The UFC Meta APEX hosts this week’s Fight Night event a fight slate that reached eleven bouts just last week with the addition of two matchups.
The APEX employs the smaller 25’ cage as well the venue holds only hundreds of fans.
Of the eleven bouts, four are competitions between athletes weighing 170lbs and above. That’s where finish rates are highest, it’s rewarding to get a couple of these bouts on this APEX card as the UFC seems to be evolving away from matching larger men in that small octagon/venue.
There are three bouts where an athlete from the USA faces an opponent that travels into the Country from abroad. Those fights will bear monitoring of the travelling athlete as well, their weight cut for travel does affect the weight and preparation of athletes.
Last week my supposed Serbian ‘hammer’ was in fact the ‘nail’ as journeyman mixed martial artist Gil Urbina knocked out local fighter Vlasto Cepo in one round. Onward we journey!
Mateusz Gamrot +130 vs. Quillan Sallkild -150 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event
I have been taught that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.
In this fight we have a young, tall, strong Aussie black belt in BJJ taking on a short sawed off Polish chain wrestler in a main event that should really be compelling.
Australian Quillan Salkilld ships in for this bout after winning a contender series fight then realizing a 5-0 tally in UFC completion.
Salkilld has great physical advantages in this fight as he is eleven years the younger man, and he hold reach, height, and leg length dominance.
Salkilld need to employ those physical attributes to this fight particularly in order for him to keep the forward pressing and unrelenting wrestling of Gamrot at distance. Distance will allow Salkilld to utilize his jab, fire straight right hands behind that jab then follow that combination up with a kick which must be executed from a safe distance.
While Salkilld is a decorated BJJ artist, he does not wish to foray on the floor with this vice grip of a wrestling talent in Gamrot. With that mentioned, Salkilld has earned a 7.25 takedown per fifteen minutes of fight time stat which is impressive even considering the lack of elite competition he has competed against.
While his resume shows that he has finished four of his five adversaries, a closer look shows that none of those opponents were/are ranked in the top fifteen of the division nor were they elite with unrelenting forward pressing wrestling.
In Mateusz Gamrot we get the prototypical unrelenting power wrestler.
Gamrot’s UFC resume is far more complete than Salkilld’s as well he has faced a far superior set of elite UFC lightweight competition, after all he is thirty-five.
Gamrot will need to ensure that he avoids Salkilld’s power early in this fight and upon his entry to clasp then take down the Aussie. He will need to protect his neck in those take down attempts and not run into a choke. When he is able to engage, and when he drags this long, lanky finisher to the ground (a key for him in this fight) the fight for Gamrot will commence while the desperation to get off his back will compel the Aussie.
Gamrot’s seen and competed against short, tall, thin, and rotund strikers/wrestlers/grapplers prior while Salkilld’s first run in with an elite power wrestler of any body type will come Saturday.
This fight sets up to be competitive early but eventually the unrelenting pressure of Gamrot could begin to wear the long, tall Aussie down and eventually make him susceptible to the Gamrot control, ground and pound and damage.
After all, this is a substantial step up in class for Salkilld as well it is a five round fight, a first for Salkilld but not the first for Gamrot.
It’s my take that this will be a very competitive fight. Salkilld will need to pulverize Gamrot with elbows, fists and knees on his way to engage while Gamrot must fight this man from an inside the pocket position. Gamrot must be glue and affix himself on Salkilld in order to mute the Aussie’s offense and put him on the defense for Gamrot being forced to remain on the outside in this battle will be disaster to his chances of winning.
A great, competitive fight in a small cage. edge to wrestler?
Total in this fight: There are books with 3.5Rds. Over -125 as well there are books with 4.5Rds Under -135.
Strong Lean to Over 3.5
Alexia Thainara -240 vs. Amanda Lemos +205 Women’s strawweight (115lbs.)
Tenth ranked Alexia Thainara is a Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner who trains with the Ribas family. She is a developing fighter who is 3-0 in UFC competition facing only a nominally effective set of competition entering this fight.
Thainara holds a two inch reach advantage in this fight which means little as she is a grappler as opposed to an effective striker. She is also a whopping eleven years the younger fighter in this matchup.
At the turn of the year I pledged to quit chasing fighters six years (+/-) older than their opponent and it has paid dividends however, in this fight I must make an exception.
Eleven ranked Amanda Lemos, now thirty-nine has competed against the absolute elite of the strawweight division. She’s realized a 9-6 record over nine years of UFC competition.
Lemos is unlike most Brazilian fighters in that her grappling is underdeveloped while her striking aptitude, power, volume, and strike defense are elite. Lemos takes this fight knowing that with a loss she freefalls down the rankings and more than likely out of the top twenty of the division which spells doom for a thirty-nine year old.
So Thainara enters the most important fight of her life while Lemos does also!
Lemos’ experience and the level of competition faced force me to believe that she’ll manage the take down attempts put on her by Thainara then when this fight remains standing I judge Lemos to be in far superior position.
I expect Lemos to fight like a pit bull backed into a corner protecting a litter in this fight. She is NOT ready to ride off into the sunset rather, I believe she puts forth a highly effective game plan on her way to a decision victory.
Lemos +205
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -210
Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. Catch all my releases for this fight card there or go to Ga,nLou.com to access the podcast.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!