This week’s UFC LV87 production will take place at the APEX center in Las Vegas where the smaller 25’ cage will be utilized for athletes competing in front of just a handful of attendees.
Many feel that the lack of a packed house decreases excitement in UFC cards, though I am one who begs to differ. Any location that two motivated, focused, elite mixed martial artists decide to compete with one another is fine by me because fans do not make the fight, athletes especially in confined quarters do!
In the last two events, favorites have realized a 20-4 tally which manifests itself into bettors being affected by the ‘recency’ of favorite success. In a card where all but three bouts are lined with Favorites of -200 or greater, I look for select underdogs to be live….
Last week in Anaheim flyweight contender Brandon Royval upset former champion Brandon Moreno in a five round split decision that was not as close as the judging indicated.
My release of Royval/Moreno starts round 4 -175 earns digital fight enthusiasts another unit of profit. 2024 UFC profitability: 3-3 +1.85u
Shamil Gaziev -165 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik +145 heavyweight (265lbs) main event
Undefeated Dagestani Gaziev steps into this main event as an athlete with only one UFC bout under his belt, which is unusual.
He opened -160, has a couple of inches of height advantage in this bout as well he is going to be the athlete cutting weight to make the 266-pound weight maximum.
Gaziev’ past performances show a balance of finishing ability and stamina even though he’s faced only nominally talented foes. His one UFC win came over an athlete in Martin Buday who held experience over the Dagestani but who had faced journeyman competition himself.
Gaziev is regarded as favorite here because he’ shown the ability to grapple effectively and carry power in his hands based on his Buday finish.
‘Bigi Boi’ Rozenstruik enters this bout 7-5 in UFC competition defeating low level foes but being defeated by fighters securely positioned in the top seven of the division.
Rozenstruik holds firm advantages in UFC experience, level of athletes faced and striking diversity as he is a specialized world class kickboxing talent. The athlete from Suriname prefers to keep fights standing at every cost and try to finish opponents via his striking/kicking which is displayed in his willingness to take fights immediately to any/all foes.
Against lower levels of heavyweight combatants this blueprint is successful yet against the elite it falters because of Rozenstruik’s lack of a well-rounded, complete fight arsenal namely he has little ability to stop the takedown.
The question to be asked is will Gaziev be able to take this bout to the mat where Rozenstruik is susceptible to being dominated or will he try to strike with the South American slugger?
In a fight where the total is 1.5Rds. with the under lined -190 one may handicap Rozenstruik via KO/TKO or Gaziev via submission as logical results.
The prop “fight does NOT start round 3” -300 cannot be a potential consideration because of the exorbitant price so let us keep this week’s release simple:
Gaziev -165
Muhammad Mokaev -375 vs. Alex Perez +300 Flyweight (125lbs.)
Last week’s Flyweight main event of Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval was a rematch. What that fight demonstrated was how shallow the talent pool is in the flyweight division as after champion Alexandre Pantoja, there is Royval then Moreno and all three have competed against each other numerous times.
New blood in this division takes the form of up-and-coming talent Mokeav who is 10-0 professionally and has won all five of his UFC bouts.
His last fight, a third-round submission of crafty veteran Tim Elliot seemed proof that the twenty-tree year old Mokaev has the youth, size, wrestling ability and athleticism to break into the top five of this division.
His opponent, thirty-one-year-old Alex Perez is an experienced veteran of the UFC sporting a 24-7 record. However, Perez’s last win came in 2020 and he has simply two fights since that time.
In each of those bouts he faced elite level talent (Pantoja and Deiveson Figueiredo) but in each of those bouts he was submitted in the first round. His fight against Pantoja occurred in July of last year.
Perez has advantages of experience in this fight as well, he has faced more potent competition but at his age and with his low level of activity this bout seems pretty set up to display Mokaev’s abilities.
Five of Perez’s seven losses have come via submission. Meanwhile Mokaev has submitted his last three UFC competitors and seven of ten professional fighters faced.
This is a set-up fight designed to propel Mokaev to the top of this weight class to inject potent, young talent into a flyweight division that is in real need of aspiring talent.
Mokaev opened -255 and has ballooned to current pricing. Look for Mokaev to shine Saturday.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. pick-em.
I lean to the over as Perez must understand that his career is on the line here and he needs to make this a competitive bout.
Friday midday the GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast which features all my official releases drops. GambLou.com is the only place to access those releases.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the Saturday morning scraps!