Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC FN Azerbaijan Fiziev vs. Torres: Manuel Labor

Baku, Azerbaijan hosts this week’s UFC Fight Night event, a fight card populated with twelve bouts ten of which feature local/regional Muslim athletes that will compete against fighters arriving from across the globe. There is one fight featuring two area combatants as well we get a fight featuring athletes who face off from Columbia against Australia.

They employ a large cage in Azerbaijan as well the crowd there will enjoy twelve hand selected bouts all of which feature male fighters and most of which favor slightly the area participant.

Bouts kick off at 6am PST for the prelims then the main card at 9am PST.

Last week we correctly predicted Manuel Kape to overcome his opponent after a couple of close rounds which is exactly what transpired. We turn our attention now to Baku.

Rafael Fiziev -120 vs. Manuel Torres +100 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Torres is a Mexican finisher.

Since his debut on DWCS he has realized a 6-1 record in the UFC with all six of those wins being first round finishes. Torres has been consistent as his defeat to Ignacio Bahamondes was also via first round submission.

Torres has NEVER fought out of the first round in the entirety of his professional career save for one early fight he had in 2018.

Torres has a Muay Thai background, he employs constant forward pressure designed to lure opponents into the firefight, as well Torres has a granite beard.

Torres’ last four foe’s have prepared him in style and level of competition to be more than competitive in this step up fight against a savant Muay Tahi striker in Rafael Fiziev.

In native Azerbaijani Fiziev, the striking coach at Tiger Muat Thai in Phuket, Thailand we have a dominant local warrior versed in world class Muay Thai and supplemented with a blue belt in BJJ.

Fiziev is 1-4 in his last five, but his defeats were against elite top five competition in the division the likes of which Torres has yet to compete against, as well that sole victory was against Bahamondes, the man who defeated Torres in one round.

Torres will sport height, age and reach advantages over the local Fiziev, however, who Fiziev has competed against must factor into this handicap as well the damage and attrition those bouts levied upon him.

Yes, Fiziev has competed against the higher level of adversary by far, but what and how much have those defeats taken from the thirty-three year old? Meanwhile Torres travels across the world to take on a most dangerous power striker/kicker in his own back yard and with all the locals jeering for Fiziev and against Torres.

This fight figures to be a real barnburner…do not miss this main event.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140

Abus Magomedov -150 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 Middleweight (185lbs.)

We’ll refer to each of these men in this column by their first names.

Abus is the local fighter who has realized a 4-3 record in the UFC.

Abus can strike and he has a solid wrestling base as do most Russian athletes. Abus has displayed an extremely balanced set of mixed martial arts weaponry for he has an impressive fourteen KO’s followed by eight submission wins and six wins via decision.

Magomedov has competed against three fighters currently ranked in the top seven of the division and despite him losing all three of those scraps, Abus arrives to this fight looking to bounce after a submission loss back in October of last year.

In Polish power puncher Mike O we have an extremely aggressive knockout artist who once competed against the light heavyweights before dropping down to middleweight where he has realized a 6-4 record.

Michal has not faced the lethal set of adversary that Abus has, but he has fought several of the same athletes and has realized success. Mike O will do all he can to keep this battle on the feet for he will own advantages in athleticism, toughness, and most especially striking aptitude for he sports a +1.35 significant strike per minute advantage over Abus who holds a negative significant strike differential.

Where Abus may be giving away striking aptitude and athleticism, he will own advantage in his grappling/wrestling, and it is here that Abus will look for build the foundation of this fight ….by taking Mike O to the floor for a roll immediately.

Where this fight takes place will be a great barometer to who is in control here for Mike O is close to inept on the canvas while he will hold great advantage in the striking and leg kick department should this fight remain standing.

This will be a great clash of styles but one where I believe the underdog is more than live!

Michal Oleksiejczuk +130 circa.

I also released this on the GambLou ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast Oleksiejczuk +135, so the number is dropping buy now.

Total in this fight: 1.5 rds. Over -135

Strong lean over

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms or at GambLou.com.

Access all my final releases there.

Enjoy the fights

published 6-23-26

Posted on Author Lou Categories General, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Kape vs. Horiguchi: Ion blaster

After a tremendous show of National unity and mixed martial arts competition we return to the modest Meta APEX facility in las Vegas for this week’s fight card.

Twelve fights populate this slate with talent that ranges from debuting journeymen to talented flyweights in a title eliminator.

APEX productions mean smaller bodies waging war as evidenced by the fact that only two of the twelve take place at welterweight (170lbs.) and above. Also only three of these bouts are lines with the favorite under a -200 chalk.

Last week this column dropped 1 unit with my Stevie Garcia straight wager, but the win/win parlay scenario discussed on VSiN by the Books, as well on several VSiN shows last week won and netted 1.70u.

 

Manuel Kape -155 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi +135 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

This fight is a rematch of a 2017 fight won by the then more mature 26 year old Horiguchi who submitted the twenty-three year old neophyte striker in the third round.

Then Kape was young, green, and learning while Horiguchi was three years older but evolutions ahead of Kape when it came to MMA intelligence, weaponry, and tactic.

Now the tables turn and Horiguchi a decorated A-Class Shootist with a 2nd degree black belt in Shotokan Karate returns to take on this old rival as a rejuvenated thirty five year old.

Horiguchi, fifth ranked in the division held great experience advantage in that first fight, now Kape, thirty-two and in his prime fighting years will own the advantages.

Youth, speed, power, athleticism, and arm length all provide the division’s number two ranked Kape edges against the Japanese fighter while in this rematch he gives away nothing in level of adversary faced or UFC experience.

This will be a competitive fight for a couple of rounds until the unorthodox striking acumen and freakish athleticism of Kape begins to expose the proud Japanese warrior who I believe will struggle to close the distance on a fighter in Manuel Kape who is the divisions most dangerous fighter.

Kape -155

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -135

Christian Rodriguez -180 vs. Hyder Amil +155 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Unranked but talented featherweights scrap in this fine matchup of fighting styles.

CRod hit the UFC quickly realizing a 4-1 record out of the gate however once the organization stepped up his level of competition, CRod struggled going 1-3 in his last four bouts. Those fights were all against mid-level unranked opponents save for his last two fights both losses against talent ranked just outside the division’s top eight.

CRod is athletic, has great footwork and is equipped in boxing and wrestling but his power is non apparent, and he can seem to fade as his bouts transpire.

In Hyder Amil we have a pint sized power puncher.

Unusually, Amil will be the taller athlete in the cage Saturday, and he’ll immediately look to engage CRod and force him against the cage where the battering is best for Amil will not try to wrestle or grapple but he will try to injure and maim with his strikes and kicks.

CRod’s youth advantage is real in this fight for he is eight years the younger fighter in this one and will look t5o use his wrestling chops to gain the upper hand.

Amil returns off of some form of injury/malady that affected him in his last couple of fights, both losses to very competent UFC talent and he has vowed to make this fight look much different than his last two.

It’s my opinion that the pricing on this fight is based on CRod’s last couple of off performances and against what I regard as more stringent competition than Amil has faced.

That stated, Amil’s pressure, his power and his bounce post injury may be just the combination he needs to enter this fight and get his hand raised against a fighter in Rodriguez that will struggle to maintain equilibrium on the feet and will try to turn this into a wrestling match.

Amil is a points position. ‘Bout Business for all my final releases Friday.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -175

Vinicius Oliviera -285 vs. Andre Fili +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Fili is a decade’s long UFC talent who holds a 13-12-1 record in the organization.

At thirty  five, many think Fili to be past his prime however based on the performance he put on in his last fight I would have to say that Fili’s talent and fight game is not waning and in fact I find him to be most dangerous in this spot.

He’ll be the more experienced fighter, as well one who is comfortable vying with fighters weighing up to 160lbs. come fight night as most featherweights do.

Fili’s experience, who he has been in against, and his well rounded fight arsenal are more than enough to protect a chin that has been compromised over the course of his duration the UFC.

In Brazil’s Oliviera we have a basic bully.

He’s wildly athletic but that does not translate to precision striking and dedication to plan rather he is explosive but wild and when challenged like in his last fight he can crumple under the pressure.

Oliviera is stepping up from 135lbs bantamweight into the larger featherweight division and despite the difference in physique and athleticism, this has the perfect making to be a great ‘welcome to the featherweight division’ greeting from Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili.

Fili +235 

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Pick-em

Fili Decision for those looking for maximize opportunity. That line is not yet posted.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. We’re white hot after a huge night last week at UFC Freedom 250 so give a listen!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC Freedom 250: Sunday Bloody Sunday

UFC Freedom 250 is a seven bout card to be held on America’s White House lawn.

This event begins at 5pm SUNDAY 6-15 and features two world title fights (one an interim title) and five other battles. Each bout except one features ranked fighters competing against one another.

This card was created to offer fans seven violence packed fights as each individual matchup features some of the UFC’s most prolific finishers.

Five of the seven freedom fights are lined with a favorite at -300 or above so navigating live underdogs may be somewhat treacherous but that will not stop me.

The Perriera vs. Gane heavyweight battle and Lopes vs. Garcia bout are tightly lined and have the potential to be epic matchups featuring world class athletes looking to earn a 1m dollar bonus offered by the UFC.

Know however that there will be competition for that 1m bonus as every athlete on the card is sure to sell out in order to accrue that bonus.

This week I’ll make brief observations on each of the seven bouts on this slate, and we’ll got from the bottom up.

Diego Lopes -165 vs. Stevie Garcia +145 Featherweight (145lbs.)

In May of 2023 Lopes showed up for a debut fight on short notice against a top three ranked killer in Mosvar Evloev. Lopes battled the world class grappling talent to a decision loss. After than fight Lopes was recognized as a top five featherweight.

Lopes has become a UFC favorite since he took that short notice fight and has exemplified the fact that fighters who take on uncomfortable and risky fights or fights on short notice quickly earn favoritism with the UFC. Lopes is the poster boy for that relationship.

Lopes was given many fight opportunities post Evloev, and he has knocked down all competition save for two losses against current champion Alexander Volkanovski where Lopes was dominated by the champion in one sided fights.

This is a monumental opportunity for Lopes as he is still being repaid for that short notice fight with Evloev. He now earns at the top of his division and with a win here Lopes can maintain his legitimacy as a championship contender at 145lbs.

In Stevie Garcia we have a fighter who trains at Jackson-Winklejohn in Albuquerque. Garcia is going to be privy to holding some physical advantages over Lopes in this bout. He will be the taller fighter holding a three inch reach advantage which in stand up fights delivers advantage.

Now Garcia has not faced the level of competition that Lopes has but Gacia does enter this fight on the momentum of having won his last seven bouts, six via finish and the seventh against Cal Katter via dominant striking. He also arrives rested and ready to fire fresh.

Lopes opened -300 for this fight which was a poor opening number. That price has now moved to Lopes -165 vs. Garcia +145 which is a more practical depiction of how this fight should be priced in my judgement.

This fight is going to be total chaos as both men want to stand, both want to plant their feet and both want to throw power strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees upon each other with the sole intent of rendering the other unconscious.

Key to this fight in my judgement is Lopes high level of fight activity and against elite competition for this will be his fourth fight in fourteen months. He’s prepared for Champion Volkanovski twice (and was drubbed in each) with a bout against Jean Silva placed in between. This is a lot of time spent in the gym with little rest for the weaponry of late.

To take a fight now after the diligence of those three camps then the attrition he undertook in each fight, forces me to believe that Lopes could be just a step off come Sunday.

Lopes has earned favorite status in this fight but Garcia’s size, length, and the fact he enters this fight riding tremendous momentum forces me to believe that somewhere along the line and most likely early, Garcia will be able to find Lopes as Lopes navigates his way inside the pocket to hurl.

Garcia +145

is the release however I’ll remain patient as more price advantage may be coming Garcia’s way as the fight nears. I’ll advise watching this line closely and when it reaches +150 or better….FIRE.

Bo Nickal -365 vs. Kyle Daukaus +300 Middleweight (185lbs.)

Daukaus, a BJJ black belt and a Muay Thai purple belt is a fighter now competing in his second stint in the UFC. This second stint was earned as Daukaus is a capable fighter albeit not one who will ever scratch the top ten of the division in my humble estimation.

2-0 since his return to the UFC Daukaus has been working diligently on his BJJ and wrestling which is timely as he will be in the cage against a world class, elite wrestler this Sunday.

In Bo Nickal, a D1 NCAA champion wrestler who holds a purple belt in BJJ. He is a pedigreed world class talent who arrives with an elite level of wrestling and a history of success in every endeavor he has ventured in when it comes to sports competition.

Nickal’s still raw as a UFC fighter and that was displayed clearly in his fight against Renier de Ritter where he was so fatigued that he was unable to get off the stool for round three.

Needless to say that was a learning experience for Nickal as well a motivational opportunity because the MMA world hurled aggressive displeasure at the wrestler after that performance.

Nickal came back from that embarrassment against RDR and finished Brazilian Rodolpho Viera with a third round head kick in his last fight which provided him this opportunity.

It’s my belief that Daukaus is in this fight to catapult Nickal and his career forward. We know the UFC would like to see Nickal win and they’ve provided a great showcase for him to do just that. The question is…will Daukaus cooperate?

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -150

Strong lean over

Maricio Ruffy -710 vs. Michael Chandler +580 Lightweight mismatch

Michael Chandler is now forty years of age, but he is a world class wrestling talent with a black belt in BJJ to supplement his ultra-aggressive forward pressing power striking offense.

Chandler’s aggression is always on display and often times at the expense of his fight IQ and defense for he fights like a boxer despite the fact that he is an accomplished wrestler.

In this fight, the UFC has Chandler in there for two purposes; One, to be a willing partner to the absolute razor blade that is Mauricio Ruffy and second to allow Ruffy to retire the wily veteran, so the UFC does not have to.

Ruffy, a former fighting nerd now training is Australia is a clairvoyant power striker. His length, his diversity of power striking/kicking and his aggression have established him as a legitimate threat to the top three of the division since he entered the UFC.

This will be a fight that revolves around distance for Chandler absolutely must NOT allow Ruffy to maneuver in it yet the paradox in that is that Chandler must find a way to enter the pocket to either engage in striking or initiate his wrestling.

Both carry high risk against this finisher as this is another example of the UFC looking to catapult a vicious striker up the rankings to create more money fights down the line with other stalwarts in the top five of the division.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -140

Sean O’Malley -350 vs. Aiemann Zahabi +300 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Zahabi, brother to Firas who owns TriStar Gym in Canada is a fighter with tremendous momentum entering this fight.

A black belt in BJJ and solid wrestling chops provide Zahabi with the tools required to engage opponents while simultaneously wearing them out with his unrelenting pressure.

Since 2021 Zahabi has won seven fights, five via decision so it’s clear his cardio, his wrestling and his cage IQ provide him advantage over many however his striking, while refined is powerless.

In Sean O’Malley we have a fighter that delivers tremendous eyeballs to the UFC, so he is treated with favoritism, care, and in this fight he is gifted with an advantageous matchup as he is taller, longer, younger, and well more skilled than his Canadian counterpart.

O’Malley’s a deft moving striker with flamboyant and diverse striking delivery as well he has been grinding on his BJJ/wrestling for years.

Despite the fact that he is unable to compete in grappling against the likes of the Dvalishvili’s and Yan’s of the division, O’Malley is more than equipped enough to fend off the advances of Zahabi and manipulate this fight into a stand up, distance striking display that clearly favors Suga Sean.

This is a set up fight to thrust O’Mally into another headline position in an upcoming card. Remember fight fans, today’s UFC is about violence and ratings!

The UFC is able to ‘manicure’ results by the way they matchmake, in this one they’re telling us that they yearn for O’Malley (and his drawing power) to continue to win fights, sell tickets and allow the UFC to earn from its promotion of the ‘Suga’ show.

Cyril Gane -1155 vs. Alex Pereira -105 Heavyweight Interim Title

Gane, who is mighty athletic, nimble on the feet and country strong comes into this interim title with a decorated Muay Thai transcript where he retired with a 13-0-0 tally.

Gane has tremendous strike evasion skill however he possesses little to no wrestling or BJJ acumen as we witnessed when Jon Jones rubbed him all over the canvas a few years back.

Gane has not competed since September of last year when he blatantly poked Tom Aspinal in the eye and that fight was stopped in the early first round. Gane and his teammates poking opponents in the eye is not an accident fight fans.

As an aside, poking opponents in the eye is a dynamic advantage in fights. Many fighters and even fight camps (the MMA Factory in Paris, Gane’s gym is the most notorious for employing this tactic) utilize the tactic religiously.

Gane and fellow Factory team member Nassourdine Imavov are experts at the practice, one which I believe is encouraged in camp…especially since the UFC has shown no willingness to offer any deterrent for the action.

Gane’s fighting forte’ is striking and using movement to create angles for his strikes kicks, and of course…..pokes. His athleticism must not be underappreciated as well how he is able to expend energy as a 265 pound athlete.

With Pereira, we have a fighter who the UFC and Dana White yearn to win, for with a victory the UFC principal will try to shove Jon Jones into the closet by proclaiming Alex as the new modern UFC ‘GOAT’ should he step up into this heavyweight challenge and win this interim title.

Periera himself is world class in all aspects of striking, boxing, and kickboxing. He is simply a striking savant. His experience in elite competition in the Kickboxing world trumps Gane’s kickboxing body of work in comprehensive fashion.

Pereira’s kicks are bludgeoning and the power he packs in his strikes, knees and elbows has carried through the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions, but this is now heavyweight and the men here are 265lbs.

Sure, early on the Periera power is bound to be profuse however, how will the size, girth, and athleticism of Gane affect Pereira over rounds and at this new weight class? These are the fundamental questions that must addressed before committing to any side in this fight.

While on the surface it may appear that these two will tussle on the feet I can assure fight fans that if there is any advantage in the grappling/wrestling, that it is Pereira that would own that advantage and in relative strong fashion.

He has been training with Glover Teixeira for better than five years now and while world class wrestling is not something one can master in five years, I can most assuredly state that if this fight finds itself on the floor,  then it would be Periera who would hold great advantage over Gane.

On the VSiN ‘By the Books’ program I released two parlays tied to this fight over the course of the last two weeks, they are as follows:

-Yadong -600/Pavlovich -600/Periera -110 +170     2.0u returns 3.40u

-Brendan Allen -195/Gane -112 +185                            2.0u returns 3.70u

Through the ability to parlay ahead in fights on DraftKings, VSiN listeners now hold a guaranteed profit in this co main event fight. A fight by the way that I really have no idea how it will go!

Total in this co main event is 2.5Rds over -240

Strong lean over

Ilya Topuria -600 vs. Justin Gaethje +500 Lightweight (155lbs.) Title

Topuria is an anomaly.

The guy is small for this weight class yet his striking power and precision, coupled with his ability to evade strikes is matched only by his preparation and execution in fights.

Nimble footwork helps him maintain excellent defense for Topuria evades damage effectively, but his diversified weaponry make him a threat no matter where a fight transitions. Striking, BJJ, wrestling and evasion of strikes Topuria is dominant at each.

Topuria sports a positive 1.0 significant strike advantage per minute of fight time as well he is near impossible to take down. Meanwhile he realizes an average of two takedowns per fifteen minutes of fight time.

Topuria the fighter has devastated current champions in the organization as if they were but MMA neophytes and now he steps into this high profile opportunity. To be a Spaniard entering the US to take on one of its own rugged, worthy and most dangerous red, white, and blue American in Justin Gaethje is a challenge Topuria yearned for despite the fact that he and the organization thought they were setting up a Topuria Paddy Pimlett matchup!.

Topuria will be the much smaller man in the cage Sunday, but he’ll be eight years the younger man also. With that youth comes fleet footedness, strike evasion, and the ability to hit and run.

For Gaethje, we’re talking about a warrior who arrived to the UFC with a world class wrestling ability, yet he competed in fights as if he never practiced wrestling a day in his life. Sure Gaethje employs some aspects of wrestling in his fights, but Gaethje does not come to hug and kiss nor rattle and roll. Gaethje comes to kill or be killed and that’s exactly what’s going to play out here.

The logical fight handicappers will be unable to overcome the vast momentum and the mixed martial arts advantages Topuria possesses.

Others, so very few others, will try to hitch one last ride on the old mule who has delivered profitability in his fights for bettors for close to a decade in this organization.

Yes Gaethje is at the end of his career but there is little way he does not come out and attempt to give his best for himself, his family and as an American representing the USA.

Funny things occur in fights and while the tsunami of money is rolling in on Topuria, I for one will be making some form of modest position on Gaethje Sunday night to slap the smug from this Spaniard.

Remember Ronda Roussey was unbeatable until Holly Holm’ed her and Merab Dvalishvili was the machine until Petr Yan threw a monkey rensch into his machinery so upsets can happen….. will one happen Sunday on the White House Lawn?

Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -150

Lean over

Friday afternoon the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop across all podcast platforms and on the GambLou.com webpage.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast: UFC Muhammad vs. Bonfim releases

Fight Enthusiasts

Forgive me for having to post this week’s ‘Bout Business Podcast on the webpage.

The GambLou.com webpage does add a tremendous amount of flexibility when something goes unexpected or haywire around GambLou World HQ.

In any case, no breakdowns this week only releases and I’ll update all future wagers etc. next week when the BBP returns.

In last week’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ podcast we made the following parlay wager that is alive into the White House card:

Yadong/Pavlovich/Pereira +160 2u for 3.2u

Now let’s add this:

Allen -185 parlay to Gane -118 2u

Gane fights next week at the White House card

That parlay returns +185 so our wager is 2u for 3.90u.

Should Allen win (and I believe he does very well in this matchup despite the market moves to Edmen) then we will own Perriera for 2.0u to earn 3.20u AND Gane 2.0u to earn 3.90u.

Brendan Allen is going to ground Shahbazyan early then dominate…

Let’s earn:

Muhammad -110 2u

Chairez +115 1u

McGhee -455 parlay to Luna +110 1u returns 1.57u

That’s four wagers with an investment of 6u. LFG!

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC LV118 Muhammad vs. Bonfim: Belal bottom blues

The Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas is the host for this week’s UFC Fight Night event.

The fight slate consists of twelve fights to be waged in the Apex’s 25’ octagon and in front of a limited group of attendees.

Of the twelve fights, seven take place at 115, 125 and 135 pounds and only three will be waged at weight classes 170lbs and above.

It’s becoming clear that APEX events host lesser know personalities and smaller bodied fighters which surely, by the numbers reduces the opportunity for violent finishes.

There are nine US fighters populating the card with thirteen athletes having to travel into the states from out of the country. Three fights do feature a fighter from the US who competes against a combatant that must travel into the USA in order to cut weight then compete.

Main event participant Belal Muhammad, Jordan Leavitt, and Chelsea Chandler are the fighters holding some home advantage as each of their foes must travel in from Brazil in order to compete. Advantage US athletes.

Last week we used Alex Perez in his fight against Su Mudaerji as a slight chalk, but the bout was stopped after a damaging kick to the jewels by Su rendered Perez unable to continue.

We’ll tote our momentum forward into this slate of battles.

Belal Muhammad -125 vs. Gabriel Bonfim +105 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Bonfim, one of two brothers competing in the UFC is a fighter with complete skills though no belts, ribbons, or accolades.

Bonfim is a power striker/kicker who is athletic, fluid afoot and highly dangerous for he packs profuse power behind his strikes, kicks, elbows, and knees.

In this battle Bonfim will hold a substantial eight year youth advantage to go with his height and leg reach edge. Bonfim’s grappling/wrestling is pronounced and together with his aggression/size/power makes him a matchup nightmare for almost every welterweight on the roster.

In former champion Belal Muhammad we have a world class wrestling talent. Muhammad has lost his last two fights to Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, but he was competitive in each despite the fact that he fought an unintelligent title fight against JDM choosing to strike with a striker as opposed to grinding him out on the canvas with his advance wrestling ability.

In his fight against Machado Garry, Muhammad was simply unable to catch up to the nimble, deft moving Irishman. When forging forward in his deliberate unrelenting wrestling style Muhammad can make a strong motivated adversary eventually look overwhelmed, lost, weak and timid.

When the bell for this fight rings I look for Muhammad, who has not competed in the cage since November of 2025 to immediately turn to his advantage in almost any matchup….his wrestling.

As I have mentioned several times in this column, world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ and while Bonfim is hardly a world class jiu-Jitsu specialist he does fold the specialty into his power striking.

Bonfim will to strive to maintain appropriate distance in order to unleash power hooks, crosses, and knees onto Muhammad as Muhammad forcefully grinds his way inside the pocket to engage in his wrestling.

Muhammad must be able to persevere his way through the furious early Bonfim fire of fisticuff  in the early stages of this fight for that is when Bonfim’s ferocity and striking acumen are most effective.

When Muhammad manages this bout into the third round and beyond we will witness a change of dominance for Bonfim’s burst will begin to wane while the Muhammad’s forward pressure and top control will transition this fight from a relatively competitive one to a relatively noncompetitive one for Muhammad’s ultimate advantage is his ability to never tire and become more forceful as the fight extends.

Yes Muhammad is thirty-seven and giving up eight years to this young Bonfim bomber, but Muhammad’s cardio, his wrestling and his mental strength are all world class assets that will allow him to separate himself from Bonfim as this fight enters the third round and beyond.

This is a terrific spot for Belal Muhammad

Muhammad -120 2u

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -190

Strong lean Over especially if lined 3.5Rds.

Brendan Allen -220 vs. Edmen Shabazyan +180 Middleweight (185lbs.) co main

Shahbazyan, a Black belt in Shotokan Karate is a power striker who trains in Las Vegas at Extreme Couture.

Shahbazyan is tall for the weight class and though he is ill equipped to deal with adversaries displaying world class wrestling/grappling he is well armed to undergo slugfests that take place on the feet as his height, reach and distance control are exemplary.

In Brendan Allen we have a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Allen is well balanced as a fighter, but his striking is not to the level of his world class grappling. When Allen chooses to transition his fights from feet to floor his results are outstanding.

When Allen is unable to transition bouts to the basement then his elementary striking becomes an obstacle to overcome. His 47% strike defense and negative strike differential per minute of fighting exemplify the need for Allen to immediately engage in the clinch then transition fights to the floor.

So in this battle we have a striker with relatively inept grappling/wrestling skill taking on a fighter in Allen who is average on the feet but world class on the mat.

Once this fight begins it will be Shahbazyan who will look to touch up the feisty Allen as he works his way into the pocket to clasp.

Meanwhile Allen will look to tackle Shabaz an and ground him as soon a practically possible for on the floor and even worse, off his back Shahbazyan is no match for Allen.

Allen’s been training in elevation with Trevor Whittman in Denver, which is a direct tell that he is working diligently to improve his striking as well continue to develop his cardio.

This is a great spot for Brendan Allen who will control this fight in the second and third rounds by utilizing his grappling prowess, he just needs to manage that first round when Shahbazyan comes out fists flying!.

Allen opened -350 and Shahbazyan money has moved the line to its current price of Brendan Allen -220.

As Roger Dalty sang for the Who, ” I call that a bargain.”

Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -185 as well there are some 2.5 Under -165 in the market. Over 1.5 seems a sound consideration.

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms; we’ve been on fire lately. Catch the final releases for this card there or at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the

Gamblou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, Investment Intel, Profitability

Puck Profitability posted

Here are GambLou Puck Passion results to date with all future wagers listed:

To date:  37-30  +7.42u 19% ROI

Open Futures:

Carolina to win East  5.2u to earn 2.0u

Carolina Cup +155  2.0u to earn 3.10u

Golden Knights Cup +210  2u to earn 4.20u

The above numbers include the recent Wedgewood and McKinnon Conn Smythe losses.

Conn Smythe releases that remain active:

Stankoven 19/1    .20u

Hart 75/1              .10u

Freddy 19/1           .20u

Marner 12/1           .25u

Dobes 18/1              .20u

next puck drop is Friday 5pm PST

GambLou.com

It’s Business

 

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

McGregor returns? Not so fast my friends!

So Max Holloway is going to be rewarded for his company loyalty by being privy to the payday associated with fighting Conor McGregor.

While on the surface this is exciting news to many, the reality is that there are serious unknowns leading into this proposed fight and most of the risk and penalty will be borne by Holloway, then the UFC and finally the fans.

Let me explain.

McGregor has not fought competitively since 2021 and then he was a 155 pound lightweight.

Since that last competition McGregor has pleased us with the following public spectacles:

In 2018 at UFC 223 he attacked a bus full of fighters, then followed that up with assault/rape charges in 2019, 2021 and 2023. Later in 2023 another famed incident with the Miami Heat mascot gained the manically McGregor more dubious fame and notoriety.

McGregor’s erratic behavior, his slathering appearances when in public as well some unsolicited nude photo charges in 2025 paint the picture of a man who was born with nothing but talent, who then skyrockets into fame and riches on said talent then self-destructs on the excess that his natural physical gifts brought him.

Now the UFC needs a spark, and they turn to the magic money elixir that is McGregor.

The question I pose is this: who knows how serious McGregor takes this fight?

It’s scheduled for 170lbs. but who is to say that upon the last days of the fight that McGregor’s lifestyle and moxie don’t allow him to roll into this fight at 178 or 180lbs thus forcing Max, the ever professional company man already stretching to take this fight at 170 into even further disadvantage by trying to compete above the 170 pounds where he has never really competed before.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the UFC is selling it’s soul to please stakeholders and they’ll pull anything to get a leg up…..even taking advantage of a naïve fan base to sell them a ‘name’ as opposed to a legitimate athlete that can compete effectively in the cage.

For Max Holloway I only hope McGregor honors what he says and commits to, but I have seen this movie before, and I will believe this fight takes place at 170lbs as scheduled only upon seeing it.

Betting this fight under the assumption that it takes place at 170lbs. is a foolish endeavor people.

I advise waiting and watching the leadup to this bout because the dynamic that happens in the prefight weeks will more than likely overshadow what happens on fight night when an overserved and underprepared McGregor steps into the cage.

I absolutely do not believe this fight takes place at 170lbs. but if it does I’ll likely be very active in my approach to betting this bout.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC

UFC LV117 Allen vs. Costa: Palomino club’d?

After a stunning UFC 328, the Meta APEX hosts this week’s LV 117, an event populated with thirteen bouts and featuring a highly international set of athletes.

Sixteen Foreign fighters from thirteen varying counties arrive to compete in the smaller APEX octagon in front of a diminutive gathering of fans.

There are only a couple of slight age differences in these matchups as well there exist only four battles with combatants weighing 170lbs. or above so this fight card may feature fighters with a bit more skill than power.

Last week this column went 1-1 for a half unit win….we march on this week with the understanding that next week the UFC takes a break before traveling to Macao for the Yadong vs. Figueiredo fight slate.

 

Arnold Allen -160 vs. Melquizael Costa +140 Featherweight (145lbs.) main event

Twelfth ranked Costa trains at world famous ‘Chute Boxe’ fight club in Brazil. A brown belt in BJJ with a black belt in Muay Thai, Costa brings a combination of physical size, mixed martial arts expertise, and tremendous momentum into this bout.

Costa bumbled to a 1-2 UFC tally before winning his last six fights and against a set of UFC adversary that was stepped up for each new battle.

Costa is a southpaw with a diversity of attack, an aggressive nature and finishing ability as four of his seven victories in the UFC have come via finish including his last which was an impressive TKO over Dan Ige, a man who had never been finished prior.

Costa, twenty-nine is in the prime of his career and he is rolling into this fight with tremendous belief and swagger.

In the opposing corner of the octagon stands seventh ranked featherweight Arnold Allen.

Allen, an Englishman now training at Tristar gym in Montreal is an equipped wrestling talent with sound striking skill won his first nine bouts in the UFC however, in his last four he is 1-3.

A closer look at those last four Allen fights shows that his losses were all competitively fought and against elite top five ranked athletes in the division Holloway, Silva, and Evloev.

This fight opened a dead pick-em but by yesterday (Monday 5-11) the widespread price on Allen stood -190, today his price is -165.

We may be seeing public money (via the recency bias attached to Costa) arrive for the Brazilian as he has been dynamic lately while Allen’s results against the absolute elite in this division may be offering us a discount on the more experienced athlete/fighter.

Allen’s wrestling, his base form of fighting will expose Costa’s BJJ but how these two fair on the feet should be worthy of watching. It’s my take that Costa will attempt to use his height/reach in a stand up affair while Allen will want to tackle the Brazilian and gain top control in order to hold dominance in this fight.

Allen -160 is a buy now however those who choose to monitor this line closely may be able to gain a few extra cents on the Allen price by waiting and monitoring which is exactly what I will do so grab Allen -165 or better and good luck!

Allen is now -130 I hope you readers waited!!!

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -150

Strong lean Over

Khaos Williams -130 vs. Nicolay Veretennikov +110 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Khaos Williams is 2-2 in his last four bouts, he’s lost his last two fights and now looks to try to bounce back after a disappointing defeat to ultra short notice replacement athlete Andreas Gustaffson in June of last year.

Williams packs great power in his strikes/kicks, but his strike defense has earned him a negative significant strike advantage of .45 significant strikes per minute of fight time. Williams is a furious paced fighter who hurls hammers but unfortunately accepts incoming fire also.

A blue belt in BJJ, Williams holds very little wrestling acumen as evidenced by his zero percent take down statistic and his 51% take down defense. I might add that in his last several fights Williams has not had to compete against anyone known to hold heavy or even moderate wrestling ability so 51% is very concerning.

In to fight Williams is Russian vice grip wrestler/striker Veretennikov fighting out of Kings MMA in California, so travel is not a factor for the Russian in this fight.

Veretennikov is going to be giving away slight reach to the power striking Williams, but he is the taller fighter, he is older by four years as well he arrives off and impressive win over journeyman fighter Nico Price.

Veritennikov sports a negative significant strike differential per minute also while throwing less volume than his adversary Williams, so we have a couple fighters who attack but also receive!

Wrestling may well be the difference in this fight as Williams struggles when fights hit the floor especially if he is underneath and Veretennikov shows up to this battle equipped with that formidable Russian wrestling/sambo base, solid striking ability, and great durability.

Should Williams be able to manipulate this fight into a standing affair then it is my judgement that the fight will be ultra close however, Veretennikov’s wrestling, his forceful, forward pressure and take down dominance, all highly underrated, will be of central importance in keeping him in control of this bout.

Both of these men need a win desperately and both are on the cusp of the organization so we will witness two motivated, focused, men compete to the depths of their souls utilizing every skill available to them to get their arm raised in victory.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -165

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast (awarded as one of the top 25 MMA podcasts recently) drops across all podcast platforms and is available at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy LV 117.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

UFC 328 Strickland vs. Chimaev: Chechen choke?

This week Newark, NJ hosts UFC 328, a thirteen fight event utilizing the large octagon in front of some of New Jersey’s finest fight fanatics.

Seven of the thirteen bouts will be waged between men weighing 170lbs. and larger. Those large men provide the highest finish rates to be found in the organization.

Name recognition and dynamic stylistic matchups await viewers. The production’s early prelims begin at 2pm PST, preliminary actions starts at 4pm PST then finally the main card which drops at 5pm PST.

Six US fighters hold the advantage of facing an athlete that must travel into the states to compete, as well there are three bouts where the youth advantage is greater than 6 years presenting those athletes with a 65% win rate.

Digital results (8-9-1 -2.0u) took a unit hit last week as my release of Jack Della Maddalena was a disaster. That was as large a miss as I can recall making.

Time to bounce back.

Khamzat Chimaev -600 vs. Sean Strickland +470 Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Middleweight champion Chimaev is a three-time Swedish national champion in freestyle wrestling. He is also decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Chimaev has competed in and dominated two division’s in the UFC and threatens to make it three.

This Russian gangster is incredibly strong, his unrelenting, forceful forward aggression is admired by other decorated world class wrestlers/grapplers, and his striking is slowly beginning to evolve though he does not need to employ that aspect of MMA into his repertoire simply because no one can stop his dominant pressure wrestling.  

Inactivity and cardio are the only critiques one may thrust upon Chimaev as he has struggled in the past with visas and access into the USA which covers his inactivity.

Past fights with welterweights (170lbs.) Gil Burns and Kamaru Usman lead me to believe that Chimaev’s gas tank could be suspect as Burns and Usman both are welterweight athletes that forced Chimaev into decision fights.  

Number three ranked and former middleweight champion Sean Strickland is Chimaev’s foe this weekend and it should be added that these two have trained together prior just to add some depth and a sprinkle of hatred to this matchup.

Strickland is the only fighter on the UFC roster that can match the maniacal behavior/process of Chimaev both inside and outside of the cage. Strickland’s the well more versed mixed martial artist between these two as his striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio are all developed and complete.

Strickland, who is a full grown middleweight fighter, will strive to keep the blitzing Chimaev at bay with movement, take down defense and his own brand of fists, elbows, and occasional kicks.

Strickland’s focus will be to compete with Chimaev for the first two rounds of this fight with the goal of forcing Chimaev to expend his cardio/energy. If Strickland can weather the first ten minutes of this battle then he may get to turn the tables on Chimaev, a fighter who is known to slow as fights progress.

At the bell for round three, Chimaev will have to deal for another three rounds with a threat in Strickland who can actually get stronger as this fight progresses.  

Chimaev opened -400 for this fight and it’s my judgement that this fight will be well more competitive than any we have seen Chimaev undertake simply because of Stricklands fortitude, his natural middleweight body size, and his ability to out crazy anyone in the organization including Chimaev. .

Strickland’s going to need to weather a furious first two rounds then he’ll look to turn the tables on this monster and bully this bully.

Chimaev has the reputation of being a devastator but those Usman and Burns fights tell me that Strickland has everything he needs to be able to compete with this man on par.

Many fight pundits suspect that Strickland is simply Chimaev’s next victim, and that may be the case, but I find it also quite plausible that Strickland, a guy completely unafraid of anything will be able to reproduce that effort his last fight out against Fluffy Hernandez.

With that type of performance, Strickland can not only compete with Chimaev but take this fight well into the deep championship waters. There is surely a path for Strickland winning this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120 FanDuel

Over 2.5Rds. 2.40u to earn 2.0u

Tatsuro Taira -160 vs. Joshua Van +140 Flyweight (125lbs.) title

Van, twenty-four is a highly athletic volume striker who has cage intelligence, deft footwork, precision striking and an abundance of power in his strikes.

A blue belt in BJJ Van’s grappling and wrestling are mainly unpronounced as he does his talking with his hands and on his feet for Josh Van has a combination of athleticism, speed, precision, and bad intention in everything he throws upon opponents. Van is a gifted striker indeed.

In Tatsuru Taira we have a Japanese grappler extraordinaire decorated with a purple belt in BJJ. Taira’s going to be the taller, longer athlete in the cage who will also hold a five inch reach advantage.

Taira’s blueprint for success revolves around him taking Van to the canvas while Van’s focus will be to absolutely keep this fight standing.

At the end of the day Taira, twenty-six and gaining momentum with each fight will get Van to the floor and when that occurs it will mark the beginning of the end of this fight as I handicap it.

Taira opened -185 so I’ll gladly take the discount being offered on him currently.

Taira -160 1u

Bobby King Green -300 vs. Jeremy Stephens +250 (Lightweight 155lbs.)

Forty year old Jeramy Stephens arrives to Newark to participate in an epic battle that should have been waged years ago. Stephens, a purple belt in BJJ employs little BJJ in his fights for Stephens is a single mindedly focused finisher who used the bludgeoning effect of his elbow, fists, and kicks to demolish opponents.

Stephens has twenty nine career victories of which twenty-one have come via finish.

Stephens’ power and aggression remains but his footwork, strike evasion and cardio have long since left him. He’ll look to win this battle via the KO.

In King Green we have a thirty-nine year old adversary to Stephens who while on par with Stephens on age, far exceeds him when it comes to athleticism, fleet footedness, strike evasion, and precision striking.

Green does not possess the natural striking power of Stephens but as far as every other measurable aspect of mixed martial arts, Green’s fighting acumen eclipses Stephens.

This should be an exciting fight that will resemble a bull fight with King Green as matador and Stephens as the raging bull.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Lean over

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops. Catch it across all podcast platforms on at GambLou.com

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s ‘Bout Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC

‘Bout Business Podcast final releases

Due to a personal situation, I will be unable to record this week’s ‘Bout Business Podcast for UFC Perth.

The Good news however is that my final releases may be accessed by continuing to read this column. Having a webpage for backup is really nice for unfortunate situations like this.

I’ll cover Future bets next week. Balance to date is 21-37 -9.36 but we hold a multi unit open parlay to Chimaev at +100 as well a 2.39u potential return on a fight this week.

Here are the releases:

JDM 1.60u to return 2.39u he is the second leg of two different parlays where the first leg of each bet won.

Parlay: Steele -175/Malkoun -3.5pts -425; 1.05u to earn 1.0u

Parlay: Shamil Gaziev +3.5 +100/Josh Hokit -310 (upcoming white house card) 1u returns 1.65u

Parlay: Dariush/Salkilld starts 2 -125 to JDM/Prates starts round 2 -700 1.0u returns 1.06u

4.65u invested for potential 6.10u

LFG!