The UFC heads to Montreal, Canada for this week’s UFC 315 Muhammad vs. Della Madelena. Early prelims kick off at 3:30pm PT with preliminary action at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the event dropping at 7pm PT.
This fight card is scheduled for eleven bouts to be held in the larger 30’ octagon in front of an ‘Oh Canada’ crowd who come as prepared and as rowdy as any fight fans alive.
As usual, there has been some shuffling on a late injury as Joel Alvarez had to pull out of his lightweight fight with Benoit Saint Denis.
On short notice comes Kyle Prepolec a Canadian journeyman fighter who is willing to step in for a second opportunity in the UFC.
So, with Prepolec, now six Canadian athletes populate this card and there is but one fighter competing from the states, Charles Radke.
There are five ‘big ‘boi’ fights (men weighing 170lbs and above) scheduled, three of those fights are lined with a 1.5 Rds. total as would be expected from larger more powerful men.
Last week I dropped my release on Meisha Tate who looked game and was willing but was slow, lumbering and ineffective. I must improve.
Belal Muhammad -180 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +155 Welterweight (170lbs.) Title
JDM has an undefeated record in seven UFC bouts with wins against a strong set of diversely armed adversaries.
A black belt in BJJ with dogged determination, JDM is an aggressive forward pressing striker who makes up for any lack of quickness and wrestling ability with his toughness, durability, and hot, heavy hands.
In Muhammad we get a fighter most have an easy time overlooking for Belal is not overly large, he is not powerful, nor does he possess an abundance of footwork or fluidity of movement.
What Muhammad does possess is a world class wrestling pedigree and a deep seeded belief in his skills. He applies unrelenting forward wrestling pressure by relying on his unending cardio. Muhammad’s cardio and his wrestling form a championship team.
Muhammad is an athlete that does more with his mind than any fighter on the roster.
At the bell, JDM will attempt to force Muhammad into striking exchanges where he feels he has advantage. He will do all he can to maintain distance between he and the incoming wrestler for he must not allow Muhammad to clasp onto him.
Over time JDM’s plan will be to frustrate Muhammad with the striking and over time make him desperate to shoot on him and predictable with his takedown attempts.
Striking distance and an aggressive, incoming opponent are recipes for success for the Aussie slugger and Della Maddalena has shown a propensity to excel in those opportunities.
Muhammad for his part understands that a forceful, forward attack must be employed early to negate any space between he and the Aussie. He must employ his wrestling to negate JDM’s striking space as well sap the slugger of his energy by forcing him to defend.
Muhammad is unusually strong/determined and over time he gains momentum because of his cardio. Over the mid to late stages of a fight, Muhammad becomes more effective while opponents eventually grow weary of his constant unrelenting pressure. As it is said,’ “fatigue makes cowards of us all.”
So, on one side we have JDM who must maintain his striking distance by using constant movement in this fight. He will look to plaster the forward pressing wrestler with power knees, straight strikes, and uppercuts.
JDM’s ability to sidestep his charging adversary to maintain striking distance will determine his fate in this fight for Muhammad pressures early, he pressures hard, and he pressures incessantly.
While each fighter is accomplished in their own fighting specialty, the fact is that Muhammad’s striking is far more refined and developed than the wrestling/grappling of Della Maddalena.
The depth of wrestling acumen for Muhammad supplemented with his solid striking and iron clad will provides the physical/mental weaponry he requires to earn victory over a competent challenger in JDM who is still somewhat singularly equipped.
Muhammad -180
This line opened -175, was as high as -225 and is now compressing.
Total in this fight:4.5Rds Over -200
Valentina Schevchenko +120 vs. Manion Fiorot -140 Woman’s flyweight (125lbs.) title
Second ranked French fighter Manion Fiorot has earned this championship opportunity by winning her first seven straight UFC bouts against an impressive list of decorated and diverse adversaries.
Fiorot, thirty-five, sports unusual size for a flyweight. She has earned her last five victories via decision. However, one look at those opponents forces me to heap respect on Fiorot for she has defeated top six ranked flyweights on her way to this opportunity.
Current Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.
She is the champion now a second time, she has defeated the who’s who in several women’s weight divisions and she finds herself in another title test this time against a larger, younger determined French opponent who happens to be less versed in mixed martial arts weaponry than is the champion.
It is Valentina’s diversity of attack as well her dynamic ability in wrestling, grappling, Muay Thai, Capoeira and Sambo that have her being mentioned as one of the greatest women fighters of all time.
Fiorot’s physical advantages, her height, reach, striking ability and youth together make her a true threat to the title as this fight comes down to whether Fiorot can force Shevchenko to compete all five rounds standing.
I must give Valentina respect for her world class fighting arsenal as well her deep championship history but at thirty-seven, with the wars she has been in, and now her propensity to fly private and dress in designer clothing forces me to side with the younger, stronger lady lion in this fight.
Fiorot opened -120 and has now been bet to -140.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -310
Muhammad -180/Fiorot -140 parlay 1u to earn 1.67u
Ion Cutelaba -115 vs. Modestas Bukauskas -105 light heavyweight (205lbs.)
Let us look at this light heavyweight battle between the Moldovan madman Ion Cutelaba who faces Lithuania’s Modesta Bukauskas in a regional, eastern European battle to be held in Montreal!
Lithuania sends in a tall, angular athlete who is dangerous on the feet and agile with his grappling while the shorter, more compact Moldovan hand grenade Cutelaba arrives a maniacal, offensive power striker with a forceful grappling base.
Cutelaba looks to ruin all in his wake through any fight with his blatantly aggressive striking attack. Cutelaba is all offense and little defense. However, his mad rushes to engage often leave him open for counterstrikes and takedowns.
The price on this fight has barely moved off the basic pick-em where it opened. Bukauskas is the more measured, better paced offensive threat and he is also the more well-rounded, defensive minded mixed martial artist here.
I believe if he can weather the madman from Moldova’s first five minutes then this fight turns in his favor.
Friday the ‘Bout business podcast drops around midday PT. Catch it only at GambLou.com
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!
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