Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker

Three fight slates remain in the UFC for the 2025 campaign.

This week they travel to Qatar for a Fight Night event featuring fourteen scheduled bouts. The UFC will use the 30’ cage for this event which will be populated with thousands of area fans looking to cheer their Muslim brethren to victory over a highly international set of skilled adversaries.

Favorites now stand 299-148-15 in the UFC this year (64.6%).

Three cards remain and the plan is to close the year down with fervor!

Also, please note: this fight card starts Saturday 7am PST with early prelims!

Arman Tsarukyan -500 vs. Dan Hooker +400 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Arman Tsarukyan is a gifted, durable, imposing mixed martial artist who uses vice grip pressure wrestling to help him overcome his short stature and lack of length.

A power striker who must enter the pocket on opponents to unleash power strikes, kicks and elbows, Tsarukyan chooses to work his way into the pocket then soften adversaries up with a few shots them immediately drag them down to the floor for a flogging.

Tsarukyan’s wrestling is as developed and effective as any in the lightweight division and his striking is complete enough to allow him to gain inside position in order to clasp, press and floor opponents.

Tsarukyan’s striking while power based, is also a great weapon for him as he realizes a +1.98 significant strike advantage while still being able to floor anyone in the lightweight division. His take down defense is world class and his aggression coupled with his developed fight arsenal make him a legitimate elite talent in the division.

Tsarukyan missed weight in his title opportunity against Islam Makhachev this past January which did not endear him to the UFC brass to say the least. This is why he has been shelved for some nine month’s awaiting a fight.

In Australian Dan Hooker Tsarukan takes on one of the few fighters in the division who is undaunted by his name, his fight game, and his wrestling heavy aggression.

Hooker, now thirty-five is not nearly the wrestler Tsarukyan is, but he is quite experienced in the UFC, he’ll be the taller man by five inches and will sport a three-inch reach advantage over the forward pressing wrestler from Armenia.

Hooker’s kickboxing is elite as well he is decorated with a black belt in BJJ. Hooker enters this firefight after earning victory in his last three fights. The last two against top ranked lightweights in which he earned split decision victories.

In his last win, Hooker defeated one Mateusz Gamrot who’s size, strength, aggression, wrestling ability and body type are almost exactly the same as Tsarukyan’s. He just does not possess the striking power that Tsarukyan totes into any fight.

I cannot think of a better precursor to Tsarukyan for a mixed martial artist than Gamrot. I consider Hooker ready, able, and more than willing to go into this fight believing he can and will win but his age and the amount of attrition he has accumulated over his now eleven plus years in the UFC fighting elite competition has me feeling that he’ll be fodder for his Armenian attacker.

Tsarukyan is the worthy favorite here and I would look to the prop market to find value on the favorite here.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Ian Machado Garry -235 vs. Belal Muhammad +195 Welterweight co main event

Former welterweight champion Muhammad is a world class wrestling based fighter who possesses advanced grappling acumen complimented with unending cardio ability. Muhammad’s conditioning and unrelenting forward pressure allows the former champion to break down opponents via incessant, constant, forceful pressure.

Muhammad’s striking is an area of improvement that he must address, thought Muhammad will tell you he can strike with anyone. Ask Jack Della Maddalena if that is the case!

In actuality and when Muhammad is fighting at his peak, he utilizes his striking only long enough and in order to set up his fighting forte, which is his wrestling.

Any attempt by Muhammad to utilize his striking/kicking as a foundation to earn victory in any top ten UFC welterweight bout will result in him being exposed as he was in his last fight by Jack Della Maddalena. We saw Maddalena was dominated last week by Islam Makhachev who wrestled JDM from bell to bell, pilar to post.

Had Muhammad employed the same wrestling focused tactic in his battle against JDM, it is my position that he would be defending his belt on this card as opposed to having to face an extremely dangerous and highly athletic adversary In Ian Machado Garry.

In Garry we have an extremely well rounded mixed martial artist who is going to realize substantial height, reach and age differences in this matchup. Garry is the more adroit, nimble athletic fighter between these two as well he sports an eleven-year age advantage in this matchup.

Garry’s striking is not power based, but his ability to strike fluidly from every angle and position coupled with his deft footwork allow him to maintain the distance he needs to shred opponents with volume striking with unending volume. Garry’s grappling and wrestling is also world class as he is a black belt in Judo.

Muhammad must employ his forceful, patented unrelenting wrestling pressure to enter the pocket. From inside position, he’ll attempt to clasp onto the long, tall Irishman and commence the clasp, the clinch, and the takedown.

Garry’s style makes that ‘enter the pocket at all costs’ tactic a near impossibility for his athleticism and long, lanky body type coupled with his fluidity of movement make it most difficult for adversaries to be able to cut the cage on him then, even more difficult, back him into the fence to try to clinch him up.

I handicap Muhammad to be made for Garry in this contrast of fighting styles for Muhammad’s success will be founded on his cardio and wrestling while Garry’s advantages will come from his athleticism, well rounded mixed martial arts weaponry, and his ability to make himself a difficult athlete to catch up to let along clock.

Muhammad’s wrestling, his cardio, and the strength of his mentality may see him make it through all five rounds however, Garry’s balanced attack laced with an aggressive, yet evasive foundation make him the legitimate favorite in this clash of fighting styles.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -315

I am of the opinion that this total may move to 4.5 Rds.

This week’s release in what I consider to be another favorite laden fight card:

This week’s wager is a parlay:

Tsarukyan ‘to win via any finish’ -150/Garry Decision -120

1u returns 2.05u

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 321 Aspinall vs. Gane: Bon Appetit!

UFC 321 takes place Saturday from Abu Dhabi UAE.

Fourteen fights are currently scheduled to be waged in front of a full house of area fight fans looking to cheer local and regional fighters to victory.

The large thirty-foot cage will be in use and of the fourteen fights, four take place at 170lbs. or above. Three of those larger bodied brawls will be waged on the main card.

This event features athletes from every corner of the world who will convene in Abu Dhabi to try to earn themselves a victory, some bonus money and for the four fighters in the co main and main event, hopefully a title!

There are six battles where there exists a five-year age difference (or greater) between combatants. A youthful edge of at least five years or more delivers a 60+ percent win percentage to the younger athlete based on UFC fight history. Understanding each athlete’s fight weaponry is critical in predicting fight outcomes as well one needs to be aware of each fighter’s age, and country of origin because the Muslim combatants will be the fighters that draw the support of this Abu Dhabi crowd.

Finally, these fights drop earlier than usual as preliminary action starts at 7am PT with the main card dropping at 11am PT.

Tom Aspinall -380 vs. Cyril Gane +325 Heavyweight (265lbs.) Title Bout

Number one ranked French heavyweight Cyril Gane faces the undisputed heavyweight champion in England’s Tom Aspinall.

This will be the second title opportunity for Gane and one in which the formidable French fighter will look to improve upon his first title opportunity, a loss in the first round to then champion Jon Jones.

The strength of Gane’s fighting is based on his tremendous athleticism which manifests itself in his deft footwork, precision striking/kicking, and his ability to avoid opponent’s strikes.

Gane last competed in December of 2024 against Alexander Volkov in a fight this handicapper and many others believe that Volkov won convincingly only to have the decision go to the Frenchman. Welcome to the UFC being owned by an entertainment company!

In this title fight, Gane will have the benefit of that previous championship experience which will prepare him to compete more effectively than in his first opportunity despite the fact that he arrives here off of a dubious decision win in his last fight almost one year ago.

Gane’s going to require this fight remain on the feet for his fighting specialty is Muay Thai striking which compliments his tremendous athleticism.  Gane’s able to move with great fluidity in the octagon while simultaneously being able to deliver numbing kicks, snappy straight jabs and combinations with great precision and effect. The larger thirty-foot cage here is surely a benefit to his fighting style.

In Tom Aspinall we get an English athlete grounded in catch wrestling and boxing but then at a young age Aspinall discovered BJJ to which he now sports a black belt.

Aspinall’s a true heavyweight when it comes to size/power/might and while he may not be as nimble and fluid afoot as Gane, he is extremely athletic, able to effectively cut the cage on opponents that do move well and in the clasp, against the fence and eventually on the canvass Aspinall has few equals.

Once this fight begins it will be Gane who will try to pick and peck at the incoming English grappler for Gane’s plan must be to keep this fight standing at all costs. No matter what Gane says about his improvement in the BJJ/grappling/wrestling department, make little mistake that his grappling/wrestling ability palls in comparison to Aspinall’s world class mastery.

On the feet this fight takes on a much more competitive tone which is why I believe it will take little time for Aspinall to transition this fight into his desired territory…. the clinch, the cage press then ultimately to the floor for a drubbing.

Gane’s striking and power must be respected here but Aspinall, who has been stiff armed by the repeated evasion tactics of Jon Jones will be pent up enough to use his frustration and focused might to attack Gane and earn victory in decisive manner.

Aspinall’s career has essentially been put on hold as he tried in vain to share the cage with the original GOAT of the UFC a now aged and evasive Jon Jones but now as undisputed Champion Aspinall turns his attention into becoming the most decorated heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC, I believe he has the tools to accomplish this.

Aspinall via domination.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -190

Mackenzie Dern -160 vs. Virna Jandiroba +140 Women’s Flyweight (125lbs.)  title

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight where Dern earned victory over Jandiroba via decision.

Then, Jandiroba was beginning her UFC career and had realized success over mid-tier fighting able ladies, but she struggled beating ranked flyweights.

Since her loss to Dern, she’s rolled off a 6-1 record losing only to Amanda Ribas another Brazilian mixed martial artist.

At her base Jandiroba is a world class BJJ practitioner. Her striking lacks speed, power and precision and is used only to position her into making attempts at the clinch in order to transition any fight from feet to clinch to cage then floor.

In Mackenzie Dern we have another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu savant however Dern’s abilities were groomed since infancy as she is the daughter of BJJ legend Wellington Diaz. When Dern was in diapers her pedigree in BJJ already stood out without mentioning how capable she is now in her prime at thirty-two.

Dern’s striking, once a substantial deficit for her in fights has greatly improved after years with striking coach Jason Parillo and the edge when this fight is on the feet will be hers, so I look for Jandiroba to initiate a grappling contest as soon as practically possible.

Once this fight starts it will be fascinating to see how quickly each woman chooses to fight the other at their forte,’ BJJ. Jandiroba will have to rush to get inside position and force Dern into the grapple. Derm must display athleticism and striking aptitude to be able to fend off the incoming Jandiroba to keep her on the outside which will allow Dern the ability to decide when she wants to mix in some grapple with her striking in order to mix it up on the talented Jandiroba.

Ultimately, Dern’s youth advantage of five years coupled with the confidence of knowing that she defeated Jandiroba before she had developed her repertoire of mixed martial arts weaponry, namely striking will allow her to fold both skills into this fight leaving Jandiroba armed with a singular approach to earning victory in this matchup.

The world class BJJ prowess of each woman’s BJJ may cancel each other out which then forces the more versed mixed martial artist to enlist complimentary tactics (striking) and that ability lies with Dern.

Dern’s world class pedigree and the evolution of her striking game coupled with the fact that she’s competed against a more diverse and respected set of opponents positions her logically as favorite in this fight.

Total in this battle: 4.5Rds Over -125

Jose Delgado -145 vs. Nathaniel Wood +125 Featherweight (145lbs.)

Wood, an Englishman with a world class BJJ base is the fighter in this bout who will sport advantages in cage experience and level of competition faced, two aspects of the fight game I regard as most important.

Wood’s BJJ is complimented by his wrestling/takedown ability and his move up in weight class to the featherweight division several fights ago has seen him realize tremendous returns. He has realized a 5-1 tally since moving on up!

Wood happens to be a smaller featherweight, and his striking is not to the level his BJJ is however Woo has competed against great talent, and he’ll do all he can navigate this fight around his lack of striking ability and toward his wrestling/BJJ prowess.

Jose Delgado is a special talent.

Fighting out of the MMALab in Pheonix, AZ. Delgado will sport dynamic advantages physically. He’s five inches the taller man, he’s five years the younger combatant and he’ll own a four-inch reach advantage arms, two inches with his legs.

Delgado trains with a team of world class competitors, all who compete from 135lbs to 170lbs. So Delgado is cutting his teeth training with world class UFC fighters named O’Malley, Bautista, McGhee, Phillips, etc.

Once this fight begins it will be Delgado who will use his massive size and fluidity of movement to keep Wood on the end of his strikes/kicks realizing that the kicking game may need to be cloaked, as he does not want to give Wood the easy chance to take him to the canvass for a roll by leaving a leg up in the air.

Delgado’s wrestling is keenly developed, and it is worthy of allowing him to compete on par with Wood but why would he engage it a tight close fight when he sports superior advantage standing?

Delgato will be making his first trip out of the Country to fight so there is much by way of fight experience that he will need to overcome while Wood has already indoctrinated travel and its complexities for a fighter into his repertoire, so the stage is set.

An experienced, aggressive wrestler who has been in with the more formidable set off adversaries will face off against a young, large, fast, well rounded ascending athlete looking to make a name for himself off of Wood.

What a compelling bout!

Delgado -145 1u

Delgado -145 parlay to Aspinall -380 1u returns 1.12u

Friday morning first thing the ‘Bout Business Podcast with all my final releases for UFC 321 will be posted at GambLou.com.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!

GambLou

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Vancouver De Ritter vs. Allen: Allen wrenched?

Vancouver, BC in Canada is the scene for this week’s UFC Fight night a production scheduled for thirteen bouts, four of which will be fought at 170lbs. or higher. A large 30’ octagon will be in use and the Canadian crowd, as passionate as any in the world will be out if force to support their compatriots.

Prelims drop at 1pm PST with the main slate at 4pm PST.

Renier De Ritter -195 vs. Brandon Allen +170 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

Brandon Allen steps in on short notice to take Fluffy Hernandez’s position on this main event.

With a background in wrestling and boxing Allen took to BJJ at a young age and developed his skills through amateur fighting and eventually the Legacy circuit as an early pro.

Allen’s grappling is his base strength. He is crafty, determined and once able to clasp onto the opponent, he becomes nasty and enveloping while forcing them against the fence then ultimately down to the floor for a roll.

Allen’s striking is nominal as evidenced by his negative significant strike differential but in this fight he’ll actually have the more refined striking game simply because his opponent is less skilled in the striking aspect of mixed martial arts weaponry than he.

That stated, Allen will be giving away two inches of height and four inches of reach to his adversary not to mention at least ten to fifteen pounds come fight night so any technical striking advantage Allen may have on the feet will more than likely be squelched by the size, length, and aggression of De Ritter.

Renier De Ritter is now four fights into his UFC career. He enters this main event ranked fourth in the division and off four straight victories, his last a dominating performance over former champion Robert Whittaker.

A decorated world class grappler with only nominal striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto Allen and initiate a grappling competition.

In the clasp and in tight quarters is where De Ritter must take this fight in order to win it. De Ritter’s massive size will position him to be in great advantage over Allen once engaged based on his technical expertise, grappling acumen size and world class Judo/BJJ.

On the feet, De Ritters striking is base, there is no snap on his strikes only pawing at this evolution of his game and his ability to evade strikes is in development also. De Ritter will need to transition this fight from striking into groping as soon as he possible.

As strong and confident as Allen is about his grappling he must not allow himself to fall into the challenge of grappling this grappler.

The de Ritter blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for dominating this eighth ranked opponent will be to immediately engage in grappling.

I believe Allen will eventually have to accommodate him and from there it will be fascinating to view Allen’s BJJ and ground game against De Ritters.

De Ritter -195

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -140

Lean Over

Charles Jourdain -195 vs. Davey Grant +165 Bantamweight (135lbs.)

After losing two featherweight fights in 2024 Canadian fighter Charles Jourdain, a mixed martial artist decorated with a black belt in BJJ moved to the lower bantamweight division to try to resuscitate his career.

In his last outing he won his inaugural fight in that division against a journeyman athlete and now looks to add to that momentum by competing against a well more formidable opponent in England’s Davey Grant.

Jourdain’s an inch taller and a decade younger than his English opponent which provides us a glimpse of why the money has moved toward Jourdain the local fighter. Jourdain will be the slicker, faster athlete in the cage and one who uses the switch stance to great effect in this battle as he tries to keep the incoming slugger from Briton away from him.

Jourdain’s primarily a striking based athlete who sports a positive significant strike differential but his grappling/wrestling skills namely his takedown defense is poor, which may be a significant factor in this fight.

Davey Grant does not fight like a thirty-nine-year-old. Grant’s significant strikes per five minutes of fight time overshadow the miniscule ratio of Jourdain and despite the fact that Grant is a decade older, his feet, movement, durability and especially his power are all significant contributors to Grant’s success.

This bout sets up to be waged on the feet but with that in mind I handicap the forceful forward striking pressure and determination of Grant to be more founded and sounder than the volume striking and kicking of his Canadian counterpart.

Jourdain’s tactic will be of the ‘stick and move’ category for he does not want to grapple nor stand toe-to-toe with Grant.

Jourdain opened a -200 chalk then went immediately to pick-em before the market pushed the price on Jourdain back up to its current price of -170.

This fight will be as electric as any on the card. Jourdain’s youth and his fighting in front of his fellow Canadians will provide him certain edge while Grant’s experience, level of competition faced, wrestling and dead power will provide him his advantage.

I handicap Grant’s grappling to be a determining factor in this bout.

Grant +165

Total in this fight: 2.5 over -195

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com, catch all my final releases for UFC FN Vancouver there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC RIO Oliveira vs. Gamrot: A Bronx flail?

UFC Fight Night Rio de Janeiro is a fight card stacked with thirteen scheduled fights.

Most of the fights take on a ‘Brazil vs. the World’ theme as the UFC is always keen on highlighting local/regional athletes when it travels to far away lands.

The organization often places local fighters in ‘favorable’ positions regarding their matchups as the foundation of the UFC’s expansion is to electrify the crowds in the cities it visits in order to seed the growth of its brand in that area.

Fighters in Rio will compete in the larger thirty-foot octagon and in front of a crowd that athletes from Brazil strive to compete in front of while combatants from around the world yearn to compete in front of these hysterical fans because of their knowledge of the game.

There are only four fights featuring the larger men at 170lbs. or above but three of those are heavyweight battles which have the potential to electrify the crowd and put them in the proper mentality to support their local/regional athletes.

Lastly, there are five battles where the youth advantage is five years or greater. Fighters who sport a five-year age (youth) advantage over their adversary earn victory above 60% of the time and that percentage grows as the age disparity increases.

Last week Dom Reyes performed like Dom DeLuise in the octagon and was iced in the first round of his fight in Perth moving digital results to 20-23 +.15u

Time to earn!

Charles Oliveira -120 vs. Mateusz Gamrot +100 Lightweight (155lbs.) main event

Eighth ranked lightweight fighter Mateusz Gamrot arrives to Rio an overlooked and somewhat disrespected fighter.

After a loss in 2022 Gamrot has rolled through lightweight competition until he lost an ultra-close split decision fight to Dan Hooker in Australia in 2024, a fight that could have gone to either fighter based on my scoring of the fight.

Gamrot is a world class pressure wrestler who earned numerous decorations in wrestling prior to transitioning into MMA. He’s credited with a blue belt in BJJ and while his striking is still developing, Gamrot’s able to use his striking to effectively gain wrestling range which allows him to clasp onto opponents then maneuver them against the cage then onto the mat for a mauling.

Gamrot’s abilities are so sound that he is sidestepped by opponents because he is so dangerous in the cage as well he gets overlooked by the organization because of how effectively he uses his dominant wrestling.

The UFC prefers (and bonuses) striking battles where they may highlight vicious KO’s and phenomenal finishes, so Gamrot and his world class wrestling have tasted some discrimination in gaining top five battles because of his wrestling prowess.

Brazil’s Charles ‘DoBronx’ Oliveira is a world class mixed martial artist decorated with a 4th degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and a Black prajied in Muay Thai.

Oliveira has competed against the absolute elite between the featherweight and lightweight divisions and at thirty-five he remains every bit as dangerous as anyone in the division.

Oliveira’s going to be the longer athlete in the cage which will compliment his striking/kicking. I handicap Oliveira to hold substantial advantage while this fight is being competed on the feet for Oliveira’s striking is more speed based, diversity laden and precision founded than almost anyone in the division let alone this vice grip wrestler from Poland.

The interesting facet of this fight will occur when this fight hits the floor for Oliveira is at the top of the totem pole when it comes to BJJ while Gamrot’s wrestling is on the same world class level as Oliveira’s grappling is. That said, Gamrot wants this fight on the floor because he too believes his wrestling is superior to Charles’ BJJ!

To get the opportunity to watch these two roll on the canvas would be a special treat for all UFC fans not to mention that it is my judgement Gamrot MUST drag this battle to the floor to display his dominance because he believes that his pressure wrestling can overcome Oliveira’s world class BJJ.

One of the first mixed martial arts edicts I was taught by a Gracie fifth degree BJJ blackbelt Head Coach was that world class wrestling is kryptonite to world class BJJ.

With that in mind I must trust that Gamrot’s unrelenting forward pressure, his cardio and his deep belief that should he lose this fight, he’ll freefall into obscurity within this division will not only allow him to bring the Brazilian to the floor, but once there he will hold that wrestling advantage and use it to his favor.

Gamrot +100 1u

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds. Under -115

Jafel Filho -110 vs. Clayton Carpenter -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

This fight is another top end Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu talent facing a world class American wrestling savant.

Filho, a Brazilian from Rio, is another world class BJJ practitioner. A Nove Uniao team member, Filho will have the advantage of being the taller, longer fighter in this matchup.

Filho’s striking is low volume and low power as he utilizes stand up only position himself to transition any fight onto the floor for a roll.

In Clayton Carpenter we have a special American wrestling talent who arrives to Rio on the bounce …off a loss.

That loss to Tagir Ulanbekov was a terrific experience for Carpenter for it displayed that he has the ability to be a world class UFC flyweight, but that he must not overestimate his wrestling especially if he finds himself in bottom position.

Carpenter’s wrestling, his cardio and his striking together with his desire to be ‘the actor’ in this fight will enable him to dominate in this stern test in Brazil. Again, as I was taught, world class wrestling is kryptonite for world class BJJ!

Carpenter -110 1u

Total in this bout: 2.5Rds over -170

Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops at GambLou.com

Get all my final releases post weigh-ins there.

Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Investment Intel, Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC 319 Du Plessis vs. Chimaev: Collar tie on Clark

This week’s event is called UFC 319, and it will be one of five final PPV events for the UFC as in 2026 the platform for UFC events will be Paramount and CBS in essence killing the antiquated PPV model for a much more lucrative opportunity. There is much to comment upon here but that will be saved for another time.

Saturday UFC fight fans will witness a terrifically matched main event of Middleweight stalwarts where champion Dricus Du Plessis a South African faces number three ranked Khamzat Chimaev, a Russian grappler who many regard as the most dangerous athlete on the roster.

The fight card kicks off with early preliminary action at 3pm PT, regular prelims start at 5pm PT and the PPV portion of the card drops at 7pm PT.

There are currently thirteen scheduled bouts for this fight slate. Five of those bouts are comprised of men weighing 170lbs. or more so focus on those fights for the higher probability of finishing potential.

There are five fights where the youth advantage is at least six years or greater and two fights between athletes who compete against one another and are at least thirty-seven years old. The geriatric bouts!

Last week my suggested parlay position lost bringing results for this column to 16-18 -.47u for the year.

Let’s get back into the black this week!

Khamzat Chimaev -230 vs. Dricus Du Plessis +195 Champion Middleweight (185lbs.) title

Chimaev is a Russian demolition man decorated with a brown belt in BJJ and considerable wrestling prowess. He fights/trains between Sweden and the UAE. Chimaev hit the UFC like a lightning bolt a few years back, winning fights in devastating fashion between two weight classes, welterweight, and middleweight.

He’s aggressive and overwhelming early in fights and while he has shown immense potential thus far in his UFC career, his recent past has been marred by health issues, inactivity and a lack of legitimate competition in the middleweight division outside of his last victory, a walloping of Robert Whittaker who had been a perennial top five athlete in the division for a decade as well a former champion of the division.

Chimaev’s other two middleweight wins were against Kevin Holland a fighter made for Chimaev, then former middleweight champion Kamaru Usman a welterweight himself who moved up to fight Chimaev and took the Russian to an ultra-close majority decision despite taking the bout on very short notice and travelling around the globe to vie against the young Russian. Tlast October’s defeat of former champion Whittaker.

Chimaev, in previous fights, has shown himself to be complete monster in the first two rounds before he begins to wear signs of fatigue. I’m certain he’s addressed the matter but suffice it to say that this champion is a legit hulking middleweight and he will not tire.  Those glimpses of fatigue from Chimaev against undersized foes like Gil Burns and Usman is a contributing factor to how I handicap this battle..

Chimaev faces elite middleweight competition in this fight and a man with drive perseverance and pride. Without question Champion Dricus Du Plessis is a much more dangerous opponent to Chimaev than anyone Chimaev has competed against in battle and in practice.

South African Du Plessis, a second-degree black belt in kickboxing, he has an unconventional, awkward, uneven approach to his fighting. He is a massive sized man, he is dynamically strong, has great cardio and is as tough and durable as any fighter on the roster.

What Du Plessis is not is nimble footed, slick, fast, or precise with his striking which favors him in this fight for he’ll not need to call upon any of those skills to best Chimaev as Du Plessis will attack the bully and try to steal his will with aggressive blunt force forward pressure.

Du Plessis lives by the adage that ‘every action has an equal and opposite reaction’ so the Du Plessis plan in any fight but most especially in this one, will be to take the fight directly to Chimaev and execute a pulverization of said adversary until he succumbs.

This is a fight that one must watch from the beginning for Chimaev will look to dominate Du Plessis early with his forceful, smothering, grappling acumen and try to overwhelm him, in essence he’ll attempt to drown the champion with the force of his grappling/wrestling pressure.

For Du Plessis, he has little intention of evading and buying time to take Chimaev deep into this fight rather he wants to overwhelm Chimaev in his own strategy, by attacking him from the opening bell.

Yes, I believe Du Plessis will look to bully the bully for this approach has shown promise in the past against the lesser experienced Chimaev especially after the first five/ten minutes of fighting when fatigue begins to creep in and is able “to make cowards of us all.”

Chimaev has had but one fight since October of 2023 and while he has likely improved his weaponry specifically his cardio capability in the months leading up to this fight, his lack of live octagon work in the last eighteen months must be mentioned.

Meanwhile Du Plessis has faced and earned victory in nine straight UFC bouts, four of them title defenses and against the elite of the MIDDLEWEIGHT division. In the time that Chimaev has had one bout, DDP’s competed in three different title defense fights.

Du Plessis’ fortitude, his size, strength, and experience will all be required in this fight against what many inside the UFC and outside of it regard as a legitimate ‘boogie man.’

I sense that the uber aggression and forward pressure of Du Plessis, provided he is able to navigate this fight into the third round, will eventually drain the energy and will from the front running bully from Beno-Yurt, Chechnya, Russia.

In order to retain his title, Du Plessis must execute the best first ten minutes of fighting since his career started because anything less than that form of effort will find him in the clasp of one of the deadliest submission specialists in the UFC.

Du Plessis +195

This line is slowly rising so use patience and catch the best price possible on DDP.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -125

Carlos Prates -245 vs. Goeff Neal +205 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Texan Neal is an accomplished striker who has power in all appendages. Neal, also a purple belt in BJJ, is currently ranked eleventh in a division full of absolute killers.

Neal arrives hot off a win over Rafael Dos Anjos after having dropped a couple of bouts to legitimate, elite top ten talent in the division in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry.

In twelfth ranked Carlos Prates we have a chain-smoking Brazilian gangster who is a black belt in BJJ and an ultra-aggressive striker with power.

Several factors force me to regard Prates as most dangerous in this spot. He sports height, reach, and age advantages over Neal, he’s the faster more dynamic athlete despite the fact that he has a heater hanging out of his mouth at all times save for the time he spends fighting in the cage.

Once the bell rings for this fight, we will see too aggressive strikers, both of whom have been defeated by Garry, approach each other with the sole purpose of knocking the other unconscious.

Neal will be the slightly more compact power striker where Prates will be the longer, lengthier, more diversely equipped striker who will employ a forceful leg attack to numb the sound, determined Neal, and take away his movement.

This fight has every indication of being an all-out stand-up battle that fight fans should not miss. At the end of the foray I believe it will be Prates who is able to walk away the victor more than likely via finish.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -165

Edson Barboza -155 vs. Drakkar Klose +135 Lightweight (155lbs)

Brazilian Barboza at thirty-nine moves back up to his original UFC division Lightweight, for this battle of relevance in the UFC.

Klose, his opponent from Phoenix, AZ. is the legitimate lightweight, but he is now thirty-seven himself and enters this key fight off a loss to Joel Alvarez after having won four straight fights in a row.

Both of these men are lethal strikers Klose with heavy hands and more of a direct approach to battle and Barboza with the more diverse striking attack featuring leg numbing kicking acumen.

This fight has finish written all over it but it’s my judgement that it takes one man more than seven minutes thirty seconds to finish the other.

Total in this fight 1.5Rds Over -200

Friday morning the ‘Bout business Podcast drops at GambLou.com.  There all my final releases for UFC 319 may be accessed.

Thank you for Reading and enjoy the fights!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Fight Night Taira vs. Park: Park sparked?

UFC Las Vegas 108 takes place from the APEX facility where a smaller twenty-five-foot octagon will be in use. Few fans can attend these events now but soon enough APEX will be finished with a facility expansion which will allow more fans to be able to take in these quaint, boutique fight slates.

The main event of this card had not one but two cancellations for the originally scheduled flyweight fighter Tatsura Taira who now fights a short notice replacement from South Korea in undefeated Hyun Sung Park.

Park travels around the globe on short notice to take a fight against Taira but for Taira this is also unsettling because he now prepares to fight a third athlete that he has only days to prepare for.

The short notice aspect of this fight is fascinating for Park must mentally prepare to both travel across the globe then make the 126-pound weight limit while Taira, the beneficiary of a full camp, must prepare stylistically for his third opponent.

I mention here often what a fantastic job the UFC does to keep these forty-three to forty-five fight cards each year held together as these athletes get injured, have visa issues, get sick and on occasion side-step opponents. Dealing with the issues, the personalities, and the egos of these fighter’s day in and day out to keep these fight cards interesting for fans should not be underestimated.

Last week we took advantage of a rare two-unit victory with a value laden Russian grappler in Assu Almabaev who dominated pace in his fight against the up-and-coming Peruvian Jose Ochoa. Almabaev opened -400 and we were able to bet him -110 which is why we upped the investment to two units.

We add two units to this year’s accounting for a 2025 tally of 15-17 -1.32u

Tatsuro Taira -300 vs. Hyun Sung Park +260 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

As mentioned in the opening, Taira takes on Park in a short notice bout for each fighter. That said, it is Taira who is the beneficiary of a full training camp.

Taira enters off a loss to Brandon Royval in which he picked up tremendous amount of experience albeit in a loss but to a legitimate title contender in the division. At 16-1 Taira enters this fight on the bounce and prepared to make amends for his last setback.

Taira is a world class grappler and submission specialist, but he is also a capable striker. His sixteen wins show seven wins via submission, five via the KO/TKO and four decision wins.

That fight against Royval in my judgement makes Taira a forceful figure in the division now based on his fight weaponry, his growing experience, his youthfulness, and his drive.

For the 10-0 South Korean Park, this is a tremendous opportunity to endear himself to the UFC by first, trying to win a battle against a ranked opponent but second and as importantly, to do the UFC a favor by taking a fight across the globe against a highly talented and ranked adversary on short notice.

*As a side note for the UFC to have to settle on the South Korean Park for a fight in Las Vegas, we must understand that there had to be a bevy of local US fighters who said no to taking on Taira in this spot for the UFC.

Park enters this fight 3-0 in UFC competition, but this fight signifies a substantial step up in class because Park has not competed against any gifted let alone world class mixed martial artists prior to this battle.

These fighters are similar in size, but Taira will have height, reach and experience advantages that substantiate his favorite price as I handicap this bout.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Mateusz Rebecki -205 vs. Chris Duncan +180 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Fight enthusiasts best not miss this barn burner!

Polish wrestling talent Rebecki is short, squat, powerful, determined and on the ascent in the division after answering a loss to Diego Ferriera with a most impressive victory over Myktybek Orolbai.

Rebecki who uses his sawed-off physique as a weapon possesses a positive strike differential to couple with his unrelenting takedown success for he averages almost four take downs per round as well he fends off 75% of incoming take downs which is impressive especially after that bout against the most formidable wrestling talent Oralbai.

For the Scotsman Duncan, he boasts close to the same staggering success in both significant strike differential as well take downs executed per five rounds. However, what Duncan has struggled with and something that may well be foundational in this fight is his ability to stop takedowns for his success rate is a paltry 37% which is a glaring statistic for anyone confronting Rebecki.

Duncan, should he be able to keep this fight standing will hold height and reach advantages and I will even give him the striking edge, but he must keep this scrap standing because if the unrelenting Rebecki can haul Duncan to the mat, Polish wrestling dominance will be displayed.

Rebecki opened -221 for this matchup and his price has dipped just a bit. This fight will be determined by Duncan’s take down defense for if he can keep this on the feet, he has advantage, but should this fight hit the floor look for the polish Rebecki to flog the Scot.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -210 vs. Neil Magny +180 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Brazilian Capoeira fighting specialist Elizeu utilizes his stout, compact frame to hurl flamboyant, creative, and yet devastating spinning heels, elbows and knees towards opponents understanding that when one lands it destroys.

The issue for the well versed Zaleski is that he is now thirty-eight and 1-2 in his last couple of UFC competitions.

Zaleski still sports a positive strike differential per five minutes of fight time and when Elizeu lands any shot, the target opponent often crumbles for Zaleski invests tremendous energy into every single one of his strike offerings.

Zaleski can grapple and his take down defense formidable for Zaleski is most dangerous and at his best when competing in a stand-up battle.

For Neil Magny this is a foundational fight. Magny arrives to this war having lost three of his last four which on paper should be a red flag, however we must understand who Magny has faced in these last four bouts!

Sure Magny’s lost to Mike Morales, Carlos Prates, and Ian Machado Garry with a win against ascending welterweight Mike Mallot, but those three losses were to elite killers in the division.

So Magny enters desperate and used to facing absolute killers while Elizeo arrives after having been bullied by nominally talented striker Chidi Njokuani.

Based on Magney’s physical advantages of age, height, reach and level of competition faced I must regard him as being more positioned to compete effectively against Zaleski than the current betting line indicates.

In a fight lined 2.5 Rds. Over -185 I really favor Magny’s changes here to compete effectively wherever this fight takes place, on the mat, against the fence or standing.

Magny +180

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops on Friday morning at GambLou.com, all my final releases for this car may be access there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast Drops Monday?

This week’s UFC slate has been shaken by the loss of the scheduled main event. Once the card becomes official with new headliners and lines are available, I will post this week’s opening line report.

Thank you for your patience but I can’t handicap confrontation unless official bouts are announced.

It’s ‘Bout Business

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

UFC Abu Dhabi: Saturday morning Submissions!

9am PT Preliminary Action drops!

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the VSiN digital breakdown for UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi.

This card from the UAE kicks off at 9am PST with preliminary fights then the main card drops at 11am PST, so prepare accordingly for a morning full of mauling’s.

This Fight Night slate is scheduled for twelve bouts. The athletes will compete in the large thirty’ cage and background noise will be prevalent as a raucous Saudi/Muslim crowd will jam into the arena to take in the violence.

There is but one woman’s fight on this card which is notable because it is a rarity to get a female fight when the organization travels to the UAE.

Six of our twelve bouts feature men weighing 170lbs and above and if the trend of the last couple of weeks remains intact, then this card too should produce a flurry of frenetic finishes.

There are fewer aged athletes participating in this week’s slate than in the past couple of fight cards as there are but four fighters aged thirty-five and above. Further, the age spreads on this card have tightened considerably as there are only three fights where there exists an age gap larger than five years…. Again, six years’ youth advantage equates to a 64%-win percentage in the UFC fight enthusiasts.

Last week I captured excellent value in the Dan Ige -175 release as he closed -220 however capturing the best of the number is but one aspect of realizing bottom line profitability in sports gaming. The most important aspect however is having the appropriated fighter perform at their best. While Ige performed well, his opponent performed better and earned victory.

Such is the fight game.

It’s time to make a run!

Robert Whittaker -135 vs. Renier de Ritter +115 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

De Ritter, three fights into his UFC career, enters this main event ranked twelfth in the division and off three victories against modestly talented UFC competition.

A decorated world class grappler with only decent striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto his opponent in this (or any) matchup then begin to envelope them with his strength and judo experience.

De Ritters striking is base, the snap on his strikes and his ability to evade strikes is negligible save for the force by which he rushes into opponents to envelope his limbs around them then drag them to the mat.

De Ritter’s plan in any fight is the singular: press opponent against the fence, clutch opponent to maul them down to the mat then gain top position in order to snap a limb, choke the neck, or play the ground and pound game.

This will be the de Ritter blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for his survival because if he is unable to wrangle Whittaker to the canvas, then he is likely to be pieced up by the forceful punches, kicks, elbows, and knees of Whittaker.

Save for a loss to current champion Duplessis in late 2023 which was an off night for Whittaker, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years until he faced formidable grappling talent Kamzat Chimaev in his last battle.

Against the world class grappling pressure applied by Chimaev, Whittaker looked lost and overwhelmed and in short time Chimaev grounded Whittaker then ‘neck cranked’ him into submission.

When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from de Ritter because it is a surety that de Ritter has studied that Chimaev vs. Whittaker tape.

De Ritter will take every measure he can to duplicate Chimaev’s diligent forward pressing aggression, his takedown effectiveness, and submission prowess in order to negate Whittaker’s striking dominance while simultaneously forcing the striker to expend energy defending takedowns as opposed to lighting up the Dutchman with his dukes.

The foundation question for this fight is simply this: Can Whittaker stop the groundings and keep this fight on the feet?

Where this bout takes place will be absolutely proportionate to who is in control for on the feet de Ritter will have little for Whittaker and on the ground in a grovel it will be difficult for Whittaker to compete with the elite grappling talent that is Renier de Ritter despite the fact that Whittaker’s wrestling is competent.

Whittaker opened -180 for this fight and the money to date has flowed in on the challenger.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds pick-em

Shara Magomedov -300 vs. Marc Andre’ Barriault +250 Middleweight (185lbs)

Magomedov is a Dagestani fighter who lost an eye sometime during his fighting career. He is a wildly popular fighter in the Muslim world, and I say that because he seems to be unable to compete outside of his home country for reasons not pertinent to this column.

When he does compete it is usually against an opponent hand chosen and designed to provide him with the type of fight that fans wish to see, a stand-up battle.

In Magomedov’s last bout they gave him an athletic, fleet footed and experienced striker in Michael Page and Page painted the slower, more deliberate Magomedov’s fence in a one-sided decision.

Stand up fights provide Magomedov not only a fight he can compete in but one he is likely to win for Magomedov himself is relatively slow, he is susceptible to left hands/kicks because his right eye is the nonfunctioning orbital and he can gas as the fight wears on.

He just needs pedestrian competition for anyone close to elite will paint this man’s fence.

While Magomedov’s appearance makes him look ominous, his fight arsenal scares few competent athletes in the division.

For this fight, the UFC hand-picked a large, slow, hittable fellow striker to compete against Magomedov and that fighter’s name is Canadian ship in Marc-Andre’ Barriault an athlete willing to share the cage with the local favorite and try to springboard up the rankings by earning victory over the local Dagestani fighter.

Barriault, primarily a durable, tough power striker who carries a blue belt in BJJ into his fights arrives to this battle off a win against Brazilian Bruno Silva after having dropped his last three bouts.

Two of those losses were via the KO so it seems clear to me that in this matchup the UFC designed this confrontation to both provide Magomedov with a favorable opponent but an opponent that is relatively stationary and one that will be there for him to batter much to the delight of the Muslim crowd in attendance.

This seems a clear example of a set up fight for Magomedov.

Total in this fight stands 1.5Rds Over -160

Asu Almabaev -110 vs. Jose Ochoa -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Ochoa, a power striker from Peru is 1-1 in the UFC. He is aggressive, athletic, and willing to enter the firestorm for striking exchanges at any time.

He is undefeated save for a decision loss to Lone’er Kavanagh, his debut fight into the UFC. Ochoa followed that loss with a very impressive finish win over the durable Cody Durden in his last bout.

In Almabaev we have a talented world class grappler/wrestler from Kazakhstan. Almabaev is well equipped on the feet, and his well-rounded fight arsenal sets him up to be a viable contender in the division for years to come.

Entering this fight off a loss to Manuel Kape is no embarrassment for Almabaev rather it is a badge of honor for Kape, when he competes like he did in his battle against Almabaev, is clearly the top threat to current champion Alexandre Pantoja.

When this fight opened it was Almabaev who came the -400 chalk and while that is a high number the fact that he was favored is what we need to take from the opener.

In fleeting time Ochoa was bet and bet hard into the current pricing on this fight which stands at pick-em.

Ochoa’s striking is stellar, and his strike defense is also above par but his wrestling and especially his take down defense stands at 66% which is quite lacking especially given the competition he has faced.

In this fight it is my judgement that Almabaev will navigate Ochoa into the second round and beyond by mixing in takedowns and effective striking. He will journey the twenty-four-year-old into the later minutes of this fight where his wrestling acumen and cardio will be able to turn the tides on the frontrunning Peruvian puncher.

The value on Almabaev who had decimated four opponents prior to fighting Kape is too much for me to overlook here. Ochoa is ripe and Almabaev has too much experience and wrestling ability for this fight to be lined as it is.

Almabaev -110 2u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

On Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop only at GambLou.com. Get my final releases for the card there and thank you for reading.

Enjoy the fights from Abu Dhabi!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

Posted on Author Lou Categories Profitability, UFC, Uncategorized

UFC FN Nashville: Insane in ‘the Train’

This week the UFC takes us to good Ol’ Rocky Top Nashville, Tennessee where a scheduled twelve bout fight card, a large cage, and a room full of tuned up Tennesseans will gather to take in what I believe will be one of the most violent cards of the year.

I say this based on a couple of factors.

First, seven of the twelve scheduled bouts are going to be waged at 170lbs and above where power is abundant and finish rates reflect it.

Second, twelve of the twenty-four athletes on this slate are at least thirty-three years old as well this card features nine fights where there exists a greater than 5-year age gap between competitors.

Fighters competing against one another under a four year or better youth advantage win 59.5% of the time according to the information Reed Kuhn has published in his book Fightnomics.

In these nine bouts Saturday the age difference is not just a year or two…. In the main event there is a 15-year spread, co-main you ask? Fourteen years variance. Those are the most obtuse of the nine matchups but suffice it to say many athletes on this slate enter the cage with numeric advantage.

To date favorites in the UFC stand 65.2% which is on the high end of yearly UFC averages… Let us hope UFC 317’s 9-1-1- result is not reproduced in Nashville for my bankroll cannot take that.

Last week we won with Beniel Dariush as he was simply the better mixed martial artist.

Tallison Teixeira -280 vs. Derrick Lewis +240 Heavyweight main event

Lewis is the all-time knockout king in UFC history.

Now forty years old, Lewis is a rotund athlete with little technical fighting ability. He does possess profuse power in his hands, and he compliments that fight ending power with focused ill intent.

He has competed against the elite of the division for better than a decade and separated the majority of his foes from consciousness because for Lewis, it takes but one Sunday shot to end a fight.

Lewis’s UFC experience, cage IQ and raw street fighting tactics are equaled only by his complete lack of appropriate conditioning for the man is fractionally as effective after six minutes of exertion than before.

Lewis lands the same rate of significant strikes per minute as he accepts, 2.48, and of late his ability to take damage after all these fierce competitions is waning rapidly. Yes, Lewis is chinny.

However, at his best and that is how I believe we see Lewis Saturday, he is an effective finisher. The key for Lewis in this fight will be space for should he be able to work from inside the pocket on the longer taller Brazilian then he stands a great chance of imploding Teixeira with any one of several detonations.

For Tallison Teixeira this will be his sophomore fight in the UFC so disadvantages in experience, foes faced, and adversity overcome cannot compete with what Lewis has experienced.

This Brazilian bomber holds many advantages as he is fifteen years the younger man, he is four inches taller and owns a four-inch reach advantage over Lewis in this bout.

Teixeira brings raw finishing ability applied by a youthful, hulking, aggressive, sometime wild strike hurling twenty-five-year-old, but the kid ends fights.

In his second UFC bout he gets a main event placement, steps well up in class of opponent and fights for the opportunity to earn life-changing money, all of which add complexity to this fight.

Lewis is taking note of it all.

So, in one corner we have a mature, experienced, proud old warrior combatant with natural born power. He is going to take the middle of the cage and in initiate a throw down against a willing, aggressive, young, taller, longer, Brazilian Bomber who will do all he can to unglue Lewis.

There is no give in this fight.

The total in this fight of 1.5 -270 Under is appropriate!

Morgan Charriere 250 vs. Nate ‘the Train’ Landwehr +200 Featherweight

WAR

Nate ‘the Train’ is appropriately named. Landwehr is forcefully aggressive in every engagement during his fights. He forges forward with unrelenting will to engage opponents with one single point of focus: to annihilate.

Landwehr now thirty-seven and sporting a lightly negative significant strike differential can struggle with consistency because of the extremely aggressive approach he takes into each battle.

Take one to give one? Landwehr’s surely game.

Landwehr can grapple yes but his aim is to walk opponents down then shut off their lights simply put.

4-2 in his last six bouts, Landwehr enters this fight off a loss but for this war, he competes in front of his hometown which makes Landwehr, a problem for any athlete in any arena, even more dangerous in this spot.

Landwehr’s opponent is perfectly placed to provide the fans a dangerous opponent for their hometown boy.

Charriere is athletic, fleet afoot, able to effectively evade strikes and throws his kicks/strikes/knees and elbows in volume and from every angle imaginable.

Charriere enters this fight in enemy territory off a loss to Nathaniel Wood that was very close and could have easily gone his way. Sporting a negative strike differential, Charriere would do well to maintain spacing against this down bound train because while Charriere’s damage is done with volume striking, distance maintenance and precision placement, the Train’s damage comes in blunt force collision form.

Simply put Charriere will need time to effectively wear Landwehr down with a volume, precision attack while Landwehr’s approach will be to force Charriere into a flat-footed throwdown where Landwehr’s shortcomings of footwork, quickness and cage cutting become muted and his strengths of power striking from the pocket are magnified.

Every fight on this card is designed to deliver violent effects but of the twelve fights slated for Nashville, this one offers the greatest intrigue because of the style each man carries to the cage.

In the end, Charriere will be too fleet afoot, too quick, and athletic for the forceful Train even though Landwehr fights in front of his people.

Charriere -250

We will use Charriere in a parlay

Steve Garcia -120 vs. Calvin Katter -105 Featherweight (145lbs.)

This will be another complete blood bath as both men are lethal strikers and they execute their striking similarly, with force, power, grit, and determination.

This fight is foundational for Kattar, a blue belt in BBJ as he has dropped his last four bouts in a row but to world class competent UFC competition.

Katter is tough, aggressive and a forward pressing boxer/striker with power in his hands, a granite jaw but porous defense as evidenced by his negative 2.02 significant strike difference per five minutes of fight time.

Garcia, a southpaw enters with tremendous momentum. A striker as well Garcia has not seen the third round in his last four fights finishing competition that is sound but nowhere near as elite as the athletes Kattar has had to contend with.

So, Kattar enters fight one desperate hombre and Garcia, the lefty arrives on the shirttails of tremendous momentum. Garcia’s height, reach, and length advantages will set him up well in this striking affair. Garcia’s southpaw attack will serve him well against the traditional orthodox boxer Kattar.

Garcia -120

Garcia -120 to Charriere -250 parlay returns 1.57u

This fight is lined 1.5 -175 Over

The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday morning PST. All my final releases may be accessed there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 

Posted on Author Lou Categories Uncategorized

NFL Consulting: It’s Business!

NFL Consulting: It’s absolutely Business!

2024 was a banner year for NFL Clients though the season was not without its challenges.

After week 6 last year GambLou.com NFL clients were down some 6+ units before turning the results around and finishing the year with a net +15.465u resulting in a 14%ROI.

GambLou.com NFL procedures are different than the other sports offerings in that the NFL is a Super Premium product. Client attention is one on one focused and manicured to the players advantage.

Any interested parties please check the NFL tab at the top of this webpage for details. You may always contact me directly Lou@GambLou.com with questions or concerns and yes I have past year’s results for those wishing to review them.