The APEX in Las Vegas, NV hosts this week’s UFC LV105, an event that is the tenth of eleven fight productions in eleven weeks. The card features thirteen scheduled bouts populated with athletes from across the globe.

The APEX employs a smaller 25’ Octagon in a state-of-the-art facility for fights/fight productions but unfortunately allows for little attendance.

Favorites returned to dominance last week running 10-2 yet the rate of favorites on the year is 57.8%, well below the typical 62/63 percent average.

Last week Miguel Torres KO’d Drew Dober in the first round of their co main event battle pushing digital results this year to 7-8 -.95u.

Lerone Murphy -340 vs. Josh Emmett +280 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Emmett is the division’s eight ranked fighter, yet he is a substantial underdog to Lerone Murphy from England who is ranked tenth.

The Englishman travels to the States to face a fighter in Emmett that is extremely aggressive, packs profuse power and has competed against the elite in the division.

Emmett’s last fight versus Bryce Mitchell was spectacular. Emmett brutally KO’d Mitchell in round one of their fight in December of 2023. Utilize that fight as evidence of Emmett’s death touch.

Emmett though, is now forty and coming off a sixteen-month layoff after that Mitchell bout which in my judgement may be affecting how the market is viewing this fight. In my estimation, thatmuch time can help an older competitor or it may leave them looking old as with Jan Blachowicz a few weeks ago.

In Lerone Murphy we get a fighter who uses keen athleticism, deft footwork and precision striking to compliment his purple belt in BJJ. Muphy, who sports a positive 1.13 significant strike differential per round prefers to stand and pick opponents apart with volume striking laced with evasive defensive ability.

Once this fight begins, we’ll see two strikers compete against the other striker’s style. Will Emmett be able to earn the inside in order to unleash his devastating hooks, crosses, knees, and elbows onto his British adversary or will Murphy’s deft movement and ability to maintain space allow him to pepper Emmett as he forges his way forward to engage?

This will be fascinating in the clash of styles but in the end and despite Emmett’s age I believe his forward force, his profuse power and twenty-five minutes of fight time put him in a better position to upset than the current odds suggest.

Emmett +280 .5u

Patience as this number keeps rising

Total in this fight 4.5 Rds. Over -190

Joanderson Brito -210 vs. Pat Sabatini +185 Featherweight co main event

Two capable fighters sitting just outside the top fifteen compete in the co main event.

Sabatini, a black belt in BJJ as well in Tang Soo Do (a Korean adaptation of Karate) uses unrelenting forward pressure to back opponents against the fence then onto the floor where from top position Sabatini is quite dangerous.

Brazilian Brito enters this fight off of one terrible hometown decision loss to William Gomis last fall in Paris.

Brito is strong, athletic, powerful and a BJJ savant, he’ll be direct in his approach to trying to knock Sabatini’s head off, but he’ll need to protect himself against the takedown for kryptonite to world class BJJ is world class wrestling which is Sabatini forte.

The fortunate thing for Brito is that he’s deft at cutting the cage to close in on opponents so the smaller cage will allow him to close distance to engage in his power striking which is the heart and soul of the Brito physiology.

Once the bell rings for this bout it’s my position that Sabatini will have a difficult time closing the distance on Brito without eating some four once leather sandwiches….and too many flush Brito strikes will stop any featherweight.

Brito’s speed, footwork, aggression and finishing ability taken with the fact that he enters this fight off a terrible decision forces me to regard him as ready to perform at his utmost best.

Sabatini, who has a difficult ability to evade strikes and especially withstand flush shots to the face seems somewhat overmatched in this fight.

The Brito opening number was -400 and is now -205. I believe the opener is more depictive of how this fight will go down.

Brito -210

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -195

Torrez Finney -240 vs. Robert Valentin +200 Middleweight (185lbs)

This is the “Styles make Fights” Angleo Dundee tribute fight!

In one corner we’ll have a sawed off, short, squat, hand grenade of a wrestling talent in Torrez Finney who opened -300 in this fight.

In Robert Valentin Finney faces a long, tall, Swiss power striker/submission specialist that will be six inches taller and four years younger than he. Valentin opened a +250 dog in this fight despite the fact that he’s a pedigreed finisher.

The Torrez physique makes him look more like a framer than a fighter but make little mistake this guy is explosive, forceful, and equipped with a wrestlers cardio. His striking ability, however, is base, as is his strike defense but he overcomes that lack of fight diversity with incredible will and unrelenting wrestling pressure.

Finney’s approach will be to take the striker down then from top position reign damage until the referee stops the fight.

His opponent Valentin is chiseled, angular and will loom over the shorter, more compact Finney. Valentin must manage distance to leverage his strikes on Finney but by all means and by every cost he must keep this fight standing because if he drops to the floor with Finney he’ll be flogged.

Valentin’s strategy here will be to stick and move and try to time one of his devastating straight knees or uppercuts onto the incoming wrestler when he rushes in for the takedown.

Can the striker Valentin keep this fight standing or will Finney find a way to swarm the Swiss fighter, clasp onto him then drag him to the canvas for a smearing?

Total in this fight is 2.5Rds Over -195

Friday mid-day PST the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Access it at GambLou.com

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights

GambLou

It’s Business!

Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.

The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.

The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.

Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.

This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.

Underdog correction?

I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.

Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.

Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.

Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.

In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.

His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.

In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.

Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.

Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.

There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.

Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.

So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.

I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205

Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)

Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.

Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.

Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.

He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.

Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s.  Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.

If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.

If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.

Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380

Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.

Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.

A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.

Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.

Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.

Trocoli +155 .5u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. Access it at WWW.GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Originally posted 11-12 24 VSiN Digital

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