Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Profitability

College World Series: The Greatest Show on Dirt

Since 2021 only current SEC teams have won the CWS Championship.

This year there are but two SEC teams, they are the highest ranked teams in the tourney according to Las Vegas odds which are well more aware than any rating service or publication.

There are many nuances to playing in Omaha.

The ballpark is well larger than most college parks, the stadium sits low and south winds whip directly into the teeth of the hitters, making Charles Schwab field a small ball park that often rewards teams that can execute by hitting singles and doubles more than home runs, teams that can field, pitch and steal.

Gorilla ball home run power teams flail in Omaha especially when the wind howls as it does most every summer afternoon.

How about Omaha in General?

It’s a great city. 1m metroplex with friendly people everywhere, great restaurants and here are the tips for those attending.

Best Steak in Omaha is the Whiskey New York at the Drover. Make no mistake about this

Best CWS bar is Barry’ O’s in the Old marker run by an amigo of mine and Barrett’s Barleycorn which willbe home again to LSU so expect that place to be jumping early and often.

Don’t miss the Old Market in Omaha just blocks from the ballpark.

Funniest thing about Rocco’s and the bars by the ballpark is that they wallow year round. Rocco’s ain’t even open all the time but they rake during the CWS.

There’s still time to jump in on the CWS package for 2025. Go to the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this webpage and access the info.

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Atlanta Usman vs. Buckley: Rose expose’d?

The UFC marches through the summer of twenty-five with events lined up for weeks without having to revisit the APEX as the UFC is in the midst of expanding that facility.

From New Jersey they move to Atlanta, GA for Fight Night Usman vs. Buckley, a Welterweight main event. This fight card is scheduled for thirteen fights with prelims beginning at 4pm PT and the main card at 7pm PT.

Atlanta will provide these combatants with a full house crowd looking to slam suds and view violence.

Seven of the thirteen bouts feature the larger men weighing 170lbs and above, so the UFC has allocated an abundance size and power to this event. They will fight in the large cage which favors more athletic, fleet-footed, nimble fighters as opposed to the engagers who need to close distance, clasp, and wrestle.

This fight card is comprised of US and Canadien athletes with a stray Scot, Frenchman, Peruvian and one or two other foreigners scattered within.

Kamaru Usman +210 vs. Joaquin Buckley -245 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked welterweight Buckley arrives at this fight with great momentum and trajectory.

Fifth ranked welterweight Joaquin Buckley is thirty-one, he is dangerously explosive, driven to compete for a title and he has the benefit of fighting remarkably close to home.

A winner of his last six bouts, Buckley, has not tasted defeat since late 2022.

Buckley is short, compact but profusely powerful with his striking and he hits the octagon with a complete fight arsenal founded on an established wrestling base, forward pressing aggression, and heart.

Usman, on paper, represents a significant step up in pedigree of foe for Buckley but at thirty-eight and having to compete on knee’s that have been MMA active for decades with wrestling prior to that, it’s safe to say that Usman’s now a shell of a fighter now that he was just two to three years ago.

Buckley’s fight game is power based, yet he realizes a +1.09 significant strike differential per five minutes which means there is high output behind that high voltage power. He is active with takedowns averaging just under two takedowns per fifteen minutes and finally Buckley’s takedown defense is 73% which is testimony to his short hard physique and his deep ability to defend a takedown.

Usman, a decorated DII college wrestler and a BJJ black belt needs little introduction. The former champion remains a forceful wrestler, a solid striker, and an accomplished force inside the octagon but in my judgement Usman’s utility inside the top fifteen of this division will be wiped away with a loss in this fight.

He enters after having dropped his last three bouts (two against the timid Leon Edwards and one against the inconsistent Kamzat Chimaev). In that Chimaev fight, Usman looked formidable, he showed his durability, but he was also slow and laboring in a three round decision defeat to the younger faster Russian.

Usman’s mind is as sharp and powerful as ever; however, his body has been tattered from years of world class competition, especially his knee’s.

Usman’s striking remains effective, and his wrestling is sound but his explosion, his ability to move fluently, and his strike defense have all shown signs of waning.

It will be an arduous task for Usman, proud old warrior that he is to remain competitive in this fight with such a massive difference in age, speed, and quickness between these two.

Usman’s knee situation is real, it is tangible, and it mutes his ability to be as effective as he was in the prime of his career.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -130

Rose Namajunas -260 vs. Miranda Maverick +220 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) co main

Eleventh ranked Maverick, a black belt in BJJ with a formidable wrestling base has earned victory over her last five straight bouts. The level of competition faced in those fights has steadily ascended into this sizable test as she now faces former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.

Namajunas with black belts in Karate and Tae Kwon Do and a brown belt in BJJ surely has the fight arsenal to make her a threat in this division. Rose carries name recognition, she is a former UFC champion and she brings an extremely well-rounded fighting repertoire to face a shorter stockier adversary in Maverick.

Maverick is a southpaw and though she is shorter than Rose she is also five years younger and fighting at her natural weight class where Rose has had to rise into the flyweight division because she is no longer able to make 116 pounds for strawweight and retain any energy.

Rose’s results at 125lbs. have been acceptable as she has been able to defeat Amanda Riibas and journey woman Tracy Cortrez but lost flyweight bouts to both Manion Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield.

While Namajunas has the pedigree and name recognition, I believe this Maverick test will be a difficult one for her because Maverick’s forward wrestling pressure, her aggression and her physicality will force Rose to engage and defend where ideally she wants to dwell in space and snap strikes at her incoming aggressor.

This fight is total 2.5Rds Over -520!

Maverick +220 half unit

I will also release Maverick via decision (lines not out yet) for a half unit and Maverick plus points (lines not yet out) for another half unit.

Three wagers on this bout!

I will update this article once those prices become available to the market.

Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)

Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for this, his third UFC battle after their originally scheduled bout was cancelled (May 17th) due to a Bellato illness (for lack of a better description).

When this fight was cancelled, Bellato was priced -550, now, inside a month later the fight reopened it is lined Bellato -360?

Bellato is a chiseled, heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.

Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted …. rapidly.

Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue for the power striking Brazilian is that on offense he is able but defensively he is flawed. Bellato allows 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition which leave an abundance of room for improvement!

In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev. Submissions are craigs game and striking department he is mundane at best so the opportunity to wear on the big Brazilian to ty to KO him late is remote.

Craig, a large man himself has a body type that falls more under ‘dadbod’ than ‘sculpted’ or ‘chiseled.’ His striking is lacking for mixed martial artists of this level, but it is his grappling/submission ability that has allowed Craig to compete deep into this division and onto this fight Saturday.

Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig early in this fight while these men are standing.

For Craig, should he be able to make it past the first round then ground the Bear sized Brazilian, he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker as Bellato swells up early from his torrid pace as well he is as uncomfortable on the mat as Craig is on the feet!

Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?

I lean to Craig.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140 (when this fight was taken down a few weeks ago, this total was 1.5Rds Under -135)

Friday early morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast becomes available at GambLou.com. My final positions can be accessed there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 316 Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley The Rematch: Rage against ‘The Machine’

This week UFC 316, a PPV event hits Newark, New Jersey for Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley II the rematch.

The event will be held in the Prudential Center which is situated in the most notoriously corrupt fight commission of all fifty states, Jersey. If one  is of the feeling that UFC judging can at times be difficult to figure, then prepare yourselves for New Jersey. You have been warned!

The large cage and a well lubricated Jersey crowd will greet these fighters. There are scheduled thirteen bouts as of this review with five fights at 170lbs and above where the finish rates are highest. This card is a heavy populated by American fighters but there are athletes arriving from China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Moldova to name a few.

This year underdogs jumped out in the early months but since we have seen heavy favorite results.

To date Favorites in the UFC: 127-64-7 64.1% which is about par for most UFC years….

2025 results: 11-14 -3.65u

Merab Dvalishvili -300 vs. Suga’ Sean O’Malley +250 Men’s Bantamweight (135lbs) title

Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks.

Last fall O’Malley, not fully healthy, lost a decision to Dvalishvili where several things were revealed though that competition.

First, that O’Malley may have overestimated his ability to defend a Dvalishvili takedown. Second, that the Dvalishvili fight IQ was absolutely not on the same level at all with his cardio, wrestling takedowns or will.

O’Malley since that defeat last September has removed himself from the public spotlight to concentrate on attempting to wrest his title away from a fighter in Dvalishvili that must begin to be considered a top three Bantamweight of all time!

For O’Malley to recapture the title he will have had to evolve/improve in mixed martial arts repertoire mentally but as importantly physically.

O’Malley strengths are his speed, precision striking ability and athletic movement, but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize. Make no mistake about the fact that he understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and has been attempting to address this shortcoming years ago but with a much more fervent effort these last six months.

Those who claim O’Malley is not nor ever will be the wrestler/grappler that Dvalishvili is, are correct, further, most pundits including myself struggle to believe that the takedown defense needed to fend of ‘the machine’ may not be appropriately developed or refined in a several month period.

That said, as mentioned above O’Malley’s been preparing for this challenge for years and there will be no excuses if Merab is able to chain lighting takedown the slim striker on his way to another efficient victory.

O’Malley’s long frame and the grappling acumen Sean’s acquired over the last several years will need to be put into much better practice in this rematch.

O’Malley Coach Tim Welch and the fighter fully understand how critical distance control and take down defense will be in this battle especially after being in the cage with Merab.

They now understand the depth of Dvalishvili’s strength, cardio and most especially his will and that the sawed off Dagestani phenom cannot be underestimated.

Dvalishvili is simply an unrelenting chain wrestler who can compete for hours without showing the effects of tiring. However, in this rematch he gives away physical advantages in age, height and reach besides precision striking, kicking and overall athletic ability to the former champion O’Malley.

Dvalishvili’s best weaponry in any fight is his unrelenting forward wrestling pressure and his deeply seeded belief in his ability to wear any opponent out (See Merab’s last bout against Umar Nurmagomedov for that hard proof).

The Dagestani system/culture of mixed martial arts and the tight clan Dvalishvili trains with compete by not allowing opponents to breathe, think or react because they are constantly fending their pursuer off.

Pressing forward unrelentingly to engage, smother then defeat the opponent is bread into the Dagestani men from birth.

O’Malley’s plans must revolve around setting Merab up for flush fists and knees to the face by moving to create striking angles from a safe distance. O’Malley’s going to have to keep this fight on the feet then by all means available to him, evade the raging bull to maintain the spacing he needs to daze Dvalishvili.

Where O’Malley requires space to flow, Dvalishvili prefers to be affixed to his opponent in strait jacket form so he may force his adversary to spend so much energy defending the takedown, that they are sucked dry when they finally earn some space. Once in said space the challenge is to land strikes on the incoming opponent before getting tied up, pushed to the fence, or forced to the floor.

The Dagestani style of pressure wrestling simply forces opponents to exhaust all their energy defending the attack, from there the fight transitions to the best conditioned athlete.

Now a final point.

We saw Dvalishvili defeat O’Malley last fall, we also saw Merab clown around and take the final round off. I have seen Merab dive headfirst into a frozen lake and hurt himself, it is on tape.

While cardio, wrestling and recent momentum surely ride with Dvalishvili, youth, reach, height and especially fight IQ do not. Those fighting advantages belong to O’Malley.

Let us not forget O’Malley won a couple rounds in that last battle and he was competing with a damaged labrum and little understanding of the actual force of Dvalishvili pressure.

Should Dvalishvili take O’Malley lightly in any manner, or should he err in fight strategy by believing he can simply run through the former champion then Merab could find himself looking up at the lights.

It is my judgement that O’Malley’s going to give us his best fighting performance to date. Will that effort be enough to earn his title back?

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -285

Kayla Harrison -650 vs. Julianna Pena +500 Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Title

Harrison is an Olympic gold medal winner in Judo, twice; she has trained with the male Dagestani fighters as habit and simply put she is a physical freak. Harrison competed some fifteen to twenty pounds higher than the 135 lbs, she will need to be able to make 135lbs. on the nose come Friday morning. This is no small detail and will be watched closely by yours truly.

Harrison is large, talented, and tough but she has show little ability to finish well rounded elite mixed martial artists which is what I do consider Pena to be.

Former champion Pena is a junk yard dog of a mixed martial artist. She is mean, well-conditioned and tough as a three-dollar steak. Brought up with kickboxing and supplemented with a purple belt in BJJ, Pena uses intelligence, experience, guile, and her downright nasty nature to eventually overwhelm opponents.

Should Harrison have a difficult cut and even if she does not, I do not believe we can simply overlook Pena’s ability to win this fight.

In my judgement there is well better than a 13.2% chance for Pena to win this fight based on the odds of Harrison -650.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Under -160

This Under opened -180 and I do agree with the lean from the market to the over in this bout.

Over 4.5Rds -160

See below parlay to the next bout…

Kevin Holland -265 vs. Vicente Luque +235 Welterweight (170lbs)

Feet fight!

This fight comes down to the feet, simply put.

In Vicente Luque we have a proud Brazilian warrior who has been competing against the elite in the welterweight division for the last decade.

A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva empower Luque to walk straight into the heat of battle understanding that should any opponent decide to plant and trade with him, his might and his power striking and his granite chin will earn him victory.

Luque struggles occur when he must move fluently to evade trouble or cut the cage off to initiate it. Luque’s a simple power striker designed to meet in the middle of the cage then ‘throw down.’

In Kevin Holland we get one of the most nimble, athletic mixed martial artists in the division. Holland’s a second-degree black belt in Kung Fu with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

In any fight, Holland is fluid, flashy, brash and a constant talker when he is dancing in space and peppering opponents with strikes from every appendage and angle.

In this fight he will be the younger fighter, the taller athlete by four inches and he will possess a six-inch reach advantage, all terrific advantages for a fight that is to take place standing.

Holland understands exactly how to apply his trade onto fighters who are unable to catch up to his fluidity of movement and effectively cut off the cage against him.

Holland’s trouble comes against heavy forceful grapplers/wrestlers who can clasp onto him, negate his ability to dance, drag him to the floor then dominate him.

Luque will find it extremely difficult to catch up with the more adroit, evasive, athletic, trash-talking Holland and as his frustration grows so too will Holland’s effectiveness from distance.

Holland -265 to Over 4.5 -160 Harrison/Pena 1u returns 1.24u

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC 316 there.

GambLou.com

Its Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Profitability

College World Series: The Greatest Show on Dirt

Hardball Fans the NCAA College baseball tournament is here.

This weekend sixty-four teams converge on sixteen college campuses to compete for entry into the 2025 College World Series.

Since a boy I have been attending this event and since a teen, wagering on it. I understand the nuances of the Park, the city, the wind and it’s dynamic effect on these games as well the teams, players and fans.

Over the course of the next three weeks a national title will be earned, and I can tell you that there are but eight to twelve teams that will be able to get that accomplished. Which teams are those?

Tap the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this page for details… releases go out Thursday PM the 30th May

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Investment Intel, Profitability

Advantage investing or Action man?

Today’s theme revolves around the discipline to pull the trigger on a bet when the advantage is yours…. DO NOT acquiesce and let the ‘Makers or the talking heads being paid by them talk you into making NFL wagers in June when camps have not even begun yet.

It’s May and we’re entering the dog days of summer investors.

Sportsbooks have posted NFL win totals and week one numbers to entice those who are not disciplined and are itching for action to wager now on any aspect of the NFL.

My word of caution is this.

Betting NFL win totals now is suicide….especially if one invests in over wagers then you simply hate your money.

Is it possible to plinco your way into advantage now?

Sure, but you tie up your money, then run the risk that injury, trade or some other unforeseen act may disrupt the team you have wagered on.  

Betting now means you are hoping… not handicapping.

Due Diligence, Selectivity, Money Management…. The fulcrum of bottom line profit in sports wagering!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC LV106 Burns vs. Morales: Holy Moises!

This week the UFC returns to its APEX for LV 106, a fight card that is currently scheduled for twelve fights. Prelims begin at 1pm PT with the main card dropping 4pm PT.

There are only three fights with athletes weighing 170 lbs. or more on this event and while there is little name recognition for many fight fans, we will have athletes competing in this production arriving from Brazil (ten athletes) Ecuador, Scotland, Cuba, Nigeria, and Uzbekistan.

Both the main event and co main event are lined prohibitively in favor of the favorite but there are other battles on this card that I believe offer bettors opportunity.

Last week I dropped the Muhammad/Fiorot parlay losing 1unit. This year’s results stand: 10-13 -3.70u

Michael Morales -750 vs. Gilburt Burns +575 Welterweight (170lbs) main event.

Twelfth ranked welterweight Michael Morales is young, strong, explosive, versed in both wrestling and Judo and has fight ending power in his strikes/kicks.

Morales has soared up the welterweight rankings after decimating all five of his UFC adversaries to date, but this fight represents a certain step up in class of opponent.

Morales has not faced the level of competition that his opponent Gil Burns has, nor does he possess the depth of championship experience that Burns does but what Morales lacks in experience and championship savvy he makes up for with an explosive, violent fighting arsenal.

In Gil Burns we have a thirty-eight-year-old Brazilian warrior decorated handsomely with a third-degree black belt in BJJ and complimented with a depth of experience catch wrestling and striking compliments of Henri Hooft.

Burns was a world class lightweight athlete who struggled mightily with the weight cut to 155lbs.

Now, in his late thirties he is forced to compete against men much younger, larger, and more explosive than he all advantages challenging for a veteran trying desperately to keep his position withing the division.

Burns mixed martial arts pedigree, his depth of championship experience and the elite level of foes he has faced in his career make him a reasonable barometer for the less experienced but rapidly ascending talent in Morales.

The current price on Morales is a bit too extreme yet it must be understood that while the experience and pedigree land with Burns, the UFC has been allowing younger ascending fighters do their roster cutting for them.

I believe the Burns approach must be to smother Morales striking by rushing into him, grappling/pressing him, and then immediately trying to drag him to the ground where he is more dangerous.

At thirty-eight and after waging war in the UFC for some ten plus years against absolute elite fighters between two divisions, it is reasonable to think that Burns will have his hands full with this dangerous Ecuadorian athlete.

Morales for his part is going to try to maintain distance, remain measured and with premeditation, try to knock the block off Burns shoulders with an array of strikes/elbows/kicks as Morales understands that striking is his advantage and grappling with Gil could prove extremely dangerous.

This total is lined 3.5Rds under -120 currently.

I will look at the props once released for angles on this most obtusely lined main event.

Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)

Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for his third UFC battle.

He is a chiseled and heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.

Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted quickly.

Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue however is that Bellato is offensive and has yet to refine a strike defense that allows a whopping 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition!

In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev.

Craig is also a large man however his body type falls more under ‘dadbod’ than sculpted or chiseled. His striking is inept for this level of mixed martial arts as it is his prowess in grappling/submission ability that has gotten Craig into the organization and onto this fight Saturday.

Fascinating about this co main three round war and the difference in fighter ability is that Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig while these men are standing. For Craig, should he be able to ground the Bear sized Brazilian he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker especially if the fight gets past round one.

Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?

I lean to Craig.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -135

Mairon Santos -130 vs. Sodiq Yusuff +110 Featherweight (145lbs.)

On March 8th Santos was awarded a decision in a fight that he absolutely did not earn against Frances Marshall. We had Marchall in the points handicap thus winning that wager but the straight bet on Marshal as a decent dog was stolen from investors by the ineptitude of the judging that usually rears its grotesque head sometimes unexpectedly during each fight event.

Now the twenty-four-year-old Santos gets the quick turnaround to compete in the UFC for the third time this weekend.

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Santos, who is undefeated brings superior footwork, power striking and high volume to his opponents. Realizing a +1.81 significant striking advantage has served Santos well to date, however the forward pressure applied to him in that last fight from Marshall should provide Santos’ opponent with a simple plan for success in this fight. Forward pressure!

Yusuff is a grizzled UFC veteran of nine UFC battles. He has realized a 6-3 tally during that span and those three losses, they were against elite, top ranked fighters in the division in Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza and most recently Diego Lopes.

Those losses add a premium to Yusuff’s resume as I handicap it because those confrontations with the elite of the division are the foundation for refining one’s overall skills and development as a world class mixed martial artist.

Yusuff strikes using angles to enhance precision. He holds a positive significant strike differential over previous opponents of 1.25 significant strikes per round and the Yusuff strikes are power based. Yusuff is the busier striker between these two and he is the more powerful striker as well.

Yusuff, a blue belt in BJJ arrives off a loss to top ranked fighter Diego Lopes, to which there is no shame. He returns to the octagon focused and eager to jump into the top fifteen of the division with an impressive victory here.

Yusuff is the more complete fighter even though the twenty-four-year-old Santos will hold youth and speed/quickness advantages in this fight.

In summary, Yusuff’s experience, his well-rounded fight arsenal, and the fact that he’s competed against the elite of the division force me to dive on Yusuff as an underdog here like a fumble in the Superbowl!

Yusuff +110

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with all my final releases for this fight card enclosed. Access it at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fighting and thank you for reading!

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Ring that Belal

The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.

This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.

As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.

On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.

So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.

There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.

Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.

Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.

A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.

In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.

What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.

Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.

At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.

Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.

Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.

Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.

Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.

JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.

While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.

The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.

Muhammad -180

This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.

Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200

Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.

Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.

Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.

It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.

Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.

I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.

Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310

Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u

Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)

Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!

Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.

Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.

The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.

I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.

Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

All Circa pricing

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, Uncategorized

Kentucky Derby: Brutha Shue spew’s for Lou

My Brother Shue, a big brother/role model since 1977 University of Arizona days, returns again this year to offer GambLou.com Nag enthusiasts angles on the fastest two minutes in sports, The Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the breakdown Shue (in black ink) sent with his permission to share!

Hey bro – here’s my take, almost final unless one of my nags bail, here we go:

First, there have been two defections, the #4, RODRIGUEZ and the #10, GRANDE have been scratched and BAEZA #21 is in and he will be ridden by Flavian Prat.

The track and weather for Louisville looks to be sloppy, just as it was for the Kentucky Oaks.  We’ll need a hot pace in the Derby so in order for my closers to have a shot.

Attached are my final numbers for the Derby. (Shue included many charts which I did not publish in this column)

My opinion hasn’t changed since the PP draw – I’m still on #17 SANDMAN (6-1), but my fear with him, is that as he comes from almost dead last, and as he circles that final turn 8, 9 paths wide, he’ll be lugging in, as he likes to do, and perhaps get DQ’d a spot or two for interference.

#18 PUBLISHER (30-1) will effort to pass ten or so rivals to jet to the lead, and Steve Asmussen will win his first Kentucky Derby! (Shue’s met Steve Assmussen several times and is a big fan so take that with a grain o salt)

I also like #3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1).  Not a fan of synthetic to dirt, but he has, apparently, taken to the dirt pretty well.  Although never really raced in ‘hot’ company before, just maybe sitting way back, he won’t be noticed and then Machado pushes the button on the final turn and off he goes.  He could surprise for sure.

#8 JOURNALISM (3-1) will be in my exotics.  You just cannot ignore his closing times.  My worry on him is that in his last three races he’s only been in company with four other runners.  And the Derby comes with mucho traffico!  He will stalk the leaders IMO and stay close, hoping to get a smooth trip.

I am also going to include  the #17, SOVERIGNTY.  He is also a deep closer who has an excellent shot to win.

I think the pace will be hot, as in 22 & change if not quicker.  I mean, there are literally 5 nags who like and need the front, the 1, 4, 5, 12 & 20, geez!  No walking the dog up front on Saturday IMO.

For me, I take a cautious approach to trifecta’s on derby day so I’ll use a $1.00 6 nag Tri box for $120.00

3-7-8-14-17-18

Unlikely yet fun…

Thanks Shue, I love ya man

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Des Moines Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Nickal plated nine trigger

Des Moines, IA. hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo event. This slate has twelve scheduled bouts to be held in the large octagon in front of a crowd full of voracious Iowa fight fans.

Besides three regional/local fighters competing on this card, we will also be privileged enough to watch athletes shipping in from Norway, The Netherlands, Wales, and Vietnam to compete in the heartland so getcha popcorn ready!

Last week we earned two units to bring digital results to 10-11, -1.45u to date. Let us keep the momentum flowing into Des Moines!

Cory Sandhagen -455 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +365 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Figueiredo, after having left the flyweight division for the Bantamweight division, is ranked fifth after going 1-1 in two bouts against athletes in the division’s top fifteen.

Fighting professionally since 2012 Figueiredo sports a depth of UFC experience, an aggressive, power based striking acumen and a black belt in BJJ. He is well rounded, durable and with a victory here could elevate himself into title consideration and the stacked division’s top five.

In Sandhagen, however, Figgy has drawn one bad card.

Sandhagen is in his prime at thirty-three years of age and his four-year youth edge coupled with a two-inch reach and six-inch height advantage together provide him great striking benefits. Sandhagen, a man that trains in Denver’s elevation is himself a brown belt in BJJ so together, his size, his fight weaponry and his depth of UFC experience competing against this divisions top five together force me to regard Sandhagen as a legitimate favorite in this bout and a candidate for the next title shot should he defeat Figueiredo.

Sandhagen will rely upon his fluidity of movement, his length and guile to keep the incoming Brazilian slugger in space where the Sandhagen offensive fight arsenal is most effective.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over

Mason Jones -550 vs. Jeremy Stephens +425 Lightweight (155lbs)

Des Moines native Stephens comes back to the UFC to fight in his own back yard for a couple reasons. One, because he will help pack the gym with locals as well, he will do in this fight what he does in all his fights… and that is to provide forward pressing, offensive striking violence.

Stephens at thirty-eight still has the will, the fortitude and the aggression to compete in the world’s largest fighting organization but it’s his fight skills, his ability to withstand a flush fist to the face and his cardio that together make him susceptible to any true young ascending athlete.

In Jones, Stepehen’s gets such an ascending talent. Jones is tough as iron with a granite jaw, he has a well-rounded fight arsenal and packs profuse power in his hands.

On the floor for a roll or on the feet to force his adversary into retreat, Jones, who has been away from the organization to improve his skills (a scary thought) should absolutely pulverize Stephens in this fight.

I believe Jones’ approach will be to ground the midwestern mauler then reign ground and pound upon him in unrelenting fashion.

When the bell for round one rings you best be watching this fight because these men will each look to disintegrate the other.

Total in this fight:   1.5Rds Over -120

Meisha Tate -135 vs. Yana Santos +115 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Santos has had two fights since 2023 after having a child. She is 1-1 in those bouts. She enters this fight understanding that the Meisha Tate name can propel her into the divisions top fifteen with a win or find her free falling down the lady’s bantamweight rankings should she be defeated.

Santos has been the more active athlete though each of these ladies enters off considerable time off. For Tate however, her wrestling acumen coupled with her championship pedigree force me to regard the opening price on this fight of a pick-em as flawed.

Currently Tate stands -135 and it is my handicap that her aggressive wrestling and forward pressing attack will be enough to quell the journeyman-like skills possessed by Santos.

The total in this pillow fight is lined 2.5Rds over -400 so a decision seems more than likely here.

Tate via decision is a strong consideration here but props are not yet released so we will use…

Tate -135

1u to return .74u

Friday at midday PT my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off four straight winning weeks, so the time is now to jump in for investment advice.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business