Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 321 Aspinall vs. Gane: Bon Appetit!

UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi UAE.

Fourteen fights are currently scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.

The large thirty-foot cage will be in use and of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170lbs. or above. Three of those larger bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.

This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money and for the four fighters in the co main and main event, hopefully a title!

There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes as well one needs to be aware of each fighter’s age, and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.

Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 11am PT.

Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Bout

Number one ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion in England’s Tom Aspinall.

This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then champion Jon Jones.

The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid opponent’s strikes.

Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!

In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity despite the fact that he arrives here off of a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.

Gane’s going to require this fight remain on the feet for his fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking which compliments his tremendous athleticism.  Gane’s able to move with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger thirty-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.

In Tom Aspinall we get an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing but then at a young age Aspinall discovered BJJ to which he now sports a black belt.

Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might and while he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence and eventually on the canvass Aspinall has few equals.

Once this fight begins it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler for Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability palls in comparison to Aspinall’s world class mastery.

On the feet this fight takes on a much more competitive tone which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory…. the clinch, the cage press then ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.

Gane’s striking and power must be respected here but Aspinall, who has been stiff armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in decisive manner.

Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC a now aged and evasive Jon Jones but now as undisputed Champion Aspinall turns his attention into becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC, I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.

Aspinall via domination.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -190

Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.)  title

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned victory over Jandiroba via decision.

Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had realized success over mid-tier fighting able ladies, but she struggled beating ranked flyweights.

Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record losing only to Amanda Ribas another Brazilian mixed martial artist.

At her base Jandiroba is a world class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage then floor.

In Mackenzie Dern we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant however Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers her pedigree in BJJ already stood out without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at thirty-two.

Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo and the edge when this fight is on the feet will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte,’ BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Derm must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grapple with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.

Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking will allow her to fold both skills into this fight leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.

The world class BJJ prowess of each woman’s BJJ may cancel each other out which then forces the more versed mixed martial artist to enlist complimentary tactics (striking) and that ability lies with Dern.

Dern’s world class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents positions her logically as favorite in this fight.

Total in this battle: 4.5Rds Over -125

Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Wood, an Englishman with a world class BJJ base is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.

Wood’s BJJ is complimented by his wrestling/takedown ability and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!

Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not to the level his BJJ is however Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can navigate this fight around his lack of striking ability and toward his wrestling/BJJ prowess.

Jose Delgado is a special talent.

Fighting out of the MMALab in Pheonix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic advantages physically. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage arms, two inches with his legs.

Delgado trains with a team of world class competitors, all who compete from 135lbs to 170lbs. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world class UFC fighters named O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, Phillips, etc.

Once this fight begins it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.

Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood but why would he engage it a tight close fight when he sports superior advantage standing?

Delgato will be making his first trip out of the Country to fight so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.

An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set off adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.

What a compelling bout!

Delgado -145 1u

Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380 1u returns 1.12u

Friday morning first thing the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 320 Ankalaev vs. Pereira: The REMATCH

This week the UFC is in Las Vegas for UFC 320 a PPV event featuring fourteen great mixed martial arts fights headlined by two five round championship bouts. One, a bantamweight title fight in the co main event and second, the main event which give us the long-anticipated rematch of Magomed Ankalaev the current UFC Light Heavyweight titleholder facing the former champion in Alex Pereira.

All fourteen bouts will be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of a boisterous Las Vegas T Mobile arena crowd.

There are seven fights featuring welterweight men and larger which I track because of the higher percentage of finishes for the larger bodied fighters. There are also a few fights featuring fighters with substantial age differences (five or more years) that are of note.

Early Prelims for UFC 320 begin at 3pm PT with Prelims at 5pm PT and finally the PPV portion of the card dropping 7pm PT.

Magomed Ankalaev -240 vs. Alex Pereira +200 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title

Russian Light heavyweight Champion Ankalaev is an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA and a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo. He enters this fight brimming with confidence after having defeated Pereira this past March in relatively one-sided affair.

Ankalaev fights with ‘grappling on his mind’ and while he is effective and powerful with his striking, he is not overly quick, precise, or dazzling in that specialty. Ankalaev relies heavily on his kicking attack as an effective weapon to not only create distance but also back opponents up so he may earn his way into the pocket and transition to his vice grip wrestling ability.

Ankalaev will be the slightly shorter man giving up reach in this fight so the metrics for his success means he must work his way into the pocket and squelch the reach/striking length and thus effectiveness of ‘Poatan’ in order for him to realize success in this fight. He seemed to have little problem gaining inside position in their first fight so it will be interesting to see what if any adjustments each combatant bring to this rematch.

For Pereira, the story is that in UFC competition, his grappling/wrestling and BJJ were only adequate and nowhere near the level of expertise that he holds with his world class kickboxing, Muay Thai striking abilities.

In their first fight it’s my belief that Pereira’s travel and UFC appearances (he missed few UFC events) impeded his ability to train effectively for their first bout especially when we saw how lethargic and listless he looked in battle.

That mentioned we must heap some credit on Ankalaev for basically beating Pereira at his own game…the stand up!

Will Ankalaev utilize a wrestling/grappling heavy approach for this fight in order to change it up on Periera or will he walk the former champion down on the feet in order to corner him and force pressure onto the Brazilian striker in order to sap him of his snap and power?

Pereira’s height, reach and precision power striking/kicking must be utilized more effectively in this fight to back Ankalaev up then appropriating distance, reign damage on the current titleholder.

Ankalaev for his part must back up Periera with forward pressure, constant clutching and even though he did not take Pereira down in the first fight it is my judgement that he will need to in order to retain his title in this bout.

For Pereira, he needs to arrive more prepared to fight in a war, he must utilize his footwork to maintain ideal striking distance then try to time power punches, knees, and elbows onto the incoming grappler when he attempts to force his way inside.

Ankalaev’s Sambo and unrelenting forward pressure must be dealt with and Periera’s adjustments from the first fight will need to be addressed by the current champion as well.

While Pereira’s been training BJJ, and wrestling take down defense with Glover Teixeira constantly we saw little of that art in the first fight as Ankalaev effectively beat Pereira at his own game…stand up striking!

Ankalaev is a fighter with world class mixed martial arts ability however his aura is as exciting as old cardboard.

Ankalaev does not move the public needle in the slightest and while that should never apply in any modern mixed martial arts competition the fact is that the UFC bonus’ fighters for exciting finishes, devastating knockouts and crowd crazed performances of which Ankalaev has never been apt at.

Meanwhile Pereira’s aura, his devasting power and his public following DO move the UFC needle and make little mistake that this rematch was set up to give Pereira (and the UFC) a shot at winning that title back in order to breath fire and intensity into the division again.

Intangibles like this may seem remote and obscure but make little mistake in the fact that the UFC really wants/needs Pereira back as titleholder in order to ‘move the needle’ on viewership for future title shots because with Ankalaev this division is dried out and dormant. Unfortunate but true.

Can ‘Poatan’ find his ‘Chama’ and get the light heavyweight title back in his hands and inject excitement and eyeballs back into the division?

His camp as well the UFC sure hope so!

Ankalaev opened -200 for their first fight and he opened -180 for this one. He now stands -240 with the takeback on Pereira +200.

I am fascinated to determine what Periera will do and can do to change the result of the fight they competed in this past March.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -170, the March fight’s total was 2.4 and the result was a decision.

Merab Dvalishvili -380 vs. Cory Sandhagen +325 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

Sandhagen is the forth ranked bantamweight in the division. He is a tall, long highly agile striker who utilizes his length and body frame as effectively as anyone in the organization.

Decorated with a brown belt in BJJ Sandhagen is also highly dangerous on the ground because of the combination of his grappling experience and his physically freakish length.

Sandhagen sports a +1.66 significant strike differential to go along with his take down average of 1,30 per fifteen minutes of fight time. About the only susceptibility Sandhagen has is that because of his unusual length he is open to opponents take downs for he is effective in stopping the takedown only 62% of the time.

In Georgian champion Merab Dvalishvili we get a short, squat, highly motivated cardio machine who is gifted with unbelievable cardio ability, world class wrestling acumen and in the cage, an extremely aggressive nature.

Merab owns the record in the UFC for takedowns as he has realized 97 of them in fifteen UFC bouts for an average of 5.84 take downs per fifteen minutes of fight time.

In fights Merab puts new meaning to ‘unrelenting forward pressure’ a term I use to describe aggressive wrestlers.

Once this fight begins I handicap Sandhagen attempting to use his length, athletic nature and all his savvy to try to maintain striking distance in order to club, knee and elbow Dvalishvili as he rushes to engage in the takedown.

Space, distance and striking will be Sandhagen’s allies in this fight while Merab will strive to enter the pocket on the challenger, clasp onto him then drag him to the floor for a trip to hell.

Dvalishvili is a gifted wrestler who understands that the UFC is looking for excitement and flash finishes. His only potential pitfall in this fight is to believe that he can stand and strike with a much taller man that is a more refined, specialized, and precise striker.

In this fight Merab needs to stick to his strength, come out and ground Sandhagen then put him into the meat grinder for as long as Sandhagen can survive.

Should he come out swinging he could find himself being carried out on his shield.

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -325

I’ll take the easy route this week and play a main event parlay:

Ankalaev -240 to Dvsalishvili -380 1.28u to earn 1u

Unusual as it is, I am unable to feel confident in any underdog releases this early in the UFC 320 week. Friday my ‘Bout Business Podcast drops and I’m certain to have located a stray mutt or two by then.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Perth: Beatdown on the Boorloo

After a week off, the UFC travels to Perth, Australia for this week’s Fight night event.

The card offers fight enthusiasts fourteen bouts thirteen of which feature an athlete from Oceania facing someone from outside that region. There are few fights featuring wide gaps in age which by the numbers favor the younger fighter.

Seven of the fourteen fights will be held at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Larger men competing translates to a higher rate of finishing potential which will thrill the voracious Aussie crowd who will pack the house to back their compatriots all of whom will compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon.

Prelims begin at 4pm PT with the main slate scheduled to begin at 7pm PT.

Carlos Ulberg -260 vs. Dominic Reyes +220 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Third ranked Ulberg arrives to compete in front of his brethren. He arrives with a statuesque physique, sharp effective kickboxing prowess, and tremendous momentum.

His father, a boxer, raised Ulberg in the sweet science before Ulberg transitioned into kickboxing where his 6’4” frame, his wild athleticism, and his aggressive nature could thrive, and dominate.

Ulberg is undefeated as a professional save for his UFC debut where he was finished by Kennedy Nzechukwu who has now moved up to heavyweight. Since that fight Ulberg’s torn through the division winning eight straight against legitimate but not world class competition save for the two recent victories over Volkan Oezdimer and Jan Blachowicz both of which were decisions.

Ulberg’s fight plan is simple, maintain precious distance which allows him to attack opponents with straight fists, ‘teep’ kicks and any array of knees and elbows. Ulberg is quite agile and quick for his size which magnifies his natural power.

One comment about Ulberg’s competition that must be mentioned is that the UFC has spoon fed this striker with like-minded adversaries (fellow strikers) as Ulberg to date has yet to face any athlete who arrives with the ambition of wrestling/grappling Ulberg.

It’s my judgement that the UFC in its ambition to ‘encourage’ mixed martial arts growth in this geographical area has manicured Ulberg’s schedule to ‘contribute’ to his ascent in the division especially since the fall off of previous champions in the region Israel Adesanya and Alexander Volkanovski.

Californian Dom Reyes is best known for beating Jon Jones but not receiving the actual decision via judges.

A swoon followed that fight as Reyes went to the dark side losing in violent fashion to competent ranked adversaries, but he remained focused and confident in his approach and in his ability to compete in this division.

He now finds himself ranked seventh among light heavy’s and he’ll soon be in the cage with third-ranked Ulberg after having won his last three battles.

Reyes and Ulberg are quite similar in all the physical aspects of fighting that I track. Reyes’ background in wrestling gives him some advantage should this fight hit the mat but in all reality this will be a stand-up match and one where Reyes’s skills are being discounted and overlooked as I handicap this fight.

Reyes’ level of competition faced plus the fact that he did not fold up after those colossal losses years ago tells me the guy wants to be here.

He wants to be champion, and after the display he produced against then champion Jones years back his belief now after three wins is strong. The results Reyes has earned in his last three fights allow me to handicap him as being more competitive than current pricing indicates.

This fight reminds me a little of the Johnny Walker fight in China when he was set up to be the patsy for Mingyang Zhang and he ended up winning via finish.

Reyes has the tools, the experience, the belly but most importantly the belief to make this fight so much more of a battle than the marketplace is giving him credit for.

There is value on Dom Reyes at this price.

Reyes +220

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

As mentioned above this card is basically an Oceania vs. the World set up.

We understand that the goal here is to put the local/regional fighters in favorable positions but with fourteen opportunities it’s my role to find a ‘ship in’ that will arrive live to their battle and earn victory.

Justin Tafa -125 vs. Louie Sutherland +105 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Aussie Justin Tafa is a large, powerful heavyweight who is equipped to compete in any stand-up battle but finds himself unable to deal with the diversity of a founded mixed martial artist’s weaponry especially if it includes wrestling/grappling.

Tafa’s last two fights were losses against nominally talented opponents and in this one he receives the advantage of taking on a debuting adversary.

In Sutherland we have an English bloke who can strike, kick and choke. Sutherland will be the taller, longer, larger heavyweight in the cage and his aggressive nature and ability to grapple will provide the Englishman with tremendous opportunity here.

Yes, Sutherland is being sent into Australia to be the fall guy for the local here, but it is my position that this fight not only exceeds the total but will end with Sutherland +105 getting his hand raised.

Total in this fight 1.5 Rds. Over -150

The ‘Bout Business Podcast is off a 5+ unit profit last card and like fighters we too carry great momentum into this fight slate. Catch all my final releases for this fight card Friday midday at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Musings and Abusing

 

It appears the fire in Miami is burning hottest inside that locker room. This team just lost to a team that had only earned victory in Miami twice in the last decade. Miami’s burnin’.

The Bills’ early schedule is a cakewalk. They’ll likely be 5-0 after the first handful of games. It’s then that we will see regression from a team poised to win it all but not poised to win twelve ballgames.

How ’bout them Cowboys, Bears, and Jets-Jets-Jets? Futility from ownership down through the entire organization over a generation shows in each of these teams, as their play on the field is dismal.

Danny Dimes may have found a situation where he has running backs and wide receivers, yes, but more importantly, he has an offensive line. Without horses, you’re cooked in the NFL.

Zac Taylor is a dead man walking.The Falcons were a team we invested in this year with Over positions. It looks like we invested well after a meager two weeks of football.

I have mentioned several times how one must simply step back and let Jim Harbaugh take over. He is, and so are his Bolts!

Chargers +800 to win the AFC?

I just released it this morning!

We’re two weeks into the 2025 season, and teams are just finding themselves.

Take your time, be patient, and conduct your own work—unless you simply wish to trust me and my due diligence, then fire away and enjoy.

We have four-plus months of this remaining!

GambLou.com

It’s Business! 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Paris Imavov vs. Borralho: French Inhaler

The UFC is overseas for this week’s fight card as Paris, France will be the location for UFC FN Paris. This fight card begins at 9am PT with preliminary action followed by the main card which starts at Noon PT.

There are thirteen schedule bouts on this fight program. Seven of those matchups feature larger men weighing 170lbs. or more which usually means a greater opportunity for violence and finishes.

Five athletes from France populate the card as well there are another handful of fighters featured on this slate from European countries in close proximity to France, look for those athletes to be the beneficiaries of the local crowd.

Vilified on this fight card will be seven athletes strategically located (on the fight card) who travel in from the US/Brazil who face the local/regional talent. They’ll compete in the large 30-foot octagon with a full house of French fight fanatics looking to fuel hostilities!

Favorites this year in the UFC are running 65.7% which is eye wateringly high. Underdogs like Charles Johnson +180 last fight card are rare as eight/nine of twelve fights are ending with the chalk getting their hand raised thus far in 2025.

Reversion? I believe so, but we will need to undertake betting underdog fighters with diligence, scrutiny, and selectivity moving forward!

Let’s Fight!

Nassourdine Imavov +105 vs. Ciao Borralho -125 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Imavov, a Russian athlete training in Paris is currently ranked second in this ultra-competitive division.

After a one-sided loss to Sean Strickland in January of 2023, Imavov changed camps which resulted in him rebounding to win his last four fights against respected, ranked opponents. He bested former champion Israel Adesanya in impressive fashion in his latest victory.

Imavov is a solid grappler/wrestler by numbers as well, by attitude. He does his best work pressuring opponents then initiating grappling forays. His striking effectiveness is accumulative in effect though not flashy, and precision based.

While the hulking Imavov is not overly one punch powerful, he will utilize a combination of all his fight weaponry to overtake opponents in the cage though time and perseverance.

Imavov’s strengths are his well-balanced fight arsenal, his durability/toughness and in this battle he’ll have the crowd in his corner jeering at his Brazilian nerd opponent.

The Imavov blueprint in fights is to wrest opponents to the mat for a roll and while his grappling is complete, it can and has been depleting to his cardio which in this fight is foundational.

Imavov’s high early output has affected his energy late in fights which is something he will absolutely need to address in this scheduled five round war against the seventh ranked athlete in the division.

Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho enters this showdown with confidence surging. His team, the ‘Fighting Nerds’ have taken the UFC by storm and Borralho, its leader arrives with a black belt Black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking as well a brown belt in Judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite. Borralho’s combination of fight weaponry, mental toughness and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.

Once this fight begins it will be Imavov, in my judgment, who will attempt to fend off the pressure of Borralho with his footwork and striking in essence maintaining distance between the two in order to try to use his height and reach advantages to their full potential.

Imavov, while gifted on the ground would be foolish in my estimation to try to force the fight there simply because I handicap Borralho to hold substantial advantage in the clinch, against the fence and particularly on the floor.

On the feet it’s my judgment that Borralho forces this fight and attacks Imavov immediately in order to test the Russian’s will, his cardio but most especially his willingness to eat a ‘Sunday shot’ for Borralho has accused Imavov of not wanting to get touched on the teeth.

Both men hold similar positive strike differentials and on paper the grappling does look to be close in ability despite the fact that in application, Borralho will hold GREAT advantage on the ground.

This fight may well be a showcase for Borralho for his outward aggression, his forceful forward pressure, and the power of his strikes together with the completeness of his grappling will make this a truly intriguing matchup but one where I must lean to Borralho who opened +135 in this matchup.

Borralho -125

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -195

Mauricio Ruffy -185 vs. Benoit Saint-Denis +160 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Thirteenth ranked BSD hit the organization with fury! Prior to fighting he was a member of the 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment; a unit of the French Army Special Forces Command which means he is a national hero in France.

BSD hit the UFC with vigor, after a short notice loss in 2021 he rattled off five straight wins in the organization before biting off a little more than he could chew in fights against Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano.

His last effort showed the BSD resilience as he returned for UFC 315 and finished journeyman fighter Kyle Prepolec in the second round.

BSD, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a black belt in Judo has flash, power, and durability. Quickness, deft footwork, and precision striking are traits he is yet developing. This fight, in France and against a formidable Brazilian opponent who is also on the ascent may present fight fans with as interesting a matchup as we have seen in the UFC in months!

In Maricio Ruffy we get yet another teammate of the ‘Fighting nerds.’

Ruffy has none of the official BJJ, Muay Thai or Judo decorations of others on this fight card but what he does have is supreme confidence, deft footwork, acute quickness, speed, precision striking/kicking aptitude and he is ultra-aggressive.

Ruffy looks to shut opponents down as opposed to earn victory via the attrition of decision fighting.

These two men are quite similar physically, but Ruffy does possess a couple inch reach advantage with arms and legs which will help the Brazilian fight effectively from the distance he works so diligently to establish.

For BSD, he’ll need to navigate himself inside the spatial gap that Ruffy will work to create. BSD will be like a ‘fence ready for painting’ if he is unable to effectively penetrate the distance maintenance that Ruffy will work so hard to establish and control.

From the inside BSD will be able to both work his grappling while simultaneously negating the distance Ruffy needs to unleash those spinning wheel kicks and knees, elbows, and jabs.

Saint-Denis, still developing in his UFC acumen, has shown himself to be a formidable opponent for fighters outside the top ten of this division, however results inside the top ten display that his skills and experience leave him a bit lacking as BSD is still a developing mixed martial artist.

Ruffy is an established, ascending fighter who looks well matched in this battle while BSD will need to call upon all of his mettle, experience, and former military fortitude in order to effectively compete against this flamboyant lightning fast, destructive monster of a lightweight talent.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Mason Jones -135 vs. Bolaji Oli +115 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Oki is a slick, fast, striker who has earned a 2-1 tally thus far in the UFC. Though a touch inexperienced, Oki displays the athleticism and striking acumen that can cause less nimble athletes’ real duress.

In Mason Jones we get a Welch fighter who is in his second stint in the UFC after taking a little time away to develop his fight arsenal more completely and by that I mean he needed to develop a stronger wrestling base.

Mason may not be the athlete his opponent is, but he is more experienced at this level than his opponent as well he has been in the throes of competition against more formidable adversaries than has Oki.

The styles make fights matchup of the day is this battle. Will Oki be able to maintain distance and avoid the detonation striking of Jones? Or will Jones’ forward pressing aggression and striking bluntness eventually wear Oki down and into unconsciousness?

Jones -135

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -155

Remember fight fans this card kicks off at 9am PST Saturday. My final releases for this card will be posted on GambLou.com Friday AM, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access the information.

Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

“If you want to be wrong, follow the masses” Socrates

Every year, months prior to the NFL regular season, I preach to anyone who will listen on the aspect of applying discipline into one’s sports betting.

Sportsbooks and shows that are the voice for the Books (Sportsgrid, VSiN and the like) are harping at listeners from the Super bowl to the Hall of Fame game about early ‘value’ bets in the NFL because there is nothing to speak of that holds anyone’s interest in the dog days of summer.

Forget that those dishing the releases are bumblers that are unaware of how square they are or they are simply journalists who must fill dead time who are aware that talking anything but NFL will have listeners turning off their program!

Beside tying up one’s money for months, there is little to NO benefit in firing early.

Take for example all the pukes that were all over the Rams over season wins and played them for the division, conference and/or SB this year?

Now Stafford is injured and no one knows how badly this will affect him, his team and the few imbeciles that thought firing on an ‘over’ months before the season was smart.

Players please use your head and some common sense!

Simply understand that what Socrates stated so many years ago is correct:

“If you want to be wrong, follow the masses.”

So forget jumping early NFL bets now, be patient, be businesslike and if you must throw a wager out there early, please make certain it is an Under or for a team to NOT win a division because until the pre season is completed (it is now completed) it is folly to try to get in front of Overs and positive happenings for a team.

With Under wagering or with wagering on a team to NOT accomplish something those injuries, trades and retirements can only contribute to your bottom line, not destroy it!

Word to you Momma!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 319 Du Plessis vs. Chimaev: Collar tie on Clark

This week’s event is called UFC 319, and it will be one of five final PPV events for the UFC as in 2026 the platform for UFC events will be Paramount and CBS in essence killing the antiquated PPV model for a much more lucrative opportunity. There is much to comment upon here but that will be saved for another time.

Saturday UFC fight fans will witness a terrifically matched main event of Middleweight stalwarts where champion Dricus Du Plessis a South African faces number three ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler who many regard as the most dangerous athlete on the roster.

The fight card kicks off with early preliminary action at 3pm PT, regular prelims start at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the card drops at 7pm PT.

There are currently thirteen scheduled bouts for this fight slate. Five of those bouts are comprised of men weighing 170lbs. or more so focus on those fights for the higher probability of finishing potential.

There are five fights where the youth advantage is at least six years or greater and two fights between athletes who compete against one another and are at least thirty-seven years old. The geriatric bouts!

Last week my suggested parlay position lost bringing results for this column to 16-18 -.47u for the year.

Let’s get back into the black this week!

Khamzat Chimaev -230 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +195 Champion Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Chimaev is a Russian demolition man decorated with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess. He fights/trains between Sweden and the UAE. Chimaev hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential thus far in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues, inactivity and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division outside of his last victory, a walloping of Robert Whittaker who had been a perennial top five athlete in the division for a decade as well a former champion of the division.

Chimaev’s other two middleweight wins were against Kevin Holland a fighter made for Chimaev, then former middleweight champion Kamaru Usman a welterweight himself who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close majority decision despite taking the bout on very short notice and travelling around the globe to vie against the young Russian. Tlast October’s defeat of former champion Whittaker.

Chimaev, in previous fights, has shown himself to be complete monster in the first two rounds before he begins to wear signs of fatigue. I’m certain he’s addressed the matter but suffice it to say that this champion is a legit hulking middleweight and he will not tire.  Those glimpses of fatigue from Chimaev against undersized foes like Gil Burns and Usman is a contributing factor to how I handicap this battle..

Chimaev faces elite middleweight competition in this fight and a man with drive perseverance and pride. Without question Champion Dricus Du Plessis is a much more dangerous opponent to Chimaev than anyone Chimaev has competed against in battle and in practice.

South African Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, he has an unconventional, awkward, uneven approach to his fighting. He is a massive sized man, he is dynamically strong, has great cardio and is as tough and durable as any fighter on the roster.

What Du Plessis is not is nimble footed, slick, fast, or precise with his striking which favors him in this fight for he’ll not need to call upon any of those skills to best Chimaev as Du Plessis will attack the bully and try to steal his will with aggressive blunt force forward pressure.

Du Plessis lives by the adage that ‘every action has an equal and opposite reaction’ so the Du Plessis plan in any fight but most especially in this one, will be to take the fight directly to Chimaev and execute a pulverization of said adversary until he succumbs.

This is a fight that one must watch from the beginning for Chimaev will look to dominate Du Plessis early with his forceful, smothering, grappling acumen and try to overwhelm him, in essence he’ll attempt to drown the champion with the force of his grappling/wrestling pressure.

For Du Plessis, he has little intention of evading and buying time to take Chimaev deep into this fight rather he wants to overwhelm Chimaev in his own strategy, by attacking him from the opening bell.

Yes, I believe Du Plessis will look to bully the bully for this approach has shown promise in the past against the lesser experienced Chimaev especially after the first five/ten minutes of fighting when fatigue begins to creep in and is able “to make cowards of us all.”

Chimaev has had but one fight since October of 2023 and while he has likely improved his weaponry specifically his cardio capability in the months leading up to this fight, his lack of live octagon work in the last eighteen months must be mentioned.

Meanwhile Du Plessis has faced and earned victory in nine straight UFC bouts, four of them title defenses and against the elite of the MIDDLEWEIGHT division. In the time that Chimaev has had one bout, DDP’s competed in three different title defense fights.

Du Plessis’ fortitude, his size, strength, and experience will all be required in this fight against what many inside the UFC and outside of it regard as a legitimate ‘boogie man.’

I sense that the uber aggression and forward pressure of Du Plessis, provided he is able to navigate this fight into the third round, will eventually drain the energy and will from the front running bully from Beno-Yurt, Chechnya, Russia.

In order to retain his title, Du Plessis must execute the best first ten minutes of fighting since his career started because anything less than that form of effort will find him in the clasp of one of the deadliest submission specialists in the UFC.

Du Plessis +195

This line is slowly rising so use patience and catch the best price possible on DDP.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -125

Carlos Prates -245 vs. Goeff Neal +205 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Texan Neal is an accomplished striker who has power in all appendages. Neal, also a purple belt in BJJ, is currently ranked eleventh in a division full of absolute killers.

Neal arrives hot off a win over Rafael Dos Anjos after having dropped a couple of bouts to legitimate, elite top ten talent in the division in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

In twelfth ranked Carlos Prates we have a chain-smoking Brazilian gangster who is a black belt in BJJ and an ultra-aggressive striker with power.

Several factors force me to regard Prates as most dangerous in this spot. He sports height, reach, and age advantages over Neal, he’s the faster more dynamic athlete despite the fact that he has a heater hanging out of his mouth at all times save for the time he spends fighting in the cage.

Once the bell rings for this fight, we will see too aggressive strikers, both of whom have been defeated by Garry, approach each other with the sole purpose of knocking the other unconscious.

Neal will be the slightly more compact power striker where Prates will be the longer, lengthier, more diversely equipped striker who will employ a forceful leg attack to numb the sound, determined Neal, and take away his movement.

This fight has every indication of being an all-out stand-up battle that fight fans should not miss. At the end of the foray I believe it will be Prates who is able to walk away the victor more than likely via finish.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -165

Edson Barboza -155 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

Brazilian Barboza at thirty-nine moves back up to his original UFC division Lightweight, for this battle of relevance in the UFC.

Klose, his opponent from Phoenix, AZ. is the legitimate lightweight, but he is now thirty-seven himself and enters this key fight off a loss to Joel Alvarez after having won four straight fights in a row.

Both of these men are lethal strikers Klose with heavy hands and more of a direct approach to battle and Barboza with the more diverse striking attack featuring leg numbing kicking acumen.

This fight has finish written all over it but it’s my judgement that it takes one man more than seven minutes thirty seconds to finish the other.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -200

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops at GambLou.com.  There all my final releases for UFC 319 may be accessed.

Thank you for Reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV109 Hernandez vs. Dolidze: The Butcher, the Baker…

 

Last week UFC LV 108 held at the organization’s APEX facility saw chalk roll to a 9-2 result pushing favorites in the UFC in 2025 to 64.7%. That percentage is a couple of basis points plus higher than normal yearly averages. I mention this after the most stringent favorite result in years occurred in 2024 when favorites ran above 70%!

As far as this week’s card is concerned, we return to the APEX where fights are still held in the small twenty-five-foot cage. That mentioned, athletes are now able to compete in the newly designed and remodeled facility where the crowds are now slightly larger than the oh so few that were able to view the fights prior to the remodel.

This card is schedule for eleven fights, it has only four battles at Welterweight (170lbs.) or above as well there are eight fights where the age difference is six years or greater with the most obtuse difference being a SEVENTEEN year between Angela Hill and Iasmine Lucindo. We also have a fighter changing weight classes and in this case the athlete is moving UP in weight as opposed to down.

I have talked about the importance of age, and how critical youth is  in UFC outcomes especially when said youth is complimented with size and length.

Advantage in UFC bouts can manifest itself in every way, shape, and form and in this column weekly we try to expose readers to the nuances of those nuances and advantages.

This LV 109 fight card starts at 1pm PST with the prelims then the main card drops at 4pm PST.

Last week Neil Magny +185 displayed how much strength of schedule (opponents faced in previous bouts) can be a great indicator of fighters who may hold advantage once they are allowed to compete with other than an elite world class mixed martial artist.

Magny finished a tough and durable Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos in the second round.

That win pushed digital results to 16-17 + .53u for the year. The goal now to stack wins together in order to finish this 2025 campaign with enhanced bottom line.

This is the eighth year that this column has been fortunate enough to be featured on the VSiN digital magazine, the column has realized bottom line profitability in each year since VSiN began and I plan on this year being no different, so bite down on those mouthpieces fight fans and let’s invest into LV 109!

Anthony Hernandez -320 vs. Roman Dolidze +270 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Dolidze is a Georgian fighter who is able to pivot between both light heavyweight and middleweight divisions of the UFC. He is large and capable enough to compete against many 205-pound fighters and still able to make the 185-pound middleweight limit and compete effectively against the middleweights.

Dolidze, a baker by profession, is a very capable grappler, his size/strength make him a force at the middleweight level and his striking is power based. Cardio? Well Dolidze can struggle with his gas tank late in fights, especially at the middleweight level where cutting all that weight can manifest itself in negative fashion.

In this fight Dolidze will attempt to bully Hernandez, back him up and force himself and his will on the slighter fleeter footed athlete. Ideally Dolidze is able to corner Hernandez then unleash a barrage of power body shots, elbows, and knees to the body. This is his path to the upset.

Dolidze will/should choose to work the body in order to take away his opponent’s ability to move. Should he be successful this fight transitions to his favor for he is heavy handed, aggressive and can finish any fighter in the division.

In Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez, Dolidze has drawn one capable cardio machine.

Hernandez will be giving away size, height and reach to Dolidze so a standing battle surely favors the opponent. However, Hernandez has deft footwork, solid striking acumen, and world class grappling and an unending ability to compete at a frenetic pace for seven rounds let alone the scheduled five rounds for this main event.

His unending cardio ability is unmatched in the division and perhaps in all of the top weight classes in the UFC.

Hernandez dominates Dolidze statistically for he overshadows him in significant strike differential, take down ability and take down defense, so the Hernandez blueprint for success involves weathering a ferocious early ten minute storm from the aggressive Dolidze then dominating the hulking Georgian as the fight transpires past the first ten minutes and into the ‘Fluffy’ zone.

Hernandez must apply constant movement to create striking angles while simultaneously using said movement to evade the incoming bull rushes from his opponent. Hernandez footwork, cardio and diversity of weaponry prepare him well for this test against a tough, durable fighter who does not possess the athleticism of cardio ability of Hernandez.

At the end of the day Hernandez’ diversity of attack, youth and cardio will be the foundation by which Hernandez wins this bout. I believe a late round finish either ground and pound or submission is in the cards for this fight.

Total in this fight is 3.5Rds. Under -115

Christian Rodriguez -230 vs. Andre Fili Featherweight +195 (145lbs.)

Andre ‘Toucy’ Fili is a decorated veteran of the UFC who has been in the organization for some twelve years with a compiled UFC record of 12-11-1.

Fili is long, tall, and quite experienced but his experience, while an advantage in most fights, has taken Fili years to acquire and at the ripe fighting age of thirty-five, Fili now finds himself groping to remain relevant and active in the UFC.

Fili will be the taller athlete in this matchup as well, the longer, fighter which he is used to. However, Fili’s height once a great advantage to him when younger actually costs him now as his quickness, speed and strike evasion has regressed and ‘tall men’ often get caught with strikes because their chin is left open in frantic exchanges.

In Chistian Rodriguez we get an ascending fighter with speed, quickness, acute grappling acumen and striking prowess. While ‘CeeRod’ is not gifted with profuse power, he is highly athletic and quick, he has great feet which allow him to maneuver freely into attack mode and quickly evade incoming shots.

Rodriguez’ last bout was a close decision loss to Melquizael Costa in which there is no shame. Fili also dropped his last bout to Costa, but he was submitted in the first round.

While each fight is its own entity, the dramatic difference in result against Costa on top of Rodriguez being seven years the younger fresher fighter force me to regard Rodriguez as being in a very desirable spot this Saturday against a name fighter in Fili whose pelt will look quite handsome hanging from the Rodriguez mantle.

This week’s investment: A parlay

Rodriguez -230 parlay to Hernandez -320

1.15u to earn 1.02u

Total in this bout stands 2.5Rds Over -220

Rodriguez is NOT overly powerful, but Fili has shown himself to be susceptible to the KO so tread carefully with this total.

Friday midday PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch my final releases for this fight card at GambLou.com, tap the ‘Bout Business tab to access.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Investment Intel, Profitability

Advantage investing or Action man?

Today’s theme revolves around the discipline to pull the trigger on a bet when the advantage is yours…. DO NOT acquiesce and let the ‘Makers or the talking heads being paid by them talk you into making NFL wagers in June when camps have not even begun yet.

It’s May and we’re entering the dog days of summer investors.

Sportsbooks have posted NFL win totals and week one numbers to entice those who are not disciplined and are itching for action to wager now on any aspect of the NFL.

My word of caution is this.

Betting NFL win totals now is suicide….especially if one invests in over wagers then you simply hate your money.

Is it possible to plinco your way into advantage now?

Sure, but you tie up your money, then run the risk that injury, trade or some other unforeseen act may disrupt the team you have wagered on.  

Betting now means you are hoping… not handicapping.

Due Diligence, Selectivity, Money Management…. The fulcrum of bottom line profit in sports wagering!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!