Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 326 Holloway vs. Oliveira: BMF Championship

T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, NV. hosts this week’s UFC 326 Holloway vs. Oliveira for Holloway’s ‘BMF’ championship belt.

The event is scheduled for thirteen fights, five of which will be held at the larger weight classes of welterweight (170lbs.) and above which by the numbers means higher finish rates. The UFC has doubled the amount of their fighter bonuses to encourage exciting battles and dynamic finishes which thus far this year seems to be working.

There are four fights where there exits an age gap of six years or greater. Six years or more equates to at least a 62% rate of winning for the younger fighter in any particular battle.

Eleven of the twenty-six athletes on this fight card are from the USA. Three fights feature a U.S. athlete vs. another U.S. fighter which leaves five fights where an American is able to compete in Las Vegas against an opponent that must travel from outside the country to fight. Advantage goes to those five US athletes!

Fight fans will recognize many of the combatants on this fight slate as opposed to last week’s fight card that was populated with obscure relatively unknown talent.

Favorites continue to trample underdogs in 2026 as chalk is realizing a 75.4% result through February. Let’s trust that an eventual resurgence of underdogs does arise before the year gets much more mature.

Last week David Martinez -250 earned this column a unit of profit. Let’s reinvest that momentum into this stacked UFC 326 fight card!

Max Holloway -215 vs. Charles Oliveira +185 BMF Title (155lbs.)

This is a rematch of a fight, or shall I say a near fight that occurred in 2015 when Oliveira was thirteen fights into his UFC stint. Then much more of a submission specialist competing at the 145lb. featherweight division, Oliveira was less well rounded than he is today as well he carried the heavy burden of a reputation that revolved around his lack of intestinal fortitude.

Yes, then handicappers such as I questioned Oliveira’s ability to dig down deep and fight nasty, with determination especially when the fight got messy.

Unfortunately, that fight accentuated his reputation for being an athlete with a lack of fortitude as a mysterious aliment hit Oliveira early causing him to stop competing 1:36 into round one of that main event.

Oliveira’s ailment in that fight is a mystery to this day. Tapology cites the reason for the stoppage as a ‘shoulder or neck’ injury while others have maintained it was an esophageal issue/situation.

Whatever the reason, the facts are that Holloway was declared the winner and Oliveira had to spend years toiling in his attempt to remove the label of ‘quitter’ that he had earned based on the results of that fight and previous ones.

Flash forward to this week and we see a vastly different version of Oliveira. He is now a full grown lightweight (155lbs.) man. He’s incorporated highly effective striking weaponry to compliment his world class BJJ and his wrestling is solid.

Since that embarrassment against Holloway, Oliveira has realized a 17-6 record in the UFC with legitimate victories over athletes like Chandler, Gamrot, Poirier and Gaethje.

Now the third ranked lightweight in the division Oliveira marches into this matchup a much different fighter, competitor, and man than he was when these two first tangled in that odd 2015 main event.

Current BMF title holder Max Holloway, arguably the GOAT of the featherweight division (if there was no Alexander Volkanovski) earned the BMF belt in spectacular fashion in 2024 when he famously pointed to the center of the cage in his epic battle against lightweight Justin Gaethje, then knocked him face first and senseless to the canvas with one second remaining in that fight.

To the untrained eye, Holloway may appear to be less ‘well rounded’ than Oliveira but that is actually not the case.
Holloway’s incorporation of Boxing, Muay Thai, Wrestling and BJJ together make him a complete threat to anyone in the division and a dynamic finishing force inside the octagon.

Physically these two former featherweights now competing at lightweight are ultra dangerous as they’ve each grown into their 155-pound bodies and have a string of defeated opponents in their wake leading up to this rematch.

Once the bell rings we’ll see Oliveira attempt to press forward aggressively to exchange with Holloway but only long enough to try to clasp ahold of him then make this a fight ‘in a phone booth’ for Oliveira requires a fight waged from close quarters in order to be able to transition to and from grappling and striking.

Oliveira’s been wobbled and dropped in several previous fights, his strike defense is such that he takes a couple to dish a couple and in this matchup that must be minimized for standing too long against Holloway will have a disastrous result.

For Holloway, the blueprint is footwork first, because maintaining appropriate striking/kicking distance will be paramount for his success in this fight which is not to say that he can’t or won’t grapple with Charles.

Holloway’s BJJ is developed and while not as refined as Oliveira’s it is sound enough to be able to allow him to compete with Oliveira long enough to find his way back to his feet where his advantage is greatest.

Both of these men have faced the elite of the same two divisions for well over a decade now. Each man has earned signature wins and have experienced emotionally draining losses.

Each of these men has held a title and defended it yet it is this bit of unfinished business that drives both men as well the UFC and it’s fans into understanding that of all the BMF fights to date, this will be the most extreme, the most epic and the most competitive fight to date.

At the end of the day my handicap is that Holloway will be able to thwart the early grappling charges of Oliveira, he’ll be able to keep this fight standing and at distance which will allow him to in to bludgeon the Brazilian with a constant barrage of jabs, leg kicks, combinations and slicing elbows/knees.

Oliveira has battled to overcome the reputation of being mentally frail, but he has not been in the cage against THIS 2026 Max Holloway and on Saturday night it seems only a matter of time before Holloway’s diversity of movement, his striking acumen and his defensive aptitude allow him to systematically disassemble Oliveira over the course of this twenty-five-minute fight.

Holloway -215 circa

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -135.

I have also seen some 2.5 Rds. Over -160 totals in the marketplace which creates potential arbitrage betting opportunities.  Those considering the ‘Fight does not go to decision’ can make that wager (when those lines are opened up) then couple it with the over 2.5 Rds. creating a 12:30 minute middle potential while mitigating damage because one wager will win and the other will not unless they both realize profitability.

I’ll bet the ‘Over 2.5’ and the ‘fight does not go to decision’ when that prop comes out and make a middle attempt.

Ciao Borralho -260 vs. Renier de Ritter +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main event

We last saw eighth ranked middleweight de Ritter quit on the stool between the fourth and fifth round in his fight against fourth ranked Brendan Allen last October in France.

De Ritter, 4-1 in the UFC had looked stellar in his three wins leading up to the Allen debacle but now must return to the cage against a more sound and competent middleweight threat in Borralho in order to make amends.

What de Ritter does have is an absolute world class grappling acumen. He is a black belt in BJJ as well in Judo and throughout most of his career RDR competed at the 205-pound weight class.

For UFC competition RDR competes at 185 lbs. which provides him great advantage for he is always the much larger man in the cage against UFC middleweights. With that advantage, however, comes risk and said risk is found in the fact that in order to make that aggressive weight cut to 185 lbs. RDR can compromise his fighting output by warring with the weight cut previous to the fight.

This is what transpired in the Brendan Allen fight as RDR eventually ran out of gas then immediately ran out of heart.

So the question for this fight is how will RDR address the weight in the weeks and days leading up to a fight with an adversary well more equipped and dangerous than Allen?

This matchup is a three-round fight, so RDR gets a reprieve as he has battled in five round fights in his last two UFC appearances, one a victory over former champion Robert Whittaker then the dud he threw up against Allen.

Brazilian warrior Ciao Borralho is RDR’s opponent Saturday. He enters this showdown with confidence surging despite arriving to this fight off a loss to Nassourdine Imavov in his last bout.

Borralho, a leader of the ‘Fighting Nerds’ fight team arrives to this showdown with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a black belt in Muay Thai striking a brown belt as well in judo which together help explain his quick ascension into the division’s elite.

Borralho’s combination of speed, power, fight weaponry, mental toughness, and forward pressing aggression make him a threat to any athlete in this division despite his relatively short compact body type.

Once this fight begins we’ll see RDR immediately try to use his massive body structure/frame to envelope Borralho, clinch him up, push him against the fence then eventually take him to the mat where Borralho’s grappling skill, world class in nature will be forced into dealing with a man every bit as equipped in BJJ as he but one that sports a massive size advantage.

While these two are similar in the aptitude of their grappling, they are much different for only one man possesses the ability to strike and injure and that’s the Brazilian.

RDR possesses pedestrian striking, there is little speed, crispness or power in his strikes and he rarely throws in numbers as his stand up is but a foil to set up him grappling.

RDR is a one trick UFC pony.

Borralho will own a substantial striking advantage even though he can be a bit telegraphing and wide with his strikes in the heat of battle. The more complete mixed martial arts weaponry belongs to Borralho while the size, strength, and grappling advantage side with RDR.

In a three round battle these two are seemingly well matched and it’s my judgment that this fight will be more competitive than the current pricing on these men suggests.

RDR’s size will be a major factor in this outcome. Should he be able to ground Borralho and gain top position at any point in this fight then he absolutely has the ability to finish the BJJ Black belt.

Meanwhile any great advantage Borralho owns in the striking department becomes somewhat muted based on the fact that RDR is six inches the taller combatant as well he sports a four-inch reach advantage with his arms.

I can muddy the picture even further by mentioning that each of these fighters are southpaws and when two southpaws face each other odd things do occur and often occur.

Borralho’s speed, his nasty nature and his striking together lead me to believe he should be the favorite in this battle but not one with this high of price tag. I don’t believe current pricing is reflective of the kind of fight I expect from the man from the Netherlands.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

Gregory Rodrigues -205 vs. Brunno Ferreira +185 Middleweight (185lbs.)

In January of 2023, the UFC gave debuting Brazilian power striker Brunno ‘the Hulk’ Ferreira an almost impossible task by matching him up in his debut UFC fight against fellow Brazilian mixed martial artist Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues.

In that fight the more complete mixed martial artist Rodrigues failed to utilize his grappling instead choosing to try to ‘hook with a hooker’ and out slug the shorter, more compact, more explosive and well less diversified fighter in Ferreira.

Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first round.

Saturday Rodrigues, a black belt in BJJ gets his opportunity to rematch Ferreira in a fight where he understands completely the dangers of standing and trading with the short, compact, highly explosive, and profusely powerful keg of dynamite that is Ferreira.

For this rematch Rodrigues must put pride aside and grapple this anvil of an opponent for should he loose focus and attempt to stand and trade power shots with Ferreira the result of this fight will be the same as in their first.

However, should Rodrigues be able to effectively close distance on Ferreira, clasp onto him then force him to expend energy fending off the advances of Rodrigues then this fight may turn completely to Robocop’s favor.

Ferreira’s been defeated twice in his UFC career since that debut win against Rodrigues and in each instance it was an athlete with deep grappling ability that exposed Ferreira’s lack of a complete mixed martial arts arsenal.

So the plan for Rodrigues is clear, respect the power of the short, squat keg of dynamite that is Ferreira and as early as possible transition this fight from a striking battle to a grappling battle.

Should Robocop execute this plan then he will make amends for the complete lack of fight IQ he displayed in the first fight when he decided to stand and hook with a hooker.

Rodrigues must grapple this man in order to get his hand raised.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -125

Strong lean over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms, get my final releases for UFC there or at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Mexico City Moreno vs. Kavanaugh: Unglued in altitude!

Mexico City Mexico hosts this week’s UFC fight slate, a card populated with a highly international cast of athletes converging on Mexico City to navigate both the extreme altitude as well opponents that in many cases live and train in the proximity of Mexico City.

Weekly we discuss the advantages age, location, and physical attributes provide each fighter and how they stack up against their opponents but in this week’s case, there is no more favorable advantage than to be able to live, train and dwell in or close to Mexico City especially if one is competing against someone that must travel into Mexico City from outside such drastic altitude.

Athletes able to afford a couple week’s of camp in Mexico City can acclimate appropriately in order to hold advantage or at least hold par against their opponent but for most, the cost of travel, team expenses, hotels, and training do not afford the many the ability to arrive early in order to acclimate to the altitude in Cuidado de Mexico.

This week my handicapping revolves around trying to uncover which athletes outside the local Mexican fighters are able to arrive into Mexico City early, acclimate, then perform at their best come fight night.

Fighters arriving inside of ten days’ time to try to assimilate to the altitude only fool themselves for it is widely understood that assimilation to the Mexico City altitude takes a minimum of ten to twelve days.

Altitude is the big edge this week.

Dogs went 10-4 again last week pushing favorites to a 2026 total of 36-12 or 75%.

Brandon Moreno -225 vs. Lone’er Kavanaugh +185 Flyweight (125lbs.) Main Event

Kavanaugh steps in on short notice as Moreno’s originally scheduled opponent, Asu Almabaev had to drop off the card due to injury.

Kavanaugh, an Englishman is 2-1 in the UFC after being stopped by Charles Johnson in his last bout. He will have his hands full for travel into Mexico City to face a former Mexican champion from halfway across the globe on short notice surely puts him in a disadvantageous position.

Kavanaugh will have a six-year youth advantage coming into this bout, but he will be giving away height, reach and a vast amount of world class fighting experience to Moreno.

Besides testing his mettle on a grizzled UFC veteran, Kavanaugh will learn quickly how important it is to compete against worthy UFC competition which he has not really accomplished yet in his youthful career.

Taking this fight on short notice and having to travel the globe to compete in Mexico City will surely provide Kavanaugh some future considerations as the UFC too understands that this is one difficult spot for the Englishman especially with the short notice nature of the matchup.

Once this fight begins look for Kavanaugh to be forceful with forward striking pressure, but he’ll not be able to provide Moreno with anything that the former champion has not seen yet.

Kavanaugh’s forte’ is striking and he’ll strike with Moreno from moment one and in that altitude, I project him to have about two and a half rounds of successful, frenetic pace before he begins to slow. After the start of round three he may simply become a sparring partner to the former champion fighting in front of his countrymen.

Kavanaugh may surprise Moreno with his youthful quickness, speed, and power and the Kavanaugh camp will arrive to Mexico City not to try to duel Moreno in decision form but rather tot try to jump him early and attempt to steal this fight with a flash knock-out.

That’s the only path I see for Mr. Kavanaugh.

Moreno, though only thirty-two has well more fight years under his belt than that. The wear on him from previous wars waged in the division are the only threats to his being sharp, fast, powerful, and conditioned in this battle.

Moreno on point is beguiling, crafty, intelligent, and versed with a wide array of mixed martial arts weaponry. That said, it’s believed that his best flyweight days may be behind him despite the fact that it may not be apparent in this week’s bout.

Moreno will look to force Kavanaugh to move early in this fight, he’ll fight such that Kavanaugh must use his legs to evade the forward pressure and volume striking that Moreno dishes out. The more Moreno forces Kavanaugh to expend energy in the early rounds the more likely it is for Moreno to get the kid out of there before the end of the scheduled five rounds.

This line opened Moreno -175 which appeared a little light. Moreno now stands -245, a number that depicts his many advantages more accurately in my judgement.

Total in this fight: I see some 3.5 totals and some 4.5 totals. Tiny men competing in a large cage usually indicates an easy over, but with the altitude variance here (Moreno training in it for weeks and Kavanaugh not) the chance for this fight to realize an under is well more likely.

David Martinez -250 vs. Marlon Vera +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main event

Ecuadoran Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera arrives to Mexico City prepared for war.

Vera, the number eight ranked bantamweight in the division will travel into Mexico City to face a violent David Martinez currently ranked number nine in the division.

A decorated black belt in BJJ, Vera, who is a notoriously slow starter has fought the elite of the division and while he is relatively powerless, he does possess great cardio, toughness and in lieu of power Vera unleashes strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees in flurries and from every angle.

Vera earned victory in 2023 against Brazilian Pedro Munhoz but has dropped all three fights since then against elite talent in Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo and Aiemann Zahabi who are all top ten athletes in the division.

David Martinez is your typical Mexican warrior. He is forward pressing and he arrives to any fight with world class power striking, an iron will and a granite jaw.

Martinez is a resident of Mexico City, so the prototypical Mexican fighter arrives to this fight with the knowledge that the elevation is his norm, he’s also highly intelligent having studied medicine at The National Autonomous University of Mexico so forcing Vera into frenetic exchanges early only sets the table for his success.

Martinez’ tenure in the UFC is but two fights deep so while he’ll be the more elevation acclimated athlete and the more powerful athlete, he will be giving away a dearth of experience to Vera who at thirty-three years old will be six years the older man in this fight.

Once this fight begins I look for Martinez to go immediately on attack. Vera will attempt to utilize footwork and cage maneuvers to maintain striking/kicking distance in order to try to pepper Martinez with a heavy volume of strikes/kicks as he forces his way into the pocket to engage.

Martinez, a Mexican fighter fighting out of Mexico City holds great advantage in this fight. I believe his advantage in this matchup is greater than his current price of -260 circa.

Martinez -260

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -425

This fight slate has three bouts where the favorite is lines -225 or lower, the rest of the matchup’s are lined with chalk being ridiculously high mostly because Mexican athletes are competing with combatants that are travelling in from other parts of the globe.

This is an easy card to go light on.

Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast will drop across all podcast platforms as well; it is always available at GambLou.com. Obtain all my final releases there once weigh-ins have been completed.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Gracias por leer y disfrutar de las peleas!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV113 Bautista vs. Oliveira: Veni, Vidi, Vinicius

After two numbered events, the UFC returns to its ‘Meta APEX’ facility for this week’s UFC Fight Night Bautista vs. Oliveira.

This event is currently scheduled for thirteen fights to be held in the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon and in front of several more people than the APEX previously held as they have expanded the facility and its seating.

There are but four fighters from the states populating this highly international fight card as well there are five bouts where the combatants will be welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Large men in the less spacious cage employed by the APEX may provide viewers with an abundance of violent action.

Mario Bautista -190 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +165 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked bantamweight Oliveira, ‘Lok Dog’ as he is called is a highly athletic thirty-year-old Brazilian mixed martial artist. His fight base is comprised of BJJ with a highly effective power striking/kicking arsenal as supplement.

Oliveira’s speed, quickness, and lightning-fast striking acumen are foundational to his success as he has realized a 4-0 start to his UFC career. While able to grapple, Oliveira’s forte’ is the finish, as he’s KO’d sixteen of his twenty-three professional opponents with a couple of submission wins sprinkled in.

In each UFC bout thus far in his career, Oliveira has stepped up against ascending competition. He has realized a perfect 4-0 result with one finish, his debut, then three decision victories which highlights the fact that the level of competition he is facing is becoming sterner.

Oliveira’s opponent for this fight is the number eight ranked fighter in the division, Mario Bautista. We last saw Bautista clash with current number two ranked Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov in a fight that was highly competitive and one where Bautista forced the action and made Nurmagomedov fight for a full fifteen minutes. Most adversaries run from Nurmagomedov, Bautista took the fight right to him!

Bautista is the quiet man. He allows his fighting in the cage to do his talking for him. Coming into this fight off a loss should also provide Bautista with certain focus and fortitude as he had rattled off eight straight UFC wins against talented competition prior to the Nurmagomedov setback.

Bautista sports a solid wrestling base complimented with a black belt in BJJ under head coach John Crouch and highly advanced boxing acumen.  While maybe not as slick, quick, dynamic, or flashy as his opponent, Bautista has been in the cage with well more skilled, decorated, and dangerous adversaries than Oliveira.

Once this fight begins, fans will watch Oliveira attempt to utilize athleticism, and his unorthodox striking style to try to unleash looping, wide power shots onto Bautista. Oliveira will use speed early in his striking combinations, but he always finishes his flurries with profusely powerful hooks and crosses. This makes ‘Lok Dog’ a most challenging adversary.

For Bautista, he will be as the tortoise chasing the hare in that he will be the more stoic, determined, forward pressing, cage cutting athlete who will act to maneuver Oliveira into and against the fence, eliminate his space then open up by reigning damage over the less experienced yet powerful Brazilian.

Where Oliveria needs space, Bautista will strive to negate such space.

It’s highly probable that Bautista will utilize his developed wrestling acumen to clasp onto then grind on Oliveira, haul him to the mat then force him to expend his energy defending the wrestling as opposed to shucking and jiving in space while on his feet.

Bautista’s employment of the wrestling will serve two purposes, first, it will force the power striker to expend energy trying to escape from the takedowns then, second that wrestling pressure will fatigue the Brazilian leaving him less able to deal with the forceful forward pressure and diverse fight arsenal of Bautista.

This will be a terrific clash of styles but one where Bautista’s level of competition faced, his depth of experience and well-rounded fight acumen should prove to be too much for ‘Lok Dog’ for the longer this fight goes, the more dominant Bautista, and his unrelenting forward stalking pressure will become.

It’s my judgement that Bautista is simply too big a step up in class for the Brazilian at this stage of his career.

Bautista -190

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -135

Strong lean under

Jailton Almeida -145 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +125 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Russian athlete Rizvan Kuniev takes this, his sophomore bout in the UFC against the sixth ranked athlete in the division!

Kuniev is a finisher. He has earned eight of his twelve professional victories via finish, six via KO. Kuniev, who tips the scales at the 266-pound maximum weight is athletic for a large man, has profuse power in his hands and of course being Dagestani has a deep understanding of the wrestling game.

This is Kuniev’s second UFC bout. Based solely on his razor close split decision loss in his first UFC fight to current number four ranked Curtis Blaydes (a fight that could have been called either way) he seems well prepared to crash through the lower levels of modest UFC heavyweight talent and find himself in the top ten of the rankings with a victory in this fight.

The immense challenge for Kuniev is that he now goes from competing against a world class American wrestler in Blaydes to a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu specialist and one who carries freakish athleticism backed by profuse power in every limb in Almeida.

Brazil’s Jailton Almeida is the division’s number six ranked athlete. Where Kuniev flirts with the heavy weight limit of 265 lbs., Almeida, who is a sculpted, muscular man arrives to battle somewhat undersized hitting the cage around 240lbs.

Almeida is a black belt in BJJ as well he has had to compete in the heavyweight division of the UFC because no light heavyweight athletes (Almeida’s original weight class) would agree to enter the cage with him!  So, in order to get fights, Almeida jumped to heavyweight where he has accrued a 5-2 record against top ranked heavyweight talent.

Almeida’s heavy weight losses were at the hands of fourth ranked Blaydes then, in his last bout he lost a razor close decision to number two ranked Alexander Volkov. There is no shame in either of those losses.

Almeida’s athleticism, pure natural strength, cage savvy, and diverse fighting acumen allows him to compete effectively with the elite of the heavyweight division.

This dynamic clash of fighting styles and physical body types will be fascinating to watch for the adroit Almeida appears to be chiseled out of granite where Kuniev appears lumpy and rotund.

Almeida is being tested with this battle against Kuniev, and the result will clarify for the UFC if Jailton is to remain a top six athlete in the division. For Kuniev, a victory against the highly dangerous and decorated Almeida means instant inclusion into the division’s top ten.

Precision against Power, might against slight may best describe how I handicap this fight and it is the speed, experience and level of competition that direct me to the Almeida side not to mention Almeida’s finishing ability for he has finished twenty of twenty-one professional foes.

Almeida opened -550 for this fight, a ridiculous number, he stands currently -145. I call that a bargain.

Almeida -145

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Strong lean over.

Consider Almeida via decision also.

Michał Oleksiejczuk -360 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +295 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Michal O is a polished Polish striker who is basically inept in grappling/wrestling challenges. However, presented with any adversary that will accommodate him in a stand-up, striking duel, Michal O often shines.

Oleksiejczuk competed originally as an undersized light heavyweight until transitioning into the middleweight division where he has shown great aptitude…. against striking based fighters.

After dropping three bouts in 2024, Michal O earned first round finishes over two journeyman athletes last year, so he arrives to this confrontation brimming with confidence and advantages in power, footwork, and fight IQ.

In Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault we have a rank-and-file UFC athlete who is primarily a kickboxer, so Barriault arrives to the cage Saturday prepared to compete in a firefight striking match.

Barriault has eleven of seventeen wins which have come via the knockout.

So for this fight the stage is set, two determined, diligent striking based fighters are going to introduce themselves in the middle of the octagon and simply throw down until one man is left quivering on the canvas.

I expect Michal O to finish Barriault sometime in the first or second round of this battle as Barriault’s lack of speed and defensive strike evasion will be the determining factors in this bout.

Michal O via finish is the lean here however those prices are not yet released.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -160

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning across all podcast platforms. Catch it also at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 325 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Cowboy Ciao?

Sydney, Australia is the host city for this week’s UFC 325 a fight card populated with ten legitimate UFC matchups and four ‘Road to the UFC’ fights.

Sydney will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon, and these battles will be held in front of an always raucous Aussie crowd.

Start time in the USA is 2PM PST for early prelims, 4PM PST for Preliminary fights then 6PM PST for the main card which will be the norm for these Paramount events,

As an aside, this column handicaps UFC fights only so this week we have ten bouts populated with an international set of combatants. Nine Aussie athletes (and Fiziev from Phuket, Thailand) will benefit from the lack of travel while fighters from the US, Mexico Brazil and Wales will need to commute into Australia for their confrontations all against local Aussie fighting talent.

Travel to any foreign fight slate is an important factor especially regarding fighter weigh-ins as plane rides bloat passengers. Another factor is WHEN athletes arrive to any foreign location for altitude and time differences are real factors in fights and must be addressed by athletes and handicappers alike.

Handicapping this or any foreign event means understanding that often local/regional athletes can be paired in somewhat favorable matchups to both encourage the crowd to be hysterical as well and more importantly to spread the UFC’s brand in that geographical area.

In other words, there can be great advantage being a local/regional athlete when the UFC travels abroad,

Last week favorites went 8-3 in the UFC after realizing a 330-154-18 (65.7%) result in 2025.

Alexander Volkanovski -160 vs. Diego Lopes +145 Featherweight (145lbs.) Title

This is an immediate rematch of a championship battle that transpired last April in Miami where Volkanovski retained his featherweight title via a unanimous decision.

Current number two ranked Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC in May of 2023 and took current UFC featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s number one ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice!

Since that decision loss, Lopes, who has leapfrogged over Evloev for this SECOND title opportunity has dominated five highly decorated featherweight adversaries leading into that championship opportunity last April against Vokanovski where he was exposed on several levels.

In that bout Volkanovski, then thirty-six displayed keen footwork, world class wrestling and a depth of fight experience in remaining one step ahead of thirty-year-old Lopes on his way to a definitive unanimous decision win.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will still hold that five-year youth advantage coming into this return fight, he remains six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the champion but I question what he has accomplished physically in the last calendar year to close the skill gap between he and Volkanovski.

In fact he was displaying similar difficulty keeping up with his last opponent Brazilian Jean Silva before Silva ran into a spinning elbow that ended the fight.

Lopes has substantial power and while he is tough, durable and steps into this bout after that stunning knockout victory over Silva, my judgement is that what he needed to refine and improve the most, namely his footwork and quickness in order to compete with the current champion have not been addressed appropriately from last year to this.

Volkanovski has not fought since these two last tangled as well he competes in his home country Australia as opposed to the travel he incurred for their last fight in the Latino mecca that is Miami, Fl.

Volkanovski’s intelligence, his cardio, the completeness of his mixed martial arts weaponry and his deft strike defense together with his nimble footwork and depth of five round championship experience still provide him advantage over anyone in the division let alone a young but hungry warrior he beat soundly less than one year ago.

Volkanovski opened -130/-135 for the first bout between these two and closed at -155/-160.

For this championship bout Volkanovski opened -150/-155 where this line sits currently.

Total in this fight: sits 3.5Rds -130 at some shops and 4.5 Rds. -110 at others.

When I see these early differences in totals, the end result almost always ends up being a fight lined at 4.5 rounds.  There is advantage to be had if one considers attacking that 3.5 Rds. Over -130 (DK).

Mauricio Ruffy -120 vs. Raphael Fiziev +100

Ruffy, the organizations fourteenth ranked lightweight arrives to Australia prepared to rectify the beating he incurred at the hands of Benoit Saint-Denis last September. Prior to that fight Ruffy, a Fighting Nerd from Brazil who is a long, lean striking machine displayed tremendous aptitude, speed, and refined precision in decimating several worthy adversaries.

Not decorated with any awarded belts, Ruffy does display lighting fast Capoeira tendencies which include spinning heel kicks, flying knees and an overall aggressive display of striking aggression.

What exposed the aggressive flamboyant striker in that last fight was his complete inability to grapple, wrestle or defend the takedown, a weakness that will soon need to be addressed ..but not for this bout.

For this fight Ruffy draws a great dance partner in Rafael Fiziev who is the striking coach at Phuket, Thailand’s Tiger Muay Thai, a gym that is world renown.

Fiziev too packs great power in his diversity of strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees. What makes this fight so fascinating is that neither of these cats can even spell wrestling. Spectator’s watching this artillery launch will witness a short, compact, explosive Kyrgyzstani in Fiziev who holds a blue belt in BJJ compete against a man similarly equipped in UFC weaponry, however one who will stand thee inches taller, will hold a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and will be three years the younger combatant.

Once this fight begins my best advice is to not blink, for Ruffy will strive to maintain distance and bludgeon the incoming Fiziev with numbing strikes which will emanate from every angle, and limb.

Fiziev for his part has matrix-like defense and it will be his chore to navigate his way inside on Ruffy which will mute Ruffy’s length/effectiveness and simultaneously allow Fiziev to unleash his own artistic yet devastating array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks onto the Brazilian athlete.

The clash of body types and the relative similarities in how each of these dominators wants to win should be epic watching.

In the end, it is Fiziev, 7-4 in the UFC, who has been in with the more qualified and capable set of opponents, it’s Fiziev who has the benefit of little travel as well he’ll have the crowd on his side.

Ruffy, 3-1 in the UFC will need to navigate that trip from Brazil, make weight then fight the regional athlete in Fiziev in Fiziev’s hemisphere. But with that said, youth, speed, flash, and dynamic may well rest on the Ruffy side.

This bout opened a dead pick-em (-110 each man) and current fight lines can be found from Ruffy -120 to Fiziev -115.

Shop wisely my friends!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Strong lean over

Quillan Salkilld -1000 vs. Jaime Mullarkey +700 Lightweight (155lbs)

It’s not often we write up a fight with such a cavernous spread difference between combatants, but this fight is going to be the fight that ignites the crowd for this event.

Salkilld is a dead finisher having earned KO’s or submissions in seven of his eleven professional bouts.

He was originally matched up with a Chinese mixed martial artist that was going to accommodate both he and the crowd in China’s RongZhu, a Sanda kickboxing based fighter who is aggressive and powerful.

Rong Zhu was forced to pull out of the fight.

Salkilld pleaded with the UFC to keep him on the card because as one may expect, being an Aussie and competing in front of one’s home compatriots is an honor and Salkilld wanted to remain on the event desperately.

The UFC with it’s deft ability to always keep fight cards populated, found fellow Australian fighter Jamie Mullarkey to jump into this event on but a couple of weeks of notice.

While Salkilld is a finishing machine, Mullarkey unfortunately is a man who gets finished.

Mullarkey, an uber aggressive power striker has twelve fights of experience in the UFC realizing a 6-6 record however, he’s been brutally finished in four of his last eight bouts and the few victories he’s enjoyed were to athletes most of whom no longer compete in the organization.

Props for this fight are not available yet, but this total is listed 1.5 Rds. -165 Under.

It is safe to advise Salkilld via finish in this fight and further even look to Salkilld via KO/TKO/DQ in order to attempt to pry a price out of a fight where the result is almost certain.

Jacob Malkoun -220 vs. Torrez Finney +190 Middleweight (185lbs.)

This is the dinosaur fight.

Not that these guys are old, but each is a wrestling based fighter and in this new Paramount age of violence, finishes and frenzy fifteen minutes of two men rolling on the canvas is not only distasteful to the UFC but the crowd as well. Too bad.

None the less these two will face off in what I handicap to be the wrong man may be favored fight.

Malkoun, 4-3 in the UFC has had an inconsistent UFC career which may be the result of grotesque inactivity.

After three bouts in 2022, Malkoun fought once in 2023 and once in March of 2024, so he’s been on the shelf and in the gym since then.

Evolution in the fight game takes place in the gym yes, but also in the octagon under the bright lights.

The inactivity of Malkoun is of great concern here despite the fact that he’s primarily a wrestler with some degree of danger in his hands.

In Torrez Finney we get a sawed-off American wrestling talent who is as stout as he is tall.

Finney is mad athletic for his build and has had a deep history in competitive wrestling, but his strikes are telegraphed, wide and easy to evade.

Once this fight begins I believe it will be difficult for Malkoun to try to fend off the unrelenting forward pressing wrester that is Finney.

Finney wants to win fights at this early stage of his career, so he will simply sell out in the wrestling then hope to reign damage on the Aussie from the dominant top position.

While Malkoun should hold a striking advantage, it may be difficult for him to create enough space to breath let alone throw a punch.

The difference in wrestling prowess is too wide for the Australian Malkoun to overcome as I handicap this bout.

Finney +190 (circa)

The lines to this fight are all over the board so shop accordingly to capture the best price on Finney available.

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Over -200

Strong lean over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all Podcast platforms, it’s also available at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 324 Gaethje vs. Pimlett: ‘Suga’ Daddy

After a welcome hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for a fight production to be aired on Paramount called UFC 324. This event will feature the larger thirty-foot octagon and a packed house of fight fanatics.

Welcome news for fight enthusiasts is that with a subscription to Paramount, all fights this year are free as the era of pay-per-view events ends.

There are thirteen scheduled bouts for this card, five of which will be held at the Welterweight division (170lbs.) and above. The larger the combatants the greater chance for finishes.

There are six bouts on this card where a youth advantage of six years or greater exists between opponents. Fighters six years younger than their opponents realize a 62%-win rate. Fighters who are more than six years younger than their opponents realize even greater advantages so it’s critical to understand not only the physical and mental capacities of each combatant but their age and who they have competed against in recent fights as well.

While this is an international set of fighters converging in Las Vegas, only two fights feature someone from out of the country facing a domestic US athlete, so home octagon advantage exists in only two fights one being the main event.

Now let’s break down a couple of fascinating fight matchups.

Paddy Pimlett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195 Lightweight (155lbs.) Interim Title

English mixed martial artist Paddy Pimlett is from Liverpool, England and a proud ‘scouser’ he is.

Pimlett began his MMA journey at the age of fifteen and has developed into a wildly popular/magnetic UFC athlete.

Paddy ‘the baddy’ as he is called is a second-degree black belt in BJJ. He has shown the ability to fluster opponents in the octagon then force them into making mistakes where Pimlett, now twenty-nine is able to engulf them in his grappling.

From engagement Pimlett has a deft ability to find the opponent’s back or alternatively grab their neck, an arm or leg and submit them with brilliant efficiency.

Despite Pimlett being an inch shorter than Gaethje, his opponent this weekend, he will enter the cage well over 170lbs. He is athletic, strong, and able to utilize his size in grappling transitions that few of his past opponents have been able to stop.

Pimlett is 7-0 in his UFC competition with a razor close win over one Jarod Gordon that was graded a win but in actuality may have been one of the worse decisions in MMA.

Nonetheless, Paddy’s ‘Scouser’ submission ability and his tremendous popularity put him right behind Suga’ Sean O’Malley as the ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of fighters with the far-reaching draw and profuse popularity the UFC so yearns to promote and earn from.

Former ‘BMF’ Champion as well as former lightweight interim champion Justin Gaethje is Pimlett’s adversary this week.

Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight finishing striking power that can come from any kick, elbow, fist or flying knee and he throws them all with ill intent.

Gaethje utilizes numbing low leg/calf kicks to maim opponents then once compromised, he unleashes devastating power strikes that often leave opponents incapacitated.

Gaethje is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster and at thirty-seven years old he has made it clear that with a victory here he transitions into a championship fight against currently shelved lightweight title holder Ilya Topuria.

What separates Gaethje from Pimlett, is that Gaethje has competed against the elite and most dominant athletes in the division for several years now.  Pimlett has not and many feel he is in this spot simply because of his popularity and his ability to draw people to fights.

Since 2019 Gaethje has only had setbacks against elite athletes in the division such as Charles Oliveira, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway. Gaethje dominated top ten ranked fighters like Tiger Muay Thai’s striking coach Raphael Fiziev (twice) and former lightweight champion and future hall of famer, Dustin Poirier.

All of these former opponents have tested Gaethje’s mettle and have prepared him to realize great advantage in level of competition faced when he steps into this fight against Paddy Saturday night.

It’s Gaethje’s age and ability to fend off the Pimlett takedown attempts and unrelenting grappling advances that become the single focus of how this fight transpires in my judgement.

Once this bout starts, Gaethje, who rarely utilizes his wrestling skill, other than take down defense will look to keep this fight standing then counterattack with those lethal kicks to numb Paddy’s legs then mark him up with an array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks to the dome.

Paddy for his part will need to navigate through the barrage of power shots and find a way to clasp onto Gaethje, press him against the fence and close distance which will set him up to try to grab ahold of anything, a leg, an arm or ride Gaethje’s back in order to mute that forceful striking and transition this fight into a grappling match where Pimlett should possess great advantage.

The clash of each combatants style, the difference in level of competition faced and the age difference in this fight are all foundational to its outcome.

At the end of the day the magnetism of the Englishman is everything the UFC is yearning for, despite his shallow fight resume while fighters like the thirty-seven-year-old Gaethje will be put up against the hungry young lions on the rise in order to ‘clean-out’ the organization of its aged, higher paid talent. After all, it is a business!

The UFC yearns to develop and highlight athletes that have dynamic magnetism/appeal beside being capable finishers as they realize what puts butts in the seats.

They see particularly great future value in the ‘Scouser’ from Liverpool and while they will claim they don’t prefer one fighter over any other but make little mistake that in this new Paramount era…. They actually will award fighters who draw crowds and finish opponents with great advantages in upcoming matchups.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -120

Lean Over

Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main

Fifth ranked UFC bantamweight Song Yadong, began learning Sambo at the age of nine then transitioned into MMA just a few years after.

From the age of twenty-two on he’s trained at team Alpha Male in northern California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and team.

Over the course of the last decade the groomers at Alpha Male have equipped the twenty-eight-year-old Yadong with effective wrestling, strong take down defense and tremendous cardio ability, all aspects of his fight game that needed improvement.

Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that his opponent, Sean O’Malley is primarily a striker and a highly precise one at that. Further, Yadong will be focused on negating the striking prowess of O’Malley and his long, sinewy frame. To do so Yadong will need to work his way ‘inside the pocket’ and utilize everything Alpha Male has instilled in him to keep this fight in close and dirty as opposed to out in space and distance where his opponent may maneuver freely.

This is a foundational fight for Yadong for should he be able to find O’Malley with a power shot or even be able to grind him against the fence from close quarters then wrestle him up to earn victory he propels himself into that third ranked position currently held by O’Malley.

Yadong’s adversary needs little introduction.

Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a lightning rod of popularity among today’s young fight fans, and his immense popularity goes well beyond just the fight game.

Besides his electric persona O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks and an underrated BJJ game that he has been cultivating for years.

O’Malley strengths are his agility, coordination, speed and precision striking ability but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize in this battle against Yadong who is the stronger athlete and who understands that in space this is O’Malley’s fight so the elimination of distance will surely be the goal of Yadong.

O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and at distance where he may utilize the advantages he sports such as deft movement, great footwork, the creation of striking and kicking angles and lastly his ability to evade strikes from adversaries. The thirty-foot cage also compliments the fighting style and athleticism O’Malley will utilize to keep his adversary at distance and the end of his precision strikes.

The uninformed will claim O’Malley is, not nor will he ever be an effective wrestler/grappler, which is simply not the case. While his wrestling pales in comparison to former champion Merab Dvalishvili it is developed enough to be able to thwart the efforts of Yadong in this matchup.

O’Malley’s arrives to this opportunity beaming with confidence. He understands what he is to the UFC as a title contender and that with his dynamic popularity and drawing power he is but one twin away (this one) from a title rematch with current champion Petr Yan whom O’Malley beat in a highly controversial split decision in October of 2022.

The evolution of the UFC and their new broadcast partner looking to harness fighters with immense popularity coupled with finishing power and drawing potential is upon us.

This co main event was specifically designed to provide one of the UFC’s greatest drawing personalities with an advantageous matchup opportunity in order to boomerang him into a bantamweight super fight with current champion Yan.

The only barricade in the design is Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong.

The foundation of this fight handicap revolves around the deft O’Malley footwork and his matrixlike strike evasion.

It’s my judgement that Yadong will struggle trying to catch up with O’Malley, especially in the spacious thirty-foot octagon. O’Malley’s feet will be the difference in this fight in that they’ll allow him to remain effective in space where he will be able to slice and dice the incoming Chinese athlete with every form of strike/kick while at the same time using said footwork to evade the power and effect of Yadong’s striking.

O’Malley opened -300 for this fight before dropping to -190. He is currently priced -200 to Yadong’s +170. Total in this three round fight is lined 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Props for this fight are available currently. O’Malley decision is priced -110 but rather than get too cute coming out of the 2026 gate, I’ll simply use

O’Malley -200

(Leg 1, 2 fighter parlay)

In my judgement that puts me with an interest in the fighter the organization wants to move forward into a championship bout.

Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170 Flyweight (125lbs.)

This is a fight between a tall, rangy world class striker in Johnson who is madly active fighting fellow flyweights and a short relatively inactive grappler/wrestler in Alex Perez.

Perez’ inactivity, five fights since 2020 should concern investors, especially understanding that in 2024 he went 1-2 against top fifteen competition then he took only one bout, a loss to Asu Almabaev in 2025.

Perez is willing and experienced but in this matchup he faces an athlete three inches taller who sports a five-inch reach advantage arms with a couple inches advantage legs.

Johnson’s high level of activity (he has had sixteen fights since 2020) his mettle, his striking acumen, and that fact that he arrives to this fight brimming with confidence all force me to regard him as a value despite being a -200 chalk.

Parlay: Johnson -200/O’Malley -200

1u returns 1.25u

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available to all across all podcast platforms. It’s also available GambLou.com

Get all of my final releases for this UFC 324 fight card there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Divisional Drubbings?

Yes NFL enthusiasts I believe this week we witness four games that will not fall withing a seven point difference. Here are my predictions for each game. As an FYI, My NFL clients are sitting on a 3 team 7 point teaser this week. Interested parties can access that release at VSiN.

Buffalo 22 vs. Denver 11

Seattle 28 vs. San Francisco 18

New England 23 vs. Houston 10

Los Angeles 28 vs. Chicago 19

Good Luck to all and check right back here early next week for my early Championship Round predictions!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Wildcard Weekend: Pick the Winner!

It is a timeless piece of wisdom from Gill Alexander—I’ve heard him drop this Wild Card nugget on his VSiN program, ‘A Numbers Game’ for years, and it’s backed by solid historical data.

The core idea is that Wild Card games tend to produce decisive outcomes: favorites either blow out opponents (covering comfortably) or underdogs pull off outright upsets, with very few “win but no cover” scenarios for the favorite.

Recent trends support it closely. In the last 74 Wild Card games (per VSiN data from early 2025), the outright winner covered the spread 86.3% of the time (63-10-1 ATS). “Win-no-covers” (favorite wins but fails to cover) are rare, happening only about 14% of the time—very close to Gill’s 12% figure from the pre-expansion era.

Even with the playoff format expanding to six games per round since 2020, the pattern of lopsided results has largely persisted, though underdogs have been strong ATS overall in recent postseasons.

You’re spot on about this year’s setup adding extra intrigue: opening lines show three home underdogs entering Wild Card weekend (as of January 5 lines).

My advice is to simply to focus on picking the winner of any particular contest and let the spread take care of itself 86–88% of the time it is sharp—especially in a round known for blowouts or chaos.

Good luck this weekend, Let’s cash some winners!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability, UFC

NFL Week 18: Hasten Slowly

NFL week 18 brings more unknown than Christmas day my friends.

We have four games where playoff spots are on the line and a couple others where a team may enhance their position.

For this reason I see myself trying to focus on Panthers and Bucs Saturday, Seahawks and 49ers Saturday night, Bronco and Bolts Sunday late game then the SNF tilt of Steelers hosting the Raven.

I try to invest in integrity games this time of year to prepare for playoff NFL as opposed to trying to figure out whether the Saints or the Dirty bird have more to play for which for both is nothing!

Here’s an early 3 team 10pt Teaser obtained at DraftKings -120:

Buc’s +7.5

Vikings +3.5

Bills +1.5

I have mucho on the Bills Under 10.5 season wins (lost), 11.5 season wins (in play to Jets) and 12.5 season wins (already a winner) so the attempt here is to minimize a touch of my Bill exposure. No doubt however I am a big Jets fan this week despite them having absolutely NO chance of winning.

Next week I’ll make an accounting of all GambLou.com releases across all sports for 2025.

*Photo is of the Westgate Superbook during Covid…. damn near the Twilight Zone!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape: Crown Royval

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape is the organization’s final event in 2026.

To date, Favorites in the UFC stand 320-153-17 or 67%. The last couple of years have seen favorites in the UFC exceed the typical 63% +/- rate of success. Are these higher favorite results the new normal or will we eventually witness some reversion from underdogs?

This week’s event will take place from the UFC APEX facility which utilizes the smaller 25’ octagon and a facility that houses so very few live attendees. There are twelve scheduled bouts five of which will take place at the higher weight limits (welterweight to heavyweight).

There are seven fights where age differences between fighters are five years and greater. We understand the great win advantage being six years younger (62%) provides youthful athletes.

This final fight card is populated with athlete’s arriving with diverse fighting styles yet many of the personalities comprising the event are less recognized names. No matter the fighter’s popularity, all are working diligently to catch lightning in a bottle based on the outcomes of these battles.

Manuel Kape -300 vs. Brandon Royval +255 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

We last watched Brandon Royval lose an ultra-close decision in a battle with now champion of the flyweight division Joshua Van this past June.

Royval, a black belt in BJJ trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s unusually tall, long for this division and his fight weaponry allows him to compete effectively anywhere a fight takes place.

7-4 in the UFC Royval, versed with muay Thai striking acumen has competed and defeated several elite flyweights and has lost only to Brandon Moreno a former champion, Van the current flyweight champion, and Alexandre Pantoja another former flyweight champion.

Royval, who sports a gangly, long physique is looking to bounce off that loss to Van and defeat Kape who arrives to this fight steeped with potential yet burdened by the inability to consistently make weight.

Angola’s Manuel Kape is in fact a freak athlete. He is extremely athletic, unusually deft, and adroit on his feet, his hands are lightning fast, and he delivers strikes with explosive power coupled with extreme precision.

Kape stands 7-3 in the UFC with losses to Matheus Nicolau, former champion Pantoja, and former UFC athlete Mohammad Mokaev a wrestling based fighter.

It’s my judgement that the class of this division is a focused, motivated Manuel Kape but any attempt to understand Kape’s mentality/drive/focus prior to any fight he undertakes seems folly for he is famous for toying with adversaries and losing focus in the heat of battle which manifests itself in dud performances like the loss he incurred to Nicolau or one sided decision victories.

In this fight Kape will own advantages in speed, quickness, footwork, striking accuracy, power, and youth but his adversary Royval will hold height, reach, and grappling advantages over the nimble knockout artist.

Trying to determine the motivation and preparedness of Manuel Kape is no easy task. One would imagine that he would show up to all fights prepared and ready to fire yet on occasion he plays with his food, remains less than active, seems distracted, and can be domineered by formidable wrestling-based athletes (see Mokaev).

Once the bell for this fight chimes, I look for Royval to try to engage Kape and bring him into Royval’s world which is on the ground for a roll. Clasping onto Kape will be Royval’s best ally as he must discourage any form of stand-up battle with the more powerful, faster, skilled striker.

Provided he can find himself in the clasp or clinch with Kape, Royval will then look to control Kape with his Jui-Jitsu and should he be able to ground Kape he will immediately hold advantage as he looks to take the Angolan’s back then choke him out.

Kape will need to find a way to cut the cage on Royval, a nimble yet awkward athlete himself then force him against the fence where he may unleash a barrage of knee’s, damaging fists, and elbows but Kape must remain diligent in not to allowing Royval to clasp onto him.

These two are both left-handed athletes which will add complexity and potentially awkwardness to this fight especially when it comes to the leg kicking aspect of this bout.

Each man has prepared for and competed in main events so the five-round nature of this fight plus the experience of each man sets this battle up to be a fairly one0sided affair should Kape come with urgency, focus and determination which fans cannot always count on.

At the end of the day, we know what we will get from Royval, but it is difficult to predict the mentality of this man Kape.

Should he come ready, willing, and able to fire he should easily dominate Royval and live up to the price he carries on this fight, however, should he be any form of distracted then Royval may have a tremendous opportunity to utilize his BJJ and make this a highly competitive fight despite the heavy price on Kape.

Again, should Kape come motivated and prepared to fire this is a one-sided result.

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Over -150

Melquizael Costa -110 vs. Morgan Charriere -110 Featherweight (145) barnburner

This fight card has several legitimate favorites in well place spots.

One fight that is priced as a coin flip is this highly competitive featherweight tilt.

Costa, a Brazilian enters this fray with a very well-rounded skill set. Fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil, Costa brings effective striking as evidenced by his +1.35 significant strike ratio per five minutes of fight time and solid grappling into this most competitive fight.

Costa who arrives off of four straight wins since a loss to current eighth ranked Stevie Garcia in 2023 has competed against fighters that are not quite top fifteen forces in the division but were worthy of delivering Costa into this most important bout.

French pugilist Morgan Charrier arrives to this confrontation as well rounded in fight weaponry as his opponent Costa however Charriere has been in the cage competing against a more formidable array of opponent.

3-2 in the UFC, Charriere has competed against a higher class of athlete than has Costa. In his two losses he has competed brilliantly and competitively against both Chepe Mariscal in a decision that went against Charriere but should not have, then Englishman Nathaniel Wood, a top fifteen featherweight in my judgement.

Costa stands a couple inches taller than Charriere as well he will sport a two-inch reach advantage which should present him some edge while this fight is on the feet. That said, Charrier’s footwork, his sold wrestling pedigree and his quickness, explosive striking and athleticism are what makes the difference between these two fighters.

This battle will be competitive anywhere it transitions; I look for Charriere who opened -155 in this matchup to hold advantages in level of competition faced, athleticism and dynamic fighting ability.

The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -210 which further highlights the competitive nature of this bout.

Charriere opened -150 in this battle. He has faced more dangerous competition than has Costa and arrives off the momentum of an impressive victory over Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr in Landwehr’s home state of Tennessee.

It’s my judgement that the opening number was a more accurate depiction of how this fight will transpire than current pricing and for that reason I’ll release

Morgan Charriere -110 1u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Beginning 2026 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available across all podcast platforms!

 

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 323 Dvalishvili vs. Yan: Rage against the Machine?

UFC 323, the organization’s last remaining PPV event drops this weekend.

The fourteen-fight slate is scheduled for early prelim action beginning at 3pm PT, prelims drop at 5pm PT and the main PPV portion of the fight card starts at 7pm PT.

There are only seven of twenty-eight athletes competing in this event from the US, so viewers will watch an international set off athletes arriving in Las Vegas to compete.

This year favorites are running a couple of points higher than the usual 63%, they stand 311-150-15 or 65.3%.

Last week we hit a nice parlay paying +2.05u bringing this year’s digital tally to 24-30 -3.72u.

Time to earn!

Merab Dvalishvili -410 vs. Petr Yan +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

Dvalishvili will face Yan in a rematch of a fight from 2023 where Merab dominated Yan in every way, shape, and form.

Dvalishvili’s wrestling is as good as any fighter in the organization as is his cardiovascular dominance. Merab has decent hands that he employs to change up the visual of his unrelenting forward wrestling take down pressure but make little mistake that Dvalishvili, appropriately nicknamed ‘the machine’ is as high an energy fighter as the organization has.

Dvalishvili’s dominance is founded on his ability to compete at 110% output for ten rounds let alone five.

After defeating Yan via one sided decision in 2023, Merab has gone on to dominate each of five world class bantamweight mixed martial artists over the course of his last six bouts (he dominated the singularly dimensioned striker Sean O’Malley twice).

At this point in his evolution Merab needs to remain mentally sharp and motivated because his tireless output inside the cage during fights is unequaled. He batters foes emotionally with his cardio.

In Russian mixed martial artist Petr Yan we have what I regard as one of two legitimate threats to Merab’s title, the other being Umar Nurmagomedov who Merab defeated this past January.

Yan’s boxing/striking is as world class as is Merab’s chain effect wrestling. Yan’s a highly decorated mixed martial artist himself as he holds a Master of Sport in Boxing, a Master of Sport in MMA as well a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

In the first fight between these two Yan was effective striking but his inability to fend off the unrelenting pressure of Merab’s wrestling made the basic difference in the fight.

Yan has since come to voice that he was affected with injury in that first bout but based on his history and overall lack of striking power in that fight and others since, I don’t believe Yan has improved his already world class fighting acumen enough to be able to change what occurred between he and ‘the machine’ in their first bout.

We will see a more concerted effort from Yan to maintain distance and fortify his striking space by utilizing movement for Yan’s only chance to upset the current champion is to outpoint him with his deft stand-up ability.

Should this fight hit the floor however, Dvalishvili, who will be the one flooring Yan, will control the slightly larger, younger Yan and it is on the canvas where Merab’s strength, cardio and heavy top force will allow him to not only maintain control over the third ranked athlete in the division, but reign damage upon him as well.

This fight opened Dvalishvili -260 and his price is now -470.

I would normally try to find any way to regard Yan as able to defeat a champion in Dvalishvili who defends his title for the fourth time this year and second time in two months, but the only ‘legitimate’ threat to Merab in my judgement is the rematch with Umar Nurmagomedov which will occur in 2026 be it Merab or Yan.

In fact, at DraftKings Umar Nurmagomedov to be UFC Bantamweight Champion 12-31-26 is +300.

When Merab defeated Umar this past January, Umar had opened -170 then closed -250ish. When they fight again, and it will be in 2026, that fight will be lined with Merab as favorite, but it will be in the -140 to -170 range. Capturing Umar now will provide great price advantage as we near that rematch.

Total in the Dvalishvili/Yan fight is 4.5Rds Over -445.

Future Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov +300 to be UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026 (available DraftKings).

I’ll be right here next year to follow up on that wager!

Alexandre Pantoja -235 vs. Joshua Van +200 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Current flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title.

Since 2020, the relatively undersized Pantoja has ‘cleaned out’ all viable threats to his title, albeit in a division that has little viewer or popular appeal.

Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring an abundance skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite weaponry upon every type of adversary his size and larger.

Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high energy competition he faces daily at ATT as opposed to the general lack of skilled fighters today competing at 125lbs.

Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler who holds striking aptitude, deft defensive skills and experience that has been developed against the ultimate threats in the division over the course of a decade plus.

Pantoja is lightning quick, strong, and athletic for his age but of all his physical attributes the most apparent trait in his fights is not his physicality, rather it is his mentality.

Pantoja’s mental toughness, his fight IQ, and his zeal to hold this title after struggling for so many years to capture it comprise the fabric of the Pantoja fight arsenal. Never mind his world class BJJ, wrestling and Muay Thai skill.

Pantoja’s opponent for this fight is a talented ascending mixed martial artist, Joshua Van.

Van, a Burmese athlete is a natural fighter. He’s not decorated with any Judo, BJJ or wrestling accolades/belts but what he has shown the ability to do is to show up, throw hands and try to earn victory.

So far this wild ascent from aggressive Van assaults has worked for Van is now thirty months into the UFC and stands 7-1, his sole loss a KO at the hands of Charles Johnson.

Van’s stepping up in class of opponent (understatement) and while he’ll be the younger man at twenty-four he’ll also be in the cage against a savvy, decorated professional who has competed against the elite of this division for over a decade.

Once this fight begins it will be interesting to determine how long it takes Pantoja to ground Van then force the assenting fighter into the very deep waters he has never been taken to.

I find it unlikely that Pantoja will try to play with his food and give the young lion a chance for a ‘Sunday shot,’ rather this will be an all business Pantoja awarding a young talented but not yet ready for the title Josh Van his PhD. In MMA.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -240

Grant Dawson -200 vs. Manuel Torres +175 Lightweight (155lbs.)

We must include the finest example of a ‘styles make fights’ battle as we can imagine.

In one corner we have Mexico’s Manuel Torres, a Muay Thai based killer from Chihuahua, Mexico who is an aggressive, forward pressing striker intent on concussing opponents fearless enough to confront him in a cage.

4-1 in the UFC Torres just decimated journeyman Drew Dober after being schooled at Noche 2024 by Ignacio Bahamondes.

Power striking from distance, apt infighting using elbows, knees, and shoulders or on the ground in top position, Torres has one single point of focus, mar the opponent then take them out.

In Grant Dawson we have the complete counterbalance to the aggressive striking ability of Torres.

Dawson’s a world class wrestling savant. He’s been developing in mixed martial arts repertoire, namely his striking at Florida’s ATT a gym that trains a plethora of world class mixed martial artists. Daily, Dawson is able to sharpen his steel against the many gifted athletes there.

Once this fight starts it will be Torres who must manage to keep this fight at distance and on the feet so he can try to touch the wrestler upon advancement. It will be Dawson’s task to ensure that sometime before fifteen minutes of fight time elapses, that he is able to take Torres to the turf then smother him with ground and pound from top position.

At the end of the day fans want to see finishes and either way in this fight one cat’s going to finish the other evidenced by this total of 1.5 Under -140.

Dvalishvili -410/Dawson-200

2u returns 1.73u

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Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities

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