Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

“If you want to be wrong, follow the masses” Socrates

Every year, months prior to the NFL regular season, I preach to anyone who will listen on the aspect of applying discipline into one’s sports betting.

Sportsbooks and shows that are the voice for the Books (Sportsgrid, VSiN and the like) are harping at listeners from the Super bowl to the Hall of Fame game about early ‘value’ bets in the NFL because there is nothing to speak of that holds anyone’s interest in the dog days of summer.

Forget that those dishing the releases are bumblers that are unaware of how square they are or they are simply journalists who must fill dead time who are aware that talking anything but NFL will have listeners turning off their program!

Beside tying up one’s money for months, there is little to NO benefit in firing early.

Take for example all the pukes that were all over the Rams over season wins and played them for the division, conference and/or SB this year?

Now Stafford is injured and no one knows how badly this will affect him, his team and the few imbeciles that thought firing on an ‘over’ months before the season was smart.

Players please use your head and some common sense!

Simply understand that what Socrates stated so many years ago is correct:

“If you want to be wrong, follow the masses.”

So forget jumping early NFL bets now, be patient, be businesslike and if you must throw a wager out there early, please make certain it is an Under or for a team to NOT win a division because until the pre season is completed (it is now completed) it is folly to try to get in front of Overs and positive happenings for a team.

With Under wagering or with wagering on a team to NOT accomplish something those injuries, trades and retirements can only contribute to your bottom line, not destroy it!

Word to you Momma!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Shanghai: Chinese wreckers

From the epic production that was the violence filled UFC 319, to a more boutique Fight Night event we go!  This week’s UFC FN Shanghai will kick off at Midnight PT with the preliminary card then at 3am PT the main card will drop.

There are twelve bouts from this Shanghai fight card currently scheduled, a large cage will be in use and a full hose crowd of Chinese fight fans eager to enjoy mixed martial arts battles will be present, they’re as passionate as any fanbase anywhere.

We’ll see five bouts where there exists a greater than five-year age difference between combatants. This is important to understand as athletes with six years of youth advantage historically realize a 62%-win advantage.

There are six local Chinese athletes featured on the card, and they face a smattering of athletes from across the globe and in almost each case the local/regional athlete is presented with advantage, because they face opponents five or more years elder than they.

In four of the five fights where there is a five year or greater age difference …lo and behold it is the local Chinese athlete that are the beneficiary of that advantage.

There are five ‘big boi’ fights where men weighing 170 pounds or more compete. These fights often end in or with a finish.

The UFC knows exactly what it’s doing (presenting local area athletes with a relatively advantageous opponent situation) when it exports its product outside the U.S. as their zeal to expand the brand  is unquenchable.

Last week I rode with the defending Champion middleweight Dricus du Plessis believing he would bully his opponent, the favored Kamzat Chimaev in their title bout. I could not have been more incorrect. Chimaev made DDP look like he had never competed in a wrestling competition as well he made me look like I have not been handicapping fights for some forty-five plus years!

On we go!

Mingyang Zhang -340 vs. Johnny Walker +290 Light Heavyweight (205lbs) main event

Brazilian Walker was training in Ireland and has now moved his training to Las Vegas’ Xtreme Courture. Walker is the thirteenth ranked fighter in the division. He is a brown belt in BJJ and an extremely dangerous, powerful striker. Walker is highly athletic and unusually structured for a light heavyweight talent.

Finding athletes who are keenly coordinated, nimble afoot and that carry natural God given power are rare in combat sports, but Walker has the tools to destroy any adversary in any fight and at any time.

Walker’s 6’5” frame coupled with his dynamic litheness are facets opposing fighters all struggle with for Walker is aggressive, able to move with fluidity and he’s extraordinarily strong and powerful with all his striking weaponry.

What Walker struggles with is something that a fighter is never able to overcome or improve, and this shortcoming has cost Walker his positionwith in the elite of the division because of this shortcoming.

His shortcoming is his lack of ability to take a flush fist to the face.

Since 2023 Walker’s realized a 0-2-1 mark in the UFC. His lack of ability to evade power strikes is a shortcoming he must address one way or another because if he could employ his athleticism to more effectively evade incoming power punches he would be better suited to realize success and dynamic., violent success at that.

At the heart of the issue for Walker is his inability to absorb legitimate light heavyweight striks to his head. Since 2019 Walker has lost six of eleven fights and in all six losses he was knocked unconscious.

Trying to navigate a ‘balsa wood beak’ in today’s light heavyweight division of the UFC is close to an impossible task which is why Walker, who is well equipped in all aspects of mixed martial arts is the sizable underdog he is to this relatively novice athlete Zhang who has but three UFC battles under his belt.

In fact, it is my judgement that Walker’s been placed in this position to serve as ‘patsy’ for Zhang in this fight because Walker’s lack of ability to take a knock to the nose feeds right into Zhang’s strength which is power striking.

In the aforementioned Mingyang Zhang we have a relatively new, developing UFC talent. Zhang is used to being the taller, longer athlete in the cage so for this fight he will have to navigate Walker’s size, length, kicking acumen, experience, and profuse punching power.

Zhang’s a fighter who began to refine his Sanda* fighting style/expertise in a Shaolin Monastery as a youth developing his craft. Eventually he earned a blue belt in BJJ to go with that expertise and today Zhang arrives to this fight the next big, hyped athlete in the UFC from China.

While Zhang is a heavy favorite for this battle, I believe that Walker’s experience, his size, length, and razor-sharp striking style will provide him plenty of opportunity to shine in this fight.

The ultra-athletic Walker, must evade the slow, telegraphed power strikes from Zhang who is nowhere near as nimble afoot or athletic as Walker.  Walker stands in great position to be able to defeat a man much less athletically equip than he, however, should Walker incur one or more power strikes from Zhang, he is liable to crumple to the floor like a dropped bag of sand.

The price screams for me to give Walker a chance in this spot but Walker’s porcelain chin forces me to think twice about backing him.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -300

That total verifies that one man is going to potentially bludgeon the other…. which man Clobber’s and which man gets clobbered I am not certain, but what I am feeling confident about is the Over and more particularly the prop ‘fight starts round 2’ which will be out later this week.

Lone’er Kavanaugh -205 vs. Charles Johnson +180 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Kavanaugh from England is 9-0 professionally and 2-0 in the UFC. Kavanaugh is short, squat, powerful and well rounded for he can wrestle.

Johnson arrives to China off a loss in his last bout after rattling off four straight UFC wins prior. He has numerous physical advantages in this fight. He is the taller man by five inches; he sports a three-inch reach advantage with both legs and arms. Johnson also owns advantage in level of competition faced and of course UFC experience.

Once the bell for this fight rings the test for Kavanaugh will be to penetrate Johnson’s length/striking to earn his way inside the pocket where he can mute Johnson’s striking prowess while doing damage to the longer taller fighter via his power striking and kicks.

For Johnson, this fight is all about distance and whether he can maintain it appropriately and by all means keep this fight standing so he can execute a plan that entails ‘painting Kavanaugh’s fence’ as the shorter Englishman attempts to work his way inside.

These two men are Flyweight athletes vying in a large cage which often means a decision fight. Proof of that statement is evidenced by this fight’s total which is currently lined 2.5rds Over -335!

That total attests to the fact that this fight will be like watching two wasps warring in a mason jar. At the end of the day, Johnson’s experience, size, and length make the difference here as well he can be captured as an underdog.

Johnson +180

The ‘Bout Business’ Podcast will have all my final releases available sometime Friday before mid-day PT. Remember fight fans this card kicks off in the wee hours of Saturday morning PT so be prepared to enjoy a little OJ with your Omaplata!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

*Sanda is a Chinese form of mixed martial arts that combines kicking, striking, and grappling.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 319 Du Plessis vs. Chimaev: Collar tie on Clark

This week’s event is called UFC 319, and it will be one of five final PPV events for the UFC as in 2026 the platform for UFC events will be Paramount and CBS in essence killing the antiquated PPV model for a much more lucrative opportunity. There is much to comment upon here but that will be saved for another time.

Saturday UFC fight fans will witness a terrifically matched main event of Middleweight stalwarts where champion Dricus Du Plessis a South African faces number three ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler who many regard as the most dangerous athlete on the roster.

The fight card kicks off with early preliminary action at 3pm PT, regular prelims start at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the card drops at 7pm PT.

There are currently thirteen scheduled bouts for this fight slate. Five of those bouts are comprised of men weighing 170lbs. or more so focus on those fights for the higher probability of finishing potential.

There are five fights where the youth advantage is at least six years or greater and two fights between athletes who compete against one another and are at least thirty-seven years old. The geriatric bouts!

Last week my suggested parlay position lost bringing results for this column to 16-18 -.47u for the year.

Let’s get back into the black this week!

Khamzat Chimaev -230 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +195 Champion Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Chimaev is a Russian demolition man decorated with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess. He fights/trains between Sweden and the UAE. Chimaev hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential thus far in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues, inactivity and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division outside of his last victory, a walloping of Robert Whittaker who had been a perennial top five athlete in the division for a decade as well a former champion of the division.

Chimaev’s other two middleweight wins were against Kevin Holland a fighter made for Chimaev, then former middleweight champion Kamaru Usman a welterweight himself who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close majority decision despite taking the bout on very short notice and travelling around the globe to vie against the young Russian. Tlast October’s defeat of former champion Whittaker.

Chimaev, in previous fights, has shown himself to be complete monster in the first two rounds before he begins to wear signs of fatigue. I’m certain he’s addressed the matter but suffice it to say that this champion is a legit hulking middleweight and he will not tire.  Those glimpses of fatigue from Chimaev against undersized foes like Gil Burns and Usman is a contributing factor to how I handicap this battle..

Chimaev faces elite middleweight competition in this fight and a man with drive perseverance and pride. Without question Champion Dricus Du Plessis is a much more dangerous opponent to Chimaev than anyone Chimaev has competed against in battle and in practice.

South African Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, he has an unconventional, awkward, uneven approach to his fighting. He is a massive sized man, he is dynamically strong, has great cardio and is as tough and durable as any fighter on the roster.

What Du Plessis is not is nimble footed, slick, fast, or precise with his striking which favors him in this fight for he’ll not need to call upon any of those skills to best Chimaev as Du Plessis will attack the bully and try to steal his will with aggressive blunt force forward pressure.

Du Plessis lives by the adage that ‘every action has an equal and opposite reaction’ so the Du Plessis plan in any fight but most especially in this one, will be to take the fight directly to Chimaev and execute a pulverization of said adversary until he succumbs.

This is a fight that one must watch from the beginning for Chimaev will look to dominate Du Plessis early with his forceful, smothering, grappling acumen and try to overwhelm him, in essence he’ll attempt to drown the champion with the force of his grappling/wrestling pressure.

For Du Plessis, he has little intention of evading and buying time to take Chimaev deep into this fight rather he wants to overwhelm Chimaev in his own strategy, by attacking him from the opening bell.

Yes, I believe Du Plessis will look to bully the bully for this approach has shown promise in the past against the lesser experienced Chimaev especially after the first five/ten minutes of fighting when fatigue begins to creep in and is able “to make cowards of us all.”

Chimaev has had but one fight since October of 2023 and while he has likely improved his weaponry specifically his cardio capability in the months leading up to this fight, his lack of live octagon work in the last eighteen months must be mentioned.

Meanwhile Du Plessis has faced and earned victory in nine straight UFC bouts, four of them title defenses and against the elite of the MIDDLEWEIGHT division. In the time that Chimaev has had one bout, DDP’s competed in three different title defense fights.

Du Plessis’ fortitude, his size, strength, and experience will all be required in this fight against what many inside the UFC and outside of it regard as a legitimate ‘boogie man.’

I sense that the uber aggression and forward pressure of Du Plessis, provided he is able to navigate this fight into the third round, will eventually drain the energy and will from the front running bully from Beno-Yurt, Chechnya, Russia.

In order to retain his title, Du Plessis must execute the best first ten minutes of fighting since his career started because anything less than that form of effort will find him in the clasp of one of the deadliest submission specialists in the UFC.

Du Plessis +195

This line is slowly rising so use patience and catch the best price possible on DDP.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -125

Carlos Prates -245 vs. Goeff Neal +205 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Texan Neal is an accomplished striker who has power in all appendages. Neal, also a purple belt in BJJ, is currently ranked eleventh in a division full of absolute killers.

Neal arrives hot off a win over Rafael Dos Anjos after having dropped a couple of bouts to legitimate, elite top ten talent in the division in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

In twelfth ranked Carlos Prates we have a chain-smoking Brazilian gangster who is a black belt in BJJ and an ultra-aggressive striker with power.

Several factors force me to regard Prates as most dangerous in this spot. He sports height, reach, and age advantages over Neal, he’s the faster more dynamic athlete despite the fact that he has a heater hanging out of his mouth at all times save for the time he spends fighting in the cage.

Once the bell rings for this fight, we will see too aggressive strikers, both of whom have been defeated by Garry, approach each other with the sole purpose of knocking the other unconscious.

Neal will be the slightly more compact power striker where Prates will be the longer, lengthier, more diversely equipped striker who will employ a forceful leg attack to numb the sound, determined Neal, and take away his movement.

This fight has every indication of being an all-out stand-up battle that fight fans should not miss. At the end of the foray I believe it will be Prates who is able to walk away the victor more than likely via finish.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -165

Edson Barboza -155 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

Brazilian Barboza at thirty-nine moves back up to his original UFC division Lightweight, for this battle of relevance in the UFC.

Klose, his opponent from Phoenix, AZ. is the legitimate lightweight, but he is now thirty-seven himself and enters this key fight off a loss to Joel Alvarez after having won four straight fights in a row.

Both of these men are lethal strikers Klose with heavy hands and more of a direct approach to battle and Barboza with the more diverse striking attack featuring leg numbing kicking acumen.

This fight has finish written all over it but it’s my judgement that it takes one man more than seven minutes thirty seconds to finish the other.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -200

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops at GambLou.com.  There all my final releases for UFC 319 may be accessed.

Thank you for Reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV109 Hernandez vs. Dolidze: The Butcher, the Baker…

 

Last week UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024 when favorites ran above 70%!

As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX where fights are still held in the small twenty-five-foot cage. That mentioned, athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility where the crowds are now slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights prior to the remodel.

This card is schedule for eleven fights, it has only four battles at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above as well there are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater with the most obtuse difference being a SEVENTEEN year between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes and in this case the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.

I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is  in UFC outcomes especially when said youth is complimented with size and length.

Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest itself in every way, shape, and form and in this column weekly we try to expose readers to the nuances of those nuances and advantages.

This LV 109 fight card starts at 1pm PST with the prelims then the main card drops at 4pm PST.

Last week Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world class mixed martial artist.

Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round.

That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now to stack wins together in order to finish this 2025 campaign with enhanced bottom line.

This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on the VSiN digital magazine, the column has realized bottom line profitability in each year since VSiN began and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces fight fans and let’s invest into LV 109!

Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who is able to pivot between both light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.

Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler, his size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level and his striking is power based. Cardio? Well Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in negative fashion.

In this fight Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter fleeter footed athlete. Ideally Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.

Dolidze will/should choose to work the body in order to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful this fight transitions to his favor for he is heavy handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine.

Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event.

His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.

Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically for he overshadows him in significant strike differential, take down ability and take down defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early ten minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first ten minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.

Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism of cardio ability of Hernandez.

At the end of the day Hernandez’ diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which Hernandez wins this bout. I believe a late round finish either ground and pound or submission is in the cards for this fight.

Total in this fight is 3.5Rds. Under -115

Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili Featherweight +195 (145lbs.)

Andre ‘Toucy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some twelve years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.

Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire and at the ripe fighting age of thirty-five, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.

Fili will be the taller athlete in this matchup as well, the longer, fighter which he is used to. However, Fili’s height once a great advantage to him when younger actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion has regressed and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.

In Chistian Rodriguez we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick, he has great feet which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.

Rodriguez’ last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.

While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years the younger fresher fighter force me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.

This week’s investment: A parlay

Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320

1.15u to earn 1.02u

Total in this bout stands 2.5Rds Over -220

Rodriguez is NOT overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO so tread carefully with this total.

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business