Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Nashville Sandhagen vs. Font: Rocky chop!

Justin Gaethje captured the UFC’s BMF title with last week’s dynamic head kick knockout of Justin Poirier.

Favorites ran 7-3-1 on the card and are realizing a 62.7%-win rate in 2023 down a full 5% from last year’s obtuse 67 plus percent!

My release of Justin Poirier ITD +130 leaves me on the wrong end of profitability for the first time since I began writing these columns some five years ago as results are 12-14 <.85u>.

A major correction is on the way.

Cory Sandhagen -265 vs. Rob Font +220 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event

Seventh ranked Font steps into this fight on short notice which is as impressive for him as it is that Sandhagen had accepted this bout originally with Umar Nurmagomedov. Nurmagomedov, a Russian vice grip fell out of the fight due to injury so now Sandhagen faces a stylistically different athlete in Font.

With Font we have a fighter who arrives off of presenting young up and coming bantam Adrien Yanez with his PhD. in MMA as Font dominated the younger man in his last outing.

Font’s a slick boxer with a piston jab, good footwork and extreme durability, a brown belt in BJJ compliments his fight arsenal.

At thirty-six, on short notice and giving up three inches of height in this bout Font will have his work cut out for him Saturday.

Third ranked Sandhagen, a psychology major from Boulder is an accomplished kickboxer with a brown belt in BJJ. He prepares for a different challenge in striker Font than grappler Nurmagomedov but Sandhagen’s should familiar with elite striking adversaries as he’s tussled with the likes of Champion Aljo Sterling, Petr Yan, Song Yadong and other elite talent at the weight class.

Once this bout begins, I look for Sandhagen’s high fight IQ, his extremely well-rounded fight arsenal complete with footwork and cardio to simply be a little too much for a tough, grinding, unrelenting forward pressure striker like Font.

This fight as I handicap it revolves around cardio, striking volume and efficient movement. These are all Sandhagen assets and this is where he holds the advantages.

Sandhagen opened -165 and has shot up in price making playing the props necessary in order to derive value from this fight.

Total in the fight: 4.5Rds. Under -120

Over 3.5 Rds -140 (alternate total DraftKings)

I believe this bout has decision written all over it.

Kyler Phillips -195 vs. Raoni Barcelos +165 bantamweight (135lbs.)

Barcelos is an athletic Braznlian athlete with black belt in BJJ, a solid wrestling base, heavy hands and ill intention. 1-3 in his last 4 fights, Barcelos has displayed an inconsistency that makes it hard to predict what fighter steps into the cage on any particular occasion.

Dangerous to start but uneven after early violence seems to best describe Barcelos.

Phillips arrives off a suspension so he battles inactivity besides the freakishly talented Barcelos.

Phillip’s wrestling base, cardio and durability are all assets but perhaps his biggest weapon is his intelligence. It’s here where I believe these athletes vary most.

Once this fight begins, Phillips will need to navigate through the damage and destruction that Barcelos is sure to offer early. However, once and if Phillips is able to weather that first five minutes of fury then it’s my judgement that he’ll be in position to use his cardio, wrestling and pressure late in order to suck the will from Raoni.

I’ll await props for this bout

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops each Friday mid-day provided there is a UFC event. Look for us across all podcast platforms.

Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje II: Diamond in the tough

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday early PM PT.

This article was originally published on VSiN’s digital magazine 7/26

Salt Lake City, UT hosts this week’s UFC 217 where fight fans will witness a much-anticipated rematch in the lightweight division where second ranked Dustin Poirier faces third ranked Justin Gaethje for the ‘BMF’ belt. Whether for a mythological belt, the lightweight championship or a backyard melee, all these two require to face one another in an epic rematch is time and place.

Dustin Poirier -145 vs. Justin Gaethje +125 Middleweight (155lbs.) main event

I was fortunate enough to be live at the first bout between these two in Phoenix 2018 when Poirier, who’d had his legs bludgeoned by the unrelenting forward striking pressure of Gaethje, ultimately ignored his injuries, persevered and finished Gaethje in the fourth in an ultra-impressive display of guts and grind.

What Gaethje took from that experience is what many did in that he realized then that his ‘go for broke’ fight style, though entertaining for fans had to be refined and a true fight plan had to be installed if he had any aspirations of taking the title for this division.

Attributes such as footwork, patience, strike defense and levelheadedness are required improvement areas to instill into Gaethje’s warrior mentality.

Trevor Wittman of team Elevation in Colorado has worked with Gaethje on his mental approach, especially his fight IQ once he finds himself in the blistering heat of the fight. This has been their focus since the first Poirier bout.

In Gaethje’s last fight we saw great evolution as we witnessed him systematically take apart a very accomplished, future lightweight elite in Rafael Fiziev. In that fight Gaethje displayed his fight evolution for he came with a plan, executed said plan, then allowed his raw aggression to put an exclamation on his systematic yet aggressive attack.

Gaethje believes that Poirier will step into the cage Saturday with a foe that is nowhere near the fighter or man he fought in 2018 and to an extent I believe that to be true.

For Poirier there only positivity. Aside from losses to Oliveira and Nurmagomedov which Poirier has moved beyond; he’s had his hand has raised in his last nine competitions. He’s a refined, precise, striker who is versed in grappling, has cardio for ten rounds, features a granite chin and is as determined as any athlete in the organization.

Poirier’s precision, athleticism, fight IQ and experience against the absolute elite in the division make him THE threat to the title in my opinion should he get his hand raised here.

A clarifying way to look at these maniacs is by their numbers.

Poirier lands 5.51 significant strikes per minute and only allows 4.25 for a +1.26 ratio. He averages 1.4 take downs per fight and he defends 63% of takedown attempts.

A well-rounded approach.

Gaethje’s numbers are more reflective of the reckless, aggressive Gaethje as his successful significant strikes are a whopping 7.38 but the significant strikes he receives is 7.66 for a negative .28 ratio. He attempts few to no take down attempts in his bouts though he’s got a solid wrestling base and defends 53% of takedowns.

A singularly dimensioned approach.

Both men, after losing to Oliveira had impressive victories to set them up for this fight which essentially props the winner into a final run at a title fight while the loser will have a long road back to contention realizing that each combatant is thirty-four.

It’s Poirier’s more diverse fight ability, his logic, calm demeanor and ability to remain on plan against the ‘natural born brawler’ in Gaethje who is claiming to be more patient and ‘Poirier-like’ in his approach.

My question, does that all change once Poirier pastes Gaethje with a two-piece to the teeth?

This fight opened Poirier -125

Total for this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -130

This total surprised me based on the fact that these two went a ferocious four plus rounds in their first fight.

Each man seems to be entering this fight more dangerous as mixed martial artists than when they first fought despite the five-year gap in bouts.

The point spread of ‘Poirier -5.5 points -105’ most surprises me as this seems to indicate a relatively one-sided fight favoring Poirier.

I handicap this fight as very tight early but as the minutes elapse wears Poirier’s speed, precision, power, cardio and footwork will be the differentiating factors in this bout.

Poirier via KO, Submission or DQ +130

Jan Blachowicz -120 vs. Alex Pereira +100 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) co main event

Brazilian Pereira we last saw being KO’d By Israel Adesanya in their rematch at middleweight this past April after KO’ing the then champion in the fifth round of their first bout.

Pereira moves up to the 205lb. weight class for obvious reasons. He walks around at 225-230lbs. normally. The cut to 185 made him a monster to face on fight day but as Adesanya displayed this past April, that cut took too much away from the Brazilian stalwart thus this move up.

Weight class or not Pereira, a decorated, elite, world class kickboxer is relatively inexperienced in the MMA realm as his 7-2 record indicates.

He was profoundly powerful and dangerous at the middleweight level and his power will more than translate to light heavyweight.

What he may have issues with are the size of combatants he’ll face as well foe’s whose fight arsenal is equipped with world class grappling and wrestling are sure to provide Pereira with plenty of challenge for his area of improvement is surely grappling.

In ex-champion Jan Blachowicz, we have a relatively understated Polish killing machine trained in Judo, dangerous on his feet and decorated with a black belt in BJJ.

Blachowicz has been in with the likes of Jared Cannonier, Glover Teixeira (Pereira’s coach and mentor) and Thiago Santos, so he’s prepared for structured, physical foes like Pereira.

What Blachowicz offers as his most valued asset in this fight is his well-rounded fight ability.

He can compete at a world class level anywhere this fight goes. Blachowicz’s certain edge in the grappling/wrestling department provide him the means to get his hand raised in this bout.

He’ll need to press and tax the Brazilian striker from the opening bell and try to back him up. Blachowicz does not benefit in any way by remaining at distance too long.

For Blachowicz, eliminating distance from Pereira, smothering him, clasping onto him, clinching then pressing him against the fence are signals he’s got the fight working by his parameters because the next move from fence is floor and once there this fight becomes Blachowicz’s to lose.

In summary, Blachowicz wants to fight forehead to forehead, then chest to chest while his Pereira must maintain distance in order to be effective with those long, vicious, damaging, knee’s, teeps, elbows and fists.

Blachowicz opened -145 for this fight because he is the experienced light heavyweight with more diverse weaponry. We’ve seen his price drop a bit leading into the week which in my estimation makes the Blachowicz side an interesting proposition.

Monitoring

Total in this Fight: 2.5Rds. Under -185

GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PST. All my final releases can be found there. I’ll also appear on VSiN’s ‘Follow the Money’ program Friday 5:30AM PT.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC FN Aspinall vs. Tybura: London flog

  • GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop this morning 10am PT ish

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first bell for London England’s UFC Fight Night this Saturday rings at 12pm EST/9am PST stateside so be prepared fight enthusiasts.

Fifteen of the thirty athletes on this card are of English, Irish, Scottish, Spanish or French heritage, an important aspect to these bouts and only two fights feature fighters competing outside of Europe.

The last London fight card was this past March. On that card we witnessed welterweight champion Leon Edwards defend his title against Kamau Usman but more importantly, we witnessed the European athletes succeed in 9 of their twelve bouts.

Many fight enthusiasts feel the UFC in its zeal to expand its product often presents certain local competitors’ ‘favorable’ matchups. You may include me in that many but with that said the potential advantage lies not in siding with the locals but on handicapping which one it will be that may falter!

Tom Aspinall -490 vs. Marcin Tybura +370 Heavyweight (265lbs.) main event

Tenth ranked Polish heavyweight Tybura enters having won seven of his last eight bouts. A black belt in BJJ, Tybura is a threat in the clinch, pressing opponents against the fence and when he’s earned top position on the ground when he’s able to take the fight to the floor.

On his feet Tybura is somewhat deliberate, telegraphing and often hesitant to fire combinations choosing rather to maul, clasp and hug.

In this fight Tybura will be facing the most dangerous test of his career for fifth ranked Englishman Tom Aspinall, will be the taller, younger, quicker and more athletic big man in the cage.

However, Aspinall’s entering this fight off a knee injury loss to Curtis Blaydes last July.

It’s my belief that a year is the minimal amount of time a fighter would need to be 110% ready to fight again coming off an ACL. Aspinall’s recovery and performance will be scrutinized by the whole of the MMA community so it’s important for the young man to arrive prepared and ready for the firmest test of his career.

Aspinall if on his game is a deft moving, athletic, black belt in BJJ himself.

In fact, Aspinall’s dad is a black belt so mixed martial arts are what Aspinall was born into and we can only surmise that his preparation for this fight has him ready to perform.

I do have several questions in this fight though.

How does Aspinall move and maneuver especially early when he has been so lethal prior to this setback?

Will he be hesitant to fire, engage or initiate?

Can Tybura back Aspinall up and force the clinch and force Aspinall to hurl leverage and pressure on that injured leg?

Should Tybura force this fight to the floor and even gain top position, will he be able to hold authority over Aspinall who is trained with similar BJJ weaponry than he?

And the most important question which is critical to Tybura’s chances, what happens should Tybura be able to take this fight past two rounds?

Aspinall’s fought into the second round in only one of his last several bouts. It’s logical that Aspinall will try to finish his opponent early but what happens if he cannot get the durable tough Polish pugilist out of there in the first ten minutes?

For Tybura, it’s about taking Aspinall into the second round then deeper. Tybura must deploy forward pressure and use his durability to force Aspinall to defend, toil, then ideally tire.

Tybura knows his best opportunity in this fight outside of a flash spinning kick or KO of some form, is to force Aspinall to fight past the second round and take him where he has not been before. There Tybura may be able to test the Englishman’s cardio, his knee and ultimately his will.

Total in this fight: 1.5 Under -175

Lean Over

Chris Duncan -145 vs. Yanal Ashmouz +120 Lightweight (155lbs)

Each of these combatants were featured on the last London event. Each won their respective bouts.

While the short, squat Israeli Ashmouz proved to be explosive and powerful, the taller, longer Scotsman Duncan performed like an athlete that needs to develop some wrestling ability, refine his strike defense and increase his cardio.

It’s dangerous to consider positioning against a local European athlete competing in London town but in this case, I feel that Ashmouz, a fighter best judged by his abilities as opposed to his physique is in a strong position to soften Duncan’s body early then touch him up later in the fifteen-minute fight.

Ashmouz +130

Props later this week may prove interesting especially based on the total price below.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -175

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov: Like Grant through Ismagulov!

Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov!

This week I’m posting ‘Bout Business Podcast UFC releases on the GabLou.com webpage as backup because I am unable to complete the podcast today.

Last week we enjoyed a banner result profiting 4.77u.

2023 profitability stands: 50-47 +14.98u 15% ROI

Both Topuria -330 and Allen -215 delivered on the second legs of parlays. We had each fighter in underdog positions.

I will be very aggressive moving forward in scouring for parlay positions that are set up between a couple of different fight cards. I like how that works for us.

Speaking of that, we lost the Della Madellena vs. Brady bout. Therefore our 1.0u +123 outlay becomes a simple win returning .48u. I’ll use the .48 profit on this card since those wagers are all now graded.

That leaves Covington -110 and Alexa Grasso +195 as our sole future positions along with the Randy Brown/Jalin Turner +111 parlay that will mature next week after that fight.

Ok here’s this week’s releases:

Round 1

Ivana Petrovic -215 vs. Luana Carolina +175

Carolina is a long tall Brazilian striking based fighter who packs little power and produces little by way of volume in her attack. It’s usual that Carolina is fending off incoming pressure from wrestlers/grapplers who understand that the way to defeat Carolina is to get her on her back where she is unable to get up or defend herself.

In debuting fighter Ivana Petrovic we have the exact form of fight style that is designed to give Carolina fits. In fact, I really view this as a set up fight designed to make Petrovic look good.

Petrovic -215/Moreno -195 +121 1u

Leg 2 of the parlay is Brandon Moreno -195. Moreno is on next week’s fight card.

Round 2:

Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 vs. Kevin Lee +180

Rinat’s an authentic Russian vice grip, but he’s stepping up in class for this bout. Kevin Lee’s going to be a desperate fighter who knows he’s been set in with someone the organization wants to test him with.

This is a fight that in his first stint in the UFC would be too much for lee at 170lbs. Now, I don’t think it is, in fact, I like Lee in this spot.

Lee +180 .6u

Lee decision +340 .4u

Round 3

Ismael Bonfin -320 vs. Benoit St. Denis +260

Bonfin is an explosive Brazilian hand grenade. He’s short, stocky, explosive, powerful and primarily a striker. In this one St. Denis, who is getting appropriate credit for showing toughness in a previous bout against Elizeo dos Santos is NOT getting enough credit for his power striking, size, his grappling advantage and the way he enters this bout off two UFC wins.

Key to this fight will be St. Denis surviving the first round then being able to inflict his size and grappling onto the inflated but most dangerous Bonfin brother.

St. Denis +260 .5u

Round 4

Morales -260 vs. Max Griffin +215

Morales a tall, powerful, twenty-year old Ecuadorian enters this fight looking to keep his momentum rolling. Morales coming off contender series, has two first round finishes entering this his third UFC bout.

Morales steps up in this fight, one that I view similarly to the Rinat and Lee bout.

Morales has shown great talent and ability but, in a situation, where he steps up in class considerably against a fighter as capable as Griffin forces me to have to make Mr. Morales prove to me that he is up for this much increase in the ability of his foe.

Griffin is pissed and he took his anger on this matchup (he saw this match-up as it is, a potential set-up fight for Morales) in training. He’s focused on making sure the UFC understands his abilities after the results of this bout are completed.

I like Griffin here because I believe I’ll get his absolute best effort and he’s the more versed well-rounded athlete and I believe we’ll see some wrestling from him.

Griffin +215 .5u

Round 5

Damir Ismagulov -105 vs. Grand Dawson -115

I released Dawson +110 earlier in the week when I could see his underdog position melting away.

Ismagulov lost his last bout to Tsarukyan then retired because of health in family issues. A month later, he’s back. Bad sign as far as I am concerned. Then Ismagulov claimed he did not train for Tsarukyan but he has for this fight.

I think Ismagulov is showing some slow regression in his quickness, his crispness in the cage and his ability to defend aggressive forward pressing wrestlers especially.

In Grant Dawson we get an ascending fighter who is displaying great progress with his relationship with Mike Brown and Florida’s ATT.

Dawson is still growing; he’s an unrelenting pressing wrestling grappling machine and I believe he will be able to smother Ismagulov’s space (Ismagulov so wants to be in striking battles) then clasp onto the Russian in order to force this fight to the floor where from top position Dawson can reign damage.

Dawson +110 1u

as released earlier this week

Thank for reading Fight Enthusiasts. Next week we’ll be back on the airwaves but it sure is nice to have the webpage back!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, UFC

College World Series Final & UFC ABC5

Welcome Gaming Enthusiasts to today’s coverage of the UFC ABC5 card which kicks off at 8:30 am followed up by the Championship Series game 1 in the College World Series between Florida and LSU.

The ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for this card.

Access the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage then hit the link to be directed straight to the podcast!

College World Series members hold Florida 10/1 future tickets, all CWS member information can be accessed by going to the ‘CWS’ page.

We’re approaching the end of June which marks the commencement of my NFL research.

The NFL is a specialty for me. any interested parties can check out my NFL consulting page for more information, references etc.

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories UFC

Stanley Cup Final Las Vegas vs. Florida: Southern accents

Stanley Cup Final Game 1 releases:

I’m posting early as I’m out of town and at any time my finely set schedule could get blown up.

I don’t believe Bobrovsky can hold form after nine days off.

It’s more than opinion, it’s what I’ve witnessed over some 45 years of profiting off of puck passion.

When a team enters a series with 4 or less days off, their legs, minds and body’s only know the frenetic pace of playoff puck. AND

when a team has more than 7 days of rest and competes against a team with 4 days or less the team with the abundant rest usually/often looks slow, lethargic and vulnerable in game 1.

That’s exactly what I expect to see tonight. Here’s the wagers…

Tkachuk +750 Conn Smythe 

only future wager remaining into the Final series.

Playoff Series Props; game X/series double:

Golden Knights to win game 1/Florida to win series +400 1u

Game 1 straight:

Golden Knights -130 1u outlay

Player Award:

Jonathan Marchessault, Conn Smythe +700 .5u

 

Today’s College World Series Saturday Regional releases available. Hit the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this webpage for more information…

UFC LV74 releases:

Lins +115

Lacerda -150/Caceres -175 parlay +162

Elizeo Zaleski dos Santos +100

Karine Silva -145

released as future in earlier podcast

Kara-France +105

Kara-France awards Albazi his PhD. in MMA?

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories College Baseball, Hockey, UFC

Stanley Cup Playoffs and NCAA Baseball Regionals

Welcome sports Enthusiasts to a big weekend in both College World Series action as well we have the start of the Stanley Cup Final.

Hardball fans that like to enjoy fit players who hustle on every play, play for a ‘title’ as opposed to ‘money’ need to pay attention to this Tournament.

My futures releases are out and by Saturday morning I’ll update any CWS regional positions.

Note: GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast will be posted on this front page Friday afternoon as I’m traveling.

Last but most importantly is the Stanley Cup Cup Final between Las Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers.

To date puck passion profitability stands:

51-41  +22.90u  29% ROI

All weekend releases for hockey will be found on this front page and those with memberships to college hardball please access the ‘CWS’ tab at the top of this page to learn of any added releases for the weekend.

Swing it Easy!

GambLou

Profitable Sports Gaming

Posted on Author Lou Categories Hockey, UFC

Saturday UFC and NHL Stanley Cup Tournament

Kraken +148 .5u

 

OK puck heads last night I graded the Oil/Leaf Cup fantasy future (L) along with the Toronto series prop bust and the Panther series prop win. The Knights ‘from the goal out’ puck philosophy/performance corralled the Oil to add .72u to our coffers so with the round robin series prop bet’s outstanding and our futures aside we enter today’s puck passion profitably:

34-29 +13.03u 26% ROI

I want that damn Round Robin but that gets settled tomorrow.

Just a few games remain to complete this second round. On deck: The Campbell Cup and the Prince of Wales Trophy!

Today what’s important is getting the Kraken to win on home ice thus sending that series into a 7th contest which insures we not only hit the RR but our Seattle +1.5 -120 game prop placed at the beginning of the round.

They’re dropping frozen rubber at 4pm today. I have the UFC bouts this am at 9am so I’ll work the UFC then post any puck passion positions later today right here.

For my ‘Bout Business Podcast please access the ‘UFC’ tab at the top of this webpage to be taken to the direct link.

Thank you