costa enjoys all aspects of life that tend to corrode elite fighting talent.

What he has shown a propensity to detest are stringent training, mental discipline, and innate confidence.

What is certain is that Kopylov enters this fight prepared to do anything he can to steal Costa’s reputation and ranking.

What is not certain (in this or any other battle for that matter) is the mental condition and physical conditioning of Costa entering this fight.

For this reason I will choose to watch this bout because there is no way to trust the approach in this or any fight from Paolo Costa.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -200

That total indicates Costa competence…. something I am unwilling to invest in.

Dan Ige -175 vs. Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire +145 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Freire, ‘Pitbull’ as he is nicknamed, is a thirty-eight year old legend of mixed martial arts who never had the chance to compete in the UFC until his last fight where they presented him a taller, longer, younger, ranked opponent in number three ranked featherweight Yair Rodriguez who made Pitbull look his age in a unanimous decision loss.

Now Pitbull turns it around just twelve weeks after that one-sided decision loss to Rodriguez.

Pitbull is a warrior and if given the chance to compete in the UFC six years ago he would have been able to display his world-class talent and without doubt would have competed for a title. But at this age, and after the attrition he has incurred from a lifetime of mixed martial arts his skills are waning, his reaction time is slowing and his ability to navigate in front of larger, younger men is waning.

Pitbull’s opponent for this bout is none other than eleventh ranked Dan Ige who notably took the fight last summer against Diego Lopes on hours’ notice and fought an excellent fight in losing a decision.

Ige is afforded advantage in this fight that he rarely realizes in that he is five years the younger fighter, he is an inch the taller man and he holds a six-inch reach advantage.

Add to that the fact that Ige’s been set back each time he fights an elite top ten talent and we have the recipe for a focused driven Dan Ige here who is prepared to utilize his physical advantages as well as his youth and quickness to further expose the proud aged Pitbull in a fight that I see going to decision.

Ige -175 is the favorite in this fight, and I must say that this price is very affordable given the dynamics of this fight.

Ige -175*

*I’ll use Ige -175 as the first leg of a parlay and pair him with a fighter from next week’s slate, D’Mon Blackshear -258 who battles England’s Davey Grant at UFC Abu Dhabi

This one-unit investment returns 1.19u

Total in this fight 2.5Rds over -280

Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off a 5-0 weekend last week so join me at GambLou.com to access this week’s UFC 318 releases!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!