Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, NFL, Profitability

NFL Preseason betting: Search for advantage not action

Each NFL season I try fruitlessly to encourage gamblers to hasten slowly. My advice is easy and grounded in common sense. It’s directed to those in a hurry to make a football wager before the season starts, or even before pre-season starts.

Many poorly informed bettors wager at the behest and advice of people in the reporting business who have huge hours to fill and oh so little to say. Some are handicappers, yes, but those that handicap every sport January to December are simply generalists able to blab and bet but they offer very little value. They are not profitable sports gamers.

I have always encouraged doing one’s own handicapping. It’s work but performed effectively due diligence now can be converted into profit later.

This is the time of year to read to study and to be in little hurry to do anything but prepare yourself to be able to understand each team.

Advantage will be uncovered during this work and when discovered information allowing the handicapper to fade a team and/or any accomplishments they may earn in the upcoming year are the target.

Striving to find weak, maimed teams and by maimed I refer to the fact that perhaps a team is getting overly thought of without doing anything to earn it other than a coaching change (Atlanta, New York) or coordinator adjustments (Seattle, Kansas City, Baltimore) then the key is to figure out a way to bet against any team accomplishments.

That’s my sole focus currently.

As far as the positive bets, the bets I wish to make on teams on which I am bullish?

Those bets are only made AFTER the preseason so injury, trade, divorce, or dereliction cannot adversely affect my bet before the season starts.

Once football begins we must live with the early choices made.

My early choices can only be aided or advanced by adverse effects, injury or whatever. If you bet positively on team accomplishments now then in all honestly you should think about your process.

Adverse effects occur every day in the NFL world people.

Pease, be diligent out there.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV120 Gamrot vs. Salkilld: The Damage….done?

The UFC Meta APEX hosts this week’s Fight Night event a fight slate that reached eleven bouts just last week with the addition of two matchups.

The APEX employs the smaller 25’ cage as well the venue holds only hundreds of fans.

Of the eleven bouts, four are competitions between athletes weighing 170lbs and above. That’s where finish rates are highest, it’s rewarding to get a couple of these bouts on this APEX card as the UFC seems to be evolving away from matching larger men in that small octagon/venue.

There are three bouts where an athlete from the USA faces an opponent that travels into the Country from abroad. Those fights will bear monitoring of the travelling athlete as well, their weight cut for travel does affect the weight and preparation of athletes.

Last week my supposed Serbian ‘hammer’ was in fact the ‘nail’ as journeyman mixed martial artist Gil Urbina knocked out local fighter Vlasto Cepo in one round. Onward we journey!

Mateusz Gamrot +130 vs. Quillan Sallkild -150 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

I have been taught that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.

In this fight we have a young, tall, strong Aussie black belt in BJJ taking on a short sawed off Polish chain wrestler in a main event that should really be compelling.

Australian Quillan Salkilld ships in for this bout after winning a contender series fight then realizing a 5-0 tally in UFC completion.

Salkilld has great physical advantages in this fight as he is eleven years the younger man, and he hold reach, height, and leg length dominance.

Salkilld need to employ those physical attributes to this fight particularly in order for him to keep the forward pressing and unrelenting wrestling of Gamrot at distance. Distance will allow Salkilld to utilize his jab, fire straight right hands behind that jab then follow that combination up with a kick which must be executed from a safe distance.

While Salkilld is a decorated BJJ artist, he does not wish to foray on the floor with this vice grip of a wrestling talent in Gamrot. With that mentioned, Salkilld has earned a 7.25 takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time stat which is impressive even considering the lack of elite competition he has competed against.

While his resume shows that he has finished four of his five adversaries, a closer look shows that none of those opponents were/are ranked in the top fifteen of the division nor were they elite with unrelenting forward pressing wrestling.

In Mateusz Gamrot we get the prototypical unrelenting power wrestler.

Gamrot’s UFC resume is far more complete than Salkilld’s as well he has faced a far superior set of elite UFC lightweight competition, after all he is thirty-five.

Gamrot will need to ensure that he avoids Salkilld’s power early in this fight and upon his entry to clasp then take down the Aussie.  He will need to protect his neck in those take down attempts and not run into a choke. When he is able to engage, and when he drags this long, lanky finisher to the ground (a key for him in this fight) the fight for Gamrot will commence while the desperation to get off his back will compel the Aussie.

Gamrot’s seen and competed against short, tall, thin, and rotund strikers/wrestlers/grapplers prior while Salkilld’s first run in with an elite power wrestler of any body type will come Saturday.

This fight sets up to be competitive early but eventually the unrelenting pressure of Gamrot could begin to wear the long, tall Aussie down and eventually make him susceptible to the Gamrot control, ground and pound and damage.

After all, this is a substantial step up in class for Salkilld as well it is a five round fight, a first for Salkilld but not the first for Gamrot.

It’s my take that this will be a very competitive fight. Salkilld will need to pulverize Gamrot with elbows, fists and knees on his way to engage while Gamrot must fight this man from an inside the pocket position. Gamrot must be glue and affix himself on Salkilld in order to mute the Aussie’s offense and put him on the defense for Gamrot being forced to remain on the outside in this battle will be disaster to his chances of winning.

A great, competitive fight in a small cage. edge to wrestler?

Total in this fight: There are books with 3.5Rds. Over -125 as well there are books with 4.5Rds Under -135.

Strong Lean to Over 3.5

Alexia Thainara -240 vs. Amanda Lemos +205 Women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Tenth ranked Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner who trains with the Ribas family. She is a developing fighter who is 3-0 in UFC competition facing only a nominally effective set of competition entering this fight.

Thainara holds a two inch reach advantage in this fight which means little as she is a grappler as opposed to an effective striker. She is also a whopping eleven years the younger fighter in this matchup.

At the turn of the year I pledged to quit chasing fighters six years (+/-) older than their opponent and it has paid dividends however, in this fight I must make an exception.

Eleven ranked Amanda Lemos, now thirty-nine has competed against the absolute elite of the strawweight division. She’s realized a 9-6 record over nine years of UFC competition.

Lemos is unlike most Brazilian fighters in that her grappling is underdeveloped while her striking aptitude, power, volume, and strike defense are elite. Lemos takes this fight knowing that with a loss she freefalls down the rankings and more than likely out of the top twenty of the division which spells doom for a thirty-nine year old.

So Thainara enters the most important fight of her life while Lemos does also!

Lemos’ experience and the level of competition faced force me to believe that she’ll manage the take down attempts put on her by Thainara then when this fight remains standing I judge Lemos to be in far superior position.

I expect Lemos to fight like a pit bull backed into a corner protecting a litter in this fight. She is NOT ready to ride off into the sunset rather, I believe she puts forth a highly effective game plan on her way to a decision victory.

Lemos +205

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my releases for this fight card there or go to Ga,nLou.com to access the podcast.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Fight Night Serbia: Beatdown in Belgrade

Belgrade, Serbia hosts its first UFC Fight Night with the headline fight being local fighter Uros Medic taking on American mixed martial artist Daniel Rodriguez.

The fight slate offers a full house of rabid Serbian fans thirteen bouts populated with a highly international set of athletes arriving from some seventeen countries. Twelve local/regional athletes will have the honor of fighting in front of a crowd that is looking for violence.

Unfortunately, and similar to last week, nine of the thirteen bouts on this card are lined with the favorite -250 or higher!  I will be measured in releases with this card.

Last week Mike Davis got out wrestled by a dynamically equipped wrestler however, Nurullo Aliev, the wrestler who defeated Davis put absolutely no damage on him nor did he try to ‘fight.’ He wrestled.

The second release was for the ‘main event to start round 2’ -250 which was a winner. I tied that side to MacKenzie Dern -198, Dern competes in UFC 330 August 15th against Canadian Gillian Robertson. That parlay pays +110 should it come to fruition, and I believe that’s in fact what will transpire.

On to Belgrade!

Uros Medic -365 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +300 Welterweight (170lbs.) Main event

Thirteenth ranked welterweight Daniel Rodriguez is a street fighting man.

Groomed for fighting in the streets of Los Angeles and it’s prison system, ‘DRod’ as he is called, has no fear…. of anything.

He’s competed in three separate divisions in mixed martial arts and as a welterweight in the UFC he’s accrued a 10-4 record against pedigreed, worthy talent.

Rodriguez is a purple belt in BJJ but grappling aside, DRod wants to kick, punch, elbow and knee his way into finishing opponents. Four of DRod’s ten victories in the UFC have come via finish.

Rodriguez will own a three inch reach advantage, and the southpaw is six years the elder athlete in this fight at the ripe age of thirty-nine.

One aspect of this confrontation is that in July of 2025 Rodriguez was scheduled to fight however he was in Mexico and was forced to spend several months in prison.

The lack of appropriate training, the lack of substantial nutrition and the time spent there had to have taken it’s toll on a thirty-nine year old athlete. It is fair to wonder how Rodriguez will respond to the intensity of a UFC battle even after having some time (perhaps not appropriate time) to recover and restore his fighting physique and mentality appropriately.

Uros Medic is fourteenth ranked in the division. After his last victory, he made the call out for a UFC event to be held in Serbia, and the UFC granted that wish.

Medic, a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an orange belt in Judo sports an 8-3 tally in UFC competition. He competed against worthy competition and enters this bout off an impressive finish of Texan Goeff Neal.

Medic is also a southpaw, so both of these guys being left handed scrappers will add a degree of oddity to this fight as two lefties competing against one another is relatively uncommon and it sets up to be potentially an awkward fight.

Once this bout starts, look for the forward pressure of Medic to clash immediately with the frenetic pace that Rodriguez wants to impose upon the native Serbian.  Like two male rams clashing on the side of the mountain, these two fighters will each take the fight directly to the other with the sole purpose of leaving the other quivering on the canvass.

Medic’s six year age advantage must be considered as well the fact he fights at home against an American that must make the trip into Serbia then prepare his body and mind for the weight cut and finally the competition.

As is often the case, the UFC chose Medic’s opponent carefully and with the express interest of offering Medic a fighter he can handle as well one he may finish in order to stir excitement into the Serbian crowd.

Medic, by the way, has had his last five bouts (4-1 record) end in the first round.

Tough spot for DRod.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -200

Strong lean over

Vlasto Cepo -280 vs. Gil Urbina +235 Middleweight (185lbs)

With another chalk laden fight slate we’ll take to the parlay position as we did last week.

In this fight the ‘subject’ is American fighter Gil Urbina who is 1-3 in UFC competition. Urbina holds advantages in UFC experience and height and is a very active striker who lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute while accepting 4.65.

Urbina does offer some wrestling aptitude and is able to execute the take down however his strength, his strike defense and his suspect chin make him an easy mark for a local debuting power striker.

In Cepo we get the aforementioned pumped up power striker.

Cepo is able to compete in front of his home countrymen for this debut and against a target in Urbina who has been knocked out by the middle of the second round in three of his last four bouts.

This fight is designed to offer the Serbian fans a local fighter who is in position to shine and should perform as expected against a fighter in Urbina who is game and willing, but who is also ill equipped to fend of the force from this Serbian slugger.

Parlay time:

Cepo -280 to MacKenzie Dern -198

(Derm fights Gillian Robertson on UFC 330 August 15) +104

Please note: This column holds Dern -198 as the second leg of a parlay (Ankalaev/Guskov starts round 2) from last week’s column which pays +110. Clearly I favor Ms. Dern in her bout against the Canadian Robertson.

Friday late morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch all my final releases for this card there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC Abu Dhabi Ankalaev vs. Guskov: Russian Roulette?

The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi UAE this weekend to export their brand to the fight frenetic Muslim world. Abu Dhabi is becoming a regular stop for the UFC as they attract great crowds for the events as well there is a business camaraderie between the leadership there and the UFC.

This event will utilize the large cage, and a full house will witness the intended violence. We have thirteen schedule bouts of which eight will be held in the higher weight classes of Welterweight on up. These larger men produce the highest finish rates in the UFC, so we witness the effort to export UFC violence to the UAE.

There are seven fights on this card where the favorite is lined at least -310, in essence bringing total wagerable fights (outside of props and totals) to eight bouts, there are also a handful of fights where there exists great advantage from a youth standpoint.

Understanding age, size, travel, and location of the fight slate is always foundational in my handicapping process.

Last week Jose Delgado +100 overcame a steamed prospect in Austin Bashi. Bashi was hit by the so called ‘sharp’ gambling people right before they dropped the puck on this fight moving Delgado into plus price territory. Delgado awarded Bashi his PhD. In MMA we tote a unit into our yearly bankroll.

Magomed Ankaleav -550 vs. Bogdan Guskov +430 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Ninth ranked light heavyweight Guskov steps in on relatively short notice to take advantage of the opportunity to climb the rankings with a victory over the number two ranked and former champion in Ankalaev.

Guskov takes the place of Kalil Roundtree, he enters this fight after a draw to former champion Jan Blachowicz after winning four straight bouts.

Guskov is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a Master of Sport in MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Boxing. He is strong, determined and he utilizes a forward pressing attack where engagement with the opponent is mandatory for of Guskov’s eighteen wins, all are via finish.

That being stated, this is a substantial step up in class for Guskov, he too takes this opportunity on without the benefit of a full training camp.

Former champion Ankalaev, currently ranked number two in the division is also highly versed in fighting for he holds an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.

While most Russian fighters excel in grappling, sambo and wrestling Ankaleav utilizes more of a pressing striking and kicking attack to earn his wages. Of his twenty wins, ten have come via the KO and ten via decision. Unusually for a Russian athlete in the UFC, Ankalaev holds no wins via submission.

This fight makes out to be a war that will be waged on the feet for fifteen of Guskov’s victories in MMA have come via the KO/TKO while ten have come that way for Ankalaev. Ankalaev’s ten decision wins point more to the elite level of adversary he has competed against as opposed to any lack of finishing ability in my judgement.

Once this fight begins Ankalaev’s size, might and experience will be the tells against an athlete in Guskov who has been pressed into this opportunity based on UFC need as opposed to Guskov’s own merits.

This will be a one sided fight after a relatively competitive first round.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -155

As a handicapper, my analysis of this card is that it was put together with the sole purpose of serving a proud, financially active and involved Saudi demographic. I hate to state the obvious but the overwhelming mismatch fights on this card force the opportunity searching handicapper to have fewer fight to analyze for profit.

One consideration is to select four or five area combatants that are heavy chalk then throw them into a round robin and bet each in 2 and 3 team sets.

I however rarely bet that way so for our purposes let’s execute the following future parlay ourselves.

Main Event,

Ankalaev/Guskov starts Round 2 -250 To MacKenzie Dern -198; +110 (DraftKings)

(Dern fights 8-15 vs. Gillian Robertson)

Total in Ankalaev/Guskov Fight: 2.5 -145 Under

Nurullo Aliev -220 vs. Mike Davis +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Aliev is set up for shine in front of his peeps as he is a vice grip Tajikistani wrestling/sambo force entering this battle undefeated professionally at 11-0.

Should this fight go Aliev’s way we’ll witness the Tajik fighter take Davis down immediately then control him from top position on his way to an eventual decision or perhaps if lucky, a finish. That’s what many feel will occur in this fight.

Myself, I handicap a lethal, pent up fighting professional in Mike Davisa who’s wrestling is so much more acute than many understand to be like a coiled cobra in this situation.

He’s not had to utilize wrestling much because he sports hands or fury. He is a slick, competent power boxer along with holding underestimated wrestling acumen. That wrestling, specifically his take down defense must allow Davis to navigate this fight into the later rounds where his experience and technical striking ability will begin to produce effect.

Mike Davis is an underestimated razor blade and in a situation like this, I trust him to fight for my dollar.

Mike Davis +190

Total in this fight is not yet released, nor is the Points Handicap which is a betting tool I utilize religiously.

Friday when the ‘Bout Business Podcast comes out; I’ll highlight all my approaches to this fight and there are many.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast UFC Du Plessis vs. Usman: Gorilla warefare

I drove up to Las Vegas for the weekend. Will be watching the fights at O’Aces with industry chaps Saturday night.

Let’s Fight:

Parlay: Ko -198/Du Plessis -215 1u returns 1.20u

Parlay: Delgado -110/Makhachev -340 2u returns 2.98u

Future Wager: Makhachev to be Welterweight Champion 12/31/26 -115  2.30u to earn 2.0u

Cannonier+3.5pts. +120 1.0u returns 1.20u

a very conservative approach this week.

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Usman vs. Du Plessis: French Inhaler

Oklahoma City is the host city for this week’s UFC LV120 event. The fight card has eleven bouts scheduled after a frantic couple of weeks where the event has lost three fight matchups.

Unusually for the APEX, there are five fights scheduled with combatants weighing 170lbs. and above. The chances of finishing the other opponent is strongest within these weight classes.

We also will witness five bouts where there exists a five year youth advantage and in seven bouts, a fighter from outside the country must travel into Las Vegas and compete against an American fighter where travel, weight issues and visa concerns should not be an issue.

Last week Mario Bautista and Max Holloway both earned for digital readers so we enter this card on a tremendous heater….let’s keep it runin!

We track actual releases here not overall thoughts… as an aside.

Dricus Du Plessis -260 vs. Kamaru Usman +220 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Usman is the former welterweight champion who at the ripe old age of thirty-nine has decided to try once again to find relevance in a division where the men are stronger, younger, and larger than he.

This will be Usman’s fourth fight since 2023 where he pivoted from the 170 pound welterweight division for a loss to Leon Edwards then jumped up to Middleweight to be dominated by Kamzat Chimaev before taking a little time off to refocus.

In his most recent bout, Usman fought a welterweight battle against Joaquin Buckley last year where he wiped the floor with the fighter from St. Louis who is wrestling void!

Now after a year and a half Usman returns to the larger middleweight division to face off against its former champion in DDP.

DDP is seven years younger than Usman and as importantly he has taken only a nominal amount of damage in his career while Usman, a professional mixed martial artist since 2012 has many battles under his belt along with plenty of fight damage to haul into this main event and that’s before we even mention the damage he has accrued to his knees.

This will be a difficult matchup for Usman who has a tremendous wrestling acumen, but those two wobbly knees may well make execution of said wrestling prowess very difficult, especially against a guy in DDP that has been focusing on his wrestling in preparation of this battle.

DDP arrives to this fight close to the prime of his career where Usman enters this fight hoping to find a lucky submission in order to make one last run at middleweight.

While I have tremendous respect for Kamaru Usman and his body of UFC work it appears to me that rather than the UFC having to direct Usman to the retirement discussion, they’ll allow DDP to do that for them for while this fight will begin in competitive fashion the longer it goes the more I see Usman slowing and eventually showing his age and the accumulation of attrition that his body has undergone over almost two decades of world class wrestling/UFC competitions.

Total in this fight: 3.5 Over -190

Lean to the Over for DDP’s wrestling is nominal and the proud old Usman is not likely to go out of this one easily.

Jose Delgado -115 vs. Austin Bashi -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Bashi is a decorated and renown world class wrestling talent who has transitioned into MMA.

14-1 professionally, Bashi is 1-1 in UFC competition easily dominating John Yannis after being schooled by a well-rounded striker/wrestler in Christian Rodriguez in his debut fight in the UFC.

The good news for Bashi is that he fought a competent Rodriguez to a decision loss as well this athlete is a quick learner and is accelerating in mixed martial arts competence especially in the striking department quickly.

Jose Delgado steps into this fight 3-1 in UFC competition, he’s faced well more diverse and talented competition as well he’ll own height, reach and size advantages over the short sawed-off Bashi.

Delgado trains at Phoenix’s MMALab a team rife with world class wrestling/grappling talent so competing against Bashi in this spot will surely be a challenge but nothing more strenuous that whet he see’s daily in training.

Delgado’s size, reach, power, and well-rounded mixed martial arts weaponry separates him here from the novice Bashi and while money has tricked in on Bashi the price on Delgado has transitioned from -170 at open to -115 current.

That signals an immediate buy on Delgado -115

Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -180

Strong lean Over

Friday the white hot ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my final; releases for this fight cards there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

‘Bout Business Podcast UFC 329: When Irish eyes are swollen

Day got away from me as I had numerous video appearances. These bets will be no suprise th those that tunes into my numerous appearances this week. As a backup here are the official GambLou.com releases for UFC 329:

-Holloway ITD -120 1u

-Holloway -205 2.05u to win 1u

-Main event does NOT start 5 -310/ Riley -218 1.08/1.00u

-Fiziev starts 2/Bautista +135 1u to return 2.15u

-Pimlett +135 1.0/1.35u

-Steveson/Ellison starts 2 ++275 .35u

I may have add on’s day of fight stay tuned

ADD:                            Yanez -385/McKinney-Green starts Rd 2 +280 .50u returns 1.25u                                                                                                         

 

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC 329 Holloway vs. McGregor: When Irish eyes are swollen

This week’s UFC 329 is highlighted by the return of Conor McGregor who takes on Max Holloway in a rematch thirteen years in the making. Then they fought at 145lbs and Saturday their fight is ‘scheduled’ for 170lbs. in the welterweight division.

T-Mobile in Las Vegas will host the event that features fourteen bouts to be waged in the large thirty foot octagon and in front of a packed house.

Five fights feature athletes travelling into the states top compete against fighters from the USA, so home turf may offer advantage in those fights as well there are five fights that will be waged in the higher weight classes (170 lbs. and above) where finishes are more frequent than in the lower divisions.

Lastly, in a fight that will last less than 120 seconds, Gable Stevson makes his UFC debut, Stevenson is a world class Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling who will decimate the mannequin they have placed before him in that matchup. 

Time to make some hay!

Max Holloway -220 vs. Conor McGregor +190 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Thirteen years ago these two tussled at 145lbs. McGregor won in a decision against a young, skinny, green Max Holloway who was in his fourth UFC fight.

Flash forward to today and the paths each man has taken to get here are drastically different.

For McGregor, we understand the unique brilliance, the deft footwork, the power, and the simple mental majesty by which he overtook the featherweight division in the UFC then eventually the UFC as a whole.

However, despite the formidable body of work he left us with prior to this fight, it must be mentioned that Conor last fought five years ago which was his second devastating loss in a row to one Dustin Poirier, this time in in round one because of a broken bone in his leg.

McGregor’s last five years have been colorful to say the least. While out of the cage he’s rampaged through the headlines. His chronology is heavily marked by numerous episodes with the law, the courtroom as well he’s had to defend himself in the courtroom against many forms of accusation.

Further, and as importantly, in fighting history itself, one thing has proven to be an absolute fact, that once a man with little to no means is able to propel himself (or herself) through their own immense talent, diligence, and dedication to the pinnacle of the fighting profession that the attainment of that goal, once so foreign to them comes back to corrode them comprehensively because of what the fruits of their labor provide them.

Check fighting history, save for Umar Nurmagomedov and Rocky Marciano no other all time great fighters have been able to walk away from the ring or cage without compromising their own legacy.

It’s history.

Fighters need edge and desperation to gain their reputation.

What they must avoid and what truly corrodes their mind, body and eventually their skill is what the exact success that fighting provides them.

Private jet transportation, silk sheets, Veuve Clicquot and a yes to any question they ask. Yes, once fighters achieve their goal of attaining a title and beyond like McGregor had, then the real adversity begins.

McGregor is today’s textbook example of this. He’s now thirty-seven years old, has not fought in five years and comes in off two loses at that!

McGregor’s mind is sharp no doubt, but I assure you his body will not be able to execute what his mind will try to direct it to.

I expect McGregor to miss weight in this fight and do so on purpose for he is not only keenly unprofessional, but he also understands that the pressure to make this fight will be such that there is no way Max (who has never competed at any weight higher than 155lbs.) his camp or anyone involved with this production will allow the fight to be cancelled.

Yes, McGregor is mentally crafty, and that’s how he can play his mental warfare on Max by making him accept the fight at a weight class other than 170lbs. I believe this is exactly what McGregor will do as it is his way of gaining an edge.

His mind remembers but in the end, all his tricks and magic will not be able to save the thirty seven year old former addict from his trivial pursuit.

We must also take into consideration that Max Holloway has been active, he’s coming off bouts against Gaethje, Topuria, Poirier and Oliviera that absolute elite of the lightweight division.

Max has been competing; he will be able to carry the 170lbs. and carry it effectively into the later rounds of this fight because of his dedication and drive as well because he has stayed active in the game during these last five years while Conor was busy making headlines.

Once the bell for round one rings, McGregor will come out firing fresh, furious and with frenetic pace but he’ll have six and a half minutes to perform, for after that McGregor’s mind will realize what his abused body will be telling him…..that he is able to recall how to fight in world class fashion however that he is simply unable to physically execute that level of fighting any longer.

The mind remembers, but the body just can’t execute anymore.

Come Saturday night I believe Max Holloway will present the brash cocky Irishman a ‘Proper’ send off. 

Max Holloway via and KO/Sub/DQ -125 DraftKings

Total in this fight 2.5Rds Under -130

Strong lean Under

Cory Sandhagen -145 vs. Mario Bautista +125 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Rematch!

This second go round for these two will be a much more competitive fight as then, Bautista took the fight against a ranked Sandhagen on short notice and as a debuting UFC athlete.

Fourth ranked bantamweight Sandhagen trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s got a Taekwondo background supplemented with a brown belt in BJJ, but Sandhagen is also able to utilize his tall, long frame effectively on the feet for he is athletic and sports effective strike evasion to go with his diversity of strikes and kicks which he accrues via volume as opposed to power.

Sandhagen’s grappling is elite and he’s been in the octagon with the absolute elite of the division. Sandhagen is a legitimate top five athlete at bantamweight.

For the fifth ranked Bautista, this rematch has been the fight he has been yearning for over the course of the last several years. A black belt in BJJ with a foundation in wrestling and boxing, Bautista is your true diligent grinding Mexican fighter.

He has an iron will, a great diversity of offensive attack as well he sports solid wrestling acumen. Bautista is able to overwhelm opponents with his positive 1.32 significant strikes per minute then fold in his world class wrestling/grappling prowess (a trait of all MMALab athletes) into the mix.

Sandhagen will be the taller, longer man in the cage, but Bautista will be the more compact, powerful player. Bautista’s focus on stepping over Sandhagen has been simmering for the last seven years since they first competed and it will be the constant forward pressure that Bautista will apply to Sandhagen throughout this fight that will make the difference here.

This is a stellar opportunity for Bautista to snag Sandhagen’s shine and catapult himself up the rankings and make his case for a title opportunity.

The completeness of Bautista’s mixed martial arts weaponry and more specifically his pressure wrestling/grappling will ultimately separate him from Sandhagen in oh so competitive rematch.

Bautista +125

Total in this fight:  2.5Rds Over -275

This is a stellar fight card that has amazing matchups. For all of my final releases please check out the ‘Bout Business Podcast available anywhere you get your pod’s and at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

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It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Azerbaijan Fiziev vs. Torres: Manuel Labor

Baku, Azerbaijan hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night event, a fight card populated with twelve bouts ten of which feature local/regional Muslim athletes that will compete against fighters arriving from across the globe. There is one fight featuring two area combatants as well we get a fight featuring athletes who face off from Columbia against Australia.

They employ a large cage in Azerbaijan as well the crowd there will enjoy twelve hand selected bouts all of which feature male fighters and most of which favor slightly the area participant.

Bouts kick off at 6am PST for the prelims then the main card at 9am PST.

Last week we correctly predicted Manuel Kape to overcome his opponent after a couple of close rounds which is exactly what transpired. We turn our attention now to Baku.

Rafael Fiziev -120 vs. Manuel Torres +100 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Torres is a Mexican finisher.

Since his debut on DWCS he has realized a 6-1 record in the UFC with all six of those wins being first round finishes. Torres has been consistent as his defeat to Ignacio Bahamondes was also via first round submission.

Torres has NEVER fought out of the first round in the entirety of his professional career save for one early fight he had in 2018.

Torres has a Muay Thai background, he employs constant forward pressure designed to lure opponents into the firefight, as well Torres has a granite beard.

Torres’ last four foe’s have prepared him in style and level of competition to be more than competitive in this step up fight against a savant Muay Tahi striker in Rafael Fiziev.

In native Azerbaijani Fiziev, the striking coach at Tiger Muat Thai in Phuket, Thailand we have a dominant local warrior versed in world class Muay Thai and supplemented with a blue belt in BJJ.

Fiziev is 1-4 in his last five, but his defeats were against elite top five competition in the division the likes of which Torres has yet to compete against, as well that sole victory was against Bahamondes, the man who defeated Torres in one round.

Torres will sport height, age and reach advantages over the local Fiziev, however, who Fiziev has competed against must factor into this handicap as well the damage and attrition those bouts levied upon him.

Yes, Fiziev has competed against the higher level of adversary by far, but what and how much have those defeats taken from the thirty-three year old? Meanwhile Torres travels across the world to take on a most dangerous power striker/kicker in his own back yard and with all the locals jeering for Fiziev and against Torres.

This fight figures to be a real barnburner…do not miss this main event.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Abus Magomedov -150 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 Middleweight (185lbs.)

We’ll refer to each of these men in this column by their first names.

Abus is the local fighter who has realized a 4-3 record in the UFC.

Abus can strike and he has a solid wrestling base as do most Russian athletes. Abus has displayed an extremely balanced set of mixed martial arts weaponry for he has an impressive fourteen KO’s followed by eight submission wins and six wins via decision.

Magomedov has competed against three fighters currently ranked in the top seven of the division and despite him losing all three of those scraps, Abus arrives to this fight looking to bounce after a submission loss back in October of last year.

In Polish power puncher Mike O we have an extremely aggressive knockout artist who once competed against the light heavyweights before dropping down to middleweight where he has realized a 6-4 record.

Michal has not faced the lethal set of adversary that Abus has, but he has fought several of the same athletes and has realized success. Mike O will do all he can to keep this battle on the feet for he will own advantages in athleticism, toughness, and most especially striking aptitude for he sports a +1.35 significant strike per minute advantage over Abus who holds a negative significant strike differential.

Where Abus may be giving away striking aptitude and athleticism, he will own advantage in his grappling/wrestling, and it is here that Abus will look for build the foundation of this fight ….by taking Mike O to the floor for a roll immediately.

Where this fight takes place will be a great barometer to who is in control here for Mike O is close to inept on the canvas while he will hold great advantage in the striking and leg kick department should this fight remain standing.

This will be a great clash of styles but one where I believe the underdog is more than live!

Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 circa.

I also released this on the GambLou ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast Oleksiejczuk +135, so the number is dropping buy now.

Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -135

Strong lean over

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms or at GambLou.com.

Access all my final releases there.

Enjoy the fights

published 6-23-26

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Kape vs. Horiguchi: Ion blaster

After a tremendous show of National unity and mixed martial arts competition we return to the modest Meta APEX facility in las Vegas for this week’s fight card.

Twelve fights populate this slate with talent that ranges from debuting journeymen to talented flyweights in a title eliminator.

APEX productions mean smaller bodies waging war as evidenced by the fact that only two of the twelve take place at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Also only three of these bouts are lines with the favorite under a -200 chalk.

Last week this column dropped 1 unit with my Stevie Garcia straight wager, but the win/win parlay scenario discussed on VSiN by the Books, as well on several VSiN shows last week won and netted 1.70u.

 

Manuel Kape -155 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi +135 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

This fight is a rematch of a 2017 fight won by the then more mature 26 year old Horiguchi who submitted the twenty-three year old neophyte striker in the third round.

Then Kape was young, green, and learning while Horiguchi was three years older but evolutions ahead of Kape when it came to MMA intelligence, weaponry, and tactic.

Now the tables turn and Horiguchi a decorated A-Class Shootist with a 2nd degree black belt in Shotokan Karate returns to take on this old rival as a rejuvenated thirty five year old.

Horiguchi, fifth ranked in the division held great experience advantage in that first fight, now Kape, thirty-two and in his prime fighting years will own the advantages.

Youth, speed, power, athleticism, and arm length all provide the division’s number two ranked Kape edges against the Japanese fighter while in this rematch he gives away nothing in level of adversary faced or UFC experience.

This will be a competitive fight for a couple of rounds until the unorthodox striking acumen and freakish athleticism of Kape begins to expose the proud Japanese warrior who I believe will struggle to close the distance on a fighter in Manuel Kape who is the divisions most dangerous fighter.

Kape -155

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -135

Christian Rodriguez -180 vs. Hyder Amil +155 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Unranked but talented featherweights scrap in this fine matchup of fighting styles.

CRod hit the UFC quickly realizing a 4-1 record out of the gate however once the organization stepped up his level of competition, CRod struggled going 1-3 in his last four bouts. Those fights were all against mid-level unranked opponents save for his last two fights both losses against talent ranked just outside the division’s top eight.

CRod is athletic, has great footwork and is equipped in boxing and wrestling but his power is non apparent, and he can seem to fade as his bouts transpire.

In Hyder Amil we have a pint sized power puncher.

Unusually, Amil will be the taller athlete in the cage Saturday, and he’ll immediately look to engage CRod and force him against the cage where the battering is best for Amil will not try to wrestle or grapple but he will try to injure and maim with his strikes and kicks.

CRod’s youth advantage is real in this fight for he is eight years the younger fighter in this one and will look t5o use his wrestling chops to gain the upper hand.

Amil returns off of some form of injury/malady that affected him in his last couple of fights, both losses to very competent UFC talent and he has vowed to make this fight look much different than his last two.

It’s my opinion that the pricing on this fight is based on CRod’s last couple of off performances and against what I regard as more stringent competition than Amil has faced.

That stated, Amil’s pressure, his power and his bounce post injury may be just the combination he needs to enter this fight and get his hand raised against a fighter in Rodriguez that will struggle to maintain equilibrium on the feet and will try to turn this into a wrestling match.

Amil is a points position. ‘Bout Business for all my final releases Friday.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Vinicius Oliviera -285 vs. Andre Fili +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Fili is a decade’s long UFC talent who holds a 13-12-1 record in the organization.

At thirty  five, many think Fili to be past his prime however based on the performance he put on in his last fight I would have to say that Fili’s talent and fight game is not waning and in fact I find him to be most dangerous in this spot.

He’ll be the more experienced fighter, as well one who is comfortable vying with fighters weighing up to 160lbs. come fight night as most featherweights do.

Fili’s experience, who he has been in against, and his well rounded fight arsenal are more than enough to protect a chin that has been compromised over the course of his duration the UFC.

In Brazil’s Oliviera we have a basic bully.

He’s wildly athletic but that does not translate to precision striking and dedication to plan rather he is explosive but wild and when challenged like in his last fight he can crumple under the pressure.

Oliviera is stepping up from 135lbs bantamweight into the larger featherweight division and despite the difference in physique and athleticism, this has the perfect making to be a great ‘welcome to the featherweight division’ greeting from Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili.

Fili +235 

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Pick-em

Fili Decision for those looking for maximize opportunity. That line is not yet posted.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. We’re white hot after a huge night last week at UFC Freedom 250 so give a listen!