Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC NOCHE Silva vs. Lopes: La Noche Triste?

San Antonio, Texas hosts this week’s UFC Noche event which traditionally has been a tribute to the Mexican fighting culture but has expanded to include other Latino and South American cultures into the tribute.

There are fourteen scheduled bouts on this fight slate, one of which is a TUF final where debuting athletes will compete for their chance to be included in the UFC.

Several athletes competing on this card are Mexican or of Mexican heritage as well there is another handful of fighters arriving from Central and South America to compete.

We have but two bouts featuring men weighing more than 170 lbs.

San Antonio will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon for this event. Needless to say the Lone Star/Mexican crowd will show up to cheer on their brethren and jeer their foes.

Last week I split positions as Mason Jones -120 captured a great comeback win for us but Ciao Borralho -120, looked like a deer in the headlights as he fought in tepid, timid fashion and was dominated by Nassourdine Imavov.

Let’s knuckle up for Noche!

Jean Silva -240 vs. Diego Lopes +210 Featherweight (145lbs) main event

This will be an incredible matchup of young, ascending UFC talent.

Brazilian banger Jean Silva, a member of the once untouchable ‘Fighting Nerds’ team from Brazil enters this fight with immense momentum.

Silva is lighting fast, has great feet which allows him to shift, evade and maneuver fluently in the heat of battle and of course he has solid grappling and explosive, lighting quick striking acumen which is speed, precision and power based.

Silva, ‘Lord’ as he is called in the cage is an obtusely aggressive wrecking machine of a barking fighter who steps only forward in his zeal to annihilate any foe at his earliest possible opportunity.

Silva will utilize any opportunity outside the cage to bombard opponents with his trash talk and brazen attitude. He wins many of his battles before the bell for round one chimes but in this adversary he will be tested and tested to his core!

Silva has accrued a positive strike differential of .74 significant strikes per round and has realized five straight finishes in the UFC. The competition he has faced he has demolished and the acumen of the fighters he has demolished have grown over time in fight competence and ability.

Raging, aggressive, athletic, a fierce competitor with a brazen attitude, this is tenth ranked featherweight Jean Silva.

Standing on the other side of the cage from this maniac Silva is second ranked featherweight Diego Lopes.

Diego Lopes enters this fight the more stoic, composed, patient mixed martial artist. His base is boxing/striking and BJJ though in recent months Lopes has been grinding on his wrestling development which is testimony to his focus to become a complete world class champion.

Though less vocal and bombastic than his opponent, Lopes’ method of attack is a bit more undercover. He chooses to conduct himself as a silent assassin.

Diego systematically breaks down adversaries by using unrelenting forward pressure to corner opponents then bombard them with power striking combinations, knees and elbows included.

What makes this fight so fascinating is the dynamic clash of physical as well mental approaches in this fight.

Silva will be a barking dog up until the bell for round one rings then he’ll attack like a rabid animal.

Lopes will look like he is on vacation prior to this fight for he is stoic and calm at all times. He will arrive a focused warrior who will hold youth, height and reach advantages over his front running foe.

Lopes has actually been in the cage with a far superior set of adversary than has Silva and similar to some other ‘fighting nerd’ teammates recently, the feeling here is that Silva’s opening price of -250 (which is where he is priced currently) is giving the barking Brazilian well too much credit despite the string of success he has realized.

Yes, Silva may be the faster, quicker athlete in the cage but the inner drive and fortitude of Lopes, his diligence and his experience coupled with his size advantages force me to believe that the barking Brazilian Silva is going to be muzzled come Saturday night.

Lopes +210

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds -160 Over

Alex Hernandez -135 vs. Diego Ferriera +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

The thirty-two-year-old Alex Hernandez just competed and dominated young Chase Hooper on the sixteenth of last month. Hernandez was an underdog going into that fight and he finished Hooper, who many thought would dominate the ‘great ape’ with his grappling and cardio.

Hernandez is a fighter who can be very inconsistent. Early in fights he shows quickness, strength, determination, power, and urgency however after the first round Hernandez often slows, his striking becomes more telegraphed, and his lack of cardio often exposes him to counterattack as he struggles to maintain his pace throughout fifteen minutes.

His opponent Diego Ferreira is now forty years old and has a depth of UFC experience. He is a third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu who has been in the cage with a highly pedigreed set of UFC adversary.

Ferreira arrives off a loss to wrestling savant Grant Dawson in January so he is the beneficiary of a full camp to prepare for this fight…he just discovered recently that it would be Hernandez on short notice off of his impressive win.

Ferreira has a couple inches of reach advantage in this matchup while Hernandez is the younger fighter as mentioned.

Once this fight begins I look for Ferreira to control the pace and utilize aggressive forward pressure to back Hernandez up and force him to work from his back foot.

Hernandez is best when he is moving forward and firing so he’ll attempt to meet Ferreira in the center of the cage for a throwdown which in my handicapping favors Ferriera not only for his power but also for his ability to weather an early storm and take this fight into the later rounds where his cardio (despite his age) will present him advantage as Hernandez begins to wilt.

There is recency bias affecting the line in this fight toward Hernandez as I handicap Ferreira to be the more experienced, stronger more developed and complete mixed martial artist.

Ferreira +115

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -125

Claudio Puelles -120 vs. Joaquim Silva +100 Lightweight (155lbs)

Puelles is a grappling specialist from Peru now training in Florida because he understands that his lack of wrestling ability and his inadequate striking must be complimentary to his fight arsenal as opposed to adversarial to it.

Puelles looks the part as he is going to be the taller, longer younger athlete in the cage, but he must grab ahold of his opponent and ground him in order to realize ANY success as he is lacking a well-rounded array of mixed martial arts ability.

Brazilian Silva is a short, compact, powerfully built, well rounded mixed martial artist. 2-2 in his last four fights, Silva’s two losses were against pedigreed fully equipped opponents who were able to test him everywhere.

Silva’s biggest advantage in this battle is his well rounded mixed martial arts base coupled with his depth of experience against pedigreed, ranked adversaries.

In this fight Puelles will pose a threat only in the clinch and on the matt for on the feet he’ll get carved up like a Christmas goose as Silva is decorated with a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black Kurang in Muay Thai striking.

Finally, Puelles is solely a submission specialist and little more, Silva who has been a professional fighter for fourteen years…. has NEVER been submitted.

Silva +100

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -145

Friday Morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access that at GambLou.com.

Enjoy Noche and the hostilities surrounding that fight card!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Paris Imavov vs. Borralho: French Inhaler

The UFC is overseas for this week’s fight card as Paris, France will be the location for UFC FN Paris. This fight card begins at 9am PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which starts at Noon PT.

There are thirteen schedule bouts on this fight program. Seven of those matchups feature larger men weighing 170lbs. or more which usually means a greater opportunity for violence and finishes.

Five athletes from France populate the card as well there are another handful of fighters featured on this slate from European countries in close proximity to France, look for those athletes to be the beneficiaries of the local crowd.

Vilified on this fight card will be seven athletes strategically located (on the fight card) who travel in from the US/Brazil who face the local/regional talent. They’ll compete in the large 30-foot octagon with a full house of French fight fanatics looking to fuel hostilities!

Favorites this year in the UFC are running 65.7% which is eye wateringly high. Underdogs like Charles Johnson +180 last fight card are rare as eight/nine of twelve fights are ending with the chalk getting their hand raised thus far in 2025.

Reversion? I believe so, but we will need to undertake betting underdog fighters with diligence, scrutiny, and selectivity moving forward!

Let’s Fight!

Nassourdine Imavov +105 vs. Ciao Borralho -125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov, a Russian athlete training in Paris is currently ranked second in this ultra-competitive division.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last four fights against respected, ranked opponents. He bested former champion Israel Adesanya in impressive fashion in his latest victory.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking effectiveness is accumulative in effect though not flashy, and precision based.

While the hulking Imavov is not overly one punch powerful, he will utilize a combination of all his fight weaponry to overtake opponents in the cage though time and perseverance.

Imavov’s strengths are his well-balanced fight arsenal, his durability/toughness and in this battle he’ll have the crowd in his corner jeering at his Brazilian nerd opponent.

The Imavov blueprint in fights is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can and has been depleting to his cardio which in this fight is foundational.

Imavov’s high early output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war against the seventh ranked athlete in the division.

Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho enters this showdown with confidence surging. His team, the ‘Fighting Nerds’ have taken the UFC by storm and Borralho, its leader arrives with a black belt Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking as well a brown belt in Judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite. Borralho’s combination of fight weaponry, mental toughness and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.

Once this fight begins it will be Imavov, in my judgment, who will attempt to fend off the pressure of Borralho with his footwork and striking in essence maintaining distance between the two in order to try to use his height and reach advantages to their full potential.

Imavov, while gifted on the ground would be foolish in my estimation to try to force the fight there simply because I handicap Borralho to hold substantial advantage in the clinch, against the fence and particularly on the floor.

On the feet it’s my judgment that Borralho forces this fight and attacks Imavov immediately in order to test the Russian’s will, his cardio but most especially his willingness to eat a ‘Sunday shot’ for Borralho has accused Imavov of not wanting to get touched on the teeth.

Both men hold similar positive strike differentials and on paper the grappling does look to be close in ability despite the fact that in application, Borralho will hold GREAT advantage on the ground.

This fight may well be a showcase for Borralho for his outward aggression, his forceful forward pressure, and the power of his strikes together with the completeness of his grappling will make this a truly intriguing matchup but one where I must lean to Borralho who opened +135 in this matchup.

Borralho -125

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Mauricio Ruffy -185 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis +160 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Thirteenth ranked BSD hit the organization with fury! Prior to fighting he was a member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment; a unit of the French Army Special Forces Command which means he is a national hero in France.

BSD hit the UFC with vigor, after a short notice loss in 2021 he rattled off five straight wins in the organization before biting off a little more than he could chew in fights against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.

His last effort showed the BSD resilience as he returned for UFC 315 and finished journeyman fighter Kyle Prepolec in the second round.

BSD, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Judo has flash, power, and durability. Quickness, deft footwork, and precision striking are traits he is yet developing. This fight, in France and against a formidable Brazilian opponent who is also on the ascent may present fight fans with as interesting a matchup as we have seen in the UFC in months!

In Maricio Ruffy we get yet another teammate of the ‘Fighting nerds.’

Ruffy has none of the official BJJ, Muay Thai or Judo decorations of others on this fight card but what he does have is supreme confidence, deft footwork, acute quickness, speed, precision striking/kicking aptitude and he is ultra-aggressive.

Ruffy looks to shut opponents down as opposed to earn victory via the attrition of decision fighting.

These two men are quite similar physically, but Ruffy does possess a couple inch reach advantage with arms and legs which will help the Brazilian fight effectively from the distance he works so diligently to establish.

For BSD, he’ll need to navigate himself inside the spatial gap that Ruffy will work to create. BSD will be like a ‘fence ready for painting’ if he is unable to effectively penetrate the distance maintenance that Ruffy will work so hard to establish and control.

From the inside BSD will be able to both work his grappling while simultaneously negating the distance Ruffy needs to unleash those spinning wheel kicks and knees, elbows, and jabs.

Saint-Denis, still developing in his UFC acumen, has shown himself to be a formidable opponent for fighters outside the top ten of this division, however results inside the top ten display that his skills and experience leave him a bit lacking as BSD is still a developing mixed martial artist.

Ruffy is an established, ascending fighter who looks well matched in this battle while BSD will need to call upon all of his mettle, experience, and former military fortitude in order to effectively compete against this flamboyant lightning fast, destructive monster of a lightweight talent.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Mason Jones -135 vs. Bolaji Oli +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Oki is a slick, fast, striker who has earned a 2-1 tally thus far in the UFC. Though a touch inexperienced, Oki displays the athleticism and striking acumen that can cause less nimble athletes’ real duress.

In Mason Jones we get a Welch fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC after taking a little time away to develop his fight arsenal more completely and by that I mean he needed to develop a stronger wrestling base.

Mason may not be the athlete his opponent is, but he is more experienced at this level than his opponent as well he has been in the throes of competition against more formidable adversaries than has Oki.

The styles make fights matchup of the day is this battle. Will Oki be able to maintain distance and avoid the detonation striking of Jones? Or will Jones’ forward pressing aggression and striking bluntness eventually wear Oki down and into unconsciousness?

Jones -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155

Remember fight fans this card kicks off at 9am PST Saturday. My final releases for this card will be posted on GambLou.com Friday AM, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access the information.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Shanghai: Chinese wreckers

From the epic production that was the violence filled UFC 319, to a more boutique Fight Night event we go!  This week’s UFC FN Shanghai will kick off at Midnight PT with the preliminary card then at 3am PT the main card will drop.

There are twelve bouts from this Shanghai fight card currently scheduled, a large cage will be in use and a full hose crowd of Chinese fight fans eager to enjoy mixed martial arts battles will be present, they’re as passionate as any fanbase anywhere.

We’ll see five bouts where there exists a greater than five-year age difference between combatants. This is important to understand as athletes with six years of youth advantage historically realize a 62%-win advantage.

There are six local Chinese athletes featured on the card, and they face a smattering of athletes from across the globe and in almost each case the local/regional athlete is presented with advantage, because they face opponents five or more years elder than they.

In four of the five fights where there is a five year or greater age difference …lo and behold it is the local Chinese athlete that are the beneficiary of that advantage.

There are five ‘big boi’ fights where men weighing 170 pounds or more compete. These fights often end in or with a finish.

The UFC knows exactly what it’s doing (presenting local area athletes with a relatively advantageous opponent situation) when it exports its product outside the U.S. as their zeal to expand the brand  is unquenchable.

Last week I rode with the defending Champion middleweight Dricus du Plessis believing he would bully his opponent, the favored Kamzat Chimaev in their title bout. I could not have been more incorrect. Chimaev made DDP look like he had never competed in a wrestling competition as well he made me look like I have not been handicapping fights for some forty-five plus years!

On we go!

Mingyang Zhang -340 vs. Johnny Walker +290 Light Heavyweight (205lbs) main event

Brazilian Walker was training in Ireland and has now moved his training to Las Vegas’ Xtreme Courture. Walker is the thirteenth ranked fighter in the division. He is a brown belt in BJJ and an extremely dangerous, powerful striker. Walker is highly athletic and unusually structured for a light heavyweight talent.

Finding athletes who are keenly coordinated, nimble afoot and that carry natural God given power are rare in combat sports, but Walker has the tools to destroy any adversary in any fight and at any time.

Walker’s 6’5” frame coupled with his dynamic litheness are facets opposing fighters all struggle with for Walker is aggressive, able to move with fluidity and he’s extraordinarily strong and powerful with all his striking weaponry.

What Walker struggles with is something that a fighter is never able to overcome or improve, and this shortcoming has cost Walker his positionwith in the elite of the division because of this shortcoming.

His shortcoming is his lack of ability to take a flush fist to the face.

Since 2023 Walker’s realized a 0-2-1 mark in the UFC. His lack of ability to evade power strikes is a shortcoming he must address one way or another because if he could employ his athleticism to more effectively evade incoming power punches he would be better suited to realize success and dynamic., violent success at that.

At the heart of the issue for Walker is his inability to absorb legitimate light heavyweight striks to his head. Since 2019 Walker has lost six of eleven fights and in all six losses he was knocked unconscious.

Trying to navigate a ‘balsa wood beak’ in today’s light heavyweight division of the UFC is close to an impossible task which is why Walker, who is well equipped in all aspects of mixed martial arts is the sizable underdog he is to this relatively novice athlete Zhang who has but three UFC battles under his belt.

In fact, it is my judgement that Walker’s been placed in this position to serve as ‘patsy’ for Zhang in this fight because Walker’s lack of ability to take a knock to the nose feeds right into Zhang’s strength which is power striking.

In the aforementioned Mingyang Zhang we have a relatively new, developing UFC talent. Zhang is used to being the taller, longer athlete in the cage so for this fight he will have to navigate Walker’s size, length, kicking acumen, experience, and profuse punching power.

Zhang’s a fighter who began to refine his Sanda* fighting style/expertise in a Shaolin Monastery as a youth developing his craft. Eventually he earned a blue belt in BJJ to go with that expertise and today Zhang arrives to this fight the next big, hyped athlete in the UFC from China.

While Zhang is a heavy favorite for this battle, I believe that Walker’s experience, his size, length, and razor-sharp striking style will provide him plenty of opportunity to shine in this fight.

The ultra-athletic Walker, must evade the slow, telegraphed power strikes from Zhang who is nowhere near as nimble afoot or athletic as Walker.  Walker stands in great position to be able to defeat a man much less athletically equip than he, however, should Walker incur one or more power strikes from Zhang, he is liable to crumple to the floor like a dropped bag of sand.

The price screams for me to give Walker a chance in this spot but Walker’s porcelain chin forces me to think twice about backing him.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -300

That total verifies that one man is going to potentially bludgeon the other…. which man Clobber’s and which man gets clobbered I am not certain, but what I am feeling confident about is the Over and more particularly the prop ‘fight starts round 2’ which will be out later this week.

Lone’er Kavanaugh -205 vs. Charles Johnson +180 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Kavanaugh from England is 9-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC. Kavanaugh is short, squat, powerful and well rounded for he can wrestle.

Johnson arrives to China off a loss in his last bout after rattling off four straight UFC wins prior. He has numerous physical advantages in this fight. He is the taller man by five inches; he sports a three-inch reach advantage with both legs and arms. Johnson also owns advantage in level of competition faced and of course UFC experience.

Once the bell for this fight rings the test for Kavanaugh will be to penetrate Johnson’s length/striking to earn his way inside the pocket where he can mute Johnson’s striking prowess while doing damage to the longer taller fighter via his power striking and kicks.

For Johnson, this fight is all about distance and whether he can maintain it appropriately and by all means keep this fight standing so he can execute a plan that entails ‘painting Kavanaugh’s fence’ as the shorter Englishman attempts to work his way inside.

These two men are Flyweight athletes vying in a large cage which often means a decision fight. Proof of that statement is evidenced by this fight’s total which is currently lined 2.5rds Over -335!

That total attests to the fact that this fight will be like watching two wasps warring in a mason jar. At the end of the day, Johnson’s experience, size, and length make the difference here as well he can be captured as an underdog.

Johnson +180

The ‘Bout Business’ Podcast will have all my final releases available sometime Friday before mid-day PT. Remember fight fans this card kicks off in the wee hours of Saturday morning PT so be prepared to enjoy a little OJ with your Omaplata!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

*Sanda is a Chinese form of mixed martial arts that combines kicking, striking, and grappling.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 319 Du Plessis vs. Chimaev: Collar tie on Clark

This week’s event is called UFC 319, and it will be one of five final PPV events for the UFC as in 2026 the platform for UFC events will be Paramount and CBS in essence killing the antiquated PPV model for a much more lucrative opportunity. There is much to comment upon here but that will be saved for another time.

Saturday UFC fight fans will witness a terrifically matched main event of Middleweight stalwarts where champion Dricus Du Plessis a South African faces number three ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler who many regard as the most dangerous athlete on the roster.

The fight card kicks off with early preliminary action at 3pm PT, regular prelims start at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the card drops at 7pm PT.

There are currently thirteen scheduled bouts for this fight slate. Five of those bouts are comprised of men weighing 170lbs. or more so focus on those fights for the higher probability of finishing potential.

There are five fights where the youth advantage is at least six years or greater and two fights between athletes who compete against one another and are at least thirty-seven years old. The geriatric bouts!

Last week my suggested parlay position lost bringing results for this column to 16-18 -.47u for the year.

Let’s get back into the black this week!

Khamzat Chimaev -230 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +195 Champion Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Chimaev is a Russian demolition man decorated with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess. He fights/trains between Sweden and the UAE. Chimaev hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential thus far in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues, inactivity and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division outside of his last victory, a walloping of Robert Whittaker who had been a perennial top five athlete in the division for a decade as well a former champion of the division.

Chimaev’s other two middleweight wins were against Kevin Holland a fighter made for Chimaev, then former middleweight champion Kamaru Usman a welterweight himself who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close majority decision despite taking the bout on very short notice and travelling around the globe to vie against the young Russian. Tlast October’s defeat of former champion Whittaker.

Chimaev, in previous fights, has shown himself to be complete monster in the first two rounds before he begins to wear signs of fatigue. I’m certain he’s addressed the matter but suffice it to say that this champion is a legit hulking middleweight and he will not tire.  Those glimpses of fatigue from Chimaev against undersized foes like Gil Burns and Usman is a contributing factor to how I handicap this battle..

Chimaev faces elite middleweight competition in this fight and a man with drive perseverance and pride. Without question Champion Dricus Du Plessis is a much more dangerous opponent to Chimaev than anyone Chimaev has competed against in battle and in practice.

South African Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, he has an unconventional, awkward, uneven approach to his fighting. He is a massive sized man, he is dynamically strong, has great cardio and is as tough and durable as any fighter on the roster.

What Du Plessis is not is nimble footed, slick, fast, or precise with his striking which favors him in this fight for he’ll not need to call upon any of those skills to best Chimaev as Du Plessis will attack the bully and try to steal his will with aggressive blunt force forward pressure.

Du Plessis lives by the adage that ‘every action has an equal and opposite reaction’ so the Du Plessis plan in any fight but most especially in this one, will be to take the fight directly to Chimaev and execute a pulverization of said adversary until he succumbs.

This is a fight that one must watch from the beginning for Chimaev will look to dominate Du Plessis early with his forceful, smothering, grappling acumen and try to overwhelm him, in essence he’ll attempt to drown the champion with the force of his grappling/wrestling pressure.

For Du Plessis, he has little intention of evading and buying time to take Chimaev deep into this fight rather he wants to overwhelm Chimaev in his own strategy, by attacking him from the opening bell.

Yes, I believe Du Plessis will look to bully the bully for this approach has shown promise in the past against the lesser experienced Chimaev especially after the first five/ten minutes of fighting when fatigue begins to creep in and is able “to make cowards of us all.”

Chimaev has had but one fight since October of 2023 and while he has likely improved his weaponry specifically his cardio capability in the months leading up to this fight, his lack of live octagon work in the last eighteen months must be mentioned.

Meanwhile Du Plessis has faced and earned victory in nine straight UFC bouts, four of them title defenses and against the elite of the MIDDLEWEIGHT division. In the time that Chimaev has had one bout, DDP’s competed in three different title defense fights.

Du Plessis’ fortitude, his size, strength, and experience will all be required in this fight against what many inside the UFC and outside of it regard as a legitimate ‘boogie man.’

I sense that the uber aggression and forward pressure of Du Plessis, provided he is able to navigate this fight into the third round, will eventually drain the energy and will from the front running bully from Beno-Yurt, Chechnya, Russia.

In order to retain his title, Du Plessis must execute the best first ten minutes of fighting since his career started because anything less than that form of effort will find him in the clasp of one of the deadliest submission specialists in the UFC.

Du Plessis +195

This line is slowly rising so use patience and catch the best price possible on DDP.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -125

Carlos Prates -245 vs. Goeff Neal +205 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Texan Neal is an accomplished striker who has power in all appendages. Neal, also a purple belt in BJJ, is currently ranked eleventh in a division full of absolute killers.

Neal arrives hot off a win over Rafael Dos Anjos after having dropped a couple of bouts to legitimate, elite top ten talent in the division in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

In twelfth ranked Carlos Prates we have a chain-smoking Brazilian gangster who is a black belt in BJJ and an ultra-aggressive striker with power.

Several factors force me to regard Prates as most dangerous in this spot. He sports height, reach, and age advantages over Neal, he’s the faster more dynamic athlete despite the fact that he has a heater hanging out of his mouth at all times save for the time he spends fighting in the cage.

Once the bell rings for this fight, we will see too aggressive strikers, both of whom have been defeated by Garry, approach each other with the sole purpose of knocking the other unconscious.

Neal will be the slightly more compact power striker where Prates will be the longer, lengthier, more diversely equipped striker who will employ a forceful leg attack to numb the sound, determined Neal, and take away his movement.

This fight has every indication of being an all-out stand-up battle that fight fans should not miss. At the end of the foray I believe it will be Prates who is able to walk away the victor more than likely via finish.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -165

Edson Barboza -155 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

Brazilian Barboza at thirty-nine moves back up to his original UFC division Lightweight, for this battle of relevance in the UFC.

Klose, his opponent from Phoenix, AZ. is the legitimate lightweight, but he is now thirty-seven himself and enters this key fight off a loss to Joel Alvarez after having won four straight fights in a row.

Both of these men are lethal strikers Klose with heavy hands and more of a direct approach to battle and Barboza with the more diverse striking attack featuring leg numbing kicking acumen.

This fight has finish written all over it but it’s my judgement that it takes one man more than seven minutes thirty seconds to finish the other.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -200

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops at GambLou.com.  There all my final releases for UFC 319 may be accessed.

Thank you for Reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV109 Hernandez vs. Dolidze: The Butcher, the Baker…

 

Last week UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024 when favorites ran above 70%!

As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX where fights are still held in the small twenty-five-foot cage. That mentioned, athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility where the crowds are now slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights prior to the remodel.

This card is schedule for eleven fights, it has only four battles at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above as well there are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater with the most obtuse difference being a SEVENTEEN year between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes and in this case the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.

I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is  in UFC outcomes especially when said youth is complimented with size and length.

Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest itself in every way, shape, and form and in this column weekly we try to expose readers to the nuances of those nuances and advantages.

This LV 109 fight card starts at 1pm PST with the prelims then the main card drops at 4pm PST.

Last week Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world class mixed martial artist.

Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round.

That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now to stack wins together in order to finish this 2025 campaign with enhanced bottom line.

This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on the VSiN digital magazine, the column has realized bottom line profitability in each year since VSiN began and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces fight fans and let’s invest into LV 109!

Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who is able to pivot between both light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.

Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler, his size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level and his striking is power based. Cardio? Well Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in negative fashion.

In this fight Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter fleeter footed athlete. Ideally Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.

Dolidze will/should choose to work the body in order to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful this fight transitions to his favor for he is heavy handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine.

Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event.

His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.

Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically for he overshadows him in significant strike differential, take down ability and take down defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early ten minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first ten minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.

Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism of cardio ability of Hernandez.

At the end of the day Hernandez’ diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which Hernandez wins this bout. I believe a late round finish either ground and pound or submission is in the cards for this fight.

Total in this fight is 3.5Rds. Under -115

Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili Featherweight +195 (145lbs.)

Andre ‘Toucy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some twelve years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.

Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire and at the ripe fighting age of thirty-five, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.

Fili will be the taller athlete in this matchup as well, the longer, fighter which he is used to. However, Fili’s height once a great advantage to him when younger actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion has regressed and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.

In Chistian Rodriguez we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick, he has great feet which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.

Rodriguez’ last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.

While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years the younger fresher fighter force me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.

This week’s investment: A parlay

Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320

1.15u to earn 1.02u

Total in this bout stands 2.5Rds Over -220

Rodriguez is NOT overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO so tread carefully with this total.

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 318 Poirier vs. Holloway for the BMF Championship

New Orleans, LA. Is the location for this week’s UFC 318, a PPV event featuring fourteen bouts with early preliminary action beginning 3:15pm PT, prelims kick at 5pm PT then the PPV portion of the event drops at 7pm PT.

A large thirty-foot octagon and a house full of overserved swamp rats will cheer for the local athletes of which Dustin Poirier is but two Louisiana natives on the card.

Of the fourteen fights, nine take place at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above and of those nine, eight are placed in the prelims of this card so violence begins early and runs throughout the slate!

Again this week we have some ‘mature’ athletes hitting the cage. The UFC is offering us seven bouts where the age difference exceeds five years.

As discussed last week, the fact that younger athletes particularly in matchups where they are also taller and have limb reach over the opponent hold abnormal advantage especially if the fight plays out to be waged on the feet.

Last week eight of nine younger fighters facing older competitors earned victory with the only exception being Derrick Lewis, who arrived with experience and level of competition faced advantage.

It pays to undertake the appropriate due diligence when assessing these bouts.

The Favorite/Dog count for last week was 8-4 making favorites in 2025 65.2%.

Let’s Fight!

Dustin Poirier +105 vs. Max Holloway -125 Lightweight (155lbs) main event

Trilogy fight

This fight is for the ‘BMF’ title that the UFC created some years ago. Further, this fight is the third between these two men with Poirier, a Louisiana native having won the first two bouts, the first in dominant fashion when Max debuted in the UFC and took the fight on oh so short notice, and the second, for the lightweight title in 2019 when Poirier won in a close decision.

Poirier opened -150 for this fight, but he has now been bet into the underdog position while money has come in on his opponent. Many fight investors are wary when athletes announce retirement BEFORE a fight, and I believe this has much to do with the line movement in this fight.

Poirier is a black belt in BJJ with dynamic boxing credentials, he is the former lightweight interim champion who has competed against the elite of this division for several years.

Poirier will be the older athlete, the shorter athlete, and the athlete with a deficit in arm/leg reach which together and with the retirement announcement help explain why this line has been ebbing toward Holloway.

Poirier packs profuse power in his strikes/kicks, he is a formidable wrestler and has great durability and cardio. He takes this challenge after realizing a 1-2 record over the last couple of years losing to Justin Gaethje via finish as well Islam Makhachev in the same manner.

Poirier is a pressure fighter will look to force Holloway backwards in this fight, keep him on his heels and attack the longer, taller man with the formidable power of his striking/kicking.

It is inside the pocket, pressed against the fence and in toe-to-toe confrontation that Poirier will hold his greatest advantage for his strength and unrelenting forward pressure factor favorably for him.

Max Holloway the current ‘BMF’ title holder gives the Louisianan Poirier, a former BMF titleholder the opportunity to retire with that BMF belt but make little mistake, Holloway is not doing this for Poirier, rather he’s doing this to destroy Poirier in this third fight and ride off with a win, the BMF belt and a future championship bout in this lightweight division.

Holloway, thirty-three, has fully evolved into the lightweight frame, and he retains his snap, quickness, and his fleet-footed ability all while enhancing the power/effectiveness of his strikes.

Holloway, except for his last battle against Topuria, has been able to evade incoming power punches and land counters off the aggression of opponents then attack once the incoming opponent is harmed.

Holloway’s height, reach and length (arms/legs) position him advantageously in this brawl …. while it remains standing.

Holloway’s significant strike differential per five minutes of fight time stands at +2.4 while Poirier’s ratio stands +.97 significant strikes landed per round. What this highlights is the activity and volume of Max while also displaying the lower volume higher impact/power of Poirier.

Once the bell for round one rings, I expect each man to begin to try to systematically beat the other man down. These men have a total of six rounds against each other in prior competition, so I envision few surprises, few new twists, rather I envision two proud, stubborn warriors each hunting to incapacitate the other.

Poirier has the more daunting task because when these two last tangled Poirier was thirty-one while max was twenty-eight, now thirty-six and on the shelf since June of last year, Poirier prepares for a final confrontation that will take his best effort to win.

Holloway does not enter this battle unscathed! He arrives off a devastating KO at the hands of Ilya Topuria last year in October, so each man enters this battle off a damaging loss.

Two forceful, proud, world class fighters who are as capable mentally as they are physically, men who are intimately familiar with each other will meet in the middle of a thirty-foot cage this Saturday in New Orleans to determine which warrior walks out of the cage with the BMF belt.

In my estimation this is an ultimate competition and one that may not make it to the final bell!

What more could we ask for in a main event?

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -140

Roman Kopylov -250 vs. Paolo Costa +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main

Roman Kopylov, fourteenth ranked in the division is a Russian striker with deep background in combat sambo. Kopylov arrives at this fight having earned victory in his last two in a row pushing his UFC tally to 6-3.

His loss two fights back was to legitimate top ten middleweight Fluffy Hernandez is the only thing preventing Kopylov from entering the top ten of this division.

In this fight, he enters with a slight reach advantage and a negligible significant strike differential. Yes, Kopylov accepts just as many significant strikes as he unleashes.

Kopylov is versed in wrestling/grappling but utilizes that skill only when needed because he prefers to use his height and reach to deploy his striking offense on opponents.

Thirteenth ranked Brazilian hotwire Paolo Costa has a size/athletic advantage over Kopylov in this fight besides being the more explosive combatant. Costa is the more experienced fighter because he has competed against numerous top ranked adversaries.

The brazen Brazilian is a paltry 1-4 in his last several UFC competitions albeit against elite competition within the division. Costa’s performances sway between confounding and impressive based upon nothing that I have been able to detect or handicap.

Costa is a true pariah.

When mentally/physically prepared to fight for a full three rounds Costa may be regarded as a legitimate top ten talent in the division.

The issue with Costa is his lack of appropriate mental preparation, his flakey focus and his fleeting fortitude for Costa enjoys all aspects of life that tend to corrode elite fighting talent.

What he has shown a propensity to detest are stringent training, mental discipline, and innate confidence.

What is certain is that Kopylov enters this fight prepared to do anything he can to steal Costa’s reputation and ranking.

What is not certain (in this or any other battle for that matter) is the mental condition and physical conditioning of Costa entering this fight.

For this reason I will choose to watch this bout because there is no way to trust the approach in this or any fight from Paolo Costa.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -200

That total indicates Costa competence…. something I am unwilling to invest in.

Dan Ige -175 vs. Patricio ‘Pitbull’ Freire +145 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Freire, ‘Pitbull’ as he is nicknamed, is a thirty-eight year old legend of mixed martial arts who never had the chance to compete in the UFC until his last fight where they presented him a taller, longer, younger, ranked opponent in number three ranked featherweight Yair Rodriguez who made Pitbull look his age in a unanimous decision loss.

Now Pitbull turns it around just twelve weeks after that one-sided decision loss to Rodriguez.

Pitbull is a warrior and if given the chance to compete in the UFC six years ago he would have been able to display his world-class talent and without doubt would have competed for a title. But at this age, and after the attrition he has incurred from a lifetime of mixed martial arts his skills are waning, his reaction time is slowing and his ability to navigate in front of larger, younger men is waning.

Pitbull’s opponent for this bout is none other than eleventh ranked Dan Ige who notably took the fight last summer against Diego Lopes on hours’ notice and fought an excellent fight in losing a decision.

Ige is afforded advantage in this fight that he rarely realizes in that he is five years the younger fighter, he is an inch the taller man and he holds a six-inch reach advantage.

Add to that the fact that Ige’s been set back each time he fights an elite top ten talent and we have the recipe for a focused driven Dan Ige here who is prepared to utilize his physical advantages as well as his youth and quickness to further expose the proud aged Pitbull in a fight that I see going to decision.

Ige -175 is the favorite in this fight, and I must say that this price is very affordable given the dynamics of this fight.

Ige -175*

*I’ll use Ige -175 as the first leg of a parlay and pair him with a fighter from next week’s slate, D’Mon Blackshear -258 who battles England’s Davey Grant at UFC Abu Dhabi

This one-unit investment returns 1.19u

Total in this fight 2.5Rds over -280

Friday mid-day the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off a 5-0 weekend last week so join me at GambLou.com to access this week’s UFC 318 releases!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Nashville: Insane in ‘the Train’

This week the UFC takes us to good Ol’ Rocky Top Nashville, Tennessee where a scheduled twelve bout fight card, a large cage, and a room full of tuned up Tennesseans will gather to take in what I believe will be one of the most violent cards of the year.

I say this based on a couple of factors.

First, seven of the twelve scheduled bouts are going to be waged at 170lbs and above where power is abundant and finish rates reflect it.

Second, twelve of the twenty-four athletes on this slate are at least thirty-three years old as well this card features nine fights where there exists a greater than 5-year age gap between competitors.

Fighters competing against one another under a four year or better youth advantage win 59.5% of the time according to the information Reed Kuhn has published in his book Fightnomics.

In these nine bouts Saturday the age difference is not just a year or two…. In the main event there is a 15-year spread, co-main you ask? Fourteen years variance. Those are the most obtuse of the nine matchups but suffice it to say many athletes on this slate enter the cage with numeric advantage.

To date favorites in the UFC stand 65.2% which is on the high end of yearly UFC averages… Let us hope UFC 317’s 9-1-1- result is not reproduced in Nashville for my bankroll cannot take that.

Last week we won with Beniel Dariush as he was simply the better mixed martial artist.

Tallison Teixeira -280 vs. Derrick Lewis +240 Heavyweight main event

Lewis is the all-time knockout king in UFC history.

Now forty years old, Lewis is a rotund athlete with little technical fighting ability. He does possess profuse power in his hands, and he compliments that fight ending power with focused ill intent.

He has competed against the elite of the division for better than a decade and separated the majority of his foes from consciousness because for Lewis, it takes but one Sunday shot to end a fight.

Lewis’s UFC experience, cage IQ and raw street fighting tactics are equaled only by his complete lack of appropriate conditioning for the man is fractionally as effective after six minutes of exertion than before.

Lewis lands the same rate of significant strikes per minute as he accepts, 2.48, and of late his ability to take damage after all these fierce competitions is waning rapidly. Yes, Lewis is chinny.

However, at his best and that is how I believe we see Lewis Saturday, he is an effective finisher. The key for Lewis in this fight will be space for should he be able to work from inside the pocket on the longer taller Brazilian then he stands a great chance of imploding Teixeira with any one of several detonations.

For Tallison Teixeira this will be his sophomore fight in the UFC so disadvantages in experience, foes faced, and adversity overcome cannot compete with what Lewis has experienced.

This Brazilian bomber holds many advantages as he is fifteen years the younger man, he is four inches taller and owns a four-inch reach advantage over Lewis in this bout.

Teixeira brings raw finishing ability applied by a youthful, hulking, aggressive, sometime wild strike hurling twenty-five-year-old, but the kid ends fights.

In his second UFC bout he gets a main event placement, steps well up in class of opponent and fights for the opportunity to earn life-changing money, all of which add complexity to this fight.

Lewis is taking note of it all.

So, in one corner we have a mature, experienced, proud old warrior combatant with natural born power. He is going to take the middle of the cage and in initiate a throw down against a willing, aggressive, young, taller, longer, Brazilian Bomber who will do all he can to unglue Lewis.

There is no give in this fight.

The total in this fight of 1.5 -270 Under is appropriate!

Morgan Charriere 250 vs. Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr +200 Featherweight

WAR

Nate ‘the Train’ is appropriately named. Landwehr is forcefully aggressive in every engagement during his fights. He forges forward with unrelenting will to engage opponents with one single point of focus: to annihilate.

Landwehr now thirty-seven and sporting a lightly negative significant strike differential can struggle with consistency because of the extremely aggressive approach he takes into each battle.

Take one to give one? Landwehr’s surely game.

Landwehr can grapple yes but his aim is to walk opponents down then shut off their lights simply put.

4-2 in his last six bouts, Landwehr enters this fight off a loss but for this war, he competes in front of his hometown which makes Landwehr, a problem for any athlete in any arena, even more dangerous in this spot.

Landwehr’s opponent is perfectly placed to provide the fans a dangerous opponent for their hometown boy.

Charriere is athletic, fleet afoot, able to effectively evade strikes and throws his kicks/strikes/knees and elbows in volume and from every angle imaginable.

Charriere enters this fight in enemy territory off a loss to Nathaniel Wood that was very close and could have easily gone his way. Sporting a negative strike differential, Charriere would do well to maintain spacing against this down bound train because while Charriere’s damage is done with volume striking, distance maintenance and precision placement, the Train’s damage comes in blunt force collision form.

Simply put Charriere will need time to effectively wear Landwehr down with a volume, precision attack while Landwehr’s approach will be to force Charriere into a flat-footed throwdown where Landwehr’s shortcomings of footwork, quickness and cage cutting become muted and his strengths of power striking from the pocket are magnified.

Every fight on this card is designed to deliver violent effects but of the twelve fights slated for Nashville, this one offers the greatest intrigue because of the style each man carries to the cage.

In the end, Charriere will be too fleet afoot, too quick, and athletic for the forceful Train even though Landwehr fights in front of his people.

Charriere -250

We will use Charriere in a parlay

Steve Garcia -120 vs. Calvin Katter -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

This will be another complete blood bath as both men are lethal strikers and they execute their striking similarly, with force, power, grit, and determination.

This fight is foundational for Kattar, a blue belt in BBJ as he has dropped his last four bouts in a row but to world class competent UFC competition.

Katter is tough, aggressive and a forward pressing boxer/striker with power in his hands, a granite jaw but porous defense as evidenced by his negative 2.02 significant strike difference per five minutes of fight time.

Garcia, a southpaw enters with tremendous momentum. A striker as well Garcia has not seen the third round in his last four fights finishing competition that is sound but nowhere near as elite as the athletes Kattar has had to contend with.

So, Kattar enters fight one desperate hombre and Garcia, the lefty arrives on the shirttails of tremendous momentum. Garcia’s height, reach, and length advantages will set him up well in this striking affair. Garcia’s southpaw attack will serve him well against the traditional orthodox boxer Kattar.

Garcia -120

Garcia -120 to Charriere -250 parlay returns 1.57u

This fight is lined 1.5 -175 Over

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning PST. All my final releases may be accessed there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Atlanta Usman vs. Buckley: Rose expose’d?

The UFC marches through the summer of twenty-five with events lined up for weeks without having to revisit the APEX as the UFC is in the midst of expanding that facility.

From New Jersey they move to Atlanta, GA for Fight Night Usman vs. Buckley, a Welterweight main event. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and the main card at 7pm PT.

Atlanta will provide these combatants with a full house crowd looking to slam suds and view violence.

Seven of the thirteen bouts feature the larger men weighing 170lbs and above, so the UFC has allocated an abundance size and power to this event. They will fight in the large cage which favors more athletic, fleet-footed, nimble fighters as opposed to the engagers who need to close distance, clasp, and wrestle.

This fight card is comprised of US and Canadien athletes with a stray Scot, Frenchman, Peruvian and one or two other foreigners scattered within.

Kamaru Usman +210 vs. Joaquin Buckley -245 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked welterweight Buckley arrives at this fight with great momentum and trajectory.

Fifth ranked welterweight Joaquin Buckley is thirty-one, he is dangerously explosive, driven to compete for a title and he has the benefit of fighting remarkably close to home.

A winner of his last six bouts, Buckley, has not tasted defeat since late 2022.

Buckley is short, compact but profusely powerful with his striking and he hits the octagon with a complete fight arsenal founded on an established wrestling base, forward pressing aggression, and heart.

Usman, on paper, represents a significant step up in pedigree of foe for Buckley but at thirty-eight and having to compete on knee’s that have been MMA active for decades with wrestling prior to that, it’s safe to say that Usman’s now a shell of a fighter now that he was just two to three years ago.

Buckley’s fight game is power based, yet he realizes a +1.09 significant strike differential per five minutes which means there is high output behind that high voltage power. He is active with takedowns averaging just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes and finally Buckley’s takedown defense is 73% which is testimony to his short hard physique and his deep ability to defend a takedown.

Usman, a decorated DII college wrestler and a BJJ black belt needs little introduction. The former champion remains a forceful wrestler, a solid striker, and an accomplished force inside the octagon but in my judgement Usman’s utility inside the top fifteen of this division will be wiped away with a loss in this fight.

He enters after having dropped his last three bouts (two against the timid Leon Edwards and one against the inconsistent Kamzat Chimaev). In that Chimaev fight, Usman looked formidable, he showed his durability, but he was also slow and laboring in a three round decision defeat to the younger faster Russian.

Usman’s mind is as sharp and powerful as ever; however, his body has been tattered from years of world class competition, especially his knee’s.

Usman’s striking remains effective, and his wrestling is sound but his explosion, his ability to move fluently, and his strike defense have all shown signs of waning.

It will be an arduous task for Usman, proud old warrior that he is to remain competitive in this fight with such a massive difference in age, speed, and quickness between these two.

Usman’s knee situation is real, it is tangible, and it mutes his ability to be as effective as he was in the prime of his career.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -130

Rose Namajunas -260 vs. Miranda Maverick +220 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main

Eleventh ranked Maverick, a black belt in BJJ with a formidable wrestling base has earned victory over her last five straight bouts. The level of competition faced in those fights has steadily ascended into this sizable test as she now faces former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.

Namajunas with black belts in Karate and Tae Kwon Do and a brown belt in BJJ surely has the fight arsenal to make her a threat in this division. Rose carries name recognition, she is a former UFC champion and she brings an extremely well-rounded fighting repertoire to face a shorter stockier adversary in Maverick.

Maverick is a southpaw and though she is shorter than Rose she is also five years younger and fighting at her natural weight class where Rose has had to rise into the flyweight division because she is no longer able to make 116 pounds for strawweight and retain any energy.

Rose’s results at 125lbs. have been acceptable as she has been able to defeat Amanda Riibas and journey woman Tracy Cortrez but lost flyweight bouts to both Manion Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield.

While Namajunas has the pedigree and name recognition, I believe this Maverick test will be a difficult one for her because Maverick’s forward wrestling pressure, her aggression and her physicality will force Rose to engage and defend where ideally she wants to dwell in space and snap strikes at her incoming aggressor.

This fight is total 2.5Rds Over -520!

Maverick +220 half unit

I will also release Maverick via decision (lines not out yet) for a half unit and Maverick plus points (lines not yet out) for another half unit.

Three wagers on this bout!

I will update this article once those prices become available to the market.

Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)

Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for this, his third UFC battle after their originally scheduled bout was cancelled (May 17th) due to a Bellato illness (for lack of a better description).

When this fight was cancelled, Bellato was priced -550, now, inside a month later the fight reopened it is lined Bellato -360?

Bellato is a chiseled, heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.

Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted …. rapidly.

Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue for the power striking Brazilian is that on offense he is able but defensively he is flawed. Bellato allows 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition which leave an abundance of room for improvement!

In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev. Submissions are craigs game and striking department he is mundane at best so the opportunity to wear on the big Brazilian to ty to KO him late is remote.

Craig, a large man himself has a body type that falls more under ‘dadbod’ than ‘sculpted’ or ‘chiseled.’ His striking is lacking for mixed martial artists of this level, but it is his grappling/submission ability that has allowed Craig to compete deep into this division and onto this fight Saturday.

Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig early in this fight while these men are standing.

For Craig, should he be able to make it past the first round then ground the Bear sized Brazilian, he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker as Bellato swells up early from his torrid pace as well he is as uncomfortable on the mat as Craig is on the feet!

Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?

I lean to Craig.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 (when this fight was taken down a few weeks ago, this total was 1.5Rds Under -135)

Friday early morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast becomes available at GambLou.com. My final positions can be accessed there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley The Rematch: Rage against ‘The Machine’

This week UFC 316, a PPV event hits Newark, New Jersey for Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley II the rematch.

The event will be held in the Prudential Center which is situated in the most notoriously corrupt fight commission of all fifty states, Jersey. If one  is of the feeling that UFC judging can at times be difficult to figure, then prepare yourselves for New Jersey. You have been warned!

The large cage and a well lubricated Jersey crowd will greet these fighters. There are scheduled thirteen bouts as of this review with five fights at 170lbs and above where the finish rates are highest. This card is a heavy populated by American fighters but there are athletes arriving from China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Moldova to name a few.

This year underdogs jumped out in the early months but since we have seen heavy favorite results.

To date Favorites in the UFC: 127-64-7 64.1% which is about par for most UFC years….

2025 results: 11-14 -3.65u

Merab Dvalishvili -300 vs. Suga’ Sean O’Malley +250 Men’s Bantamweight (135lbs) title

Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks.

Last fall O’Malley, not fully healthy, lost a decision to Dvalishvili where several things were revealed though that competition.

First, that O’Malley may have overestimated his ability to defend a Dvalishvili takedown. Second, that the Dvalishvili fight IQ was absolutely not on the same level at all with his cardio, wrestling takedowns or will.

O’Malley since that defeat last September has removed himself from the public spotlight to concentrate on attempting to wrest his title away from a fighter in Dvalishvili that must begin to be considered a top three Bantamweight of all time!

For O’Malley to recapture the title he will have had to evolve/improve in mixed martial arts repertoire mentally but as importantly physically.

O’Malley strengths are his speed, precision striking ability and athletic movement, but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize. Make no mistake about the fact that he understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and has been attempting to address this shortcoming years ago but with a much more fervent effort these last six months.

Those who claim O’Malley is not nor ever will be the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is, are correct, further, most pundits including myself struggle to believe that the takedown defense needed to fend of ‘the machine’ may not be appropriately developed or refined in a several month period.

That said, as mentioned above O’Malley’s been preparing for this challenge for years and there will be no excuses if Merab is able to chain lighting takedown the slim striker on his way to another efficient victory.

O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last several years will need to be put into much better practice in this rematch.

O’Malley Coach Tim Welch and the fighter fully understand how critical distance control and take down defense will be in this battle especially after being in the cage with Merab.

They now understand the depth of Dvalishvili’s strength, cardio and most especially his will and that the sawed off Dagestani phenom cannot be underestimated.

Dvalishvili is simply an unrelenting chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing the effects of tiring. However, in this rematch he gives away physical advantages in age, height and reach besides precision striking, kicking and overall athletic ability to the former champion O’Malley.

Dvalishvili’s best weaponry in any fight is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure and his deeply seeded belief in his ability to wear any opponent out (See Merab’s last bout against Umar Nurmagomedov for that hard proof).

The Dagestani system/culture of mixed martial arts and the tight clan Dvalishvili trains with compete by not allowing opponents to breathe, think or react because they are constantly fending their pursuer off.

Pressing forward unrelentingly to engage, smother then defeat the opponent is bread into the Dagestani men from birth.

O’Malley’s plans must revolve around setting Merab up for flush fists and knees to the face by moving to create striking angles from a safe distance. O’Malley’s going to have to keep this fight on the feet then by all means available to him, evade the raging bull to maintain the spacing he needs to daze Dvalishvili.

Where O’Malley requires space to flow, Dvalishvili prefers to be affixed to his opponent in strait jacket form so he may force his adversary to spend so much energy defending the takedown, that they are sucked dry when they finally earn some space. Once in said space the challenge is to land strikes on the incoming opponent before getting tied up, pushed to the fence, or forced to the floor.

The Dagestani style of pressure wrestling simply forces opponents to exhaust all their energy defending the attack, from there the fight transitions to the best conditioned athlete.

Now a final point.

We saw Dvalishvili defeat O’Malley last fall, we also saw Merab clown around and take the final round off. I have seen Merab dive headfirst into a frozen lake and hurt himself, it is on tape.

While cardio, wrestling and recent momentum surely ride with Dvalishvili, youth, reach, height and especially fight IQ do not. Those fighting advantages belong to O’Malley.

Let us not forget O’Malley won a couple rounds in that last battle and he was competing with a damaged labrum and little understanding of the actual force of Dvalishvili pressure.

Should Dvalishvili take O’Malley lightly in any manner, or should he err in fight strategy by believing he can simply run through the former champion then Merab could find himself looking up at the lights.

It is my judgement that O’Malley’s going to give us his best fighting performance to date. Will that effort be enough to earn his title back?

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -285

Kayla Harrison -650 vs. Julianna Pena +500 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Title

Harrison is an Olympic gold medal winner in Judo, twice; she has trained with the male Dagestani fighters as habit and simply put she is a physical freak. Harrison competed some fifteen to twenty pounds higher than the 135 lbs, she will need to be able to make 135lbs. on the nose come Friday morning. This is no small detail and will be watched closely by yours truly.

Harrison is large, talented, and tough but she has show little ability to finish well rounded elite mixed martial artists which is what I do consider Pena to be.

Former champion Pena is a junk yard dog of a mixed martial artist. She is mean, well-conditioned and tough as a three-dollar steak. Brought up with kickboxing and supplemented with a purple belt in BJJ, Pena uses intelligence, experience, guile, and her downright nasty nature to eventually overwhelm opponents.

Should Harrison have a difficult cut and even if she does not, I do not believe we can simply overlook Pena’s ability to win this fight.

In my judgement there is well better than a 13.2% chance for Pena to win this fight based on the odds of Harrison -650.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -160

This Under opened -180 and I do agree with the lean from the market to the over in this bout.

Over 4.5Rds -160

See below parlay to the next bout…

Kevin Holland -265 vs. Vicente Luque +235 Welterweight (170lbs)

Feet fight!

This fight comes down to the feet, simply put.

In Vicente Luque we have a proud Brazilian warrior who has been competing against the elite in the welterweight division for the last decade.

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva empower Luque to walk straight into the heat of battle understanding that should any opponent decide to plant and trade with him, his might and his power striking and his granite chin will earn him victory.

Luque struggles occur when he must move fluently to evade trouble or cut the cage off to initiate it. Luque’s a simple power striker designed to meet in the middle of the cage then ‘throw down.’

In Kevin Holland we get one of the most nimble, athletic mixed martial artists in the division. Holland’s a second-degree black belt in Kung Fu with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

In any fight, Holland is fluid, flashy, brash and a constant talker when he is dancing in space and peppering opponents with strikes from every appendage and angle.

In this fight he will be the younger fighter, the taller athlete by four inches and he will possess a six-inch reach advantage, all terrific advantages for a fight that is to take place standing.

Holland understands exactly how to apply his trade onto fighters who are unable to catch up to his fluidity of movement and effectively cut off the cage against him.

Holland’s trouble comes against heavy forceful grapplers/wrestlers who can clasp onto him, negate his ability to dance, drag him to the floor then dominate him.

Luque will find it extremely difficult to catch up with the more adroit, evasive, athletic, trash-talking Holland and as his frustration grows so too will Holland’s effectiveness from distance.

Holland -265 to Over 4.5 -160 Harrison/Pena 1u returns 1.24u

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC 316 there.

GambLou.com

Its Business!