The Monster fight card that is UFC 300 is upon us!
Thirteen matchups comprised with twelve athletes that are current champions or former champions. Each fighter on this card is worthy of headlining any Fight Night or PPV. In this case, we get the benefit of a whole slate of elite matchups.
Last week at UFC90 Chepe Mariscal who was released +105 earned a close decision win that in all honesty I had scored for his opponent.
In the UFC, fights going to the judge’s scorecards become very risky business as the criteria for judging fights has recently been tweaked to take into consideration ‘damage’ over ‘control.’
Compounding matters is the stringent inconsistency by which these decisions have been ruled under the ‘supposed’ new guidelines. At the end of the day, there will be results that are going to be rendered as difficult to understand, some even impossible to figure.
Such is the fight game when it comes to judging.
Heading into this epic UFC 300 fight slate digital results including that Chepe win stand 9-5 +7.27.
Last week’s second release, the first leg of a parlay involving Alex Morono -295 was a winner. He is paired with Jailin Turner -215 who fights in this event. The parlay placed last week returns 1 full unit on an investment of 1.04 units.
Let’s look at a handful of bouts.
Alex Pereira -130 vs. Jamahal Hill +110 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Championship
Hill, a brown belt in BJJ is the former champion who vacated the belt because of an Achilles injury suffered last July.
He is a deft boxer/striker with great movement and substantial power, but he is singularly dimensioned and has come into this fight with an abbreviated fight camp choosing to take advantage of being a headliner for this event at the request of the UFC who was struggling to find a banner main event matchup.
Pereira, the current champion, is also a brown belt in BJJ but under the instruction of a more renown Jui-Jitsu head, he is also a black belt in kickboxing where he is regarded as an ultra-elite, world class talent based on his body of work.
Pereira’s utilizes a formidable leg kick attack that immediately compromises opponents then when the adversary’s mobility is compromised, he moves in to inflict harm.
Hill’s decision to take this short notice five round championship off an Achilles injury that was incurred under a year ago coupled with Pereira being the more versed mixed martial artist and the more refined striker makes Pereira a bargain at current pricing.
Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -175
Zhang Weili -485 vs. Yan Xiaonan +375 Woman’s strawweight Title
Yan was the first woman signed to the UFC from China. She is primarily a striker who has recently been awarded a blue belt in BJJ.
Yan’s primarily a boxer who is just becoming more comfortable wrestling at thirty-six years of age. She will be the slightly taller fighter in this bout but her level of competition pales in comparison to her Chinese adversary Weili.
Weili, the current champion is a brown belt in BJJ, a structured wrestler and a profusely powerful striker/kicker who is extremely focused on forcing aggression directly to opponents.
Zhang’s faced and defeated the elite of the division and is currently on her second stint as titleholder. Her five-round experience against a far superior level of competition, her more complete, diverse fighting arsenal and her innate power qualify her a deserving, heavy favorite in these five round championship bouts.
Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Over -150
Justin Gaethje -175 vs. Max Holloway +145 (155lbs.) BMF Championship
Gaethje defends the BMF belt he earned when he head kick KO’d Dustin Poirier last July.
Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight finishing striking power. He utilizes numbing low leg kicks and is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster.
Gaethje has competed against the class of the division and since 2019 has only had setbacks against Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov both world class grappling/wrestling talents which Holloway is not.
On the Feet Gaethje is a chainsaw.
His opponent Max Holloway is the former champion at the 145lb. division. Holloway wandered up to lightweight five years ago to face the aforementioned Poirier only to undertake an absolute beating in that bout.
It is my position and Holloway’s, that he took that fight without the necessary due diligence required to compete at the 155lb. division.
For this bout Holloway’s eight months to adapt his already structured frame to lightweight as opposed to the three plus months he took previously for this challenge force me to regard him very seriously though it is quite possible his best days have left him.
Holloway is a fluid moving striker who accrues damage over time and with volume for he has little pure punching power. He chooses to sharpshoot opponents with matriculated precision striking and brilliant counters.
From the opening bell, it will be Gaethje who will apply an aggressive forward attack to feast while Holloway must use footwork/movement to maintain distance in his effort to piece up Gaethje with precision, volume fists, kicks, and elbows. The thirty-foot cage is an asset to Holloway.
This fight will be a stylistic masterpiece.
Total in this battle 3.5Rds. Over -165
Jailin Turner -240 vs. Renato Moicano +185 Lightweight (155lbs.)
Brazilian athlete Moicano is a black belt in both BJJ and Muay Thai striking. He is long, lean and can hold his own while fights are waged on the feet. Moicano is lethal in his grappling and his ability to dominate adversaries on the ground, which is his forte.
At thirty-four and after a couple of recent wins, Moicano has become highly marketable in the organization. The fighter has learned English and parlayed it with a heavy dose of trash talking. His newly founded effervescent personality coupled with recent favorable matchups have jettisoned him up the ranks of the division to his current rank of thirteen.
Turner, the tenth ranked athlete in the division is the man who will stand at the opposite end of the octagon from Moicano.
Turner will be the larger athlete in the cage holding a 4-inch advantage in height as well arm/leg reach. He is also six years younger.
Turner is 6-2 in the division since 202 with losses only to ninth ranked Dan Hooker and fourth ranked Mateuz Gamrot who is a chain wrestling machine.
It was that loss experience against Gamrot, a bout Turner took on just a few days’ notice that provides the foundation for my confidence in the handicap for this fight.
Turner will appear to be fighting at a higher weight class when the bell for this fight chimes. His height, length, larger frame, and his take down defense together will allow him to thwart the incoming grappling advances of Moicano.
To be competitive in this fight, Moicano must advance forward to engage. In a larger cage against a much younger, larger more adroit man this is a prescription for damage.
Turner is an ascending athlete in the division, and he is facing a scrapper in Moicano who is made for him when size, age and fighting style are handicapped.
Turner is currently -240 yet because of the parlay applied last week with Morono, digital readers hold Turner at the advantageous price of -104.
*Turner -1.04u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight: 1.5 Pick-em.
*Those unable to realize the parlay prescribed in last week’s column may consider Turner ‘to win via Finish’ -165 which is available at DraftKings Sportsbook under the tab ‘Winning Method’.
Bobby Green -175 vs. Jim Miller +145 Lightweight (155lbs.)
In July 2009 at UFC 100 Jim Miller defeated Mac Danzig via decision. In July 2016 Jim defeated Takanori Gomi via finish in round one.
Now for UFC 300 the forty-year-old Miller takes on Bobby ‘King’ Green.
Miller 26-16-1 in UFC competition is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who has seen everything the fight game can offer throughout his storied career.
In this fight he finally gets a chance to face an athlete’s he has been scheduled to face three times prior with each of those bouts being cancelled for one reason or another.
Green is no spring chicken himself at thirty-seven, but he is one of few UFC fighters who was competing professionally when Miller competed in UFC 100.
Now these two cagey UFC veterans finally get their chance to ‘get it on.’
Unfortunately for Miller, Green is three years younger, he is the well more athletic combatant and he is a most under rated wrestler though he rarely utilizes his skilled wrestling in fights.
On the feet Green is a slick customer who moves with grace and fluidity. He is an expert counter striker who can damage opponents from any angle moving forward, backward, or laterally and he carries power in the quickness of his strikes.
The knock on Green used to be his lack of preparedness and commitment for bouts but on this stage and with Green coming in off a KO loss against Jailin Turner it is my handicap that Green will overwhelm Miller Saturday.
Bobby Green is simply too fast, too precise with his striking and too athletic for Jim Miller at this stage of Miller’s career.
Green opened -210 for this fight so I will gladly take the discount.
Green 1.80u to earn 1.0u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -145
My ‘Bout Business Podcast has six releases lined up for UFC 300 with a few more to be dished after weigh-ins Friday. Catch the podcast only at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy this epic fight card.