Puck Profitability posted

Here are GambLou Puck Passion results to date with all future wagers listed:

To date:  37-30  +7.42u 19% ROI

Open Futures:

Carolina to win East  5.2u to earn 2.0u

Carolina Cup +155  2.0u to earn 3.10u

Golden Knights Cup +210  2u to earn 4.20u

The above numbers include the recent Wedgewood and McKinnon Conn Smythe losses.

Conn Smythe releases that remain active:

Stankoven 19/1    .20u

Hart 75/1              .10u

Freddy 19/1           .20u

Marner 12/1           .25u

Dobes 18/1              .20u

next puck drop is Friday 5pm PST

GambLou.com

It’s Business

 

 

UFC Macao Yadong vs. Figueiredo: Getting Figgy wid it

UFC Fight Night Macao takes place this week in the wee hours PST from the eastern hemisphere. Preliminary action begins 1AM PST with the main card dropping at 4am PST.

This fight slate is scheduled for fifteen bouts two of which (Road to the UFC bouts) take place in the days prior to Saturday. For handicapping purposes, this column focuses only on the athletes already competing in the UFC so we will offer no opinion on the RTUFC bouts.

Of the thirteen bouts on this card all feature a fighter from the general vicinity competing against a fighter from outside the hemisphere. Travel can and does affect weight cuts and athlete performances.

Also of note is that there is only one fight with the favorite lined under -205 which signifies a card erected not only for finishes but also one designed to allow the regional fighters to shine in front of their brethren.

Throughout this card are premium examples of regional fighters being awarded favorable matchups which ‘should’ allow them to shine. This is a deliberate effort by the UFC, handpicking opponents to allow the regional athletes to shine and therefore fuel the UFC fire in that particular corner of the world.

Five fights are going to be held at the larger weight classes of 170lbs. and above as well there are several fights featuring athletes with a five year or greater youth advantage. A six year youth advantage provides the younger fighter a 62+% win advantage and that win rate grows as the age gap widens!

Song Yadong -600 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo +500 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Brazilian Figueiredo is a former flyweight champion who at thirty-eight years old is no longer able to make the weight for flyweight and must now compete against naturally larger, stronger, and younger modern stalwarts competing at 135lbs.

1-3 in his last four bouts, Figueiredo has competed against the elite of the division but his approach in those fights has been one of ‘survival’ as opposed to a mad Brazilian fighter looking to take out any opponent set before him.

Figueiredo’s lack of size/strength is a factor against these younger, larger, faster men as well his skills have waned substantially.

Figueiredo enters this fight with a negative .74 significant strike ratio per minute, and his takedown offense as well his takedown defense has eroded.

Figueiredo is a name, he’s been relevant in the UFC, but he is only useful now as a steppingstone for viable top UFC bantamweights.

In Yadong we have a Chinese fighter who has trained for years in America with Uriah Faber at Team Alpha Male. Yadong’s wrestling has evolved greatly in his last several years at Alpha Male which supplements his already forceful boxing and Muay Thail prowess.

Yadong will be the physically larger man in the cage, he’s a decade the younger fighter as well he will be the more adroit, athletic man in the cage.

Yadong’s 3-2 in his last five fights losing only to ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley and Petr Yan, both top three fighters in the division.

When this fight begins Yadong will forcefully attempt to engage Figueredo with striking. His single point of focus will be to ungluing the Brazilian and force a stoppage for his Countrymen.

Figueiredo has had injuries affect his performances in two of his last three bouts which is the age and amount of combat attrition he has accrued over the years speaking.

Should Figueiredo attempt to actually engage Yadong and make this a fight then it is my judgement that this fight ends in a Yadong TKO however, should Figgy decide to try and ‘survive’ and make it to the final bell then this fight turns into a snoozer which no one, the UFC, the fans, nor the Yadong camp wish to experience.

If Figgy comes to fight, it will be a finish for Yadong.

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -125

Alex Perez -135 vs. Su Mudaerji +110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Let’s break down the only competitively priced bout of the slate!

Su is an unranked Chinese athlete now training in California, so he did have to travel to get to Macao. That mentioned, he should have the accommodations to be able to spend plenty of time in Macao to naturalize to the time, climate etc.

Su is primarily a striker. His early influences in fighting came from childhood where he specialized in San Da which is a Chinese kickboxing derivative.

Su’s striking is his specialty and while his long, lean, body frame is a perfect temple for his striking style the fact is that Su’s primarily a singularly dimensioned fighter as well an accumulation striker for his power is basically a non-factor.

Su’s wrestling/grappling prowess is inadequate at best. Those wishing to Smother Su in the cage immediately apply wrestling/grappling pressure to take the striker from a relative comfort zone (standing in space) to one of complete incapacity (clinched up then on the canvas).

 

In Alex Perez we have the eleventh ranked flyweight on the roster. Perez’s holds solid wrestling acumen, and his grappling is also developed.  Perez can fight on the feet as well as he has seven fights won via KO/TKO. Perez is a complete mixed martial artist who at thirty-four will be four years older than Su in this battle.

While Su will sport height, youth and reach advantages, it is Perez who has been in the octagon with a more skilled set of adversary as well the completeness of his fighting game allows him to be able to defeat fighters outside of the rankings especially one’s that arrive without a well-rounded fight arsenal.

It is when he competes against the top eight of the division where Perez struggles as he has lost to only the ranked of the flyweight division.

Perez experience, his level of competition faced, and his complete fight acumen differentiate these two who were priced at pick-em when this fight opened.

Now the price on Perez has risen slightly to -140.

Perez -140 (circa)

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms as well on the GambLou.com front page. Catch all my final releases there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

McGregor returns? Not so fast my friends!

So Max Holloway is going to be rewarded for his company loyalty by being privy to the payday associated with fighting Conor McGregor.

While on the surface this is exciting news to many, the reality is that there are serious unknowns leading into this proposed fight and most of the risk and penalty will be borne by Holloway, then the UFC and finally the fans.

Let me explain.

McGregor has not fought competitively since 2021 and then he was a 155 pound lightweight.

Since that last competition McGregor has pleased us with the following public spectacles:

In 2018 at UFC 223 he attacked a bus full of fighters, then followed that up with assault/rape charges in 2019, 2021 and 2023. Later in 2023 another famed incident with the Miami Heat mascot gained the manically McGregor more dubious fame and notoriety.

McGregor’s erratic behavior, his slathering appearances when in public as well some unsolicited nude photo charges in 2025 paint the picture of a man who was born with nothing but talent, who then skyrockets into fame and riches on said talent then self-destructs on the excess that his natural physical gifts brought him.

Now the UFC needs a spark, and they turn to the magic money elixir that is McGregor.

The question I pose is this: who knows how serious McGregor takes this fight?

It’s scheduled for 170lbs. but who is to say that upon the last days of the fight that McGregor’s lifestyle and moxie don’t allow him to roll into this fight at 178 or 180lbs thus forcing Max, the ever professional company man already stretching to take this fight at 170 into even further disadvantage by trying to compete above the 170 pounds where he has never really competed before.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the UFC is selling it’s soul to please stakeholders and they’ll pull anything to get a leg up…..even taking advantage of a naïve fan base to sell them a ‘name’ as opposed to a legitimate athlete that can compete effectively in the cage.

For Max Holloway I only hope McGregor honors what he says and commits to, but I have seen this movie before, and I will believe this fight takes place at 170lbs as scheduled only upon seeing it.

Betting this fight under the assumption that it takes place at 170lbs. is a foolish endeavor people.

I advise waiting and watching the leadup to this bout because the dynamic that happens in the prefight weeks will more than likely overshadow what happens on fight night when an overserved and underprepared McGregor steps into the cage.

I absolutely do not believe this fight takes place at 170lbs. but if it does I’ll likely be very active in my approach to betting this bout.

 

UFC 328 Strickland vs. Chimaev: Chechen choke?

This week Newark, NJ hosts UFC 328, a thirteen fight event utilizing the large octagon in front of some of New Jersey’s finest fight fanatics.

Seven of the thirteen bouts will be waged between men weighing 170lbs. and larger. Those large men provide the highest finish rates to be found in the organization.

Name recognition and dynamic stylistic matchups await viewers. The production’s early prelims begin at 2pm PST, preliminary actions starts at 4pm PST then finally the main card which drops at 5pm PST.

Six US fighters hold the advantage of facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete, as well there are three bouts where the youth advantage is greater than 6 years presenting those athletes with a 65% win rate.

Digital results (8-9-1 -2.0u) took a unit hit last week as my release of Jack Della Maddalena was a disaster. That was as large a miss as I can recall making.

Time to bounce back.

Khamzat Chimaev -600 vs. Sean Strickland +470 Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Middleweight champion Chimaev is a three-time Swedish national champion in freestyle wrestling. He is also decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Chimaev has competed in and dominated two division’s in the UFC and threatens to make it three.

This Russian gangster is incredibly strong, his unrelenting, forceful forward aggression is admired by other decorated world class wrestlers/grapplers, and his striking is slowly beginning to evolve though he does not need to employ that aspect of MMA into his repertoire simply because no one can stop his dominant pressure wrestling.  

Inactivity and cardio are the only critiques one may thrust upon Chimaev as he has struggled in the past with visas and access into the USA which covers his inactivity.

Past fights with welterweights (170lbs.) Gil Burns and Kamaru Usman lead me to believe that Chimaev’s gas tank could be suspect as Burns and Usman both are welterweight athletes that forced Chimaev into decision fights.  

Number three ranked and former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is Chimaev’s foe this weekend and it should be added that these two have trained together prior just to add some depth and a sprinkle of hatred to this matchup.

Strickland is the only fighter on the UFC roster that can match the maniacal behavior/process of Chimaev both inside and outside of the cage. Strickland’s the well more versed mixed martial artist between these two as his striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio are all developed and complete.

Strickland, who is a full grown middleweight fighter, will strive to keep the blitzing Chimaev at bay with movement, take down defense and his own brand of fists, elbows, and occasional kicks.

Strickland’s focus will be to compete with Chimaev for the first two rounds of this fight with the goal of forcing Chimaev to expend his cardio/energy. If Strickland can weather the first ten minutes of this battle then he may get to turn the tables on Chimaev, a fighter who is known to slow as fights progress.

At the bell for round three, Chimaev will have to deal for another three rounds with a threat in Strickland who can actually get stronger as this fight progresses.  

Chimaev opened -400 for this fight and it’s my judgement that this fight will be well more competitive than any we have seen Chimaev undertake simply because of Stricklands fortitude, his natural middleweight body size, and his ability to out crazy anyone in the organization including Chimaev. .

Strickland’s going to need to weather a furious first two rounds then he’ll look to turn the tables on this monster and bully this bully.

Chimaev has the reputation of being a devastator but those Usman and Burns fights tell me that Strickland has everything he needs to be able to compete with this man on par.

Many fight pundits suspect that Strickland is simply Chimaev’s next victim, and that may be the case, but I find it also quite plausible that Strickland, a guy completely unafraid of anything will be able to reproduce that effort his last fight out against Fluffy Hernandez.

With that type of performance, Strickland can not only compete with Chimaev but take this fight well into the deep championship waters. There is surely a path for Strickland winning this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120 FanDuel

Over 2.5Rds. 2.40u to earn 2.0u

Tatsuro Taira -160 vs. Joshua Van +140 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Van, twenty-four is a highly athletic volume striker who has cage intelligence, deft footwork, precision striking and an abundance of power in his strikes.

A blue belt in BJJ Van’s grappling and wrestling are mainly unpronounced as he does his talking with his hands and on his feet for Josh Van has a combination of athleticism, speed, precision, and bad intention in everything he throws upon opponents. Van is a gifted striker indeed.

In Tatsuru Taira we have a Japanese grappler extraordinaire decorated with a purple belt in BJJ. Taira’s going to be the taller, longer athlete in the cage who will also hold a five inch reach advantage.

Taira’s blueprint for success revolves around him taking Van to the canvas while Van’s focus will be to absolutely keep this fight standing.

At the end of the day Taira, twenty-six and gaining momentum with each fight will get Van to the floor and when that occurs it will mark the beginning of the end of this fight as I handicap it.

Taira opened -185 so I’ll gladly take the discount being offered on him currently.

Taira -160 1u

Bobby King Green -300 vs. Jeremy Stephens +250 (Lightweight 155lbs.)

Forty year old Jeramy Stephens arrives to Newark to participate in an epic battle that should have been waged years ago. Stephens, a purple belt in BJJ employs little BJJ in his fights for Stephens is a single mindedly focused finisher who used the bludgeoning effect of his elbow, fists, and kicks to demolish opponents.

Stephens has twenty nine career victories of which twenty-one have come via finish.

Stephens’ power and aggression remains but his footwork, strike evasion and cardio have long since left him. He’ll look to win this battle via the KO.

In King Green we have a thirty-nine year old adversary to Stephens who while on par with Stephens on age, far exceeds him when it comes to athleticism, fleet footedness, strike evasion, and precision striking.

Green does not possess the natural striking power of Stephens but as far as every other measurable aspect of mixed martial arts, Green’s fighting acumen eclipses Stephens.

This should be an exciting fight that will resemble a bull fight with King Green as matador and Stephens as the raging bull.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Lean over

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch it across all podcast platforms on at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s ‘Bout Business

‘Bout Business Podcast final releases

Due to a personal situation, I will be unable to record this week’s ‘Bout Business Podcast for UFC Perth.

The Good news however is that my final releases may be accessed by continuing to read this column. Having a webpage for backup is really nice for unfortunate situations like this.

I’ll cover Future bets next week. Balance to date is 21-37 -9.36 but we hold a multi unit open parlay to Chimaev at +100 as well a 2.39u potential return on a fight this week.

Here are the releases:

JDM 1.60u to return 2.39u he is the second leg of two different parlays where the first leg of each bet won.

Parlay: Steele -175/Malkoun -3.5pts -425; 1.05u to earn 1.0u

Parlay: Shamil Gaziev +3.5 +100/Josh Hokit -310 (upcoming white house card) 1u returns 1.65u

Parlay: Dariush/Salkilld starts 2 -125 to JDM/Prates starts round 2 -700 1.0u returns 1.06u

4.65u invested for potential 6.10u

LFG!

UFC LV 116 Sterling vs. Zalal: Funk #49!

Back to the quaint confines of the UFC Meta APEX we go for this week’s UFC LV116, an event scheduled for thirteen bouts with athletes ranging in size from115lb. Strawweight ladies to the heavyweights where the weight limit is 266lbs.

This card is populated with relatively unrecognizable talent but there are a handful of matchups on the card that will be more than compelling.

There are four larger weight class clashes taking place at 170lbs. and greater as well there are seven fights with wide ranges between the combatants ages (fighters five years or more younger than their adversary win at a 64% clip, and that rate grows higher as the age gap widens!

The international cast of athletes arrive mostly from varying locations in the states however there are five fighters that must travel (Brazil and Equator) into the US to take on domestic athletes who do not have to endure global travel and the weight complexities that go with it.

Last week’s release of Canadian Mandel Nallo went down in flames as Jai Herbert finished the Canadian in short time.

We head into this card holding a 7-8-1 -2.35u tally.

Let’s Fight

Yousuff Zalal -155 vs. Aljamain Sterling +130 Featherweight (145lbs) main event

Seventh ranked featherweight Zalal arrives to this fight riding the momentum of winning five straight UFC battles.

Zalal has dynamic athleticism, he is nimble on his feet, fast, fluid, and frenetic when he needs to be while his cage generalship and strike defense are world class as evidenced by his 67% strike defense.

Zalal is decorated with a black belt in BJJ, but opponents must not regard him as singularly equipped for Zalal’s mixed martial arts weaponry is complete, well developed and is practiced with a great deal of ill intent.

Zalal’s stepping WAY up in class for this fight for his opponent is a former champion at 135lbs. and has looked forceful in his last two bouts.

For Aljo Sterling, this fight is but another test the UFC is putting him through because fighter traits like world class wrestling, dogged determination coupled with unending cardio are not the traits the organization wants to see its fighters take.

After all this is the age of Paramount, 100K fight bonus’s and anti-wrestling/grappling sentiment.

We understand that the UFC yearns for toe-to-toe, sledgehammer competitions where someone ends up quivering on the canvas. Unfortunately, world class wrestlers like Aljo do not provide the fans with that form of entertainment.

Despite Aljo’s propensity to be overlooked, his striking has developed and as always, his unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio, and his grip lock embraces are sophisticated and subtle enough to dominate anyone on the division.

Interestingly Zalal, twenty-nine will be the larger man in the cage Saturday and that is sure to force Aljo into even more forward pressing pressure wrestling for Sterling will not stand for any length of time on the outside with Zalal without blitzing him like a linebacker in the super bowl.

Aljo is now thirty-six but a man who has faced the absolute elite of two weight classes. He will force Zalal into defending his advances every second of the fight which will force Zalal to expend energy while simultaneously not being able to find the space/time to strike.

Aljo, like many practiced mixed martial arts insiders, understand that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ, so look for Aljo to immediately engage while Zalal will strive to find room to breathe, let alone earn this space to strike.

These two have trained together prior. They know one another well, which adds dynamic to this confrontation.

This fight will be tightly contested and while I hesitate to side with an athlete seven years the elder fighter, I must recognize who Sterling is, his experience and the fact that he has competed in many main events before while Zalal is in his first.
Sterling came -200 at open and now I can invest in him plus money?

Sterling +130 

Total in this bout: 4.5 Over -185

Strong lean over, strong lean to Sterling decision also.

Alexander Hernandez -125 vs. Rafa Garcia +105 Lightweight (155lbs)

Firefight!

Garcia is one tough, durable Mexican mixed martial artist who has an iron chin, unending cardio, and a blue belt in BJJ.

Garcia’s striking is based on volume, and he does possess accumulated power in his hands. The thing with Rafa is that when he fights standing, he is more than willing to take one in order to give one and in this matchup that may be dangerous.

Garcia’s plan in any fight is to tax the opponent with forward striking pressure then initiate his apt clinching, takedown strategy. Once in the clasp and/or on the mat Garcia works to suck the life out of opponents with his constant pressure wrestling/grappling.

Garcia’s completes 3.13 takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time while being able to defend 76% of opponent takedowns. This means he often fights from top position.

Garcia’s opponent, Alex Hernandez takes this fight on the momentum of four straight wins, his latest a finish of Brazilian Diego Ferreira. Hernandez’s striking is his bread and butter.

Hernandez power is unusual but like Garcia, he is more than willing to receive one in order to unleash one. Hernandez negative .50 strike differential (per minute) is poor, but he overcomes getting flushed so often because of the tremendous power he packs in his shots.

This fight introduces fighters who are both entering with confidence and who are fighting for position for the victor of this fight see’s themselves in the top twenty of this stacked lightweight division.

Garcia will want to grapple and smear the floor with Hernandez while Hernandez will strive to keep this fight standing where he can attempt to maim the Mexican mauler.

Both men are confident in their application of their expertise, and both men stand to make substantial jumps in earning power with a victory Saturday night.

This fight will be highly competitive and it’s my take that it is likely to go to decision.

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds Over -220

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast, currently on a tear drops across all podcast platforms as well at GamgLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Puck Passion 2026: NHL Stanley Cup Business begins tomorrow!

Directions for GambLou.com NHL Puck Passion access

-Go to GambLou.com then tap the ‘NHL’ tab at the top of the webpage

-Scroll down and hit one of the ‘purchase now’ tabs

YOU WILL NOT BE CHARGED ANYTHING

-After inputting username, password etc. close out then re-sign in to Gamblou.com to ensure you have access to the NHL page.

When you see today’s date and a title, tap it and you will be directed to the page with the releases. This is how you will access releases daily!

Beginning Saturday morning sometime at least 30 minutes prior to puck drop you will need to sign into the ‘NHL’ page to access all future wagers, series investments and daily releases.

Questions? Lou@GambLou.com but if you wait until an hour before puck drop you will be out of luck… sign in and check NOW

Thank You Puck Passionates

UFC Mexico City Moreno vs. Kavanaugh: Unglued in altitude!

Mexico City Mexico hosts this week’s UFC fight slate, a card populated with a highly international cast of athletes converging on Mexico City to navigate both the extreme altitude as well opponents that in many cases live and train in the proximity of Mexico City.

Weekly we discuss the advantages age, location, and physical attributes provide each fighter and how they stack up against their opponents but in this week’s case, there is no more favorable advantage than to be able to live, train and dwell in or close to Mexico City especially if one is competing against someone that must travel into Mexico City from outside such drastic altitude.

Athletes able to afford a couple week’s of camp in Mexico City can acclimate appropriately in order to hold advantage or at least hold par against their opponent but for most, the cost of travel, team expenses, hotels, and training do not afford the many the ability to arrive early in order to acclimate to the altitude in Cuidado de Mexico.

This week my handicapping revolves around trying to uncover which athletes outside the local Mexican fighters are able to arrive into Mexico City early, acclimate, then perform at their best come fight night.

Fighters arriving inside of ten days’ time to try to assimilate to the altitude only fool themselves for it is widely understood that assimilation to the Mexico City altitude takes a minimum of ten to twelve days.

Altitude is the big edge this week.

Dogs went 10-4 again last week pushing favorites to a 2026 total of 36-12 or 75%.

Brandon Moreno -225 vs. Lone’er Kavanaugh +185 Flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event

Kavanaugh steps in on short notice as Moreno’s originally scheduled opponent, Asu Almabaev had to drop off the card due to injury.

Kavanaugh, an Englishman is 2-1 in the UFC after being stopped by Charles Johnson in his last bout. He will have his hands full for travel into Mexico City to face a former Mexican champion from halfway across the globe on short notice surely puts him in a disadvantageous position.

Kavanaugh will have a six-year youth advantage coming into this bout, but he will be giving away height, reach and a vast amount of world class fighting experience to Moreno.

Besides testing his mettle on a grizzled UFC veteran, Kavanaugh will learn quickly how important it is to compete against worthy UFC competition which he has not really accomplished yet in his youthful career.

Taking this fight on short notice and having to travel the globe to compete in Mexico City will surely provide Kavanaugh some future considerations as the UFC too understands that this is one difficult spot for the Englishman especially with the short notice nature of the matchup.

Once this fight begins look for Kavanaugh to be forceful with forward striking pressure, but he’ll not be able to provide Moreno with anything that the former champion has not seen yet.

Kavanaugh’s forte’ is striking and he’ll strike with Moreno from moment one and in that altitude, I project him to have about two and a half rounds of successful, frenetic pace before he begins to slow. After the start of round three he may simply become a sparring partner to the former champion fighting in front of his countrymen.

Kavanaugh may surprise Moreno with his youthful quickness, speed, and power and the Kavanaugh camp will arrive to Mexico City not to try to duel Moreno in decision form but rather tot try to jump him early and attempt to steal this fight with a flash knock-out.

That’s the only path I see for Mr. Kavanaugh.

Moreno, though only thirty-two has well more fight years under his belt than that. The wear on him from previous wars waged in the division are the only threats to his being sharp, fast, powerful, and conditioned in this battle.

Moreno on point is beguiling, crafty, intelligent, and versed with a wide array of mixed martial arts weaponry. That said, it’s believed that his best flyweight days may be behind him despite the fact that it may not be apparent in this week’s bout.

Moreno will look to force Kavanaugh to move early in this fight, he’ll fight such that Kavanaugh must use his legs to evade the forward pressure and volume striking that Moreno dishes out. The more Moreno forces Kavanaugh to expend energy in the early rounds the more likely it is for Moreno to get the kid out of there before the end of the scheduled five rounds.

This line opened Moreno -175 which appeared a little light. Moreno now stands -245, a number that depicts his many advantages more accurately in my judgement.

Total in this fight: I see some 3.5 totals and some 4.5 totals. Tiny men competing in a large cage usually indicates an easy over, but with the altitude variance here (Moreno training in it for weeks and Kavanaugh not) the chance for this fight to realize an under is well more likely.

David Martinez -250 vs. Marlon Vera +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

Ecuadoran Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera arrives to Mexico City prepared for war.

Vera, the number eight ranked bantamweight in the division will travel into Mexico City to face a violent David Martinez currently ranked number nine in the division.

A decorated black belt in BJJ, Vera, who is a notoriously slow starter has fought the elite of the division and while he is relatively powerless, he does possess great cardio, toughness and in lieu of power Vera unleashes strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees in flurries and from every angle.

Vera earned victory in 2023 against Brazilian Pedro Munhoz but has dropped all three fights since then against elite talent in Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo and Aiemann Zahabi who are all top ten athletes in the division.

David Martinez is your typical Mexican warrior. He is forward pressing and he arrives to any fight with world class power striking, an iron will and a granite jaw.

Martinez is a resident of Mexico City, so the prototypical Mexican fighter arrives to this fight with the knowledge that the elevation is his norm, he’s also highly intelligent having studied medicine at The National Autonomous University of Mexico so forcing Vera into frenetic exchanges early only sets the table for his success.

Martinez’ tenure in the UFC is but two fights deep so while he’ll be the more elevation acclimated athlete and the more powerful athlete, he will be giving away a dearth of experience to Vera who at thirty-three years old will be six years the older man in this fight.

Once this fight begins I look for Martinez to go immediately on attack. Vera will attempt to utilize footwork and cage maneuvers to maintain striking/kicking distance in order to try to pepper Martinez with a heavy volume of strikes/kicks as he forces his way into the pocket to engage.

Martinez, a Mexican fighter fighting out of Mexico City holds great advantage in this fight. I believe his advantage in this matchup is greater than his current price of -260 circa.

Martinez -260

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -425

This fight slate has three bouts where the favorite is lines -225 or lower, the rest of the matchup’s are lined with chalk being ridiculously high mostly because Mexican athletes are competing with combatants that are travelling in from other parts of the globe.

This is an easy card to go light on.

Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast will drop across all podcast platforms as well; it is always available at GambLou.com. Obtain all my final releases there once weigh-ins have been completed.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Gracias por leer y disfrutar de las peleas!

Future Wagers across the GambLou.com betting board!

From Football to NHL Playoff Passion, NCAA Hardball, World Baseball Classic, MLB and of course, the UFC

Football is past us and now I alter my focus into due diligence for the UFC, the upcoming NCAA hardball season as well the Passion that is the NHL playoffs, and the WBC.

The ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast along with the ‘Bout Business Podcast offer actionable information on the UFC every week there is a fight card.

As far as these other target sports I work, I encourage bottom line pursuers to keep your eyes trained right here for early future releases and other profitable fodder which will absolutely include the upcoming World Baseball Classic!

Here are my future releases for 2-9-26 that encompass all the sports I have wagered on to this point:

World Baseball Classic

Japan +320 2u

NCAA Hardball

Arkansas 18/1 (circa) 1u

LSU 10/1 (circa)   1u

Oregon State 30/1 (DK) .50u

Texas 15/1 (DK)  1u

UCLA 12/1 (DK) 1u

North Carolina 22/1 (Circa) .50u

NHL To win Conference

Tampa Bay Lightning +190 (DK) 1u

Montreal Canadiens +1400 (Circa)  1u

Minnesota Wild +800 (Circa)  1u

MLB To win World Series:

Dodgers +230 (Circa)  2u

UFC Future wagers

Umar Nurmagomedov BWX 12-31-26 +300 1u

Tsarukyan LWX 12-31-26 +350 1u

Zhang Women’s Flyweight 12-31-26 +155 1u

more later….

GambLou.com

It’s Business

UFC LV113 Bautista vs. Oliveira: Veni, Vidi, Vinicius

After two numbered events, the UFC returns to its ‘Meta APEX’ facility for this week’s UFC Fight Night Bautista vs. Oliveira.

This event is currently scheduled for thirteen fights to be held in the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon and in front of several more people than the APEX previously held as they have expanded the facility and its seating.

There are but four fighters from the states populating this highly international fight card as well there are five bouts where the combatants will be welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Large men in the less spacious cage employed by the APEX may provide viewers with an abundance of violent action.

Mario Bautista -190 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +165 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked bantamweight Oliveira, ‘Lok Dog’ as he is called is a highly athletic thirty-year-old Brazilian mixed martial artist. His fight base is comprised of BJJ with a highly effective power striking/kicking arsenal as supplement.

Oliveira’s speed, quickness, and lightning-fast striking acumen are foundational to his success as he has realized a 4-0 start to his UFC career. While able to grapple, Oliveira’s forte’ is the finish, as he’s KO’d sixteen of his twenty-three professional opponents with a couple of submission wins sprinkled in.

In each UFC bout thus far in his career, Oliveira has stepped up against ascending competition. He has realized a perfect 4-0 result with one finish, his debut, then three decision victories which highlights the fact that the level of competition he is facing is becoming sterner.

Oliveira’s opponent for this fight is the number eight ranked fighter in the division, Mario Bautista. We last saw Bautista clash with current number two ranked Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov in a fight that was highly competitive and one where Bautista forced the action and made Nurmagomedov fight for a full fifteen minutes. Most adversaries run from Nurmagomedov, Bautista took the fight right to him!

Bautista is the quiet man. He allows his fighting in the cage to do his talking for him. Coming into this fight off a loss should also provide Bautista with certain focus and fortitude as he had rattled off eight straight UFC wins against talented competition prior to the Nurmagomedov setback.

Bautista sports a solid wrestling base complimented with a black belt in BJJ under head coach John Crouch and highly advanced boxing acumen.  While maybe not as slick, quick, dynamic, or flashy as his opponent, Bautista has been in the cage with well more skilled, decorated, and dangerous adversaries than Oliveira.

Once this fight begins, fans will watch Oliveira attempt to utilize athleticism, and his unorthodox striking style to try to unleash looping, wide power shots onto Bautista. Oliveira will use speed early in his striking combinations, but he always finishes his flurries with profusely powerful hooks and crosses. This makes ‘Lok Dog’ a most challenging adversary.

For Bautista, he will be as the tortoise chasing the hare in that he will be the more stoic, determined, forward pressing, cage cutting athlete who will act to maneuver Oliveira into and against the fence, eliminate his space then open up by reigning damage over the less experienced yet powerful Brazilian.

Where Oliveria needs space, Bautista will strive to negate such space.

It’s highly probable that Bautista will utilize his developed wrestling acumen to clasp onto then grind on Oliveira, haul him to the mat then force him to expend his energy defending the wrestling as opposed to shucking and jiving in space while on his feet.

Bautista’s employment of the wrestling will serve two purposes, first, it will force the power striker to expend energy trying to escape from the takedowns then, second that wrestling pressure will fatigue the Brazilian leaving him less able to deal with the forceful forward pressure and diverse fight arsenal of Bautista.

This will be a terrific clash of styles but one where Bautista’s level of competition faced, his depth of experience and well-rounded fight acumen should prove to be too much for ‘Lok Dog’ for the longer this fight goes, the more dominant Bautista, and his unrelenting forward stalking pressure will become.

It’s my judgement that Bautista is simply too big a step up in class for the Brazilian at this stage of his career.

Bautista -190

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -135

Strong lean under

Jailton Almeida -145 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +125 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Russian athlete Rizvan Kuniev takes this, his sophomore bout in the UFC against the sixth ranked athlete in the division!

Kuniev is a finisher. He has earned eight of his twelve professional victories via finish, six via KO. Kuniev, who tips the scales at the 266-pound maximum weight is athletic for a large man, has profuse power in his hands and of course being Dagestani has a deep understanding of the wrestling game.

This is Kuniev’s second UFC bout. Based solely on his razor close split decision loss in his first UFC fight to current number four ranked Curtis Blaydes (a fight that could have been called either way) he seems well prepared to crash through the lower levels of modest UFC heavyweight talent and find himself in the top ten of the rankings with a victory in this fight.

The immense challenge for Kuniev is that he now goes from competing against a world class American wrestler in Blaydes to a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu specialist and one who carries freakish athleticism backed by profuse power in every limb in Almeida.

Brazil’s Jailton Almeida is the division’s number six ranked athlete. Where Kuniev flirts with the heavy weight limit of 265 lbs., Almeida, who is a sculpted, muscular man arrives to battle somewhat undersized hitting the cage around 240lbs.

Almeida is a black belt in BJJ as well he has had to compete in the heavyweight division of the UFC because no light heavyweight athletes (Almeida’s original weight class) would agree to enter the cage with him!  So, in order to get fights, Almeida jumped to heavyweight where he has accrued a 5-2 record against top ranked heavyweight talent.

Almeida’s heavy weight losses were at the hands of fourth ranked Blaydes then, in his last bout he lost a razor close decision to number two ranked Alexander Volkov. There is no shame in either of those losses.

Almeida’s athleticism, pure natural strength, cage savvy, and diverse fighting acumen allows him to compete effectively with the elite of the heavyweight division.

This dynamic clash of fighting styles and physical body types will be fascinating to watch for the adroit Almeida appears to be chiseled out of granite where Kuniev appears lumpy and rotund.

Almeida is being tested with this battle against Kuniev, and the result will clarify for the UFC if Jailton is to remain a top six athlete in the division. For Kuniev, a victory against the highly dangerous and decorated Almeida means instant inclusion into the division’s top ten.

Precision against Power, might against slight may best describe how I handicap this fight and it is the speed, experience and level of competition that direct me to the Almeida side not to mention Almeida’s finishing ability for he has finished twenty of twenty-one professional foes.

Almeida opened -550 for this fight, a ridiculous number, he stands currently -145. I call that a bargain.

Almeida -145

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Strong lean over.

Consider Almeida via decision also.

Michał Oleksiejczuk -360 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +295 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Michal O is a polished Polish striker who is basically inept in grappling/wrestling challenges. However, presented with any adversary that will accommodate him in a stand-up, striking duel, Michal O often shines.

Oleksiejczuk competed originally as an undersized light heavyweight until transitioning into the middleweight division where he has shown great aptitude…. against striking based fighters.

After dropping three bouts in 2024, Michal O earned first round finishes over two journeyman athletes last year, so he arrives to this confrontation brimming with confidence and advantages in power, footwork, and fight IQ.

In Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault we have a rank-and-file UFC athlete who is primarily a kickboxer, so Barriault arrives to the cage Saturday prepared to compete in a firefight striking match.

Barriault has eleven of seventeen wins which have come via the knockout.

So for this fight the stage is set, two determined, diligent striking based fighters are going to introduce themselves in the middle of the octagon and simply throw down until one man is left quivering on the canvas.

I expect Michal O to finish Barriault sometime in the first or second round of this battle as Barriault’s lack of speed and defensive strike evasion will be the determining factors in this bout.

Michal O via finish is the lean here however those prices are not yet released.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -160

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