This week Newark, NJ hosts UFC 328, a thirteen fight event utilizing the large octagon in front of some of New Jersey’s finest fight fanatics.
Seven of the thirteen bouts will be waged between men weighing 170lbs. and larger. Those large men provide the highest finish rates to be found in the organization.
Name recognition and dynamic stylistic matchups await viewers. The production’s early prelims begin at 2pm PST, preliminary actions starts at 4pm PST then finally the main card which drops at 5pm PST.
Six US fighters hold the advantage of facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete, as well there are three bouts where the youth advantage is greater than 6 years presenting those athletes with a 65% win rate.
Digital results (8-9-1 -2.0u) took a unit hit last week as my release of Jack Della Maddalena was a disaster. That was as large a miss as I can recall making.
Time to bounce back.
Khamzat Chimaev -600 vs. Sean Strickland +470 Middleweight (185lbs.) title
Middleweight champion Chimaev is a three-time Swedish national champion in freestyle wrestling. He is also decorated with a black belt in BJJ.
Chimaev has competed in and dominated two division’s in the UFC and threatens to make it three.
This Russian gangster is incredibly strong, his unrelenting, forceful forward aggression is admired by other decorated world class wrestlers/grapplers, and his striking is slowly beginning to evolve though he does not need to employ that aspect of MMA into his repertoire simply because no one can stop his dominant pressure wrestling.
Inactivity and cardio are the only critiques one may thrust upon Chimaev as he has struggled in the past with visas and access into the USA which covers his inactivity.
Past fights with welterweights (170lbs.) Gil Burns and Kamaru Usman lead me to believe that Chimaev’s gas tank could be suspect as Burns and Usman both are welterweight athletes that forced Chimaev into decision fights.
Number three ranked and former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is Chimaev’s foe this weekend and it should be added that these two have trained together prior just to add some depth and a sprinkle of hatred to this matchup.
Strickland is the only fighter on the UFC roster that can match the maniacal behavior/process of Chimaev both inside and outside of the cage. Strickland’s the well more versed mixed martial artist between these two as his striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio are all developed and complete.
Strickland, who is a full grown middleweight fighter, will strive to keep the blitzing Chimaev at bay with movement, take down defense and his own brand of fists, elbows, and occasional kicks.
Strickland’s focus will be to compete with Chimaev for the first two rounds of this fight with the goal of forcing Chimaev to expend his cardio/energy. If Strickland can weather the first ten minutes of this battle then he may get to turn the tables on Chimaev, a fighter who is known to slow as fights progress.
At the bell for round three, Chimaev will have to deal for another three rounds with a threat in Strickland who can actually get stronger as this fight progresses.
Chimaev opened -400 for this fight and it’s my judgement that this fight will be well more competitive than any we have seen Chimaev undertake simply because of Stricklands fortitude, his natural middleweight body size, and his ability to out crazy anyone in the organization including Chimaev. .
Strickland’s going to need to weather a furious first two rounds then he’ll look to turn the tables on this monster and bully this bully.
Chimaev has the reputation of being a devastator but those Usman and Burns fights tell me that Strickland has everything he needs to be able to compete with this man on par.
Many fight pundits suspect that Strickland is simply Chimaev’s next victim, and that may be the case, but I find it also quite plausible that Strickland, a guy completely unafraid of anything will be able to reproduce that effort his last fight out against Fluffy Hernandez.
With that type of performance, Strickland can not only compete with Chimaev but take this fight well into the deep championship waters. There is surely a path for Strickland winning this bout
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120 FanDuel
Over 2.5Rds. 2.40u to earn 2.0u
Tatsuro Taira -160 vs. Joshua Van +140 Flyweight (125lbs.) title
Van, twenty-four is a highly athletic volume striker who has cage intelligence, deft footwork, precision striking and an abundance of power in his strikes.
A blue belt in BJJ Van’s grappling and wrestling are mainly unpronounced as he does his talking with his hands and on his feet for Josh Van has a combination of athleticism, speed, precision, and bad intention in everything he throws upon opponents. Van is a gifted striker indeed.
In Tatsuru Taira we have a Japanese grappler extraordinaire decorated with a purple belt in BJJ. Taira’s going to be the taller, longer athlete in the cage who will also hold a five inch reach advantage.
Taira’s blueprint for success revolves around him taking Van to the canvas while Van’s focus will be to absolutely keep this fight standing.
At the end of the day Taira, twenty-six and gaining momentum with each fight will get Van to the floor and when that occurs it will mark the beginning of the end of this fight as I handicap it.
Taira opened -185 so I’ll gladly take the discount being offered on him currently.
Taira -160 1u
Bobby King Green -300 vs. Jeremy Stephens +250 (Lightweight 155lbs.)
Forty year old Jeramy Stephens arrives to Newark to participate in an epic battle that should have been waged years ago. Stephens, a purple belt in BJJ employs little BJJ in his fights for Stephens is a single mindedly focused finisher who used the bludgeoning effect of his elbow, fists, and kicks to demolish opponents.
Stephens has twenty nine career victories of which twenty-one have come via finish.
Stephens’ power and aggression remains but his footwork, strike evasion and cardio have long since left him. He’ll look to win this battle via the KO.
In King Green we have a thirty-nine year old adversary to Stephens who while on par with Stephens on age, far exceeds him when it comes to athleticism, fleet footedness, strike evasion, and precision striking.
Green does not possess the natural striking power of Stephens but as far as every other measurable aspect of mixed martial arts, Green’s fighting acumen eclipses Stephens.
This should be an exciting fight that will resemble a bull fight with King Green as matador and Stephens as the raging bull.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150
Lean over
Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch it across all podcast platforms on at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.