UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape is the organization’s final event in 2026.
To date, Favorites in the UFC stand 320-153-17 or 67%. The last couple of years have seen favorites in the UFC exceed the typical 63% +/- rate of success. Are these higher favorite results the new normal or will we eventually witness some reversion from underdogs?
This week’s event will take place from the UFC APEX facility which utilizes the smaller 25’ octagon and a facility that houses so very few live attendees. There are twelve scheduled bouts five of which will take place at the higher weight limits (welterweight to heavyweight).
There are seven fights where age differences between fighters are five years and greater. We understand the great win advantage being six years younger (62%) provides youthful athletes.
This final fight card is populated with athlete’s arriving with diverse fighting styles yet many of the personalities comprising the event are less recognized names. No matter the fighter’s popularity, all are working diligently to catch lightning in a bottle based on the outcomes of these battles.
Manuel Kape -300 vs. Brandon Royval +255 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event
We last watched Brandon Royval lose an ultra-close decision in a battle with now champion of the flyweight division Joshua Van this past June.
Royval, a black belt in BJJ trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s unusually tall, long for this division and his fight weaponry allows him to compete effectively anywhere a fight takes place.
7-4 in the UFC Royval, versed with muay Thai striking acumen has competed and defeated several elite flyweights and has lost only to Brandon Moreno a former champion, Van the current flyweight champion, and Alexandre Pantoja another former flyweight champion.
Royval, who sports a gangly, long physique is looking to bounce off that loss to Van and defeat Kape who arrives to this fight steeped with potential yet burdened by the inability to consistently make weight.
Angola’s Manuel Kape is in fact a freak athlete. He is extremely athletic, unusually deft, and adroit on his feet, his hands are lightning fast, and he delivers strikes with explosive power coupled with extreme precision.
Kape stands 7-3 in the UFC with losses to Matheus Nicolau, former champion Pantoja, and former UFC athlete Mohammad Mokaev a wrestling based fighter.
It’s my judgement that the class of this division is a focused, motivated Manuel Kape but any attempt to understand Kape’s mentality/drive/focus prior to any fight he undertakes seems folly for he is famous for toying with adversaries and losing focus in the heat of battle which manifests itself in dud performances like the loss he incurred to Nicolau or one sided decision victories.
In this fight Kape will own advantages in speed, quickness, footwork, striking accuracy, power, and youth but his adversary Royval will hold height, reach, and grappling advantages over the nimble knockout artist.
Trying to determine the motivation and preparedness of Manuel Kape is no easy task. One would imagine that he would show up to all fights prepared and ready to fire yet on occasion he plays with his food, remains less than active, seems distracted, and can be domineered by formidable wrestling-based athletes (see Mokaev).
Once the bell for this fight chimes, I look for Royval to try to engage Kape and bring him into Royval’s world which is on the ground for a roll. Clasping onto Kape will be Royval’s best ally as he must discourage any form of stand-up battle with the more powerful, faster, skilled striker.
Provided he can find himself in the clasp or clinch with Kape, Royval will then look to control Kape with his Jui-Jitsu and should he be able to ground Kape he will immediately hold advantage as he looks to take the Angolan’s back then choke him out.
Kape will need to find a way to cut the cage on Royval, a nimble yet awkward athlete himself then force him against the fence where he may unleash a barrage of knee’s, damaging fists, and elbows but Kape must remain diligent in not to allowing Royval to clasp onto him.
These two are both left-handed athletes which will add complexity and potentially awkwardness to this fight especially when it comes to the leg kicking aspect of this bout.
Each man has prepared for and competed in main events so the five-round nature of this fight plus the experience of each man sets this battle up to be a fairly one0sided affair should Kape come with urgency, focus and determination which fans cannot always count on.
At the end of the day, we know what we will get from Royval, but it is difficult to predict the mentality of this man Kape.
Should he come ready, willing, and able to fire he should easily dominate Royval and live up to the price he carries on this fight, however, should he be any form of distracted then Royval may have a tremendous opportunity to utilize his BJJ and make this a highly competitive fight despite the heavy price on Kape.
Again, should Kape come motivated and prepared to fire this is a one-sided result.
Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Over -150
Melquizael Costa -110 vs. Morgan Charriere -110 Featherweight (145) barnburner
This fight card has several legitimate favorites in well place spots.
One fight that is priced as a coin flip is this highly competitive featherweight tilt.
Costa, a Brazilian enters this fray with a very well-rounded skill set. Fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil, Costa brings effective striking as evidenced by his +1.35 significant strike ratio per five minutes of fight time and solid grappling into this most competitive fight.
Costa who arrives off of four straight wins since a loss to current eighth ranked Stevie Garcia in 2023 has competed against fighters that are not quite top fifteen forces in the division but were worthy of delivering Costa into this most important bout.
French pugilist Morgan Charrier arrives to this confrontation as well rounded in fight weaponry as his opponent Costa however Charriere has been in the cage competing against a more formidable array of opponent.
3-2 in the UFC, Charriere has competed against a higher class of athlete than has Costa. In his two losses he has competed brilliantly and competitively against both Chepe Mariscal in a decision that went against Charriere but should not have, then Englishman Nathaniel Wood, a top fifteen featherweight in my judgement.
Costa stands a couple inches taller than Charriere as well he will sport a two-inch reach advantage which should present him some edge while this fight is on the feet. That said, Charrier’s footwork, his sold wrestling pedigree and his quickness, explosive striking and athleticism are what makes the difference between these two fighters.
This battle will be competitive anywhere it transitions; I look for Charriere who opened -155 in this matchup to hold advantages in level of competition faced, athleticism and dynamic fighting ability.
The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -210 which further highlights the competitive nature of this bout.
Charriere opened -150 in this battle. He has faced more dangerous competition than has Costa and arrives off the momentum of an impressive victory over Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr in Landwehr’s home state of Tennessee.
It’s my judgement that the opening number was a more accurate depiction of how this fight will transpire than current pricing and for that reason I’ll release
Morgan Charriere -110 1u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210
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