Three fight slates remain in the UFC for the 2025 campaign.
This week they travel to Qatar for a Fight Night event featuring fourteen scheduled bouts. The UFC will use the 30’ cage for this event which will be populated with thousands of area fans looking to cheer their Muslim brethren to victory over a highly international set of skilled adversaries.
Favorites now stand 299-148-15 in the UFC this year (64.6%).
Three cards remain and the plan is to close the year down with fervor!
Also, please note: this fight card starts Saturday 7am PST with early prelims!
Arman Tsarukyan -500 vs. Dan Hooker +400 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event
Arman Tsarukyan is a gifted, durable, imposing mixed martial artist who uses vice grip pressure wrestling to help him overcome his short stature and lack of length.
A power striker who must enter the pocket on opponents to unleash power strikes, kicks and elbows, Tsarukyan chooses to work his way into the pocket then soften adversaries up with a few shots them immediately drag them down to the floor for a flogging.
Tsarukyan’s wrestling is as developed and effective as any in the lightweight division and his striking is complete enough to allow him to gain inside position in order to clasp, press and floor opponents.
Tsarukyan’s striking while power based, is also a great weapon for him as he realizes a +1.98 significant strike advantage while still being able to floor anyone in the lightweight division. His take down defense is world class and his aggression coupled with his developed fight arsenal make him a legitimate elite talent in the division.
Tsarukyan missed weight in his title opportunity against Islam Makhachev this past January which did not endear him to the UFC brass to say the least. This is why he has been shelved for some nine month’s awaiting a fight.
In Australian Dan Hooker Tsarukan takes on one of the few fighters in the division who is undaunted by his name, his fight game, and his wrestling heavy aggression.
Hooker, now thirty-five is not nearly the wrestler Tsarukyan is, but he is quite experienced in the UFC, he’ll be the taller man by five inches and will sport a three-inch reach advantage over the forward pressing wrestler from Armenia.
Hooker’s kickboxing is elite as well he is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Hooker enters this firefight after earning victory in his last three fights. The last two against top ranked lightweights in which he earned split decision victories.
In his last win, Hooker defeated one Mateusz Gamrot who’s size, strength, aggression, wrestling ability and body type are almost exactly the same as Tsarukyan’s. He just does not possess the striking power that Tsarukyan totes into any fight.
I cannot think of a better precursor to Tsarukyan for a mixed martial artist than Gamrot. I consider Hooker ready, able, and more than willing to go into this fight believing he can and will win but his age and the amount of attrition he has accumulated over his now eleven plus years in the UFC fighting elite competition has me feeling that he’ll be fodder for his Armenian attacker.
Tsarukyan is the worthy favorite here and I would look to the prop market to find value on the favorite here.
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130
Ian Machado Garry -235 vs. Belal Muhammad +195 Welterweight co main event
Former welterweight champion Muhammad is a world class wrestling based fighter who possesses advanced grappling acumen complimented with unending cardio ability. Muhammad’s conditioning and unrelenting forward pressure allows the former champion to break down opponents via incessant, constant, forceful pressure.
Muhammad’s striking is an area of improvement that he must address, thought Muhammad will tell you he can strike with anyone. Ask Jack Della Maddalena if that is the case!
In actuality and when Muhammad is fighting at his peak, he utilizes his striking only long enough and in order to set up his fighting forte, which is his wrestling.
Any attempt by Muhammad to utilize his striking/kicking as a foundation to earn victory in any top ten UFC welterweight bout will result in him being exposed as he was in his last fight by Jack Della Maddalena. We saw Maddalena was dominated last week by Islam Makhachev who wrestled JDM from bell to bell, pilar to post.
Had Muhammad employed the same wrestling focused tactic in his battle against JDM, it is my position that he would be defending his belt on this card as opposed to having to face an extremely dangerous and highly athletic adversary In Ian Machado Garry.
In Garry we have an extremely well rounded mixed martial artist who is going to realize substantial height, reach and age differences in this matchup. Garry is the more adroit, nimble athletic fighter between these two as well he sports an eleven-year age advantage in this matchup.
Garry’s striking is not power based, but his ability to strike fluidly from every angle and position coupled with his deft footwork allow him to maintain the distance he needs to shred opponents with volume striking with unending volume. Garry’s grappling and wrestling is also world class as he is a black belt in Judo.
Muhammad must employ his forceful, patented unrelenting wrestling pressure to enter the pocket. From inside position, he’ll attempt to clasp onto the long, tall Irishman and commence the clasp, the clinch, and the takedown.
Garry’s style makes that ‘enter the pocket at all costs’ tactic a near impossibility for his athleticism and long, lanky body type coupled with his fluidity of movement make it most difficult for adversaries to be able to cut the cage on him then, even more difficult, back him into the fence to try to clinch him up.
I handicap Muhammad to be made for Garry in this contrast of fighting styles for Muhammad’s success will be founded on his cardio and wrestling while Garry’s advantages will come from his athleticism, well rounded mixed martial arts weaponry, and his ability to make himself a difficult athlete to catch up to let along clock.
Muhammad’s wrestling, his cardio, and the strength of his mentality may see him make it through all five rounds however, Garry’s balanced attack laced with an aggressive, yet evasive foundation make him the legitimate favorite in this clash of fighting styles.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -315
I am of the opinion that this total may move to 4.5 Rds.
This week’s release in what I consider to be another favorite laden fight card:
This week’s wager is a parlay:
Tsarukyan ‘to win via any finish’ -150/Garry Decision -120
1u returns 2.05u