UFC Fight Night Macao takes place this week in the wee hours PST from the eastern hemisphere. Preliminary action begins 1AM PST with the main card dropping at 4am PST.
This fight slate is scheduled for fifteen bouts two of which (Road to the UFC bouts) take place in the days prior to Saturday. For handicapping purposes, this column focuses only on the athletes already competing in the UFC so we will offer no opinion on the RTUFC bouts.
Of the thirteen bouts on this card all feature a fighter from the general vicinity competing against a fighter from outside the hemisphere. Travel can and does affect weight cuts and athlete performances.
Also of note is that there is only one fight with the favorite lined under -205 which signifies a card erected not only for finishes but also one designed to allow the regional fighters to shine in front of their brethren.
Throughout this card are premium examples of regional fighters being awarded favorable matchups which ‘should’ allow them to shine. This is a deliberate effort by the UFC, handpicking opponents to allow the regional athletes to shine and therefore fuel the UFC fire in that particular corner of the world.
Five fights are going to be held at the larger weight classes of 170lbs. and above as well there are several fights featuring athletes with a five year or greater youth advantage. A six year youth advantage provides the younger fighter a 62+% win advantage and that win rate grows as the age gap widens!
Song Yadong -600 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +500 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event
Brazilian Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion who at thirty-eight years old is no longer able to make the weight for flyweight and must now compete against naturally larger, stronger, and younger modern stalwarts competing at 135lbs.
1-3 in his last four bouts, Figueiredo has competed against the elite of the division but his approach in those fights has been one of ‘survival’ as opposed to a mad Brazilian fighter looking to take out any opponent set before him.
Figueiredo’s lack of size/strength is a factor against these younger, larger, faster men as well his skills have waned substantially.
Figueiredo enters this fight with a negative .74 significant strike ratio per minute, and his takedown offense as well his takedown defense has eroded.
Figueiredo is a name, he’s been relevant in the UFC, but he is only useful now as a steppingstone for viable top UFC bantamweights.
In Yadong we have a Chinese fighter who has trained for years in America with Uriah Faber at Team Alpha Male. Yadong’s wrestling has evolved greatly in his last several years at Alpha Male which supplements his already forceful boxing and Muay Thail prowess.
Yadong will be the physically larger man in the cage, he’s a decade the younger fighter as well he will be the more adroit, athletic man in the cage.
Yadong’s 3-2 in his last five fights losing only to ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan, both top three fighters in the division.
When this fight begins Yadong will forcefully attempt to engage Figueredo with striking. His single point of focus will be to ungluing the Brazilian and force a stoppage for his Countrymen.
Figueiredo has had injuries affect his performances in two of his last three bouts which is the age and amount of combat attrition he has accrued over the years speaking.
Should Figueiredo attempt to actually engage Yadong and make this a fight then it is my judgement that this fight ends in a Yadong TKO however, should Figgy decide to try and ‘survive’ and make it to the final bell then this fight turns into a snoozer which no one, the UFC, the fans, nor the Yadong camp wish to experience.
If Figgy comes to fight, it will be a finish for Yadong.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -125
Alex Perez -135 vs. Su Mudaerji +110 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Let’s break down the only competitively priced bout of the slate!
Su is an unranked Chinese athlete now training in California, so he did have to travel to get to Macao. That mentioned, he should have the accommodations to be able to spend plenty of time in Macao to naturalize to the time, climate etc.
Su is primarily a striker. His early influences in fighting came from childhood where he specialized in San Da which is a Chinese kickboxing derivative.
Su’s striking is his specialty and while his long, lean, body frame is a perfect temple for his striking style the fact is that Su’s primarily a singularly dimensioned fighter as well an accumulation striker for his power is basically a non-factor.
Su’s wrestling/grappling prowess is inadequate at best. Those wishing to Smother Su in the cage immediately apply wrestling/grappling pressure to take the striker from a relative comfort zone (standing in space) to one of complete incapacity (clinched up then on the canvas).
In Alex Perez we have the eleventh ranked flyweight on the roster. Perez’s holds solid wrestling acumen, and his grappling is also developed. Perez can fight on the feet as well as he has seven fights won via KO/TKO. Perez is a complete mixed martial artist who at thirty-four will be four years older than Su in this battle.
While Su will sport height, youth and reach advantages, it is Perez who has been in the octagon with a more skilled set of adversary as well the completeness of his fighting game allows him to be able to defeat fighters outside of the rankings especially one’s that arrive without a well-rounded fight arsenal.
It is when he competes against the top eight of the division where Perez struggles as he has lost to only the ranked of the flyweight division.
Perez experience, his level of competition faced, and his complete fight acumen differentiate these two who were priced at pick-em when this fight opened.
Now the price on Perez has risen slightly to -140.
Perez -140 (circa)
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms as well on the GambLou.com front page. Catch all my final releases there.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!