The UFC Meta APEX hosts this week’s Fight Night event a fight slate that reached eleven bouts just last week with the addition of two matchups.

The APEX employs the smaller 25’ cage as well the venue holds only hundreds of fans.

Of the eleven bouts, four are competitions between athletes weighing 170lbs and above. That’s where finish rates are highest, it’s rewarding to get a couple of these bouts on this APEX card as the UFC seems to be evolving away from matching larger men in that small octagon/venue.

There are three bouts where an athlete from the USA faces an opponent that travels into the Country from abroad. Those fights will bear monitoring of the travelling athlete as well, their weight cut for travel does affect the weight and preparation of athletes.

Last week my supposed Serbian ‘hammer’ was in fact the ‘nail’ as journeyman mixed martial artist Gil Urbina knocked out local fighter Vlasto Cepo in one round. Onward we journey!

Mateusz Gamrot +130 vs. Quillan Sallkild -150 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

I have been taught that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.

In this fight we have a young, tall, strong Aussie black belt in BJJ taking on a short sawed off Polish chain wrestler in a main event that should really be compelling.

Australian Quillan Salkilld ships in for this bout after winning a contender series fight then realizing a 5-0 tally in UFC completion.

Salkilld has great physical advantages in this fight as he is eleven years the younger man, and he hold reach, height, and leg length dominance.

Salkilld need to employ those physical attributes to this fight particularly in order for him to keep the forward pressing and unrelenting wrestling of Gamrot at distance. Distance will allow Salkilld to utilize his jab, fire straight right hands behind that jab then follow that combination up with a kick which must be executed from a safe distance.

While Salkilld is a decorated BJJ artist, he does not wish to foray on the floor with this vice grip of a wrestling talent in Gamrot. With that mentioned, Salkilld has earned a 7.25 takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time stat which is impressive even considering the lack of elite competition he has competed against.

While his resume shows that he has finished four of his five adversaries, a closer look shows that none of those opponents were/are ranked in the top fifteen of the division nor were they elite with unrelenting forward pressing wrestling.

In Mateusz Gamrot we get the prototypical unrelenting power wrestler.

Gamrot’s UFC resume is far more complete than Salkilld’s as well he has faced a far superior set of elite UFC lightweight competition, after all he is thirty-five.

Gamrot will need to ensure that he avoids Salkilld’s power early in this fight and upon his entry to clasp then take down the Aussie.  He will need to protect his neck in those take down attempts and not run into a choke. When he is able to engage, and when he drags this long, lanky finisher to the ground (a key for him in this fight) the fight for Gamrot will commence while the desperation to get off his back will compel the Aussie.

Gamrot’s seen and competed against short, tall, thin, and rotund strikers/wrestlers/grapplers prior while Salkilld’s first run in with an elite power wrestler of any body type will come Saturday.

This fight sets up to be competitive early but eventually the unrelenting pressure of Gamrot could begin to wear the long, tall Aussie down and eventually make him susceptible to the Gamrot control, ground and pound and damage.

After all, this is a substantial step up in class for Salkilld as well it is a five round fight, a first for Salkilld but not the first for Gamrot.

It’s my take that this will be a very competitive fight. Salkilld will need to pulverize Gamrot with elbows, fists and knees on his way to engage while Gamrot must fight this man from an inside the pocket position. Gamrot must be glue and affix himself on Salkilld in order to mute the Aussie’s offense and put him on the defense for Gamrot being forced to remain on the outside in this battle will be disaster to his chances of winning.

A great, competitive fight in a small cage. edge to wrestler?

Total in this fight: There are books with 3.5Rds. Over -125 as well there are books with 4.5Rds Under -135.

Strong Lean to Over 3.5

Alexia Thainara -240 vs. Amanda Lemos +205 Women’s strawweight (115lbs.)

Tenth ranked Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner who trains with the Ribas family. She is a developing fighter who is 3-0 in UFC competition facing only a nominally effective set of competition entering this fight.

Thainara holds a two inch reach advantage in this fight which means little as she is a grappler as opposed to an effective striker. She is also a whopping eleven years the younger fighter in this matchup.

At the turn of the year I pledged to quit chasing fighters six years (+/-) older than their opponent and it has paid dividends however, in this fight I must make an exception.

Eleven ranked Amanda Lemos, now thirty-nine has competed against the absolute elite of the strawweight division. She’s realized a 9-6 record over nine years of UFC competition.

Lemos is unlike most Brazilian fighters in that her grappling is underdeveloped while her striking aptitude, power, volume, and strike defense are elite. Lemos takes this fight knowing that with a loss she freefalls down the rankings and more than likely out of the top twenty of the division which spells doom for a thirty-nine year old.

So Thainara enters the most important fight of her life while Lemos does also!

Lemos’ experience and the level of competition faced force me to believe that she’ll manage the take down attempts put on her by Thainara then when this fight remains standing I judge Lemos to be in far superior position.

I expect Lemos to fight like a pit bull backed into a corner protecting a litter in this fight. She is NOT ready to ride off into the sunset rather, I believe she puts forth a highly effective game plan on her way to a decision victory.

Lemos +205

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my releases for this fight card there or go to Ga,nLou.com to access the podcast.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou

It’s Business

The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi UAE this weekend to export their brand to the fight frenetic Muslim world. Abu Dhabi is becoming a regular stop for the UFC as they attract great crowds for the events as well there is a business camaraderie between the leadership there and the UFC.

This event will utilize the large cage, and a full house will witness the intended violence. We have thirteen schedule bouts of which eight will be held in the higher weight classes of Welterweight on up. These larger men produce the highest finish rates in the UFC, so we witness the effort to export UFC violence to the UAE.

There are seven fights on this card where the favorite is lined at least -310, in essence bringing total wagerable fights (outside of props and totals) to eight bouts, there are also a handful of fights where there exists great advantage from a youth standpoint.

Understanding age, size, travel, and location of the fight slate is always foundational in my handicapping process.

Last week Jose Delgado +100 overcame a steamed prospect in Austin Bashi. Bashi was hit by the so called ‘sharp’ gambling people right before they dropped the puck on this fight moving Delgado into plus price territory. Delgado awarded Bashi his PhD. In MMA we tote a unit into our yearly bankroll.

Magomed Ankaleav -550 vs. Bogdan Guskov +430 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) main event

Ninth ranked light heavyweight Guskov steps in on relatively short notice to take advantage of the opportunity to climb the rankings with a victory over the number two ranked and former champion in Ankalaev.

Guskov takes the place of Kalil Roundtree, he enters this fight after a draw to former champion Jan Blachowicz after winning four straight bouts.

Guskov is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, a Master of Sport in MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Boxing. He is strong, determined and he utilizes a forward pressing attack where engagement with the opponent is mandatory for of Guskov’s eighteen wins, all are via finish.

That being stated, this is a substantial step up in class for Guskov, he too takes this opportunity on without the benefit of a full training camp.

Former champion Ankalaev, currently ranked number two in the division is also highly versed in fighting for he holds an International Master of Sport in Amateur MMA as well he’s earned a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo.

While most Russian fighters excel in grappling, sambo and wrestling Ankaleav utilizes more of a pressing striking and kicking attack to earn his wages. Of his twenty wins, ten have come via the KO and ten via decision. Unusually for a Russian athlete in the UFC, Ankalaev holds no wins via submission.

This fight makes out to be a war that will be waged on the feet for fifteen of Guskov’s victories in MMA have come via the KO/TKO while ten have come that way for Ankalaev. Ankalaev’s ten decision wins point more to the elite level of adversary he has competed against as opposed to any lack of finishing ability in my judgement.

Once this fight begins Ankalaev’s size, might and experience will be the tells against an athlete in Guskov who has been pressed into this opportunity based on UFC need as opposed to Guskov’s own merits.

This will be a one sided fight after a relatively competitive first round.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -155

As a handicapper, my analysis of this card is that it was put together with the sole purpose of serving a proud, financially active and involved Saudi demographic. I hate to state the obvious but the overwhelming mismatch fights on this card force the opportunity searching handicapper to have fewer fight to analyze for profit.

One consideration is to select four or five area combatants that are heavy chalk then throw them into a round robin and bet each in 2 and 3 team sets.

I however rarely bet that way so for our purposes let’s execute the following future parlay ourselves.

Main Event,

Ankalaev/Guskov starts Round 2 -250 To MacKenzie Dern -198; +110 (DraftKings)

(Dern fights 8-15 vs. Gillian Robertson)

Total in Ankalaev/Guskov Fight: 2.5 -145 Under

Nurullo Aliev -220 vs. Mike Davis +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)

Aliev is set up for shine in front of his peeps as he is a vice grip Tajikistani wrestling/sambo force entering this battle undefeated professionally at 11-0.

Should this fight go Aliev’s way we’ll witness the Tajik fighter take Davis down immediately then control him from top position on his way to an eventual decision or perhaps if lucky, a finish. That’s what many feel will occur in this fight.

Myself, I handicap a lethal, pent up fighting professional in Mike Davisa who’s wrestling is so much more acute than many understand to be like a coiled cobra in this situation.

He’s not had to utilize wrestling much because he sports hands or fury. He is a slick, competent power boxer along with holding underestimated wrestling acumen. That wrestling, specifically his take down defense must allow Davis to navigate this fight into the later rounds where his experience and technical striking ability will begin to produce effect.

Mike Davis is an underestimated razor blade and in a situation like this, I trust him to fight for my dollar.

Mike Davis +190

Total in this fight is not yet released, nor is the Points Handicap which is a betting tool I utilize religiously.

Friday when the ‘Bout Business Podcast comes out; I’ll highlight all my approaches to this fight and there are many.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights.

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

I drove up to Las Vegas for the weekend. Will be watching the fights at O’Aces with industry chaps Saturday night.

Let’s Fight:

Parlay: Ko -198/Du Plessis -215 1u returns 1.20u

Parlay: Delgado -110/Makhachev -340 2u returns 2.98u

Future Wager: Makhachev to be Welterweight Champion 12/31/26 -115  2.30u to earn 2.0u

Cannonier+3.5pts. +120 1.0u returns 1.20u

a very conservative approach this week.

This week’s UFC 329 is highlighted by the return of Conor McGregor who takes on Max Holloway in a rematch thirteen years in the making. Then they fought at 145lbs and Saturday their fight is ‘scheduled’ for 170lbs. in the welterweight division.

T-Mobile in Las Vegas will host the event that features fourteen bouts to be waged in the large thirty foot octagon and in front of a packed house.

Five fights feature athletes travelling into the states top compete against fighters from the USA, so home turf may offer advantage in those fights as well there are five fights that will be waged in the higher weight classes (170 lbs. and above) where finishes are more frequent than in the lower divisions.

Lastly, in a fight that will last less than 120 seconds, Gable Stevson makes his UFC debut, Stevenson is a world class Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling who will decimate the mannequin they have placed before him in that matchup. 

Time to make some hay!

Max Holloway -220 vs. Conor McGregor +190 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Thirteen years ago these two tussled at 145lbs. McGregor won in a decision against a young, skinny, green Max Holloway who was in his fourth UFC fight.

Flash forward to today and the paths each man has taken to get here are drastically different.

For McGregor, we understand the unique brilliance, the deft footwork, the power, and the simple mental majesty by which he overtook the featherweight division in the UFC then eventually the UFC as a whole.

However, despite the formidable body of work he left us with prior to this fight, it must be mentioned that Conor last fought five years ago which was his second devastating loss in a row to one Dustin Poirier, this time in in round one because of a broken bone in his leg.

McGregor’s last five years have been colorful to say the least. While out of the cage he’s rampaged through the headlines. His chronology is heavily marked by numerous episodes with the law, the courtroom as well he’s had to defend himself in the courtroom against many forms of accusation.

Further, and as importantly, in fighting history itself, one thing has proven to be an absolute fact, that once a man with little to no means is able to propel himself (or herself) through their own immense talent, diligence, and dedication to the pinnacle of the fighting profession that the attainment of that goal, once so foreign to them comes back to corrode them comprehensively because of what the fruits of their labor provide them.

Check fighting history, save for Umar Nurmagomedov and Rocky Marciano no other all time great fighters have been able to walk away from the ring or cage without compromising their own legacy.

It’s history.

Fighters need edge and desperation to gain their reputation.

What they must avoid and what truly corrodes their mind, body and eventually their skill is what the exact success that fighting provides them.

Private jet transportation, silk sheets, Veuve Clicquot and a yes to any question they ask. Yes, once fighters achieve their goal of attaining a title and beyond like McGregor had, then the real adversity begins.

McGregor is today’s textbook example of this. He’s now thirty-seven years old, has not fought in five years and comes in off two loses at that!

McGregor’s mind is sharp no doubt, but I assure you his body will not be able to execute what his mind will try to direct it to.

I expect McGregor to miss weight in this fight and do so on purpose for he is not only keenly unprofessional, but he also understands that the pressure to make this fight will be such that there is no way Max (who has never competed at any weight higher than 155lbs.) his camp or anyone involved with this production will allow the fight to be cancelled.

Yes, McGregor is mentally crafty, and that’s how he can play his mental warfare on Max by making him accept the fight at a weight class other than 170lbs. I believe this is exactly what McGregor will do as it is his way of gaining an edge.

His mind remembers but in the end, all his tricks and magic will not be able to save the thirty seven year old former addict from his trivial pursuit.

We must also take into consideration that Max Holloway has been active, he’s coming off bouts against Gaethje, Topuria, Poirier and Oliviera that absolute elite of the lightweight division.

Max has been competing; he will be able to carry the 170lbs. and carry it effectively into the later rounds of this fight because of his dedication and drive as well because he has stayed active in the game during these last five years while Conor was busy making headlines.

Once the bell for round one rings, McGregor will come out firing fresh, furious and with frenetic pace but he’ll have six and a half minutes to perform, for after that McGregor’s mind will realize what his abused body will be telling him…..that he is able to recall how to fight in world class fashion however that he is simply unable to physically execute that level of fighting any longer.

The mind remembers, but the body just can’t execute anymore.

Come Saturday night I believe Max Holloway will present the brash cocky Irishman a ‘Proper’ send off. 

Max Holloway via and KO/Sub/DQ -125 DraftKings

Total in this fight 2.5Rds Under -130

Strong lean Under

Cory Sandhagen -145 vs. Mario Bautista +125 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

Rematch!

This second go round for these two will be a much more competitive fight as then, Bautista took the fight against a ranked Sandhagen on short notice and as a debuting UFC athlete.

Fourth ranked bantamweight Sandhagen trains in Colorado’s elevation, he’s got a Taekwondo background supplemented with a brown belt in BJJ, but Sandhagen is also able to utilize his tall, long frame effectively on the feet for he is athletic and sports effective strike evasion to go with his diversity of strikes and kicks which he accrues via volume as opposed to power.

Sandhagen’s grappling is elite and he’s been in the octagon with the absolute elite of the division. Sandhagen is a legitimate top five athlete at bantamweight.

For the fifth ranked Bautista, this rematch has been the fight he has been yearning for over the course of the last several years. A black belt in BJJ with a foundation in wrestling and boxing, Bautista is your true diligent grinding Mexican fighter.

He has an iron will, a great diversity of offensive attack as well he sports solid wrestling acumen. Bautista is able to overwhelm opponents with his positive 1.32 significant strikes per minute then fold in his world class wrestling/grappling prowess (a trait of all MMALab athletes) into the mix.

Sandhagen will be the taller, longer man in the cage, but Bautista will be the more compact, powerful player. Bautista’s focus on stepping over Sandhagen has been simmering for the last seven years since they first competed and it will be the constant forward pressure that Bautista will apply to Sandhagen throughout this fight that will make the difference here.

This is a stellar opportunity for Bautista to snag Sandhagen’s shine and catapult himself up the rankings and make his case for a title opportunity.

The completeness of Bautista’s mixed martial arts weaponry and more specifically his pressure wrestling/grappling will ultimately separate him from Sandhagen in oh so competitive rematch.

Bautista +125

Total in this fight:  2.5Rds Over -275

This is a stellar fight card that has amazing matchups. For all of my final releases please check out the ‘Bout Business Podcast available anywhere you get your pod’s and at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the bouts!

GambLou.com

It’s Business