Last week UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024 when favorites ran above 70%!

As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX where fights are still held in the small twenty-five-foot cage. That mentioned, athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility where the crowds are now slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights prior to the remodel.

This card is schedule for eleven fights, it has only four battles at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above as well there are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater with the most obtuse difference being a SEVENTEEN year between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes and in this case the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.

I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is  in UFC outcomes especially when said youth is complimented with size and length.

Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest itself in every way, shape, and form and in this column weekly we try to expose readers to the nuances of those nuances and advantages.

This LV 109 fight card starts at 1pm PST with the prelims then the main card drops at 4pm PST.

Last week Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world class mixed martial artist.

Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round.

That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now to stack wins together in order to finish this 2025 campaign with enhanced bottom line.

This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on the VSiN digital magazine, the column has realized bottom line profitability in each year since VSiN began and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces fight fans and let’s invest into LV 109!

Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who is able to pivot between both light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.

Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler, his size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level and his striking is power based. Cardio? Well Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in negative fashion.

In this fight Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter fleeter footed athlete. Ideally Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.

Dolidze will/should choose to work the body in order to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful this fight transitions to his favor for he is heavy handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine.

Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event.

His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.

Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically for he overshadows him in significant strike differential, take down ability and take down defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early ten minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first ten minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.

Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism of cardio ability of Hernandez.

At the end of the day Hernandez’ diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which Hernandez wins this bout. I believe a late round finish either ground and pound or submission is in the cards for this fight.

Total in this fight is 3.5Rds. Under -115

Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili Featherweight +195 (145lbs.)

Andre ‘Toucy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some twelve years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.

Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire and at the ripe fighting age of thirty-five, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.

Fili will be the taller athlete in this matchup as well, the longer, fighter which he is used to. However, Fili’s height once a great advantage to him when younger actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion has regressed and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.

In Chistian Rodriguez we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick, he has great feet which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.

Rodriguez’ last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.

While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years the younger fresher fighter force me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.

This week’s investment: A parlay

Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320

1.15u to earn 1.02u

Total in this bout stands 2.5Rds Over -220

Rodriguez is NOT overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO so tread carefully with this total.

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business

The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.

This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.

As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.

On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.

So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.

There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.

Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.

Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title

JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.

A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.

In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.

What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.

Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.

At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.

Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.

Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.

Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.

Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”

So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.

JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.

While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.

The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.

Muhammad -180

This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.

Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200

Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title

Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.

Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.

Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.

It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.

Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.

I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.

Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310

Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u

Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)

Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!

Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.

Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.

The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.

I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.

Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

All Circa pricing

The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.

The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.

Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.

Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.

Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.

The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.

Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.

Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.

In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?

This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.

Emmett +280 .5u

Patience as this number keeps rising

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190

Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event

Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.

Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.

Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.

Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.

The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.

Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.

Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.

Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.

The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.

Brito -210

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195

Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)

This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!

In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.

In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.

The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.

Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.

His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.

Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.

Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?

Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195

Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

GambLou

It’s Business!