UFC 322 will be held in Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. The Mecca for generational, epic pugilistic battles through the decades.

A packed house will take in twenty-eight fighters competing against one another to jettison their career trajectories and earning power forward into 2026.

There are several fights where there exists a greater than five-year age difference which favors younger combatants. Also, name recognition is higher as ranked and soon to be elite mixed martial artists face one another in what in many cases is an elimination fight.

Last week, I split releases for the second week in a row.

Islam Makhachev -265 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +235 Champion Welterweight (170lbs.)  title

JDM is the current welterweight champion having earned the title in his last battle where he dominated former champion Belal Muhammad (who decided to forgo his forte of wrestling and compete against JDM on the feet) a massive mistake. This was not only unsound strategy, but it allowed JDM to dominate the wrestling-based Muhammad by consistently getting up from the takedown.

In this fight JDM, a black belt in BJJ with a world class boxing background will not be fortunate enough to have an opponent that will fight him at his (JDM’s) advantage.

JDM is the bona fide welterweight athlete. He cuts weight to make it through weigh ins, and he is accustomed to welterweight power, might and size. JDM’s own size will be an adjustment for Makhachev, who holds substantial size advantage over the lightweights but will be on par with Jack.

For Makhachev, an International Master of Sport in combat sambo and a black belt in Judo, the weight of the world is on his shoulders being the next evolution of the Nurmagomedov wrestling dominance in the UFC.

Makhachev’s wrestling is the most dominant in the organization, his training at the hands of his cousin, lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov will prepare Makhachev for everything JDM has to offer by way of fight arsenal.

Makhachev, the most feared wrestling based mixed martial artist on the UFC roster is also an accomplished striker and he will absolutely be willing to strike with JDM because his camp believes as do I that on the feet this fight is even.

Eventually we will see Makhachev transition into his advantage. That advantage is wrestling. He’ll clasp, hit the takedown then drown JDM in the deep waters of Dagestani pressure. It’s Makhacev’s ability to dominate in the wrestling, which will as soon as he decides to employ it will put him at great advantage in this fight.

Fans are advertised to see a fascinating clash of styles but at the end of the day what they may witness is a first class wiping of the matt from Makhachev.

We’ll find out soon enough how complete the JDM wrestling acumen has become in this fight because is sole chance to win this fight is to be able to repel Makhachev take down attempts and keep this fight waged on the feet.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -130

Valentina Schevchenko -135 vs. Weili Zhang +115 Woman’s Flyweight (125lbs.) Title

Chinese mixed martial artist Weili Zhang held the women’s Strawweight championship twice in her career and now she makes the move up in weight class to face Russian fighter Valentina Schevchenko, a combatant as accomplished as any in MMA history.

At strawweight, Zhang faced every form of threat and defended her title numerous times and against every form of mixed martial arts threat, strikers, wrestlers, grapplers, and brawlers.

Zhang’s toughest tests came against Rose Namajunas who beat Zhang twice. Namajunas had deft wrestling/grappling ability to go with effective striking and nimble footwork.

In previous bouts, it’s wrestling where Zhang’s mettle has been most tested, but she’s developed quickly in that artform and arrives to this Flyweight challenge more than ready to try to address the dominance of the Russian Shevchenko.

Current Flyweight Champion Valentina Schevchenko, thirty-seven, has accolades in mixed martial arts that would fill a whole column by themselves.

She is the 125lb. champion for a second time now and has defeated the who’s who in both the women’s bantamweight and flyweight divisions.

She now finds herself in another title test, this time at a weight division she’s ruled for years but at thirty-seven while the guile and savvy are certainly hers, quickness, power and might belong her adversary.

What Zhang yearns to earn, and what she needs to solidify her claim to being on the woman’s MMA Mount Rushmore is that second title but more impressively… a second title over the GOAT of women’s MMA, Ms. Shevchenko.

This is going to be one of the most dynamic and well-matched fights of the year and I am looking forward to seeing if Zhang can defeat the decision machine that is Valentina Schevchenko and lay claim to defeating the woman currently regarded as the all-time GOAT of women’s UFC.

I believe in Zhang

Zhang +115 1u

Zhang Decision +200 1u

Total in this fight: 4.5Rds Over -260

Bo Nickal -215 vs. Rodolpho Viera +190 Middleweight (185lbs.)

This is what I mean when I say that we must be aware of these fight ‘situations.’ This ‘situation’ is relatively clear.

The UFC wants to manicure Bo Nickal and present the all American, world class wrestling talent with an advantageous path to success and popularity. Why? Because he puts seats in seats and sells the UFC!

One may only look as far as to his placement on this main card after being decimated in his last fight by a man who basically quit on his stool in his last fight a month ago.

Nickal’s being matched with what looks like on paper, a tough matchup save for the fact that his opponent is slow as a glacier in his striking and movement, singularly dimensioned as a grappler and will be unable to engage nickel let alone drag him to the floor. This fight was made for Nickal to shine.

Parlay time

Nickal -215/Makhachev -265 1u returns 1.02u

Total in the Nickal/Viera fight: 2.5Rds Over -150

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. Catch all my UFC 322 releases there!

Than you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

Gamblou.com

It’s Business!

UFC Fight Night Bonfim vs. Brown drops this Saturday at the APEX facility in Las Vegas, NV.

Thirteen scheduled bouts will be presented with fighters arriving from across the globe to compete in battles being waged from 115lb flyweight ladies to 265lb heavyweight men!

Again this week, the combatants populating this fight card are as relatively obscure and unrecognized at this stage of their careers as the UFC strives this time of year to get fighters scheduled to help fulfill contractual obligations as well put losing fighters on notice.

There are but a handful of fights with aggressive age differences on this card, these statistically favor the younger athlete. Save for one battle on this slate being lined -270 to the favorite, all the other fights on the card are lined competitively for these bouts are well matched.

Last week’s UFC card was/is engrossed in yet another betting scandal however this one is more serious than the last occurrence. I hesitate to report more than this because details are scant and it is responsible to wait for the hard facts before jumping on unreported fact.

Suffice it to say the feds may now be involved. The UFC could now be in a situation of explaining to authorities why they allowed the fight to move forward AFTER they had been warned about the inequities discovered in the betting markets by their watchdog entity Integrity Compliance 360 (IC360), a global compliance technology and advisory platform specializing in comprehensive integrity and regulatory technology*.

More news is coming for certain, and I’ll have strong opinions but only once the hard facts are brought to light!

Last week I split my positions as we earned victory and profit from the Stevie Garcia domination, yet we were robbed of a victory because of ultra dubious refereeing in the Delija vs. Cortez-Acosta fight where Delija was awarded the win, then after video replay and a ten-minute delay the fight was resumed. Seems the UFC is forceful enough to forge their own rules on the fly in these events?!

My fear is that the UFC is transitioning from a legitimate sport with wagering integrity (ala Boxing in the eighties) to scripted outcomes like the WWE. Let’s hope I am incorrect.

Let’s break down a couple of scheduled bouts!

Gabriel Bonfim -185 vs. Randy Brown +160 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event

Brazilian grappling talent Bonfim is a mixed martial artist who has realized a 5-1 result since his entry into the organization in 2023.

Bonfim, twenty-eight is an accomplished grappler who realizes an average of four plus take downs per fifteen minutes of fighting. His take down defense is solid yet his striking, pedestrian as it is, is still very much in development while his strike defense borders on inadequate.

Bonfim employs forward force to immediately engage opponents. His will to employ his grappling acumen help him cloak the fact that on the feet he is not to the level of top ranked talent in the UFC’s welterweight division.

I say this on the heels of a very controversial (yet another one) decision earned in his most recent fight against Steven Wonderboy’ Thompson. In that fight twelve of fourteen press credentialed professionals in attendance scored the fight for Thomson yet Bonfim was ‘awarded’ a split decision?!

Thomson, a forty one year old with dynamic kickboxing and stand up skills schooled the Brazilian and avoided being grounded yet despite the fact that he did everything he could to ethically earn victory, the decision went to the fighter who has more future merit for the organization as opposed to the fighter who actually won the fight.

Get used to this fight fans because it’s not going away.

In any case, the singularly dimensioned grappler Bonfim takes this fight against another tall, long well-rounded opponent in Randy Brown.

Brown, a Jamaican with a black belt in BJJ and a wealth of experience fights out of Queens, NY.

Brown’s been in with a more competent set of UFC foe, he’s faced fighters of every shape and skillset and provided he can depend on his stout 79% take down defense in this encounter he should be in position to wage this war with Bonfim from the stand-up position which greatly favors him in this fight.

Brown, despite being seven years the more mature fighter at thirty-five is two inches taller than his Brazilian foe as well he sports a six-inch reach advantage over Bonfim who may find it arduous to gain inside position on the athletic jawbreaker from Jamaica.

The telling factor in this fight is where it takes place because if Bonfim is able to bring Brown to the basement floor, he’ll hold advantage but not dominant advantage.

Should Brown be able to keep the Brazilian grappler at distance in a standing battle and force Bonfim into the second round and beyond, he’ll be in terrific position to utilize his well-rounded fight weaponry and beat the Brazilian in a standing battle.

Brown +160

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120

Joseph Morales -270 vs. Matt Schnell +230 Flyweight(125lbs) co-main event

Morales, 2-2 in the UFC received this opportunity because of the dominant upset win he earned earlier in the year against a heavily favored Alibi Idiris. This was Morales’ return fight to the UFC after realizing a 1-2 tally before being cut.

The win against Idiris showed that Morales had improved greatly in his all around mixed martial arts arsenal specifically his wrestling/grappling which will more than likely be needed against this specific opponent.

That opponent, Matt Schnell, is an athlete that is one victory into the UFC after his retirement from the organization. In almost every case of returning athletes post-retirement, the fighter returning from retirement learns that there was a legitimate reason that they had retired in the first place.

For Schnell we see that despite his world class grappling that the rest of his fight weaponry, namely striking and strike defense is lacking to say the least.

Schnell stood 6-7-1 in the UFC when he retired. Then this past April he returned to face an athlete more fragile and unable to take a straight flush to the face than he in fellow flyweight Jimmy Flick.

Schnell won that fight via decision and now after about a decade in the UFC he makes a co-main event appearance against a pugilist that is forceful with his fists and complimented by a complete grappling game.

This is a ‘changing of the guard’ fight as Schnell, who has been finished in all seven of his UFC bouts enters this fight loser of three of his last four.

Despite the fact that Schnell enters off a win, I must handicap the opponent he fought (Flick) as being journeyman material at best and realistically a talent that unfortunately does not belong in the UFC.

Once this fight begins, it will be Schell that will look to lock up and negate distance from the heavy-handed mauler Morales.

Schnell will find that the Morales grappling is not only much improved over his first UFC run but that his striking, kicking, and boxing are level beyond what Schnell will be able to defend or evade.

I handicap this fight to be relatively one sided and one in which I believe Morales shines.

Joe Morales opened -250 in this fight and his price now stands -270 which I believe is a fair representation of each man’s current skill level.

I handicap Morales to execute what the other seven victors have executed against Schnell, which is to finish him, most likely via KO. That said, my approach will be a simple ‘inside the distance’ tactic.

‘Morales to win via KO/Sub or DQ’ -105

at DraftKings. That will be our position to earn one unit in this week’s co main event.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -170

Strong lean to Under

Friday morning the ‘But Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com. All my final releases .3

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

*Integrity Compliance 360 description came from their webpage.

GambLou.com

It’s Business