UFC Las Vegas 108 takes place from the APEX facility where a smaller twenty-five-foot octagon will be in use. Few fans can attend these events now but soon enough APEX will be finished with a facility expansion which will allow more fans to be able to take in these quaint, boutique fight slates.

The main event of this card had not one but two cancellations for the originally scheduled flyweight fighter Tatsura Taira who now fights a short notice replacement from South Korea in undefeated Hyun Sung Park.

Park travels around the globe on short notice to take a fight against Taira but for Taira this is also unsettling because he now prepares to fight a third athlete that he has only days to prepare for.

The short notice aspect of this fight is fascinating for Park must mentally prepare to both travel across the globe then make the 126-pound weight limit while Taira, the beneficiary of a full camp, must prepare stylistically for his third opponent.

I mention here often what a fantastic job the UFC does to keep these forty-three to forty-five fight cards each year held together as these athletes get injured, have visa issues, get sick and on occasion side-step opponents. Dealing with the issues, the personalities, and the egos of these fighter’s day in and day out to keep these fight cards interesting for fans should not be underestimated.

Last week we took advantage of a rare two-unit victory with a value laden Russian grappler in Assu Almabaev who dominated pace in his fight against the up-and-coming Peruvian Jose Ochoa. Almabaev opened -400 and we were able to bet him -110 which is why we upped the investment to two units.

We add two units to this year’s accounting for a 2025 tally of 15-17 -1.32u

Tatsuro Taira -300 vs. Hyun Sung Park +260 Flyweight (125lbs.) main event

As mentioned in the opening, Taira takes on Park in a short notice bout for each fighter. That said, it is Taira who is the beneficiary of a full training camp.

Taira enters off a loss to Brandon Royval in which he picked up tremendous amount of experience albeit in a loss but to a legitimate title contender in the division. At 16-1 Taira enters this fight on the bounce and prepared to make amends for his last setback.

Taira is a world class grappler and submission specialist, but he is also a capable striker. His sixteen wins show seven wins via submission, five via the KO/TKO and four decision wins.

That fight against Royval in my judgement makes Taira a forceful figure in the division now based on his fight weaponry, his growing experience, his youthfulness, and his drive.

For the 10-0 South Korean Park, this is a tremendous opportunity to endear himself to the UFC by first, trying to win a battle against a ranked opponent but second and as importantly, to do the UFC a favor by taking a fight across the globe against a highly talented and ranked adversary on short notice.

*As a side note for the UFC to have to settle on the South Korean Park for a fight in Las Vegas, we must understand that there had to be a bevy of local US fighters who said no to taking on Taira in this spot for the UFC.

Park enters this fight 3-0 in UFC competition, but this fight signifies a substantial step up in class because Park has not competed against any gifted let alone world class mixed martial artists prior to this battle.

These fighters are similar in size, but Taira will have height, reach and experience advantages that substantiate his favorite price as I handicap this bout.

Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Under -130

Mateusz Rebecki -205 vs. Chris Duncan +180 Lightweight (155lbs.) co main

Fight enthusiasts best not miss this barn burner!

Polish wrestling talent Rebecki is short, squat, powerful, determined and on the ascent in the division after answering a loss to Diego Ferriera with a most impressive victory over Myktybek Orolbai.

Rebecki who uses his sawed-off physique as a weapon possesses a positive strike differential to couple with his unrelenting takedown success for he averages almost four take downs per round as well he fends off 75% of incoming take downs which is impressive especially after that bout against the most formidable wrestling talent Oralbai.

For the Scotsman Duncan, he boasts close to the same staggering success in both significant strike differential as well take downs executed per five rounds. However, what Duncan has struggled with and something that may well be foundational in this fight is his ability to stop takedowns for his success rate is a paltry 37% which is a glaring statistic for anyone confronting Rebecki.

Duncan, should he be able to keep this fight standing will hold height and reach advantages and I will even give him the striking edge, but he must keep this scrap standing because if the unrelenting Rebecki can haul Duncan to the mat, Polish wrestling dominance will be displayed.

Rebecki opened -221 for this matchup and his price has dipped just a bit. This fight will be determined by Duncan’s take down defense for if he can keep this on the feet, he has advantage, but should this fight hit the floor look for the polish Rebecki to flog the Scot.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -160

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -210 vs. Neil Magny +180 Welterweight (170lbs.)

Brazilian Capoeira fighting specialist Elizeu utilizes his stout, compact frame to hurl flamboyant, creative, and yet devastating spinning heels, elbows and knees towards opponents understanding that when one lands it destroys.

The issue for the well versed Zaleski is that he is now thirty-eight and 1-2 in his last couple of UFC competitions.

Zaleski still sports a positive strike differential per five minutes of fight time and when Elizeu lands any shot, the target opponent often crumbles for Zaleski invests tremendous energy into every single one of his strike offerings.

Zaleski can grapple and his take down defense formidable for Zaleski is most dangerous and at his best when competing in a stand-up battle.

For Neil Magny this is a foundational fight. Magny arrives to this war having lost three of his last four which on paper should be a red flag, however we must understand who Magny has faced in these last four bouts!

Sure Magny’s lost to Mike Morales, Carlos Prates, and Ian Machado Garry with a win against ascending welterweight Mike Mallot, but those three losses were to elite killers in the division.

So Magny enters desperate and used to facing absolute killers while Elizeo arrives after having been bullied by nominally talented striker Chidi Njokuani.

Based on Magney’s physical advantages of age, height, reach and level of competition faced I must regard him as being more positioned to compete effectively against Zaleski than the current betting line indicates.

In a fight lined 2.5 Rds. Over -185 I really favor Magny’s changes here to compete effectively wherever this fight takes place, on the mat, against the fence or standing.

Magny +180

The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops on Friday morning at GambLou.com, all my final releases for this car may be access there.

Thank you for reading and enjoy the fights!

 GambLou.com

It’s Business

9am PT Preliminary Action drops!

Welcome fight Enthusiasts to the VSiN digital breakdown for UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi.

This card from the UAE kicks off at 9am PST with preliminary fights then the main card drops at 11am PST, so prepare accordingly for a morning full of mauling’s.

This Fight Night slate is scheduled for twelve bouts. The athletes will compete in the large thirty’ cage and background noise will be prevalent as a raucous Saudi/Muslim crowd will jam into the arena to take in the violence.

There is but one woman’s fight on this card which is notable because it is a rarity to get a female fight when the organization travels to the UAE.

Six of our twelve bouts feature men weighing 170lbs and above and if the trend of the last couple of weeks remains intact, then this card too should produce a flurry of frenetic finishes.

There are fewer aged athletes participating in this week’s slate than in the past couple of fight cards as there are but four fighters aged thirty-five and above. Further, the age spreads on this card have tightened considerably as there are only three fights where there exists an age gap larger than five years…. Again, six years’ youth advantage equates to a 64%-win percentage in the UFC fight enthusiasts.

Last week I captured excellent value in the Dan Ige -175 release as he closed -220 however capturing the best of the number is but one aspect of realizing bottom line profitability in sports gaming. The most important aspect however is having the appropriated fighter perform at their best. While Ige performed well, his opponent performed better and earned victory.

Such is the fight game.

It’s time to make a run!

Robert Whittaker -135 vs. Renier de Ritter +115 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event

De Ritter, three fights into his UFC career, enters this main event ranked twelfth in the division and off three victories against modestly talented UFC competition.

A decorated world class grappler with only decent striking acumen, de Ritter, a black belt in both Judo and BJJ will be efficient in trying to clasp onto his opponent in this (or any) matchup then begin to envelope them with his strength and judo experience.

De Ritters striking is base, the snap on his strikes and his ability to evade strikes is negligible save for the force by which he rushes into opponents to envelope his limbs around them then drag them to the mat.

De Ritter’s plan in any fight is the singular: press opponent against the fence, clutch opponent to maul them down to the mat then gain top position in order to snap a limb, choke the neck, or play the ground and pound game.

This will be the de Ritter blueprint for success as well as the blueprint for his survival because if he is unable to wrangle Whittaker to the canvas, then he is likely to be pieced up by the forceful punches, kicks, elbows, and knees of Whittaker.

Save for a loss to current champion Duplessis in late 2023 which was an off night for Whittaker, Whittaker has defeated all other middleweight threats over the course of the last several years until he faced formidable grappling talent Kamzat Chimaev in his last battle.

Against the world class grappling pressure applied by Chimaev, Whittaker looked lost and overwhelmed and in short time Chimaev grounded Whittaker then ‘neck cranked’ him into submission.

When this fight begins, Whittaker will need to guard against the immediate/aggressive forward pressing onslaught that will come from de Ritter because it is a surety that de Ritter has studied that Chimaev vs. Whittaker tape.

De Ritter will take every measure he can to duplicate Chimaev’s diligent forward pressing aggression, his takedown effectiveness, and submission prowess in order to negate Whittaker’s striking dominance while simultaneously forcing the striker to expend energy defending takedowns as opposed to lighting up the Dutchman with his dukes.

The foundation question for this fight is simply this: Can Whittaker stop the groundings and keep this fight on the feet?

Where this bout takes place will be absolutely proportionate to who is in control for on the feet de Ritter will have little for Whittaker and on the ground in a grovel it will be difficult for Whittaker to compete with the elite grappling talent that is Renier de Ritter despite the fact that Whittaker’s wrestling is competent.

Whittaker opened -180 for this fight and the money to date has flowed in on the challenger.

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds pick-em

Shara Magomedov -300 vs. Marc Andre’ Barriault +250 Middleweight (185lbs)

Magomedov is a Dagestani fighter who lost an eye sometime during his fighting career. He is a wildly popular fighter in the Muslim world, and I say that because he seems to be unable to compete outside of his home country for reasons not pertinent to this column.

When he does compete it is usually against an opponent hand chosen and designed to provide him with the type of fight that fans wish to see, a stand-up battle.

In Magomedov’s last bout they gave him an athletic, fleet footed and experienced striker in Michael Page and Page painted the slower, more deliberate Magomedov’s fence in a one-sided decision.

Stand up fights provide Magomedov not only a fight he can compete in but one he is likely to win for Magomedov himself is relatively slow, he is susceptible to left hands/kicks because his right eye is the nonfunctioning orbital and he can gas as the fight wears on.

He just needs pedestrian competition for anyone close to elite will paint this man’s fence.

While Magomedov’s appearance makes him look ominous, his fight arsenal scares few competent athletes in the division.

For this fight, the UFC hand-picked a large, slow, hittable fellow striker to compete against Magomedov and that fighter’s name is Canadian ship in Marc-Andre’ Barriault an athlete willing to share the cage with the local favorite and try to springboard up the rankings by earning victory over the local Dagestani fighter.

Barriault, primarily a durable, tough power striker who carries a blue belt in BJJ into his fights arrives to this battle off a win against Brazilian Bruno Silva after having dropped his last three bouts.

Two of those losses were via the KO so it seems clear to me that in this matchup the UFC designed this confrontation to both provide Magomedov with a favorable opponent but an opponent that is relatively stationary and one that will be there for him to batter much to the delight of the Muslim crowd in attendance.

This seems a clear example of a set up fight for Magomedov.

Total in this fight stands 1.5Rds Over -160

Asu Almabaev -110 vs. Jose Ochoa -110 Flyweight (125lbs.)

Ochoa, a power striker from Peru is 1-1 in the UFC. He is aggressive, athletic, and willing to enter the firestorm for striking exchanges at any time.

He is undefeated save for a decision loss to Lone’er Kavanagh, his debut fight into the UFC. Ochoa followed that loss with a very impressive finish win over the durable Cody Durden in his last bout.

In Almabaev we have a talented world class grappler/wrestler from Kazakhstan. Almabaev is well equipped on the feet, and his well-rounded fight arsenal sets him up to be a viable contender in the division for years to come.

Entering this fight off a loss to Manuel Kape is no embarrassment for Almabaev rather it is a badge of honor for Kape, when he competes like he did in his battle against Almabaev, is clearly the top threat to current champion Alexandre Pantoja.

When this fight opened it was Almabaev who came the -400 chalk and while that is a high number the fact that he was favored is what we need to take from the opener.

In fleeting time Ochoa was bet and bet hard into the current pricing on this fight which stands at pick-em.

Ochoa’s striking is stellar, and his strike defense is also above par but his wrestling and especially his take down defense stands at 66% which is quite lacking especially given the competition he has faced.

In this fight it is my judgement that Almabaev will navigate Ochoa into the second round and beyond by mixing in takedowns and effective striking. He will journey the twenty-four-year-old into the later minutes of this fight where his wrestling acumen and cardio will be able to turn the tides on the frontrunning Peruvian puncher.

The value on Almabaev who had decimated four opponents prior to fighting Kape is too much for me to overlook here. Ochoa is ripe and Almabaev has too much experience and wrestling ability for this fight to be lined as it is.

Almabaev -110 2u

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -185

On Friday morning the ‘Bout Business Podcast will drop only at GambLou.com. Get my final releases for the card there and thank you for reading.

Enjoy the fights from Abu Dhabi!

GambLou.com

It’s Business!

This week the UFC returns to its APEX for LV 106, a fight card that is currently scheduled for twelve fights. Prelims begin at 1pm PT with the main card dropping 4pm PT.

There are only three fights with athletes weighing 170 lbs. or more on this event and while there is little name recognition for many fight fans, we will have athletes competing in this production arriving from Brazil (ten athletes) Ecuador, Scotland, Cuba, Nigeria, and Uzbekistan.

Both the main event and co main event are lined prohibitively in favor of the favorite but there are other battles on this card that I believe offer bettors opportunity.

Last week I dropped the Muhammad/Fiorot parlay losing 1unit. This year’s results stand: 10-13 -3.70u

Michael Morales -750 vs. Gilburt Burns +575 Welterweight (170lbs) main event.

Twelfth ranked welterweight Michael Morales is young, strong, explosive, versed in both wrestling and Judo and has fight ending power in his strikes/kicks.

Morales has soared up the welterweight rankings after decimating all five of his UFC adversaries to date, but this fight represents a certain step up in class of opponent.

Morales has not faced the level of competition that his opponent Gil Burns has, nor does he possess the depth of championship experience that Burns does but what Morales lacks in experience and championship savvy he makes up for with an explosive, violent fighting arsenal.

In Gil Burns we have a thirty-eight-year-old Brazilian warrior decorated handsomely with a third-degree black belt in BJJ and complimented with a depth of experience catch wrestling and striking compliments of Henri Hooft.

Burns was a world class lightweight athlete who struggled mightily with the weight cut to 155lbs.

Now, in his late thirties he is forced to compete against men much younger, larger, and more explosive than he all advantages challenging for a veteran trying desperately to keep his position withing the division.

Burns mixed martial arts pedigree, his depth of championship experience and the elite level of foes he has faced in his career make him a reasonable barometer for the less experienced but rapidly ascending talent in Morales.

The current price on Morales is a bit too extreme yet it must be understood that while the experience and pedigree land with Burns, the UFC has been allowing younger ascending fighters do their roster cutting for them.

I believe the Burns approach must be to smother Morales striking by rushing into him, grappling/pressing him, and then immediately trying to drag him to the ground where he is more dangerous.

At thirty-eight and after waging war in the UFC for some ten plus years against absolute elite fighters between two divisions, it is reasonable to think that Burns will have his hands full with this dangerous Ecuadorian athlete.

Morales for his part is going to try to maintain distance, remain measured and with premeditation, try to knock the block off Burns shoulders with an array of strikes/elbows/kicks as Morales understands that striking is his advantage and grappling with Gil could prove extremely dangerous.

This total is lined 3.5Rds under -120 currently.

I will look at the props once released for angles on this most obtusely lined main event.

Rodolfo Bellato -550 vs. Paul Craig +435 Light heavyweight (205lbs)

Bellato’s 1-0-1 in the UFC and arrives for his third UFC battle.

He is a chiseled and heavily muscled physical specimen who is armed with superior kicking/striking power.

Bellato’s strength/might must be respected early however, his last fight against Jimmy Crute showed that after a furious first six minutes or so, that Bellato’s tank can be depleted quickly.

Bellato’s offensive fury is evidenced in his 6.21 significant strikes landed per minute in UFC bouts. The issue however is that Bellato is offensive and has yet to refine a strike defense that allows a whopping 6.3 significant strikes against per minute of UFC competition!

In Paul Craig we have a world class Brazilian Jui-Jitsu practitioner from Scotland who owns a submission win over the current champion of the division Magomed Ankalaev.

Craig is also a large man however his body type falls more under ‘dadbod’ than sculpted or chiseled. His striking is inept for this level of mixed martial arts as it is his prowess in grappling/submission ability that has gotten Craig into the organization and onto this fight Saturday.

Fascinating about this co main three round war and the difference in fighter ability is that Bellato will own tremendous advantage over Craig while these men are standing. For Craig, should he be able to ground the Bear sized Brazilian he will not only hold advantage, but he will likely submit the hulking striker especially if the fight gets past round one.

Which man holds the advantage in this ‘styles make fights’ classic?

I lean to Craig.

Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Under -135

Mairon Santos -130 vs. Sodiq Yusuff +110 Featherweight (145lbs.)

On March 8^th Santos was awarded a decision in a fight that he absolutely did not earn against Frances Marshall. We had Marchall in the points handicap thus winning that wager but the straight bet on Marshal as a decent dog was stolen from investors by the ineptitude of the judging that usually rears its grotesque head sometimes unexpectedly during each fight event.

Now the twenty-four-year-old Santos gets the quick turnaround to compete in the UFC for the third time this weekend.

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Santos, who is undefeated brings superior footwork, power striking and high volume to his opponents. Realizing a +1.81 significant striking advantage has served Santos well to date, however the forward pressure applied to him in that last fight from Marshall should provide Santos’ opponent with a simple plan for success in this fight. Forward pressure!

Yusuff is a grizzled UFC veteran of nine UFC battles. He has realized a 6-3 tally during that span and those three losses, they were against elite, top ranked fighters in the division in Arnold Allen, Edson Barboza and most recently Diego Lopes.

Those losses add a premium to Yusuff’s resume as I handicap it because those confrontations with the elite of the division are the foundation for refining one’s overall skills and development as a world class mixed martial artist.

Yusuff strikes using angles to enhance precision. He holds a positive significant strike differential over previous opponents of 1.25 significant strikes per round and the Yusuff strikes are power based. Yusuff is the busier striker between these two and he is the more powerful striker as well.

Yusuff, a blue belt in BJJ arrives off a loss to top ranked fighter Diego Lopes, to which there is no shame. He returns to the octagon focused and eager to jump into the top fifteen of the division with an impressive victory here.

Yusuff is the more complete fighter even though the twenty-four-year-old Santos will hold youth and speed/quickness advantages in this fight.

In summary, Yusuff’s experience, his well-rounded fight arsenal, and the fact that he’s competed against the elite of the division force me to dive on Yusuff as an underdog here like a fumble in the Superbowl!

Yusuff +110

Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250

Friday the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops with all my final releases for this fight card enclosed. Access it at GambLou.com.

Enjoy the fighting and thank you for reading!

GambLou

It’s Business!