Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC Fight Night Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Lightweight elimination

The UFC APEX in Las Vegas hosts this week’s Fight Night offering a main event worthy of PPV status. Two top seven Lightweight contenders headline a fight slate consisting of eleven bouts ranging from Strawweight (115lbs.) to heavyweight (265lbs.).

Many of the combatants competing on this card may lack headliner status but with one great performance each/any/all could catapult themselves into higher profile bouts.

In the UFC combatants better finish opponents and/or put rear ends in seats (preferably both) in order to be highlighted and inserted into a main event situation.

Last week my release of Canadian Jas Jasudavicious lost which puts results to date 15-15 -0.85u. It’s time for a fourth quarter run!

Rafael Fiziev -155 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +135 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Polish warrior Gamrot enters this bout sixth ranked in the division and he’s utilized his world class wrestling base as the foundation for his success.

Gamrot’s supplemented his wrestling base with a black belt in BJJ which allows him to apply a forward pressing, heavy pressure grappling attack designed to back opponents up. Forward pressure is foundational to Gamrot success as he relies on grounding opponents then exercising dominance from the mat.

A couple bouts back against Beneil Dariush, Gamrot got caught off guard by a prepared, experienced well-rounded adversary. He next faced 6’3” monster and top ten lightweight power striker Jailin Turner on short notice and was able to earn victory in the most difficult of circumstances. He was focused on getting back into the win column after what he regarded as a learning experience.

Gamrot is a game, focused, experienced and confident athlete entering this bout and it matters little who is put in the cage with him for he’s competed against world class adversaries all possessing diverse, fight ending weaponry.

Sixth ranked Rafael Fiziev is a Kyrgyzstani fighter with an awareness of wrestling but he’s not near as fluent as is his opponent in that capacity. Rather, Fiziev employs a dynamic Muay Thai striking attack as his fighting base. From there he’s added a blue belt in BJJ to compliment his fighting repertoire.

Fiziev stands as the striking coach at the world-famous ‘Tiger Muay Thai’ gym in Phuket Thailand, so take it from me that his movement, strike defense, strike offense and his tactical abilities are unequaled.

Fiziev enters this fight as Gamrot did against Turner in his last, on the bounce off a loss to Justin Gaethje that in my judgment makes Fiziev extremely dangerous in this spot situationally.

That said, scouring Fiziev’s past opponents leaves me wondering why he has never faced as formidable or at least any formidable wrestling/sambo/grappling based opponents…. Could this have been by design?

Fiziev’s last opponent, Justin Gaethje painted Fiziev’s fence via striking this past March and with the humiliation of that beatdown in the rear view, Fiziev enters this fight with urgency and a singularity of focus.

Fiziev’s striking skills are refined, diverse and more damaging than are Gamrot’s and I must believe it’s Fiziev’s intention to make this a striking competition rather than allowing Gamrot to compete where he is most lethal (and Fiziev untested), against the fence and on the canvas.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch Fiziev address the immediate forward press and wrestling introduction from Gamrot. It will be critical for Gamrot to tax Fiziev and make him effort throughout the full length of the TWENTY-FIVE MINUTE fight for cardio is surely an advantage for Gamrot especially in a grueling, grinding, taxing wrestling competition which Gamrot must make this.

Fiziev is most likely to finish opponents via volume striking/kicking, he must maintain distance in order to launch and land. How he creates and maintains the necessary spacing to strike/kick is foundational to his success in this fight. How he handles Gamrot’s take down offense will also be important to his chances of earning victory.

Fiziev’s youth, his compact physique and how it translates into take down defense, the fact that he’s ‘on the bounce’ seem advantages for him in this bout.

The fact that he has not really competed against a forward pressing vice grip of a wrestling based mixed martial artist has me wondering how well prepared he may be for Gamrot’s twenty-five minutes of wrestling pressure.

For Gamrot, he must systematically break down this deft striker and force him backwards, force him to defend, force him to wrestle and force him to tire. Gamrot owns the sure way to sap the zip from any effective striker with his ability to wrestle for rounds…not minutes.

From a wrestling/grappling and mixed martial arts perspective it’s my belief that Gamrot holds advantage.

For Fiziev, it’s all about keeping this bout on the feet. He must maintain striking distance through movement and counterstriking to discourage Gamrot from rushing into the pocket to engage.

Fiziev’s take down defense will be foundational to his success because he’ll be as awkward and ineffective on the floor as Gamrot will be having to compete solely on the feet.

At the end of the day, I’ll take the wrestling-based athlete as underdog in this situation.

Gamrot +135

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -125

Charles Jourdain -135 vs. Ricardo Ramos +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Ramos from Brazil is well rounded in his fight makeup but specializes is striking and especially spinning kicks and elbows.

Jourdain is a kickboxing specialist at heart and while he sports BJJ skill he prefers to out point opponents with movement, precision strikes and kicks but with little power.

Early in this bout I look for both men to stand and measure the other with striking but as the bout wears on it surely makes sense for Ramos to find a way inside to engage then drag Jourdain down to the mat where Ramos is dangerous and Jourdain is somewhat exposed.

Lean to Ramos

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Over -130

Lean to the over

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast has earned a net 22.80 units in 2023 showing 15% ROI. The podcast drops each Friday there is a UFC card. Look for it across all podcast platforms.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, Uncategorized

UFC Money Morning report: blanked!

GambLou weekly UFC profitability took a step backwards last week as I realized a 0-4 -3.5unit evening Saturday in the UFC.

While it’s never easy to report loss, it’s part of the landscape of running a successful business and besides I’ve had so few losing nights thus year that this is easy to account for. I did after all use only a half unit on Christo Giagos which saved us a half a unit.

Rarely do I sweep a UFC board and rarely will I get blanked, each has occurred in the last four weeks which is funny. I would expect it to be some time before wither happen again… I presume.

NFL is now 2 weeks into the season so I’ll begin to post mid-week observations and rants pertaining to NFL starting this week.

UFC 2023: 77-78 +22.80u 15%ROI (+130)

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Noche Grasso vs. Shechenko: Bulletproof!

Never in my wildest imaginations did I believe that Sean Strickland would actually execute the proper plan of attack to clasp the middleweight title away from former middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Strickland with his one-sided decision win has left the MMA community dumbfounded heading into this week’s card.

Now this week from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas comes ‘Noche UFC’ an event described by the UFC as, “The UFC brings an action-packed card to T-Mobile Arena on Mexican Independence Day for the first time ever. It has become a great tradition in combat sports to hold big fights on September 16th, and this year we’re honoring our UFC fans and fighters from Mexican communities with an inaugural Noche UFC.”

On this fight card are six true Mexican fighters and another three of Mexican heritage now residing in the US. They’ll take on other athletes from around the globe in this event highlighted by current Mexican flyweight champion Alexa Grasso’s first defense which is a rematch with former champion Valentina Shevchenko who Grasso submitted to earn the title this past March.

Last week we realized great displeasure by wagering on the ‘Pleasure man’ Anton Turkalj. We step back in profitability with the goal of enhancing that bottom line with this week’s release.

Champion Alexa Grasso +140 vs. Valentina Schevchenko -165 Women’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

This line opened months ago Schevchenko -225. Immediately after release I advised ‘Bout Business Podcast listeners to attack that Grasso +195 price. As we can see that price is long gone and the current number depicts a more realistic price on this bout in my judgement.

Shevchenko’s shown an ebb in her effectiveness for a couple of fights now and intertwined with that slight erosion of skill has been the evolution of seeing Valentina in evening wear, out on the town and actually enjoying life a little bit.

While she’s surely earned that right, I can only relay what I was taught by ol’ Angelo Dundee many years ago and I have found this to be so true of fighters.

Dundee would warn of the paradox in this manner; once a fighter who started with little to nothing earns the reputation and rich’s they’ve longed for from their fighting success, it’s that notoriety, money and distraction coming from the public accolades that end up diluting the fighter’s skills. Yes, success corrodes and dulls the focus, drive, desire of championship level fighters.

Valentina’s mind knows she can overcome most any obstacle because previously she has always been able to overcome any obstacle. However, she’s now thirty-five and has been competing with absolutely every world class adversary the organization put in front of her since 2015.

Valentina’s well rounded, she’s highly intelligent and keenly driven. In this fight it will be 70% of her pride yearning to recapture that title substantiated with 30% grit, determination and nasty.

For Grasso, she’s has months to reprepare for this second challenge. The old boxing saying that fighters become 35% better once they clasp the championship is not inaccurate in my judgement.

In March Grasso utilized speed, timing and her specific plan for success which ended up being enough to earn her the title. So now Grasso and camp know they had the formula to defeat the unbeatable ‘Bullet’ Valentina but as they enter the cage for this tussle, how will they adjust if at all?

Different in this fight is the pressure Grasso will carry into the cage for not only is she fighting the former champion but the crowd will be chalk full of Mexican fight enthusiasts all yearning to see their fighter dominate. So yes, there is pressure on Grasso entering this rematch.

Once the bell rings for this bout I look for Valentina to immediately try to bully Gasso and back her up.

Grasso will need to face the fire but she’ll realize too that it’s in her best interest to bully the bully, Valentina! In fact, Grasso taking this fight to Valentina seems a great way to instill doubt immediately into the Russian’s mind and let her know immediately that the ‘orgullo de los Mexicanos’ or Mexican pride will inspire Grasso in her attempt to retain her title.

Grasso +195 was surely a wrong price. Grasso +150 is more in line. It’s difficult for me to recommend Grasso +150 when I already hold her +195 so I’ll look to a bout other than tis main event to pad 2023 profitability.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -155

This price indicates a potentially close, competitive decision

Tracy Cortez -125 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicious +105 women’s flyweight

Tracy Cortez comes from a family of wrestlers. Her forward pressure, clinch attack and cardio are what one would expect from a top end grinding wrestler.

Cortez has faced decent UFC caliber foes and she’s shown an ability to press the pace and utilize her wrestling in the cage. The issue here however is that this is mixed martial arts competition and Cortez, though apt as a pressure wrestler, is lacking with her striking and strike evasion which offers opponents a singularly versed opponent.

Jasmine enters this fight the larger lady, the older fighter and the athlete with deeper experience. She’s also been in the cage with a higher caliber set of opponents. Jasmine is coming off an impressive victory over another forward pressing wrestling- based athlete in Miranda Maverick, one I handicap to be at or above the ability of Ms. Cortez. The Maverick bout could not have come at a better time for Jasmine for it is a terrific precursor to Ms. Cortez as both are very similar in fighting style.

Jasmine’s experience, her size, the absolute bad intention she carries and above all her effective power striking will be the difference in this fight as she’s seen fighters similarly equipped as Cortez. Meanwhile Jasmine represents a substantial step up in class for Cortez and one that will do all she can to finish this fight.

The contention here is that Jasudavicious should be the athlete with the minus next to her name so I find it advantageous to invest in Jasudavicious +105.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -350

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops every Friday there is a UFC fight card. This week the Pod will be available around 1pm PT!

Enjoy the fights and Thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Uncategorized

I believe in Deion Sanders

It’s been many years since I handicapped college football however, I do pay enough attention to know that Arizona University is on its way to national standing, I believe the SEC is unmatched in level of player and level of play and I believe the rich will continue to get richer in the CFB sphere.

Now with that said, no one other than Deion could come into the quagmire of status quo college football and turn the world on it’s head like Sanders did, is doing and will continue to do.

Deion came to Colorado to create a feeder program for the NFL and in months he’s created the foothold to become THE MODEL for farm system NFL players.

Those who continue to be stubborn and find fault in Colorado’s opponents, approach or head coach they’d better understand that what we saw last Saturday was not An Apex for Colorado’s football team but a floor.

I spent time in football huddles from 1966 to 1993 and I fully, comprehensively, and concretely believe in Deion, his aptitude as a coach and the success that will immediately come his way.

Sanders is turning CFB on its head and those that are stubborn and refuse to believe come mostly from the ‘never been in a huddle before’ crowd.

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories NFL, Profitability, UFC

Money Morning: UFC sweep!

This week in the UFC ‘Bout Business Podcast did something that happens rarely, it swept the board. Interestingly it was done on a night when favorites ran 10-1 in the UFC. What’s more interesting than that was that all of the releases offered Saturday were chalk positions!

‘Bout Business Podcast enthusiasts realized a 3-0 +3.43u evening.

2023 BBP totals: 75-72 +23.81u 16%ROI (+128)

It’s not too late to step in and realize bottom line profitability from the last quarter of the UFC year!

My lesson learned from this past week is to get back to my underdog basics immediately while continuing to take advantage of the menu’s offered by the major sportsbooks which allow me to both obtain betting advantage while simultaneously providing that betting insight to loyal fight enthusiasts.

Tomorrow: I talk al about Deion…and yes, I am a believer!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Paris Gane vs. Spivak: French toast?

This week the UFC returns to Paris, France after an outstanding fight card from Singapore last week where favorites rolled to another big night realizing a 10-3 result.

Nine athletes on this fight slate are making debuts or in the case of Rhys McKee debuting in his second stint in the UFC so there are but a handful actionable bouts in my judgement. I’ll choose to use the fights populated with debutants as ‘due diligence’ bouts where I collect the data for future consideration.

Favorite’s this year in the UFC stand 213-104-14 or 64.3%.

Michal Oleksiejczuk +100 did in fact weather a furious first few minutes from his opponent last Saturday before KO’ing the brute in the first round. Michal O pushes profitability for the year back into the black!

14-13 +0.15 for 2023

Cyril Gane -160 vs. Sergey Spivak +140 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Gane, ranked number two in the heavyweight rankings has been impressive since hitting the heavyweight scene in 2019. He ran into Jon Jones this past March and was quickly shown that to compete against the elite in the UFC a fighter must be complete physically and mentally.

In his evolution Gane has shown aptitude with his athleticism, skill and stand-up ability and in this bout, we’ll witness how much growth there has been in his ability to defend take downs then once down, display an ability to get back up to his feet for this is the fulcrum to this fight!

A fighter with an elite kick boxing base, Gane is a unique specimen for he moves like a middleweight yet possesses the striking power of a heavyweight delivered with precision, speed, ferocity and intent.

Gane relies on deft footwork, evasive defense and precision volume striking often set up by the employment of damaging kicks to effectively maim opponents. From there compromised foes immobility further allows the nimbler Gane to close in for the stoppage.

A professional fighter since 2018, Gane’s 8-2 in the UFC and finds himself with a great opportunity in this bout to show the fight community that he’s addressed his lack of grappling defense off the heels of that magnificent gag against Jones.

In Spivak, Gane gets a similarly sized wrestling/grappling versed opponent who does have power in his hands but is not a natural striker. Winner of his last three straight and seven of his last eight, Spivak arrives with great momentum and a specific plan laid out by Jon Jones on how to defeat Gane.

Spivak will be focused on pressuring Gane, trying to negate his space, press him backwards then clasp onto him. The floor is ultimately where Spivak wants to take Gane for Spivak’s size and wrestling/grappling aptitude will provide him great advantage there.

Where Gane is quick, precise, athletic and fluid Spivak is premeditated, telegraphing and awkward on the feet. Standing and at distance is the last place Spivak can allow this fight to be contested for he needs to make this a slow dance at the high school prom or he’ll be shredded.

By Grappling Spivak can usurp some of the speed, zip and flash from Gane and in fact this is exactly his path to victory. He must find a way to wear the Frenchman down in order to make him more susceptible to Spivak’s grappling.

Once this fight begins it’s my belief that Gane’s athleticism, speed and focus off that loss will be on display only as long as it takes for Spivak to embrace him.

What remains to be seen is if Gane’s ability to defend a formidable take down attempt has been addressed since the Jones fight and any decent MMA trainer will tell you that the answer to that is a simple ‘NO’.

Spivak, though no Jon ‘Bones’ Jones is a formidable grappler whose immediate fight future lies in his ability to ground Gane in this bout. Will he be able to do so?

Gane opened -215 for this fight so there’s early Spivak interest in the market. Gane is currently priced -165 looks inviting but I’m wary of Spivak in this spot despite the fact that this fight in in Gane’s backyard.

I’ll await props for this bout but must say that this is no layup for Gane.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -260

Points: not available yet

Benoit St. Denis -155 vs. Thiago Moises +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

The fact that neither of these killers is ranked in the UFC’s Lightweight top fifteen seems to be proof that the lightweight division in the UFC is populated with nothing but world class talent.

In Brazilian Moises we get an elite grappler who is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Eight of Moises seventeen professional wins have come via submission, three by KO.

Moises employs his stand-up game to set up his grappling for on the feet he realizes a negative strike differential (-1.5 significant strikes per minute) allowing 3.9 significant strikes per minute while connecting with only 2.4 significant strikes per minute.

Moises has had success against the middle tier of the division but when he steps into competition with top fifteen competition he has faltered. Moises enters this bout off two straight victories and it’s probable that the winner of this battle cracks into that top fifteen of the division.

In southpaw St. Denis we get an athlete that grew up with a father who was a judo instructor and if that was not enough this is a man is a former Navy Seal in the French military so not only can this man impose himself physically, mentally he cannot be overtaken.

St. Denis is a black belt in Judo and a brown belt in BJJ, he strikes with more volume/power than does his opponent but he also realizes a negative significant strike differential of -1.9 significant strikes per minute.

St. Denis is huge for the division and he’ll be much the larger man in the cage Saturday. He holds eleven professional victories of which nine have come via submission. Further, St. Denis has had success against Brazilian athletes with BJJ backgrounds though in this matchup it’s reasonable to believe that St. Denis will need to keep this fight standing.

Once this fight begins it will be Moises quickness and athleticism in competition against the forward pressure and striking aggression of St. Denis. On the feet St. Denis will need to crowd Moises press him against the cage and fight the Brazilian in close until he can soften him up and then attempt to take him out.

For Moises he’ll want to maintain distance in order to kick and counter the aggressive Frenchman on his way into engage for Moises must get this bout to the mat in order to realize success in my judgement.

Moises is durable, crafty and savvy and has only been submitted against current champion Makhachev. Each man will have difficulty finishing the other but the St. Denis size, ferocity and high-pressure pace coupled with a seasoned French crowd are the difference in this fight for me.

This bout opened St. Denis -120 and on Sunday I released St. Denis -125 with the feeling that this price would be higher by the time I submitted this column. St. Denis is currently -145 and rising…

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Under -135 after opening -155.

Points: not available yet

GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast: +20.38u 14% ROI (+128) on the year.

This week the Podcast drops midday Friday as the start time for the fights Saturday is 9am PT

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

Money Morning: Accounting for profit

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast results ran 3-3 for a net loss of 0.31u last week however….rather than having won a small amount by using a full unit wager on Anthony Smith, we take the small loss knowing we hold Manon Fiorot .5u for 1.08 units in hand heading into this week’s fight card from Paris.

Remember fight enthusiasts, it’s a marathon not a sprint! Fiorot is currently a -190 favorite.

‘Bout Business Season profitability: 72-72 +20.38u 14% ROI  (+128)

Wednesday I’ll post my early look into the Paris, France fight card.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Singapore: Holloway vs. Jung: Fight Zombie

UFC 292 shook the rafters in Boston’s TD Garden when after favorites steamrolled to a 9-1 start, they were thwarted by new champion Sean O’Malley’s counter right hand that was lighting fast, pinpoint precise and landed flush dropping Aljamain Sterling to his teeth. The finish came soon afterward for the new champion.

O’Malley now becomes the superstar the UFC and he have been envisioning. It remains to be determined if the UFC forces their new cash cow to perform against elite talent or with potentially handpicked opponents that may prove less threatening to the more singularly dimensioned O’Malley.

This week the Organization travels to Singapore for a production that will begin with preliminary action at 2am PST Saturday with main card dropping at 5am PT so prepare for early morning mauling from Singapore!

This fight card features many eastern hemisphere fighters many of which are making their debuts or are still very new into the UFC.  The card overall offers a handful of brilliant matchups.

This card excites me because handicapping diverse fighting skills coupled with athletes from diverse countries of origin is one of the most fascinating aspect of betting MMA bouts in my judgement.

We have a South Korea vs. Holland opening fight, a Dominican against a Pole heavyweight tussle as well as a Japan vs. a Mexico bantamweight bout set of the main card.

Don’t sleep on this fight card people!

UFC profitability to date: 13-13 -0.85u

Max Holloway -850 vs. Sung Yung Chan aka Korean Zombie +550 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Matchmaking for this main event had to be difficult for the UFC as they’re keenly focused on electrifying crowds with local/regional matchups often times placing selected regional talent into somewhat favorable positions for the benefit of fans.

In Singapore we get an eastern hemisphere favorite in the Zombie, currently ranked tenth in the division. More importantly the thirty-six-year-old Jung is from South Korea respectfully called for this fight and enters a large underdog with the opportunity to try to electrify the crowd as young O’Malley did last week.

Jung is decorated like a Christmas tree, he’s a 3rd dan black belt in Hapkido, a 2nd dan black belt in Taekwondo, a Black belt in Judo as well he holds a Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu so he’s surely capable on his best night to find any opponent with volume, power and constancy.

Further his reputation in the region is unmatched based on the ferocity of his fight outcomes. Jung has Eight Performance of the Night bonuses, the fastest knockout in Featherweight history, he accomplished the first Twister in UFC history and has been a two-time title challenger.

In Holloway we have one of the greatest featherweight talents of all time, it just so happens that he and Alexander Volkanovski had to dwell in the same era.

Max does not have the listed decorations in various mixed martial arts specialties as does his opponent for he is simply a brown belt in BJJ. However, Holloway will be the younger man in the cage by better than five years, he’s 4” taller, holds an arm reach advantage of 3”, 4” with legs so physical and statistical advantage all favor Holloway.

Holloway came up fighting in the streets of Hawaii which by the way is no easy undertaking as Hawaiian culture has fighting in its DNA.  Holloway’s fighting skills may not be described by the awards, belts or degrees he has earned rather it can be described by his success against the world class competition he’s faced.

Holloway is a professor of fight tactics. He’s a deft boxer who knows how to shred opponents with his piston like jab which of course set’s up his combination attack. He applies ridiculous forward pressure to corner opponents then unleash slicing elbows, crushing knees and numbing kicks.

Holloway’s length, experience and aggressive combination striking have been what’s differentiated him from all but champion Volkanovski and it’s what’s differentiating him in this fight from Jung.

At thirty-one Holloway is out to prove that he has plenty of career remaining in him. He’s is a fighter from the American islands who will draw anywhere he fights.

The passionate fight fans in attendance will all be wanting to see their man, ‘the Zombie’ try to do to Holloway what only Volkanovski’s been able to do to him as a featherweight which seems a tall order from this perspective.

Holloway opened -950 for this fight and the total is set at 2.5Rds Over -225.

Points: Holloway -5.5 -350

Chidi Njokuani -120 vs. Michael Oleksiejczuc +100 Middleweight (185lbs.)

I’m glad I am writing this and not pronouncing it!

In this fight we have the American Njokuani who is a hulking 6’3”, ill-intentioned power striker. Not only will he be the larger man in the cage Saturday he’ll also hold a 6” reach advantage in what appears to be a classic stand up fight.

Michael O is a ‘don’t judge a book by its cover’ fighter because he’s a somewhat of squirrely looking fellow but the experienced Polish striker competed in his early career at light heavyweight where he displayed focus, will and the ability to absorb heavy strikes.

At 205lbs, Michael O was very undersized but he fought like a wolverine cornered while competing against those larger fighters. Mikeal O has immense power in his hands, he’s willing to set up in the pocket and exchange Sunday shots, and he sports a granite beard.

Once the bell for round one rings Michael O will need to hunt cautiously early and be aware that his best chance to win is to get Chidi into the second round. Njokuani’s power is profuse, his pressure is constant and he knows no caution so challenging him early in a firefight is unwise.

Positive news for Michael O is that he’s already faced threats that hulked over him so this middleweight monster is no larger than the light heavies Michael O has been in with already.

Njokuani’s size and ferocity of fight will be nothing new to Michael O in fact I believe it motivates him to bring his best performance and that’s exactly what I believe he offers us Saturday.

Weather that early firestorm Michael!

Michael Oleksiejczuk +100

Total in this fight: 2.5 Under -245 (opened -215) so the wise guys feel like someone may be going to sleep here.

Points:

This week GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops early Friday morning because of the early Saturday AM start time of the bouts.

‘Bout Business also holds Blanchfield +114 as leg 2 incoming parlay!

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability

Money Morning: Weekly profitability report

Accounting for every wager, their result and conducting detailed accounting is foundational if one is going to compete with bookmakers for profitability.

For decades I have published results each Monday in my ‘Money Morning’ column.

To date few, very few handicappers record their results let alone publish them which should make any onlooker wary as to whether said handicapper is selling ‘picks’ for their own self-interest as most do or if they are trying to emulate my model which is based solely on modern business practices.

Specifically, all I have done for the last decade plus is deliver profitability to followers. In the future, that’s what I’ll continue to do!

Let’s account:

Favorites in the UFC including last week’s 9-2 favorite result stand: 203-101-14 or 63.8%

Last week in the UFC I realized a 3-3 +1.06u result.

To date in 2023 ‘Bout Business Podcast profitability stands: 69-69 +20.64u 15% ROI (+130)

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 292 Sterling vs. O’Malley: Drowned Sugar?

UFC 292 takes place this week from Boston, MA. The thirteen-bout fight card is rife with competitive matchups and it features two, five round world championship title bouts.

Last week favorites realized a 9-4 result making favorites on the year: 194-99-14 or 63% which is about average for a typical UFC year. Last year’s 67.5% favorite result appears to be just an outlier.

Aljamain Sterling -260 vs. Sean O’Malley +210 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

There are layers to this bout but whittled down to its most common denominator what we have here in Sterling is an elite all world grappler/wrestler who is an effective striker, he’s massive for the division and with his size comes incredible strength supplemented by cardio that is seemingly unending.

Sterling’s one of the most lethal bantamweight fighters in UFC history. He’s been in with the absolute elite of the division and has cleaned them all, he’s extremely intelligent, focused and he arrives swelling with confidence based on who he has defeated and who he is facing Saturday.

In second ranked O’Malley we have a long, tall athlete who effectively controls space/distance by utilizing his athleticism and fluidity of movement. O’Malley will be the younger, longer, quicker athlete in the cage Saturday.

Once this fight begins O’Malley’s unique fighting style will be on display. He’ll flow and parry to create striking angles. His use of unorthodox timing to try to stun, surprise and bewilder the incoming Sterling with straight strikes and kicks.

O’Malley’s a more singularly versed mixed martial artist despite the fact that he’s trained extensively on his take down defense and ability to get back to his feet.

O’Malley acknowledges openly that his priority in this bout is to absolutely NOT allow Sterling to clasp onto him, press him against the fence and by all means O’Malley is aware that he must not allow Sterling to drag this fight to the canvas.

If and when he does find himself there, he must be able to return to his feet or this will be a short night.

For Sterling, he will want to take this fight right to O’Malley and in measured, steady, aggressive fashion muscle him backwards and force him to exert his energy defending and evading as opposed to flowing and striking.

The Sterling camp believes that as the fight wears on, O’Malley, who has never been five full rounds and in fact has had cardio issues late in three round bouts, will begin to wane and as he does, Sterling will begin to press more.

Sterling’s focus is to systematically usurp the energy from O’Malley then in the late third or championship rounds when the kid is gassed and gored, find a way to take his back then choke him into unconsciousness.

O’Malley’s camp realizes (rightfully so) that Sterling cuts massive amounts of weight to make 135lbs. Further, they in conjunction with the UFC cooked up the idea that this fight should take place immediately on the heels of Sterling’s dominant title defense against Henry Cejudo in June!

Sterling and camp feel pressured into the very quick turn around here and have stated that the result of this will be that he’ll take it out on O’Malley who Sterling states is in this position only because of his ‘Dana privilege’.

Privileged or not, these two tussle Saturday and without question the weigh-ins are of ultra-importance in this one so I’ll hold off until later this week to make any position on this bout.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -165

Points: Sterling -5.5 -130

Zhang Weili -310 vs. Amanda Lemos +250 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.) title

Champion Zhang won the title back in her last fight against then champion Carla Esparza. In this her second stint as champion it’s my belief that it will take something quite impressive to defeat her.

Zhang may be the most complete, fully equipped mixed martial artist in the organization. She’s intelligent, a workaholic who lives in the gym. She’s strong as an ox, fast as lightning and tough as a six-dollar steak.

In Brazilian Lemos we have an effective power striker who is forward pressing, aggressive and offensive. Eleven of her thirteen wins have been via the finish because she’ able to keep fights standing. Her take down defense is formidable based on the incredible power in her torso and legs. This allows Lemos to keep fights on the feet where her ferocity, might and power translate into advantage, finishing advantage.

When this fight starts it will be fascinating to watch how Zhang decides to usurp some of the zip from Lemos. Does she do that by counter striking, does she try to wrestle her up?

Either way it’s my judgement that Lemos has about six and a half to seven minutes of fight ending threat in her and it’s in these first minutes that Zhang must be wary and respect.

For Zhang, she needs to ensure that she takes this bout into the second round and beyond for even Zhang with her granite jaw has been slept and a fresh firing Lemos can put anyone in the division’s lights out with one elbow, kick or fist.

Zhang’s ability to use her fight intelligence, employ her full fight arsenal supplemented by her extreme athleticism must be used together to force Lemos to effort early in this fight so that Zhang can go offensive on the Brazilian finisher later as she begins to slow.

Provided Zhang does not run into something early I handicap this bout to be styled much to her favor and I look for Zhang to eventually finish the brazen Brazilian brute.

Zhang via finish -120 (DraftKings)

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Under -175 after opening -140

Points: Zhang -5.5 -195

This week the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday AM across all pod platforms. My final UFC 292 releases can be accessed there!

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming