Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast: UFC Muhammad vs. Bonfim releases

Fight Enthusiasts

Forgive me for having to post this week’s ‘Bout Business Podcast on the webpage.

The GambLou.com webpage does add a tremendous amount of flexibility when something goes unexpected or haywire around GambLou World HQ.

In any case, no breakdowns this week only releases and I’ll update all future wagers etc. next week when the BBP returns.

In last week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast we made the following parlay wager that is alive into the White House card:

Yadong/Pavlovich/Pereira +160 2u for 3.2u

Now let’s add this:

Allen -185 parlay to Gane -118 2u

Gane fights next week at the White House card

That parlay returns +185 so our wager is 2u for 3.90u.

Should Allen win (and I believe he does very well in this matchup despite the market moves to Edmen) then we will own Perriera for 2.0u to earn 3.20u AND Gane 2.0u to earn 3.90u.

Brendan Allen is going to ground Shahbazyan early then dominate…

Let’s earn:

Muhammad -110 2u

Chairez +115 1u

McGhee -455 parlay to Luna +110 1u returns 1.57u

That’s four wagers with an investment of 6u. LFG!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV118 Muhammad vs. Bonfim: Belal bottom blues

The Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas is the host for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.

The fight slate consists of twelve fights to be waged in the Apex’s 25’ octagon and in front of a limited group of attendees.

Of the twelve fights, seven take place at 115, 125 and 135 pounds and only three will be waged at weight classes 170lbs and above.

It’s becoming clear that APEX events host lesser know personalities and smaller bodied fighters which surely, by the numbers reduces the opportunity for violent finishes.

There are nine US fighters populating the card with thirteen athletes having to travel into the states from out of the country. Three fights do feature a fighter from the US who competes against a combatant that must travel into the USA in order to cut weight then compete.

Main event participant Belal Muhammad, Jordan Leavitt, and Chelsea Chandler are the fighters holding some home advantage as each of their foes must travel in from Brazil in order to compete. Advantage US athletes.

Last week we used Alex Perez in his fight against Su Mudaerji as a slight chalk, but the bout was stopped after a damaging kick to the jewels by Su rendered Perez unable to continue.

We’ll tote our momentum forward into this slate of battles.

Belal Muhammad -125 vs. Gabriel Bonfim +105 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Bonfim, one of two brothers competing in the UFC is a fighter with complete skills though no belts, ribbons, or accolades.

Bonfim is a power striker/kicker who is athletic, fluid afoot and highly dangerous for he packs profuse power behind his strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees.

In this battle Bonfim will hold a substantial eight year youth advantage to go with his height and leg reach edge. Bonfim’s grappling/wrestling is pronounced and together with his aggression/size/power makes him a matchup nightmare for almost every welterweight on the roster.

In former champion Belal Muhammad we have a world class wrestling talent. Muhammad has lost his last two fights to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, but he was competitive in each despite the fact that he fought an unintelligent title fight against JDM choosing to strike with a striker as opposed to grinding him out on the canvas with his advance wrestling ability.

In his fight against Machado Garry, Muhammad was simply unable to catch up to the nimble, deft moving Irishman. When forging forward in his deliberate unrelenting wrestling style Muhammad can make a strong motivated adversary eventually look overwhelmed, lost, weak and timid.

When the bell for this fight rings I look for Muhammad, who has not competed in the cage since November of 2025 to immediately turn to his advantage in almost any matchup….his wrestling.

As I have mentioned several times in this column, world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ and while Bonfim is hardly a world class jiu-Jitsu specialist he does fold the specialty into his power striking.

Bonfim will to strive to maintain appropriate distance in order to unleash power hooks, crosses, and knees onto Muhammad as Muhammad forcefully grinds his way inside the pocket to engage in his wrestling.

Muhammad must be able to persevere his way through the furious early Bonfim fire of fisticuff  in the early stages of this fight for that is when Bonfim’s ferocity and striking acumen are most effective.

When Muhammad manages this bout into the third round and beyond we will witness a change of dominance for Bonfim’s burst will begin to wane while the Muhammad’s forward pressure and top control will transition this fight from a relatively competitive one to a relatively noncompetitive one for Muhammad’s ultimate advantage is his ability to never tire and become more forceful as the fight extends.

Yes Muhammad is thirty-seven and giving up eight years to this young Bonfim bomber, but Muhammad’s cardio, his wrestling and his mental strength are all world class assets that will allow him to separate himself from Bonfim as this fight enters the third round and beyond.

This is a terrific spot for Belal Muhammad

Muhammad -120 2u

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -190

Strong lean Over especially if lined 3.5Rds.

Brendan Allen -220 vs. Edmen Shabazyan +180 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main

Shahbazyan, a Black belt in Shotokan Karate is a power striker who trains in Las Vegas at Extreme Couture.

Shahbazyan is tall for the weight class and though he is ill equipped to deal with adversaries displaying world class wrestling/grappling he is well armed to undergo slugfests that take place on the feet as his height, reach and distance control are exemplary.

In Brendan Allen we have a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Allen is well balanced as a fighter, but his striking is not to the level of his world class grappling. When Allen chooses to transition his fights from feet to floor his results are outstanding.

When Allen is unable to transition bouts to the basement then his elementary striking becomes an obstacle to overcome. His 47% strike defense and negative strike differential per minute of fighting exemplify the need for Allen to immediately engage in the clinch then transition fights to the floor.

So in this battle we have a striker with relatively inept grappling/wrestling skill taking on a fighter in Allen who is average on the feet but world class on the mat.

Once this fight begins it will be Shahbazyan who will look to touch up the feisty Allen as he works his way into the pocket to clasp.

Meanwhile Allen will look to tackle Shabaz an and ground him as soon a practically possible for on the floor and even worse, off his back Shahbazyan is no match for Allen.

Allen’s been training in elevation with Trevor Whittman in Denver, which is a direct tell that he is working diligently to improve his striking as well continue to develop his cardio.

This is a great spot for Brendan Allen who will control this fight in the second and third rounds by utilizing his grappling prowess, he just needs to manage that first round when Shahbazyan comes out fists flying!.

Allen opened -350 and Shahbazyan money has moved the line to its current price of Brendan Allen -220.

As Roger Dalty sang for the Who, ” I call that a bargain.”

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -185 as well there are some 2.5 Under -165 in the market. Over 1.5 seems a sound consideration.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms; we’ve been on fire lately. Catch the final releases for this card there or at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the

Gamblou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, Profitability

Puck Profitability posted

Here are GambLou Puck Passion results to date with all future wagers listed:

To date:  37-30  +7.42u 19% ROI

Open Futures:

Carolina to win East  5.2u to earn 2.0u

Carolina Cup +155  2.0u to earn 3.10u

Golden Knights Cup +210  2u to earn 4.20u

The above numbers include the recent Wedgewood and McKinnon Conn Smythe losses.

Conn Smythe releases that remain active:

Stankoven 19/1    .20u

Hart 75/1              .10u

Freddy 19/1           .20u

Marner 12/1           .25u

Dobes 18/1              .20u

next puck drop is Friday 5pm PST

GambLou.com

It’s Business

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, UFC

UFC Macao Yadong vs. Figueiredo: Getting Figgy wid it

UFC Fight Night Macao takes place this week in the wee hours PST from the eastern hemisphere. Preliminary action begins 1AM PST with the main card dropping at 4am PST.

This fight slate is scheduled for fifteen bouts two of which (Road to the UFC bouts) take place in the days prior to Saturday. For handicapping purposes, this column focuses only on the athletes already competing in the UFC so we will offer no opinion on the RTUFC bouts.

Of the thirteen bouts on this card all feature a fighter from the general vicinity competing against a fighter from outside the hemisphere. Travel can and does affect weight cuts and athlete performances.

Also of note is that there is only one fight with the favorite lined under -205 which signifies a card erected not only for finishes but also one designed to allow the regional fighters to shine in front of their brethren.

Throughout this card are premium examples of regional fighters being awarded favorable matchups which ‘should’ allow them to shine. This is a deliberate effort by the UFC, handpicking opponents to allow the regional athletes to shine and therefore fuel the UFC fire in that particular corner of the world.

Five fights are going to be held at the larger weight classes of 170lbs. and above as well there are several fights featuring athletes with a five year or greater youth advantage. A six year youth advantage provides the younger fighter a 62+% win advantage and that win rate grows as the age gap widens!

Song Yadong -600 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +500 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Brazilian Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion who at thirty-eight years old is no longer able to make the weight for flyweight and must now compete against naturally larger, stronger, and younger modern stalwarts competing at 135lbs.

1-3 in his last four bouts, Figueiredo has competed against the elite of the division but his approach in those fights has been one of ‘survival’ as opposed to a mad Brazilian fighter looking to take out any opponent set before him.

Figueiredo’s lack of size/strength is a factor against these younger, larger, faster men as well his skills have waned substantially.

Figueiredo enters this fight with a negative .74 significant strike ratio per minute, and his takedown offense as well his takedown defense has eroded.

Figueiredo is a name, he’s been relevant in the UFC, but he is only useful now as a steppingstone for viable top UFC bantamweights.

In Yadong we have a Chinese fighter who has trained for years in America with Uriah Faber at Team Alpha Male. Yadong’s wrestling has evolved greatly in his last several years at Alpha Male which supplements his already forceful boxing and Muay Thail prowess.

Yadong will be the physically larger man in the cage, he’s a decade the younger fighter as well he will be the more adroit, athletic man in the cage.

Yadong’s 3-2 in his last five fights losing only to ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan, both top three fighters in the division.

When this fight begins Yadong will forcefully attempt to engage Figueredo with striking. His single point of focus will be to ungluing the Brazilian and force a stoppage for his Countrymen.

Figueiredo has had injuries affect his performances in two of his last three bouts which is the age and amount of combat attrition he has accrued over the years speaking.

Should Figueiredo attempt to actually engage Yadong and make this a fight then it is my judgement that this fight ends in a Yadong TKO however, should Figgy decide to try and ‘survive’ and make it to the final bell then this fight turns into a snoozer which no one, the UFC, the fans, nor the Yadong camp wish to experience.

If Figgy comes to fight, it will be a finish for Yadong.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -125

Alex Perez -135 vs. Su Mudaerji +110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Let’s break down the only competitively priced bout of the slate!

Su is an unranked Chinese athlete now training in California, so he did have to travel to get to Macao. That mentioned, he should have the accommodations to be able to spend plenty of time in Macao to naturalize to the time, climate etc.

Su is primarily a striker. His early influences in fighting came from childhood where he specialized in San Da which is a Chinese kickboxing derivative.

Su’s striking is his specialty and while his long, lean, body frame is a perfect temple for his striking style the fact is that Su’s primarily a singularly dimensioned fighter as well an accumulation striker for his power is basically a non-factor.

Su’s wrestling/grappling prowess is inadequate at best. Those wishing to Smother Su in the cage immediately apply wrestling/grappling pressure to take the striker from a relative comfort zone (standing in space) to one of complete incapacity (clinched up then on the canvas).

 

In Alex Perez we have the eleventh ranked flyweight on the roster. Perez’s holds solid wrestling acumen, and his grappling is also developed.  Perez can fight on the feet as well as he has seven fights won via KO/TKO. Perez is a complete mixed martial artist who at thirty-four will be four years older than Su in this battle.

While Su will sport height, youth and reach advantages, it is Perez who has been in the octagon with a more skilled set of adversary as well the completeness of his fighting game allows him to be able to defeat fighters outside of the rankings especially one’s that arrive without a well-rounded fight arsenal.

It is when he competes against the top eight of the division where Perez struggles as he has lost to only the ranked of the flyweight division.

Perez experience, his level of competition faced, and his complete fight acumen differentiate these two who were priced at pick-em when this fight opened.

Now the price on Perez has risen slightly to -140.

Perez -140 (circa)

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms as well on the GambLou.com front page. Catch all my final releases there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

McGregor returns? Not so fast my friends!

So Max Holloway is going to be rewarded for his company loyalty by being privy to the payday associated with fighting Conor McGregor.

While on the surface this is exciting news to many, the reality is that there are serious unknowns leading into this proposed fight and most of the risk and penalty will be borne by Holloway, then the UFC and finally the fans.

Let me explain.

McGregor has not fought competitively since 2021 and then he was a 155 pound lightweight.

Since that last competition McGregor has pleased us with the following public spectacles:

In 2018 at UFC 223 he attacked a bus full of fighters, then followed that up with assault/rape charges in 2019, 2021 and 2023. Later in 2023 another famed incident with the Miami Heat mascot gained the manically McGregor more dubious fame and notoriety.

McGregor’s erratic behavior, his slathering appearances when in public as well some unsolicited nude photo charges in 2025 paint the picture of a man who was born with nothing but talent, who then skyrockets into fame and riches on said talent then self-destructs on the excess that his natural physical gifts brought him.

Now the UFC needs a spark, and they turn to the magic money elixir that is McGregor.

The question I pose is this: who knows how serious McGregor takes this fight?

It’s scheduled for 170lbs. but who is to say that upon the last days of the fight that McGregor’s lifestyle and moxie don’t allow him to roll into this fight at 178 or 180lbs thus forcing Max, the ever professional company man already stretching to take this fight at 170 into even further disadvantage by trying to compete above the 170 pounds where he has never really competed before.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the UFC is selling it’s soul to please stakeholders and they’ll pull anything to get a leg up…..even taking advantage of a naïve fan base to sell them a ‘name’ as opposed to a legitimate athlete that can compete effectively in the cage.

For Max Holloway I only hope McGregor honors what he says and commits to, but I have seen this movie before, and I will believe this fight takes place at 170lbs as scheduled only upon seeing it.

Betting this fight under the assumption that it takes place at 170lbs. is a foolish endeavor people.

I advise waiting and watching the leadup to this bout because the dynamic that happens in the prefight weeks will more than likely overshadow what happens on fight night when an overserved and underprepared McGregor steps into the cage.

I absolutely do not believe this fight takes place at 170lbs. but if it does I’ll likely be very active in my approach to betting this bout.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV117 Allen vs. Costa: Palomino club’d?

After a stunning UFC 328, the Meta APEX hosts this week’s LV 117, an event populated with thirteen bouts and featuring a highly international set of athletes.

Sixteen Foreign fighters from thirteen varying counties arrive to compete in the smaller APEX octagon in front of a diminutive gathering of fans.

There are only a couple of slight age differences in these matchups as well there exist only four battles with combatants weighing 170lbs. or above so this fight card may feature fighters with a bit more skill than power.

Last week this column went 1-1 for a half unit win….we march on this week with the understanding that next week the UFC takes a break before traveling to Macao for the Yadong vs. Figueiredo fight slate.

 

Arnold Allen -160 vs. Melquizael Costa +140 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Twelfth ranked Costa trains at world famous ‘Chute Boxe’ fight club in Brazil. A brown belt in BJJ with a black belt in Muay Thai, Costa brings a combination of physical size, mixed martial arts expertise, and tremendous momentum into this bout.

Costa bumbled to a 1-2 UFC tally before winning his last six fights and against a set of UFC adversary that was stepped up for each new battle.

Costa is a southpaw with a diversity of attack, an aggressive nature and finishing ability as four of his seven victories in the UFC have come via finish including his last which was an impressive TKO over Dan Ige, a man who had never been finished prior.

Costa, twenty-nine is in the prime of his career and he is rolling into this fight with tremendous belief and swagger.

In the opposing corner of the octagon stands seventh ranked featherweight Arnold Allen.

Allen, an Englishman now training at Tristar gym in Montreal is an equipped wrestling talent with sound striking skill won his first nine bouts in the UFC however, in his last four he is 1-3.

A closer look at those last four Allen fights shows that his losses were all competitively fought and against elite top five ranked athletes in the division Holloway, Silva, and Evloev.

This fight opened a dead pick-em but by yesterday (Monday 5-11) the widespread price on Allen stood -190, today his price is -165.

We may be seeing public money (via the recency bias attached to Costa) arrive for the Brazilian as he has been dynamic lately while Allen’s results against the absolute elite in this division may be offering us a discount on the more experienced athlete/fighter.

Allen’s wrestling, his base form of fighting will expose Costa’s BJJ but how these two fair on the feet should be worthy of watching. It’s my take that Costa will attempt to use his height/reach in a stand up affair while Allen will want to tackle the Brazilian and gain top control in order to hold dominance in this fight.

Allen -160 is a buy now however those who choose to monitor this line closely may be able to gain a few extra cents on the Allen price by waiting and monitoring which is exactly what I will do so grab Allen -165 or better and good luck!

Allen is now -130 I hope you readers waited!!!

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -150

Strong lean Over

Khaos Williams -130 vs. Nicolay Veretennikov +110 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Khaos Williams is 2-2 in his last four bouts, he’s lost his last two fights and now looks to try to bounce back after a disappointing defeat to ultra short notice replacement athlete Andreas Gustaffson in June of last year.

Williams packs great power in his strikes/kicks, but his strike defense has earned him a negative significant strike advantage of .45 significant strikes per minute of fight time. Williams is a furious paced fighter who hurls hammers but unfortunately accepts incoming fire also.

A blue belt in BJJ, Williams holds very little wrestling acumen as evidenced by his zero percent take down statistic and his 51% take down defense. I might add that in his last several fights Williams has not had to compete against anyone known to hold heavy or even moderate wrestling ability so 51% is very concerning.

In to fight Williams is Russian vice grip wrestler/striker Veretennikov fighting out of Kings MMA in California, so travel is not a factor for the Russian in this fight.

Veretennikov is going to be giving away slight reach to the power striking Williams, but he is the taller fighter, he is older by four years as well he arrives off and impressive win over journeyman fighter Nico Price.

Veritennikov sports a negative significant strike differential per minute also while throwing less volume than his adversary Williams, so we have a couple fighters who attack but also receive!

Wrestling may well be the difference in this fight as Williams struggles when fights hit the floor especially if he is underneath and Veretennikov shows up to this battle equipped with that formidable Russian wrestling/sambo base, solid striking ability, and great durability.

Should Williams be able to manipulate this fight into a standing affair then it is my judgement that the fight will be ultra close however, Veretennikov’s wrestling, his forceful, forward pressure and take down dominance, all highly underrated, will be of central importance in keeping him in control of this bout.

Both of these men need a win desperately and both are on the cusp of the organization so we will witness two motivated, focused, men compete to the depths of their souls utilizing every skill available to them to get their arm raised in victory.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast (awarded as one of the top 25 MMA podcasts recently) drops across all podcast platforms and is available at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy LV 117.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 328 Strickland vs. Chimaev: Chechen choke?

This week Newark, NJ hosts UFC 328, a thirteen fight event utilizing the large octagon in front of some of New Jersey’s finest fight fanatics.

Seven of the thirteen bouts will be waged between men weighing 170lbs. and larger. Those large men provide the highest finish rates to be found in the organization.

Name recognition and dynamic stylistic matchups await viewers. The production’s early prelims begin at 2pm PST, preliminary actions starts at 4pm PST then finally the main card which drops at 5pm PST.

Six US fighters hold the advantage of facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete, as well there are three bouts where the youth advantage is greater than 6 years presenting those athletes with a 65% win rate.

Digital results (8-9-1 -2.0u) took a unit hit last week as my release of Jack Della Maddalena was a disaster. That was as large a miss as I can recall making.

Time to bounce back.

Khamzat Chimaev -600 vs. Sean Strickland +470 Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Middleweight champion Chimaev is a three-time Swedish national champion in freestyle wrestling. He is also decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Chimaev has competed in and dominated two division’s in the UFC and threatens to make it three.

This Russian gangster is incredibly strong, his unrelenting, forceful forward aggression is admired by other decorated world class wrestlers/grapplers, and his striking is slowly beginning to evolve though he does not need to employ that aspect of MMA into his repertoire simply because no one can stop his dominant pressure wrestling.  

Inactivity and cardio are the only critiques one may thrust upon Chimaev as he has struggled in the past with visas and access into the USA which covers his inactivity.

Past fights with welterweights (170lbs.) Gil Burns and Kamaru Usman lead me to believe that Chimaev’s gas tank could be suspect as Burns and Usman both are welterweight athletes that forced Chimaev into decision fights.  

Number three ranked and former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is Chimaev’s foe this weekend and it should be added that these two have trained together prior just to add some depth and a sprinkle of hatred to this matchup.

Strickland is the only fighter on the UFC roster that can match the maniacal behavior/process of Chimaev both inside and outside of the cage. Strickland’s the well more versed mixed martial artist between these two as his striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio are all developed and complete.

Strickland, who is a full grown middleweight fighter, will strive to keep the blitzing Chimaev at bay with movement, take down defense and his own brand of fists, elbows, and occasional kicks.

Strickland’s focus will be to compete with Chimaev for the first two rounds of this fight with the goal of forcing Chimaev to expend his cardio/energy. If Strickland can weather the first ten minutes of this battle then he may get to turn the tables on Chimaev, a fighter who is known to slow as fights progress.

At the bell for round three, Chimaev will have to deal for another three rounds with a threat in Strickland who can actually get stronger as this fight progresses.  

Chimaev opened -400 for this fight and it’s my judgement that this fight will be well more competitive than any we have seen Chimaev undertake simply because of Stricklands fortitude, his natural middleweight body size, and his ability to out crazy anyone in the organization including Chimaev. .

Strickland’s going to need to weather a furious first two rounds then he’ll look to turn the tables on this monster and bully this bully.

Chimaev has the reputation of being a devastator but those Usman and Burns fights tell me that Strickland has everything he needs to be able to compete with this man on par.

Many fight pundits suspect that Strickland is simply Chimaev’s next victim, and that may be the case, but I find it also quite plausible that Strickland, a guy completely unafraid of anything will be able to reproduce that effort his last fight out against Fluffy Hernandez.

With that type of performance, Strickland can not only compete with Chimaev but take this fight well into the deep championship waters. There is surely a path for Strickland winning this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120 FanDuel

Over 2.5Rds. 2.40u to earn 2.0u

Tatsuro Taira -160 vs. Joshua Van +140 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Van, twenty-four is a highly athletic volume striker who has cage intelligence, deft footwork, precision striking and an abundance of power in his strikes.

A blue belt in BJJ Van’s grappling and wrestling are mainly unpronounced as he does his talking with his hands and on his feet for Josh Van has a combination of athleticism, speed, precision, and bad intention in everything he throws upon opponents. Van is a gifted striker indeed.

In Tatsuru Taira we have a Japanese grappler extraordinaire decorated with a purple belt in BJJ. Taira’s going to be the taller, longer athlete in the cage who will also hold a five inch reach advantage.

Taira’s blueprint for success revolves around him taking Van to the canvas while Van’s focus will be to absolutely keep this fight standing.

At the end of the day Taira, twenty-six and gaining momentum with each fight will get Van to the floor and when that occurs it will mark the beginning of the end of this fight as I handicap it.

Taira opened -185 so I’ll gladly take the discount being offered on him currently.

Taira -160 1u

Bobby King Green -300 vs. Jeremy Stephens +250 (Lightweight 155lbs.)

Forty year old Jeramy Stephens arrives to Newark to participate in an epic battle that should have been waged years ago. Stephens, a purple belt in BJJ employs little BJJ in his fights for Stephens is a single mindedly focused finisher who used the bludgeoning effect of his elbow, fists, and kicks to demolish opponents.

Stephens has twenty nine career victories of which twenty-one have come via finish.

Stephens’ power and aggression remains but his footwork, strike evasion and cardio have long since left him. He’ll look to win this battle via the KO.

In King Green we have a thirty-nine year old adversary to Stephens who while on par with Stephens on age, far exceeds him when it comes to athleticism, fleet footedness, strike evasion, and precision striking.

Green does not possess the natural striking power of Stephens but as far as every other measurable aspect of mixed martial arts, Green’s fighting acumen eclipses Stephens.

This should be an exciting fight that will resemble a bull fight with King Green as matador and Stephens as the raging bull.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Lean over

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch it across all podcast platforms on at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s ‘Bout Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast final releases

Due to a personal situation, I will be unable to record this week’s ‘Bout Business Podcast for UFC Perth.

The Good news however is that my final releases may be accessed by continuing to read this column. Having a webpage for backup is really nice for unfortunate situations like this.

I’ll cover Future bets next week. Balance to date is 21-37 -9.36 but we hold a multi unit open parlay to Chimaev at +100 as well a 2.39u potential return on a fight this week.

Here are the releases:

JDM 1.60u to return 2.39u he is the second leg of two different parlays where the first leg of each bet won.

Parlay: Steele -175/Malkoun -3.5pts -425; 1.05u to earn 1.0u

Parlay: Shamil Gaziev +3.5 +100/Josh Hokit -310 (upcoming white house card) 1u returns 1.65u

Parlay: Dariush/Salkilld starts 2 -125 to JDM/Prates starts round 2 -700 1.0u returns 1.06u

4.65u invested for potential 6.10u

LFG!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Perth Della Maddalena vs. Prates: Cigarette …Butt

Perth, Australia is the host city for this week’s UFC Fight Night Della Maddalena vs. Prates production. The card features twelve fights all populated with an Aussie athlete who will face an adversary that must travel from outside the Country into Australia to compete.

These fights drop at prime time in Perth while the US will tune into preliminary action at 1am PT Saturday while the main event drops at 4am PT. Aussie fight fans are rowdy when the fights are held at unreasonable hours in the early AM so when they can imbibe then take in the battles at prime time in Perth the scene is liable to be crazy!

The UFC will utilize the large cage as well of the twelve bouts seven feature welterweight (170lbs.) or larger men competing which should further fuel the rabid crowd in attendance looking for violence.

Last week Aljamain Sterling +130 proved once again the he is a legitimate threat to featherweight Champion Alex Volkanovski’s title belt when he defeated Youssef Zalal in dominant fashion. The question everyone awaits is will he finally get a chance at the title fight he has earned?

Digital results to date: 8-8-1  -1.0u

Carlos Prates -120 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Prates, currently ranked fifth in a very competitive division is a true character.

Not only is he one of the leaders of Team Fighting Nerds from Brazil but Prates, a chain smoking party boy is as dangerous in the octagon as he is deft on a dance floor.

Prates began his fighting career as a formidable Muay Thai striker. Then early in his youth he began to develop his Jui-Jitsu which provided Prates with a tremendous balance of fight ability for he is able to excel on the feet, pressed against the cage or on the canvas.

Prates, 6-1 in the UFC is long, tall, highly athletic, and very aggressive. His sole loss was three fights back against Ian Machado Garry. Since that setback he has earned decisive victories over fighters now freefalling out of the top fifteen in Geoff Neal and Leon Edwards.

In an ideal set up Prates’ adversary in any fight would choose to stand with him and try to bang it out on the feet.

In number one ranked JDM we have an Aussie scrapper who is extremely durable, highly athletic, and also decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Where Prates uses his length to set up his striking, JDM uses his aggressive forward pressing boxing to engage opponents.

JDM applies constant forward pressure to supplement his combination striking. Where Prates may have the power, JDM possesses the striking volume, forceful forward pressure and durability that will be the determining factor in this fight.

Provided JDM can back Prates up, then this fight becomes most favorable for him however, Prates flamboyant kicking, his flying knees and his own forceful striking will look to meet JDM center cage. From there the fighter backing the other combatant up will control this fight.

JDM has an edge in experience, he’s been in with the champion of the division as well he fights in front of his homies, so he derives advantage in those aspects of this fight.

This will be a classic long, tall striker striving to create damaging strike angles against a forward plodding, determined, workhorse of a bull looking to badger the Brazilian with constant pressure for fifteen minutes.

When this fight turns to the championship rounds it’s my judgement that JDM’s constant pressure, his body attack and his professionalism (he does not drink, smoke or joke during fight camps while Prates drinks, smokes and parties right up to fight time) together begin to take effect on a young athlete who is enamored with his many dynamics as a fighter but is a touch naïve about how to conduct himself leading into a championship level five round fight.

This will be a brilliantly contested fight for the first three rounds then at the bell to round four, JDM will separate his skills and effectiveness from Prates. It is not out of the question the eventually in this fight JDM separates Prates from his consciousness, if that occurs I expect it happens in the last couple rounds of this fight when the nectar and nicotine begin to affect the partyman.

Della Maddalena +100

Steve Erceg -340 vs. Tim Elliott +290 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Flyweight number eleven ranked Tim Elliott arrives to this bout off an injury layoff and a change in camps yet again. Elliott, now thirty-nine is coming off of two fights where he beat ranked fighters who were favored over him.

At his best Elliott is a fantastic grappler, he has a wealth of UFC experience as well he’s been in with the elite of the division for a decade now. Elliott’s greatest asset is his unorthodox approach to fighting for he is completely inconsistent with his movements and fights in a ‘herky-jerky’ style that often confounds and perplexes opposing athletes.

The concern I have for Elliott in this fight revolve around how well he can overcome his recent surgery (at his current age) as well the opponent the UFC has chosen for him should represent a great test.

That opponent is Australian fighter Steve Erceg. Erceg shot to the top of the flyweight rankings just after, as a debutant to the UFC he battled then champion Alexandre Pantoja to a decision loss over five rounds of championship battle.

Erceg competed next against top ranked flyweights Kai-Kara France and Brandon Moreno when he should have probably stepped back and improved his game further against less acute fighters as opposed to biting off more than he could chew so early in his UFC career.

Now after a victory over journeyman Ode’ Osbourne, he receives this test against the eleventh ranked Elliott in Perth.

Erceg is taller, longer and nine years younger than Elliott who travels across the world for this fight after recovering from a major surgery. While Elliott is game, unorthodox, and willing he does have to be able to ‘shuck and jive’ in order to evade incoming damage from Erceg in this fight.

So we have Elliott the more beguiling, savvy, cagey fighter taking on a larger, younger, motivated, well-rounded Erceg who fights in front of his brethren in Australia.

This seems like a tough situation for Elliott. Could the UFC be doing to Elliott and Dariush what they have been doing to other mature UFC athletes (see Gil Burns) in that they are allowing younger hungry fighter retire the aged older generation of UFC athlete.

Erceg should win this fight via one sided decision but at this price this fight is a pass.

Total in this fight 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and at GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases for UFC Perth there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV 116 Sterling vs. Zalal: Funk #49!

Back to the quaint confines of the UFC Meta APEX we go for this week’s UFC LV116, an event scheduled for thirteen bouts with athletes ranging in size from115lb. Strawweight ladies to the heavyweights where the weight limit is 266lbs.

This card is populated with relatively unrecognizable talent but there are a handful of matchups on the card that will be more than compelling.

There are four larger weight class clashes taking place at 170lbs. and greater as well there are seven fights with wide ranges between the combatants ages (fighters five years or more younger than their adversary win at a 64% clip, and that rate grows higher as the age gap widens!

The international cast of athletes arrive mostly from varying locations in the states however there are five fighters that must travel (Brazil and Equator) into the US to take on domestic athletes who do not have to endure global travel and the weight complexities that go with it.

Last week’s release of Canadian Mandel Nallo went down in flames as Jai Herbert finished the Canadian in short time.

We head into this card holding a 7-8-1 -2.35u tally.

Let’s Fight

Yousuff Zalal -155 vs. Aljamain Sterling +130 Featherweight (145lbs) main event

Seventh ranked featherweight Zalal arrives to this fight riding the momentum of winning five straight UFC battles.

Zalal has dynamic athleticism, he is nimble on his feet, fast, fluid, and frenetic when he needs to be while his cage generalship and strike defense are world class as evidenced by his 67% strike defense.

Zalal is decorated with a black belt in BJJ, but opponents must not regard him as singularly equipped for Zalal’s mixed martial arts weaponry is complete, well developed and is practiced with a great deal of ill intent.

Zalal’s stepping WAY up in class for this fight for his opponent is a former champion at 135lbs. and has looked forceful in his last two bouts.

For Aljo Sterling, this fight is but another test the UFC is putting him through because fighter traits like world class wrestling, dogged determination coupled with unending cardio are not the traits the organization wants to see its fighters take.

After all this is the age of Paramount, 100K fight bonus’s and anti-wrestling/grappling sentiment.

We understand that the UFC yearns for toe-to-toe, sledgehammer competitions where someone ends up quivering on the canvas. Unfortunately, world class wrestlers like Aljo do not provide the fans with that form of entertainment.

Despite Aljo’s propensity to be overlooked, his striking has developed and as always, his unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio, and his grip lock embraces are sophisticated and subtle enough to dominate anyone on the division.

Interestingly Zalal, twenty-nine will be the larger man in the cage Saturday and that is sure to force Aljo into even more forward pressing pressure wrestling for Sterling will not stand for any length of time on the outside with Zalal without blitzing him like a linebacker in the super bowl.

Aljo is now thirty-six but a man who has faced the absolute elite of two weight classes. He will force Zalal into defending his advances every second of the fight which will force Zalal to expend energy while simultaneously not being able to find the space/time to strike.

Aljo, like many practiced mixed martial arts insiders, understand that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ, so look for Aljo to immediately engage while Zalal will strive to find room to breathe, let alone earn this space to strike.

These two have trained together prior. They know one another well, which adds dynamic to this confrontation.

This fight will be tightly contested and while I hesitate to side with an athlete seven years the elder fighter, I must recognize who Sterling is, his experience and the fact that he has competed in many main events before while Zalal is in his first.
Sterling came -200 at open and now I can invest in him plus money?

Sterling +130 

Total in this bout: 4.5 Over -185

Strong lean over, strong lean to Sterling decision also.

Alexander Hernandez -125 vs. Rafa Garcia +105 Lightweight (155lbs)

Firefight!

Garcia is one tough, durable Mexican mixed martial artist who has an iron chin, unending cardio, and a blue belt in BJJ.

Garcia’s striking is based on volume, and he does possess accumulated power in his hands. The thing with Rafa is that when he fights standing, he is more than willing to take one in order to give one and in this matchup that may be dangerous.

Garcia’s plan in any fight is to tax the opponent with forward striking pressure then initiate his apt clinching, takedown strategy. Once in the clasp and/or on the mat Garcia works to suck the life out of opponents with his constant pressure wrestling/grappling.

Garcia’s completes 3.13 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time while being able to defend 76% of opponent takedowns. This means he often fights from top position.

Garcia’s opponent, Alex Hernandez takes this fight on the momentum of four straight wins, his latest a finish of Brazilian Diego Ferreira. Hernandez’s striking is his bread and butter.

Hernandez power is unusual but like Garcia, he is more than willing to receive one in order to unleash one. Hernandez negative .50 strike differential (per minute) is poor, but he overcomes getting flushed so often because of the tremendous power he packs in his shots.

This fight introduces fighters who are both entering with confidence and who are fighting for position for the victor of this fight see’s themselves in the top twenty of this stacked lightweight division.

Garcia will want to grapple and smear the floor with Hernandez while Hernandez will strive to keep this fight standing where he can attempt to maim the Mexican mauler.

Both men are confident in their application of their expertise, and both men stand to make substantial jumps in earning power with a victory Saturday night.

This fight will be highly competitive and it’s my take that it is likely to go to decision.

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds Over -220

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast, currently on a tear drops across all podcast platforms as well at GamgLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

GambLou.com

It’s Business