This week Sacramento, CA, is the host city for UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs. Rodrigues.
This fight card is scheduled for thirteen bouts, six of which feature athletes who present fans with the highest rate of finishes, that’s the 170lb to Heavyweight divisions of the UFC.
Ten fighters travel into the states from out of the country to compete against domestic athletes so monitoring those weight cuts and fight week developments are important. Four Californian’s will compete on the card two facing one another (Emmers vs. Douglas) and the other two face combatants from Canada and Brazil.
Last week MacKenzie Dern -220 displayed the world class fight acumen we discussed in our breakdown to thoroughly dominate Canadian Gillian Robertson who was in over her head from the time this fight was announced.
The only actor that had a worse night than Robertson was her cornerman Din Thomas who provided five rounds of absolute un-motivating backup to his fighter. In fact, between the fourth and fifth round of the fight it was clear that Thomas was embarrassed at what was transpiring and he took it out on his fighter.
In the fight game sometimes an athlete hits the octagon with a blank stare and little fight. This is what happened to Robertson last Saturday unfortunately.
Let’s Fight!
Anthony Hernandez -170 vs. Gregory Rodrigues +140* Middleweight (185lbs.) Main Event
Tenth ranked UFC middleweight Rodrigues is a fighter who appears to be sculpted out of marble. He is large, extremely powerful and is diversely equipped in mixed martial arts weaponry.
Rodrigues, 10-3 in UFC competition can be inconsistent in his approach to maintaining his UFC momentum as every two to three fights Rodrigues gets matched against an athlete that finds a way to upset him whether that is Jared Cannonier or Bruno Ferreira.
Rodrigues, or ‘Robocop’ as he is called is a decorated black belt in BJJ and his kicks, strikes and elbows carry devastating damage upon landing.
While Rodrigues can start fights looking formidable, strong, and fresh he often begins to slow as an opponent remains competitive and is able to force him to fight into the late second or third round where Rodrigues size and musclebound frame begin to work against him.
Rodrigues strikes at a high output (5.53 significant strikes per minute), but he eats 4.78 SS/M of power strikes so he is more than willing to trade power shots something that his opponent Fluffy Hernandez will look to avoid.
Hernandez is the seventh ranked UFC middleweight who enters this fight off a disappointing KO loss against champion Sean Strickland to which there is no same. Hernandez SS/M is 4.57 which is impressive especially considering his effective strike evasion for Fluffy only receives 3.10 SS/M.
Hernandez was riding momentum into that Strickland title opportunity before he was dominated by the champion in a performance that was unusual for Hernandez in that he was never able to get his attack started let alone unleashed.
This fight is a terrific example of girth, might, power and limited energy supply (Rodrigues) facing a fighter who will be much the slighter man physically however Hernandez will command the quickness, speed, footwork, and most especially cardio components of this fight.
Early on Rodrigues will plod forward in order to ‘make’ this fight and attempt to force Hernandez to exchange while Hernandez will look to use that large cage to contribute to his footwork and strike evasion.
Robocop can slow during fights while Hernadez never tires, and in fact usually begins to differentiate himself from his opponent after the first round has expired simply because his conditioning is as lethal a weapon for Fluffy as is his offensive MMA weaponry.
Hernandez will use his feet to force Robocop into moving and defending early in this fight, as the bout transpires and as Rodrigues begins to slow Hernandez’ speed, deft footwork and volume striking should begin to control this fight.
Hernandez, a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with a black belt in Marinoble’s MMA system will need to play matador in this fight and over time sap the limited cardio from the aggressive incoming power striker Rodrigues.
Rodrigues, for his part will need to attempt to utilize the early minutes of this fight to bully, badger and physically berate Hernandez with the intention of not allowing Hernandez to breath let alone find his way into the later rounds for it is in those later rounds where the differences in these two fighters will be most pronounced.
I have many thoughts on this fight so check back Friday on the ‘Bout Business Podcast for more on this main event.
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds. Under -200
Mason Jones -265 vs. MarQuel Mederos +225 Lightweight (155lbs.)
This may be one of the most entertaining fights of the summer.
Jones travels in from Wales to take this fight against a fighter in Mederos who lives and trains in Phoenix. So travel and all of the periphery issues that surround Jones arriving to Sacramento then making weight are just a bit more complex than they are for the domestic fighter Mederos.
Jones is a simple warrior. He is big, strong, aggressive, and completely unafraid. Mason Jones ‘makes’ fights, and by that I mean he arrives, he checks in, then when the bell rings his single point of focus is to dislodged any opponent from their consciousness.
Jones weaponry is comprehensive for he is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a black belt in Judo as well he has earned a black belt in Kickboxing.
On the feet, on the floor or against the cage, Jones sports the mixed martial arts acumen and experience to dominate any fight.
Where Jones can be challenged, however, is if he has to compete against an athlete with abundant speed, precision, strike evasion, footwork, and counterstriking.
Enter MarQuel Mederos.
Mederos has the advantage of living a few hours away from Sac-town so travel and weight cutting on paper should be a much easier ordeal for him entering this foundational fight.
Mederos is a fluid striker who makes up for a lack of one punch KO power by utilizing his athleticism, footwork, octagon generalship, and volume counter striking.
Where Jones hurls bombs to destroy, Mederos utilizes combinations/counterstrikes to eventually sap the steam from opponents, then transition into his volume striking and kicking in order to overwhelm the adversary.
Mederos last fight was a draw based on a point taken from him during the fight and that does not sit well with the 11-1-1 mixed martial artist.
He yearns for this fight, this opponent, and this challenge!
Once the bell for this fight rings, it will be mandatory for Mederos to utilize his fluidity of movement and counterstriking especially early when Jones has the most sting on his power strikes/kicks.
Mederos must manage this fight into the second round, from there his athleticism and feet will begin to display the vast gap in expertise between these two for I do not believe Jones will be able to catch up to a finitely focused Mederos once Mederos gets into this bout and gets lathered up.
Jones opened -225 in this fight which in my judgement was too high an opening number on Jones. Take the fact that that price has now escalated to Jones -280 (DraftKings) and we have what I believe is a great opportunity on the underdog here.
Mederos will need to use every bit of octagon savvy and defensive aptitude in that first round to both sap the walloper from Wales of his energy then force him to have to fight into the later stages of what Mederos needs to be a fifteen minute war.
Once and if this fight can get into the second round and beyond, the complexion will change and we’ll see Jones go from hunter to the hunted as Mederos utilizes his feet, his counterstriking acumen, and his deft strike defense.
These two will compete on the feet, however, if we do see Jones initiate wrestling, it will be a sure sign that Mederos’ speed and counterstriking is forcing Jones off plan which is exactly what I believe transpires late in the fight.
Mederos take down defense stands at 82%, so he will welcome Jones shooting in on him as that will create opportunity for further counter strikes, knees, and kicks.
Mederos is live.
Mederos +225 .50u
Mederos +3.5 pts +100; 1.5u
‘Bout Business Podcast has been white hot all summer long. Friday early afternoon the podcast drops across all podcast platforms and on GambLou.com. Catch all my final releases there.
Enjoy the fights and Thank You for reading