NFL Divisional Drubbings?

Yes NFL enthusiasts I believe this week we witness four games that will not fall withing a seven point difference. Here are my predictions for each game. As an FYI, My NFL clients are sitting on a 3 team 7 point teaser this week. Interested parties can access that release at VSiN.

Buffalo 22 vs. Denver 11

Seattle 28 vs. San Francisco 18

New England 23 vs. Houston 10

Los Angeles 28 vs. Chicago 19

Good Luck to all and check right back here early next week for my early Championship Round predictions!

NFL Wildcard Weekend: Pick the Winner!

It is a timeless piece of wisdom from Gill Alexander—I’ve heard him drop this Wild Card nugget on his VSiN program, ‘A Numbers Game’ for years, and it’s backed by solid historical data.

The core idea is that Wild Card games tend to produce decisive outcomes: favorites either blow out opponents (covering comfortably) or underdogs pull off outright upsets, with very few “win but no cover” scenarios for the favorite.

Recent trends support it closely. In the last 74 Wild Card games (per VSiN data from early 2025), the outright winner covered the spread 86.3% of the time (63-10-1 ATS). “Win-no-covers” (favorite wins but fails to cover) are rare, happening only about 14% of the time—very close to Gill’s 12% figure from the pre-expansion era.

Even with the playoff format expanding to six games per round since 2020, the pattern of lopsided results has largely persisted, though underdogs have been strong ATS overall in recent postseasons.

You’re spot on about this year’s setup adding extra intrigue: opening lines show three home underdogs entering Wild Card weekend (as of January 5 lines).

My advice is to simply to focus on picking the winner of any particular contest and let the spread take care of itself 86–88% of the time it is sharp—especially in a round known for blowouts or chaos.

Good luck this weekend, Let’s cash some winners!

NFL Week 18: Hasten Slowly

NFL week 18 brings more unknown than Christmas day my friends.

We have four games where playoff spots are on the line and a couple others where a team may enhance their position.

For this reason I see myself trying to focus on Panthers and Bucs Saturday, Seahawks and 49ers Saturday night, Bronco and Bolts Sunday late game then the SNF tilt of Steelers hosting the Raven.

I try to invest in integrity games this time of year to prepare for playoff NFL as opposed to trying to figure out whether the Saints or the Dirty bird have more to play for which for both is nothing!

Here’s an early 3 team 10pt Teaser obtained at DraftKings -120:

Buc’s +7.5

Vikings +3.5

Bills +1.5

I have mucho on the Bills Under 10.5 season wins (lost), 11.5 season wins (in play to Jets) and 12.5 season wins (already a winner) so the attempt here is to minimize a touch of my Bill exposure. No doubt however I am a big Jets fan this week despite them having absolutely NO chance of winning.

Next week I’ll make an accounting of all GambLou.com releases across all sports for 2025.

*Photo is of the Westgate Superbook during Covid…. damn near the Twilight Zone!

NFL Musings and Abusing

 

It appears the fire in Miami is burning hottest inside that locker room. This team just lost to a team that had only earned victory in Miami twice in the last decade. Miami’s burnin’.

The Bills’ early schedule is a cakewalk. They’ll likely be 5-0 after the first handful of games. It’s then that we will see regression from a team poised to win it all but not poised to win twelve ballgames.

How ’bout them Cowboys, Bears, and Jets-Jets-Jets? Futility from ownership down through the entire organization over a generation shows in each of these teams, as their play on the field is dismal.

Danny Dimes may have found a situation where he has running backs and wide receivers, yes, but more importantly, he has an offensive line. Without horses, you’re cooked in the NFL.

Zac Taylor is a dead man walking.The Falcons were a team we invested in this year with Over positions. It looks like we invested well after a meager two weeks of football.

I have mentioned several times how one must simply step back and let Jim Harbaugh take over. He is, and so are his Bolts!

Chargers +800 to win the AFC?

I just released it this morning!

We’re two weeks into the 2025 season, and teams are just finding themselves.

Take your time, be patient, and conduct your own work—unless you simply wish to trust me and my due diligence, then fire away and enjoy.

We have four-plus months of this remaining!

GambLou.com

It’s Business! 

“If you want to be wrong, follow the masses” Socrates

Every year, months prior to the NFL regular season, I preach to anyone who will listen on the aspect of applying discipline into one’s sports betting.

Sportsbooks and shows that are the voice for the Books (Sportsgrid, VSiN and the like) are harping at listeners from the Super bowl to the Hall of Fame game about early ‘value’ bets in the NFL because there is nothing to speak of that holds anyone’s interest in the dog days of summer.

Forget that those dishing the releases are bumblers that are unaware of how square they are or they are simply journalists who must fill dead time who are aware that talking anything but NFL will have listeners turning off their program!

Beside tying up one’s money for months, there is little to NO benefit in firing early.

Take for example all the pukes that were all over the Rams over season wins and played them for the division, conference and/or SB this year?

Now Stafford is injured and no one knows how badly this will affect him, his team and the few imbeciles that thought firing on an ‘over’ months before the season was smart.

Players please use your head and some common sense!

Simply understand that what Socrates stated so many years ago is correct:

“If you want to be wrong, follow the masses.”

So forget jumping early NFL bets now, be patient, be businesslike and if you must throw a wager out there early, please make certain it is an Under or for a team to NOT win a division because until the pre season is completed (it is now completed) it is folly to try to get in front of Overs and positive happenings for a team.

With Under wagering or with wagering on a team to NOT accomplish something those injuries, trades and retirements can only contribute to your bottom line, not destroy it!

Word to you Momma!

 

2024 All Sports Financial Review:

GambLou.com 2024 financial results are as follows:

2024 GambLou.com Results Summary*

NFL                                          61-50    $16,765.00*  15%    ROI 

College World Series                14-13     +3.10u              12.5%   ROI

NHL                                            40-54    -1.50u               -2%       ROI

UFC final 2024                        93-127     -7.0u                -2.1%    ROI

*(NFL Unit size is 10 times larger than the unit size used for every other sports)

GambLou.com directed 16% of all GROSS income in 2024 to the San Xavier del Bac Mission in Tucson, AZ. Please read all about my connection to San Xavier by tapping on the San Xavier del Bac Mission tab at the top right of this webpage. 

GambLou.com is also financing an under privileged young man’s Catholic education in the Dominican Republic through NPH USA and will continue to do so as long as I am breathing.

—————————————————-

UFC favorites in 2024 realized a 70.5% win rate, as a note Favorites in the UFC have averaged 63%/64% each year for the past fifteen plus years…no excuse just the facts.

GambLou.com

It’s Business

NFL Week 10 Musing and Abusing

NFL observations from a betting perspective

The Arizona Cardinals should be credited for their efforts and results so far this year. Let’s see how the second half transpires but this team is reacting well to head coach Jonathan Gannon.

Injuries seem high? Yes, because pre-season work effort is minimal. It’s simple.

Saquon Barkley’s play this past weekend was a perfect example of an athlete training for any condition then when confronted with danger, allows instinct and athletic prowess to rule. He never had a chance to think about or set up that move, it was pure instinct.

De’Von Achane is a talented player, and the Dolphins have a group of athletes on offense that can dominate provided they are not competing in inclement weather, and they have a full complement of team weaponry. That defense however is horrendous.

Quietly the Eagles are 6-2 and have not put it all together yet.

There are many teams that are still putting it together. They include the Hawks, Rams, Buc’s, Chargers, Cards, Commies and Steel.

11 of 32 teams have 2 or 3 wins after week 9…. That’s pretty telling results for a league striving to create parity at all costs.

Houston plus 3.5 against the red-hot Lions this week? Yep. This is the first home game for the Texans in a month and the Lions arrive off an emotional win against division rival Minnesota last week. Great spot for Houston.

 

 

NFL Musing and Abusing: Week 7 style

“I hid in the clouded wrath of the crowd, when they said, sit down, I stood up”!

Springsteen ‘Growing up”

Sport is cruel.

I wish to offer prayers and best wishes to young Aiden Hutchison. The violence those men deal with daily is beyond most people’s understanding. To see his leg snapped like a twig Sunday only exemplifies how lucky the few are that get to compete at such a high level.  NFL athletes undertake extreme risk on a daily basis.

Davante Adams is going to resuscitate the Jets! I’m not so sure I believe that… the Jets need horses on the O-Line in my estimation, but Adams can’t but help that run game a bit… time will tell with these Jets, Jets, Jets.

One thing’s for certain, as there IS time for them to right that downbound train.

How ‘bout them Cowboys?

Jerry Jones is doing to the Cowboy’s what the children of Papa Bear Halas have done to the Bears. No doubt intentions were and are ‘admirable’ but institutional prowess and execution are flawed. When ‘one’ does not belong in the football business, it shows!

The best news for the Pokes and the Bears? There exists….the Browns and the Bears and Boys ain’t quite there…..yet!

Don’t think I have forgotten about the Raiders!

What Al’s son has done to the culture of that team is unfortunate. Sure, the franchise, like that in Dallas and Chicago even Cleveland are appreciable wealth assets but what about pride? What about serving your people? What about showing up with some dad gummed civic pride for the fans?

Philly? They got head coaching issues and what’s about to boil over there may not be pretty. Someone in the NFC East better watch out for the Commies.

NFC South was supposed to be the cheap suits, yet it seems like they have two legit playoff contenders there.

I hope Tagovailoa can play and maintain full health again. I was lucky enough to be in a huddle from 1967 to 1993 and I understand the importance of team for men of that age. Everlasting bonds man.

Jet’s fire Salah. Unfair, hail yes but it IS the nature of this profession. Salah will be back as soon as he wants to say yes to the many offers to D Coordinate he’ll receive.

Bills, Vikes, Lions, Pack, Texans, Chiefs, Hawks and Steel….Super Bowl winner comes from that group from this week 7 perspective.

The Jags zigged when they should have Jagged. Young QB who entered the NFL with accolades is simply not performing to his reputation…that said, the front office geniuses dumped WR talent this offseason like it was cancerous?

I see some games this week that offer great opportunity based on the reactions (as in over) from last week…. Week 6 was a public slaying of the bookmakers capped off by the Bills cover MNF for the cherry on top.

While I won’t ‘cry no tears’ for the bookies, I’ll assure you that there will be some public confident bet’s coming in on the NFL this week.

 

NFL Musing and Abusing: Week II observations

Carolina on my mind benching Young for Dalton will display how far Carolina as an organization really is….was it the QB position or is the issue a little larger than that? We’ll know soon. I for one support Andy Dalton the Red Rifle. Dude is an NFL QB. Period.

-The Ravens O-Line is in need of real development, as is there defensive backfiield.

-Raven QB Jackson is one athletic chap but his passing aptitude/ability/effectiveness is less than average.

-Buc’s do the Lions at home, Raida’s beat the Ravens after being down big, Vikes vex the Niners and the Saints exorcise the Pokes. If you’re betting the NFL you best ‘hate’ your money if you wish to earn.

Why don’t any of the NFL rookie QB’s look like CJ Stroud did last year? Because Stroud is surely the exception not the rule.

-Speaking of Texans? That Houston Texans to have most wins in the NFL 20/1 ticket I hold is breathing.

-Prayers for the young QB Tagovailoa who has great talent but now must prioritize just exactly how he wishes to spend the rest of his life. Let’s hope whatever the decision the young man lives a healthy full life.

-As far as those bastard Cops who abused Tyreek Hill a week ago, those ignoramuses need to be disciplined and I mean publicly and seriously. Bullies!

Hey, there’s nothing more honorable than an ethical conscientious cop (and there is an abundance of them) but there’s also nothing worse that a ‘pig with an attitude’ (and there are well too many of those also).  Those fat jagg’s in Miami need to shovel poop in the everglades for a couple months.

-Injuries this week were apparent and as this season moves into the fall we’ll see many, many, more. You see, the NFL cares very little about the player and that is evidenced by the fact that they’re parting out teams on primetime TV to suit the networks and boost their ratings…that comes at the expense of the player.

Need evidence?

In the last 5 years no teams played 3 games in 10 days. This year 10 teams do*.

In the last 5 years 5 teams had to endure 4 games in seventeen days…this year the NFL has 5 teams on the schedule that must do so*.

This year there are 66 games on the NFL schedule where one team has a 3+ day rest over the other team*.

-The Carolina franchise is in deep do-do. Deep, and it appears there is little hope outside of Charlotte for this bunch.

-Bucs, Saints, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Steel, Texans, Vikes, Seahawks are all undefeated, who’ll be the last to lose a ballgame?

*I’ll reference Warren Sharp for this information

GambLou.com

It’s Business