My Brother Shue, a big brother/role model since 1977 University of Arizona days, returns again this year to offer GambLou.com Nag enthusiasts angles on the fastest two minutes in sports, The Kentucky Derby.
Here’s the breakdown Shue (in black ink) sent with his permission to share!
Hey bro – here’s my take, almost final unless one of my nags bail, here we go:
First, there have been two defections, the #4, RODRIGUEZ and the #10, GRANDE have been scratched and BAEZA #21 is in and he will be ridden by Flavian Prat.
The track and weather for Louisville looks to be sloppy, just as it was for the Kentucky Oaks. We’ll need a hot pace in the Derby so in order for my closers to have a shot.
Attached are my final numbers for the Derby. (Shue included many charts which I did not publish in this column)
My opinion hasn’t changed since the PP draw – I’m still on #17 SANDMAN (6-1), but my fear with him, is that as he comes from almost dead last, and as he circles that final turn 8, 9 paths wide, he’ll be lugging in, as he likes to do, and perhaps get DQ’d a spot or two for interference.
#18 PUBLISHER (30-1) will effort to pass ten or so rivals to jet to the lead, and Steve Asmussen will win his first Kentucky Derby! (Shue’s met Steve Assmussen several times and is a big fan so take that with a grain o salt)
I also like #3 FINAL GAMBIT (30-1). Not a fan of synthetic to dirt, but he has, apparently, taken to the dirt pretty well. Although never really raced in ‘hot’ company before, just maybe sitting way back, he won’t be noticed and then Machado pushes the button on the final turn and off he goes. He could surprise for sure.
#8 JOURNALISM (3-1) will be in my exotics. You just cannot ignore his closing times. My worry on him is that in his last three races he’s only been in company with four other runners. And the Derby comes with mucho traffico! He will stalk the leaders IMO and stay close, hoping to get a smooth trip.
I am also going to include the #17, SOVERIGNTY. He is also a deep closer who has an excellent shot to win.
I think the pace will be hot, as in 22 & change if not quicker. I mean, there are literally 5 nags who like and need the front, the 1, 4, 5, 12 & 20, geez! No walking the dog up front on Saturday IMO.
For me, I take a cautious approach to trifecta’s on derby day so I’ll use a $1.00 6 nag Tri box for $120.00
3-7-8-14-17-18
Unlikely yet fun…
Thanks Shue, I love ya man