Last week UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024 when favorites ran above 70%!
As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX where fights are still held in the small twenty-five-foot cage. That mentioned, athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility where the crowds are now slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights prior to the remodel.
This card is schedule for eleven fights, it has only four battles at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above as well there are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater with the most obtuse difference being a SEVENTEEN year between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes and in this case the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.
I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is in UFC outcomes especially when said youth is complimented with size and length.
Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest itself in every way, shape, and form and in this column weekly we try to expose readers to the nuances of those nuances and advantages.
This LV 109 fight card starts at 1pm PST with the prelims then the main card drops at 4pm PST.
Last week Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world class mixed martial artist.
Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round.
That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now to stack wins together in order to finish this 2025 campaign with enhanced bottom line.
This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on the VSiN digital magazine, the column has realized bottom line profitability in each year since VSiN began and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces fight fans and let’s invest into LV 109!
Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who is able to pivot between both light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.
Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler, his size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level and his striking is power based. Cardio? Well Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in negative fashion.
In this fight Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter fleeter footed athlete. Ideally Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.
Dolidze will/should choose to work the body in order to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful this fight transitions to his favor for he is heavy handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.
In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine.
Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event.
His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.
Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically for he overshadows him in significant strike differential, take down ability and take down defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early ten minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first ten minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.
Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism of cardio ability of Hernandez.
At the end of the day Hernandez’ diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which Hernandez wins this bout. I believe a late round finish either ground and pound or submission is in the cards for this fight.
Total in this fight is 3.5Rds. Under -115
Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili Featherweight +195 (145lbs.)
Andre ‘Toucy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some twelve years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.
Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire and at the ripe fighting age of thirty-five, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.
Fili will be the taller athlete in this matchup as well, the longer, fighter which he is used to. However, Fili’s height once a great advantage to him when younger actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion has regressed and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.
In Chistian Rodriguez we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick, he has great feet which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.
Rodriguez’ last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.
While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years the younger fresher fighter force me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.
This week’s investment: A parlay
Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320
1.15u to earn 1.02u
Total in this bout stands 2.5Rds Over -220
Rodriguez is NOT overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO so tread carefully with this total.
Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.