Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC LV113 Bautista vs. Oliveira: Veni, Vidi, Vinicius

After two numbered events, the UFC returns to its ‘Meta APEX’ facility for this week’s UFC Fight Night Bautista vs. Oliveira.

This event is currently scheduled for thirteen fights to be held in the smaller twenty-five-foot octagon and in front of several more people than the APEX previously held as they have expanded the facility and its seating.

There are but four fighters from the states populating this highly international fight card as well there are five bouts where the combatants will be welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Large men in the less spacious cage employed by the APEX may provide viewers with an abundance of violent action.

Mario Bautista -190 vs. Vinicius Oliveira +165 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Eleventh ranked bantamweight Oliveira, ‘Lok Dog’ as he is called is a highly athletic thirty-year-old Brazilian mixed martial artist. His fight base is comprised of BJJ with a highly effective power striking/kicking arsenal as supplement.

Oliveira’s speed, quickness, and lightning-fast striking acumen are foundational to his success as he has realized a 4-0 start to his UFC career. While able to grapple, Oliveira’s forte’ is the finish, as he’s KO’d sixteen of his twenty-three professional opponents with a couple of submission wins sprinkled in.

In each UFC bout thus far in his career, Oliveira has stepped up against ascending competition. He has realized a perfect 4-0 result with one finish, his debut, then three decision victories which highlights the fact that the level of competition he is facing is becoming sterner.

Oliveira’s opponent for this fight is the number eight ranked fighter in the division, Mario Bautista. We last saw Bautista clash with current number two ranked Bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov in a fight that was highly competitive and one where Bautista forced the action and made Nurmagomedov fight for a full fifteen minutes. Most adversaries run from Nurmagomedov, Bautista took the fight right to him!

Bautista is the quiet man. He allows his fighting in the cage to do his talking for him. Coming into this fight off a loss should also provide Bautista with certain focus and fortitude as he had rattled off eight straight UFC wins against talented competition prior to the Nurmagomedov setback.

Bautista sports a solid wrestling base complimented with a black belt in BJJ under head coach John Crouch and highly advanced boxing acumen.  While maybe not as slick, quick, dynamic, or flashy as his opponent, Bautista has been in the cage with well more skilled, decorated, and dangerous adversaries than Oliveira.

Once this fight begins, fans will watch Oliveira attempt to utilize athleticism, and his unorthodox striking style to try to unleash looping, wide power shots onto Bautista. Oliveira will use speed early in his striking combinations, but he always finishes his flurries with profusely powerful hooks and crosses. This makes ‘Lok Dog’ a most challenging adversary.

For Bautista, he will be as the tortoise chasing the hare in that he will be the more stoic, determined, forward pressing, cage cutting athlete who will act to maneuver Oliveira into and against the fence, eliminate his space then open up by reigning damage over the less experienced yet powerful Brazilian.

Where Oliveria needs space, Bautista will strive to negate such space.

It’s highly probable that Bautista will utilize his developed wrestling acumen to clasp onto then grind on Oliveira, haul him to the mat then force him to expend his energy defending the wrestling as opposed to shucking and jiving in space while on his feet.

Bautista’s employment of the wrestling will serve two purposes, first, it will force the power striker to expend energy trying to escape from the takedowns then, second that wrestling pressure will fatigue the Brazilian leaving him less able to deal with the forceful forward pressure and diverse fight arsenal of Bautista.

This will be a terrific clash of styles but one where Bautista’s level of competition faced, his depth of experience and well-rounded fight acumen should prove to be too much for ‘Lok Dog’ for the longer this fight goes, the more dominant Bautista, and his unrelenting forward stalking pressure will become.

It’s my judgement that Bautista is simply too big a step up in class for the Brazilian at this stage of his career.

Bautista -190

Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -135

Strong lean under

Jailton Almeida -145 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +125 Heavyweight (265lbs.)

Russian athlete Rizvan Kuniev takes this, his sophomore bout in the UFC against the sixth ranked athlete in the division!

Kuniev is a finisher. He has earned eight of his twelve professional victories via finish, six via KO. Kuniev, who tips the scales at the 266-pound maximum weight is athletic for a large man, has profuse power in his hands and of course being Dagestani has a deep understanding of the wrestling game.

This is Kuniev’s second UFC bout. Based solely on his razor close split decision loss in his first UFC fight to current number four ranked Curtis Blaydes (a fight that could have been called either way) he seems well prepared to crash through the lower levels of modest UFC heavyweight talent and find himself in the top ten of the rankings with a victory in this fight.

The immense challenge for Kuniev is that he now goes from competing against a world class American wrestler in Blaydes to a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu specialist and one who carries freakish athleticism backed by profuse power in every limb in Almeida.

Brazil’s Jailton Almeida is the division’s number six ranked athlete. Where Kuniev flirts with the heavy weight limit of 265 lbs., Almeida, who is a sculpted, muscular man arrives to battle somewhat undersized hitting the cage around 240lbs.

Almeida is a black belt in BJJ as well he has had to compete in the heavyweight division of the UFC because no light heavyweight athletes (Almeida’s original weight class) would agree to enter the cage with him!  So, in order to get fights, Almeida jumped to heavyweight where he has accrued a 5-2 record against top ranked heavyweight talent.

Almeida’s heavy weight losses were at the hands of fourth ranked Blaydes then, in his last bout he lost a razor close decision to number two ranked Alexander Volkov. There is no shame in either of those losses.

Almeida’s athleticism, pure natural strength, cage savvy, and diverse fighting acumen allows him to compete effectively with the elite of the heavyweight division.

This dynamic clash of fighting styles and physical body types will be fascinating to watch for the adroit Almeida appears to be chiseled out of granite where Kuniev appears lumpy and rotund.

Almeida is being tested with this battle against Kuniev, and the result will clarify for the UFC if Jailton is to remain a top six athlete in the division. For Kuniev, a victory against the highly dangerous and decorated Almeida means instant inclusion into the division’s top ten.

Precision against Power, might against slight may best describe how I handicap this fight and it is the speed, experience and level of competition that direct me to the Almeida side not to mention Almeida’s finishing ability for he has finished twenty of twenty-one professional foes.

Almeida opened -550 for this fight, a ridiculous number, he stands currently -145. I call that a bargain.

Almeida -145

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Strong lean over.

Consider Almeida via decision also.

Michał Oleksiejczuk -360 vs. Marc-Andre Barriault +295 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Michal O is a polished Polish striker who is basically inept in grappling/wrestling challenges. However, presented with any adversary that will accommodate him in a stand-up, striking duel, Michal O often shines.

Oleksiejczuk competed originally as an undersized light heavyweight until transitioning into the middleweight division where he has shown great aptitude…. against striking based fighters.

After dropping three bouts in 2024, Michal O earned first round finishes over two journeyman athletes last year, so he arrives to this confrontation brimming with confidence and advantages in power, footwork, and fight IQ.

In Canada’s Marc-Andre Barriault we have a rank-and-file UFC athlete who is primarily a kickboxer, so Barriault arrives to the cage Saturday prepared to compete in a firefight striking match.

Barriault has eleven of seventeen wins which have come via the knockout.

So for this fight the stage is set, two determined, diligent striking based fighters are going to introduce themselves in the middle of the octagon and simply throw down until one man is left quivering on the canvas.

I expect Michal O to finish Barriault sometime in the first or second round of this battle as Barriault’s lack of speed and defensive strike evasion will be the determining factors in this bout.

Michal O via finish is the lean here however those prices are not yet released.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -160

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning across all podcast platforms. Catch it also at GambLou.com.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

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It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 325 Volkanovski vs. Lopes: Cowboy Ciao?

Sydney, Australia is the host city for this week’s UFC 325 a fight card populated with ten legitimate UFC matchups and four ‘Road to the UFC’ fights.

Sydney will utilize the larger thirty-foot octagon, and these battles will be held in front of an always raucous Aussie crowd.

Start time in the USA is 2PM PST for early prelims, 4PM PST for Preliminary fights then 6PM PST for the main card which will be the norm for these Paramount events,

As an aside, this column handicaps UFC fights only so this week we have ten bouts populated with an international set of combatants. Nine Aussie athletes (and Fiziev from Phuket, Thailand) will benefit from the lack of travel while fighters from the US, Mexico Brazil and Wales will need to commute into Australia for their confrontations all against local Aussie fighting talent.

Travel to any foreign fight slate is an important factor especially regarding fighter weigh-ins as plane rides bloat passengers. Another factor is WHEN athletes arrive to any foreign location for altitude and time differences are real factors in fights and must be addressed by athletes and handicappers alike.

Handicapping this or any foreign event means understanding that often local/regional athletes can be paired in somewhat favorable matchups to both encourage the crowd to be hysterical as well and more importantly to spread the UFC’s brand in that geographical area.

In other words, there can be great advantage being a local/regional athlete when the UFC travels abroad,

Last week favorites went 8-3 in the UFC after realizing a 330-154-18 (65.7%) result in 2025.

Alexander Volkanovski -160 vs. Diego Lopes +145 Featherweight (145lbs.) Title

This is an immediate rematch of a championship battle that transpired last April in Miami where Volkanovski retained his featherweight title via a unanimous decision.

Current number two ranked Diego Lopes debuted in the UFC in May of 2023 and took current UFC featherweight Mosvar Evloev, currently the division’s number one ranked fighter to a razor tight split decision loss …on a five-day notice!

Since that decision loss, Lopes, who has leapfrogged over Evloev for this SECOND title opportunity has dominated five highly decorated featherweight adversaries leading into that championship opportunity last April against Vokanovski where he was exposed on several levels.

In that bout Volkanovski, then thirty-six displayed keen footwork, world class wrestling and a depth of fight experience in remaining one step ahead of thirty-year-old Lopes on his way to a definitive unanimous decision win.

Lopes, a BJJ blackbelt training in Mexico will still hold that five-year youth advantage coming into this return fight, he remains six inches the taller fighter and he’ll possess an inch of reach advantage over the champion but I question what he has accomplished physically in the last calendar year to close the skill gap between he and Volkanovski.

In fact he was displaying similar difficulty keeping up with his last opponent Brazilian Jean Silva before Silva ran into a spinning elbow that ended the fight.

Lopes has substantial power and while he is tough, durable and steps into this bout after that stunning knockout victory over Silva, my judgement is that what he needed to refine and improve the most, namely his footwork and quickness in order to compete with the current champion have not been addressed appropriately from last year to this.

Volkanovski has not fought since these two last tangled as well he competes in his home country Australia as opposed to the travel he incurred for their last fight in the Latino mecca that is Miami, Fl.

Volkanovski’s intelligence, his cardio, the completeness of his mixed martial arts weaponry and his deft strike defense together with his nimble footwork and depth of five round championship experience still provide him advantage over anyone in the division let alone a young but hungry warrior he beat soundly less than one year ago.

Volkanovski opened -130/-135 for the first bout between these two and closed at -155/-160.

For this championship bout Volkanovski opened -150/-155 where this line sits currently.

Total in this fight: sits 3.5Rds -130 at some shops and 4.5 Rds. -110 at others.

When I see these early differences in totals, the end result almost always ends up being a fight lined at 4.5 rounds.  There is advantage to be had if one considers attacking that 3.5 Rds. Over -130 (DK).

Mauricio Ruffy -120 vs. Raphael Fiziev +100

Ruffy, the organizations fourteenth ranked lightweight arrives to Australia prepared to rectify the beating he incurred at the hands of Benoit Saint-Denis last September. Prior to that fight Ruffy, a Fighting Nerd from Brazil who is a long, lean striking machine displayed tremendous aptitude, speed, and refined precision in decimating several worthy adversaries.

Not decorated with any awarded belts, Ruffy does display lighting fast Capoeira tendencies which include spinning heel kicks, flying knees and an overall aggressive display of striking aggression.

What exposed the aggressive flamboyant striker in that last fight was his complete inability to grapple, wrestle or defend the takedown, a weakness that will soon need to be addressed ..but not for this bout.

For this fight Ruffy draws a great dance partner in Rafael Fiziev who is the striking coach at Phuket, Thailand’s Tiger Muay Thai, a gym that is world renown.

Fiziev too packs great power in his diversity of strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees. What makes this fight so fascinating is that neither of these cats can even spell wrestling. Spectator’s watching this artillery launch will witness a short, compact, explosive Kyrgyzstani in Fiziev who holds a blue belt in BJJ compete against a man similarly equipped in UFC weaponry, however one who will stand thee inches taller, will hold a three-and-a-half-inch reach advantage, and will be three years the younger combatant.

Once this fight begins my best advice is to not blink, for Ruffy will strive to maintain distance and bludgeon the incoming Fiziev with numbing strikes which will emanate from every angle, and limb.

Fiziev for his part has matrix-like defense and it will be his chore to navigate his way inside on Ruffy which will mute Ruffy’s length/effectiveness and simultaneously allow Fiziev to unleash his own artistic yet devastating array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks onto the Brazilian athlete.

The clash of body types and the relative similarities in how each of these dominators wants to win should be epic watching.

In the end, it is Fiziev, 7-4 in the UFC, who has been in with the more qualified and capable set of opponents, it’s Fiziev who has the benefit of little travel as well he’ll have the crowd on his side.

Ruffy, 3-1 in the UFC will need to navigate that trip from Brazil, make weight then fight the regional athlete in Fiziev in Fiziev’s hemisphere. But with that said, youth, speed, flash, and dynamic may well rest on the Ruffy side.

This bout opened a dead pick-em (-110 each man) and current fight lines can be found from Ruffy -120 to Fiziev -115.

Shop wisely my friends!

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Strong lean over

Quillan Salkilld -1000 vs. Jaime Mullarkey +700 Lightweight (155lbs)

It’s not often we write up a fight with such a cavernous spread difference between combatants, but this fight is going to be the fight that ignites the crowd for this event.

Salkilld is a dead finisher having earned KO’s or submissions in seven of his eleven professional bouts.

He was originally matched up with a Chinese mixed martial artist that was going to accommodate both he and the crowd in China’s RongZhu, a Sanda kickboxing based fighter who is aggressive and powerful.

Rong Zhu was forced to pull out of the fight.

Salkilld pleaded with the UFC to keep him on the card because as one may expect, being an Aussie and competing in front of one’s home compatriots is an honor and Salkilld wanted to remain on the event desperately.

The UFC with it’s deft ability to always keep fight cards populated, found fellow Australian fighter Jamie Mullarkey to jump into this event on but a couple of weeks of notice.

While Salkilld is a finishing machine, Mullarkey unfortunately is a man who gets finished.

Mullarkey, an uber aggressive power striker has twelve fights of experience in the UFC realizing a 6-6 record however, he’s been brutally finished in four of his last eight bouts and the few victories he’s enjoyed were to athletes most of whom no longer compete in the organization.

Props for this fight are not available yet, but this total is listed 1.5 Rds. -165 Under.

It is safe to advise Salkilld via finish in this fight and further even look to Salkilld via KO/TKO/DQ in order to attempt to pry a price out of a fight where the result is almost certain.

Jacob Malkoun -220 vs. Torrez Finney +190 Middleweight (185lbs.)

This is the dinosaur fight.

Not that these guys are old, but each is a wrestling based fighter and in this new Paramount age of violence, finishes and frenzy fifteen minutes of two men rolling on the canvas is not only distasteful to the UFC but the crowd as well. Too bad.

None the less these two will face off in what I handicap to be the wrong man may be favored fight.

Malkoun, 4-3 in the UFC has had an inconsistent UFC career which may be the result of grotesque inactivity.

After three bouts in 2022, Malkoun fought once in 2023 and once in March of 2024, so he’s been on the shelf and in the gym since then.

Evolution in the fight game takes place in the gym yes, but also in the octagon under the bright lights.

The inactivity of Malkoun is of great concern here despite the fact that he’s primarily a wrestler with some degree of danger in his hands.

In Torrez Finney we get a sawed-off American wrestling talent who is as stout as he is tall.

Finney is mad athletic for his build and has had a deep history in competitive wrestling, but his strikes are telegraphed, wide and easy to evade.

Once this fight begins I believe it will be difficult for Malkoun to try to fend off the unrelenting forward pressing wrester that is Finney.

Finney wants to win fights at this early stage of his career, so he will simply sell out in the wrestling then hope to reign damage on the Aussie from the dominant top position.

While Malkoun should hold a striking advantage, it may be difficult for him to create enough space to breath let alone throw a punch.

The difference in wrestling prowess is too wide for the Australian Malkoun to overcome as I handicap this bout.

Finney +190 (circa)

The lines to this fight are all over the board so shop accordingly to capture the best price on Finney available.

Total in this fight 2.5Rds. Over -200

Strong lean over

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all Podcast platforms, it’s also available at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 324 Gaethje vs. Pimlett: ‘Suga’ Daddy

After a welcome hiatus, the UFC returns this weekend to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for a fight production to be aired on Paramount called UFC 324. This event will feature the larger thirty-foot octagon and a packed house of fight fanatics.

Welcome news for fight enthusiasts is that with a subscription to Paramount, all fights this year are free as the era of pay-per-view events ends.

There are thirteen scheduled bouts for this card, five of which will be held at the Welterweight division (170lbs.) and above. The larger the combatants the greater chance for finishes.

There are six bouts on this card where a youth advantage of six years or greater exists between opponents. Fighters six years younger than their opponents realize a 62%-win rate. Fighters who are more than six years younger than their opponents realize even greater advantages so it’s critical to understand not only the physical and mental capacities of each combatant but their age and who they have competed against in recent fights as well.

While this is an international set of fighters converging in Las Vegas, only two fights feature someone from out of the country facing a domestic US athlete, so home octagon advantage exists in only two fights one being the main event.

Now let’s break down a couple of fascinating fight matchups.

Paddy Pimlett -230 vs. Justin Gaethje +195 Lightweight (155lbs.) Interim Title

English mixed martial artist Paddy Pimlett is from Liverpool, England and a proud ‘scouser’ he is.

Pimlett began his MMA journey at the age of fifteen and has developed into a wildly popular/magnetic UFC athlete.

Paddy ‘the baddy’ as he is called is a second-degree black belt in BJJ. He has shown the ability to fluster opponents in the octagon then force them into making mistakes where Pimlett, now twenty-nine is able to engulf them in his grappling.

From engagement Pimlett has a deft ability to find the opponent’s back or alternatively grab their neck, an arm or leg and submit them with brilliant efficiency.

Despite Pimlett being an inch shorter than Gaethje, his opponent this weekend, he will enter the cage well over 170lbs. He is athletic, strong, and able to utilize his size in grappling transitions that few of his past opponents have been able to stop.

Pimlett is 7-0 in his UFC competition with a razor close win over one Jarod Gordon that was graded a win but in actuality may have been one of the worse decisions in MMA.

Nonetheless, Paddy’s ‘Scouser’ submission ability and his tremendous popularity put him right behind Suga’ Sean O’Malley as the ‘lightning in a bottle’ type of fighters with the far-reaching draw and profuse popularity the UFC so yearns to promote and earn from.

Former ‘BMF’ Champion as well as former lightweight interim champion Justin Gaethje is Pimlett’s adversary this week.

Gaethje is a former D1 college wrestler who possesses fight finishing striking power that can come from any kick, elbow, fist or flying knee and he throws them all with ill intent.

Gaethje utilizes numbing low leg/calf kicks to maim opponents then once compromised, he unleashes devastating power strikes that often leave opponents incapacitated.

Gaethje is as forward pressing and aggressive a fighter as can be found on the whole of the UFC roster and at thirty-seven years old he has made it clear that with a victory here he transitions into a championship fight against currently shelved lightweight title holder Ilya Topuria.

What separates Gaethje from Pimlett, is that Gaethje has competed against the elite and most dominant athletes in the division for several years now.  Pimlett has not and many feel he is in this spot simply because of his popularity and his ability to draw people to fights.

Since 2019 Gaethje has only had setbacks against elite athletes in the division such as Charles Oliveira, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway. Gaethje dominated top ten ranked fighters like Tiger Muay Thai’s striking coach Raphael Fiziev (twice) and former lightweight champion and future hall of famer, Dustin Poirier.

All of these former opponents have tested Gaethje’s mettle and have prepared him to realize great advantage in level of competition faced when he steps into this fight against Paddy Saturday night.

It’s Gaethje’s age and ability to fend off the Pimlett takedown attempts and unrelenting grappling advances that become the single focus of how this fight transpires in my judgement.

Once this bout starts, Gaethje, who rarely utilizes his wrestling skill, other than take down defense will look to keep this fight standing then counterattack with those lethal kicks to numb Paddy’s legs then mark him up with an array of knees, elbows, fists, and kicks to the dome.

Paddy for his part will need to navigate through the barrage of power shots and find a way to clasp onto Gaethje, press him against the fence and close distance which will set him up to try to grab ahold of anything, a leg, an arm or ride Gaethje’s back in order to mute that forceful striking and transition this fight into a grappling match where Pimlett should possess great advantage.

The clash of each combatants style, the difference in level of competition faced and the age difference in this fight are all foundational to its outcome.

At the end of the day the magnetism of the Englishman is everything the UFC is yearning for, despite his shallow fight resume while fighters like the thirty-seven-year-old Gaethje will be put up against the hungry young lions on the rise in order to ‘clean-out’ the organization of its aged, higher paid talent. After all, it is a business!

The UFC yearns to develop and highlight athletes that have dynamic magnetism/appeal beside being capable finishers as they realize what puts butts in the seats.

They see particularly great future value in the ‘Scouser’ from Liverpool and while they will claim they don’t prefer one fighter over any other but make little mistake that in this new Paramount era…. They actually will award fighters who draw crowds and finish opponents with great advantages in upcoming matchups.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Over -120

Lean Over

Sean O’Malley -200 vs. Song Yadong +170 Bantamweight (135lbs.) co main

Fifth ranked UFC bantamweight Song Yadong, began learning Sambo at the age of nine then transitioned into MMA just a few years after.

From the age of twenty-two on he’s trained at team Alpha Male in northern California under the tutelage of Uriah Faber and team.

Over the course of the last decade the groomers at Alpha Male have equipped the twenty-eight-year-old Yadong with effective wrestling, strong take down defense and tremendous cardio ability, all aspects of his fight game that needed improvement.

Yadong arrives at this fight understanding that his opponent, Sean O’Malley is primarily a striker and a highly precise one at that. Further, Yadong will be focused on negating the striking prowess of O’Malley and his long, sinewy frame. To do so Yadong will need to work his way ‘inside the pocket’ and utilize everything Alpha Male has instilled in him to keep this fight in close and dirty as opposed to out in space and distance where his opponent may maneuver freely.

This is a foundational fight for Yadong for should he be able to find O’Malley with a power shot or even be able to grind him against the fence from close quarters then wrestle him up to earn victory he propels himself into that third ranked position currently held by O’Malley.

Yadong’s adversary needs little introduction.

Former Bantamweight Champion ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley is a lightning rod of popularity among today’s young fight fans, and his immense popularity goes well beyond just the fight game.

Besides his electric persona O’Malley is a highly skilled, lightning quick, precision striker with power and pop at the end of his strikes/kicks and an underrated BJJ game that he has been cultivating for years.

O’Malley strengths are his agility, coordination, speed and precision striking ability but it is his wrestling, grappling and take down defense that O’Malley must be prepared to utilize in this battle against Yadong who is the stronger athlete and who understands that in space this is O’Malley’s fight so the elimination of distance will surely be the goal of Yadong.

O’Malley understands the importance of keeping this fight on the feet and at distance where he may utilize the advantages he sports such as deft movement, great footwork, the creation of striking and kicking angles and lastly his ability to evade strikes from adversaries. The thirty-foot cage also compliments the fighting style and athleticism O’Malley will utilize to keep his adversary at distance and the end of his precision strikes.

The uninformed will claim O’Malley is, not nor will he ever be an effective wrestler/grappler, which is simply not the case. While his wrestling pales in comparison to former champion Merab Dvalishvili it is developed enough to be able to thwart the efforts of Yadong in this matchup.

O’Malley’s arrives to this opportunity beaming with confidence. He understands what he is to the UFC as a title contender and that with his dynamic popularity and drawing power he is but one twin away (this one) from a title rematch with current champion Petr Yan whom O’Malley beat in a highly controversial split decision in October of 2022.

The evolution of the UFC and their new broadcast partner looking to harness fighters with immense popularity coupled with finishing power and drawing potential is upon us.

This co main event was specifically designed to provide one of the UFC’s greatest drawing personalities with an advantageous matchup opportunity in order to boomerang him into a bantamweight super fight with current champion Yan.

The only barricade in the design is Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong.

The foundation of this fight handicap revolves around the deft O’Malley footwork and his matrixlike strike evasion.

It’s my judgement that Yadong will struggle trying to catch up with O’Malley, especially in the spacious thirty-foot octagon. O’Malley’s feet will be the difference in this fight in that they’ll allow him to remain effective in space where he will be able to slice and dice the incoming Chinese athlete with every form of strike/kick while at the same time using said footwork to evade the power and effect of Yadong’s striking.

O’Malley opened -300 for this fight before dropping to -190. He is currently priced -200 to Yadong’s +170. Total in this three round fight is lined 2.5 Rds. Over -240

Props for this fight are available currently. O’Malley decision is priced -110 but rather than get too cute coming out of the 2026 gate, I’ll simply use

O’Malley -200

(Leg 1, 2 fighter parlay)

In my judgement that puts me with an interest in the fighter the organization wants to move forward into a championship bout.

Charles Johnson -200 vs. Alex Perez +170 Flyweight (125lbs.)

This is a fight between a tall, rangy world class striker in Johnson who is madly active fighting fellow flyweights and a short relatively inactive grappler/wrestler in Alex Perez.

Perez’ inactivity, five fights since 2020 should concern investors, especially understanding that in 2024 he went 1-2 against top fifteen competition then he took only one bout, a loss to Asu Almabaev in 2025.

Perez is willing and experienced but in this matchup he faces an athlete three inches taller who sports a five-inch reach advantage arms with a couple inches advantage legs.

Johnson’s high level of activity (he has had sixteen fights since 2020) his mettle, his striking acumen, and that fact that he arrives to this fight brimming with confidence all force me to regard him as a value despite being a -200 chalk.

Parlay: Johnson -200/O’Malley -200

1u returns 1.25u

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available to all across all podcast platforms. It’s also available GambLou.com

Get all of my final releases for this UFC 324 fight card there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Divisional Drubbings?

Yes NFL enthusiasts I believe this week we witness four games that will not fall withing a seven point difference. Here are my predictions for each game. As an FYI, My NFL clients are sitting on a 3 team 7 point teaser this week. Interested parties can access that release at VSiN.

Buffalo 22 vs. Denver 11

Seattle 28 vs. San Francisco 18

New England 23 vs. Houston 10

Los Angeles 28 vs. Chicago 19

Good Luck to all and check right back here early next week for my early Championship Round predictions!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Wildcard Weekend: Pick the Winner!

It is a timeless piece of wisdom from Gill Alexander—I’ve heard him drop this Wild Card nugget on his VSiN program, ‘A Numbers Game’ for years, and it’s backed by solid historical data.

The core idea is that Wild Card games tend to produce decisive outcomes: favorites either blow out opponents (covering comfortably) or underdogs pull off outright upsets, with very few “win but no cover” scenarios for the favorite.

Recent trends support it closely. In the last 74 Wild Card games (per VSiN data from early 2025), the outright winner covered the spread 86.3% of the time (63-10-1 ATS). “Win-no-covers” (favorite wins but fails to cover) are rare, happening only about 14% of the time—very close to Gill’s 12% figure from the pre-expansion era.

Even with the playoff format expanding to six games per round since 2020, the pattern of lopsided results has largely persisted, though underdogs have been strong ATS overall in recent postseasons.

You’re spot on about this year’s setup adding extra intrigue: opening lines show three home underdogs entering Wild Card weekend (as of January 5 lines).

My advice is to simply to focus on picking the winner of any particular contest and let the spread take care of itself 86–88% of the time it is sharp—especially in a round known for blowouts or chaos.

Good luck this weekend, Let’s cash some winners!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability, UFC

NFL Week 18: Hasten Slowly

NFL week 18 brings more unknown than Christmas day my friends.

We have four games where playoff spots are on the line and a couple others where a team may enhance their position.

For this reason I see myself trying to focus on Panthers and Bucs Saturday, Seahawks and 49ers Saturday night, Bronco and Bolts Sunday late game then the SNF tilt of Steelers hosting the Raven.

I try to invest in integrity games this time of year to prepare for playoff NFL as opposed to trying to figure out whether the Saints or the Dirty bird have more to play for which for both is nothing!

Here’s an early 3 team 10pt Teaser obtained at DraftKings -120:

Buc’s +7.5

Vikings +3.5

Bills +1.5

I have mucho on the Bills Under 10.5 season wins (lost), 11.5 season wins (in play to Jets) and 12.5 season wins (already a winner) so the attempt here is to minimize a touch of my Bill exposure. No doubt however I am a big Jets fan this week despite them having absolutely NO chance of winning.

Next week I’ll make an accounting of all GambLou.com releases across all sports for 2025.

*Photo is of the Westgate Superbook during Covid…. damn near the Twilight Zone!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape: Crown Royval

UFC Fight Night Royval vs. Kape is the organization’s final event in 2026.

To date, Favorites in the UFC stand 320-153-17 or 67%. The last couple of years have seen favorites in the UFC exceed the typical 63% +/- rate of success. Are these higher favorite results the new normal or will we eventually witness some reversion from underdogs?

This week’s event will take place from the UFC APEX facility which utilizes the smaller 25’ octagon and a facility that houses so very few live attendees. There are twelve scheduled bouts five of which will take place at the higher weight limits (welterweight to heavyweight).

There are seven fights where age differences between fighters are five years and greater. We understand the great win advantage being six years younger (62%) provides youthful athletes.

This final fight card is populated with athlete’s arriving with diverse fighting styles yet many of the personalities comprising the event are less recognized names. No matter the fighter’s popularity, all are working diligently to catch lightning in a bottle based on the outcomes of these battles.

Manuel Kape -300 vs. Brandon Royval +255 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

We last watched Brandon Royval lose an ultra-close decision in a battle with now champion of the flyweight division Joshua Van this past June.

Royval, a black belt in BJJ trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s unusually tall, long for this division and his fight weaponry allows him to compete effectively anywhere a fight takes place.

7-4 in the UFC Royval, versed with muay Thai striking acumen has competed and defeated several elite flyweights and has lost only to Brandon Moreno a former champion, Van the current flyweight champion, and Alexandre Pantoja another former flyweight champion.

Royval, who sports a gangly, long physique is looking to bounce off that loss to Van and defeat Kape who arrives to this fight steeped with potential yet burdened by the inability to consistently make weight.

Angola’s Manuel Kape is in fact a freak athlete. He is extremely athletic, unusually deft, and adroit on his feet, his hands are lightning fast, and he delivers strikes with explosive power coupled with extreme precision.

Kape stands 7-3 in the UFC with losses to Matheus Nicolau, former champion Pantoja, and former UFC athlete Mohammad Mokaev a wrestling based fighter.

It’s my judgement that the class of this division is a focused, motivated Manuel Kape but any attempt to understand Kape’s mentality/drive/focus prior to any fight he undertakes seems folly for he is famous for toying with adversaries and losing focus in the heat of battle which manifests itself in dud performances like the loss he incurred to Nicolau or one sided decision victories.

In this fight Kape will own advantages in speed, quickness, footwork, striking accuracy, power, and youth but his adversary Royval will hold height, reach, and grappling advantages over the nimble knockout artist.

Trying to determine the motivation and preparedness of Manuel Kape is no easy task. One would imagine that he would show up to all fights prepared and ready to fire yet on occasion he plays with his food, remains less than active, seems distracted, and can be domineered by formidable wrestling-based athletes (see Mokaev).

Once the bell for this fight chimes, I look for Royval to try to engage Kape and bring him into Royval’s world which is on the ground for a roll. Clasping onto Kape will be Royval’s best ally as he must discourage any form of stand-up battle with the more powerful, faster, skilled striker.

Provided he can find himself in the clasp or clinch with Kape, Royval will then look to control Kape with his Jui-Jitsu and should he be able to ground Kape he will immediately hold advantage as he looks to take the Angolan’s back then choke him out.

Kape will need to find a way to cut the cage on Royval, a nimble yet awkward athlete himself then force him against the fence where he may unleash a barrage of knee’s, damaging fists, and elbows but Kape must remain diligent in not to allowing Royval to clasp onto him.

These two are both left-handed athletes which will add complexity and potentially awkwardness to this fight especially when it comes to the leg kicking aspect of this bout.

Each man has prepared for and competed in main events so the five-round nature of this fight plus the experience of each man sets this battle up to be a fairly one0sided affair should Kape come with urgency, focus and determination which fans cannot always count on.

At the end of the day, we know what we will get from Royval, but it is difficult to predict the mentality of this man Kape.

Should he come ready, willing, and able to fire he should easily dominate Royval and live up to the price he carries on this fight, however, should he be any form of distracted then Royval may have a tremendous opportunity to utilize his BJJ and make this a highly competitive fight despite the heavy price on Kape.

Again, should Kape come motivated and prepared to fire this is a one-sided result.

Total in this fight 3.5Rds. Over -150

Melquizael Costa -110 vs. Morgan Charriere -110 Featherweight (145) barnburner

This fight card has several legitimate favorites in well place spots.

One fight that is priced as a coin flip is this highly competitive featherweight tilt.

Costa, a Brazilian enters this fray with a very well-rounded skill set. Fighting out of Chute Boxe in Brazil, Costa brings effective striking as evidenced by his +1.35 significant strike ratio per five minutes of fight time and solid grappling into this most competitive fight.

Costa who arrives off of four straight wins since a loss to current eighth ranked Stevie Garcia in 2023 has competed against fighters that are not quite top fifteen forces in the division but were worthy of delivering Costa into this most important bout.

French pugilist Morgan Charrier arrives to this confrontation as well rounded in fight weaponry as his opponent Costa however Charriere has been in the cage competing against a more formidable array of opponent.

3-2 in the UFC, Charriere has competed against a higher class of athlete than has Costa. In his two losses he has competed brilliantly and competitively against both Chepe Mariscal in a decision that went against Charriere but should not have, then Englishman Nathaniel Wood, a top fifteen featherweight in my judgement.

Costa stands a couple inches taller than Charriere as well he will sport a two-inch reach advantage which should present him some edge while this fight is on the feet. That said, Charrier’s footwork, his sold wrestling pedigree and his quickness, explosive striking and athleticism are what makes the difference between these two fighters.

This battle will be competitive anywhere it transitions; I look for Charriere who opened -155 in this matchup to hold advantages in level of competition faced, athleticism and dynamic fighting ability.

The total in this fight stands 2.5Rds Over -210 which further highlights the competitive nature of this bout.

Charriere opened -150 in this battle. He has faced more dangerous competition than has Costa and arrives off the momentum of an impressive victory over Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr in Landwehr’s home state of Tennessee.

It’s my judgement that the opening number was a more accurate depiction of how this fight will transpire than current pricing and for that reason I’ll release

Morgan Charriere -110 1u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Beginning 2026 the ‘Bout Business Podcast will be available across all podcast platforms!

 

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 323 Dvalishvili vs. Yan: Rage against the Machine?

UFC 323, the organization’s last remaining PPV event drops this weekend.

The fourteen-fight slate is scheduled for early prelim action beginning at 3pm PT, prelims drop at 5pm PT and the main PPV portion of the fight card starts at 7pm PT.

There are only seven of twenty-eight athletes competing in this event from the US, so viewers will watch an international set off athletes arriving in Las Vegas to compete.

This year favorites are running a couple of points higher than the usual 63%, they stand 311-150-15 or 65.3%.

Last week we hit a nice parlay paying +2.05u bringing this year’s digital tally to 24-30 -3.72u.

Time to earn!

Merab Dvalishvili -410 vs. Petr Yan +360 Bantamweight (135lbs.) title

Dvalishvili will face Yan in a rematch of a fight from 2023 where Merab dominated Yan in every way, shape, and form.

Dvalishvili’s wrestling is as good as any fighter in the organization as is his cardiovascular dominance. Merab has decent hands that he employs to change up the visual of his unrelenting forward wrestling take down pressure but make little mistake that Dvalishvili, appropriately nicknamed ‘the machine’ is as high an energy fighter as the organization has.

Dvalishvili’s dominance is founded on his ability to compete at 110% output for ten rounds let alone five.

After defeating Yan via one sided decision in 2023, Merab has gone on to dominate each of five world class bantamweight mixed martial artists over the course of his last six bouts (he dominated the singularly dimensioned striker Sean O’Malley twice).

At this point in his evolution Merab needs to remain mentally sharp and motivated because his tireless output inside the cage during fights is unequaled. He batters foes emotionally with his cardio.

In Russian mixed martial artist Petr Yan we have what I regard as one of two legitimate threats to Merab’s title, the other being Umar Nurmagomedov who Merab defeated this past January.

Yan’s boxing/striking is as world class as is Merab’s chain effect wrestling. Yan’s a highly decorated mixed martial artist himself as he holds a Master of Sport in Boxing, a Master of Sport in MMA as well a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

In the first fight between these two Yan was effective striking but his inability to fend off the unrelenting pressure of Merab’s wrestling made the basic difference in the fight.

Yan has since come to voice that he was affected with injury in that first bout but based on his history and overall lack of striking power in that fight and others since, I don’t believe Yan has improved his already world class fighting acumen enough to be able to change what occurred between he and ‘the machine’ in their first bout.

We will see a more concerted effort from Yan to maintain distance and fortify his striking space by utilizing movement for Yan’s only chance to upset the current champion is to outpoint him with his deft stand-up ability.

Should this fight hit the floor however, Dvalishvili, who will be the one flooring Yan, will control the slightly larger, younger Yan and it is on the canvas where Merab’s strength, cardio and heavy top force will allow him to not only maintain control over the third ranked athlete in the division, but reign damage upon him as well.

This fight opened Dvalishvili -260 and his price is now -470.

I would normally try to find any way to regard Yan as able to defeat a champion in Dvalishvili who defends his title for the fourth time this year and second time in two months, but the only ‘legitimate’ threat to Merab in my judgement is the rematch with Umar Nurmagomedov which will occur in 2026 be it Merab or Yan.

In fact, at DraftKings Umar Nurmagomedov to be UFC Bantamweight Champion 12-31-26 is +300.

When Merab defeated Umar this past January, Umar had opened -170 then closed -250ish. When they fight again, and it will be in 2026, that fight will be lined with Merab as favorite, but it will be in the -140 to -170 range. Capturing Umar now will provide great price advantage as we near that rematch.

Total in the Dvalishvili/Yan fight is 4.5Rds Over -445.

Future Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov +300 to be UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026 (available DraftKings).

I’ll be right here next year to follow up on that wager!

Alexandre Pantoja -235 vs. Joshua Van +200 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Current flyweight champion Pantoja is a Brazilian mixed martial artist who had to scratch, scrape, and claw his way to the flyweight title.

Since 2020, the relatively undersized Pantoja has ‘cleaned out’ all viable threats to his title, albeit in a division that has little viewer or popular appeal.

Pantoja trains at Florida’s ATT, a renown MMA gym featuring an abundance skilled fighters with diverse body types and fight weaponry. Competing at ATT allows Pantoja to refine his already elite weaponry upon every type of adversary his size and larger.

Pantoja’s dominance in the division reflects the high energy competition he faces daily at ATT as opposed to the general lack of skilled fighters today competing at 125lbs.

Pantoja, a black belt in BJJ is a brilliant grappler who holds striking aptitude, deft defensive skills and experience that has been developed against the ultimate threats in the division over the course of a decade plus.

Pantoja is lightning quick, strong, and athletic for his age but of all his physical attributes the most apparent trait in his fights is not his physicality, rather it is his mentality.

Pantoja’s mental toughness, his fight IQ, and his zeal to hold this title after struggling for so many years to capture it comprise the fabric of the Pantoja fight arsenal. Never mind his world class BJJ, wrestling and Muay Thai skill.

Pantoja’s opponent for this fight is a talented ascending mixed martial artist, Joshua Van.

Van, a Burmese athlete is a natural fighter. He’s not decorated with any Judo, BJJ or wrestling accolades/belts but what he has shown the ability to do is to show up, throw hands and try to earn victory.

So far this wild ascent from aggressive Van assaults has worked for Van is now thirty months into the UFC and stands 7-1, his sole loss a KO at the hands of Charles Johnson.

Van’s stepping up in class of opponent (understatement) and while he’ll be the younger man at twenty-four he’ll also be in the cage against a savvy, decorated professional who has competed against the elite of this division for over a decade.

Once this fight begins it will be interesting to determine how long it takes Pantoja to ground Van then force the assenting fighter into the very deep waters he has never been taken to.

I find it unlikely that Pantoja will try to play with his food and give the young lion a chance for a ‘Sunday shot,’ rather this will be an all business Pantoja awarding a young talented but not yet ready for the title Josh Van his PhD. In MMA.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -240

Grant Dawson -200 vs. Manuel Torres +175 Lightweight (155lbs.)

We must include the finest example of a ‘styles make fights’ battle as we can imagine.

In one corner we have Mexico’s Manuel Torres, a Muay Thai based killer from Chihuahua, Mexico who is an aggressive, forward pressing striker intent on concussing opponents fearless enough to confront him in a cage.

4-1 in the UFC Torres just decimated journeyman Drew Dober after being schooled at Noche 2024 by Ignacio Bahamondes.

Power striking from distance, apt infighting using elbows, knees, and shoulders or on the ground in top position, Torres has one single point of focus, mar the opponent then take them out.

In Grant Dawson we have the complete counterbalance to the aggressive striking ability of Torres.

Dawson’s a world class wrestling savant. He’s been developing in mixed martial arts repertoire, namely his striking at Florida’s ATT a gym that trains a plethora of world class mixed martial artists. Daily, Dawson is able to sharpen his steel against the many gifted athletes there.

Once this fight starts it will be Torres who must manage to keep this fight at distance and on the feet so he can try to touch the wrestler upon advancement. It will be Dawson’s task to ensure that sometime before fifteen minutes of fight time elapses, that he is able to take Torres to the turf then smother him with ground and pound from top position.

At the end of the day fans want to see finishes and either way in this fight one cat’s going to finish the other evidenced by this total of 1.5 Under -140.

Dvalishvili -410/Dawson-200

2u returns 1.73u

Friday Morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops GambLou.com. Gain all my final UFC releases there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the hostilities

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Investment Intel, Profitability

Plan your work, then work your plan

Happy Thanksgiving to all

Let’s ensure that this Thanksgiving we gamble like professionals as opposed to turkeys and by that I mean this….

Between now and next Monday night there will be hundreds of potential bets for you to make across damn near all the major sports.

These holiday weekends are the ones where one should choose to be most diligent.

‘Plan your work then work your plan.’

For me, each Thanksgiving is an opportunity to work backwards through the weekend starting with the MNF game then peddling backwards to Thanksgiving Day.

My teasers, any parlays and straight bets are mapped out with the knowledge that the masses will be betting one game (or time slot) right into the next. I like to keep open slots in my teasers/parlays where I can as the public will overreact from one game to the next and by the time they get to Sunday they’re Cross-Eyed Mary to say the least.

When the public is at its most vulnerable is when I want to be poised to take advantage.

I bet only NFL and with that said I would expect to have no more than five bets from Thursday to Monday night so firing 2-3 bets per day is feeding you right into the ‘Makers plan…. easy money.

The name of the Thanksgiving weekend game is walking into the sunset with profit as opposed to entertaining myself with a channel device in one hand, a turkey leg in another and live betting to try to dig my way out of too many wagers.

Today’s dissertation is about ‘the plan’ people and rather than machine gun Kelly ‘ing yourself from Tuesday through Monday playing baskets, pucks, college, and pro ..my advice is to plan your work, then work your plan.

It’s the professional way.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

Three fight slates remain in the UFC for the 2025 campaign.

This week they travel to Qatar for a Fight Night event featuring fourteen scheduled bouts. The UFC will use the 30’ cage for this event which will be populated with thousands of area fans looking to cheer their Muslim brethren to victory over a highly international set of skilled adversaries.

Favorites now stand 299-148-15 in the UFC this year (64.6%).

Three cards remain and the plan is to close the year down with fervor!

Also, please note: this fight card starts Saturday 7am PST with early prelims!

Arman Tsarukyan -500 vs. Dan Hooker +400 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Arman Tsarukyan is a gifted, durable, imposing mixed martial artist who uses vice grip pressure wrestling to help him overcome his short stature and lack of length.

A power striker who must enter the pocket on opponents to unleash power strikes, kicks and elbows, Tsarukyan chooses to work his way into the pocket then soften adversaries up with a few shots them immediately drag them down to the floor for a flogging.

Tsarukyan’s wrestling is as developed and effective as any in the lightweight division and his striking is complete enough to allow him to gain inside position in order to clasp, press and floor opponents.

Tsarukyan’s striking while power based, is also a great weapon for him as he realizes a +1.98 significant strike advantage while still being able to floor anyone in the lightweight division. His take down defense is world class and his aggression coupled with his developed fight arsenal make him a legitimate elite talent in the division.

Tsarukyan missed weight in his title opportunity against Islam Makhachev this past January which did not endear him to the UFC brass to say the least. This is why he has been shelved for some nine month’s awaiting a fight.

In Australian Dan Hooker Tsarukan takes on one of the few fighters in the division who is undaunted by his name, his fight game, and his wrestling heavy aggression.

Hooker, now thirty-five is not nearly the wrestler Tsarukyan is, but he is quite experienced in the UFC, he’ll be the taller man by five inches and will sport a three-inch reach advantage over the forward pressing wrestler from Armenia.

Hooker’s kickboxing is elite as well he is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Hooker enters this firefight after earning victory in his last three fights. The last two against top ranked lightweights in which he earned split decision victories.

In his last win, Hooker defeated one Mateusz Gamrot who’s size, strength, aggression, wrestling ability and body type are almost exactly the same as Tsarukyan’s. He just does not possess the striking power that Tsarukyan totes into any fight.

I cannot think of a better precursor to Tsarukyan for a mixed martial artist than Gamrot. I consider Hooker ready, able, and more than willing to go into this fight believing he can and will win but his age and the amount of attrition he has accumulated over his now eleven plus years in the UFC fighting elite competition has me feeling that he’ll be fodder for his Armenian attacker.

Tsarukyan is the worthy favorite here and I would look to the prop market to find value on the favorite here.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Ian Machado Garry -235 vs. Belal Muhammad +195 Welterweight co main event

Former welterweight champion Muhammad is a world class wrestling based fighter who possesses advanced grappling acumen complimented with unending cardio ability. Muhammad’s conditioning and unrelenting forward pressure allows the former champion to break down opponents via incessant, constant, forceful pressure.

Muhammad’s striking is an area of improvement that he must address, thought Muhammad will tell you he can strike with anyone. Ask Jack Della Maddalena if that is the case!

In actuality and when Muhammad is fighting at his peak, he utilizes his striking only long enough and in order to set up his fighting forte, which is his wrestling.

Any attempt by Muhammad to utilize his striking/kicking as a foundation to earn victory in any top ten UFC welterweight bout will result in him being exposed as he was in his last fight by Jack Della Maddalena. We saw Maddalena was dominated last week by Islam Makhachev who wrestled JDM from bell to bell, pilar to post.

Had Muhammad employed the same wrestling focused tactic in his battle against JDM, it is my position that he would be defending his belt on this card as opposed to having to face an extremely dangerous and highly athletic adversary In Ian Machado Garry.

In Garry we have an extremely well rounded mixed martial artist who is going to realize substantial height, reach and age differences in this matchup. Garry is the more adroit, nimble athletic fighter between these two as well he sports an eleven-year age advantage in this matchup.

Garry’s striking is not power based, but his ability to strike fluidly from every angle and position coupled with his deft footwork allow him to maintain the distance he needs to shred opponents with volume striking with unending volume. Garry’s grappling and wrestling is also world class as he is a black belt in Judo.

Muhammad must employ his forceful, patented unrelenting wrestling pressure to enter the pocket. From inside position, he’ll attempt to clasp onto the long, tall Irishman and commence the clasp, the clinch, and the takedown.

Garry’s style makes that ‘enter the pocket at all costs’ tactic a near impossibility for his athleticism and long, lanky body type coupled with his fluidity of movement make it most difficult for adversaries to be able to cut the cage on him then, even more difficult, back him into the fence to try to clinch him up.

I handicap Muhammad to be made for Garry in this contrast of fighting styles for Muhammad’s success will be founded on his cardio and wrestling while Garry’s advantages will come from his athleticism, well rounded mixed martial arts weaponry, and his ability to make himself a difficult athlete to catch up to let along clock.

Muhammad’s wrestling, his cardio, and the strength of his mentality may see him make it through all five rounds however, Garry’s balanced attack laced with an aggressive, yet evasive foundation make him the legitimate favorite in this clash of fighting styles.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -315

I am of the opinion that this total may move to 4.5 Rds.

This week’s release in what I consider to be another favorite laden fight card:

This week’s wager is a parlay:

Tsarukyan ‘to win via any finish’ -150/Garry Decision -120

1u returns 2.05u

GambLou.com

It’s Business!