Welcome fight enthusiasts to the ‘Sneak’Teep’ podcast where I break down notable line moves for each UFC fight card. The ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast is free to all and accessible here at GambLou.com. Just tap on the podcast link below!
Advantage investing or Action man?
Today’s theme revolves around the discipline to pull the trigger on a bet when the advantage is yours…. DO NOT acquiesce and let the ‘Makers or the talking heads being paid by them talk you into making NFL wagers in June when camps have not even begun yet.
It’s May and we’re entering the dog days of summer investors.
Sportsbooks have posted NFL win totals and week one numbers to entice those who are not disciplined and are itching for action to wager now on any aspect of the NFL.
My word of caution is this.
Betting NFL win totals now is suicide….especially if one invests in over wagers then you simply hate your money.
Is it possible to plinco your way into advantage now?
Sure, but you tie up your money, then run the risk that injury, trade or some other unforeseen act may disrupt the team you have wagered on.
Betting now means you are hoping… not handicapping.
Due Diligence, Selectivity, Money Management…. The fulcrum of bottom line profit in sports wagering!
GambLou.com
It’s Business!
UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena: Ring that Belal
The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.
This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.
As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.
On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.
So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.
There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.
Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.
Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title
JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.
A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.
In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.
What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.
Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.
At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.
Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.
Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.
Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.
Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”
So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.
JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.
While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.
The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.
Muhammad -180
This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.
Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200
Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title
Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.
Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.
Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.
She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.
It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.
Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.
I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.
Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310
Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u
Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)
Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!
Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.
Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.
The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.
I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.
Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
All Circa pricing
UFC FN Des Moines Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo: Nickal plated nine trigger
Des Moines, IA. hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo event. This slate has twelve scheduled bouts to be held in the large octagon in front of a crowd full of voracious Iowa fight fans.
Besides three regional/local fighters competing on this card, we will also be privileged enough to watch athletes shipping in from Norway, The Netherlands, Wales, and Vietnam to compete in the heartland so getcha popcorn ready!
Last week we earned two units to bring digital results to 10-11, -1.45u to date. Let us keep the momentum flowing into Des Moines!
Cory Sandhagen -455 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +365 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event
Figueiredo, after having left the flyweight division for the Bantamweight division, is ranked fifth after going 1-1 in two bouts against athletes in the division’s top fifteen.
Fighting professionally since 2012 Figueiredo sports a depth of UFC experience, an aggressive, power based striking acumen and a black belt in BJJ. He is well rounded, durable and with a victory here could elevate himself into title consideration and the stacked division’s top five.
In Sandhagen, however, Figgy has drawn one bad card.
Sandhagen is in his prime at thirty-three years of age and his four-year youth edge coupled with a two-inch reach and six-inch height advantage together provide him great striking benefits. Sandhagen, a man that trains in Denver’s elevation is himself a brown belt in BJJ so together, his size, his fight weaponry and his depth of UFC experience competing against this divisions top five together force me to regard Sandhagen as a legitimate favorite in this bout and a candidate for the next title shot should he defeat Figueiredo.
Sandhagen will rely upon his fluidity of movement, his length and guile to keep the incoming Brazilian slugger in space where the Sandhagen offensive fight arsenal is most effective.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over
Mason Jones -550 vs. Jeremy Stephens +425 Lightweight (155lbs)
Des Moines native Stephens comes back to the UFC to fight in his own back yard for a couple reasons. One, because he will help pack the gym with locals as well, he will do in this fight what he does in all his fights… and that is to provide forward pressing, offensive striking violence.
Stephens at thirty-eight still has the will, the fortitude and the aggression to compete in the world’s largest fighting organization but it’s his fight skills, his ability to withstand a flush fist to the face and his cardio that together make him susceptible to any true young ascending athlete.
In Jones, Stepehen’s gets such an ascending talent. Jones is tough as iron with a granite jaw, he has a well-rounded fight arsenal and packs profuse power in his hands.
On the floor for a roll or on the feet to force his adversary into retreat, Jones, who has been away from the organization to improve his skills (a scary thought) should absolutely pulverize Stephens in this fight.
I believe Jones’ approach will be to ground the midwestern mauler then reign ground and pound upon him in unrelenting fashion.
When the bell for round one rings you best be watching this fight because these men will each look to disintegrate the other.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -120
Meisha Tate -135 vs. Yana Santos +115 Woman’s Bantamweight (135lbs.)
Santos has had two fights since 2023 after having a child. She is 1-1 in those bouts. She enters this fight understanding that the Meisha Tate name can propel her into the divisions top fifteen with a win or find her free falling down the lady’s bantamweight rankings should she be defeated.
Santos has been the more active athlete though each of these ladies enters off considerable time off. For Tate however, her wrestling acumen coupled with her championship pedigree force me to regard the opening price on this fight of a pick-em as flawed.
Currently Tate stands -135 and it is my handicap that her aggressive wrestling and forward pressing attack will be enough to quell the journeyman-like skills possessed by Santos.
The total in this pillow fight is lined 2.5Rds over -400 so a decision seems more than likely here.
Tate via decision is a strong consideration here but props are not yet released so we will use…
Tate -135
1u to return .74u
Friday at midday PT my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. We are off four straight winning weeks, so the time is now to jump in for investment advice.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!
GambLou
It’s Business
2025 Stanley Cup Tournament: The greatest tournament in Sport
The Stanley Cup Playoff Tournament, ‘Puck Passion Season’ begins Saturday April 19th.
Each NHL Playoff season I utilize specific data lifted from the set of all regular season games to provide the basis for my NHL Playoff releases.
This year I am highly motivated to derive profit from these playoffs as last year was the first in some twenty years that I did not derive profit from this most dynamic bracketed tournament.
Those wishing to see last year’s result need only tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of this webpage to view as well I have previous years data available for any interested parties…
I would love to forward 2023 results for that was a banner Puck Passion year.
The ‘NHL” tab at the top of this webpage is the key.
It navigates you to and through the registration process. Direct questions to Lou@GambLou.com.
I’ll be posting all Cup, Series and game to game wagers through this webpage so ensure you are signed up and have access by Saturday April 19th when my initial releases will be available (perhaps sooner).
Oh Canada!
UFC LV105 Emmett vs. Murphy: Murphy’s Jaw
The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.
The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.
Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.
Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.
Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event
Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.
The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.
Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.
Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.
In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.
Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?
This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.
Emmett +280 .5u
Patience as this number keeps rising
Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190
Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event
Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.
Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.
Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.
Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.
The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.
Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.
Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.
Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.
The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.
Brito -210
Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195
Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)
This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!
In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.
In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.
The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.
Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.
His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.
Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.
Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?
Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195
Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights
GambLou
It’s Business!
UFC LV103 Cannonier vs. Rodrigues: Gorilla in the fist
This week the UFC returns to its APEX center in Las Vegas, NV. where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans are able to attend. Prelims kick off at 1pm PT and the main card starts at 4pm PT.
Of the thirteen scheduled fights, five take place at welterweight or heavier as well fourteen US athletes populate the card with another nine from Brazil.
Last year I moaned incessantly about the 70.5% rate of favorites winning in the UFC. That number has regressed quite aggressively so far in 2025 as favorites stand 27-19-1 or 57.4%.
I dropped two bets last week on dismal dogs but one, Champion Weili Zhang who closed +135 dominated her fight against a singularly dimensioned and overmatched Tatian Suarez.
Digital results stand 2-4 -3.15 on the year.
Gregory Rodrigues -190 vs. Jarod Cannonier +165 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
Cannonier is the seventh ranked middleweight in the division. He’s competed from heavyweight to middleweight throughout his illustrious career and at forty years of age enters a most pivotal fight as his top ten standing lies in jeopardy with a loss here.
Cannonier’s defeated the elite of the division prior to his last two fights. Those losses, to Ciao Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov respectively showed Cannonier to be a true warrior if not an undersized forty-year-old competing against larger, faster, more powerful adversaries.
Saturday, he takes the cage against another highly skilled and dangerous mixed martial artist. This will be Cannoniers the third competition and second main event in eight months! Three in eight is highly active for a thirty-year-old middleweight let alone one that is forty.
Rodrigues, an eight-time amateur BJJ champion in Brazil, arrives to this fight winner of his last three however Rodrigues has not competed against the elite of the division as has his opponent, so this represents a step up in competition for certain.
Rodrigues is a sculpted specimen of a man who carries an abundance of power in any hammer he throws whether elbow, knee, or fist.
‘Robocop’ as Rodrigues is called will hulk over Cannonier. He’s three inches the taller fighter, he will grossly outweigh Cannonier come fight night and he’s the younger man by eight years.
When this fight begins, it will be a battle between the speed, legwork and fight IQ of Cannonier and the methodical, deliberate, forward pressing pressure applied by the aggressive Robocop.
Cannonier’s recent activity (in fact over activity) against elite competition cannot be regarded as advantageous. In fact, his accepting these top-level fights against younger ascending athletes with only weeks in between to recover/recharge is concerning, it tells me he is yearning to earn as opposed to grinding for a title?
Rodrigues -190
Youssef Zalal -380 vs. Calvin Kattar +310 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main
Like the main event this fight presents a contract of styles. In one corner we have a highly skilled, lightning fast, athletic, mixed martial artist in Youssef Zalal. He fights against a large, powerful, forward pressing boxer/striker in Cal Kattar.
Kattar’s last three fights have been against the top ranked fighters in the division. Sterling, Emmett and Allen represent a murders row of elite competition. Kattar went to decision with both Sterling and Allen which is impressive in itself. He was injured in the other fight.
Kattar’s advantages will be his size, experience and power striking.
Zalal in 2022, was released from his first stint in the UFC because he was just an ordinary fighter on a very good day and a poor one on all others.
He spent the next couple of years maturing and realizing that it is his fighting skill not his intellect which would allow him to realize financial success.
By the time Zalal worked his way back into the UFC last March he was a completely different man emotionally and physically. Since his return he’s dominated his last three opponents while stepping up in level of opponent for each bout.
With this fight, Zalal enters the cage in peak form as a fighter against a guy in Kattar who is thirty-six and focused on retaining his standing within the division as opposed to tearing through it.
Zalal’s focus manifested with his speed, footwork and well-rounded fighting ability present too much for a more deliberate yet durable athlete in Kattar as I handicap this fight.
The big question is whether Zalal has a chance to finish the tough Bostonian.
Total in this fight; 2.5Rds Over -240
Jose Delgado -265 vs. Conor Matthews +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Matthews, thirty-two, enters this fight 0-1 in the UFC and hungry to solidify his position in the organization. He’s not overly athletic nor has he competed against high level competition which is what he is going to get in this fight.
Delgado is a young gun from Phoenix who will come into this fight with a lethal striking plan backed up by world class wrestling/grappling. Delgado will be the younger man by six years, the taller fighter by three inches and he’ll hold a reach advantage all of which together add to advantage when these two are standing and striking.
Delgado is just another of the highly talented lighter weight professional athletes training at Phoenix MMALab. He is in a position to shine Saturday as this fight has been placed on the main card.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -200
I’ll release a parlay this week.
Delgado -265/Rodrigues -190 parlay: 1u returns 1.10u
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for each week’s UFC cards. Catch it at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!
2024 All Sports Financial Review:
GambLou.com 2024 financial results are as follows:
2024 GambLou.com Results Summary*
NFL 61-50 $16,765.00* 15% ROI
College World Series 14-13 +3.10u 12.5% ROI
NHL 40-54 -1.50u -2% ROI
UFC final 2024 93-127 -7.0u -2.1% ROI
*(NFL Unit size is 10 times larger than the unit size used for every other sports)
GambLou.com directed 16% of all GROSS income in 2024 to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ. Please read all about my connection to San Xavier by tapping on the San Xavier del Bac Mission tab at the top right of this webpage.
GambLou.com is also financing an under privileged young man’s Catholic education in the Dominican Republic through NPH USA and will continue to do so as long as I am breathing.
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UFC favorites in 2024 realized a 70.5% win rate, as a note Favorites in the UFC have averaged 63%/64% each year for the past fifteen plus years…no excuse just the facts.
GambLou.com
It’s Business
2024 GambLou.com Business report
The GambLou.com 2024 Business report will be posted here Monday. Results for all Sporting investments win/loss, total earnings and ROI all provided.
It’s Business
UFC LV100 Magny vs. Prates: Magny force
Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.
The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.
The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.
Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.
This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.
Underdog correction?
I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.
Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.
Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.
Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.
In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.
His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.
In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.
Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.
Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.
There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.
Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.
So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.
I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205
Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)
Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.
Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.
Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.
He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.
Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s. Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.
If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.
If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.
Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380
Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.
Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.
A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.
Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.
Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.
Trocoli +155 .5u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!