The UFC marches through the summer of twenty-five with events lined up for weeks without having to revisit the APEX as the UFC is in the midst of expanding that facility.
From New Jersey they move to Atlanta, GA for Fight Night Usman vs. Buckley, a Welterweight main event. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and the main card at 7pm PT.
Atlanta will provide these combatants with a full house crowd looking to slam suds and view violence.
Seven of the thirteen bouts feature the larger men weighing 170lbs and above, so the UFC has allocated an abundance size and power to this event. They will fight in the large cage which favors more athletic, fleet-footed, nimble fighters as opposed to the engagers who need to close distance, clasp, and wrestle.
This fight card is comprised of US and Canadien athletes with a stray Scot, Frenchman, Peruvian and one or two other foreigners scattered within.
Kamaru Usman +210 vs. Joaquin Buckley -245 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Seventh ranked welterweight Buckley arrives at this fight with great momentum and trajectory.
Fifth ranked welterweight Joaquin Buckley is thirty-one, he is dangerously explosive, driven to compete for a title and he has the benefit of fighting remarkably close to home.
A winner of his last six bouts, Buckley, has not tasted defeat since late 2022.
Buckley is short, compact but profusely powerful with his striking and he hits the octagon with a complete fight arsenal founded on an established wrestling base, forward pressing aggression, and heart.
Usman, on paper, represents a significant step up in pedigree of foe for Buckley but at thirty-eight and having to compete on knee’s that have been MMA active for decades with wrestling prior to that, it’s safe to say that Usman’s now a shell of a fighter now that he was just two to three years ago.
Buckley’s fight game is power based, yet he realizes a +1.09 significant strike differential per five minutes which means there is high output behind that high voltage power. He is active with takedowns averaging just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes and finally Buckley’s takedown defense is 73% which is testimony to his short hard physique and his deep ability to defend a takedown.
Usman, a decorated DII college wrestler and a BJJ black belt needs little introduction. The former champion remains a forceful wrestler, a solid striker, and an accomplished force inside the octagon but in my judgement Usman’s utility inside the top fifteen of this division will be wiped away with a loss in this fight.
He enters after having dropped his last three bouts (two against the timid Leon Edwards and one against the inconsistent Kamzat Chimaev). In that Chimaev fight, Usman looked formidable, he showed his durability, but he was also slow and laboring in a three round decision defeat to the younger faster Russian.
Usman’s mind is as sharp and powerful as ever; however, his body has been tattered from years of world class competition, especially his knee’s.
Usman’s striking remains effective, and his wrestling is sound but his explosion, his ability to move fluently, and his strike defense have all shown signs of waning.
It will be an arduous task for Usman, proud old warrior that he is to remain competitive in this fight with such a massive difference in age, speed, and quickness between these two.
Usman’s knee situation is real, it is tangible, and it mutes his ability to be as effective as he was in the prime of his career.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -130
Rose Namajunas -260 vs. Miranda Maverick +220 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main
Eleventh ranked Maverick, a black belt in BJJ with a formidable wrestling base has earned victory over her last five straight bouts. The level of competition faced in those fights has steadily ascended into this sizable test as she now faces former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.
Namajunas with black belts in Karate and Tae Kwon Do and a brown belt in BJJ surely has the fight arsenal to make her a threat in this division. Rose carries name recognition, she is a former UFC champion and she brings an extremely well-rounded fighting repertoire to face a shorter stockier adversary in Maverick.
Maverick is a southpaw and though she is shorter than Rose she is also five years younger and fighting at her natural weight class where Rose has had to rise into the flyweight division because she is no longer able to make 116 pounds for strawweight and retain any energy.
Rose’s results at 125lbs. have been acceptable as she has been able to defeat Amanda Riibas and journey woman Tracy Cortrez but lost flyweight bouts to both Manion Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield.
While Namajunas has the pedigree and name recognition, I believe this Maverick test will be a difficult one for her because Maverick’s forward wrestling pressure, her aggression and her physicality will force Rose to engage and defend where ideally she wants to dwell in space and snap strikes at her incoming aggressor.
This fight is total 2.5Rds Over -520!
Maverick +220 half unit
I will also release Maverick via decision (lines not out yet) for a half unit and Maverick plus points (lines not yet out) for another half unit.
Three wagers on this bout!
I will update this article once those prices become available to the market.
Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)
Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for this, his third UFC battle after their originally scheduled bout was cancelled (May 17th) due to a Bellato illness (for lack of a better description).
When this fight was cancelled, Bellato was priced -550, now, inside a month later the fight reopened it is lined Bellato -360?
Bellato is a chiseled, heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.
Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted …. rapidly.
Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue for the power striking Brazilian is that on offense he is able but defensively he is flawed. Bellato allows 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition which leave an abundance of room for improvement!
In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev. Submissions are craigs game and striking department he is mundane at best so the opportunity to wear on the big Brazilian to ty to KO him late is remote.
Craig, a large man himself has a body type that falls more under ‘dadbod’ than ‘sculpted’ or ‘chiseled.’ His striking is lacking for mixed martial artists of this level, but it is his grappling/submission ability that has allowed Craig to compete deep into this division and onto this fight Saturday.
Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig early in this fight while these men are standing.
For Craig, should he be able to make it past the first round then ground the Bear sized Brazilian, he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker as Bellato swells up early from his torrid pace as well he is as uncomfortable on the mat as Craig is on the feet!
Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?
I lean to Craig.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 (when this fight was taken down a few weeks ago, this total was 1.5Rds Under -135)
Friday early morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast becomes available at GambLou.com. My final positions can be accessed there.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!