Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

Fight Night paris: Hooker vs. Parnasse: Nursultan of Swing

Paris, France is the host city for his week’s UFC Fight night production.

This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts highlighting an international set of combatants many of whom arrive to face the nine French athletes that will be competing on this slate.

Only five of the thirteen bouts are lined competitively, which is getting to be the case as the UFC continues to flood its roster with low end, unqualified and inexperienced athletes.

Last week favorites realized an 8-3 result pushing their results to a staggering 249-97-10 a 70% rate. Traditionally favorites win at about a 63% clip.

Regression? Let’s hope so, and soon.

Last week we banked the first leg of a two fighter parlay as Su Mudaerji won a decision against Alex Perez.

Su -215 in pocket provides readers with firm advantage on Arman Tsarukyan who is currently priced -380 (Tsarukyan fights Maurico Ruffy 9-18) as we hold Tsarukyan tickets at a net price of -115!

On to Paris

Dan Hooker + 400 vs. Salahdine Parnasse -500 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Parisian Parnasse makes a main event headline spot in his UFC debut.

Unusual as that appears, the fact is Parnasse arrives to the UFC fairly well credentialed after having earned two titles in KSW at featherweight and lightweight.

He is trained in boxing, BJJ and Mauy Thai and is a highly athletic fighter who uses movement, angles and grappling all to his advantage in fights.

Parnasse as a mixed martial artist stands 23-2 with eight wins via KO seven via submission and another eight via decision.

The one issue I can uncover about Parnasse is that his level of competition is quite inadequate so Hooker, his opponent sets up as a substantial step up in competition based on the elites Hooker has traded against.

In from Australia is the aforementioned Dan ‘the Hangman’ Hooker to try to take the steam away from Parnasse’s Parisian debut. Hooker is currently the organizations twelfth ranked lightweight.

Hooker is a grizzled UFC veteran who has competed for better than a decade against the top talent in the lightweight division of the UFC.

Hooker’s motive is singular in purpose. Arrive to the cage, provide his adversary with an all out stand up war and hope the he, Hooker is the man who remains standing when the dust clears.

After defeating a ranked contender in Poland’s Mateusz Gamrot, Hooker has dropped his last two bouts to elite lightweight talent in Benoit Saint-Denis and Arman Tsarukyan.

Hooker will hold height and reach advantages as well he’s been the fighter that has competed against the more staunch competition.

Parnasse though inexperienced against UFC level competition is lightning fast, offers diversified fight weaponry and is eight years the younger combatant in this fight.

Hooker has been enlisted by the UFC to make this fight with the Frenchman in order to determine if Parnasse can cut the Poupon or not.

Hooker, who is closer in fight years to forty than his actual thirty-six years is more than up for this challenge despite the betting market investing Euro’s on a fighter I regard as relatively risky as a favorite here, Parnasse.

Parnasse will look to make an instant impression on the UFC with a sensational victory but is that and can that add to the pressure for this twenty-seven year old fighter stepping up in class and fighting in front of his fellow countrymen?

Parnasse has finished his last five opponents in a row and now steps up to be tested by a legitimate top fifteen UFC lightweight.

Somehow, someway I believe Hooker can make a fight of this!

Total in this fight stands: 3.5Rds Under -260

Fares Ziam -155 vs. Axel Sola +135 Lightweight co main event

This is a battle between Ziam from Lyon, France, and Sola from Nice, France.

Both of these lightweights are similar in height, reach and age, the difference between these two is that Sola is a southpaw which will add some complexity to this French fracas.

Ziam enters this fight off a loss to Tom Nolan while Sola corrected his loss to Mason Jones two fights back with a victory over Brazilian Ishmail Bonfim in his last outing.

Both of these men carry high risk/reward into this fight for the victor will more than likely be ranked and the loser will need to put more victories together in order to earn their way into the top fifteen.

Ziam has the UFC experience and he’s the more fluid moving well rounded fighter while Sola is a mean, aggressive, junk yard dog who needs to convert any fight into a filthy, a grimy brawl.

I handicap Sola to be the more forceful, stronger man in the cage and believe this price should be lined closer to a pick-em.

In a fight that could be the fight of the night, I’ll advise an investment in Axel Sola +140 to upset Fares Ziam this weekend in Paris.

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com.

Catch my final releases for this week’s card there.

Enjoy the fights from France and Thank You for reading.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Shanghai Nurmagomedov vs. Song: Song remains the same…

Shanghai, China is the host city for this week’s UFC event.

Saturday’s fight slate is eleven fights deep with combatants from China, Japan and Indonesia populating much of the fight card hosting athletes from across the globe travelling in to compete against them.

There are few age variance fights on this slate as well there are but two fights with large men competing so we may see more athleticism, tactic and decision results as opposed to the dynamic amount of finishes we experienced last week.

This fight card begins at Midnight Saturday PST with the main card dropping at 3AM PST and once again we’ll be challenged to find some actionable betting opportunities as five of the scheduled twelve bouts (that I track) are lined with a favorite at least -250. Selectivity rules again regarding this fight card.

Favorites this year in the UFC are 70.3%.

Last week we dished a live dog in MarQuel Mederos who we had straight +225 for a half unit then we also had 1.5u on MarQuel +3.5pts +100. Mederos KO’d a tough willing Welsh wrecking ball in Mason Jones. Mederos closed -300 so it pays to be patient when it comes to investing in underdogs in the UFC!

Umar Nurmagomedov -485 vs. Song Yadong +435 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Yadong is a Chinese fighter training in northern California at Team Alpha Male under the tutelage of Uriah Faber.

Yadong has tremendous strength, cardio, fortitude to compliment his superior boxing/muay Thai striking. Yadong’s wrestling, once elementary has evolved into an asset for him albeit one he cannot really rely on to win fights, rather he utilizes wrestling take down defense to ensure his competition has to compete against him standing.

Yadong’s well more comfortable on the feet than rolling on the mat but in this fight, make no mistake about the fact that Yadong will be taken down.

How Song manages this fight once his opponent presses forward to engage in his vice grip wrestling then grounds him will be the foundational aspect to this bout.

If Yadong can force Umar to compete with him standing, then this fight becomes more winnable for the local Chinese fighter training now in Cali. Yadong has earned a positive significant strike differential of .53 SS/M while his take down defense is a stout 73%.

Umar Nurmagomedov is simply a 135lb. version of Islam Makhachev. Nurmagomedov, International Master of Sports in Combat Sambo is the premier talent in the division.

Umar’s strike defense is as effective as there is in the whole of the organization as he sports a positive 2.0 SS/M advantage while his stellar defense allows a paltry 1.86 SS/M to be landed on him.

Umar’s striking has evolved into a legitimate weapon despite the fact that he uses that mode of fighting only long enough to engulf his opponent, drag them to the canvas then begin to envelope them in his smothering Sambo/wrestling/grappling.

Once this fight begins we can look for Song to try to start his striking quickly and involve the fans, but he must do so cautiously for any indication of over aggression or forward thrust sets him up for the takedown which is foundational to the Nurmagomedov plan.

Yadong will want to use his jab to initiate conflict, but he must also remain fleet afoot and utilize a wide stance in order to be able to fend off the takedown advances that Umar is certain to impose upon him.

The Nurmagomedov camp for their part feels that he can win this fight anywhere it goes and I believe that to be correct. Umar’s striking is a tool used simply to set up his dynamic take down ability (4.03 take downs executed per fifteen minutes of fight time).

Once Nurmagomedov can transition opponents from feet to floor his single point of focus is to squeeze the breath from the opponent. Nurmagomedov has finished three of his last six adversaries and in this fight, against the organizations sixth ranked bantamweight he will look to try to finish Yadong in any manner possible.

Larger cage, Chinese home crowd backing Yadong and Yadong arriving to this battle off a finish win against Deiveson Figueiredo together make me feel that this fight will be competitive as long as Yadong keeps it standing.

Total in this fight is lined 4.5Rds Over -230

Bantamweight fights in the UFC go to decision 55% of the time so I lean that this fight does in fact go to the judges.

Su Mudaerji -215 vs. Alex Perez +190 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Rematch!

In May of this year these two tussled in Macao and the result was a ‘no contest’ based on a south of the border teep-kick from Su to Perez.

Perez, thirty-four, closed a -125 favorite in that fight based on his level of competition faced and his depth of UFC experience.

Perez during the fight experienced difficulty entering the pocket on Su who is three inches taller and holds a substantial seven inch reach advantage.

Su, thirty, is primarily a striker so those height and reach numbers clearly pronounce him as a difficult chore for the shorter Perez and we saw that in the first fight.

In this bout, Perez is going to need to solve the distance problem he faces in this matchup which is the same distance issue he experienced just three months ago.

Su, trains at Uriah Faber’s Team Alpha Male, a renown gym that specializes in the wrestling base. Wrestling base is mandatory for Su for his movement, striking, Muay Thai and athleticism are all intertwined in his fluidity of striking but his take down defense especially against experienced well rounded grappling based athletes needs improvement.

For Perez, he must turn up the intensity of this fight from the opening bell and pressure Su, while forcing him into moving backwards for if Perez can successfully forge forward and pressure Su, he will have a more efficient time clasping onto the Tibetan fighter with the aspiration of dragging him to the floor for a flogging.

Su got Perez in Macao in May and now must face another Su home crowd for this fight which translates to no excuse for Perez for he is well aware that any close decision could well be flavored by a little Chinese home cooking.

Perez MUST make this fight like his pants are on fire and sell his soul to engage in his wrestling against Su.

Su meanwhile will need to utilize his athleticism in that huge thirty foot cage and mandate that this fight takes place standing. If he does that then it is my judgement that Su will be difficult to beat in this rematch.

Su Mudaerji -215

and I’ll pair him in a parlay into an upcoming fight where Armen Tsarukyan (currently priced -365) faces Brazilian Mauricio Ruffy on a fight card September 19th. This parlay is available at DraftKings.

Tsarukyan -115 becomes the net price point for digital readers should Su realize success in the first leg!

Parlay outlay: 1.15u

Total in this fight stands 2.5 Rds. Under

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Hernandez vs. Rodrigues: From Oakland to Sac-town, the bay area and back down Cali is where they get they mack down

This week Sacramento, CA, is the host city for UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs. Rodrigues.

This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts, six of which feature athletes who present fans with the highest rate of finishes, that’s the 170lb to Heavyweight divisions of the UFC.

Ten fighters travel into the states from out of the country to compete against domestic athletes so monitoring those weight cuts and fight week developments are important. Four Californian’s will compete on the card two facing one another (Emmers vs. Douglas) and the other two face combatants from Canada and Brazil.

Last week MacKenzie Dern -220 displayed the world class fight acumen we discussed in our breakdown to thoroughly dominate Canadian Gillian Robertson who was in over her head from the time this fight was announced.

The only actor that had a worse night than Robertson was her cornerman Din Thomas who provided five rounds of absolute un-motivating backup to his fighter. In fact, between the fourth and fifth round of the fight it was clear that Thomas was embarrassed at what was transpiring and he took it out on his fighter.

In the fight game sometimes an athlete hits the octagon with a blank stare and little fight. This is what happened to Robertson last Saturday unfortunately.

Let’s Fight!

Anthony Hernandez -170 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +140* Middleweight (185lbs.) Main Event

Tenth ranked UFC middleweight Rodrigues is a fighter who appears to be sculpted out of marble. He is large, extremely powerful and is diversely equipped in mixed martial arts weaponry.

Rodrigues, 10-3 in UFC competition can be inconsistent in his approach to maintaining his UFC momentum as every two to three fights Rodrigues gets matched against an athlete that finds a way to upset him whether that is Jared Cannonier or Bruno Ferreira.

Rodrigues, or ‘Robocop’ as he is called is a decorated black belt in BJJ and his kicks, strikes and elbows carry devastating damage upon landing.

While Rodrigues can start fights looking formidable, strong, and fresh he often begins to slow as an opponent remains competitive and is able to force him to fight into the late second or third round where Rodrigues size and musclebound frame begin to work against him.

Rodrigues strikes at a high output (5.53 significant strikes per minute), but he eats 4.78 SS/M of power strikes so he is more than willing to trade power shots something that his opponent Fluffy Hernandez will look to avoid.

Hernandez is the seventh ranked UFC middleweight who enters this fight off a disappointing KO loss against champion Sean Strickland to which there is no same. Hernandez SS/M is 4.57 which is impressive especially considering his effective strike evasion for Fluffy only receives 3.10 SS/M.

Hernandez was riding momentum into that Strickland title opportunity before he was dominated by the champion in a performance that was unusual for Hernandez in that he was never able to get his attack started let alone unleashed.

This fight is a terrific example of girth, might, power and limited energy supply (Rodrigues) facing a fighter who will be much the slighter man physically however Hernandez will command the quickness, speed, footwork, and most especially cardio components of this fight.

Early on Rodrigues will plod forward in order to ‘make’ this fight and attempt to force Hernandez to exchange while Hernandez will look to use that large cage to contribute to his footwork and strike evasion.

Robocop can slow during fights while Hernadez never tires, and in fact usually begins to differentiate himself from his opponent after the first round has expired simply because his conditioning is as lethal a weapon for Fluffy as is his offensive MMA weaponry.

Hernandez will use his feet to force Robocop into moving and defending early in this fight, as the bout transpires and as Rodrigues begins to slow Hernandez’ speed, deft footwork and volume striking should begin to control this fight.

Hernandez, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with a black belt in Marinoble’s MMA system will need to play matador in this fight and over time sap the limited cardio from the aggressive incoming power striker Rodrigues.

Rodrigues, for his part will need to attempt to utilize the early minutes of this fight to bully, badger and physically berate Hernandez with the intention of not allowing Hernandez to breath let alone find his way into the later rounds for it is in those later rounds where the differences in these two fighters will be most pronounced.

I have many thoughts on this fight so check back Friday on the ‘Bout Business Podcast for more on this main event.

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -200

Mason Jones -265 vs. MarQuel Mederos +225 Lightweight (155lbs.)

This may be one of the most entertaining fights of the summer.

Jones travels in from Wales to take this fight against a fighter in Mederos who lives and trains in Phoenix. So travel and all of the periphery issues that surround Jones arriving to Sacramento then making weight are just a bit more complex than they are for the domestic fighter Mederos.

Jones is a simple warrior. He is big, strong, aggressive, and completely unafraid. Mason Jones ‘makes’ fights, and by that I mean he arrives, he checks in, then when the bell rings his single point of focus is to dislodged any opponent from their consciousness.

Jones weaponry is comprehensive for he is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a black belt in Judo as well he has earned a black belt in Kickboxing.

On the feet, on the floor or against the cage, Jones sports the mixed martial arts acumen and experience to dominate any fight.

Where Jones can be challenged, however, is if he has to compete against an athlete with abundant speed, precision, strike evasion, footwork, and counterstriking.

Enter MarQuel Mederos.

Mederos has the advantage of living a few hours away from Sac-town so travel and weight cutting on paper should be a much easier ordeal for him entering this foundational fight.

Mederos is a fluid striker who makes up for a lack of one punch KO power by utilizing his athleticism, footwork, octagon generalship, and volume counter striking.

Where Jones hurls bombs to destroy, Mederos utilizes combinations/counterstrikes to eventually sap the steam from opponents, then transition into his volume striking and kicking in order to overwhelm the adversary.

Mederos last fight was a draw based on a point taken from him during the fight and that does not sit well with the 11-1-1 mixed martial artist.

He yearns for this fight, this opponent, and this challenge!

Once the bell for this fight rings, it will be mandatory for Mederos to utilize his fluidity of movement and counterstriking especially early when Jones has the most sting on his power strikes/kicks.

Mederos must manage this fight into the second round, from there his athleticism and feet will begin to display the vast gap in expertise between these two for I do not believe Jones will be able to catch up to a finitely focused Mederos once Mederos gets into this bout and gets lathered up.

Jones opened -225 in this fight which in my judgement was too high an opening number on Jones. Take the fact that that price has now escalated to Jones -280 (DraftKings) and we have what I believe is a great opportunity on the underdog here.

Mederos will need to use every bit of octagon savvy and defensive aptitude in that first round to both sap the walloper from Wales of his energy then force him to have to fight into the later stages of what Mederos needs to be a fifteen minute war.

Once and if this fight can get into the second round and beyond, the complexion will change and we’ll see Jones go from hunter to the hunted as Mederos utilizes his feet, his counterstriking acumen, and his deft strike defense.

These two will compete on the feet, however, if we do see Jones initiate wrestling, it will be a sure sign that Mederos’ speed and counterstriking is forcing Jones off plan which is exactly what I believe transpires late in the fight.

Mederos take down defense stands at 82%, so he will welcome Jones shooting in on him as that will create opportunity for further counter strikes, knees, and kicks.

Mederos is live.

Mederos +225 .50u

Mederos +3.5 pts +100; 1.5u

‘Bout Business Podcast has been white hot all summer long. Friday early afternoon the podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases there.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Preseason betting: Search for advantage not action

Each NFL season I try fruitlessly to encourage gamblers to hasten slowly. My advice is easy and grounded in common sense. It’s directed to those in a hurry to make a football wager before the season starts, or even before pre-season starts.

Many poorly informed bettors wager at the behest and advice of people in the reporting business who have huge hours to fill and oh so little to say. Some are handicappers, yes, but those that handicap every sport January to December are simply generalists able to blab and bet but they offer very little value. They are not profitable sports gamers.

I have always encouraged doing one’s own handicapping. It’s work but performed effectively due diligence now can be converted into profit later.

This is the time of year to read to study and to be in little hurry to do anything but prepare yourself to be able to understand each team.

Advantage will be uncovered during this work and when discovered information allowing the handicapper to fade a team and/or any accomplishments they may earn in the upcoming year are the target.

Striving to find weak, maimed teams and by maimed I refer to the fact that perhaps a team is getting overly thought of without doing anything to earn it other than a coaching change (Atlanta, New York) or coordinator adjustments (Seattle, Kansas City, Baltimore) then the key is to figure out a way to bet against any team accomplishments.

That’s my sole focus currently.

As far as the positive bets, the bets I wish to make on teams on which I am bullish?

Those bets are only made AFTER the preseason so injury, trade, divorce, or dereliction cannot adversely affect my bet before the season starts.

Once football begins we must live with the early choices made.

My early choices can only be aided or advanced by adverse effects, injury or whatever. If you bet positively on team accomplishments now then in all honestly you should think about your process.

Adverse effects occur every day in the NFL world people.

Pease, be diligent out there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 330 Makhachev vs. Garry: Russian roulette

The City of Brotherly ‘Shove,’ Philadelphia, PA. hosts this week’s UFC 330.

The fight slate is populated with twelve bouts which shall be held in a large thirty foot octagon in front of a frantic Philly fan base. The card features only a couple of area athletes, which is relatively unusual.

There is one Philly fighter facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete (Wells vs. Oralbai) and one bout where a Pennsylvanian athlete (Dustin Stolzfus) faces a fighter from Maryland in Mansur Abdul-Malik.

We will witness six domestic athletes facing fighters that must travel into the country to compete and eight of the scheduled twelve fights feature athletes weighing 170lbs. and above.

Higher weigh classes deliver finish rates so we can see that the organization is looking to deliver fantastic finishes. Five of the eight fights at those higher weights are lined with a total of 1.5Rds proving the potential for exciting finishes.

Last week Amada Lemos did in fact ‘fight for our money’ as she put out a great effort. Unfortunately, it was not good enough to get her hand raised.

We move forward into this card looking to get back onto the winning track!

 

Islam Makhachev -330 vs. Ian Machado Garry +285 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

Ian Garry is an Irish copycat of Conor McGregor only without the finishing ability and charisma of the former UFC legend.

Garry does possess a black belt in Judo to compliment his deft fluid footwork and his always running mouth. While Garry’s power does not intimidate anyone in the division, his speed, fluidity of movement, defensive dominance and pitter patter volume striking allow him to shuck and jive his way though most dangerous fights and even into this one.

Garry is a decision machine when he has things going his way as proven by the fact that his last six bouts, all victories have each been decided by decision.

Garry’s mouth is well more poignant than is his fighting but there is a clear path of victory here for the Irish blowhard…..the pitter/patter shuck and jive decision win.

Garry’s athleticism and ability to use his feet as well as anyone in the UFC will be the tools he must rely upon to have any chance to win this fight for he MUST not allow his vice grip Russian opponent to clasp onto him. Garry in anything but freeform space is in real trouble in this matchup.

Islam Makhachev may be one of the most dominant mixed martial artists in the history of the UFC and with a victory here solidifies his claim to be one of the most accomplished UFC athletes of all time.

Makhachev will be the slighter man in the cage Saturday as Garry will be five inches the taller man, he’ll hold a five inch reach advantage in this fight, and he is eight years the younger man.

If Garry can float like a butterfly and pop like a pansy for twenty five minutes, maintain a safe distance from this Russian vice grip and force this fight into the late rounds he absolutely has a chance to win this fight.

For Champion Makhachev this fight simply revolves around how long it takes him to cut the cage, clasp onto the brash Irishman, drag him to the canvas then control him from top position on his way to greasing Garry into the mat.

Garry will be the flashy faster rabbit early in this battle and Makhachev will be the tortoise force pursuing the speedster in meticulous, calculated fashion.  

In order to win a championship, a fight needs to be won and eventually Garry be forced to try to engage in his kicking/striking if he wants to win this fight.

It’s then when Makhachev will capitalize on that mistake in tactic and shoot to clasp onto the Irishman, ground him, then mark him up with punches, elbows and ground and pound.

Makhachev opened -300 in this title fight and is currently -340 at Circa.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -180

MacKenzie Dern -220 vs. Jillian Robertson +190 Woman’s Strawweight (115lbs.)

Robertson is a Canadian athlete who enters this fight after defeating her last five opponents, three via submission which as a black belt in BJJ she is apt at, and two via TKO as she is decent throwing hands also.

Robertson’s level of competition faced however is not elite and with this step up in mixed martial arts class she will get a taste of fighting someone with world class BJJ skill.

MacKenzie Dern is the daughter of Wellington Dias a multiple time BJJ champion in Brazil. Since diapers Dern’s been competing and winning BJJ world tiles.

Once in the UFC she needed to incorporate striking and strike defense into her weaponry and while she’s still in development there, her grappling and submission game are on a level all their own in the whole of women’s MMA.

When this fight begins it will be Dern who will control the striking and eventually the ground for while both ladies believe they can excel there, the fact is that Robertson is giving away too much skill across the board in this fight. I believe this is a very advantageous spot for MacKenzie Dern.

Dern -220

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -220

Lean Over

Friday my final releases will be available on the ‘Bout Business Podcast. Catch it wherever podcasts are offered or on my webpage, GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Preseason betting: Search for advantage not action

Each NFL season I try fruitlessly to encourage gamblers to hasten slowly. My advice is easy and grounded in common sense. It’s directed to those in a hurry to make a football wager before the season starts, or even before pre-season starts.

Many poorly informed bettors wager at the behest and advice of people in the reporting business who have huge hours to fill and oh so little to say. Some are handicappers, yes, but those that handicap every sport January to December are simply generalists able to blab and bet but they offer very little value. They are not profitable sports gamers.

I have always encouraged doing one’s own handicapping. It’s work but performed effectively due diligence now can be converted into profit later.

This is the time of year to read to study and to be in little hurry to do anything but prepare yourself to be able to understand each team.

Advantage will be uncovered during this work and when discovered information allowing the handicapper to fade a team and/or any accomplishments they may earn in the upcoming year are the target.

Striving to find weak, maimed teams and by maimed I refer to the fact that perhaps a team is getting overly thought of without doing anything to earn it other than a coaching change (Atlanta, New York) or coordinator adjustments (Seattle, Kansas City, Baltimore) then the key is to figure out a way to bet against any team accomplishments.

That’s my sole focus currently.

As far as the positive bets, the bets I wish to make on teams on which I am bullish?

Those bets are only made AFTER the preseason so injury, trade, divorce, or dereliction cannot adversely affect my bet before the season starts.

Once football begins we must live with the early choices made.

My early choices can only be aided or advanced by adverse effects, injury or whatever. If you bet positively on team accomplishments now then in all honestly you should think about your process.

Adverse effects occur every day in the NFL world people.

Pease, be diligent out there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV120 Gamrot vs. Salkilld: The Damage….done?

The UFC Meta APEX hosts this week’s Fight Night event a fight slate that reached eleven bouts just last week with the addition of two matchups.

The APEX employs the smaller 25’ cage as well the venue holds only hundreds of fans.

Of the eleven bouts, four are competitions between athletes weighing 170lbs and above. That’s where finish rates are highest, it’s rewarding to get a couple of these bouts on this APEX card as the UFC seems to be evolving away from matching larger men in that small octagon/venue.

There are three bouts where an athlete from the USA faces an opponent that travels into the Country from abroad. Those fights will bear monitoring of the travelling athlete as well, their weight cut for travel does affect the weight and preparation of athletes.

Last week my supposed Serbian ‘hammer’ was in fact the ‘nail’ as journeyman mixed martial artist Gil Urbina knocked out local fighter Vlasto Cepo in one round. Onward we journey!

Mateusz Gamrot +130 vs. Quillan Sallkild -150 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

I have been taught that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.

In this fight we have a young, tall, strong Aussie black belt in BJJ taking on a short sawed off Polish chain wrestler in a main event that should really be compelling.

Australian Quillan Salkilld ships in for this bout after winning a contender series fight then realizing a 5-0 tally in UFC completion.

Salkilld has great physical advantages in this fight as he is eleven years the younger man, and he hold reach, height, and leg length dominance.

Salkilld need to employ those physical attributes to this fight particularly in order for him to keep the forward pressing and unrelenting wrestling of Gamrot at distance. Distance will allow Salkilld to utilize his jab, fire straight right hands behind that jab then follow that combination up with a kick which must be executed from a safe distance.

While Salkilld is a decorated BJJ artist, he does not wish to foray on the floor with this vice grip of a wrestling talent in Gamrot. With that mentioned, Salkilld has earned a 7.25 takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time stat which is impressive even considering the lack of elite competition he has competed against.

While his resume shows that he has finished four of his five adversaries, a closer look shows that none of those opponents were/are ranked in the top fifteen of the division nor were they elite with unrelenting forward pressing wrestling.

In Mateusz Gamrot we get the prototypical unrelenting power wrestler.

Gamrot’s UFC resume is far more complete than Salkilld’s as well he has faced a far superior set of elite UFC lightweight competition, after all he is thirty-five.

Gamrot will need to ensure that he avoids Salkilld’s power early in this fight and upon his entry to clasp then take down the Aussie.  He will need to protect his neck in those take down attempts and not run into a choke. When he is able to engage, and when he drags this long, lanky finisher to the ground (a key for him in this fight) the fight for Gamrot will commence while the desperation to get off his back will compel the Aussie.

Gamrot’s seen and competed against short, tall, thin, and rotund strikers/wrestlers/grapplers prior while Salkilld’s first run in with an elite power wrestler of any body type will come Saturday.

This fight sets up to be competitive early but eventually the unrelenting pressure of Gamrot could begin to wear the long, tall Aussie down and eventually make him susceptible to the Gamrot control, ground and pound and damage.

After all, this is a substantial step up in class for Salkilld as well it is a five round fight, a first for Salkilld but not the first for Gamrot.

It’s my take that this will be a very competitive fight. Salkilld will need to pulverize Gamrot with elbows, fists and knees on his way to engage while Gamrot must fight this man from an inside the pocket position. Gamrot must be glue and affix himself on Salkilld in order to mute the Aussie’s offense and put him on the defense for Gamrot being forced to remain on the outside in this battle will be disaster to his chances of winning.

A great, competitive fight in a small cage. edge to wrestler?

Total in this fight: There are books with 3.5Rds. Over -125 as well there are books with 4.5Rds Under -135.

Strong Lean to Over 3.5

Alexia Thainara -240 vs. Amanda Lemos +205 Women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Tenth ranked Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner who trains with the Ribas family. She is a developing fighter who is 3-0 in UFC competition facing only a nominally effective set of competition entering this fight.

Thainara holds a two inch reach advantage in this fight which means little as she is a grappler as opposed to an effective striker. She is also a whopping eleven years the younger fighter in this matchup.

At the turn of the year I pledged to quit chasing fighters six years (+/-) older than their opponent and it has paid dividends however, in this fight I must make an exception.

Eleven ranked Amanda Lemos, now thirty-nine has competed against the absolute elite of the strawweight division. She’s realized a 9-6 record over nine years of UFC competition.

Lemos is unlike most Brazilian fighters in that her grappling is underdeveloped while her striking aptitude, power, volume, and strike defense are elite. Lemos takes this fight knowing that with a loss she freefalls down the rankings and more than likely out of the top twenty of the division which spells doom for a thirty-nine year old.

So Thainara enters the most important fight of her life while Lemos does also!

Lemos’ experience and the level of competition faced force me to believe that she’ll manage the take down attempts put on her by Thainara then when this fight remains standing I judge Lemos to be in far superior position.

I expect Lemos to fight like a pit bull backed into a corner protecting a litter in this fight. She is NOT ready to ride off into the sunset rather, I believe she puts forth a highly effective game plan on her way to a decision victory.

Lemos +205

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my releases for this fight card there or go to Ga,nLou.com to access the podcast.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Serbia: Beatdown in Belgrade

Belgrade, Serbia hosts its first UFC Fight Night with the headline fight being local fighter Uros Medic taking on American mixed martial artist Daniel Rodriguez.

The fight slate offers a full house of rabid Serbian fans thirteen bouts populated with a highly international set of athletes arriving from some seventeen countries. Twelve local/regional athletes will have the honor of fighting in front of a crowd that is looking for violence.

Unfortunately, and similar to last week, nine of the thirteen bouts on this card are lined with the favorite -250 or higher!  I will be measured in releases with this card.

Last week Mike Davis got out wrestled by a dynamically equipped wrestler however, Nurullo Aliev, the wrestler who defeated Davis put absolutely no damage on him nor did he try to ‘fight.’ He wrestled.

The second release was for the ‘main event to start round 2’ -250 which was a winner. I tied that side to MacKenzie Dern -198, Dern competes in UFC 330 August 15th against Canadian Gillian Robertson. That parlay pays +110 should it come to fruition, and I believe that’s in fact what will transpire.

On to Belgrade!

Uros Medic -365 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +300 Welterweight (170lbs.) Main event

Thirteenth ranked welterweight Daniel Rodriguez is a street fighting man.

Groomed for fighting in the streets of Los Angeles and it’s prison system, ‘DRod’ as he is called, has no fear…. of anything.

He’s competed in three separate divisions in mixed martial arts and as a welterweight in the UFC he’s accrued a 10-4 record against pedigreed, worthy talent.

Rodriguez is a purple belt in BJJ but grappling aside, DRod wants to kick, punch, elbow and knee his way into finishing opponents. Four of DRod’s ten victories in the UFC have come via finish.

Rodriguez will own a three inch reach advantage, and the southpaw is six years the elder athlete in this fight at the ripe age of thirty-nine.

One aspect of this confrontation is that in July of 2025 Rodriguez was scheduled to fight however he was in Mexico and was forced to spend several months in prison.

The lack of appropriate training, the lack of substantial nutrition and the time spent there had to have taken it’s toll on a thirty-nine year old athlete. It is fair to wonder how Rodriguez will respond to the intensity of a UFC battle even after having some time (perhaps not appropriate time) to recover and restore his fighting physique and mentality appropriately.

Uros Medic is fourteenth ranked in the division. After his last victory, he made the call out for a UFC event to be held in Serbia, and the UFC granted that wish.

Medic, a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an orange belt in Judo sports an 8-3 tally in UFC competition. He competed against worthy competition and enters this bout off an impressive finish of Texan Goeff Neal.

Medic is also a southpaw, so both of these guys being left handed scrappers will add a degree of oddity to this fight as two lefties competing against one another is relatively uncommon and it sets up to be potentially an awkward fight.

Once this bout starts, look for the forward pressure of Medic to clash immediately with the frenetic pace that Rodriguez wants to impose upon the native Serbian.  Like two male rams clashing on the side of the mountain, these two fighters will each take the fight directly to the other with the sole purpose of leaving the other quivering on the canvass.

Medic’s six year age advantage must be considered as well the fact he fights at home against an American that must make the trip into Serbia then prepare his body and mind for the weight cut and finally the competition.

As is often the case, the UFC chose Medic’s opponent carefully and with the express interest of offering Medic a fighter he can handle as well one he may finish in order to stir excitement into the Serbian crowd.

Medic, by the way, has had his last five bouts (4-1 record) end in the first round.

Tough spot for DRod.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -200

Strong lean over

Vlasto Cepo -280 vs. Gil Urbina +235 Middleweight (185lbs)

With another chalk laden fight slate we’ll take to the parlay position as we did last week.

In this fight the ‘subject’ is American fighter Gil Urbina who is 1-3 in UFC competition. Urbina holds advantages in UFC experience and height and is a very active striker who lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute while accepting 4.65.

Urbina does offer some wrestling aptitude and is able to execute the take down however his strength, his strike defense and his suspect chin make him an easy mark for a local debuting power striker.

In Cepo we get the aforementioned pumped up power striker.

Cepo is able to compete in front of his home countrymen for this debut and against a target in Urbina who has been knocked out by the middle of the second round in three of his last four bouts.

This fight is designed to offer the Serbian fans a local fighter who is in position to shine and should perform as expected against a fighter in Urbina who is game and willing, but who is also ill equipped to fend of the force from this Serbian slugger.

Parlay time:

Cepo -280 to MacKenzie Dern -198

(Derm fights Gillian Robertson on UFC 330 August 15) +104

Please note: This column holds Dern -198 as the second leg of a parlay (Ankalaev/Guskov starts round 2) from last week’s column which pays +110. Clearly I favor Ms. Dern in her bout against the Canadian Robertson.

Friday late morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch all my final releases for this card there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Abu Dhabi Ankalaev vs. Guskov: Russian Roulette?

The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi UAE this weekend to export their brand to the fight frenetic Muslim world. Abu Dhabi is becoming a regular stop for the UFC as they attract great crowds for the events as well there is a business camaraderie between the leadership there and the UFC.

This event will utilize the large cage, and a full house will witness the intended violence. We have thirteen schedule bouts of which eight will be held in the higher weight classes of Welterweight on up. These larger men produce the highest finish rates in the UFC, so we witness the effort to export UFC violence to the UAE.

There are seven fights on this card where the favorite is lined at least -310, in essence bringing total wagerable fights (outside of props and totals) to eight bouts, there are also a handful of fights where there exists great advantage from a youth standpoint.

Understanding age, size, travel, and location of the fight slate is always foundational in my handicapping process.

Last week Jose Delgado +100 overcame a steamed prospect in Austin Bashi. Bashi was hit by the so called ‘sharp’ gambling people right before they dropped the puck on this fight moving Delgado into plus price territory. Delgado awarded Bashi his PhD. In MMA we tote a unit into our yearly bankroll.

Magomed Ankaleav -550 vs. Bogdan Guskov +430 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Ninth ranked light heavyweight Guskov steps in on relatively short notice to take advantage of the opportunity to climb the rankings with a victory over the number two ranked and former champion in Ankalaev.

Guskov takes the place of Kalil Roundtree, he enters this fight after a draw to former champion Jan Blachowicz after winning four straight bouts.

Guskov is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a Master of Sport in MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Boxing. He is strong, determined and he utilizes a forward pressing attack where engagement with the opponent is mandatory for of Guskov’s eighteen wins, all are via finish.

That being stated, this is a substantial step up in class for Guskov, he too takes this opportunity on without the benefit of a full training camp.

Former champion Ankalaev, currently ranked number two in the division is also highly versed in fighting for he holds an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.

While most Russian fighters excel in grappling, sambo and wrestling Ankaleav utilizes more of a pressing striking and kicking attack to earn his wages. Of his twenty wins, ten have come via the KO and ten via decision. Unusually for a Russian athlete in the UFC, Ankalaev holds no wins via submission.

This fight makes out to be a war that will be waged on the feet for fifteen of Guskov’s victories in MMA have come via the KO/TKO while ten have come that way for Ankalaev. Ankalaev’s ten decision wins point more to the elite level of adversary he has competed against as opposed to any lack of finishing ability in my judgement.

Once this fight begins Ankalaev’s size, might and experience will be the tells against an athlete in Guskov who has been pressed into this opportunity based on UFC need as opposed to Guskov’s own merits.

This will be a one sided fight after a relatively competitive first round.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -155

As a handicapper, my analysis of this card is that it was put together with the sole purpose of serving a proud, financially active and involved Saudi demographic. I hate to state the obvious but the overwhelming mismatch fights on this card force the opportunity searching handicapper to have fewer fight to analyze for profit.

One consideration is to select four or five area combatants that are heavy chalk then throw them into a round robin and bet each in 2 and 3 team sets.

I however rarely bet that way so for our purposes let’s execute the following future parlay ourselves.

Main Event,

Ankalaev/Guskov starts Round 2 -250 To MacKenzie Dern -198; +110 (DraftKings)

(Dern fights 8-15 vs. Gillian Robertson)

Total in Ankalaev/Guskov Fight: 2.5 -145 Under

Nurullo Aliev -220 vs. Mike Davis +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Aliev is set up for shine in front of his peeps as he is a vice grip Tajikistani wrestling/sambo force entering this battle undefeated professionally at 11-0.

Should this fight go Aliev’s way we’ll witness the Tajik fighter take Davis down immediately then control him from top position on his way to an eventual decision or perhaps if lucky, a finish. That’s what many feel will occur in this fight.

Myself, I handicap a lethal, pent up fighting professional in Mike Davisa who’s wrestling is so much more acute than many understand to be like a coiled cobra in this situation.

He’s not had to utilize wrestling much because he sports hands or fury. He is a slick, competent power boxer along with holding underestimated wrestling acumen. That wrestling, specifically his take down defense must allow Davis to navigate this fight into the later rounds where his experience and technical striking ability will begin to produce effect.

Mike Davis is an underestimated razor blade and in a situation like this, I trust him to fight for my dollar.

Mike Davis +190

Total in this fight is not yet released, nor is the Points Handicap which is a betting tool I utilize religiously.

Friday when the ‘Bout Business Podcast comes out; I’ll highlight all my approaches to this fight and there are many.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast UFC Du Plessis vs. Usman: Gorilla warefare

I drove up to Las Vegas for the weekend. Will be watching the fights at O’Aces with industry chaps Saturday night.

Let’s Fight:

Parlay: Ko -198/Du Plessis -215 1u returns 1.20u

Parlay: Delgado -110/Makhachev -340 2u returns 2.98u

Future Wager: Makhachev to be Welterweight Champion 12/31/26 -115  2.30u to earn 2.0u

Cannonier+3.5pts. +120 1.0u returns 1.20u

a very conservative approach this week.