GambLou 2023 Profitability report; NFL Championship opening lines

This week the AFC and NFC Championships will be contested. As we close down the end of the NFL year let’s take a look at opening lines for these games and review profitability.

At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas: Baltimore opened -3.5ev with a total of 45.5 while in San Francisco, the 49ers came -7 and 52.

These prices may not move too much for numerous reasons this week however I will be tracking the line movement for any opportunities. 2023 NFL Clients stand 61 and 61, +2.94units representing a 2%ROI

Future wagers released at the beginning of the season that have NOT been recorded yet:

Chiefs Under 11.5 season wins +120; 1.5unit W

Chiefs Under 10.5 season wins +220; .5unit L

Washington Over 6.5 wins +100 1unit L

Houston to win AFC South +220 .35unit W

Houston to win AFC 20/1 .15unit L

Baltimore to win AFC +375 .5unit pending

I’ll invest into the Championship round then into the Super Bowl.

Beating the NFL is no easy task but with the Ravens position pending and a strong Championship performance I look to enhance profitability for myself and all clients.


As January ends my focus becomes exclusively UFC profitability while NHL Stanley Cup Due Diligence is in full swing.

Last year NHL profitability: 55-46 +25.20units for a 29% ROI

After two UFC events in 2024 GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast Members are 3-5 +.23units for 4%ROI with 3 favorites in upcoming cards earning members Plus money (Yes, that’s correct) and two releases holding positive value based on the pricing today. I’m playing a different game than the hordes making ‘picks’ and selling their swag.

At Investing on select sporting events is strictly Business!


Profitable Sports Gaming

Money Morning Profitability report:

Entering October ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 80-81  +22.58u 14% ROI (+129)

The next fight card is October 7th.



Look for the ‘Bout Business, Sneak Teep Podcast, a weekly opening line report for UFC cards to begin Tuesday October 31st. Scary!

UFC Money Morning report: blanked!

GambLou weekly UFC profitability took a step backwards last week as I realized a 0-4 -3.5unit evening Saturday in the UFC.

While it’s never easy to report loss, it’s part of the landscape of running a successful business and besides I’ve had so few losing nights thus year that this is easy to account for. I did after all use only a half unit on Christo Giagos which saved us a half a unit.

Rarely do I sweep a UFC board and rarely will I get blanked, each has occurred in the last four weeks which is funny. I would expect it to be some time before wither happen again… I presume.

NFL is now 2 weeks into the season so I’ll begin to post mid-week observations and rants pertaining to NFL starting this week.

UFC 2023: 77-78 +22.80u 15%ROI (+130)


Profitable Sports Gaming

UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley: Drowned Sugar?

UFC 292 takes place this week from Boston, MA. The thirteen-bout fight card is rife with competitive matchups and it features two, five round world championship title bouts.

Last week favorites realized a 9-4 result making favorites on the year: 194-99-14 or 63% which is about average for a typical UFC year. Last year’s 67.5% favorite result appears to be just an outlier.

Aljamain Sterling -260 vs. Sean O’Malley +210 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

There are layers to this bout but whittled down to its most common denominator what we have here in Sterling is an elite all world grappler/wrestler who is an effective striker, he’s massive for the division and with his size comes incredible strength supplemented by cardio that is seemingly unending.

Sterling’s one of the most lethal bantamweight fighters in UFC history. He’s been in with the absolute elite of the division and has cleaned them all, he’s extremely intelligent, focused and he arrives swelling with confidence based on who he has defeated and who he is facing Saturday.

In second ranked O’Malley we have a long, tall athlete who effectively controls space/distance by utilizing his athleticism and fluidity of movement. O’Malley will be the younger, longer, quicker athlete in the cage Saturday.

Once this fight begins O’Malley’s unique fighting style will be on display. He’ll flow and parry to create striking angles. His use of unorthodox timing to try to stun, surprise and bewilder the incoming Sterling with straight strikes and kicks.

O’Malley’s a more singularly versed mixed martial artist despite the fact that he’s trained extensively on his take down defense and ability to get back to his feet.

O’Malley acknowledges openly that his priority in this bout is to absolutely NOT allow Sterling to clasp onto him, press him against the fence and by all means O’Malley is aware that he must not allow Sterling to drag this fight to the canvas.

If and when he does find himself there, he must be able to return to his feet or this will be a short night.

For Sterling, he will want to take this fight right to O’Malley and in measured, steady, aggressive fashion muscle him backwards and force him to exert his energy defending and evading as opposed to flowing and striking.

The Sterling camp believes that as the fight wears on, O’Malley, who has never been five full rounds and in fact has had cardio issues late in three round bouts, will begin to wane and as he does, Sterling will begin to press more.

Sterling’s focus is to systematically usurp the energy from O’Malley then in the late third or championship rounds when the kid is gassed and gored, find a way to take his back then choke him into unconsciousness.

O’Malley’s camp realizes (rightfully so) that Sterling cuts massive amounts of weight to make 135lbs. Further, they in conjunction with the UFC cooked up the idea that this fight should take place immediately on the heels of Sterling’s dominant title defense against Henry Cejudo in June!

Sterling and camp feel pressured into the very quick turn around here and have stated that the result of this will be that he’ll take it out on O’Malley who Sterling states is in this position only because of his ‘Dana privilege’.

Privileged or not, these two tussle Saturday and without question the weigh-ins are of ultra-importance in this one so I’ll hold off until later this week to make any position on this bout.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -165

Points: Sterling -5.5 -130

Zhang Weili -310 vs. Amanda Lemos +250 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.) title

Champion Zhang won the title back in her last fight against then champion Carla Esparza. In this her second stint as champion it’s my belief that it will take something quite impressive to defeat her.

Zhang may be the most complete, fully equipped mixed martial artist in the organization. She’s intelligent, a workaholic who lives in the gym. She’s strong as an ox, fast as lightning and tough as a six-dollar steak.

In Brazilian Lemos we have an effective power striker who is forward pressing, aggressive and offensive. Eleven of her thirteen wins have been via the finish because she’ able to keep fights standing. Her take down defense is formidable based on the incredible power in her torso and legs. This allows Lemos to keep fights on the feet where her ferocity, might and power translate into advantage, finishing advantage.

When this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch how Zhang decides to usurp some of the zip from Lemos. Does she do that by counter striking, does she try to wrestle her up?

Either way it’s my judgement that Lemos has about six and a half to seven minutes of fight ending threat in her and it’s in these first minutes that Zhang must be wary and respect.

For Zhang, she needs to ensure that she takes this bout into the second round and beyond for even Zhang with her granite jaw has been slept and a fresh firing Lemos can put anyone in the division’s lights out with one elbow, kick or fist.

Zhang’s ability to use her fight intelligence, employ her full fight arsenal supplemented by her extreme athleticism must be used together to force Lemos to effort early in this fight so that Zhang can go offensive on the Brazilian finisher later as she begins to slow.

Provided Zhang does not run into something early I handicap this bout to be styled much to her favor and I look for Zhang to eventually finish the brazen Brazilian brute.

Zhang via finish -120 (DraftKings)

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Under -175 after opening -140

Points: Zhang -5.5 -195

This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday AM across all pod platforms. My final UFC 292 releases can be accessed there!

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading


Profitable Sports Gaming 

UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje II: Diamond in the tough

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday early PM PT.

This article was originally published on VSiN’s digital magazine 7/26

Salt Lake City, UT hosts this week’s UFC 217 where fight fans will witness a much-anticipated rematch in the lightweight division where second ranked Dustin Poirier faces third ranked Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ belt. Whether for a mythological belt, the lightweight championship or a backyard melee, all these two require to face one another in an epic rematch is time and place.

Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125 Middleweight (155lbs.) main event

I was fortunate enough to be live at the first bout between these two in Phoenix 2018 when Poirier, who’d had his legs bludgeoned by the unrelenting forward striking pressure of Gaethje, ultimately ignored his injuries, persevered and finished Gaethje in the fourth in an ultra-impressive display of guts and grind.

What Gaethje took from that experience is what many did in that he realized then that his ‘go for broke’ fight style, though entertaining for fans had to be refined and a true fight plan had to be installed if he had any aspirations of taking the title for this division.

Attributes such as footwork, patience, strike defense and levelheadedness are required improvement areas to instill into Gaethje’s warrior mentality.

Trevor Wittman of team Elevation in Colorado has worked with Gaethje on his mental approach, especially his fight IQ once he finds himself in the blistering heat of the fight. This has been their focus since the first Poirier bout.

In Gaethje’s last fight we saw great evolution as we witnessed him systematically take apart a very accomplished, future lightweight elite in Rafael Fiziev. In that fight Gaethje displayed his fight evolution for he came with a plan, executed said plan, then allowed his raw aggression to put an exclamation on his systematic yet aggressive attack.

Gaethje believes that Poirier will step into the cage Saturday with a foe that is nowhere near the fighter or man he fought in 2018 and to an extent I believe that to be true.

For Poirier there only positivity. Aside from losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov which Poirier has moved beyond; he’s had his hand has raised in his last nine competitions. He’s a refined, precise, striker who is versed in grappling, has cardio for ten rounds, features a granite chin and is as determined as any athlete in the organization.

Poirier’s precision, athleticism, fight IQ and experience against the absolute elite in the division make him THE threat to the title in my opinion should he get his hand raised here.

A clarifying way to look at these maniacs is by their numbers.

Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and only allows 4.25 for a +1.26 ratio. He averages 1.4 take downs per fight and he defends 63% of takedown attempts.

A well-rounded approach.

Gaethje’s numbers are more reflective of the reckless, aggressive Gaethje as his successful significant strikes are a whopping 7.38 but the significant strikes he receives is 7.66 for a negative .28 ratio. He attempts few to no take down attempts in his bouts though he’s got a solid wrestling base and defends 53% of takedowns.

A singularly dimensioned approach.

Both men, after losing to Oliveira had impressive victories to set them up for this fight which essentially props the winner into a final run at a title fight while the loser will have a long road back to contention realizing that each combatant is thirty-four.

It’s Poirier’s more diverse fight ability, his logic, calm demeanor and ability to remain on plan against the ‘natural born brawler’ in Gaethje who is claiming to be more patient and ‘Poirier-like’ in his approach.

My question, does that all change once Poirier pastes Gaethje with a two-piece to the teeth?

This fight opened Poirier -125

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -130

This total surprised me based on the fact that these two went a ferocious four plus rounds in their first fight.

Each man seems to be entering this fight more dangerous as mixed martial artists than when they first fought despite the five-year gap in bouts.

The point spread of ‘Poirier -5.5 points -105’ most surprises me as this seems to indicate a relatively one-sided fight favoring Poirier.

I handicap this fight as very tight early but as the minutes elapse wears Poirier’s speed, precision, power, cardio and footwork will be the differentiating factors in this bout.

Poirier via KO, Submission or DQ +130

Jan Blachowicz -120 vs. Alex Pereira +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

Brazilian Pereira we last saw being KO’d By Israel Adesanya in their rematch at middleweight this past April after KO’ing the then champion in the fifth round of their first bout.

Pereira moves up to the 205lb. weight class for obvious reasons. He walks around at 225-230lbs. normally. The cut to 185 made him a monster to face on fight day but as Adesanya displayed this past April, that cut took too much away from the Brazilian stalwart thus this move up.

Weight class or not Pereira, a decorated, elite, world class kickboxer is relatively inexperienced in the MMA realm as his 7-2 record indicates.

He was profoundly powerful and dangerous at the middleweight level and his power will more than translate to light heavyweight.

What he may have issues with are the size of combatants he’ll face as well foe’s whose fight arsenal is equipped with world class grappling and wrestling are sure to provide Pereira with plenty of challenge for his area of improvement is surely grappling.

In ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, we have a relatively understated Polish killing machine trained in Judo, dangerous on his feet and decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Blachowicz has been in with the likes of Jared Cannonier, Glover Teixeira (Pereira’s coach and mentor) and Thiago Santos, so he’s prepared for structured, physical foes like Pereira.

What Blachowicz offers as his most valued asset in this fight is his well-rounded fight ability.

He can compete at a world class level anywhere this fight goes. Blachowicz’s certain edge in the grappling/wrestling department provide him the means to get his hand raised in this bout.

He’ll need to press and tax the Brazilian striker from the opening bell and try to back him up. Blachowicz does not benefit in any way by remaining at distance too long.

For Blachowicz, eliminating distance from Pereira, smothering him, clasping onto him, clinching then pressing him against the fence are signals he’s got the fight working by his parameters because the next move from fence is floor and once there this fight becomes Blachowicz’s to lose.

In summary, Blachowicz wants to fight forehead to forehead, then chest to chest while his Pereira must maintain distance in order to be effective with those long, vicious, damaging, knee’s, teeps, elbows and fists.

Blachowicz opened -145 for this fight because he is the experienced light heavyweight with more diverse weaponry. We’ve seen his price drop a bit leading into the week which in my estimation makes the Blachowicz side an interesting proposition.


Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Under -185

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. All my final releases can be found there. I’ll also appear on VSiN’s ‘Follow the Money’ program Friday 5:30AM PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!